Category: Uncategorized

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Hump Day!
Carolann is away from the office attending the J.P. Morgan / Robin Hood Investors Conference. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On Oct. 15, 1581 The first ballet “Ballet Comique de la Reine,” commissioned by Catherine de Medici, is staged in Paris
On Oct. 15,  1860 Eleven-year-old Grace Bedell of Westfield, N.Y., wrote a letter to presidential candidate Abraham Lincoln, suggesting he could improve his appearance by growing a beard. Go to article
On Oct. 15, 1924 US President Calvin Coolidge declares the Statue of Liberty a national monument

A massive weak spot in Earth’s magnetic field is growing, scientists discover
The South Atlantic Anomaly, a huge weak spot in the geomagnetic field off South America, has expanded and sprouted a lobe in the direction of Africa over the past decade.

We were wrong about how the moon’s largest and oldest crater formed — and that’s great news for NASA’s next lunar landing
A new study has revealed that our understanding of the South Pole-Aitken basin was quite literally back-to-front, meaning astronauts on NASA’s future Artemis III mission may be able to collect valuable samples of ancient radioactive material, known as KREEP.

Astronomers spot the most powerful and distant ‘odd radio circle’ ever seen
With help from citizen scientists, astronomers have found a unique example of a gigantic, faint ring of plasma that appears to surround a galaxy and emits radio waves.

New hydrogen battery can operate four times colder than before — meaning denser and longer-lasting EV batteries
Being able to store hydrogen at 194 degrees Fahrenheit could dramatically change its use as an energy source.

The world’s longest name
This man can tell you his full name, but it’ll take him about 20 minutes to say all 2,253 words.
Wildlife Photographer of the Year 2025
A ghostly shot of a hyena in Namibia won the Wildlife Photographer of the Year award. See the striking image here.

The power of brain games
Playing certain brain-training games may improve focus and attention, according to a small clinical trial.

International Day of Rural Women (UN) — recognizes the contributions and rights of women in rural areas. Read more.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Yerevan, Armenia
Hot-air balloons fly over the country’s capital city, with Mount Ararat seen in distance
Photograph: Karen Minasyan/AFP/Getty Images

The winner of the Oceans: The Bigger Picture category
An Atlantic fishing vessel during a polar night in northern Norway. Through his work, Audun aims to draw attention to the ongoing conflict between seabirds and the fishing industry. Many birds drown in or around these purse seine nets each year. Various fisheries and researchers are trialling solutions, including sinking the nets more quickly to make them less accessible to the birds
Photograph: Audun Rikardsen/Wildlife Photographer of the Year/PA

The winner of the Natural Artistry category
An orb weaver spider on its web on a pedestrian bridge, silhouetted by lights from the cars below, taken in Ibbenburen, Germany. In urban environments, orb weaver spiders often spin webs near artificial lights that attract insects at night
Photograph: Simone Baumeister/Wildlife Photographer of the Year/PA
Market Closes for October 15^th , 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46253.31	-17.15
		-0.04%
S&P 500	6671.06	+26.75
		+0.40%
NASDAQ	22670.08	+148.38
		+0.66%
TSX	30637.12	+283.51
		+0.93%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	47672.67	+825.35
		+1.76%
HANG SENG	25910.60	+469.25
		+1.84%
SENSEX	82605.43	+575.45
		+0.70%
FTSE 100*	9424.75	-28.02
		-0.30%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.123	3.151
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.615	3.642
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0282	4.0321
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6254	4.6321

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7122	0.7121
US $	1.4040	1.4042

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6360	0.6112
US $	1.1650	0.8583

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	4204.60	4095.95
Oil
WTI Crude Future	58.27	59.49

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1929, with stocks down sharply from their September peak, the head of one of the nation’s largest brokers reassured anxious investors. “The markets generally are now in a healthy condition,” said Charles E. Mitchell of National City Bank. The Crash of 1929 was 12 days away.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.9%, or 283.51 to 30,637.12 in Toronto.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 145 of 214 shares rose, while 68 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. had the largest increase, rising 13.9%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 24%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 37.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 4.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 on a trailing basis and 19 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.85t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.13% compared with 9.92% in the previous session and the average of 7.35% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 167.7863| 3.2| 49/2
Information Technology | 58.9662| 1.9| 5/4
Financials | 38.2265| 0.4| 14/10
Industrials | 9.8088| 0.3| 16/13
Utilities | 9.4184| 0.9| 11/2
Consumer Discretionary | 3.7588| 0.4| 5/4
Consumer Staples | 3.6200| 0.4| 6/5
Real Estate | 2.0121| 0.4| 13/6
Communication Services | 0.3358| 0.1| 3/2
Health Care | 0.2730| 0.3| 2/2
Energy | -10.6967| -0.2| 21/18
Shopify | 39.0300| 2.1| -34.1| 43.4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 37.3200| 4.4| -14.7| 123.3
Celestica | 25.2300| 9.0| 27.7| 186.2
Waste Connections | -6.9450| -1.6| 31.8| -3.3
CGI Inc. | -6.9950| -4.0| 59.8| -22.7
Fairfax Financial | -10.6700| -2.9| -10.9| 21.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday recorded its first record close since October 6 as gold continues to glitter, but Rosenberg Research warned a growing number of divergences indicate an equity market rally that “may be getting long in the tooth”.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 283.51 points, or 0.9%, to 30,637.12, more than 100 points above a closing level on Oct.6, of 30,531.88, what was then a sixth record finish in a row.
Most sectors were higher, led by the Battery Metals Index up 3.65% and Info Tech up 2%.
Telecoms had the biggest losses, down a modest 0.6%.
Rosenberg Research Market Strategist Marius Jongstra published a note entitled ‘Divergences Build, Time to Pay Attention?’ saying a growing number of divergences indicate an equity market rally that “may be getting long in the tooth”.
Among key takeaways, Jongstra cited an increasing list of non-confirmations and anomalies puts the current leg of the S&P 500 on “unstable ground”.
He said an in-house screen of divergences has been triggered four times in the past month and eight times since July and noted this has only happened in less than 2% of all trading days back to 1996.
“Now, to be very clear,”, Jongstra said, “divergences on their own are not powerful enough to cause a correction or a market selloff.
They are simply a reason to pay attention, not a tool for timing the market.
Moreover, divergences can last for as little or as long as they want before they matter — or they may not matter at all if the underlying price action corrects itself.
“That said, a move to all-time highs without underlying support may have its durability called into question (those following Dow Theory know this).
Any negative surprise — such as renewed tariff threats, an escalating trade war, or a prolonged government shutdown weighing on the economy, for example – may then be the catalyst needed for these divergences to be resolved.”
Jongstra added: “It is not abnormal to see one or two non-confirmations appear at any given time.
What is abnormal is when a number of divergences appear at once.
This is when we become interested — as is the case today.”
For his part, Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, noted growth in Canada is “clearly still struggling”.
Kavcic noted manufacturing and wholesale volumes both fell in Canada in August, down 1.5% and 1.3%,
respectively. While wholesale is still up a “sturdy” 2.9% from a year ago, manufacturing volumes are now down 4.3% with declines across nondurables and autos.
Kavcic said: “With hours worked little changed, home sales modestly positive and retail sales volumes still pending, August GDP is tracking roughly flat.
But, given an expected rebound in net exports after a nasty Q2, the economy is still on pace to claw out modest growth for all of Q3.”
Of commodities today, gold continued to push to fresh records Wednesday amid predictions the metal can continue to rise amid an uncertain global economy and lower interest rates.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$65.70 to $4,229.10 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower again, falling to a five-month low on fresh warnings of an over-supplied market.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $0.42 to settle at US$58.27 per barrel, the lowest since May 7, while December Brent crude was down US$0.38 to US$62.01.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street was lashed with volatility as investors struggled to gauge the scope of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Stocks rallied, plunged, then rose anew amid optimism over earnings.
Following one of the best six-month stretches for equities since the 1950s, the market has seen brief bouts of profit- taking in a move dubbed a “healthy reset” after a torrid surge.
Those downward shifts haven’t lasted long on speculation that Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts will keep the positive momentum going for Corporate America.
After a rally that drove the S&P 500 up as much as 1.2%, the gauge turned lower around 1 p.m. New York time.
Nearly 30 minutes later, the US equity benchmark was back in the green.
Investors keeping a close eye on any headline around the tariff spat between the US and China quickly refocused on the fundamental factors that have powered an over $15 trillion surge in the S&P 500 from April’s meltdown.
As the earnings season got under way, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp. jumped on solid results.
Meantime, positive comments on artificial intelligence from ASML Holding NV boosted chipmakers.
In late hours, United Airlines Holdings Inc. reported better-than-expected earnings.
“Investors who are buying the dip are still driving the action, keeping sentiment firm even as technical indicators show signs of strain,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
Treasuries stalled after a rally that drove two-year yields to their lowest since 2022.
Gold topped $4,200.
Despite the market resilience, an escalating tit-for-tat between Washington and Beijing has renewed investors’ fears that the two economic giants could soon be locked in a full-blown trade war.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed a longer pause on high US tariffs on Chinese goods in return for Beijing putting off its recently announced plan to tighten limits on critical rare earths.
Speaking in a CNBC event, Bessent said that as far as he’s aware, President Donald Trump “is a go” on meeting President Xi Jinping later this month.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran noted that trade tensions have increased uncertainty in the outlook for growth, making it more important for officials to lower rates quickly.
“There’s now more downside risks than there was a week ago, and I think it’s incumbent upon us as policymakers to recognize that should get reflected in policy,” Miran said Wednesday during an event organized by CNBC.
Higher uncertainty around trade policies between China and the US have introduced a “new tail risk,” he said.
Despite the recent tariff noise, fundamentals remain strong, according to Max Kettner at HSBC.
Kettner also noted he’s heading into 2026 with a continued “risk-on stance” as short-term US growth expectations look easy to beat.
“Q3 earnings results are important, but they are backward- looking.
What I’ll be watching closely is forward guidance, particularly any signs of optimism,” said Stephen Kates at Bankrate.
“Positive guidance can be self-reinforcing for Wall St. and Main St. Rising stock prices boost business and consumer confidence, which in turn, encourages more real-economy spending.”
To Sam Stovall at CFRA, the market might not be finished digesting recent gains.
“More consolidation may be on the horizon, as breadth has narrowed, but not enough to signal an oversold condition,” he said.
However, should an additional decline materialize, he recommends taking advantage of the price weakness, as no post- World War II deep correction that occurred early in the year was followed in the same year by another selloff in excess of 10%.
The average decline was 8.5%.
“The third-quarter earnings season should be supportive of our view that the bull market remains intact driven by the combination of durable earnings growth and Fed rate cuts,” said David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Retail traders’ demand for call options has outpaced puts for 24 consecutive weeks, which ties with November 2023 for the longest streak ever, said Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner, citing data going back to 2020.
Their conviction in the stock market “remains extraordinary,” Rubner wrote.
“Although we believe a consolidation phase is probable as investors focus on Q3 earnings, they should continue to seek opportunities to ‘buy the dip’ as we enter the fourth year of this bull market,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.

Corporate Highlights:
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. expects brand-loyal flyers and demand for its premium seats to drive profit through the end of the year, maintaining momentum after reporting better-than- expected earnings for the third quarter.
* Morgan Stanley’s stock traders soared past expectations in the third quarter, topping all of its largest rivals as US President Donald Trump’s policies kept markets on edge throughout the period. Shares of the company jumped the most in more than six months.
** As concerns begin to emerge about the quality of US credit, Morgan Stanley reported a noteworthy figure for loan-loss provisions: zero dollars.
* Bank of America Corp.’s third-quarter earnings beat estimates as investment-banking activity surged amid a long-awaited comeback in M&A and net interest income topped analysts’ estimates.
* PNC Financial Services Group Inc.’s more-expensive commercial deposits grew faster in the third quarter, a drag on the net interest margin that pushed the bank further from its year-end goal.
* Walmart Inc.’s US CEO said shoppers are spending at a healthy rate and remain resilient, despite warning signs from banks about the economy.
* Nvidia Corp. added another bull on Wednesday, as HSBC upgraded the chipmaker to buy from hold, citing the ongoing growth of artificial intelligence.
* Apple Inc. rolled out updated versions of the iPad Pro, Vision Pro and entry-level MacBook Pro with the new M5 chip, refreshing the products just ahead of the all-important holiday season.
** Apple is preparing to expand its manufacturing operations in Vietnam as part of a push into the smart home market and an ongoing effort to lessen its dependence on China.
* ASML Holding NV said demand for its most sophisticated chip- making machines is soaring thanks to the artificial intelligence boom, signaling optimism just months after the semiconductor equipment maker warned the trade war could stymie growth.
* Meta Platforms Inc. removed a Facebook group used to share information about Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in Chicago after a request from the Justice Department.
* Nscale, a data center developer focused on artificial intelligence, has agreed to build a site for Microsoft Corp. in Texas, the fourth such deal between the companies in the last two months.
* Dollar Tree Inc. projected earnings per share to gain at a compound rate of as much as 15% over the next three years.
* Papa John’s International Inc. jumped as Reuters reports that Apollo Global Management submitted a bid within the last week to take the pizza chain operator private at $64 per share.
* AppLovin Corp. said it has shut down a product linked to user and short-seller allegations that apps were being downloaded to mobile phones without consent.
* Investors led by BlackRock Inc.’s Global Infrastructure Partners agreed to buy Aligned Data Centers in a $40 billion deal, one of the asset manager’s largest infrastructure investments ever that comes as Wall Street races to claim a stake in the artificial intelligence boom.
* Lone Star Funds plans to acquire US plastic parts and equipment maker Hillenbrand Inc. in an all-cash transaction valuing the target at around $3.8 billion including debt.
* Novo Nordisk A/S agreed to pay Omeros Corp. as much as $2.1 billion for rights to an experimental rare-disease drug, as the maker of Ozempic continues to use deal-making to build its pipeline.
* Abbott Laboratories cut the top end of its 2025 earnings guidance by 2 cents a share, just as the Trump administration launched an investigation into the medical device sector that could lead to tariffs on its biggest product category.
* Volkswagen AG truck brand Scania AB has opened a €2 billion ($2.3 billion) manufacturing facility in China to supply trucks in the world’s biggest market as well as export to Asia.
* Ryanair Holdings Plc slashed its winter capacity to Berlin and other German cities by 800,000 seats in a dispute over the country’s aviation taxes and access costs.
* Waymo is planning to launch its driverless ride-hailing service in London next year, marking its second international expansion and its first in Europe.
* TotalEnergies SE said its third-quarter profit and cash flow may rise slightly after oil and gas output increased and refining margins jumped from a year earlier, outweighing a drop in crude prices.
* SMBC Nikko Securities Inc.’s planned integration with Jefferies Financial Group Inc. will likely go beyond just bringing together their equity businesses, with ties also possible in other investment banking areas, its chief executive officer said.
* Global investors are ramping up bets on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ahead of its earnings, confident that the world’s leading chip foundry will remain one of the biggest winners from the AI spending boom.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Equities couldn’t quite finish the job of rallying from steep opening losses Tuesday, but this morning are in an ebullient mood after ASML’s strong sales figures underscored the strength of AI investment demand.
It remains very much a bull market from that perspective, and the evidence of the last couple of years suggests that it will take a steady diet of bad news elsewhere to keep the market down for very long.”
—Cameron Crise, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1%
* KBW Bank Index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1645
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3393
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 151.26 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $111,397.42
* Ether fell 3.3% to $3,986.02
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.04%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.54%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.50%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.63%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $58.47 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,209.88 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
” Sometimes I say, Moore’s Law will only stop when people stop having ideas … And I think that has not happened so far.” — Christophe Fouquet

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office attending the J.P. Morgan / Robin Hood Investors Conference. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On Oct. 14, 1947: Chuck Yeager makes the first supersonic flight in the Bell XS-1 at Mach 1.06
On Oct. 14, 1964: Civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. was named winner of the Nobel Peace Prize.
On Oct. 14, 1957: Queen Elizabeth II becomes the first Canadian monarch to open the Parliament of Canada with the Speech from the Throne

Scientists ‘reawaken’ ancient microbes from permafrost — and discover they start churning out CO2 soon after
Researchers incubated permafrost samples from Alaska at different temperatures and found that microbes from the last ice age can reactivate and resume breaking down carbon

Link between Cascadia and San Andreas Fault earthquakes discovered 30 years after lost vessel stumbled across key data
Geological records hint that earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone might trigger the San Andreas Fault.

‘Planet Y’ theory hints at hidden Earth-size world lurking in the solar system — and it could be much closer to us than ‘Planet Nine’
A new study has proposed the existence of Planet Y, an alternative Planet Nine candidate that is smaller and closer to Earth than the hypothetical Planet X, which astronomers have been hunting for almost a decade. However, the evidence for this newly theorized world is “not definitive.”

Scientists create ‘Superwood’ that’s 10 times stronger than steel
A US company has engineered a new type of wood that could potentially leave steel in the dust.
The fight against Alzheimer’s disease
The FDA has cleared another blood test to help rule out Alzheimer’s disease in people showing symptoms.

National Dessert Day (U.S.) — October 14 🍨🎂 🍰🍪

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Álamo, Mexico
People search through clothes donated by locals after torrential rains overflowed rivers, causing flooding in Veracruz state
Photograph: Rolando Ramos/Reuters
Paris, France
French painter Gustave Courbet’s oil-on-canvas Self Portrait, also known as Desperation and The Desperate Man (1843-1845), exhibited on loan at the Musée d’Orsay
Photograph: Ian Langsdon/AFP/Getty Images

Le Sépey, Switzerland
Fog covers part of the Dents du Midi Mountain range on an autumn morning in the village of Le Sépey
Photograph: Denis Balibouse/Reuters
Market Closes for October 14^th , 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46270.46	+202.88
		+0.44
S&P 500	6644.31	-10.41
		-0.16%
NASDAQ	22521.70	-172.91
		-0.76%
TSX	30353.61	+502.72
		+1.68%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	46847.32	-1241.48
		-2.58%
HANG SENG	25441.35	-448.13
		-1.73%
SENSEX	82029.98	-297.07
		-0.36%
FTSE 100*	9452.77	+9.90
		+0.10%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.151	N/A
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.642	N/A
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0321	4.0322
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6321	4.6187

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7121	0.7138
US $	1.4042	1.4009

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6294	0.6137
US $	1.1603	0.8618

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	4095.95	4109.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	59.49	59.63

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1980, the IPO boom of the ’80s got off to a roaring start as Genentech went public. It had a 104% gain, one of the highest first-day returns for a stock in history at the time.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.7% at 30,353.61 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 2% on Aug. 5 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.4%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 167 of 214 shares rose, while 45 fell.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.6%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 29.9%.

Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain three times. The next day, it advanced twice for an average 1.2% and declined 3% once
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.1% below its 52-week high on Oct. 6, 2025 and 36.6% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 3.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 on a trailing basis and 18.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.77t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.92% compared with 8.82% in the previous session and the average of 7.21% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 174.8052| 1.8| 23/1
Materials | 160.6487| 3.2| 44/7
Industrials | 58.0538| 1.7| 26/3
Information Technology | 44.4549| 1.5| 8/1
Energy | 37.3379| 0.8| 23/15
Consumer Discretionary | 16.6501| 1.8| 8/1
Utilities | 7.0189| 0.6| 10/4
Consumer Staples | 4.8087| 0.5| 7/4
Real Estate | 2.9610| 0.6| 12/6
Health Care | 1.2368| 1.5| 4/0
Communication Services | -5.2511| -0.8| 2/3
Brookfield Corp | 50.4600| 5.6| 4.4| 15.5
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 36.2600| 4.5| 29.8| 113.8
Shopify | 29.4000| 1.6| -17.0| 40.4
TC Energy | -6.0260| -1.1| 26.6| 9.1
Canadian Natural | Resources | -7.7300| -1.2| 0.2| -2.1
Nutrien | -8.1580| -2.9| 40.3| 26.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange bounced back Tuesday, recovering most of the big losses recorded at the end of last week, before the Canada Thanksgiving holiday weekend, as both gold and silver hit record highs, and as Desjardins expects all but one Canadian province to experience higher real GDP growth next year, despite a new round of targeted tariffs from the United States.
Today, the resources heavy index was up 502.72 or 1.7% at 30,353.61, even as oil futures settled lower.
The TSX recovered most of a total 650 points lost over last Thursday and Friday.
Most sectors were higher, led by Base Metals up 6.4% and then Health Care and Info Tech, both up near 2%.
In contrast, the Battery Metals Index was down 2.8% and Telecom eased near 0.6%.
Within the Telecom sector, BCE (BCE.TO, BCE) was down $0.71 or 2.1% at $32.75 after it unveiled its three-year strategic plan ahead of its investor day today.
The Canadian Press noted BCE will begin offering fibre internet services in Western Canada using its rivals’ networks under rules it has long opposed, as it seeks to grow its customer base and push for more bundled subscriptions.
Sector wise, concerns around U.S. trade policy were back in the spotlight here after new 25% tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities came in to effect, in addition to a 10% import tax on softwood timber and lumber.
But the team over at Desjardins said Canadian provincial governments “took precautions for this possibility by being prudent in their budget planning and preparing measures to contend with trade shocks, making them well positioned to weather the storm.”
Desjardins published a note entitled ‘Provincial Economic Outlook: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly’ in which it noted that it has been a “tough year” for Canada and its provinces.
But despite the economic volatility and uncertainty, Desjardins raised its 2025 and 2026 outlooks for real GDP growth nationally and in central Canada, specifically Ontario and Manitoba.
And while Desjardins lowered its 2025 growth projection for energy producing provinces, namely Alberta and Saskatchewan, compared to its June forecast, it now expects all but one province to experience higher real GDP growth next year.
According to Desjardins, “a better growth forecast is just part of the good news”.
Desjardins said it stems from the lower effective tariff rate on U.S. imports from Canada than previously projected, paired with an improved U.S. economic outlook.
“The elimination of countertariffs on many imports from the U.S. will also help support growth by bringing down prices and providing relief to households and businesses.
A broad reduction in internal trade barriers won’t hurt either.
The resulting lower interest rates will be a tailwind to economic activity too,” it added.
But Desjardins also noted ‘bad’ news. Despite falling import tariffs and interest rates, it said the Canadian housing market is “on life support”, particularly in the most unaffordable provinces, Ontario and British Columbia.
In these regions, it noted, mortgage arrears are rising rapidly and condo presales are in the dumps, while at the same time, market rents are falling fast while rental supply is accelerating.
This can in part be linked back to the abrupt reversal in non-permanent resident admissions, a phenomenon which is expected to continue, and possibly accelerate, into 2026, Desjardins added.
That, Desjardins noted, just leaves the ‘ugly’ news. That, it said, speaks more to the risks around the outlook than to the immediate reality.
Going into the 2026 renewal of CUSMA, it added, there remains a material downside risk that the U.S. administration could ratchet up tariffs on Canadian exports again, in a repeat of 2025.
“The administration has taken this approach recently with cabinets and furniture.
However, provincial governments took precautions for this possibility by being prudent in their budget planning and preparing measures to contend with trade shocks, making them well positioned to weather the storm.”
Of commodities, The Wall Street Journal noted gold futures settled the day at a new high, and traders think there’s a potential for gold to rise as high as US$5,000 a troy ounce.
“With ETF flows remaining strong [and] central bank buying expected to be resilient, we feel confident and compelled to update our target prices for gold,” The WSJ cited Ben Hoff of Societe Generale as saying in a note.
The WSJ noted the firm now forecasts gold to hit the $5,000 threshold by the end of 2026.
Front-month gold closed up 0.7% to US$4,138.70 a troy ounce, marking the third straight positive finish.
Silver also found a new high, with the front-month contract closing up 0.4% to $50.314 a troy ounce.
However, oil futures fell for the third time in four sessions with U.S.-China trade issues weighing and the IEA raising its crude surplus estimates for this year and next, The Wall Street Journal noted.
Analysts, it reported, noted the IEA forecasts put supply next year nearly 4 million barrels a day above demand.
“I’m personally not in that camp, but a supply/demand imbalance does look to be in the cards if OPEC continues with higher production numbers,” Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial was cited as saying in a note.
“The latest tensions between the U.S. and China will also be a pressure point on crude as China’s economy could be in question if tensions stay elevated.”
WTI settled down 1.3% at US$58.70 a barrel, and Brent fell 1.5% to US$62.39 a barrel. Price: 30353.61, Change: +502.72, Percent Change: +1.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Resurgent trade tensions slammed Wall Street anew Tuesday, sending stocks, crypto and oil lower while reinforcing a bid for the safest corners of the market from haven currencies to gold.
Following a brief bounce, the S&P 500 retreated as President Donald Trump said he might stop trade in cooking oil with China, injecting fresh tensions into the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.
His remarks also came after the Asian nation sanctioned US units of a South Korean shipping giant, escalating a dispute over maritime dominance.
“Since the tariff/trade issue is the one issue that has created problems for the stock market his year, we’ll all be watching the developments on this one very, very closely,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
Despite the slide in the US equity benchmark, shares of crop traders Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Bunge Global SA rose.
A gauge of big banks jumped after solid results from financial giants – which unofficially kicked off the earnings season.
Earlier in the session, equities rose as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks reinforced bets on an October rate cut amid job-market weakness.
Two-year yields hovered near the lowest levels since 2022.
Powell also indicated the central bank may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, a key move to preserve liquidity in overnight funding markets.
To Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co., Powell’s remarks were “strong confirmation” of bets on a Fed rate cut at its next meeting.
At Evercore, Krishna Guha said Powell’s assessment of the outlook for the dual mandate objectives as largely unchanged confirms the Fed is on track to ease.
To Gennadiy Goldberg and Oscar Munoz at TD Securities, Chair Powell cleared the path for an end to QT over the coming months.
“We think the Fed will announce an end to balance sheet runoff at the October FOMC meeting.”
The strategists also said the balance sheet is likely to remain steady for some time, but a high-pressure year-end can change that, leading the Fed to consider resuming active purchases of Treasury bills as soon as 2026.
“Ending QT should be supportive of swap spreads, provide more capacity in funding markets, and lower term premium across the curve,” they noted.
“We continue to expect the Fed to cut rates in October and December, and to deliver three more cuts in 2026 for a terminal rate of 3%.”
Swap contracts are pricing in roughly 1.25 percentage points of rate cuts by the end of next year, from the current range of 4%-4.25%.
“As Fed Chair Powell noted, there are no easy paths for the Fed at this point,” saidScott Helfstein at Global X.
“Lowering rates risks accelerating inflation. Holding rates higher presents risk to the job market.”
The Fed is still likely to cut rates in October and December, but investors should be prepared for a range of outcomes as Powell is trying to leave all options open, Helfstein noted.
Markets have moved relentlessly higher over the past few months, and a bit of a breather could be a good thing, he said.
“There is a lot to assess across the weakening labor market, trade policy uncertainty, government shutdown, resilient consumers, and strong corporate fundamentals.
The backdrop remains favorable, but there are plenty of contradictions for investors to wade through,” he said.
A record share of global fund managers said artificial intelligence stocks are in a bubble following a torrid rally this year, according to a survey by Bank of America Corp.
About 54% of participants in the October poll indicated tech stocks were looking too expensive, an about-turn from last month when nearly half had dismissed those concerns.
Fears that global stocks were overvalued also hit a peak in the latest survey.
It’s hard not to see “some frothiness in different sectors,” Citigroup Inc. Chief Financial Officer Mark Mason said on the bank’s third-quarter earnings call in response to a question from a reporter about artificial intelligence.
“I feel good about our business and our ability to cover clients,” he went on.
“But it’s hard to look at how equity valuations and multiples sit today and not think there are some sectors that are likely frothy and overvalued.
But we’ll see how those play out over time.”
Today marked the unofficial start of earnings season, and Bret Kenwell at eToro noted that markets have a history of beating consensus expectations, so if that’s the case this time around too, it could bring some much-needed reassurance at a time where volatility has resurfaced.
“Earnings helped steady the ship in early April amid heavy volatility, with financials telling a reassuring story about the consumer.
Management teams grew even more confident over the summer and investors are now hoping for another positive update,” he said.
Beyond the banks, investors will be keeping a close eye on tech — specifically mega-cap tech and AI-related names.
“They’ll want to know if large tech firms are still spending gobs of money on AI infrastructure, and if recent headlines are any indication, the spending cycle is still firing on all cylinders.
Still, with worries of an AI bubble permeating throughout social media, investors want some reassurance that these big capital investments into AI will pay off,” said Kenwell.
How often do you look at prediction markets to inform your trading decisions? Let us know in the latest Markets Pulse survey.

Corporate Highlights:
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon sounded warnings on the potential for a deterioration in credit quality, a cautionary note that put a damper on the firm’s surge in trading and investment-banking revenue.
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc. posted record third-quarter revenue boosted by a rapid pace of growth in its investment bank that eclipsed Wall Street rivals.
** Goldman Sachs told staffers to expect an additional round of job cuts this year as the bank seeks further savings across its businesses and takes advantage of the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence.
* Citigroup Inc. beat Wall Street revenue estimates across all five of its major business lines, a haul that’s helping the firm manage rising compensation costs and a plan to sell its retail unit in Mexico.
* Wells Fargo & Co. raised a key profitability metric, giving its first major update about the bank’s next growth target after the removal of regulatory restraints it had operated under for more than seven years.
* BlackRock Inc. pulled in $205 billion of client money in the third quarter as the world’s largest fund manager expanded its footprint in private credit and alternative assets.
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc. landed a major order from Oracle Corp. for its forthcoming MI450 chips, a sign it’s making headway in its pursuit of Nvidia Corp. in the booming market for AI processors.
* Salesforce Inc. said it’s saving about $100 million a year by using artificial intelligence tools in the software company’s customer service operations.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google aims to invest about $15 billion building an AI infrastructure hub in southern India over the next five years, making its biggest bet on the fast-growing country.
* Walmart Inc. is teaming up with OpenAI to enable shoppers to browse and purchase its products on ChatGPT, the retailer’s latest push to incorporate artificial intelligence.
* Domino’s Pizza Inc. posted better-than-expected quarterly results, fueled by demand for promotions and stuffed crust pizza, though said the fourth quarter is off to a slow start.
* Johnson & Johnson said it plans to separate its slower-growing orthopedics business from the rest of the company within 18 to 24 months, giving its innovative drug and device operations more breathing room as the Trump administration pressures pharmaceutical companies to lower prices in the US.
* General Motors Co. is incurring $1.6 billion in charges tied to its pullback from electric vehicles, a stark indication of the damage that US policy changes will inflict on plug-in cars.
* Boeing Co. delivered 160 aircraft during the third quarter, the most since 2018 and an indicator the plane maker is rebounding from the turmoil that damaged its finances and reputation.
** Boeing and Airbus SE are suffering “unprecedented” delays in certifying and delivering aircraft, stifling airlines’ growth and plans to decarbonize, customers say.
* Instagram, which is owned by Meta Platforms Inc., will prohibit users under 18 from seeing content considered inappropriate for a PG-13-rated movie, extending teen protections that were rolled out last year.
* Freeport McMoRan Inc. plans to break away from the benchmark pricing system underpinning global sales of mined copper ores to protect the profitability of smelters, the company’s top commercial executive said in an interview.
* ConocoPhillips’ Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance said that there’s little sign of supply-demand weakness right now to justify bearish sentiment in the oil market.
* BP Plc said weak oil trading undercut profit while production increased for a second straight quarter, offering investors a mixed snapshot as the energy giant continues efforts to improve performance.
* Spotify Technology SA’s push into audiobooks appears to be catching on, with more people using the service and publishers giving the streaming company credit for recent growth.
* Rayonier Inc. agreed to buy PotlatchDeltic Corp. in an all- stock deal valued at about $3.4 billion that would create one of the largest publicly traded timber and wood products companies in North America.
* LVMH sales unexpectedly returned to growth in the third quarter as shoppers splurged on Moët & Chandon Champagne and Dior perfumes, suggesting a persistent slump in luxury demand is easing.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“This was Powell’s opportunity to guide markets before the Fed’s upcoming meeting at the end of the month, and his comments provide little reason to think the central bank won’t cut rates.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.4%
* KBW Bank Index rose 1.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1606
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3327
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 151.71 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $112,792.11
* Ether fell 4.1% to $4,115.51
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.02%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.61%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.59%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.47%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.62%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.7% to $58.47 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,144.45 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
” Go as far as you can see; when you get there, you’ll be able to see farther.” — John Pierpont Morgan Sr

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!
Carolann is away from the office for the Bloomberg Screentime 2025 Conference. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On Oct. 10, 1865 John Wesley Hyatt patents the billiard ball made from cellulose nitrate (celluloid) in Albany, New York (patent US50359A)
On Oct. 10, 1886 The tuxedo dinner jacket made its American debut at the autumn ball in Tuxedo Park, N.Y. Go to article
On Oct. 10, 1911 Robert Borden becomes the 8th Prime Minister of Canada

🧠 World Mental Health Day. Read more.
We’re all busy and stressed with work and family responsibilities, and it’s easy to get distracted and lose focus. On World Mental Health Day, there’s one important question to ask yourself. 

Groundbreaking image shows two black holes orbiting each other for first time
Observations by a system of radio telescopes have offered the first visual evidence for the existence of black hole pairs. But vital follow-up observations are needed before we know for sure.

1,000-year-old burials of ‘first Christians’ in Poland discovered near medieval settlement
Archaeologists have uncovered part of a cemetery, including 1,000-year-old human skeletons, near the remains of a fortified medieval settlement in the village of Borkowo in Poland.

Satellites detected strange gravity signal coming from deep within Earth almost 20 years ago, study reveals
Researchers have discovered there was an anomaly in Earth’s gravitational field between 2006 and 2008, potentially caused by a mineral shift deep within Earth’s mantle. GRACE satellites detected a strange gravity signal at the time.

Comet 3I/ATLAS is losing water ‘like a fire hose’ on full blast, ‘rewriting what we thought we knew’ about alien star systems
Researchers have discovered that interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS has been shedding water, providing insights into the building blocks of life outside of our solar system and the evolution of interstellar comets.

Scientists discover gold nanoparticles hidden in spruce tree needles
Spruce tree needles contain tiny gold particles — and they could indicate large gold deposits beneath the surface.

*The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided to award the Nobel Peace Prize for 2025 to Maria Corina Machado “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.” Read more.

Happy Thanksgiving!
Thanksgiving in Canada has generally been about celebrating the fall harvest and giving thanks for the food it provides before the cold season sets in. Why do Canadians celebrate Thanksgiving in October, and what do they traditionally eat?

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Karma Valley, Tibet
Hikers in deep snow at Tangxiang camp in the Karma Valley
Photograph: Courtesy of FeiFei/AFP/Getty Images

Dunhuang, China
Tourists ride camels at Mingsha Mountain and Crescent Spring scenic spot during the holiday for National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival on 6 October in Gansu province
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images

Hitting the mall … a bull elk joins other elk in wandering through the parking lot of a shopping centre in Estes Park, near the Rocky Mountain national park, Colorado, US
Photograph: David Zalubowski/AP
Market Closes for October 10^th , 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45479.60	-878.82
		-1.90
S&P 500	6552.51	-182.60
		-2.71%
NASDAQ	22204.43	-820.20
		-3.56%
TSX	29850.89	-419.09
		-1.38%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	48088.80	-491.64
		-1.01%
HANG SENG	26290.32	-462.27
		-1.73%
SENSEX	82500.82	+328.72
		+0.40%
FTSE 100*	9427.47	-81.93
		-0.86%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.169	3.203
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.673	3.721
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0322	4.1384
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6187	4.7212

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7138	0.7133
US $	1.4009	1.4019

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6276	0.6144
US $	1.1617	0.8608

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	4019.25	4040.05
Oil
WTI Crude Future	58.90	61.51

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1962, the Self-Employed Individual Retirement Tax Act became U.S. law, creating the first retirement account that an individual can control and determine on their own.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 1.4%, or 419.09 to 29,850.89 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 3% on April 10.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 143 of 214 shares fell, while 70 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 8.0%.
Baytex Energy Corp. had the largest drop, falling 8.9%.

Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 12 times. The next day, it declined six times for an average 1.8% and advanced six times for an average 1.7%
* This year, the index rose 21%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index fell 2%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended April 4
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.7% below its 52-week high on Oct. 6, 2025 and 34.3% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.84t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.82% compared with 7.44% in the previous session and the average of 7.40% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology| -188.6768| -5.8| 0/9
Financials | -121.7703| -1.3| 6/18
Energy | -90.6136| -1.9| 3/36
Industrials | -21.5779| -0.6| 9/20
Materials | -15.4986| -0.3| 21/29
Health Care | -2.5168| -3.0| 0/4
Consumer Discretionary| -2.4699| -0.3| 3/6
Real Estate | -2.4041| -0.5| 8/11
Communication Services| 6.9257| 1.1| 5/0
Utilities | 9.3342| 0.9| 9/5
Consumer Staples | 10.1898| 1.0| 6/5
Shopify | -157.5000| -8.0| 7.5| 38.2
Brookfield Corp | -42.6200| -4.5| -11.5| 9.5
Canadian Natural | Resources | -27.8600| -4.2| -15.0| -0.9
Waste Connections | 5.7910| 1.3| -16.9| -1.9
Wheaton Precious | Metals | 8.4300| 1.8| -25.9| 82.5
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 11.7200| 1.5| -44.6| 104.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed Friday under the 30,000 level for the first time this month after losing more than 650 points over the last two sessions as investors shed risk and tried to work out what today’s “quirky” September jobs report will mean in terms of the path forward on interest rates, and as the commodity index is seen remaining within its trading range in the weeks ahead.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 419.09 points, or 1.4%, at 29,850.99, adding to the 232 points lost Thursday and taking the index to its lowest closing level since the end of September.
Among sectors, most were lower with Info Tech down near 4.3%, Health Care down near 4%, Energy down 3.25% and Base Metals down 2.8%.
In contrast, both Telecoms and Utilities were both up near 1%.
Among individual stocks, clothier Aritzia (ATZ.TO) was up more than 8% as Stifel Canada raised its price target to $100, from $96, and reiterated its Buy rating on the company after its ninth consecutive earnings beat.
UBS raised its one year price target on Aritzia to $118, from $116, and also maintained its Buy rating.
On jobs and rates, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, published a note entitled ‘The BoC’s October Decision Might Still Be ‘Live’ Despite A Quirky Jobs Report’ in which he noted Canada gained 60,000 jobs in September with “some decent details”.
But Holt said ‘seasonality quirks’ should dampen confidence in the data. For one, he noted, there was an unusually light month over month NSA drop in a month “that’s usually much bigger”.
Holt said: “That’s the second year in a row when that’s happened.
In fact, the month of September has seen the strongest seasonally unadjusted readings, either the biggest gains or the smallest dips, for overall employment on record in each of the pandemic and post-pandemic years from 2020 through to 2025… Is this because of changes in seasonal hiring patterns that are genuine in nature only since the pandemic, or that are not being properly controlled?”
That, Holt added, is why October’s BoC decision “may still be live”.
Elsewhere, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, noted year to date job growth is 22,000; the unemployment rate held steady at 7.1%, its highest level since 2016 outside the pandemic; and the employment rate ticked up by 0.1 basis points (bps) to 60.6% following consecutive declines in July and August.
But despite these favorable results, Doyle also noted actual hours worked contracted -0.2% MoM and remains on a downtrend YoY.
“Canada’s labour market is likely to continue to struggle in the near-term, and we suspect a modest further rise in unemployment through year-end,” he said.
Macquarie continues to expect the next 25 bps rate cut on Oct. 29, although the OIS market probability fell on this release to near 40%.
It noted the eventual decision will likely be shaped by the release of the Business Outlook Survey on Oct. 20 and the Consumer Price Index on Oct. 21.
Meanwhile, this week’s issue of ‘Technicals with Dave’ is focused on commodities.
In it, Rosenberg Research noted the S&P GSCI Commodity Index remains in a trading range defined by 570-575 chart resistance and a virtually horizontal 2021-2025 support trendline that is currently at 515.91.
To put the virtually horizontal description into context, the research noted the line was at 514.71 five weeks ago in the last commentary.
“Not surprisingly,” the research said, “the weekly Coppock Curve has been engaged in its own trading range on either side of the neutral zero line.
The indicator is currently attempting to bottom just below the zero line.
At this point, any subsequent bullish bias does not appear likely to persist much beyond late November.
This shorter-than-normal lifespan suggests that the commodity index will remain within its trading range in the weeks ahead.”
Of commodities today, gold pushed back above the US$4,000 mark again on a weaker dollar and lower treasury yields following a day-prior drop as traders took profits from Wednesday’s record close.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $52.70 to $4,025.30 per ounce, pushing higher after posting the first drop in five sessions on Thursday, retreating from the Oct. 8 record high of $4,070.50.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to a five-month low, extending losses for a second day as traders priced in lower geopolitical risk following a U.S.-backed ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza and the threat of rising supply.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $2.61 to settle at $58.90 per barrel, the lowest since May 7, while December Brent oil was last seen down $2.49 to $62.73.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Flaring trade tensions between the US and China sent shockwaves across markets Friday, hammering stocks, oil and crypto while spurring a dash for the perceived safety of Treasuries and gold.
President Donald Trump’s threat of a “massive increase” in China tariffs shook Wall Street at the end of an already- volatile week that saw concern build about a bubble in artificial-intelligence companies.
His remarks sent the S&P 500 down 2.7%.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 lost 3.5%.
The dollar slid at the end of its best week this year. Crude plunged over 4%.
Trump said he saw “no reason” to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, citing recent “hostile” export controls.
His social- media post followed a series of moves by both the US and China to potentially curb flows of technology and materials between the countries — all ahead of the presidents’ planned meeting in Asia later this month.
“That was clearly not something traders wanted to hear.
Things got ugly quickly,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers in a note titled “Tariff Rug Pull.”
“The reactions may say as much about recent market complacency as they do about the policy ramifications.”
Big downward moves in risky assets have been a rarity of late, which may itself be a factor in Friday’s jarring reaction.
Since the tariff-fueled meltdown in April, the S&P 500 has surged on optimism about AI and hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The gauge is trading near one of its highest valuations in 25 years — leaving a thin cushion for bad news.
The S&P 500 saw its worst day since April.
In another sign of stress, a key gauge of volatility – the VIX – topped 21.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries sank 11 basis points to 4.03%.
Bitcoin dropped about 5.5%. Commodities from copper to soybeans, wheat and cotton slumped.
“Throughout the summer, greed has far outpaced fear in the US equity market, and the high level of complacency leaves investors vulnerable,” said Michael O’Rourke at JonesTrading.
“The selloff has the potential to evolve into a larger correction, especially if the US-China trade truce is over.”
Trump’s post follows a series of moves by both the US and China to potentially curb flows of technology and materials between the countries — which had been seen as ways to gain an edge ahead of the presidents’ planned meeting in Asia.
“This is a very dangerous moment for global supply chains, including those powering AI, but it is important to note that neither side has yet implemented its threatened measures,” said Michael Hirson and Houze Song at 22V Research.
“There is still a window to back down, and Trump faces significant political risks if he follows through on his threats.”
Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management noted that October lived up to its reputation as one of the most volatile months and the selloff that many were expecting has finally arrived.
“More volatility is possible in the coming weeks, but absent a true hit to the economy, the market should stage a rebound later this year, and October dip-buyers could be vindicated by year-end,” he said.
To Michael Bailey at FBB Capital Partners, perhaps investors are using the new Trump tariff threats as cover for selling the AI complex, which has been “living on an island” this year, looking at earnings growth.
“In other words, tariffs have done very little to slow the breakneck pace of AI-related companies, so today’s new tariff concerns are a bit surprising,” he said.
From a technical standpoint, Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott says Friday’s pullback is not a complete surprise.
“We were anticipating air pockets of this or similar nature,” he noted, adding that would be “due to recent overbought conditions, negative divergences in price, momentum, and breadth, crowded positioning, and high headline risk.”
When staring down the face of a repricing such as this, Wantrobski says it is important to remember that in the history of the S&P 500, there was never a single instance where it declined more than 20% twice in one calendar year over two separate occasions.
In addition, he noted that with the selloff, many short- term trading charts are being pressed into “moderately oversold” territory, which could signal potential bounces over the coming days.
“We continue to anticipate corrective activity in the magnitude of 5% to 10% from the recent highs due to overbought chart conditions across multiple time frames,” Wantrobski said.
“But our model is not calling for structural downturn in the US equity cycle for 2025.”
Trade tensions escalated at a time when calls for a breather in the equity rally are growing, with the S&P 500 almost doubling in three years.
“With markets already ripe for a pull back, the latest trade threats to China from President Trump today were the tipping point to a broad selloff in equities,” said Charlie Ripley at Allianz Investment Management.
For investors, Ripley noted that it’s important to recall that big threats don’t always turn into big actions.
Despite the severity of Friday’s rout, the shift in sentiment on US trade relations with China is unlikely to upend the fundamentals supporting the market’s recent run up, he added.
The market ebullience has been so pronounced that investors have recently flocked into everything from stocks to bonds and cryptocurrencies.
Global equity funds attracted $20 billion in the week through Oct. 8, while $25.6 billion flowed into bonds, Bank of America Corp. said, citing EPFR Global data.
Crypto funds had inflows of $5.5 billion.
Even cash funds saw additions of almost $73 billion, suggesting investors still have plenty of dry powder.
As traders rushed to the perceived safety of bonds on Friday, Treasuries rose across maturities.
“Investors are clamoring for safe havens as a heavy levy increase could weigh on corporate earnings and the economic outlook,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
“The bigger effect was the reversal of equities.
Is this the start of a Liberation Day Two?” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“But that gave the bond markets more of a bid.”
The tariff threat and the market reaction to it hearkened back to US financial-market behavior in April, when the Trump administration rolled out an agenda of sweeping levies that sent the stock market into a tailspin, stoking demand for Treasuries.
The dollar dropped against most of its developed-market peers Friday, while climbing about 1% this week.

Corporate Highlights:
* Shipments from Tesla Inc.’s Shanghai factory increased in September as China’s car market kicks off its busy sales period and automakers start their final push to meet annual targets.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google became the first company to be designated with so called strategic market status in the UK, exposing the US firm’s online search and advertising business to a closer scrutiny by the country’s antitrust watchdog.
* China slapped new port fees on US ships and started an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm Inc., the latest in a string of tit-for-tat moves as Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump jockey for leverage before a key meeting to discuss trade and other issues.
* Chevron Corp. is seeking permission to drill as many as 10 wells offshore Namibia, one of the busiest exploration hotspots for oil and gas in Africa.
* Mosaic Co. said that third-quarter phosphate production fell below what management expected, citing mechanical issues at one plant and utility interruptions at another. Preliminary sales volumes for phosphates fell short of what analysts expected.
* Leaders at AI computing company CoreWeave Inc. sold shares worth more than $1 billion after a lockup on the stock lifted in mid-August, putting them among the top 10 individual insider sellers of the third quarter.
* AstraZeneca Plc is expected to announce a deal with President Donald Trump to slash drug prices, people familiar with the plans said, making it the second pharmaceutical company to strike an agreement to advance one of the administration’s key health priorities.
* Stellantis NV’s third-quarter shipments climbed 13%, led by a rise in North America, pointing to a recovery after the ailing carmaker worked down inventory in the US.
* Carlyle Inc. agreed to take control of BASF SE’s coatings business, creating a standalone company with an enterprise value of €7.7 billion ($8.9 billion).
* BlackRock Inc.’s actively managed funds are set to accept BBVA SA’s takeover bid for Banco Sabadell SA and tender their shares as the offer period is about to end, according to people familiar with the matter.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“President Trump’s escalating rhetoric on China, on the back of rising signs of stress in credit and increased concerns over a tech bubble, are a toxic combination that could derail  stocks further just as a new earnings season gets underway.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 2.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9%
* The MSCI World Index fell 2.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 3.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 3%
Currencie
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1619
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3360
* The Japanese yen rose 1.2% to 151.19 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 5.6% to $114,341.45
* Ether fell 11% to $3,870
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 11 basis points to 4.03%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.64%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.67%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.3% to $58.84 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,010.09 an ounce

–With assistance from Denitsa Tsekova and Vildana Hajric.

Have a lovely long weekend.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” — Albert Einstein

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve!
Carolann is away from the office attending the Bloomberg Screentime 2025 Conference. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On Oct. 9, 1446 Korean Hangul alphabet is first published by King Sejong the Great
On Oct. 9, 1876 First two-way telephone conversation over outdoor wires
On Oct. 9, 1941 US President Franklin D. Roosevelt approves an atomic program that would become the Manhattan Project
On Oct. 9, 1975 Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov wins the Nobel Peace Prize
On Oct. 9, 2006 Google Inc. announced it was snapping up YouTube Inc. for $1.65 billion in a stock deal. Go to article

James Webb telescope finds ‘remarkable’ evidence that a black hole plowed through a galaxy, leaving an enormous scar behind
Using JWST and ALMA data, astronomers have spotted a superlong and narrow ‘galactic contrail,’ possibly produced by a black hole. The gas- and dust-rich tail is 20,000 light-years long but just 650 light-years wide.

Psychedelic beer may have helped pre-Inca empire in Peru schmooze elite outsiders and consolidate power
The Wari used beer mixed with psychedelics to help build an empire in Peru around 1,200 years ago, a new study suggests.

Scientists invent ‘Pulse-Fi’ prototype — a Wi-Fi heart rate monitor that’s cheaper to set up than the best wearable devices
Engineers are in the early stages of harnessing Wi-Fi as a way to monitor heart rates, but don’t expect to use your home router anytime soon.

Climbing Europe’s highest sand dune is both peculiar and rewarding
Watch this video to see what it’s like to trek up the Dune du Pilat.

The rise of ‘cozy coloring’
There’s a new trend in adult coloring — and it may help draw you in for a relaxing, low-pressure evening.

Bon appétit: Tucked away in Bordeaux’s countryside, a discreet farm nurtures an indulgence from start to finish. Often paired well with crème fraîche, the delicacy comes from sturgeon fish. Hint: we’re not talking pastry!
The 44 best products CNN tried last month
In September, our editors tried an abundance of products from fall fashion staples and durable phone cases to comfortable walking shoes. Check out the full list of items we can’t stop gushing about.

John Lennon, b. 1940. 🎶

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Madrid, Spain
Portrait of Philip IV on Horseback by Diego Velázquez is unveiled after its restoration at the Prado Museum
Photograph: ZIPI/EPA

London, UK
The exhibition Wayne Thiebaud: American Still Life will open at the Courtauld Gallery in Somerset House on Friday, displaying the artist’s work in the UK for the first time
Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

​​​​​​​London, UK
One of 10 stamps released to mark the 90th anniversary of the board game Monopoly
Photograph: Royal Mail/PA
Market Closes for October 9^th , 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46358.42	-243.36
		-0.52
S&P 500	6735.11	-18.61
		-0.28%
NASDAQ	23024.63	-18.75
		-0.08%
TSX	30269.98	-232.01
		-0.76%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	48580.44	+845.45
		+1.77%
HANG SENG	26752.59	-76.87
		-0.29%
SENSEX	82172.10	+398.44
		+0.49%
FTSE 100*	9509.40	-39.47
		-0.41%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.203	3.190
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.721	3.725
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1384	4.1171
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7212	4.7075

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7133	0.7167
US $	1.4019	1.3952

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6212	0.6168
US $	1.1564	0.8647

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	4040.05	3979.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.51	62.55

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1953, trading on the New York Stock Exchange totaled just 900,000 shares. It was the last day on which total daily trading volume was less than 1 million shares.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.8% at 30,269.98 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.9% on Aug.
1 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 164 of 214 shares fell, while 48 rose.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.2%.
Endeavour Silver Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.8%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* So far this week, the index fell 0.7%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Aug. 1
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on Oct. 6, 2025 and 36.2% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and rose 4.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 on a trailing basis and 18.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.87t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.44% compared with 6.83% in the previous session and the average of 7.44% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -147.6802| -2.8| 4/47
Industrials | -37.5918| -1.1| 7/21
Energy | -34.9586| -0.7| 9/30
Consumer Discretionary| -10.5069| -1.1| 0/9
Utilities | -4.8913| -0.4| 3/11
Real Estate | -1.9650| -0.4| 2/16
Financials | -1.8120| 0.0| 6/18
Information Technology| -0.7190| 0.0| 5/4
Health Care | -0.1482| -0.2| 2/2
Consumer Staples | 0.9348| 0.1| 5/6
Communication Services| 7.3438| 1.2| 5/0
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | -34.5800| -4.2| -0.6| 101.7
Shopify | -21.6400| -1.1| -43.8| 50.3
Franco-Nevada | -17.4100| -4.3| -7.9| 69.1
Celestica | 7.0350| 2.5| -40.3| 174.8
Constellation | Software | 11.2200| 2.1| -40.0| -11.1
RBC | 12.7600| 0.6| -17.9| 17.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange dived Thursday on profit taking after a series of recent record closes, on deflated commodity prices while some market watchers, including Scotia Economics, expect that U.S. tariffs will continue to weigh on growth for the foreseeable future.
The S&P/TSX Composite closed down 232 points, or 0.75%, to 30,269.98, although sectors were mixed.
Industrials was the biggest loser, down 1%, while no other sector eased by as much as 0.5%.
Among gainers, the Battery Metals Index was up 4.75% and Telecom up 1.2%
Related to Industrials, Industry Minister Melanie Joly on Thursday detailed Canada’s updated industrial strategy and how the governing Liberals plan to bolster key sectors, including steel, aluminum, lumber and auto, all of which are struggling under U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
In other sector news, a senior official at the Bank of Canada, senior deputy governor Carolyn Roger, called for more competition in the banking sector to better serve Canadians and the economy in a speech at the Canadian Club in Toronto on Thursday morning.
On trade matters, RBC Economics noted the economic impact of U.S. policy has not only had a larger impact on trade-sensitive sectors and regions, concentrated in the manufacturing sector to date, but also across the income and wealth distribution of households.
In Canada, RBC said, the household wealth gap widened during Q2 as the housing market’s weaker performance limited gains for the least wealthy households.
Meanwhile, it added, wealthier households saw larger benefits from the strong rebound in the equity markets following a weak Q1.
With a deeper look into trade, Scotia Economics published a ‘Monthly Trade Publication on Canada-US Trade’ for August 2025.
In its Scotia noted Canada’s goods exports fell back again in August, after having improved slightly in the prior three months following the large drop in April.
Exports fell by 3.0% and imports increased by 0.9%, lifting the goods trade deficit to $6.3 billion.
The export categories with the largest declines in August were metals, led by unwrought gold, industrial machinery and parts, forestry products, and motor vehicles and parts.
On a year over year basis, Scotia noted, Canadian goods exports were down 5.5% in August, and down 5.2% on average over the last three months (Jun-Aug), with the largest percentage declines in industrial chemicals, metals, energy products, and forestry products.
Imports were up 1.7% in August, and up 1.5% on average since June.
It also noted the share of Canadian exports bound for the United States declined from 76% in 2024 to 72% in August, driven by a marked decline in exports to the U.S. in 2025 and only modest growth in exports to other countries.
Exports to the U.S. were down 3.4% m/m and 8.0% y/y.
Exports to other countries fell 2.0% m/m but were up 1.8% y/y.
Scotia noted Canada’s trade in services with the U.S. is much smaller than trade in goods but has been much more stable.
It has even improved from a small deficit at the end of 2024 to a surplus of $0.3 billion as of August, thanks to further growth in commercial services exports and a 10% decline in travel imports (i.e., international vacations).
Meanwhile, Scotia noted, after widening drastically early in the year on tariff-front-running imports, the U.S. trade deficit has returned to roughly its 2024 level.
However, there have been compositional changes to U.S. trade flows.
As of July, U.S. imports were running significantly lower year over year from Canada, down 10%, the E.U., down 11%, and China, down 35%, and higher from Mexico, up 11%, and the rest of the world, up 21%.
Scotia also noted U.S. customs data show the proportion of Canadian goods imported into the United States facing tariffs has stabilized at near 10%, down from 20%, due to the increased incentive for firms to submit CUSMA compliance paperwork.
Scotia said: “While uncertainty and effective tariff rates have come down from the peaks of the spring, they remain elevated and continue to weigh on growth around the world.
In addition, new U.S. tariff announcements on pharmaceuticals, furniture, and heavy trucks demonstrate the continued fluidity of the global trade landscape.”
It also said: “Canada continues to benefit from a low effective tariff rate on exports to the U.S. (4.6% is our estimate) thanks to most of our trade continuing on a free-trade basis under CUSMA.
However, most of the Canadian industries impacted by the sectoral tariffs have seen clear export declines — especially steel, aluminum, and forestry products.”
Scotia added: “Some relief for Canada from some of the sectoral tariffs, as is apparently under discussion, would provide a welcome boost to these industries, but it is difficult to be very confident that the relief would be permanently maintained and/or not offset by new tariffs. As a result, we expect that U.S. tariffs will continue to weigh on growth for the foreseeable future.”
Of commodities today, gold had moved down from a record high by midafternoon Thursday as traders took profits while the dollar rose to a two-month high.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $77.00 to US$3,993.50 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas reduced tensions in the Middle East, lowering the geopolitical risk premium on the commodity.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $1.04 to settle at $61.51 per barrel, while December Brent oil was last seen down $1.13 to $65.15.

