Category: Uncategorized

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

July 18, 1908: The Frogs, an African American theatrical organization, is founded in Harlem.
July 18, 1936: The Spanish Civil War begins as Nationalist forces rise against Spain’s Republican government, sparking a brutal three-year conflict that draws in foreign powers.
On this day in 1968, Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore, engineering refugees from Fairchild Semiconductor, established N.M. Electro. It soon changed its name to Intel.
July 18, 1969:  A car driven by Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., plunged off a bridge on Chappaquiddick Island near Martha’s Vineyard. His passenger, 28-year-old Mary Jo Kopechne, died. Go to article.

Nelson Mandela, b. 1918.
Hunter S. Thompson, b. 1939.

New bionic knee connects directly with muscles and bone to feel more like the user’s body
A bionic knee that directly attaches to the thigh bone and uses implanted electrodes can make a prosthetic leg feel more like a part of the body, a new study finds. Read More.

600-year-old amethyst ‘worthy of a duke’ found in medieval castle moat in Poland
The amethyst was set in high-quality silver and probably once formed part of a brooch. Read More.

Scientists make ‘magic state’ breakthrough after 20 years — without it, quantum computers can never be truly useful
Scientists demonstrate a process called “magic state distillation” in logical qubits for the first time, meaning we can now build quantum computers that are both error-free and more powerful than supercomputers. Read More.

Behold, ‘The Beast’: Gigantic animal-like plasma plume 13 times wider than Earth hovers over the sun
Astrophotographers have snapped stunning shots of a giant shapeshifting solar prominence, dubbed “The Beast,” which appeared over the sun’s northeastern limb on July 12 and rained impossibly fast fire over our home star.  Read More.

Giant meteor impact may have triggered massive Grand Canyon landslide 56,000 years ago
Researchers have found a link between two geological events in iconic locations of the U.S. Southwest that scientists previously didn’t think had anything to do with each other.

TSA expands security checkpoint lanes
Two groups of passengers will now have the opportunity to enjoy an expedited process through security at the airport.

Dinosaur fossil found underneath parking lot
The phrase “leave no stone unturned” has taken on new meaning for paleontologists at the Denver Museum of Nature & Science.

Stevie Nicks, Lindsey Buckingham stir up Fleetwood Mac reunion hopes
The lyrics the musicians posted on social media seem to suggest that anything is possible.

Lewis Capaldi: Antipsychotic medication ‘changed my life’
The Scottish singer has been taking care of his mental health since having a “breakdown of sorts” at the Glastonbury Festival in 2023.

Famed skydiver and BASE jumper Felix Baumgartner dies at 56
Baumgartner achieved international recognition in 2012 when he performed a jump from 24 miles above the Earth, higher than anyone before him. He died on Thursday in a paragliding accident.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

İzmir, Turkey
Tomatoes left in the sun to dry

Snettisham, Norfolk
Rise and shine. Dawn breaks across Norfolk behind St Mary’s church.’
Photograph: Richard Gibbs

In a new light: an infrared perspective of Australia’s capital
Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
Market Closes for July 18^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44342.19	-142.30
		-0.32%
S&P 500	6296.79	-0.57
		-0.01%
NASDAQ	20895.66	+10.01
		+0.05%
TSX	27314.01	-72.92
		-0.27%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39819.11	-82.08
		-0.21%
HANG SENG	24825.66	+326.71
		+1.33%
SENSEX	81757.73	-501.51
		-0.61%
FTSE 100*	8992.12	+19.48
		+0.22%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.573	3.567
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.888	3.878
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4155	4.4513
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9875	5.0072

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7282	0.7277
US $	1.3732	1.3741

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5966	0.6263
US $	1.1625	0.8602

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3318.50	3323.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.54	67.54

Market Commentary:
The consumer is our boss, quality is our work, and value for money is our goal. –Forrest Edward Mars Sr., 1904-1999.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 27,314.01 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.9%.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 3.6%.
Today, 111 of 213 shares fell, while 100 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by industrials stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.1%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on July 17, 2025 and 26.1% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.34% compared with 6.26% in the previous session and the average of 6.12% over the past month

Index Points
Industrials | -36.5482| -1.0| 12/17
Materials | -20.1672| -0.6| 12/36
Financials | -14.3489| -0.2| 13/11
Information Technology | -13.2050| -0.5| 2/8
Consumer Discretionary | -9.4345| -1.0| 2/7
Communication Services | -7.0552| -1.1| 1/4
Health Care | -1.1093| -1.7| 0/3
Real Estate | -0.1918| 0.0| 6/13
Utilities | 4.8761| 0.5| 10/4
Energy | 10.5991| 0.2| 34/6
Consumer Staples | 13.6689| 1.3| 8/2
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -25.6200| -3.6| 71.3| 2.2
Brookfield Corp | -13.6300| -1.5| -19.8| 11.7
Canadian National | -13.1000| -2.4| 66.1| -6.4
Intact Financial | 5.7710| 1.6| 11.6| 16.2
Nutrien | 7.4050| 2.7| -24.1| 28.0
Couche-Tard | 7.7700| 1.9| 107.6| -5.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange slipped more than 70 points Friday afternoon, falling off a day-prior record close.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 72.70 points at 27,314.23, compared with Thursday’s 27,386.34.
Industrials and Information Technology were the biggest decliners, down 4.6% and 1.9%, respectively.
Utilities topped the gainers, rising 2.1%.
Stefane Marion and Matthieu Arseneau, economists at the National Bank of Canada, said in their monthly equity monitor report that in July, Canada was one of only 11 countries in the Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World Index to reach new equity market highs in 2025.
The S&P/TSX has climbed 10.8% year-to-date, hitting a record 27,386.93 on Thursday.
The gains were supported by positive earnings forecasts and an 11% expected growth in earnings per share, the economists said, adding that risks remain, including the threat of new U.S. tariffs and signs of slowing growth.
“Nonetheless, optimism persists around a possible Canada-U.S. trade deal and Ottawa’s efforts to reduce regulatory burdens and boost investment.”
The economists said given this backdrop, they are keeping their asset allocation unchanged after last month’s move to slightly reduce fixed income and increase their position in Canadian equities.
However, their overall outlook remains cautious amid geopolitical uncertainties and tariff wars, with the U.S. President reigniting trade tensions by announcing new double-digit tariffs set to begin on Aug. 1, the note added.
Assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen and senior economist Claire Fan at RBC said the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, due Monday, is expected to show early signs of stabilization in business expectations for sales, hiring, and input costs in the second quarter, following sharp declines in the first quarter.
This improvement comes after trade tensions eased.
While Canada was a major focus of U.S. trade complaints in Q1, it was left off the list of countries facing U.S. tariffs in April.
A tariff exemption for trade under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement introduced in March also remains in place, they said.
More broadly, several indicators suggest a stabilizing Canadian economy in Q2.
Job postings have steadied, and small business confidence has continued to recover since a sharp drop in March, they added.
“The survey could highlight a divergence between sectors directly exposed to trade headwinds (such as manufacturing and transportation), which will likely maintain a softer outlook, while other sectors, particularly consumer-facing businesses, that are more positive,” they said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed lower on Friday, surrendering earlier gains that came on strong summer demand and continuing violence in the Middle East.
After trading as high as US$68.96 WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$0.20 to settle at US$67.34 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$28 to US$69.24.
Gold traded higher midafternoon on Friday as the dollar and treasury yields weakened.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$12.80 to US$3,358.10 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Bond yields fell as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his case for a July rate cut, while data showed consumer expectations for inflation improved.
Stocks wavered amid earnings.
President Donald Trump signed the stablecoins bill in a win for the crypto industry.
Short-dated Treasuries led gains as Waller hinted he would dissent if his colleagues vote to hold rates steady in July.
Bonds also rose as University of Michigan data showed consumers expect prices to increase at an annual rate of 4.4% over the next year, down from 5% in the prior month.
The S&P 500 was little changed.
The dollar edged lower, but notched an advance for the week.
“Investors have something to cheer about with signs of improved inflation expectations,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
“According to this report, the trajectory looks encouraging.”
Meantime, Waller said he sees no sign that inflation expectations are on the rise, which allows the Fed to move forward with rate cuts.
He also restated the case the Fed should cut when policymakers gather later this month, given data suggesting the US labor market is “on the edge.”
“We think he is correct. The Fed’s role is to think ahead, not look behind, which is what Waller is doing concerning the slowing employment situation,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“Nonetheless a July cut won’t happen.”
Money markets still assign near-zero odds of a cut on July 30.
They price in about 45 basis points of easing by year-end, down from more than 65 basis points at the start of the month.
US consumer sentiment rose to a five-month high in early July as expectations about the economy continued to improve.
The preliminary July sentiment index rose to 61.8 from 60.7 a month earlier, according to University of Michigan data released Friday.
The report offered further relief after data this week showed US retail sales rebounded in June in a broad advance, tempering some concerns about a retrenchment in consumer spending.
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, macroeconomic data remains broadly supportive, and the recent strength in markets has been impressive, though perhaps even more noteworthy is the prevailing sense of calm amid a busy and often volatile news cycle.
“Investors have responded positively to robust economic indicators and earnings reports that highlight continued resilience in US consumer spending,” he said.
“The rest of earnings season will be a key test given elevated valuations and expectations, though with current momentum and sentiment, the path of least resistance is higher.”
At Wolfe Research, Chris Senyek says economic data releases this week have been consistent with his view that the US economy is coming in better than consensus expects.
“However, we continue to be worried about the risk of inflation remaining stickier than expected in the back half of 2025,” Senyek noted.
The stock market’s relatively modest gains this week despite mostly solid economic data and earnings could be a preview for much of the rest of the year, according to Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
“While tariff uncertainty continues, the markets may be learning to live with it, to a certain extent,” he said.
“But with a decisive resolution unlikely in the near term and the Fed holding the line on rate cuts, price action at the index level could remain congested.”
Trump is readying plans for industry-specific tariffs to kick in alongside his country-by-country duties in two weeks, ramping up his push to reshape the US’s standing in the global trading system by penalizing purchases from abroad.
Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of 15%-20% in any deal with the European Union, the Financial Times reported.
Meantime, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the two nations could reach a “good” trade deal while signaling the process may take more time.
“The lack of any clear damage from the tariffs, solid  earnings results, a firm job market, and consumers who keep spending are supporting the high valuations,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.

Corporate Highlights:
* The Food and Drug Administration plans to ask Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. to pause shipments of its Elevidys treatment after three deaths were linked to the company’s gene therapies, according to a person familiar with the matter.
* Humana Inc. lost a lawsuit seeking to reverse cuts to its Medicare bonus payments, a blow for the insurer that had hoped the court would restore billions in revenue.
* American Express Co.’s expenses grew in the second quarter as the firm made risk-management investments for its affluent consumers, who continued to spend amid economic uncertainty.
* Netflix Inc. beat expectations for second-quarter results and continues to trounce rival media companies, yet the shares slipped on Friday as investors took a pause after the stock has nearly doubled over the past year.
* 3M Co. raised its profit forecast and beat Wall Street’s estimates for the second quarter as Chief Executive Officer William Brown’s effort to reinvigorate the company gained momentum.
* Chevron Corp. has prevailed in a 20-month fight to buy Hess Corp. for $53 billion, overcoming a challenge by arch rival Exxon Mobil Corp. that was unprecedented in the modern history of Big Oil.
* SLB, the world’s largest oil-services provider, sees resiliency in the industry and remains constructive about the second half of 2025 despite uncertainties in customer demand.
* Interactive Brokers Group Inc. reported total net interest income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
* Charles Schwab Corp. reported earnings per share that topped estimates as the firm said client assets hit a new record and trading revenue rose.
* Ally Financial Inc. left most of its forecast unchanged despite strong second-quarter consumer auto-loan originations and earnings.
* Meta Platforms Inc. said it won’t sign the code of practice for Europe’s new set of laws governing artificial intelligence, calling the guidelines to help companies follow the AI Act overreach.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1622
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3413
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 148.73 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $117,433.01
* Ether rose 3.9% to $3,554.18
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.67%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.87%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined one basis point to m5.00%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $67.38 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,348.06 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone. 🔆

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You will never do anything in this world without courage.  It is the greatest quality of the mind next to honor. –Aristotle, 384 BCE-322 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
On this day in 1861, the first U.S. paper money payable on demand, whose color gives America’s bills the nickname “greenbacks,” was issued by the US government.
July 17, 1918: Czar Nicholas II and his family are executed.
July 17, 1950: Julious Rosenberg is arrested on suspicion of espionage.
July 17, 1955: Disneyland opened in Anaheim, Calif.  Go to article

Erotic mosaic stolen in World War II returned to Pompeii
The spicy piece may have once decorated a bedroom floor in a Roman villa.

Medals for Winter Olympics unveiled
The medals were designed to represent both Olympic and Paralympic values.

‘Smurfs’ are back on the big screen
The latest film about the little blue animated creatures will feature a star-studded cast of voices.

Scientists discover long-lost giant rivers that flowed across Antarctica up to 80 million years ago
Large flat surfaces carved by ancient rivers deep beneath East Antarctica are influencing how ice flows across the continent today, according to a new study. Read More.

‘Ice cube’ clouds discovered at the galaxy’s center shouldn’t exist — and they hint at a recent black hole explosion
Twin orbs of superhot plasma at the Milky Way’s center known as the “Fermi bubbles” contain inexplicable clouds of cold hydrogen, new research reveals. They could help scientists figure out when our galaxy’s black hole last erupted. Read More.

from The Late  Night Shows:
“As of now, Trump is keeping the information totally classified, a.k.a. in the bathroom at Mar-a-Lago,” Jimmy Fallon said of the so-called Epstein files.

“Yeah, the excuses are getting worse and worse. Today, Trump was, like, ‘A dog ate the Epstein files, then people in Ohio ate the dog.’” — JIMMY FALLON.

“Yeah, they’re burning the MAGA hats. People in China were like, ‘Oh, come on, we worked so hard making them.’” — JIMMY FALLON

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Malé, Maldives
Construction work continues at the Thilamalé Bridge project, which aims to link the capital with the islands of Villingili, Gulhifalhu, and Thilafushi
Photograph: Mohamed Afrah/AFP/Getty Images

Tokyo, Japan
An image of a nebula is reflected on a window at Shibuya Sky, an observation deck in the Shibuya district. The light production Inner Nebulas runs until September
Photograph: Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images

Tower Bridge, London
‘Mind the gap – sailing under Tower Bridge just as it is opening.’
Photograph: Joanna Rimmer
Market Closes for July 17^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44484.49	+229.71
		+0.52%
S&P 500	6297.36	+33.66
		+0.54%
NASDAQ	20885.65	+155.16
		+0.75%
TSX	27386.93	+233.96
		+0.86%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39901.19	+237.79
		+0.60%
HANG SENG	24498.95	-18.81
		-0.08%
SENSEX	82259.24	-375.24
		-0.45%
FTSE 100*	8972.64	+46.09
		+0.52%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.567	3.581
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.878	3.890
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4513	4.4553
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0072	5.0104

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7277	0.7305
US $	1.3741	1.3689

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5964	0.6264
US $	1.1617	0.8608

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3323.80	3345.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.54	66.38

Market Commentary:
In the end, all business operations can be reduced to three words: people, product, and profits. -Lee Iacocca, 1924-2019.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.9%, or 233.96 to 27,386.93 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1% on May 2.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 119 of 213 shares rose, while 92 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 6.2%. Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 11.4%.

