Category: Uncategorized

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!

August 29, 1831: Michael Faraday discovers electromagnetic induction, laying the foundation for electric power generation.
August 29, 1839: Amistad seized.
August 29, 1885: Gottlieb Daimler registers his “Reitwagen” (“riding carriage”) as German patent DRP No. 36423. With its wooden chassis and revolutionary gasoline-powered internal-combustion engine, the Reitwagen is the world’s first motorcycle–and the first mechanized vehicle for personal transport.
August 29, 1966: Allen Ginsberg reads his poetry to a crowd in Washington Square Park.
On Aug. 29, 1991, the Supreme Soviet, the parliament of the U.S.S.R., suspended all activities of the Communist Party, bringing an end to the institution. Go to article.

John Locke, philosopher, b.1632.
Ingrid Bergman, actress, b.1915.
Charlie “Bird” Parker, musician, b.1920.
Michael Jackson, entertainer, b. 1958.

Cyclist Chris Froome airlifted to hospital after training crash
The four-time Tour de France winner suffered several broken bones in the incident

Fossils of ‘jaw-droppingly weird’ dinosaur discovered
This armored plant-eater was adorned with spikes, some of which were about 3 feet long.

Changes coming to ‘SNL’
As the NBC sketch show enters its 51st season, several cast members are departing.

Eager to know more about this week’s big marriage proposal?
Travis Kelce’s dad spills more details about how it all went down.

‘A truly unprecedented discovery’: 3,000-year-old multicolored mural with fish, stars and gods discovered in Peru

A multicolored mural discovered in Peru is shedding light on pre-Inca coastal artistic traditions. Read More.

‘Cool gemstones’ and ‘fiery grime’: James Webb telescope finds clues to Earth’s origins in dazzling new view of Butterfly Nebula

In a dazzling new photo, the James Webb Space Telescope zooms in on the Butterfly Nebula — the dying gasps of one of the hottest stars in the sky, which could hold clues to Earth’s origins. Read More.

China’s ‘Darwin Monkey’ is the world’s largest brain-inspired supercomputer

Darwin Monkey or ‘Wukong’ features over 2 billion artificial neurons and more than 100 billion synapses — similar to the neural structure of a macaque. Read More.

70 million-year-old hypercarnivore that ate dinosaurs named after Egyptian god

Researchers have unveiled Kostensuchus atrox, a giant crocodile relative that ate dinosaurs in Argentina 70 million years ago during the Cretaceous period. Read More.

‘Now is the time’: Hurricane category 6 could be introduced under new storm severity scale

The current hurricane classification does not consider storm surge and rainfall risks, which cause almost 80% of hurricane-related deaths. A new scale could help people better prepare for storms.
Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Varpalota, Hungary
Visitors sit in a light installation titled Matriz by the Spanish street artist SpY, in the turbine hall of the decommissioned Inota thermal power plant on the opening night of the annual INOTA audiovisual art festival
Photograph: Tamas Vasvari/EPA

Crans-Montana, Switzerland
John Ellis, the caddie for Wyndham Clark, on the seventh hole at the Crans-Sur-Sierre golf club on day two of the European Masters
Photograph: Stuart Franklin/Getty Images

Sicily, Italy
People watch a flow of lava from Mount Etna, which remains active after eruptions resumed on 10 August
Photograph: Giuseppe Distefano/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for Aug 29^th,2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45544.88	-92.02
		-0.20%
S&P 500	6460.26	-41.60
		-0.64%
NASDAQ	21455.55	-249.61
		-1.15%
TSX	28564.45	+129.65
		+0.46%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	42718.47	-110.32
		-0.26%
HANG SENG	25077.62	+78.80
		+0.32%
SENSEX	79809.65	-270.92
		-0.34%
FTSE 100*	9187.34	-29.48
		-0.32%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.375	3.426
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.824	3.853
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2284	4.2033
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9274	4.8755

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7274	0.7272
US $	1.3747	1.3751

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6072	0.6222
US $	1.1686	0.8557

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3407.65	3376.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	64.01	64.60

Market Commentary:
When you want to test the depths of a stream, don’t use both feet. – Chinese Proverb.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 0.5%, or 129.65 to 28,564.45 in Toronto.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.8%.
BRP Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.4%.
Today, 139 of 211 shares rose, while 67 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.8%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.8%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 28.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.57t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.74% compared with 9.78% in the previous session and the average of 9.27% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 91.4659| 2.2| 46/2
Financials | 27.1835| 0.3| 11/13
Consumer Staples | 9.2608| 0.9| 9/1
Energy | 6.6033| 0.1| 21/16
Consumer Discretionary | 6.5333| 0.7| 6/3
Real Estate | 1.6531| 0.3| 18/1
Health Care | 1.1370| 1.7| 3/0
Communication Services | 0.5258| 0.1| 4/1
Industrials | -3.1281| -0.1| 10/18
Utilities | -3.2757| -0.3| 6/7
Information Technology | -8.3091| -0.3| 5/5
TD Bank | 34.3500| 2.8| 91.0| 34.7
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 23.1700| 3.4| 35.5| 76.1
Constellation |Software | 17.7100| 2.9| 2.9| 2.4
Shopify | -6.8190| -0.4| -25.8| 26.8
RBC | -11.7800| -0.6| -32.6| 15.2
Celestica | -19.9800| -8.5| 38.5| 101.6
BRP Inc. | 9.4| 1.7940| 414.4| 18.1
Endeavour Silver| 6.2| 1.0130| 20.5| 62.8
NexGen Energy | 6.0| 2.4320| 70.7| 14.0
Celestica | -8.5| -19.9800| 38.5| 101.6
Laurentian Bank | of Canada | -3.7| -0.3640| 658.9| 5.3
Athabasca Oil | -2.4| -0.5280| 0.1| 12.9
(MT Newswires):
Canadian investors marched into the Labour Day holiday weekend across North America by lifting the Toronto Stock Exchange to its sixth record close in seven sessions, even as National Bank says the Canadian economy “seems in dire need of a trad agreement” and suggests Bank of Canada can provide “a little extra help” while waiting for the federal government’s budget plans.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 129.66 points, or 0.5% at 28,564.45, In beginning its record run over the last seven days, the index closed at 28,055.43 on Aug. 21.
The first record close of the month came on August 5, at 27,570.88, near 1,000 points south of where the TSX stands now.
Ssectors were mixed, with Health Care, up 1.6%, the only one gaining more than 1%, while Info Tech was the biggest loser, down a modest 0.8%.
Among individual stocks, Laurentian Bank (LB.TO) fell 3.7% as it closed out the third-quarter earnings season for Canadian banks.
The bank’s shares were down even as its performance in lowering provision for credit losses drove a Q3 beat, reporting core cash EPS of $0.78 versus National Bank Financial’s forecast of $0.70 and consensus of $0.73.
National Bank said Laurentian’s outperformance this quarter was driven by $9 million of performing provision releases, adding $0.20 to EPS vs.  National’s estimates.
But it added the provision release was at odds with other credit trends such as higher-than-expected loan losses as well as a 28% sequential increase in impaired formations.
While loan growth exceeded expectations due to an increase in CRE balances, the bank expects “muted” growth for the next quarter, along with stable margins, National noted.
National kept an underperform rating on the bank’s shares and lowered its target to $26.00 from $27.00.
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high late afternoon on Friday as the dollar weakened after a key U.S. inflation measure came in steady last month, meeting market expectations, but failing to dim hopes for coming interest-rate cuts.
Gold for December delivery was seen up $41.60 to US$3.515.90 per ounce, above the July 22 record close of US$3,501.30.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower ahead of the Labor Day weekend that marks the end of the high-demand U.S. driving season and the arrival on Monday of the final 548,000 barrel per day tranche of OPEC+’s 2.2-million bpd of production hikes.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed down $0.59 to settle at US$64.01 per barrel, while October Brent crude was las seen down $0.50 to US$68.12.
On the economics front, Statistics Canada early Friday released data showing nominal GDP pulled back 1.6% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, following a 0.5% increase in the first quarter and nine ticks lower than the consensus estimate calling for a 0.7% contraction in Q2. StatsCan also released an advance estimate for July showing growth of 0.1% in the month.
“Overall,” said National Bank’s Matthieu Arseneau and Kyle Dahms, “this morning’s data does not change our view that the Canadian economy, already in excess supply, has experienced difficulties in the second quarter and will in the third.
The downward revision of monthly GDP for June (preliminary was 0.1% and was revised to -0.1%) and the weak rebound in July lead us to believe that the economic weakness will continue into the third quarter.
Moreover, yesterday’s labor market data points to a widespread deterioration in the labor market … which should limit consumption in Q3, especially as households grapple with an interest payment shock at current rate levels.
This economy seems in dire need of a trade agreement to give businesses greater visibility.
In the meantime, the Bank of Canada can provide a little extra help while waiting for the federal government’s budget plans.”
Also, while looking ahead, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, said there remain challenges that should weigh on growth in the near-term.
Doyle noted monthly data showed a third consecutive GDP decline of -0.1% MoM in June, indicating a weak handoff effect.
He said this marks a sharp reduction relative to the preliminary estimate and will weigh on estimates for Q3.
Doyle also noted trade policy uncertainty remains elevated, despite PM Mark Carney’s recent announcement that Canada would drop many of its retaliatory tariffs on the U.S.
Additionally, the labour market remains weak, population growth continues to slow, and mortgage rate resets remain a challenge for housing activity, Doyle added.
“Beyond this,” Doyle said, “there are causes for more optimism in 2026.
The potential for an improvement in U.S. activity should have positive implications for Canada’s business cycle, notwithstanding trade policy uncertainty.”
For the BoC ahead, Macquarie continues to project two further rate cuts of 25 bps each, with the most likely timing for these being in October and December.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks down amid a selloff in tech shares that have powered the surge from April’s meltdown.
The slide came despite inflation data that did little to alter bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with short-term bond yields edging lower.
A rout in the S&P 500’s most-influential group drove the index down from a record at the end of a solid August.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%.
The market is bracing for what is known as the weakest month for US shares, as institutional investors rebalance, retail traders slow their buying and volatility picks up.
“It’s month end, and we are entering the most historically challenging month of the year,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
“Being cautious would seem prudent. It may not last long, given the repeated success of dip buyers.”
While macro events are generally more determinant for the market’s direction, seasonal factors can exacerbate moves triggered by the likes of economic data or monetary policy.
US consumer spending rose in July by the most in four months, indicating resilient demand in the face of stubborn inflation.
That was ahead of next week’s all-important jobs report, which will be key in setting the pace of Fed rate cuts by year- end.
“Barring a blowout nonfarm payrolls print next Friday, we view a September 17 rate cut as likely, given the growing chorus of dovish Fedspeak,” said Jennifer Timmerman at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly suggested policymakers will be ready to lower rates soon, adding that inflation stemming from tariffs will likely prove temporary.
Despite Friday’s drop, S&P 500 saw its fourth straight month of gains.
Nvidia Corp. led losses in megacaps.
Dell Technologies Inc. sank amid tighter profit margins on servers.
AI infrastructure shares slid as Marvell Technology Inc.’s outlook raised concern about data-center equipment demand.
Treasuries cemented a monthly gain in anticipation of Fed cuts.
While bonds were mixed Friday, the policy-sensitive two- year yield fell one basis point to 3.62%.
The dollar was little changed at the end of a weak August.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy items and is favored by the Fed, rose 0.3% from June.
From the prior year, the gauge picked up to 2.9%, the most since February.
“The good news is, in-line expectations likely keep the status quo intact, which leaves a Fed rate cut in play for September,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“The bad news is, inflation is continuing to inch higher, which isn’t really the environment the Fed likely wants to cut in.”
For now, though, Kenwell notes that an in-line PCE report should lend more confidence to a September rate cut.
Short of a robust job reading, it’s hard to see any data derailing the Fed’s plan to cut rates in September, he said.
The Fed has kept rates unchanged so far in 2025, largely due to concerns that tariffs could stoke inflationary pressures.
But lackluster employment figures released after the July meeting have prompted greater concern, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week a cut could be warranted, citing a “shifting balance of risks.”
“With earnings season now behind us, most will turn their focus back to economic data, one release being the August jobs report that is due next week,” said Adam Phillips at EP Wealth Advisors.
“Any news that brings September’s rate cut into question could be a wake-up call for investors.”
“The Fed opened the door to rate cuts, but the size of that opening is going to depend on whether labor-market weakness continues to look like a bigger risk than rising inflation,”
said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “For now, the odds still favor a September cut.”
With the Fed remaining laser-focused on labor market weakness, as long as next Friday’s data does not change the narrative of a jobs market on the verge of a collapse, the door is wide open for a September rate cut, according to Atakan Bakiskan at Berenberg.
US WEEK AHEAD: Nonfarm Payrolls Won’t Settle Rate-Cut Debate
Fed Governor Christopher Waller this week called for lower rates, saying he would support a quarter-percentage point reduction in September and anticipates additional cuts over the next three to six months.
While he does not currently see the need for an outsized cut, that could change if the jobs report due next week “points to a substantially weakening economy and inflation remains well contained.”
Friday’s data left intact expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year, beginning as soon as next month, in response to signs of a softer labor market even as inflation remains above the 2% target.
“While there might be some impact from tariffs, fears about spiraling inflation aren’t coming true yet,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“Strong personal income and spending also suggest consumers remain healthy, even if they’re anxious about the future.”
Inflation is increasing ever so slightly, but right in line with forecasts and the latest PCE data should only increase the probability of a Fed rate cut next month, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
While Friday’s selling in stocks could have been investors trying to get ahead of the seasonal weakness, we’re entering September after the S&P 500 made a series of record highs for the year and at short-term overbought levels — “leaving little margin for error,” according to Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
“Although September is typically the weakest month of the year on average, we don’t see anything on the horizon to knock this bull market off its path,” Zaccarelli said.
If there is any volatility in September or October, it will likely prove to be “a great buying opportunity as we are setting up to rally into year end, especially if the Fed is cutting rates outside of a recession,” he concluded.
In fact, Gina Bolvin says September isn’t necessarily that bad when strong momentum is in place.
Historically, the month is negative about 44% of the time, yet when trading above the 200-day moving average — as we are now — the average return is still positive by 1%.
“That backdrop supports the ‘buy the dip’ narrative,” said the president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
“I still expect seasonal weakness to kick in and would look to be a buyer on dips.”

Corporate Highlights:
* The Trump administration will make it harder for Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. to ship critical equipment to their chipmaking operations in China, dealing a potential blow to the companies’ production in the world’s largest semiconductor market.
* Super Micro Computer Inc. cautioned that weaknesses in its controls related to financial disclosures could, if not fixed, hurt the company’s ability to report results “in a timely and accurate manner.”
* Just three weeks after its last quarterly report, Caterpillar Inc. is warning investors it now expects tariffs to have an even greater impact on its business, costing it as much as $1.8 billion this year.
* Gap Inc. expects its margins will shrink this year; a sign tariffs are slowing recent turnaround momentum.
* Petco Health & Wellness Co Inc. raised its earnings targets for the year as the company’s turnaround starts showing signs of progress.
* Ulta Beauty Inc. raised its full-year outlook after reporting second-quarter results that topped expectations, even as it warned of a potential pullback by consumers.
* UK users of the Mounjaro obesity shot will be spared the full impact of maker Eli Lilly & Co.’s price increase as some pharmacies opt to shield customers — at least for now.
* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. reported a surge in revenue from China’s AI boom, helping assuage investors nervous about the fallout from a worsening battle with Meituan and JD.com Inc. in internet commerce.
* Huawei Technologies Co. posted a first-half profit, getting back into the black after the emergence of DeepSeek ignited a wave of AI development across China.
* BYD Co. reported a surprise drop in quarterly profit due to fierce price competition in its home market, piling more pressure on the Chinese carmaker already poised to miss its annual sales targets.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Stock and bond markets have a history of moving in tandem in September, based on the past five years.
If the trend re- establishes itself in 2025, the likely direction for both markets is lower, with investors banking on an extended cycle of interest-rate cuts bound for disappointment.”
—Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1698
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3515
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 146.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.3% to $108,227.01
* Ether fell 2.6% to $4,343.75
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.23%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.72%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $63.97 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,451.48 an ounce

–With assistance from Isabelle Lee.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You can make more friends in two months by becoming interested in other people than you can in two years of trying
to get other people interested in you. –Dale Carnegie, 1888-1955.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

August 28, 1833: Britain abolishes slavery as the Slavery Abolition Act gains royal assent, freeing more than 800,000 enslaved people across the Empire.
August 28, 1963: March on Washington.: Martin Luther King, “I have a dream.”
August 28, 2005: New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin ordered everyone in the city to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Katrina. Go to article

Johann W. von Goethe, b.1749.
Shania Twain, b. 1965.

