Category: Uncategorized

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for two days attending the 2025 Bloomberg Tech Conference in San Francisco, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

June 5, 1661: Isaac Newton was admitted to Trinity College, Cambridge, as a student.
June 5, 1917: 10 million US men begin registering for draft in WW I
June 5, 1968: Sen. Robert F. Kennedy was shot and mortally wounded just after claiming victory in California’s Democratic presidential primary. Gunman Sirhan Bishara Sirhan was immediately arrested. Go to article

World Environment Day…

‘Alien’s language’ problem that stumped mathematicians for decades may finally be close to a solution
The Inter-universal Teichmüller Theory, an infamous proof that has confounded mathematicians for over a decade, has been partially solved.

Ancient DNA reveals mysterious Indigenous group from Colombia that disappeared 2,000 years ago
A new analysis of ancient DNA reveals a previously unknown lineage of hunter-gatherers who lived in what is now Colombia.

An ‘invisible threat’: Swarm of hidden ‘city killer’ asteroids around Venus could one day collide with Earth, simulations show
A new study suggests that unidentified “co-orbital asteroids” around Venus may have the capacity to impact our planet in the future, with potentially devastating consequences. However, there is no immediate threat.

Ginormous planet discovered around tiny red star challenges our understanding of solar systems
Scientists have discovered a giant planet called TOI-6894b, orbiting a star that should be far too small to have formed it. The discovery could further challenge theories of planet formation.

James Webb telescope spots ‘groundbreaking’ molecule in scorching clouds of giant ‘hell planet’
A pair of new studies has revealed that the hellish skies of exoplanet WASP-121b contain silicon monoxide gas, which has never been found in any planetary atmosphere to date.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Paris, France
Visitors look at the artwork Clinamen, an aquatic and musical installation by the artist Céleste Boursier-Mougenot, at the Bourse de Commerce Pinault collection
Photograph: Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters

Colombo, Sri Lanka
A train arrives at a station next to the sea
Photograph: Ishara S Kodikara/AFP/Getty Images

Fitz Roy, Patagonia
‘Smoking Mountain in all its glory.’
Photograph: Guilheme Perodeau
Market Closes for June 5^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42319.74	-108.00
		-0.25%
S&P 500	5939.30	-31.51
		-0.53%
NASDAQ	19298.45	-162.04
		-0.83%
TSX	26342.29	+13.29
		+0.05%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37554.49	-192.96
		-0.51%
HANG SENG	23906.97	+252.94
		+1.07%
SENSEX	81442.04	+443.79
		+0.55%
FTSE 100*	8811.04	+9.75
		+0.11%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.255	3.235
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.522	3.517
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3906	4.3552
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8775	4.8775

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7314	0.7313
US $	1.3672	1.3674

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5654	0.6388
US $	1.1449	0.8734

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3364.60	3334.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.37	63.41

Market Commentary:
“The best way to predict your future is to create it.” — Peter Drucker
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 26,342.29 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.3%.
First Majestic Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 15.5%.
Today, 116 of 217 shares rose, while 94 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 5.7%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.6%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on June 3, 2025 and 22.7% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 5.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.24t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.80% compared with 7.20% in the previous session and the average of 18.48% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 14.9826| 0.4| 35/15
Financials | 9.6275| 0.1| 15/10
Energy | 8.8657| 0.2| 20/18
Real Estate | 1.8803| 0.4| 14/2
Health Care | 0.0221| 0.0| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.2278| 0.0| 4/6
Communication Services | -2.2078| -0.4| 2/3
Consumer Staples | -3.1848| -0.3| 5/5
Utilities | -3.2250| -0.3| 5/10
Industrials | -6.5655| -0.2| 11/16
Information Technology | -6.6587| -0.3| 3/7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted a small gain on Thursday, following on Wednesday’s dip, but failed to reach the record closing levels of earlier this week amid diverging views on the outlook for interest rates and after Canada posted its largest-ever trade deficit.
The S&P/TSX Venture Exchange closed up 13.29 points to 26,342.29.
Among sectors, Base Metals, up 2.42%, and Energy, up 0.45%, were the biggest gainers on the day, with Health Care and Information Technology down 0.63% and 1.09%, respectively.
Reflecting the diverging views on rates, Royce Mendes, Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins Capital, today reacted to a speech from a Bank of Canada official by saying data on the economy and inflation will need to be “somewhat weaker-than-previously envisaged” for the central bank to feel comfortable reducing rates further.
But National Bank cited S&P Global Services PMI data released yesterday that showed Canada “dead last in manufacturing and dead last in services” and the bank expects a resumption of the rate cutting cycle in late July.
For its part, Rosenberg Research noted fresh data today showed Canadian exports fell to the lowest since June 2023 in April, confirming the rosy Q1 picture was a mirage.”
It said when Canada’s GDP surprised to the upside last week it had written that it seemed to be driven by an “unusual” increase in exports, suggesting some pre-tariff distortions.
Rosenberg Research expected some reversion in Q2, and said here it is: The consensus was for a merchandise trade deficit of C$1.5 billion, and it came in at C$7.1 billion as exports fell rapidly.
This would imply Q2 GDP growth sharply below the 2.2% pace in Q1, Rosenberg added.
Rosenberg Research said its remains “skeptical” on the Canadian dollar, especially in the context of yesterday’s BoC decision to pause on rates, “which only builds up pressure for fast cuts later this year.”
A day after the BoC decided to keep the policy interest rate at 2.75%, Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki delivered a speech entitled ‘Reaching out for a clearer view of the economy’ before the C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto.
In justifying the central bank’s decision to hold rates steady yesterday, Desjardins noted Kozicki said the Governing Council relied heavily on private consultations with firms and unpublished survey data.
Kozicki said “firms believed that their worst-case tariff scenarios were much less likely to materialize than they reported earlier this year.”
However, avoiding the worst-case scenario hardly seems like a reason to hold rates steady at the current neutral setting given that the economy is still being hammered by tariffs, Mendes wrote.
Mendes noted that despite consumers receiving a major discount on their monthly expenses from the elimination of the carbon tax, preliminary data released alongside the speech suggest that consumers still see inflation averaging about 4% over the coming year.
He cited Kozicki as saying “firms spoke about their costs increasing, which likely means they will need to raise prices at some point.”
The surveys, Mendes said, do not preclude a rate cut in July, but do raise the bar for upcoming hard data releases.
“Assuming the final readings for Q2 inflation expectations remain elevated, data on the economy and inflation will need to be somewhat weaker-than-previously envisaged for the Bank of Canada to feel comfortable reducing rates further,” he added.
The Kozicki comments came as National Bank said tariff uncertainty is not only dragging down Canadian factories.
It noted S&P Global’s Services PMI for the month of May, in which the Canadian reading was the weakest of all 14 countries whose services sector is covered by S&P Global.
“That’s dead last in manufacturing and dead last in services, leaving Canada as clear outlier in this sample of key peers.”
National Bank added: “Complicating matters, the report on Canada also flags an acceleration in input price inflation and the biggest rise in output prices in a year.
That won’t come as any comfort to the Bank of Canada, who left its policy rate on hold yesterday in light of tariff-related inflation risks.
But while there may be cost pressures that stem from the disrupted trade environment, there are also disinflationary pressures associated with the economic slack that has accumulated and will continue to accumulate this year.
On balance, we’re less concerned about near-term inflation than we are for the health of the economy.
As more data accrues over the next eight weeks, we expect the Bank of Canada to adopt a similar view allowing for a resumption of the rate cutting cycle in late July.”
Of commodities, gold traded lower Thursday on Thursday as the dollar weakened after the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in April with imports plunging due to the Trump Administration imposing widespread tariffs on the country’s trading partners.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down U$24.40 to US$3,374.80 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate oil closed higher on expectations demand is strengthening as the U.S. driving season takes hold while wildfires in northern Alberta cut into oil-sands supply.
WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up $0.52 to settle at US$63.37 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen up $0.47 to US$65.33.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell alongside Treasuries as online squabbling between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk knocked down Tesla Inc., weighing heavily on the megacap tech space.
While equities closed away from session lows, the Nasdaq 100 dropped almost 1%.
Tesla sank 14% as Trump proposed ending Musk’s government contracts and subsidies after his onetime adviser attacked the Republican tax-policy bill.
Earlier gains in equities were driven by hopes tensions between the US and China would ease as Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to further trade talks.
On the eve of the all-important jobs data, an unexpected jump in unemployment claims added to speculation the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least twice this year.
Economists see payrolls rising by 125,000 after job growth in March and April exceeded projections.
That would leave the average over the past three months tracking a still-solid 162,000.
The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.2%.

Corporate Highlights:
* Broadcom Inc., a chip supplier to companies like Alphabet Inc.and Apple Inc., gave a lackluster revenue forecast for the current quarter, suggesting that the AI spending frenzy isn’t as strong as some investors anticipated.
* Lululemon Athletica Inc. trimmed its profit outlook for the full year and projected lower-than-expected sales for the current quarter.
* Circle Internet Group Inc. surged after the company and some of its shareholders raised nearly $1.1 billion in an initial public offering that was upsized twice amid strong demand.
* Brown-Forman Corp., owner of the Jack Daniel’s brand, tumbled on results that trailed expectations while projecting a sales decline for the current fiscal year.
* Kimberly-Clark Corp. has agreed to sell a majority stake in its global Kleenex and tissue businesses outside of North America to a newly-formed venture with Brazilian pulp supplier Suzano SA.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
* Tesla fell 14%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1436
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3572
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 143.73 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $101,936.68
* Ether fell 3% to $2,527.19
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.40%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.58%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.62%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $63.36 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,356.77 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
“A painting is not a picture of an experience, but is the experience.” — Mark Rothko

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
June 4, 1783: The Montgolfier brothers demonstrate the first hot air balloon, with a 10-minute flight that secures their place in aviation history.
June 4, 1942: Battle Of Midway
June 4, 1989: Tiananmen Square Massacre, China: On June 4, 1989, Chinese army troops stormed Tiananmen Square in Beijing to crush the pro-democracy movement; hundreds – possibly thousands – of people died. Go to article

Socrates, philosopher, b.470 BC.
Dr. Ruth Westheimer, b.1928.
Angelina Jolie, actress, b.1975.

Braided gold Viking arm-ring discovered by amateur metal detectorist on Isle of Man
Around 1,000 years ago, this Viking Age arm-ring from the Isle of Man was likely used not only to display its owner’s wealth but also to serve as currency in financial transactions. Read More.

NASA spacecraft finds solar ‘cannonballs’ may have stripped Mars of its water — proving decades-old theory
After nearly a decade in orbit, NASA’s MAVEN spacecraft has, for the first time, directly observed the process that scientists had long suspected was responsible for stripping Mars
of its atmosphere. Read More.

Weed may be bad for your heart, whether you smoke or consume edibles
Smoking cannabis and consuming THC edibles are both linked to impaired blood vessel dilation, possibly through separate mechanisms, a study finds. Read More.

Australian ‘trash parrots’ have now developed a local ‘drinking tradition’
Wild cockatoos in Western Sydney have learned to drink from water fountains — choosing to drink from them even if they have to queue. Read More.

Galactic impact update
For more than 100 years, a collision between the Milky Way galaxy and its largest neighbor, the Andromeda galaxy, was predicted to occur in about 4.5 billion years. New calculations tell a different story.

Copycat cookies?
Snack brand giant Mondelēz is suing Aldi, claiming the grocery chain’s store-brand cookies and crackers are packaged in a way that is “likely to deceive and confuse” customers.

4,000: That’s an estimate of how many fatal unintentional drownings happen every year in the US — an average of 11 drowning deaths per day, the CDC reports.  

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Diamond Beach Emerald Sky by Brent Martin
With a clear night forecast and the Milky Way core returning for 2025, I set out to explore the Great Ocean Road. After a few setbacks – such as getting the car stuck on a sandy track – I almost gave up. However, I pushed on and found a great spot above the beach to capture the scene. The night was full of colour, with comet C/2024 G3 Atlas and a pink aurora in the early hours, followed by the Milky Way rising amid intense green airglow. Despite the challenges, the reward of this stunning image and the memory of the view made it all worthwhile
Photograph: Brent Martin/Milky Way photographer of the year

One in a Billion by Don Pettit
I float in the cupola, looking out the seven windows composing this faceted transparent jewel. While my mind is submerged in contemplation, my eyes gorge on the dim reflections from a night-time Earth. There are more than 8 billion people who call this planet home. There are seven of us who can say the same for the space station. What a privilege it is to be here. I used an orbital star tracker to take out the star streak motion from orbit
Photograph: Don Pettit/Milky Way photographer of the year

Somerset, UK
We visited the town of Wells on our holiday trip through the UK. We particularly liked Vicars Close, which is reportedly the oldest residential street in Europe.’
Photograph: Hans J Förster
Market Closes for June 4^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42427.74	-91.90
		-0.22%
S&P 500	5970.81	+0.44
		+0.01%
NASDAQ	19460.49	+61.53
		+0.32%
TSX	26329.00	-97.64
		-0.37%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37747.45	+300.64
		+0.80%
HANG SENG	23654.03	+141.54
		+0.60%
SENSEX	80998.25	+260.74
		+0.32%
FTSE 100*	8801.29	+14.27
		+0.16%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.235	3.273
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.517	3.548
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3552	4.4537
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8775	4.9810

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7313	0.7288
US $	1.3674	1.3721

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5615	0.6404
US $	1.1420	0.8756

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3334.75	3370.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.41	63.41