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended May 16
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.4% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and rose 3.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.39t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.26% compared with 5.84% in the previous session and the average of 6.13% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 101.1218| 3.8| 8/1
Financials | 90.6641| 1.0| 19/6
Consumer Staples | 26.0712| 2.6| 5/5
Energy | 14.5800| 0.3| 27/13
Consumer Discretionary | 12.7477| 1.4| 8/1
Industrials | 2.4301| 0.1| 16/13
Real Estate | 0.6220| 0.1| 6/12
Health Care | 0.0618| 0.1| 2/1
Utilities | -0.3762| 0.0| 7/8
Communication Services | -3.1100| -0.5| 2/3
Materials | -10.8472| -0.3| 19/29
Shopify | 85.9000| 6.2| 35.6| 13.9
Brookfield Corp | 36.5900| 4.1| 45.9| 13.4
Couche-Tard | 30.8600| 8.3| 359.6| -7.2
Fairfax Financial | -4.9620| -1.4| -3.4| 20.7
Enbridge | -5.0280| -0.5| -10.7| 0.9
Barrick Mining | -5.2880| -1.5| 14.3| 28.3
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange moved higher Thursday afternoon, closing at a fresh record even as trade-war woes continue after U.S. President Donald Trump said he aims to put tariffs of 10% or 15% on over 150 countries.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 233.37 points at 27,386.34, topping the previous high, set Monday, of 27,198.85.
Most sectors were up, with Information Technology and Financials the biggest gainers, rising 7.6% and 5.9%, respectively, while Telecoms was the biggest decliner on the day, down 0.7%.
Scotiabank economists, including Jean-Francois Perrault, said recent data and fiscal announcements in both Canada and the United States suggest slightly stronger economic growth than previously expected, although both economies are still projected to expand below their potential due to trade uncertainty.
They added that inflation pressures are likely to prevent central banks from cutting rates, so Scotiabank is maintaining its view that both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve will hold off on rate changes for the rest of the year.
“Our forecast does not reflect recent trade pronouncements in the U.S. We will wait until policies take effect before reflecting those in our forecasts.
There is simply too much uncertainty about the way forward on trade to build those into our forecasts now,” the economists said.
In Canada, growth appears more resilient than anticipated.
Job creation was strong in June and existing home sales have been rising, suggesting some recovery in the housing market.
“This is not to say the economy is strong, it remains weak across a broad range of indicators, but on balance, the economy is less weak than we had earlier assumed,” they said.
Trade talks remain a key factor in the outlook, but the latest threat to raise tariffs on non-CUSMA exports to the United States from 25% to 35% would likely have only a limited overall impact on the Canadian economy if implemented, they added.
In the US, while trade-related risks remain unresolved, fiscal policy from the recent “One Big Beautiful” budgetary law offers some stimulus.
However, this poses challenges for inflation management and fiscal sustainability.
Political tensions around Federal Reserve Chair Powell add to financial market uncertainty.
“For the moment, the US economy is weakening less rapidly, and equity markets have been stronger than expected, as is the case in Canada.
We have revised up our forecasts for growth modestly this year and next, with growth of around 1.5 per cent this year and next now expected.
The outlook continues to reflect negative impacts of tariffs and policy uncertainty, which, as noted above, could lead to downward revisions to growth once there is more clarity about the policy environment,” the economists said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Thursday, pushed up by tightening supply and haven buying on renewed Middle East violence.
WTI oil for August delivery closed US$1.16 to settle at US$67.54 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen up $0.80 to US$69.32.
Gold traded lower on Thursday as the dollar moved up after U.S. retail sales rose above expectations last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$16.30 to US$3.342.80 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Signs that the world’s largest economy is holding up lifted stocks a day after speculation about the fate of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell rattled markets.
The dollar climbed.
Short-dated bonds fell.
The crypto industry got a major win after Congress passed the stablecoin bill.
Economically sensitive shares outperformed after solid retail sales and a drop in jobless claims, with the S&P 500 briefly topping 6,300 and closing at an all-time high.
The Russell 2000 gauge of small firms rose 1.2%.
Tech rallied as a bullish outlook from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. bolstered confidence in artificial-intelligence spending.
In late hours, Netflix Inc. reported strong earnings and raised its forecast.
After a brief pause, the greenback resumed its advance for July – which is set to be its best month in 2025.
Treasury two- year yields rose while those on 30-year bonds were little changed.
Money markets continued to price fewer than two Fed rate cuts this year.
US retail sales saw a broad advance in June, tempering concerns about a retrenchment in consumer spending.
Meantime, applications for US unemployment benefits declined for a fifth straight week to the lowest since mid-April, showing a resilient job market.
“As long as the economy continues to expand and unemployment remains low, then people will continue to spend and the flywheel can keep generating higher profits, which is the engine for higher stock prices,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
To Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group, consumers seem to be over the tariff shock in April and are back at it with spending.
“Now we just need to see if the Federal Reserve has enough inflation data to communicate more clearly that September will restart the rate cutting cycle,” he said.
“The consumer came back to life in June. Other data like initial jobless claims and Philly Fed also painted the picture of a strong economy,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“While it’s good for growth overall, it makes it harder to justify rate cuts.”
Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said it’s reasonable for policymakers to plan on two rate cuts this year, emphasizing that the central bank should not wait too long before moving.
Meantime, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said officials should keep holding rates steady “for some time,” citing accelerating inflation as tariffs start to boost prices.
The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.6% in June after declines in the prior two months.
Meantime, the control-group sales — which feed into the government’s calculation of goods spending for gross domestic product — rose 0.5%, rounding out the first half of the year on a strong note.
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, while retail sales beat estimates, enthusiasm ought to be tempered somewhat given the pick-up in consumer goods prices over the month.
At Bloomberg Economics, Estelle Ou says that given price increases in several goods categories, it’s difficult to untangle whether most of the rebound is due to price increases or solid underlying demand.
She thinks the former is more likely, given low business sentiment and signs of weakness in other discretionary services spending.
“A reassuring retail sales result comes at the perfect time as earnings season kicks into gear,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“In the last earnings go-around, management reassured investors that consumer trends were solid through April and May.
However, there was a worry that consumer spending was beginning to weaken after back-to-back declines in retail sales.”
If earnings are more upbeat than expected and if management continues to tell a reassuring story about consumer spending, stocks could react favorably — even after a rally to record highs that some investors may view as overextended, Kenwell noted.
“If tariffs start to weigh on consumer spending in the months ahead, that could present risks in the second half of the year,” he said.
“For now, though, consumers are still spending — and stocks can continue to rally, particularly if earnings reflect continued underlying strength in America’s largest engine: the consumer.”
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson says he sees a bull market building in stocks.
But first the S&P 500 may drop 5% to 10% this quarter as the impact of trade policies gets reflected on corporate balance sheets.
He thinks the decline will be short lived, giving investors an attractive entry point to a rally driven by improving earnings expectations.
Relative calm prevailed a day after markets were jolted by speculation over Powell’s future before President Donald Trump downplayed the prospect of replacing him.
Still, George Saravelos at Deutsche Bank AG says concern about the Fed chairman being removed will continue to linger over markets and put pressure on the dollar and Treasuries until it is resolved.
Saravelos said this month that, if Trump were to force Powell out, the subsequent 24 hours would probably see a drop of at least 3% to 4% in the trade-weighted dollar, as well as a 30 to 40 basis point fixed-income selloff.
The idea that the Fed operates free from political pressures is a “myth” and US stocks are likely to keep soaring on bets that rate cuts are coming, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Ilan Benhamou.
Kevin Warsh, a candidate to be the next Fed chair, said independence for the central bank is “essential.”
But, he added, the Fed under Powell has strayed into policy areas where it lacks authority.
“History tells us that the independent operations in the conduct of monetary policy are essential,” Warsh said Thursday in an interview on CNBC.
“But that doesn’t mean the Fed is independent in everything else it does.”

Corporate Highlights:
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. said the second half of the year has become more predictable and suggested it may be able to beat its earnings targets.
* International growth helped buoy PepsiCo Inc.’s second quarter earnings, as the snacks and beverage giant said it plans to lean into higher-protein offerings and smaller portion sizes.
* Amazon.com Inc. is cutting jobs in its cloud-computing division, the latest big tech company to pare its headcount amid rising costs for artificial intelligence.
* T. Rowe Price Group Inc. is making a business-wide round of job cuts as the Baltimore-based asset manager grapples with outflows and other pressures.
* General Electric Co. boosted its full-year financial guidance and topped Wall Street’s profit estimates for the second quarter after rebounding demand in the aviation market softened the impact of a global trade war.
* Chevron Corp. is on the cusp of reaching a production plateau in the largest US oil field, allowing it to reap billions of dollars of additional cash flow in the next few years.
* Meta Platforms Inc. investors say they have reached a settlement with current and former directors at the company to end a multibillion-dollar case in Delaware.
* Uber Technologies Inc. is teaming up with electric vehicle maker Lucid Group Inc. and self-driving tech startup Nuro Inc. to launch a robotaxi fleet.
* Waymo is more than doubling its service territory in Austin as the driverless taxi firm looks to fend off competition from Tesla Inc.
* U.S. Bancorp reported net interest income that missed estimates in the first earnings report under new Chief Executive Officer Gunjan Kedia.
* ManpowerGroup Inc. posted quarterly profit and revenue that beat estimates and indicated the global labor market is stabilizing.
* Elevance Health Inc. cut its profit guidance for the year on higher medical costs in Affordable Care Act plans and lagging reimbursement from Medicaid, the latest in a series of disappointments from health insurers in recent months.
* Roblox Corp. is adding new safety features, including an age- estimation tool that relies on video selfies, to better protect its kid-heavy user base.
* Abbott Laboratories shares sank after the company lowered the top end of its full-year guidance.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1598
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3417
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 148.59 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $119,038.4
* Ether rose 1% to $3,414.9
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.46%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.67%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.66%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.91%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 5.01%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.9% to $67.61 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,339.90 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
People won’t have time for you if you’re always angry or complaining.-Stephen Hawking, 1942-2018.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 16, 1945: Atomic bomb tested.
July 16, 1969: Apollo 11 blasted off from Cape Kennedy on the first manned mission to the moon. Go to article.

On this day in 1997, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 8000 for the first time, just five months after breaking the 7000 mark.  As I write this, the Dow is currently at 44147.

July 16, 1934: Commuter service by seaplane begins from Oyster Bay, Long Island, to Pier II at the foot of Wall Street.

Joshua Reynolds, artist, b.1723.
Roald Amundson, explorer, b. 1872.
Ginger Rogers, dancer/actress, b. 1911.
Will Ferrell, actor, b. 1967.

Man smashes case holding Scotland’s Stone of Destiny
The suspect, who is from Australia, has been charged with “malicious mischief.”

Archaeologists unearth giant shoes near Hadrian’s Wall
The ancient shoes are calling into question what we know about Roman soldiers. 

When a chance encounter on vacation becomes a lifelong adventure
A 23-year-old librarian said she felt a “thunderbolt” when she first locked eyes with a tall, handsome yacht captain while on vacation. 

Canadian kindness breaks the internet   An ad promoting tourism in Canada has gone viral for its compassion.

‘I was floored by the data’: Psilocybin shows anti-aging properties in early study.

The psychedelic psilocybin, found in magic mushrooms, slows certain hallmarks of aging in human cells and older mice, a lab study suggests. Read More.

4,000-year-old human rib discovered high in the Pyrenees still has an arrowhead from a brutal attack
A human rib discovered high in the Pyrenees suggests that someone survived a shot in the back several millennia ago. Read More.

‘Interstellar visitor’ 3I/ATLAS could be the oldest comet ever seen — and could grow a spectacular tail later this year
New simulations have narrowed down where the newly discovered interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS likely came from, revealing it could be more than 3 billion years older than the solar system. Read More.

Penny-sized laser could help driverless cars see the world so much clearer
Researchers have created an ultrasensitive laser the size of a penny that could improve lidar technology, boosting autonomous vehicles in the process. Read More.

Giant space ‘boulders’ unleashed by NASA’s DART mission aren’t behaving as expected, revealing hidden risks of deflecting asteroids
Debris released from the asteroid Dimorphos during NASA’s DART mission has a higher momentum and less random distribution than expected, which “changes the physics we need to consider when planning these types of missions,” researchers say. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Toulouse, France
The peloton cycles past the Place du Capitole during the 11th stage of the 112th edition of the Tour de France
Photograph: Loïc Venance/AFP/Getty Images

Near Whitby, North Yorkshire‘
This field of phacelia (grown as a soil stabiliser) provided one of the many colours of summer in the Yorkshire countryside.’
Photograph: Ian Maggiore

Flamborough, East Riding of Yorkshire
‘I went early to North Landing hoping to catch a sunrise. It was a bit bland until the early morning sun lit up the chalk cliffs. I placed the boats against the light for the view.’
Photograph: David Eberlin
Market Closes for July 16^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44254.78	+231.49
		+0.53%
S&P 500	6263.70	+19.94
		+0.32%
NASDAQ	20730.49	+52.69
		+0.25%
TSX	27152.97	+98.83
		+0.37%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39663.40	-14.62
		-0.04%
HANG SENG	24517.76	-72.36
		-0.29%
SENSEX	82634.48	+63.57
		+0.8%
FTSE 100*	8926.55	-11.77
		-0.13%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.581	3.601
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.890	3.897
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4553	4.4813
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0104	5.0198

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7305	0.7288
US $	1.3689	1.3721

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5931	0.6277
US $	1.1638	0.8592

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3345.10	3351.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	66.38	66.98