Whatever you can do or dream you can, begin it.
Boldness has genius, power and magic in it. -Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, 1749-

James Webb telescope images reveal there’s something strange with interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS

NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has made its first observations of interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS, revealing that the comet appears to be unusually rich in carbon dioxide. Read More.

80,000-year-old stones in Uzbekistan may be the world’s oldest arrowheads — and they might have been made by Neanderthals

Small stone points discovered in Uzbekistan may be the earliest evidence of arrowhead technology. Read More.

Scientists just developed a new AI modeled on the human brain — it’s outperforming LLMs like ChatGPT at reasoning tasks

The hierarchical reasoning model (HRM) system is modeled on the way the human brain processes complex information, and it outperformed leading LLMs in a notoriously
hard-to-beat benchmark. Read More

France returns 3 skulls to Madagascar
One of them even belonged to royalty.
Brightest fast radio burst ever detected coming from nearby galaxy
Such observations could shed light on one of the most mysterious cosmic phenomena ever studied.

MIT researchers are buzzing about new robot
The machine weighs less than a paperclip, can fly 6.5 feet per second and may someday work on other planets.

This hobby is costing young men big bucks
Yet a recent study showed 26% of men under the age of 45 are participating in it.
Green it like you mean it
Simple changes can make a profound difference in creating a sustainable college campus. Here are five to try.

6 in 10:That’s how many teachers used an AI tool for work in the 2024-2025 school year, according to a study from the Walton Family Foundation and Gallup. PHOTOS OF THE DAY

St John’s Garage, Whithorn, Wigtownshire, 1947
A diverse array of structures was utilised – churches, cinemas, railway arches, fire stations, shops, factories all proved versatile enough to find second lives as garages.
Perhaps the most unusual garage in Britain, St John’s was built as a Reformed Presbyterian church in 1892. Dwindling attendance led to its closure, and it was converted into a garage and filling station in 1947
Photograph: Philip Butler

Essence of Kamchatka shows a brown bear in Russia’s far east as a slaty-backed gull fly past. Taken by Kesshav Vikram, from India, it was highly commended in the 11 to 14 years category. Vikram waited days for the bear to stroll along the shore of Kurile Lake to feast on a glut of sockeye salmon migrating upriver to spawn.
Photograph: Kesshav Vikram/2025 Wildlife Photographer of the Year

Clouds of Gold shows the salt ponds that border San Francisco Bay. Taken from his light aircraft by Jassen Todorov, from the US, it reveals how the South Bay salt pond restoration project has removed artificial dykes to recreate tidal marsh habitats, allowing salt-tolerant plants and wildlife to flourish once more.
Photograph: Jassen Todorov/2025 Wildlife Photographer of the Year
Market Closes for Aug 28^th,2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45636.90	+71.67
		+0.16%
S&P 500	6501.86	+20.46
		+0.32%
NASDAQ	21705.16	+115.02
		+0.53%
TSX	28434.80	+1.80
		+0.01%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	42828.79	+308.52
		+0.73%
HANG SENG	24998.82	-202.94
		-0.81%
SENSEX	80080.57	-705.97
		-0.87%
FTSE 100*	9216.82	-38.68
		-0.42%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.426	3.450
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.853	3.888
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2033	4.2324
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8755	4.9091

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7272	0.7258
US $	1.3751	1.3779

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6059	0.6227
US $	1.1678	0.8563

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3376.35	3367.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	64.60	64.15

Market Commentary:
Everything must change so that nothing changes. -Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa, 1896-1957.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 28,434.80 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 0.9%.
Celestica Inc. had the largest increase, rising 4.9%.
Today, 110 of 211 shares rose, while 97 fell; 3 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.3%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.4%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 3.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.57t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.78% compared with 10.01% in the previous session and the average of 9.12% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 28.5204| 1.0| 7/3
Energy | 25.5121| 0.6| 20/16
Utilities | 0.9732| 0.1| 9/5
Health Care | -0.1603| -0.2| 1/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.3395| 0.0| 4/5
Real Estate | -0.5944| -0.1| 8/11
Communication Services | -3.0839| -0.5| 1/4
Materials | -7.3848| -0.2| 22/26
Consumer Staples | -7.6187| -0.8| 4/6
Industrials | -13.4502| -0.4| 15/14
Financials | -20.5653| -0.2| 19/5
Shopify | 14.9200| 0.9| -22.5| 27.3
CIBC | 13.8200| 2.0| 149.1| 16.5
Cameco | 13.2200| 4.2| -7.0| 46.3
Canadian Pacific | Kansas | -6.8370| -1.0| -20.6| 0.8
Canadian National | -7.5100| -1.5| -32.5| -9.4
TD Bank | -57.1500| -4.5| 172.3| 31.0
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday eked out a new record close, rising by less than two points as higher commodity prices and gains in Guardian Capital Group and some other financial stocks just about outweighed a report from Statistics Canada that this nation recorded a huge deficit in goods and services trade for the second quarter.
There was a late mini rally on the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index to bring up a gain of just 1.8 points from Wednesday’s record close to 28,434,80, the fourth record finish in the last five sessions even amid mixed sectors.
Only the Battery Metals Index was down near 1%, while only Info Tech was up by more than 1%.
Of commodities, gold moved higher late afternoon Friday as expectations for lower U.S. interest rates pushed the dollar down.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $27.80 to US$3,476.40 per ounce, the highest since Aug. 8.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose, but remained firmly rangebound, as traders anticipate the coming end of high-demand U.S. summer driving season while waiting to see if India will continue to defy 50% secondary sanctions on its imports into the U.S. for buying Russian oil.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed up $0.45 to settle at US$64.60 per barrel, while October Brent crude was last seen up $0.52 to US$68.57.
Canada’s current account deteriorated to a record shortfall of $19.5 billion in the second quarter, up from just $800 million in the first quarter, Shelly Kaushik, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, said exports are likely to remain under pressure amid ongoing trade talks with the United States.
“Improvements in services trade and the primary income account were not enough to offset the worsening in goods trade, while the secondary income deficit also widened,” Kaushik added.
Kaushik noted trade tensions also left their mark on the capital account: there was a net outflow of $16.8 billion from Canadian securities, the second largest on record after 2007.
Canadian investors bought a net $26.8 billion of foreign securities, down from an even larger flow in Q1.
“The trade war has had a significant impact on Canada’s current account.
We expect to see more evidence of that impact in Friday’s Q2 GDP report,” Kaushik said.
In the financials galaxy, Guardian Capital Group was up 45% and hit a fresh 52-week high after saying Thursday it is going private after accepting Desjardins Global Asset Management’s offer to acquire it in a $1.7 billion deal.
Meanwhile, CIBC (CM.TO, CM) was up 2% and posted a fresh 52-week high as it reported an earnings and revenue beat for the third quarter, boosted by a strong core business performance.
But Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO. TD) was down 4.5% despite swinging to a profit for the third quarter as it continues to recover from a drug money laundering scandal in the United States and booked the sale of its investment in The Charles Schwab Corporation earlier this year.
National Bank said although TD’s Q3 EPS exceeded forecasts, the stock reacted negatively.
In its view, this outcome reflected a variety of factors: perceived quality of the “beat”, which was primarily credit-driven; despite lower PCLs this quarter, management commentary that suggested a reversion to a higher loss rate was expected; and U.S. balance sheet repositioning and investment spending across the bank that raises growth questions beyond this year’s “transition” period.
National Bank kept it sector-perform rating on TD shares, but its target edged up to $100 From $99.00 at National Bank.
The last of the regional banks, Laurentian (L.TO), will report its third-quarter earnings on Friday.
National Bank is forecasting cash EPS of $0.70 compared to a consensus $0.73.
Among key themes, National Bank will be look out for include: if seasonal weakness of Inventory Finance loans weighs on NIM [net interest margin]; if investment spending weighs on efficiency; and if credit performance has been steady.
National Bank noted Laurentian’s NIM has come in ahead of guidance/forecasts in each of the past two quarters, as growth in the higher margin equipment/inventory finance businesses has been strong (+8% year over year for the first half of 25).
For Q3, management has guided towards a moderation in margins, given a seasonal reduction in inventory finance loans.
National forecasts a near 5% sequential contraction in the equipment/inventory finance businesses, resulting in NIM compression of 2bps Q/Q.
In Laurentian’s previous third-quarter, National Bank noted, the bank beat consensus and National Bank Financial estimates “handily”, primarily due to a sharp drop in expenses (down 5% Q/Q and down 2% Y/Y).
However, it said, this expense beat was primarily due to a 25% Y/Y decline in performance-based compensation.
Excluding this item, expenses would have been +1% Y/Y (300 bps impact).
For the second half of 2025, National noted LB expects elevated expenses, as the company steps up investments in technology/IT spending.
National estimates a Q3 NIX ratio of 76%, with negative operating leverage of minus 3%.
National noted LB’s PCLs have come in line or lower than expected in each of the first two quarters of the year (i.e., 0% below forecast during Q1 2025, 4% lower during Q2).
LB attributes this to its highly secured lending model, where near 93% of total loans are collateralized, and a mortgage portfolio with a large proportion of insured loans (i.e., 61% of res.  Mortgages, 32% of CRE are insured).
For Q3 2025, management has maintained its PCL ratio guidance in the high teens (NBFe at 18 bps).
Moreover, National noted that unlike the Big-6 banks, LB has not made material additions to its performing provisions this year (or 2024, for that matter).
Rather, National added, it has released provisions in 6 of the last 8 quarters, including a cumulative $37 million over Q2 2024 to Q1 2025.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A solid economic reading drove stocks to fresh all-time highs, but Wall Street traders refrained from making big moves before inflation data that could bring more clues on the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Short-dated Treasury yields rose.
The dollar fell.
Just 24 hours ahead of the release of the Fed’s favored price gauge, data showed the US economy expanded faster than initially estimated, underscoring the resilience of America’s primary growth engine — consumer spending.
While that soothes recession jitters, it raises doubts about the inflation outlook.
A report Friday is forecast to show the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 2.9% in July from a year ago.
That would be fastest pace in five months.
“In-line or lower results will likely cement investors’ confidence in a September rate cut,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“While a higher-than-expected print may not take a rate cut off the table next month, it could sour Wall Street’s mood as inflation concerns grow.”
The S&P 500 topped 6,500, buoyed by gains in technology shares.
Nvidia Corp. pared losses as several analysts raised their price targets despite an uninspiring forecast.
In late hours, Dell Technologies Inc. boosted its annual outlook.
The policy-sensitive two-year yield rose two basis points to 3.63%.
Swap contracts continued to fully price in a quarter- point Fed cut this year by October and a second one by year-end.
About 20 basis points of easing are priced in for September.
Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, which measures the value of goods and services produced in the US, increased at a 3.3% annualized pace in the second quarter.
That compared with an initially reported 3% increase.
“The economy appears to be on all cylinders, and it should be a boost of confidence to markets that most of the tariff- angst was misplaced earlier this year,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“However, markets have already priced in a September rate cut and it is important that the inflation data remains restrained between now and then.”
As long as the upcoming inflation reports don’t surprise to the upside, the markets should continue their grind higher, he noted.
“Although we are concerned about elevated valuations, it hasn’t been prudent to take preemptive action ahead of a downturn,” Zaccarelli said.
“The bull market is alive and well and it will take a meaningful catalyst – such as a recession – to derail it.”
To Jeff Roach at LPL Financial, the upward revisions to second quarter economic growth raises the bar for the third quarter.
“Slowing job growth indicates the economy will not keep up with the above-trend growth from the previous quarter,” Roach said.
“Economic growth will likely flatline in the third quarter.
Softer growth in the third quarter will add fuel to those calling for rate cuts.”
While the latest GDP report provides a bit more clarity, the focus remains on the delicate balance between elevated inflation and a softening labor market, according to Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
Baird noted that Fed Chair Jerome Powell threw an additional lifeline of hope to investors looking for a September rate cut at his Jackson Hole speech last week.
Whether policymakers will deliver additional easing in the months that follow is less certain.
“Powell’s acknowledgment of the growing risk to the job market appears to open the door to additional rate cuts even though most measures of inflation remain above the central bank’s comfort zone,” Baird said.
US initial jobless claims edged down to 229,000 last week, suggesting employers are holding onto current workers amid economic uncertainty.
Businesses so far have been reluctant to cut staff on a large scale, but they have pulled back on hiring.
At the same time, the elevated number of recurring applications indicates that it is taking longer for out-of-work people to find a job.
Meantime, the GDP report also showed the PCE excluding food and energy rose at a 2.5% rate in the second quarter — the same as initially estimated.
US PREVIEW: Fed’s Preferred Gauge to Show Persistent Inflation “Yesterday we wrote about how Nvidia earnings had the potential to either trash or turbocharge major stock indices. So far, it’s done neither,” Sosnick says.
“In theory, tomorrow’s Core PCE report can do the same, but traders are assuming that it too will have little impact. That’s probably prudent.”
While core inflation is likely to rise — in large part because of financial-services prices — the data will likely show slower pass-through from tariffs, according to Stuart Paul at Bloomberg Economics.
In fact, as for Nvidia analysts are staying bullish on the shares, boosting their price targets even as the world’s most valuable company offered a forecast that underwhelmed investors.
Citing the chip giant’s longer-term prospects, at least 10 firms hiked their 12-month price targets after its results Wednesday, raising the average by 3% to $202.60, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
While calm prevailed on Wall Street on Thursday, Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial noted financial markets often shift gears in September, entering a period historically associated with seasonal weakness and increased market instability.
Over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 has posted an average drop of 0.7% in September, making it the worst performing month for stocks, Turnquist noted.
When September finished in the red, the average loss was 3.8%.
This compares to the average gain of 3.2% when September was higher.
“Seasonal data represents the typical climate for stocks but not the weather.
And currently, the weather for the S&P 500 is filled with blue skies and record highs.
When accounting for momentum and trend, September doesn’t look so bad,” he said.
When the S&P 500 is above its 200-day moving average going into September, he said the average price return for the month jumps to 1.3%, with 60% of occurrences producing positive results.
“We remain confident in the equity outlook and forecast the S&P 500 at 6,800 by June 2026,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We think broad, diversified exposure to equity markets should enable investors to participate in AI-driven growth, though we see greater opportunities at a single-security and thematic level.”
Her firm recommends investors seek a more balanced exposure across the AI value chain, with a preference now for laggards that offer a more attractive risk-reward tradeoff.
Alongside the tech sector, we favor the health care, utilities, and financials sectors within US equities.

Corporate Highlights:
* Snowflake Inc. surged after the company gave a strong outlook, calming investor anxiety that software vendors will be hurt by a slowing economy and new competition from artificial intelligence upstarts.
* CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. rose following an earnings report that included strong results, but a sales forecast that narrowly missed analysts’ estimates.
* Best Buy Co. warned that tariffs continue to weigh on its business ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season, taking the shine off a quarter in which the electronics retailer boosted sales for the first time in more than three years.
* Bath & Body Works Inc.’s profit missed expectations for the first time since 2020, underscoring the turnaround challenge for its new chief executive officer.
* Victoria’s Secret & Co. raised its outlook after strong quarterly sales signaled new Chief Executive Officer Hillary Super’s turnaround plan is taking hold.
* Dollar General Corp. gave investors a mixed bag on Thursday as it barely increased its sales forecast while also pointing to looming pressure on costs and margin.
* Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. fell as the retailer prepares to acquire Foot Locker Inc., a sign that investors are nervous about management’s ability to turn around the struggling sneaker chain.
* Toronto-Dominion Bank and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce topped estimates as both companies reported strong performance in their domestic-banking units and lower-than-expected loan- loss provisions.
* Nippon Steel Corp. said it’s moving closer to its long-term goal of reaching 100 million tons of annual crude steel production capacity after its acquisition of United States Steel Corp.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.2%
* Nvidia fell 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1683
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3512
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 146.92 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $111,913.45
* Ether fell 3.4% to $4,439.68
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.21%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.70%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.63%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.88%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $64.32 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $3,422.14 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends. -Martin Luther King Jr., 1929-1968.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends.,

Tangents:
August 26, 1843: Charles Thurber receives a US patent for the first practical typewriter, designed specifically to assist the blind and nervous in writing.
August 26, 2003: Investigators concluded that NASA’s overconfident management and inattention to safety doomed the space shuttle Columbia as much as damage to the craft did. Go to article.

