Category: Newsletters

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday
September 23, 1846: The planet Neptune was discovered by German astronomer Johann Gottfried Galle.  Go to article »

9/23/2019: The British travel company, Thomas Cook Group, declares bankruptcy, leaving employees without jobs and 600,000 customers stranded abroad.  Hotels throughout the world are stuck with £338 million in unpaid bills.  Independent travel agent Hays Travel acquires 555 former Thomas Cook travel stores in the UK.

Bruce Springsteen, b. 1949.
Ray Charles, b. 1930
Euripides, b.480 BC.

China discovers rare lunar crystal and nuclear power source on near side of the moon: Researchers in China have discovered a new type of crystal nestled among the volcanic debris of the near side of the moon, as well as a potential fuel source that could help revolutionize the production of clean and efficient energy on Earth.  The small, transparent crystal — named Changesite-(Y), after the Chinese moon goddess Chang’e — is more than a billion years old and is as wide as a human hair, according to Global Times, a Chinese state-run news site. In early September, researchers with the International Mineralogical Association confirmed that the tiny moon crystal has a never-before-seen composition and is related to other minerals found only on the moon or in meteors.  Full Story: Live Science (9/23)

DeepMind scientists win $3 million ‘Breakthrough Prize’ for AI that predicts every protein’s structure: Scientists from Google DeepMind have been awarded a $3 million prize for developing an artificial intelligence (AI) system that has predicted how nearly every known protein folds into its 3D shape.  One of this year’s Breakthrough Prizes in Life Sciences went to Demis Hassabis, the co-founder and CEO of DeepMind, which created the protein-predicting program known as AlphaFold, and John Jumper, a senior staff research scientist at DeepMind, the Breakthrough Prize Foundation announced Thursday (Sept. 22).  Full Story: Live Science (9/22)

Mysterious ‘nightmare’ shark with unnerving human-like smile dragged up from the deep sea: A bizarre deep-sea shark with bulging eyes and an unnerving, human-like smile was recently dragged up from the depths off the coast of Australia. Shark experts are uncertain exactly which species the creepy-looking creature might belong to, adding to the mystery surrounding the unusual specimen.  A deep-sea angler, who goes by the online name Trapman Bermagui, reeled in the mysterious shark from a depth of around 2,130 feet (650 meters) off the coast of New South Wales in Australia. The fisher later shared a snap of the deep-sea specimen on Sept. 12 on Facebook. The image shows off the dead shark’s rough sandpaper-like skin, large pointed snout, large bulging eyes and exposed pearly whites.  Full Story: Live Science (9/23)

Inside the $1 billion sale of Paul Allen’s art collection.

Highlights from London Fashion Week.  After the death of Queen Elizabeth II, the UK went into national mourning. But emerging brands made sure the show went on, with many designers honoring the late monarch in creative ways.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Locals watch as increasing wind pushes waves towards the south shore before the arrival of Hurricane Fiona
Photograph: Nicola Muirhead/Reuters

French street artist and photographer JR directs the unfurling of his giant photograph of five-year-old Ukrainian refugee Valeriia from the city of Lviv
Photograph: Alberto Pizzoli/AFP/Getty Images

A worker passes See Monster, a decommissioned North Sea offshore platform that has been transformed into a public art installation at the Tropicana on the seafront
Photograph: Geoff Caddick/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 23, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	29590.41	-486.27
		-1.62%
S&P 500	3693.23	-64.76
		-1.72%
NASDAQ	10867.93	-198.87
		-1.80%
TSX	18480.98	-521.70
		-2.75%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27153.83	-159.30
		-0.58%
HANG SENG	17933.27	-214.68
		-1.18%
SENSEX	58098.92	-1020.80
		-1.73%
FTSE 100*	7018.60	-140.92
		-1.97%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.072		3.122
CND. 30 Year Bond		2.966		3.006
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.6846		3.7098
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.6059		3.6385

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7355	0.7414
US $	1.3596	1.3488
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3180	0.7587
US  $	0.9694	1.0316

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1671.85	1671.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	79.24	83.94

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1998, Wall Street’s top investment banks completed marathon negotiations for a $3.65 billion bailout of Long-Term Capital Management. The hedge fund had lost nearly $2 billion in a single month when the mathematical models designed by two Nobel laureates failed
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fourth  day, dropping 2.7%, or 521.7 to 18,480.98 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 3.1% on June 16.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11  sectors lost; 226 of 236 shares fell, while 9 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 7.0%.
Bombardier Inc. had the largest drop, falling 14.0%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss two times. The next day, it declined after both occasions
* This year, the index fell 13%, heading for the worst year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index fell 2%
* This month, the index fell 4.4%
* So far this week, the index fell 4.7%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended June 17 * The index declined 9.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 16.8% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 1.7% above its low on July 14, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 on a trailing basis and 11.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.04t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 16.61% compared with 15.11% in the previous session and the average of 14.02% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -224.3988| -6.5| 0/38
Financials | -114.4176| -1.9| 1/28
Materials | -97.9172| -4.5| 0/51
Industrials | -33.7435| -1.4| 1/26
Communication Services| -12.5243| -1.3| 0/7
Consumer Discretionary| -12.3042| -1.8| 0/14
Utilities | -11.5196| -1.1| 2/13
Real Estate | -9.2271| -1.9| 0/22
Consumer Staples | -4.9481| -0.6| 0/11
Health Care | -0.7184| -0.9| 2/5
Information Technology| 0.0156| 0.0| 3/11
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -37.2900| -7.0| 27.6| 21.7
Suncor Energy | -35.8300| -9.3| -28.9| 16.7
Enbridge | -33.6000| -4.5| 14.9| 4.5
Dye & Durham | 0.2490| 5.0| 12.7| -71.8
Canopy Growth | 0.3320| 4.4| 7.2| -65.3
Shopify | 4.7390| 1.5| -8.6| -77.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A selloff in the riskier corners of the market deepened as the UK’s plan to lift its economy fueled concerns about heightened inflation that could lead to higher rates, adding to fears of a global recession.
It was a sea of red across equity trading desks, with the S&P 500 briefly breaching its June closing low before paring losses.
Chartists looking for signs of where the rout might ease had identified that as a potential area for support.
Yet the lack of full-blown capitulation may be an indication the drawdown isn’t over.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. slashed its target for US stocks, warning that a dramatic upward shift in the outlook for rates will weigh on valuations.
As risk-off sentiment took hold, Wall Street’s “fear gauge” soared toward a three-month high, with the Cboe Volatility Index momentarily topping 30.
Throughout the year, the US equity benchmark has hit near-term lows when the VIX was above that level, according to DataTrek Research.
Trading volume in the S&P 500 was above the average of the past month, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.
A surge in the greenback to a fresh record swept aside global currencies.
The euro slid to its weakest since 2002, while sterling hit its lowest in 37 years — with former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers saying that “naive” UK policies may create the circumstances for the pound to sink past parity with the dollar.
Treasury 10-year yields fell after earlier topping 3.8%.
“It appears that traders and investors are going to throw in the towel on this week in what feels like ‘the sky is falling’ type of event,” said Kenny Polcari, chief strategist at SlateStone Wealth. “Once everyone stops saying that they ‘think a recession is coming’ and accepts the fact that it is here already – then the psyche will change.”
Liz Truss’s new UK government delivered the most sweeping tax cuts since 1972 at a time when the Bank of England is  struggling to rein in inflation, which is running at almost five times its target.
The plunge in gilts means that investors are now betting the central bank boosts its benchmark lending rate by a full point to 3.25% in November, which would be the sharpest increase since 1989.
Amid heightened fears over a hard economic landing, commodities got hammered across the board.
West Texas Intermediate tumbled below $80 a barrel for the first time since January and was set for a fourth week of declines.
Not even gold — a haven asset — was able to gain due to a surging dollar, and tumbled to the lowest level in two years.
China’s yuan extended losses to a level closest to the weak end of its allowed trading band since a shock currency devaluation in 2015.
With a hawkish Federal Reserve set to sustain the dollar at high levels, analysts say there’s only so much Beijing could do to shore up its currency at a time of economic difficulties.
The greenback’s strength has been unrelenting and will also exert a “meaningful drag” on corporate earnings — serving as a key headwind for stocks, said David Rosenberg, founder of his namesake research firm.
KKR & Co. sees potential trouble ahead, including a mild recession next year, with the Fed narrowly focused on driving up unemployment to tame inflation.
The US labor shortage is so severe that it’s possible the Fed’s tightening doesn’t work, wrote Henry McVey, chief investment officer of the firm’s balance sheet.
“This is a more draconian outcome than corporate profits falling,” he noted, “because it will encourage the Fed to tighten even further.”
Investors are flocking to cash and shunning almost every other asset class as they turn the most pessimistic since the global financial crisis, according to Bank of America Corp.
Investor sentiment is “unquestionably” the worst it’s been since the crisis of 2008, with losses in government bonds being the highest since 1920, strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.
“It’s a realization that interest rates are going to continue to rise here and that that’s going to put pressure on earnings,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. “Valuations are still a little high even though they’ve come down, interest rates still have a lot further to go up and what impact that will have on the global economy – are we headed for a sharper recession than the recession everybody expected? I think it’s a combination of all of that, it’s not good news.”
Stocks are indeed still far from being obvious bargains.
At the low in June, the S&P 500 was trading at 18 times earnings, a multiple that surpassed trough valuations seen in all previous  11 bear cycles, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
In other words, should equities recover from here, this bear-market bottom will have been the most expensive since the 1950s.
Bleak sentiment is often considered a contrarian indicator for the US stock market, under the belief that extreme pessimism may signal brighter times ahead.
But history suggests that equity losses may accelerate even further from here before the current bear market ends, according to Ned Davis Research.
The firm’s Crowd Sentiment Poll has been in an extreme pessimism zone since April 11, or 112 consecutive trading days that mark the third-longest streak of gloom since the data began in 1995.
Over the subsequent few months following those periods of extreme pessimistic sentiment, equity gains were fleeting, with negative median returns three and six months after the 100-day mark.
In another threat to stocks, different iterations of the so-called Fed model, which compares bond yields to stock earnings’ yields, show equities are least appealing relative to corporate bonds and Treasuries since 2009 and early 2010,respectively.
This signal is getting attention among investors, who can now know look to other markets for similar or better returns.
“The next question is when and how far do earnings estimates decline for 2023,” said Ellen Hazen, chief market strategist and portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management. “Earnings estimates for next year are too high, they really have not come down, and as that happens you’re going to have further equity pain because in addition to the multiple coming down via the yield mechanism, the earnings you’re applying that multiple to are going to come down as well.”
As slower growth and tighter financial conditions start catching up to companies, a wave of downgrades will come for the US investment-grade corporate bond market.
That’s according to strategists at Barclays Plc, who say companies are facing margin pressure thanks to high inventories, supply chain issues, and a strong dollar.
The firm expects the average monthly volume of downgrades to increase to $180 billion of bonds over the next half year.
The current monthly average is closer to $40 billion.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6%
* The MSCI World index fell 2.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 1.3%
* The euro fell 1.5% to $0.9693
* The British pound fell 3.5% to $1.0868
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 143.30 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $18,823.63
* Ether fell 2.4% to $1,292.77
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 3.68%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.02%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 33 basis points to 3.83%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.3% to $79.06 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.7% to $1,651.80 an ounce
–With assistance from Abigail Moses and Vildana Hajric.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Behavior is the mirror in which everyone shows their image. –Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe, 1749-1832.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Friday Eve & the official first day of autumn.

