Category: Newsletters

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

May 23, 1784: Benjamin Franklin announces his invention of bifocals, enabling clear vision for both near and far distances.
May 23, 1873 Canada’s North West Mounted Police force was established. Go to article

May 23, 1895: NY Public Library founded.
Joan Collins, actress, b.1933.
Drew Carey, actor, b. 1961.

Prince William debuts new docuseries 
The six-part series offers a rare insight into “one of the most dangerous jobs on the planet.”

Time to break out the popcorn
Summer movie season kicks off this weekend. Here are 21 films you might want to check out.

‘Super-vision’ contact lenses let wearers see in the dark — even with their eyes closed
Researchers have developed new contact lenses that enable vision in the near-infrared range, and they could restore color perception to people with color blindness. Read More.

2,300-year-old gold ring found in Israel was likely buried by a betrothed girl
A gold ring with a red gemstone found in Israel dates to the Hellenistic period and may have been buried in a coming-of-age ritual. Read More.

‘Strange’ star pulses detected in search for extraterrestrial intelligence
A retired researcher has detected an unusual pulse in the light of nearby stars while looking for signs of extraterrestrial intelligence. Aliens are one possible explanation for the strange signal, but as with every other unexplained space phenomenon, it’s probably not aliens. Read More.

A dozen black holes may be ‘wandering’ through our galaxy — and they’re the rarest type in the universe
Dozens of ‘wandering’ black holes could be tumbling through our galaxy right now, new simulations hint. Their existence could help solve a longstanding cosmic puzzle. Read More.

An udderly confused cow found itself way up in the air over Switzerland, immortalized in this photo.

The mascot for a new Northwest soccer team got roasted by Stephen Colbert. “Not only is he horrifying, he’s wearing his own children as hair!” Colbert exclaimed.

Sometimes, all people need is someone to listen. A man with a sign and a Subaru set out to be that someone for people scattered across hundreds of miles, at no charge. What he’s discovered: “Life is not all sorrow and challenges. It’s actually pretty beautiful some of the time.” This story will make you think (and perhaps tear up). 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sydney, Australia
Fireworks explode as the sails of the Sydney Opera House are illuminated at the start of the annual Vivid Sydney festival
Photograph: Ayush Kumar/AFP/Getty

Chelsea flower show 2025
photograph: Sarah Lee

Taicang, China
Containers stacked at a port in Jiangsu province
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 23^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41603.07	-256.02
		-0.61
S&P 500	5802.82	-39.19
		-0.67%
NASDAQ	18737.21	-188.52
		-1.00%
TSX	25879.95	+25.94
		+0.10%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37160.47	+174.60
		+0.47%
HANG SENG	23601.26	+56.95
		+0.24
SENSEX	81721.08	+769.09
		+0.95%
FTSE 100*	8717.97	-21.29
		-0.24%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.352	3.373
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.648	3.666
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.5110	4.5287
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0374	5.0395

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7283	0.7283
US $	1.3730	1.3856

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5610	0.6406
US $	1.1368	0.8796

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3342.65	3299.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.84	62.56

Market Commentary:
In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield. -Warren Buffett, b. 1930.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.1%, or 25.94 to 25,879.95 in Toronto.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 10.0%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 18.1%.
Today, 129 of 217 shares rose, while 79 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.2%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.4%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended April 4
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on May 20, 2025, and 20.6% above its low on June 17, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.17t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.33% compared with 14.61% in the previous session and the average of 27.35% over the past month

Index Points
Energy | 50.4992| 1.2| 34/5
Materials | 44.6240| 1.3| 40/9
Consumer Staples | 7.2257| 0.7| 9/1
Utilities | 3.4040| 0.3| 10/4
Health Care | 0.3265| 0.5| 2/2
Real Estate | -1.0619| -0.2| 8/9
Consumer Discretionary | -2.2185| -0.3| 2/7
Communication Services | -2.9374| -0.5| 0/4
Financials | -6.1746| -0.1| 13/11
Industrials | -23.3138| -0.7| 9/19
Information Technology | -44.4308| -1.8| 2/8
Cameco | 22.4500| 10.0| 194.8| 9.0
Enbridge | 9.1720| 1.0| -46.1| 3.7
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 8.9260| 1.6| -14.6| 43.6
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -9.7590| -1.3| -23.6| 5.7
Canadian National | -11.9500| -2.1| -3.5| -1.2
Shopify | -31.3800| -2.6| -19.7| -8.8
The Toronto Stock Exchange has now been down just one session in the last 13 after the resources heavy index rose again on Friday, buoyed by higher commodity prices, but even as Rosenberg Research remains underweight on the Energy sector and while investors are unsure of what to expect from the Bank of Canada when it meets again on June 4.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose modest 25.9 points to close at 25,879.95.
Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet noted going in to today the index was up 4.08% month to date, and 4.55% year to date.
Sectors were mixed, with Base Metals the only one rising by more than 1% and Information Technology the sole one falling by more than 1%.
Of commodities, gold was sharply higher late afternoon Friday as the dollar plunged after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union on June 1, adding yet more turmoil for the global economy and raising safe-haven demand.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $63.50 to US$3,387.10 per ounce, pressing close to the April 21 record high of $3,425.30.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose for the first time in four days despite concerns over rising supply as the high-demand summer driving season begins this weekend with the U.S. Memorial Day holiday.
WTI oil for July delivery closed up $0.33 to settle at US$61.53 per barrel, while July Brent crude was last seen up $0.30 to US$64.74.
Still, Rosenberg Research in an Energy Sector Outlook entitled ‘Oil’s Not Well’ said it remains underweight on the sector: “the macro-outlook looks bad, and the risk-reward profile is constrained by mediocre fundamentals.”
Rosenberg said the “rapid” decline in oil prices shows little sign of abating given the terrible macro-outlook and OPEC+ supply pressure.
It added this leads to little upside for the Energy sector, and its models do not have a favorable view.
“The risk-reward profile and fundamentals are mediocre, but we do highlight a few brighter spots at the subsector level”.
Rosenberg Research said prospects for the U.S. Energy sector “look tactically bleak”, with oil and natural gas prices depressed and showing little upside over the next six months.
It added trade wars have reduced the outlook for manufacturing production, exports, and container shipping volumes around the world.
It remains underweight Energy, given both a problematic macro-outlook and the weak risk-reward profile.
In conclusion, the research said: “We’ve been advising investors to trim risk away from highly cyclically exposed sectors like Consumer Discretionary, and the current market valuation represents a great exit point for that purpose.
However, the Energy sector isn’t a promising destination for capital— the falling global growth outlook and low oil and natural gas prices leave little opportunity on the table, so we remain underweight.”
Meanwhile, founder David Rosenberg, in a separate note of his own said today’s Canadian retail sales number was “broadly mixed”, but added the Bank of Canada “should find comfort” in the back-to-back dips in the price deflator.
Rosenberg noted the headline came in “a tad above” expectations, up 0.8% month over month,(consensus was a rise of 0.7%).
What was key was the “woeful” -0.7% plunge in the ex-auto segment.
That was the steepest slide since May of last year, he added.
Rosenberg said even though much of that weakness reflected a price induced 6.5% MoM drop in gasoline prices, even after stripping out this and autos, retail sales still only managed to eke out a gain of less than 0.2% on the month.
He added: “Bad for the Canadian dollar but good for the GoC bond market, and all of a sudden, the Bank of Canada is back in play.
In fact, what stood out in the report was the -0.1% MoM reading in the retail price deflator for the second month in a row, and in conjunction with the deflated producer price data we got for April, tells us that the hot CPI number — which was mostly food — was actually more lukewarm than it seemed on the surface.”
Rosenberg noted the year over year trend in pricing power in the broad retail sector has slowed from +2.5% in January to +2.3% in February and now to +2.2% as of March.
“That should be fodder for the BoC policy doves and GoC bond bulls alike,” he said.
Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets in his regular ‘The Week Ahead’ column noted core inflation measures in Canada would suggest the BoC should be holding steady on rates in June, with April ex-energy measures coming in on the high side.
Shenfeld said that may well be the BoC decision in two weeks, but he added it would be based on what the data is showing now.
“In terms of where it’s headed,” he added, “the coming week’s GDP news will shed much lighter, given the weight that the central bank rightly assigns to economic slack, the so-called “output gap,” in steering turns in inflation.”
Taylor Schleich, Director, Economics and Strategy at National Bank Financial, for his part noted that despite Canada’s weaker growth outlook, poorer job market prospects and better contained inflation, 2025 policy rate expectations have evolved similarly here compared to the United States.
As it stands, overnight index swap markets are priced for 50 bps of Fed easing this year while just over one BoC cut is discounted.
Schleich noted consensus expects 50 bps from both.
He said: “Relative to market pricing, we think risks are skewed in the opposite direction.
To us, the BoC is likely to deliver more easing than is priced (and more than consensus).
Fed pricing is closer to ‘fair value’ but listening to the FOMC, there’s a clearer path to one (or no) cuts versus more than two.”
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street was rattled by President Donald Trump’s threats to impose aggressive tariffs on the European Union and Apple Inc., with stocks falling and the dollar hitting its lowest level since December 2023.
The S&P 500 extended losses as Trump said he’s “not looking for a deal” with the EU, reiterating tariffs would be set at 50%.
Earlier Friday, the market got some relief as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US could strike “several large” trade deals in the next couple of weeks.
Apple fell 3%, down for an eighth straight session.
United States Steel Corp. soared 21% as Trump backed a partnership with Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp. Benchmark 10-year Treasuries held gains as Bessent said regulators may ease a capital rule on the market, which could reduce yields.
Haven currencies like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc climbed alongside gold.
Trump said that the 25% tariff he threatened against Apple earlier Friday would also be aimed at device makers including Samsung Electronics Co. to spur them into moving manufacturing of their products to the US.
The president said in a social media post that the higher charge on the EU would start on June 1 because “our discussions with them are going nowhere.”
The sudden move underscores the ongoing risk that shifts in US policy can abruptly upend market dynamics at short notice.
Markets had rebounded in recent weeks on optimism that Trump was softening his approach to the tariffs and investor attention had turned to concerns about the ballooning US debt and deficits.
“Volatility remains the theme,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.
“This is a sharp reminder that the tariffs will continue to be a source of major uncertainty until there are meaningful agreements finalized.”
That said, Navellier says these threats are negotiating tactics to give President Trump negotiating leverage, so he would be “shocked” if these proposed tariffs are imposed.
The S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, down for a fourth straight day.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.9%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.9%, with tariff-exposed autos among the biggest decliners.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.51%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%.
“Just when I thought it was safe to go back into markets, look what happens,” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors.
“Uncertainty is continually ramping up — it’s not about to come down at all.
This is on trend in terms of Trump’s tactics of imposing tariffs,” he added.
The president’s tariff threats represented a fresh round of trade brinkmanship; after indicating last week he was looking to wind down talks with partners over his April 2 duties, which he paused for 90 days to allow for negotiations.
“It’s going to keep markets on edge,” said Aneeka Gupta, head of macroeconomic research at Wisdom Tree UK Ltd.
“Markets were hoping news on tariffs had abated until at least the 90-day pause expired, but that’s clearly not the case.
Uncertainties are here to stay.
We’re in for a period of very high volatility.”
To Capital Economics, Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff on the EU from June may well turn out to be a “negotiating tactic” and seems “very unlikely” to be where tariffs settle over the long run.
“At this stage, we are not inclined to change our working assumption that tariffs on the EU will ultimately settle around 10% but this underlines that there are risks and that the road to an agreement could be rocky,” the firm said.
Eric Teal at Comerica Wealth Management said that the EU implications would be less impactful than many of the Asian emerging markets that are key components to the technology sector supply chain.
“Although policy uncertainty injects more investment uncertainty, we believe this is part of the negotiating thesis to cut individual or regional deals, and we still believe that most companies and the economy are well positioned to power through the temporary higher import prices,” he said.
The Trump administration’s fast-changing tariff policies have sent equities spiraling on recession fears and concerns about the safety of US assets, but they’ve rebounded from April’s lows as the president touted progress in tariff negotiations.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon recently warned against complacency in the face of a slew of risks, citing everything from inflation and credit spreads to geopolitics.
“Concerns over trade, fiscal deficits, and growth may be less evident in equity markets when considering the broader market’s impressive recovery from the April lows, but they still appear to be relevant to the dollar,” said Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.
Turnquist noted the greenback has struggled to gain traction over the last month as de-dollarization trends continue against a backdrop of rising deficit forecasts and a US debt downgrade.
The latest tariff threats came at a time when bond investors are demanding more compensation to hold long-dated US debt as global markets grow anxious about the widening fiscal deficit in the world’s biggest economy.
The US 10-year term premium — or the extra return investors demand to own longer-term debt instead of a series of shorter ones — has climbed to near 1%, a level last seen in 2014.
It’s a measure of how jittery investors are about plans to raise the scale of future borrowing.
“While there is a risk that deficit fears lead to progressively higher yields in the weeks ahead, we believe that the Fed and/or Trump administration would likely make adjustments in the event of much higher yields,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
To Marcelli, that means high grade and investment grade bonds represent good value at current levels for investors seeking portfolio income.

Corporate Highlights:
* Oracle Corp. will spend around $40 billion on Nvidia Corp.’s high-performance computer chips to power OpenAI’s new US data center in Abilene, Texas,, the Financial Times reported, citing several people familiar with the matter.
* Trump on Friday signed orders meant to accelerate the construction of nuclear power plants, including small, untested designs that offer the promise of rapid deployment but have yet to be built in the US.
* Boeing Co. has reached a tentative agreement with the US Justice Department that would allow the plane maker to avoid criminal charges for two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jets more than six years ago.
* Salesforce Inc. is in talks to acquire software company Informatica Inc., rebooting a pursuit that fell through last year, people familiar with the matter said.
* CommScope Holding Co. is exploring a sale of its broadband connectivity and cable arm, according to people with knowledge of the matter, as the network infrastructure firm unloads assets to repay debt.
* Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. fees are under fresh scrutiny from European Union antitrust enforcers, less than a decade after a series of probes ended with hefty fines and an agreement to cut some of their controversial levies.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%
* The euro rose 0.7% to $1.1363
* The British pound rose 0.9% to $1.3535
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 142.51 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.1% to $108,725.93
* Ether fell 3.1% to $2,559.67
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.51%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.68%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $61.61 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2% to $3,361.06 an ounce

-With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani, Julien Ponthus, Andre Janse van Vuuren and Lynn Thomasson.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now.— Chinese Proverb
 
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
 
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
May 21, 1904:FIFA is founded as the governing body of football and takes responsibility for organizing the World Cup.
May 21, 1980: “The Empire Strikes Back,” the second movie in the “Star Wars” series, was released. Go to article

Alexander Pope, poet, b.1688.
Al Franken, comedian, b. 1951.

The International Booker Prize goes to …
Indian author Banu Mushtaq and her translator Deepa Bhasthi won the prize for fiction for “Heart Lamp,” a collection of 12 tales chronicling the lives of women in southern India. It’s the first time a short story collection has been honored.

After nearly 5 years, ‘Fortnite’ returns to Apple’s app store
Epic Games’ popular multiplayer shooter video game has been banned from the store since 2020. Apple claimed the gaming giant violated its policies by introducing a way for users to circumvent Apple’s in-app payment system. 

Speaking of ‘Fortnite,’ there’s a new controversy
Hollywood’s actors’ union has filed an unfair labor practice charge against Llama Productions, a subsidiary of Epic Games, for allegedly replacing actors’ work in “Fortnite” with artificial intelligence.

Who steals art off a tombstone? Well, people are strange.
A bust of Doors frontman Jim Morrison that once adorned his grave in the Père Lachaise cemetery in Paris disappeared 37 years ago. Last week, the sculpture was found during a police investigation.