August 26, 1883: Krakatoa erupts; 36,000 killed.

Christopher Columbus, explorer, b. 1451.
Worried about having two copies of the ‘Alzheimer’s gene’?
A new study has discovered a way for people with this genetic makeup to lower their risk for dementia.

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Two old friends attended a baseball game last weekend. It was the perfect way to spend a day off.

‘Potentially hazardous’ asteroid Bennu contains dust older than the solar system itself — and traces of interstellar space

The near-Earth asteroid Bennu contains stardust that is older than the solar system and clues about its violent history, three new studies of the asteroid’s sample materials show. Read More.

Laser-blasted ‘black metal’ could make solar technology 15 times more efficient

Unlike solar panels, solar thermoelectric generators can convert heat from any source into electricity. But poor efficiency has held the technology back – until now. Read More

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Anglet, France
France’s Sam Piter competes in the night-surfing competition at Chambre d’Amour beach
Photograph: Gaizka Iroz/AFP/Getty Images

Bregaglia, Switzerland
A hiker pauses on a suspension bridge, previously closed because of mudslides, on a trail to the Swiss Alpine Club’s Sciora hut
Photograph: Gian Ehrenzeller/EPA

Yorkshire, England
A competitor prepares her pony for the Kilnsey show, which has marked the end of summer in the Dales since 1897
Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images
Market Closes for Aug 26^th,2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45418.07	+135.60
		+0.30%
S&P 500	6465.94	+26.62
		+0.41%
NASDAQ	21544.27	+94.98
		+0.44%
TSX	28339.88	+169.94
		+0.60%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	42394.40	-413.42
		-0.97%
HANG SENG	25524.92	-304.99
		-1.18%
SENSEX	80786.54	-849.37
		-1.04%
FTSE 100*	9265.80	-55.60
		-0.60%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.462	3.472
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.882	3.877
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2615	4.2751
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9193	4.8897

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7226	0.7220
US $	1.3838	1.3850

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6118	0.6204
US $	1.1668	0.8586

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3334.25	3334.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.25	65.30

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1919, the Coca-Cola Co. successfully sold shares to outsiders for the first time, as a syndicate of banks and brokers from around the country bought 417,000 shares to resell to retail investors at an initial offering price of $40. An earlier attempt at a stock offering in 1892 failed miserably.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 28,339.88 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.6%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 3 of 11 sectors gained; 100 of 211 shares rose, while 107 fell.
Bank of Nova Scotia contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 6.9%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 12.4%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 4%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.2% below its 52-week high on Aug. 22, 2025 and 27.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.9% in the past 5 days and rose 3.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.53t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.01% compared with 10.12% in the previous session and the average of 9.05% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 126.2156| 1.4| 15/9
Materials | 60.4270| 1.5| 40/8
Industrials | 37.2044| 1.1| 20/8
Health Care | -0.7653| -1.1| 0/3
Consumer Discretionary | -0.7713| -0.1| 4/4
Real Estate | -3.1654| -0.6| 2/17
Utilities | -5.1501| -0.5| 3/11
Communication Services | -6.9092| -1.0| 0/5
Information Technology | -7.9720| -0.3| 2/7
Consumer Staples | -11.4074| -1.1| 2/8
Energy | -17.7695| -0.4| 12/27
Scotiabank | 47.5100| 6.9| 312.9| 10.1
Bank of Montreal | 37.4000| 4.7| 63.0| 18.4
Canadian Pacific | Kansas | 24.5500| 3.7| 110.0| 1.4
Enbridge | -5.0350| -0.5| -24.2| 7.7
Constellation | Software | -10.7600| -1.7| 139.8| -1.2
Canadian Natural | Resources | -12.7600| -2.0| 125.5| -5.0
(MT Newswires):
A late rally brought up a narrow but fresh record close Tuesday for the Toronto Stock Exchange, which was buoyed by financial stocks after Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) and Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO) both beat forecasts with their fiscal third-quarter earnings earlier today, raising optimism their four peers can do the same over the next two days.
Despite mixed commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index finished up 169.94 points, or 0.6%, to 28,339.88.
The index struck its prior record close of 28,333.13 last Friday.
Sectors were mixed, with the biggest gainers being Financials, up 1.4%, and Industrials, up 1.1%.
Both Health Care and Telecoms dropped about 1%.
Of commodities, gold traded higher late afternoon Tuesday as the dollar fell and haven buying rose after U.S. President Donald Trump said he is firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook as he continues to pressure the central bank to lower interest rates, even as inflation continues to run hot.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $21.20 to US$3,438.70 per ounce, the highest since Aug.8.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower, falling for the first session in five on high supply and a move away from risk assets.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed $$1.55 to settle at US$63.25 per barrel, while October Brent crude was last seen down $1.51 to US$67.29.
The bank earnings season continues Wednesday with Royal Bank (RY.TO) at 6 a.m., eastern time, and National Bank (NA.TO) about 30 minutes later.
For RBC, National Bank is forecasting cash earnings per share (EPS) of $3.19 compared to a consensus $3.32.
The FactSet forecast is for $3.31.
Key themes National will be watching out for with RBC include whether the capital markets business benefits from a “booming” HY [high yield] market; whether whole/commercial loan losses have been “lumpy”; and whether the Canadian P&C segment remains an “under appreciated growth engine”.
The team at National Bank noted the consensus forecast for its own parent bank tomorrow is $2.69 per share.
Going into more detail on RBC, National Bank noted it was a “relative underperformer” during Q2 2025’s booming period for Capital Markets divisions.
Whereas peers generated nearly 40% PTPP [pre-tax pre-provision] growth, RY’s Capital Markets segment was flat. The bank’s trading revenues rose 21% Y/Y, compared to a peer average of around 50% Y/Y.
National noted management explained the divergence was a result of its over-indexing to rates and credit trading (which were down 8% Y/Y) compared to its relatively smaller equities/derivatives trading business (which was up nearly 75% Y/Y).
It also noted RY is investing in its other trading businesses and aims to achieve market share gains in the medium-term.
National said this quarter could be relatively stronger if the U.S.
High Yield market shows strength, where RY is a top 10 player.
It noted that average high yield spreads narrowed 20 bps during Q3 2025 compared to Q2.
On ‘lumpy” wholesale/commercial loan losses, during Q1 2025, RY reported $165 million impaired provision (and a +$1.5 bln addition to GIL) in the utility sector, which National Bank believes was Thames Water in the U.K.
It said another provision could be required as Thames water’s restructuring plans continue to evolve.
During Q2, National noted, RBC saw GIL additions in the U.S. CRE segment (via Capital Markets).
Additionally, the bank highlighted that the legacy HSBC commercial loan book is seeing some tariff related pressures and expects Canadian commercial loan losses to remain elevated in the near-term.
National Bank on RBC’s Canadian P&C segment, the bank’s largest segment, noted it has been a “strong performer” in 2025, with 12% PTPP growth during the first half of 2025 and 11% during Q2, both excluding the HSBC acquisition.
Key drivers, National said, include NIM expansion (+12 bps YTD) and strong operating leverage (+4% in Q2/25).
But it added: “While the segment overall has been impressive, what we believe is lacking is an update on HSBC Canada revenue synergies.”
According to National, while RBC has progressed well in terms of expense synergies (i.e., near 65% of the target run rate at the end of Q2), we have less clarity on how the acquisition has enhanced RY’s loan growth post-acquisition.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The dollar fell alongside longer- dated Treasuries as Donald Trump’s push to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook fueled concern about central bank independence and inflation risks.
Stocks bounced before Nvidia Corp.’s results.
While the moves were modest in listless summer trading, they underscored growing unease over political interference in monetary policy.
That could give Trump another chance to name someone to the Fed board as he repeatedly pressures officials to cut rates.
The slide in 30-year Treasuries followed losses in longer- dated debt from France and the UK, extending a drop that’s been driven by concerns about inflation and ballooning budget deficits.
A solid $69 billion sale of two-year notes added to gains in short-dated maturities.
The gap between five and 30- year yields is the widest since 2021.
While the dollar dropped just 0.2%, it underperformed most major currencies.
The S&P 500 added 0.4%, with Nvidia Corp. leading mega caps higher.
UnitedHealth Group Inc. slipped as an ongoing criminal probe was said to be broader than an inquiry into possible Medicare fraud.
Trump said he was prepared for a legal fight after he moved to oust Cook amid allegations she falsified mortgage documents.
The Fed, weighing in for the first time this week, said it would abide by any court decision in Cook’s legal challenge of her dismissal by Trump.
“Trump’s push to fire Cook has exacerbated concerns about the Fed’s independence,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
“While the price action in US rates has been largely contained to the recent range, many of the go-to hedges against an erosion of Fed independence outperformed on the news of Cook’s firing.”
Even as political headlines flare, investors remain anchored to a bullish market script: a likely September rate cut, resilient economic growth, and corporate earnings strong enough to keep equity sentiment afloat.
“An independent Fed remains the dominant framework,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V Research.
“There is no reason to go against that yet, but hedges are important.”
Read: New BIS Head Warns Against Questioning Central-Bank Independence “This issue likely to get kicked to the courts for resolution,” said Brad Bechtel at Jefferies.
“If it does go through, then clearly Trump has another seat to fill and that should then tip the board in his favor from a political alignment perspective.”
The Fed’s perceived independence from government whims is a bedrock assumption of US markets, and any change to that perception could weigh on US credit ratings.
S&P Global Ratings has recently warned that the nation’s credit rating could “come under pressure if political developments weigh on the strength of American institutions and the effectiveness of long-term policymaking or independence of the Federal Reserve.”
“We will continue to monitor rising political pressure on the Fed but expect its decision-making to remain guided by its mandate in the near term,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
More specifically, she noted Chair Jerome Powell’s recent dovish signals at Jackson Hole that have reinforced market expectations for US rate cuts starting in September.
“Looking further ahead, the risk of a more politicized Fed could increase over the next 6-12 months, particularly if partisanship also grows among regional Fed presidents,” she noted.
“The pathway for political uncertainty to hit the US economy runs through the bond and currency markets, and so far, the moves there have not been large, noted Don Rissmiller at Strategas.
“So, we will focus on the economic data, which have weakened but appear to be trying to carve out a bottom in key sectors,” he added.
US orders for business equipment increased in July by more than projected, suggesting companies are moving forward on investment plans as uncertainty around trade and tax policy gradually diminishes.
Meantime, consumer confidence fell slightly in August as Americans worried more about their prospects of finding a job.
“Consumers don’t appear afraid, but perhaps restrained,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“Corporate conference calls reveal what appears to be a resilient consumer, while retail sales echo similar reassurances.”
Fed Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said his forecast is for a modest adjustment in interest rates given what he expects will be little variation in economic activity over the remainder of the year.
As investors fret over signs of a slowing economy and lofty stock-market valuations, they are getting a bit of reassurance from Corporate America.
Among S&P 500 companies that adjusted their revenue views in the current quarter, 44% have raised them — the highest proportion since 2021, according to an analysis by Jefferies.
The share of outlook downgrades, at 14%, is the lowest in the firm’s data going back to 2015.
Meantime, volatility has vanished. Now hedge funds are betting the calm will last, shorting the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, at rates not seen in three years.
But such eerie calm and extreme positioning has historically foreshadowed a spike in turbulence and stock losses.
Hedge funds and large speculators were net short futures tied to the VIX by roughly 92,786 contracts in the week through Aug. 19 — a level last seen in September 2022, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

Corporate Highlights:
* The US Justice Department’s criminal division is digging into UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s prescription management services as well as how it reimburses its own doctors under an ongoing probe into the firm’s operations, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Apple Inc. plans to hold its big fall product launch on Sept. 9, when the company is expected to introduce an iPhone 17 lineup that includes a new skinnier version of its signature device.
* President Trump said that Meta Platforms Inc. is planning to spend $50 billion on its massive data center in rural Louisiana.
* US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested the government is looking at the defense sector and other industries for potential stakes in companies after a deal that saw the US obtain a 10% share in chipmaker Intel Corp.
* Trump said Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. should go back to its old logo after facing blowback for its new design.
* EchoStar Corp. has agreed to sell spectrum licenses to AT&T Inc. for about $23 billion in a deal that will help the company stay out of bankruptcy and fend off regulatory concerns about its airwave use.
* Eli Lilly & Co.’s experimental obesity pill helped patients lose 9.6% of their body weight in a trial that moves the company one step closer to a potential approval.
* Retail trading platform Interactive Brokers Group Inc. will be added to the S&P 500 later this week, replacing Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. on the closely watched gauge of US stocks.
* Kroger Co. is laying off nearly 1,000 corporate employees as the grocery-store operator moves to trim costs and simplify its business following its failed deal with Albertsons Cos.
* Kohl’s Corp. is asking some vendors for more time to settle invoices, according to people with knowledge of the situation, as the ailing retailer adjusts its payment strategy amid efforts to execute a turnaround plan.
* South Korean firms announced a flurry of deals with US businesses, including $50 billion in agreements with Boeing Co. and GE Aerospace, after the nations’ leaders met in-person for the first time in Washington on Monday.
* Bank of Montreal topped estimates on stronger-than-expected performance at its US division as the lender works to improve the business’s prospects and loan-loss provisions came in lower than forecast.
* Bank of Nova Scotia topped estimates after posting strong performance in its Canadian and international banking units and higher overall revenue as it pursues a turnaround plan.
* Orsted A/S raced to reassure investors over a proposed 60 billion-krone ($9.4 billion) share sale, saying it will go ahead as planned and cushion the beleaguered Danish wind giant against any worst-case scenario.
* Ping An Insurance (Group) Co.’s profit fell 8.8% in the first half as investment returns were dented by stock market volatility and lower interest rates during China’s economic slowdown.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.8%
* Nvidia rose 1.1%
* UnitedHealth fell 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1640
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3478
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 147.45 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $111,124.33
* Ether rose 5.6% to $4,597.34
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.25%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.74%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.90%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 3.68%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to $63.33 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $3,389.59 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Whenever you see a successful business, someone once made a courageous decision. -Peter. F. Drucker, 1909-2005.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

August 25, 1939: The Wizard of Oz is released.
On Aug. 25, 1944, Paris was liberated by Allied forces after four years of Nazi occupation and marking a pivotal moment in World War II.  Go to article.
August 25, 1966:  The Beatles play afternoon and evening concerts in 1966 at Seattle Center Coliseum after landing at Sea-Tac Airport on a chartered jet. About 8,200 fans at the afternoon concert hear the English rock band play 10 songs, including “Day Tripper,” “Yesterday,” “Nowhere Man” and “Paperback Writer.” The lyrics are barely audible over the crowd’s screams and shouts. The second show is sold out, and 14,382 fans attend the half-hour, 10-song set. It is the last live performance by all four Beatles in Seattle; the group breaks up in 1970. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org).

Leonard Bernstein, composer, b.1918.
Sean Connery, actor, b. 1930.
Elvis Costello, musician, b.1954.
Claudia Schiffer, model, b. 1970

SpaceX scrubs Starship launch attempt
Since its debut in January, the mega rocket has twice exploded over populated islands east of Florida.

Kilauea puts on ‘extraordinary show’
It was the Hawaiian volcano’s 31st eruption since December, and the photos are striking. 

New dinosaur species discovered
According to paleontologists, the creature had a distinctive sail-like structure running down its back.

British music fest apologizes to Irish folk band
The Mary Wallopers claim they were muted during their set for waving a flag.

Kirsten Dunst: Everyone messes up my name
Nope, it’s not KER-sten.

Deep-sea creatures find livestream fame  
This viral scientific mission even included a plump starfish resembling a beloved cartoon character.

What was the first human species?

All humans around today are Homo sapiens — modern humans who emerged at least 300,000 years ago. However, many Homo species came before, shaping who we are today. But what species was the first? The answer, perhaps unsurprisingly, is complicated. Read more.