On Sept. 22, 1862, President Abraham Lincoln issued the preliminary Emancipation Proclamation, declaring all slaves in rebel states should be free as of Jan. 1, 1863. Go to article »
1994: “Friends” a TV sitcom created by David Crane and Marta Kauffman debuts on NBC and continues for 10 seasons.  The series finale aired  on May 6, 2004, and was watched by around 52.5 million American viewers, making it the fifth most watched series finale n television history and the most watched television episode of the 2000.

Tired: Guitar Hero. Wired: Trombone Champ.

We still don’t know if Neanderthals made art.

Ghostly rings of Neptune shine in new James Webb Telescope images:  When it comes to planetary rings, Saturn is the undisputed poster child. But now a new contender enters the, er, ring — courtesy of a stunning new image taken by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).  In the new picture, released today (Sept. 21) by the European Space Agency (ESA), our solar system’s eighth planet Neptune shimmers like a glorious crystal ball, with a stack of gauzy rings wrapped magically around it.  Full Story: Live Science (9/22)

3,000-year-old gold funeral mask unearthed in noble’s tomb in China:  A gold funeral mask, thought to be more than 3,000 years old, has been discovered in the tomb of an ancient noble in the city of Zhengzhou in central China.  It’s one of the oldest gold objects ever found in central China, as contemporary treasures tend to be crafted from bronze and jade, raising questions about possible links to other early Chinese states where gold was more common.  Full Story: Live Science (9/22)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A standoff between police officers and demonstrators in St Petersburg
Photograph: Olga Maltseva/AFP/Getty Images

Alberta Whittle is a Barbadian-Scottish multimedia artist, researcher and curator. ‘One of the main reasons I wanted to make films was because I thought there weren’t enough images of people who looked like me – Caribbean people or Black people. I was searching for those images and I felt as if I wasn’t seeing them often enough … I needed to make them. My work is very much about resistance, but also questioning the idea of British identity’
Photograph: Cristiano Corte

Come Home Again by Es Devlin, commissioned by Cartier, outside Tate Modern. The illuminated sculpture is a 1/3-scale replica of the dome of St Paul’s Cathedral and filled with Devlin’s drawings of the 243 species of moths, birds, beetles, wildflowers, fish and fungi at risk of extinction. During the day a soundscape of voices speaks the names of the 243 species and as night falls a London choir sings evensong. It will be there from 22 September to 1 October
Photograph: Guy Bell/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for September 22, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30076.68	-107.10
		-0.35%
S&P 500	3757.99	-31.94
		-0.84%
NASDAQ	11066.80	-153.39
		-1.37%
TSX	19002.68	-181.86
		-0.95%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27153.83	-159.30
		-0.58%
HANG SENG	18147.95	-296.67
		-1.61%
SENSEX	59119.72	-337.06
		-0.57%
FTSE 100*	7159.52	-78.12
		-1.08%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.122		3.037
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.006		2.944
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.7098		3.5318
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.6385		3.5023

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7414	0.7426
US $	1.3488	1.3466
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3269	0.7536
US  $	0.9838	1.0165

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1671.75	1664.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	83.94	83.44

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1985, finance ministers and central bankers from the U.S., Japan, Germany, France and the U.K. met at the Plaza Hotel in New York with a big goal: reversing an overvalued dollar. At the time, the greenback had mounted a blistering rally—sound familiar?—and the U.S. trade deficit had widened. In what became known as the Plaza Accord, the officials agreed to intervene in currency markets. Ultimately, it worked: The dollar fell in the following years, while the Japanese yen climbed.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.9%, or 181.86 to 19,002.68 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since July 26.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.3%.
Canopy Growth Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.1%.
Today, 201 of 236 shares fell, while 35 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 10%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 0.7%
* This month, the index fell 1.7%
* So far this week, the index fell 2%
* The index declined 6.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 14.5% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 4.6% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.9% in the past 5 days and fell 4.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 on a trailing basis and 11.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.07t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.11% compared with 15.06% in the previous session and the average of 13.88% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -44.2944| -0.7| 1/28
Energy | -41.0127| -1.2| 1/37
Information Technology | -31.3574| -3.1| 1/13
Industrials | -28.7283| -1.1| 2/25
Real Estate | -11.0928| -2.3| 0/22
Consumer Staples | -9.3326| -1.2| 3/8
Consumer Discretionary | -9.1444| -1.4| 2/12
Materials | -8.0183| -0.4| 12/39
Utilities | -6.1848| -0.6| 7/9
Health Care | -1.8701| -2.3| 2/5
Communication Services | 9.1702| 1.0| 4/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -21.0000| -6.3| 5.2| -77.9
Brookfield Asset Management | -9.5400| -1.6| 0.5| -19.5
Couche-Tard | -8.0780| -2.7| 14.0| 3.4
Telus | 3.4170| 1.2| -39.6| -3.2
Teck Resources | 3.4530| 2.6| -21.1| 17.4
BCE | 3.8300| 1.0| -24.9| -5.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasury yields hit multiyear highs and stocks fell as a parade of central banks joined the Federal Reserve in boosting rates to curb scorching levels of inflation at the expense of economic growth.
Ten-year US yields hovered near 3.7%, the highest since February 2011.
The S&P 500 closed at the lowest since June, with some Wall Street voices predicting the gauge may soon test its June bottom that stands about 2.5% below current levels.
FedEx Corp. climbed after saying it expects to save up to $2.7 billion as a result of cost-cutting steps.
The dollar remained near its all-time high, fueled by hawkish Fed policy and investors in search of haven.
The Swiss franc slumped as a central bank hike proved not enough to satisfy expectations, while Japan propped up its currency for the first time since 1998.
The Fed gave its clearest signal yet that it’s willing to tolerate a recession as the necessary trade-off for regaining control of inflation, with officials forecasting a further 1.25 percentage points of tightening before year-end.
Norway, Britain and South Africa also followed with hikes of their own as officials rush to get to grips with rampant price increases.
“We see this new even-higher-for-longer rate path as associated with a substantially greater higher likelihood of a hard landing, and so not just unambiguously hawkish but unambiguously bad for risk,” said Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI.
The S&P 500 could be poised for more downside after breaking through a rare technical indicator, according to Berenberg strategists including Jonathan Stubbs.
It has traded below its 200-day moving average for over 100 sessions — a streak that was previously breached only during the tech bubble and the global financial crisis in the past 30 years.
In both of those instances, the gauge posted most of its losses after surpassing that level, with the index declining by a further 50% in 2000-2003 and 40% in 2008-2009 before troughing, they said.
Evercore’s chief equity and quantitative strategist Julian Emanuel cut his S&P 500 year-end projection to 3,975 from 4,200 and expects a “full retest” of the June low in the weeks ahead.
The target cut accounts for a rising probability of a recession following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s warning that the rate-hike process won’t be “painless” for the labor and housing markets.
“The bad news is we are still in one of the weakest seasonal windows of the year, especially in a mid-term year,” said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG. “The good news is that it quickly reverses by mid-October. We think we test or break the June lows before then, which should set up a better entry point for a year-end rally.”
Dennis DeBusschere at 22V Research expects markets to remain volatile while maintaining his neutral, range-bound stance for stocks.
“It’s tough to get long until we get signs of slower underlying demand growth, but tail risk is limited by already tighter financial conditions, lower PEs, and higher implied vol,” he wrote.
The environment isn’t suitable for strong directional positioning on overall indexes, according to Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management. However, he advises against retreating to the sidelines, “especially given the drag on cash from high inflation and the challenge of timing a return to markets without missing out on rebounds.”
“Instead, we stay invested but also selective, and focus our preferences on the themes of defensives, income, value, diversification, and security,” he added.

Here are some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $0.9839
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.1257
* The Japanese yen rose 1.2% to 142.35 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 17 basis points to 3.70%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 1.96%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 18 basis points to 3.50%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $83.49 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,680.60 an ounce
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Robert Brand, Michael Msika, Isabelle Lee and Peyton Forte.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

I believe that unarmed truth and unconditional love will have the final word in reality. 
That is why right, temporarily defeated, is stronger than evil triumphant. -Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., 1929-1968.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
September 21. 2021: McDonald’s announces plans to “drastically” reduce plastic in its Happy Meals by 2025 (these meals make it one of the largest toy distributors in the world).  It claimed that the benefits wrought by this change would be equivalent to close to 700,000 people ditching the use of plastic for a year.
September 21, 1873: Panic swept the New York Stock Exchange in the wake of railroad bond defaults and bank failures. Go to article »

Leonard Cohen, b. 1934.
Stephen King, b. 1947.
Bill Murray, b. 1950.

Tim McGraw falls off stage during concert.  The country music icon lost his balance and fell into his own crowd — but then turned it into a special moment to bond with his fans.

‘SNL’ announces first three guest hosts of the season.  Live from New York… it’s Saturday Night! These celebrities are locked in as guest hosts for the show’s upcoming 48th season.

Researchers in China have cloned a wild Arctic wolf.  Some scientists are now hoping this controversial technology can be used to help save other species from extinction.

