Category: Uncategorized

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
July 31^st, 1914: The New York Stock Exchange closed due to the outbreak of World War I. (Trading didn’t resume until December.) Go to article.
July 31,1991: The US and USSR sign the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty 9STARTI), capping deployed nuclear weapons and easing Cold War tensions.

Milton Friedman, economist, b.1912.
J.K Rowling, writer, b. 1965.
1790: US Patent office opens.

Russian volcano explodes in ‘powerful’ eruption, likely intensified by 8.8 magnitude earthquake
Klyuchevskoy volcano in Russia erupted shortly after a powerful 8.8 magnitude earthquake in the same region. Read More.

Sticky goo in 2,500-year-old bronze jars finally identified, settling 70-year debate
A cutting-edge chemical analysis of a mystery substance that had stymied experts for 70 years finally revealed its identity. Read More.

‘It was so unexpected’: 90 billion liters of meltwater punched its way through Greenland ice sheet in never-before-seen melting event
A previously-undetected flood over Greenland’s ice sheet has confounded model predictions about how the region’s meltwater should leak. Read More.

‘Universal’ cancer vaccine heading to human trials could be useful for ‘all forms of cancer’
A new mRNA-based vaccine triggers a response from the innate immune system to help arm the body against cancer, a mouse study finds. It’s now in early human trials. Read More.

Google has turned 2 billion smartphones into a global earthquake warning system — it’s as effective as seismometers, tests show
Google’s earthquake early-warning system has used phone accelerometers on Android devices to increase quake alerts by tenfold across 98 countries. Read More.

‘South Park’ breaks record dating back to 1999
Nearly 6 million people watched the cartoon’s season premiere last week, which featured ruthless and profane commentary about President Trump.

Peanut butter and chocolate? Yes, please.
Oreo and Reese’s are collaborating on a new candy and what might be the perfect cookie.

Think round, not rectangular 
As hurricanes become more frequent and destructive, one company is building round, aerodynamic houses that are more storm-resistant.

Radioactive wasp nest discovered in South Carolina
The nest was found on a post near tanks where liquid nuclear waste is stored.

Starbucks shuts down entire line of cafes
The pick-up only stores encouraged customers to order via their mobile app and not linger.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Yogyakarta, Indonesia
A local artist, Hangno Hartono, sits near an alien figure during the Indonesia UFO festival
Photograph: Dita Alangkara/AP

Whiterocks beach, County Antrim, UK
‘A touring cyclist on the beach, with Dunluce Castle in the background.’
Photograph: James Hamill

Worcestershire, UK
‘As our third heatwave came to an end, I stopped a while to watch the soft refreshing rain through the kitchen window.’
Photograph: Lynne Falconer
Market Closes for July 31^st, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44130.98	-330.30
		-0.74%
S&P 500	6339.39	-23.51
		-0.37%
NASDAQ	21122.45	-7.22
		-0.03%
TSX	27259.78	-110.18
		-0.40%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41069.82	+415.12
		+1.02%
HANG SENG	24773.33	-403.60
		-1.60%
SENSEX	81185.58	-296.28
		-0.36%
FTSE 100*	9132.81	-4.13
		-0.05%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.458	3.481
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.759	3.791
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3740	4.3700
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9000	4.8989

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7217	0.7231
US $	1.3856	1.3827

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5830	0.6317
US $	1.1423	0.8754

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3304.30	3316.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	69.26	70.00

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1914, with war raging in Europe, the New York Stock Exchange closed and stayed shut for another four and a half months to allow the chaotic market to settle.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.4%, or 110.18 to 27,259.78 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since July 16.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 141 of 212 shares fell, while 69 rose.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.8%.
Bausch Health Cos. had the largest drop, falling 7.7%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.5%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.9%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended April 4
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.2% below its 52-week high on July 30, 2025 and 25.9% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 1.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.80% compared with 6.69% in the previous session and the average of 6.14% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -38.6147| -0.4| 8/17
Industrials | -26.0700| -0.8| 6/23
Information Technology | -25.4334| -0.9| 1/9
Energy | -20.3804| -0.5| 8/32
Consumer Staples | -6.8547| -0.7| 3/7
Real Estate | -4.0082| -0.8| 4/15
Communication Services | -3.0190| -0.5| 1/4
Utilities | -2.3609| -0.2| 5/8
Health Care | -1.6055| -2.5| 1/2
Consumer Discretionary | 0.4744| 0.1| 4/5
Materials | 17.6962| 0.5| 28/19
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -19.0600| -2.8| 125.1| -2.1
RBC | -12.6600| -0.7| -16.8| 2.6
Constellation Software | -11.2800| -1.7| 78.5| 7.5
Kinross Gold | 6.9690| 3.8| 70.9| 66.1
Enbridge | 7.6220| 0.8| -15.4| 2.9
TC Energy | 8.2870| 1.8| -44.4| -1.2
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for a second day on Thursday, bringing losses since Tuesday’s record high to near 270 points amid uncertainty that Canada and the United States will achieve an agreement on trade tomorrow’s deadline.
Not helped today by lower commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 110.18 points to 27,259.78, adding to the near 160 points lost Wednesday, when it dropped from Tuesday’s record close.
Among sectors, most were lower with the Battery Metals Index down 4%, Health Care down 2.7% and Energy down 1.2%.
Base Metals was up near 1.2%.
Just hours away from an Aug. 1 deadline, the United States and Canada remain locked in talks to resolve a brewing trade dispute.
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Wednesday it is “possible” the two nations won’t reach an agreement before Friday, while U.S. President Donald Trump earlier Thursday agreed to extend talks with Mexico by 90 days, raising the prospect of a similar outcome for the Canadians.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, has said U.S. trade talks with Canada have involved the level of aluminum tariffs as some U.S. manufacturers, most notably Ford Motor, are dealing with a financial hit.
According to The WSJ, the Treasury secretary’s remarks Thursday signal possible relief for Canada’s aluminum sector, which, along with steel makers, faces a 50% tariff on their U.S. exports.
It noted Canada is the U.S.’s biggest foreign supplier of both metals, and the deals President Trump has made to date have maintained the 50% duty of steel and aluminum.
Of commodities today, gold edged lower midafternoon even as the dollar rose after a key U.S. inflation measure climbed in June and a day after the Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank will hold off on interest-rate cuts as it assesses the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $5.30 to US$3,347.50 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower, falling off a five-week high after an unexpected rise in U.S oil inventories and despite fresh sanction threats on Russian supply from the Trump Administration.
WTI crude for September delivery closed down $0.74 to settle at US$69.26 per barrel, falling off the highest since June 20, while September Brent oil was last seen down $0.73 to US$72.51.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in stocks sputtered ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline, with the White House demanding drugmakers to slash US prices.
Treasuries and the dollar barely budged in the run-up to the jobs report.
The S&P 500 erased a 1% advance for the first time since April.
Trump sent letters to 17 of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” hit all-time highs as Microsoft Corp.
briefly topped $4 trillion while Meta Platforms Inc. jumped 11% on solid results.
In late hours, Amazon.com Inc.’s profit forecast underwhelmed investors.
“While we expect equities to advance over the next 12 months, investors should be mindful of potential market swings in the coming weeks,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We think capital preservation or phasing-in strategies can be effective in navigating near-term volatility.”
Trump will sign an executive order imposing new tariff rates on trading partners that take effect Friday.
He has struck deals with the European Union, the UK, Japan and South Korea, and unilaterally set rates on other nations, including India and Brazil.
In addition, Trump is bringing in bank leaders to meet with him one by one at the White House.
He’s asking chief executive officers for their pitches on monetizing mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, including a major public offering of stock, according to people familiar with the matter.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.36%.
The dollar rose at the end of its best month in 2025.
The yen slid as comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda were seen as less hawkish than expected.
In the run-up to jobs data, the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation accelerated in June to one of the fastest paces this year while consumer spending barely rose, underscoring the dueling forces dividing policymakers over the path of rates.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% from May.
It advanced 2.8% on an annual basis, a pickup from June 2024 that underscores limited progress on taming inflation in the past year.
The data also showed inflation-adjusted consumer spending edged up last month.
“Inflation remains sticky and justifies the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.
“The stock market doesn’t need rate cuts in order to move higher and has already posted strong gains so far this year without any rate cuts.”
As with so many things in the economy, the situation is very fluid and we have yet to see the full impact of tariffs flowing through to inflation, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“We are priced for perfection as they say, and that is a risk, but one that will likely be ignored by the market as long as corporate profits are still growing,” he said.
Separate data Thursday showed initial applications for unemployment insurance were little changed last week.
Another report showed labor cost growth rose 3.6% from a year ago, matching the lowest since 2021, reassuring Fed officials that the job market isn’t a source of inflationary pressure.
The market’s attention will soon turn to Friday’s jobs report for July, which is forecast to show companies are becoming more deliberate in their hiring.
Employment likely moderated after a June increase, while the unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 4.2%.
President Trump resumed his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the central bank declined to cut interest rates, ending a short-lived détente.
Trump’s comments come after Fed officials left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but downgraded their view of the US economy, signaling that policymakers could be edging closer to lowering borrowing costs.

Corporate Highlights:
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google lost its appeal of a judge’s order requiring an overhaul of the technology giant’s app store policies in an antitrust case filed by Fortnite-maker Epic Games Inc.
* Figma Inc. shares jumped 250% in their public debut after the design software maker and some of its shareholders raised $1.2 billion in an IPO, with the trading valuing the company far above the $20 billion mark it would have reached in a now-scrapped merger with Adobe Inc.
* Boeing Co. has resumed contract talks with leaders of the union representing some 3,200 factory workers in the St. Louis area, after members resoundingly rejected its initial offer and voted to strike.
* A judge in California ordered Phillips 66 to pay an additional $195 million in punitive damages on top of an earlier $604.9 million trade secret theft verdict for what he called “reprehensible” conduct that nearly destroyed a much smaller fuel company.
* Mastercard Inc. reported earnings that topped analysts’ estimates and gave a more optimistic forecast for this year’s revenue on continued momentum in consumer spending.
* Moderna Inc. is cutting about 10% of its workforce, part of an effort by the struggling biotech company to reduce spending as sales of its Covid vaccine decline.
* Bristol Myers Squibb Co. slid as investors questioned whether the drugmaker has done enough to spur future sales growth in the face of an aging drug portfolio, even after lifting its full-year guidance and beating Wall Street’s quarterly sales and profit estimates.
* A trial of Eli Lilly & Co.’s blockbuster diabetes drug Mounjaro fell short of expectations that it would do a better job of preventing heart attacks and strokes than its older medicine Trulicity.
* Biogen Inc. raised its full-year financial guidance as growing sales of its Alzheimer’s drug helped the biotech company beat Wall Street’s expectations.
* CVS Health Corp. raised its 2025 profit guidance on strong results in its health insurance and pharmacy businesses, an encouraging sign after a spate of missteps by rival insurers.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1413
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3206
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 150.80 per dollar
* The Mexican peso was little changed at 18.8631
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $116,780
* Ether fell 0.9% to $3,737.04
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.36%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.57%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.94%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.89%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $69.18 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,291.21 an ounce

–With assistance from Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
The wise does at once what the fool does at last. –Baltasar Gracián, 1601-1658.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 30, 1930: Uruguay defeats Argentina to win the first FIFA World Cup, hosted in Montevideo and watched by over 90,000 spectators.
July 30, 1975: Former Teamsters union president Jimmy Hoffa disappeared in suburban Detroit. (His remains have never been found.) Go to article.
1935: Paperback books introduced for the first time.

Emily Bronte, writer, b. 1818.
Henry Moore, sculptor, b.1848.
Henry Ford, industrialist, b. 1863.
Arnold Swarzenegger, actor, b.1947.

Russia earthquake: Magnitude 8.8 megaquake hits Kamchatka, generating tsunamis across the Pacific
The 8.8 magnitude megaquake is the joint-sixth largest earthquake ever recorded and the first tsunami waves have already hit Oahu, Hawaii. Read More.

4,000-year-old handprint discovered on ancient Egyptian tomb offering
Researchers have unveiled an ancient Egyptian handprint that was left on a soul house tomb offering 4,000 years ago. Read More.

400-mile-long chain of fossilized volcanoes discovered beneath China
Researchers recently discovered a huge chain of extinct volcanoes buried deep below South China that formed when two tectonic plates collided during the breakup of Rodinia,
around 800 million years ago. Read More.

Scientists use quantum machine learning to create semiconductors for the first time – and it could transform how chips are made
Researchers have found a way to make the chip design and manufacturing process much easier — by tapping into a hybrid blend of artificial intelligence and quantum computing.

Australia reverses course on YouTube
The country’s government has decided to include the world’s largest video platform in its ban on social media for children under 16.
Ozzy Osbourne’s last ride
The “Crazy Train” singer’s funeral procession will travel through Birmingham — his hometown in England — today.

Billy Joel sets the record straight
The 76-year-old singer has been in a few car accidents, but not for the reason many people believe.

A cabal of furry thieves snatch iPhones and other valuables from visitors to a temple in Bali—and trade them for mangos.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Cabarete, Dominican Republic
‘Tropic thunder (and lightning).’
Photograph: Jon Nakkerud

Faaborg, Denmark
‘A mural depicting the importance of water in this beautiful port town.’
Photograph: Robert Boon

Guanajuato, Mexico
‘A beautifully colourful hillside.’
Photograph: Alan Wright
Market Closes for July 30^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44461.28	-171.71
		-0.38%
S&P 500	6362.90	-7.96
		-0.12%
NASDAQ	21129.67	+31.38
		+0.15%
TSX	27369.96	-169.92
		-0.62%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40654.70	-19.85
		-0.05%
HANG SENG	25176.93	-347.52
		-1.36%
SENSEX	81481.86	+143.91
		+0.18%
FTSE 100*	9136.94	+0.62
		+0.01%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.481	3.473
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.791	3.791
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3700	4.3204
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8989	4.8563

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7231	0.7260
US $	1.3827	1.3774

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5792	0.6332
US $	1.1421	0.8755

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3316.50	3305.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.00	69.21