Market Commentary:
A company cannot look only at turnover and profits.  There is something called reputation, and that is worth just as much as and maybe even more –
than the numbers. -Guiseppe Lavazza, b. 1965.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 27,152.97 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.5%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.0%.
Denison Mines Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.6%.
Today, 98 of 213 shares rose, while 113 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on July 15, 2025 and 25.4% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.38t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.84% compared with 5.95% in the previous session and the average of 6.13% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 65.0500| 2.5| 8/2
Consumer Staples | 6.4732| 0.7| 9/1
Consumer Discretionary | 5.4301| 0.6| 5/4
Communication Services | 1.8964| 0.3| 3/2
Health Care | -0.0638| -0.1| 1/2
Real Estate | -0.2396| 0.0| 8/10
Utilities | -0.2799| 0.0| 9/6
Industrials | -7.0714| -0.2| 17/12
Materials | -22.7428| -0.6| 10/38
Energy | -28.1105| -0.7| 9/30
Volume VS Shopify | 53.3000| 4.0| 16.7| 7.3
Brookfield Corp | 31.5700| 3.6| -22.2| 9.0
RBC | 12.6500| 0.7| 29.6| 4.2
Suncor | -4.6330| -1.0| -47.4| 4.4
Nutrien | -7.4730| -2.7| 4.7| 24.4
Canadian Natural Resources | -9.3690| -1.5| -37.9| -4.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange rose nearly 100 points as Canada reportedly looks to implement new measures to support its steel industry in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade disputes.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 98.83 points to close at 27,152.97.
Information Technology and Financial were the biggest gainers, rising 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively, while Energy was bottom of the list, down 2.9%.
RBC economist Rachel Battaglia, in her insight report about Canada’s job market, said that recent trade tensions have made existing weaknesses in Canada’s labor market worse.
After briefly improving in late 2024 and early 2025, the unemployment rate is rising again, while job vacancies continue to fall.
Although June showed a small improvement from May, it’s unlikely the jobless rate has peaked yet, she added. This trend isn’t new.
Unemployment has been increasing for nearly three years, however, the factors behind today’s job market are quite different.
After the pandemic, unemployment mostly reflected challenges new workers, like recent graduates and newcomers, faced in finding jobs.
Now, while permanent layoffs haven’t jumped much compared to a year ago, people are taking longer to find work.
There are also clearer signs of job losses in industries that depend on international trade, Battaglia said.
“Manufacturing, primary resources, transportation and warehousing, and certain services outside of public administration1 have borne the brunt of recent
employment declines. Uncertainty surrounding US trade policy appears to be driving much of the weakness, but other factors like fluctuating commodity prices and a slowdown in homebuilding are likely intensifying these challenges,” she said.
Economic uncertainty is pushing some retirees back into the job market, as unstable stock markets are causing financial stress, especially for those on fixed incomes.
This trend is reflected in the recent rise in job searches by people aged 55 and older who had recently retired, the report added.
Jason Daw, head of North American rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said, “Canada has demonstrated surprising economic resilience” with job and housing markets stabilizing after earlier weakness tied to tariff risks.
Fiscal support is also expected to continue.
With core inflation staying close to 3%, RBC believes the Bank of Canada has likely ended its rate cuts at 2.75%.
In the United States, ongoing trade uncertainty, a surprisingly steady job market, and a cautious Federal Reserve have led RBC to push its forecast for the first interest rate cut to December, with rates gradually falling to 3% by mid-2026, he added.
While neither central bank is expected to change rates in the near term, future Fed cuts could lead to a wider interest rate gap between Canada and the US in the coming months, Daw said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped for a third session on Wednesday, even as a report showed U.S. inventories fell last week.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$0.14 to settle at US$65.38 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$0.02 to US$68.69.
Gold traded higher late afternoon on Wednesday as the dollar fell after a report showed U.S. wholesale prices remained steady last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$18.10 to US$3,354.80 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Speculation about the fate of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set off a short-lived tempest in financial markets Wednesday, with volatility mostly quelled after President Donald Trump said he has no plans to fire the central bank chief and was only discussing it in “concept.”
The S&P 500 bounced as Trump said he is “not planning on doing anything” to remove Powell, after a White House official said the president was likely to seek the Fed Chair’s ouster soon.
Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, slid five basis points to 3.89%.
The dollar halted a four-day advance.
Softer-than-estimated inflation data also helped fuel the moves on Wednesday, reinforcing bets on Fed rate cuts in 2025.
Anyone hoping to discern from today’s market action how investors would treat Powell’s firing have a litany of moving parts to consider.
While the initial reaction was relatively modest, traders may have simply cast the episode as the latest political theater.
Framed as rhetorical pressure than an imminent rupture in Fed leadership, the trading action may therefore provide a poor proxy for how Wall Street would react if Trump actually removed Powell — a prospect that strategists warn would rattle global markets.
“After the president’s subsequent backing off on remarks to remove Powell, the immediate crisis may have passed, though we doubt we are entirely done with this saga,” said Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
To Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, a decision to fire the Fed chief would negatively impact markets as concerns around central bank independence would be at “the forefront of investors’ minds.”
The president’s remarks in the Oval Office left open the possibility of ousting Powell for cause.
Trump and his allies have lambasted the Fed chair over the central bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady and the cost of the central bank’s renovations of its Washington headquarters.
“The decision to fire Powell would have to make its way through the courts because he can only be fired for cause, and they have to determine if the cost overruns on the new Fed building are grounds for that,” he added.
“And now that Trump says he’s ‘not planning’ to fire Powell we have to wonder if the first story was a trial balloon to see how markets would react,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
At Academy Securities, Peter Tchir said that he’s been arguing that Trump has been emboldened after a series of “wins” – which might encourage him on this.
“But possibly more importantly, would be a sign that tariff policy is going to be more aggressive than market current thinks,” Tchir added.
“Markets are unlikely to look kindly on attempts to forcibly remove Chair Powell from office and threaten Fed independence,” said TD Securities strategists including Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg.
They view such an action as a low-probability, but high- impact event.
“We would expect markets to price in higher long-run inflation, higher term premium, more near-term Fed rate cuts (and hence lower front-end rates), increased market volatility, and a steeper yield curve,” they added.
The yield gap between 5- and 30-year Treasuries hit the highest since 2021.
President Trump has repeatedly assailed Fed chair Powell as the central bank has held off on cutting rates amid concern that tariffs may spur inflation.
And in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested Powell should step down from the central bank’s board when his term as chair is up in May 2026.
The Fed’s continued independence is “absolutely critical,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said on a conference call Tuesday.
That just doesn’t mean under Powell, whom Dimon said he respects, but also for whomever eventually succeeds him.
Meddling with the Fed “can often have adverse consequences,” Dimon said.
A Trump’s dismissal of Powell would be an underpriced risk that could trigger a selloff in the dollar and Treasuries, Deutsche Bank AG’s George Saravelos recently said.
If Trump were to force Powell out, the subsequent 24 hours would probably see a drop of at least 3% to 4% in the trade- weighted dollar, as well as a 30 to 40 basis point fixed-income selloff, Saravelos said.
The greenback and bonds would carry a “persistent” risk premium, he said, adding that investors may also grow anxious about the potential politicization of the Fed’s swap lines with other central banks.
“Investors would likely interpret such an event as a direct affront to Fed independence, putting the central bank under extreme institutional duress,” Saravelos said.
“With the Fed sitting at the pinnacle of the global dollar monetary system, it is also stating the obvious that the consequences would reverberate far beyond US borders.”
Meantime, US economic activity “increased slightly” between late May and early July, the Fed said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts.
The report also said that “uncertainty remained elevated, contributing to ongoing caution by businesses.”
“Overall business activity was up in the last month, but the outlook was slightly more pessimistic,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
“We should be watchful for signs of margin compression at the business level, financial stress via rising delinquency rates, and a sluggish housing market as inventories rise.”
Earlier Wednesday, data showed the producer price index was unchanged from a month earlier, after an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in May.
US wholesale prices rose 2.3% from a year earlier, the least since September.
“Disinflation remains, but the Fed will be undeterred in keeping rates steady until September,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.
“As long as the labor market remains strong and resilient, rates aren’t likely to move meaningfully lower.”
Money markets project a 56% chance of a cut in September, with the next reduction fully priced in by the October meeting.

Corporate Highlights:
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s stock traders posted the largest revenue haul in Wall Street history, as volatility sparked by the Trump administration’s trade war spurred a second straight record quarter for the unit.
* Morgan Stanley’s stock traders scored their best second quarter on record as the biggest US banks continue to reap the benefits of market volatility tied to President Donald Trump’s policy moves.
* Bank of America Corp.’s traders posted a record second quarter as the company reaped the benefits of volatile markets and net interest income topped analysts’ estimates.
* PNC Financial Services Group beat expectations for second- quarter net interest income, helped by an increase in loan growth.
** The bank is considering charging financial-technology companies for access to valuable customer data, following the lead of JPMorgan Chase & Co., Chief Executive Officer Bill Demchak said.
* ASML Holding NV Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet walked back his forecast that sales will grow next year, blaming trade disputes and global tensions.
* Tesla Inc. is preparing to launch a longer, six-seat version of its Model Y sport utility vehicle in China, where the carmaker has been losing ground to domestic manufacturers with fresher lineups.
* Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI, is in discussions to lease data center capacity in Saudi Arabia, according to people familiar with the matter, part of an effort to expand its infrastructure in regions offering cheap energy and political goodwill.
* Nvidia Corp. boss Jensen Huang anticipates getting the first batch of US licenses to export H20 AI chips to China soon, formally allowing the company to resume sales of a much sought- after component to the world’s top semiconductor arena.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google will debut new Pixel-branded hardware at an event on Aug. 20 in New York, with the lineup expected to include several smartphones and a smartwatch, all powered by the company’s artificial intelligence technology.
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. is creating a new strategy committee and agreed to work with Elliott Investment Management on ways to help the software company boost value.
* Johnson & Johnson beat Wall Street’s quarterly sales expectations and raised its full-year outlook, a show of confidence as the pharmaceutical industry faces the dual threats of tariffs and a crackdown on drug pricing.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 0.4%
* KBW Bank Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1635
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3416
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 147.87 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $119,181.06
* Ether rose 11% to $3,378.09
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.45%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.64%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.89%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 5.01%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $66.71 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $3,347.94 an ounce

–With assistance from Denitsa Tsekova and Isabelle Lee.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
It is not the mountain we conquer but ourselves. –Sir Edmund Hillary, 1919-2008.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: St. Swithin’s Day, England.

July 15, 2006: Twitter launches as a microblogging service, sparking a new era of social media communication.
July 15, 2010: BP stopped the flow of oil into the Gulf of Mexico after 85 days using a 75-ton cap lowered onto the well earlier in the week.

Rembrandt, artist, b. 1606.

Unreleased Beyoncé music stolen in Atlanta
Hard drives containing the tunes — and several other items — were taken from a vehicle rented by the singer’s choreographer.

German tourist describes how she got lost in the Outback
Carolina Wilga, 26, also said she was “beyond grateful to have survived” her ordeal and thanked the people who searched for her.

AMC offers 50% off ticket prices on Tuesdays and Wednesdays
Will such deep discounts bring audiences back to the theater and help revive the movie industry?

Neil Diamond gives surprise performance
Theatergoers attending the show, “The Neil Diamond Musical: A Beautiful Noise,” in Los Angeles last weekend were thrilled when the man himself led an impromptu sing-along.

1,800+: That’s how many earthquakes have shaken a remote Japanese island in the past three weeks. 

100 undiscovered galaxies may be orbiting the Milky Way, supercomputer simulations hint
Our Milky Way could have many more satellite galaxies than we’ve detected so far. They’re just too faint to be seen. Read More.

Archaeologists discover that parties 11,000 years ago were BYOB — bring your own boar
Humans have feasted since the dawn of agriculture — but a new find suggests the practice of bringing exotic food to a communal gathering is even older. Read More.

Grand Canyon Dragon wildfire burns down historic lodge and triggers toxic gas leak
Firefighters are battling a lightning-caused wildfire on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon. The Dragon Bravo Fire has burned down the Grand Canyon Lodge and triggered a chlorine gas leak. Read More.

Missed Prime Day? These camera, telescope and binocular deals are still live — just in time for the Perseids and Sturgeon moon
We’ve rounded up the best camera deals from Sony, Nikon, Canon and more — save $$$’s on your next mirrorless or DSLR camera. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Carnew, Ireland
Blarney Castle features on a knitted map of Ireland. The 12ft by 11ft work took four years of knitting and crocheting to complete
Photograph: Niall Carson/PA

Faraya, Lebanon
‘I recently went on a trip to photograph the beauty of Lebanon, a country often seen through the lens of conflict. I captured the stunning moment of the setting sun above the clouds while up in the mountains. It felt like I was photographing the soul of Lebanon.’
Photograph: Nader Kasfy

Grenoble, France
‘I took this in my kitchen. White light from a laptop screen is polarised and when any plastic is seen through a polarising filter, you get colours like this coming from the stress.’
Photograph: Robert Cubitt
Market Closes for July 15^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44023.29	-436.36
		-0.98%
S&P 500	6243.76	-24.80
		-0.40%
NASDAQ	20677.80	+37.47
		+0.18%
TSX	27054.14	-144.71
		-0.53%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39678.02	+218.40
		+0.55%
HANG SENG	24590.12	+386.80
		+1.60%
SENSEX	82570.91	+317.45
		+0.39%
FTSE 100*	8938.32	-59.74
		-0.66%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.601	3.518
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.897	3.834
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4813	4.4333
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0198	4.9770

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7288	0.7297
US $	1.3721	1.3704

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5921	0.6281
US $	1.1603	0.8618

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3351.15	3352.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	66.98	68.45

Market Commentary:
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. –Dr. Milton Friedman, 1912-2006.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.5% at 27,054.14 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on June 25 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.3%.
Richelieu Hardware Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 3.3%.
Today, 152 of 213 shares fell, while 58 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24.9% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 2.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.4t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 5.95% compared with 5.64% in the previous session and the average of 6.15% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -48.7410| -0.5| 5/20
Information Technology | -27.3368| -1.0| 3/7
Materials | -23.9688| -0.7| 15/33
Industrials | -16.7779| -0.5| 8/21
Consumer Staples | -13.3084| -1.3| 0/10
Energy | -9.1464| -0.2| 14/24
Consumer Discretionary | -8.9188| -1.0| 0/9
Real Estate | -2.0930| -0.4| 4/15
Health Care | -0.0309| 0.0| 1/2
Communication Services | 2.2176| 0.4| 2/3
Utilities | 3.3714| 0.3| 6/8
Shopify | -17.7900| -1.3| -16.8| 3.2
RBC | -12.6500| -0.7| 70.0| 3.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -8.7840| -1.4| -40.0| -3.2
TC Energy | 2.7610| 0.6| -35.7| -0.4
Brookfield Renewable Partners | 3.2730| 6.3| 124.7| 13.8
Cameco | 3.2860| 1.1| 21.2| 40.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell off a record high on Tuesday following the release of June inflation by the United States and Canada.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 144.71 points at 27,054.14, dropping off Monday’s record close of 27,198.85.
Sectors were mostly down.
Financial and Information Technology led the decliners, falling 2.9% and 2.3%, respectively.
Utilities topped the gainers, up 1.7%.
Statistics Canada reported Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% annualized in June, up from 1.7% in May, but under the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the June CPI rose 2.7% annualized, meeting expectations but up from May’s 2.4 rate.
Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 2.9% last month, up from 2.8% in May.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said the reliability of U.S. inflation data is “highly questionable,” arguably at the worst possible time for markets.
He added that there are two key reasons for this.
First, the seasonal adjustment applied to June’s core CPI data appears to have artificially suppressed the inflation reading.
The unadjusted core CPI increase for June was among the largest ever for that month, yet the seasonal adjustment factor used was the lowest on record for any June.
This kind of calculation is heavily influenced by recent trends and pandemic-era distortions, many of which are now outdated, he said.
Second, the share of the CPI basket based on estimated or proxy prices rather than actual collected data has reached 35%, up from 30% in recent months and more than double the previous record set during the height of the pandemic.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics attributes this to budget cuts under the Trump administration, which reduced the agency’s ability to collect in-person pricing data, Holt said.
“Proving that this distorts CPI is impossible, but it would stand to reason that one should be extremely guarded toward the quality of the data when so much of the basket is being inferred and will never be revised since the data has fundamentally gone AWOL,” he added.
David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, said while core inflation rose slightly less than forecast at 0.23% month-over-month, it was enough to push the year-over-year core rate to 2.9%.
“There was evidence of tariff price pass through with core goods accelerating, and this particularly apparent in the ex-used cars and trucks measure,” he added.
Looking ahead, Macquarie expects core inflation to stay elevated through the end of the year as tariff effects continue.
The firm also expects the upcoming core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation reading to be on the firmer side, with more clarity expected from tomorrow’s Producer Price Index release.
“Our view on Fed policy remains unchanged with these data. We continue to expect 25 bps in easing ahead in 2025 and a further 25 bps in 2026. Our baseline timing for the first cut is December,” Doyle said.
In connection with Canada’s CPI, he said the data is likely to give the Bank of Canada some pause after the moderation in May.
He added that inflation is expected to cool unevenly.
Higher unemployment and slower private sector wage growth should help, as will easing shelter costs due to slower population growth.
A stronger Canadian dollar could also reduce pressure from import prices.
Because of today’s data and last week’s jobs report, Macquarie now sees just two more rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points, with the next likely in October, Doyle said.
The firm previously expected three cuts, starting in July.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump declined to impose fresh sanctions on Russian oil exports, giving the country 50 days to end its war on Ukraine before imposing secondary tariffs on buyers of the country’s oil.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed US$0.46 to settle at US$66.52 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$0.45 to US$68.76.
Gold traded lower midafternoon on Tuesday along with the dollar after U.S consumer prices rose as expected in June.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$22.60 to US$3.336.50 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Relatively tame inflation data failed to ease Wall Street’s worries about the impacts of tariffs, with initial rallies in stocks and bonds sputtering on bets the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for now.
Tech shares jumped on news Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. will resume some chip sales to China, with traders also parsing results from banks.
The S&P 500 retreated after earlier topping 6,300.
A gauge of US financial giants sank as Wells Fargo & Co. cut its guidance for net interest income.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. dropped even as investment bankers eked out a surprise gain.
Citigroup Inc. hit the highest since 2008 on a stock-buyback plan.
While short-dated Treasuries led losses, longer maturities also slid – with 30-year yields topping 5%.
The dollar rose 0.4%.
Underlying US inflation rose by less than expected for a fifth month in June even as the details signaled companies are beginning to pass some tariff-related costs more meaningfully to consumers.
Traders priced in somewhat lower odds that the Fed will cut rates more than once this year, and the probability of a move in September is now seen as only slightly higher than 50%.
“The big question for the inflation picture is tariffs. It’s taking some time for tariffs to show up in the data, but it’s highly likely that a tariff-driven inflation reckoning is coming,” said Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital.
“The Fed will want to watch the next several inflation and jobs reports before it makes any moves on rates.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that Fed Chair Jerome Powell should step down from the board when his term is up in May 2026.
Asked whether President Donald Trump has asked Bessent himself to serve as Fed chair, the Treasury chief said, “I am part of the decision-making process.”
He noted that “it’s President Trump’s decision, and it will move at his speed.”
The consumer price index, excluding the often-volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from May.
While a decline in car prices helped keep a lid on the figure, goods categories exposed to Trump’s levies including toys and appliances rose at the fastest paces in years.
To Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, inflation has begun to show the first signs of tariff pass- through.
While services inflation continues to moderate, the acceleration in tariff-exposed goods is likely the first of greater price pressures to come, she said.
“While any tariff-induced boost to inflation is likely to be short-lived, with higher tariffs being announced, it would be wise for the Fed to remain on the sidelines for a few more months at least,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
At Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Kay Haigh notes that while underlying inflation remained muted, price pressures are expected to strengthen — and the July and August CPI reports will be important hurdles to clear.
“For the time being, the Fed remains in wait-and-see mode,” Haigh said.
“Should underlying inflation, however, continue to prove benign the path remains open to a resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle in the autumn.”
Traders this month have whittled the odds of Fed easing.
Strong June employment data released July 3 led them to rule out a cut after the next meeting concludes July 30 and to downgrade the chances of a September cut, which was fully priced in as recently as late June.
Given recent trade policy developments, the Fed will likely look to stay patient as inflation impacts continue to materialize, according to Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“Today’s report showed the beginning of the tariff passthrough into core goods inflation, and as long as the labor market remains strong, the Fed can afford to wait and see how inflation and inflation expectations evolve over the summer,” they said.
To Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co., despite a firmer core CPI in June relative to May, Fed officials will likely welcome this report – higher tariff related goods inflation justifies their more cautious stance, while continued disinflation across services categories should support rate cuts in September and beyond.
“We believe the fact that inflation is more concentrated in core goods categories will make it easier for the Fed to communicate why they are cutting rates while inflation is above target,” she noted.
“If you believe the economy is hobbling along, then you have a case for thinking price pressures will disappear soon,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“But for now, they’re here, and curious minds may start wandering down the rabbit hole of how far inflation could go.”
Cox says the next few weeks could shift these summer markets into a higher gear.
“It’s time for the bulls to bring the receipts before we settle in for another sleepy August,” she said.
“Eventually, we need to see fundamentals back up these prices.  I’m interested to see if the data can get us there.”
Fund managers have rushed back into risky assets at a record pace on optimism over economic growth and strong corporate profits, according to a monthly survey by Bank of America Corp.
The share of investors taking a higher-than-normal risk level in their portfolios registered the biggest increase over a three-month span going back to 2001, the poll showed.
BofA strategist Michael Hartnett said that he doesn’t expect a big pullback in stocks over the summer, adding that exposure to equities is not yet “extreme” and bond volatility is still low.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. has struck a $500 million deal to buy rare-earth minerals from MP Materials Corp., the US producer that just last week secured backing from the Pentagon.
* Tesla Inc. opened its first India showroom, showcasing Model Y cars with a starting price of nearly $70,000, as Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker looks to tap new markets and offset slowing sales where it’s already well established.
* Air taxi startup Joby Aviation Inc. plans to double aircraft output capacity at its main production site in California, just weeks after completing piloted test flights in Dubai.
* CoreWeave Inc., a provider of AI computing power to companies including OpenAI Inc. and Microsoft Corp., said it plans to invest as much as $6 billion to set up a data center in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, as the firm expands its capacity across the US.
* BlackRock Inc.’s revenue and performance fees missed estimates, even as the world’s largest money manager hit a record $12.5 trillion in assets.
* Bank of New York Mellon Corp.’s second-quarter profit surpassed analyst expectations as the bank continued to reinvest maturing securities at higher yields, fueling a 9% increase in revenue.
* Uber Technologies Inc. and Baidu Inc. plan to launch robotaxis on the ride-sharing platform in several markets outside of the US and mainland China through a multiyear partnership.
* Georgia regulators approved a plan that opens the door for Southern Co. to boost spending by as much as $15 billion to deliver a projected surge of electricity for data centers, new factories and electric vehicles.
* Albertsons Cos. raised its sales forecast for the full year but left its earnings outlook unchanged amid pressure on margins.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2%
* KBW Bank Index fell 2.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1601
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3386
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 148.86 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.1% to $116,443.69
* Ether rose 1.3% to $3,043.13
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.62%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $66.69 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,330.65 an ounce