7,000-year-old structure near Prague is older than Stonehenge, Egyptian pyramids:  Archaeologists digging near Prague have discovered the remains of a Stone Age structure that’s older than Stonehenge and even the Egyptian pyramids: an enigmatic complex known as a roundel.  Nearly 7,000 years ago during the late Neolithic, or New Stone Age, a local farming community may have gathered in this circular building, although its true purpose is unknown.  Full Story: Live Science (9/21)

3,300-year-old pink granite sarcophagus of Egyptian ‘pyramid keeper’ found at Saqqara:  Archaeologists in Egypt have unearthed the 3,300-year-old stone sarcophagus of an official whose mummified body was stolen by grave robbers long ago.   The coffin, carved from pink granite, was crafted for an official named “Ptah-im-wea,” who, according to the hieroglyphs inscribed on it, lived during the time of Ramesses II (reign circa 1279 B.C. to 1213 B.C.) and managed a temple that Ramesses II had built at Thebes (modern-day Luxor).  Full Story: Live Science (9/21)

Scientists blasted plastic with lasers and turned it into tiny diamonds and a new type of water:  Using ultrapowerful lasers, scientists have blasted cheap plastic and transformed it into tiny “nanodiamonds” — and, in doing so, confirmed the existence of an exotic new type of water.   The findings could potentially reveal the existence of diamond rain on ice giants in our solar system and explain why these frigid worlds have such strange magnetic fields. The laser-blasting technique could also lead to more Earthly applications.  Full Story: Live Science (9/21)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

More than 1,500 birds from Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore sit in cages during an annual songbird competition
Photograph: Madaree Tohlala/AFP/Getty Images

Drinkers fill a huge tent at the annual Oktoberfest beer festival at the Theresienwiese fairground, which is taking place for the first time since Covid
Photograph: Christof Stache/AFP/Getty Images

Harald Wenske crosses a river in a Spreewald barge fully loaded with pumpkins grown in his field
Photograph: Patrick Pleul/AP
Market Closes for September 21, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30183.78	-522.45
		-1.70%
S&P 500	3789.93	-66.00
		-1.71%
NASDAQ	11220.19	-204.86
		-1.79%
TSX	19184.54	-184.15
		-0.95%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27313.13	-375.29
		-1.36%
HANG SENG	18444.62	-336.80
		-1.79%
SENSEX	59456.78	-262.96
		-0.44%
FTSE 100*	7237.64	+44.98
		+0.63%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.037		3.102
CND. 30 Year Bond		2.944		3.025
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.5318		3.5630
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.5023		3.5707

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7426	0.7482
US $	1.3466	1.3365
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3247	0.7549
US  $	0.9838	1.0165

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1664.15	1664.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	83.44	84.45

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1931, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 6.2% to an intraday low, prompting NYSE officials to debate closing the market. Executives opted for a temporary ban on short-selling, and stocks clawed back much of that loss. A day earlier, the Bank of England had abandoned the gold standard.
Canada
By Geoffrey Morgan
(Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell in tandem with their US counterparts Wednesday following the US Federal Reserve’s 75 basis point interest-rate hike.
The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 1%, or 184.15 to 19,184.54 in Toronto.
The index declined to the lowest closing level since Sept. 6.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2%. Canopy Growth Corp. had the largest drop, falling 4.6%.
Today, 166 of 236 shares fell, while 68 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 9.6%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 1.7%
* This month, the index fell 0.8%
* The index declined 5.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 13.6% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 5.6% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.7% in the past 5 days and fell 4.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 on a trailing basis and 11.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.1t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 15.06% compared with 15.64% in the previous session and the average of 13.82% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -72.0358| -1.2| 7/22
Energy | -56.9684| -1.6| 0/37
Industrials | -24.8527| -1.0| 3/24
Consumer Staples | -11.7402| -1.5| 3/8
Consumer Discretionary | -8.8510| -1.3| 3/11
Materials | -3.7574| -0.2| 28/22
Information Technology | -3.6044| -0.4| 5/9
Utilities | -1.6456| -0.2| 7/9
Health Care | -1.2980| -1.6| 1/6
Communication Services | -0.0578| 0.0| 2/5
Real Estate | 0.6382| 0.1| 9/13
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -21.6500| -2.0| -27.2| -11.3
RBC | -15.7500| -1.3| -20.4| -6.4
Canadian Natural Resources | -13.0800| -2.4| -0.2| 32.8
Brookfield Infrastructure | 1.0100| 0.6| -3.8| 7.5
Franco-Nevada | 1.5040| 0.7| -10.5| -8.7
Barrick Gold | 3.6570| 1.5| -35.9| -15.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks saw some wild swings, with traders overwhelmed by the many headlines that followed the Federal Reserve decision and ended up signaling at least one thing: policy will remain aggressively tight — making the odds of a soft landing look increasingly elusive.
The S&P 500 ended near session lows, pushing its slide from a January record to more than 20%.
The gauge whipsawed in the aftermath of the Fed announcement, climbing as much as 1.3% at one point.
Treasury two-year yields topped 4%, piercing that mark for the first time since 2007.
The dollar rallied.
Jerome Powell vowed officials would crush inflation after they raised interest rates by 75 basis points for a third straight time and signaled even more aggressive hikes ahead than investors had expected.
Powell said his main message was that officials were “strongly resolved” to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% goal and added that “we will keep at it until the job is done.”
The phrase invoked the title of former Fed chief Paul Volcker’s memoir “Keeping at It.”
“Jerome Powell almost channeled his inner Paul Volcker today, talking about the forceful and rapid steps the Fed has taken, and is likely to continue taking, as it attempts to stamp out painful inflation pressures and ward off an even worse scenario later down the line,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors. “With the new rate projections, the Fed is engineering a hard landing — a soft landing is almost out of the question.”
Officials forecast that rates would reach 4.4% by the end of this year and 4.6% in 2023, a more hawkish shift in their so-called dot plot than expected.
That implies a fourth-straight 75-basis-point hike could be on the table for the next gathering in November — about a week before the US midterm elections.

More Comments:
* “We do think that markets, and consequently the economy, will become ‘Fed up’ with too much tightening, if growth (and employment) are tangibly slowing alongside of these tighter policy moves,” said Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income.
* “Today’s Fed action, combined with ongoing rollercoaster-like market volatility, underscore the unease of investors amid the magnified economic and market uncertainties driven by high inflation, corporate earnings warnings, geopolitical concerns and other factors weighing heavily on both Wall Street and Main Street,” said Greg Bassuk, chief executive officer at AXS Investments.
* “They have a brief window to act aggressively, and they seem eager to use it,” said Jan Szilagyi, co-founder of Toggle AI, an investment research firm.
* “The first set of Fed releases from the September meeting are unambiguously hawkish,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore. “Thevmacro projections signal increased risk of a harder landing.”
* “The Fed was late to recognize inflation, late to start raising interest rates, and late to start unwinding bond purchases,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. “They’ve been playing catch-up ever since. And they’re
not done yet.”

Key events this week:
* Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, Thursday
* The Bank of England interest rate decision, Thursday
* US Conference Board leading index, initial jobless claims, Thursday

Here are some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.7%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7%
* The euro fell 1.2% to $0.9847
* The British pound fell 0.9% to $1.1281
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 143.88 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 3.51%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 1.89%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 3.31%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $83.34 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,681.40 an ounce
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Men make war to get attention.  All killing is an expression of self-hate.  –Alice Walker, b. 1944.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
September 20, 1873: Panic swept the New York Stock Exchange in the wake of railroad bond defaults and bank failures.  Go to article »

Hong Kong’s colorful new ‘pocket parks’ are revitalizing public spaces.  These eye-catching park designs are not what you’d expect to see in urban Hong Kong. Take a look here.

Brad Pitt makes his debut as a sculptor in Finland exhibition.  A-list actor. Guitarist. Dad of six. And now, sculptor. Brad Pitt is a busy man

The Hurricane Fiona fallout continues.
Would you wait in line to eat live sea urchin?
Twenty quadrillion ants go marching. (h/t Atika Valbrun)
I am very intimidated by Japan’s “Wagyu Olympics.”

Can the James Webb Space Telescope really see the past?  On July 12, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) made history by releasing its debut image: a jewel-filled photo that’s been touted as the deepest photo of the universe ever taken.  Besides looking farther across space than any observatory before it, the James Webb Space Telescope has another trick up its mirrors: It can look further back in time than any other telescope, observing distant stars and galaxies as they appeared 13.5 billion years ago, not long after the beginning of the universe as we know it.   How is this possible? How can a machine look “back in time”? It’s not magic; it’s just the nature of light.
Full Story: Live Science (9/19)

3,300-year-old cave ‘frozen in time’ from reign of Ramesses II uncovered in Israel:  Archaeologists in Israel have discovered an “exceptional” cave that ancient people sealed 3,300 years ago, hiding grave goods and possibly human burials within it, just yards from a beach south of Tel Aviv.   Use of the cave dates to a time when the ancient Egyptians, led by Ramesses II — who reigned from about 1279 B.C. to 1213 B.C. — ruled what is now Israel, the Israel Antiquities Authority (IAA) said in a statement. During the time of Ramesses II, Egypt controlled an empire that stretched from modern-day Sudan to Syria.  Full Story: Live Science (9/20)

9 million told to evacuate after super typhoon Nanmadol slams southern Japan, heads toward Tokyo:  Officials in Japan have ordered 9 million people to evacuate as the powerful super typhoon Nanmadol pummels the island nation with winds gusting up to 145 mph (234 km/h) and bears down on Tokyo, home to nearly 14 million inhabitants.  Dozens of people were injured and two people have died since the storm made landfall on Sunday morning (Sept. 18) on Kyushu, Japan’s southernmost large island, and then on Monday (Sept. 19), Nanmadol slammed into Honshu, the largest of Japan’s islands, BBC News reported.  Full Story: Live Science (9/19

Hurricane Fiona hits the Dominican Republic after wiping out Puerto Rico’s power grid:  Hurricane Fiona struck the eastern coast of the Dominican Republic on Monday (Sept. 19) after the Category 1 storm had caused widespread flooding, landslides and a territory-wide blackout in Puerto Rico the day before.  Fiona strengthened from a tropical storm to a hurricane on Sunday morning (Sept. 18), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned that the approaching cyclone would likely bring “torrential rains and mudslides” to both Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.  Full Story: Live Science (9/19)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

British artist Thomas Houseago, centre, poses with US actor Brad Pitt, centre right and Australian musician Nick Cave, prior to the opening of their joint exhibition
Photograph: Jussi Koivunen/AP

Katherine Crockett attends the 10th edition of ‘Diner en Blanc’ at Brookfield Place in Lower Manhattan. The all-white pop-up, the location of which is revealed hours before the event, draws over 5,500 guests who dress in head-to-toe white attire for an under-the-stars dining experience.
Photograph: Timothy A Clary/AFP/Getty Images

An archaeologist holds a vessel that contained opium in the 14th century BC when it was used by Canaanites as an offering for the dead, according to a study by the Israel Antiquities Authority, Tel Aviv University and the Weizmann Institute of Science
Photograph: Ronen Zvulun/Reuters
Market Closes for September 20, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30706.23	-313.45
		-1.01%
S&P 500	3855.93	-43.96
		-1.13%
NASDAQ	11425.05	-109.97
		-0.95%
TSX	19368.69	-193.69
		-0.99%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27688.42	+120.77
		+0.44%
HANG SENG	18781.42	+215.45
		+1.16%
SENSEX	59719.74	+578.51
		+0.98%
FTSE 100*	7192.66	-44.02
		-0.61%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.102		3.146
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.025		3.050
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.5630		3.4944
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.5707		3.5168

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7482	0.7544
US $	1.3365	1.3255
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3326	0.7504
US  $	0.9970	1.0030

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1664.65	1664.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	84.45	85.73