Market Commentary:
If you would know the value of money, go and try to borrow some. –Benjamin Franklin, 1706-1790.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.6% at 27,369.96 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.8% on May 21 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 154 of 212 shares fell, while 57 rose.
Intact Financial Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.5%.
Capital Power Corp. had the largest drop, falling 6.9%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.9%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.4% above, its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 1.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.46t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.69% compared with 6.31% in the previous session and the average of 6.11% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -77.1146| -2.1| 0/48
Financials | -57.2551| -0.6| 4/21
Information Technology | -17.6105| -0.6| 4/6
Energy | -8.3020| -0.2| 11/29
Industrials | -6.9902| -0.2| 13/15
Consumer Staples | -2.0016| -0.2| 1/9
Health Care | -1.4883| -2.2| 0/3
Communication Services | -1.0598| -0.2| 1/4
Consumer Discretionary | -0.4076| 0.0| 4/5
Real Estate | 0.6362| 0.1| 9/10
Utilities | 1.6755| 0.2| 10/4
Intact Financial | -24.6400| -6.5| 274.5| 9.1
Shopify | -13.8800| -1.0| 3.1| 11.3
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | -11.0100| -1.8| -10.9| 51.8
Bank of Nova Scotia| 3.5710| 0.5| -21.0| 0.4
RBC | 4.5490| 0.3| -35.4| 3.3
TD Bank | 5.9020| 0.5| -28.5| 33.0
(MT Newswires):
(Includes commentary on the Bank of Canada from Macquarie Group)
The Toronto Stock Exchange dropped nearly 160 points from record high levels Wednesday, likely on some profit taking, but also as one economist suggested Bank of Canada officials “haven’t a clue what to do next” after they left the benchmark interest rate unchanged, as expected, today, while also leaving the door ajar for a possible rate cut to come this year.
The TSX closed down 169.92 points or 0.6% at 27,369.96.
This after it posted a record close of 27,539.88 on Tuesday.
Most sectors were lower, led by Base Metals (-3.2%) and Health Care (-2.6%).
Utilities made a modest gain.
It wasn’t just uncertainty around the outlook for rates that weighed on the TSX.
Trade uncertainties were also a negative factor.
On Wednesday afternoon, ahead of an August 1 deadline for a deal, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order that adds a 50% tariff on certain copper imports from Friday.
But, according to Canada’s CBC News, the levy does not apply to copper concentrate, with Canadians accounting for 99% of all copper concentrate imported by its bigger North America neighbor.
This comes as tariffs on a range of Canadian product are slated to rise to 35% from 25% as of Friday, But the tariffs will not apply to goods that are compliant with the Canada-U.S. trade agreement, which is up for renewal next year.
Sectors including aluminum and steel, and autos, have been threatened with tariffs.
CBC cited RBC as saying near 90% of the value of Canadian exports to the U.S. qualify for an exemption from tariffs.
On rates, the BoC held the overnight rate steady for a third consecutive meeting, while leaving the door open to future cuts.
The overnight rate has remained at 2.75% since March, after seven consecutive rate cuts lowered it from last year’s peak of 5%.
For his part, Derek Holt, Vice-President & Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, said a “lack of any useful forward guidance and continued avoidance of a base case forecast in favor of three scenarios now versus two back in the prior MPR [Monetary Policy Report] in April basically said they haven’t a clue what to do next”.
He added: “I don’t find we learned anything new whatsoever about the policy bias from this set of communications.”
Despite recent decisions to hold, RBC’s Claire Fan said past rate cuts from the BoC are likely still taking time to support the economy.
But with mortgage rates mostly stabilizing near or above origination back in 2020-2021 origination levels, the effect on households is more like easing off the brakes than pressing on the gas, she added.
“Today,” Fan said, “the car is in neutral, and the outlook is still hazy.
Tariffs in place today have been less severe than feared but Canada as one of the largest trade partners to the U.S., remains particularly vulnerable to protectionist U.S. trade policies.
In two days, the latest U.S. self-imposed trade negotiation deadline could result in escalated tariffs beyond today’s targeted but relatively limited levels.”
According to Fan, a significantly more negative outlook, one that resembles spring, remains a downside risk.
Fan said while the BoC projects inflation will rise in that kind of a scenario as tariff impacts outweigh economic weakness, further rate cuts would be appropriate if it became clear that the economy was sliding into recession.
“Barring such deterioration and following our base case, we expect the BoC will maintain current rates going forward,” she added.
David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, noted ongoing uncertainty and recent elevated underlying inflation readings featured prominently in the BoC’s decision.
He also noted forward guidance continued to suggest the potential for a cut ahead is still couched in data dependence.
“Looking ahead, the outlook is uncertain. Market pricing for cuts moderated slightly on the announcement and have been broadly lessening since late March,” Doyle said.
Doyle noted Governor Macklem struck a similar tone in his press conference as he did in June, emphasizing that elevated uncertainty means the BoC is putting more weight on risks and taking a shorter time horizon than usual.
He echoed the key forward guidance line from the statement, indicating that “if a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation and the upward pressures from the trade disruptions are contained, there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.”
In describing the economy, he indicated that while excess supply has increased since January, there has been resilience thus far.
Macquarie’s forecast is that there will be greater economic weakness in the second half of 2025 than implied by the BoC’s current tariff scenario and a moderation in underlying inflation.
This leads it to anticipate about 50 bps in further cuts with these most likely to occur in October and December.
“Should growth hold in better than we anticipate and underlying inflation remain firm, however, the BoC is likely to continue to stay the course,” Doyle added.
Of commodities, gold moved lower midafternoon Wednesday ahead of the end to the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy committee that, as expected, left U.S. interest rates unchanged, while reports showed the U.S. economy rose at a faster than expected pace in the second quarter.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $27.70 to US$3,353.50 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher, climbing for a third session even as a report showed an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $0.79 to settle at US$70.00 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen up $0.68 to US$73.19. Price: 27369.96, Change: -169.92, Percent Change: -0.6
US
By Rita Nazareth and Lu Wang
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s hopes the Federal Reserve would signal imminent rate cuts went mostly unfulfilled Wednesday, with stocks and bonds down to cap an otherwise bumper month for risk assets.
In late hours, Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. jumped after their results.
An initially calm investor reaction was broken when Fed Chair Jerome Powell said no decision has been made about easing policy in September.
The US labor market “looks solid,” he said, while inflation remains above target, statements traders interpreted as working against the case for an imminent rate cut.
Equities erased gains, with the S&P 500 down 0.1%. US two- year yields climbed seven basis points to 3.93%.
While the concerted pullback in stocks and bonds looked mild, it marked tumbled as President Donald Trump’s tariffs excluded the refined metal.
While Trump has pressed for an immediate rate cut, investors in risk assets have largely tempered expectations for a Fed pivot anytime soon.
Instead, they’re leaning on resilient economic growth, an AI-fueled earnings boom, and the belief that tariffs will only trigger manageable goods inflation while leaving services inflation contained.
And even though declines in stocks and bonds reflected revisions to market expectations, they came amid another deliberate effort by Powell to characterize the central bank as in a good position to assess the economy as it develops.
Even as both he and the Fed’s communique signaled a slight slowdown in growth Powell repeatedly said policy makers have ample time to assess the impact of Trump’s evolving tariff policy and other data going forward.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-2 on Wednesday to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.5%, as they have at each of their meetings this year.
Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voted against the decision in favor of a quarter-point cut.
“It appears the Fed will remain data dependent going into its next meeting,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“To get that rate cut, the Fed will need to gain confidence that either inflation increases will be one-off and muted, or that inflation will continue to trend lower in the months and quarters ahead.
That’s assuming we don’t see a notable deterioration in the labor market.”
Money markets pared bets on rate reductions this year and traders now see a less than 50% chance of a cut in September.
The odds for a reduction in October dropped to around 85%, whereas it was fully priced-in before Powell began to speak.
“The next two months’ data will be pivotal, and we see a path to a resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle in the autumn should tariff inflation prove more modest than expected or the labor market show signs of weakness,” said Ashish Shah at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
US companies stepped up hiring in July, though the pace remained consistent with weaker labor demand.
Private-sector payrolls increased by 104,000, according to ADP Research data.
The median economist estimate called for a 76,000 gain.
The July employment report due Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes government positions, is expected to show job growth moderated and unemployment rose.
Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, which measures the value of goods and services produced in the US, increased an annualized 3% in the second quarter, according to preliminary government data out Wednesday.
As solid as the pace was, economic growth averaged 1.25% in the first half, a percentage point cooler than the pace for 2024.
The S&P 500, coming off its best streak of gains since 2020, is about to enter what has historically been its toughest stretch of the year.
Over the past three decades, the benchmark has performed the worst in August and September, losing 0.7% on average in each month, compared with a 1.1% gain on average across other months, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Though equities have likely not peaked this year, we see limited upside given the historically high multiples at which market-leading stocks are trading, according to Chris Brigati at SWBC.
“We are entering a seasonal period of weakness for the market suggesting a fall pullback may be on the horizon before the next move toward higher stock prices in 2026,” he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Palo Alto Networks Inc. agreed to buy CyberArk Software Ltd. in a cash-and-stock deal valuing the Israeli cybersecurity company at about $25 billion.
* Humana Inc. raised its profit guidance for the year, bucking a trend in the US health insurance industry after most other companies cut their forecasts in recent months.
* Harley-Davidson Inc. said tariffs crimped profits in the second quarter as high borrowing costs sapped demand and forced the motorcycle manufacturer to cut production.
* Kraft Heinz Co. used price increases to help offset volume declines as the company continues a strategic review of its brands.
* Hershey Co. lowered its full-year profit guidance in part on tariff costs but is hopeful that the Trump administration will offer relief for products, like cocoa, that can’t be grown in the US.
* Starbucks Corp. sales and profit fell more than anticipated, signaling that a plan to revive growth by speeding up service and making cafes more welcoming has yet to bear fruit.
* Visa Inc., the world’s biggest payments network, left its earnings outlook unchanged for the rest of the fiscal year.
* SoFi Technologies Inc., a provider of consumer financial services, said it’s selling $1.5 billion of stock.
* Tesla Inc. agreed to buy $4.3 billion worth of US-built batteries from LG Energy Solution Ltd., a person familiar with the matter said, in a deal that should eventually boost the carmaker’s slowing energy storage business.
* Airbus SE reported a bigger-than-expected cash outflow in the first half as a shortage of engines for its bestselling A320neo jet delayed deliveries of new aircraft.
* Bunge Global SA’s second-quarter profits fell to the lowest in seven years as lingering uncertainty over tariffs and US biofuel policy continued to pressure crop traders and processors.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.8%
* The euro fell 1.1% to $1.1424
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.3246
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 149.40 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $116,904.97
* Ether fell 0.1% to $3,759.86
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.37%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.60%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 3.93%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.89%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.7% to $70.40 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.7% to $3,270.81 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You can’t build a reputation on what you are going to do. -Henry Ford, 1863-1947.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Olsok: Commemoration Day today for Viking King Olaf, Norway.
July 29, 1914: Transcontinental telephone service began with the first phone conversation between New York and San Francisco.  Go to article
July 29, 1958: The United States creates NASA, centralizing civilian space exploration and marking a new era in the space race.

Welcome to the Grocery Store Where Prices Change 100 Times a Day:

Electronic shelf labels are spreading at grocery chains in Europe and the U.S., enabling instant price drops—and raising fears of surge pricing.

‘Time travel’ memory hack rejuvenates memories, study finds
A new study suggests that recalling the context in which a memory was made can help to restore the memory after it has started to erode. Read More.

NASA spacecraft snaps images of lunar transit and Earth eclipse on the same day — see the photos
The Solar Dynamics Observatory saw a lunar transit and an Earth eclipse on July 25 — the first when the moon passed between it and the sun, and another when Earth did the same. Read More.

Ancient shark discovered deep inside world’s longest cave system
The National Park Service has announced another ancient shark discovery at Mammoth Cave in Kentucky. The latest find, named Macadens olsoni, had a unique curved row of teeth and lived around 340 million years ago. Read More.

Scientists hit quantum computer error rate of 0.000015% — a world record achievement that could lead to smaller and faster machines
The record-breaking achievement could lead to practical, utility-scale quantum computers that are both smaller and faster. Read More.

Luminous star may have a hidden companion
Using an instrument on the Gemini North telescope in Hawaii, astronomers have observed a “Betelbuddy.”

Jean Smart has fun fan encounter
The “Hacks” star was greeting admirers outside the theater where her Broadway show “Call Me Izzy” is playing when one fan made an intriguing request.

TikTok made this “diet food” popular
And manufacturers are struggling to keep up with skyrocketing demand.

What’s the secret to longevity?
A 109-year-old woman reveals what has kept her alive for so long.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
England fans cheer as Chloe Kelly scores a penalty to win the Euro 2025 final against Spain
Photograph: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images

Rue Lepic in Paris as the riders ascend Côte de la Butte Montmartre on the Stage 4, Amiens to Rouen
Cycling and sunflowers, what’s not to like?
Photograph: Thibault Camus/AP

Kep beach, Cambodia
‘A child checking crab pots as the sun sets.’
Photograph: Charlotte Thompson
Market Closes for July 29^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44632.99	-204.57
		-0.46%
S&P 500	6370.86	-18.91
		-0.30%
NASDAQ	21098.29	-80.29
		-0.38%
TSX	27539.88	+134.46
		+0.49%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40674.55	-323.72
		-0.79%
HANG SENG	25524.45	-37.68
		-0.15%
SENSEX	81337.95	+446.93
		+0.55%
FTSE 100*	9136.32	+54.88
		+0.60%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.473	3.528
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.791	3.844
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3204	4.4098
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8563	4.9585

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7260	0.7279
US $	1.3774	1.3738

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5908	0.6286
US $	1.1551	0.8657

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3305.25	3334.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	69.21	66.71

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1869, the New York Stock Exchange was formed from the merger of the New York Stock & Exchange Board with the Open Board and the Government Board, where Treasury bonds were traded.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 27,539.88 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.9% on July 17 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 140 of 212 shares rose, while 71 fell.
Celestica Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 16.9%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.5%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.2% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 3.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.31% compared with 6.24% in the previous session and the average of 6.08% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 43.2169| 1.2| 35/13
Energy | 35.5507| 0.8| 31/9
Industrials | 20.2690| 0.6| 13/16
Information Technology | 16.3723| 0.6| 5/5
Real Estate | 8.6089| 1.7| 17/2
Utilities | 5.9617| 0.6| 9/5
Consumer Staples | 4.5270| 0.4| 8/1
Health Care | 1.2840| 2.0| 2/1
Financials | -0.0946| 0.0| 16/9
Communication Services | -0.6040| -0.1| 1/4
Consumer Discretionary | -0.6403| -0.1| 3/6
Celestica | 32.5500| 16.9| 135.1| 109.8
Waste Connections | 15.6600| 3.4| 29.8| 7.2
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 13.5500| 2.3| -29.6| 54.6
TD Bank | -5.7810| -0.5| -30.3| 32.4
CIBC | -10.1200| -1.5| 44.6| 10.0
Shopify | -18.6500| -1.3| -21.6| 12.4
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange rebounded to a fresh record high on Tuesday, buoyed by elevated commodity prices and hopes that free trade carveouts will be a key part of an eventual tariffs deal between Canada and the United States.
The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 134.46 points to 27,539.88, topping the prior record of 27,494.35 set on June 23.
Most sectors were higher.
The biggest gainers were Info tech, up 2.15%, Healthcare up 1.6% and Energy, up 1%.
Base Metals, down 1%, was the biggest decliner.
While the Bank of Canada is seen by nearly all market watchers as holding its benchmark interest rate steady when it provides an economic update tomorrow, the big uncertainty for onlookers remains what kind of a trade deal can the Canadian federal government agree on with the Trump administration.
As The Canadian Press reported today, it’s unclear if the two countries will stick to the August 1 deadline for wrapping up talks.
It noted Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday negotiations were in an “intense phase,” but U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters last week that Canada wasn’t a priority for his administration amid trade talks with other partners.
Whether a deal is announced Friday or later, Canadian Press cited Canadian Federation of Independent Business president Dan Kelly as saying his organization’s members feel “a good chunk” of trade must remain tariff-free in order for talks to be considered successful.
Canadian Press noted a deal struck by the U.S. with the European Union on Sunday imposes a 15% tariff on most goods imported into the U.S., including European automobiles, and no carveouts for key products like pharmaceuticals and steel.
Kelly is cited by The Canadian Press as saying he would not consider it a win for Canada if its trade agreement with the U.S. ends up looking similar to that deal.
He said the goal should be to keep zero tariffs on products that are currently protected under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.
“What’s most critical, I’d say, for businesses right now is … whether we’re going to be able to protect the CUSMA exemption,” said Kelly.
“The sectoral tariffs on cars, on copper, on aluminum and steel, they’re definitely hurting, but for most manufactured goods there is a pathway to have them effectively tariff-free at the moment and we’re hoping that is maintained.”
Of commodities today, gold moved higher following four losing sessions even as the dollar rose ahead of the start of the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy committee that is expected to end with U.S. interest rates unchanged.
Gold for December delivery was up $15.20 to US$3,382.00 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at the highest in more than a month as investors move to risk assets on hopes that the United States will reach a trade deal with China, while U.S. President Donald Trump said he will impose sanctions on Russia if it does not reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine within 10 days.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $2.50 to settle at US$69.21 per barrel, the highest since June 23, while September Brent crude was last seen up $2.49 to US$72.53.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders sent stocks lower in the run-up to the Federal Reserve decision, with concerns about high valuations overshadowing hopes for an extension of a tariff truce between the world’s two largest economies.
Bonds climbed alongside the dollar.
The S&P 500 snapped a six-day winning streak.
A rally in Treasuries gained steam after a solid sale of seven-year notes.
Longer-dated bonds led gains, with 30-year yields down 10 basis points to 4.86%.
Ahead of the announcement of the size of future debt auctions.
Oil jumped as President Donald Trump reiterated the US may impose additional tariffs on Russia and said the nation has 10 days to reach a truce with Ukraine.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before it expires in two weeks and that Trump will make the final call on any extension.
Adding an extra 90 days is one option, Bessent said.
Just as it happened after the US tariff deal with the European Union, the underwhelming market reaction to signs of progress in China talks illustrates the steady decline in the ability of those initiatives to spur big moves on Wall Street.
There are other market-moving factors on the horizon.
Those include Wednesday’s Fed decision and key data like the jobs report on Friday.
The market also faces a crucial test, with four tech giants reporting earnings over a two-day stretch.
“Investors are now more focused on hard data to validate the economic and policy outlook, rather than over-interpreting trade agreements,” said Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd.
On the economic front, US consumer confidence increased in July as concerns eased about the outlook for the broader economy and the labor market.
While job openings fell, they hovered at a level that indicates generally stable demand for workers.
“Overall, it was a mixed round of data that has done little to materially challenge the price action or macro narrative,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
In a rare occurrence, policymakers will convene in the same week that the government issues report on gross domestic product, employment and the Fed’s preferred price metrics.
Fed officials meet Tuesday and Wednesday and are widely expected to keep rates unchanged again.
Forecasters anticipate the heavy dose of data will show economic activity rebounded in the second quarter, largely due to a sharp narrowing of the trade deficit, while job growth moderated in July.
The third marquee report may show underlying inflation picked up slightly in June from a month earlier.
With the Fed’s benchmark rate holding at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December, the business world is looking for any clue that officials are moving toward a rate reduction in the fall.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell could face dissent from one or more colleagues arguing it’s time for the central bank to provide more support to a slowing labor market.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed investors anticipate a mixed/negligible market reaction to the Fed decision, 33% said “risk-on” and only 11% “risk-off.”
Assuming no cut on Wednesday, the majority of respondents expect two Fed reductions in 2025.
“We believe the Fed wants to maintain flexibility on when to deploy further rate cuts.
In our view, the Fed will remain on hold until ‘hard data’ begins to confirm the slow-down story,” said Luis Alvarado at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“The Fed will have the opportunity to cut rates later in the year if the economy slows and as long as inflation allows.”
At eToro, Bret Kenwell says consumers and businesses continue to show their optimism and resilience in the face of multiple headwinds.
“As good as that feels right now, we have yet to take on this week’s main hurdles, which include tomorrow’s Fed meeting, Friday’s jobs report, and a bevy of earnings,” Kenwell said.
“If those events tell a similar story of economic and labor market stability, equity markets have the catalysts in place to continue higher, with pullbacks likely being viewed as buying opportunities.”
Wall Street strategists have a message for investors worrying about signs of excessive optimism emerging as US stocks extend their record run: Any near-term pullback will likely create a buying opportunity.
Strategists from HSBC Holdings Plc, Morgan Stanley and UBS Group AG are maintaining their long-term bullish views even as concerns build that valuations have become stretched at the moment.
They see strong corporate earnings and economic data, growing clarity around tariffs and the tailwind of artificial intelligence propelling stocks higher into next year.
“While we expect equities to advance over the next 12 months, investors should be mindful of potential market swings in the coming weeks,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We think capital preservation or phasing-in strategies can be effective in navigating near-term volatility.”
Long positioning on US equity futures keeps increasing, led by rising exposure to the S&P 500 in the past week, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Chris Montagu.
Investors are pricing the US stock market as if there’s no longer any risk of a tariff-driven recession.  Peter Oppenheimer isn’t so sure.
The chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says it’s possible that tariffs bite hard enough to hurt equity prices even as Washington agrees on deals with key trading partners.
And while the US might dodge a recession, valuations are high enough that it’s prudent to keep diversifying into other markets.