Rocket-like jellyfish, regal Komodo dragon and harrowing whale rescue — see the stunning Ocean Photographer of the Year 2025 finalists.
The finalists for the Ocean Photographer of the Year 2025 competition were announced this week, featuring synchronized swimming whales, schools of fish swirling around coral outcrops, jellyfish that look like UFOs, and a Komodo dragon that’s a little too close for comfort.   See more.

First Americans had Denisovan DNA

The first people to populate the Americas had DNA from Neanderthals and Denisovans, a new study has revealed. The genes likely came from Denisovans who mated with Neanderthals, who then passed them onto modern humans when they mated with them in turn.
This sliver of genetic material isn’t just an intriguing relic, it could have been key to humans’ expansion across the continent by offering them a mutational arsenal to fight off the new pathogens they encountered. Read more.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Colombo, Sri Lanka
People take part in the international kite festival
Photograph: Ishara S Kodikara/AFP/Getty Images

London, UK
People celebrate J’ouvert, meaning ‘daybreak’ or ‘opening of the day’ in French Creole, at the start of Notting Hill carnival
Photograph: Yui Mok/PA

Jakarta, Indonesia
Cyclists and environmental activists take part in an event calling for the protection of orangutans, during a car-free day in the city
Photograph: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for Aug 25^th,2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45282.47	-349.27
		-0.77%
S&P 500	6439.32	-27.59
		-0.43%
NASDAQ	21449.29	-47.25
		-0.22%
TSX	28169.94	-163.19
		-0.58%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	42807.82	+174.53
		+0.41%
HANG SENG	25829.91	+490.77
		+1.94%
SENSEX	81635.91	+329.06
		+0.40%
FTSE 100*	9321.40	+12.20
		+0.13%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.472	3.435
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.877	3.843
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2751	4.2537
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8897	4.8755

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7220	0.7230
US $	1.3850	1.3838

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6129	0.6200
US $	1.1646	0.8586

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3334.25	3338.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.30	64.06

Market Commentary:
When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. -Charles Goodhart, b.1936.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.6% at 28,169.94 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.9% on Aug.
1 and follows the previous session’s increase of 1%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 0.9%.
Pason Systems Inc. had the largest drop, falling 2.9%.
Today, 153 of 211 shares fell, while 49 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 3.3%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on Aug. 22, 2025 and 26.7% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 2.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.56t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.12% compared with 10.00% in the previous session and the average of 8.86% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -82.4210| -0.9| 2/22
Industrials | -43.3786| -1.3| 1/28
Information Technology | -25.1404| -0.9| 1/9
Utilities | -4.9460| -0.5| 2/11
Consumer Discretionary | -3.3860| -0.4| 2/7
Real Estate | -2.5553| -0.5| 2/15
Communication Services | -2.0267| -0.3| 2/3
Health Care | -0.9948| -1.4| 0/3
Consumer Staples | 0.0721| 0.0| 4/6
Energy | 0.2773| 0.0| 13/24
Materials | 1.3138| 0.0| 20/25
RBC | -17.5200| -0.9| -47.0| 9.0
Shopify | -14.0700| -0.8| -41.0| 27.4
Brookfield Corp | -11.9500| -1.3| -24.2| 8.9
Cenovus | 4.1970| 2.1| 53.6| 6.2
Celestica | 4.7400| 2.2| -48.7| 101.5
Suncor | 5.8430| 1.2| 107.1| 9.1
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell Monday, as investors took on some profits after Friday’s record close ahead of tomorrow’s start of the third-quarter earnings season for Canada’s big banks, which could offer clues on the health of the Canadian economy and consumers.
Despite steady to improved commodity prices, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 163.19 points, or 0.6% from Friday’s record to 28,169.94 with most sectors lower, led by Health Care. down 1.5%, and Industrials, down 1.25%, while Battery Metals Index was up 3.5%.
Of commodities, gold was mostly steady late afternoon on Monday as the dollar and yields rose after a Friday drop as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled an interest-rate cut is coming.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $7.50 to US$3,411.00 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose, climbing for a fourth session as demand remains strong in the final week of the U.S. driving season and investors move to add risk after the chair of the Federal Reserve on Friday signaled an interest-rate cut is likely coming. WTI crude oil for October delivery closed up $1.14 to settle at US$64.80 per barrel, while October Brent oil was last seen up $1.22 to US$68.95.
The Canadian banks begin reporting their fiscal third-quarter results on Tuesday, starting with Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO, BMO) and Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO. BNS).
As background to that, BMO Capital Markets Senior Economist Shelly Kaushik noted Canadian retail sales jumped 1.5% in June, marking a “decent turnaround” from May’s 1.2% decline. Kaushik noted the June pace matched the increase in volume terms, leaving the three-month gain near 3% annualized.
“Not bad for a quarter that likely captured the worst of the economic hit from trade uncertainty.” “To be sure,” Kaushik said, “decent consumer spending in both goods and services likely provided some offset for a deeply negative print in net exports.
Still, we don’t think it’ll be enough to avoid a real GDP contraction in Q2 when that report is released at the end of the week.”
“As mentioned, though,” Kaushik added, “this quarter will hopefully be the worst of it for the economy.
It’s still early, but we’re forecasting real GDP to be little changed in Q3, implying a recession will be narrowly avoided.
Indeed, the first look at July pointed to a 0.8% nominal decline in retail sales.”
On Tuesday’s earnings for BMO, National Bank in a preview note published earlier this month forecast cash earnings per share (EPS) of $2.96 compared to a consensus $2.95 and highlighted as key themes to look out for: a continuation of credit performance turnaround; U.S. loan growth “still stagnating”; and the bank’s potential to shed more assets.
FactSet is forecasting $2.97 versus $2.64 a year ago.
Then for Scotiabank, National Bank forecast cash EPS of $1.76 compared to $1.72 consensus estimate.
It will be looking for signs of: the corporate segment driving growth this year; the Canadian P&C performance “lagging” the group; and the “de-banking process still underway”.
FactSet is forecasting $1.73 versus $1.63.
On BMO’s credit performance turnaround should continue, National Bank noted that after negatively surprising on credit performance during fiscal 2024 (i.e., PCLs were about 60% above beginning of year consensus), BMO has delivered a turnaround in 2025. Impaired PCLs have declined each quarter from the Q4 2024 peak.
The bank signaled caution during Q2 2025, as reflected in a 17 bps performing PCL ratio.
Moreover, management suggested that tariff uncertainty could push the bank’s impaired PCL ratio into the low 50s, or above its high 40s guidance.
In National Bank’s view, a deviation from guidance is unlikely this quarter.
National noted that the bank’s U.S. regulatory filings indicated that BMO’s U.S. P&C credit performance (i.e., the primary source of 2024’s excess loan losses) had improved sequentially during calendar Q2 2025.
National Bank noted while BMO’s credit turnaround has been a positive development, stagnant commercial loan growth in the United States has not.
In National’s view, a revival of loan growth in this segment is an important catalyst for the stock, considering balances have been flat/declining since Q2 2023, when the Bank of the West (BotW) acquisition closed.
If anything, National said, this trend does little to indicate any progress on BotW revenue synergies.
“Unfortunately,” National added, it does not appear as though BMO will turn around volume growth in the U.S. P&C segment this quarter”.
It noted BMO’s calendar Q2 2025 Call Report showed that end of period commercial loans were down 2% Q/Q.
On BMO potentially looking to shed more assets. National Bank noted media reports suggest that BMO could be selling its Transportation Finance business, originally acquired as GE Transportation Finance in 2015.
The business has US$11 billion of assets and press reports indicate a potential sale price of approximately US$1 billion.
That figure would be lower than what BMO paid to acquire the business in 2015, which National estimates as a combination of capital required to back RWAs (near US$800 million) and goodwill & intangibles (near US$350 mln).
However, National said, since BMO converted the portfolio to AIRB models that reduced its capital intensity, the comparison isn’t apples to apples.
“We do not know how much profit the business generates, though it does create PCL volatility from time to time,” National added, noting there was a six-quarter stretch between Q4 2016 and Q1 2018 that transportation loans generated a cumulative $160 million of provisions. More recently, National noted, BMO has reported nearly $350 million of cumulative transportation sector losses since Q1 2024, a period of challenging credit performance in this category that has affected many banks.
“Overall,” National said, “if a sale is announced it would most likely be part of BMO’s balance sheet optimization strategy, which aims to exit sub-scale and/or below target ROE businesses.”
Other examples it cited include the exit of the Canadian and U.S. consumer auto finance business, which was announced in September 2023 and the sale of the RV Finance loan portfolio in December 2023.
Meanwhile, on Scotiabank and its corporate segment driving growth this year.
National Bank noted lower rates have been a tailwind for BNS’ Corporate segment.
Lower funding costs have resulted in segment NII [net interest income] improving nearly 75% during the first half of 2025, culminating in a segment loss of $80 million during Q2, compared to a peak quarterly loss of $283 million during Q4 2023.
National Bank said this improvement, which also includes the impact of BNS’ 15% share of KEY earnings, should explain virtually all of BNS’s 2025 earnings growth.
Based on the assumption of the segment achieving break-even status by Q4 2025, National estimates that Corporate should contribute 30% of consensus 2026 estimated EPS growth.
The remaining 70% (or 8% stand-alone EPS growth Y/Y) will rely on improved performance in BNS’ other segments, National added.
National Bank noted BNS’ Canadian P&C segment delivered 2% PTPP [Pre-Tax Pre-Provision] earnings growth during first half 2025 (vs. 8% peer average), including negative 1% during Q2 25 (vs. 6% peer average).
It said performance has been weighed down by several factors.
For one, commercial loan growth has been negligible (just 1% Y/Y in Q2 and down 2% YTD), well below peers at 9% Y/Y growth (and +5% YTD), which reflects BMO’s de-banking strategy.
It added card loans tell a similar story, with BNS’ balances down 3% YTD vs. peers flat.
Secondly, National said, the segment has seen 5 bps of NIM compression YTD, in contrast to peers at +6 bps on average.
The NIM compression is primarily due to deposit margins, along with slower growth in higher yielding loan categories, National added.
National noted that since its 2023 Investor Day, BNS has been engaging in the process of “de-banking”, which entails running-off certain lending relationships.
It said one motivation was to mitigate the impact of the Basel III output floor, which has faded as a concern given that OSFI postponed further increases to this regulatory capital headwind on February 12, 2025.
Separately, it added, BNS is also re-evaluating its banking relationships and trimming those that do not meet ROE targets.
National said we’ve seen the impact mainly on Corporate loans in the capital markets segment, where balances are down 27% from Q2 2023 peak levels.
It added we’ve also seen the impact in the International Banking segment, with commercial balances down 13% from Q2 2023 peak levels.
The bank has stated that it expects to resume balance sheet growth during fiscal 2026, National noted.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally that put stocks on the brink of all- time highs sputtered and bond yields rose as euphoria around Federal Reserve rate cuts eased ahead of a key inflation reading.
While Jerome Powell on Friday signaled a September rate cut is likely on the way amid downside risks to jobs, doubts over the pace of those reductions lingered on Wall Street.
In addition to officials remaining divided, traders are bracing for a not-so-friendly price reading later this week.
Policymakers are grappling with inflation that’s still above their 2% goal — and rising — and a labor market that’s showing signs of weakness.
That unnerving reality, which pulls policy in opposite directions, is made worse by a high degree of uncertainty about how each of those factors will evolve over the coming months.
The Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation probably ticked higher last month, with the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rising 2.9% from a year ago.
That would be fastest annual pace in five months.
“Now the discussion will likely turn to how aggressive the Fed may be,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“Signs of a slowing labor market currently appear to be outweighing inflation concerns, but the Fed hasn’t abandoned its 2% target.”
Almost 400 shares in the S&P 500 fell, with the gauge dropping 0.4%.
Nvidia Corp. paced gains in mega caps ahead of its results.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose three basis points to 4.28%.
The dollar climbed.
“Today’s trading lacks catalysts, which explains much of the muted sentiment throughout the indices, although rate- sensitive, cyclically oriented areas are underperforming,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
“Part of that sluggishness results from traders reevaluating Chair Powell’s dovishness.”
Money markets are pricing in roughly 80% odds of a Fed rate cut in September, and a total of two reductions by the end of the year.
“While folks are generally in consensus about a September cut, October and December are still live, data-dependent meetings,” Torres noted.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the repricing of a September rate cut after Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday was “not excessive.”
“If we are right, the focus shifts to what happens after September,” Guha said.
“If the next set of labor data is not too bad, we think the Fed will begin to frame out the cautious recalibration cut, while seeking to contain expectations of ‘too much too soon’.”
Dovish or Hawkish Cut?
“While we still see the Fed cutting in September, we now have to figure out whether it will be a ‘dovish cut’ or a ‘hawkish cut’,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“We don’t want one to think that inflation is not that important, but the real unknown risk to the economy is the employment situation.”
The exact path forward, particularly the pace of rate cuts, is still up for debate as Fed officials hold diverging views on the potential impact of tariffs and the overall state of the economy, according to Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds at Glenmede.
“Upcoming leadership changes at the Fed may mark a dovish shift over the long-term, with most candidates under consideration for chair broadly viewed as more accommodative than Powell,” they said.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett indicated President Donald Trump’s decision on who should succeed Powell is months away.
His term as Fed chair is set to expire in May.
“We expect Powell to advocate for easing at the September meeting unless incoming data, such as a strong August labor report or higher-than-expected inflation, provide reason to stay on hold,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Against this backdrop, we anticipate four quarter- point rate cuts through January 2026, starting in September.”
Investors will also monitor comments from US policymakers at public events this week to gauge their appetite for a September rate cut, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller scheduled to speak on Thursday.
Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said money markets could face temporary pressures around quarter-end next month, though the US central bank still has room to continue reducing its balance sheet.
“We also look for Fedspeak this week to generally echo Powell’s view that the Fed can ease in September on shifting concerns towards the labor market,” said Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir at TD Securities.
At Glenmede, the strategists noted that resuming the rate cut cycle will likely be a tailwind for bonds.
Fixed income may offer upside potential for investors as yields across major fixed income categories remain near fair value.
“Small caps may stand to benefit most from easing, with more than half of their debt charging floating rate interest,” they said.
“Lower interest expenses could notably lift earnings, potentially setting the stage for a small cap comeback into year-end.”
Aside from the macro picture, the next big test for the stock market will be a read on what’s been driving gains for the past few years: artificial-intelligence euphoria.
Nvidia Corp. – the last of the “Magnificent Seven” to report earnings – is due to unveil its results Wednesday after the close.
Traders are hoping it can soothe fears about AI spending and effectively confirm that the stock market’s latest rally isn’t just a technology bubble.
“Unless we get some sort of major UFO (Unforeseen Occurrence), the most important development of this week will be the earnings report and guidance out of Nvidia,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“Those earnings will be good. The only question will be whether they’re good enough to push the stock higher after almost doubling over the past 4-5 months,” he added.
Nvidia’s size, it’s the biggest weight in the S&P 500 at almost 8%, and its position at the center of AI development have made it a bellwether of the broader market.
The tech giant’s chips are everywhere, 40% of its revenue comes from Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. — all are among the Top 10 weightings in the S&P 500.
Through several measures, big tech has become very influential, and that level of concentration suggests these stocks don’t just influence the market, but they increasingly drive the overall direction of travel, noted Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“In isolation, that could be a caution flag,” he said. “We believe big tech’s market cap heft and elevated valuations today are supported by unusually strong profitability and cash flow generation relative to almost every other corner of the market.”
Even so, elevated expectations raise the bar. “And the margin for error is shrinking,” he said.
“These dynamics could create near-term air pockets from time to time. However, the same forces that pushed these mega-cap tech companies to the top of the S&P 500 (e.g., superior growth, superior margins, and superior cash flow generation) continue.
The onus now is on execution.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Elon Musk accused Apple Inc. and OpenAI in a lawsuit of unfairly favoring the artificial intelligence app across iPhones and thwarting competition for other chatbot makers.
* Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. isn’t in the market for a deal to buy a competing railroad.
** Buffett told CNBC on Monday that he met with the CSX Corp. chief executive officer earlier this month to discuss cooperation, while indicating he wouldn’t make a bid for CSX. A Berkshire spokesperson confirmed the comments.
* KPop Demon Hunters, an animated musical released by Netflix Inc., topped the US and Canadian box office during its two-day theatrical debut, a rare win at theaters for the streaming giant, which usually avoids chasing box office revenue for its original movies.
* Wayfair Inc. and RH tumbled on Monday as President Donald Trump said late Friday the US is conducting a “major Tariff Investigation on Furniture coming into the United States,” setting the stage for industry-specific levies.
* Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. agreed to buy JDE Peet’s NV for €15.7 billion ($18.4 billion) to bolster its struggling coffee business before kicking off a split of its operations.
* Thoma Bravo has agreed to buy Verint Systems Inc. for $1.23 billion in cash, just days after announcing a $12.3 billion takeover of Dayforce Inc.
* Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital and Jump Crypto are in talks with potential backers about raising roughly $1 billion to accumulate Solana, in what would be the largest treasury dedicated to the digital token.
* Webull Corp. will let US customers buy and sell cryptocurrencies on its trading platform again after dropping the service in 2023 when it was trying to go public.
* AbbVie Inc. agreed to buy an experimental depression treatment from Gilgamesh Pharmaceuticals Inc. for up to $1.2 billion in a deal that highlights the drug industry’s growing interest in next-generation psychedelic compounds.
* Orsted A/S sank after the Trump administration blocked construction of an almost-finished offshore wind farm, throwing a wrench into a planned 60 billion kroner ($9.4 billion) share sale backed by the government.
* The Pinault family has reached out to potential buyers of Puma SE after the German sports brand lost about half of its market value in the past year, according to people familiar with the matter.
* US auto safety regulators are investigating the risk of potential engine failures in about 1.4 million vehicles made by Honda Motor Co.
* PDD Holdings Inc. posted better-than-expected results after China’s government ramped up stimulus to galvanize consumers and offset the economic fallout from US tariffs.
What Bloomberg strategists say…
“The mix of underperformers in Monday’s session is geared toward consumer sectors that are highly sensitive to inflation, which could stand in the way of cuts even after Powell tilted the emphasis onto a weakening labor market.”
— Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.9% to $1.1610
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3454
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 147.82 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2% to $110,537.51
* Ether fell 7.6% to $4,421.36
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.76%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.69%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.73%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.89%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.8% to $64.78 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,365.38 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Life is a long lesson in humility. –James M. Barrie, 1860-1937.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
August 22, 1865: William Sheppard is granted a US Patent for liquid soap, paving the way for modern hygiene products.
August 22, 1902: President Theodore Roosevelt became the first U.S. chief executive to ride in an automobile, an electric car, in Hartford, Conn. Go to article.
August 22, 1942: Battle of Stalingrad.