Market Commentary:
Never leave to chance what you can achieve through calculation. –Cardinal Richelieu, 1585-1642.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 26,329.00 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.8% on May 21 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.7%.
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. had the largest drop, falling 4.9%.
Today, 123 of 217 shares fell, while 92 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 5.7%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on June 3, 2025 and 22.7% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 5.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 on a trailing basis and 16.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.25t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.20% compared with 7.05% in the previous session and the average of 19.01% over the past month
Index Points
Energy | -50.7901| -1.2| 8/33
Financials | -23.6311| -0.3| 13/12
Information Technology | -16.4334| -0.7| 7/3
Utilities | -10.3196| -1.0| 3/11
Consumer Staples | -8.8562| -0.9| 3/7
Industrials | -7.5663| -0.2| 10/18
Consumer Discretionary | -0.9302| -0.1| 5/5
Communication Services | -0.7245| -0.1| 3/2
Real Estate | -0.3882| -0.1| 5/14
Health Care | -0.0885| -0.1| 3/1
Materials | 22.0811| 0.6| 32/17
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange was down Wednesday after two record closes, as Rosenberg Research said the pace and magnitude of future gains on Canada’s largest stock market “may be slower and smaller” while Bank of Canada warned the economy is “expected to be considerably weaker” in the second quarter.
Not helped by mixed commodity prices, the S&P/TSX Composite Index was down 97.64 points to 26,329.0.
Among sectors, Energy and Utilities were down 1.78% and 1.00%, respectively.
Base Metals, up 1.13%, and Health Care, up 0.69%, are the biggest gainers.
Rosenberg Research revisited its earlier call of outperformance on the TSX and where the trade goes from here.
According to Market Strategist Marius Jongstra a “victory lap is in order” following a plus-12 percentage point outperformance of the TSX relative to the S&P 500 over the past year, and plus-5 ppts for the year to date.
“A trend we first noticed and began publishing about last year.”
Jonstra said while the research team is encouraged by these results, it is revisiting the outlook for this trade.
He added: “The good news is that the prior trend of relative strength has the conditions in place to continue — relative valuation support, better risk premia, looser liquidity conditions, and more attractive dividend yields are some examples.
The not so good news is that markets have awoken to this trend, meaning the pace and magnitude of future gains may be slower and smaller.”
In conclusion, Jongstra said while the team at Rosenberg Research still sees room for the up trend to continue, it added as more investors awaken to the extreme divergence that opened up between the two indices, pushing the TSX to new all-time highs, the pace of gains may slow down going forward.
Meanwhile, veteran economist David Rosenberg published separate research of his own on the big economic story of the day; Governor Tiff Macklem announcing the BoC decided to hold its key benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75%.
In a note entitled ‘Is Tiff Macklem a Deer in the Headlights?’ Rosenberg said “a dovish hold” by the BoC was no surprise, but added the central bank’s work is not done.
Rosenberg said the BoC had looked through the recent uptick in GDP growth to “the pull forward of exports to the United States and inventory accumulation boosted activity, with final domestic demand roughly flat.”
Looking ahead instead of back, Rosenberg noted the BoC added that, “The economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter, with the strength in exports and inventories reversing and final domestic demand remaining subdued.”
Rosenberg said a return to Fed easing by the end of the summer will only help make the BoC’s work easier, and there is no doubt in his mind that the next moves in rates will be lower.
“The only issue is the magnitude, and that should help act as a gravitational downward pull across the yield curve, notwithstanding some of the impediments that are already well-known and priced in,” he added.
Meanwhile, National Bank said its July cut call will be first put to the test on Friday, when the May Labour Force Survey will be released.
It expects net job losses and a higher unemployment rate to push markets toward pricing a July cut, after which the May CPI report will come into focus.
Further out the horizon, National Bank noted markets have consistently priced between 25 and 50 basis points of rate relief this year but it still sees a path to more forceful easing in the second half of 2025.
It highlights earlier comments from the Governor when he explained they are “prepared to act decisively if incoming information points clearly in one direction”.
To National Bank, the data is already starting to point in one direction; towards growing economic slack, and that trend is set to continue.
It expects the overnight target will end the year at 2%, which leaves Canadian bonds attractively priced, both outright and versus U.S. treasuries.
Elsewhere, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, noted Macklem emphasized that the BoC was “proceeding carefully” and would remain less forward-looking than usual.
While he made clear it shouldn’t be viewed as forward guidance, Macklem did indicate that members are leaning towards a potential cut ahead, although this was couched in data dependence.
In Macquarie’s view, most critical to monitor ahead will be the CPI reports, the Labour Force Survey, and Q2 survey data, set for release on July 21.
Looking ahead, Macquarie continues to project three rate cuts of 25 bps ahead.
It suspects these may occur intermittently through year-end with the next cut likely in July.
Of commodities, gold rose mid-afternoon on Wednesday as the dollar fell after a report showed U.S. private-sector hiring plunged last month. Gold for August delivery was last seen up $21.90 to US$3,399.00 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower, falling for the first time in three sessions as an outsized rise in U.S. gasoline stocks offset lower supply from Canadian oil-sands projects threatened by wildfires.
WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down $0.56 to settle at US$62.85 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen down $0.84 to US$64.79.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasuries rallied after weaker-than- expected economic data reinforced speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year to prevent an economic recession.
A contraction in US service providers and a deceleration in hiring drove bond yields down across the curve.
Swap traders are pricing in two Fed reductions in October and December.
The possibility of a move in September increased to over 90%.
The dollar slipped.
The S&P 500 was little changed, with defensive industries like health care and communications outperforming the market.
US activity fell slightly in recent weeks, indicating tariffs and elevated uncertainty are rippling across the economy, according to the Fed’s Beige Book.
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services dropped a touch below the 50 level that separates expansion and contraction.
Private payrolls rose the least in two years.
“Markets are likely to view this through the lens of disappointment on the real growth side,” said Florian Ielpo at
Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
“While this represents good news for the US economy in terms of potential rate relief, the improvement already priced into equities and credit spreads could be challenged by this series of weaker numbers.”
The jobs report due Friday is expected to show that growth in nonfarm payrolls slowed and the unemployment rate remained steady.

Corporate Highlights:
* Dollar Tree Inc. warned investors that its second-quarter profit could be down as much as 50% from a year ago as it deals with tariff-related costs.
* Wells Fargo & Co. finally escaped a Federal Reserve asset cap that has restricted its size for more than seven years, unleashing the firm from the unprecedented punishment in a major win for Chief Executive Officer Charlie Scharf. The bank’s shares surged.
* CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. said US officials have asked for information related to the accounting of deals it’s made with some customers and said the cybersecurity firm is cooperating with the inquiry.
* Circle Internet Group Inc.’s initial public offering is likely to price above the marketed range, after fielding orders for more than 25 times the number of shares available in the upsized deal, according to people familiar with the matter.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1412
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3546
* The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 142.89 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $104,983.01
* Ether rose 0.3% to $2,624.64
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.36%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.61%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $62.78 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,373.67 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Whenever God means to make you great, He always breaks you in pieces first. –Charles Spurgeon, 1834-1892.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

June 3, 1492: Martin Behaim presents the world’s first globe, named Erdapfel or Earth Apple.  It is kept at the Germanisches Natioalmuseum in Nuremberg, Germany.
June 3, 1965: Astronaut Edward White became the first American to walk in space, during the flight of Gemini 4. Go to article.

Jefferson Davis, confederate leader, b.1808.
Allen Ginsburg, writer, b.1926.
Curtis Mayfield, soul musician, b.1942.

Blue-eyed ‘Ice Prince’ toddler was buried with a sword and a piglet 1,350 years ago in Bavaria
The “Ice Prince” burial sheds light on a toddler from a wealthy family who lived around 1,350 years ago in Bavaria, Germany. Read More.

‘It’s like trying to grow a tree in an oven’: Gold mining is sucking the Amazon rainforest dry
Gold mining in the Amazon removes so much water from the ground that it’s too hot and dry for seedlings to survive. Read More.

WATCH Mount Etna erupt: Europe’s largest volcano blows as tourists scramble to safety
Italy’s Mount Etna has erupted in spectacular fashion, sending ash, gas, and other volcanic material high into the sky above Sicily. Watch footage of the eruption. Read More.

Replika AI chatbot is sexually harassing users, including minors, new study claims
User reviews of Replika, a popular AI companion, report they had been victims of sexual harassment. And some of those users claim to be minors, according to a new study. Read More.

Maja Stark wins first major title
The 25-year-old Swedish golfer took home the trophy at the 80th US Women’s Open on Sunday in Wisconsin.

What a grand slam debut!
French wild card Lois Boissan, who was ranked No. 361 in the world, produced the biggest shock of the French Open so far when she ousted American world No. 3 Jessica Pegula in a 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 victory on Monday.
Magnus Carlsen’s outburst
The usually calm five-time world champion slammed his fist on the table in frustration after losing to defending classical chess world champion Gukesh Dommaraju at the 2025 Norway Chess tournament on Sunday.
Megawatt couple marries
Actress Hailee Steinfeld (“Sinners,” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”) wed Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen over the weekend in California. The pair have been romantically linked since 2023.

Rampaging raccoons
A family of furry intruders recently broke into an Airbus factory near Montreal, Canada. Damage included urine and chewed wires.

“Specific to libraries, I will simply say that many people in this country, including me, were raised in libraries, and they’re not just buildings with shelves, they are sanctuaries of possibility.”  — Actress Sarah Jessica Parker on the Trump administration’s decision to cut funding to libraries

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Iceland
‘A remote village church.’
Photograph: Bob Blackburn

Qingdao, China
Wetland covered with Suaeda salsa, a plant also known as seepweed or sea-blite
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Banff National Park, Canada
‘We hiked up to the Rockpile to view the sun rising over the Valley of the Ten Peaks. Words fail to capture the peace, calm and tranquility of the perfect reflection. It was a soul-soothing and truly spiritual experience.’
Photograph: Saradha Iyer
Market Closes for June 3^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42519.64	+214.16
		+0.51%
S&P 500	5970.37	+34.43
		+0.58%
NASDAQ	19398.96	+156.35
		+0.81%
TSX	26426.64	+37.68
		+0.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37446.81	-23.86
		-0.06%
HANG SENG	23512.49	+354.52
		+1.53%
SENSEX	80737.51	-636.24
		-0.78%
FTSE 100*	8787.02	+12.76
		+0.15%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.273	3.226
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.548	3.502
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4537	4.4399
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9810	4.9655

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7288	0.7293
US $	1.3721	1.3711

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5603	0.6409
US $	1.1372	0.8793

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3370.85	3277.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.41	60.79

Market Commentary:
It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait. -Charlie Munger, 1924-2023.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.1%, or 37.68 to 26,426.64 in Toronto.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.2%.
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. had the largest increase, rising 16.0%.
Today, 140 of 217 shares rose, while 74 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.1%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23.1% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 5.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.25t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.05% compared with 7.57% in the previous session and the average of 19.57% over the past month

Index Points
Energy | 46.1242| 1.1| 38/2
Financials | 17.9583| 0.2| 14/11
Utilities | 11.0858| 1.1| 10/5
Consumer Discretionary | 1.6830| 0.2| 5/5
Health Care | 0.6416| 1.0| 3/1
Real Estate | 0.2569| 0.1| 11/7
Industrials | -0.8196| 0.0| 17/11
Communication Services | -4.0246| -0.7| 0/5
Materials | -10.2810| -0.3| 33/16
Consumer Staples | -11.8987| -1.1| 3/7
Information Technology | -13.0260| -0.5| 6/4
Canadian Natural Resources | 13.5600| 2.2| 146.2| -2.8
TD Bank | 13.0200| 1.1| -21.9| 25.5
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 7.9900| 1.1| -32.2| 8.3
WSP Global | -7.6710| -3.0| 100.8| 8.5
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -7.9730| -1.3| -24.1| 49.4
Shopify | -15.2600| -1.2| -44.6| -5.8
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted a fresh record close for a second-straight day Tuesday, even as White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that U.S. President Donald Trump will sign an executive order today to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, with effect from tomorrow.
“The U.S. president will be signing that executive order today, and steel and aluminum tariffs will be going to 50%, yes,” she said, Canada’s CTV News reported shortly before the close of trade, while noting Canada is the largest steel and aluminum supplier to the United States.
Today, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up a modest 37.68 points to 26,426.64, with most sectors higher led by Energy, up 1.45%, and Utilities, up 1.1%.
While investors have been bidding up Canadian stocks in recent weeks, one Macquarie strategist noted traders continue to struggle with understanding what direction the U.S. trade relationships with the rest of world is going in.
While he was referring more to U.S. traders, his sentiments apply to traders across North America.
Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie, said traders are struggling because tariffs and the evolving nature of U.S. trade relations with the rest of the world are seen as the main pivot that determines what will happen to global growth and inflation trends in the rest of 2025.
Indeed, Wizman added, the OECD’s new global GDP growth projection for 2025 was downgraded, to 2.9% from 3.1%, precisely because of the tariff outlook.
Reflecting his words and thoughts, CTV News cited the United Steelworkers national director for Canada, Marty Warren, as saying the tariffs on steel and aluminum will have a devastating impact on Canadian workers and companies.
“We are on the verge of collapse in some places,” Warren told CTV.
“We cannot access the American market at 50% tariffs,” Warren said, adding that nearly 65% of Canadian steel goes to the U.S. market.
CTV News noted Canada exported $15.9 billion worth of aluminum to the United States, according to the United Steelworkers (USW) union.
While most market watchers expect the Bank of Canada to hold the key benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75% tomorrow, there are likely some who see the confirmation of the tariff on steel and aluminum as a good reason for the central bank to move on rates lower on Wednesday and pre-empt any possibility of a devastating fall out for an economy already under pressure due to tariff uncertainty around the auto sector.
Of commodities, gold prices eased late afternoon on Tuesday as the dollar rose despite a forecast for weakening U.S. growth amid the country’s global tariff battles.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down $20.10 to US$3,377.10 per ounce, after rising 1.6% a day earlier.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a gain, climbing for a second day on tightening supply as wildfires cut into supply from Alberta’s oil sands and talks to end Iran’s nuclear ambitions and lift sanctions on its exports falter, even as OPEC+ adds new production to the market.
WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up $0.89 to settle at US$63.41 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen up $1.02 to US$65.65.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks higher as data showed the US labor market is holding up despite concerns about risks stemming from President Donald Trump’s tariff war.
Bonds fell.
The dollar rose.
Just days ahead of the US payrolls report, an unexpected increase in job openings buoyed sentiment.
Tech giants led the S&P 500’s bounce, with Nvidia Corp. up almost 3%.
Energy shares joined a rally in oil.
Earlier equity losses were driven by a cut in OECD’s growth forecasts as the institution said combative trade policies have tipped the world economy into a downturn.
The rise in job openings reinforced the Federal Reserve’s assertion that the labor market is in a good place.
While some economists fear a more notable weakening in coming months under the weight of tariffs, that hasn’t shown up in the data yet, supporting officials’ posture to keep rates steady.
“The higher-than-expected job openings number this morning is a good sign for the economy, as many were worried that the tariff uncertainty was weighing too heavily on businesses,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
The Office of the US Trade Representative has sent letters to trading partners to remind them of an upcoming deadline in negotiations, according to the White House.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he’s “very optimistic” about prospects for a deal between the US and India.