Corporate Highlights:
* Union Pacific Corp. agreed to acquire Norfolk Southern Corp. in a $72 billion cash-and-stock transaction, forming the only US transcontinental railroad in what stands to be the industry’s largest deal ever.
* Baker Hughes Co. agreed to buy industrial equipment maker Chart Industries Inc. for about $9.6 billion in cash, expanding the oilfield service giant’s reach into liquefied natural gas, data centers and other technologies.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. is in advanced talks to replace Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in its credit-card joint venture with Apple Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* Microsoft Corp. is in advanced talks to land a deal that could give it ongoing access to critical OpenAI technology, an agreement that would remove a major obstacle to the startup’s efforts to become a for-profit enterprise.
* United Parcel Service Inc. said economic volatility continues to roil its operations, underscoring the challenges for the courier’s effort to reconfigure its network and revitalize its business.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. flight attendants rejected a new contract that would have provided cumulative pay increases of as much as 45.6% over five years.
* JetBlue Airways Corp. posted a smaller-than-expected loss in the second quarter as demand rebounded and efforts to turn around the struggling carrier gained traction.
* Procter & Gamble Co. issued a wider range than usual for its annual sales outlook, underscoring the volatility US companies continue to navigate even as the Trump administration begins to strike trade deals.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. offered fresh profit guidance that was far below its early projections and below all analyst expectations. Executives also declined to explicitly affirm a long-term growth outlook that the company has pointed investors to for years, a sign that its challenges aren’t going away any time soon.
* Merck & Co. is slashing $3 billion from its annual spending as it braces for off-brand competition to its cancer drug Keytruda, the best-selling medicine in the world.
* Whirlpool Corp. tumbled as tariff uncertainty upended expected benefits from the levy regime, forcing the appliance-maker to slash its outlook and dividend to shore up its financial position.
* Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.’s quarterly profit outlook trailed expectations because of costs related to its newest ship.
* Boeing Co. almost halted its cash burn in the second quarter, indicating that a turnaround initiated by Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg a year ago is paying off as the company delivers more aircraft.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. reported slower growth in payment volume and company executives said they were seeing softer retail spending as a result of the US tariff wars.
* Spotify Technology SA swung to a loss in the second quarter, missing analysts’ estimates after the music-streaming service recorded higher-than-expected expenses related to employee compensation.
* Novo Nordisk A/S named its head of international operations as chief executive officer after slumping weight-loss drug sales led to a profit warning that wiped $93 billion off its market value.
* Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. climbed after US regulators reversed course and recommended that patients who can walk be allowed to take its gene therapy Elevidys again.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1551
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3358
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 148.51 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $117,509.14
* Ether fell 0.6% to $3,764.8
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.32%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.63%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4% to $69.36 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,325.20 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
We must be willing to let go of the life we planned so as to have the life that is waiting for us. –Joseph Campbell, 1904-1987.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

July 28, 1914: World War I begins as Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, setting Europe on a path to global conflict.

July 28, 1945: A U.S. Army bomber crashed into the 79th floor of New York City’s Empire State Building, killing 14 people.  Go to article.

Beatrix Potter, writer, b.1866.
Lucy Burns, Suffragist, born in Brooklyn in 1879.
Marcel Duchamp, surrealist, b.1887
Jacqueline Kennedy, first lady, b.1929.
Terry Fox, cancer fundraiser, b.1958

Ancient DNA suggests ancestors of Estonians, Finns and Hungarians lived in Siberia 4,500 years ago
A study of genomes from ancient Siberian people shows genetic linkages with people living in Estonia, Finland and Hungary today. Read More.

Moon, Mars, and meteors: Why July 28 is the best night for skywatching all summer
A conjunction between a crescent moon and Mars joins an ongoing display of “shooting stars,” making July 28 one of the best nights for skywatching all summer. Read More.

The more advanced AI models get, the better they are at deceiving us — they even know when they’re being tested
More advanced AI systems show a better capacity to scheme and lie to us, and they know when they’re being watched — so they change their behavior to hide their deceptions. Read More.

Scientists are keeping an eye on this asteroid
The building-sized object initially appeared to be on a potential collision course with Earth. Now it may have a new target.

Marvel is back on top
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” defeated a DC superhero to finish No. 1 at the box office over the weekend.

Beyoncé caps off Cowboy Carter tour with a bang 
The lucky fans who attended her farewell show in Las Vegas on Saturday night were treated to a starry lineup of surprise guests.

Gwyneth Paltrow’s latest role: Astronomer spokesperson
The actress appeared in a new ad for the tech firm whose ex-CEO and HR chief were caught embracing on the “kiss cam” at a Coldplay concert.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Ortisei, Italy
Tourists onboard a Seceda cable car travelling to the summit from the alpine town centre
Photograph: Simone Padovani/Getty Images

Shanghai, China
Revellers watch a boxing match between two remote-controlled robots by Unitree Robotics during the World Artificial Intelligence Conference
Photograph: Héctor Retamal/AFP/Getty Images

Stage 3, Valenciennes to Dunkerque
The peloton cycles under decorative streamers hung above the race route in Aire-sur-la-Lys.
Photograph: Marco Bertorello/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 28^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44837.56	-64.36
		-0.14%
S&P 500	6389.77	+1.13
		+0.02%
NASDAQ	21178.59	+70.27
		+0.33%
TSX	27405.42	-88.93
		-0.32%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40998.27	-457.96
		-1.10%
HANG SENG	25562.13	+173.78
		+0.68%
SENSEX	80891.02	-572.07
		-0.70%
FTSE 100*	9081.44	-38.87
		-0.43%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.528	3.526
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.844	3.840
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4098	4.3878
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9585	4.9296

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7279	0.7298
US $	1.3738	1.3702

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5923	0.6280
US $	1.1592	0.8626

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3334.50	3365.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	66.71	66.11

Market Commentary:
Marx’s great achievement was to place the system of capitalism on the defensive. -Charles A. Madison, 1895-1985.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 27,405.42 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.5% on July 15 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.4%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 142 of 212 shares fell, while 66 rose.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.0%.
New Gold Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.0%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on July 25, 2025, and 26.5% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.45t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.24% compared with 6.11% in the previous session and the average of 6.07% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -55.4196| -1.5| 3/44
Financials | -36.0864| -0.4| 9/15
Industrials | -21.8284| -0.6| 9/19
Communication Services | -8.4566| -1.3| 0/5
Consumer Staples | -6.9482| -0.7| 2/8
Utilities | -6.8274| -0.7| 2/12
Real Estate | -6.0683| -1.2| 1/18
Consumer Discretionary | -3.2093| -0.3| 3/6
Health Care | -0.0485| -0.1| 1/2
Information Technology | 23.0992| 0.8| 3/7
Energy | 32.8690| 0.8| 33/6
RBC | -17.6000| -1.0| 16.8| 3.4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -13.8600| -2.3| -8.6| 51.1
TD Bank | -10.3600| -0.8| -42.0| 33.0
Suncor | 9.0130| 2.0| 17.8| 7.0
Canadian Natural Resources | 12.6000| 2.0| -59.1| -1.1
Shopify | 30.1500| 2.1| -29.2| 13.8
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed down from a record high on Monday amid some profit taking and as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney indicated a trade deal with the United States that does not include tariffs is unlikely to be reached, raising concerns around what level eventual levies might be set at.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 88.93 points to 27,405.42 with most sectors lower, led by the Battery Metals Index and Telecoms, both down about 1.5%. Energy was easily the biggest gainer, up 1.9%.
The United States agreed to trade deals that set a 15% tariff on most goods it trades with both the European Union and Japan respectively, but Canada is under the threat of 35% tariffs on exports if a deal with its North America neighbor and largest trading partner cannot be reached by an Aug. 1 deadline.
Canada already faces U.S. levies on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, while new tariffs on copper are slated for introduction early next month.
Earlier Monday Prime Minister Mark Carney took questions on the fringes of a government event at which he indicated that a trade deal without tariffs was unlikely.
Carney said “there is a landing zone that is possible” for Canada to reach in terms of agreeing the best possible deal.
Meanwhile, former White House official Larry Haas said the Canadian government has reason to be concerned.
“The tone between the United States and Canada is a lot more negative than the tone seems to be between the United States and the E..U.,” Haas said during an interview with CTV News on Sunday.
“I think both countries … are preparing for the very strong possibility that we’re going to get tariffs.”
According to Haas, the deadline could still shift, depending on economic signals.
“Trump has backed away from other deadlines when it came to tariffs,” he told CTV, before adding: “If we approach August 1 and these tariffs are looming, and the stock market all of a sudden becomes shaky, I could envision another extension.”
While CTV noted that Canada has taken steps to respond to U.S. pressure, including boosting border inspections and cancelling a digital services tax, Haas noted the Canadian government faces a difficult negotiating environment.
“President Trump respects strength as opposed to weakness,” he said. “Canada needs to make clear to the United States that it’s not going to take just any deal.”
Of commodities, gold moved lower late afternoon on Monday as the dollar rose after a weekend trade agreement between the United States and the European Union calmed fears of a spreading global trade war, easing safe-haven demand.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $18.90 to US$3,373.60 per ounce, remaining off the July 22 record high of US$3,501.80 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher on the U.S. and Europe trade deal, with the Europeans agreeing to raise purchases of U.S. energy.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up US$1.55 to settle at US$66.71 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen up US$1.52 to US$69.96.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street kicked off a pivotal week with stocks holding at record highs while the dollar climbed the most since May as a tariff deal between President Donald Trump and the European Union bolstered hopes for an extension of a China trade truce.
Bonds edged lower.
The start of a key week for markets saw a dollar gauge up nearly 1%, extending its July rally.
The euro slid the most in over two months.
The S&P 500 briefly topped 6,400 to close little changed.
Treasuries barely budged amid mixed results from US debt sales.
Oil rose as Trump said he’d shorten his timeline for Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine.
In the run-up to the Aug. 1 US tariff deadline, traders will go through a raft of key data from jobs to inflation and economic activity.
The big event comes Wednesday when the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged.
Then there’s a string of big-tech earnings, with four mega caps worth a combined $11.3 trillion reporting results.
“This is about as busy as a week can get in the markets,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“This week could make or break that momentum in the near term.”
US and Chinese officials finished the first of two days of talks aimed at extending their tariff truce beyond a mid-August deadline and hashing out ways to maintain trade ties while safeguarding economic security.
Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government is still deep in trade talks with the Trump administration.
The Treasury jacked up its estimate for federal borrowing for the current quarter to $1 trillion, mainly due to distortions from the debt limit.
On Wednesday, the department will announce its plans for note and bond sales over coming months — which dealers widely see as staying unchanged.
Speaking in Scotland on Sunday to announce the EU deal, Trump gave a brief update on Washington’s relations with Beijing.
“We’re very close to a deal with China. We really sort of made a deal with China, but we’ll see how that goes,” he said without elaborating.
“It is possible that as more trade deals are announced, the level of uncertainty that has hovered over business and the economy will ease,” said Brent Schutte at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co.
“Additionally, the impact of final trade deals could be less than originally forecast after the April 2 announcement of reciprocal tariffs.”
To Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group, while the dollar’s strength today may reflect the perception that the new EU deal is lopsided in favor of the US, it may also reflect a feeling that America is reengaging with its major allies.
“Whether we agree or not with the use of tariffs and the deals announced, we are getting the big ones out of the way which will allow American businesses to adjust and plan, for better or worse,” said Peter Boockvar at the Boock Report.
“And we can now focus on how this all plays out.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will step into the central bank’s board room on Tuesday to deliberate on rates at a time of immense political pressure, evolving trade policy, and economic crosscurrents.
In a rare occurrence, policymakers will convene in the same week that the government issues reports on gross domestic product, employment and the Fed’s preferred price metrics.
Forecasters anticipate the heavy dose of data will show economic activity rebounded in the second quarter.
While the stock market is moving sideways after a solid run, “if we get no surprises in earnings and some dovish comments by the Fed, it’s likely we’ll see yet more new highs by the end of the week,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.
“We do not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on Wednesday, but it’s possible that they make a stronger signal that cuts are on the horizon in the fall, especially as the inflation data continues to stay muted even in this tariff environment,” said Rick Gardner at RGA Investments.
Gardner also says that while stock market valuations are high, that in and of itself is not a reason why valuations can’t expand even further from here.
In fact, this earnings season is off to a solid start, and all eyes will be on results from Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. on Wednesday, and Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. on Thursday.
So far, Corporate America appears to be taking tariffs in stride.
With about a third of S&P 500 firms having reported, roughly 82% have beaten profit forecasts, on track for the best quarter in about four years, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.
Progress in trade negotiations will take the S&P 500 to a third consecutive year of 20% gains, according to Oppenheimer Asset Management’s John Stoltzfus, a feat unseen since the late 1990s.
He raised his year-end target for the US benchmark to 7,100.
Some market forecasters including Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson have turned more optimistic about the S&P 500 as they expect earnings to remain upbeat.
The technical evidence suggests a broadening of participation in equities off the April low, according to Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“Despite a slight easing in momentum as investors await earnings, the combination of several major indices at all-time highs and improving market breadth continues to draw investors off the sidelines, offering opportunities to buy the dip,” he said.
At RBC Capital Markets, Lori Calvasina says it would be premature to write off the impact of tariffs on inflation and corporate earnings.
“It also poses a risk to the path of stock prices if company outlooks for 2026 don’t end up being as rosy as investors have been anticipating,” she noted.
The S&P 500 is trading around 22.5 times projected earnings, compared to a 10-year average of 18.6.
That’s sparked concerns that there may be little room for error.
The stock market’s stunning rebound and resilience have again emboldened equity investors, who have developed muscle memory around ‘buying the dip’,” according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“With volatility having decoupled from stress indicators, passive indexes have ground to new highs, while the most speculative corners of the market have begun to lead,” she said.
“Complacency is elevated, and valuations are rich. In this environment, we want to be stock pickers.”
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, this may be the most compelling intersection of technical momentum and fundamental strength we’ve seen in a long time.
“The S&P hasn’t had a 1% move in over a month and yet bears have capitulated,” he said. “No one’s willing to short this market, and even typically skeptical investors are getting pulled in. While it’s not a blow-off top yet, the odds of that happening are rising.”
If sentiment keeps shifting and dip buyers remain aggressive, we could see a classic melt-up – and any near-term weakness over the next several weeks is likely to be bought aggressively, he said.
“However, for now, bears are hibernating through the summer,” Hackett concluded.
“We would lean toward being more bullish than bearish on US stocks through year-end, but not outside of a balanced portfolio based on risk,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“However, that view is contingent on positive corporate profitability and economic growth this year, avoiding worst-case tariff scenarios, and investors remaining willing to ‘buy the dip’.”
Markets have found reassurance in several developments, according to Invesco Global Market Strategy Office.
“For one, the worst fears that manifested around trade in early April haven’t materialized, and key trade agreements are being signed,” the strategists said.
“Tariff rates remain vastly elevated compared to last year, but they appear manageable.
In our view, it’s likely that the cost can be shared between businesses and consumers without a meaningful impact on growth or inflation.”
Invesco strategists also noted that what should really matter for stocks in the medium and long-term is earnings.
“After a strong market rally, investors should prepare for renewed volatility in the near term,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Potential market dips could offer an opportunity for investors to build long-term exposure to stocks.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Samsung Electronics Co. will produce AI semiconductors for Tesla Inc. in a new $16.5 billion pact that marks a win for its underperforming foundry division.
* Texas Instruments Inc. was upgraded to outperform at Wolfe Research, which said the chipmaker is “near the end” of a spending cycle.
* Cisco Systems Inc. was downgraded to inline at Evercore, which mentioned valuation following recent gains.
* Nike Inc. was raised to overweight at JPMorgan Chase & Co., which cited the earnings impact of the sportswear maker’s five- pronged multi-year recovery plan.
* Albertsons Cos. demanded that Kroger Co. provide details on personal conduct that led the company to replace its chief executive officer, who shepherded the failed $24.6 billion takeover that’s now the focus of litigation between the two companies.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. will soon allow businesses to accept more than one hundred cryptocurrencies at checkout.
* Roche Holding AG plans to test whether an experimental medicine can prevent Alzheimer’s disease symptoms in high-risk people, its latest investment in one of the most failure-prone areas of drug making.
* Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. said Monday that it’s owed a $100 million milestone payment from Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. within the next two months, pressuring the beleaguered biotech company just days after it stopped selling its biggest drug due to safety concerns.
* EssilorLuxottica SA posted better-than-expected revenue in the second quarter, as the world’s biggest eyewear maker showed strong gains in Europe and pressed ahead with its smart-glasses initiative.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. announced the names of the two companies resulting from a planned separation of the streaming and studios business from its cable-TV networks.