Claude Debussy, composer, b.1862.
Henri Cartier-Bresson, photographer, b. 1908.
John Lee Hooker, blues singer, b. 1915.

Your household gadgets could soon be battery-free — scientists create tiny solar cells that can be powered by indoor light

Researchers said the breakthrough “paves the way for electronics powered by the ambient light already present in our lives.” Read More.

The first Americans had Denisovan DNA. And it may have helped them survive.

People with Indigenous American ancestry carry Denisovan genes that Neanderthals passed on when they mated with modern humans. Read More.

‘This technology is possible today’: Nuclear waste could be future power source and increase access to a rare fuel

One physicist says his design to use nuclear waste as fuel for nuclear fusion could help the U.S. be a leader in the fusion economy.  Read More.

James Webb telescope reveals that asteroids Bennu and Ryugu may be parts of the same gigantic space rock

New data from the James Webb telescope suggests that Bennu and Ryugu — two asteroids recently visited by sample-return missions — are both fragments of a single massive “parent.” Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Milan, Italy
A canoeist competes during a hailstorm at the canoe sprint world championships in Milan
Photograph: Zsolt Czeglédi/EPA

Barcelona, Spain
The Castellers de la Vila de Gràcia build the base for a human tower – or castell – during the Gràcia street festival. The Catalan tradition originated in the 18th century but this particular team began in the 1990s
Photograph: Matthias Oesterle/Shutterstock

Diyarbakir, Turkey
Tomatoes are salted and left under the sun from early morning under scorching temperatures until sunset to ensure natural drying
Photograph: Mustafa Kilic/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for Aug 22^nd,2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45631.74	+846.24
		+1.86%
S&P 500	6466.91	+96.74
		+1.52%
NASDAQ	21496.54	+396.23
		+1.88%
TSX	28333.13	+277.70
		+0.99%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	42633.29	+23.12
		+0.05%
HANG SENG	25339.14	+234.53
		+0.93%
SENSEX	81306.85	-693.86
		-0.85%
FTSE 100*	9321.40	+12.20
		+0.13%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.435	3.479
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.843	3.878
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2537	4.3277
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8755	4.9172

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7230	0.7190
US $	1.3838	1.3908

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6167	0.6253
US $	1.1724	0.8529

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3338.30	3344.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	64.06	63.92

Market Commentary:
To succeed, stay out in front of change. –Sam Walton, 1918-1992.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the thirdday, climbing 1%, or 277.7 to 28,333.13 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.3% on Aug. 6.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 7 of 11 sectors gained; 167 of 211 shares rose, while 43 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.4%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 12.0%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 3.9%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.5%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 on a trailing basis and 17.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.51t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.00% compared with 9.73% in the previous session and the average of 8.47% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 84.6754| 3.0| 9/1
Financials | 71.4840| 0.8| 18/6
Energy | 58.1340| 1.3| 34/6
Materials | 55.7841| 1.4| 47/1
Industrials | 27.3924| 0.8| 23/6
Real Estate | 6.0645| 1.2| 18/1
Consumer Discretionary | 0.7417| 0.1| 7/2
Health Care | -0.2334| -0.3| 0/3
Utilities | -1.4804| -0.1| 7/6
Communication Services | -4.6807| -0.7| 2/3
Consumer Staples | -20.1850| -1.9| 2/8
Shopify | 54.7400| 3.4| 38.7| 28.5
Brookfield Corp | 20.8800| 2.3| 33.9| 10.3
Canadian Natural | Resources | 16.5700| 2.7| 196.9| -3.0
Waste Connections | -6.9440| -1.5| 2.7| 3.6
Dollarama | -7.1210| -1.9| 45.7| 37.8
Loblaw | -7.4360| -3.2| 224.3| 20.3
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange was up for a third-straight day and its second-straight record close on Friday as Canada removed counter tariffs on U.S. goods in a move to deflate trade tensions between the two nations, while BMO Economics is now calling for a total of three interest-rate cuts by next spring.
Also boosted by elevated commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index surged 277.70 points, or 1%, to a record finish of 28,333.13, with most sectors higher.
The biggest gainers were Base Metals and Battery Metals, both up 3%, Info Tech, up 2.6% and Energy, up 2.3%.
Going into Friday’s session, month to date the TSX was up 2.92% and year to date was up 3327.49 points or 13.46%, according to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet.
Among individual stocks, story of the day came from the resources sector with Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) agreeing to acquire MEG Energy (MEG.TO) in a cash, stock and assumed-debt deal valued at $7.9 billion.
With this move, Cenovus appears to have trumped a prior unsolicited bid for MEG from Strathcona Resources (SCR.TO).
Cenovus closed up 7.1%, MEG rose 1.2%, and Strathcona rose 0.2%.
National Bank has upgraded Cenovus to Outperform from Sector Perform, with its Target raised to $28.00 from $24.00.
On the economics front, Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, in his weekly ‘Talking Points’ note noted Canada is removing a long list of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.
Basically, Porter said, the only items still facing Canadian tariffs will be metals and some autos, largely mirroring U.S. measures.
Porter noted this happened a day after the first conversation between Prime Minister Carney and President Trump in weeks, and he said it is an important step.
According to Porter, the direct implications for the Canadian economy are that it will: take some pressure off specific CPI items (e.g., groceries, sporting equipment), which could help shave core inflation back below 3%, and also that it will further cut into expected tariff revenues.
Porter recalled that the Liberal election platform had been based on annual tariff revenues of $20 billion.
“We are now looking at a fraction of that amount, introducing yet more pressure on the fiscal outlook.”
Porter said: “Our longstanding view has been that the inflation threat from the trade war was a tad overblown, for Canada and for the U.S., albeit for different reasons.
For the States, its unrivalled market power means that the Administration is not fully offside for asserting that companies will ultimately eat some of the tariffs.
For Canada, the two big drivers of potential trade war inflation have vapourized, the retaliatory tariffs, which weren’t that fierce to begin with, have been further declawed; and the Canadian dollar is 3%-to-4% stronger than when the trade war first erupted,
not weaker, even with its recent sag.”
According to Porter, the “back down” on Canadian retaliation should, thus, fully quiet the talk of trade war led inflation, alongside this week’s tempered CPI reading for July.
He noted the latter revealed that the three-month core inflation trend eased to 2.4%, its first trip below 3% since last fall.
Porter said this opens the door to further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.
He noted while a move in September remains a bit of a long shot, markets peg the odds at about 1 in 3, a move in October is seen as likely, and there could be more to come.
Porter added: “We continue to lean to the low side, calling for a total of three cuts by next spring, which would take rates just a touch below the low end of neutral.
But given the more benign trade-related inflation risks and a softening job market, we believe that below neutral would ultimately be entirely appropriate.”
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher on Friday, rising for a third day on high summer demand even as supply is on the rise.
WTI crude for October delivery closed up $0.14 to settle at US$63.66 per barrel, while October Brent oil was last seen up $0.16 to US$67.83.
Gold prices were up late afternoon Friday as the dollar fell sharply following a dovish speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicating the central bank is ready to begin lowering interest rates again.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $36.00 to US$3,417.60 per ounce, sticking within the narrow range it has mostly traded within since April.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute noted investors have read in a lowering of U.S. interest rates after Powell’s speech.
On implications for investors, and of note for those who invest across North America, WFII said: “We believe that surprises, either from policy or from economic data, could trigger episodic periods of volatility, especially as the economy slows.
It added: “We favor extending tactical positioning in areas that we believe should balance opportunity against short-term volatility risk.”
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks surged, reversing a week of losses and sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record, and bond yields fell as surprisingly dovish comments by Jerome Powell convinced investors that rate cuts are all but guaranteed.
By shifting focus toward risks in the jobs market, the Federal Reserve chief signaled it may not wait for perfect inflation before slashing rates.
That was enough to trigger a broad rally that drove the S&P 500 up the most since May as investors piled into shares that tend to do well amid lower borrowing costs.
All tech mega caps gained, a measure of small firms jumped 4% and banks hit all- time highs.
The crypto world roared.
As traders boosted wagers on a September Fed move, treasuries climbed across the curve, with two-year yields sinking 10 basis points.
A dollar gauge slid about 1%.
“The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance,” Powell said Friday.
“Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, his speech was much more dovish than the market feared.
“Powell has thrown the door wide open to a September cut with his Jackson Hole speech that sends a clear, strong signal the Fed is on track to reduce rates by 25 basis points at that meeting,” he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* President Donald Trump said Intel Corp. had agreed to give the US government a 10% equity stake in the beleaguered chipmaker, with a formal announcement expected on Friday, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Apple Inc. is in early discussions about using Google Gemini to power a revamped version of the Siri voice assistant, marking a key potential step toward outsourcing more of its artificial intelligence technology.
* Nvidia Corp. has instructed component suppliers including Samsung Electronics Co. and Amkor Technology Inc. to stop production related to the H20 AI chip, the Information reported, citing unidentified sources.
* Meta Platforms Inc. has agreed to a deal worth at least $10 billion with Alphabet Inc.’s Google for cloud computing services, according to people familiar with the matter, part of the social media giant’s spending spree on artificial intelligence.
** Meta is hiring another key Apple AI executive, even as the social networking company prepares to slow its recruitment, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Boeing Co. and union leaders representing striking workers at its St. Louis-area defense factories will hold their first formal talks next week as they aim to end a three-week long impasse.
* Visa Inc. shut its open-banking business in the US amid regulatory uncertainty about consumer-data rights and the prospect of higher fees for customer information, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Discount-retailer Ross Stores Inc. projected inflation will push more consumers to seek its off-price wares and deliver sales growth above expectations.
* Cenovus Energy Inc. agreed to buy MEG Energy Corp. for C$6.93 billion ($5 billion), topping a rival offer from Strathcona Resources Ltd. in a bid to boost its position among Canada’s largest oil producers.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.9%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 3.9%
* KBW Bank Index rose 3.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%
* The euro rose 1% to $1.1720
* The British pound rose 0.8% to $1.3518
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 146.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.8% to $116,657.37
* Ether rose 14% to $4,835.1
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.26%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.69%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined 10 basis points to 3.69%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.88%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $63.82 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,372.48 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The secret of getting ahead is getting started. —Mark Twain, 1935-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

August 21, 1959: Hawaii becomes the 50^th state of the United States, expanding the nation into the Pacific.
August 21, 1991: A hardline coup against Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev collapsed in the face of a popular uprising led by Russian federation President Boris Yeltsin. Go to article

1983: Benigno Aquino, assassinated.

Aubrey Beardsley, artist, b. 1872
Count Basie, bandleader, b.1904.
Wilt Chamberlain, basketball player, b.1936.

Where can you see the Sept. 7 ‘blood moon’ total lunar eclipse?

The second and final ‘blood moon’ total lunar eclipse of 2025 is coming on the night of Sept. 7-8. Here’s where the celestial spectacle will be visible — and how to watch it if
you’re not in the path. Read More.

6,300 years ago, dozens of people were murdered in grisly victory celebrations in France

More than 6,000 years ago, invaders were captured in northeastern France before being tortured and mutilated. Read More.

Scientists think they detected the first known triple black hole system in the universe — and then watched it die

Chinese astronomers have spotted a hidden supermassive black hole in the background of a peculiar gravitational wave event from a black hole merger, hinting that all three singularities were locked in a never-before-seen triple system. Read More.

Japanese power breakthrough could be ‘step toward a fully wireless society’

Japanese researchers employed machine learning to develop a wireless power transfer system that remains stable under any load. Read More.

Ari Shapiro is leaving NPR
What does the popular “All Things Considered” host plan to do next? He’s going on tour.

‘Dawson’s Creek’ cast to reunite
The event will support F Cancer and the hit TV show’s star, James Van Der Beek, who was diagnosed with colorectal cancer last November.

McDonald’s is cutting prices
The move comes just a few weeks after the CEO admitted that the company’s combo menu offerings had gotten too expensive.

Quentin Tarantino reveals which movie is his best
It’s probably not the one you’d expect.