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s relentless surge from April’s meltdown keeps showing signs that the stock market is overstretched, spurring calls for a breather at a time when the classic dip-buying strategy stays firmly in place.
Nobody needs to look hard to find warnings that the market looks frothy after a 36% surge from April’s nadir pushed valuations to levels associated with periods of exuberance.
While the AI euphoria has kept the party going for equities, recent chatter about a bubble forming in the group that has powered the bull market has drawn the attention from investors around the world.
“While some areas of the market appear overheated, overall sentiment does not reflect the excessive optimism often seen at market peaks,” said Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services Inc.
“Still, the extended stretch without a meaningful pullback leaves the market more sensitive to negative surprises.”
At Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson notes it’s prudent to be vigilant when it comes to stocks that appear short-term stretched to the upside.
Underlying market breadth is showing early signs of fatigue, which may lead to a consolidation phase, he said.
The S&P 500 fell to around 6,735. US 10-year yields rose three basis points to 4.14%.
The dollar notched a 10-week high.
Oil sank as Middle East tensions cooled.
Lerner at Truist noted that this is the 11th bull market in stocks since 1957, with the S&P 500 up about 90% from its October 2022 lows — which is below the median gain seen in prior ones.
Of the 10 previous bull markets, seven extended beyond three years, he noted.
Although valuations are elevated and risks persist, the combination of continued economic growth, resilient corporate profits, and a supportive policy backdrop provides a solid foundation for maintaining a constructive stance heading into the fourth year of this cycle, Lerner added.
“It always seems like a sucker’s bet to put any money into the market when it’s trading at all-time highs,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
“As the seemingly intelligent pundits will say, the easy money has been made (even though they were never out there a year ago saying the easy money is about to be made).”
Since 1953, when the five-day trading week in its current form started, however, the S&P 500’s historical returns following a close at all-time highs are only slightly less positive than its average return for all periods since 1953, Bespoke said.
“The best strategy for passive investors, especially, is not to overthink things,” the strategists noted.
Worries have been compounding for the better half of the bull market in US stocks specifically around the concentration of Big Tech names that have driven the S&P 500’s valuation to bubble-like levels.
While valuations aren’t necessarily an ideal market-timing tool, with the group of “Magnificent Seven” megacaps surging over 260% since the start of the artificial-intelligence frenzy in late 2022, there’s been growing debate over how much further the AI trade can fuel the rally in equities.
Never before has so much money been spent so rapidly on a technology that, for all its potential, remains largely unproven as an avenue for profit-making.
And often, these investments can be traced back to two leading firms: Nvidia Corp. and OpenAI.
While there have been some concerns that “circular” deals are creating a bubble, there’s not much evidence that suggests one is about to burst.
“Is AI a bubble? Not yet, at least not to the extent that I think a ‘pop’ is imminent,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
“This isn’t a valuation bubble like we saw with Pets.com and others in the late 1990s.
It’s a capital expenditure bubble.”
Profit-Driven Big Tech Rally Is ‘Not a Bubble’: Equity Insight
There’s so much money being spent (and so much more promised to be spent) on AI infrastructure that it has become a large part of the US economy and the biggest driver of the multi-year bull market, he noted.
The key to all this is “adoption,” Essaye added.
“When will regular people and businesses use AI the way we all (finally) used the internet to create money for thousands of varied companies? For the stock market, the answer is clear: The sooner, the better, and the clock is ticking,” he said.
“Altogether, these deals point to hundreds of billions in investment commitments, reinforcing the sector’s rapid capital deployment and pace of innovation,” said Ulrike Hoffmann- Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“At the same time, market concern over ‘circular investments’ within AI companies and a potential AI-led stock market bubble has grown louder.”
While she agrees that the scale of the rally means volatility could pick up — and one should remain alert to signs of froth — she sees several compelling reasons for investors to stay engaged with the AI theme.
“So while the AI trade is not without its risks, we see compelling reasons to stay engaged.
In our view, the rally remains underpinned by solid fundamentals, accelerating adoption, and a still-favorable macro environment,” she said.
“One of the main reasons the AI bubble talk is misplaced is that the leading spenders continue to enjoy increased earnings power, according to Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
“These aren’t the dot-com companies of a quarter-century ago that didn’t have earnings, or even viable business models,” he said.
“That doesn’t mean the market won’t have setbacks, though. Investors may want to take a look at quality dividend- growth stocks.”
They’ve been out of favor for a while, but they could be a decent hedge if the market experiences a consolidation in the near term, Skelly concluded.
Even after a series of records to all-time highs, stock positioning data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. suggests some investors including hedge funds are holding back.
The equity beta of monthly reporting Macro hedge funds — an indicator of their exposure — remains modestly negative despite becoming slightly less so in recent months, the team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said.
The strategists added that speculative positioning in US equity futures is relatively close to their long-run median, after having been well above the median in 2024 and in the first quarter of 2025. This signals that overall exposure is only close to historical average rather than extended.
Some “light profit-taking” is understandable ahead of earnings season, but sentiment is still broadly positive, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“Active traders continue to buy the dips, keeping momentum alive.
You can see this in the shallow retracements and the steady string of record highs across the major indices. In this environment, looking for bearish setups feels counterintuitive – the market simply isn’t giving short-sellers much to work with,” he said.
To Razaqzada, the recent signals don’t necessarily point to an imminent selloff, but they do suggest that markets may need a breather – either through sideways consolidation or a modest pullback.
“For now, though, the underlying message remains the same: the trend is your friend. If you’re already long, there’s no reason to panic.
If you’re not, patience may be the better play – wait for a pullback, then consider buying the dip.”
He also noted that the question now is whether the rally still legs has as we move into earnings season.
“With most economic data releases on hold due to the government shutdown, company earnings may have even more of an impact on market direction than usual.
And as we get ready to kick off the third-quarter earnings season, it’s expected to bring another strong set of results,” said Liz Thomas at SoFi.
One of the datasets that will be critical to watch is profit margins amid persistent debate around the possible effect of tariffs on company results, she said.
From a sector perspective, some of the strongest margins are expected to come from technology and communications, Thomas noted.
“In conclusion, third-quarter earnings season looks to be another set of strong results with companies likely surpassing expectations broadly,”she said.
“If that ends up being the case, the rally has further support and the already high valuations of many stocks can remain high.”
With the onset of reporting season approaching, Ryan Grabinski at Strategas noted that we’ll be in the “peak buyback blackout window” over the next two weeks.
“This potentially opens up the window for a period of weakness when accounting for growth fears,” he said.
“On a positive note, the corporate bid should reassert itself by early November as we head into year end.”
US stocks are likely to continue climbing into year-end as robust corporate earnings — particularly in megacap technology giants — keep driving shares higher, according to Nuveen Asset Management’s chief investment officer.
For equities, the fourth quarter “is normally a strong quarter, especially when we’re up substantially year to date,” Saira Malik said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
“So odds are in your favor for this rally to continue.”

Corporate Highlights:
* The US has approved several billion dollars worth of Nvidia Corp. chip exports to the United Arab Emirates, an initial step in implementing a controversial deal that could serve as a blueprint for American AI statecraft.
* Microsoft Corp.’s data-center crunch will continue for longer than the company has previously outlined, underscoring the software giant’s struggles to keep up with cloud demand.
* OpenAI has raised concerns with European Union antitrust enforcers over potentially harmful conduct by the likes of Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Microsoft and Apple Inc.
* Google’s cloud unit is launching an artificial intelligence platform called Gemini Enterprise that it hopes will reach everyday workers, setting up a deeper competition with Microsoft and OpenAI for business tools.
* Amazon.com Inc. is rolling out an updated version of its main artificial intelligence tool for business, the latest effort to grab a slice of the market for software designed to automate and speed up office work.
* US auto safety regulators are investigating Tesla Inc. over incidents in which its vehicles drove through red lights and violated other traffic laws while using the company’s partial- automation software.
* Intel Corp., the embattled chipmaker now backed by the US government, introduced new products and manufacturing technology that are central to its turnaround bid.
* Salesforce Inc. is launching a product for information technology management, moving into a new area for the company’s software and deepening its competition with ServiceNow Inc.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. plans to acquire a 45-doctor medical practice in Massachusetts in a sign that its Optum division will keep adding doctors despite turmoil in the business.
* Paramount Skydance Corp. Chief Executive Officer David Ellison, who is reportedly weighing a merger with Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., said he sees a lot of opportunity for consolidation in the industry.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.’s film chiefs Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy, fresh off the renewal of their contracts, confirmed that the studio will make a sequel to this year’s hit A Minecraft Movie.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. predicted continued strong demand into next year after reporting better-than-expected earnings for the third quarter, helped by leisure travelers splurging on premium seats and a rebound in corporate travel.
* Citigroup Inc. rejected an offer from mining magnate German Larrea’s conglomerate, Grupo Mexico SAB, to acquire its Grupo Financiero Banamex business.
* Lyft Inc. is partnering with autonomous vehicle developer Tensor Auto Inc. to deploy a fleet of hundreds of robotaxis in Europe and North America starting in 2027.
* PepsiCo Inc. said it is working to cut costs and overhaul its portfolio to meet consumers’ shifting tastes, while it engages in discussions with an activist investor.
* Costco Wholesale Corp. rose after the warehouse club reported comparable sales growth that beat analyst estimates for September, helped by a rise in both foot traffic and amount spent per customer.
* The Trump administration is considering whether to take a major step toward restricting the US operations of TP-Link Systems Inc., a China-linked router-maker whose Wi-Fi equipment is popular in the American market, according to people familiar with the matter.
* The rally in shares of US miners of rare-earth materials got a boost Thursday after a China curb on exports of the minerals fueled bets that the American industry will benefit — and potentially spur additional investments from the federal government.
* Marathon Asset Management LP bought the term loan of collapsed First Brands Group at around 40 cents on the dollar and sees it as a “great company” with a bad balance sheet, Chief Executive Officer Bruce Richards said.
* Novo Nordisk A/S agreed to buy Akero Therapeutics Inc. for as much as $5.2 billion to expand its portfolio in a type of liver disease that’s linked to obesity.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a 30% increase in its third-quarter sales as major US tech companies continued to make multibillion-dollar bets on AI.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.6% to $1.1563
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.3300
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 153.07 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $121,060.06
* Ether fell 3.6% to $4,341.05
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.14%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.75%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.60%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.73%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.7% to $61.47 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.6% to $3,978.15 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
” Move fast with stable infrastructure.”– Mark Elliot Zuckerberg

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office attending the Bloomberg Screentime 2025 Conference. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On Oct. 8, 1480 Great Stand on the Ugra River: Standoff between forces of Akhmat Khan, Khan of the Great Horde, and Ivan III, Grand Prince of all Rus, ends with a Tatar-Mongol retreat, leading to the disintegration of the Horde
On Oct. 8, 1645 First hospital in Montreal, Quebec, the Hôtel-Dieu de Montréal, is founded by nurse Jeanne Mance
On Oct. 8, 1945 President Harry S. Truman announced that the secret of the atomic bomb would be shared only with Britain and Canada.
On Oct. 8, 2004 Lifestyle guru Martha Stewart reported to prison to begin serving a sentence for lying about a stock sale. Go to article

The Red Sea experienced ‘one of the most extreme environmental events on Earth’ 6 million years ago
The Red Sea became a desert about 6.2 million years ago, before a massive flood from the Indian Ocean turned it into a waterway again.

‘Closest view’ yet of interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS captured by Mars orbiter
The European Space Agency’s ExoMars orbiter has captured the closest view yet of the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS. The images reveal the comet’s bright coma but show no signs of a tail.

‘Harry Potter’ materials land three scientists Nobel Prize in chemistry
Researchers have won the 2025 Nobel Prize in Chemistry “for the development of metal–organic frameworks.”

Bear enters Japanese supermarket and pounces on customer
Two people were injured Tuesday when a bear rampaged through the sushi section of a Japanese supermarket.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Chuzhou, China
Drivers merge on to a motorway after passing through a toll station as they make their way home at the end of a national holiday
Photograph: STR/AFP/Getty Images

London, UK
Sleeping Head by Lucian Freud on display at Christie’s auction house, where it is expected to fetch between £2m and £3m
Photograph: Yui Mok/PA

​​​​​​​New York, US
The harvest supermoon rises behind the Statue of Liberty and the Brooklyn skyline
Photograph: Adam Gray/AP
Market Closes for October 8^th , 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46601.78	-1.20
		—
S&P 500	6753.72	+39.13
		+0.58%
NASDAQ	23043.38	+255.02
		+1.12%
TSX	30501.99	+150.27
		+0.50%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	47734.99	-215.89
		-0.45%
HANG SENG	26829.46	-128.31
		-0.48%
SENSEX	81773.66	-153.09
		-0.19%
FTSE 100*	9548.87	+65.29
		+0.69%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.190	3.183
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.725	3.703
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1171	4.1230
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7075	4.7231

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7167	0.7169
US $	1.3952	1.3948

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6223	0.6164
US $	1.1627	0.8600

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3979.00	3949.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.55	61.73