‘It epitomises the strangeness of Sutton Hoo’: 6th-century bucket found at Anglo-Saxon ship burial holds human cremation
Archaeologists found a cremation burial while examining the inside of a bucket from Sutton Hoo, a 1,400-year-old boat burial site in England.

Hospital superbug can feed on medical plastic, first-of-its-kind study reveals
Pseudomonas aeruginosa is associated with 559,000 yearly deaths worldwide, and many of them come from hospital-acquired infections. A new study suggests it may be thriving in sterile environments by feeding on medical plastics.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Bangkok, Thailand
A lion dance troupe prepare for a performance at the Erawan Shrine
Photograph: Rungroj Yongrit/EPA

San Francisco, US
A paddleboarder passes a ship in the waters off Crane Cove Park
Photograph: Jessica Christian/San Francisco Chronicle/AP

locking willow sparrows in Turkiye’s Bursa
BURSA, TURKIYE – MAY 20: Willow sparrows, one of the migratory bird species, are seen flying in flocks on May 20, 2025 in Karacabey district of Bursa, Turkiye. (Photo by Alper Tuydes /Anadolu via Getty Images)
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 21^st, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41860.44	-816.80
		-1.91%
S&P 500	5844.61	-95.85
		-1.61%
NASDAQ	18872.64	-270.07
		-1.41%
TSX	25839.17	-216.46
		-0.83%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37298.98	-230.51
		-0.61%
HANG SENG	23827.78	+146.30
		+0.62%
SENSEX	81596.63	+410.19
		+0.51%
FTSE 100*	8786.46	+5.34
		+0.06%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.398	3.297
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.689	3.604
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5985	4.4810
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0923	4.9634

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7210	0.7185
US $	1.3869	1.3917

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5691	0.6373
US $	1.1314	0.8838

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3261.55	3230.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.56	62.69

Market Commentary:
“A great business at a fair price is superior to a fair business at a great price.” -Charlie Munger’s #1 Lesson of Investing.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.8% at 25,839.17 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 3% on April 10 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.2%.
ATS Corp. had the largest drop, falling 6.1%.
Today, 136 of 217 shares fell, while 79 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 4%
* The index advanced 15% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 10% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.1% below its 52-week high on May 20, 2025 and 20.4% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 7.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 on a trailing basis and 16.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalizationof C$4.21t 30-day price volatility fell to 20.85% compared with 21.38% in he previous session and the average of 29.03% over the past month
Index Points
Financials | -87.0047| -1.0| 8/16
Information Technology | -80.9998| -3.2| 1/9
Industrials | -42.3720| -1.3| 5/23
Energy | -19.2336| -0.5| 12/29
Consumer Discretionary | -10.5768| -1.2| 3/7
Real Estate | -9.6196| -2.1| 1/18
Consumer Staples | -8.2076| -0.8| 2/8
Communication Services | -2.2205| -0.4| 1/4
Health Care | -1.5554| -2.5| 0/4
Utilities | -0.7237| -0.1| 8/7
Materials | 46.0619| 1.3| 38/11
Shopify | -52.9500| -4.2| 8.2| -7.3
Brookfield Corp | -31.4900| -3.8| 78.6| -4.4
Constellation Software | -23.4700| -3.4| 25.2| 9.8
Nutrien | 3.5390| 1.3| 15.1| 28.6
Wheaton Precious Metals | 8.9110| 2.4| 36.1| 46.1
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 12.5600| 2.3| 3.9| 42.5
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for the first session in the last 11 on Wednesday, with traders taking profits after the index posted a series of record high closes in recent days, and also on some investor nerves as TD Bank will provide a picture on the health of the Canadian consumer and industry credit losses when it releases second-quarter earnings tomorrow.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 216.46 points to 25,839.17.
Among sectors, Health Care and Information Technology were the biggest decliners, down 2.64% and 2.32% respectively.
Of individual stocks, market focus is on Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO, TD) which will launch the big banks’ second-quarter earnings season tomorrow, Thursday.
Analysts at National Bank said in a note last week that they forecast cash earnings per share of $1.81, compared to a consensus $1.75.
The FactSet forecast is $1.77 versus $2.04 a year earlier.
National Bank expects key themes in the TD result to include: another strategic review update; elevated expense growth (excluding AML remediation costs); and an indication that TD’s buyback pace is on track to meet objectives.
National Bank doesn’t expect a dividend increase.
Bigger picture, market focus is already on the Bank of Canada meeting set for June to see if it cuts the key benchmark interest rate, after holding it steady in April.
According to one Macquarie economist, the BoC is likely to await more data and assess the outlook before introducing any more rate cuts.
David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, noted Canada’s inflation data yesterday was mixed for April.
On the inflation outlook ahead, Macquarie expects an “uneven moderation” in underlying inflation in Canada.
It noted the unemployment rate has risen to 6.9% and private-sector wage growth has “moderated sharply.”
Moreover, Macquarie said, shelter inflation is likely to continue to subside with low population growth a driver.
In terms of the BoC’s outlook, Macquarie added yesterday’s data lowered the overnight index swap market’s implied probability of a rate cut on June 4 to near 30% (from 68% before the decision).
While Macquarie continues to see intermittent cuts of 75 bps from the BoC by year end, it said recent firm data leads it to push out the timing of its next expected cut to July from June.
In Macquarie’s view the BoC is likely to await more data and assess the outlook with a new Monetary Policy Report forecast in July.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for a second day on Wednesday as rising inventories offset early buying that followed a report Israel is readying a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
WTI oil for July delivery closed $0.46 to settle at US$61.57 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen down $0.53 to US$64.85.
But gold prices rose for a third-straight session late afternoon on Wednesday on higher geopolitical risk following a report that Israel is planning to strike at Iranian nuclear facilities while the dollar weakened.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$36.50 to US$3,349.10 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth, Denitsa Tsekova and Emily Graffeo
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s worries about a ballooning deficit that threatens America’s status as a haven were reflected in a $16 billion Treasury sale that saw lackluster demand – with stocks, bonds and the dollar falling.
Treasuries got hit after a weak auction of 20-year bonds, whose 5% coupon rate was the highest since the tenor was reintroduced in 2020.
Long-term debt bore the brunt of the selling, with 30-year yields jumping 11 basis points toward the highest since October 2023.
After almost erasing losses, the S&P 500 dropped over 1.5%.
The greenback slipped against most major currencies.
Bitcoin pared its advance but was still set for a record.
“The soft 20-year auction fueled additional weakness,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading.
“It has a been a theme all week starting with the Moody’s downgrade.
Additionally, there is the deficit/budget debate being fought in the background of this environment.”
Traders have been piling into bets that long-term bond yields would surge on concerns over the US’s swelling debt and deficits, with Moody’s Ratings on Friday lowering the nation’s credit score below the top triple-A level.
For many, the message was: Unless America gets its finances in order, the perceived risks of lending to the government will rise.
The White House amped up the pressure on Republicans on Wednesday urging lawmakers to quickly approve President Donald Trump’s signature tax bill, adding that a failure to do so would be the “ultimate betrayal.”
Former US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he’s more alarmed by the country’s growing budget deficit than its trade imbalances and urged Washington to prioritize fiscal repair.
“I’m very concerned,” he said during a panel discussion at the Qatar Economic Forum on Wednesday.
“The budget deficit is a larger concern to me than the trade deficit. So I’m on the side of, I hope we do get more spending cuts — something that’s very important.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.6%.
The Nasdaq 100 lost 1.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.9%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose 10 basis points to 4.59%.
A dollar gauge slid 0.3%.
The murky economic outlook is fueling hedging activity in Treasury options, with investors targeting higher rates on longer-dated bonds by the end of the year.
Those wagers echo sentiment on Wall Street, where strategists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. are lifting their forecasts for yields.
At BTIG, Jonathan Krinsky says bonds finally appear to be getting equities’ attention.
“The move in the 10-year yield meaningfully above 4.5% is something that confirms a key change in long-term yields,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“These higher yields make it much tougher to justify today’s very high valuation levels.  So, it’s something that will likely create some renewed headwinds for stocks.”
To George Saravelos at Deutsche Bank, it is hard for US equities to stay resilient in this environment.
“The 2023-24 period saw a combined rise in US yields and equities as the market was revising US growth expectations higher. This was entirely reasonable,” he said.
“Today is very different. It is hard to make the case that such a (negative) driver of the rising cost of capital is positive for risk assets.”
Saravelos also said that the most troubling part of the market reaction to the bond auction was that the dollar weakened at the same time.
“At the core of the problem is that foreign investors are simply no longer willing to finance US twin deficits at current level of prices,” he said.
“Washington developments will dominate the headlines for the rest of the week, amidst a lack of catalysts on the corporate earnings and economic data fronts,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
Republicans made some headway in advancing Trump’s bill on Wednesday.
House Speaker Mike Johnson announced that he had an agreement with lawmakers from high-tax states to increase the limit on the state and local tax deduction to $40,000, winning a key faction of members who had threatened to block the legislation.
“The budget is like the bad news, good news, bad news joke,” said Chris Low at FHN Financial.
“The first bad news, it has been out of control for years — which is why Moody’s downgraded US debt.
The good news, the current budget is tracking to stabilize the deficit and could even reduce it.
The second bad news, the budget needs to shrink, not stabilize.”
While markets have benefited from softer rhetoric by the Trump administration around trade — particularly from the temporary truce with China – the stock recovery back to pre- tariff highs trails other major global indexes.
The S&P 500 is still below its Feb. 19 record, while the MSCI ex-US hit a new high this week.
US stocks are still laggards in global equity markets this year.
For them to sustain the rally and reclaim their usual spot at the top of the pack, Corporate America’s profit engine needs to rev back up, analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence say.
The S&P 500 has underperformed a gauge of 22 developed markets outside of the US since late last year as the pace of US earnings growth relative to the rest of the world narrowed, according to an analysis by BI’s Nathaniel Welnhofer.
The last time such a phenomenon occurred was in 2017, when the US stock benchmark’s earnings growth trailed its overseas peers.

Corporate Highlights:
* Walt Disney Co. notified Florida-based employees who are losing temporary legal residency in the US that their jobs would be terminated next month after the Supreme Court ruled Monday that the Trump administration could revoke protections for 350,000 Venezuelans.
* Alphabet Inc. climbed after the company said it will offer “AI mode” in search to all US users, showing its commitment to redesigning its core business to keep pace with new rivals in the artificial intelligence age.
* Nvidia Corp. chief Jensen Huang blasted the “failure” of US restrictions intended to contain China’s technological ascent, calling on the White House to lower barriers to AI chip sales before American firms cede that market to up-and-coming rivals such as Huawei Technologies Co.
* OpenAI will acquire the AI device startup co-founded by Apple Inc. veteran Jony Ive in a nearly $6.5 billion all-stock deal, joining forces with the legendary designer to make a push into hardware.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby told shareholders that the carrier is seeing “at least a stable revenue and booking environment” heading into the Memorial Day weekend and start of the summer travel season.
* Target Corp. cut its sales forecast following a sharp pullback in spending and a hit from tariffs, boycotts and consumer confidence.
* Lowe’s Cos. comparable sales beat expectations during the latest quarter as shoppers-maintained home spending despite weakening consumer sentiment and economic turbulence.
* TJX Cos. executives said the company’s global network of vendors and flexibility on price and merchandise will help the company manage tariff pressures.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. tumbled after the Guardian reported the insurer secretly paid nursing homes bonuses to reduce hospital transfers for ailing residents.
* Boeing Co. has told customers that it’s approaching a key production target that would signal manufacturing of its all-important 737 jet is back on track following last year’s harrowing mid-air accident.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.6% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1316
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3413
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 143.76 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $108,745.73
* Ether was little changed at $2,512.58
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 4.59%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.76%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $61.33 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,318.67 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The chief cause of failure is substituting what you want most for what you want now. –Zig Ziglar, 1926-2012.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

May 20, 1873: Levi Strauss and Jacob Davis invent blue jeans, which become one of the most popular types of trousers worldwide.
May 20, 1927: First Trans-Atlantic flight, Charles Lindbergh.
May 20, 1932: Amelia Earhart Atlantic crossing
May 20, 1939: Regular trans-Atlantic air service began as a Pan American Airways plane took off from Port Washington, N.Y., bound for Europe. 
Go to article

Henri Rousseau, artist, b. 1844.
Honoré de Balzac, writer, b.1799

Who can believe it?
Zak Starkey and The Who have parted ways for the second time in a month. Although guitarist Pete Townshend implied in his statement that the split was mutual, Starkey claimed he had been “fired” from the legendary band.

Denzel Washington gets a surprise at Cannes
The two-time Academy Award-winning actor was surprised with an honorary Palme d’Or right before the screening of “Highest 2 Lowest,” his new film with long-time collaborator Spike Lee.

Viking Age women may have wielded weapons when pregnant, sagas and ancient artifacts hint.

‘It epitomises the strangeness of Sutton Hoo’: 6th-century bucket found at Anglo-Saxon ship burial holds human cremation

Venus may be geologically ‘alive’ after all, reanalysis of 30-year-old NASA data reveals

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
Chelsea pensioner Peter Wilson poses with a floral installation of a punk sporting a mohawk hairstyle, made of pampas grass, tropical blooms and preserved leaves by Ricky Paul Flowers at the Chelsea flower show
Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA

Santa Cruz, Bolivia
Men dressed as human statues take part in a parade during the Long Night of Museums
Photograph: Juan Carlos Torrejon/EPA

London, UKA
woman dressed as a mushroom walks through a rose garden at the RHS Chelsea flower fhow
Photograph: James Manning/PA
Market Closes for May 20^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42677.24	-114.83
		-0.27%
S&P 500	5940.46	-23.14
		-0.39%
NASDAQ	19142.71	-72.75
		-0.38%
TSX	26055.63	+83.70
		+0.32%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37529.49	+30.86
		+0.08%
HANG SENG	23681.48	+348.76
		+1.49%
SENSEX	81186.44	-872.98
		-1.06%
FTSE 100*	8781.12	+81.81
		+0.94%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.297	3.171
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.604	3.489
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4810	4.4770
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9634	4.9439

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7185	0.7160
US $	1.3917	1.3966

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5701	0.6369
US $	1.1282	0.8863

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3230.15	3191.05
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.69	62.49