Corporate Highlights:
* Dollar General Corp. surged after increasing its annual guidance, helped by luring more higher-income shoppers looking for deals. The discount chain also said it expects to mitigate a significant amount of the tariffs currently in place.
* Broadcom Inc. began shipping a new version of its data center switch chips that can boost the efficiency of AI accelerators, aiming to take a bigger role in the booming market for artificial-intelligence computing.
* Surging demand for power to run artificial intelligence just prompted Meta Platforms Inc. to enter a 20-year contract with the biggest US nuclear operator, penning a deal that’s likely to be priced at a cheaper rate than a similar agreement rival Microsoft Corp. entered last year.
* Marriott International Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tony Capuano said consumers are still signing up for travel, but just waiting longer to book hotel rooms.
* Victoria’s Secret & Co. said a security incident that caused it to shut down its e-commerce site may hurt results for the current quarter.
* Signet Jewelers Ltd. raised its profit outlook for the full year and lifted the low end of its sales guidance, signaling confidence in the new chief executive’s overhaul strategy and consumers’ willingness to spend despite economic turbulence.
* Hims & Hers Health Inc. said it’s buying privately held telehealth company Zava as it looks to expand its footprint in Europe.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.6% to $1.1369
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3516
* The Japanese yen fell 1% to 144.07 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.3% to $106,307.23
* Ether rose 3.4% to $2,626.12
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to4.46%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $63.33 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,352.85 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Fifty years from now, you’ll want to be able to look in the mirror and know that you did what you thought was right in every part of your life.  At the end of the day, our integrity is all we have.  Guard it carefully. –Jay Powell, Princeton University Commencement speech to 2025 graduating class.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

June 2, 1692: Salem witch trials began.
June 2, 1946: Italy becomes a parliamentary republic after a  referendum, with massive turnout and women voting for the first time.
June 2, 1953: Coronation of Queen Elizabeth.
June 2, 1981: The Japanese video arcade game “Donkey Kong” made its U.S. debut. Go to article.

Marquis de Sade, writer, b. 1740
Thomas Hardy, writer, b.1840.

Physicists capture ‘second sound’ for the first time — after nearly 100 years of searching
First theorized in 1938, heat’s wave-like flow through superfluids, known as “second sound”, has proven difficult to directly observe. Now, a new technique has finally done it, and could be used to study neutron stars and high-temperature superconductors. Read More.

‘I did a bit of a dance’: Detectorist finds gold ‘mourning ring’ engraved with skull and date in UK field
A British metal detectorist discovered a gold band with an engraved date-of-death in Norfolk. Read More.

The closer a volcano is to erupting, the greener the trees around it look from space
Scientists have found a way to monitor volcanic carbon dioxide levels — one of the first signs a volcano might be about to blow — that doesn’t involve trekking up a mountain. Read More.

What goes up must come down: How megaconstellations like SpaceX’s Starlink network pose a grave safety threat to us on Earth
OPINION | Thousands of satellites with incredibly short lifetimes are being sent up into low Earth orbit. When they fall back down they’re fireballs of pollution —
and what doesn’t burn up hits the ground. Read More.

Infamous ‘neutron lifetime puzzle’ may finally have a solution — but it involves invisible atoms
A type of hydrogen that doesn’t interact with light could explain how long neutrons live and reveal the identity of the universe’s dark matter, according to a new theory. Read More.

MLB stars make history
During a rematch of last season’s World Series, New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge and Los Angeles Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani homered at their respective first at bats of the game, becoming the first reigning MVPs to hit a home run in the opening inning of the same game.

Beekeepers to the rescue!
A commercial truck overturned last week in northwestern Washington state, causing about 250 million honeybees to escape. But a contingent of local beekeepers showed up on the scene to help recover and reset the hives.

Ready to return to the Upside-Down?
The official release dates for season 5 of “Stranger Things” have been announced. Alas, we’ll still have to wait a few more months to see if Eleven and her friends triumph over evil.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Winter Fairy Tale by Uroš Fink
Undoubtedly my wildest location this winter: Austria’s Dobratsch mountain. After a two-hour hike through the snow with a 22kg backpack and sled, the stunning views kept me energised. I spent the evening exploring compositions, and this is my favourite: a panorama of the winter Milky Way with reddish nebulae, stretching above Dobratsch. The sky was magnificent, with Jupiter and Mars shining brightly. In the foreground is the cabin, where I spent three freezing hours, waiting for the perfect shot of the Milky Way’s core
Photograph: Uroš Fink/Milky Way photographer of the year

Blossom by Ethan Su
After three years of waiting, the Yushan alpine rhododendrons are finally in bloom once again on Taiwan’s 3,000-metre-high Hehuan mountain. On this special night, distant clouds helped block city light pollution, revealing an exceptionally clear view of the Milky Way. A solar flare from active region AR3664 reached Earth that evening, intensifying the airglow and adding an otherworldly touch to the sky. Together, these rare natural events created a breathtaking scene – vivid blooms glowing softly beneath a star-filled sky
Photograph: Ethan Su/Milky Way photographer of the year

Wisconsin, US
Ash plumes from Canadian wildfires that have been drifting across the Upper Midwest render an evening sunset in hues of orange behind Lac La Belle in Oconomowoc
Photograph: John Hart, Wisconsin State Journal/AP
Market Closes for June 2^nd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42305.48	+35.41
		+0.08%
S&P 500	5935.94	+24.25
		+0.41%
NASDAQ	19242.61	+128.84
		+0.67%
TSX	26388.96	+213.91
		+0.82%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37470.67	-494.43
		-1.30%
HANG SENG	23157.97	-131.80
		-0.57%
SENSEX	81373.75	-77.26
		-0.09%
FTSE 100*	8774.26	+1.88
		+0.02%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.226	3.200
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.502	3.477
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4399	4.4004
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9655	4.9305

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7293	0.7275
US $	1.3711	1.3745

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5703	0.6368
US $	1.1453	0.8731

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3277.55	3312.40
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.52	60.79

Market Commentary:
Mechanical forecasting will never take the place of intelligent judgement. –Humphrey Neill, 1891-1977.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.8% at 26,388.96 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1% on May 2 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 6 of 11 sectors gained; 132 of 217 shares rose, while 85 fell.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.3%.
Fortuna Mining Corp. had the largest increase, rising 11.8%.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 5.9%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 22.9% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.2% in the past 5 days and rose 5.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.8 on a trailing basis and 16.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.22t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.57% compared with 8.08% in the previous session and the average of 20.68% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 153.4592| 4.4| 42/8
Energy | 51.8177| 1.2| 33/8
Consumer Staples | 18.2693| 1.8| 9/1
Communication Services | 6.0193| 1.0| 3/2
Consumer Discretionary | 3.1016| 0.4| 5/5
Financials | 2.4037| 0.0| 12/13
Real Estate | -0.7121| -0.1| 5/14
Health Care | -1.2287| -1.9| 0/4
Utilities | -2.2201| -0.2| 8/7
Industrials | -8.2847| -0.3| 10/18
Information Technology | -8.7150| -0.3| 5/5
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 30.1600| 5.3| -0.1| 51.4
Wheaton Precious Metals | 21.9900| 5.8| -11.2| 55.5
Barrick Mining | 18.4100| 5.8| -5.5| 24.9
Power of Canada | -4.1380| -2.1| 95.7| 16.0
Shopify | -6.0540| -0.5| -48.2| -4.6
Fairfax Financial | -6.4380| -1.9| 29.5| 14.6
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at another record high on Monday following two losing sessions as Canadian investors not only got back into the buying habit again with commodities prices surging as the U.S. dollar weakened following fresh trade threats from President Trump, while economists see less need for another cut from Wednesday’s Bank of Canada interest-rate decision.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 213.91 points to 26,388.96, topping the prior record set on Wednesday of 26,283.45.
Among sectors, The biggest gainers were Energy and Base Metals, up 1.86% and 1.19%, respectively, followed by Telecoms, up 0.97%.
Health Care, down 2.4%, and Industrials, down 0.25%, were the biggest decliners.
Despite the continuing threat of a costly trade war with the United States, Canada’s largest trading partner, The Canadian Press is reporting that the Canadian federal government collected an extra $617 million in import duties in March compared to a year earlier as counter-tariffs against U.S. trade restrictions came into effect.
Separately, The Canadian Press cited Industry Minister Melanie Joly as saying Sunday the federal government is committed to using Canadian steel and aluminum in national infrastructure and defense projects after U.S. President Donald Trump threaten on the weekend said he’ll double the tariff on U.S. imports of both metals to 50% beginning on Wednesday
The resilience has prompted many of those who watch markets closely to say that they now see the BoC leaving the key benchmark interest rate unchanged this week, even in the face of recent mixed economic data.
National Bank in a preview note published last Friday said it expects the Bank of Canada to leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.75%.
In explaining its rationale, the bank said, ultimately, its call hinges on policymakers’ judgement that they can’t be forward-looking.
“If they could be forward-looking (and despite uncertainty, we’d argue they should be), we see it as a clear-cut decision to ease.
But if policymakers are, as they imply, able to only react to the data they have in hand, the picture is admittedly mixed.”
National Bank noted the labor market, which carries a lot of weight, is consistent with further rate relief, but said the inflation picture right now is not giving the green light.
It noted there are also still key unknowns on trade impacts, inflation expectations and fiscal policy which further obscure the picture.
“Really though,” National Bank said, “if the Bank was comfortable holding steady in April when the outlook looked even more troubled, they should be fine waiting eight weeks from here.
The next decision in July will bring more data (to gauge tariff impacts), another Business Outlook Survey and greater clarity on the U.S. trade relationship with Canada (and the world).
We expect that by the time 30-Jul arrives, inflation anxiety will have moderated as economic slack accumulates and dominates modest tariff-driven inflation.
This would tip the scales towards a cut. Further out, our outlook for two quarters of negative growth, an unemployment rate above 7% and on-target inflation is consistent with the overnight target reaching 2% by year-end.”
Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, on Friday said while the BoC will share BMO’s concerns over the employment outlook, “robust” financial markets and “surprisingly sturdy” GDP growth will provide an offset.
Meanwhile, he added, the back-up of core inflation to above 3% will keep the BoC more cautious, suggesting that rates will be held steady at this week’s decision.
“We continue to believe that this is not the end of the line for rate cuts, but we are officially pushing back our timing of those trims, to restart in late July, and perhaps stretching into early next year.
We are still circling the likelihood of a 2.0% end-point for the overnight rate, on the view that policy will need to be a bit below the neutral range amid the ongoing trade cloud.”
TD Bank, in its Friday week-ahead outlook, also noted markets expect policymakers to hold the line on rates, especially with a hot core inflation print in April, the federal election bringing the possibility of stimulus, and some global de-escalation in the trade war since the Bank’s last decision in April.
On the other hand, TD said, Canada’s jobs market is weakening, a narrative reinforced by last week’s payroll data, and domestic activity flatlined in the first quarter.
“As Canada is likely entering a weak growth period, two more cuts are likely on tap for this year, even if the Bank stands pat next week,” according to TD.
RBC too said Friday it expects the BoC will forego an interest rate cut on Wednesday in another close call following April’s pause after seven consecutive cuts, although it added “arguments for a rate cut still remain”.
RBC noted labor markets have weakened, particularly in manufacturing where jobs dropped by 30,600 in April, the largest one-month decline since the pandemic, pushing unemployment to 6.9% from 6.6% in Q1.
It also noted housing markets have cooled, reducing the risk that lower rates would reignite surging prices, and gross domestic product growth has remained positive, although the monthly pace slowed sharply after a surge in production in January.
“However,” RBC added, “the limited data since the BoC’s last decision in April hasn’t been entirely negative.
Our RBC cardholder tracking shows consumer spending held up better than expected in March and April despite lower survey-based confidence measures.”
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose on Monday even as OPEC+ agreed to a third monthly production hike of 411,000 barrels per day in July but failed to meet market rumors reported last week that it was considering an even-larger increase.
WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up $1.73 to settle at US$62.52 per barrel, while August Brent crude was up $1.67 to US$64.43.
Gold was sharply higher late afternoon on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar amid further U.S. tariff hikes and rising safe-haven demand.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $90.70 to US$3,406.10 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rebound in big tech drove stocks higher after a slide driven by weak manufacturing, trade and geopolitical risks.
Bonds fell as the dollar hit its lowest since 2023.
Coming off the S&P 500’s best May in 35 years, the benchmark edged up at the start of what’s historically one of its quietest months for gains.
Nvidia Corp. led an over 1.5% rally in a measure of chipmakers.
US steel and aluminum shares surged on Donald Trump’s pledge to double levies on the metals.
Longer-dated Treasuries underperformed, with the spread between five- and 30-year yields near a level it last closed above in 2021.
Oil climbed.
Wall Street kept a close eye on the latest twists in the trade war, with the US extending the exclusion of Section 301 tariffs on some Chinese goods until Aug. 31, according to a notice issued by the US Customs and Border Protection.
Trump and Xi Jinping will “likely” speak this week, according to the White House.
“We continue to expect market volatility as investors digest fresh tariff headlines and incoming US economic data.
Fiscal worries remain, and geopolitical tensions are heating up,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Meantime, Russia and Ukraine wrapped up a second round of talks in Istanbul that failed to bring the two sides closer to ending the war, but laid the groundwork for a new exchange of prisoners.
Among policymakers speaking was Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who didn’t comment on the rate outlook.