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1873, the stock market crashed and the NYSE Board of Governors closed the exchange for the first time in history. The cause of the plunge: A third of all money on loan from New York banks had gone into buying stocks on margin
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1% at 19,368.69 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Sept. 7 after the previous session’s increase of 0.9%.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as all sectors lost; 199 of 236 shares fell, while 32 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.2%.
Interfor Corp. had the largest drop, falling 6.6%.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 8.7%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 2.7%
* This month, the index was little changed
* The index declined 3.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12.8% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 6.6% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.4% in the past 5 days and fell 3.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 12 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.13t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.64% compared with 15.42% in the previous session and the average of 13.77% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -55.7715| -0.9| 1/28
Information Technology | -27.2738| -2.6| 3/10
Materials | -24.5963| -1.1| 5/45
Industrials | -16.2244| -0.6| 6/21
Real Estate | -14.8936| -3.0| 0/22
Energy | -13.4282| -0.4| 11/24
Consumer Staples | -11.1773| -1.4| 1/10
Utilities | -10.1380| -1.0| 1/15
Communication Services | -9.8897| -1.0| 1/6
Consumer Discretionary | -8.4678| -1.2| 3/11
Health Care | -1.8379| -2.2| 0/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -18.5500| -5.2| -19.2| -76.3
TD Bank | -7.0920| -0.7| -22.8| -9.5
Brookfield Asset Management | -7.0810| -1.1| 11.9| -17.0
Brookfield Infrastructure | 1.3570| 0.8| 129.2| 6.9
Suncor Energy | 3.3260| 0.9| -38.6| 31.8
Nutrien | 4.4160| 1.0| -17.0| 26.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks came under pressure as Treasury yields hit multiyear highs, with traders bracing for a hawkish Federal Reserve that’s expected to boost rates to levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis.
A slide in equities pushed the S&P 500 more than 10% below its Aug. 16 high — which marked the peak of rally from its June lows.
About 93% of its companies were down Tuesday, with all major groups in the red. Two-year US yields approached 4%.
Investors also kept an eye on geopolitical developments amid news that the Kremlin was moving hastily to stage sham votes on annexing the regions of Ukraine its forces still control.
Fed officials are about to put numbers on the “pain” they’ve been warning of when they publish new projections for the economy Wednesday.
They could show a substantial rise in rates and unemployment ahead as the estimated price tag for reducing inflation.
Officials are also widely expected to boost rates by 75 basis points — and a few market observers say a full-point hike might also be on the table.
To Charlie McElligott, cross-asset strategist at Nomura Securities International, the market is underpricing the possibility that the Fed could opt for a bigger move of 100 basis points.
In addition to last week’s inflation surprise, he cited the fact that both the labor market and wages remained “hot” since Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech at the end of August.
Only two of the 96 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are currently predicting a full-point move this month.
“The idea that the Fed will raise rates and immediately cut again in mid-2023 should now be put back into storage alongside the beach chairs,” said Gargi Chaudhuri, head of iShares investment strategy for the Americas at BlackRock Inc. “Recent data have confirmed the necessity of the Fed’s tough stance. We believe we are entering a new regime of structurally higher volatility and slowing growth.”
For traders grappling with a hawkish Fed and a looming recession, the next shoe to drop will be on corporate earnings, said a BlackRock co-chief investment officer.
“What we’re concerned about increasingly is earnings downgrades and we haven’t had that yet,” said Nigel Bolton of BlackRock Fundamental Equities, which comprises active stock strategies. “The tone of management teams is already starting to change and we’re going to see pretty substantial reductions for 2023,” he said.
Professional speculators are refusing to surrender to a punishing equity market prone to seemingly endless volatility — boosting bullish and bearish positions at the fastest rate in five years.
As the S&P 500 plunged last week, hedge funds snapped up single stocks while betting against the broad market with products like exchange-traded funds, data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage show.
The appetite for protection against an index-wide drop in the S&P 500 in the next three months has been falling together with the stock market, pushing the put-to-call ratio to a fresh one-year low, data compiled by Credit Suisse Group AG’s derivatives strategists show.
The opposite has been happening on  a single-stock level: A similar ratio jumped to a one-year high as company-specific announcements have been triggering outsized stock reactions.
The risk-off sentiment on Tuesday also dragged down cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin sinking below $19,000.
The US needs to either regulate the existing stable coin market or create its own Fed-backed digital currency to preserve the dominance of the dollar, a panel of experts said at a House hearing Tuesday.
Key events this week:
* Federal Reserve decision, followed by a news conference with Chair Jerome Powell, Wednesday
* Big-bank CEOs testify before US Congress in a pair of hearings on Wednesday and Thursday
* US existing home sales, Wednesday
* EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, Thursday
* The Bank of England interest rate decision, Thursday
* US Conference Board leading index, initial jobless claims, Thursday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.1% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $0.9978
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.1386
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 143.66 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 3.56%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 12 basis points to 1.93%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 15 basis points to 3.29%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $84.45 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,673.80 an ounce
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee.
Have  a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

It is a waste of time to be angry about my disability.  One has to get on with life and I haven’t done badly. 
People won’t have time for you if you are always angry or complaining. –Stephen Hawking, 1942-2018.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
September 19, 2008: Struggling to stave off financial catastrophe, the Bush administration asked Congress for $700 billion to buy up troubled mortgage-related assets from U.S. financial institutions.  Go to article »

1970: Michael Eavis hosts the first ever Glastonbury Festival in Pilton, Somerset, England.

Oktoberfest returns after two-year hiatus. The world’s largest beer festival kicked off Saturday in Munich, Germany, with thousands of people joining the festivities. Look at all the lederhosen…

Hoard of Islamic era gold and silver coins found behind Egyptian temple: Archaeologists in Egypt have uncovered a nearly 1,000-year-old cache of gold and silver coins behind a temple in Esna, a city located along the Nile River.  The hoard, which was discovered by a team of researchers from Egypt’s Supreme Council for Archaeology, includes coins minted throughout different parts of the Islamic era, which began in A.D. 610, when Muhammad received his first revelation, and lasted until approximately the 13th century.  Full Story: Live Science (9/16)

In a 1st, scientists use designer immune cells to send an autoimmune disease into remission: Five patients with hard-to-treat lupus entered remission after scientists tweaked their immune cells using a technique normally used to treat cancer. After the one-time therapy, all five patients with the autoimmune disease stopped their standard treatments and haven’t had a relapse.  This treatment, known as chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy, needs to be tested in larger groups of lupus patients before it can be approved for widespread use. But if the results hold up in larger trials, the therapy could someday offer relief to people with moderate to severe lupus.
Full Story: Live Science (9/17)

Simon Armitage’s elegant poem for the Queen’s death, his elegy inspired by one of her favourite flowers:

Floral Tribute
Evening will come, however determined the late afternoon,
Limes and oaks in their last green flush, pearled in September mist.
I have conjured a lily to light these hours, a token of thanks,
Zones and auras of soft glare framing the brilliant globes.
A promise made and kept for life – that was your gift –
Because of which, here is a gift in return, glovewort to some,
Each shining bonnet guarded by stern lance-like leaves.
The country loaded its whole self into your slender hands,
Hands that can rest, now, relieved of a century’s weight.

Evening has come. Rain on the black lochs and dark Munros.
Lily of the Valley, a namesake almost, a favourite flower
Interlaced with your famous bouquets, the restrained
Zeal and forceful grace of its lanterns, each inflorescence
A silent bell disguising a singular voice. A blurred new day
Breaks uncrowned on remote peaks and public parks, and
Everything turns on these luminous petals and deep roots,
This lily that thrives between spire and tree, whose brightness
Holds and glows beyond the life and border of its bloom.

-by Simon Armitage
PHOTOS OF THE  DAY

The coffin of Queen Elizabeth II, draped in the royal standard at Westminster Abbey, is surrounded by members of her family during the state funeral service
Photograph: David Levene/The Guardian

Emma, the monarch’s fell pony, stands as the ceremonial procession of the coffin of Queen Elizabeth II arrives at Windsor Castle
Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA

The royal corgis await the cortege
Photograph: Peter Nicholls/Reuters
Market Closes for September 19, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	31019.68	+197.26
		+0.64%
S&P 500	3899.89	+26.56
		+0.69%
NASDAQ	11535.02	+86.62
		+0.76%
TSX	19562.38	+176.50
		+0.91%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27567.65	-308.26
		-1.11%
HANG SENG	18565.97	-195.72
		-1.04%
SENSEX	59141.23	+300.44
		+0.51%
FTSE 100*	7236.68	-45.39
		-0.62%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.146		3.139
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.050		3.072
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.4944		3.4494
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.5168		3.5131

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7544	0.7537
US $	1.3255	1.3268
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3284	0.7528
US  $	1.0024	0.9976

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1664.65	1689.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.73	85.11