What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“A European trade deal and new China talks will go a long way to bolster risk sentiment in the days ahead, with the Aug. 1 deadline now largely irrelevant. With some level of framework in place for Europe, China and Japan, investors are gaining more visibility into the contours of global trade — and so far, they’re not particularly worried.”
-Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.8%
* The euro fell 1.3% to $1.1592
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3355
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 148.56 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $118,128.17
* Ether fell 0.6% to $3,802.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3% to $67.10 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.6% to $3,317.25 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Do the thing you fear most, and the death of fear is certain. –Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Friday.
St. James the Great Day.
Pilgrimage of St. Anne d’Auray, France.

July 25, 1893: The Panic of 1893 reached its low point, with nearly one-quarter of the nation’s railroads heading into bankruptcy and the directors of the NYSE nearly closing down the exchange.
July 25, 1909: Louis Blériot makes the first aeroplane flight across the English Channel, proving practical aviation is possible.
July 25, 1978:The first baby conceived by in-vitro fertilization was born in Oldham, England.  Go to article  

July 25, 1969: The Seattle Pop Festival is held at Woodinville’s Gold Creek Park. Over three days, 25 musicians and groups perform, including Led Zeppelin, Chuck Berry, The Byrds, Chicago Transit Authority, Bo Diddley, the Doors, Guess Who, Santana, Ike & Tina Turner and the Youngbloods. More than 50,000 fans attend, with tickets $6 a day or $15 for three days. Neighbors complain of traffic and the “hippie atmosphere,” but fans are orderly with a few exceptions. (The next month, Woodstock Festival draws 500,000 music fans to Bethel, N.Y.) (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

Iman, model/actress, b. 1955.

Earth is starting to spin faster — and scientists are considering doing something unprecedented
Two days this summer have been unusually short, with the shortest expected on Aug. 5, leading global timekeepers to consider adding a negative leap second. Read More.

3,800-year-old burial of tall warrior buried with 4-pronged spearhead unearthed in Azerbaijan
The burial holds a Bronze Age man who stood more than 6 feet, 6 inches tall and may have been a military leader. Read More.

3I/ATLAS is 7 miles wide — the largest interstellar object ever seen — new photos from Vera C. Rubin Observatory reveal
Detailed photos from the newly operational Vera C. Rubin Observatory have revealed that the recently discovered interstellar object 3I/ATLAS is roughly 7 miles wide, making it the largest of its kind ever seen.

Ancient whale ‘graveyard’ discovered under melting Russian glacier
An Arctic expedition found a collection of ancient whale remains where a rapidly retreating glacier once lay.

Artist cancels major Smithsonian exhibition
Amy Sherald, who gained national fame for her official portrait of former first lady Michelle Obama in 2018, was told that the museum had “concerns” about one of her paintings.

New Jersey Little Leaguer cleared to play again
The 12-year-old baseball player faced suspension for what he did last week after hitting a game-winning home run.

Halloween is going to be pricier this year
High cocoa costs are prompting a major confectionery company to hike prices for chocolate candy.

David Beckham documents hilarious haircut mishap
“What have you done?” Victoria Beckham, the soccer star’s wife, asked when she saw it

RIP: Legendary jazz musician Chuck Mangione dies
The noted flugelhorn player, trumpeter and composer became known for his signature tune “Feels So Good,” which spent 25 weeks on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, peaking at #4 in 1978. Throughout his six-decade career in music, Mangione received 14 Grammy nominations and won the award twice. He also made recurring appearances on the Fox animated series “King of the Hill,” where he played a tongue-in-cheek version of himself.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dover, UK
Holidaymakers and lorry drivers come to a standstill as traffic builds at the border
Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA

San Diego, US
A man wades past kelp as he goes for a swim in the Pacific Ocean at La Jolla Shores in California
Photograph: Gregory Bull/AP

​​​​​​​Neuf-Brisach, France
An aerial view of an octagonal fortress that forms one of the most extraordinary cities in the world. Constructed in the 17th-century by Sébastien Le Prestre de Vauban, a military architect serving King Louis XIV, the city in Alsace features evenly spaced bastions, perpendicular streets and star-shaped fortifications
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 25^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44901.92	+208.01
		+0.47%
S&P 500	6388.64	+25.29
		+0.40%
NASDAQ	21108.32	+50.36
		+0.24%
TSX	27494.35	+122.09
		+0.45%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41456.23	-370.11
		-0.88%
HANG SENG	25388.35	-278.83
		-1.09%
SENSEX	81463.09	-721.08
		-0.88%
FTSE 100*	9120.31	-18.06
		-0.20%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.526	3.548
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.840	3.857
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3878	4.3957
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9296	4.9347

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7298	0.7328
US $	1.3702	1.3646

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6095	0.6213
US $	1.1746	0.8513

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3365.85	3413.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	66.11	67.23

Market Commentary:
And thus, without a wing, or service of a keel. –Emily Dickinson, 1830-1886.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 27,494.35 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.9% on July 17 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.5%.
Tfi International Inc. had the largest increase, rising 5.5%.
Today, 111 of 212 shares rose, while 97 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.4%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.7%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.9% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.11% compared with 6.24% in the previous session and the average of 6.12% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 53.2918| 2.0| 9/1
Financials | 48.3263| 0.5| 19/6
Industrials | 23.9996| 0.7| 24/5
Materials | 11.4083| 0.3| 21/26
Real Estate | 3.4190| 0.7| 10/8
Consumer Discretionary | 1.1541| 0.1| 5/4
Utilities | 0.9006| 0.1| 5/8
Communication Services | -0.3184| 0.0| 3/2
Health Care | -0.4823| -0.7| 1/2
Consumer Staples | -2.0356| -0.2| 5/5
Energy | -17.5958| -0.4| 9/30
Shopify | 34.9200| 2.5| -38.4| 11.5
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 10.1500| 1.5| 7.0| 1.3
RBC | 8.9010| 0.5| 24.9| 4.4
Couche-Tard | -2.9900| -0.7| -34.6| -6.8
Enbridge | -5.4880| -0.6| 37.0| 1.1
Teck Resources | -8.3630| -5.7| 107.6| -22.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange raced to fresh record high on Friday even as U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration has not been focused on reaching a trade deal with Canada, with a deadline for an agreement looming, while Rosenberg Research raised concern around overbought market sentiment.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 122.1 points to a record finish of 27,494.25 despite weaker commodity prices, usually a bearish note for the resources-heavy index.
Despite the gains, sectors were mixed.
The biggest gainer was Info Tech, up 1.8%.
The Battery Metals Index was down 1.7% and Base Metals down 1%.
Just a week out from an August 1 trade-agreement deadline, President Trump told reporters Friday morning “We don’t have a deal with Canada”.
In contrast, he was cited in a report from Canada’s CTV News saying he is likely to reach a deal with the European Union and that he had solidified the confines of an accord with China.
“Aug. 1 is going to come, and we will have most of our deals finished, if not all.  We haven’t really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where they’ll just pay tariffs. It’s not really a negotiation,” Trump said.
The CTV report noted Trump has promised the U.S. will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods crossing the border, and those fees could go even higher if Canada further retaliates.
However, it also noted, they’re limited to the minority of goods not covered under the two countries’ existing free trade deal, which Trump signed in his first term and vowed to renegotiate next year.
Canada is also bearing the weight of Trump’s tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles, and will be affected by copper duties that are also expected to kick in on Aug. 1, the CTV report added.
Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Market, in his weekly ‘Talking Points’ note said the 15% base tariff agreed with Japan “likely sets an important benchmark for other major trading partners, and drums home the point that meaningful tariffs are here to stay.”
Porter noted Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney more or less echoed that sentiment by cautioning any deal with the United States may well include some semi-permanent tariffs.
At the same time, Porter also noted, Carney warned the Aug.1 deadline may not hold, and that Canada would not be rushed into a bad deal, while Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc said “a lot of work” still needs to be done.
President Trump, Porter noted, showed just how much “work” by suggesting on Friday that, for Canada, it may just be a tariff, not a negotiation.
“While Canada faces the prospect of a 10 ppt hike in its tariff to 35%, that’s only on the narrow slice of non-USMCA compliant goods, so the bigger issue is the sectoral hits on autos and metals,” Porter said.
Elsewhere, Rosenberg Research in its latest Technical Analysis said a composite of four popular sentiment survey suggests market sentiment is “only now edging into overbought, excessive bullishness, territory”.
It cited the S&P 500 medium term Coppock Curve showing that sentiment momentum has broken out to levels not seen since early 2023.
According to the research, “this breakout implies that sentiment will move higher, and become more overbought, in the weeks immediately ahead”.
Rosenberg Research said if it does, but fails to challenge its 2024 highs, that could create a divergence relative to, at least, the S&P 500’s post-April uptrend and perhaps its longer-term trend. “In turn,” it added, “such divergence could be a factor, along with momentum and seasonality, that adversely affects price.”
Of commodities, gold futures fell for a third day, continuing a retreat from Tuesday’s record high as the dollar strengthens and traders take profits.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $38.20 to US$3,392.90 per ounce.
Tuesday, the metal posted a record high of US$3,501.80.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell Friday, giving up early gains that came on optimism U.S. tariff battles are calming, as reports said the Trump Administration will allow higher exports from Venezuela into an already over-supplied market.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed down $0.87 to settle at US$65.16 per barrel.
September Brent oil was last seen down $0.78 to US$68.40.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street ended the week on a positive note, with stocks hitting fresh all-time highs amid solid earnings and hopes for US trade deals.
After an uneventful meeting between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell, the Treasury market barely budged.
The dollar climbed.
In the run-up to the busiest week for corporate results, the S&P 500 rose for a fifth straight day, approaching 6,400.
While the rally has stoked concerns about inflated prices amid a rush to the riskiest corners and a revival of the meme-stock mania, many traders find it hard to bet against the trend.
A closely watched gauge of equity volatility – the VIX – closed below 15.
“If you are a structurally bearish investor, the recent few weeks must have felt like a century,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
“Not only are most equity indices advancing in what seems like an endless rally, but their valuations now globally surpass those at the start of the year.”
Progress in trade deals, positive economic data and corporate resilience have offset worries that stocks are overheating.
More than 80% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded profit estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s on track for the highest share of beats since 2021.
“The pace of earnings so far this month has been positive, economic data has been hanging in there, and we’re even starting to get some sense of clarity on tariffs,” said Bespoke Investment Group. “You can’t fault investors for being optimistic.”
Next week will also bring the latest jobs report, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and a deadline for US trade deals.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she will travel to Scotland this weekend to meet with Trump, as the two sides aim to conclude a trade deal ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline.
“The market continues its steady climb as many key investor concerns have failed to materialize,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“While institutional investors who were short on an absolute or relative basis have largely capitulated, positioning still shows little sign of excess.”
This suggests that the market momentum has room to build if macro conditions improve or even stabilize, Hackett noted.
“It’s been a very, very active year for retail and just in the past month, I’d say, has been the craziest month that we’ve seen, so it is the return of meme stock rallying, sharp increases in really small companies picked up by Reddit channels and things like that,” said Sam Nofzinger, Public’s general manager of brokerage.
Meantime, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk said its clients are growing “more comfortable” betting against shares of unprofitable technology companies, following a resurgence of meme-stock mania that has sparked wild rallies in a cohort of smaller names.
“With the market pushing to new highs and volatility falling to its lowest levels since February, two of the major challenges facing investors are complacency and the urge to chase the market,” said Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
The risk of a bubble in stock markets is rising as monetary policy loosens alongside an easing in financial regulation, says Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
From a technical standpoint, Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler keeps his bullish view, citing factors such as improving market breadth and many of the popular averages reaching new highs.
Monday kicks off the earnings season’s busiest week, with over 40% of S&P 500 companies reporting results.
Among the highlights will be several mega caps including Apple Inc. Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc.
“We are seeing some divergence in earnings, but for the most part companies are beating expectations and keeping the stock rally going,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“As long as trade policy and tariff headwinds are minor, the market can keep moving higher.”
The world’s investors are enjoying a confidence boost after months of uncertainty as Trump finally started signing trade deals.
Earlier this year, rapidly-shifting tariff policies sent global markets spiraling.
But risk assets have rebounded as investors saw signs of progress in negotiations.
“We’ve already seen a deal with Japan. A deal with the EU is necessary for the equity rally to continue, in our view, but would not be surprised,” said Paul Christopher at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.  “The only surprise would be no deal by Aug. 1.”
To Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management, trade negotiations will ultimately lead to moderate policy.
“We would expect a tariff-led economic slowdown to be mild and short-lived, rather than recessionary,” he said.
Trump also noted he would never back a weak dollar while also touting the economic benefits a low currency would bring, particularly for the country’s manufacturing sector.
While the greenback wrapped out its worst week in July, it’s set for its best month in 2025.
The Fed released a statement Friday thanking Trump and Republican lawmakers for visiting the central bank’s renovation project on Thursday.
During his visit, Trump offered little criticism of the project but urged Fed Chair Powell several times to lower interest rates.
Trump says he had a good meeting with Powell, leading the US president to believe the Fed might cut borrowing costs.
At Pepperstone, Quasar Elizundia says policymakers are expected to hold steady while signaling sensitivity to global trade conditions and softening investment trends.
“The case for leaving policy on hold has been made by several Fed speakers: inflation remains above target, inflation risks still pervade, and the labor market is near full employment,” said Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The Fed “should cut rates next week, but we don’t think it will,” said FHN Financial’s Chris Low and his colleagues.
“Instead, watch for Chair Powell to use the press conference to prep markets for a cut in September.”
“While Chair Powell will probably keep his options open for September, we think he will emphasize that recent US inflation and employment data make a case for leaving rates unchanged,” said James Egelhof and Guneet Dhingra at BNP Paribas.
“As we have since December 2024, we expect the policy hold to run past year end.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Intel Corp. sank as Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan sparked concerns that he was more focused on cost cutting than restoring the chipmaker’s technological edge.
* Microsoft Corp. is investigating whether a leak from its early alert system for cybersecurity companies allowed Chinese hackers to exploit flaws in its SharePoint service before they were patched, according to people familiar with the matter.
* American Airlines Group Inc. finally has taken possession of its first long-range Airbus SE A321XLR aircraft, but the plane will remain in Europe because of a supply chain issue that’s caused a shortage of seats.
* Paramount Global’s merger with Skydance Media was approved by the US Federal Communications Commission.
* Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc. agreed to acquire Synovus Financial Corp. in an all-stock transaction valued at $8.6 billion, combining two sizable players in the US Southeastern market ahead of a potential wave of banking M&A.
* Charter Communications Inc. reported it lost more internet customers than expected during the second quarter amid increased pressure from mobile companies’ 5G and fiber home internet offerings.
* Fuzzy Ugg boots and chunky Hoka running shoes saw big sales gains last quarter, bolstering financial results for parent company Deckers Outdoor Corp.
* Centene Corp. issued fresh annual guidance and laid out a plan to address problems in its Affordable Care Act business, offering investors a ray of hope in a year when insurers across the industry have struggled to cope with rising costs and changing government policies.
* Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. shares plunged after European regulators rejected its gene therapy Elevidys, intensifying scrutiny on the drugmaker after it was pressured to halt shipments of its treatment in the US.
* Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.’s chief medical officer is stepping down from his role after six years at the company, a surprise moves as the drugmaker races to find its next hit to reverse its declining fortunes.
* Eli Lilly & Co. won the backing of European Union regulators for its Alzheimer’s disease drug Kisunla in a specific group of patients, potentially paving the way for it to become the second drug in the region to slow the most common cause of dementia in the elderly.
* Newmont Corp. has made progress getting its costs under control, helping the world’s top gold miner beat expectations on earnings at a time when a rally for the precious metal is underpinning the industry.
* Phillips 66 is maximizing diesel production to take advantage of strong demand and would consider investing in projects that give its refineries greater flexibility to tweak fuel output to match changing consumption patterns.
* Lyft Inc. is partnering with Benteler Group, an Austria-based manufacturer, to deploy autonomous shuttles in the US in late 2026, trying to catch up with rival Uber Technologies Inc. in offering driverless rides.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1743
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3436
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 147.63 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $116,755.58
* Ether fell 2.5% to $3,644.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.38%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $65.05 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,337.87 an ounce