Corporate Highlights:
* Jamie Dimon said his retirement from the top post at JPMorgan Chase & Co. is “several years away,” but the decision is up the bank’s directors.
* Apple Inc. shares have struggled this year, but the iPhone maker offers a “significant” opportunity over the long-term, according to Bank of America Corp.
* Walt Disney Co. is laying off several hundred employees across its film and TV businesses, cuts that underscore the entertainment industry’s contraction is far from over.
* Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. will pay BioNTech SE as much as $11.1 billion to license a next-generation cancer drug, as competition intensifies in an area of oncology that seeks to harness the immune system to attack tumors.
* General Electric Co. is exercising some cost increases to pass on additional charges caused by tariffs, as the world’s largest aircraft engine maker advocates for a return to a duty-free regime that long underpinned the industry.
* Moderna Inc. climbed after gaining US approval for a new Covid vaccine for a narrower group of people, in the latest sign that regulators are restricting access to immunizations under the leadership of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.6%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 1.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro rose 0.9% to $1.1444
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.3545
* The Japanese yen rose 0.9% to 142.73 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $104,501.06
* Ether rose 0.4% to $2,536.47
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.45%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.52%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.67%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.8% to $63.09 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2.8% to $3,381 an ounce

–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Engrave this upon thy heart:  There isn’t anyone you couldn’t love once you’ve heard their story. –Sr. Mary Lou Kownacki, 1941-2023.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
May 30, 1381: An unpopular poll tax sparks the Peasants’ Revolt, England’s first major uprising and a key moment in feudalism’s decline and property rights’ evolution.
May 30, 2011 Germany announced plans to abandon nuclear power over the next 11 years, outlining an ambitious strategy in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima disaster to replace atomic power with renewable energy sources.  Go to article.
1783: First US newspaper published.

Peter the Great, Russian Tsar, b.1672.

Best cameras 2025: Reviewed and ranked by pros.

How many satellites could fit in Earth orbit? And how many do we really need?

Kilimanjaro’s giant groundsels: The strange plants that thrive on Africa’s tallest mountain.

Newly discovered ‘ghost’ lineage linked to ancient mystery population in Tibet, DNA study finds.

Combo of cancer therapy drugs increases mice lifespan by 30% — but anti-aging benefits in humans remain unknown.

Just imagine how fun the holidays will be
Actor/comedian Eddie Murphy’s son Eric Murphy recently wed Jasmin Lawrence, actor/comedian Martin Lawrence’s daughter. “Yeah, we’re in-laws,” Murphy said on “The Jennifer Hudson Show.”

Fewer perks, more profit
Starbucks plans to eliminate one of its top loyalty perks: the 25-star bonus for customers who bring in a reusable cup for drink orders. 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Idlib, Syria
A child working in a rose garden. Growing roses provides financial opportunities for farmers and displaced people in the rural outskirts of Idlib, Damascus and other cities
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

London, UK
Swans, cygnets and geese in Hyde Park
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
London, UK
Manet’s painting At the Cafe (1878, left) on display with Corner of a Cafe-Concert (1878-80) at the National Gallery. They originally formed part of a larger composition known as Reichshoffen, the name of a Parisian brasserie and cafe-concert
Photograph: James Manning/PA
Market Closes for May 30^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42270.07	+54.34
		+0.13%
S&P 500	5911.69	-0.48
		-0.01%
NASDAQ	19113.77	-62.10
		-0.32%
TSX	26175.05	-35.51
		-0.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37965.10	-467.88
		-1.22%
HANG SENG	23289.77	-283.61
		-1.20%
SENSEX	81451.01	-182.01
		-0.22%
FTSE 100*	8772.38	+55.93
		+0.64%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.200	3.205
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.477	3.499
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4004	4.4180
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9305	4.9162

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7275	0.7242
US $	1.3745	1.3808

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5598	0.6411
US $	1.1348	0.8812

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3312.40	3300.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	60.79	61.84

Market Commentary:
Nothing is more amusing than the multitude of laws and canons made in every age on the subject of the interest of money, always by wiseacres  who were hardly acquainted with Trade and always without effect.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.1%, or 35.51 to 26,175.05 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.3%.
Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.8%.
Today, 121 of 217 shares fell, while 93 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 5.4%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.1%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on May 29, 2025 and 21.9% above its low on June 17, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.22t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.08% compared with 7.99% in the previous session and the average of 22.16% over the past month

Index Points
Energy | -29.2442| -0.7| 7/33
Materials | -12.5130| -0.4| 30/20
Information Technology | -7.9306| -0.3| 4/6
Real Estate | -2.5525| -0.5| 8/11
Consumer Staples | -0.6875| -0.1| 7/3
Utilities | -0.3545| 0.0| 6/8
Health Care | -0.1377| -0.2| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.0044| 0.0| 5/5
Industrials | 0.2546| 0.0| 12/15
Communication Services | 3.3843| 0.6| 5/0
Financials | 14.2760| 0.2| 7/18
Shopify | -16.8000| -1.3| 71.8| -4.2
Canadian Natural Resources | -12.0900| -1.9| -12.0| -6.1
Cenovus | -5.7320| -3.4| 70.5| -17.0
Enbridge | 8.4070| 0.9| -27.4| 4.7
Constellation Software | 10.9500| 1.6| 205.8| 11.9
RBC | 15.2800| 0.9| 72.7| 0.4
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for a second-straight day on Friday after running up record highs earlier this week, as one veteran market watcher said the Bank of Canada “would be well advised to get off its derriere” on interest rates.
Not helped by lower commodity prices and a gloomy outlook in Canadian GDP data released earlier in the session, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down today by 35.5 points to close out the week at 26,175.05.
Sectors were mixed, with none rising by even near 1%, while Base Metals and Energy and Health Care were both down near 1.7%.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower for a second day on Friday, moving down on the prospect of surplus supply as the market awaits final court decisions on the legality of blanket U.S. tariffs on the country’s trading partners.
WTI crude for July delivery closed down $0.15 to settle at US$60.79 per barrel, while July Brent crude was down $0.20 to US$63.95.
Also, gold traded lower late afternoon on Friday as the dollar rose after data showed a key measure of U.S. inflation fell more than expected last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down $26.00 to US$3,317.90 per ounce.
Much of the focus Friday was on Canadian GDP data as market watchers looked for an update on the health of the economy given the uncertainty over a potential global trade war.
They were also looking for clues as to whether or not the Bank of Canada would get back on the interest-rate cut path next Wednesday.
David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, said Canada’s Q1 real GDP data had a “strong headline, but showed weakness beneath the surface”.
He noted the headline was up 2.2% annualized, above the consensus for a rise of 1.7%, but this outperformance was offset by a downward revision to Q4 2024.
“Final domestic demand was flat at -0.0% with ownership transfer costs a substantial headwind, a development we had anticipated,” Doyle added.
Looking ahead, Doyle said Canada’s growth is likely to remain subdued due to headwinds from trade policy uncertainty, with this likely to weigh in particular on the auto sector, and a further slowdown in population growth, as well as headwinds to housing activity from mortgage rates resetting higher.
“We see a modest contraction to flat activity as the most likely outcome through year-end,” Doyle said.
For his part veteran economist David Rosenberg published a noted entitled ‘Canadian Economy On Thin Ice” in which he said, in summary, the major point in today’s Q1 GDP report was the modest contraction in real final domestic demand and the “mere” 0.5% growth built into Q2.
Rosenberg noted the monthly GDP showed March coming in soft at +0.1% month over month, and so the ‘hand off’ to Q2 is a “paltry” +0.5% annual rate.
Rosenberg said what that means is the disinflationary output gap is widening again and, as such, the Bank of Canada “would be well advised to get off its derriere”.
After all, he noted, +0.5% is not far off the flat number the Bank had estimated in its first tariff shock scenario in its latest Monetary Policy Report.
“To be sure, not the disaster in the second scenario (-1.3%), but the economy is sufficiently weak to allow the BoC to bring the policy rate down to the lower end of its neutral range of 2.25%-3.25%, which means at least two more cuts are required,” Rosenberg added.
In a separate note entitled ‘Technical Analysis – Global Equity Markets’, Walter Murphy at Rosenberg Research noted the TSX successfully tested important support during its tariff related decline and then rebounded.
It said the index is now on the verge of decisively breaking out above the 25,454-25,876 key resistance range.
“The ability to finish this week entirely above that range would do much to seal the deal and turn the range into important first support,” he added.
In turn, the research noted, a breakout would increase the potential for a challenge of the 27,250 area, plus or minus about 2%.
With that nearby potential in mind, Rosenberg Research said it is important to note the improving weekly Coppock Curve is crossing above its neutral zero line.
“The indicator is on pace to maintain this bullish bias into late June/early July.
This suggests a rally decisively into positive territory for the indicator and a probable follow-through of a breakout to higher highs for the TSX,” it added.
Rosenberg Research noted the Coppock indicator has had a bullish bias for a majority of the TSX sectors since late April.
This majority bullish condition has the potential to continue into July.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Volatility gripped stocks in the last stretch of the month, with the market bouncing from lows as Donald Trump said he expected to speak to Xi Jinping after accusing China of a trade-deal breach.
The S&P 500 almost wiped out a drop that earlier reached 1.2%, notching its best May since 1990.
Action was muted in bonds, though Treasuries headed toward their first monthly drop this year.
The dollar barely budged, while posting a fifth straight month of declines – the longest slide since 2020.
“We expect the markets to remain headline-driven, especially headlines related to tariffs,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.
“As we start to see more clarity on trade, we expect more traditional drivers of markets, like earnings and fundamentals, to lead the way and drive sentiment.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is evaluating building an advanced production facility in the United Arab Emirates, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Gap Inc. tumbled after the apparel retailer predicted a tariff impact of as much as $300 million, offsetting better-than- expected results at its biggest brands.
* Palantir Technologies Inc. climbed after the New York Times reported that the Trump administration has expanded the data- analysis software company’s work across the federal government in recent months.
* Marvell Technology Inc. fell as analysts said the company failed to meet expectations on artificial intelligence.
* Costco Wholesale Corp. posted better-than-expected earnings in the third quarter, a sign that the nation’s largest club chain is flexing its scale and devoted following to navigate tariffs and economic turbulence.
* Ulta Beauty Inc. surged after first-quarter results topped estimates, signaling that shoppers are buying up beauty products despite growing economic concerns.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1354
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3471
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 143.92 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $104,577
* Ether fell 2.6% to $2,573.89
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.50%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3,294.76 an ounce

–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Our earth is degenerate in these latter days: bribery and corruption are common; children no longer obey their parents;
every man wants to write a book, and the end of the world is evidently approaching. -Assyrian tablet, c.2,800 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

May 29, 1453: Constantinople falls to the Turks.
May 29, 1919: Charles Strite files a patent for the automatic pop-up toaster, revolutionizing breakfast convenience.
May 29, 1953: Mount Everest summit firs reached.

G.K. Chesterton, author, b. 1874.
Bob Hope, comedian, b.1903.
John F. Kennedy, 35^th President, b. 1917.

There’s a humongous boulder on a cliff in Tonga. Now we know how it got there. Read More.

‘Unlike anything we have seen before’: Astronomers discover mysterious object firing strange signals at Earth every 44 minutes
ASKAP J1832-0911, which is periodically throwing out pulses of radio waves and X-rays, could be a brand-new cosmic object. Read More.

Giant 85 million-year-old mystery sea monster fossil finally identified
A brand new species of elasmosaur named Traskasaura sandrae has been identified from three specimens found on Vancouver Island. Read More.

The giants don’t need your money
A new campaign is encouraging visitors to the Giant’s Causeway in Northern Ireland to stop wedging coins between the stones. 

What was on the megalodon’s menu?
The prehistoric predator was widely thought to subsist on large marine mammals, but a new study of fossilized teeth has found more variety in its diet.
A mystery of cosmic proportions
Astronomers are trying to determine what kind of celestial object is emitting bright flashes of radio waves and X-rays that last for two minutes and repeat every 44 minutes.

It would be a sin to miss this
Residents of the theater-less Mississippi town that inspired “Sinners” will finally get to see the film. 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Varanasi, India
A boy plays with a football on the banks of the Ganges at Scindia Ghat on a hot summer’s day
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Florida, USA
campground near the Everglades
Photograph: Rebecca Blackwell/AP

Oregon, US
Feral honeybees interact at the edge of their hive behind a fruit processing barn near Elkton in rural south-western Oregon
Photograph: Robin Loznak/Zuma Press Wire/Shutterstock
Market Closes for May 29^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42215.73	+177.03
		+0.28%
S&P 500	5912.17	+23.62
		+0.40%
NASDAQ	19175.87	+74.93
		+0.39%
TSX	26210.56	-72.89
		-0.28%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38432.98	+710.58
		+1.88%
HANG SENG	23573.38	+315.07
		+1.35%
SENSEX	81633.02	+320.70
		+0.39%
FTSE 100*	8716.45	-9.56
		-0.11%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.205	3.245
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.499	3.544
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4180	4.4773
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9162	4.9758

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7242	0.7226
US $	1.3808	1.3838

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5701	0.6369
US $	1.1371	0.8794

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3300.85	3296.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.84	61.84