Market Commentary:
Economy is a great source of revenue. -Seneca, c.4 BCE-65 AD.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the 10th day, climbing 0.3%, or 83.7 to 26,055.63 in Toronto.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.3%.
New Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 8.6%.
Today, 130 of 217 shares rose, while 82 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.9%
* The index advanced 16% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 21.4% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.1% in the past 5 days and rose 7.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 16.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.19t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 21.38% compared with 22.12% in the previous session and the average of 29.42% over the past month
Canadian investors took up where they had left off last Friday, returning from the holiday weekend by pushing the Toronto Stock Exchange higher for a tenth-straight session and to yet another record close on Tuesday.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 83.7 points tp 26,055.63.
The biggest gainers were Telecoms, up 0.45%, followed by Utilities, up 0.62%.
Information Technology and Health Care, down 1.41% and 2.08% respectively, were the biggest decliners.
According to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet Tuesday’s gains add to the largest one week point gain for the TSX since the week ending Sept. 13, 2024.
As of last Friday, the TSX was up for six consecutive weeks, and up 2,778.46 points or 12% over that period.
This is the largest six-week percentage gain since the week ending Dec. 11, 2020 and longest winning streak since the week ending Oct. 18, 2024, when the market rose for six straight weeks.
Also as of last Friday, the TSX was up 1,018.41 points, or 4.1%, over the prior nine trading days, the largest nine-day point and percentage gain since Friday, May 2, 2025.
It is also the longest winning streak since Jan. 24, 2025, when the market rose for nine straight trading days.
Month-to date the TSX was as of Friday up 4.55%, and year to date up 1243.99 points or 5%.
Tuesday’s gains on the resources heavy index came in spite of mixed commodity prices and as veteran economist David Rosenberg noted Canada’s CPI data earlier in the session “came in hotter than expected and put the BoC [Bank of Canada] into a bit of a bind” in terms of its decision on whether or not to cut its benchmark interest rate in June.
According to Rosenberg, the inflation numbers were a surprise given Canada’s “wobbly economy replete with employment loss and widening spare capacity in the labor market”.
He noted the headline non-seasonally adjusted number was minus 0.1% month over month versus the minus 0.2% consensus estimate and while the year over year headline inflation rate did recede to plus 1.7% from plus 2.3% in March, this came in “a tad” above the plus 1.6% market expectation.
The problem, Rosenberg said, was an acceleration in the core median inflation rate to a rise of 3.2% year-over-year from 2.9% in March and beating estimates for a 2.9% rise, while noting the core-trim barometer “hooked up” to 3.1% year-over-year from 2.8% in March (consensus at Rosenberg Research 2.8%).
On a sequential basis, both rose an outsized plus 0.4% month-over-month.
Rosenberg said while the removal of the consumer carbon tax allowed for a seasonally-adjusted fall of 0.2% month-over-month print on the headline, it was disappointing to see the core ex-food & energy index jump more than plus 0.3% month-over-month, which it has done in four of the past five months.
“This place the BoC in a bit of a box,” he added, while also noting the plus 0.4% month-over-month spike in the key CPIX measure (excludes the eight most volatile components as well as indirect taxes), which was the sharpest increase since April 2023.
For its part, National Bank noted while headline inflation at 1.7% versus the forecasted 1.6% might seem minor, the bank said it “masks a more significant trend: economists likely underestimated the deflationary impact of the carbon tax removal”.
National Bank said core inflation measures might concern the BoC, with both the median and trimmed CPI rising 0.4% month over month, pushing their annual rates above the central bank’s 3.0% upper target.
“Given signs of economic deterioration and sticky inflation in the data, some may fear we are entering a period of stagflation that would make the central bank less eager to ease policy further,” the bank wrote.
But despite these inflationary pressures, National Bank said the broader economic picture suggests in its view limited risk of sustained inflation.
“For instance,” it added, “few firms reported capacity constraints in Q1, implying that the recent rise in inflation is a temporary anomaly and there is minimal risk of persistent domestic inflation.
Additionally, the economy is already showing numerous signs of strain including private corporations slashing jobs.
With the economy already facing excess supply and as retaliatory tariff measures are relatively limited, this is not the moment for the Bank of Canada to fixate on inflation, a lagging indicator, but rather to focus on fostering conditions that sustain economic growth.”
National continues to anticipate a cut in the policy rate to 2.0% by the end of the year.”
RBC noted it had been stressing the risks were skewed to 0-2 rate cuts instead of more and that the bar for terminal pricing to move below 2.25%, which is its estimate, would continue to be high.
Its roadmap said that if CPI saw a “+0.3% m/m or higher on monthly core and it definitely leans to a hold”.
Indeed, RBC said today, with core measures averaging a “chunky” 0.37% monthly gain in April, the BoC will have a tough time justifying a cut in June after pausing in April.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower as the price remains rangebound amid a weakening global economy and rising supply, though stalled talks between Iran and the United States are easing fears of yet more new barrels coming to market.
WTI oil for June delivery closed down $0.13 to settle at US$62.56 per barrel, while July Brent crude was last seen down $0.10 to US$65.44.
But gold traded higher for a second day late afternoon on Tuesday as the dollar weakens following last week’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody’s Ratings.
Gold for June delivery was last seen up $63.10 to US$3,296.60 per ounce, remaining under the April 21 record of US$3,425.30 per ounce.

Index Points
Materials | 115.2105| 3.4| 44/5
Consumer Staples | 13.6853| 1.4| 10/0
Industrials | 9.8482| 0.3| 15/13
Utilities | 6.2272| 0.6| 11/3
Energy | 2.4860| 0.1| 19/22
Communication Services | 2.3419| 0.4| 4/0
Consumer Discretionary | 1.5379| 0.2| 4/6
Financials | 0.1653| 0.0| 13/10
Health Care | -0.8498| -1.3| 1/3
Real Estate | -3.9572| -0.8| 5/14
Information Technology | -62.9955| -2.4| 4/6
Wheaton Precious Ltd | 28.0100| 5.3| 9.1| 39.4
Metals | 18.0500| 5.2| -16.1| 42.7
Barrick Mining | 12.8400| 4.3| -34.1| 16.6
Suncor | -7.2470| -1.7| 8.7| -4.4
Brookfield Corp | -14.3900| -1.7| 27.3| -0.6
Shopify | -58.6700| -4.4| -12.6| -3.2
USA
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s rally took a breather on Tuesday, with stocks falling as traders awaited fresh catalysts after a six-day run that put the S&P 500 up almost 20% from its April lows.
The US equity benchmark lost steam following an $8.6 trillion surge to around “overbought” levels.
A slide in its most-influential group – big tech – weighed on trading, with Alphabet Inc. down 1.5% amid the company’s developer conference.
Tesla Inc. was the only megacap gaining as Elon Musk said he’s committed to leading the electric-vehicle giant five years from now.
Long-term Treasury yields climbed as fractious US budget negotiations kept focus on the growth in deficit spending.
President Donald Trump is growing frustrated with demands to significantly boost the cap on the state and local tax deduction, according to a senior administration official, signaling a deadlock as Republicans aim to quickly pass a giant tax-cut bill.
Despite the pullback in stocks, May is shaping up as surprisingly strong for the S&P 500.
Markets have calmed after months of turmoil as hopes grow that a tariff blitz unleashed by Trump will be less severe than expected.
Still, investors are scouring charts for clues on whether the advance can persist, with the gauge near levels that some technicians view as a sign of overheating.
“There is little question that the momentum in the equity market is quite strong.
That said, the market is getting overbought near-term, so it could see a breather at any time,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“However, unless that breather turns out to be a serious reversal, a retest of those all-time highs soon is very possible.”
The S&P 500 fell 0.4%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.48%.
A dollar gauge slipped 0.2%.
Risks such as tariff uncertainty, softening economic data and fiscal headwinds challenge the sustainability of the recent equity rebound, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists including Tony SK Lee wrote in a note.
“We expect volatility ahead as investors contend with uncertainty on several fronts,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Further progress seems necessary for trade deals to last.
Trump’s tax cuts could add pressure to the bond market.
The Federal Reserve is likely to resist rate cuts in the near term while economic headwinds mount.” Fed Reserve Bank of St.
Louis President Alberto Musalem said tariffs will likely weigh on the US economy and weaken the labor market.
Musalem said the Fed can deliver a “balanced response” to both inflation and employment as long as Americans’ outlook on future prices remains anchored at the central bank’s 2% target.
The bond-market revolt against Washington’s fiscal largess is far from over, according to Garda Capital Partners’ Tim Magnusson, who says a rapid increase in yields is likely the only thing that will motivate Congress to rein in the deficit.
“The bond market is going to have the final say on what happens fiscally,” Magnusson said in an interview at the firm’s New York office.
Lawmakers “are going to get tested more — 5% is not the final line in the sand.”
Meantime, currency options traders are now more pessimistic than they’ve ever been about the dollar’s path over the next year, according to one commonly-cited measure of investor sentiment.
One-year risk reversals — a gauge of how expensive it is to buy versus sell a currency in the options market — fell to minus 28 basis points in favor of puts over calls for the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.
That mark is the most negative level on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2011, surpassing even a level briefly hit at the outset of pandemic-driven market gyrations five years ago.

Corporate Highlights:
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google will offer “AI mode” in search to all US users, part of an effort to bring products to market faster and keep pace with new rivals in the artificial intelligence age.
* Apple Inc. is preparing to allow third-party developers to write software using its artificial intelligence models, aiming to spur the creation of new applications and make its devices more enticing.
* Home Depot Inc. maintained its guidance for the fiscal year as US sales ticked up, a sign that consumer spending has held up despite economic turbulence.
* Nippon Steel Corp.’s $14.1 billion bid for United States Steel Corp. is more important than ever as tariffs and rising Chinese exports reshape the global market for the metal, according to a top executive at the Japanese firm.
* US shale oil output hasn’t peaked and can expand, but not if prices are near $50 a barrel, according to the chief executive officer of oil giant ConocoPhillips.
* Venezuela released an American citizen on the same day the US was set to give Chevron Corp. another 60-day waiver to operate in the country, part of a push by President Nicolas Maduro’s government and some voices in the Trump administration to improve ties.
* Victoria’s Secret & Co. announced a shareholder rights plan after an investor began acquiring a substantial amount of stock in the lingerie retailer.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1279
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3387
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 144.56 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.3% to $106,876.97
* Ether fell 0.9% to $2,497.06
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.61%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.70%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $62.56 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2% to $3,293.99 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,
Carolann
Doing your best at this moment  puts you in the best place for the next moment. -Oprah Winfrey, b. 1954.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!
Carolann is away from the office for Sohn Investment Conference in New York, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

May 16, 1770: Marie Antoinette, age 14, married the future King Louis XVI of France, who was 15. Go to article
May 16, 1817: Mississippi River steamboat service begins
May 16, 1881: World’s first electric tram enters service in Lichterfelde near Berlin

International Day of the Boy Child. Read more.

Scientists use AI to encrypt secret messages that are invisible to cybersecurity systems
Scientists say that hiding secret messages using AI chatbots could lead to a world of iron-clad encryption.

World’s oldest star chart may be 2,300 years old and from China — but not everyone agrees
Is the Star Manual of Master Shi the oldest known astronomical catalog? Experts are divided.

NASA spacecraft snaps eerie image of eclipsed sun with an extra moon overhead. What’s going on?
NASA’s PUNCH mission, a tiny constellation of four satellites, captured a photo of the moon drifting across the sky through a haze of sunlight. The mission is still undergoing commissioning and is expected to start science operations June 9.

Physicists may be on their way to a ‘theory of everything’ after reenvisioning Einstein’s most famous theory
A new physics paper takes a step toward creating a long-sought “theory of everything” by uniting gravity with the quantum world. However, the new theory remains far from being proven observationally

Dinosaur age tsunami revealed from tiny chunks of Japanese amber, study finds
Amber deposits in Japan show unique deformations that suggest trees were swept out to sea during a tsunami about 115 million years ago, giving paleontologists a new way to identify past tsunamis.

The sun just spat out the strongest solar flares of 2025 — and more could be headed toward Earth
The sun has released several powerful M- and X-class solar flares over the past few days, resulting in radio blackouts around the world.

Humans reached southern South America by 14,500 years ago, genomes from 139 Indigenous groups reveal
A large-scale genome study shows that Indigenous peoples in the Americas split off several times, resulting in loss of important genetic diversity.

‘Very rare’ African ebony figurines found in 1,500-year-old Christian burials in Israeli desert
Three 1,500-year-old burials in the Negev desert have pendants of bone and ebony that may depict the deceased individuals’ ancestors.

Living lunch box? Iceland orcas are unexpectedly swimming with baby pilot whales, but it’s unclear why.
Newborn pilot whales have been spotted mysteriously swimming among pods of orcas. Scientists are trying to puzzle out how the pilot whale calves got there and what happened to them.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

All aboard … cygnets take the dry option and hitch a lift on their mother’s back at Walcot Pool, Shropshire, UK
Photograph: Andrew Fusek-Peters/SWNS
Alberobello, Italy
A cyclist pedals among typical trulli, a traditional dry-stone hut in the region of Puglia, before the start of the fourth stage of the Giro d’Italia cycling race, from Alberobello to Lecce. Casper van Uden claimed his maiden grand tour victory in a sprint finish to top an all-Dutch podium in Lecce
Photograph: Marco Alpozzi/AP

​​​​​​​A water vole in Britain. Water vole populations look to be bouncing back; overall, numbers have declined but in some regions of the UK there are signs of recovery, thanks to habitat restoration and tighter control of its main predator, the American mink
Photograph: Ian West/PA
Market Closes for May 16^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42654.74	+331.99
		+0.78%
S&P 500	5958.38	+41.45
		+0.70%
NASDAQ	19211.10	+98.78
		+0.52%
TSX	25971.93	+74.45
		+0.29%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37753.72	-1.79
		—
HANG SENG	23345.05	-108.11
		-0.46%
SENSEX	82330.59	-200.15
		-0.24%
FTSE 100*	8684.56	+50.81
		+0.59%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.171	3.147
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.489	3.478
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4770	4.4315
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9439	4.8867

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7160	0.7166
US $	1.3966	1.3954

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5592	0.6413
US $	1.1163	0.8957

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3191.05	3191.95
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.49	61.62

Market Commentary:
“In the short term, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”– Warren Buffett
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a second-straight record high on Friday while rising for a ninth-straight session as investors continue to add risk.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 74.45 points to 25,971.93, gaining just more than 1,000 points over its winning streak.
Rising sectors were led by Health Care, up 3.19%, followed by Energy, up 0.41%.
Base Metals, down 1.19%, was the biggest decliner.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3%, with 10 of 11 sectors higher, led by health care stocks.
As of market close, 145 of 217 stocks rose, while 70 fell.
MEG Energy Corp. led the advances, rising 19%, while South Bow Corp. decreased 4.1%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 0.3% to 25,972
* 10 of 11 sectors rose
** Health care gained, up 2%
** Materials declined, down 0.3%
* Crude oil rose 1.3% to $62/bbl
* Natgas fell 1.3% to $3.32/mmbtu
* Gold fell 0.8% to $3,202/oz
* Silver fell 1% to $32/oz
Advancers:
* MEG Energy Corp. (MEG CN) +19%: MEG Soars as Board Considers Strathcona Bid, Engages BMO (1)
* Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY CN) +9.7%: Global X Marijuana Life Rises 9.4% This Week
* Athabasca Oil Corp. (ATH CN) +9%
* AtkinsRealis Group Inc. (ATRL CN) +4.6%: AtkinsRealis RSI Overbought; Up 11%, Most in About Six Months
* Canadian Tire Corp. (CTC/A CN) +3.3%: Canadian Tire to Buy Hudson’s Bay Company Brand Assets for C$30M
Decliners:
* South Bow Corp. (SOBO CN) -4.1%: South Bow’s Keystone Pipeline Transporting 585k B/D After Spill
* Ero Copper Corp. (ERO CN) -3.8%
* Capstone Copper Corp. (CS CN) -3.4%
* Denison Mines Corp. (DML CN) -3.3%
* Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN CN) -3.1%
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks got hit in late hours and bond yields climbed after the US credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s amid concerns about the increase in government debt that threatens America’s status as the world’s safe haven.
A $606 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 dropped after the close of regular trading.
That followed a rally that put the US equity benchmark on the brink of a bull market on hopes that Donald Trump’s tariff war is cooling.
Treasury futures slid to session lows after the statement, with the market notching its third straight week of losses — the longest slide this year.
Moody’s lowered the US credit score to Aa1 from Aaa on Friday, joining Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings in grading the world’s biggest economy below the top, triple-A position.
The one-notch cut comes more than a year after Moody’s changed its outlook on the US rating to negative.
The credit assessor now has a stable outlook.
“Being asked why Moody’s would downgrade the US now,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“Moody’s is trying to send a message to Congress to get their act together.”
A key House committee on Friday failed to advance House Republicans’ massive tax-and-spending bill after hard-line conservatives bucked President Trump and blocked the bill over cost concerns.
Negotiations will continue through the weekend, with the committee planning to meet again late Sunday night.
US deficits are already large by any measure today.
The US deficit has been in excess of 6% of gross domestic product for the past two years an unusually high burden outside of economic recessions or world wars.
The ratio was 6.4% for fiscal 2024, after 6.2% in 2023.
Equities climbed in regular hours Friday as the Financial Times reported the US and the European Union broke an impasse to enable tariff talks, fueling the risk-on tone that had been sparked by a trade truce with China.
Traders were able to look past data showing US consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell and inflation expectations climbed to multi-decade highs.
Since the US-China truce, banks across Wall Street have been watering down calls for a recession.
The optimism around trade deals has propelled American stocks ahead of most global equity benchmarks this week.
The shift came after a period in which money managers grew skeptical about the US equity market and started to pull away from growth stocks and rotate into defensive names, due to escalating concerns from trade wars to economic growth and geopolitical tensions.
In the first three months of the year, hedge funds boosted positions in healthcare stocks while reducing exposure in the technology sector.
The furious comeback in US equities from the depths of last month’s rout is poised to come to a halt, according to Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett.
The chief investment officer of the bank’s wealth management division says decelerating revenue growth from the Magnificent Seven mega cap companies and waning earnings momentum more broadly will limit further market upside after a double- digit recovery in the S&P 500 from April’s lows.
“I think we’re going to stall out here,” Shalett said Friday in an interview with Bloomberg Surveillance.
“It’s hard to justify the numbers.”
One thing is clear as the first-quarter earnings season draws to a close: The uncertain outlook for the global economy is superseding better-than-feared results even as stocks rally on signs of easing trade tensions.
In the US, a measure that reflects the proportion of S&P 500 members that raised their earnings outlook compared to those that held or reduced, the so-called profit guidance momentum, fell to the lowest level since at least 2010, according to an analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence’s equity strategists Gina Martin Adams and Wendy Soong.
That is in spite of S&P 500 companies delivering double the profit growth that was expected in the first quarter, according to BI.
“There is little question that the trade agreement between the US and China is a bullish development as it lowers the odds of a recession,” said Matt Maley at Miller tabak.
“Now, we have to figure out just how much this will actually improve the outlook enough to justify today’s level in the stock market and/or a further rally over the coming months.”