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1974, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury William E. Simon predicted that interest rates, then around 8%, would soon fall. The Dow leapt 3.4% on the good news. Over the next seven years, interest rates proceeded to double.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.9% at 19,562.38 in Toronto. The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.9%.
Nutrien Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.2%. Kinross Gold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 10.8%.
Today, 181 of 236 shares rose, while 52 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 7.8%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 3.7%
* The index declined 4.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 11.9% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 7.7% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.1% in the past 5 days and fell 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 on a trailing basis and 12 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.1t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.42% compared with 15.17% in the previous session and the average of 13.67% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 53.5438| 2.5| 48/3
Financials | 42.7855| 0.7| 26/2
Energy | 26.6400| 0.8| 31/7
Industrials | 23.0536| 0.9| 23/4
Information Technology | 16.1962| 1.6| 9/5
Consumer Discretionary | 9.5464| 1.4| 11/3
Utilities | 6.9306| 0.7| 12/4
Real Estate | 0.4540| 0.1| 11/10
Health Care | 0.3814| 0.5| 3/4
Communication Services | -0.5209| -0.1| 2/4
Consumer Staples | -2.4957| -0.3| 5/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move|% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Nutrien | 17.7800| 4.2| 8.2| 25.1
Shopify | 11.9300| 3.5| -34.9| -75.0
RBC | 11.1400| 0.9| -17.2| -4.9
Brookfield Renewable Partners | -0.5970| -0.8| -35.3| 11.6
Rogers Communications | -1.9060| -1.4| -35.1| -7.6
Couche-Tard | -2.2770| -0.7| -31.7| 10.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks pushed higher in the final hour of New York trading, with a rally in megacaps like Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. driving a rebound that followed the worst weekly rout since mid-June.
Major equity benchmarks had a tough time finding direction Monday as traders geared for another super-sized US rate hike amid fears on whether the Federal Reserve could overtighten and raise the odds of a hard landing.
Treasury 10-year yields hovered near 3.5% while the two-year rate, which is more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, hit the highest since 2007.
Traders are betting the Fed will hike by 75 basis points Wednesday, signal rates are heading above 4% and will then pause.
The long hold strategy is rooted in the idea the central bank would avoid the disastrous stop-go policy of the 1970s that allowed inflation to get out of hand.
While a case can be made for going bigger, a shock full-point hike could add to recession jitters, further depressing investor sentiment.
“While more hawkish central bank pricing and the resulting increase in real yields is weighing on risk assets, we also believe that any downside from here would be limited,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic, said. “Robust earnings, low investor positioning and well anchored long-term inflation expectations should mitigate any downside in risk assets from here.”
To Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, a full-point hike would “unnerve Wall Street” as it would imply a central bank “overreacting to the data rather than sticking to its game plan.”
Following the previous seven rate increases of that magnitude, the US equity benchmark fell four times each over one-, three-, and six-month periods, he added.
Meantime, Ed Yardeni, president of his namesake research firm who nailed the market bottom in 1982 and 2009, sees the Fed boosting rates by 100 basis points this month, with Chair Jerome Powell and the central bank’s economic projections looking hawkish.
He noted that could cause the S&P 500 to retest its June 16 low of 3,666.77, almost 6% below current levels.
While a policy surprise could certainly move markets, the Fed’s revised forecasts for where the policy rate will ultimately come to rest and how long it’s likely to stay at that level will be equally important.
Swap contracts that forecast rates over the next two years now peak at 4.5% in March 2023 — a full point higher than was expected after the last meeting in July.
“Due to current negative indicators including high inflation and the Fed’s upcoming rate announcement, global economic growth concerns and earnings expectations, we expect to see a continued negative pattern in the near-term,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. “It will not take much good news to light a fire under the market, but we don’t expect that good news to come in the next few weeks.”
In a sign of how severe the equity beatdown has been, the S&P 500 has been trading below a key technical level for the longest stretch since the global financial crisis.
Its long-term trend has turned “sharply lower recently,” and the index has closed below its 200-day moving average for 110 trading sessions, the longest streak since the bear markets of 2008-2009 and 2000-2002, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
During the five-week period that started in mid-August and ended Sept. 7, long-only institutional investors sold $51.2 billion worth of US-traded stocks — roughly a quarter of what they dumped in the prior 31 weeks of this year, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis.
The data don’t include last week, when a surprising inflation print stoked concerns of a Fed tightening that’s more aggressive than expected.
“Volatility is expected to remain heightened through the remainder of this year at a minimum,” said Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors. “Until there is consistent improvement from inflation, timing the peak in Fed rate hikes is challenging. We do not suggest selling into the volatility. While we do not rule out a testing of the June S&P 500 low, we would look at it as a potential buying opportunity and focus on areas that are reflecting the potential downside in economic growth and earnings.”
Every major bottom in the last 15 years hasn’t culminated until the Cboe VIX Index started trading 10 volatility points higher than the VIX futures two months from now, signaling a front-month inversion of the volatility curve, data compiled by BTIG LLC show.
That’s yet to happen in this year’s rout.
Even as the VIX curve shifted higher and became flatter, it’s still in its usual upward-sloping shape, meaning the here-and-now cost for protection is lower than several months out.
Bond issuers also seem cautious about the market now.
Four potential high-grade borrowers looked at selling bonds Monday, but ultimately opted to stand down amid a volatile start to trading.
Supply is now running well below forecasts for September, with rapidly rising yields derailing some issuers’ plans.
In a time-tested harbinger of an economic downturn, short-term US rates have exceeded yields on longer maturities for months.
The MLIV Pulse survey, which drew 737 responses, showed that the bulk of contributors expect a deeper inversion.
Some see it reaching levels last seen in the early 1980s, when Paul Volcker ratcheted up borrowing costs to break the back of hyperinflation.
The majority of the MLIV survey’s contributors say it’s best to bet on dollar gains, and 44% prefer to sell stocks.
Key events this week:
* US housing starts, Tuesday
* EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
* US existing home sales, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve decision, followed by a news conference with Chair Jerome Powell, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, Thursday
* The Bank of England interest rate decision, Thursday
* US Conference Board leading index, initial jobless claims, Thursday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0024
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.1436
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 143.17 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 3.49%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 1.80%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $85.46 a barrel
* Gold futures were little changed
–With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Cecile Gutscher, Vildana Hajric, Isabelle Lee and Peyton Forte.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Time brings all things to pass. –Aeschylus,  525 BC-456 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
September 16, 1620: Mayflower Day – pilgrims deported from England.  They set sail for America, where they founded Plymouth, Massachusetts, after 41 men, including William Bradford and Myles Standish, signed the Mayflower Compact.
1810: Mexican Independence Day.
1908: General Motors was formed in Flint, Mich., by William Durant. Go to article »

Oktoberfest is back, but the beer’s dear.

You have to wake up very early to have a day like Ferris Bueller …

Michael Jordan’s ‘Last Dance’ jersey fetches a record $10.1 million.  The record sale price now makes it the most expensive basketball jersey ever to sell at auction.

France unveils high-speed trains of the future.  This swanky new train, operating at a maximum speed of nearly 220 mph, will premiere on the Paris rail network next year.

Blazing comet tail is whipped by solar winds in astonishing astronomy photo:  An ethereal image of Comet Leonard traveling against the solar wind has taken the top prize in the Royal Observatory Greenwich’s Astronomy Photographer of the Year contest.  Austrian photographer Gerald Rhemann caught the view of the comet and its sweeping tail on Christmas Day, 2021 from Namibia. Rhemann’s image reveals a ghostly veil of gas from the comet being caught and swept away by solar wind.  Full Story: Live Science (9/16)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

People queue to visit the Palace of Westminster, where the body of Queen Elizabeth II is lying in state
Photograph: Carl Court/Getty Images

Fireworks light up the sky in celebration of the 212th anniversary of the independence of Mexico.
Photograph: Arturo Hernández/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Life returns to ground burnt during the recent wildfires in south-west France
Photograph: Philippe Lopez/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 16, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30822.42	-139.40
		-0.45%
S&P 500	3873.33	-28.02
		-0.72%
NASDAQ	11448.40	-103.96
		-0.90%
TSX	19385.88	-174.28
		-0.89%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27567.65	-308.26
		-1.11%
HANG SENG	18761.69	-168.69
		-0.89%
SENSEX	58840.79	-1093.22
		-1.82%
FTSE 100*	7236.68	-45.39
		-0.62%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.139		3.150
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.072		3.048
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.4494		3.4451
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.5131		3.4707

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7537	0.7559
US $	1.3268	1.3229
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3288	0.7526
US  $	1.0014	0.9986

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1689.10	1703.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.11	85.10

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1920, a bomb went off outside of J.P. Morgan’s Wall Street headquarters. A horse-drawn wagon exploded, killing more than 30 and injuring hundreds. The case was never solved.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.9%, or 174.28 to 19,385.88 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Sept. 7.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.9%.
Cargojet Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.7%.
Today, 163 of 237 shares fell, while 73 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 8.7%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 2.8%
* So far this week, the index fell 2%
* The index declined 5.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 12.7% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 6.7% above its low on July 14, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 12 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.12t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.17% compared with 14.96% in the previous session and the average of 13.62% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -50.7944| -1.4| 6/32
Industrials | -46.6491| -1.9| 3/25
Financials | -44.9794| -0.7| 2/27
Information Technology | -30.3578| -2.9| 1/13
Materials | -5.0030| -0.2| 27/23
Real Estate | -2.7153| -0.5| 8/15
Utilities | -2.2737| -0.2| 7/9
Health Care | -2.1140| -2.8| 2/5
Consumer Discretionary | -2.0645| -0.3| 4/9
Consumer Staples | 4.4314| 0.5| 6/5
Communication Services | 8.2401| 0.9| 7/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -20.7800| -5.9| 107.6| -75.8
Canadian Pacific | -18.7800| -2.9| 310.8| 7.0
RBC | -14.2600| -1.1| 175.8| -5.8
Agnico Eagle Mines | 3.1730| 1.9| 43.9| -17.7
Barrick Gold | 3.9250| 1.6| 14.6| -15.5
BCE | 4.4550| 1.2| 102.4| -5.3
US
By Stephen Kirkland
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell, capping the worst week since the market hit its low for the year in June, as FedEx Corp.’s warning added to growing concern over outsized Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes.
The S&P 500 fell for a third day this week, down close to 5% for the period.
Dip buyers emerged in afternoon trading, with gains in some big tech names including Nvidia Corp. and Intel Corp.
FedEx plunged more than 20% after the package-delivery giant withdrew its earnings forecast, citing weakening business conditions.
Equity markets took an abrupt pivot lower this week after hotter-than-expected inflation data spurred traders to ratchet up wagers for rate hikes and sparked the worst one-day stock selloff in two years.
Since then swaps continue to price in a 75 basis-point hike when the Fed meets next week — with some wagers leaning toward a full point — and policy-sensitive two-year yields have climbed this week to the highest level since 2007, deepening the curve inversion that’s seen as a recession signal.
“The US is probably at the gate of a recession of an unknown depth — equities see it as very limited, credit markets as contained while the 2-10 slope expects a more dire situation,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Asset Management. “A significant layer of macro uncertainty now dominates markets.”
On the technical side, the S&P 500’s pivot below a key Fibonacci retracement of June-August rally has Win Thin, head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, suggesting stocks could revisit June lows.
“It really reflects the ongoing repricing of risk assets in a world of tighter and tighter liquidity,” he said. “Equities, EM, risk all benefited from years of zero interest rates and now we are seeing the other side of that trade.”
FedEx’s warning comes as companies across industries start to paint a grimmer picture of the economy.
Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett said an earnings recession will likely drive US stocks to new lows, well below current levels.
Traders briefly priced the Fed’s key policy rate peaking at 4.5% in March this week as the central bank escalates its effort to contain inflation.
That expected peak was up by a full percentage point since the Fed’s last policy meeting in July.
A gauge of dollar strength was little changed, with greenback trading mixed against major peers.
A University of Michigan survey showed inflation expectations dipped, with consumers expecting prices will climb at an annual rate of 2.8% over the next five to 10 years, the lowest since July 2021, according to the survey.
They see costs rising 4.6% over the next year, the lowest since last September.
Europe’s benchmark share gauge fell for a fourth day of losses, with mail and parcel delivery companies taking a hit after FedEx’s warning.
The UK’s benchmark outperformed as the British pound sank to its weakest level against the dollar since 1985. 
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0013
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.1424
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 142.91 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.45%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 1.76%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.14%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $85.30 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,683.80 an ounce
–With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Robert Brand, Isabelle Lee and Emily Graffeo.
Have a lovely weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Heaven will solve our problems, but not, I think, by showing us subtle reconciliations between all our apparently contradictory notions.
The notions will all be knocked from under our feet.  We shall see that there never was any problem.  And, more than once, that
impression which I can’t describe except by saying that it’s like sound of a chuckle in the darkness.  The sense that some
shattering and disarming simplicity is the real answer. –C.S. Lewis, 1898-1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday eve.
September 15, 1997: google.com is registered as a domain name.
“We do lots of stuff.  The only way you are going to heave success is to have lots of failures first.” -Sergey Brin, Co-founder of Google.

September 15, 2008: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy protection – the largest in U.S. history.  Go to article »

$100 million: That’s the annual profits of Patagonia, the private company that sells outdoor apparel and equipment. On Wednesday, Patagonia’s founder announced he is transferring ownership of the company into two entities that will ensure 98% of the company’s annual profits will be used to combat climate change.

Patagonia’s owner has cut out the middle man between profit and charity. — Matt Levine.

Global warming may end San Francisco’s fog.