–With assistance from Julien Ponthus.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It’s not what we do once in a while that shapes our lives.  It’s what we do consistently. –Tony Robbins, b. 1960.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  Bastille Day today.
July 14, 1789: Storming of the Bastille occurs in Paris, symbolizing the start of the French Revolution.
On July 13, 1977, a 25-hour blackout hit the New York City area after lightning struck upstate power lines. Go to article.

Isaac Bashevis Singer, writer, b. 1904.
Woody Guthrie, musician, b. 1912.
Gerald Ford, 38^th President, b. 1913.
Ingmar Bergman, director, b. 1918

Collapse of key Atlantic currents may be held off by newly-discovered back-up system, study finds
Rising temperatures in the North Atlantic are slowing vital currents, but a new process in the Arctic could save the day, scientists say.  Read More.

Ancient Egyptian rock art discovered near Aswan may be from the dawn of the first dynasty
Newfound rock art from ancient Egypt may shed light on the time just before the first dynasty. Read More.

The Perseids are coming — here’s how to watch the glorious meteor shower before the moon ruins the show
As many as 100 “shooting stars” per hour can be visible, but a bright moon on the peak of the Perseids on Aug. 12 and 13 means evasive action is required. Read More.

Experimental treatment for high cholesterol edits DNA in the body to reduce LDL
An experimental treatment called VERVE-102 lowers the amount of “bad” cholesterol in the blood of people with specific cholesterol-raising conditions. Read More.

Japan sets new internet speed record — it’s 4 million times faster than average US broadband speeds
A team of scientists in Japan shattered the record for the fastest internet speed by developing new fiber optics. Read More.

Wimbledon champs crowned
Tennis star Iga Świątek dominated her singles final against American Amanda Anisimova over the weekend. In the men’s division, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner won his first Wimbledon title against two-time reigning champ Carlos Alcaraz.

Guilty pleasure gatherings
“Love Island USA” is hugely popular, especially with Gen Z. But many fans aren’t just watching the reality TV show. They’re showing up for each other.

Craving some ‘SWAG’?
Justin Bieber surprised fans by dropping his first new studio album in four years.

Retire at 83? Nah!
Former Beatle Paul McCartney plans to go back on tour this September.

Man’s best (super)friend
Did you catch the new “Superman” movie over the weekend? If so, you may enjoy reading more about that furry scene stealer, Krypto.

‘Can’t beat the view’ 
Astronauts Nichole Ayers and Anne McClain reveal what life is like aboard the International Space Station.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Your Hand in Mine
Shows a physical process in action (eg aurora, wave motion, volcanism). Standing silently on the tiled siltstone of the ‘tessellated pavement’, this couple watched the immense geomagnetic phenomenon we call the aurora australis exploding in the sky above them. The pavement, comprising 250-280m year old rocks, slowly morphed into patterns that look astoundingly manmade, due to Earth’s movement and jointing combined with continual sea salt erosion.
Photograph: Jordan Cripps

In a new light: an infrared perspective of Australia’s capital – in pictures
Photographer Mick Tsikas has turned his camera capable of capturing hidden infrared light in Canberra. The result underscores how lush the national capital is
Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Nevsehir, Turkey
Hot air balloons take off at sunrise, creating stunning views over the valleys of Cappadocia
Photograph: Behcet Alkan/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 14^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44459.65	+88.14
		+0.20%
S&P 500	6268.56	+8.81
		+0.14%
NASDAQ	20640.33	+54.80
		+0.27%
TSX	27198.85	+175.60
		+0.65%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39459.62	-110.06
		-0.28%
HANG SENG	24203.32	+63.75
		+0.26%
SENSEX	82253.46	-247.01
		-0.30%
FTSE 100*	8998.06	+56.94
		+0.64%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.518	3.500
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.834	3.809
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4333	4.4093
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9770	4.9491

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7297	0.7304
US $	1.3704	1.3691

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5987	0.6255
US $	1.1665	0.8572

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3352.10	3312.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.45	68.45

Market Commentary:
The dollar is our currency but your problem.  –US Treasury Secretary John Connally, 1971.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 27,198.85 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.7% on June 26 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.3%.
Thomson Reuters Corp. had the largest increase, rising 7.7%.
Today, 143 of 213 shares rose, while 61 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 25.6% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 2.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.37t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.64% compared with 5.81% in the previous session and the average of 6.16% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 70.5813| 2.7| 9/0
Energy | 37.0551| 0.9| 27/10
Industrials | 31.1585| 0.9| 22/7
Financials | 26.9665| 0.3| 20/5
Consumer Staples | 6.7661| 0.7| 7/2
Utilities | 4.6678| 0.5| 12/2
Real Estate | 3.9560| 0.8| 18/1
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4984| 0.4| 6/3
Health Care | -0.0041| 0.0| 2/1
Communication Services | -1.1478| -0.2| 1/4
Materials | -7.8776| -0.2| 19/26
Shopify | 55.6000| 4.3| 17.1| 4.5
Thomson Reuters | 19.9100| 7.7| 355.7| 27.2
Enbridge | 14.4700| 1.6| 43.4| 1.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -4.9780| -0.8| -53.3| -1.8
Canadian National | -5.9530| -1.1| -35.9| -2.5
CIBC | -6.9650| -1.1| -22.1| 8.9
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a fresh record high on Monday following last week’s announcement of 35% U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 175.60 points at 27,198.85, topping the previous high, set Thursday, of 27,082.3.
Information Technology and Industrials led the sectors, rising 5.4% and 4.6%, respectively.
Base Metals was the biggest decliner, down 1.6%.
BMO’s Chief Investment Strategist Brian Belski, in his ‘Canadian Strategy Snapshot’ noted that since the market’s recent low in early April, the bank’s models show a clear broadening of performance across Canadian equities.
Notably, valuation and capital usage factors showed a “reversal quarter,” and are now ahead year-to-date-signaling a shift toward a more balanced and rational market environment.
“We expect this dynamic to proceed throughout the remainder of 2025 as the heightened rhetoric and fear-driven melee surrounding tariffs and macro uncertainty continues to abate,” Belski said, adding that investors should stay focused on long-term strategies, particularly GARP-style (growth at a reasonable price) approaches that combine growth, value, and quality.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said markets are showing mild risk-off sentiment to start a busy week, with several potential factors at play.
North American equity futures are slightly lower, down about 0.25% in the U.S. and even less in Canada.
In currencies, the picture is also mixed.
While the U.S. dollar remains strong, other major currencies like the yen, euro, and Canadian dollar are also holding their ground.
The Canadian dollar is likely still benefiting from Friday’s strong jobs report.
Sovereign bond markets are reacting in varied ways, with U.S. and Canadian yields edging higher, while UK gilts and European government bonds are seeing a bull steepening, he added.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Monday on rising supply and the threat of slowing global economies as U.S President Donald Trump renewed his tariff threats.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$1.47 to settle at US$66.98 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen down US$1.04 to US$69.32.
Gold edged lower midafternoon on Monday as the dollar rose for a sixth-straight session.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$7.00 to US$3,357.00 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders parsing Donald Trump’s latest tariff remarks sent stocks mildly higher, with the market gearing up for results from big banks and inflation data.
Bond yields and the dollar edged up.
Oil fell as the US president’s plan to pressure Russia into a ceasefire with Ukraine didn’t include new measures aimed directly at hindering Moscow’s energy exports.
The S&P 500 hovered near its record as Trump indicated he’s open to trade talks, even as he insisted the letters threatening new rates are “the deals.”
While Corporate America is bracing for its weakest earnings season since mid-2023, lower estimates could be easier for companies to beat.
As US financial giants kick off earnings season Tuesday, strategists say subdued profit expectations are setting the stage for their sizzling run to continue.
President Trump unleashed more tariff threats this weekend, declaring a 30% rate for Mexico and the European Union, and informing key trading partners of new rates that will kick in on Aug. 1 if they cannot negotiate better terms.
“We view the latest move from the White House as a negotiating tactic and maintain our base case that the US effective tariff rate will settle around 15%, which we believe will allow the S&P 500 to rise further over the coming 12 months,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
A 22V Research survey showed investors see the average effective tariff rate at 17%.
They also estimate tariffs will add 28 basis points to core inflation in 2025.
This is almost half of what was expected last month.
In the run-up to the consumer price index, Treasuries saw mild losses.
After months of seeing little inflation, the CPI probably experienced slightly faster growth in June as companies started to pass along the higher cost of imported merchandise associated with tariffs.
The moves in bonds also reflected investor concern about governments’ abilities to contain budget deficits.
Bitcoin briefly topped $120,000.
“The stock market’s muted reaction to the latest volley of tariff headlines suggests investors may be growing numb to them or are deciding that the tariff bark will likely be worse than the eventual bite,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
To Emily Bowersock Hill, investors have become inured to the tariff drama, arguably to the point of complacency, and the S&P 500 is now overpriced.
“Absent a negative surprise, we expect the complacency to continue, particularly given the equity market’s upward momentum,” said the founding partner of Bowersock Capital Partners.
After months of seeing little inflation, June’s consumer price index probably experienced slightly faster growth as companies started to pass along the higher cost of imported merchandise associated with tariffs.
“Inflation pressures have remained muted so far, but tariffs will eventually feed through pushing prints higher and creating some discomfort for the Fed,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
Meantime, the survey from 22V Research also showed that 67% of investors think core CPI is on a Fed friendly glide path.
In addition, 42% of investors believe that the market reaction to CPI will be “risk-on,” 29% said “mixed” and 29% “risk-off.”
“I don’t think people are viewing any of the data points expected over this week as being materially indicative of how to position portfolios,” said Josh Rubin at Thornburg Investment Management.
“We’re still in a waiting game around tariff policies as well as additional inflation and employment data that could influence Fed decision-making, and broader geopolitical developments, which are also in a quiet period.”
Rubin notes that activity naturally slows down during the summer period, and while investors will pay attention to earnings, most won’t view them as highly indicative of companies’ future outlooks, rather waiting to hear about any updated thoughts on tariff policy.
“We are not out of the woods just yet, as the next few weeks will be pivotal to see how countries respond to the administration’s new Aug. 1 tariff deadline,” said Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management.
“The big question for markets in the coming weeks is if earnings, which are expected to be solid, can overshadow the tariff issues.”
Investors already expect a sluggish second quarter, so the bigger risk may be to the back half of the year, according to Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“Will management again tell a good story about the consumer and its customers, providing some stability (or even upward revisions) to third and fourth-quarter earnings?” he said.
“If so, stocks could react favorably to that development.
If not though, and estimates are instead revised lower, stocks may decline as they reflect this new reality.”
US mega caps are attractive as they’re likely to be boosted by the fiscal spending bill as well as a robust earnings outlook, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
Meantime, RBC Capital Markets strategists including Lori Calvasina lifted their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,250 from 5,730.
The new level “is midway between the median and average of five different models,” they said.
“We still see a wide range of outcomes in our modeling which we think reflects a high degree of uncertainty.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. shareholders will vote on whether to invest in Elon Musk’s xAI, the billionaire said, after the Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX agreed to pump $2 billion into the artificial intelligence startup.
* Investigators of the fatal Air India crash last month have found no evidence so far that would require them to take actions over the Boeing Co. 787 aircraft or the GE engines powering it.
* Autodesk Inc. is no longer pursuing an acquisition of PTC Inc., people familiar with the matter said, which would have ranked as one of the year’s largest deals.
* Kenvue Inc. said Chief Executive Officer Thibaut Mongon will leave the company as it continues to revamp the maker of Tylenol, Neutrogena and Listerine brands.
* CoreWeave Inc. is expanding a data center that is projected to double the electricity needs of a city near Dallas, another example of the strains that artificial intelligence workloads are placing on the US power supply.
* Best Buy Co. was downgraded to neutral at Piper Sandler, which cited lack of catalysts and competition.
* Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. was cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, which cited “full valuation.”
* Huntington Bancshares Inc. agreed to buy Veritex Holdings Inc., which operates more than 30 bank branches in Texas, for $1.9 billion in an all-stock transaction.
* Chip-design software maker Synopsys Inc. secured China’s approval to buy Ansys Inc., setting the stage to close the $35 billion deal later this week.
* NIQ Global Intelligence Plc is seeking to raise as much as $1.2 billion in a US initial public offering, adding to a rush of summer listings.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4:04 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1669
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3428
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 147.73 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $119,769.05
* Ether rose 0.1% to $2,996.5
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.73%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.60%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $66.96 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,344.06 an ounce
Have a lovely day.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Believe and act as if it were impossible to fail. –Charles Kettering, 1876-1958.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

July 11, 1302: Battle of the Golden Spurs: Flemish town militias defeat French cavalry near Kortrijk, a shock victory that strengthens Flemish identity and is still commemorated today.
July 11, 1979: The abandoned U.S. space station Skylab returned to Earth, burning up in the atmosphere and showering debris over the Indian Ocean and Australia.  Go to article.
On this day in 1985, Coca-Cola announced the return of Coke Classic after the company had tried displacing the old formula with New Coke. It was such a stunning development that ABC’s Peter Jennings interrupted General Hospital with the news flash.