–With assistance from Vildana Hajric.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Action may not always bring happiness; but there is no happiness without action. -Benjamin Disraeli, 1804-1881.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  The astronomical new moon for July 2025 occurs today, Thursday, July 24, when the Moon reaches conjunction with the Sun—meaning it’s completely invisible from Earth.
Precise timings include:

• July 24, 2025 at 2:11 p.m. PT (Pacific Time)—approximately the same moment across the Northern Hemisphere Calendar 12+5Wikipedia+5Astronomy Magazine+5.

This moment marks the official start of the lunar cycle. In the Northern Hemisphere, it appears as the Moon is entirely dark and unseen in the sky.

Today is Pioneer Day – Mormons enter Salt Lake City, July 24, 1847.

July 24, 1847: American inventor Richard March Hoe patents the rotary printing press, revolutionizing mass printing.
July 24, 1959: During a visit to the Soviet Union, Vice President Richard M. Nixon and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev compared the merits of capitalism and communism in the “kitchen debate,” so-named because it took place at a model kitchen at a U.S. exhibition.  Go to article.

Simon Bolivar, S. American liberator, b. 1783.
Alexandre Dumas, writer, b. 1802.
Amelia Earhart, aviatrix, b. 1898.
Zelda Fitzgerald, writer, b. 1900.
Jennifer Lopez, actress, b. 1970

Neanderthal genes may explain disorder where brain bulges out of the skull
Neanderthal genes may explain why some people have Chiari malformation type I, a condition in which the brain bulges out of the back of the skull. Read More.

Iconic ‘Apollo Earthrise’ crater just helped a spaceship get better at hunting aliens
A large lunar crater featured in the iconic ‘Earthrise’ photo has just helped the European JUICE spacecraft hone its alien-hunting instruments during a once-in-a-lifetime flyby. Read More.

Best-ever map of the human genome sheds light on ‘jumping genes,’ ‘junk DNA’ and more
In a pair of papers, scientists greatly expanded our catalog of known genomic variation among humans. Read More.

Watch this robot ‘cannibal’ grow bigger and stronger by consuming smaller robots
Scientists explore the concept of “robot metabolism” with a weird machine that can integrate material from other robots so it can become more capable and overcome physical challenges. Read More.

Students build new ‘hybrid drone’ — watch it fly in the air and then seamlessly dive underwater
A 3D-printed hybrid drone can quickly transition between air and water thanks to variable pitch propellers. Watch a video of the drone in action. Read More.

Venus Williams is engaged
The tennis superstar revealed the big news after becoming the second-oldest woman to win a tour-level singles match.

Pete Davidson expecting first child with partner
And the comedian is overjoyed to be entering his dad era.

What is Shohei Ohtani’s next big hit? 
Let’s just say it has to do with the Los Angeles Dodgers player’s dog.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Konya, Turkey
The harvest season ends in the circular wheat fields of Altınova and Gözlü in the Kadınhanı district
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Horsey Gap, UK
People watch a grey seal colony on the beach in Norfolk
Photograph: Matthew Chattle/Shutterstock

Almere, Netherlands
A bus drives through a solar farm. The farm produces enough electricity to supply 80,000 households
Photograph: Shutterstock
Market Closes for July 24^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44693.91	-316.38
		-0.70%
S&P 500	6363.35	+4.44
		+0.07%
NASDAQ	21057.96	+37.94
		+0.18%
TSX	27372.26	-44.15
		-0.16%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41826.34	+655.02
		+1.59%
HANG SENG	25667.18	+129.11
		+0.51%
SENSEX	82184.17	-542.47
		-0.66%
FTSE 100*	9138.37	+76.88
		+0.85%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.548	3.555
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.857	3.865
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3957	4.3818
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9347	4.9378

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7328	0.7349
US $	1.3646	1.3607

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6033	0.6237
US $	1.1750	0.8510

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3413.55	3409.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.23	66.36

Market Commentary:
You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward, –Steve Jobs, 1955-2011.

On this day in 1987, the corporate assets of ZZZZ Best were sold at bankruptcy auction. The carpet-cleaning company run by 21-year-old whiz kid Barry Minkow had a stock-market value of roughly $300 million months earlier—but virtually no customers, revenues or assets. Minkow had set up an elaborate system of phantom offices and phony account records.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 27,372.26 in Toronto. The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
Teck Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 8.7%.
Orla Mining Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 14.4%.
Today, 120 of 213 shares fell, while 86 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.9%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.4% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.44t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.24% compared with 6.23% in the previous session and the average of 6.12% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -46.9142| -1.3| 3/44
Financials | -24.0829| -0.3| 13/12
Consumer Discretionary | -7.3680| -0.8| 2/7
Utilities | -0.9861| -0.1| 5/9
Information Technology | -0.4268| 0.0| 5/4
Health Care | 0.3582| 0.5| 2/1
Communication Services | 0.5190| 0.1| 3/2
Consumer Staples | 0.5228| 0.1| 5/5
Industrials | 2.6154| 0.1| 12/17
Real Estate | 5.1989| 1.1| 4/13
Energy | 26.4436| 0.6| 32/6
Teck Resources | -14.0400| -8.7| 116.2| -17.7
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -8.1920| -1.2| 46.2| -0.2
Couche-Tard | -7.5520| -1.8| -8.1| -6.1
FirstService | 6.3120| 8.9| 186.8| 1.6
Canadian Natural Resources | 6.7340| 1.1| -57.3| -2.8
Waste Connections | 11.6500| 2.6| 51.1| 4.2
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock closed lower Thursday, falling off a day-prior record close, as market watchers’ debate whether or not a rate cut is possible over the second half of 2025, even if the window for one may be tight.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell a modest 44.15 points to 27,372.26.
Among sectors, most were lower, but only Base Metals fell by more than 1%, dropping1.7%.
Energy was the biggest gainer, rising 0.95%.
In the rates debate, RBC noted its central scenario since mid-June is that the Bank of Canada cutting cycle is over.
“Yes,” it said, “there are risks of further cuts if the macro landscape turns out worse than we expect, but status quo seems insufficient to compel the BoC to act.”
According to RBC, the market is “warming up to our view, whereas consensus has pushed out expected cuts to later in the year”.
Still, RBC did say the BoC should, at its July 30 meeting, keep the door open to further easing contingent on slower growth and lower inflation.
“There is no incentive to remove that optionality amid elevated uncertainty around trade wars.
But the window for cuts is closing fast as monetary policy will probably pass the baton to fiscal after the federal budget (expected in October)
Taylor Schleich, National Bank Director, Economics and Strategy, also said the BoC will leave the overnight target unchanged at 2.75%, the middle of its estimated neutral range, for a third straight meeting.
Unlike the prior two decisions, there’s little doubt about this one, as OIS markets discount sub-10% easing odds, he added.
“Those who had earlier been expecting a cut in July, us included, were dealt a blow this month when hiring was reported to have surged in June and underlying inflation failed to moderate.
The closely watched Business Outlook Survey was hardly upbeat but still soft sentiment is insufficient to compensate for firm core inflation and strong job growth.
Inflation expectations improved but remain a bit high, Schleich said.
In citing growing momentum around the idea that the rate easing cycle is over, Schleich said National Bank disagrees and doesn’t expect the bank’s Governing Council to validate this more hawkish view.
“Instead,” he added, “they’re likely to keep guidance unchanged, reiterating that they’re proceeding carefully and monitoring the same four indicators: export demand; tariff impacts on investment, employment and spending; inflation; and inflation expectations.”
Assuming the BoC’s data dependent stance is reaffirmed, National Bank doesn’t expect a material rate reaction post-decision.
“Markets will likely continue pricing less than one cut this year, for now,” he said.
Schleich noted the BoC’s rates decision will bring with it a new Monetary Policy Report and it hopes this will contain a central economic projection, rather two “illustrative scenarios” as presented in April.
“Policymakers have said we’re closer to the less disruptive scenario which could mean the growth forecasts published are stronger than our own.”
Of commodities today, gold prices weakened late afternoon as the dollar rose after the United States reported a drop in initial jobless claims and investors moved to risk assets after the Trump Administration reached a trade deal with Japan.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $23.90 to US$3,431.20 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher for the first time in five sessions as a day-prior report showed a steeper than expected drop in U.S inventories, though demand concerns continue amid rising supply.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $0.78 to settle at US$66.03 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen up $0.40 to US$68.91.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks closed at all-time highs as Alphabet Inc.’s results showed solid demand for artificial intelligence, bolstering confidence in the technology that has powered the bull market.
Signs of jobs strength ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve decision lifted Treasury yields.
Following a 28% surge from its April lows, the S&P 500 eked out a gain while notching its 10th record in 19 trading days.
Google’s parent AI optimism fueled a rally in companies like Nvidia Corp., which hit a fresh record.
Tesla Inc. sank 8.2% as Elon Musk warned of difficult times after one of the carmaker’s worst stretches since it started producing electric sedans over a dozen years ago.
The S&P 500’s record-setting spree may be stoking concerns about inflated share prices and a revival of meme-stock froth, but JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk isn’t concerned.
Rather, it expects the rally in US equities to keep going.
“While bullishness is not yet consensus, client conversations reveal that even those that skewed bearish are throwing in the towel,” the bank’s head of global market intelligence Andrew Tyler said Thursday in a note ahead of the market open.
Bonds dropped for a second day, with 10-year yields rising three basis points to 4.41%.
Traders slightly pared bets on Fed cuts, projecting less than two reductions this year.
The dollar edged up.
As European policymakers tempered expectations of policy easing, German bunds slid.
US jobless claims fell for a sixth straight week – the longest stretch of declines since 2022.
The characterization of the labor market will be a key feature of next week’s Fed meeting.
“There are still few signs of major cracks in the labor market,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“And if that picture remains intact, the Fed has one less reason to cut interest rates.”
Trading desks at firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citadel Securities are telling clients to buy cheap hedges against potential losses in US stocks as a slew of risks loom over the market’s record advance.
US margin debt, a measure showing how much investors are borrowing to buy stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, is starting to run too hot — a potentially concerning sign for the credit market, according to credit strategists at Deutsche Bank AG.
The market euphoria may continue if there are unexpected tariff reductions or a more dovish stance by the Fed than investors anticipate, the strategists said.
The world’s investors are enjoying a confidence boost after months of uncertainty as President Donald Trump finally starts signing trade deals.
Earlier this year, rapidly shifting tariff policies sent global markets spiraling.
But risk assets have rebounded as investors saw signs of progress in negotiations, and the greenback has steadied.
Trump suggested he would not go below 15% as he sets reciprocal tariff rates ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline.
US stocks face near-term risk as the market is too complacent about tariffs and the related backlash, according to BNP Paribas Asset Management strategist Chi Lo.
On the trade front, Trump suggested he would not go below 15% as he sets so-called reciprocal tariff rates ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline, an indication that the floor for the increased levies was rising.
While some investors are concerned about “frothiness,” Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler says that, from a technical point of view, that this is not the case when looking “down-cap” from the heavy-weights in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices.
“We believe that this bull market is broadening out in terms of participation,” he said.
The NYSE advance-decline line, which tracks the number of securities rising minus the number falling on the exchange each day, this week hit fresh highs.