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1871, the Great Chicago Fire began, destroying much of the city’s downtown. Real estate prices exploded, capital poured into the city and Chicago was reborn as the “city of the big shoulders,” with skyscrapers of brick and stone.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 30,501.99 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.6%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.3%.
First Majestic Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 11.3%.
Today, 133 of 214 shares rose, while 78 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.6% below its 52-week high on Oct. 6, 2025 and 37.2% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.3% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6 on a trailing basis and 19 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.85t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.83% compared with 6.79% in the previous session and the average of 7.54% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 93.2738| 1.8| 44/7
Information Technology | 91.2294| 2.9| 9/0
Industrials | 14.6176| 0.4| 22/7
Utilities | 3.2406| 0.3| 6/8
Consumer Staples | 1.2178| 0.1| 7/4
Health Care | -0.3415| -0.4| 1/3
Consumer Discretionary | -0.8774| -0.1| 7/2
Real Estate | -2.8892| -0.6| 3/15
Communication Services | -7.0392| -1.1| 1/4
Energy | -15.8801| -0.3| 20/18
Financials | -26.2893| -0.3| 13/10
Shopify | 62.3700| 3.3| -32.2| 51.9
Celestica | 19.0600| 7.2| 51.0| 168.2
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 16.0100| 2.0| -32.3| 110.4
RBC | -10.8000| -0.5| 23.8| 16.8
CIBC | -10.8400| -1.5| -28.8| 23.4
Bank of Montreal | -10.8500| -1.2| 21.9| 27.2
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday rebounded from yesterday’s blip, a first loss in seven sessions, buoyed by elevated commodity prices, even as market watchers are divided on whether or not Canada Prime Minister, Mark Carney, had a successful meeting on trade matters with U.S. President, Donald Trump, yesterday.
Today, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 150.27 points or 0.5% at 30,501.99, leaving it just 30 points shy of Monday’s record close of 30,531.88.
Sectors were mixed, with Base Metals, boosted by record gold prices, up 3.4%, and Info Tech up near 3%.
Telecom was the biggest loser, down 1%.
In reference to gold, Rosenberg Research published a note today in which it said decomposing equity market returns across the main drivers revealed some notable trends and takeaways.
In it, the research said Canada, Japan, and India have seen the largest earnings lift.
It noted the TSX has seen fundamental tailwinds, 30% share of YTD returns, from the huge rally in gold, and thus the gold miners, as well as the banks, but added 60% has come from an expanding forward price earnings (P/E) multiple (from 15x to 17x).
On economics, The Canadian Press is reporting premiers remain at odds over how best to respond to U.S. tariffs, a day after Prime Minister Mark Carney left a meeting in Washington with U.S. President Donald Trump without announcing any breakthroughs on a trade deal.
Speaking at a conference in Toronto hosted by BMO and Eurasia Group, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he remains prepared to cut off shipments of energy, minerals and other exports if the United States refuses to relent on tariffs.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, also speaking at the U.S.-Canada Summit, said she still doesn’t support halting shipments south.
But CTV News is reporting U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is dismissing any prospect of a comprehensive auto deal with Canada, according to three sources in the room when he made the comments.
Lutnick made the comments during a discussion under Chatham House Rules at the Eurasia Group’s Canada-U.S. Summit in Toronto on Wednesday, a day after the second in-person meeting in Washington between Trump and Carney.
According to the sources, Lutnick said the United States could continue buying parts from Canada, “but that’s about it.”
The U.S. has a 25% tariff on vehicles imported from Canada that are not compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) since April.
Meanwhile, one Macquarie strategist thought yesterday’s meeting between Trump and Carney “didn’t go as poorly as some… made it sound”.
After all, noted Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, Trump exhibited a fondness for Carney, which he never did for Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau.
“And if that’s the case,” Wizman said, “the long-term dis-inflationary overhang from U.S. import tariffs in Canada may eventually fade.
That’s an optimistic view, of course, for the CAD, relatively speaking.
It would mark the emergence from the very slow growth experienced by Canada in Q2, when GDP declined by 1.5%.”
Over the summer, the U.S. hiked its tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, with Canada introducing a 25% counter-tariff on U.S. steel and aluminum.
Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist at BMO Financial Group, said: “Surprisingly, despite hefty duties on steel, U.S. production has nary risen on a sustained basis, at least not through September.
This reflects two things: steel imports have yet to decline much; and, capacity utilization is close to its long-run mean, so production is likely near its short-term limit.
This suggests that until new capacity is added and production increases, pressure could build on steel prices when imports decline, as appeared to be the case in 2018-19.”
Of commodities today, gold continued its record run higher with its second day above the US$4,000 mark on high demand and buying pressure despite a higher dollar.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $59.30 to $4,063.70 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose for a fourth day, climbing on supply risks even as a report showed U.S. inventories rose above expectations last week amid fresh warnings the market is oversupplied.
WTI oil for November delivery closed up $0.82 to settle at US$62.55 per barrel, while December Brent oil was last seen up $0.83 to US$66.28.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A renewed wave of dip buying powered a rebound in stocks on speculation equities have more room to run after a brief respite in the six-month rally from the edge of a bear market.
The insatiable appetite for stocks that’s already driven the S&P 500 up over 35% from its April lows sent the benchmark to fresh all-time highs, energizing investors betting the bull market is nowhere near its end.
Momentum-chasing traders kept piling into equities after a series of records fueled by factors such as corporate resilience and the restart of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence has trumped recent calls around a bubble forming in the high-profile tech names that have led the rally.
“With price-to-earnings ratios for today’s tech giants still well below those of the tech firms at the peak of the dotcom bubble, we think the bull market remains intact,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The S&P 500 surpassed 6,750. The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.2%.
Nvidia Corp. led gains in megacaps as chief Jensen Huang told CNBC that demand for Blackwell chips is “really, really” high.
Cisco Systems Inc. is escalating competition with Broadcom Inc. in connecting AI data centers.
A gauge of small caps added 1%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.13%.
A $39 billion US debt sale saw demand falling slightly short of expectations.
The dollar hit the highest since August.
Gold topped $4,000.
With a slim economic calendar amid the US government shutdown, investors scoured the minutes of the latest Fed meeting.
Officials showed a willingness to lower rates further this year, but many expressed caution driven by concerns over inflation.
At Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Luis Alvarado says the Fed is clearly not on a preset path and data-dependency is now more necessary than before, especially as officials attempt to calibrate between conflicting goals.
“We still expect two more quarter-point rate cuts by the end of this year, and two more next year,” he noted.
Jeff Roach at LPL Financial noted that tariffs were the most talked about topic during the latest Fed meeting.
“Futures markets may turn out to be more accurate than the FOMC’s collective projections, especially if inflation consistently declines in 2026.
Investors should expect two more cuts this year but a pause at the January 2026 meeting,” he said.
At Evercore, Krishna Guha highlighted that “many” Fed officials noted the strong high-tech investment while “several” flagged the possibility that AI adoption could weaken labor demand.
And that would be a sign that AI macro debates are starting to break into the Fed policy discussion.
“There was no alarm about stock prices, and while stocks have accelerated higher since the September meeting, we continue to see no sign that the Fed leadership is prepared to shift focus from balancing labor and inflation risks to managing risks of market excess,” Guha said.
Despite headline risks, markets have been strikingly calm as investors continue to wait for a catalyst amid a dearth of economic data, noted Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
The S&P 500 hasn’t seen a move of at least 1% since August.
And an equity advance of the magnitude we’ve experienced in the past six months was seen in just five other instances since 1950, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
When US stocks hit a record in September in the past, they proceeded to rally in the fourth quarter, gaining 4.8% on average during that time, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac’s data going back to 1950.
Looking ahead, Sunday will mark the third year of the current bull market, with the S&P 500 almost doubling in the span.
“For much of this period, technical factors have led the rally, with demand from retail, institutional, foreign investors, and corporate management teams,” Hackett noted.
“More recently, fundamental factors have added to the enthusiasm.”
Among those, he cited accelerating economic and earnings growth, along with anticipation of fiscal and monetary tailwinds.
The ebullience driven by AI has spurred recent calls for consolidation on concerns about the rally being excessive after a $16 trillion surge in the S&P 500 from its April lows.
In fact, Wednesday’s bounce came in the aftermath of a mild pullback that halted a seven-day run for the benchmark.
“Those streaks didn’t even begin to illustrate how hot some sectors of the market have become, and you can’t fault investors for getting a little nervous,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
“In fact, it’s very encouraging. A little pain is good for the soul.”
To Peter Oppenheimer at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., it’s too early to be worried about a bubble in high-flying US technology stocks.
The strategist said the rally has been accompanied by robust earnings growth.
In past bubbles, the market was driven higher mainly by speculation.
Still, he reiterated his recommendation that investors seek diversification to avoid risks around a narrow US stock rally and higher competition in the AI space.
“Every little dip has been successfully ‘bought’ with both hands by investors for months now,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“It does indeed look like we’ll need further evidence that the colossal spending on AI is not going to produce any serious ROI for a long time before the stock market responds in a meaningfully negative way.”
While the market has experienced a significant rally, driven by AI and macro tailwinds, there are emerging signs of momentum divergence that require careful monitoring, according to Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“Investors should stay long, but remain vigilant, particularly regarding overextended stocks and a government shutdown that seems no closer to resolution,” he said.
“A brief period of consolidation or a mild pullback would be widely viewed as a buying opportunity.”
Bank of America Corp. clients were net sellers of US equities for the fourth-straight week, with outflows from both stocks and equity exchange-traded funds, according to strategist Jill Carey Hall.
‘Far Less Destruction’
Heavily concentrated markets are another lingering concern amongst market participants who draw parallels to the dotcom era, according to Jeff Buchbinder at LPL Financial.
He noted that the tech sector made up roughly 33% of the S&P 500 at the end of February 2000, which is just below the roughly 35% weight today. While market concentration is a “real risk,” valuations of top tech names seem more reasonable in comparison
to the late-1990s, he noted.
“The odds of an AI bubble that bursts are not zero, but today’s AI cycle is better capitalized than the 1990s telecom buildout and appears more durable and profitable in comparison,” Buchbinder said.
“AI is coming faster and probably will leave far less destruction in its wake.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI is raising more financing than initially planned, tapping backers including Nvidia Corp. to lift its ongoing funding round to $20 billion, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* Cisco Systems Inc. is releasing a new chip and networking system meant to connect AI data centers across hundreds of miles, a move that escalates competition with Broadcom Inc.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google wants to retain the right to bundle its popular mapping and video apps with its Gemini AI service, a lawyer for the company told a federal judge Wednesday, pushing back on a Justice Department proposal that would bar the practice.
* Paramount Skydance Corp. has discussed its interest in acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. with Apollo Global Management, according to people familiar with the matter.
* David AI Labs Inc. a startup selling audio data sets to help train artificial intelligence models, has raised $50 million from investors in a new round of funding — signaling a growing market for startups that provide the building blocks for AI development.
* An asset manager controlled by a unit of Jefferies Financial Group Inc. sank nearly a quarter of its $3 billion trade finance portfolio into receivables tied to auto parts supplier First Brands Group Inc., the bank disclosed on Wednesday.
** BlackRock Inc. has requested to pull some money it invested in a Jefferies Financial Group fund with large exposure to the trade debt of First Brands, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Ryanair Holdings Plc said it received 10 aircraft from Boeing Co. in the past 10 days, a sign of progress as the US planemaker works to ramp up production in its factories.
* The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will reschedule a late October meeting of an influential vaccine panel that’s been weighing changes to long-standing advice around childhood shots.
* Canada’s Cenovus Energy Inc. increased its takeover bid for rival MEG Energy Corp. one day before investors were due to vote on it, signaling the companies’ original deal didn’t have enough shareholder support.
* Shell Plc is preparing to resume preliminary work on a Venezuelan offshore gas field to supply neighboring Trinidad and Tobago, as its confidence grows that the Trump administration will issue a new license exempting the project from sanctions, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Airbus SE delivered 73 aircraft in September as it works to meet ambitious full-year guidance amid supply chain struggles.
* BMW AG lowered its financial guidance on weak sales in China and tariff costs, underscoring the difficulties Germany’s export-reliant auto industry is facing.
* Security services group Verisure Plc’s shares rallied in its first day of trading, after the initial public offering raised about €3.2 billion ($3.72 billion) in the largest European debut in three years.
* Teck Resources Ltd. once again cut output guidance for its flagship copper mine in Chile, little more than a month after agreeing one of the biggest ever mining deals with Anglo American Plc.
* SoftBank Group Corp. agreed to acquire ABB Ltd.’s industrial robots’ unit at an enterprise value of almost $5.4 billion, reflecting billionaire Masayoshi Son’s growing bets on emerging technology in artificial intelligence and robotics.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Some AI-related stocks may still justify lofty valuations as risks are concentrated in smaller companies with weak fundamentals.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1630
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3402
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 152.71 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $123,375.03
* Ether was little changed at $4,512.39
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.13%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.68%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.71%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.58%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.72%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $62.39 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.5% to $4,045.49 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
“Different’ and ‘new’ is relatively easy. Doing something that’s genuinely better is very hard.”– Sir Jonathan Paul Ive “Jony”

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office attending the Bloomberg Screentime 2025 Conference. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On Oct. 7, 1806 Carbon paper patented in London by inventor Ralph Wedgwood
On Oct. 7, 1907 Henri Farman of France flies 30 meters in a Voisin biplane
On Oct. 7, 1909 British Security Service, commonly known as MI5 (Military Intelligence, Section 5), is formed as part of the Secret Service Bureau
On Oct. 7, 1919 KLM (Koninklijke Luchtvaart Maatschappij), Royal Dutch Airlines, is founded in Amsterdam, making it one of the world’s oldest airlines
On Oct. 7, 1928 Paavo Nurmi runs a world record 10 miles (50:15.0)
On Oct. 7, 2008 The Federal Reserve annouced a radical plan to buy massive amounts of short-term debt, known as commercial paper, to get credit markets moving again. Go to article

Interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS may come from the mysterious frontier of the early Milky Way, new study hints
The interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS does not come from our corner of the Milky Way, and may be a time capsule of the early galaxy, new research into its trajectory hints.

Leopards ate our ancient human ancestors’ faces, AI analysis reveals
A study provides insight into the demise of two prehistoric individuals of the now-extinct human species Homo habilis.

Deadly mamba snakebites stop muscles from working — but sometimes, antivenom can send them into overdrive
Some victims of venomous mamba snakebites see their symptoms worsen after getting antivenom, displaying a different type of paralysis. A new study explores why.

Unique gene variants in the Turkana people of Kenya may help them survive harsh desert heat
Scientists discovered genetic variants in the Turkana that help conserve water in deserts, but these variants may now raise disease risks in urban settings, early data suggest.

Nobel Prize in physics goes to three scientists who discovered bizarre quantum effect on large scales
The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics has been awarded to John Clarke, Michel H. Devoret and John M. Martinis “for the discovery of macroscopic quantum mechanical tunnelling and energy quantisation in an electric circuit.”

Far Side of the Moon Revealed
In 1959 Far side of the Moon is seen for the first time courtesy of the USSR’s Luna 3 space probe

A monstrous tornado
The rarest and most extreme form of tornado struck eastern North Dakota in June, and experts have now determined how strong it really was.

New details of Ernest Shackleton’s sunken Endurance ship
A broken rudder wasn’t what doomed the Endurance, new analysis suggests.

Niels Bohr, mathematician, b. 1885 🧪
Desmond Tutu, b. 1931 ✝️
Vladimir Putin, b. 1952 🇷🇺
Yo-Yo Ma, b. 1955 🎻

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

New Mexico, US
‘Storm clouds and a rainbow in Santa Fe. There was a brilliant light show before a good and much-needed soaking.’
Photograph: Mary Anne Wisnewski

Dresden, Germany
‘This is the International Congress Center at dusk. I was on my way to take a photo of the cityscape from the Marienbrücke when I happened on this beautiful architecture.’
Photograph: Harvey Wasserman

Seville, Spain
Metropol Parasol, the world’s largest wooden structure.
Photograph: Francisco Garcia
Market Closes for October 7^th , 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46602.98	-91.99
		-0.20%
S&P 500	6714.59	-25.69
		-0.38%
NASDAQ	22788.36	-153.31
		-0.67%
TSX	30351.72	-180.16
		-0.59%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	47950.88	+6.12
		+0.01%
HANG SENG	26957.77	-183.15
		-0.67%
SENSEX	81926.75	+136.63
		+0.17%
FTSE 100*	9483.58	+4.44
		+0.05%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.183	3.213
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.703	3.715
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1230	4.1540
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7231	4.7526

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7169	0.7168
US $	1.3948	1.3950

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6268	0.6147
US $	1.1660	0.8576

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3949.45	3885.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.73	61.69

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1896, the Dow Jones Industrial Average began continuous daily publication. Its 12 members were the great industrial giants of the time: American Cotton Oil, American Sugar, American Tobacco, Chicago Gas, American Spirits Manufacturing, General Electric, Laclede Gas, National Lead, U.S. Cordage, Tennessee Coal & Iron, U.S. Leather, and U.S. Rubber.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.6% at 30,351.72 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.9% on Aug.
1 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 142 of 214 shares fell, while 67 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.9%.
Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.8%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.1% below its 52-week high on Oct. 6, 2025 and 36.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and rose 4.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 on a trailing basis and 18.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.87t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.79% compared with 6.37% in the previous session and the average of 7.58% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -73.3754| -1.4| 10/41
Information Technology | -45.5377| -1.4| 2/7
Financials | -44.8806| -0.5| 6/16
Consumer Discretionary | -15.7069| -1.6| 1/8
Industrials | -13.7425| -0.4| 8/21
Real Estate | -4.0604| -0.8| 1/16
Health Care | 0.1470| 0.2| 2/2
Consumer Staples | 1.7734| 0.2| 3/8
Communication Services | 3.2239| 0.5| 2/3
Utilities | 4.2717| 0.4| 9/5
Energy | 7.7284| 0.2| 23/15
Shopify | -37.6600| -1.9| -39.9| 47.1
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -19.7300| -2.4| -46.8| 106.4
RBC | -13.9400| -0.7| 15.3| 17.5
WSP Global | 3.5540| 1.4| -0.9| 9.9
Cameco | 5.1980| 1.4| -7.0| 63.3
Canadian Natural | Resources | 6.4180| 1.0| -30.3| 3.0
(MT Newswires)
(Adds commentary from representative of Canadian team after White House meetings from paragraph 7 to 13.)
After six consecutive days of record closes, the Toronto Stock Exchange fell Tuesday on some profit taking and on investor nerves around Canada’s chances of bringing a trade war with the United States to an end, and at what cost if it does.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 180.16 points, or 0.6%, to 30,351.72 with sectors mixed, and none of them falling or rising by as much as 1%.
On the trade front, Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday told U.S. President Donald Trump that Canada is the U.S.’s largest foreign investor, investing half of a $1 trillion over the last five years, and “probably $1 trillion in the next five years, if we get the agreement that we expect to get”, according to a transcript read on Canada’s CBC TV related to commentary from the Canadian Prime Minister during his trade talks at the White House.
Carney’s comments created a stir as to what exactly was meant.
Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the opposition Conservatives, latched on to this confusion during Question Time in parliament back in Ottawa.
According to one reporter on CBC TV, Carney appeared to be talking about private sector rather than government investment in the U.S., but Poilievre saw it as meaning companies and private sector entities will actually move to the United States.
All of this comes as Canada’s deficit in goods trade ballooned to $6.3 billion in August, from a revised $3.8 billion in the prior month and not far from the widest point recorded in April.
Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc briefed the media at 4:00 p.m. ET, and market watchers were looking for him to clear up matters as to what exactly Carney and Trump spoke about and what, if any, agreements have been struck during their meeting.
According to LeBlanc, the Canadian team had a “successful, positive, substantive conversation” with their U.S. counterparts on trade and international issues.
He said the conversation was “more detailed” than at previous meetings, with President Trump “very engaged”.
LeBlanc added talks will continue to “quickly land deals” that will bring “greater certainty” to areas such as steel, aluminum and energy.
MT Newswires notes the auto sector was not included among the areas cited.
Also, LeBlanc confirmed PM Carney did talk about substantial investments by private corporations and institutional investors, such as pension funds that have already massively invested in the U.S. economy to the tune of more than $500 billion.
“We believe over the next five years that could double,” he said.
LeBlanc said Carney spoke, for example, about how Canada can contribute more to the energy security of the U.S. through private corporations and institutions.
When asked were Canada and the U.S. headed towards a quota system in their trade dealings, LeBlanc said one needed to be careful drawing a straight line between the idea of having ‘formula’ for trade dealings, as President Trump alluded to today, and having ‘quotas’.
LeBlanc when asked has Canada joined the ‘Golden Dome’ defence system, said Canada wants to be a “constructive partner” as the Americans “elaborate” on the details, with talks ongoing.
Of commodities today, gold had continued its record run higher late afternoon on Tuesday as the precious metal rose above US$4,000 mark for the first time on strong demand.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $27.30 to US$4,003.60 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate oil closed with a small gain, the third-straight day of gains as traders assess the risks of supply disruptions amid an over-supplied market.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed up $0.04 to settle at $61.73 per barrel, while December Brent crude was last seen down $0.06 to $65.41.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders sent stocks lower after a series of all-time highs spurred calls for a breather amid signs of buyer exhaustion. Bonds rose as a $58 billion Treasury sale drew solid demand.
The ebullience driven by artificial intelligence gave way to concerns about the rally being excessive after a $16 trillion surge in the S&P 500 from its April lows.
Tech giants dragged down the index amid a report that Oracle Corp.’s cloud margins are lower than many estimate.
Tesla Inc. sank over 4% after introducing new versions of its top-selling models priced at under $40,000.
Investor optimism has grown heated in recent months, with many investors seeming too busy chasing the upside to worry about risks like a US government shutdown and stretched valuations.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk said last week bullish sentiment among clients was the highest since December.
A sentiment tracker compiled by Barclays Plc has been near a level that indicates exuberance.
A similar Bloomberg Intelligence measure went back to “manic” zone.
“A period of consolidation would not come as a surprise after such a strong recent run, but we believe the equity rally is underpinned by solid fundamentals that should continue to support the market,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The S&P 500 closed around 6,715.
Oracle slid 2.5%.
Dell Technologies Inc. climbed 3.5% after hiking estimates amid strong AI demand.
US 10-year yields dropped three basis points to 4.13%.
The dollar rose.
Traders also parsed remarks from Federal Reserve officials, with Governor Stephen Miran saying his expectations for a limited tariff impact on inflation mean the Fed can keep easing policy.
Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari warned that any drastic rate cuts would risk stoking prices.
“Profit-taking risks have rapidly risen across markets, and are particularly elevated for Nasdaq, potentially hampering further upside,” said Citigroup’s Chris Montagu.
Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler says he remains optimistic, particularly with macro tailwinds lifting the stock market.
However, he believes there are subtle signs of diverging momentum that warrant vigilance, especially with over-extended stocks that have risen substantially in recent weeks.
“A brief consolidation or shallow pullback would be welcomed to set up better risk-reward opportunities,” he noted.
At Fundstrat Global Advisors, Mark Newton says “overbought conditions” are notoriously a poor reason to avoid owning US equities, as many investors realize that can likely persist and don’t have to specifically represent a reason for concern.
Yet “it’s important to pay attention and not become overly complacent.”
“Of course valuations are moving higher.
They usually do, especially after swift selloffs like the one we saw in April,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“Now, we need to see earnings and economic data follow through.”
Cox says price-to-earnings ratios pushing towards extremes should encourage investors to rebalance.
“There’s still a lot of hidden value – or selloff protection – out there that could keep you cushioned against AI disappointment,” she noted.
Some Wall Street pros note that having multiple large technology stocks surge by double-digits in quick succession could be a sign that valuations have become disconnected from underlying fundamentals.
The moves come amid growing chatter about a bubble forming around AI as key players pledge billions of dollars in deals with a cohort of companies making infrastructure for the technology.
As more money is spent, there’s mounting fear the trend will end in a crash the way it did 25 years ago following the dot-com euphoria.
Warnings that we’re seeing a repeat of the dot-com bubble are heard regularly, noted Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
The big difference is that this time, the players are huge companies with huge balance sheets and existing cash flow, he said.
“If profitability takes longer than expected a few of the hardware suppliers will suffer operating losses,” Navellier added.
“Nevertheless, with the market so heavily weighted to companies that are all-in on the AI bet, any serious setbacks on the prospects of AI profitability will have a serious impact on market indexes in the short term.”
With that said, Navellier noted investors shouldn’t worry about a stock-market bubble, “since as long as the analyst community is raising earnings estimates and the Fed is cutting key interest rates, we can invest confidently in A-rated stocks.”
Meantime, Jamie Dimon said JPMorgan Chase & Co. spends $2 billion a year on developing AI technology, and saves about the same amount annually from the investment.
“We know that it’s got to billions of cost savings and I think it’s the tip of the iceberg,” the bank’s chief executive officer, who has consistently touted the opportunities offered by AI, told Bloomberg TV.
“There has been plenty of chatter regarding the lofty valuations in the equity market and need for a rationalization lower.
At issue isn’t whether stocks have gotten a bit ahead of themselves, rather how the financial system would respond to a sharp correction,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
The BMO strategists noted that Tuesday’s price action was by no means a massive downtrade, instead it was a pullback in the tech sector following the concerns regarding narrow profit margins on AI-related cloud server rentals.
“We’re by no means technology experts and will leave the process of evaluating the cloud server worries to those more qualified.
Our only takeaway was that the Treasury market is comfortable in the prevailing range and wobbles in equities provided a handy excuse to rally,” they concluded.