Corporate Highlights:
* The US Justice Department is considering an agreement that would allow Boeing Co. to avoid a criminal charge for two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jets, according to lawyers representing family members of the victims.
* CoreWeave Inc. surged 22% to a record high after Nvidia Corp. reported a larger-than-anticipated stake in the cloud-computing provider.
* Applied Materials Inc. tumbled after giving a lackluster forecast for the current period, highlighting the potential cost of the US trade dispute with China.
* Charter Communications Inc. has agreed to combine with closely held Cox Communications in a cash-and-stock deal that would unite two of the biggest US cable providers.
* Coinbase Global Inc.’s rally has been unconquerable this week, as even a one-two punch of negative headlines did little to stop the crypto exchange operator’s climb ahead of its inclusion in the S&P 500.
* Binance and Kraken are among major crypto exchanges that have been targeted by the same type of social-engineering hack that was recently disclosed by Coinbase Global Inc., according to people familiar with the situation.
* Billionaire Michael Novogratz said Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. is talking with the US Securities and Exchange Commission about tokenizing its own stock as well as other equities using its digital-asset platform.
* Apple Inc. and Epic Games Inc. sparred over whether the iPhone maker was obstructing access to the hit game Fortnite, the latest tussle in a long-running feud over Apple’s control of game distribution revenue.
* The Federal Trade Commission wrapped up its case Thursday for breaking up Meta Platforms Inc. as an illegal social-media monopoly, with the company now set to lay out its defense in the ongoing antitrust trial.
* OpenAI is rolling out a new artificial intelligence agent for ChatGPT users that’s designed to help streamline software development as the company pushes into a crowded market of startups and large tech firms offering AI tools for coders.
* Novo Nordisk A/S is replacing Chief Executive Officer Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen as the drugmaker wrestles with increased competition for its Wegovy obesity shots that transformed the weight-loss industry and made the Danish company the star of corporate Europe.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1150
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3276
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 145.94 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $104,015.59
* Ether rose 2.1% to $2,591.41
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.48%.
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.59%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $62.35 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.4% to $3,193.18 an ounce

Have a wonderful long weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
“I want to live my life, not record it.”– Jacqueline Lee Kennedy Onassis “Jackie”

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve!
Carolann is away from the office for Sohn Investment Conference in New York, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

May 15, 1618: German astronomer Johannes Kepler discovers the third of his three planetary laws, the “harmonic law”
May 15, 1672: 1st copyright law enacted by Massachusetts
May 15, 1817: First private mental health hospital opens in the US, Asylum for the Relief of Persons Deprived of the Use of Their Reason (now Friends Hospital) in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
May 15, 1869: National Woman Suffrage Association forms in New York, founded by Susan B. Anthony and Elizabeth Cady Stanton
May 15: 1988: The Soviet Union began withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan. Go to article

National Chocolate Chip Day. Read more

Gigantic ‘mud waves’ buried deep beneath the ocean floor reveal dramatic formation of Atlantic when Africa and South America finally split
Enormous “mud waves” buried under the Atlantic seabed formed 117 million years ago as the Atlantic Ocean opened up. The discovery of buried “mud waves” off the coast of western Africa reveals that the Atlantic Ocean was born at least 4 million years earlier than scientists previously thought.

9 best things to see in the night sky with binoculars: May to July 2025
Explore the wonders of the Northern Hemisphere’s night sky with our guide to the best celestial sights you can observe with binoculars between May and July. If you want to take your stargazing to the next level, a pair of binoculars is the way to go. With a little magnification, it’s possible to access another level of the night sky, revealing open clusters of stars, the Milky Way and detail on the surface of the moon.

James Webb telescope reveals ‘impossible’ auroras on Jupiter that have astronomers scratching their heads
Scientists looked at Jupiter’s massive auroras using the James Webb and Hubble Space Telescopes — and found a mystery they can’t fully explain.

‘Quite enigmatic’: Rare stone carving of Assyrian king surrounded by gods discovered in Iraq
A massive stone carving featuring an Assyrian ruler and several deities has been found in Iraq.
Archaeologists who are excavating the ancient city of Nineveh in Iraq have discovered a rare stone carving depicting the last ruler of the Assyrian Empire flanked by important gods. The slab was made in the seventh century B.C. but was mysteriously broken and buried under the palace throne room several centuries later.

Immune genes linked to bigger brains and longer lifespans in mammals — including humans
The genomes of long-living, big-brained mammal species reveal that they carry more copies of immunity genes. Experts speculate that these genes may affect longevity.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Perito Moreno glacier, Argentina
Tourists admire the Perito Moreno glacier, near the city of El Calafate in the Patagonian province of Santa Cruz
Photograph: Bernat Parera/Reuters

Doha, Qatar
The Qatari air force escorts a plane transporting the US president, Donald Trump, as it prepares to land
Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Frankfurt, Germany
A stork guards her chicks in her nest on a pylon
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP
Market Closes for May 15^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42322.75	+271.69
		+0.65%
S&P 500	5916.93	+24.35
		+0.41%
NASDAQ	19112.32	-34.49
		-0.18%
TSX	25897.48	+205.03
		+0.80%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37755.51	-372.62
		-0.98%
HANG SENG	23453.16	-187.49
		-0.79%
SENSEX	82530.74	+1200.18
		+1.48%
FTSE 100*	8633.75	+48.74
		+0.57%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.147	3.259
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.478	3.568
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4315	4.5363
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8867	4.9696

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7166	0.7155
US $	1.3954	1.3976

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5617	0.6403
US $	1.1191	0.8935

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3191.95	3227.95
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.62	63.15

Market Commentary:
“The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.”— Benjamin Graham
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a record high on Thursday, rising for an eighth-straight session as markets continue to rally after China and the United States on backed off their tariff battle on the weekend.
Even with commodity prices mixed, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed 203.44 points to 25,895.89, topping the prior record close of 25,808.25 set on Jan. 30.
Among sectors, Industrials, up 1.78%, and Telecoms, up 1.33%, posted the biggest gains, with Energy and Base Metals down 1.34% and 0.83% respectively.
The Canadian market surpassing its prior peak provides a psychological milestone for traders and is “a sign of resilience” according to Colin Cieszynski, portfolio manager and chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management.
“The market has taken everything that could be thrown at it and it’s still showing strength, and it still has breadth and that’s a really good thing,” he added.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.8%, with nine of 11 sectors higher, led by industrials stocks.
As of market close, 139 of 217 stocks fell, while 76 rose.
Baytex Energy Corp. led the declines, falling 8.3%, while AtkinsRealis Group Inc. increased 11%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 0.8% to 25,897
* Nine of 11 sectors rose
** Industrials gained, up 1.8%
** Energy declined, down 0.6%
* Crude oil fell 2.2% to $62/bbl
* Natgas fell 4% to $3.35/mmbtu
* Gold rose 1.6% to $3,239/oz
* Silver rose 0.8% to $32/oz
Advancers:
* AtkinsRealis Group Inc. (ATRL CN) +11%: AtkinsRealis Boosts Nuclear Revenue Outlook, Shares Climb (1)
* MDA Space Ltd. (MDA CN) +7.7%
* Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. (SES CN) +6.9%
* SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM CN) +6.6%
* Stantec Inc. (STN CN) +5.4%: Stantec 1Q Net Revenue Matches Estimates
Decliners:
* Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE CN) -8.3%
* Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET CN) -4.3%
* Capstone Copper Corp. (CS CN) -4.1%
* Cargojet Inc. (CJT CN) -3.9%
* Bird Construction Inc. (BDT CN) -3.7%: Bird Construction Drops as Firm Expects Most Growth in 2H (1)
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks higher as bond yields sank after the latest economic data spurred speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year to prevent a recession.
The S&P 500 rose for a fourth straight day.
Despite the gain, caution lurked in the background after a furious rally spurred worries about an overheated market, with the pendulum swinging in favor of defensive dividend-payers that had underperformed in the past month.
Meta Platforms Inc. paced losses in big tech on a news report it was delaying the rollout of a flagship AI model.
In late hours, Applied Materials Inc. gave a tepid forecast.
Treasuries climbed across the curve.
Longer-dated bonds were earlier whipsawed by large trades that briefly pushed the 30-year yield to nearly 5%.
The dollar dropped against most major currencies.
Prices paid to US producers unexpectedly declined by the most in five years suggesting companies are absorbing some of the hit from higher tariffs.
Growth in retail sales decelerated notably.
Factory production declined for the first time in six months while New York state manufacturing contracted again.
And confidence among homebuilders slumped.
“If you are in the stagflation camp, these data aren’t confirming your thesis,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.
“While growth is slowing, disinflation remains intact.”
The S&P 500 rose 0.4%.
The Nasdaq 100 was little changed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.65%.
An index of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps fell 1.1%.
Canada’s stock benchmark hit a record with an eight-day rally.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries tumbled 10 basis points to 4.43%.
A dollar gauge lost 0.2%.
Oil slumped as Donald Trump said the US and Iran are getting closer to a deal regarding Tehran’s nuclear program.
Stocks are now trading like last month’s rout never happened.
The S&P 500 is about 4% away from an all-time high, while the Nasdaq 100 swung from a bear market back into a bull market.
The advance is building as economic tensions between the US and China ease and the White House appears to be softening its approach to trade negotiations.
“I don’t want to get too excited, but we may actually be able to focus on company fundamentals for a while this summer,” said Lamar Villere, portfolio Manager at Villere & Co.
“If you’d told me a month ago that stocks would be up year-to-date when my kids finished their exams, I’d have called you a liar.”
Still, there’s little clarity over how the existing levies might impact the US economy or the trajectory the global trade war will take in coming months.
Fed Governor Michael Barr said the economy is on solid ground, but warned tariff-related supply-chain disruptions could lead to lower growth and higher inflation.
Recession remains a possibility as tariff fallout continues to buffet global economies, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon.
“Hopefully we’ll avoid it, but I wouldn’t take it off the table at this point,” Dimon said in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday at JPMorgan’s annual Global Markets Conference in Paris.
“If there is a recession, I don’t know how big it would be or how long it would last.”
Wells Fargo Investment Institute sees economic growth, clarity around Trump’s tariffs and continued earnings growth driving further stock-market gains through the rest of this year and next.
Strategists at the firm published a new S&P 500 forecast for 2026, expecting the US equity benchmark to climb to between 6,400 and 6,600 by year’s end.
WFII’s new 2025 year-end target is in a range of 5,900 to 6,100.
The gauge closed at 5,916.93 Thursday.
“Our constructive equity outlook is not an all clear for the riskiest areas of the markets,” the team wrote, emphasizing preference from US large- and mid-cap companies.
Equity gains will likely get harder from these elevated levels, so the relatively low cost of volatility hedges on offer right now hands investors an opportunity to build a defense against summer volatility.
“While we continue to expect a range of trade agreements to be reached to sustain the tariff rate at roughly the level during the pause period, ongoing uncertainty could trigger further bouts of market volatility,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Meantime, tax-bill discussions in Congress show the US “appears unwilling” to rein in its fiscal deficit, while foreigners are less inclined to finance it, creating a “major problem” for the dollar and the bond market, said George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank’s global head of currency strategy.
“Running a wider fiscal deficit requires foreigners to buy an ever-expanding number of US Treasuries and an ongoing rise of America’s foreign liabilities,” he wrote.
“This we believe is no longer sustainable.”
The dollar’s descent is elevating the price of hedging currency trades around the world, breaking up a long-standing market conviction that costs tend to come down when the greenback weakens.
The correlation between the dollar and a widely watched gauge of volatility in Group-of-10 currencies fell to the lowest level in seven years this week.
For most of the past 15 years that correlation was positive.

Corporate Highlights:
* Walmart Inc. delivered another quarter of solid sales and earnings growth but cautioned that tariffs and increasing economic turbulence means even the world’s largest retailer expects to raise prices.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. plummeted following a report that the insurer was under criminal investigation for possible Medicare fraud, adding to an already tumultuous week.
* Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. reached a $2.4 billion deal to acquire Foot Locker Inc., combining two retailers troubled by President Trump’s tariff wars.
* Trump said he’s asked Apple Inc.’s Tim Cook to stop building plants in India to make devices for the US, pushing the iPhone maker to add domestic production as it pivots away from China.
* CVS Health Corp. is trying to buy stores and patient data from Rite Aid Corp., the beleaguered pharmacy chain that is going out of business after filing for bankruptcy a second time earlier this month.
* CoreWeave Inc. has secured a deal worth as much as $4 billion to provide additional cloud computing capacity to artificial intelligence leader OpenAI, expanding a tie-up between the two firms.
* Deere & Co.’s earnings beat the highest of analyst estimates, even as the world’s largest farm machinery maker trimmed its profit outlook for the year.
* Hackers had near-constant access to some of Coinbase Global Inc.’s most-valuable customer data since January, according to a person familiar with the incident who asked not to be named discussing company matters.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.65%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1184
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3305
* The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 145.62 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $103,183.53
* Ether fell 2.7% to $2,530.39
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 10 basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 2.62%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.66%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.1% to $61.80 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.7% to $3,231.82 an ounce

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
” It is not certain that everything is uncertain.”– Blaise Pascal

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for Sohn Investment Conference in New York, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

May 14: 1853 Land surveyor, newspaper publisher and inventor Gail Borden patents his process for condensed milk
May 14: 1897 Oldest continuously operating movie theater in the world, the State Theatre first opens in Washington, Iowa (Guinness World Records)
May 14: 1910 Canada authorizes issuing of silver dollar coins
May 14:1932 “We Want Beer!” parade in NY
May 14: 1998 The TV series “Seinfeld” aired its final episode. Go to article

The Milky Way will be visible across the US this month. Here’s how to get the best views.
For those in midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the arc of our galaxy becomes easier to see in May. Here’s when and where to look.