Corporate Highlights:
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google inked a deal worth more than $1 billion to provide cloud-computing services to software firm ServiceNow Inc., a win for Google Cloud’s efforts to get major enterprises onto its platform.
* International Business Machines Corp. reported weaker-than- expected sales in its closely watched software segment, disappointing investors who have grown increasingly optimistic about the business.
* Microsoft Corp. said a Chinese hacking group is exploiting security vulnerabilities in the company’s SharePoint servers to deploy ransomware, following a cyberattack discovered last week that has affected hundreds of entities around the world.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. is responding to criminal and civil requests from the US Department of Justice about its Medicare practices, the company said, confirming reports of probes that have added to mounting challenges for the largest US health insurer.
* Union Pacific Corp., North America’s largest railroad, is in advanced discussions with Norfolk Southern Corp. about a potential tie-up in what would be the industry’s largest deal ever.
* American Airlines Group Inc. scaled back its earnings outlook amid deep fare discounts offered to woo reluctant travelers back on flights during a slump in consumer demand.
* Southwest Airlines Co. expects economic turmoil to erase as much as $1 billion of its annual pre-tax profit this year, prompting the US airline to offer shareholders a much-reduced outlook for 2025.
* Union Pacific Corp., North America’s largest railroad, is in advanced discussions with Norfolk Southern Corp. about a potential tie-up in what would be the industry’s largest deal ever.
* The Food and Drug Administration won’t sign off on Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. bringing its controversial gene therapy back to the market until the company can persuade US regulators that it won’t cause more deaths, according to an official familiar with the situation.
* Dow Inc. slumped after the chemical company reported its first quarterly loss in five years as trade and tariff uncertainties weighed on volumes.
* T-Mobile US Inc., the nation’s second-largest wireless provider, reported more new subscribers than analysts were expecting in the second quarter, overcoming a sluggish start to the year.
* Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. cut its annual outlook for the second time this year, suggesting that honey chicken and burrito giveaways haven’t been enough to offset a traffic slump that the company attributed to economic anxiety.
* Blackstone Inc. reported a 25% jump in distributable earnings for the second quarter, buoyed by profits from its retail and evergreen funds.
* ServiceNow Inc. gave a strong outlook for revenue growth in the third quarter and touted customer adoption of its artificial intelligence software tools.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1759
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3508
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 146.93 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $119,052.72
* Ether rose 4.7% to $3,737.51
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.62%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $66.20 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,370.69 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The best revenge is massive success. –Frank Sinatra, 1915-1998.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On July 23, 1914, Austria-Hungary issued an ultimatum to Serbia following the killing of Archduke Francis Ferdinand by a Serb assassin; the dispute led to World War I.  Go to article.
July 23, 1962: Telestar relays the first live television signal between the US and Europe, transforming global communications.
July 23, 1996, stock guru Elaine Garzarelli told her clients to get out of the market, forecasting a 15% to 25% drop. The warning sparked a one-day selloff but she proved absurdly off the mark: The Dow never again came within 1000 points of her target.

Return of wolves to Yellowstone has led to a surge in aspen trees unseen for 80 years
Gray wolves were reintroduced in Yellowstone National Park in 1995 to help control the numbers of elk that were eating young trees, and it is finally paying off for quaking aspen.

Pristine Etruscan tomb discovered in Italy contains more than 100 untouched artifacts
Archaeologists in Italy have discovered a rare 2,600-year-old Etruscan tomb that somehow escaped looters over the centuries. Read More.

See up to 25 ‘shooting stars’ an hour as Southern Delta Aquariid and Alpha Capricornid meteor showers peak
Two minor meteor showers — the Southern Delta Aquariids and Alpha Capricornids — peak overnight on July 29-30, making it a great night for stargazing. Read More.

Students build new ‘hybrid drone’ — watch it fly in the air and then seamlessly dive underwater
A 3D-printed hybrid drone can quickly transition between air and water thanks to variable pitch propellers. Watch a video of the drone in action.

Bite marks reveal giant terror birds were potentially prey for another apex predator — humongous caiman
Researchers have found evidence of a titanic tussle between a terror bird and a large caiman in Colombia’s ancient La Venta wetlands.

Pepsi bets on a popular health trend
The beverage company hopes its new soda will appeal to consumers who buy sparkling waters and hydration drinks.

Jamie Lee Curtis, Lindsay Lohan reunite for ‘Freaky Friday’ sequel
The stars reveal why fans have had to wait for more than 20 years for another movie

Musicians pay tribute to rock legend Ozzy Osbourne
The Black Sabbath frontman, who died on Tuesday at 76, was remembered as a “pioneer” and “dear friend.”

NASA releases new images of the sun’s atmosphere 
In case you’ve always wanted to take a closer look at our host star without going blind.

Archaeologists have discovered the remains of a medieval knight buried under a shuttered ice cream parlor in Poland. The ornate tombstone and bones of an adult male were remarkably well-preserved and date back to the 13th or 14th century.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Butuo County, China
Women dressed in traditional costumes of the Yi ethnic group parade at the opening ceremony of a torch festival
Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock

Mexico City, Mexico
A visitor explores the Frida Kahlo: The Life of an Icon immersive biography exhibition at Espacio Alter
Photograph: Luis Barron/Eyepix Group/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Zhenyuan, China
Dragon boat teams from across China compete in a two-day race on the Wuyang River
Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock
Market Closes for July 23^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45010.29	+507.85
		+1.14%
S&P 500	6358.91	+49.29
		+0.78%
NASDAQ	21020.02	+127.33
		+0.61%
TSX	27416.41	+51.98
		+0.19%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41171.32	+1396.40
		+3.51%
HANG SENG	25538.07	+408.04
		+1.62%
SENSEX	82726.64	+539.83
		+0.66%
FTSE 100*	9061.49	+37.68
		+0.42%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.555	3.501
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.865	3.810
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3818	4.3440
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9378	4.9173

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7349	0.7350
US $	1.3607	1.3605

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6015	0.6244
US $	1.1771	0.8495

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3409.85	3386.20
Oil
WTI Crude Future	66.36	66.21

Market Commentary:
However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results. –Winston Churchill, 1874-1965.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.2%, or 51.98 to 27,416.41 in Toronto.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.9%. Celestica Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.5%.
Today, 123 of 213 shares rose, while 86 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.1%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.6% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1% in the past 5 days and rose 3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.23% compared with 6.27% in the previous session and the average of 6.12% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 54.5110| 0.6| 18/7
Energy | 35.7520| 0.8| 35/5
Consumer Discretionary | 6.5236| 0.7| 7/2
Communication Services | 2.8994| 0.5| 4/1
Utilities | 2.4543| 0.2| 6/8
Health Care | 0.5346| 0.8| 2/1
Real Estate | -0.4050| -0.1| 9/9
Information Technology | -3.3943| -0.1| 7/2
Consumer Staples | -5.3976| -0.5| 1/9
Materials | -20.0958| -0.5| 17/31
Industrials | -21.3874| -0.6| 17/11
Brookfield Corp | 17.2400| 1.9| -29.8| 11.5
Celestica | 12.9600| 7.5| 53.2| 72.9
RBC | 11.9600| 0.7| 27.5| 5.3
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -9.1020| -1.3| 38.7| 1.0
Shopify | -20.3500| -1.4| -10.9| 8.5
Canadian National | -21.5700| -4.1| 129.8| -10.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A record-breaking run in stocks gained fuel as the US reached a trade agreement with Japan while speculation grew about a similar deal with the European Union.
Treasuries halted a five-day rally and the dollar fell as demand for haven assets waned.
The S&P 500 hit all-time highs on news reports the EU and the US are progressing toward an agreement that would set a 15% tariff for most products.
In late hours, Alphabet Inc. reported better-than-expected revenue, but said capital expenditures will be higher than previously forecast.Tesla Inc.’s earnings fell short of Wall Street’s estimates.
Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.39%.
Bonds remained lower even after a strong $13 billion sale of 20- year securities that tested the appetite for long-maturity debt.
Japan’s 40-year government bond auction saw its weakest demand since 2011.
The EU and the US have accelerated talks over the past weeks to avoid a full-blown trade war.
Bloomberg News reported that European officials are optimistic that a deal can be reached, but negotiations remain fluid.
“Momentum is building with trade deals a week ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“The adage ‘don’t short a dull tape’ seems apropos, given the steady move higher for equities with low volatility.”
President Donald Trump’s top trade negotiators hailed their approach toward addressing grievances with Japan as a possible incentive for the EU.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Japan’s pledge of billions in US investments “could be” a model for the EU.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stopped short of saying the bloc can win the same sort of deal.
“With the Aug. 1 deadline looming, investors have been encouraged by the recent trade-deal announcements,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
“The progress on the trade war will provide clarity and help the market move forward to incorporate the new global trade environment.”
At Interactive Brokers, Jose Torres says this week’s news of cemented trade agreements is supporting the “animal spirits” we’re seeing in equity markets.
“The deals are bolstering economic growth projections and offering confidence to investors that the path for corporate earnings expansion remains clear and wide,” he said.
Meanwhile, hesitation regarding income prospects has led to participants doubting whether firms can deliver strong top and bottom lines while additionally providing robust outlooks,according to Torres.
“Incoming quarterly performance reports will probably be well received by Wall Street as economic activity has been buoyant in the second quarter while the skies ahead are clearing up from here,” he concluded.
Signs of stock-market complacency are emerging as the searing equity rally coincides with an acceleration in earnings downgrades, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. quantitative strategists led by Khuram Chaudhry.
“There appears to be an environment of bullish sentiment, speculation, and a growing air of complacency,” they wrote.
“Either sell-side analysts are about to start a new round of upward revisions or the market is at risk of suffering a period of increased volatility and draw-downs. Something has to give!”
US stocks will shrug off tariff risks to get a boost from the second-quarter earnings season, the latest Markets Pulse survey showed.
Equities will beat Treasuries and deliver better volatility-adjusted returns as the reporting season ramps up in the coming weeks, according to nearly two-thirds of the 102 participants in a poll conducted July 10-17.
The positive outlook for stocks continues to be underpinned by technology, and the sector is poised to perform strongest this earnings season, respondents noted.
“The trend remains positive,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates. “Earnings continue to deliver better than average beats.”
While valuations are steep, the prospects of supporting lower interest rates are good in the medium term, and the expectations of further tariff agreements will provide short- term catalysts, he said.
“Focus will stay on trade and earnings,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “On trade, the Japan deal will raise hopes a similar deal with the EU can be stuck before next Friday.”
Bond traders are boosting bets that the Federal Reserve will slash rates more aggressively next year, pricing about 75 basis points of cuts. That compares to 25 basis points projected in April.
Trump said the Fed board “should act” on lowering rates, “but they don’t have the courage to do so.”
Meantime, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there’s “no rush” to identify a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Corporate Highlights:
* International Business Machines Corp. reported weaker-than- expected sales in its closely watched software segment, disappointing investors who have grown increasingly optimistic about the business.
* T-Mobile US Inc., the nation’s second-largest wireless provider, reported more new subscribers than analysts were expecting in the second quarter, overcoming a sluggish start to the year.
* Mattel Inc. introduced a new forecast for 2025 sales and profit — two months after pulling its previous outlook over the uncertainty tied to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
* ServiceNow Inc. gave a strong outlook for revenue growth and touted customer adoption of its artificial intelligence software tools.
* Microsoft Corp. stands to gain from new White House AI guidelines that call on the US Federal Trade Commission to show more restraint in probes involving artificial intelligence and stand down on cases that put “AI innovation” at risk.
* Texas Instruments Inc., a key chipmaker for producers of cars and factory equipment, sank after stoking fears that a tariff- fueled surge in demand will be short-lived.
* AT&T Inc. reported second-quarter results that mostly exceeded Wall Street estimates, including faster-than-expected growth in wireless phone subscribers after offering perks and incentives to attract customers from rivals.
* Fiserv Inc.’s stock plunged after the financial-technology company reported lackluster growth in its merchant business.
* GE Vernova Inc. has increased its sales of transformers and other electrical equipment to big tech firms building large data centers.
* Infosys Ltd. raised the lower end of its sales forecast for the year, signaling it had a little more certainty of how clients are spending on business transformation projects.
* Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. lowered expectations for net income for 2025 as demand for US hotel bookings declined in the second quarter.
* Moody’s Corp., a bond grader and financial data provider, reported second-quarter revenue that beat analysts’ estimates, underscoring credit markets’ relatively quick recovery from April’s tariff-fueled tumult.
What Markets Live says:
“A slow start to US trade progress had greatly curbed investor expectations for timely deals.
Now that there’s been a steady stream of news flow to the contrary, investors have been more than happy to load up on equities.
Of course, the downside of headline driven trading is that stock sentiment is vulnerable to turning on a dime.
Unless there’s a big macro shock that recalibrates the outlook for risk assets in coming months, there’s enough animal spirits in markets to sustain the stock rally.”
– Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live US

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1774
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3582
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 146.53 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $118,437.51
* Ether fell 3.2% to $3,589.98
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.64%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.63%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $65.46 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.2% to $3,390.28 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If you are far from the enemy, make him believe you are near. -Sun Tzu, c.544 BC- c.496 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 22, 1298: English forces under Edward I defeat William Wallace at the Battle of Falkirk, quelling the Scottish uprising.
July 22, 1376: Pied Piper of Hamelin, Germany, leads the children away.
July 22, 1944, the Bretton Woods Agreement was signed in New Hampshire, pegging major foreign currencies to the U.S. dollar, fixing the gold price at $35 per ounce, and laying the groundwork for the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
July 22, 2004: The Sept. 11 commission issued a report saying America’s leaders failed to grasp the gravity of terrorist threats before the 9/11 attacks.  Go to article.

Edward Hopper, artist, b.1882.
Karl Menninger, psychiatrist, b. 1893.
Alexander Calder, sculptor, b. 1898.
Tom Robbins, writer, b. 1936.

Hang on: Earth is spinning faster today. OK, so you won’t feel the 1.38-millisecond difference, but the reason still makes for an intriguing read for science nerds. The spin will be even faster in two weeks.

China launches world’s first robot that can run by itself 24/7 — watch it change its own batteries in unsettling new footage
The Walker S2 humanoid robot, which can change its own battery when it’s running low on power, could potentially be left to run on its own forever. Read More.

2,200-year-old Celtic settlement discovered in Czech Republic — and it’s awash in gold and silver coins
A 2,200-year-old Celtic settlement containing coins and jewelry has been discovered in the Czech Republic. Read More.

Ötzi the Iceman and his neighbors had totally different ancestries, ancient DNA study finds
A study of prehistoric skeletons from the Italian Alps shows that society may have been organized around fathers and that Ötzi the Iceman had a unique family lineage. Read More.

Shark Week team discovers unusual ‘black makos’ off California coast
Weird makos filmed off the California coast in a new Shark Week show raise questions about what these sharks actually are. Read More.

Springsteen makes appearance at Zach Bryan concert
The Boss surprised the audience at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, last weekend and performed two songs.

Someone has eaten artist Maurizio Cattelan’s $6 million banana
Yes, again.

 “The fact that CBS didn’t try to save their No. 1 rated late-night franchise that’s been on the air for over three decades is part of what’s making everybody wonder … was this purely financial or maybe the path of least resistance for your $8 billion merger?”  — Jon Stewart, host of “The Daily Show,” on the cancellation of “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert.”