Corporate Highlights:
* Dell Technologies Inc. roughly doubled its growth estimates for sales and profit for the next two years, and said demand for artificial intelligence products will extend those higher projections at least through the 2030 fiscal year.
* International Business Machines Corp. announced a plan to integrate Anthropic’s artificial-intelligence technologies into its software solutions.
* Salesforce Inc. told customers that it won’t pay a ransom demand from a hacker who claimed to have stolen a large amount of client data and threatened to publish it, according to an email seen by Bloomberg News.
* Gambling stocks led by DraftKings Inc. and Flutter Entertainment Plc fell after the owner of the New York Stock Exchange announced plans to invest as much as $2 billion in Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform.
* Ford Motor Co. faces months of disruptions to its business after a major fire at an aluminum plant in New York, the Wall Street Journal reported.
* Johnson & Johnson was told by a California jury to pay $966 million to the family of a deceased woman who blamed her cancer on life-long use of the company’s baby powder in the largest verdict for a single user in the 15-year litigation.
* CoreWeave Inc. Chief Executive Officer Michael Intrator pushed back on the idea of changing a $9 billion bid for Core Scientific Inc. after one of the acquisition target’s biggest investors said it was a lowball offer.
* Ethiopian Airlines has more than 100 planes on order with Boeing Co., but delivery delays are hampering expansion at Africa’s biggest carrier.
* Bank of New York Mellon Corp. is exploring tokenized deposits to enable clients to make payments using blockchain, as major banks across the world step up use of the technology underpinning digital assets to transfer funds.
* Rising investor appetite for digital infrastructure, energy and transportation assets boosted fundraising for Manulife Investment Management, which closed its largest-ever infrastructure fund with $5.5 billion.
* Mercedes-Benz Group AG’s China sales tumbled 27% in the third quarter to their lowest level in almost a decade as luxury demand in the country remains weak and local manufacturers dominate on electric vehicles.
* One of Banco Sabadell SA’s biggest investors said it will reject BBVA SA’s bid for its local rival, heightening uncertainty over the €17 billion deal just three days before it ends.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The S&P 500 has declined to a key support level of 6,700.
The move so far still reflects positioning dynamics more than any change in the macro narrative, but the potential for a greater pullback is growing.”
—Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.1%
* Oracle fell 2.5%
* Tesla fell 4.4%
* Dell Technologies rose 3.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1651
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3420
* The Japanese yen fell 1.1% to 151.99 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $122,061.45
* Ether fell 4% to $4,505.01
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.13%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.72%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.57%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.72%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $62.03 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,981.41 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
“A diamond is a chunk of coal that did well under pressure.” — Dr Henry Alfred Kissinger

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.   Full moon tonight – Harvest Moon! 🌕

On Oct. 6, 1981, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat was shot to death by Islamic militants while reviewing a military parade.  Go to article.
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Internet personality Aurélien Fontenoy cycled up the Eiffel Tower in 12 minutes and 30 seconds. That’s wheely impressive.
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Haikou, China
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Maranello, Italy
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​​​​​​​Colombo, Sri Lanka
A man collects pink water lilies to sell for religious offerings
Photograph: Krishan Kariyawasam/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Market Closes for October 6^th , 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46694.97	-63.31
		-0.14%
S&P 500	6740.28	+24.49
		+0.36%
NASDAQ	22941.67	+161.16
		+0.71%
TSX	30531.88	+60.20
		+0.20%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	48400.46	+455.70
		+0.95%
HANG SENG	26957.77	-183.15
		-0.67%
SENSEX	81790.12	+582.95
		+0.72%
FTSE 100*	9479.14	-12.11
		-0.13%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.213	3.187
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.715	3.673
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1540	4.1192
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7526	4.7114

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7168	0.7165
US $	1.3950	1.3956

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6331	0.6123
US $	1.1708	0.8541

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3885.70	3878.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.69	60.88

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1979, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker made his first major announcement: The Fed raised rates a full percentage point, to 12%, and said it would take tough measures to control the money supply. Volcker’s announcement, made on a Saturday night, became known as “the Saturday Night Massacre” for its murderous effect on bond prices—but it also broke the back of inflation.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the seventh day, climbing 0.2%, or 60.2 to 30,531.88 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%.
Orla Mining Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 12.4%.
Today, 113 of 214 shares rose, while 99 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 37.4% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.9% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 on a trailing basis and 19.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.86t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.37% compared with 6.86% in the previous session and the average of 7.61% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 52.6207| 1.0| 38/13
Information Technology | 25.3134| 0.8| 7/2
Energy | 18.5657| 0.4| 29/9
Utilities | 4.4483| 0.4| 7/6
Financials | 3.2239| 0.0| 12/12
Health Care | -0.8495| -1.0| 1/3
Communication Services | -3.6107| -0.6| 1/4
Industrials | -4.8525| -0.1| 13/16
Real Estate | -5.9125| -1.2| 1/18
Consumer Discretionary | -8.7539| -0.9| 4/5
Consumer Staples | -20.0129| -2.0| 0/11
Shopify | 39.4500| 2.1| -29.4| 50.0
Canadian Natural | Resources | 12.8300| 2.0| -22.9| 2.0
Cenovus | 5.8010| 2.8| -30.0| 11.7
Brookfield Corp | -9.1370| -1.0| -53.2| 14.9
Dollarama | -9.6670| -2.7| 60.1| 27.3
Constellation | Software | -18.3500| -3.3| -39.9| -12.3
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted yet another record finish Monday, the sixth-straight, even as Rosenberg Research said Canada’s equity market looks “stretched and relatively overbought”, but did also add its commodity model “remains solidly in the upper half of the ‘neutral’ range.”
The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 60 points, or 0.2%, to 30,531.88, buoyed by elevated commodity prices.
Most sectors were higher, led by Energy and the Battery Metals Index, both up about 1.3%.
Telecoms, Health Care and Industrials were lower, but none of them by more than 0.5%.
Market watchers now await a meeting of Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday.
The pair are expected to talk trade and security amid an ongoing tariff dispute.
BMO Economics in an overnight note said this year’s “trade turmoil” created a “tense and potentially combustible environment” heading into the upcoming review of the existing United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, which must be held by July 2026.
BMO estimates the potential economic impact of several stylized USMCA scenarios: in its “Muddle Through” scenario, tariffs remain close to current levels, yielding a slowdown in Canada and limited impact in the United States; in its “No Special Treatment” scenario, both sides implement material but moderate new tariffs, creating larger economic dislocations; and in its “Continental Divide” scenario, both sides erect large tariff walls, resulting in a recession in Canada and a material slowdown for the United States.
Meanwhile, Rosenberg Research in its latest ‘Strategizer’, a monthly guidebook for active investors, said its asset allocation tool retained an underweight equity/overweight bonds view heading into October, though it added the market for corporate credit looks “very stretched and far more expensive” than the stock market.
According to the note, stock-market focus should remain on the overseas indices, while the ‘Strategizer’ model is taking -5 points out of both bonds, to 40% from 45%, and cash, to 5% from 10%, with the proceeds put into equities, which was raised to 55% from 45%.
Rosenberg Research said relative scores favor Europe and Asia over the United States and Canada, adding Strategizer’s preference for ex-U.S. markets “fits the current macro policy environment”.
It noted Europe’s score rose to 41.2 in September, up from 36.1 earlier, and added: “Peak values above 60.0 were recorded in January and April, which turned out to be well-timed signals to increase exposure on the back of the fiscal spending announcement hype.
Since then, however, investors are in “wait and see” mode, reflected by a European model score that remains rangebound in “neutral” territory.
Yet, Europe is still more compelling than the U.S. and Canadian indices, which look stretched and relatively overbought when sentiment, positioning, and technical indicators are considered.”
On Canada’s score, the research said a losing streak was extended for a fifth consecutive month, dropping deeper into underweight territory at 17.3 after an already low reading of 21.9 last month.
It noted precious metals have provided strong support for Canadian stocks, which have climbed steadily in recent months.
Still, it added, Strategizer highlights extreme values of technical and sentiment indicators pointing to overbought conditions compared to historical norms (contrarian negative).
Among Canadian sectors, Materials (gold miners), Financials, and Real Estate remain in the top rankings from the month prior, with the only change being a jump up in Energy to #3 from #6.
Health Care, which ranked second last month, has now dropped to sixth.
Strategizer’s commodity model “remains solidly in the upper half of the ‘neutral’ range”, despite edging down slightly in September to 56.0 from 57.2 in August.
The research said: “As we have been highlighting of late, valuations remain historically cheap and positioning is depressed (contrarian positives), offsetting demand concerns from the state of the global economy (though a supply squeeze in various segments of the metals space is acting as a powerful antidote).
Crude oil ranks 5th, with supply concerns acting as a restraining force.”
The gold model, the research said, eroded for the third month in a row and is flashing a near-term ‘take profits’ signal, which it just did in the Rosie Macro Fund.
It added: “We remain long-term bullish on the yellow metal, but both sentiment and positioning scores remain at extreme levels (87th and 78^th percentile readings, respectively), indicating that we are not alone in our bullish stance on the shiny yellow metal.
The technical picture has also become extremely overbought (the corresponding model subindex jumped to a 94^th percentile from 57th in August).”
Of commodities today, gold continued its record run up, approaching the US$4,000 mark even as the dollar and yields rose.
Gold for December delivery was up $75.10 to US$3,984.00 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose for a second day as OPEC+ on the weekend decided on a monthly production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, less than reports last week expected but still adding fresh supply to an already flush market.
WTI oil for November delivery closed up $0.81 to settle at $61.69 per barrel, while December Brent oil was last seen up $0.83 to $65.36.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in chipmakers sent stocks to all- time highs as Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s deal with OpenAI added fuel to the artificial-intelligence frenzy that has powered Wall Street. Bonds fell.
The dollar rose.
With the bull market on track for its three-year anniversary, momentum shows few signs of abating.
The S&P 500 climbed for a seventh straight session – the longest advance since May.
AMD soared 24%.
While giant Nvidia Corp. slid, a key gauge of semiconductors jumped about 3%.
Tesla Inc. led gains in mega caps as a series of social-media posts teased the unveiling of a product.
Monday’s AMD deal is the latest big-budget data center agreement this year.
It follows last month’s announcement that Nvidia was planning to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI amid demand for tools like ChatGPT and the computing power needed to make them run.
“Semiconductors are ‘on fire’,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
“The AI narrative continues to gain momentum.”
With “animal spirits” surrounding the AI phenomenon getting yet another boost, Matt Maley at Miller Tabak notes it’s no surprise that issues like the US government shutdown are being mostly ignored by traders.
The S&P 500 closed around 6,740.
Comerica Inc. soared as Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy the bank for about $10.9 billion in stock.
AppLovin Corp. sank as it was said to be probed over its data-collection practices.
Long-term Treasuries underperformed, joining a similar trend through much of Europe and Asia amid fiscal concerns.
Gold neared $4,000-an-ounce.
Bitcoin also hit a record.
Oil gained as OPEC+ raised production by a modest amount.
For almost as long as the AI boom has been in full swing, there have been warnings of a speculative bubble that could rival the dot-com craze of the late 1990s that ended in a spectacular crash and a wave of bankruptcies.
There was some fear that an AI bubble had already popped in late January, when China’s DeepSeek upended the market with the release of a competitive AI model.
But Silicon Valley remained largely undeterred.
In the months that followed, tech companies redoubled their AI spending plans, and investors resumed cheering on these bets.
“When the tech bubble in the stock market inflated during 1999, we don’t recall as much chatter about a bubble as we are hearing today.
From a contrarian perspective, it is comforting that there is a bubble in bubble fears,” said veteran Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni.
The founder of Yardeni Research noted that the Google search index for “AI bubble” rose to 100 on Oct. 2 from zero in mid-September.
“We are counting on another better-than-expected earnings reporting season for Q3 over the next few weeks to support the stock market’s rally to record highs,” Yardeni said.
“In addition, we expect that the AI and cloud companies won’t disappoint either.”
“Today’s lofty tech sector valuations differ in nature with the ‘irrational exuberance’ of the tech bubble of the 1990s and 2000s: capital expenditures have been funded out of free cash flows underpinned by high profitability,” said Naomi Fink at Amova Asset Management.
To Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise, it’s possible that some level of investment in the AI buildout today may not yield the degree of return investors hope for, and valuations among some of the leaders would likely need to be adjusted downward.
“However, given the size and scale of companies and industries that have yet to tap into AI in a meaningful way, we are less concerned that we are on the cusp of a dot-com bubble just yet,” he said.
US companies are set to enjoy a better-than-expected earnings season as a robust economy and a solid outlook for AI have left estimates looking too low, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin.
They also expect the so-called Magnificent Seven group of technology heavyweights to beat expectations.
At Ritholtz Wealth Management, Callie Cox says markets feel “untouchable,” which is why there are so many people talking about valuations.
“Higher valuations aren’t unusual, but earnings need to grab the baton for the rally to continue,” she said.
“Ideally, we want to see profits support prices.”
“We’re in a self-fulfilling rally — earnings are strong and getting stronger, investors are shrugging off a lack of data, and even a government shutdown can’t shake their confidence,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“And with half of the past decade’s returns typically coming in Q4, the main story right now is momentum.”
Bespoke Investment Group strategists noted that US investors will observe two notable milestones in coming days — Wednesday marks six months since the S&P 500’s hit this year’s lows, and Sunday is set to be the three-year anniversary of the current bull market.
The gauge’s rolling six-month change crossed above 30% for the first time since Oct. 2, 2020, Bespoke said in a note that analyzed the 12 days since 1953 when that happened for the first time in at least a year.
“In terms of forward market performance following the 12 days, the S&P has definitely shown some weakness in the very near term, but going out three months to one year, returns are slightly better than normal,” the strategists said.
A multi-month winning streak in US stocks is poised to continue based on an equity indicator from Barclays Plc that correctly predicted September’s rally in the face of concern over seasonal weakness.
The Barclays Equity Timing Indicator, which analyzes 19 inputs like market internals, positioning and economic data to find inflection points in the market, implies an 82% chance that the S&P 500 will advance in the next two months, with an average gain of 4% during that time, based on data going back to 2015.
“Another round of above-consensus results and positive takeaways around a resilient consumer could give investors a confidence boost heading into year-end amidst government uncertainty and a shaky labor market,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte wrote that aggregate equity positioning remains overweight but not stretched, although there are growing pockets of momentum chasing in large caps.
Solid earnings growth and extreme valuations are calling for further broadening of the global equity rally, Citigroup strategists led by Beata Manthey said.
“We remain optimistic heading into the fourth quarter, particularly with macro tailwinds that are expected to lift the stock market.
However, there are subtle signs of diverging momentum as we enter October that warrant vigilance, particularly with over-extended stocks that have risen substantially in recent weeks,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
A brief consolidation or shallow pullback would be welcomed to set up better risk-reward opportunities, he said.
“As of now, the stock market is shrugging off the government shutdown and is more focused on earnings optimism and the prospect of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts,” said Robert Edwards at Edwards Asset Management.