John Constable, artist, b. 1776.
E.B. White, writer, b. 1899.
Suzanne Vega, singer/songwriter, b. 1959.

Earth just had a freakishly short day, but the fastest day of the year is yet to come
July 9 was unusually short thanks to changes in how fast the Earth is spinning. But two other days this summer are expected to be even shorter. Read More.

Scientists discover that mysterious giant structures beneath the North Sea seemingly defy what we know about geology
Giant mounds of sand discovered beneath the North Sea off Norway may scramble what we know about a key geological process.

1,600-year-old tomb of Maya city’s first ruler unearthed in Belize
Archaeologists have discovered the tomb of the Maya king who founded the city of Caracol in what is now Belize. Read More.

‘We’re bringing back avian dinosaurs’: De-extinction company claims it will resurrect the giant moa in next 10 years
The South Island giant moa could be the next species that biotech company Colossal “brings back” from extinction — but experts say the result will not and “cannot be” a moa. Read More.

Daytime Emmy nominations revealed
Several new categories were added, including outstanding culinary cultural series, outstanding emerging talent in a daytime drama series and outstanding regional content in a daytime genre.

Gone, but not forgotten
A piece of the illegally felled Sycamore Gap tree in the UK is going on display — and you can even hug it.

The concert that showed we cared 
Nearly 40 years later, the effects of “Live Aid” are still being felt. The CNN Original Series, “Live Aid: When Rock ’n’ Roll Took on the World,” premieres at 9 p.m. ET/PT on July 13.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Harrogate, UK
Competitors wait to enter the main arena on the final day of the 166th Great Yorkshire show. The four-day event celebrates agriculture, food, farming and the countryside
Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

A wagtail catches up with the day’s tennis action on the court at the Wimbledon Championships, London, UK
Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

Where the buffalo roam … a bison stops traffic in Yellowstone national park, Wyoming, US
Photograph: Kaylee Greenlee/Reuters
Market Closes for July 11^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44371.51	-279.13
		-0.63%
S&P 500	6259.75	-20.71
		-0.33%
NASDAQ	20585.53	-45.13
		-0.22%
TSX	27023.25	-59.05
		-0.22%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39569.68	-76.68
		-0.19%
HANG SENG	24139.57	+111.20
		+0.46%
SENSEX	83190.31	-345.77
		-0.41%
FTSE 100*	8941.12	-34.54
		-0.38%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.500	3.408
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.809	3.718
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4093	4.3498
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9491	4.8694

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7304	0.7320
US $	1.3691	1.3661

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6009	0.6247
US $	1.1693	0.8552

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3312.60	3300.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.45	68.38

Market Commentary:
Iron rusts from disuse; stagnant water loses its purity and in cold weather becomes frozen; even so does inaction sap the vigor of the mind. – Leonardo da Vinci, 1452-1519.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 27,023.25 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.6%.
Enghouse Systems Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 4.1%.
Today, 101 of 213 shares fell, while 106 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended May 23
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on July 10, 2025 and 24.8% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.38t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 5.81% compared with 5.77% in the previous session and the average of 6.25% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | -51.0102| -1.9| 1/9
Financials | -49.8160| -0.6| 6/18
Industrials | -18.7748| -0.5| 7/21
Consumer Staples | -10.0769| -1.0| 2/8
Consumer Discretionary | -3.2191| -0.3| 2/7
Health Care | -0.6788| -1.0| 1/2
Communication Services | -0.0543| 0.0| 1/4
Utilities | 0.5174| 0.1| 5/8
Real Estate | 0.9876| 0.2| 11/7
Materials | 33.7235| 0.9| 35/12
Energy | 39.3541| 0.9| 35/5
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell off a record high on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impost 35% tariffs on some Canadian imports on Aug.1 offset a better than expected jobs report.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 59.05 points, finishing the week at 27,023.25.
Sectors were mixed with Information Technology and Financial leading the decliners, down 5.2% and 2.8%, respectively.
Energy topped the list, rising 3.6%.
Canadian employment increased by 83,000, or 0.4%, month-over-month, in June, and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 6.9%, according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS), while the consensus estimate expected little job growth and a rise in the unemployment rate to 7.1%.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said there are a few possibilities why employers are hiring so much despite all the trade uncertainty.
One idea is that companies are rushing to produce goods before tariffs take full effect.
But that doesn’t explain why most of the job growth is happening in the service sector, he said.
Another explanation is that Canada’s domestic economy is doing better than its trade-related sectors.
Many services are not tied to international trade, so are less affected by tariffs, Holt added.
It’s also possible that Canadians are simply spending more at home.
Restaurant activity is strong, and spending at bars and restaurants suggests people are choosing staycations instead of traveling to the United States for March break or summer holidays, keeping that money, and jobs, in Canada, he said.
National Bank economists Matthieu Arseneau and Kyle Dahms said despite the good news, some caution is needed.
The LFS, which tracks employment, may be overstating job gains as it uses a 12-month average to estimate the number of non-permanent residents.
To get a clearer picture, it is key to monitor another report called the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours, which is based on employer records.
“While signs of stabilization are welcome, it remains that tariff-related uncertainty contributed to a deterioration in the labour market during the first half of the year,” the economists said, adding that “all in all, this morning’s report makes an interest rate cut at the end of July unlikely.”
Andrew Hencic, head of TD Economics, said this is a week of two opposite signals.
On one hand, the threat of new tariffs is growing, with a key deadline on Aug. 1.
On the other, Canada’s labor market has shown signs of strength, rebounding after earlier uncertainty.
That said, inflation remains the main focus, with the next Consumer Price Index report due next week, he added.
“We expect the June CPI report to show inflation having strengthened, with both goods and services price pressures having heated up relative to May. But at this juncture, the uptick is unlikely to unnerve policymakers, particularly with inflation expectations remaining well anchored,” Hencic said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher on Friday as traders look to strong summer demand, even as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned supply is outstripping demand.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery was last seen up $1.88 to settle at US$68.45 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen up US$1.66 to US$70.30.
Gold traded higher late afternoon on Friday, rising for a third day despite a stronger dollar as safe-haven buying continues amid U.S.
President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff polices.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$45.70 to US$3,371.40 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell from all-time highs as Donald Trump intensified his trade offensive, sending the dollar to its best week since February.
Concerns about the potential inflationary impacts of tariffs weighed on Treasuries, while oil traders braced for US efforts to crimp Russian energy exports.
Following a rally that drove the S&P 500 to its fifth record in nine trading days, equity bulls took a breather.
While almost 400 shares in the benchmark retreated, gains in most mega caps pushed the market away from session lows.
Kraft Heinz Co. climbed on news reports that the company is preparing to break itself up.
The six biggest US banks are set to report earnings next week, with analysts predicting trading-revenue increases.
Trump threatened a 35% tariff on some Canadian goods and raised the prospect of increasing levies on most other countries, ramping up his trade rhetoric.
The US president told NBC News he’s also eyeing blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% on most trading partners.
The current global baseline minimum tariff rate for nearly all US trading partners is 10%.
“The stock market is looking lower due to President Trump’s more hawkish stance on tariffs,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“With the market overbought and very expensive, the market is getting ripe for some sort of a pullback.”
Longer-dated Treasuries led declines Friday, with the bond market seeing a second week of losses.
The greenback rose against most major currencies. Bitcoin topped $118,000 for the first time.
While negative trade headlines and tariff threats may multiply in the coming weeks, US trade policy will likely move toward greater stability in the second half of the year, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Our base case is that the effective US tariff rate will land near 15% by year-end, slowing the US economy over the next six months but not causing a recession,” she said.
“Many of the most heavily weighted US equities in the S&P 500 are fairly insulated from tariff risk, in our view, and we think the index can climb to 6,500 by June next year despite periodic volatility.”
The gauge closed at 6,259.75 on Friday.
Investors are counting on US stocks to rally on the back of a robust earnings season, before the market loses steam toward year-end, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.
Client feedback suggests “no one” is worried about the economy or equity valuations, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.
Meantime, Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Beata Manthey said gins in global equities will slow over the coming 12 months, adding that earnings expectations appear relatively optimistic given the “highly uncertain” outlook.
Wall Street expects very little from S&P 500 companies this earnings season, with analysts projecting S&P 500 profits to rise 2.8% year over year — the slowest growth rate since 2023, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
“We believe second quarter earnings will be good, but not as good as first quarter,” said Michael Landsberg at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management.
“Much of the second quarter was marked with tariff and trade issues and that may have caused some dislocations in earnings for certain industries as their customers may have been in a holding pattern.”
That said, Landsberg noted that he believes expectations “are a bit low” for S&P 500 earnings.
“While we do acknowledge the volatility and the unknown picture the tariffs have brought, we think earnings will be better overall than current projections. This low bar, if cleared, should be a positive for market performance,” he added.
While bulls and bears may debate the rally’s sustainability, the recent steadying of corporate profit estimates suggests the earnings season could serve as the ultimate factor in determining whether stocks can extend gains or transition into a more protracted, choppy consolidation phase,” according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“What is clear, however, is that bears are on their heels and are hesitant following a barrage of whipsaws this year,” he noted.
Historically, when the S&P 500 has surged more than 20% in two months or less — as it did in the second quarter — it has consistently been higher a year later in all 10 prior instances, with an average gain greater than 15%, Hackett said.
Meantime, volatility has collapsed, with the VIX falling below 16 earlier this week – while finishing slightly above that mark on Friday.
“Wall Street strategists continue to capitulate on their bearish shift from April, with several upgrades this week to year-end price targets,” he added.
“Sentiment and positioning are no longer pessimistic, though there are few signs of complacency, and retail and institutional buying show no signs of fading.”
Sellers are growing scarce in the US stock market, a potentially ominous sign of overconfidence.
When stocks do decline, there appears to be little conviction behind the moves: Trading volume for stocks that are falling has accounted for just 42% of total turnover on US exchanges over the past month, on average.
That’s the least since 2020, according to data compiled by Thrasher Analytics.
The phenomenon is a signal that investors may have grown overly exuberant during the market’s blistering rebound, said Andrew Thrasher, the firm’s co-founder.
It has preceded past pullbacks in stocks, with the S&P 500 dropping at least 5% in the last three instances, which occurred in 2020, 2019 and 2016, Thrasher’s data showed.
Volatility in the Treasuries market also dropped recently, with the ICE BofA MOVE Index, a measure of expected fluctuations in yields, hitting its lowest level since January 2022.
Trader attention will shift next week to inflation, with the June consumer price index due Tuesday.
At Morgan Stanley, economists led by Michael Gapen said there should be more evidence of tariff pass-through, but the overall push remains mild with some heavily tariffed goods still showing weakness.
They forecast a more meaningful tariff-related acceleration in July and August.
“It’s the numbers from August and beyond – when the full schedule of reciprocal tariffs apply – that will be the ultimate litmus test for the inflation complex,”  said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
Strategists at RBC Capital Markets pushed back their forecast for the Federal Reserve to resume easing to December from September, saying policymakers need more time to assess inflation and labor market conditions.
“‘Wait-and-see’ mode is only going to be broken by some evidence that tariff-related inflation has topped out and remains relatively contained (i.e. not spilling over into non-tariffed goods or services or impacting longer-run inflation expectations), and some further softening in labor markets,”
Blake Gwinn and Izaac Brook wrote in a note Friday.
“Neither one of these is likely to be enough on its own.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Investigators of the fatal Air India crash last month have found no evidence so far that would require them to take actions over the Boeing Co. 787 aircraft or the GE engines powering it.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. has told financial-technology companies that it will start charging fees amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars for access to their customers’ bank account information – a move that threatens to upend the industry’s business models.
* Legendary Entertainment LLC, the independent film and TV studio behind the Dune trilogy and A Minecraft Movie, is considering a takeover of Lionsgate Studios Corp., according to people familiar with the matter.
* AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. jumped after Wedbush upgraded the movie-theater operator to outperform, saying the company “is poised to benefit from a more consistent release slate over the next several quarters.”
* Capricor Therapeutics Inc. tumbled after US regulators rejected the company’s treatment for a deadly muscle disorder.
* Levi Strauss & Co. climbed after raising its revenue outlook, with the maker of 501 jeans expecting sales growth to outweigh the effect of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
* Texas Instruments Inc. was upgraded to buy at TD Cowen, which said the chipmaker is uniquely positioned as industry cycle improves.
* Tesla Inc. will open its first showroom in India on Tuesday and begin deliveries as early as next month, according to people familiar with the matter, as the Elon Musk-led electric vehicle maker looks to tap potential demand in the third-largest automobile market to counter slowing sales elsewhere.
* A group of Microsoft Corp. investors is pressuring the company to assess how effectively it identifies customers who misuse its artificial intelligence tools, a push that follows reports detailing
* Delta Air Lines Inc. has been cannibalizing new Airbus SE jets in Europe by stripping off their engines and using them to get grounded planes in the US back into service, as it seeks to overcome a shortage and avoid aircraft import tariffs.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. is tapping oil inventories stashed in US emergency reserves after the startup of a new Chevron Corp. well in the Gulf of Mexico contributed to quality issues in crude supplies coming from the region.
* BASF SE warned that earnings will come in lower than previously expected this year as US tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties crimp demand.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1688
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3498
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 147.37 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4% to $118,138.45
* Ether rose 6.6% to $3,007.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.42%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.62%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.1% to $68.65 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,356.55 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Live out your imagination, not your history. –Stephen Covey, 1932-2012.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  Full moon tonight.
July 10, 1940: The Battle of Britain begins as Germany launches air attacks on the UK, marking a pivotal air campaign of World War II.
July 10, 1985:  Coca-Cola Co., bowing to pressure from irate customers after the introduction of New Coke, said it would resume selling its old formula. Go to article
July 10, 1955: Rainbow Warrior sunk, Greenpeace.

John Calvin, founder Presbyterianism, b. 1509, Noyon, France.
Marcel Proust, writer, b. 1871,Neuilly, France.
Arthur Ashe, tennis player, b. 1943, Virginia, USA.

Ready to be moonstruck?
Keep your eyes on the horizon tonight to see the peak of July’s full buck moon.

‘I really don’t want them to go’ 
Japan’s panda town was booming. But the four bears at its local zoo really belong to China, and China wants them back.