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Uyuni, Bolivia
Tourists watch the sunset at the Uyuni salt flat, which has an area of more than 10,000 sq km and is the biggest such landscape in the world
Photograph: Esteban Biba/EPA

Villars-sur-Ollon, Switzerland
A giant biodegradable land art painting, Vers l’Horizon by the French-Swiss artist Saype, is seen on the ridges of the Grand Chamossaire mountain, above the alpine resort of Villars-sur-Ollon
Photograph: Jean-Christophe Bott/AP

Long summer days on Hampstead Heath in London
Photograph: Sarah M Lee/The Guardian
Market Closes for July 22^nd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44502.44	+179.37
		+0.40%
S&P 500	6309.62	+4.02
		+0.06%
NASDAQ	20892.69	-81.48
		-0.39%
TSX	27364.43	+47.43
		+0.17%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39774.92	-44.19
		-0.11%
HANG SENG	25130.03	+135.89
		+0.54%
SENSEX	82186.81	-13.53
		-0.02%
FTSE 100*	9023.81	+10.82
		+0.12%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.501	3.518
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.810	3.829
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3440	4.3777
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9173	4.9440

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7350	0.7309
US $	1.3605	1.3681

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5984	0.6256
US $	1.1750	0.8510

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3386.20	3355.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	66.21	67.20

Market Commentary:
In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long run it acts like a weighing machine. –Benjamin Graham, 1894-1976.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.2%, or 47.43 to 27,364.43 in Toronto.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.2%.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 7.0%.
Today, 141 of 213 shares rose, while 69 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.9%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on July 21, 2025 and 26.3% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and rose 3.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.42t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 6.27% compared with 6.27% in the previous session and the average of 6.11% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 90.1062| 2.5| 46/1
Energy | 26.6542| 0.6| 27/12
Communication Services | 5.2470| 0.8| 3/2
Financials | 4.1459| 0.0| 15/10
Consumer Discretionary | 3.5688| 0.4| 7/2
Utilities | 3.1886| 0.3| 7/8
Real Estate | 0.8196| 0.2| 11/7
Health Care | -0.5746| -0.9| 1/2
Consumer Staples | -2.0461| -0.2| 5/5
Industrials | -6.6085| -0.2| 14/15
Information Technology | -77.0966| -2.8| 5/5
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 24.9700| 4.2| 36.3| 55.6
Wheaton Precious Metals | 16.1800| 4.1| 31.0| 60.9
Canadian Natural Resources | 8.9300| 1.5| -13.5| -4.4
Constellation Software | -9.1190| -1.4| 5.5| 9.1
RBC | -11.3700| -0.6| 149.7| 4.6
Shopify | -62.4900| -4.2| 6.2| 10.1
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange finished Tuesday’s session higher and near record close levels as UBS joined a growing list of firms this week that see the Bank of Canada getting back on the rate cuts path this year, although Rosenberg Research suggests Canada’s equity market doesn’t “screen favorably’ when it comes to the outlook.
The TSX closed up 47.43 points at 27,364,43, within 25 points of the July 17 record close of 27,386.93.
Among sectors, battery metals led advancers, up 2.3%, while base metals rose 2.05%, while energy lagged, falling 0.05%.
Of commodities, gold rose to a five-week high as it looks to challenge record levels on a weak dollar and falling treasury yields.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $37.40 to US$3,443.80 per ounce, the highest since the metal’s record high of US$3,452.80 set on June 13.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower for a third-straight session as supply is climbing while traders wait to see if U.S. President Donald Trump will follow through on his threat to impose tariffs on the country’s trading partners next month.
In its final day as the active contract, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery closed $0.99 to settle at US$66.21 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen down $0.77 to US$68.44.
On interest rates, UBS in a July 21 note said it expects Canada’s central bank to keep monetary policy on hold at its July 30 meeting, but added it sees some downside risk to its view of rates staying on hold through the rest of 2025.
“The economy has performed better than feared although trade policy uncertainty has still weighed on activity and business and consumer expectations.”
The UBS note was published following the release Monday by the BoC of a Business Outlook Survey and a Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations for the second quarter.
Rosenberg Research, for its part, published a note breaking down the global equity landscape, evaluating various country fundamentals and valuations, both nominal and adjusted for real interest rates.
According to it, international markets, namely Emerging Markets and parts of Europe, stand out for their more attractive risk/reward profiles.
“Diversifying abroad remains the prudent strategy at this time for global equity investors,” it added.
The research focused on valuations, especially benchmarked against current interest rates, and fundamentals to assess which countries and regions “screen favorably” when it comes to the outlook.
It cited a few notable findings in the results: Emerging Markets being the clear favorites — specifically, Poland and Asia-Pacific ex. Japan, which make up the top four countries in its list, Of the 21 countries on the list, Canada was ranked 18.
“Safe to say that diversifying abroad remains a prudent strategy – something we have been advocating for some time.
Despite U.S. assets receiving the bulk of investors’ attention, large pockets of international stocks serve up attractive fundamentals yet have been broadly ignored.
Emerging Asia and Poland top our stock screen presented above (Canada, Japan, Italy, and the Netherlands bring up the rear).
As such, investors who are sitting on years of outsized gains in the former would be best to crystalize some of those profits and increase ex. U.S. weights in the portfolio,” Rosenberg Research concluded.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders gearing up for the start of the high-stakes mega cap earnings season kept stocks at all- time highs, with investors also parsing the latest tariff developments.
Bond yields and the dollar fell.
While the S&P 500 barely budged, more than 400 of its shares rose.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” giants halted a nine-day advance, but Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. climbed before their results. D.R. Horton Inc. led a rally in homebuilders.
Kohl’s Corp. surged as much as 105% — before paring gains to 38% — in a move reminiscent of the meme era.
In late hours, Texas Instruments Inc. gave a disappointing forecast.
Big tech’s strength will be on full display over the next few weeks as the group begins unveiling quarterly earnings.
The lion’s share of S&P 500 earnings growth continues to come from beneficiaries of advancements in artificial intelligence.
The Magnificent Seven companies are expected to post a combined 14% rise in second-quarter profits, while earnings for the rest of the US equity benchmark are predicted to be relatively flat, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.
“Tech heavyweights remain critical to market health,” said Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments.
“We expect AI- driven firms to continue anchoring tech sector growth.
AI adoption at the corporate level is improving, but the application layer of this technology is only just being tested.”
On the trade front, President Donald Trump unveiled an agreement with the Philippines setting a 19% tariff on the country’s exports.
Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney sought to cool expectations about reaching a deal in the next 10 days but said he’s looking to stabilize the relationship with the US.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he will meet his Chinese counterparts in Stockholm next week for their third round of trade talks aimed at extending a tariff truce and widening the discussions.
Bessent told Fox Business he sees no reason for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to step down.
Meantime, Trump stressed his belief that the Fed’s benchmark rate should be 3 percentage points lower.
Bessent, in the same Oval Office event, said that “based on the way they cut rates last fall, they should be cutting rates now.”
“We expect market volatility to pick up in the lead-up to the August tariff deadline, with threats to Federal Reserve independence and geopolitical uncertainty lingering in the background,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Bank of America Corp. clients were net buyers of US equities in the week ended last Friday, with purchases most pronounced among individual investors, followed by hedge funds.
BofA clients funneled $1.8 billion into US stocks last week, with buying across all size segments, the team led by equity and quantitative strategist Jill Carey Hall wrote Tuesday in research note.
“Is this running of the bulls with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs sustainable?” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“The weight of the technical evidence suggests that breadth remains bullish, and we would welcome ‘healthy’ pullbacks of less than 5% to add to positions.”
What Bloomberg Strategists say… “An ugly start to US equity trading is far from across the board.
The frothier tech and growth stocks are leading declines, but value stocks and defensive sectors are up on the day still.
Coupled with the decline in bond yields, this looks like the market paring a little risk, perhaps ahead of Tesla and Alphabet earnings on Wednesday.” – Sebastian Boyd, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. 

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. accused Chinese state-sponsored hackers of using flaws in its SharePoint document management software in a hacking campaign that has targeted businesses and government agencies around the world.
* OpenAI and Oracle Corp. announced they will develop 4.5 gigawatts of additional US data center capacity in an expanded partnership, furthering a massive plan to power artificial intelligence workloads.
* ASM International NV’s second-quarter orders missed expectations, as some chipmakers’ struggles undermined demand for its semiconductor equipment.
* Hershey Co. is raising prices on its candy due to historically high cocoa costs.
* Lockheed Martin Corp. caught investors off guard with $1.6 billion in charges and a possible tax hit that sent its stock tumbling, the latest setback for the defense giant whose popular F-35 jet faces criticism over cost overruns and delays.
* Northrop Grumman Corp. raised its earnings guidance for the full year after getting a boost from its Sentinel ballistic missile and B-21 bomber programs.
* RTX Corp. lowered its full-year profit outlook as the company digests the impact of tariffs that have roiled the aerospace industry, even as strong demand boosts sales above Wall Street’s expectations.
* General Motors Co. earned $2.53 per share on an adjusted basis, above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of $2.33 but short of the $3.06 it made a year ago. GM’s profits also suffered from higher warranty costs and a buildup in inventory of electric vehicles.
* Coca-Cola Co. posted second-quarter sales growth that beat Wall Street expectations as consumers continue to pay higher prices for the company’s soft drinks.
* Philip Morris International Inc.’s shipments of its Zyn nicotine pouches accelerated by less than analysts had expected.
* Synovus Financial Corp., a regional bank in the southeastern US, is weighing options including a potential merger after drawing interest, people familiar with the matter said.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1751
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3532
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 146.57 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2% to $119,300.11
* Ether fell 2.3% to $3,670.08
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.59%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.57%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $66.21 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,431.59 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it is not the same river and he is not the same man. –Heraclitus, c.534 BCE- c.475 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

July 21, 1798: Napoleon’s forces defeat the Mamluks at the Battle of the Pyramids, bringing Cairo under French control.
July 21, 1861: Battle of Bull Run.
July 21,1933: with investors digesting President Roosevelt’s “New Deal” measures, the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered what was then its ninth-worst daily percentage loss, dropping 7.8% to close the day at a dismal 88.71.

Ernest Hemingway, writer, b. 1899.
Marshall McLuhan, writer, b. 1911.
Isaac Stern, musician, b. 1920.
Cat Stevens, musician, b. 1948.
Robin Williams, comic/actor, b.1952.

‘Superman’ continues to soar at the box office
After years of Marvel movies, audiences are up for a little DC action with the Man of Steel.

Medieval scribe’s slip-up triggers centuries of confusion
Researchers have finally decoded an error in the 12th-century epic, “The Song of Wade.” Apparently, the hero doesn’t battle elves.

Massachusetts man became a millionaire twice in one night
And it was all due to one lucky mistake.

Judge dismisses Trump’s lawsuit against Bob Woodward
The president claimed that Woodward had released audio from their interviews without his consent and sought nearly $50 million in damages.

New pocket-size model of ALS ‘breathes and flows like human tissue’
A stem-cell-based “organ-on-a-chip” model of ALS mimics early biological changes seen in the degenerative disease. Read More.

Scientists discover changes to the polar vortex that are plunging parts of US into deep freeze
When the polar vortex stretches, North America feels the chill. New research reveals some of the stratospheric patterns controlling these cold snaps. Read More.

First video of an earthquake fault cracking has revealed another surprise
A stunning video of the ground cracking during a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Myanmar is revealing new surprises. Read More.

Endurance athletes that carry Neanderthal genes could be held back from reaching their peak
A Neanderthal variant in an enzyme involved in energy production has been linked to ​​a 50% lower probability of achieving elite athletic performance. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

153rd Open Championship
Rory McIlroy lines up but misses a short putt for par on the 11th green.
Photograph: Tom Jenkins

Herd community: Australian Sheep and Wool Show – in pictures
Crocheted lambs made by Sumeyra Ozyurek of Little Cotton Ears
Photograph: Steve Womersley

Beijing, China
People dressed in traditional costumes stand outside the Forbidden City
Photograph: Greg Baker/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 21^st, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44323.07	-19.12
		-0.04%
S&P 500	6305.60	+8.81
		+0.14%
NASDAQ	20974.18	+78.52
		+0.38%
TSX	27317.00	+2.99
		+0.01%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39819.11	-82.08
		-0.21%
HANG SENG	24994.14	+168.48
		+0.68%
SENSEX	82200.34	+442.61
		+0.54%
FTSE 100*	9012.99	+20.87
		+0.23%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.518	3.573
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.829	3.888
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3777	4.4155
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9440	4.9875

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7309	0.7282
US $	1.3681	1.3732

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5997	0.6251
US $	1.1694	0.8551

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3355.10	3318.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.20	67.54

Market Commentary:
The learn-it-all will always do better than the know-it-all. -Satya Nadella, CEO Microsoft, b. 1967.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 27,317.00 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.9%.
Novagold Resources Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.0%.
Today, 104 of 213 shares rose, while 107 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.7%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.1% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 3.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.42t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.27% compared with 6.34% in the previous session and the average of 6.10% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 82.3044| 2.3| 42/6
Information Technology | 6.7599| 0.2| 7/3
Utilities | 6.2065| 0.6| 10/5
Communication Services | 4.9420| 0.8| 3/2
Consumer Staples | 4.3727| 0.4| 3/7
Real Estate | 1.7260| 0.4| 11/8
Health Care | 0.0208| 0.0| 1/1
Consumer Discretionary | -2.6826| -0.3| 3/6
Financials | -22.1823| -0.2| 10/15
Industrials | -24.5736| -0.7| 12/17
Energy | -53.9638| -1.3| 2/37
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 22.1900| 3.9| 3.4| 49.3
Wheaton Precious Metals | 12.2400| 3.2| -15.7| 54.6
Shopify | 12.1700| 0.8| -40.6| 14.9
Constellation Software | -9.4200| -1.4| -31.2| 10.6
Enbridge | -13.2600| -1.4| 8.8| 0.0
Brookfield Corp | -15.4400| -1.7| -57.0| 9.9
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange returned to winning ways Monday, but only just in the end after hitting record intraday highs and looking like it would re-test last Thursday’s record close earlier in the session as rate cut expectations rebuild in Canada.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed a modest 2.99 points to 27,317.0, having been near 27,446 shortly before midday, briefly giving it a chance of beating the record close of 27,386.93 hit last week.
Among sectors, most were lower, with Energy the biggest loser, down near 1%.
No sector gained near 1%.
Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a small loss, remaining rangebound as strong summer demand counterbalanced rising supply and growth worries.
WTI oil for August delivery closed $0.14 to settle at US$67.20 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down $0.11 to US$69.17.
But gold futures were sharply higher Monday, rising to the highest in a month as the dollar and treasury yields weakened.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $49.50 to US$3,407.80 per ounce, the highest since June 18.
The Bank of Canada released both the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations for the second quarter of 2025 revived talk around the outlook for interest rates.
Katherine Judge, Senior Economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said the bank’s Q2 surveys for businesses and households showed that trade uncertainty is still weighing on activity, with sentiment still low despite an improvement from the Q1 survey.
Judge noted firms reported they cannot pass on a lot of the cost increases tied to tariffs to consumers due to weak demand, and near-term inflation expectations moved lower for businesses.
This suggests that slack may not be widening, but is persisting, and with inflation expectations well anchored, the BoC should feel comfortable cutting in September, she added.
Meanwhile, Judge also noted, the Canadian survey of consumer expectations showed that job concerns remained elevated in trade exposed sectors, but that worries had diminished from Q1.
Households are reducing spending and increasing savings because of the uncertainty, she said.
Royce Mendes, Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins Capital, noted worries about tariff pass through and inflation expectations were the reasons the BoC held rates back in June, but he said those reasons look less concerning in these surveys.
“While central bankers probably won’t ease monetary policy next week, there is ample scope for them to resume their cutting cycle later in the year should the economy continue to stagnate.
Yields in Canada are largely unchanged as this survey is unlikely to move the needle for next week’s rate decision.
However, we do expect the central bank to take a dovish tone in its communications, which could see rate cut expectations rebuild,” Mendes added.
According to National Bank Financial economists Taylor Schleich and Ethan Currie, when it comes to next week’s BoC meeting, the decision has arguably already been made.
The duo sees the central bank holding steady considering core inflation pressures, and risks.
They noted June’s reported labor market “strength” also doesn’t scream for immediate rate relief.
“Saying that, we’re not embracing the growing view that this easing cycle is over and overall, this BOS [Business Outlook Survey] supports that.
These data suggest that the economy will continue to operate below its potential (at least over coming months) and leaves us even more skeptical of June’s hiring surge.
Ultimately, inflation will be in the driver’s seat but continued and/or growing economic slack is not consistent with persistently above target inflation, even with some tariff effects.
Despite OIS market skepticism, the Bank could be off the sidelines sooner than expected.”
Still, in looking ahead, Claire Fan, Senior Economist at RBC, maintains the BoC faces an “unusually high hurdle” for considering additional rate cuts.
Fan noted the central bank must, given the brewing trade war with the United States, account for increased government support.
This, Fan said, is better suited to address concentrated weakness in trade exposed sectors than the blunt tool of lower interest rates.
RBC’s base case forecast continues to project the BoC will maintain the overnight rate at current levels going forward.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The start of a busy week for Corporate America saw stocks giving up most of their gains, with traders looking for signs of resilience in earnings amid tariff risks.
Treasury yields fell alongside the dollar.
While the S&P 500 closed above 6,300 for the first time, the equity benchmark rose just 0.1%.
Energy shares joined a decline in oil amid lingering worries about crude demand.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps outperformed, with Tesla Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. due to report results this week.
The stakes will again be high as traders look for updates on artificial-intelligence spending.
Nvidia Corp. fell.
Gains in Treasuries were led by longer maturities, with the 30-year yield slipping four basis points to 4.95%.
The greenback dropped against all its developed-world peers.
The yen climbed as Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he would carry on as leader even as the ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house election.
Investors will also keep a close eye on tariff headlines.
President Donald Trump may issue more unilateral tariff letters before Aug. 1, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
More trade deals may also be reached before the deadline, she added.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, it is becoming more evident that the Trump Administration is going to be tougher on the tariff issue going forward.
So, it’s important to decide whether this is something the stock market is pricing in right now.
“Earnings season will move into full swing this week, and the guidance will be more important than usual,” he said.
“This guidance is going to have create a very large increase in earnings estimates if the market is going to reach some of the targets that exist on Wall Street right now.”
The S&P 500 is looking at a double-digit increase in the second half of the year, powered by the resilient strength of America’s technology behemoths, according to Wells Fargo Securities’ Christopher Harvey.
“What we’re seeing is the winners continue to win,” Harvey said Monday in an interview on Bloomberg Surveillance.
“The uber-cap companies have the higher margins, are gaining more market share.
There is a real secular trend in AI that will continue.”
The second-quarter earnings season is off to a ripping start, with consumer strength powering resilient corporate profits.
Yet after hitting a series of all-time highs, the S&P 500 is trading around 22 times expected 12-month profits, leaving little room for error.
“While stocks may be due for a breather, we believe the bull market remains intact,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We maintain our June 2026 S&P 500 price target of 6,500 and recommend using volatility as an opportunity to phase into markets.”
Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson advise investors to stay bullish on US stocks, as earnings momentum, positive operating leverage and cash tax savings are under- appreciated tailwinds.
Recent dollar weakness should provide a small tailwind to S&P 500 earnings, partially offsetting the tariff earnings pressure, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin said.
“Although valuations are elevated, a large component of the S&P 500 consists of large cap tech stocks which command higher multiples due to their consistent growth, incredibly strong cash flows and profit margins,” said Richard Saperstein at Treasury Partners. “Valuation isn’t a reliable indicator for future market direction.”
The combination of declining inflation continued growth and stable interest rates is a trifecta of positives that supports current stock market valuations, he noted.
“Most of the Magnificent Seven should continue leading the market due to impressive earnings growth, copious levels of cash flow and continued demand for their businesses,” he said.
“The AI tailwinds are in the early innings and are set to benefit the biggest players in tech the most.”
Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Parag Thatte see resilient earnings growth suggesting room for equity positioning to keep rising.
The S&P 500 hasn’t posted a 1% up or down day since late June, and Mark Hackett at Nationwide notes that volatility gauges also remain “suspiciously quiet.”
“This calm is unusual and may reflect both investor fatigue and institutional hesitation to fight the current trend,” he said.
“We’re in a window where calm can quickly turn to complacency, While a break in either direction is possible, current positioning suggests we’d bet on a rally before a drop.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Hackers exploited a security flaw in common Microsoft Corp. software to breach governments, businesses and other organizations across the globe and steal sensitive information, according to officials and cybersecurity researchers.
* Verizon Communications Inc. posted second-quarter revenue that surpassed analysts’ estimates and raised its profit outlook, buoyed by wireless price increases and recent tax legislation.
* Block Inc. rallied as the firm is set to join the S&P 500, a milestone that underscores the growing influence of digital payments and crypto in mainstream finance.
* Domino’s Pizza’s launch of its Parmesan stuffed-crust pizza attracted new customers and boosted the company’s same-store sales, company executives said on its earnings call.
* Opendoor Technologies Inc. soared on Monday, extending its gravity-defying rally from last week, as investors continued to pile into the stock that has found a sudden fandom among retail traders and social-media platforms.
* Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. sank as the company refused to pause all shipments of its Elevidys treatment after three deaths were linked to the company’s gene therapies.
* Elliott Investment Management has built up its stake in Equinix Inc. and is pushing the data center operator to take steps to boost its share price, people with knowledge of the matter said.
* BP Plc, under pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management to improve its performance, appointed the former boss of a building-materials company as its new chairman, replacing Helge Lund.
* Shares of global consumer intelligence platform NIQ Global Intelligence Plc are expected to start trading this week, and their performance could open the door for other private equity- backed companies weighing going public.
* GE Vernova Inc. is acquiring French software company Alteia SAS as the maker of power generation equipment looks to use artificial intelligence for ways to strengthen the electric grid.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.6% to $1.1690
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3484
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 147.38 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $116,813.69
* Ether fell 0.2% to $3,734.1
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.38%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 2.61%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.60%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.86%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.95%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $67.03 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.5% to $3,398.78 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As always,