Corporate Highlights:
* President Donald Trump said 25% duties on medium- and heavy- duty trucks would begin Nov. 1, the latest expansion of his tariff regime aimed at protecting domestic industries.
* OpenAI is making it easier for ChatGPT users to connect with third-party apps within the chatbot to carry out tasks, the company’s latest bid to turn its flagship product into a key gateway for digital services.
* Micron Technology Inc. climbed as Morgan Stanley upgraded the shares to overweight, saying the chipmaker is headed for multiple quarters of double-digit price increases.
* Apple Inc. faces an investigation in France over the use of voice recordings made with its assistant Siri.
* The US Supreme Court declined a chance to open social media companies to lawsuits over content recommended by their algorithms, turning away an appeal that accused Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook of radicalizing a man who killed nine South Carolina churchgoers.
* Boeing Co. is guiding suppliers that 737 Max output could reach a 42-jet monthly tempo as soon as this month, according to people familiar with its plans, highlighting growing optimism at the plane maker as it works to win approval for the move from US
regulators.
* Verizon Communications Inc., conceding it has fallen behind rivals in wireless and broadband service, replaced its chief executive officer of seven years, appointing a new leader with experience in telecom and financial technology.
* The US Supreme Court turned away an appeal by ticketing giant Live Nation Entertainment Inc. in a consumer antitrust suit, dealing a blow to the company’s effort to manage its antitrust woes by channeling cases into arbitration.
* Paramount Skydance Corp. acquired the online news site the Free Press and named founder Bari Weiss editor-in-chief of CBS News, a move likely to stir controversy inside and outside of the news organization.
* Orsted A/S raised 60 billion Danish kroner ($9.4 billion) through a rights offering that’s critical for the company to tackle the downturn facing the wind power industry.
* Nvidia Corp.’s major server production partner Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. reported 11% growth in quarterly sales, signaling healthy demand for the chips and servers needed to develop artificial intelligence.
“AI-related equity baskets are up by double digits this year, with the rally expanding beyond the Magnificent Seven into other parts of tech like memory chips and storage shares.
That raises the stakes for these companies to deliver on results to keep justifying these gains and sparks concern about how long the momentum can last.”
— Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 2.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1711
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3482
* The Japanese yen fell 1.9% to 150.33 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.2% to $125,458.73
* Ether rose 5% to $4,724.56
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.16%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.74%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.60%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.76%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $61.76 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.9% to $3,960.20 an ounce.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
What the superior man seeks is in himself.  What the inferior man seeks is in others. -Confucius, 551-478 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

October 3, 1990: Germany is officially reunified, ending four decades of Cold War division between the Soviet-controlled East and the Western-controlled West.
West Germany and East Germany ended 45 years of postwar division, declaring the creation of a new unified country. Go to article

October 3, 1941: The Maltese Falcon premieres in New York City.

Stevie Ray Vaughan, musician, b. 1954.
Ashlee Simpson, singer, b. 1984

Chinese tech company develops creepy ultra-lifelike robot face — watch it blink, twitch and nod

A Chinese robotics company has unveiled what it describes as a realistic robot face, with plans to make humanoid robots more approachable and relatable. Read More.

Scientists find best evidence yet that icy moon Enceladus is habitable

An ocean flowing beneath the surface of Saturn’s moon Enceladus is spewing ice that holds the building blocks of life. Read More.

Chimps eat fruit full of alcohol, but no, they don’t get drunk

Chimps’ ability to metabolize fermented fruit could explain our own predilection for alcohol. Read More.

The Panama Canal needs a staggering amount of water to operate. Climate change could threaten that, study warns

The vital commercial artery depends on a supply of fresh water to move ships between the two oceans. Drought conditions that were once rare could become common by the end of the century, greatly impacting the canal’s operation. Read More.

Taylor Swift releases new album
Cue the confetti — Taylor Swift’s 12th album, “The Life of a Showgirl,” has officially arrived.

First female Archbishop of Canterbury is appointed
Sarah Mullally was appointed today as the new Archbishop of Canterbury, becoming the spiritual leader of 85 million Anglicans worldwide and the first woman to hold the role.

Kilauea volcano shoots lava as high as the Empire State Building
Hawaii’s Kilauea recently shot lava 1,300 feet into the air! See the video here.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Loriol-Sur-Drome, France
Riders in action during the junior women’s road race at the UEC road European cycling championships
Photograph: Shutterstock

New Delhi, India
Viktoras Pentaras, of Cyprus, in action during the men’s long jump T37 final during the World Para Athletics Championships at the Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium
Photograph: Bhawika Chhabra/Reuters

​​​​​​​Canterbury, UK
Britain’s new archbishop of Canterbury-designate, Sarah Mullally, poses for a photograph in the Corona vhapel at Canterbury Cathedral, after her appointment was announcement
Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 3^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46758.28	+238.56
		+0.51%
S&P 500	6715.79	+0.44
		+0.01%
NASDAQ	22780.51	-63.54
		-0.28%
TSX	30471.68	+311.09
		+1.03%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45769.50	+832.77
		+1.85%
HANG SENG	27140.92	-146.20
		-0.54%
SENSEX	81207.17	+223.86
		+0.28%
FTSE 100*	9491.25	+63.52
		+0.67%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.187	3.176
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.673	3.657
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1192	4.0827
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7114	4.6881

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7165	0.7162
US $	1.3956	1.3962

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6369	0.6103
US $	1.1739	0.8518

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3878.10	3872.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	60.88	60.48

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1913, President Woodrow Wilson enshrined into law a federal income tax, less than 20 years after it was declared unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court. He signed the act after 9 p.m. to prevent anyone from hiding assets during that day’s business hours. The tax kicked in at 1% of all earned income over $2,500 for single taxpayers and $3,333.35 for married couples.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the sixth day, climbing 1%, or 311.09 to 30,471.68 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.1% on Sept. 19.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 159 of 214 shares rose, while 55 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 6.5%.

Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 17 times. The next day, it declined nine times for an average 1.3% and advanced eight times for an average 0.7%
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* So far this week, the index rose 2.4%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Aug. 8
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 37.1% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6 on a trailing basis and 19 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.81t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.86% compared with 6.82% in the previous session and the average of 7.96% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 118.4336| 3.9| 7/2
Financials | 59.7175| 0.6| 21/3
Energy | 53.1513| 1.1| 35/4
Industrials | 37.1472| 1.1| 21/8
Materials | 19.3271| 0.4| 29/22
Utilities | 7.8527| 0.7| 10/4
Consumer Discretionary | 7.5202| 0.8| 9/0
Real Estate | 4.8474| 1.0| 18/1
Consumer Staples | 2.8918| 0.3| 6/5
Communication Services | 0.7585| 0.1| 2/3
Health Care | -0.5569| -0.7| 1/3
Shopify | 116.3000| 6.5| 13.7| 47.0
TD Bank | 25.3900| 1.9| 392.2| 48.0
Constellation | Software | 17.7600| 3.3| 14.3| -9.3
Nutrien | -2.0400| -0.7| 5.8| 28.7
Bank of Montreal | -9.2020| -1.0| 105.0| 29.0
Celestica | -19.4800| -6.9| 15.4| 145.8
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Friday completed an entire week of daily record closes as BMO’s Douglas Porter noted the index is on an “even bigger roll” than its major U.S. counterparts, “even without the gold rush”.
Today, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index was buoyed by elevated commodity prices in surging 311.09 points, or 1%, to 30,471.68, well up from a then record close of just under the 30,000 mark struck last Monday.
Most sectors were positive, led by Base Metals and Info Tech, both up 1.4%, and info tech, up 2%.
In contrast, Health Care was the only sector that was down near 1%.
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high late afternoon on Friday, recovering from a day-prior drop as traders took profits following Wednesday’s record close, boosted by the dollar weakening amid a U.S. government shutdown and expectations lower interest rates are coming. Gold for December delivery was up US$42.30 to US$3,910.40 per ounce, topping Wednesday’s US$3,897.50 record.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher, rising off a near five-month low ahead of an OPEC+ ministers’ meeting this weekend that could deliver another large output increase.
WTI oil for November delivery closed up $0.40 to settle at $60.88 per barrel, rising off the lowest since May 9, while December Brent oil was up $0.54 to $64.65.
If anything, Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in his regular weekly ‘Talking Points’ note, the TSX is on an “even bigger roll”
than its major U.S. counterparts, with the index now up 23% since the start of the year and a “blistering” 60% over the past 24 months.
He noted that ranks the current run in the top seven performances over a two-year period since 1960.
“True,” Porter added, “the stunning run in gold prices and related equities are juicing those returns, but we calculate that even ex-materials, the index is up a solid 15% so far this year (actually nudging out the S&P 500, even without the gold rush).”
Porter noted this raises the question of ‘how can the TSX be so strong when the underlying Canadian economy is struggling?’ and also noted the knee-jerk response, including often times from BMO, is that the index is a pale reflection of the economy.
But Porter said the TSX has “actually been a decent early indicator in the past for growth”, leading GDP by about a quarter.
He added the relationship is far from airtight, noting the wide divergences around the tech boom and bust in the late 1990s and early 2000s, which has some echoes today.
“But, at the very least, the rollicking ride in stocks suggests that some of the gloom around the economic outlook may be overdone.”
On the economic outlook, Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to head to Washington early next week to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump amid an ongoing trade spate.
Carney will leave for Washington on Monday evening and will meet with Trump on Tuesday, in what the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) is describing as a “working visit and meeting.”
Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, Industry Minister Melanie Joly and Canada-U.S.
Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc will travel with Carney.
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — The rally in tech stocks took a breather Friday, pulling back from this week’s record highs.
AI optimism was countered by President Donald Trump’s warning to Hamas and signs of a weakening economy as a US government shutdown extended into its third day.
The dollar slumped.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%.
Palantir Technologies Inc. was among the biggest decliners, the stock tumbled 7.5% after a report that the defense firm’s battlefield communications system was seriously flawed, a claim the company refuted.
Despite late- day weakness, the S&P 500 eked out a fractional gain, leaving intact its longest winning streak since July.
The broader market gauge has now gone 114 trading sessions without a 5% pullback.
President Trump warned of stark consequences if Hamas doesn’t agree to his plan to end the war in Gaza.
Shortly before markets closed in New York, Hamas agreed to meet some of those terms, including a release of hostages, ahead of a Sunday deadline.
During a White House briefing Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reiterated the administration’s plan to layoff government workers and pull funds from Democratic strongholds, like Portland, Oregon.
While the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls data was delayed due to the shutdown, a number of private-sector indicators out in recent days pointed to sluggish hiring, limited layoffs, modest pay gains and easing demand for workers in September. Separately, data from the Institute for Supply Management on Friday showed the US service sector stalled in September as business activity shrank for the first time since the pandemic and orders barely expanded.
That’s left swaps traders confident the Fed will execute another quarter-point cut in October, despite a data blackout.
The dollar notched its worst week since August.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year, which helps set a range of borrowing costs in the US, fell more than five basis points across the same span.
The latest round of big-ticket artificial intelligence deals and partnerships initially drove stocks to fresh highs on Friday, including news that Global Infrastructure Partners was in advanced talks to acquire Aligned Data Centers.
The deal values the company, a major beneficiary of the AI spending boom, at about $40 billion.
In Asia, Japan’s Hitachi Ltd. teamed up with OpenAI on energy and related infrastructure, while Fujitsu Ltd. expanded its collaboration with Nvidia Corp.
Friday’s burst of new partnerships and potential deals came just a day after a share sale lifted OpenAI’s valuation to $500 billion.
Equities have climbed to successive record highs this year, with AI optimism adding to bullish momentum from prospects of monetary policy easing and resilient earnings.
That string of records has fueled questions over how far the rally can run.
Concerns are growing that valuations look overheated as AI spending has yet to translate into profits.
“While it’s been very difficult to stand in front of this market, storm clouds are darkening, including the late-‘90s-like trends unfolding in tech/AI, a disconnect between Fed rhetoric and market expectations around easing,” writes Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli. Bears see investors as “very complacent about the shutdown, with most assuming it will be wrapped up in under two weeks, but there doesn’t seem to be substantive movement toward a compromise.”
Among signs that the market is getting frothy: a sentiment gauge compiled by Barclays Plc has been sitting near a level that indicates exuberance.
A similar Bloomberg Intelligence measure is back to a “manic” zone that’s preceded lukewarm returns in the past.
While investors are wagering that the billions pouring into the AI sector will eventually translate into profits and extend gains in tech shares, benchmarks are also bumping up against technical levels that often signal a decline is imminent.
Treasury options pricing suggests that the shutdown that began Wednesday will last at least 10 to as many as 29 days, according to interest-rate strategists at Morgan Stanley.
Federal Reserve officials disagree about how much further to reduce borrowing costs after lowering their benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point last month.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated his view that officials should proceed carefully with interest-rate cuts while Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who advocated for larger cuts in September, said he’d amend his inflation view if housing costs unexpectedly jumped.
In commodities, oil fell below $61 a barrel this week ahead of an impending OPEC+ supply decision, though crude prices were climbing Friday after President Trump’s warning on Gaza.
Gold was on track for a seventh weekly gain, fueled by central bank buying amid falling US interest rates and lingering inflation concerns.
And despite all the hype around AI and the surge in chip stocks this year, gold miners have actually been the better bet.
What Bloomberg Strategists say….
“Stocks have pared gains after the latest ISM Services data signaled fading economic activity but seeing persistent inflationary pressures.
That’s not a good combination for risk assets, which have been riding on optimism about Fed rate cuts.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live

Corporate News:
* Rivian Automotive Inc. is reworking a key element of its vehicle doors after employees and customers raised concerns over potential safety issues with the current design, according to people familiar with the matter.
* 3M Co. is considering selling billions of dollars of assets from its industrials operations as it looks to carve out low- growth businesses, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Applied Materials Inc. shares dropped 2.7% after a $600 million hit to its 2026 revenue.
* Boeing Co.’s 777X is slated to fly commercially for the first time in early 2027 instead of next year, people familiar with the matter said, a fresh setback to the US plane maker that sets the stage for potentially billions of dollars in accounting charges.
* Huawei Technologies Co. used advanced components from Asia’s largest technology firms in at least some of its leading Ascend AI processors, a research firm discovered during teardowns.

Some of the main moves in markets: 
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4:02 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1744
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3486
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 147.41 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $122,377.36
* Ether rose 0.3% to $4,508.34
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.12%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.69%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $60.67 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $3,887.11 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Winnie Hsu, Cecile Gutscher, Andre Janse van Vuuren, Levin Stamm and Alex Nicholson.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone. -Blaise Pascal, 1623-1662.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  Yom Kippur.  Millions of people around the world today are observing Yom Kippur, the most sacred holiday in the Jewish faith. It is traditionally marked by fasting, repentance and prayer, as worshippers seek atonement and spiritual renewal.

October 2, 1608: Johannes Lippershey demonstrates the first optical telescope (filed patent application) – prototype for all modern telescopes, transforming how we see the cosmos.
October 2, 1959: “The Twilight Zone” debuted on CBS.  Go to article.

1950: Peanuts comic strip debuts.
1968: Redwood National Park established.
Mahatma Gandhi, Indian leader, b. 1869.
Groucho Marx, comedian, b. 1890.
Graham Greene, writer, b. 1904.
Sting, musician, b. 1951.

Jane Goodall, famed primatologist who discovered chimpanzee tool use, dies at 91
Dame Jane Goodall, the world’s preeminent chimpanzee expert, died of natural causes. Read More.

Yosemite’s glaciers have survived 20,000 years — but we could be the first people to see Sierra Nevada ice-free

New research finds the disappearance of glaciers in the Sierra Nevada will be unprecedented in the human history of North America. Read More.

A ‘Great Wave’ is rippling through our galaxy, pushing thousands of stars out of place

A giant ‘wave’ is rippling through the Milky Way, pushing thousands of stars across the galaxy, and scientists don’t know what triggered it. Read More.

Scientists created human egg cells from skin cells — then used them to make embryos

In a proof-of-concept experiment, scientists demonstrated that you can create and fertilize human eggs in the lab using sperm, genes from skin cells, and the “shells” of existing egg cells. Read More.

‘Midnight’ eVTOL smashes its own record in latest test flight — bringing us closer to operational flying taxis

Archer Aviation’s Midnight eVTOL can now cruise at altitudes of 7,000 feet at speeds of 120 miles per hour. Read More.

Jimmy Kimmel saga
Jimmy Kimmel explains how he learned he was being yanked off the air — and thought he’d never return.

Meta will soon use your conversations with its AI chatbot to sell you stuff
The tech company wants to turn your small talk into big sales.

AI is not yet replacing workers in the US, researchers find
Good news: the bots aren’t taking over (yet). A new Yale University study finds that ChatGPT is not causing a massive upheaval in the US labor market.