Scientists think a hidden source of clean energy could power Earth for 170,000 years — and they’ve figured out the ‘recipe’ to find it
Researchers have compiled a list of “ingredients” that could help resource exploration companies locate huge reservoirs of clean hydrogen, a critical element in the transition away from fossil fuels.

4,000-year-old stone-lined burial discovered in Morocco
Archaeologists working in the Tangier Peninsula, in northwest Morocco, have discovered ancient cemeteries, rock art and standing stones.

Your fingers ‘prune’ the exact same way each time, study suggests
The wrinkled, raisin-like patterns you get on your fingers after a long bath form the same patterns every time, new research suggests.

Lights on Mars! NASA rover photographs visible auroras on Red Planet for the first time
NASA’s Perseverance rover recently captured a photo of green auroras shining in the Martian sky for the first time. The alien light show, previously assumed to be impossible, could be visible to future astronauts.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Alberobello, Italy
The peloton rolls out of town as cyclists compete in the Giro d’Italia race
Photograph: Zac Williams/SWpix.com/Shutterstock

Damascus, Syria
Crowds of people celebrate the decision by the US president, Donald Trump, to lift sanctions on the country
Photograph: Amadeusz Mikolaj Swierk/Anadolu/Getty Images
Çanakkale, Turkey
A black-winged stilt on Kavak Delta, a natural wetland for migratory birds
Photograph: Alper Tuydes/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 14^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42051.06	-89.37
		-0.21%
S&P 500	5892.58	+6.03
		+0.10%
NASDAQ	19146.81	+136.73
		+0.72%
TSX	25692.45	+75.59
		+0.30%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38128.13	-55.13
		-0.14%
HANG SENG	23640.65	+532.38
		+2.30%
SENSEX	81330.56	+182.34
		+0.22%
FTSE 100*	8585.01	-17.91
		-0.21%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.259	3.208
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.568	3.509
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5363	4.4709
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9696	4.9050

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7155	0.7153
US $	1.3976	1.3980

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5629	0.6398
US $	1.1181	0.8943

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3227.95	3324.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.15	61.02

Market Commentary:
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”— Warren Buffett
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange rose for a seventh-straight session on Wednesday, with investors perhaps enthused by news of a personal tax cut to come mid-year as part of a drive by the new federal government to help Canadians come out of what has been a difficult few economic months amid U.S. trade wars.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 75.59 points to close out Wednesday at 25,692.45.
Among sectors, Telecoms and Energy were the biggest decliners, down 1.03% and 0.77%, respectively, followed by Utilities, down 0.25%.
Industrials and Information Technology were both higher, up 1.46% and 1.33%, respectively.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3%, with four of 11 sectors higher, led by information technology stocks.
As of market close, 122 of 217 stocks rose, while 92 fell.
Finning International Inc. led the advances, rising 6.6%, while Aya Gold & Silver Inc. decreased 7.3%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 0.3% to 25,692
* Four of 11 sectors rose
** Information technology gained, up 2.2%
** Materials declined, down 1.8%
* Crude oil fell 1.4% to $63/bbl
* Natgas fell 5.3% to $3.46/mmbtu
* Gold fell 2% to $3,184/oz
* Silver fell 2.4% to $32/oz
Advancers:
* Finning International Inc. (FTT CN) +6.6%: Finning International Volume Jumps to More Than Five Times
* Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP CN) +3.8%: Artisan Partners Buys Baker Hughes, Boosts Icon: 13F
* Shopify Inc. (SHOP CN) +3.8%: Shopify Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
* Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD CN) +3.6%: Boyd Group Services 1Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
* Celestica Inc. (CLS CN) +3.6%: Celestica Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
Decliners:
* Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA CN) -7.3%: Aya Gold & Silver Rated New Buy at Beacon Securities; PT C$20
* Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE CN) -5.6%
* CAE Inc. (CAE CN) -5%: CAE Falls on Weaker 2026 Guide Amid Travel Woes: Street Wrap
* Onex Corp. (ONEX CN) -5%
* Lundin Gold Inc. (LUG CN) -4.5%: Lundin Gold Raised to Buy at Veritas Investment Research Co
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s epic rebound from April’s meltdown is showing signs of exhaustion on speculation stocks have run too fast amid risks stemming from a trade war to an economic slowdown and sticky inflation.
After a 22% jump from last month’s intraday lows, the S&P 500 edged up just 0.1%.
Most sectors fell, but big tech climbed.
Boeing Co. gained on its largest-ever deal, with Qatar Airways placing an order for long-range jets during a visit to Doha by Donald Trump.
The dollar erased losses as Bloomberg News reported the US is not working to include currency policy pledges in trade accords.
Bond yields rose as Federal Reserve rate-cut bets receded.
A sharp rebound in risk assets — fueled by progress in trade talks and economic resilience — followed a month in which the consensus was to brace for the worst.
The US-China truce, a UK pact and high-profile Gulf deals have reassured investors, yet lurking in the background is the worry that stocks get so extended that they’re vulnerable to surprises.
“As trade tensions ease, investors are pivoting back to fundamentals, but they may not like what they see,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“The market has raced from oversold to overbought in record time.
That limits near-term upside unless we see a clear re-acceleration in growth.”
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, a breather in the equity rally would be “quite normal and healthy.”
The S&P 500’s 14-day Relative Strength Index is at the highest since December.
Meantime, the CNN Fear/Greed gauge approached “extreme greed” levels.
“Stocks are getting a little short-term stretched, but we’d view modest pullbacks that confirm support as buying opportunities, especially among sectors with relative strength,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.6%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.2%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps climbed 1.7%.
In late hours, Cisco Systems Inc. gave a bullish forecast while Coreweave Inc. said artificial-intelligence cloud demand is accelerating.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.54%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.
Stocks remain vulnerable to further declines if deteriorating economic data reignite recession worries, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by Peter Oppenheimer.
The recent correction was rapid and consistent with an “event-driven bear market,” they wote.
“The average profile of these bear markets remains flat at best for some time after the initial fall,” the Goldman strategists said.
“If this typical pattern is followed, the near-term upside is likely to be limited.”
To Rick Gardner at RGA Investments, the stock-market rally has legs.
“The trade negotiation with China was seemingly the toughest one on the docket, and the idea that there has been this much progress on the negotiations over such a short period of time, suggests that a resolution may be on the horizon,” he said.
Gardner says that what’s been remarkable about the rebound from April lows is the leadership of the tech sector — which was not leading the market in the early months of 2025 before the tariff situation escalated.
“We anticipate tech may continue to lead this market, as the sector stands to benefit from easing trade tensions and as investors once again resume their excitement over the promise of artificial intelligence,” he noted.
“Even if we see a continued economic slowdown, the stock market may have already priced that in during the April selloff.”
Two of Wall Street’s major trading desks are making the same bold call on US stocks as trade tensions ease: Pile into this year’s biggest losers for quick, short-term profits.
Heads of equity trading at Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. say they’re particularly bullish over the next few weeks on small caps, technology hardware and homebuilders, which have each lagged the broader S&P 500 during the most recent leg up.
In the current environment, Stuart Kaiser, who runs Citi’s desk as head of US equity trading strategy, also likes shares of companies with weaker finances, he said.
With the broader US stock indexes already erasing their declines of the year, the firms now say the traders and other speculative buyers who missed out will be on the hunt for pockets of opportunity to play catch-up before the next bout of tariff-induced turbulence strikes again.
“Despite this momentum, the full extent of tariff and earnings-related hits is still unknown,” said Daniel Skelly at Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
“Investors may want to lean toward buying dips rather than chasing rallies, focusing on quality stocks with achievable earnings estimates.”
“Our neutral view is not a ‘negative’ stance,” said David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We believe the bull market is intact and stocks will likely rise further over the next year.
But the economy will have to adjust to higher tariffs, and this could lead to a period of weaker economic data, which could be a modest headwind for stocks.”
Without any relevant economic data to digest, traders awaited a raft of reports scheduled for Thursday while sifting through the latest Fedspeak.
Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said that it’s important for central bankers not to respond to day-to-day volatility in equities and economic policy pronouncements, noting that economic data remain steady for now.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said tariffs and related uncertainty could slow growth and boost inflation this year, but monetary policy is well positioned to respond as needed.
“Fed vice chair Jefferson’s speech today leans a little dovish after a run of more hawkish commentary from Fed officials, signaling that the Fed leadership is (sensibly) wary of calling the all-clear on downside risk even after US-China de-escalation,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
TD Securities joined several other Wall Street banks in predicting the Fed will cut rates later than previously anticipated, and swap contracts ceased fully pricing in two quarter-point moves by year-end. 

Corporate Highlights:

* Super Micro Computer Inc. extended this week’s surge on a multi-year partnership agreement with Saudi Arabian data-center firm DataVolt.
* Oil giant Saudi Aramco signed agreements with major US companies potentially totaling about $90 billion.
* EToro Group Ltd. rose 29% in its first session as a public company, after the trading and investment platform and some of its backers raised nearly $620 million in an upsized IPO.
* Apple Inc. is developing a feature for its Vision Pro headset that lets users scroll through software with their eyes, aiming to enhance the device with a novel interface.
* Microsoft Corp.’s recently announced job cuts fell hardest on the people who build the company’s products, showing that even software developers are at risk in the age of artificial intelligence.
* Coinbase Global Inc. Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong said the largest US crypto exchange continues to look at mergers and acquisitions, following its $2.9 billion agreement to buy the derivatives exchange Deribit earlier this month.
* Tyson Foods Inc. is looking to run its chicken plants harder as demand is set to remain strong into 2026.
* JBS SA, the world’s largest meat supplier, faces deepening losses at its US beef business, even as chicken continues to drive profits.
* Cboe Global Markets Inc. declined after Morgan Stanley double downgraded the stock, recommending lower defensives exposure on the back of greater than expected tariff de-escalation between China and the US.
* Nucor Corp. shut down production at some of its facilities fter detecting an unauthorized intrusion into its computer systems.
* Saudi-backed electric-vehicle maker Lucid Group Inc. said the kingdom should consider tariffs on foreign cars to boost domestic auto manufacturing and cut reliance on imports.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1168
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3260
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 146.82 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $103,306.54
* Ether fell 3.2% to $2,603.36
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.54%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.71%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.3% to $62.83 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 2.1% to $3,180.73 an ounce

–With assistance from Margaryta Kirakosian, Sujata Rao and Phil Kuntz.
Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
” Chance fights ever on the side of the prudent.”—Euripides

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for Sohn Investment Conference in New York, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

May 13:1607 English colonists led by John Smith establish Jamestown at a second landing near the James River in Virginia – first permanent English settlement in North America
May 13: 1846 The United States declared that a state of war existed against Mexico. Go to article
May 13: 1913 First four-engined aircraft is flown by Igor Sikorsky in Russia
May 13: 1927 “Black Friday” on Berlin Stock Exchange

Yosemite’s ultra-deep canyon may have been carved in part by a ghost volcano and river, provocative research suggests
A river that drained the slopes of a now-vanished volcano may have carved Yosemite Valley’s depths during the last 10 million years.

Could a planet really develop a brain?
“My contention is that Earth may, if we are lucky and diligent and clever enough, grow an emergent superconsciousness.”

NASA satellites show Antarctica has gained ice despite rising global temperatures. How is that possible?

‘This should not be published’: Scientists cast doubt on study claiming trees ‘talk’ before solar eclipses
Claims that spruce trees synchronize their responses to a solar eclipse were widely reported recently — but many researchers are sceptical of the results.

May’s Full “Flower Moon” Was Visible Last Night — and It Was a Micromoon 🌕 The moon will also appear bright and full on Tuesday (May 13). Here’s what that means, and how to watch.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bangkok, Thailand
People take pictures of a sculpture by the US artist Kaws in front of the Grand Palace
Photograph: Sakchai Lalit/AP

Vesak Day 2025: celebrations of Buddha
Visitors watch as hot air balloons are launched at Ngawen Temple complex in Muntilan, Central Java, Indonesia
Photograph: Devi Rahman/AFP/Getty Images

Thousands of lanterns are released in front of Borobudur Temple, the world’s largest Buddhist monument and a Unesco World Heritage Site, in Magelang
Photograph: ZUMA Press/Alamy Live News
Market Closes for May 13^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42140.43	-269.67
		-0.64%
S&P 500	5886.55	+42.36
		+0.72%
NASDAQ	19010.09	+301.75
		+1.61%
TSX	25616.86	+84.68
		+0.33%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38183.26	+539.00
		+1.43%
HANG SENG	23108.27	-441.19
		-1.87%
SENSEX	81148.22	-1281.68
		-1.55%
FTSE 100*	8602.92	-2.06
		-0.02%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.208	3.208
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.518	3.509
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4650	4.4709
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9060	4.9050

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7178	0.7153
US $	1.3931	1.3980

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5595	0.6412
US $	1.1195	0.8932

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3235.40	3324.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.67	61.02