9:  That’s how many home runs the New York Yankees hit during their 13-3 win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday. This makes the Bronx Bombers the first franchise in Major League Baseball history to record two games with nine homers in the same season or otherwise.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bhaktapur, Nepal
Newar Buddhist devotees worship Dipankara Buddha during the Panchadaan festival. Known as the festival of five summer gifts, Panchadaan is a sacred ritual in which devotees honour Dipankara Buddha and offer five traditional alms in monastic courtyards and community squares
Photograph: Safal Prakash Shrestha/Zuma Press/Shutterstock

Lagoon Nebula, Sagittarius
An image composed by the integration of four hours of photographic exposures shows Messier 8, also known as the Lagoon Nebula, taken from La Hayuela, Cantabria, Spain. Messier 8 is a giant emission nebula located in the constellation Sagittarius, 5,000 light years away
Photograph: Pedro Puente Hoyos/EPA

Alexandria, Egypt
A crane pulls an artefact from the water in Abu Qir Bay as part of work to recover sunken antiquities
Photograph: Khaled Desouki/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for Aug 21^th,2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44785.50	-152.81
		-0.34%
S&P 500	6370.17	-25.61
		-0.40%
NASDAQ	21100.31	-72.55
		-0.34%
TSX	28055.43	+176.67
		+0.63%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	42610.17	-278.38
		-0.65%
HANG SENG	25104.61	-61.33
		-0.24%
SENSEX	82000.71	+142.87
		+0.17%
FTSE 100*	9309.20	+21.06
		+0.23%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.479	3.446
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.878	3.855
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3277	4.2907
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9172	4.8948

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7190	0.7208
US $	1.3908	1.3873

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6147	0.6193
US $	1.1611	0.8612

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3344.65	3334.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.92	62.35

Market Commentary:
Natural gas is better distributed than any other fuel in the United States.  It’s down every street and up every alley. -Thomas Boone Pickens, 1928-2019.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.6%, or 176.67 to 28,055.43 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.3% on Aug. 6.
Barrick Mining Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.0%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 10.4%.
Today, 160 of 211 shares rose, while 48 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.9%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.5%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0% below its 52-week high on Aug. 13, 2025 and 26.2% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.48t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.73% compared with 9.64% in the previous session and the average of 8.30% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 84.2136| 2.1| 47/1
Energy | 42.2823| 1.0| 35/5
Financials | 23.6213| 0.3| 18/6
Information Technology | 8.8621| 0.3| 7/3
Industrials | 7.7956| 0.2| 20/9
Consumer Discretionary | 5.6311| 0.6| 6/3
Utilities | 3.0029| 0.3| 9/4
Communication Services | 2.9543| 0.4| 5/0
Health Care | -0.2168| -0.3| 0/2
Consumer Staples | -0.7061| -0.1| 5/4
Real Estate | -0.7500| -0.1| 8/11
Barrick Mining | 12.4000| 3.0| 159.4| 59.3
Canadian Natural | Resources | 12.3200| 2.0| 182.8| -5.5
Constellation | Software | 10.7100| 1.8| 5.7| -0.2
TC Energy | -2.4010| -0.5| 11.4| 6.9
Shopify | -2.8140| -0.2| -34.0| 24.3
Canadian Pacific | Kansas | -8.0090| -1.2| -7.2| -2.1
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange ran up to a fresh record high Thursday, buoyed by news that Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump had a “productive and wide-ranging conversation”, according to a readout from the PM’s Office.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 176.67 points, or 0.6%, to 28,055.43, beating the prior record close of 27,993.43 struck on August 13.
Most sectors were higher, led by Energy, up near 1.7%, and Base Metals, up 1.5%.
Health Care was down near 0.4%.
Among individual stocks, Air Canada (AC.TO) said late afternoon it continues to ramp up its operations after a spat with a related union and the company expects to deliver close to its full network schedule by Friday, August 22.
Its shares closed up $0.24 to $19.35.
In relation to Carney and Trump talks, the pair reportedly discussed trade and “a new economic and security relationship.”
They also discussed “long-term peace” in Ukraine and Europe and agreed to talk again soon.
The talks come as Trump has introduced 35% duties on Canadian imports, even if most goods are protected under an existing free trade deal between the two nations.
Canada is also subject to tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper and automobiles.
But it has also introduced retaliatory tariffs of its own on U.S. imports.
Of commodities, gold futures edged lower late afternoon Thursday as treasury yields and the dollar rose today on further weak economic data, firming expectations the Federal Reserve will move to cut interest rates next month, though traders are awaiting a Friday speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for clearer signals on the central bank’s intentions.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $5.20 to US$3,383.30 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate oil closed higher for a second day following a day-prior report showing a larger than expected drop in U.S. inventories as summer demand continues to run hot, while fading hopes for a ceasefire in Russia’s war on Ukraine that would see sanctions on Russian exports eased also offered support.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $0.81 to settle at US$63.52 per barrel, while October Brent crude was last seen up $0.94 to US$67.78.
On commodities and broader stock markets, Rosenberg Research published a note entitled ‘Market Implications from a Slumping U.S.
Dollar’ in which it said a secular dollar bear market will have global implications across asset classes.
Among highlights, the research noted the trade-weighted U.S. dollar index has “recently broken below long-term support trendlines”, with “risk of morphing from a cyclical correction to a secular bear market”.
The research sees commodities, which are priced in U.S. dollars, as one area with significant negative correlations that stands to profit.
It noted the overall CRB index, a commodity index calculated based on the prices of commodity futures, “commands a strong negative correlation” between asset class and the trade weighted dollar index of -0.70, broadly based across underlying components such as copper (-0.64; base metals more broadly), silver (-0.60), WTI crude (-0.59), and gold (-0.50).
Of interest to those who invest across North America, at the U.S. equity sector level, Rosenberg Research shifted its methodology slightly to isolate relative outperformance to the benchmark (S&P 500) as opposed to just gross performance.
It said Materials (-0.44) is “by far the biggest beneficiary” in this regard thanks to underlying commodity prices, followed by Industrials (-0.27), Technology (-0.16; a function of large international revenues), and Energy (-0.12) to a lesser extent.
“Energy presents an interesting result, showing a smaller correlation to the dollar than we would expect, though results are likely influenced by the post-Russia/Ukraine war dislocations in global energy markets,” the research added.
Also of interest, the research noted that Brazil (commodity-centric) at -0.45 and Sweden (heavily weighted towards Industrials at 40%) at -0.41 topped a list of nations that have experienced the most consistent excess returns against the MSCI ACWI ex. U.S. index when the dollar has been declining.
Canada was 10th on the list at -0.24.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Caution prevailed on Wall Street ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech, with stocks falling and bond yields rising as a key factory report raised concern that inflation pressures could dim the outlook for rate cuts.
The fastest growth in manufacturing since 2022 drove Treasuries lower, with 10-year yields up four basis points to 4.33%.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland chief Beth Hammack said she wouldn’t support easing if officials had to decide tomorrow.
The S&P 500 slipped for a fifth straight day, its longest slide since January.
Most big techs slid.
Walmart Inc. sank 4.5% on a profit miss.
While data showed an increase in jobless claims — adding to signs of a slowing labor market — the solid factory purchasing managers index made traders trim their bets on rate cuts.
Money markets saw a roughly 70% chance of a reduction in September.
A week ago, the odds were above 90%.
“The Fed is being put in a tough spot, with pressures to cut interest rates as inflation rises and the labor market decelerates — with both of those metrics moving in the opposite direction from the Fed’s dual mandate,” said Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro.
Central bankers and economists from around the world are gathering for the Fed’s economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The prestigious event in the Grand Teton mountains has been used as a venue for making key policy announcements.
Powell is due to speak Friday at 10 a.m. New York time.
Meantime, the Justice Department signaled possible plans to investigate Fed Governor Lisa Cook, with a top official encouraging Powell to remove her from the board.
President Donald Trump’s housing-finance chief, Bill Pulte, has called for a probe over mortgage agreements she allegedly made in 2021.
“The great PMI numbers have made it more difficult for Powell to pivot to employment weakness for tomorrow,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
The Fed chair’s annual speech in Jackson Hole can be an opportunity to flag policy shifts.
Trouble is that the key economic indicators aren’t all pointing that way.
With more economic numbers due before then, the Fed chief may prefer to keep his messaging carefully hedged.
“Key to the Jackson Hole symposium will be whether Fed Chair Powell updates his monetary policy reaction function,” said Calvin Tse at BNP Paribas.
“In our base case, Powell sticks to his reaction function laid out in July.
We think this would surprise markets hawkishly.”
Other Fed officials speaking Wednesday and Thursday struck a similarly hawkish tone as Cleveland’s Hammack.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he still sees just one rate cut this year as appropriate.
Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed, said inflation risk still outweighs risks to the labor market.
Those comments echoed minutes of the central bank’s latest policy meeting in July, which showed most officials held the same view.
“We knew that the upcoming speech by Jerome Powell on Friday would leave the market cautious,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
“Fed meeting notes released yesterday revealed a higher concern over tariff-driven inflation risks, and the betting on Fed cuts continues to soften.”
“While we may see a market pullback if Powell throws cold water on the idea of a September rate cut, we believe rate cuts are on the horizon at some point in the next 12 months,” said Rick Gardner at RGA Investments.
While investors are focused on Jackson Hole, Gardner says he’d argue that the August jobs report, released in early September, will actually be more important for the Fed’s rate cut decision.
“It’s the last jobs report before the September meeting and the headline number and any revisions to the prior months will be scrutinized by central banks and investors alike,” he said.
In both messaging and execution, the Fed will need to tread carefully, according to Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
Labor-market conditions may not be weak, but they are weakening, he noted.
Coupled with sticky inflation that’s expected to edge higher in the near term, the growing risk of a potentially “stagflationary” outlook will create a challenge for policymakers, Baird said.
“Cut too early or too aggressively, and the Fed risks pushing inflation expectations even higher,” he added.
“Move too slowly, and the potential for labor conditions to further deteriorate and the economy to stall increases.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that 43% of investors believe that the market reaction to Jackson Hole will be “neutral”, 39% said “risk-off” and only 18% “risk-on.”
The tally also showed that compared to six months ago, 75% of investors believe that artificial-intelligence valuations are richer and 23% believe they are about the same.
Only 2% believe they are cheaper.
Value is the favorite factor into year end, followed by growth and risk-off.
“Investor’s favorite themes into the end of the year are interest rate sensitivities, AI power, and value,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V.
“The biggest market risks are too high inflation, less rate cuts, and overbought conditions.”
Growth and momentum factors that were very positive in helping drive tech and the broader US stock market higher over recent months are now going through a bit of a healthy reset, which is natural, according to Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“Nevertheless, if these investors jitters continue into Nvidia’s report next week, we would expect a larger market reaction (up or down) based on how investors interpret the company’s results and outlook,” he said.
A slew of Wall Street analysts covering Nvidia Corp. are boosting their expectations for the chipmaker’s stock ahead of its quarterly earnings release due Aug. 27.
Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services says the weight of the evidence indicates that the recent setback in the tech sector is a necessary reset within a still-constructive long- term trend.
“The sector’s ‘rubber band’ was stretched after its sharpest four-month rebound since 2000, making it more vulnerable to negative headlines,” Lerner noted.
“That said, tech’s trailing one-year return is not at an extreme.”
The main risk to monitor is a deterioration in earnings momentum — however, profit trends remain strong for now, he said.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk says sharp losses in high-flying momentum stocks may present a dip-buying opportunity.
When the firm’s long-short momentum basket dropped 10% or more over a five-day span in the past, it proceeded to rise in the following week 80% of the time, the traders wrote.
The median return was 4.5% in the next week and more than 11% in the next month.
“I do not like August since there are ‘air pockets’,” said rotation, which is unfortunate because the earnings environment has been stunning.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Walmart Inc.’s profit missed expectations for the first time in three years, overshadowing higher sales.
** The world’s largest retailer cited a rise in insurance claims, legal charges and restructuring costs as factors weighing down its profit.
** Despite the rare profit miss, Walmart raised its full-year sales guidance.
* Boeing Co. is heading closer toward finalizing a deal with China to sell as many as 500 aircraft, according to people familiar with the matter, a transaction that would end a sales drought that stretches back to US President Donald Trump’s last visit in 2017.
* US auto safety regulators are looking into delays by Tesla Inc. in reporting details of crashes involving driver-assistance technology.
* Apple Inc. raised the monthly subscription price of its TV+ streaming platform by 30% to $13, part of a push to generate more revenue from services.
* Google’s Pixel 10 marks the phone’s 10th generation — nine years after the first model — but you’d be hard-pressed to tell it’s a milestone release.
* The slide in Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc.’s shares deepened as a conservative backlash to the restaurant chain’s logo change intensified across social media.
* Coty Inc. forecast steep sales declines will continue as retailers clear out existing inventory and consumer demand remains tepid in the face of an uncertain economic outlook.
* Gilead Sciences Inc. slipped after CVS Health Corp said it hasn’t yet added its new HIV prevention shot to its commercial drug plans.
* International Paper Co. said it will sell its global cellulose fibers business for $1.5 billion as part of its strategy to focus on sustainable packaging solutions.
* Rent the Runway Inc. will hand over a controlling stake in the company as part of a plan to cut debt and grow, after residual effects of the Covid-19 pandemic pushed the firm to the brink of bankruptcy.
* Thoma Bravo has agreed to buy human resources software provider Dayforce Inc. in what is set to become one of the investment firm’s largest-ever deals.
* Crusoe Energy Systems, a critical infrastructure provider of the artificial intelligence boom, plans to raise new funding at a valuation near $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter — a deal that would highlight the massive resources required to power AI systems.
* The New York Stock Exchange has already convinced a significant chunk of Texas public companies to dual list their shares on its new outpost in their home state, shoring up its competitive position ahead of next year’s planned launch of the rival Texas Stock Exchange.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The mix of more jobless claims and flat hiring points to a softening jobs backdrop, which will require a big tradeoff from the Fed in light of rising inflationary pressures.”
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1605
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3413
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 148.38 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.9% to $112,159.81
* Ether fell 3.1% to $4,223.06
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.33%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.76%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.73%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 3.79%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.92%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $63.41 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,339.12 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Success is not the result of spontaneous combustion. You must set yourself on fire. — Arnold H. Glasow, 1905-1998.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: St. Stephen’s Day, Hungary.

August 20, 1889: The jar screw cap is patented by William Painter, improving food preservation and storage.
August 20, 1942: Plutonium first weighted.
August 20, 1953: The Soviet Union publicly acknowledged it had tested a hydrogen bomb. Go to article.

Eliel Saarinen, architect, b.1873.
Jacquelien Susann, writer, b.1921.

A rare ‘black moon’ rises this weekend: What is it, and what can you see?

Saturday’s new moon is a seasonal “black moon” — a rare phenomenon that occurs once every 33 months. Here’s what that means and why it’s a great night for stargazing. Read More.

Keratin extracted from sheep’s wool repairs teeth in breakthrough

Keratin extracted from sheep wool has been found to help protect human teeth. It could be coming to your dentist’s office soon. Read More.

Rocket-like jellyfish, regal Komodo dragon and harrowing whale rescue — see the stunning Ocean Photographer of the Year 2025 finalists

Finalists in the Ocean Photographer of the Year 2025 competition capture beautiful images of animals and people oceans. Read More.

New brain implant can decode a person’s ‘inner monologue’

A new brain-computer interface can decode a person’s inner speech, which could help people with paralysis communicate. Read More.

Cambridge Dictionary adds 6,000 new words
The list includes popular slang like “broligarchy” and “dululu.”

Aubrey Plaza opens up about her ‘daily struggle’ with grief
Her husband, writer/director Jeff Baena, died in January at the age of 47.

Is the cassette making a comeback?
And will Taylor Swift’s new album, which will be available on cassette, turn the trend into a revival?

460 million: That’s how many metric tons of plastic are made each year.

Feeling nostalgic, Gen X?
It’s cool. The ‘80s are back.