8-year-old with rare, fatal disease shows dramatic improvement on experimental treatment
A child with a rare genetic disease that affects mitochondria is the first person to receive a new experimental treatment for the potentially life-threatening condition. Read More.

Extraordinary ‘sacrificial ass’ found with severed head from Bronze Age Israel
The nearly 5,000-year-old remains of a “sacrificial ass” and three other donkeys from a faraway land have been discovered under a Bronze Age house in Israel. Read More.

Dams around the world hold so much water they’ve shifted Earth’s poles, new research shows
Dam construction since 1835 has caused Earth’s poles to “wander” away from the planet’s rotational axis because of the massive weight of water reservoirs. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Igualada, Spain
Balloonists take part in the opening event of the 29th European balloon festival
Photograph: Enric Fontcuberta/EPA

York, England
An aerial view of this year’s York maze, which celebrates 30 years of Toy Story. The maze is the largest in the UK, made up of more than 1m maize plants in a 15-acre field
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Tottori, Japan
Visitors view a sand sculpture at the Tottori Sand Museum’s annual exhibition
Photograph: Buddhika Weerasinghe/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 10^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44650.64	+192.34
		+0.43%
S&P 500	6280.46	+17.20
		+0.27%
NASDAQ	20630.66	+19.32
		+0.09%
TSX	27082.30	+109.98
		+0.41%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39646.36	-174.92
		-0.44%
HANG SENG	24028.37	+136.05
		+0.57%
SENSEX	83190.31	-345.77
		-0.41%
FTSE 100*	8975.66	+108.64
		+1.23%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.408	3.373
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.718	3.680
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3498	4.3320
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8694	4.8684

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7320	0.7307
US $	1.3661	1.3685

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5984	0.6256
US $	1.1670	0.8547

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3300.15	3314.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.38	68.38

Market Commentary:
We can guarantee cash benefits as far out and at whatever size you like, but we cannot guarantee their purchasing power. –Alan Greenspan, Fed Chairman 1987-2006, on funding Social Security to Senate Banking Committee 2/15/05), b. 1926.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 109.98 to 27,082.30 in Toronto.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.0%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 16.3%.
Today, 128 of 213 shares rose, while 81 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 25% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.36t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.77% compared with 5.81% in the previous session and the average of 6.30% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 51.9109| 0.6| 20/5
Industrials | 27.9437| 0.8| 20/9
Energy | 13.2951| 0.3| 20/18
Information Technology | 5.6114| 0.2| 4/6
Materials | 5.5887| 0.2| 30/18
Utilities | 3.7530| 0.4| 10/5
Communication Services | 3.0574| 0.5| 3/2
Real Estate | 1.7617| 0.4| 10/7
Health Care | -0.0462| -0.1| 1/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.0868| 0.0| 6/3
Consumer Staples | -2.8185| -0.3| 4/6
Brookfield Corp | 17.4400| 2.0| -12.5| 5.7
Enbridge | 12.9500| 1.4| 88.4| -0.3
RBC | 10.2800| 0.6| 72.5| 5.2
Cameco | -3.5290| -1.2| 5.4| 31.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -4.6850| -0.7| -17.2| -2.1
Nutrien | -6.5180| -2.3| 42.4| 29.2
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a fresh record high on Thursday, pushing back above the 27,000 marks on a strong performance for the metals sector amid uncertainty over the global outlook due to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 109.98 points to 27,082.30, topping the prior record of 27,036.16 set on July 4.
Most sectors moved higher, with Base Metals and Industrials leading the gainers, rising 7% and 4.3%, respectively, while Energy fell 1.4%.
The rise comes despite uncertainty over U.S. trade policies and the potential inflationary effect of the tariffs imposed by the U.S. President, as well as their impact on growth in Canada and internationally.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank, said the bank expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep its key interest rate at 4.5% for the rest of the year.
This forecast has held up well, Holt said, as markets have lowered expectations for rate cuts in 2025, from 100 basis points earlier this year to about 50 now.
Scotiabank still believes it will be hard for the Fed to justify any rate cuts soon but remains flexible given the uncertainty in the current policy environment.
Holt added he also expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to also keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year.
Unlike the Fed, the BoC’s current policy rate of 2.75% already sits within its estimated “neutral” range of 2.25% to 3.25%.
This gives the BoC more flexibility in its decisions, although trade remains an important factor for the Canadian economy.
Despite some signs of economic slowdown over the past one-and-a-half years, inflation, especially the BoC’s preferred core measures, remains too high for rate cuts to be seriously considered, Holt noted, suggesting that other forces are keeping inflation elevated, even as the economy loses a bit of momentum, he said.
There are risks to growth that could help reduce inflation over time.
However, how much impact these risks have, especially from tariffs, depends on whether trade restrictions are temporary or permanent.
“It remains premature to judge this, given the Trump administration’s erratic ways, and therefore, easing pre-emptively ahead of greater slack cannot be done with confidence.
If temporary, then growth faces little to no sustained deviation from a baseline shock scenario.
If persistent, then greater disinflationary slack could emerge,” Holt said.
He added that fiscal policy might also play a role.
A “strongly expansionary” federal budget is expected this fall, which could boost the economy in ways like a rate cut.
The BoC is watching this closely.
With interest rates already at a neutral level, and the risk of doing too much stimulus if trade tensions fade, the BoC is likely being cautious to avoid repeating the mistake of overreacting, as happened in the aftermath of the pandemic.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell for the first time in four sessions on Thursday on rising U.S. inventories and expectations capricious U.S. tariff policies are likely to slow global growth.
WTI oil for August delivery closed US$1.81 to settle at US$66.57 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$1.56 to US$68.63.
Gold traded higher for a second day late afternoon on Thursday on haven demand and concerns over U.S. tariff policies even as the dollar and treasury yields rose.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$12.50 to US$3,333.50 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Relative calm enveloped Wall Street, with stocks rising as traders parsed a batch of corporate outlooks.
Treasuries bounced from session lows as a $22 billion sale of 30-year bonds showed appetite for longer-term debt despite concerns about the US deficit and the impacts of tariffs.
Just a few days ahead of the unofficial start of the earnings season that will bring results from big banks, an upbeat forecast from Delta Air Lines Inc. lifted the industry.
The S&P 500 hit a record, approaching 6,300.
Tesla Inc. jumped on plans to expand its Robotaxi service to California and Arizona.
Nvidia Corp.’s value topped $4 trillion.
The chipmaker’s chief Jensen Huang was said to meet with President Donald Trump before a planned trip to China.
Read: July’s 30-Year Treasury Auction Garners Record Direct Demand Treasury 10-year yields rose one basis point to 4.34%, while those on 30-year bonds were little changed at 4.86%.
Thursday’s debt auction was awarded at 4.889% vs a 4.890% when- issued yield at the 1 p.m.
New York time bidding deadline.
A drop in jobless claims in a period that included the Independence Day holiday was taken in stride.
The dollar wavered.
Markets are caught up in a mix of sometimes contradictory risks surrounding the tariff rollout, fiscal policy, and the outlook for the Federal Reserve.
Trump’s flurry of new warnings has\-done little to rattle trading as they did when the “reciprocal tariffs” were announced in April, with investors focusing on the overall extension of the deadline to Aug. 1.
Speaking in Dublin, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief Jamie Dimon warned markets are complacent on tariffs.
He also said it is important that an agreement is reached between the European Union and the US, adding that a tariff framework “needs to get done.”
“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by Aug. 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible,” said Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report.
“The practical impact of this consistently delayed tariff policy is to reduce the chances of a September rate cut, which could leave rates higher for longer and increase the chances of an economic slowdown.”
Read: Fed’s Waller Says Balance Sheet Can Drop to About $5.8 Trillion Fed Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said he sees upside risks to inflation, but it’s too early to know whether tariffs will have a persistent impact on prices.
His San Francisco counterpart Mary Daly said she still views two rate cuts as likely this year and sees a greater chance that the price effects from tariffs may be more muted than anticipated.
Policymakers have held borrowing costs steady this year, but a divide has emerged over how many rate cuts officials expect in 2025.
Fed officials will meet next July 29-30.
Based on pricing in futures contracts, traders currently expect the central bank to slash rates twice this year.
“While there will likely be no shortage of announcements coming out of the White House in the coming weeks, it’s unlikely the new August 1 deadline will be the end of the tariff story,” -said Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
And with a new earnings season around the corner, investors may want to focus on stocks with the potential for upside surprises in profits and cash flow, while also diversifying into international stocks, commodities, energy infrastructure, and hedge funds, he noted.
“More tariff clarity should emerge as trade talks continue,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Declines in policy uncertainty have historically been positive for stocks, and we think US trade policy will move toward greater stability in the second half of the year.”
Read: ‘The Worst Is Past’ Must Be the Message This Earnings Season “The remarkable resilience of the US consumer – and in turn US companies – was the hero of the first half,” said Kristy Akullian, head of iShares Investment Strategy, Americas.
“Going into Q2 earnings season, stocks could get an added boost from low expectations.”
Wall Street expects very little from S&P 500 companies this earnings season, forecasting just 2% growth and a margin dip for the second quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Gina Martin Adams and Wendy Soong.
“While it’s a very low bar — indeed, the weakest growth in two years — the market may still need confirmation that profit momentum will only get better in the second half,” they said.
“Our guidance model suggests earnings should easily clear consensus, reinforcing the case for a recovery narrative to take hold.”
Risk assets are set to remain supported, with lower sensitivity to tariffs and the second-quarter reporting season as key catalysts, HSBC strategists led by Max Kettner said.
They recommend increasing the overweight to equities further, now with a preference for the US.
“Aside from still supportive investor positioning, we think the bearish narrative on the Q2 reporting season is misplaced,” they said.
“The weaker USD, improved company guidance, and low expectations are more than sufficient for positive surprises.
Following this week’s renewed tariff announcements, any cuts to these rates would likely be taken as positive too.”
A noticeable shift has been reshaping US equities in the month of July: Some of the biggest laggards from the first half are now outperforming, while the year’s early winners are falling out of favor.
Investors are taking profits and pivoting into underperforming sectors, fueling a reversal that’s turned energy — one of the biggest losers in the S&P 500 Index in the first six months of the year — into July’s top gainer, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, communication services have swung from second-best gainer in the first half to the worst performer this month.
Investors should stay away from a one-sided allocation to either defensive or cyclical stocks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists including Ryan Hammond.
“While the overall technical trend remains positive for US equities, our proprietary cycle analysis currently implies a window of potential volatility to open beginning in late-July and lasting into October,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“Our work does not call for a structural downturn/secular bear market to start this year, but it does suggest that we could see more corrective periods.”
Wantrobski also noted that bullish sentiment and positioning are elevated, charts are overbought, seasonality looms ahead in the coming weeks, and headline risk remains high in this environment.
“It’s been a steady climb, with several tailwinds lifting sentiment along the way,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“But with uncertainty over the US trade policy lingering, the US markets are in need of a fresh catalyst for the next leg up, you’d feel.”
Consequently, Razaqzada says investors shouldn’t be surprised if we see a bit of consolidation or a retracement from fresh highs.

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. will hold its annual shareholder meeting Nov. 6, the company said in a new filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
** Elon Musk said his AI startup’s chatbot will be coming to Tesla vehicles.
* Apple Inc. is planning an ambitious pipeline of new products for release during the first half of 2026, including a new low- end iPhone, multiple iPads and upgraded Macs.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. reinstated a profit outlook for the year and said travelers are coming back, prompting its stock to surge amid a fresh sense of confidence in the beaten-down US consumer.
* Conagra Brands Inc. pointed to rising costs from US tariffs as the packaged food company forecast profit for this fiscal year below Wall Street’s expectations.
* Levi Strauss & Co. raised its revenue outlook, with the maker of 501 jeans expecting sales growth to outweigh the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
* Ralph Lauren Corp. Chief Executive Officer Patrice Louvet said demand for its signature clothing such as cable-knit sweaters remains strong, even as the fashion industry is buffeted by tariffs and an economic slowdown.
* Helen of Troy Ltd. tumbled after the consumer-products company reported net sales for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate and issued a weaker-than-expected forecast for the second quarter.
* Ferrero International SA agreed to acquire WK Kellogg Co. for an enterprise value of $3.1 billion, pushing the Italian family- owned candy business further into the lucrative US market.
* US regulators approved Moderna Inc.’s Covid vaccine for children, but for a narrower group than before.
* Autodesk Inc. is weighing an acquisition of rival engineering- software provider PTC Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s revenue rose a better-than-anticipated 39% in the June quarter, buoying expectations for a sustained post-ChatGPT boom in AI spending.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1695
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3576
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 146.25 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $113,381.15
* Ether rose 2.9% to $2,817.59
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.60%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.86%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $66.88 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,324.63 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood. -Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1803-1882.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

July 9, 1816: Argentina declares independence from Spain, establishing itself as a sovereign nation.
July 9, 1893: First successful open-heart surgery.
July 9, 2004: A Senate Intelligence Committee report concluded the CIA had provided unfounded assessments of the threat posed by Iraq that the Bush administration relied on  to justify going to war.  Go to article.

Nikola Tesla, inventor, b. 1856.
Otto Respighi, composer, b. 1879.
Tom Hanks, actor, b. 1956.
Courtney Love, singer, b. 1964.

Why were the Texas flash floods so catastrophic?
More than 100 people have died in devastating flash floods in Kerr County, Texas. But what caused this extreme weather, and will events like this get more common? Read More.

Buck Moon 2025: How to spot the year’s farthest full moon from the sun
July’s full “Buck Moon” will be at its fullest on Thursday, July 10, and will be best seen at moonrise. It is the farthest full moon from the sun all year and one of the lowest in the sky. Read More.

Whooo’s there? James Webb telescope spots ‘Cosmic Owl,’ super-rare structure formed from colliding ring galaxies
Located billions of light-years away, the “Cosmic Owl” is a pair of colliding ring galaxies spotted by the JWST. It’s also an “exceptional natural laboratory” for studying how galaxies evolve. Read More.

The $23 million idea
A group of leading tech companies plans to train 400,000 teachers on how to use artificial intelligence.

‘I’m quite happy’
After nearly 60 years in Hollywood, two-time Oscar-winning actor Michael Douglas says he’s pretty much done with performing.