Market Commentary:
“Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.” Warren Buffett
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange rose for a sixth-straight session on Tuesday as new Prime Minister Mark Carney named his cabinet and emphasized his minority government will work quickly to put Canada’s economy back on track after the disruptions caused by a recent federal election and months of trade tensions with the United States.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 84.68 points to 25,616.86.
Among sectors today, the biggest gainers were Base Metals and Energy, up 0.73% and 1.84% respectively.
Telecoms, down 2.09%, was the biggest decliner, followed by Health Care, down 1.24%.
According to data provided late Monday afternoon by Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet the TSX was up 578.66 points or 2.32% over the prior five trading days and that had left it 1.07% from its record close of 25,808.25 hit Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025.
Month to date the TSX was up 2.78% and year to date was up 804.24 points or 3.25%.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3%, with five of 11 sectors higher, led by energy stocks.
As of market close, 137 of 217 stocks rose, while 79 fell.
Finning International Inc. led the advances, rising 14%, while Orla Mining Ltd. decreased 6%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 0.3% to 25,617
* Five of 11 sectors rose
** Energy gained, up 1%
** Communication services declined, down 2.3%
* Crude oil rose 2.9% to $64/bbl
* Natgas fell 0.9% to $3.61/mmbtu
* Gold rose 0.8% to $3,254/oz
* Silver rose 1.5% to $33/oz
Advancers:
* Finning International Inc. (FTT CN) +14%: Caterpillar Dealer Finning Rises on Record Backlog, Sales Beat
* Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA CN) +12%: Aya Gold & Silver Gains as FX, Cost Cuts Bring Q1 Beat (1)
* Celestica Inc. (CLS CN) +9.1%
* Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE CN) +8.9%
* Paramount Resources Ltd. (POU CN) +6.6%: Paramount Resources 1Q Petroleum and Natural Gas Sales C$266.6M
Decliners:
* Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA CN) -6%
* Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. (PET CN) -4.5%: Pet Valu Falls by Most Since August After 5.2M Share Offer (1)
* Constellation Software Inc/Canada (CSU CN) -3.8%: Constellation Software 1Q Revenue Misses Estimates
* Energy Fuels Inc/Canada (EFR CN) -3.4%
* Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI CN) -3.3%
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in the world’s largest technology companies wiped out the stock market’s losses for the year on bets tensions around Donald Trump’s trade war are cooling, with inflation data showing limited impacts thus far.
Equities climbed to the highest since February, the month that marked the S&P 500’s all-time high.
The gauge was up almost 1%, with chipmakers leading the charge as Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. will supply semiconductors to Saudi Arabian firm Humain for a massive data-center project.
Treasuries erased gains on speculation the Federal Reserve will stay put as it evaluates potential implications of tariffs.
The dollar fell.
The easing of trade tensions and a surprisingly positive earnings season have spurred optimism after a period of doubt about Corporate America’s ability to meet high profit expectations.
The stock market is “gonna go a lot higher,” Trump noted, citing an “explosion of investment and jobs” as he said Saudi Arabia would commit to investing $1 trillion in the US.
The Trump administration plans to overhaul regulations on the export of semiconductors used in artificial intelligence, tossing out a Biden-era approach that had drawn strenuous objections from America’s allies.
The US is also weighing a deal that would allow the United Arab Emirates to import more than a million advanced Nvidia chips, people familiar with the matter said.
After mostly missing out on last month’s rebound, investors are likely to be forced to chase the stock rally sparked by this weekend’s US-China trade truce, Bank of America Corp. strategists said.
A survey conducted before the trade talks in Geneva showed fund managers were a net 38% underweight on US stocks, the most in two years.
The poll is “bearish enough to suggest pain trade modestly higher” given the US-China deal would prevent a recession or a shock in credit markets, BofA strategist Michael Hartnett wrote.
The S&P 500 rose 0.7%.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.6%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6%.
A closely watched gauge of chipmakers rallied 3.15%.
The Bloomberg Magnificent Seven index of megacaps added 2.2%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.48%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%.
US inflation rose by less than forecast in April amid tame prices for clothing and new cars, suggesting little urgency so far by companies to pass along the cost of higher tariffs to consumers.
The temporary agreement reached over the weekend to de- escalate the trade war with China has largely scaled back projections of how much damage tariffs will inflict on the economy.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. boosted its forecast for US growth, dropping its earlier call that the world’s largest economy would sink into a recession in 2025.
While derivative contracts continue to price in two quarter-point rate cuts by the Fed this year, several major Wall Street banks this week forecast a rate cut in December, later “Like the Fed, investors are likely to look through today’s report as the prospect of trade deals and details on the budget reconciliation process are more material drivers for equities in the coming weeks,” said Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments.
“However, the absence of a negative with today’s print does lend to incremental upside for risk assets as hedges are unwound.”
Trump cited the softer-than-expected inflation report to again pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates.
“No Inflation, and Prices of Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and practically everything else, are DOWN!!!” Trump wrote in a social media post.
“THE FED must lower the RATE, like Europe and China have done.
What is wrong with Too Late Powell?”
The reprieve in US-China trade tensions that sent stocks soaring has chart watchers anticipating fresh all-time highs for the S&P 500.
According to John Kolovos, chief technical strategist at Macro Risk Advisors, there are now no more major resistance levels left until 6,144, the record hit on February 19.
“The S&P 500 trading above the 200-day moving average is another indication that the trend is turning positive,” Kolovos said.
“This increases the odds that pullbacks will be met with increased demand or buying interest.
It changes your strategy and sends the signal that we’re done with the bear market.”
Meantime, the negative earnings-growth momentum that has plagued US equities for months is finally taking a turn for the better.
A Citigroup Inc. gauge of earnings revisions, based on the number of upgrades and downgrades, has turned positive for the first time in six months.
According to a Bloomberg Intelligence earnings tracker, 77% of S&P 500 members that reported surprised positively in the first quarter, the highest since the second quarter of last year.
Meanwhile, earnings growth in the quarter is running at 13.1%, compared with just 6.6% expected before the start of the season.
Last month, sell-side strategists were downgrading their forecasts for the S&P 500 at a furious pace as Trump unleashed tariffs on the world and sparked a flurry of equities selling.
But since then, his administration has reversed direction and backpedaled on his harshest trade plans — most recently agreeing with China to temporarily reduce their levies on each other — forcing those same strategists to pull U-turns on their calls.
Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni and David Kostin of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are among the strategists changing course this week, calling for the S&P 500 to rally past 6,000 by December’s close.
They also were among the first to slash their 2025 targets for the benchmark during April’s stock-market rout triggered by Trump’s tariff announcement.
At the time, prognosticators were slashing expectations at the fastest rate since the Covid crash of March 2020.
Meanwhile, UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment officer Mark Haefele downgraded US stocks to neutral from attractive, saying the risk-reward was more balanced after the strong rebound from April lows.
Uncertainty is still high, and investor focus will eventually shift to the possibility of a lasting agreement over trade, Haefele wrote in a note.
“This is not a bearish view, nor a call to sell equities, and we recommend that investors maintain a full strategic allocation to US stocks.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. said it will cut 6,000 workers across the company in an effort to reduce management layers.
* Google unveiled the biggest update to its Android mobile operating system in years, weeks before its biggest competitor in the space, Apple Inc., is expected to give a preview of its overhauled iPhone software.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. unexpectedly replaced its chief executive and suspended earnings guidance, raising increasing questions over how the company once regarded as a safe bet by investors has got its cost predictions so wrong.
* The Commerce Department issued guidance stating that the use of Huawei Technologies Co.’s Ascend artificial intelligence chips “anywhere in the world” violates the government’s export controls, escalating US efforts to curb technological advances in China.
* Southwest Airlines Co. has filed with the US Transportation Department for authority to fly to any country with which the US has an Open Skies aviation agreement, signaling the carrier intends to expand its small international route network.
* Walt Disney Co. said its new sports streaming platform will be called ESPN, the same as its popular cable-TV channel, and cost $30 a month.
* China has removed a month-long ban on airlines taking delivery of Boeing Co. planes, according to people familiar with the matter, following a breakthrough in trade talks with the US that temporarily slashed tariffs on each side.
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has held talks with regulators about an Irish launch of its retail bank Marcus, a move that could shake up the country’s heavily concentrated market and give the Wall Street giant access to tens of billions of euros in deposits.
* EchoStar Corp., the wireless and pay-TV operator controlled by billionaire Charlie Ergen, fell for a second straight day after the company acknowledged that US regulators are reviewing its compliance with obligations to build a nationwide 5G network.
* US solar companies jumped after House Republicans released a draft of a tax bill that went easier on many players in the sector than analysts had expected. The lawmakers also proposed eliminating a production tax credit for hydrogen, sending Plug Power Inc. stock lower.
* Hertz Global Holdings Inc. plunged after the car-rental company posted a larger-than-expected loss in the first quarter, pressured by a slowdown in customer bookings.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. agreed to acquire WonderFi Technologies Inc., the operator of two Canadian cryptocurrency platforms, for about C$250 million ($179 million) in cash.
* L’Oreal SA sold $1 billion of investment-grade notes on Tuesday — the cosmetics company’s first deal in the US corporate bond market.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 3.15%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 0.9% to $1.1190
* The British pound rose 1% to $1.3306
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 147.43 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.1% to $104,841.4
* Ether rose 8.3% to $2,692.47
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.68%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.67%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.7% to $63.65 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,249.86 an ounce

–With assistance from Phil Kuntz, Julien Ponthus, Margaryta Kirakosian, Sujata Rao and Winnie Hsu.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
” We must never confuse elegance with snobbery.”– Yves Saint Laurent
Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday!
Carolann is away from the office for Sohn Investment Conference in New York, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

May 12, 1789: William Wilberforce makes his first major speech on abolition in the UK House of Commons, reasoning the slave trade morally reprehensible and an issue of natural justice
May 12, 1820: Florence Nightingale, the founder of modern nursing, was born in Florence, Italy. Go to article
May 12, 1835: Charles Darwin visits Alexander Caldcleugh’s copper mines at Panuncillo in northern Chile and is impressed by the extraordinary feats of labor performed by the workers
May 12, 1921: National Hospital Day 1st observed in the United States

‘If it was a man, we would say that’s a warrior’s grave’: Weapon-filled burials are shaking up what we know about women’s role in Viking society
New research is finding that some women in Viking Age Scandinavia were buried with war-grade weapons. Experts are divided about what that means.

Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 crashes back to Earth, disappearing into Indian Ocean after 53 years in orbit
The failed Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 has finally returned to Earth after 53 years in orbit. It disappeared into the Indian Ocean early Saturday morning.

Solution to ‘cocktail party problem’ could help people with hearing loss
Researchers drew inspiration from the auditory system to design a solution for the “cocktail party problem.”

World’s largest atom smasher turned lead into gold — and then destroyed it in an instant
The world’s largest particle collider produces roughly 89,000 gold nuclei every second, all from smashing lead atoms together at near-light-speed.

Images capturing a starving lion, fighting bison and pit of vipers honored in environmental photography awards
Winners and runners-up of the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation’s 2025 Environmental Photography Award revealed.

Scientists find hint of hidden liquid water ocean deep below Mars’ surface

Only 0.001% of deep ocean has ever been explored by humans — an area equal to the size of Rhode Island

Famous tomb said to hold Alexander the Great’s father actually contains younger man, a woman and 6 babies, study finds

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Buenos Aires, Argentina
An aerial view of fans of the TV series The Eternaut who gathered at one of the show’s filming locations to recreate the final scene. Some
of those in attendance were dressed in character with costumes and replica weapons
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

London, UK
People interact with balloons in the artist Martin Creed’s installation Half the Air in a Given Space (2025), where half the air at
Camden Arts Projects, a Grade II-listed former Methodist church, is filled with hundreds of white balloons
Photograph: Guy Bell/Alamy

A visitor looks out towards the Giza pyramid complex at the world’s largest archeological museum, which is slated to fully open this summer outside of Cairo
Photograph: Khaled Desouki/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 12^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42410.10	+1160.72
		+2.81%
S&P 500	5844.19	+184.28
		+3.26%
NASDAQ	18708.34	+779.42
		+4.35%
TSX	25532.18	+174.44
		+0.69%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37644.26	+140.93
		+0.38%
HANG SENG	23549.46	+681.72
		+2.98%
SENSEX	82429.90	+2975.43
		+3.74%
FTSE 100*	8604.98	+50.18
		+0.59%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.208	3.156
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.509	3.471
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4709	4.3804
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9050	4.8353

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7153	0.7175
US $	1.3980	1.3937

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5499	0.6452
US $	1.1090	0.9017

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3324.55	3352.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.02	59.91

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1817, the Warsaw Stock Exchange opened for trading in Poland, handling primarily government and corporate bonds. Initially, a mere one hour of trading, from 12 noon until 1 p.m., served to fill all the buy and sell orders.
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed above the 25,500 level for the first time in nearly three months on Monday after China and the United States agreed to a 90-day truce in their trade war.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 177.44 points at 25,532.18, its fifth-straight gain.
Among sectors, Information Technology, up 5.49%, and Base Metals, up 4.3%, led gains, while Utilities were down 0.97%, followed by Telecoms, down 0.20%.
Stock markets across North America were buoyed from the open by weekend reports the United States agreed to reduce levies on Chinese products to 30% from 145%, while China is cutting its levy on U.S. imports to 10% from 125%.
As the two countries set a three-month deadline to work towards a broader agreement.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.7%, with eight of 11 sectors higher, led by information technology stocks.
As of market close, 141 of 218 stocks rose, while 74 fell.
Shopify Inc. led the advances, rising 14%, while Lundin Gold Inc. decreased 18%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 0.7% to 25,532
* Eight of 11 sectors rose
** Information technology gained, up 7.6%
** Materials declined, down 4.9%
* Crude oil rose 1.7% to $62/bbl
* Natgas fell 3.6% to $3.66/mmbtu
* Gold fell 3.1% to $3,241/oz
* Silver fell 0.9% to $32/oz
Advancers:
* Shopify Inc. (SHOP CN) +14%: Shopify Jumps as Stock to Replace MongoDB in Nasdaq 100 Index
* Aritzia Inc. (ATZ CN) +9.5%: Chip, Travel, Consumer Stocks Rise on US-China Trade Thaw (3)
* Tfi International Inc. (TFII CN) +9.1%: Canadian Industrials Gain After US, China Negotiate on Trade
* Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM CN) +9%: Hudbay Minerals Shares Gain on 1Q Adj. EPS Beat: Street Wrap
* Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY CN) +8.5%: Highbridge Capital Management Buys IWM ETF: 13F
Decliners:
* Lundin Gold Inc. (LUG CN) -18%: Chip, Travel, Consumer Stocks Rise on US-China Trade Thaw (3)
* Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS CN) -16%: Pan American- MAG Deal to Expand Silver Portfolio: Street Wrap
* Orla Mining Ltd. (OLA CN) -16%: Orla Mining Boosts FY Gold Production Forecast
* Iamgold Corp. (IMG CN) -10%
* Novagold Resources Inc. (NG CN) -9.1%
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s bets that the US-China trade truce marked the end to an all-out tariff war drove the S&P 500 up over 3%, while sinking defensive corners of the market from bonds to gold and haven currencies.
The dollar climbed the most since its November post-election rally.
The rebound in risk appetite and diminished expectations of a recession drove the stock benchmark above President Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” level.
A surge in big techs put the Nasdaq 100 back into a bull market just about a month after it plunged 20% from a previous record.
Amid a potential reset in inflation expectations, Treasury yields climbed as traders lowered their Federal Reserve wagers to just two rate cuts in 2025.
For big investors shocked into defensive measures at the height of April’s chaos, the swift recovery in markets has been a mixed blessing.
Shorting the dollar, going long stock volatility and piling on bets premised on multiple Fed rate cuts were among the most popular trades in mid-April.
Each has taken severe lumps.
Indeed, their unwinding may be adding fuel to the bounce-back.
After two days of high stakes talks in Switzerland, trade negotiators from the world’s biggest economies announced Monday a massive de-escalation in tariffs.
In a carefully coordinated joint statement, the US slashed duties on Chinese products to 30% from 145% for a 90-day period, while Beijing dropped its levy on most goods to 10%.
“No one had these low China tariff rates on their bingo cards. This is a big positive surprise,” said Jeff Buchbinder at LPL Financial.
“Risk remains that tariffs go back up from current levels as the pauses end, though taking worst-case scenarios off the table is reassuring.”
The S&P 500 breached its 200-day moving average.
The Nasdaq 100 rallied 4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added over 1,000 points.
A gauge of megacaps soared 5.7%.
Trump said he spoke with Apple Inc.’s Tim Cook, just as the iPhone maker was reported to be considering price hikes.
Drugmakers bounced on bets they averted the worst-case scenario as Trump targets price cuts.
The two-year yield climbed 11 basis points to around 4%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 1%.
“The larger-than-expected drop in the tariffs between the US and China, while temporary, and the establishment of a framework for continued discussion, is exactly what the stock market was hoping to see,” said Carol Schleif at BMO Private Wealth.
The risk-on move suggests that investors had not expected such a positive outcome to come so quickly, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The deal is consistent her firm’s base-case that the effective US tariff on Chinese imports will settle around 30-40%.
“Investors will now be focused on signs that the temporary fix can be turned into a lasting agreement,” she said.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, the news of a trade agreement between the US and China is certainly positive for the stock market.
The question now is whether this change will be enough to help earnings growth reverse higher in a significant way or not.
“Think of this like a trade embargo being lifted, at least for now,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“Tariffs are still high, Americans will likely feel the sting of higher prices, and companies probably won’t make different strategic decisions in the wake of this deal.
But trade between the US and China could open up more, which means more shipping and fewer empty shelves (for now).”
“There’s still a very steep hill to climb to get a real agreement,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.
“The good news is that this pause gives US companies more time to adapt and to plan for contingencies should the trade talks go sideways again.
Also, with any luck, the tax package may be across the finish line and investors will no longer have to worry about trade derailing tax.”
Investors who followed Trump’s advice on social media in the past month have enjoyed one of the biggest rallies in the S&P 500under his leadership.
Having slumped on Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the benchmark soared in the month after he said it was “a great time to buy” on April 9 — hours before he paused some of the harshest levies in a century.
He reiterated that on May 8, telling reporters the economic outlook warranted piling into stocks.
Sentiment toward the US stock market is improving, but it’s too early for investors to sound the all-clear, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.
The team led by Michael Wilson identified four factors needed to sustain a more durable rally but saw progress in just two: “Optimism around a trade deal with China and stabilizing earnings revisions,” they wrote in a note on Monday.
“The other two items on our checklist — a more dovish Fed and the 10-year yield below 4% without recessionary data — have yet to materialize.”
With good news on the trade front giving a boost to stocks at the start of the week, it will be up to inflation data, retail sales, and earnings to sustain the momentum, according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“There’s still debate about how much tariffs have already disrupted supply chains and potentially slowed growth,” Larkin said.
“While numbers that feed into the stagflation narrative could certainly derail the bullish mood, the economy still appears to be on solid ground, as Jerome Powell noted last week.”
Swaps that track upcoming central bank meetings showed just 56 basis points of easing by December, down from near 75 basis points last week.
Traders still see the first quarter-point cut in September.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said the Trump administration’s tariff policies are likely to boost inflation and weigh on economic growth, even with the recently announced reduction in levies on China.
Trade policies are evolving and are likely to continue shifting, even as recently as this morning,” Kugler said Monday in remarks prepared for an event in Dublin.
“Still, they appear likely to generate significant economic effects even if tariffs stay close to the currently announced levels.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Eli Lilly & Co.’s obesity drug Zepbound helped people trim about two inches more off their waists than Novo Nordisk A/S’s Wegovy in the first head-to-head study of the rival medicines.
* NRG Energy Inc. agreed to acquire a fleet of natural gas-fired power plants from LS Power Equity Advisors LLC for about $12 billion including debt, betting the fuel will be crucial to meet electricity demand from data centers.
* CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer George Kurtz disclosed last month that he’d gifted over $1 billion worth of his company’s stock to undisclosed recipients, sharply reducing his influence over the company in an unusual move for a tech founder.
* SoftBank Group Corp.’s plans to invest $100 billion in artificial intelligence infrastructure in the US have slowed, with economic risks stemming from Washington’s tariffs holding up financing talks.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 3.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 2.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 5.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 3.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 1%
* The euro fell 1.4% to $1.1093
* The British pound fell 1% to $1.3178
* The Japanese yen fell 2.1% to 148.41 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.3% to $101,874.95
* Ether fell 1.9% to $2,461.81
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced nine basis points to 4.47%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 2.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 4.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $61.84 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 2.7% to $3,234.48 an ounce