Climate ‘points of no return’ may be much closer than we thought: Climate tipping points — the “points of no return” past which key components of Earth’s climate will begin to irreversibly break down — could be triggered by much lower temperatures than scientists previously thought, with some tipping points potentially already reached. There are also many more potential tipping points than scientists previously identified, according to a new study.
In climatology, a tipping point is defined as a rise in global temperature past which a localized climate system, or “tipping element” — such as the Amazon rainforest or the Greenland ice sheet — starts to irreversibly decline. Once a tipping point has been reached, that tipping element will experience runaway effects that essentially doom it forever, even if global temperatures retreat below the tipping point. Full Story: Live Science (9/15)

Early-medieval woman was buried with a rare item: a metal folding chair:  Coins, weaponry, jewels and other valuables are often found in the ancient burials of prominent people, but archaeologists recently discovered a truly rare grave good: a metal folding chair.  Constructed of an iron frame, the medieval chair measures approximately 28 by 18 inches (70 by 45 centimeters) when folded and was found by a team of archaeologists from the Bavarian State Office for Monument Protection (BLfD) last month in Endsee, a village in southeastern Germany.  Full Story: Live Science (9/15)

A new study reveals how air pollution can foster lung and other cancers. — Lisa Jarvis.

Should you take a multivitamin?  The answer is yes, according to a new study. Taking a daily multivitamin may improve cognition in older adults, especially those with a history of cardiovascular disease.

Ranking the world’s best business schools.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Ohio Democrat Joyce Beatty poses next to the unveiled official portrait of the late congressman Elijah Cummings during a ceremony on Capitol Hill
Photograph: José Luis Magaña/AP

A mother poses for photographs with her daughter in a cosmos flower field
Photograph: Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters

A woman walks along the seaside at dawn on a beach in the Basque Country in northern Spain
Photograph: Javier Etxezarreta/EPA
Market Closes for September 15, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	30961.82	-173.27
		-0.56%
S&P 500	3901.35	-44.66
		-1.13%
NASDAQ	11552.36	-167.32
		-1.43%
TSX	19557.56	-168.58
		-0.85%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27875.91	+57.29
		+0.21%
HANG SENG	18930.38	+83.28
		+0.44%
SENSEX	59934.01	-412.96
		-0.68%
FTSE 100*	7282.07	+4.77
		+0.07%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.150		3.160
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.048		3.097
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.4451		3.4004
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.4707		3.4564

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7559	0.7594
US $	1.3229	1.3168
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3224	0.7562
US  $	0.9997	1.0003

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1703.90	1704.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.10	88.48

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1890, Baring Brothers, one of England’s leading investment banks, disclosed that loans to the likes of Argentina and Chile had gone bad and that the firm would go bust unless the Bank of England came to its aid. The bank stepped in, rounding up a rescue syndicate of other investment banks and assumed £28.5 million worth of Barings’ liabilities.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.8% at 19,560.16 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.4%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 176 of 237 shares fell, while 59 rose.
Nutrien Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.7%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest drop, falling 6.5%.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 7.8%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 3.7%
* So far this week, the index fell 1.1%
* The index declined 5.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 11.9% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 7.7% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.8% in the past 5 days and fell 3.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 on a trailing basis and 12.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.15t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.96% compared with 14.73% in the previous session and the average of 13.59% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -71.1906| -1.9| 2/36
Materials | -59.7303| -2.7| 2/48
Industrials | -16.5739| -0.7| 7/21
Utilities | -14.5731| -1.4| 4/12
Consumer Staples | -8.0174| -1.0| 4/7
Consumer Discretionary | -6.9293| -1.0| 1/12
Information Technology | -2.4261| -0.2| 5/9
Real Estate | -0.7468| -0.1| 9/13
Health Care | -0.2446| -0.3| 4/3
Communication Services | 6.4470| 0.7| 4/3
Financials | 8.0001| 0.1| 17/12
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Nutrien | -12.2000| -2.7| -1.5| 23.6
Suncor Energy | -11.2100| -2.7| -61.2| 30.3
Brookfield Asset Management | -9.1650| -1.4| 29.6| -15.5
Bank of Montreal | 4.3050| 0.7| 14.9| -6.1
TD Bank | 5.0160| 0.5| 6.3| -9.2
RBC | 9.0830| 0.7| -9.9| -4.7
US
By Stephen Kirkland
(Bloomberg) — US stocks fell and Treasury yields climbed after the latest batch of economic data did little to dial back expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
The S&P 500 extended declines to close at the lowest level since July 18. It ended just above 3,900, a level that has become a battle line for bulls and bears in recent months, acting as a support in mid-May and then keeping a lid on
advances briefly in June and July.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperformed major indexes Thursday, with growth related stocks under pressure.
Adobe Inc. tumbled after agreeing to buy software design startup Figma Inc. in a deal valued at about $20 billion.
Treasury yields rose across the board, with the policy-sensitive two-year rate up as much as eight basis points at 3.87%, the highest since 2007 after the latest data painted a mixed picture for the economy.
Swaps traders are currently pricing in a 75 basis-point hike when the Fed meets next week, with some wagers appearing for a full-point move.
Bets ratcheted higher after a hot consumer inflation reading Tuesday, which also sparked the biggest selloff in stocks in two years.
“Data in hand mean the Fed is most likely to raise the fed funds target three-quarters of a percent at its decision next week,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. “A hike of a full percentage point is the month’s dark horse candidate.”
Traders expect the Fed fund rate to peak at close to 4.5% next year, from the current range of 2.25% and 2.5% and Ray Dalio said a rise to about that level could sink stock prices around 20% based on the present value discount effect.
The continued rise in rate-sensitive Treasuries deepened the curve inversion, a harbinger for a looming recession.
The curve from five to 30 years inverted by as much as 20 basis points in US trading Thursday, a day after the two- to 30-year spread also became the most negative in more than two decades.
Mortgage rates in the US topped 6% for the first time in nearly 14 years.
Data Thursday showed applications for US unemployment insurance fell for a fifth straight week, suggesting demand for workers remains healthy.
Retail sales indicated spending on goods is moderating.
Other data showed factory production rose slightly in August while total industrial production, including mining and utilities, fell.
University of Michigan data Friday will be parsed for clues on inflation expectations.
“This is a market waiting for the next catalyst,” Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index, said by phone. “What we saw in the selloff on Tuesday is the repricing of expectations of the Fed. Until we really hear from
the Fed we are not going to get a very clear direction.”
The offshore yuan weakened past 7 per dollar for the first time since July 2020.
The yen traded around 143.4 per dollar, away from just under the closely-watched 145 level Wednesday on signs the Bank of Japan was preparing an intervention.
Oil fell after the Department of Energy said its plan to restock US emergency oil reserves doesn’t include a trigger price and deliveries likely won’t happen until after fiscal year 2023.
Natural gas futures sold off in US trading after railroads and unions reached a tentative deal to avert a strike that threatened to disrupt domestic coal deliveries.
Gold fell to the lowest since April 2020 amid expectations of more aggressive interest-rate hikes by the Fed.

Here are some key events to watch this week:
* China home sales, retail sales, industrial production, fixed assets, surveyed jobless rate, Friday
* Euro area CPI, Friday
* University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $0.9996
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.1470
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 143.45 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.45%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 1.77%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 3.17%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.7% to $85.20 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 2.2% to $1,672.10 an ounce
–With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Michael Msika, Abigail Moses, Robert Brand, Peyton Forte, Isabelle Lee and Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Truth alone will endure; all the rest will be swept away before the tide of time. –Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
September 14, 2022: great fire of Moscow begins as Napoleon approaches the city and retreating Russians burn it – fire continues to burn for five days.
2000: Chase Manhattan agreed to buy J.P. Morgan for more than $35 billion, creating the third largest financial company in the U.S. Go to article »

‘The Crown’ viewership surged on Netflix after Queen Elizabeth’s death.  Following the death of Queen Elizabeth II, Netflix viewers tuned into the show about her life.

Ferrari’s first four-door car is here.  It looks like an SUV… but the company insists people shouldn’t call it that.

New James Webb telescope images reveal the chaotic beauty of Orion’s sword: How do you know you’re looking at Orion’s belt? It’s just a waist of space.  Dad jokes aside, Orion is one of the best known and most studied constellations in the Milky Way. With its nearest stars located just a few hundred light-years from Earth, the constellation is home to some of the largest and brightest stars in the sky (including the infamous red star Betelgeuse) and a thriving nursery of fiery, newborn stars ripe for studying. Now, using the powerful new James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), researchers have captured the sharpest and most detailed images of Orion in history.
Full Story: Live Science (9/13)

Vanished arm of Nile helped ancient Egyptians transport pyramids materials:  When the ancient Egyptians built the pyramids of Giza around 4,500 years ago, the Nile River had an arm — one that has long since vanished — with high water levels that helped laborers ship materials to their construction site, a new study finds.  The discovery builds on previous archaeological and historical findings that the Nile had an extra arm flowing by the pyramids. But now, by analyzing ancient pollen samples taken from earthen cores, it’s clear that “the former waterscapes and higher river levels” gave the Giza Pyramid’s builders a leg up, a team of researchers wrote in a paper published Aug. 29 in the journal the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.  Full Story: Live Science (9/14)

Uranus will vanish during ‘lunar occultation’ Wednesday night:  Depending on where in the world you’ll be Wednesday night (Sept. 14), you may be able to see Uranus disappear. (Don’t worry; it’ll be back again a few hours later.)  On Wednesday, the sixth planet from the sun will appear to pass directly behind Earth’s moon, going completely out of sight for three and a half hours. The great disappearing act, also known as the lunar occultation of Uranus, begins around 4:41 p.m. ET (2041 GMT) and ends by 8:11 p.m. ET (0011 GMT on Sept. 15), according to In-the-sky.org. However, only viewers in Europe, northern Africa and western Asia will be at the exact right angle to see the illusion work.  Full Story: Live Science (9/13)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The Queen’s coffin travels down Horse Guards Parade
Photograph: Andy Hall/The Observer

The Imperial State Crown lies on top of the Queen’s coffin
Photograph: Tom Jenkins/WPA/Getty Images

The coffin is laid in Westminster Hall.
Photograph: Linda Nylind/The Guardian
Market Closes for September 14, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	31135.09	+30.12
		+0.10%
S&P 500	3946.01	+13.32
		+0.34%
NASDAQ	11719.68	+86.11
		+0.74%
TSX	19726.14	+80.74
		+0.41%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	27818.62	-796.01
		-2.78%
HANG SENG	18847.10	-479.76
		-2.48%
SENSEX	60346.97	-224.11
		-0.37%
FTSE 100*	7277.30	-108.56
		-1.47%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.160	3.196
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.097	3.150
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.4004	3.4099
U.S. 30 Year Bond	3.4564	3.4913

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7594	0.7591
US $	1.3168	1.3174
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3139	0.7611
US  $	0.9979	1.0021

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1704.85	1726.40
Oil
WTI Crude Future	88.48	87.31