Quotable:
“I represent every Palestinian woman and child whose strength the world needs to see. We are more than our suffering — we are resilience, hope, and the heartbeat of a homeland that lives on through us.”  — Nadeen Ayoub, who will become the first woman to represent the Palestinian people at the Miss Universe pageant.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Amsterdam, Netherlands
Tall ships take part in the 50th Sail Amsterdam festival
Photograph: Sem van der Wal/ANP/AFP/Getty

Artvin, Turkey
A villager prepares to take part in the Berobana dance, a 150-year-old tradition symbolising unity and solidarity
Photograph: Dilara Irem Sancar/Anadolu/Getty

​​​​​​​Zhangjiajie, China
A man competes in the Slackline King championship final more than 1,000 metres above the Huangshizhai gorge
Photograph: Deng Daoli/VCG/Getty
Market Closes for Aug 20^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44938.31	+16.04
		+0.04%
S&P 500	6395.78	-15.59
		-0.24%
NASDAQ	21172.86	-142.09
		-0.67%
TSX	27878.76	+54.88
		+0.20%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	42888.55	-657.74
		-1.51%
HANG SENG	25165.94	+43.04
		+0.17%
SENSEX	81857.84	+213.45
		+0.26%
FTSE 100*	9288.14	+98.92
		+1.08%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.446	3.446
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.855	3.861
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2907	4.3062
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8948	4.9081

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7208	0.7211
US $	1.3873	1.3867

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6168	0.6165
US $	1.1653	0.8581

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3334.45	3332.40
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.35	62.35

Market Commentary:
The stone age didn’t end for lack of stones, and the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil. -Sheikh Ahmad Zaki Yamani, 1930-2021.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% at 27,878.76 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.5%. G.
Mining Ventures Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.2%.
Today, 110 of 211 shares rose, while 98 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.3%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on Aug. 13, 2025 and 25.4% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 2.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.47t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 9.64% compared with 9.65% in the previous session and the average of 8.24% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 76.4391| 2.0| 33/14
Energy | 33.5748| 0.8| 28/11
Utilities | 3.6289| 0.3| 7/7
Communication Services | 2.5486| 0.4| 3/2
Consumer Staples | 2.4911| 0.2| 6/4
Health Care | -0.9111| -1.3| 0/3
Real Estate | -1.5007| -0.3| 9/9
Financials | -3.8065| 0.0| 13/11
Consumer Discretionary | -17.0038| -1.8| 0/9
Industrials | -18.9271| -0.6| 9/20
Information Technology | -21.6602| -0.8| 2/8
Agnico Eagle Mines |Ltd | 21.9800| 3.5| -10.4| 66.1
Enbridge | 18.3100| 1.8| -14.1| 9.2
Barrick Mining | 14.6800| 3.7| 78.3| 54.7
Restaurant Brands | -8.8290| -4.2| 83.5| -5.6
Cameco | -14.0500| -4.5| 14.4| 32.3
Shopify | -22.4200| -1.4| -29.1| 24.5
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher again on Wednesday, as the up and down nature of recent trading continues amid a dearth of major market moving catalysts over the late summer period.
Buoyed by higher commodity prices, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 54.88 points to 27,878.76, but it lost more than 20 points over the final minutes of Wednesday’s session, leaving the index more than 100 points off the record close of 27,993.43 struck a week ago.
Sectors were mixed, with the Battery Metals Index down near 3% and Health Care down near 1.3%.
Energy was up about 0.7%.
Of commodities, gold prices were higher late afternoon Wednesday, moving higher following four losing sessions as the dollar and yields fell with the market awaiting the Friday start of the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $32.90 to US$3.391.60 per ounce.
In relation to Jackson Hole, the minutes for the last meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) on July 29-30 were released Wednesday afternoon and according to BMO Economics they “emphasized divergent views about the balance of risks to the economic outlook and, in turn, how soon the Fed should consider cutting policy rates.”
BMO said: “Utilizing an August 20 lens instead of a July 30 one, the Minutes read less hawkishly than they otherwise would. And it’s probably going to be up to Chair Powell in his Friday speech at the Jackson Hole confab to indicate how the balance of risks might have altered over the past three weeks.
We doubt it’s enough for an outright rate cut tilt on the scale, so Powell’s messaging is probably going to be subtle.”
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher as a report showed a larger than expected draw on U.S. oil inventories last week, while talks over ending Russia’s war on Ukraine continue.
WTI oil closed up $0.86 to settle at US$63.21 per barrel, while October Brent crude was up $1.03 to US$66.82 per barrel.
In relation to both equities and oil, Rosenberg Research has just made a minor change to the Rosie Macro Fund, shifting out of the Hamilton Utilities Yield Maximizer ETF (UMAX.TO) and swapping it for the Global X Equal Weight Canadian Pipelines ETF (PPLN).
“Our intent all along was to capture exposure to what we see as a bona fide growth and yield play in Canadian pipelines (benefiting from a renewed national interest in energy infrastructure investment).
The limited availability of pureplay Canadian pipeline ETFs made UMAX one of the only attractive options at the time, but, with PPLN now filling that gap in the market (while offering an attractive yield of 5%+ to boot), this is no longer the case, and we can fully align our original investment thesis via this ETF (pipelines only, with no diluted energy exposure),” Rosenberg noted.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rebounded from session lows after a week-long tech tout, in the latest sign of febrile Wall Street trading ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.
Following a rout that shed billions of dollars from US equity values, buyers emerged in the last stretch of Wall Street trading.
A renewed rout in big tech and signs inflation remains the predominant concern of Federal Reserve officials weighed on trading Wednesday.
Most major groups in the S&P 500 rose, with energy and defensive shares leading gains.
All mega caps fell, but they also bounced trimmed losses.
The Nasdaq 100 was down by 0.6% after earlier slumping almost 2%.
“Today feels like a test for the dip-buyers with data on PMIs on Thursday and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole may prove to be market movers/narrative changers,” Andrew Tyler at JPMorgan Chase & Co. wrote earlier Wednesday.
Treasuries pared earlier gains as minutes of last month’s Fed meeting cast doubt on how far and how fast the central bank will lower borrowing costs.
Two-year yields were little changed at 3.74%, compared to a fall of four basis points earlier.
Swaps showed traders continued to price in a high probability that the Fed will lower rates next month.
To Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, Chair Powell is likely to keep his cards close to his vest, emphasize that the Fed cares very much about their dual mandate and explain that they are data dependent.
“The minutes are consistent with Powell’s hawkish comments last meeting,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“The bulls might get some cold water splashed in their faces at Jackson Hole.”
For some investors, profit-taking has taken precedence over continued risk-taking amid concerns about valuations, said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com. Yet he says the downside is likely to be limited even for tech names.
“We’re seeing a notable drop in leadership, with large-cap growth significantly lagging small caps and value this month,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Still, volatility and credit spreads remain calm, suggesting investors’ fears are modest.”
At BMO Private Wealth, Carol Schleif says stock valuations are full right now leaving little wiggle room for disappointment.
“The stock market is currently discounting a bright future ahead, and that assessment is largely justified thanks to earnings, which have been much stronger than originally expected and increasing clarity on trade and tax policy,” she said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. has curtailed Chinese companies’ access to advance notifications about cybersecurity vulnerabilities in its technology after investigating whether a leak led to a series of hacks exploiting flaws in its SharePoint software.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google introduced a new slate of consumer gadgets on Wednesday, including several smartphones, a watch and new wireless earbuds, all meant to show off the company’s latest advances in artificial intelligence.
* Target Corp. named veteran Michael Fiddelke as its next chief executive officer, betting that the insider will revive the storied retailer struggling with weak sales.
* Off-price retailer TJX Cos. raised its full-year earnings per share outlook after better-than-expected results, a sign that shoppers wary of economic uncertainty are turning to discounters.
* Estée Lauder Cos. issued a weak profit outlook for its fiscal year, dragged down in part by tariff costs.
** The firm said it has hired external advisors to conduct a review of the brands it owns in a bid to accelerate a turnaround after years of sales declines.
* Lowe’s Cos. agreed to buy Foundation Building Materials for about $8.8 billion in cash, accelerating the home-improvement supplier’s push to serve more professional customers.
* Guess? Inc. will be taken private by Authentic Brands Group LLC in partnership with co-founders Maurice and Paul Marciano and Chief Executive Officer Carlos Alberini.
* Luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc. missed analysts’ estimates for quarterly orders as affordability challenges and economic uncertainty held back buyers.
* Thoma Bravo is in advanced talks to buy human resources software provider Dayforce Inc. in what would be one of the takeover firm’s largest-ever deals.
* Alaska Air Group Inc. debuted a new loyalty program that will let members choose from three options to earn award points, the first such offering in the US industry.
* Novo Nordisk A/S implemented a global hiring freeze as the Danish drugmaker seeks to cut costs and regain its footing in the competitive market for weight-loss treatments.
* Baidu Inc.’s revenue slipped slightly, hurt by an economic downturn that’s capping its ability to fight bigger rivals in AI and make inroads in new growth areas.
* SQM, the world’s biggest lithium producer by market value, boosted its sales guidance for this year and struck a note of optimism on prices after posting a 28% slump in second-quarter core earnings.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1653
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3454
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 147.35 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $114,289.95
* Ether rose 4.6% to $4,348.16
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.67%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.74%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.89%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $63.21 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,348.66 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Success is not the key to happiness.  Happiness is the key to success.  If you love what you are doing, you will be successful. -Albert Schweitzer, 1875-1965.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
August 19, 1960: the Soviet Union launches Sputnik 5, carrying dogs Belka and Strelka, the first living creature to orbit Earth and return alive.
August 19, 200:  The Internet search engine Google went public. Go to article

Orville Wright, aviator, b. 1871.
Coco Chanel, designer, b.1883.
Ogden Nash, poet, b. 1902.
Bill Clinton, 42^nd president, b. 1946.

The latest ChatGPT is supposed to be ‘PhD-level’ smart
And yet it can’t even label a map of the US.

Giants outfielder Jung Hoo Lee makes ‘catch of the decade’
You gotta see it to believe it.

$67 million: That’s how much the right-wing cable channel Newsmax has agreed to pay Dominion Voting Systems to settle a lawsuit over the network’s egregious lies about the 2020 election.

Remember ‘The Biggest Loser’?
A new Netflix docuseries explores the harm the reality TV show caused in the name of health.

A meta-analysis found that waling 7,000 steps a day is linked to a 25% lower risk of cardiovascular disease, a 37% lower risk of dying from cancer, and a 38% lower risk of dementia.

Hurricane Erin could unleash 100-foot waves across the East Coast this week, forecasters warn

Forecasters expect Hurricane Erin, one of the fastest rapidly intensifying storms in history, to bring flooding and dangerous currents as the Category 4 hurricane travels to the
U.S. East Coast this week. Read More.

Meet the ‘neglectons’: Previously overlooked particles that could revolutionize quantum computing

When mathematicians revived ignored mathematical structures, they found that overlooked particles, called “neglectons,” could complete the quantum computing puzzle. Read More.

Scientists transform ‘forever chemicals’ in water into fluoride with new process

Exposure to a sunlight-activated catalyst broke down 99% of a forever chemical, leaving behind recyclable fluoride. Read More.

OpenAI’s ChatGPT agent can control your PC to do tasks on your behalf — but how does it work and what’s the point?

With new tools and greater autonomy, OpenAI’s flagship AI chatbot is more capable, and potentially more dangerous, than ever. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Quanzhou City, China
Women wear traditional Xunpu floral headdresses, which are believed to bring health and prosperity
Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock

London, UK
Fans dressed as Star Wars characters take over the Old Royal Naval College in Greenwich
Photograph: Ben Whitley/PA

​​​​​​​Kiruna, Sweden
People gather to watch the town’s church being moved to make way for the expansion of an iron ore mine
Photograph: Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for Aug 19^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44922.27	+10.45
		+0.02%
S&P 500	6411.37	-37.78
		-0.59%
NASDAQ	21314.95	-314.82
		-1.46%
TSX	27823.88	-98.97
		-0.35%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	43546.29	-168.02
		-0.38%
HANG SENG	25122.90	-53.95
		-0.21%
SENSEX	81644.39	+370.64
		+0.46%
FTSE 100*	9189.22	+31.48
		+0.34%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.446	3.490
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.861	3.896
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3062	4.3335
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9081	4.9336

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7211	0.7244
US $	1.3867	1.3805

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6147	0.6193
US $	1.1644	0.8588

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3332.40	3343.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.35	63.42

Market Commentary:
The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient. -Warren Buffett, B. 1930.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 27,823.88 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on Aug.7 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.4%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest drop, falling 17.5%.
Today, 128 of 211 shares fell, while 81 rose; 6 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on Aug. 13, 2025 and 25.2% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 1.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.49t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.65% compared with 9.69% in the previous session and the average of 8.17% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -70.6672| -1.8| 6/42
Information Technology | -56.7005| -1.9| 2/8
Financials | -12.5702| -0.1| 10/14
Energy | -9.8706| -0.2| 5/34
Health Care | -0.9059| -1.3| 0/3
Utilities | -0.6789| -0.1| 8/6
Communication Services | 2.7641| 0.4| 3/1
Consumer Discretionary | 3.7933| 0.4| 4/5
Real Estate | 4.8300| 0.9| 17/2
Consumer Staples | 4.8921| 0.5| 8/2
Industrials | 36.1498| 1.1| 18/11
Shopify | -39.5600| -2.4| -32.7| 26.2
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | -13.3100| -2.1| -38.7| 60.6
Cameco | -11.4000| -3.5| -4.8| 38.5
TC Energy | 9.1690| 1.8| -52.4| 5.9
Canadian Pacific | Kansas | 14.5200| 2.2| -29.8| -0.2
Enbridge | 14.9500| 1.5| -17.2| 7.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s summer calm cracked as a selloff in big tech dragged down stocks, underscoring the American market’s narrow reliance on a handful of growth giants.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 1.4% — its second-worst drop since April’s tariff shock — led by a rout in Nvidia Corp.
That pressure overwhelmed gains in over 350 shares in the S&P 500, exposing the fragility of an index propped up by mega caps.
Home Depot Inc.’s results lifted big-box retailers, while Intel Corp. jumped as the US is ironing out details of a deal to take a 10% stake in the chipmaker.
Treasuries rose ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday, with traders firming up bets on a September cut.
Ten-year yields slid three basis points to 4.30%.
S&P Global Ratings said revenues from tariffs will help soften the blow to the US’s fiscal health from tax cuts, enabling it to maintain its credit grade.
The crypto world joined a slide in risky assets.
Positioning across US equity markets remains at elevated levels following a strong reporting season, according to Citigroup Inc.’s Chris Montagu.
At Citadel Securities, Scott Rubner said individual investors are likely to slow their torrid pace of stock buying in September before resuming later this year.
“It is always easier when the markets are going up,” said Nicholas Bohnsack at Strategas.
“It is difficult to poke holes in the bull case; the path of least resistance is likely higher, but we find ourselves increasingly worried that traditional risk assets (stocks and bonds) appear priced to perfection.”
Some options traders worrying about tech weakness after a torrid surge have been trying to protect themselves with “disaster” puts on the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF, according to Jeff Jacobson at 22V Research.
A measure showing the difference between the cost of hedging against a sharp downturn and a smaller one is at an almost three-year high.
Earlier this month, Bank of America Corp. strategists led by Michael Hartnett said the rally that’s propelled the so- called Magnificent Seven stocks about 40% higher since April looks stretched.
Hartnett has repeatedly warned of a bubble risk in US stocks this year.
“AI will have a significant impact on our lives and productivity.
But that doesn’t mean that the tech companies in the S&P 500 are correctly priced,” said Tosten Slok at Apollo wrote earlier this week.
“The P/E ratio for Tesla is almost 200, and the P/E ratio for Nvidia is around 60.
Many software companies are likely to go out of business because of ChatGPT.”
For Slok, the current situation is surprisingly similar to the tech bubble in the 1990s.
The technology sector reclaimed its spot as the S&P 500’s highs.
Yet to Bret Kenwell at eToro, while valuations appear stretched, elevated growth expectations help justify prices.
Meantime, AI enthusiasm as well as momentum can help keep tech in the driver seat, he said.
“Whether money continues to flow into the ‘Magnificent Seven’ leaders or rotate within the group, investors will likely look for tech’s continued leadership in the second half of 2025,” he noted.
Much of the recent run-up in tech stocks is an underpinning of strong corporate fundamentals, said Stephen Schwartz at Pioneer Financial, who believes there are legs to the tech rally amid a continued capex boom related to the AI buildout.
“The market has experienced a powerful move off the April lows thanks to policy clarity, upside earnings surprises, and the expectation of lower rates,” he said.
“We believe the AI power engine will continue to deliver strong earnings momentum throughout the balance of ’26 pushing stocks to higher levels.”
Meantime, traders are gearing up for Powell’s speech on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with the Treasury market seeing a quarter-point rate cut next month as virtually a lock and at least one more by year-end.
“As the market readies for Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, we’ll argue that the biggest risk for Treasuries is if the Fed chief chooses to throw cold water on the widely anticipated September rate cut,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
While this is not Lyngen’s base-case scenario, he says the front-end of the curve is vulnerable to a correction if Powell doesn’t deliver on the degree of dovishness currently anticipated.
Investors are waiting to see if Powell affirms the market pricing — or pushes back with a reminder that new data arriving before the next policy gathering could change the picture.
They’re also looking for clues about the longer-run trajectory of Fed cuts into next year.
A couple of weeks ago, when the latest jobs report revealed a slump in hiring, the case for lower rates appeared all but closed.
Then came the sharpest spike in US wholesale prices in three years – fuel for the concern about tariff-led inflation that’s kept Fed officials on hold so far this year.
While the recent inflation data has been volatile with some conflicting signals, Schwartz says there’s a market perception that the inflation surge from 2022 is behind us.
“While we expect some near-term volatility, we believe markets will continue to move past the inflation situation, and that the economy and the US consumer are strong enough to continue growing,” he said.
At Bank of America Corp., strategists including Mark Cabana and Meghan Swiber say they don’t think Powell will sound as dovish as the market expects.
“Powell’s reaction function to recent stagflationary data will be key,” they noted.
“Will he be spooked by jobs revisions or lean into the labor supply slowdown?”
In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman deflected when asked if she would be interested in leading the central bank as chair.
On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump urged Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy to show some “flexibility” as the US president accelerates his efforts to end the war in Ukraine and encourages the two leaders to hold a bilateral summit.
“While there’s a sense that the path to peace is at least slightly clearer, traders remain wary,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“And rightly so – the toughest conversations, namely over territory, still lie ahead.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. employees have started setting up a protest encampment at the company’s Redmond, Washington, headquarters, ratcheting up a campaign calling for company to stop doing business with Israel over its war in Gaza.
* SoftBank Group Corp. agreed to buy $2 billion of Intel Corp. stock, a surprise deal to shore up a struggling US name while boosting its own chip ambitions.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is splitting its newly formed artificial intelligence group into four distinct teams and reassigning many of the company’s existing AI employees, an attempt to better capitalize on billions of dollars’ worth of recently acquired talent.
* Palo Alto Networks Inc. gave a stronger-than-expected annual forecast, as the company seeks to provide customers with a bundle of AI-enabled cybersecurity products to fend off attacks.
* Apple Inc. is expanding iPhone production in India at five factories, including a pair of recently opened plants, as it seeks to lessen its reliance on China for US-bound models.
* Tesla Inc. priced its new six-seat Model Y sport utility vehicle in the same range as local rival Li Auto Inc.’s extended-range L8 model to win over middle-class families in China’s hyper-competitive market.
* Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he’d support consolidation as a means to make the US freight rail industry more efficient, a potential boost for Union Pacific Corp.’s $72 billion takeover of Norfolk Southern Corp.
* Ford Motor Co. and South Korea’s SK On are seeking buyers for excess battery supply produced at their new joint-venture Kentucky factory, underscoring the waning demand for electric vehicles in the US.
* Viking Therapeutics Inc.’s experimental obesity pill disappointed in a mid-stage study, marking another weaker-than- expected result for an oral alternative to popular weight-loss injections.
* Anglo American Plc suffered a major setback to its restructuring plans after Peabody Energy Corp. decided to walk away from a $3.8 billion deal to buy its steelmaking coal business following a fire at an Australian mine.
* US power and natural gas utilities Black Hills Corp. and NorthWestern Energy Group agreed to merge in a $3.6 billion deal that underscores the boom for electricity demand that’s being unleashed by data centers.
* Nexstar Media Group Inc. has agreed to buy TV station operator Tegna Inc. for $3.5 billion in a cash deal that stands to dramatically expand Nexstar’s reach to 80% of US households and test the Trump administration’s appetite for consolidation.
* Medtronic Plc will expand its board after Elliott Investment Management became one of its biggest investors. The medical devices maker also reported profit that beat estimates and lifted full-year earnings guidance.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The Fed’s current stance of remaining open to rate cuts because of benign inflation data is the Goldilocks scenario that’s both keeping the Treasury curve from steepening, and allowing the Magnificent Seven earnings and wider S&P 500 margin story to reign supreme.”
— Edward Harrison, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.8%
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index rose 0.5%
* Intel rose 7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1647
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3490
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 147.61 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.9% to $113,108.39
* Ether fell 4.4% to $4,142.68
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.30%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.75%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.74%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.75%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.90%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $62.44 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,316.09 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path. -Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1803-1882.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