–With assistance from Margaryta Kirakosian, Sujata Rao, Julien Ponthus, Anand Krishnamoorthy and Vildana Hajric.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
” The body says what words cannot.”– Martha Graham
Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

May 9, 1960: the first birth control pill is approved by the US FDA, providing a revolutionary method for family planning and giving women greater control over reproductive health.
On May 9, 1994, South Africa’s newly elected parliament chose Nelson Mandela to be the country’s first black president.

Candice Bergen, actress, b.1946.
Billy Joel, singer/songwriter, b.1949.

Upcoming movie highlights ‘the most important place on Earth’
“Ocean with David Attenborough” is a new documentary that chronicles the wonders of the ocean and the threats it faces. The film’s release this week coincides with the veteran broadcaster’s 99th birthday.

7 myths about the Vikings that are (almost) totally false
All that you’ve heard about the Vikings may not be true. Read More.

Invasive Asian needle ants are surging in US Southeast — and their bite can trigger anaphylaxis
Asian needle ants found in the southeastern states of the U.S. have been spreading north and west for years, but experts now consider them to be a medically important pest and urge caution. Read More.

Scientists discover how to use your body to process data in wearable devices
Scientists have discovered a way to use live tissue as a computational reservoir to solve problems and potentially predict chaotic systems like the weather. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Canada goslings enjoy the warm sunshine in a pond at Kew Gardens, in west London
Photograph: Imageplotter/Alamy Live News

A sika deer pauses under blossom at Nara Park, Japan. The park, established in 1880, is home to many wild animals and plant species.
Sika deer, a species native to East Asia and numbering more than 1,200, are among the symbols of the park and live among the sakura trees
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

A purple sunbird perches on a flower stem on the outskirts of Ajmer, India
Photograph: Himanshu Sharma/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 9^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41249.38	-119.07
		-0.29%
S&P 500	5659.91	-4.03
		-0.07%
NASDAQ	17928.92	+0.78
		—
TSX	25357.74	+103.68
		+0.41%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37503.33	+574.70
		+1.56%
HANG SENG	22867.74	+91.82
		+0.40%
SENSEX	79454.47	-880.34
		-1.10%
FTSE 100*	8554.80	+23.19
		+0.27%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.156	3.202
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.471	3.500
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3804	4.3785
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8353	4.8428

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7175	0.7183
US $	1.3937	1.3921

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5676	0.6379
US $	1.1244	0.8893

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3352.30	3392.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	59.91	58.07

Market Commentary:
It takes time to make money.
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Friday made it four winning sessions in a row as BMO’s Douglas Porter seemed to catch the mood of investors in noting an easing in global trade tensions and that the Canadian economy is “holding up a touch better” than expected, though he noted the uncertainty around tariffs continues.
Buoyed too by higher commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 103.68 points at 25,357.74, adding to the 300 points gained over the prior three days.
Sectors were mixed, with the gains led by Telecoms, up 2.6%, and followed by Energy, up 2%.
Limiting gains was the Information Technology sector, down 1.5%.
Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, in his weekly ‘Talking Points’ noted at least three developments this week were widely interpreted as turning down the temperature on the brewing global trade war, providing modest support for equity prices.
Probably most important, Porter said, the United States and China agreed to talk, without either losing face, and some form of negotiations begin this weekend in neutral Switzerland.
Second, with much fanfare, the U.S. and U.K. agreed on a preliminary deal to dial down tariffs on metals and autos, perhaps providing a framework for others.
And, finally, Canadian PM Mark Carney’s “high-stakes meeting” with President Trump at the White House “at least set the stage for less fractious relations between the two massive trading partners” than seen for four months.
“The calmer tone is a small positive, Porter added. However, Porter said “while all these steps are indeed incrementally positive, it really doesn’t add up to much progress”.
He added, “The stark reality is that overall U.S. tariffs have barely budged, with the weighted average still hovering at levels no one has seen in their lifetime.
And, from our perspective, the U.K. ‘deal’ was arguably bad news.
Even with some concessions, Britain is still left with a base-line tariff rate of 10%, and this is for one of the few major economies that runs a trade deficit with America.
In other words, all others, including penguins, but excluding USMCA-compliant goods, will be dealing with a minimum tariff rate of 10% for the foreseeable future.
And those nations running significant trade surpluses with the U.S. are likely looking at a higher base rate.
The U.K. deal normalized the abnormally high base tariff rate, not good.”
Similarly, Porter said BMO’s big takeaway from the Carney and Trump meeting was the President’s telling response to a journalist question on why Canada couldn’t say or do anything to get tariffs lifted: “It’s the way it is”.
Porter said while words are clearly not policies, the President was “decidedly lukewarm” on the future of USMCA, seeming to even question whether it need exist.
Somewhat offsetting those concerning remarks, he also hinted that Canada may not face any additional measures.
“So,” Porter added, “tariffs on metals and autos are here to stay, as well as on non-USMCA-compliant goods, but that maybe it.
If that’s where things settle, the economy faces something right between the Bank of Canada’s two scenarios, and perhaps slightly firmer than our current base case projection.”
Canada, Porter noted, remains the single biggest U.S. export destination, absorbing US$351 billion in the 12 months to March.
Meanwhile, Porter noted Canada began to see the first “hard” economic results for April this week.
“Our take so far is that while conditions may be holding up a touch better than we expected, it’s still not good.”
He noted employment eked out a modest 7,400 gain but said that was “flattered” by a 37,100 increase in public administration, likely due to election workers.
In other words, Porter said, the economy just saw back-to-back underlying job losses of around 30k, with all of the latest drop in manufacturing payrolls.
He added the spread between Canada’s 6.9% jobless rate and the 4.2% in the U.S. is now a “towering” 2.7 ppts, matching the widest gap of the past 24 years, aside from some results during Covid.
Porter also noted home sales are “slumbering” amid the economic uncertainty.
He said: “One major retailer did report that consumers have been resilient so far, albeit against a backdrop of the country’s oldest retailer sadly in the throes of liquidation.
In sum, the economy has perhaps held up slightly better than our weak and below consensus call but still leaving the Bank of Canada in a position to cut further, with the next meeting in early June very much a live option.”
Canada employment data will push the BoC to cut by 25bps in June, according to David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie.
He noted the OIS market probability of a rate cut for June 4 increased to about 60-65%, up from near 45% yesterday.
Doyle said whether the BoC proceeds with a cut may hinge on other incoming data including CPI for April due on May 20 and real GDP for Q1, due on May 30.
“Overall, we anticipate intermittent cuts totaling 75 bps by year-end, pushing the Overnight rate down to 2.0%.”
Of commodities, gold prices rose late afternoon on Friday following two days of losses as the dollar fell off the highest in a month ahead of trade talks between the US. and China.
Gold for June delivery was last seen up US$28.70 to US$3,334.70 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher on Friday on hopes global trade tensions will ease as the U.S. and China ready to meet in Switzerland on the weekend for their first talks since the pair last month imposed punishing tariffs on each other’s exports that have nearly halted all trade between the world’s two largest economies.
WTI oil for June delivery closed up $1.11 to settle at US$61.021 per barrel, while July Brent crude was last seen up $1.10 to US$63.94.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4%, with six of 11 sectors higher, led by communication services stocks.
As of market close, 132 of 218 stocks rose, while 84 fell.
Air Canada led the advances, rising 15%, while Pembina Pipeline Corp. decreased 5.9%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 0.4% to 25,358
* Six of 11 sectors rose
** Communication services gained, up 3.6%
** Information technology declined, down 1.7%
* Crude oil rose 1.8% to $61/bbl
* Natgas rose 5.5% to $3.79/mmbtu
* Gold rose 0.9% to $3,335/oz
* Silver rose 1.1% to $33/oz
Advancers:
* Air Canada (AC CN) +15%: Air Canada Shares Jump After 1Q Ebitda Beat: Street Wrap
* Lundin Gold Inc. (LUG CN) +14%: Lundin Gold Jumps on Dividend Hikes and Adjusted EPS Beat (1)
* NFI Group Inc. (NFI CN) +13%: Bus Manufacturer NFI Group Rises as 1Q Revenue Climbs 16% (1)
* Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN CN) +9.7%: Algonquin Power Shares Gain as Cost Cuts Lead to Q1 Beat (1)
* SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM CN) +7.7%
Decliners:
* Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PPL CN) -5.9%: Pembina Falls as Pipeline Tolls Seen Falling Post Regulation (1)
* NGEx Minerals Ltd. (NGEX CN) -4.6%
* Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU CN) -4.1%
* Definity Financial Corp. (DFY CN) -3.5%: Definity Financial 1Q Insurance Revenue Beats Estimates
* Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY CN) -3.3%
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street ended the week on a more cautious note, with stocks and bonds fluctuating as the world’s two largest economies get ready to kickstart their trade negotiations.
Investors refrained from making riskier bets on speculation that while discussions between Chinese and American officials could represent a diplomatic icebreaker, a comprehensive commitment would only come to fruition after several rounds of talks.
Following a rapid $6 trillion surge in the S&P 500 from the brink of a bear market, action has been more muted in recent days.
The gauge closed little changed on Friday.
Traders around the world have been eager for any signs of easing in the tariff war that has roiled markets and raised risks of a global economic downturn.
President Donald Trump floated an 80% tariff on China ahead of negotiations due to begin Saturday as he urged the nation to do more to open its markets to US goods.
“This weekend’s developments will probably be binary for markets, but don’t expect a quick resolution to US-China trade tensions just yet,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
“I’m expecting many ups and downs going forward as Washington and Beijing make attempts to meet in the middle while also looking to secure their own economic interests.”
Trump’s team has set a list of roughly 20 partners as the focus of early negotiations, people familiar with the matter said.
The group includes nations such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam, all top sources of US imports where Trump wants to shrink the trade deficit.
It also encompasses comparatively minor partners like Fiji, Lesotho and Mauritius.
“Markets continue to be reactive to trade headlines,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“We are likely in a sideways period of volatility until we begin to get tangible, calculable outcomes.
Nobody knows the ultimate outcome, so this is the time to remain informed and vigilant, but not reactive or emotional.”
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 were little changed.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.3%.
Across the Atlantic, Germany’s DAX Index became the first major European gauge to surpass its March peak, recouping all declines sparked by Trump’s trade war.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.38%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lost 0.2%, while posting best week since March.
Even as the US takes steps toward trade negotiations, the stunning American stock rebound is likely over, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
He doesn’t see further gains as investors “buy the expectation, sell the fact.”
About $24.8 billion was redeemed from US stocks in the past four weeks, the biggest in two years, according to the note from BofA citing EPFR Global data.
Billionaire Barry Sternlicht said the economy will likely weaken even though the stock market has bounced back from Trump’s major tariff announcement in early April.
“The markets have recovered, shockingly, to pre-Liberation Day highs, but that doesn’t really feel right,” Sternlicht said Friday on an earnings call for Starwood Property Trust Inc., where he is chairman and chief executive officer.
“Things like travel are clearly off.”
With talks between the US and China about to start, trillions of dollars are hanging in the balance for American companies.
The average member of the S&P 500 made 6.1% of its revenue from selling goods in China or to Chinese companies in 2024, according to an analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence’s Gina Martin Adams and Gillian Wolff.
“The bottom line is that if the US has to decouple completely from China, it will result in a significant decline in earnings for S&P 500 companies no longer selling products to Chinese consumers,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, wrote.
Meantime, a stock-market indicator has entered a phase historically associated with the worst return prospects for the S&P 500 after trade fears gripped financial markets and dimmed Corporate America’s outlook for profit growth.
The Equity Market Regime Model, a Bloomberg Intelligence model that tracks the benchmark stock gauge and clusters periods into three phases — accelerated growth (green), moderate growth (yellow) and decline (red) — fell into the cautious red zone in
March and April, according to data compiled by BI’s Adams and Wolff.
The seven prior instances have been associated with a 5.6% average drop in the S&P 500 in the next 12 months.
The arguments between bulls and bears remain intense, with rational arguments on both sides, according to Hackett at Nationwide.
“Bulls argue that peak uncertainty is behind the market, corroborated by improving trade dynamics, strong price action, and better-than-feared earnings,” he said.
“The bear case highlights the headwinds facing economic and earnings momentum in the coming quarters, with earnings estimates receding.”
In the absence of relevant economic data Friday, investors waded through a raft of remarks from central bank officials.
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said that policymakers should hold rates for now amid a stable economy and tariff uncertainties.
Her colleague Michael Barr warned trade policies could put officials in a difficult position by generating inflationary pressures and higher unemployment.
Fed Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said not all firms can raise prices on tariffs.