Market Commentary:
On this day in 2008, U.K. bank Barclays withdrew as the last potential buyer for Lehman Brothers, setting the stage for the bank’s collapse.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 19,726.14 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.7%.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.4%.
New Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.7%.
Today, 130 of 237 shares rose, while 105 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 7.1%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 4.6%
* The index declined 4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 11.2% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 8.6% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.5% in the past 5 days and fell 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 on a trailing basis and 12.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.14t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.73% compared with 14.70% in the previous session and the average of 13.53% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 73.3206| 2.0| 37/1
Materials | 15.0552| 0.7| 30/21
Information Technology | 11.6900| 1.1| 10/4
Financials | 10.0855| 0.2| 16/13
Health Care | 1.4946| 2.0| 5/2
Utilities | 0.7340| 0.1| 7/9
Consumer Discretionary | -1.8843| -0.3| 5/7
Consumer Staples | -2.3673| -0.3| 6/4
Real Estate | -5.6611| -1.1| 2/21
Industrials | -8.7324| -0.3| 10/18
Communication Services | -12.9915| -1.4| 2/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 13.6100| 2.4| 56.6| 41.1
Nutrien | 10.5700| 2.4| -18.2| 27.0
Shopify | 9.7620| 2.9| -23.7| -74.5
Telus | -3.0190| -1.1| -40.8| -4.2
Canadian National | -3.2370| -0.5| -3.4| 1.6
Canadian Pacific | -3.5260| -0.5| 6.8| 11.7
US
By Stephen Kirkland
(Bloomberg) — US stocks rebounded in late trading a day after hot inflation sparked the biggest rout in more than two years.
The dollar fell, while short-end Treasury yields edged higher.
After swinging between gains and losses throughout the day, dip buyers emerged to send the S&P 500 into the green at the close.
Trading volume was about 20% above the 30-day average for the time of day, as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.
The benchmark sank more than 4% Tuesday following a shock consumer-price figure that prompted investors to ratchet up wagers for interest-rate increases.
Those jitters eased Wednesday after data showed producer prices fell for a second month.
Retail sales due Thursday and University of Michigan readings Friday will be parsed for clues on the strength of the economy and inflation expectations.
Swaps traders are now pricing in a hike of three-quarters of a percentage point when the Fed meets next week, with some wagers appearing for a full-point move.
The two-year Treasury yield, the most sensitive to policy changes, rose two basis points after jumping as much as 22 basis points Tuesday, pushing it more than 30 basis points above the 10-year rate.
That deepened the curve inversion in what is generally a recession warning.
“Investors are trying to figure out if yesterday changes anything, and that is a tug of war,” Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, said. “Everyone is waiting to see the next inflation data point and importantly hear what the Fed thinks next week. Friday’s University of Michigan is important from the inflation expectation outlook.”
While the magnitude of Tuesday’s rout was impressive, the S&P 500 only reversed most of the gains made in the previous four sessions.
The lack of a surge in the VIX index — known as the “fear gauge” — suggests that the selloff was a recalibration of those expectations rather than panic selling.
“The fact that the market was not able to break above its morning highs must be disappointing for the bulls,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. “During the summer selloffs, the market always seemed to be able to bounce back quickly. Since it hasn’t been able to do that today, some short-term traders seem to be backing away from the market a bit more.”
More commentary:
* “History tells us that whenever we have had a 4% one-day decline, we usually see a bounce of about 1% the day after,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, told Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance. “But then we sort of trade sideways for the next month before resuming an uptrend three months down the road. Investors just have to hold onto their hats right now.”
* “The biggest and growing downside risk for the market is increasing recession risk as the Fed aggressively tightens into a slowing economy,” Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, said in a note. “On the other side, there is at least one partial offset: Investor expectations are low and already braced for bad news.”
* “Financial conditions are biased to tighten, but PEs are much lower now vs previous financial conditions tightening periods,” Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research, wrote. “Investors are likely discounting much weaker EPS, but those negative outcomes are largely priced in. A much more aggressive Fed does increase the odds of a harder economic landing though.”
* “People with a plan don’t panic — so in days like yesterday where volatility is at extremes, good investors and good advisors are looking for opportunity,” Tom Mantione, private wealth advisor at UBS Financial Services, said on Bloomberg Radio, noting Wednesday’s PPI report was “constructive.” “I kind of think the Fed may be overdoing it here a little bit. Maybe we need to let this play out a bit.”

In corporate news, Verizon Communications Inc. fell after signaling another weak quarter in terms of new subscribers while Twilio Inc. rose after the maker of customer communication and marketing software said it will cut about 11% of jobs and restructure the company.
California sued Amazon.com Inc., saying the company forces third-party merchants to agree to policies that lead to “artificially high prices” for consumers.
Natural gas futures surged the most among major US-traded commodities as hot weather forecasts and a looming rail strike added to concern about tight supplies ahead of winter.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index slipped almost 1%, extending Tuesday’s 1.6% drop.
Utilities were the among the worst-performing sectors as the European Commission considers plans to contain the energy crisis, which may include revenue caps.
The yen pulled back from a slide toward the key 145 level versus the dollar after a Nikkei report that the Bank of Japan conducted a so-called rate check with traders to see the price of the currency against the greenback.
The finance minister warned he wouldn’t rule out any response if current trends continued. The country’s 10-year bond yield rose to 0.25%, the upper end of the central bank’s policy band.

Here are some key events to watch this week:
* US business inventories, empire manufacturing, retail sales, initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
* China home sales, retail sales, industrial production, fixed assets, surveyed jobless rate, Friday
* Euro area CPI, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $0.9979
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.1540
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 143.19 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 1.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 3.13%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.7% to $88.78 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.7% to $1,705.60 an ounce
–With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Matt Turner, Allegra Catelli, Denitsa Tsekova, Robert Brand, John McCorry, Isabelle Lee and Peyton Forte.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Go often to the house of thy friend, for weeds choke the unused path. –Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1803-1882.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
September 13, 1959: The Soviet space probe Luna 2 became the first man-made object to reach the moon as it crashed onto the lunar surface.  Go to article »
1899: The first recorded automobile fatality in the US takes place.  Henry H. Bliss was struck by a taxi cab while crossing the street in New York City.  He died the next day due to his injuries.
1814: Star-Spangled Banner inspired by the attack on Fort McHenry.

Ferrari is selling a $390,000 SUV.

RIP,  Jean-Luc Godard.

Massive ‘bullseye’ in Australian desert is evidence of an ancient reef: A strange doughnut-shaped mound in a desert in southern Australia recently made a surprise appearance in high-resolution satellite images.
The odd formation, which from space resembles a big bullseye, is likely the remains of an ancient reef, made by microbes and left over from a time when a vast ocean covered the now-arid environment, new research suggests.
Full Story: Live Science (9/13)

Did Nero really fiddle while Rome burned? The Roman emperor Nero ranks among the most infamous rulers of the Roman Empire for supposedly fiddling while Rome burned. But did that really happen? And does Nero really deserve his bad reputation?   As with all stories, we have to consider the source.  Full Story: Live Science (9/10)

Dining at 1,820 feet, in South Korea’s highest restaurant.  Your dinner table is ready… and it’s a window seat on the 123rd floor. What do you think about the view?

150-million-year-old dinosaur skeleton will be auctioned in Paris.  A paleontology expert said fossil collectors have been asking for “a dinosaur that can fit my living room.” Well, here it is — colossal price tag and all.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The top of One World Trade Center appears in the clouds in New York
Photograph: Justin Lane/EPA

People visit a lantern show during the mid-autumn festival in China’s southern Guangdong province
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Members of the Hillsborough Court Guard wait for King Charles III and Camilla, the Queen Consort, to arrive at Hillsborough Castle
Photograph: Mark Marlow/EPA
Market Closes for September 13, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	31104.97	-1276.37
		-3.94%
S&P 500	3932.69	-177.72
		-4.32%
NASDAQ	11633.57	-632.84
		-5.16%
TSX	19645.40	-341.83
		-1.71%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	28614.63	+72.52
		+0.25%
HANG SENG	19326.86	-35.39
		-0.18%
SENSEX	60571.08	+455.95
		+0.76%
FTSE 100*	7385.86	-87.17
		-1.17%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.196	3.141
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.150	3.164
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.4099	3.3539
U.S. 30 Year Bond	3.4913	3.5030

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7591	0.7701
US $	1.3174	1.2985
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3132	0.7615
US  $	0.9967	1.0033

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1726.40	1713.40
Oil
WTI Crude Future	87.31	87.78

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1982, Forbes published its first American rich list. Of the 13 billionaires, 10 derived their fortunes from oil. Shipping magnate Daniel K. Ludwig topped the pile at over $2 billion.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.7% at 19,645.40 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 3.1% on June 16 and follows the previous session’s increase of 1.1%.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as all sectors lost; 214 of 237 shares fell, while 22 rose.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.2%.
Canopy Growth Corp. had the largest drop, falling 8.1%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss nine times. The next day, it declined seven times for an average 0.6% and advanced twice for an average 0.3%
* This year, the index fell 7.4%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 4.2%
* The index declined 4.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 11.6% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 8.1% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.9% in the past 5 days and fell 2.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 on a trailing basis and 12.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.19t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.70% compared with 14.01% in the previous session and the average of 13.48% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -116.4243| -1.8| 2/27
Materials | -47.8208| -2.1| 2/49
Information Technology| -39.1287| -3.6| 0/14
Industrials | -31.6741| -1.2| 4/24
Energy | -31.3486| -0.9| 9/28
Communication Services| -21.2825| -2.2| 0/7
Consumer Discretionary| -17.2454| -2.5| 0/13
Real Estate | -15.2323| -2.9| 0/23
Consumer Staples | -13.6052| -1.6| 0/11
Utilities | -6.0184| -0.6| 4/12
Health Care | -2.0656| -2.7| 1/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -24.7000| -2.2| -28.9| -10.2
Shopify | -20.0000| -5.6| 214.0| -75.2
RBC | -19.9200| -1.6| -30.4| -5.5
Waste Connections | 0.5850| 0.2| 9.6| 11.7
Brookfield Renewable Partners | 0.6830| 1.0| 6.6| 9.6
ARC Resources | 0.7520| 0.9| 45.5| 62.8
US
By Stephen Kirkland
(Bloomberg) — A broad-based selloff sent equities to their worst day in more than two years after hotter-than-expected inflation data fueled bets on a jumbo hike by the Federal Reserve next week.
Treasury yields surged and the dollar gained.
Across the board selling sent the S&P 500 down more than 4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 losses surpassed 5% as yield-sensitive stocks took the biggest hit.
Both benchmarks are poised for their worst one-day routs since 2020.
Swaps traders are now fully pricing in a rate increase of three-quarters of a percentage point, with wagers rising for a similar move in November and policy rates ultimately reaching around 4.3% early in 2023.
The two-year Treasury yield, the most sensitive to policy changes, jumped as much as 22 basis points, pushing it more than 30 basis points above the 10-year rate and deepening an inversion in what is generally a recession warning.
The consumer price index increased 0.1% from July, after no change in the prior month, Labor Department data showed Tuesday.
From a year earlier, prices climbed 8.3%, a slight deceleration but still more than the median estimate of 8.1%.
So-called core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components,  also topped forecasts.
“Overall, today was a surprising day against the trend of what had appeared to be some moderation across most indicators of growth and pricing pressure, so the Fed’s job is clearly not finished,” Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest asset manager, wrote. “We think the Fed will pause the rate hiking cycle potentially at year-end, but maybe now the central bank will have to wait a bit longer to do that after having reached a restrictive policy stance.”
More comments:
* “Headline inflation has peaked but, in a clear sign that the need to continue hiking rates is undiminished, core CPI is once again on the rise, confirming the very sticky nature of the US inflation problem,” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors, said in a note. “In fact, 70% of the CPI basket is seeing an annualized price rise of more than 4% month-on-month. Until the Fed can tame that beast, there is simply no room for a discussion on pivots or pauses.”
* “The CPI report was an unequivocal negative for equity markets,” wrote Matt Peron, director of research at Janus Henderson Investors. “The hotter than expected report means we will get continued pressure from Fed policy via rate hikes. It also pushes back any ‘Fed pivot’ that the markets were hopeful for in the near term.”
* “Core cost-of-living prices falling when labor markets are tight with nominal wages rising rapidly is not going to produce the soft-landing fairy tale,” Steven Blitz, chief US economist at TS Lombard, said. “The Fed had better odds of rolling a hard eight than engineering a soft landing. There is no Fed pivot to prevent one, there is no turning back from the path they are on.”
* “Although today’s announcement shows that inflation remains historically high, there may be signs that the pressure of inflation is abating,” said Richard Flynn, managing director of Charles Schwab UK. “Company inventories are rising relative to sales, global economic growth has weakened, and the U.S. dollar is strong — all indications that price hikes may begin to slow soon. That being said, inflation is still far-above the Fed’s target.”
* “I’d buy this dip,” said Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities. “There are bigger issues facing us, but this seems like an algo driven response to the data, chasing out recent weak longs, so I’m a buyer of stocks and bonds here.”