Market Commentary:
One thousand dollars left to earn interest at 8 per cent a year will grow to $43 quadrillion in 400 years, but the first hundred years are the hardest. –Sidney Homer, 1902-1983.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 26,210.56 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.8% on May 21 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.5%. Eqb Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.4%.
Today, 119 of 217 shares fell, while 95 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 5.5%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 22.1% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 5.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 on a trailing basis and 15.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.24t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.99% compared with 7.80% in the previous session and the average of 23.18% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -50.1130| -0.6| 10/15
Materials | -14.3858| -0.4| 13/36
Consumer Staples | -10.3173| -1.0| 3/7
Consumer Discretionary | -4.2976| -0.5| 3/7
Energy | -3.5691| -0.1| 17/23
Industrials | -3.5166| -0.1| 12/16
Health Care | -0.0343| -0.1| 2/2
Utilities | 1.0179| 0.1| 11/4
Information Technology | 2.4530| 0.1| 4/6
Real Estate | 4.0949| 0.9| 15/3
Communication Services | 5.7837| 1.0| 5/0
RBC | -61.5200| -3.5| 95.1| -0.5
Couche-Tard | -7.4170| -1.9| -28.2| -10.2
Cameco | -5.8330| -2.3| 12.8| 10.5
Suncor | 4.3660| 1.0| 49.4| -3.8
TD Bank | 8.3500| 0.7| -2.9| 24.0
Bank of Nova Scotia| 11.8000| 1.9| 55.4| -4.7
The Toronto Stock Exchange was down for only the second time in 17 sessions on Thursday, as investors took profits after it posted record closing highs on each of the prior three sessions, but losses may have been limited on the prospect of “more rationalized” sector-based tariffs being introduced by the United States.
Not helped by mixed commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 72.89 points at 26,210.56, amid mixed sectors, none of which were either up or down by more than 1%.
While the TSX was lower today, U.S. stock markets recorded gains.
This as one Macquarie strategist noted an overnight court ruling may speed up the introduction of “more rationalized” sector-based tariffs from the United States, while also noting Nvidia’s upbeat sales outlook was also contributing to the rally.
Yesterday evening, with U.S. markets closed, a three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled unanimously the emergency laws President Donald Trump invoked did not give him the unilateral authority to impose tariffs on nearly every country via his reciprocal tariff program, nor his retaliatory tariffs.
“For observers that believed that the reciprocal tariffs were adverse to the economy — in the sense that they would lead to an economic slowdown and higher measured consumer inflation and induced by the ‘tax effect’ on consumers and businesses — the prospect that the reciprocal tariffs have been nullified by the CIT is being taken as ‘good news’.
It has led to stocks being way up today, for example,” said Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie.
To be sure however, an appeals court temporarily restored the tariffs on Thursday afternoon while an appeal is heard.
The bottom line on tariffs, Wizman said, is that while the CIT’s ruling marks a first and significant legal challenge to the use of immediate emergency powers and the invocation of arbitrary ‘retaliation’, the ruling is not expansive as it pertains to executive powers in trade more generally, so long as executive actions address true emergencies, are subject to review, and do not contravene other laws.
“After all, it was evident on “Liberation Day” that the reciprocal tariffs were ill-formulated, overly abrupt, and too aggressive,” he added.
With that, Wizman said, the CIT’s ruling yesterday can speed up the introduction of “more rationalized”, sector-based tariffs, many of which may now be announced, but not yet imposed, soon.
“Because of this, we caution against excessive displays of ‘relief,’ especially in the USD.
More surprises of tariffs certainly lie around the corner,” he added.
For his part, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he “welcomes” the decision by the CIT to strike down President Trump’s broad-based tariffs on most countries.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower on Thursday as rising supplies checked investor optimism after a court blocked most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, though rising supply checked optimism.
WTI oil for July delivery closed down $0.90 to settle a US$60.94 per barrel, while July Brent crude was last seen down $0.82 to US$64.08.
Meanwhile, gold traded higher late afternoon on Thursday as the dollar dropped after a court blocked most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs while the U.S. economy weakened less than expected in the first quarter.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $17.90 to US$3,340.30 per ounce.
Staying on commodities, Rosenberg Research is ‘overweight’ Utilities and ‘underweight’ Energy, as outlined in a market strategy note it published today with a focus on U.S. equities.
“With valuations still stretched and clear headwinds for earnings, we recommend caution from a tactical viewpoint,” it said in summary.
The bullish view of Rosenberg Research on Utilities is derived from the fact that the U.S. power grid is “not ready for the growth in electricity demand and it needs to develop the transmission infrastructure that enables load sharing during periods of peak demand”.
According to the research, Utilities are “undisputedly” the biggest beneficiaries of the sharp rise in electricity demand and are available at a PEG ratio of 1.2x, a level it finds “attractive given the risk/reward calculus at this juncture.”
As a sector highly integrated with the global market, Energy has been a relative underperformer on a year-to-date basis following the April 2 reciprocal tariff announcement that clouded the global macroeconomic outlook, Rosenberg said.
It cited some factors likely to limit the upside to energy prices over the next 12 months, potentially higher U.S. shale production linked to policy shifts by the Trump 2.0 Administration, the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts and an uncertain economic outlook.
Additionally, a protectionist trade policy will likely lead to a firm U.S. dollar, which is a net negative for most commodities, including oil, it added.
“Our bearish view on oil and oil-related equities does not currently factor in a full-fledged Ukraine/Russia ceasefire, which, if consummated, will create more downside price pressure.”
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders cheering solid results from Nvidia Corp. had to face the harsh reality of slowing economic data and legal uncertainties around Donald Trump’s trade war.
The president told Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell he’s making a mistake for not cutting rates.
The S&P 500 pared most of an advance that earlier approached 1%.
A federal appeals court offered Trump a temporary reprieve from a ruling threatening to throw out the bulk of his tariff agenda.
Treasuries rose on bets the Fed will slash rates twice this year and after a solid $44 billion sale of seven-year notes.
The dollar fell.
“We expect further market volatility ahead as headlines on both trade and fiscal policy emerge,” said Ulrike Hoffmann- Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We still expect US equities to rise over the next 12 months, but near-term gains this year are likely to be more limited.”
The US economy shrank at the start of the year, restrained by weaker consumer spending and an even bigger impact from trade than initially reported.
Pending sales of previously owned homes last month fell by the most since September 2022, while a rise in recurring jobless claims signaled higher unemployment.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4%.
The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3%.
Nvidia led gains in megacaps, up over 3%.
Salesforce Inc. reported signs of traction in its new AI products, but that wasn’t enough to ease investor anxieties over a long trend of slowing revenue growth.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. said Newark disruptions will cut into profits.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell five basis points to 4.43%.
A dollar gauge lost 0.4%.

Corporate Highlights:
* Best Buy Co. reduced its sales and profit outlook as the electronics retailer grapples with tariffs on imports from China, its top source of goods.
* Wells Fargo & Co. resolved another regulatory punishment, the seventh this year, as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency terminated its 2015 agreements relating to the company’s previously held financial subsidiaries.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is partnering with defense contractor Anduril Industries Inc. to develop new products for the US military, including an artificial intelligence-powered helmet with virtual and augmented reality features.
* Synopsys Inc., a top maker of chip-design software, suspended its financial guidance for the current quarter and fiscal year after receiving word from the US government about new restrictions on exports to China.
* HP Inc.’s profit outlook fell short of estimates, and it cut the annual earnings forecast, pointing toward a weaker economy and continuing costs from US tariffs on goods from China.
* Walt Disney Co. is expanding a program of perks for subscribers to its flagship Disney+ streaming service and adding one for Hulu customers.
* Kohl’s Corp. reported better-than-expected comparable sales, a positive sign amid a tumultuous run of events for the retailer.
* Foot Locker Inc.’s sales slump persisted in the latest quarter, a potential headache for Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. as it prepares to acquire the struggling sneaker chain.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.7% to $1.1367
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3494
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 144.14 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $105,764.73
* Ether rose 0.6% to $2,651.93
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.51%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $60.91 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,316.34 an ounce

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
It’s hard to beat a person who never gives up. -Babe Ruth, 1895-1948.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
May 28, 1936:  Alan Turing’s seminal paper, “On Computable Numbers,” is submitted for publication. Go to article. 
May 28, 1937: German automaker Volkswagen is founded to mass-produce a low-priced “people’s car”.  The company is originally operated by a Nazi organization.

May 28, 1892: Sierra Club founded.

Ian Fleming, writer, b. 1908.
Rudolph Giuliani, former NYC mayor, b.1944.

Watch mesmerizing 1,000-foot-tall lava fountains: Kilauea volcano erupting in ways not seen for 40 years.

James Webb telescope breaks own record, discovering farthest known galaxy in the universe .

Genomes from ancient Maya people reveal collapse of population and civilization 1,200 years ago.

Earth’s core is ‘leaking’ gold, study finds.

3 ancient Egyptian tombs dating to the New Kingdom discovered near Luxor.

Harry Potter TV show casts its stars
HBO has finally found a trio of young actors to play Harry Potter, Hermione Granger and Ron Weasley in its upcoming series about the magical world of witchcraft and wizardry. (HBO, like CNN, is owned by Warner Bros. Discovery.)

Stop stealing the stones, folks
A city in Belgium is asking tourists not to take a piece of its UNESCO-recognized medieval streets home with them. 
RIP
Rock guitarist/producer Rick Derringer dies
During his six-decade music career, Derringer released the hit singles “Hang On Sloopy” with his band The McCoys, and “Rock and Roll, Hoochie Koo” from his solo album “All American Boy.” He also worked with numerous artists — including Ringo Starr, Steely Dan, B.B. King and Barbra Streisand — and produced “Weird Al” Yankovic’s first six albums.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Hawaii, US
The Kīlauea volcano erupts, the latest in a series since Sunday
Photograph: M Patrick/United States Geological Survey/EPA

Woubrugge, Netherlands
A superyacht, built for the former Starbucks US chief executive Howard Schultz, heads to Rotterdam. The vessel, which is 101.5 metres (333ft) long and 13.5 metres wide, dwarfs the town
Photograph: Josh Walet/ANP/AFP/Getty Images

Rochefort, France
Commuters stand on a nacelle suspended from the metal deck of an aerial ferry bridge to cross the Charente River in western France. The bridge, inaugurated in 1900, was the main crossing over the river until 1967
Photograph: Christophe Archambault/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 28^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42098.70	-244.95
		-0.58%
S&P 500	5888.55	-32.99
		-0.56%
NASDAQ	19100.94	-98.22
		-0.51%
TSX	26283.45	+14.46
		+0.05%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37722.40	-1.71
		—
HANG SENG	23258.31	-123.68
		-0.53%
SENSEX	81312.32	-239.31
		-0.29%
FTSE 100*	8726.01	-52.04
		-0.59%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.245	3.256
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.544	3.549
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4773	4.4436
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9758	4.9511

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7226	0.7240
US $	1.3838	1.3812

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5598	0.6411
US $	1.1268	0.8874

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3296.70	3342.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.84	60.89