You can’t please everyone
Like all actors, Jesse Tyler Ferguson is used to receiving criticism for his work. But the “Modern Family” star recently revealed who his loudest critics were.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Buenos Aires, Argentina
City skyscrapers rising above the fog
Photograph: Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images

A newly hatched spotted sandpiper chick gets its feet wet while foraging along the bank of the Umpqua River near Elkton, Oregon, US. In this species, it’s typically the male that takes on most of the parenting duties, incubating the eggs and caring for the young. The chicks are able to walk and feed themselves within hours of hatching, though they remain under the watchful eye of their father for several weeks
Photograph: Robin Loznak/Zuma Press Wire/Shutterstock

Flamingos preparing to take flight are reflected on Lake Tuz, which hosts thousands of flamingos every year, in Ankara, Turkey. This year, the lake has seen a decline in flamingo numbers due to drought, prompting the birds to shift their migration route to other wetlands across Turkey
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 9^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44458.30	+217.54
		+0.49%
S&P 500	6263.26	+37.74
		+0.61%
NASDAQ	20611.34	+192.88
		+0.94%
TSX	26972.32	+68.75
		+0.26%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39821.28	+132.47
		+0.33%
HANG SENG	23892.32	-255.75
		-1.06%
SENSEX	83536.08	-176.43
		-0.21%
FTSE 100*	8867.02	+12.84
		+0.14%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.373	3.430
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.680	3.728
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3320	4.3992
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8684	4.9244

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7307	0.7318
US $	1.3685	1.3664

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6045	0.6232
US $	1.1726	0.8528

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3314.75	3315.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.38	68.33

Market Commentary:
It is totally unproductive to think the world has been unfair to you.  Every tough stretch is an opportunity. -Charlie Munger, 1924-2023, Vice -Chairman Berkshire Hathaway, 2007 Wesco Annual Meeting.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3% at 26,972.32 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.6%.
Endeavour Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 9.1%.
Today, 123 of 213 shares rose, while 86 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on July 7, 2025, and 24.5% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-monthbasis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.35t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 5.81% compared with 5.79% in the previous session and the average of 6.35% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 29.3490| 0.8| 34/12
Information Technology | 20.3887| 0.8| 4/6
Financials | 18.5199| 0.2| 14/11
Industrials | 13.7237| 0.4| 21/8
Consumer Discretionary | 3.9006| 0.4| 5/4
Consumer Staples | 2.6414| 0.3| 6/4
Real Estate | 2.3042| 0.5| 13/5
Utilities | 1.6120| 0.2| 11/4
Health Care | -0.0782| -0.1| 2/1
Communication Services | -0.6521| -0.1| 2/3
Energy | -22.9417| -0.5| 11/28
Shopify | 21.2800| 1.6| -3.7| 2.3
CIBC | 9.7900| 1.5| 0.8| 9.5
Wheaton Precious Metals | 9.3570| 2.5| 6.3| 50.3
Brookfield Corp | -3.4080| -0.4| 11.8| 3.6
TC Energy | -6.4670| -1.4| -16.4| -4.8
Enbridge | -9.1420| -1.0| -41.1| -1.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher for the first time in three sessions on Wednesday as investors bid up financial issues, even as U.S. President’s capricious tariff policies are raising concerns for that country’s growth and its outlook for inflation.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 68.75 points to 26,972.32.
Base Metal led the big decliners, down 2.5%, while Industrials and Financial topped the list, rising 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively.
Derek Holt, head of capital market economics at Scotiabank said U.S. President Trump is ramping up pressure on the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates now and is applying pressure on trading partners because he appears to be panicking.
Earlier in the day, Trump sent letters to at least seven countries, including Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines, assigning new US tariffs.
This follows his Monday letters to countries like Japan, South Korea, South Africa, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
Holt said Trump is worried that upcoming data will show his new tariffs pushing prices higher, which would justify the Fed’s caution and make future rate cuts harder to defend.
“Trump is also panicking because major trading partners are hardly beating a path to the US administration’s door in a quest to sign trade deals; they understand the US political cycle better than the US administration that overplayed its protectionist hand,” he added.
A worst-case scenario for Trump could include issues like tariffs fueling inflation in the coming months, the Fed holding rates steady for longer, and lifting the debt ceiling leading to a surge in government bond issuance, pushing yields higher, similar to what happened in 2023, Holt said.
On top of that, stricter immigration rules could slow economic growth while adding modest inflation pressure.
Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ may not deliver long-term economic gains either, Holt said, adding that “America’s trading partners probably know all of this.
Trump’s willingness to de-escalate trade tensions could improve as the costs of his policies become more evident and the midterms approach.”
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil closed with a small gain on Wednesday after Houthi militants attacked and sunk a cargo ship in the Red Sea, though an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories last week offered a counter to the safe-haven demand.
WTI oil for August delivery closed up US$0.05 to settle at US$68.38 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen up US$0.06 to US$70.21.
Gold edged higher midafternoon on Wednesday even as the dollar rose with the metal remaining rangebound after falling off a record high set in June.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$3.50 to US$3,320.40 per ounce, nearly 7% below the June 13 record high of US$3,452.80.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in several big techs spurred a rebound in stocks, with Nvidia Corp. briefly hitting $4 trillion.
Treasuries climbed after a solid $39 billion sale.
Brazil’s real tumbled as President Donald Trump said the US will impose a 50% tariff on imports from the South American giant.
Equity traders brushed off trade angst to send the S&P 500 just a few points away from its record high.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index is now signaling “extreme greed,” an indication of the market’s bullish momentum.
A gauge of mega caps added 1.1%, with Nvidia extending this year’s surge to more than 20%.
In another sign of risk appetite, Bitcoin topped $112,000 for the first time.
Trump unveiled a new round of tariff demand letters on Wednesday, with Brazil’s rate being one of the highest so far announced for the levies which are set to hit in August.
The US president cited the treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro in his letter to Brazil, calling on authorities to drop charges against him over an alleged coup attempt.
“We believe the setup for equity markets looks bullish, even in light of renewed trade-war jitters,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“While equities may come under some near-term pressure, investors are increasingly becoming numb to the tariff headlines and instead focusing on the trendlines.”
The Treasury market snapped a five-day selloff, with 10- year yields down six basis points to 4.34%.
A sale of the bonds drew a yield of 4.362%, slightly lower than indicated by pre- auction trading just before the bidding deadline, indicating demand exceeded expectations.
A $22 billion offering of 30-year debt is set for Thursday.
The emerging divide among Federal Reserve officials over the outlook for interest rates is being driven largely by differing expectations for how tariffs might affect inflation, a record of policymakers’ most recent meeting showed.
“While a few participants noted that tariffs would lead to a one-time increase in prices and would not affect longer-term inflation expectations, most participants noted the risk that tariffs could have more persistent effects on inflation,” the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 17-18 meeting said.
To Jeff Roach at LPL Financial, the FOMC is comfortable remaining in wait-and-see mode.
Despite headwinds, the economy continues to trudge along, giving policymakers time to assess the projected impact from tariffs, he said.
While concern about the inflationary impacts of tariffs is one reason why the Fed has continued to postpone lowering rates, Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management doesn’t believe this changes the dynamics in the bull market .
“Most investors believe that the economy is strong, corporate profits will be resilient and are eager to buy stocks, however, we believe more caution is warranted because we haven’t yet seen the impact of tariffs on corporate profits and consumer spending, because there have been so many delays in implementing them,” he said.
With the S&P 500 back at cycle-high valuations, the market seems to be signaling a robust appetite for risk, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
This heightened sentiment likely reflects positive interpretation of recent data as supportive, he said.
The S&P 500 has repaired some of its technical damage, bolstered by impressive market leadership from industrials, financials, and the technology sectors, Hackett noted.
“Nvidia’s march today as the first company to surpass a $4 trillion market cap is only the latest example of this,” he said.
Nvidia’s surge to the new milestone marked a stunning rebound following a rough start to the year, when spending fears sparked by China’s DeepSeek, along with Trump’s trade war, weighed on risk sentiment.
The stock is up more than 1,000% since the beginning of 2023.
Nvidia now accounts for 7.5% of the S&P 500, near its highest influence on record.
“Historically, mega caps have tended to continue their rallies after reaching various $1 trillion market cap thresholds,” according to Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
For all of these instances, the average gain in the next six months is a 9.09% rally with positive performance two-thirds of the time, they said.
Of these stocks, Amazon.com Inc. holds the title of having averaged the largest rally after reaching one of these thresholds, with Nvidia as the runner up.
Fast-money investors are edging their way back into US stocks after sitting out a furious rally, bolstering the case for equities to extend their advance further into uncharted territory.
A BNP Paribas measure of equity positioning among investors including commodity-trading advisors, volatility-target funds and hedge funds has been steadily rising and now sits at just above neutral.
That follows a monthslong rally that saw the S&P 500 Index rebound to new highs from the precipice of a bear market.
The last time institutions were this light on stocks in the midst of a sharp recovery was in 2023, according to the bank.
Just this week, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists raised their outlook for US stocks, citing among other factors the continued strength in the largest US companies as reasons why stocks are likely to keep heading higher.
“If the script goes as planned and economic activity remains firm; corporate profitability remains solid (especially across tech), and the inevitable unexpected speed bumps in the road don’t throw the market off track too much, stocks have an opportunity to grind higher through year-end,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
Yet Saglimbene remarks there’s now an elevated risk of disappointment, “especially after seeing how quickly the overall investment narrative can change based on the constant barrage of White House announcements.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. was upgraded at Oppenheimer on Wednesday, adding to a growing consensus on Wall Street that the software giant is in a strong position within artificial intelligence.
* Apple Inc. thinks it is “too big to tariff, in some sense, and it’s used that line,” White House trade counselor Peter Navarro told Fox Business.
* France’s antitrust regulator said it notified Meta Platforms Inc. of a potential violation of competition rules relating to the online advertising sector.
* CoreWeave Inc., a cloud computing provider, said it would offer Nvidia’s RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell GPUs at scale.
* Linda Yaccarino, who was hired two years ago by Elon Musk as chief executive officer of X, is stepping down less than three months after the social-media platform was absorbed by Musk’s artificial intelligence startup.
* Merck & Co. agreed to buy respiratory drugmaker Verona Pharma Plc for around $10 billion as part of its ongoing search for ways to fill the Keytruda-sized hole that will emerge over the next few years.
* Meta Platforms Inc. bought a minority stake in the world’s largest eyewear manufacturer, EssilorLuxottica SA, deepening the US tech giant’s commitment to the fast-growing smart glasses industry, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Autodesk Inc. is weighing an acquisition of rival engineering- software provider PTC Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. promoted a new leader for the company’s Medicaid insurance segment, filling a role that was vacant after recent executive changes.
* Starbucks Corp. has received proposals from prospective investors in its China business, most of whom are eyeing a controlling stake in the operation, said people familiar with the matter.
* AES Corp., which provides renewable power to tech giants such as Microsoft Corp., is exploring options including a potential sale amid takeover interest, people with knowledge of the matter said.
* Samsung Electronics Co. introduced three new foldable smartphones to cement its grip on the category and broaden mainstream appeal before Apple Inc. debuts its first version next year.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
* Nvidia rose 1.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1718
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3594
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 146.35 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.9% to $111,832.69
* Ether rose 6.2% to $2,760.5
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.67%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.61%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,315.09 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Action speaks louder than words but not nearly as often. -Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 8^th, 1497: Portuguese navigator Vasco da Gama sets sail, becoming the first European to reach India by se and opening a direct spice route that reshapes global trade.
July 8, 1889: The Wall Street Journal was first published.  Go to article.

John D. Rockefeller, financier, b. 1839
Angelica Huston, actress, b. 1951.
Anna Quindlen, writer, b. 1953.

Earth is going to spin much faster over the next few months — so fast that several days are going to get shorter
Differences in the gravitational pull between Earth and the Moon will make July 9, July 22 and Aug. 5 unusually short. Read More.

Melting glaciers could trigger volcanic eruptions around the globe, study finds
Glacial melt could increase volcanic activity in North America, New Zealand and Russia, spewing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Read More.

‘Ash-winged dawn goddess’ is oldest pterosaur ever discovered in North America — and it was small enough to sit ‘on your shoulder’
A cache of Triassic fossils in Arizona has revealed Eotephradactylus mcintireae, or “ash-winged dawn goddess,” the oldest pterosaur ever discovered in North America. Read More.

Scientists burned, poked and sliced their way through new robotic skin that can ‘feel everything’
New, gelatin-based material could let robots feel everything from a light poke to a deep cut. Read More.

Avoid the crowds
Costco’s priciest membership plan, which costs $130 per year, just launched a new perk.

Promising or pointless?
Turns out there’s a trick to bringing a full bottle of water through an airport security checkpoint — and it’s TSA-approved.

So many stars
The 2026 Hollywood Walk of Fame honorees have been revealed.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Long summer days on Hampstead Heath in London
Photograph: Sarah M Lee/The Guardian

One of the four lynx that were illegally released into the Cairngorms National Park, Scotland, in January and rescued by the Royal Zoological Society of Scotland. The three lynx that survived the ordeal have settled in to their new homes at the nearby Highland Wildlife Park, where this picture was taken. They have been named Caledonia, Cardrona and Bluebell, following a competition involving school children and charity donors
Photograph: RZSS/PA

A gannet carrying nesting material takes flight at Bempton Cliffs in Bridlington, East Yorkshire, UK
Photograph: Adam Vaughan/EPA
Market Closes for July 8^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44240.76	-165.60
		-0.37%
S&P 500	6225.52	-4.46
		-0.07%
NASDAQ	20418.46	+5.94
		+0.03%
TSX	26903.57	-116.72
		-0.43%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39688.81	+101.13
		+0.26%
HANG SENG	24148.07	+260.24
		+1.09%
SENSEX	83712.51	+270.01
		+0.32%
FTSE 100*	8854.18	+47.65
		+0.54%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.430	3.401
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.728	3.697
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3992	4.3794
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9244	4.9152

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7318	0.7314
US $	1.3664	1.3672

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6041	0.6234
US $	1.1726	0.8528

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3315.35	3331.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.33	67.93

Market Commentary:
Inflation is the modern way hat governments default on their debt. –Mike Epstein, 1947-2009.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.4%, or 116.71 to 26,903.57 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on June 25.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 106 of 213 shares fell, while 103 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.4%.
SSR Mining Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.7%.

Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on July 7, 2025, and 24.2% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 1.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.36t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.79% compared with 5.89% in the previous session and the average of 6.38% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -129.8302| -3.5| 10/37
Information Technology| -47.7740| -1.8| 4/6
Financials | -7.1591| -0.1| 7/17
Utilities | -1.9782| -0.2| 6/8
Real Estate | -0.6520| -0.1| 5/14
Health Care | -0.3847| -0.6| 2/1
Consumer Staples | 2.6138| 0.3| 7/2
Consumer Discretionary| 4.5371| 0.5| 6/3
Communication Services| 10.3438| 1.7| 4/1
Industrials | 20.1901| 0.6| 17/12
Energy | 33.3906| 0.8| 35/5
Shopify | -45.4600| -3.4| 14.5| 0.7
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -27.7900| -4.7| 15.0| 41.4
Wheaton Precious Metals | -24.9600| -6.2| 48.3| 46.6
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 11.1200| 1.6| -33.3| 6.2
Canadian National | 11.4400| 2.1| -16.0| -1.6
Suncor | 12.3500| 2.8| -31.7| 3.5
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower for a second day on Tuesday, falling back below the 27,000 mark as investors take profits following Friday’s record close.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 116.71 points to 26,903.57, again dropping off Friday’s record close of 27,036.16.
Energy and Industrials were the biggest gainers, rising 5.3% and 2.8%, respectively.
Decliners were led by Information Technology, which dropped 3.3%.
Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a podcast the investment bank agrees with President Trump that the United States may need lower interest rates to sustain full employment, especially as tailwinds like strong consumer spending and immigration fade.
He added that while cuts may be needed later, the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode due to low unemployment and lingering inflation risks, including the unknown impact of new tariffs.
Shenfeld also said that unlike the United States, Canada is not at full employment “and there’s a greater urgency then that if the economy needs interest rate relief, we should be providing it somewhat sooner”.
He added that labor market softness in Canada appears to be spreading beyond trade-sensitive sectors, according to more detailed payroll data, raising concerns about underlying weakness.
Taylor Schleich, Director, Economics and Strategy at National Bank Financial, and analyst Noah Black said in a Tuesday note the Bank of Canada has cut interest rates by 2.25 percentage points since starting its easing cycle in June 2024.
But despite this, longer-term borrowing costs, like 10-year bond yields, have barely moved.
This “paltry” pass-through means the impact of rate cuts on the broader economy has been limited.
They added that muted pass-through of rate cuts is not just a Canadian issue, bond yields have been rising globally, partly due to concerns over growing fiscal pressures and anxieties.
Canada has fared better than some countries, like the U.K.
“However, relative fiscal strength should not distract from the fact that deficits and debt loads are rising in Canada too.
That isn’t conducive to absolute yield relief, leaving governments, businesses and consumers facing higher borrowing costs than they otherwise might,” the note said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher for a third-straight session on Tuesday as the market weighs the impact of higher supply after OPEC+ over the weekend decided to boost production more than expected next month.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up US$0.40 to settle at US$68.33 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen up US$0.77 to US$70.35.
Gold traded lower late afternoon on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump renewed tariff threats against the country’s trading partners while again delaying imposing the levies, while the dollar and yields rose.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$30.10 to US$3.312.70 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks failed to gain traction near all-time highs, with Donald Trump saying the August deadline for the start of reciprocal tariffs won’t be extended, despite hopes he’s open to trade talks.
Copper surged as the US president called for a 50% tariff.
Treasuries fell.
Following a torrid run from April lows, the S&P 500 barely budged as traders remained on guard for headline risk.
Copper producer Freeport-McMoRan Inc. rallied.
A gauge of drugmakers whipsawed as Trump indicated he could offer pharmaceutical manufacturers at least a year before applying a 200% tariff on foreign-made products.
In mega caps, Tesla Inc. climbed while Amazon.com Inc. fell at the start of its Prime Day sales event.
As Treasuries slipped, 30-year yields approached 5%, following a rout in longer-dated Japanese bonds and German bunds.
A $58 billion US sale of three-year notes drew soft demand.
That was the first in a trio of auctions this week.
The dollar wavered.
Trump signaled a renewed determination to push ahead with his plans to heavily tax foreign imports.
He also told reporters that despite progress with the European Union on a trade deal, frustration over the bloc’s taxes and fines targeting US technology firms could result in him unilaterally declaring a new tariff rate within the next two days.
“Trade-war headlines are regaining momentum, but that doesn’t mean we’re in for a repeat of late March and early April,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“If there is confidence that negotiations will continue or deadlines will be extended, markets may continue to shake off the headlines.”
However, Kenwell noted that if investors feel the trade situation could become “more bite than bark,” we could very well see another pullback in stocks.
“Unless the situation really unravels, a 5% to 10% pullback will likely be viewed as a buying opportunity by retail investors,” he noted.
“While tariffs will likely remain high — compared with levels at the start of the year — as will the headline risk, we think the US effective tariff rate should end the year at around 15%,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“This would be a headwind to growth but not enough to trigger a recession.”
She continues to recommend phasing into global equities or diversified portfolios to navigate volatility ahead.
Investors should look to reload on hedges ahead of the Aug. 1 tariff deadline as US equity indexes are near record highs with geopolitical risk premium largely dissipated, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Bram Kaplan wrote.
While top-down drivers such as macro growth forecasts being slightly up point to solid S&P 500 earnings growth for the second quarter, Deutsche Bank AG strategists led by Binky Chadha expect the idiosyncratic effects of tariffs to reduce profits.
Meantime, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists raised their outlook for US stocks for the second time in two months, saying they expect the Federal Reserve to act sooner to cut rates.
The team led by David Kostin lifted their 12-month forecast for the S&P 500 to 6,900 from 6,500 and increased the year-end target to 6,600 from 6,100.
They also cited lower Treasury yields and strength in the largest US companies as reasons to power stocks.
Bank of America Corp. strategists also boosted their outlook for US equities, citing Corporate America’s ability to maintain earnings guidance.
Strategists including Savita Subramanian and Jill Carey Hall raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,300 from 5,600 and established a 12-month target of 6,600.
“We believe the setup for equity markets looks bullish, even in light of renewed trade-war jitters,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“While equities may come under some near-term pressure, investors are increasingly becoming numb to the tariff headlines and instead focusing on the trendlines.”
Johnson says technically, measures of market breadth and trends remain constructive, and the weight of the technical evidence supports his bullish outlook as earnings season approaches.