August 18, 1872: Frist mail order catalog published.
August 18, 1920: 19^th Amendment ratified: Women’s right to vote.
August 18, 1949: The first commercially successful photocopy machine is introduced by Chester Carlson and Haloid (later Xerox).
August 18, 1991: Soviet hard-liners launched a coup aimed at toppling President Mikhail S. Gorbachev, who was vacationing in the Crimea. Go to article.

Meriwether Lewis, explorer, b. 1774.
Rosalynne Carter, 1^st lady, b. 1927.
Robert Redford, actor, b. 1937.

Medieval knight ‘Lancelot’ and his stunning stone tomb found under ice cream shop in Poland

Archaeologists found the body of a medieval knight underneath a tombstone that depicted him in full military regalia. Read More.

Oops! Earendel, most distant star ever discovered, may not actually be a star, James Webb Telescope reveals

Astronomers used the James Webb Space Telescope to investigate whether the most distant star identified in the universe is, in fact, a star cluster. Read More.

Scientists have finally made an elusive meteorite diamond, predicted to be 50% harder than Earth diamonds

Meteorite diamonds, which could be 58% harder than ordinary diamonds, have finally been made in the lab. Read More.

China builds record-breaking floating wind turbine — it could change the face of renewable energy

Floating offshore wind turbines open a whole new playing field for energy companies, which have so far had to stick to shallow waters. Read More.

Prepare for more delays, cancellations
Despite back-to-work orders from the Canadian government, more than 10,000 Air Canada flight attendants plan to continue their strike.

Monica Seles reveals illness
The tennis champ decided to see a doctor after noticing symptoms such as double vision and weakness in her arms and legs.

11 weird little hacks Costco shoppers should know
Do you shop at Costco? Then you know the thrill of saving money. But you might be missing other smart ways to stretch your dollars. Check out our list of genius money hacks — almost as good as that $1.50 hot dog!

Dedicated collector creates sports memorabilia masterpiece
And he did it all in just one year!

British actor Terence Stamp dies at 87
Stamp appeared in dozens of movies, but he was best known to American audiences for playing General Zod in two “Superman” films. He later provided the voice of Jor-El, Superman’s father, in the hit TV series “Smallville.”

Ronnie Rondell, a stuntman who was set alight for Pink Floyd’s 1975 album, “Wish You Were Here,” died at 88.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Fujian province, China
Fishing boats embark from Fuzhou after the end of a summer fishing ban in the South China Sea
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images

Beijing, China
Two robots fight during a kickboxing match on the second day of the inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games
Photograph: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

Lytham, UK
A man dressed as a 1940s police officer controls traffic during the Lytham 1940s Weekend in Lancashire
Photograph: Paul Ellis/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for Aug 18^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44911.82	-34.30
		-0.08%
S&P 500	6449.15	-0.65
		-0.01%
NASDAQ	21629.77	+6.79
		+0.03%
TSX	27922.85	+17.39
		+0.06%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	43714.31	+336.00
		+0.77%
HANG SENG	25176.85	-93.22
		-0.37%
SENSEX	81273.75	+676.09
		+0.84%
FTSE 100*	9157.74	+18.84
		+0.21%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.490	3.454
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.896	3.851
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3335	4.3160
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9336	4.9183

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7244	0.7239
US $	1.3805	1.3814

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6105	0.6209
US $	1.1668	0.8570

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3335.50	3343.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.42	62.80

Market Commentary:
Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil. -J. Paul Getty, 1892-1976.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 27,922.85 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s little change.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.1%. G. Mining Ventures Corp. had the largest increase, rising 7.3%.
Today, 109 of 211 shares rose, while 96 fell: 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on Aug. 13, 2025 and 25.6% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.49t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.69% compared with 9.70% in the previous session and the average of 8.01% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 23.8590| 0.8| 7/3
Consumer Staples | 13.1325| 1.3| 9/1
Consumer Discretionary | 10.8780| 1.2| 6/3
Utilities | 1.7006| 0.2| 7/7
Communication Services | 0.2078| 0.0| 2/3
Health Care | -0.6667| -0.9| 1/2
Industrials | -1.0912| 0.0| 17/12
Real Estate | -1.3350| -0.3| 4/14
Financials | -3.6250| 0.0| 14/10
Materials | -11.4572| -0.3| 22/24
Energy | -14.2314| -0.3| 20/17
Shopify | 17.9100| 1.1| -38.7| 29.2
Dollarama | 8.9450| 2.4| 21.9| 40.4
Constellation | Software | 5.6420| 0.9| 26.6| -1.1
Brookfield Corp | -6.3240| -0.7| -25.1| 8.8
TC Energy | -6.4760| -1.3| -9.6| 4.0
Enbridge | -8.6970| -0.9| 94.4| 5.6
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange eked out a modest gain in the final minutes of Monday’s session, for its first gain since posting a record close last Wednesday, amid mixed commodity prices and on a dearth of market moving catalysts.
The resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index came with a late run to close up 17.36 points at 27,922.85, staying under the record close of 27,993.43 struck on August 13.
Reflecting the day in trading, most sectors were lower, led by Base Metals down 1.65% and Health Care down near 1.4%.
No sector was up even near 1%.
Among individual stocks, shares in Air Canada (AC.TO) closed down $0.59 to $19.18, with over 4.3-million shares traded, as its chief executive said he hopes the airline will resume services tomorrow despite striking flight attendants defying a federal back-to-work order.
However, before the close of trade, Air Canada said all flights of Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge remain suspended due to the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) “failing to direct its flight attendant members to resume the performance of their duties” as directed by the Canadian Industrial Relations Board (CIRB).
The CIRB has also directed flight attendants to resume the performance of their duties immediately, it added.
Perhaps Wells Fargo caught the overall mood in equity markets across North America when it said today it expects stocks, albeit with a focus on U.S. ones, will follow the ‘classic’ post-election year cycle, “struggling to move meaningfully higher in the near term”.
Wells Fargo was a bit more optimistic on real assets, at least longer term.
It noted gold prices have “stalled out” after sharp early year gains, as “initial reasons for the rally have run out of steam, and there has been a lack of new catalysts.
But it said: “We believe this consolidation is just a pause with the longer-term uptrend, and we continue to favour gold and precious metals,” before adding, “investors should use pullbacks to add exposure.”
With commodities today, gold prices edged lower late afternoon Monday, while the dollar rose as Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and a group of European leaders headed to the White House following a Friday summit between the U.S and Russia that ended with President Donald Trump urging Ukraine to surrender territory to Russia in exchange for peace.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $4.50 to US$3,378.1, sticking to the tight range it has mostly traded within since late April.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose ahead of the Washington meeting, while traders turn bearish on the commodity as a report showed the first-ever combined net short position in WTI oil contracts.
WTI Crude oil for September delivery closed up $0.62 to settle at US$63.42 per barrel, while October Brent crude was last seen up $0.71 to US$66.56.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street saw a quiet start to a key Federal Reserve week, with geopolitics coming into play as President Donald Trump said he hopes to set a trilateral meeting with Russia and Ukraine as the White House welcomed Volodymyr Zelenskiy to discuss a potential peace deal.
Following a series of all-time highs for the S&P 500, the gauge wavered.
The Trump administration was said to be in discussions to take a stake of about 10% in Intel Corp.
Traders will get a close look at how American consumers were faring in the early days of Trump’s tariff regime when retail giants like Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. report earnings this week.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.34%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.2%.
The UK’s 30- year inflation-linked yields hit the highest since 1998.
Oil edged up.
Gold fluctuated.
A big week is coming up for the central bank as the Kansas City Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium kicks off Thursday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The prestigious event in the Grand Teton mountains has been used by Fed chairs as a venue for making crucial policy announcements.
Jerome Powell is expected on Friday to unveil the Fed’s new policy framework — the strategy it’ll use to achieve its inflation and employment goals.
He may also drop some hints about the Fed’s thinking ahead of its September policy meeting.
“For now, the market appears to be betting that signs of labor-market weakness will outweigh inflation risk in the Fed’s rate-cutting debate,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech will be the focal point this week, with the nature of the debate shifting from whether the Fed will cut rates to how much and how quickly, according to Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds at Glenmede.
“The stars are aligning for a September rate cut; inflation remains relatively restrained and the labor market is beginning to show early signs of weakness,” they said.
Bond markets have been tempted to think it’s already a lock.
Two-year Treasury yields have plunged this month as traders swung toward pricing in a quarter-point reduction in September.
Those bets took off after the unexpectedly bad July employment report, which also revised payrolls for the prior months downward.
And they’ve only been dialed back slightly in the light of last week’s inflation surprise.
“If the Fed is going to cut next month, expect hints out of this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium,” said Scott Wren at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Interest-rate swaps show a roughly 80% chance that the Fed will lower rates next month by 25 basis points, with two cuts fully priced in by the end of the year.
“We believe that it would be irresponsible for the Fed to cut rates in aggressive manner going forward.
That would only make the bubble a bigger one than it already is right now,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“That would create much more serious problems when that bubble inevitably bursts.”
“It’s likely the FOMC will cut rates in September to manage the risk of a potential fallout in the labor market,” said Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics.
“But given uncertainty on the upcoming August jobs report, Powell won’t be able to say as much in Jackson Hole.”
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, Powell has considerable latitude heading into his Jackson Hole speech Friday in terms of how specific or not he wants to be in terms of the message for September.
“We suspect he will continue to be careful and will not commit his hand in advance for the next meeting,” Guha said.
“But we think the message will be consistent with what we see as a pretty solid central case of a ‘cautious cut’ with 25 basis points in September.”
At Ned Davis Research, Joe Kalish says investors looking for guidance for the September meeting may be disappointed.
“Powell will want to preserve his optionality,” he said.
Oscar Munoz at TD Securities expects Powell will begin signaling the Fed bias towards easing in his Jackson Hole speech.
His has firm revised its Fed call to rate cuts beginning in September after a more-modest-than-expected tariff passthrough in the July consumer price index.
With recent downward jobs number revisions and stable inflation, Richard Saperstein at Treasury Partners expects the Fed to use Jackson Hole as an opportunity to prepare the markets and signal a potentially accommodating stance through year-end.
“We expect a 25 basis-point rate cut in September as a nod to the surprise weakness in hiring in recent months,” he said.
“The powerful combination of stable inflation, ongoing economic growth and expectations of declining interest rates justifies current stock valuations.”
Although multiples are elevated, stocks should continue to benefit from earnings growth into the end of the year, Saperstein noted.
“The economy continues to show resilience in the face of three years of elevated interest rates and more recently, the addition of tariff shocks,” he said.
US small-cap stocks have the scope to rally further as traders price in a rate reduction from the Fed next month, according to Oppenheimer Asset Management strategists led by John Stoltzfus.
They say near-term equity performance suggests “the market is recognizing fundamentals remain pretty much intact.”
S&P 500 companies trounced expectations this earnings season after they found ways to blunt the impact of tariffs and benefitted from a weaker dollar, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“The quarter has been marked by one of the greatest frequency of earnings beats on record,” David Kostin, chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note.
Analysts are ratcheting up earnings estimates for the current quarter at the swiftest pace in nearly four years.
A Citigroup Inc. index that tracks the relative number of US earnings-per-share estimate upgrades versus downgrades is at its highest since December 2021.
“Strong beat rates, big upside earnings surprises, and increases in estimates during the past four weeks were consistent themes that gave investors very little to complain about,” said Jeffrey Buchbinder at LPL Financial.
“This is a big change from first quarter earnings season in April and May, which was more muddied by tariff uncertainty.”
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, the combination of strengthening fundamentals and relentless technical momentum has pushed markets higher, even as retail investors defy traditional playbooks.
“As a result, institutions are being forced to move against their own models, raising the prospect that the usual period of market weakness may never materialize,” he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Novo Nordisk A/S is slashing the cost of Ozempic for cash- paying patients after the diabetes shot became the poster child for high US drug prices.
** Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy received US approval to treat a serious form of liver disease, beating rival Eli Lilly & Co. to the US market.
* Starbucks Corp. will give all salaried employees in North America a 2% raise this year, a shift from previous increases that were decided at managers’ discretion.
* A group of investors led by the owner of several boutique New York hotels agreed to take Soho House & Co. private in a $2.7 billion deal for the members’ club operator that’s struggled since its initial public offering.
* Thoma Bravo is in talks to acquire human resources management software provider Dayforce Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* Air Canada pulled its financial guidance through year-end, citing the impact of a strike by flight attendants that has caused the airline to cancel hundreds of flights.
* Bayer AG agreed to settle cases related to a Seattle-area school where more than 200 people were exposed to toxic chemicals made by the company’s Monsanto unit.
* Electricite de France SA will likely cut nuclear power production in northern parts of the country this week because of forecast shallow waters on the Meuse River.
* Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. will operate a US factory owned by SoftBank Group Corp., setting up what’s in the running to be the first manufacturing site in the Japanese company’s $500 billion Stargate venture with OpenAI and Oracle Corp.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“One potential antidote for all the uncertainty over US assets is the prospect of deeper rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Traders continue to lean closer to two quarter-point reductions this year, even if some Fed officials have argued for three.
To that end, this week’s Jackson Hole gathering could go a long way in bridging the divide.”
— Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1667
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3507
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 147.83 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $116,367.72
* Ether fell 2.6% to $4,355.35
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.76%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.74%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.77%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.94%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to $63.34 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
What we achieve inwardly will change outer reality. –Plutarch, c.45CE-c.125 CE

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com