Market Commentary:
No one can possibly achieve any real and lasting success or “get rich” in business by being a conformist. –J. Paul Getty, 1892-1976.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 26,283.45 in Toronto.
National Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.8%.
Definity Financial Corp. had the largest increase, rising 11.3%.
Today, 116 of 217 shares rose, while 95 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 5.8%
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 22.4% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and rose 6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 on a trailing basis and 15.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.23t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.80% compared with 7.93% in the previous session and the average of 24.21% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 19.7999| 0.6| 34/13
Financials | 18.8633| 0.2| 14/11
Consumer Staples | 4.3855| 0.4| 7/3
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4397| 0.4| 5/5
Industrials | 2.8333| 0.1| 19/9
Information Technology | 1.1144| 0.0| 2/8
Health Care | 0.4195| 0.7| 2/1
Real Estate | -0.4025| -0.1| 10/9
Communication Services | -3.7511| -0.6| 0/4
Utilities | -5.3222| -0.5| 6/9
Energy | -26.9361| -0.6| 17/23
National Bank of Canada | 13.5300| 3.8| 136.2| 2.5
Bank of Montreal | 11.4000| 1.5| 34.3| 5.4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 8.1850| 1.4| -1.8| 45.0
Bank of Nova Scotia| -6.2910| -1.0| 35.9| -6.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -7.3730| -1.2| 58.9| -4.1
Enbridge | -8.7130| -0.9| -35.2| 3.4
The Toronto Stock Exchange just about posted a third successive record intraday and closing high on Wednesday, buoyed by the financial sector as Canada’s big banks have, thus far in to their second quarter earnings period at least, generally beat market expectations and not given too much cause for concern around consumer and business credit.
At the end today’s session, the TSX was up a modest 14.5 points at 26,283.45, but this was after it quickly recovered from dipping into negative territory in the closing minutes.
The index is now up 15 of the last 16 sessions.
Most sectors were lower, but there were gains for Health Care (+0.36%), Financials (0.22%) and Industrials (+0.1%).
Of commodities, The Wall Street Journal noted gold futures settled the day lower, unable to break out of a negative stretch, with gold finishing lower in three out of the past four sessions.
The front-month contract closed down 0.2% to US$3,293.60 a troy ounce.
Separately, The WSJ noted oil futures rebounded from the previous day’s selloff as the OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting ended with agreement to keep quotas in place through 2026.
WTI settled up 1.6% at US$61.84 a barrel, and Brent rose 1.3% to US$64.90 a barrel.
On sectors and individual stocks, market watchers continue to keep a close eye on second quarter results currently coming from Canada’s big banks, with CIBC (CM.TO) and RBC (RY.TO, RY) next slated to release their financials tomorrow morning.
In a preview note published earlier this month, National Bank said it expected CIBC to report an EPS of $1.93 versus a consensus $1.88.
It didn’t at the time expect CIBC to announce a dividend increase.
National Bank in looking at key themes for CIBC said a “relatively conservative” provision build was expected; a “bullish domestic growth outlook could be dampened”; and noted the pace of buybacks had decelerated “modestly.”
On provisions, National Bank expected CM to be “one of the more conservative banks” in terms of adding to performing provisions this quarter.
It noted that since the end of 2023, the bank has boosted its performing ACL ratio by 5 bps, above the 4 bps peer average (2 bps ex. BMO).
This increase included 9 bps of performing PCLs during Q1 2025, which is on par with National’s expectations for the group this quarter.
For what it’s worth, National Bank said CIBC was also more conservative during the early stages of COVID.
During Q2 2020, it added 24 bps to its performing ACL ratio, which was higher than the 20 bps group average.
It was also a bank that took a more moderate approach to releasing provisions when economic conditions changed/improved, National Bank added.
In terms of the domestic growth outlook, National Bank noted CM delivered strong domestic loan growth during Q1 2025, highlighted by 8% Y/Y (3% Q/Q) commercial loan growth, with management expressing optimism on strong lending pipelines.  Additionally, card balances rose 10% Y/Y (+3% Q/Q).
“However, given the volatile macro environment and uncertainty related to the tariff situation that is affecting both consumers and businesses, the growth outlook could dampen this quarter,” National Bank added.
On buybacks, National Bank noted CM implemented a 20 million share buyback program in September 2024.
Over the first three quarters of the program, CM has repurchased 5 million, 3.5 million and 2.4 million shares, respectively.
At this pace, National said it is unlikely that CM will repurchase its total program capacity, especially if management cites the macro environment as a factor to explain a more conservative capital retention strategy.
National notes that CM’s Q1 2025 CET 1 ratio of 13.5% is above its minimum target range of 12.75%-13% (i.e., the base level assumption behind its 15%+ medium-term ROE objective).
National Bank said it expected RBC to report an EPS of $3.26 versus a consensus $3.13.
At the time, it expected RBC to announce a dividend increase.
National Bank in looking at key themes for RBC said updated ‘peak PCLs’ timing was expected to be pushed to 2026; the Capital Markets business should be strong, but with one caveat; and it noted the buyback pace accelerated during the quarter.
At a conference in January 2024, National Bank noted that RBC stated that it expected “peak PCLs” to be experienced at the end of that fiscal year.
“At the time, there were questions related to potential performing provision releases, which would only take place subsequent to the bank believing it had experienced the highest losses in the current credit cycle.
That timing has since been pushed back to year-end 2025.
And now, National Bank believes RBC will be pushing back “peak PCL” expectations to sometime during fiscal 2026.
“Of note,” it said, “weak economic activity and a rising domestic unemployment rate make it highly unlikely that we will see a positive shift in the credit cycle this year.”
National Bank noted that “favourable” trading conditions resulted in RBC reporting $1.6 billion of trading revenues during Q1 2025, a figure that represented a 36% Y/Y increase and the highest figure reported by RBC since Q3 2020.
It said investors expect a similarly strong outcome.
National Bank added: “The one caveat, in our view, is that RY may experience some hits to its trading revenues if it is required to book any losses on its High Yield origination business.
Although conditions haven’t been as bad this quarter as they were during prior periods that exhibited a material widening of high yield spreads (e.g., Q2 2020, Q3 2022), we believe there could still be some unwelcome volatility affecting this business during Q2 2025.”
National Bank noted RBC implemented a 30 million share buyback program on June 12, 2024.
Buyback activity was tepid in the initial phases of the program, with only 2.8m shares repurchased by the end of Q1 2025.
National Bank believes RBC was retaining capital in anticipation of improved organic growth volumes, having emphasized organic growth potential (mainly in its U.S. business) during the Q4 2024 earnings call.
However, National Bank said, the macro/tariff situation has depressed credit demand.
National believes RBC shifted its capital deployment priorities during Q2 2025, having repurchased 3 mln shares (i.e., 10% of program capacity).
“Similar to our expectations from other banks with active buyback programs, we will be monitoring commentary regarding buyback appetite in the coming quarters,” National Bank added.
Price: 26283.45, Change: +14.5, Percent Change: +0.05
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street halted its rebound in the run-up to results from Nvidia Corp. — the last of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps to report.
Treasuries pared losses after a solid $70 billion US sale.
Following a rally in the previous session, the S&P 500 fell.
The Trump administration is moving to restrict the sale of chip design software to China, people familiar with the matter said, as the US government evaluates a broader policy announcement on the issue.
Cadence Design Systems Inc. and Synopsys Inc. tumbled over 9.5%.
Nvidia wiped out a 1.3% advance.
“Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings report is pivotal not just for Nvidia but for the entire stock market, as it can rejuvenate investor optimism across the board and help investors to focus on the power of AI and less on headlines out of Washington on tariffs and taxes,” said James Demmert at Main Street Research.
At Interactive Brokers, Steve Sosnick says he doesn’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that Nvidia’s earnings are the most- consequential report of any given quarter.
“It is no coincidence that the recent bull-market run started in late 2022, almost exactly coinciding with the release of ChatGPT,” he said.
“And no stock has epitomized the AI gold rush more than Nvidia.”
As expected, minutes of the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting reflected a wait-and-see approach from officials.
The S&P 500 fell 0.6%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.45%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6%.
Tesla Inc. is poised to begin its long-awaited robotaxi service in Austin on June 12, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points to 4.48%.
A dollar gauge added 0.3%.
Oil climbed as traders weighed risks to Iranian and Russian supplies.
Read: Why Is Nvidia the King of AI Chips, and Can It Last?:
“It’s hard to recall a time when so many investors were so focused on the earnings outcome of a single stock,” said Ryan Grabinski at Strategas Securities.
“We have no clear view on how Nvidia’s earnings will land given the many variables at play, but what is certain is the persistent attacks from both the US and China leaves the company highly sensitive to headline risk.”
Nvidia and fellow megacaps were among the biggest decliners in last month’s rout that sent the S&P 500 to the brink of a bear market.
Many of the stocks have recouped much of the losses after President Donald Trump temporarily paused the stiffest levies and earnings showed demand remains intact.
The chipmaker’s surge from its April lows hasn’t been accompanied by high volumes, suggesting some investors might have missed out on the rally.
An upbeat earnings report would bode well for US stocks as investors have about $7 trillion parked in cash funds, BBVA strategists have estimated.
Traders also kept a close eye on the latest headlines around global trade negotiations.
The European Union’s trade chief, Maros Sefcovic, plans to speak to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer Thursday, seeking to fast-track negotiations to reach a deal before a July 9 deadline.
Trump bristled at suggestions that Wall Street believed he was ultimately unwilling to follow through on extreme tariff threats, saying Wednesday his repeated retreats were strategic efforts to exert trade concessions.
“The latest trade developments remain in line with our base case that pragmatism will ultimately prevail over confrontation,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“So far, the Trump administration has appeared to temper its more strident tariff policies in response to signs of distress in markets.”
Assuming trade tensions continue to ease, she sees room for the equity market rally to resume into 2026, with the S&P 500 reaching around 6,400 by June of next year. The gauge hovered near 5,900.
“Headline risk obviously remains a short-term driver of the tape, creating volatile back-and-forth action,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“We thus anticipate further choppiness for the remainder of the year along these lines, but with a general upward bias above the 5,500-5,750 range and the potential for new highs at some point.”
Investor exposure to equities is still low enough that the “path of least resistance” for the market is higher, according to Barclays Plc’s Emmanuel Cau.
Absent a volatility shock, “systematic buying could continue to help equities to grind higher,” he wrote in a note.
“The reactivity of the market continues, with a surge following the delay of the tariff implementation, though the equity market has settled into a range that suggests the panic from April is behind us, but further catalysts are necessary to drive the next phase of the bull market,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.

Corporate Highlights:
* President Trump said that the US government would retain guarantees and an oversight role over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac even as he pursues a public offering for the mortgage giants.
* Macy’s Inc. posted better-than-expected quarterly results — a sign the company’s strategy of focusing on its best-performing locations is paying off despite weakening consumer sentiment and tariff volatility.
* Abercrombie & Fitch Co. upped its full-year outlook, suggesting confidence in its ability to navigate the changing tariff landscape.
* Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc.’s chairman pushed back on criticism of its pending acquisition of struggling footwear chain Foot Locker Inc.
* Vail Resorts Inc., a ski resort operator, said Executive Chairperson Rob Katz will return to the role of chief executive officer, replacing Kirsten Lynch, who stepped down.
* Honeywell International Inc. agreed to cooperate with Elliott Investment Management and add a member of the activist shareholder to its board as the industrial firm prepares to split into three companies.
* The Trump administration issued a stripped-down license to Chevron Corp. to remain in Venezuela, allowing the company to conduct minimal maintenance on equipment but prohibiting it from producing oil in the sanctioned South American nation.
* Bank of Montreal topped estimates as net interest income came in higher than expected even as the company set aside more money to cover loans that are still in good standing, highlighting growing concern about the fate of the North American economy.
* BCE Inc., Canada’s largest telecom company by revenue, will set up a network of artificial intelligence data centers across the country, mirroring the aggressive AI infrastructure build- out happening in the US and abroad.
* DeepSeek said it has upgraded the R1 artificial-intelligence model that helped propel the Chinese startup to global prominence earlier this year.
* Shein Group Ltd. is considering switching its planned initial public offering to Hong Kong from London, people familiar with the matter said, representing the latest twist in the fast- fashion retailer’s turbulent pursuit of going public.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.45%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1290
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3465
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 144.89 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.5% to $106,914.73
* Ether fell 1.9% to $2,617.86
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.55%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.73%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $61.55 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,296.98 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Don’t mind anything anyone tells you about anyone else.  Judge everyone and everything for yourself. – Henry James, 1843-1916.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
May 27, 1851:  The world’s first chess tournament is held in London.  Adolf Anderssen, a maths teacher from Wroclaw, wins the event.
MAY 27, 1937: The Golden Gate Bridge connecting San Francisco and Marin County, Calif., opened. Go to article.
May 27, 1930: Scotch tape is patented.

Isadora Duncan, dancer, b.1878.
Rachel Carson, writer, b. 1907.
Hubert H. Humphrey, politician, b. 1911.

American submarine, lost for over a century, discovered ‘remarkably intact’ off the coast of San Diego
A submarine that sank over 100 years ago during WWI has been surveyed off the coast of San Diego. Read More

Scientists may have discovered the most powerful particle collider in the universe
Scientists may have discovered the most powerful particle colliders in the universe — and they’re strewn throughout our galaxy just waiting to blow. Read More.

Groundbreaking amplifier could lead to ‘super lasers’ that make the internet 10 times faster
Scientists have designed an amplifier that can transmit 10 times more information per second than current fiber-optic systems can, which could be helpful for medical treatment and diagnosis. Read More.

Team USA takes gold in Sweden
For the first time since 1933, the US men’s hockey team triumphed at the IIHF World Championship tournament. During the trophy presentation, Team USA held up the jersey of Johnny Gaudreau, the former USA and NHL player who died last year, along with his brother, after they were fatally struck by a suspected drunken driver.

Billie Eilish triumphs at AMAs
Although she didn’t attend the American Music Awards ceremony in Las Vegas, Eilish won all seven awards she was nominated for, including artist of the year, album of the year and song of the year.

And the Palme d’Or goes to …
Iranian director, screenwriter and producer Jafar Panahi, who had previously been imprisoned by the Iranian government, received the top prize at the Cannes Film Festival for his new movie.

Lorde of the dance
Fans attending a Lorde-themed club night in Sydney, Australia, were shocked and thrilled when the Grammy-winning singer showed up.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
A vendor walks with his hats and beachwear along Ipanema beach
Photograph: Bruna Prado/AP

Bangkok, Thailand
An employee cleans mirrored floors at the Mahanakhon Skyverse digital art exhibition at King Power Mahanakhon
Photograph: Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP/Getty Images

Texas, US
The sun sets as SpaceX’s mega rocket Starship is prepared for a test flight from the Space X Starbase
Photograph: Eric Gay/AP
Market Closes for May 27^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42343.65	+740.58
		+1.78%
S&P 500	5921.54	+118.72
		+2.05%
NASDAQ	19199.16	+461.95
		+2.47%
TSX	26268.99	+195.86
		+0.75%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37724.11	+192.58
		+0.51%
HANG SENG	23381.99	+99.66
		+0.43%
SENSEX	81551.63	-624.82
		-0.76%
FTSE 100*	8778.05	+60.08
		+0.69%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.256	3.327
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.549	3.626
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4436	N.A
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9511	N.A

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7240	0.7280
US $	1.3812	1.3736

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5661	0.6385
US $	1.1336	0.8821

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3342.65	N.A
Oil
WTI Crude Future	60.89	62.18