Carolann
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self. –Ernest Hemingway, 1899-1961.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

July 18, 1908: The Frogs, an African American theatrical organization, is founded in Harlem.
July 18, 1936: The Spanish Civil War begins as Nationalist forces rise against Spain’s Republican government, sparking a brutal three-year conflict that draws in foreign powers.
On this day in 1968, Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore, engineering refugees from Fairchild Semiconductor, established N.M. Electro. It soon changed its name to Intel.
July 18, 1969:  A car driven by Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., plunged off a bridge on Chappaquiddick Island near Martha’s Vineyard. His passenger, 28-year-old Mary Jo Kopechne, died. Go to article.

Nelson Mandela, b. 1918.
Hunter S. Thompson, b. 1939.

New bionic knee connects directly with muscles and bone to feel more like the user’s body
A bionic knee that directly attaches to the thigh bone and uses implanted electrodes can make a prosthetic leg feel more like a part of the body, a new study finds. Read More.

600-year-old amethyst ‘worthy of a duke’ found in medieval castle moat in Poland
The amethyst was set in high-quality silver and probably once formed part of a brooch. Read More.

Scientists make ‘magic state’ breakthrough after 20 years — without it, quantum computers can never be truly useful
Scientists demonstrate a process called “magic state distillation” in logical qubits for the first time, meaning we can now build quantum computers that are both error-free and more powerful than supercomputers. Read More.

Behold, ‘The Beast’: Gigantic animal-like plasma plume 13 times wider than Earth hovers over the sun
Astrophotographers have snapped stunning shots of a giant shapeshifting solar prominence, dubbed “The Beast,” which appeared over the sun’s northeastern limb on July 12 and rained impossibly fast fire over our home star.  Read More.

Giant meteor impact may have triggered massive Grand Canyon landslide 56,000 years ago
Researchers have found a link between two geological events in iconic locations of the U.S. Southwest that scientists previously didn’t think had anything to do with each other.

TSA expands security checkpoint lanes
Two groups of passengers will now have the opportunity to enjoy an expedited process through security at the airport.

Dinosaur fossil found underneath parking lot
The phrase “leave no stone unturned” has taken on new meaning for paleontologists at the Denver Museum of Nature & Science.

Stevie Nicks, Lindsey Buckingham stir up Fleetwood Mac reunion hopes
The lyrics the musicians posted on social media seem to suggest that anything is possible.

Lewis Capaldi: Antipsychotic medication ‘changed my life’
The Scottish singer has been taking care of his mental health since having a “breakdown of sorts” at the Glastonbury Festival in 2023.

Famed skydiver and BASE jumper Felix Baumgartner dies at 56
Baumgartner achieved international recognition in 2012 when he performed a jump from 24 miles above the Earth, higher than anyone before him. He died on Thursday in a paragliding accident.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

İzmir, Turkey
Tomatoes left in the sun to dry

Snettisham, Norfolk
Rise and shine. Dawn breaks across Norfolk behind St Mary’s church.’
Photograph: Richard Gibbs

In a new light: an infrared perspective of Australia’s capital
Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
Market Closes for July 18^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44342.19	-142.30
		-0.32%
S&P 500	6296.79	-0.57
		-0.01%
NASDAQ	20895.66	+10.01
		+0.05%
TSX	27314.01	-72.92
		-0.27%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39819.11	-82.08
		-0.21%
HANG SENG	24825.66	+326.71
		+1.33%
SENSEX	81757.73	-501.51
		-0.61%
FTSE 100*	8992.12	+19.48
		+0.22%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.573	3.567
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.888	3.878
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4155	4.4513
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9875	5.0072

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7282	0.7277
US $	1.3732	1.3741

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5966	0.6263
US $	1.1625	0.8602

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3318.50	3323.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	67.54	67.54

Market Commentary:
The consumer is our boss, quality is our work, and value for money is our goal. –Forrest Edward Mars Sr., 1904-1999.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 27,314.01 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.9%.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 3.6%.
Today, 111 of 213 shares fell, while 100 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by industrials stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.1%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on July 17, 2025 and 26.1% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.34% compared with 6.26% in the previous session and the average of 6.12% over the past month

Index Points
Industrials | -36.5482| -1.0| 12/17
Materials | -20.1672| -0.6| 12/36
Financials | -14.3489| -0.2| 13/11
Information Technology | -13.2050| -0.5| 2/8
Consumer Discretionary | -9.4345| -1.0| 2/7
Communication Services | -7.0552| -1.1| 1/4
Health Care | -1.1093| -1.7| 0/3
Real Estate | -0.1918| 0.0| 6/13
Utilities | 4.8761| 0.5| 10/4
Energy | 10.5991| 0.2| 34/6
Consumer Staples | 13.6689| 1.3| 8/2
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -25.6200| -3.6| 71.3| 2.2
Brookfield Corp | -13.6300| -1.5| -19.8| 11.7
Canadian National | -13.1000| -2.4| 66.1| -6.4
Intact Financial | 5.7710| 1.6| 11.6| 16.2
Nutrien | 7.4050| 2.7| -24.1| 28.0
Couche-Tard | 7.7700| 1.9| 107.6| -5.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange slipped more than 70 points Friday afternoon, falling off a day-prior record close.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 72.70 points at 27,314.23, compared with Thursday’s 27,386.34.
Industrials and Information Technology were the biggest decliners, down 4.6% and 1.9%, respectively.
Utilities topped the gainers, rising 2.1%.
Stefane Marion and Matthieu Arseneau, economists at the National Bank of Canada, said in their monthly equity monitor report that in July, Canada was one of only 11 countries in the Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World Index to reach new equity market highs in 2025.
The S&P/TSX has climbed 10.8% year-to-date, hitting a record 27,386.93 on Thursday.
The gains were supported by positive earnings forecasts and an 11% expected growth in earnings per share, the economists said, adding that risks remain, including the threat of new U.S. tariffs and signs of slowing growth.
“Nonetheless, optimism persists around a possible Canada-U.S. trade deal and Ottawa’s efforts to reduce regulatory burdens and boost investment.”
The economists said given this backdrop, they are keeping their asset allocation unchanged after last month’s move to slightly reduce fixed income and increase their position in Canadian equities.
However, their overall outlook remains cautious amid geopolitical uncertainties and tariff wars, with the U.S. President reigniting trade tensions by announcing new double-digit tariffs set to begin on Aug. 1, the note added.
Assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen and senior economist Claire Fan at RBC said the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, due Monday, is expected to show early signs of stabilization in business expectations for sales, hiring, and input costs in the second quarter, following sharp declines in the first quarter.
This improvement comes after trade tensions eased.
While Canada was a major focus of U.S. trade complaints in Q1, it was left off the list of countries facing U.S. tariffs in April.
A tariff exemption for trade under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement introduced in March also remains in place, they said.
More broadly, several indicators suggest a stabilizing Canadian economy in Q2.
Job postings have steadied, and small business confidence has continued to recover since a sharp drop in March, they added.
“The survey could highlight a divergence between sectors directly exposed to trade headwinds (such as manufacturing and transportation), which will likely maintain a softer outlook, while other sectors, particularly consumer-facing businesses, that are more positive,” they said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed lower on Friday, surrendering earlier gains that came on strong summer demand and continuing violence in the Middle East.
After trading as high as US$68.96 WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$0.20 to settle at US$67.34 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$28 to US$69.24.
Gold traded higher midafternoon on Friday as the dollar and treasury yields weakened.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$12.80 to US$3,358.10 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Bond yields fell as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his case for a July rate cut, while data showed consumer expectations for inflation improved.
Stocks wavered amid earnings.
President Donald Trump signed the stablecoins bill in a win for the crypto industry.
Short-dated Treasuries led gains as Waller hinted he would dissent if his colleagues vote to hold rates steady in July.
Bonds also rose as University of Michigan data showed consumers expect prices to increase at an annual rate of 4.4% over the next year, down from 5% in the prior month.
The S&P 500 was little changed.
The dollar edged lower, but notched an advance for the week.
“Investors have something to cheer about with signs of improved inflation expectations,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
“According to this report, the trajectory looks encouraging.”
Meantime, Waller said he sees no sign that inflation expectations are on the rise, which allows the Fed to move forward with rate cuts.
He also restated the case the Fed should cut when policymakers gather later this month, given data suggesting the US labor market is “on the edge.”
“We think he is correct. The Fed’s role is to think ahead, not look behind, which is what Waller is doing concerning the slowing employment situation,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“Nonetheless a July cut won’t happen.”
Money markets still assign near-zero odds of a cut on July 30.
They price in about 45 basis points of easing by year-end, down from more than 65 basis points at the start of the month.
US consumer sentiment rose to a five-month high in early July as expectations about the economy continued to improve.
The preliminary July sentiment index rose to 61.8 from 60.7 a month earlier, according to University of Michigan data released Friday.
The report offered further relief after data this week showed US retail sales rebounded in June in a broad advance, tempering some concerns about a retrenchment in consumer spending.
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, macroeconomic data remains broadly supportive, and the recent strength in markets has been impressive, though perhaps even more noteworthy is the prevailing sense of calm amid a busy and often volatile news cycle.
“Investors have responded positively to robust economic indicators and earnings reports that highlight continued resilience in US consumer spending,” he said.
“The rest of earnings season will be a key test given elevated valuations and expectations, though with current momentum and sentiment, the path of least resistance is higher.”
At Wolfe Research, Chris Senyek says economic data releases this week have been consistent with his view that the US economy is coming in better than consensus expects.
“However, we continue to be worried about the risk of inflation remaining stickier than expected in the back half of 2025,” Senyek noted.
The stock market’s relatively modest gains this week despite mostly solid economic data and earnings could be a preview for much of the rest of the year, according to Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
“While tariff uncertainty continues, the markets may be learning to live with it, to a certain extent,” he said.
“But with a decisive resolution unlikely in the near term and the Fed holding the line on rate cuts, price action at the index level could remain congested.”
Trump is readying plans for industry-specific tariffs to kick in alongside his country-by-country duties in two weeks, ramping up his push to reshape the US’s standing in the global trading system by penalizing purchases from abroad.
Trump is pushing for a minimum tariff of 15%-20% in any deal with the European Union, the Financial Times reported.
Meantime, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the two nations could reach a “good” trade deal while signaling the process may take more time.
“The lack of any clear damage from the tariffs, solid  earnings results, a firm job market, and consumers who keep spending are supporting the high valuations,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.

Corporate Highlights:
* The Food and Drug Administration plans to ask Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. to pause shipments of its Elevidys treatment after three deaths were linked to the company’s gene therapies, according to a person familiar with the matter.
* Humana Inc. lost a lawsuit seeking to reverse cuts to its Medicare bonus payments, a blow for the insurer that had hoped the court would restore billions in revenue.
* American Express Co.’s expenses grew in the second quarter as the firm made risk-management investments for its affluent consumers, who continued to spend amid economic uncertainty.
* Netflix Inc. beat expectations for second-quarter results and continues to trounce rival media companies, yet the shares slipped on Friday as investors took a pause after the stock has nearly doubled over the past year.
* 3M Co. raised its profit forecast and beat Wall Street’s estimates for the second quarter as Chief Executive Officer William Brown’s effort to reinvigorate the company gained momentum.
* Chevron Corp. has prevailed in a 20-month fight to buy Hess Corp. for $53 billion, overcoming a challenge by arch rival Exxon Mobil Corp. that was unprecedented in the modern history of Big Oil.
* SLB, the world’s largest oil-services provider, sees resiliency in the industry and remains constructive about the second half of 2025 despite uncertainties in customer demand.
* Interactive Brokers Group Inc. reported total net interest income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
* Charles Schwab Corp. reported earnings per share that topped estimates as the firm said client assets hit a new record and trading revenue rose.
* Ally Financial Inc. left most of its forecast unchanged despite strong second-quarter consumer auto-loan originations and earnings.
* Meta Platforms Inc. said it won’t sign the code of practice for Europe’s new set of laws governing artificial intelligence, calling the guidelines to help companies follow the AI Act overreach.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1622
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3413
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 148.73 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $117,433.01
* Ether rose 3.9% to $3,554.18
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.67%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.87%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined one basis point to m5.00%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $67.38 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,348.06 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone. 🔆

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You will never do anything in this world without courage.  It is the greatest quality of the mind next to honor. –Aristotle, 384 BCE-322 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com