BMW tells nearly 200,000 vehicle owners to park outside due to fire risk
The recall includes several BMW models, mostly manufactured between 2019 and 2022.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nevşehir, Turkey
Hot-air balloons fly over the fairy chimneys and valleys of Cappadocia, a Unesco world heritage site
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty

Dunsden, UK
Dew-covered cobwebs on a misty morning in Oxfordshire
Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Shutterstock

Marajó Island, Brazil
A man drives a herd of water buffaloes
Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock
Market Closes for October 2^nd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46519.72	+78.62
		+0.17%
S&P 500	6715.35	+4.15
		+0.06%
NASDAQ	22844.05	+88.89
		+0.39%
TSX	30160.59	+52.92
		+0.18%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44936.73	+385.88
		+0.87%
HANG SENG	27287.12	+431.56
		+1.61%
SENSEX	80983.31	+715.69
		+0.89%
FTSE 100*	9427.73	-18.70
		-0.20%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.176	3.184
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.657	3.663
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0827	4.0981
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6881	4.7095

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7162	0.7174
US $	1.3962	1.3939

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6371	0.6108
US $	1.1726	0.8528

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3872.00	3825.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	60.48	61.78

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1990, the Japanese stock market had what was then its best day on record: The Nikkei 225 index skyrocketed 13.2%. Investors were euphoric over rumors the Japanese government would intervene to stop the ongoing market crash. Unfortunately, the rally turned out to be a “dead-cat bounce,” and the Nikkei soon resumed falling.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fifth day, climbing 0.2%, or 52.92 to 30,160.59 in Toronto.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 113 of 214 shares rose, while 101 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.3%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 7.6%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 35.7% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 5.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.8t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.82% compared with 6.91% in the previous session and the average of 8.08% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 34.8917| 1.2| 7/2
Consumer Discretionary | 14.3266| 1.5| 9/0
Industrials | 13.4879| 0.4| 20/9
Financials | 6.3513| 0.1| 15/9
Utilities | 3.7945| 0.4| 8/6
Consumer Staples | 3.2419| 0.3| 8/3
Health Care | 1.3336| 1.6| 3/1
Real Estate | 0.6126| 0.1| 12/7
Energy | -1.3528| 0.0| 9/30
Communication Services | -3.4358| -0.5| 3/2
Materials | -20.3330| -0.4| 19/32
Shopify | 22.3200| 1.3| 20.0| 38.1
Nutrien | 15.0900| 5.6| 96.7| 29.6
Canadian Pacific | Kansas | 10.0800| 1.5| -16.0| 1.7
Franco-Nevada | -8.7990| -2.1| 44.4| 79.6
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | -9.1270| -1.1| -20.6| 108.7
TD Bank | -11.8500| -0.9| 66.0| 45.2
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted its fourth successive record close, buoyed by some rare and critical minerals stocks, even as gold and oil prices were down.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 52.92 points to 30,160.59, with most sectors higher, led by Health Care up near 2.3% and the Battery Metals Index up 1.6%.
Among decliners, Energy was down 0.65% and Telecoms down close to 0.2%.
On the broader market, Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, noted the TSX had “blasted higher” by 54% over two years to the end of September,, one of the top seven performances from it over such a timeframe in the past 60 years.
And Porter also noted, at least a few of the bigger two-year gains were “snapbacks from very deep dives” (e.g., drops in early 1980s, 2009, 2020).
“This stunning run has arrived despite a decidedly so-so economic backdrop, when real GDP growth has averaged little more than 1% and the jobless rate has pushed higher,” he said.
What, Porter asked, does the TSX run tell us about the outlook? He said: “Over time, to be sure, there is a clear, positive relationship between the TSX and real GDP growth, but the index only leads by a quarter.
And, when looked at over a two-year period, the correlation coefficient of 0.38suggests it’s not an especially air-tight relationship.”
He noted the figure is closer to 0.50 since the early 1980s.
“And, sadly,” Porter added, “the recent equity surge has not come close to being matched by growth (in part dueto the spike in gold prices).
But the good news is that the TSX certainly offers a positive counterpoint to the many other downbeat headlines on the current economy.”
Within the broader market, commodities have traditionally been a vital component.
But today, gold fell off a record high Thursday, trading lower as traders take profits and the dollar rose.
Gold for December delivery was down $15.70 to US$3,881.80 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude continued to slide, falling for a fourth day to a near five-month low on reports OPEC+ plans a big supply hike for next month, while demand slows and U.S. inventories rose more than expected last week.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $1.30 to $60.48 per barrel, the lowest since May 9, while December Brent crude was down more than $1.20 to nearer US$64.10.
But the day was, at least in part, rescued by big and small, rare-earth players like Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, UUUU) and Ucore Rare Metals (UCU.V), both of which were mentioned by veteran market watcher David Rosenberg in a note published today with his ‘rare’ and critical’ investment thesis. Energy Fuels closed up 7.6% while Ucore gained 14%.
Among key takeaways from in his note, David Rosenberg said the rare-earth elements sector presents “one of the most strategically compelling investment opportunities in 2025, driven by unprecedented government support, supply chain restructuring, defense sector modernization, and explosive demand from clean energy technologies”.
Rosenberg said the rare earth investment thesis “combines multiple reinforcing demand drivers with a constrained supply response”, and he believes that it is vital to always have exposure to investment themes that are of strategic importance and represent national security issues.
“Tremendous government support and an ongoing geopolitical risk/supply security premium, underscored by China’s moves to weaponize its reserves, serve as a floor under the price that traditional commodity markets (such as most base metals and oil) do not enjoy to nearly the same degree,” he added.
At the conclusion of his note, Rosenberg said when he looks at investment implications for investors, he likes to elaborate on potential sea changes and sees that in the supply dynamics of rare earth market fundamentals.
According to Rosenberg, the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) is the global, comprehensive vehicle to “play this theme”.
Rosenberg said this fund provides diversified exposure to the global rare-earth value chain while maintaining a pure-play focus through companies deriving 50% or more of their revenue from rare earths.
He noted the Fund has exposure to industry players and noted that Energy Fuels provides dual exposure to uranium and rare earth markets and also identified a smaller-cap name such as Ucore, “for allocators going further out on the risk curve”.
Rosenberg added: “In the quest for long-term stability and diversification of global supply chains for rare earths, we believe global investors should have these key “power moves” in their arsenal.”
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — The bullish momentum in US technology stocks won out after a rally to fresh highs was tested by the Trump administration’s plan to slash “thousands” of federal jobs in the second day of a government shutdown.
The Nasdaq 100 ended Thursday higher, climbing to a second- consecutive record after an OpenAI share sale bolstered optimism for artificial intelligence.
The deal catapulted the firm to the world’s most valuable startup with a valuation of $500 billion.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 1.9%, led by Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Intel Corp.
The S&P 500 eked out a 0.06% gain, erasing a 0.3% drop.
Investor jitters driven by the Trump administration’s plans were largely overlooked by the end of the session.
Republicans sought to use the threat of permanent cuts to encourage Democrats to vote to reopen the government.
Trump plans to meet with White House Budget Director Russell Vought to discuss the plan.
Among individual movers, shares of Tesla Inc. fell 5.1% after the company reported a surprise increase in quarterly vehicle sales.
Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli said delivery numbers were “a lot better than the print forecast but actual expectations were a lot higher,” as bears see the electric- vehicle market poised for a downturn.
The stock’s slump weighed on key US benchmarks.
Traders were also contending with the temporary blackout in economic readouts after Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims numbers were delayed by the government closure.
If the shutdown extends the lack of data could put further interest-rate cuts in jeopardy.
Figures from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed US employers dialed back hiring plans in September, even though they also announced fewer job cuts.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls data on Friday will also likely be delayed.
“A quick shutdown that sets back the report a few days might not move the needle, but a long one that also threatens release of mid-month inflation data might keep the Fed on the sidelines, unwilling to cut rates at its late October meeting without the data,” according to Joe Mazzola, head trading and derivatives strategist at Charles Schwab Corp.
“There are signs that a standoff could be lengthy, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying a prolonged closure might hurt US economic growth.”
The dollar climbed, its first advance after four-days of losses.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell to 4.08%.
In commodity markets, a rally in gold cooled after reaching a record while oil fell for a fourth consecutive day.
West Texas Intermediate dipped below $61 a barrel, touching the lowest level in four months as expectations of OPEC+ restoring more idled supply deepened fears of a global glut.
Rate-Cut Bets
Money markets are still almost fully pricing a quarter- point Fed cut at the end of the month and are widely expecting another in December to support the labor market.
“If you really dig into the labor market data, it’s not just an AI structural story, it’s not just a lower immigration story, you are seeing that cyclical demand weakness,” Kim Crawford, global rates portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg Television.
“The clearest part to this puzzle is wage growth, there is a lack of wage growth in the US.”
Some strategists noted that past shutdowns have typically had little macroeconomic impact.
At a White House press conference on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance said he doesn’t anticipate a long shutdown, adding that layoffs will come if it lasts for days or weeks.  

Corporate News:
* Boeing Co.’s 777X is slated to fly commercially for the first time in early 2027 instead of next year, people familiar with the matter said, a fresh setback to the US plane maker that sets the stage for potentially billions of dollars in accounting charges.
* Fair Isaac jumped 18% after unveiling a program that lets mortgage lenders calculate and deliver FICO scores directly to customers. TransUnion and Equifax Inc. slumped.
* Funds under the UBS Group AG umbrella face more than half a billion dollars of exposure to bankrupt auto-parts supplier First Brands Group through various investment strategies, with one ranking as the biggest unsecured creditor, court documents show.
* German artificial intelligence language platform DeepL is exploring a potential initial public offering in the US, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reached a deal to buy Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s petrochemical business for about $9.7 billion in cash.

Some of the main moves in markets: 
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 1.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1718
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3443
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 147.25 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.8% to $120,917.59
* Ether rose 3.7% to $4,497.68
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.09%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.71%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $60.65 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,855.28 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from James Hirai, Julien Ponthus, Andre Janse van Vuuren and Kwaku Gyasi.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The history of our race, and each individual’s experience, are sown thick with evidence that a truth is not hard to kill
and that a lie told well is immortal. -Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Autumn is the hardest season. Leaves are all falling like they are falling in love with the ground. –Andrea Gibson, 1975-2025.

October 1, 1890: Yosemite National Park established.
October 1, 1908: Henry Ford introduced the Model T automobile to the market; each car cost $825. Go to article
October 1, 1949: Mao Zedong proclaims the founding of the People’s Republic of China, reshaping world order in East Asia.
October 1, 1962: Johnny Carson takes over as host of NBC’s Tonight Show, with Groucho Marx as hi8s first guest.

Julie Andrews, actress, b.  1935.

Life-size rock art points the way to oldest human inhabitants of Saudi Arabia — and the desert oases they used

Archaeologists in Saudi Arabia have discovered hundreds of rock art engravings that were carved by humans more than 12,000 years ago. Read More.

Scientists have digitally removed the ‘death masks’ from four Colombian mummies, revealing their faces for the first time

The reconstructions are based on the skulls of four mummified individuals who had masks tightly fitted on their faces. Read More.

Stars that brush past black holes live longer, stranger lives after their close encounters with death

A new study shows survivor stars can live billions of years longer than normal, carrying chemical fingerprints of their violent encounters with the Milky Way’s black hole. Read More.

‘I honestly am not sure on this at all’: Poll reveals public uncertainty over experimenting on conscious lab-grown ‘mini brains’
Hundreds of readers responded to our poll asking if it would be OK to experiment on lab-grown “brains” if they became conscious. Read More.

The richest deal in NHL history
The Minnesota Wild signed Kirill Kaprizov to an 8-year, $136 million extension on Tuesday, giving him the richest contract in NHL history.

Zillow and Redfin face FTC lawsuit
Home-search website Zillow allegedly paid its rival Redfin $100 million to dominate online rental listings, the FTC said in a new lawsuit.

“She was just my daughter yesterday, but today she is a goddess.”

 

— Ananta Shakya, after his 2-year-old daughter Aryatara was chosen in Nepal as the new living goddess worshipped by both Hindus and Buddhists.

RIP JANE GOODALL
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Shepton Mallet, UK
Cattle are prepared for judging at the Dairy Show at the Bath and West showground
Photograph: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

Seoul, South Korea
People walk though a field of yellow cosmos flowers at Olympic Park
Photograph: Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Sydney, Australia
France’s Lucie Prioux competes in the women’s canoe final at the 2025 ICF Slalom World Championships at the Penrith Whitewater stadium
Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 1st, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46441.10	+43.21
		+0.09%
S&P 500	6711.20	+22.74
		+0.34%
NASDAQ	22755.16	+95.15
		+0.42%
TSX	30107.67	+84.86
		+0.28%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44550.85	-381.78
		-0.85%
HANG SENG	26855.56	+232.68
		+0.87%
SENSEX	80983.31	+715.69
		+0.89%
FTSE 100*	9446.43	+96.00
		+1.03%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.184	3.183
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.663	3.631
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0981	4.1503
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7095	4.7310

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7174	0.7182
US $	1.3939	1.3923

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6358	0.6113
US $	1.1735	0.8521

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3825.30	3826.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.78	62.37

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1958, American Express introduced its charge card, which was made of paper printed with purple ink to match the color of Amex’s travelers’ checks. (Plastic came along in 1959.) The $6 annual fee was 20% higher than that of the competing Diners Club card.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 0.3%, or 84.86 to 30,107.67 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 0.9%.
Novagold Resources Inc. had the largest increase, rising 15.0%.
Today, 139 of 213 shares rose, while 72 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 35.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.2% in the past 5 days and rose 5.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 on a trailing basis and 18.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.8t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 6.91% compared with 6.91% in the previous session and the average of 8.14% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 47.2113| 0.9| 37/14
Information Technology | 29.4452| 1.0| 5/4
Financials | 9.7377| 0.1| 11/13
Utilities | 7.4489| 0.7| 9/5
Communication Services | 5.5483| 0.9| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 5.3130| 0.6| 5/4
Industrials | 4.6890| 0.1| 18/10
Health Care | 1.8554| 2.3| 4/0
Consumer Staples | 0.0749| 0.0| 3/7
Real Estate | -0.4674| -0.1| 14/5
Energy | -26.0142| -0.6| 28/10
Shopify | 15.8500| 0.9| -36.0| 36.4
Barrick Mining | 15.3600| 2.8| -42.3| 110.9
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 10.2200| 1.2| -55.9| 111.0
Brookfield Corp | -8.2340| -0.9| -43.0| 14.6
Nutrien | -9.4500| -3.4| 4.6| 22.7
Enbridge | -15.9800| -1.5| -24.1| 13.4
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted it’s third-straight record close on Wednesday, a first such string of records since mid-September, boosted by gold’s rise to a record high, which led to Base Metals being among leading sectors, most of which were higher.
With the Energy sector one of only a few losers on the day, down a modest 0.15%, Base Metals helped push the resource-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index up 84.86 points. or 0.3%, to 30,107.67.
Health Care was the biggest gainer, up near 3%.
Still, it was the Energy sector that was very much in the news late Wednesday afternoon as Alberta’s government, acting as proponent, said it will lead a technical advisory group of companies with indigenous participants to advance a West Coast pipeline application
Among commodities, gold had traded at a fresh record late midafternoon Wednesday as the partial shutdown of the U.S. government today prompted further safe-haven buying, while a report showed the U.S. private sector shed jobs last month, showing a slowing economy and boosting the outlook for interest-rate cuts.
Gold for December delivery was up $17.00 to US$3,890.20 per ounce.
However, likely limiting overall market gains, West Texas Intermediate oil closed lower for a third day following a report saying OPEC+ is mulling an outsized production increase in November, while U.S. inventories rose more than expected last week.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $0.59 to settle at US$61.78 per barrel, while December Brent crude was last seen down $0.71 to US$65.32.
Still on commodity related issues, Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, noted that over the past year, U.S. electricity prices have bolted higher by 6.2%.
“Amazingly,” he said, “that is actually a tad cooler than the supercharged 6.5% average annual increase over the past five years”.
According to Porter, there’s no mystery as to what’s going on here as the “voracious appetite” for power from data centers has “sent once-sleepy electricity demand skyward”.
Given electricity’s near-2.5% weight in the CPI, the price surge has alone contributed 0.15 ppt to overall inflation, or about 0.1 ppt more than what would be ‘normal’ price increases in the sector, he Porter added.
Porter noted it’s currently “a more moderate picture” in Canada, both because of “somewhat” less frothy demand and more regulated prices. In fact, he said, while rising 3.2% on average in the past five years, half the U.S. pace-electricity costs are up just 1.4% in the past year.
On the economics front, Tiago Figueiredo, a Desjardins macro strategist, said, after reading the Bank of Canada’s latest ‘Summary of Deliberations’, there were several developments since the July Monetary Policy Report that pushed the BoC to resume an interest rate easing cycle in September, even as there were some arguments in favor of keeping policy unchanged, while Governing Council members didn’t offer any clues about the future path.
According to Figueiredo, a softening labor market, particularly in parts of the economy that were not as trade exposed “startled” the Governing Council.
He noted: given that survey data pointed to subdued hiring intentions, policymakers were worried that ongoing “uncertainty about U.S. trade policy could lead to further labour market weakness across the economy”.
And outside of the labor market, the latest inflation data also suggested that, one, upward momentum in core inflation had dissipated, and two, the federal government’s decision to remove most retaliatory tariffs meant less upward pressure on prices going forward.
While members agreed that upside risks to price growth had diminished, they had not gone away, Figueiredo noted.
The Governing Council viewed the strong consumption growth in the second quarter as a potential indicator of stronger economic momentum going forward, Figueiredo said, before adding they pointed to past rate cuts as potential drivers of that strength and reiterated that past rate cuts were still spreading through the economy.
But, Figueiredo said, the Governing Council noted that easing trade uncertainty would likely mean policymakers would present a baseline projection at the October MPR.
Governing Council emphasized that they would continue to look over a shorter horizon than usual.
“Today’s release doesn’t change the story for us and we continue to see the balance of risks skewed towards further easing.
As such, we anticipate that policymakers will lower the overnight rate to a trough of 2.00%,” he added.
US
By Rheaa Rao
(Bloomberg) — US stocks ended Wednesday’s session higher, notching a new record and seemingly shrugging off the first government shutdown in nearly seven years.
Treasuries rallied after private payrolls data reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates later this month.
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rose for a fourth consecutive session.
On Wednesday, the former was boosted by the health-care sector on optimism stemming from Pfizer Inc.’s deal with the White House.
Tech names like Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. also helped push the index 0.3% higher for the day.
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.08% before hovering around 4.10%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held steady.
Gold reached a fresh all-time high.
The government shutdown threatens a blackout in crucial economic data that the Fed needs to make its rate decisions, meaning economists, traders and policymakers will rely more on private reports like the ones that came in on Wednesday.
The ADP report showed payrolls at US companies unexpectedly dropped in September, consistent with other data over the past month indicating that the labor market is slowing.
That prompted traders to add to bets on two more Fed rate cuts this year.
US factory activity shrank in September for a seventh straight month, according to the Institute for Supply Management.
The JOLTS report on Tuesday, had signaled that demand for
workers are slowing, giving traders a snapshot of the labor market at a time the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls data will likely be delayed.
Given all this information, some investors don’t think the absence of Friday’s report will derail the Fed.
“We believe that even if the September nonfarm payroll report cannot be published before the Fed meeting, officials will have enough information about the labor market to deliver another 25-basis point ‘insurance’ cut at the October meeting,” said Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg.
Others are also looking at previous shutdowns to determine that such events don’t last long and often have a negligible macroeconomic impact.
“What sets this shutdown apart is the threat of permanent layoffs for non-essential federal staff, which, while possibly political bluster and subject to legal challenges, could prolong the drag on public sector payrolls,” Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.
At a White House press conference on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance said he doesn’t anticipate a long shutdown, adding that layoffs will come if it lasts days or weeks.
Republicans are leaning into hardball tactics to pressure Democrats to cave to end the shutdown, with White House Budget Director Russell Vought planning to swiftly dismiss federal workers.
But for now, Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup’s head of US equity trading strategy, doesn’t really see the shutdown hurting stocks.
“For this to really impact equity markets you’re going to need it to last for a while, you’re going to need to see pretty large layoffs, or something happen in the bond market to spill over into the equity market,” he said on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Late-in-the-year seasonality favors stocks as the dominant US asset, while the dollar has been doomed to be a laggard.
This year is likely to follow that pattern, even as a US shutdown adds a new factor into the mix.”
— Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live
That said, on the long term, the government shutdown could magnify concerns about US policy stability, Lauren Goodwin, economist and chief market strategist at New York Life Investments, wrote in a note.
“Investors can operate under a simple rule of thumb: the longer a shutdown lasts, the greater its effects on consumer confidence, economic activity, and market outcomes,” she said. 

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1730
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3479
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 147.10 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $117,390.42
* Ether rose 3.3% to $4,334.3
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.10%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.70%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $61.97 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,867.16 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren, Emily Graffeo, Isabelle Lee and Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress; working together is success. –Edward Everett Hale, 1822-1909.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com