Market Commentary:
Never invest in anything that eats or needs repainting. –Billy Rose, 1899-1966.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 0.8%, or 195.87 to 26,269.00 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since May 15.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 137 of 217 shares rose, while 76 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.9%.
Inter Rent Real Estate Investment Trust had the largest increase, rising 14.8%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 5.7%
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 22.4% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.8% in the past 5 days and rose 6.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 on a trailing basis and 15.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.2t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.93% compared with 8.23% in the previous session and the average of 24.99% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 85.8863| 1.0| 23/2
Information Technology | 37.4354| 1.5| 7/3
Consumer Staples | 27.0891| 2.7| 8/2
Real Estate | 11.9047| 2.6| 18/1
Utilities | 11.5818| 1.1| 12/2
Consumer Discretionary | 10.7391| 1.2| 6/4
Industrials | 8.0591| 0.2| 16/11
Energy | 4.9001| 0.1| 18/21
Communication Services | 4.0921| 0.7| 3/2
Health Care | 1.2327| 2.0| 4/0
Materials | -7.0466| -0.2| 22/28
Shopify | 35.5600| 2.9| -23.1| -3.6
Couche-Tard | 18.3800| 4.9| 58.9| -8.7
RBC | 14.6800| 0.8| -17.4| 2.6
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -3.3520| -0.6| 17.5| 43.0
Celestica | -4.0470| -2.9| -7.7| 23.8
Wheaton Precious Metals | -4.2970| -1.1| 21.8| 46.2
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday achieved a second successive day of record intraday and closing highs while taking its winning run to 14 out of the last 15 sessions, even as credit guidance from Canada’s big banks and tax moves in the United States are seen potentially weighing on the financial sector.
Tuesday’s gains on the resources heavy TSX were also achieved despite lower commodity prices, but with all sectors higher.
The index closed up 195.87points at 26,269.
Of commodities today, The Wall Street Journal noted with gold the front-month contract closed down 1.9% to US$3,299.10 a troy ounce as the U.S. dollar index trended higher.
The WSJ also noted oil futures settled lower with expectations of further OPEC+ production increases in July outweighing the easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU, which lifted equities.
WTI settled down 1% at US$60.89 a barrel, and Brent fell 1% to $64.09.
Among sectors, Health Care (+1.9%) and Utilities (1.1%), followed by Financials (+0.9%) led the way.
In relation to sectors and stocks, one potential stumbling block for the overall market may lie in wait within the second quarter results currently coming from Canada’s big banks.
Scotiabank (BNS.TO, BNS) earlier today missed market expectations for its second quarter as the bank put aside more money for potentially bad loans ahead.
Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO, BMO) is slated to follow with its Q2 update on Wednesday morning, and National Bank in a preview note published earlier in May noted “credit guidance has been a moving target” for that bank.
“Commercial loan growth outlook likely weakens,” National Bank said, while also noting BMO’s buyback activity was “tracking program capacity.”
National Bank is forecasting earnings per share from BMO of $2,60 versus a consensus $2.49, but no dividend increase.
On credit guidance, National Bank wrote: “We believe BMO investors are still wary of the bank’s credit performance, especially in light of fiscal 2024, during which actual loan loss provisions exceeded expectations by 60%.
” To be fair, National Bank said, BMO has turned a corner, with Q1 2025 PCLs down nearly 35% quarter over quarter from the Q4 2024 peak.
It noted management has guided to an impaired PCL ratio on par with 2024’s 47 bps ratio, albeit improving over the course of the year.
“Given the economic outlook clouded by U.S. tariff plans, we believe investors are bracing for yet another shift in credit guidance given BMO’s elevated exposure to both commercial lending and to the U.S. market (i.e., where rate cuts may be pushed back),” National Bank added.
In terms of commercial loan growth, National Bank wrote: “Overshadowed by the credit trends over the past year has been BMO’s lacklustre loan growth, notably in the commercial portfolio.
Over the past 12 months, the U.S. P&C segment has seen a decrease in commercial balances of 1%, providing little evidence of Bank of the West revenue synergy potential.
In Canada, growth has been a positive surprise, with the portfolio expanding by 7% over the past year with no discernible trend of deceleration. However, this positive trend may shift.”
National Bank noted that at its Annual Financial Services Conference in Montreal this past March, the bank’s head of Commercial Banking provided some updated perspective on commercial loan growth.
In the U.S., BMO continues to anticipate positive loan growth in the second half of the year.
Meanwhile, in Canada, it expects “moderate” loan growth, which implies from recent levels.
On buybacks, National Bank noted BMO announced a 20 million share buyback program on January 17, 2025.
The bank repurchased 1.2 million shares in the last month of Q1 2025 when the program first began and repurchased another 7 million shares in Q2.
At an average price of $137.5, or 2.5% below its current price, this quarter’s buybacks were a “good/opportunistic” use of capital, in National Bank’s opinion.
National will look for shifts to BMO’s buyback plans, which may be dictated by the macro backdrop, provisioning activity (e.g. the level of performing build during the quarter) or organic growth considerations.
Meanwhile, on another topic that could impact Canada’s financial sector, Rosenberg Research sees tax policy changes in the United States having a “significant set of implications” for Canadian tax payments to the U.S., for both investors and firms.
“In their search for revenue,” the research said, “House Republicans cobbled together a strange and vague grab bag of tax changes, many of which affect foreign individuals and multinationals.
Most of these policies conflict with existing Canada-U.S. tax treaties (clearly not a major priority for the Trump team or Congress) and layer on even more uncertainty on top of the trade file.”
Rosenberg Research noted Canada’s Digital Services Tax on U.S. multinationals, “a recent irritant to bilateral relations”, seems very likely to be a trigger for planned tax retaliation.
Section 899 of the bill has a mechanism that retaliates for “discriminatory or unfair taxes,” and the response would raise the current 5% withholding rate by +5 percentage points per year, up to a maximum of 50%, keeping this measure in place until the “unfair” tax is removed by the targeted country.
The research said: “This would have clear negative implications for Canadian firms, especially those in the Financials sector.
Individuals could also be hit with the same change (with withholding taxes going from 15% to 50% over several years).
The undertaxed profits rule is also ambiguously written but could affect certain types of Canadian multinationals.”
It added: “This would have unpredictable consequences — likely leading to lower equity valuations in the short run, but potentially leading Canadian investors to “return home” and develop a stronger home bias for domestic equities.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street kicked off the week with a rally in stocks as consumer confidence rebounded sharply while the US and the European Union sped up trade talks.
A global surge in bonds also helped sentiment.
As equities halted a four-day slide, the S&P 500 climbed 2%.
Nvidia Corp. paced gains in megacaps ahead of its results.
Treasuries got a boost, pushing the 30-year yield below 5% on signs Japan will be ready to calm jittery debt markets.
The moves in the US extended after a sale of two-year notes was met with solid bidding metrics.
The dollar rose against all developed-market currencies.
President Donald Trump noted he was encouraged the EU is speeding up negotiations on trade, days after he said the bloc would face 50% tariffs if they fail to reach a deal with the US.
Trump extended a deadline for those taxes to take effect to July 9 after a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
“The EU tariff reprieve until July 9 is an important step in the overall resolution of this trade situation, as it increases the chances that trade deals will continue to come to fruition, which is the exact messaging that the market is hoping for,” said Robert Ruggirello at Brave Eagle Wealth Management.
Meantime, global bonds rallied as Japanese authorities signaled, they are considering adjusting their debt plan after a selloff that drove the nation’s long-term borrowing costs to the highest levels in decades.
Worries about the ability of governments to cover massive budget deficits weighed on developed-market debt in recent days.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 2.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.8%.
Nvidia rallied over 3% while Apple Inc. halted its longest selloff in more than three years.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell seven basis points to 4.44%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%.
The yen sank 1%.

Corporate Highlights:
* An upbeat earnings report by Nvidia on Wednesday would bode well for a rally in US equities as investors have about $7 trillion parked in cash funds, according to BBVA strategists.
* Salesforce Inc. has agreed to buy Informatica Inc. for about $8 billion, sealing the deal on a software firm that had seen its shares plunge by as much as 59% since the companies’ first talks failed last year.
* The US government is poised to receive a so-called golden share in United States Steel Corp. as a condition for approving Nippon Steel Corp.’s proposed acquisition of the American company.
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc. was upgraded to hold from reduce at HSBC, which cited “the recent re-rating on the back of the Saudi AI deal, as well as tariff de-escalation.”
* The Swiss National Bank sold its entire stake in oil producer Chevron Corp. because it now considers investments in the stock to breach its portfolio guidelines, according to a person familiar with the matter.
* Temu owner PDD Holdings Inc.’s sales and profit missed estimates, underscoring how trade tensions between Beijing and Washington are taking a toll on its business.
* Bank of Nova Scotia missed estimates after setting aside more money than expected for bad credit as tariffs hit its Canadian and Mexican operations.
* The US Supreme Court cleared a major obstacle to Rio Tinto Plc’s construction of North America’s largest copper mine, rejecting an appeal by a Native American group that said the Arizona project will destroy a sacred area.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 3.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1330
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.3505
* The Japanese yen fell 1% to 144.33 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $109,916.53
* Ether rose 4.7% to $2,688.59
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.44%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.67%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $61 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.2% to $3,304.56 an ounce

–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
When your work speaks for itself, don’t interrupt. –Henry Kaiser, 1882-1967.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Monday.
May 26, 1896: The Dow Jones Industrial Average was first published. The average price of the 11 initial stocks was 40.94.  Go to article – Secrets of the Dow Jones Industrials
May 26, 1908: Engineers make the first major oil discovery in Iran, transforming the region’s economy and politics.

May 26, 1805: Napoleon crowned King of Italy.
May 26, 1805: Lewis and Clark see the Rocky Mountains.

Jahn Wayne, actor, b. 1907.
Sally Ride, astronaut, b. 1951.

Tomb built for Alexander the Great’s best friend is aligned with winter solstice, study suggests.

‘Trash’ found deep inside a Mexican cave turns out to be 500-year-old artifacts from a little-known culture.

Powerful Mother’s Day geomagnetic storm created radio-disrupting bubbles in Earth’s upper atmosphere.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

California gardeners plant native species in parks to prevent wildfire spread
‘It’s an experiment in design through maintenance,’ said Jenny Jones (pictured), director of Test Plot. ‘We bring our skills as designers to the park, but do it in a more immediate, low-budget, low-tech way that is very community friendly’
Photograph: Philip Cheung/The Guardian

Terremoto’s Burn Scar Test Plot, also in Elysian Park, was covered in black mustard and eucalyptus, two non-native and flammable species that burned during 2023 fires
Photograph: Philip Cheung/The Guardian

‘In Los Angeles, we see a lot of people fleeing the film and TV industry, which is struggling right now, and finding purpose in care and stewardship,’ Jones said. ‘It gives you a place to put your energy.’
Pictured: a lacy phaecelia plant in front of elegant clarkias at the Elysian Test Plot
Photograph: Philip Cheung/The Guardian
Market Closes for May 26^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	Market Closed	N.A
S&P 500	Market Closed	N.A
NASDAQ	Market Closed	N.A
TSX	26073.13	+193.18
		+0.75%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37531.53	+371.06
		+1.00%
HANG SENG	23282.33	-318.93
		-1.35%
SENSEX	82176.45	+455.37
		+0.56%
FTSE 100*	Market Closed	N.A

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.327	3.352
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.626	3.648
U.S. 10 Year Bond	NA	4.5110
U.S. 30 Year Bond	NA	5.0374

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7280	0.7283
US $	1.3736	1.3730

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5644	0.6392
US $	1.1388	0.8781

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	N.A.	3342.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.18	61.84

Market Commentary:
Nothing is safe; nothing is secure in any field of life. -Gerald Loeb, The Battle for Investment Survival.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.7%, or 193.18 to 26,073.13 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on May 15.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.8%.
ATS Corp. had the largest increase, rising 20.3%.
Today, 188 of 217 shares rose, while 25 fell; all sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 5%
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 9.9% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 21.5% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 5.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 on a trailing basis and 15.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.17t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.23% compared with 10.33% in the previous session and the average of 25.85% over the past

Index Points
Information Technology | 47.2459| 1.9| 10/0
Financials | 41.7235| 0.5| 20/5
Industrials | 32.8242| 1.0| 25/3
Energy | 29.1315| 0.7| 38/3
Materials | 17.6671| 0.5| 44/4
Consumer Discretionary | 8.8446| 1.0| 9/1
Consumer Staples | 6.2812| 0.6| 8/2
Real Estate | 4.8877| 1.1| 18/0
Utilities | 4.1043| 0.4| 12/3
Communication Services | 0.2856| 0.0| 3/2
Health Care | 0.1793| 0.3| 1/2
Shopify | 32.6600| 2.8| -59.5| -6.3
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 10.3500| 1.4| -37.6| 7.2
Cameco | 7.6340| 3.1| -45.8| 12.4
Power of Canada | -1.1010| -0.6| -77.8| 12.8
Nutrien | -1.4780| -0.5| -71.8| 26.6
Ivanhoe Mines | -10.4600| -16.2| 219.7| -36.9
Now down just one session in the last 14, the Toronto Stock Exchange climbed to a fresh record close on Monday as a better-than-expected result last week from TD Bank (TD.TO, TD) is seen pointing to potential earnings upside for Canada’s other big banks yet to report, starting with Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO, BNS) tomorrow morning.
Despite deflated commodity prices, the resources heavy market finished up 193.18 points at 26,073.13, beating a prior recent record close by less than 20 points.
This comes after the TSX snapped a six-week winning streak last Friday.
But going in to today, the index was up near 4.2% month to date, and more than 4.6% year to date.
Among sectors, most were higher, led by the Battery Metals Index (+2.5%), Information Technology (+1.8%) and Industrials (+1%). Reflecting lower gold prices, Base Metals was slightly lower.
Of individual stocks, ATS Corporation (TSX and NYSE: ATS) jumped 20% after announcing that it has reached a settlement agreement with its Electric Vehicle customer with respect to the previously disclosed outstanding payments owed.
With markets in both the United States and the United Kingdom shuttered for holidays, Canadian stock pickers were able to focus on domestic matters likely to in focus over the week ahead, including the expected release Tuesday of second quarter earnings from Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO, BNS).
For Q2, FactSet is forecasting earnings per share of $1.55 versus $1.58 a year earlier and FactSet is forecasting revenues of $9,087.8 million.
In an earnings preview note published earlier this month National Bank forecast $1.59 versus a consensus of $1.55.
It also forecast a dividend increase.
Among key themes, National Bank expected the corporate segment to lead the way; said the provision build could diverge from peers; and added capital markets could provide a “relatively lower uplift.”
On Scotia’s corporate segment, National Bank said BNS’ balance sheet is positioned for lower rates, namely via lower funding costs.
It noted that since Q1 2024, the loss reported in this segment fell from a peak of $230 million during Q1 2024 to $177 million during Q1 2025.
Including Q1 2025’s performance, National Bank estimates a total reduction in corporate segment losses of near $230 million during fiscal 2025 (excl. KEY earnings pick-up), which will explain roughly 45-50% of total bank profit growth for the year.
On provisions, while National Bank expects most banks to build performing provisions above their recent run rates, it said BNS could diverge somewhat from this trend.
According to National Bank, the bank’s International Banking segment, which represents around 22% of total bank loans, may prove “a bit more resilient” in terms of credit outlook than many expect.
It bases this view on how (outside Mexico) the U.S. has not targeted most LatAm countries with elevated tariffs.
Separately, National Bank said, BNS may simply choose to run with a “leaner” level of performing provisions than its peers.
It noted that during COVID, from Q1 2020 to Q4 2020, BNS’ performing ACL ratio increased by around 60%, lower than the 85% increase for its average peer.
Moreover, when it came time to start releasing provisions, BNS did so more rapidly than its peers did, National Bank added.
On capital markets, National Bank said everyone is expecting the banks to report strong trading revenue performance this quarter, a silver lining to an otherwise unexciting growth environment.
National would not be surprised if BNS reports relatively weaker Capital Markets performance this quarter.
For starters, National noted, its trading revenues as a percentage of total revenues of 7% are lower than the 8.5% peer average.
“Moreover, we don’t believe that BNS will benefit as much from elevated equity derivatives trading activity as some of its peers may have,” it said.
Of commodities, Bloomberg noted oil fluctuated as the market weighed easing trade tensions against the outlook for rising OPEC+ supply.
Gold traded lower mid-afternoon Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump said he will delay a plan to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union to July from June, easing safe-haven buying. Gold for August delivery was last down $25.20 to US$3,369.30 per ounce.
US
All US markets are closed today for the Memoria Day Holiday.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The two most powerful warriors are patience and time. -Leo Tolstoy, 1828-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

 

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

May 23, 1784: Benjamin Franklin announces his invention of bifocals, enabling clear vision for both near and far distances.
May 23, 1873 Canada’s North West Mounted Police force was established. Go to article

May 23, 1895: NY Public Library founded.
Joan Collins, actress, b.1933.
Drew Carey, actor, b. 1961.