On the corporate front, Twitter Inc. shareholders approved Elon Musk’s proposed $44 billion buyout, paving the way for a trial next month.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. says deal fees may fall by half in the third quarter, and Citigroup Inc. warned trading revenue in the third quarter will likely drop as a slowdown in its business dedicated to securitized products crimps fixed-
income trading revenue.
The latest inflation data came amid debate about the outlook for the global economy and how that will affect markets.
While stocks rallied in recent days, with the S&P 500 completing its biggest four-day surge since June on Monday, Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey showed the number of investors expecting a recession has reached the highest since May 2020.
A gauge of the dollar climbed more than 1%, advancing against all of its Group-of-10 counterparts.
Bitcoin fell 10%.
Here are some key events to watch this week:
* UK CPI, Wednesday
* US PPI, Wednesday
* US business inventories, empire manufacturing, retail sales, initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday * China home sales, retail sales, industrial production, fixed assets, surveyed jobless rate, Friday
* Euro area CPI, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 4.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.9%
* The MSCI World index fell 3.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 1.2%
* The euro fell 1.5% to $0.9973
* The British pound fell 1.6% to $1.1500
* The Japanese yen fell 1.2% to 144.49 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.42%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 1.73%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 3.17%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3% to $87.55 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.6% to $1,712.80 an ounce
–With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani, Brett Miller, Tony Jordan, Peyton Forte, Robert Brand and Isabelle Lee.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Anyone who stops learning is old, whether at twenty or eighty.  Anyone who keeps learning stays young. –Henry Ford, 1863-1947.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
“One small positive thought in the morning can change your whole day.” -Tenzin Gyatso, 14^th Dalai Lama.

September 12, 2020: The United Kingdom is brought to a standstill as fuel tax protesters, backed by tanker drivers, causes petrol shortages.

Hot housing markets are cooling around the world.

Hot housing markets are cooling around the world.

Online art communities are banning AI art.

What happens in your brain while you sleep?  Our brains are complex and elaborate. They contain billions of neurons, don’t fully form until we reach age 25, and can generate around 25 watts of power — enough to illuminate a light bulb.  Scientists are constantly learning new information about how the brain functions, but what do we know about how this incredible organ operates during sleep? Is it a total mystery, or are there some things we know for sure? Full Story: Live Science (9/11)

Countless civilizations have risen and fallen over the millennia. But which one is the oldest on record?  About 30 years ago, this question seemed to have a straightforward answer. Around 4000 B.C., the earliest phase of the Sumerian culture arose as the oldest civilization in the Mesopotamia region, in what is now mostly Iraq. The Sumerians are named after the ancient city of Sumer, which was a few miles south of the modern city of Kut, in eastern Iraq. Archaeologists call the earliest Sumerian phase the Uruk period, after the equally ancient city of Uruk about 50 miles (80 kilometers) to the southwest, where many of the oldest Sumerian artifacts were found. But evidence uncovered in the past few decades indicates that the Sumerians have a few contenders, including ancient Egypt, for the title of “oldest civilization.”  Full Story: Live Science (9/12)

Who will take care of the Queen’s dogs?  Queen Elizabeth’s adorable corgis, Muick and Sandy, will move in with the Duke and Duchess of York. Take a look at this photo gallery of Queen Elizabeth II and her pups over the years.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The Tribute in Light in Manhattan commemorates the 21st anniversary of 9/11
Photograph: Andrew Kelly/Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy leaves his condolence message to Elizabeth II at the residence of the British ambassador
Photograph: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters

Icelandic horses play on a meadow at a stud farm near Frankfurt as the sun rises
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP
Market Closes for September 12, 2022

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	32381.34	+229.63
		+0.71%
S&P 500	4110.41	+43.05
		+1.06%
NASDAQ	12266.41	+154.10
		+1.27%
TSX	19987.23	+213.89
		+1.08%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	28542.11	+327.36
		+1.16%
HANG SENG	MARKET CLOSE	N.A
SENSEX	60115.13	+321.99
		+0.54%
FTSE 100*	7473.03	+121.96
		+1.66%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		3.141		3.133
CND. 30 Year Bond		3.164		3.148
U.S.    10 Year Bond		3.3539		3.3154
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.5030		3.4527

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7701	0.7676
US $	1.2985	1.3028
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.3142	0.7609
US  $	1.0120	0.9881

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1713.40	1709.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	87.78	86.79

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1968: As tech stocks boomed, H. Ross Perot took his company Electronic Data Systems public for $16.50 a share, or 118 times earnings. Mr. Perot had steadfastly kept his company private, refusing 17 offers to do an IPO, until investment banker Ken Langone declared that he could sell the stock for more than 100 times earnings.  By early 1970, the stock was at $160
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 1.1%, or 213.89 to 19,987.23 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Aug. 25.
Enbridge Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.3%.
New Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 8.1%.
Today, 201 of 237 shares rose, while 33 fell; all sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 5.8%, heading for the worst year since 2018
* This quarter, the index rose 6%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2021
* The index declined 3.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 9.5% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 10% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 10% above its low on July 14, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 3.7% in the past 5 days and fell 1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 on a trailing basis and 12.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.16t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.01% compared with 14.11% in the previous session and the average of 13.48% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 68.6893| 1.1| 26/3
Energy | 64.7465| 1.8| 32/5
Industrials | 28.3290| 1.1| 22/6
Information Technology | 10.6361| 1.0| 13/1
Consumer Discretionary | 9.8135| 1.4| 12/1
Real Estate | 9.0874| 1.7| 23/0
Utilities | 6.8385| 0.7| 13/3
Consumer Staples | 6.8345| 0.8| 8/3
Communication Services | 5.8033| 0.6| 4/3
Materials | 2.1792| 0.1| 42/7
Health Care | 0.9345| 1.2| 6/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Enbridge | 17.7400| 2.3| 33.0| 12.8
TD Bank | 12.4100| 1.1| -34.3| -8.2
RBC | 12.2100| 1.0| -15.2| -4.0
CAE | -0.4370| -0.8| -6.8| -23.8
Dollarama | -3.1920| -2.1| 92.9| 24.7
Nutrien | -21.6300| -4.6| 80.5| 24.2
US
By Stephen Kirkland
(Bloomberg) — US stocks rose on the final day of trading before the release of key consumer-price data, with risk sentiment buoyed by speculation inflation is near peaking.
The dollar fell for a second day.
The S&P 500 extended last week’s rally, notching the biggest gain over a four-day span since June as all 11 major industry groups rose.
Apple Inc. was the largest contributor to the benchmark’s advance as pre-order data showed the iPhone 14 Pro Max was the best selling model, surpassing what the older version did over a similar timeframe.
The dollar declined versus all of its G-10 peers except the yen.
The Treasury curve steepened, with 10-year yields rising after a weak auction of similar-maturity notes.
US inflation data due Tuesday is expected to show headline CPI cooled in August to an 8% a year pace while the core measure that excludes food and energy is seen accelerating.
Meanwhile, traders almost fully expect another jumbo-sized Federal Reserve hike next week, following two 75-basis-point increases, taking their cue from central bank officials supporting that view.
US bond-market indicators suggest that investors are gaining confidence that this year’s spike in inflationary pressures will be brought under control.
The cost of hedging high inflation has fallen, while so-called breakeven rates on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities — a proxy for where markets expect inflation to be — have also dropped.
“I cannot see any scenario where the market doesn’t decide that CPI is heading in the right direction and that October will be lower than September and so on,” Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, wrote in a note. “That combination should allow markets to continue to enjoy the strength that they saw towards the end of last week.”
Stocks are building a bullish technical trend after the S&P 500 rallied above 3,900 week with an increasing number of stocks passing key thresholds, according to Bank of America Corp.’s technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier.
Swap markets are pricing in more than 70 basis points of hikes at the central bank’s September meeting.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last week he favors “another significant” increase in interest rates, and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he was leaning “more strongly” toward a third straight jumbo hike.
“The bad news is that US CPI inflation above 8% keeps the Fed hawkish and interest-rate volatility high,” Yuri Seliger, credit strategist at Bank of America, wrote. “The good news is that US inflation is peaking now according to our economists, and the trend should flip to a clear downward trajectory in 4Q and into 2023.”
The euro jumped the most in six months after Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel signaled support for further interest-rate hikes in Europe.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index climbed for a third day, with retailers leading the advance amid optimism over plans to curb energy bills.
The European Union is set to propose a mandatory target to cut power use — a step toward rationing — along with measures to funnel energy company profits to struggling consumers as it tries to stem the crisis.
Crude oil and industrial metals advanced as the dollar’s descent countered demand concerns.
Bitcoin extended a rally amid a brighter mood in global markets, climbing to a three-week high above $22,000. 
Here are some key events to watch this week:
* US CPI, Tuesday
* UK CPI, Wednesday
* US PPI, Wednesday
* US business inventories, empire manufacturing, retail sales, initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
* China home sales, retail sales, industrial production, fixed assets, surveyed jobless rate, Friday
* Euro area CPI, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.7% to $1.0115
* The British pound rose 0.8% to $1.1677
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 142.84 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 3.35%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 1.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 3.08%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $87.88 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,736.10 an ounce
–With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Tassia Sipahutar, Garfield Reynolds, Robert Brand, Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

The biggest argument against democracy is a five-minute discussion with the average voter. -Winston Churchill, 1874-1965.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com