Corporate Highlights:
* Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime Day sales fell almost 14% in the first four hours of the event compared with the start of last year’s sale, according to Momentum Commerce, which manages 50 brands in a variety of product categories.
* Boeing Co. said it delivered 60 aircraft in June, its best showing in 18 months that reflects improvements in its factories and the resumption of US jet exports to China.
* HSBC is turning cautious on three of the biggest US bank stocks following a record rally that’s brought the group within shouting distance of an all-time high.
* President Donald Trump called for new rules that would restrict access to tax incentives for solar and wind projects that already had been pared back by his $3.4 trillion budget bill designed to end green energy incentives.
* SpaceX is discussing plans to raise money and sell insider shares in a deal that would value Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker around $400 billion, people familiar with the matter said.
* Ciena Corp. was cut to underweight from equal weight citing at Morgan Stanley, which cited a lack of margin upside in the near term.
* Hershey Co. appointed Kirk Tanner to be the chocolate maker’s next president and chief executive officer.
* Walt Disney Co. and Hearst Corp. are considering a sale of their A+E Global Media joint venture, which includes cable-TV channels such as History and Lifetime, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vlad Tenev said the firm is in talks with regulators over its offering of tokenized equities in Europe, after the launch drew rebuke from companies including OpenAI.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1723
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3588
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 146.64 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $108,786.78
* Ether rose 3% to $2,611.36
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.63%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.90%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.93%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $68.33 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1% to $3,302.59 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Everything requires discipline, hard work and dedication, and most importantly, self-belief. –Serena Williams, b. 1981.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  Fiesta de San Fermin, Running of the Bulls, Pamplona, Spain.

July 7, 1936: American businessman Henry F. Phillips receives patents for a new “cross-recessed” screw.  Now known as the Phillips head, it revolutionizes manufacturing with  its matching screwdriver.
July 7, 1987: Lt. Col. Oliver North began his public testimony at the Iran-Contra hearing, telling Congress that he had “never carried out a single act, not one” without authorization. Go to article.

Gustav Mahler, composer, b. 1860.
Marc Chagall, artist, b.1887.
Robet A. Heinlein, writer, b. 1907.
Ringo Starr, musician, b. 1940.

Astronaut snaps giant red ‘jellyfish’ sprite over North America during upward-shooting lightning event
NASA astronaut Nichole Ayers captured an electrifying image of a giant lightning “sprite” shooting up over Mexico and southern U.S. states. The red “jellyfish” could help researchers learn more about this rare phenomenon. Read More.

Oldest wooden tools unearthed in East Asia show that ancient humans made planned trips to dig up edible plants
The 300,000 year-old tools show that hominins in East Asia made planned foraging trips to lakeshores and designed instruments for specific purposes. Read More.

Giant radio telescope in the Utah desert could reveal hidden corners of the cosmos — and brand-new physics
Scientists say that the construction of a vast new radio telescope array in the Utah desert — known as the Deep Synoptic Array 2000 — could uncover some of the biggest
outstanding mysteries in astronomy. Read More.

AI chatbots oversimplify scientific studies and gloss over critical details — the newest models are especially guilty
More advanced AI chatbots are more likely to oversimplify complex scientific findings based on the way they interpret the data they are trained on, a new study suggests. Read More.

Taking the plunge
Swimming in the Seine has been illegal since 1923 due to pollution and risks posed by river navigation. But following a $1.5 billion cleanup project, Parisians and tourists are finally able to cool off by taking a refreshing dip.

Dino-Might!
“Jurassic World Rebirth” trampled its competition at the box office, grossing $147 million domestically over the five days of the Fourth of July weekend.

‘The great wait is over’
Oasis launched its reunion tour with a concert in Cardiff, Wales, on Friday. The famously feuding Gallagher siblings have not performed together since the band’s acrimonious split in 2009.

Even pontiffs need a break 
See where Pope Leo XIV is going to spend his summer vacation.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Birds perch on the antlers of a deer in Bushy Park, London, UK
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Sambar deer in an enclosure before being released in Khlong Lan national park, Thailand. The species is classed as vulnerable, but, in an unfortunate turn of events, these particular deer are being used to support Thailand’s wild tiger population, which needs prey: there are only about 200 endangered tigers left in the area
Photograph: Lillian Suwanrumpha/AFP/Getty Images

Wild yılkı horses graze around the grass-covered crater of Mount Karadağ, southern Turkey
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 7^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44406.36	-422.17
		-0.94%
S&P 500	6229.98	-49.37
		-0.79%
NASDAQ	20412.52	-188.58
		-0.92%
TSX	27020.29	-15.87
		-0.06%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39587.68	-223.20
		-0.56%
HANG SENG	23887.83	-28.23
		-0.12%
SENSEX	83442.50	+9.61
		+0.01%
FTSE 100*	8806.53	-16.38
		-0.19%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.401	3.354
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.697	3.647
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3794	N.A
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9152	N.A

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7314	0.7351
US $	1.3672	1.3603

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6041	0.6234
US $	1.1731	0.8524

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3331.90	3332.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.93	N.A

Market Commentary:
Traders come and go.  Risk managers are here to stay. -Nassim Taleb, b. 1960.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 27,020.28 in Toronto, ending a 4-day gain.
The loss follows the previous session’s little change.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.6%.
ATS Corp. had the largest drop, falling 8.1%.
Today, 114 of 213 shares fell, while 97 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24.8% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.2% in the past 5 days and rose 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalizationof C$4.37t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.89% compared with 6.15% in the previous session and the average of 6.40% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -28.4673| -0.3| 14/11
Energy | -23.1853| -0.5| 9/31
Industrials | -6.8263| -0.2| 16/13
Real Estate | -5.8351| -1.2| 0/19
Consumer Discretionary | -2.6926| -0.3| 4/5
Utilities | -1.0991| -0.1| 6/8
Consumer Staples | -0.1994| 0.0| 6/4
Health Care | -0.1221| -0.2| 0/2
Information Technology | 1.0279| 0.0| 4/6
Communication Services | 8.3725| 1.4| 2/3
Materials | 43.1351| 1.2| 36/12
Brookfield Corp | -14.1300| -1.6| 52.1| 4.1
Canadian National | -13.2200| -2.4| -8.2| -3.6
Manulife Financial | -11.2500| -2.2| -0.8| -5.2
Shopify | 9.1100| 0.7| -20.4| 4.1
Cameco | 9.4920| 3.1| -20.7| 38.9
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 12.3500| 2.2| -12.8| 48.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell again on Monday, edging down again from Friday’s record high, as confusion over U.S. tariff policies continues.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 15.88 points at 27,020.28, compared with Friday’s record close of 27,036.16.
Most sectors were in the red, except Telecoms, which was up 0.7%.
Decliners were led by Base Metals and Energy, which dropped 2.7% and 1.8%, respectively.
Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank Economics, said the United States is once again delaying its tariff threats.
Treasury official Bessent said yesterday that if no trade deals are made by Aug. 1, tariffs will return to the high levels seen on April 2, extending the original deadline set for this Wednesday.
Trump plans to speak more about tariffs today.
However, the new deadline likely isn’t a serious threat, given the administration’s history of similar delays and the major economic damage those high tariffs would cause, Holt added.
“The rest of the world understands the US political cycle better than the US administration and it’s Trump that is under pressure into midterms more than the other countries.
Any ‘deals’ with the US administration are likely to be token ones as major trading partners resist longer-term damage emanating from deeply misguided US economic policies,” he said in the note.
Holt said the US dollar is trading stronger against most major currencies.
Government bond yields are mostly unchanged, with European bonds underperforming slightly compared to U.S.
Treasuries. In the United States, long-term bonds are lagging after the administration passed its “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which analysts estimate will increase the primary deficit by $3.2 trillion over the next decade “in highly regressive fashion that will negatively impact much of Trump’s base”.
BofA Securities analysts said there is growing optimism that Prime Minister Mark Carney could help revitalize Canada’s flagging economy and secure a trade deal with the United States by the July 21 deadline, a move that could boost Canadian bank stocks.
Recent steps like fast-tracking infrastructure projects and removing some interprovincial trade barriers also support that outlook.
After cuts to GDP forecasts due to tariff concerns earlier this year, BofA is now raising its 2025 growth forecast from 1% to 1.4%, citing a more resilient Canadian economy than previously expected.
Risks are seen as balanced, though a prolonged trade war with the U.S. remains the biggest downside, while further Bank of Canada rate cuts or more government spending could boost growth beyond expectations.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on closed with a gain on Monday even after OPEC+ over the weekend surprised the market by deciding to further speed the return of voluntary production cuts with an even-larger tranche of supply additions in August as the group looks to regain market share from producers outside of the cartel.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed US$0.93 to settle at US$67.93 per barrel, rising off an overnight low US$65.40.
September Brent oil was last seen up US$1.32 to US$69.62.
Gold was steady mid-afternoon on Monday as the dollar rose despite confusion over the timing of threatened U.S. tariffs.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$3.50 to US$3.346.40 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell from all-time highs and the dollar climbed after President Donald Trump began unveiling his tariff plans, with the US setting levies for nations such as Japan, South Korea and South Africa starting in August — triggering a selloff in their currencies.
The S&P 500 slid about 1%, with megacaps leading losses as Tesla Inc. tumbled nearly 7% after Elon Musk announced he’s formed a political party, raising concern about his company’s outlook.
Treasuries dropped, with longer-dated bonds underperforming.
Emerging markets got hit as Trump warned he’d add extra tariffs on countries aligning with “the Anti-American policies of BRICS.”
Trump unveiled the first in a wave of promised letters that threaten to impose higher tariff rates on key trading partners, including levies of 25% on goods from Japan and South Korea.
He also announced 25% rates on Malaysia and Kazakhstan, while South Africa would see a 30% tariff.
Laos and Myanmar would face a 40% levy.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said there would be around a dozen countries that receive notifications about their tariffs Monday directly from the president.
Additional letters will be sent in the coming days, she said. “Investors should be alert to headline risk,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“The scope for last- minute deals are high, but so too is the possibility of renewed trade tensions.”
“With the trade war returning to the limelight, Treasuries bear-steepened on Monday – a move that was consistent with the forward reflationary implications associated with higher tariffs,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
The strategists said that one positive to be taken away from the latest trade developments was that the higher tariffs won’t be in place during July.
That means “an indirect extension” of the original 90-day pause that would expire on Wednesday.
“The outcome could certainly have been more dire for the economic outlook had the additional window of relief not been included in the latest trade-war salvo,” they noted.
The European Union is not expecting to receive a letter setting tariff rates today, according to a person familiar with those discussions. The EU is seeking to conclude a preliminary deal this week that would allow it to lock in a 10% tariff rate beyond an Aug. 1 deadline as they negotiate a permanent agreement.
Meantime, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC said he expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart in the coming weeks.
So far, the US economy is holding up, hiring is healthy, and inflation has remained tame.
But the Federal Reserve is wary about tariffs despite pressure from Trump to lower rates and wants to see how they feed through to output in the next few months.
Investors on Wednesday will parse minutes of the Fed’s June policy meeting.
The US central bank can’t assume its benchmark lending rate won’t return to zero at some point in the future, according to researchers from the Fed Banks of New York and San Francisco, who included New York Fed President John Williams.
The authors, in a blog post published Monday, found a 9% probability the federal funds rate would hit the so-called zero lower bound, or ZLB, over a seven-year horizon, with the current high level of interest-rate uncertainty contributing to that risk.
Elsewhere, oil rose as Saudi Arabia surprised customers in Asia by hiking prices for its main crude grade, a vote of confidence that the market can absorb extra OPEC barrels.

Corporate Highlights:
* CoreWeave Inc. is dropping $9 billion on the data-center operator Core Scientific Inc. in an effort to gain more direct control over the physical assets powering the artificial- intelligence boom.
* Apple Inc. appealed a €500 million ($580 million) fine from the European Union, calling the penalty “unprecedented” and the regulator’s required changes to its App Store as “unlawful.”
* Netflix Inc. was downgraded to neutral from buy at Seaport Global Securities, which cites valuation in the wake of strong gains at the streaming-video company.
* Applied Materials Inc. was downgraded at Rothschild & Co Redburn to neutral from buy on gowth risks.
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc. initiated coverage of MGM Resorts International with a sell recommendation due to the volatile Las Vegas market.
* Wells Fargo & Co. was downgraded to market perform from strong buy at Raymond James which says the stock’s “favorable fundamentals” are already reflected in its valuation.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1719
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3609
* The Japanese yen fell 1.1% to 146.06 per dollar
* The South African rand fell 1.5% to 17.8357
* The Korean won fell 1.1% to 1,377.90
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $108,045
* Ether fell 0.1% to $2,543.27
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.64%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.59%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $67.99 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Practice is more important than theory, for what we must learn to do, we learn by doing. –Gaius Musonius Rufus, c.20-30 AD- c.100 AD.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com