Prince William debuts new docuseries 
The six-part series offers a rare insight into “one of the most dangerous jobs on the planet.”

Time to break out the popcorn
Summer movie season kicks off this weekend. Here are 21 films you might want to check out.

‘Super-vision’ contact lenses let wearers see in the dark — even with their eyes closed
Researchers have developed new contact lenses that enable vision in the near-infrared range, and they could restore color perception to people with color blindness. Read More.

2,300-year-old gold ring found in Israel was likely buried by a betrothed girl
A gold ring with a red gemstone found in Israel dates to the Hellenistic period and may have been buried in a coming-of-age ritual. Read More.

‘Strange’ star pulses detected in search for extraterrestrial intelligence
A retired researcher has detected an unusual pulse in the light of nearby stars while looking for signs of extraterrestrial intelligence. Aliens are one possible explanation for the strange signal, but as with every other unexplained space phenomenon, it’s probably not aliens. Read More.

A dozen black holes may be ‘wandering’ through our galaxy — and they’re the rarest type in the universe
Dozens of ‘wandering’ black holes could be tumbling through our galaxy right now, new simulations hint. Their existence could help solve a longstanding cosmic puzzle. Read More.

An udderly confused cow found itself way up in the air over Switzerland, immortalized in this photo.

The mascot for a new Northwest soccer team got roasted by Stephen Colbert. “Not only is he horrifying, he’s wearing his own children as hair!” Colbert exclaimed.

Sometimes, all people need is someone to listen. A man with a sign and a Subaru set out to be that someone for people scattered across hundreds of miles, at no charge. What he’s discovered: “Life is not all sorrow and challenges. It’s actually pretty beautiful some of the time.” This story will make you think (and perhaps tear up). 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sydney, Australia
Fireworks explode as the sails of the Sydney Opera House are illuminated at the start of the annual Vivid Sydney festival
Photograph: Ayush Kumar/AFP/Getty

Chelsea flower show 2025
photograph: Sarah Lee

Taicang, China
Containers stacked at a port in Jiangsu province
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 23^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41603.07	-256.02
		-0.61
S&P 500	5802.82	-39.19
		-0.67%
NASDAQ	18737.21	-188.52
		-1.00%
TSX	25879.95	+25.94
		+0.10%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37160.47	+174.60
		+0.47%
HANG SENG	23601.26	+56.95
		+0.24
SENSEX	81721.08	+769.09
		+0.95%
FTSE 100*	8717.97	-21.29
		-0.24%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.352	3.373
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.648	3.666
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.5110	4.5287
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0374	5.0395

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7283	0.7283
US $	1.3730	1.3856

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5610	0.6406
US $	1.1368	0.8796

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3342.65	3299.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.84	62.56

Market Commentary:
In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield. -Warren Buffett, b. 1930.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.1%, or 25.94 to 25,879.95 in Toronto.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 10.0%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 18.1%.
Today, 129 of 217 shares rose, while 79 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.2%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.4%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended April 4
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on May 20, 2025, and 20.6% above its low on June 17, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.17t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.33% compared with 14.61% in the previous session and the average of 27.35% over the past month

Index Points
Energy | 50.4992| 1.2| 34/5
Materials | 44.6240| 1.3| 40/9
Consumer Staples | 7.2257| 0.7| 9/1
Utilities | 3.4040| 0.3| 10/4
Health Care | 0.3265| 0.5| 2/2
Real Estate | -1.0619| -0.2| 8/9
Consumer Discretionary | -2.2185| -0.3| 2/7
Communication Services | -2.9374| -0.5| 0/4
Financials | -6.1746| -0.1| 13/11
Industrials | -23.3138| -0.7| 9/19
Information Technology | -44.4308| -1.8| 2/8
Cameco | 22.4500| 10.0| 194.8| 9.0
Enbridge | 9.1720| 1.0| -46.1| 3.7
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 8.9260| 1.6| -14.6| 43.6
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -9.7590| -1.3| -23.6| 5.7
Canadian National | -11.9500| -2.1| -3.5| -1.2
Shopify | -31.3800| -2.6| -19.7| -8.8
The Toronto Stock Exchange has now been down just one session in the last 13 after the resources heavy index rose again on Friday, buoyed by higher commodity prices, but even as Rosenberg Research remains underweight on the Energy sector and while investors are unsure of what to expect from the Bank of Canada when it meets again on June 4.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose modest 25.9 points to close at 25,879.95.
Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet noted going in to today the index was up 4.08% month to date, and 4.55% year to date.
Sectors were mixed, with Base Metals the only one rising by more than 1% and Information Technology the sole one falling by more than 1%.
Of commodities, gold was sharply higher late afternoon Friday as the dollar plunged after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union on June 1, adding yet more turmoil for the global economy and raising safe-haven demand.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $63.50 to US$3,387.10 per ounce, pressing close to the April 21 record high of $3,425.30.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose for the first time in four days despite concerns over rising supply as the high-demand summer driving season begins this weekend with the U.S. Memorial Day holiday.
WTI oil for July delivery closed up $0.33 to settle at US$61.53 per barrel, while July Brent crude was last seen up $0.30 to US$64.74.
Still, Rosenberg Research in an Energy Sector Outlook entitled ‘Oil’s Not Well’ said it remains underweight on the sector: “the macro-outlook looks bad, and the risk-reward profile is constrained by mediocre fundamentals.”
Rosenberg said the “rapid” decline in oil prices shows little sign of abating given the terrible macro-outlook and OPEC+ supply pressure.
It added this leads to little upside for the Energy sector, and its models do not have a favorable view.
“The risk-reward profile and fundamentals are mediocre, but we do highlight a few brighter spots at the subsector level”.
Rosenberg Research said prospects for the U.S. Energy sector “look tactically bleak”, with oil and natural gas prices depressed and showing little upside over the next six months.
It added trade wars have reduced the outlook for manufacturing production, exports, and container shipping volumes around the world.
It remains underweight Energy, given both a problematic macro-outlook and the weak risk-reward profile.
In conclusion, the research said: “We’ve been advising investors to trim risk away from highly cyclically exposed sectors like Consumer Discretionary, and the current market valuation represents a great exit point for that purpose.
However, the Energy sector isn’t a promising destination for capital— the falling global growth outlook and low oil and natural gas prices leave little opportunity on the table, so we remain underweight.”
Meanwhile, founder David Rosenberg, in a separate note of his own said today’s Canadian retail sales number was “broadly mixed”, but added the Bank of Canada “should find comfort” in the back-to-back dips in the price deflator.
Rosenberg noted the headline came in “a tad above” expectations, up 0.8% month over month,(consensus was a rise of 0.7%).
What was key was the “woeful” -0.7% plunge in the ex-auto segment.
That was the steepest slide since May of last year, he added.
Rosenberg said even though much of that weakness reflected a price induced 6.5% MoM drop in gasoline prices, even after stripping out this and autos, retail sales still only managed to eke out a gain of less than 0.2% on the month.
He added: “Bad for the Canadian dollar but good for the GoC bond market, and all of a sudden, the Bank of Canada is back in play.
In fact, what stood out in the report was the -0.1% MoM reading in the retail price deflator for the second month in a row, and in conjunction with the deflated producer price data we got for April, tells us that the hot CPI number — which was mostly food — was actually more lukewarm than it seemed on the surface.”
Rosenberg noted the year over year trend in pricing power in the broad retail sector has slowed from +2.5% in January to +2.3% in February and now to +2.2% as of March.
“That should be fodder for the BoC policy doves and GoC bond bulls alike,” he said.
Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets in his regular ‘The Week Ahead’ column noted core inflation measures in Canada would suggest the BoC should be holding steady on rates in June, with April ex-energy measures coming in on the high side.
Shenfeld said that may well be the BoC decision in two weeks, but he added it would be based on what the data is showing now.
“In terms of where it’s headed,” he added, “the coming week’s GDP news will shed much lighter, given the weight that the central bank rightly assigns to economic slack, the so-called “output gap,” in steering turns in inflation.”
Taylor Schleich, Director, Economics and Strategy at National Bank Financial, for his part noted that despite Canada’s weaker growth outlook, poorer job market prospects and better contained inflation, 2025 policy rate expectations have evolved similarly here compared to the United States.
As it stands, overnight index swap markets are priced for 50 bps of Fed easing this year while just over one BoC cut is discounted.
Schleich noted consensus expects 50 bps from both.
He said: “Relative to market pricing, we think risks are skewed in the opposite direction.
To us, the BoC is likely to deliver more easing than is priced (and more than consensus).
Fed pricing is closer to ‘fair value’ but listening to the FOMC, there’s a clearer path to one (or no) cuts versus more than two.”
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street was rattled by President Donald Trump’s threats to impose aggressive tariffs on the European Union and Apple Inc., with stocks falling and the dollar hitting its lowest level since December 2023.
The S&P 500 extended losses as Trump said he’s “not looking for a deal” with the EU, reiterating tariffs would be set at 50%.
Earlier Friday, the market got some relief as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US could strike “several large” trade deals in the next couple of weeks.
Apple fell 3%, down for an eighth straight session.
United States Steel Corp. soared 21% as Trump backed a partnership with Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp. Benchmark 10-year Treasuries held gains as Bessent said regulators may ease a capital rule on the market, which could reduce yields.
Haven currencies like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc climbed alongside gold.
Trump said that the 25% tariff he threatened against Apple earlier Friday would also be aimed at device makers including Samsung Electronics Co. to spur them into moving manufacturing of their products to the US.
The president said in a social media post that the higher charge on the EU would start on June 1 because “our discussions with them are going nowhere.”
The sudden move underscores the ongoing risk that shifts in US policy can abruptly upend market dynamics at short notice.
Markets had rebounded in recent weeks on optimism that Trump was softening his approach to the tariffs and investor attention had turned to concerns about the ballooning US debt and deficits.
“Volatility remains the theme,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.
“This is a sharp reminder that the tariffs will continue to be a source of major uncertainty until there are meaningful agreements finalized.”
That said, Navellier says these threats are negotiating tactics to give President Trump negotiating leverage, so he would be “shocked” if these proposed tariffs are imposed.
The S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, down for a fourth straight day.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.9%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.9%, with tariff-exposed autos among the biggest decliners.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.51%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%.
“Just when I thought it was safe to go back into markets, look what happens,” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors.
“Uncertainty is continually ramping up — it’s not about to come down at all.
This is on trend in terms of Trump’s tactics of imposing tariffs,” he added.
The president’s tariff threats represented a fresh round of trade brinkmanship; after indicating last week he was looking to wind down talks with partners over his April 2 duties, which he paused for 90 days to allow for negotiations.
“It’s going to keep markets on edge,” said Aneeka Gupta, head of macroeconomic research at Wisdom Tree UK Ltd.
“Markets were hoping news on tariffs had abated until at least the 90-day pause expired, but that’s clearly not the case.
Uncertainties are here to stay.
We’re in for a period of very high volatility.”
To Capital Economics, Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff on the EU from June may well turn out to be a “negotiating tactic” and seems “very unlikely” to be where tariffs settle over the long run.
“At this stage, we are not inclined to change our working assumption that tariffs on the EU will ultimately settle around 10% but this underlines that there are risks and that the road to an agreement could be rocky,” the firm said.
Eric Teal at Comerica Wealth Management said that the EU implications would be less impactful than many of the Asian emerging markets that are key components to the technology sector supply chain.
“Although policy uncertainty injects more investment uncertainty, we believe this is part of the negotiating thesis to cut individual or regional deals, and we still believe that most companies and the economy are well positioned to power through the temporary higher import prices,” he said.
The Trump administration’s fast-changing tariff policies have sent equities spiraling on recession fears and concerns about the safety of US assets, but they’ve rebounded from April’s lows as the president touted progress in tariff negotiations.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon recently warned against complacency in the face of a slew of risks, citing everything from inflation and credit spreads to geopolitics.
“Concerns over trade, fiscal deficits, and growth may be less evident in equity markets when considering the broader market’s impressive recovery from the April lows, but they still appear to be relevant to the dollar,” said Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.
Turnquist noted the greenback has struggled to gain traction over the last month as de-dollarization trends continue against a backdrop of rising deficit forecasts and a US debt downgrade.
The latest tariff threats came at a time when bond investors are demanding more compensation to hold long-dated US debt as global markets grow anxious about the widening fiscal deficit in the world’s biggest economy.
The US 10-year term premium — or the extra return investors demand to own longer-term debt instead of a series of shorter ones — has climbed to near 1%, a level last seen in 2014.
It’s a measure of how jittery investors are about plans to raise the scale of future borrowing.
“While there is a risk that deficit fears lead to progressively higher yields in the weeks ahead, we believe that the Fed and/or Trump administration would likely make adjustments in the event of much higher yields,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
To Marcelli, that means high grade and investment grade bonds represent good value at current levels for investors seeking portfolio income.

Corporate Highlights:
* Oracle Corp. will spend around $40 billion on Nvidia Corp.’s high-performance computer chips to power OpenAI’s new US data center in Abilene, Texas,, the Financial Times reported, citing several people familiar with the matter.
* Trump on Friday signed orders meant to accelerate the construction of nuclear power plants, including small, untested designs that offer the promise of rapid deployment but have yet to be built in the US.
* Boeing Co. has reached a tentative agreement with the US Justice Department that would allow the plane maker to avoid criminal charges for two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jets more than six years ago.
* Salesforce Inc. is in talks to acquire software company Informatica Inc., rebooting a pursuit that fell through last year, people familiar with the matter said.
* CommScope Holding Co. is exploring a sale of its broadband connectivity and cable arm, according to people with knowledge of the matter, as the network infrastructure firm unloads assets to repay debt.
* Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. fees are under fresh scrutiny from European Union antitrust enforcers, less than a decade after a series of probes ended with hefty fines and an agreement to cut some of their controversial levies.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%
* The euro rose 0.7% to $1.1363
* The British pound rose 0.9% to $1.3535
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 142.51 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.1% to $108,725.93
* Ether fell 3.1% to $2,559.67
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.51%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.68%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $61.61 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2% to $3,361.06 an ounce

-With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani, Julien Ponthus, Andre Janse van Vuuren and Lynn Thomasson.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now.— Chinese Proverb
 
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
 
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
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