Corporate Highlights:
* US prosecutors and regulators investigating a $32 million deal between CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. and a technology distributor are probing what senior company executives may have known about it and are examining other transactions made by the cybersecurity firm, according to two people familiar with the matter.
* Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., China’s leading chipmaker, warned sales could fall as much as 6% this quarter because of production disruptions.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s revenue jumped 48% in April, underscoring how electronics firms scrambled to acquire essential components before global tariffs took effect.
* Expedia Group Inc. cut its full-year outlook for gross bookings and revenue after it saw weaker-than-expected domestic and inbound travel demand in the US at the start of the year.
* Lyft Inc. reported better-than-expected gross bookings in the first quarter, drawing a sharp contrast with the disappointing results issued by its much-larger ride-hailing rival Uber Technologies Inc. earlier this week.
* Pinterest Inc.’s second-quarter revenue guidance topped estimates at the midpoint, further easing concerns of an advertising slowdown.
* Coinbase Global Inc.’s first-quarter revenue jumped while profit declined as the largest US crypto exchange navigated the volatile price swings of the digital asset market.
* DraftKings Inc. rose as investors looked past a disappointing first quarter hurt by a March Madness basketball tournament that went especially well for gamblers.
* Sweetgreen Inc. cut its annual guidance, citing a sharp decline in consumer sentiment following the announcement of new tariffs in the US.
* Illumina Inc. cut its full-year adjusted profit guidance for the second time in three months as it grapples with the impact of tariffs and China banning imports of its gene-sequencing machines.
* IAG SA announced its biggest order yet for widebody jets, doubling down on long-haul demand with a $10 billion fleet investment that aims to help sustain its earnings momentum.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1256
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3311
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 145.30 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $103,200.18
* Ether rose 6.7% to $2,332.5
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.38%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.56%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.57%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.7% to $60.94 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $3,328.68 an ounce

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Happiness is good health and a bad memory. –Ingrid Bergman, 1915-1982.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
The Helston Furry Dance or “Flora Dance” takes place today in Helston, Cornwall, England.  It is one of the oldest traditional British customs still practiced today.   Origins: Likely pre-Christian in origin, the dance is a celebration of spring and fertility, welcoming the return of warmer weather and the rebirth of nature. The word “furry” is believed to come from the Cornish word fer, meaning “fair” or “feast.
There are four dances throughout the day, the most famous being the Midday Dance featuring local dignitaries in formal dress — men in morning suits and women in long gowns and hats.
Participants perform a stately, looping dance through the town’s streets, homes, shops, and gardens, accompanied by the traditional Flora Dance tune played by a brass band.  The town is festooned with flowers and greenery, especially lily of the valley, which is also worn by dancers.

May 8, 1886: Coca-Cola is invented by Dr. John S. Pemberton in Atlanta Georgia, originally marketed as a medicinal tonic before becoming one of the most recognized beverages in the world. Go to article.
May 8, 1945: Victory Day, VE Day in Europe.

Metal detectorists unearth dazzling Anglo-Saxon gold-and-garnet raven head and ring: ‘It’s unbelievable — I’m a bit emotional’
Metal detectorists in southwest England unearthed the two gold-and-garnet objects from the Anglo-Saxon period in January. Read More.

NASA Mars satellite uncovers markings ‘like paint dripping down a wall’ on Martian surface
Wave-like soil patterns on the Martian surface match those found in Earth’s cold, mountain regions, which could help scientists better understand the Red Planet’s climate history and
search for signs of life. Read More.

NASA just sent a giant balloon around the world in 16 days. Here’s why.
NASA’s massive super-pressure balloon has completed a 16-day trip around the Southern Hemisphere — a milestone in high-altitude flight and atmospheric research. Read More.

World’s first silicon-based quantum computer is small enough to plug into a regular power socket
An Irish startup has created the world’s first silicon-based quantum computer — it can still integrate seamlessly with classical computing in data centers. Read More.

Globes expand award categories
The Golden Globes are adding a new category for 2026: best podcast of the year. Only the “top 25 podcasts” will qualify for the award. “As the world of entertainment continues to evolve, we are excited to recognize new forms of storytelling,” Golden Globes president Helen Hoehne said.

Regal portrait unveiled in London
In a tradition dating back more than 400 years, the official coronation portrait of Britain’s King Charles was made public this week. Created by English figurative painter Peter Kuhfeld, the king’s portrait will join one of his wife, Queen Camilla, at the National Gallery for one month. It will then be moved to Buckingham Palace.

Like father, like son
The eldest son of soccer superstar Cristiano Ronaldo has earned his first call-up for the Portugal Under-15 national squad. The 14-year-old Ronaldo Jr. has also taken to mimicking his dad’s famous “Siu” goal celebration, a practice that has gone viral on social media.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bristol, UK
‘A peacock butterfly feeding on the blossom on the damson tree in our garden, on the day that British summer time started.’
Photograph: Steven Edgar

Kyoto, Japan
‘Visitors enjoy the plum blossom at Kitano Tenmangū. The shrine grounds are home to a large number of ume (plum) trees, and are one of the most famous spots for ume-mi (plum-viewing).’
Photograph: Hugo Anaya

La Paz, Bolivia
‘Two local cholitas deep in conversation and walking in sync. I loved their vibrant colours against the beige stone behind.’
Photograph: Louise Milne
Market Closes for May 8^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41368.45	+254.48
		+0.62%
S&P 500	5663.94	+32.66
		+0.58%
NASDAQ	17928.14	+189.98
		+1.07%
TSX	25254.06	+92.88
		+0.37%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36928.63	148.97
		0.41%
HANG SENG	22775.92	+84.04
		+0.37%
SENSEX	80334.81	-411.97
		-0.51%
FTSE 100*	8531.61	-27.72
		-0.32%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.202	3.143
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.500	3.474
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3785	4.2946
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8428	4.7980

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7183	0.7226
US $	1.3921	1.3838

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5637	0.6395
US $	1.1225	0.8908

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3392.25	3391.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	58.07	59.09

Market Commentary:
When your outgo exceeds your income, your upkeep becomes your downfall. –Rick Rule, b. 1953.
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed with a second-straight gain on Thursday as Scotiabank started to look at the impact of temporary versus permanent tariffs and BMO Capital Markets cited “high-quality Canadian companies that have exhibited decelerating breadth of positive revisions over the past several months.”
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed was up 93.88 points at 25,254.06, adding to the 180-plus points gained Wednesday.
Among sectors, the biggest gainers were Energy, up 2.8% and Base Metals, up 1.8%.
With officials from the United States set to meet their counterparts from China over the weekend to start talks on a possible trade deal between them, and with the U.S. today getting the ball rolling with the outline of a deal between it and the United Kingdom, investors are already looking towards an end to the brewing trade war between Canada and the United States. too.
Scotiabank presented an alternative scenario where tariffs are removed September 2025, generating significantly less economic damage and fewer job losses than the bank had seen as its April baseline.
By 2026, GDP is up to one percentage point higher in both countries compared to a permanent tariffs scenario, while the unemployment rate is around one percentage lower, Scotia said.
“The implications for monetary policy differ between the two countries, reflecting how each economy absorbs the trade shock, it added.
In the United States, Scotia sees a large increase in import duties functioning as a supply shock, raising inflation substantially and damaging growth.
“This limits the Federal Reserve’s ability to react, leading to a higher policy rate relative to a no-tariff scenario.
Quick removal of tariffs would allow inflation to reverse on its own, creating more room for monetary policy to ease.
In this case, the policy rate would be lower than in a permanent tariffs scenario but still above the no-tariff scenario.”
In Canada, Scotia sees the tariffs “shock” primarily acting through demand-side channels, allowing the Bank of Canada more flexibility to respond.
“Under permanent or temporary tariffs, monetary policy is looser than in a no-tariff scenario, with temporary tariffs requiring less easing than permanent ones.”
Meanwhile, some investors are again looking at their Canadian investment strategies, given trade tensions and the corresponding threat of a global recession are seemingly easing, at least for now.
Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, noted he and his team recently adjusted their 2025 EPS target for the TSX down 3%, from $1,600 to $1,550, “reflecting what the bank believes is a minor ‘tweak’ when considering all the emotion, rhetoric, and frankly, unsubstantiated ‘noise’ that has bullied many analysts, companies, and macro-observers to ‘react’ in a much more decidedly negative tone.”
Nonetheless, Belski said, while the actual quantifiable impact of tariffs and U.S. growth remains unknown, TSX earnings estimates will likely remain under pressure over the near term.
“In fact,” he added, “forward earnings revision trends, which had been stagnant throughout the year as analysts assessed the trade risks, have started to decidedly swing negative since the end of March.”
From BMO’s perspective, Canadian stocks are “exhibiting a well-anticipated negative revision cycle, one we believe has already been fully priced in and may ultimately be short-lived (e.g., regressive)”.
As such, the team at BMO believe investors should not be reactionary to negative guidance and instead use the downward revision cycle for what it truly represents, a historically tested and proven contrarian indicator.
“Overall,” Belski said, “we continue to believe investors should remain focused on high-quality Canadian companies, while also overlaying a contrarian revision tilt.
As such, we have included a screen of high-quality Canadian companies that have exhibited decelerating breadth of positive revisions over the past several months.”
Belski’s “Canadian Quality Screen” included ATCO (ACO-X.TO), Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.TO), Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO), Cogeco Communications CCA.TO), CCL Industries (CCL-B.TO), Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO), Constellation Software (CSU.TO), Dollarama (DOL.TO), Enghouse Systems (ENGH.TO) and CGI (GIB-A.TO).
It also included Great-West Lifeco (GWO.TO), iA Financial (IAG.TO), Intact Financial (IFC.TO) and IGM Financial (IGM.TO).
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a gain on Thursday amid hopes around a cooling of trade tensions as the United States readies for tariff talks with China, while reports said the Trump Administration has reached a framework for trade deal with the United Kingdom.
WTI crude oil for June delivery closed up $1.84 to settle at US$59.91 per barrel, while July Brent crude was last seen up $1.67 to US$62.79.
But gold traded lower for a second day late afternoon on Thursday as planned weekend talks between the U.S. and China seemed to calm trade tensions and ease safe-haven demand, while the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a day-prior decision, pushing the dollar and yields sharply higher.
Gold for June delivery was last seen down $80.80 to US$3,311.10 per ounce.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.4%, or 92.88 to 25,254.06 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since April 2.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.8%.
OceanaGold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 12.6%.
Today, 132 of 218 shares rose, while 84 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 0.9%
* The index advanced 13% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 9.3% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.4% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 17.6% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.8% in the past 5 days and rose 12% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.07t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 30.23% compared with 30.21% in the previous session and the average of 30.44% over the past month
Financials | 58.1527| 0.7| 17/8
Industrials | 34.6023| 1.1| 21/7
Energy | 24.5602| 0.6| 29/11
Information Technology | 23.3805| 1.0| 9/1
Communication Services | 11.2164| 2.0| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 8.0341| 1.0| 9/1
Real Estate | 0.9189| 0.2| 7/12
Health Care | 0.5604| 0.9| 3/1
Utilities | -1.4753| -0.1| 10/5
Consumer Staples | -21.9689| -2.1| 4/6
Materials | -45.0914| -1.3| 18/32
Brookfield Corp | 29.7800| 3.8| 17.6| -3.0
Canadian Natural
Resources | 29.4900| 5.0| 47.8| -5.8
Constellation
Software | 18.2400| 2.6| 40.9| 16.6
Agnico Eagle Mines
Ltd | -9.7380| -1.7| -24.9| 41.9
Enbridge | -14.5200| -1.5| 90.3| 4.6
TC Energy | -16.9800| -3.3| -12.3| 2.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s risk-on mood prevailed on Thursday, with stocks up and bonds down as Donald Trump announced a trade deal with the UK while noting that if China talks go well, tariffs could be lowered.
Equities also gained after the president said investors should buy shares now.
For a market hoping for an easing of tensions between the US and its top commercial partners, that was enough to fuel a rally in S&P 500 – with the gauge briefly topping its April 2 high before the advance subsided.
While most major industries rose, gains were led by economically sensitive sectors.
Bitcoin surpassed $100,000.
As the safety bid ebbed, gold and haven currencies fell.
Short-term Treasury yields surged as traders pared bets on rate cuts.
Trump pitched his trade framework with the UK as a historic achievement, and the first step in his revolutionary effort to overhaul the global economy.
As the US prepares for the start of talks with China — the biggest target of Trump’s tariff onslaught — the president said he believed negotiations could result in tangible progress.
“As we get the details of this trade deal today, and find out how much progress the US and China are making towards the most important trade deal this weekend, it should give investors some more clarity about how much of an impact the trade issue will have on the US and global economy going forward,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
Trump also said that promising trade news paired with Republican efforts to pass legislation extending and expanding his signature tax cuts should be reason for investor optimism.
“This country will hit a point that you better go out and buy stock,” he said.
The S&P 500 rose 0.6%.
The Nasdaq 100 gained 1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6%.
The Russell 2000 climbed 1.8%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 11 basis points to 4.37%.
A soft $25 billion sale of 30-year bonds also weighed on the market.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%.
“Tariffs are steering the boat again,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.
“We are seeing a risk-on sentiment.
The fear of missing out on favorable agreements being reached has limited the number of sellers.”
Trade indeed remains the primary story, says Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
And markets will likely take their cues from how upcoming negotiations unfold, he added.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet in Switzerland with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on trade in the coming days.
Trump said that if talks went well, he could consider lowering the 145% tariff he has imposed on many Chinese goods.
“It could be,” Trump said in response to a question about the possibility.
“I mean, we’re going to see. Right now, you can’t get any higher.
It’s at 145% so we know it’s coming down.
I think we’re going to have a very good relationship.”
Icebreaker or Breakthrough?
While the real game-changer would be progress with China, that’s where it gets murky, according Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“The weekend meeting between the US and China feels more like a diplomatic icebreaker than a breakthrough moment,” Razaqzada noted.
“We could be in for a long, drawn-out negotiation season, which may limit the upside potential for risk assets.”
While we may be incrementally moving toward de-escalation of the global trade war, there is still plenty of uncertainty remaining, not least given the extensive list of countries that still need to obtain individual deals, noted Martin Frandsen at Principal Asset Management.
“Markets will likely need further evidence that the peak uncertainty is tailing before we see a recovery in consumer and business confidence,” he said.
Wild swings have lashed US assets as Trump’s fast-evolving tariff war put the S&P 500 on the brink of a bear market just a month ago — with a plunge of almost 20% from its February record through April 8.
Since then, the gauge rallied almost 14%.
The gauge’s median performance following one-month rallies of over 10%, as well as those that occurred after declines of that same magnitude in the prior month, has been better than the average for all periods since 1953, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc.’s silicon design group is working on new chips that will serve as the brains for future devices, including its first smart glasses, more powerful Macs and artificial intelligence servers.
* British Airways parent IAG SA is poised to order about 30 Boeing Co. 787 Dreamliner aircraft, according to people familiar with the matter, as the US plane maker snags an early win under President Donald Trump’s new trade deal with the UK.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., the parent of HBO and CNN, rose in New York trading on speculation it may split off its cable TV networks into a separate company, overshadowing financial results that missed estimates.
* Peloton Interactive Inc. reported a 13% decline in revenue last quarter, marking the third straight year-over-year decline in sales.
* Arm Holdings Plc gave a disappointing sales forecast for the current quarter, stoking concerns about a tariff-fueled slowdown for the chip industry.
* Shopify Inc. projected slowing profit growth in the current quarter, with executives pledging to keep spending to boost sales growth.
* Coinbase Global Inc. agreed to acquire Deribit, the world’s largest exchange for Bitcoin and Ether options, for $2.9 billion as the biggest US crypto exchange makes a push into the derivatives market.
* Krispy Kreme Inc. said it will no longer pay quarterly cash dividends in order to pay down its debt and focus on growth.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $1.1226
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.3242
* The Japanese yen fell 1.5% to 145.93 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.7% to $101,323.45
* Ether rose 18% to $2,117.36
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 11 basis points to 4.38%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.55%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.4% to $60.02 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.7% to $3,308.29 an ounce

–With assistance from Sujata Rao and John Viljoen.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
A person who knows little likes to talk, and one who knows much mostly keeps silent.  This is because a person who knows little thinks that everything he knows is important, and wants to tell everyone.  A person who knows much also knows that there is much more he doesn’t know.  That’s why he speaks only when it is necessary to speak, and when he is not asked questions, he keeps his silence. –Jean-Jacques Rousseau, 1712-1778.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com