Category: Newsletters

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

Today is Schäferlauf, Shepherd’s Race, in Germany.

August 24, 79: Mont Vesuvius erupts, burying the Roman cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum under volcanic ash and preserving them for centuries.

August 24, 1981: Mark David Chapman was sentenced in New York to 20 years to life in prison for the murder of rock musician John Lennon.Go to article >>

Tropical rainforests could get too hot for photosynthesis and die if climate crisis continues, scientists warn.
Data collected by the International Space Station has revealed a small fraction of leaves in the world’s tropical rainforests are already exceeding peak temperatures. Read More

Vast Gothic cemetery brimming with grave goods and ornate silver jewelry discovered in Poland
Goths living in northern Poland between the first and fifth centuries were talented silversmiths and produced jewelry that was as high-quality as items from the Roman Empire. Read More.

India lands on moon! Chandrayaan-3 becomes world’s 1st spacecraft to land near lunar south pole
India landed its Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft near the moon’s south pole yesterday (Aug. 23), making history for the nation and for lunar exploration in general. Read More.

The human Y chromosome has finally been fully sequenced, 20 years after the 1st draft
One of the smallest chromosomes in humans, the male sex chromosome is the final one to be fully sequenced. Read More.

‘Polar bear capital of the world’ soon to be overrun with record number of bears due to shifting sea ice
The Canadian town of Churchill has already had more than four times as many polar bear visitors this year compared with the same time last year, and many more could soon be on the way. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Ludwigsburg, Germany
A sculpture depicting Fred Flintstone at a pumpkin exhibition in the garden of Ludwigsburg Castle.  Photograph: Thomas Kienzle/AFP/Getty Images

Northumberland, UK
Holy Island causeway forms the final stretch of the King Charles III England coast path. The new stretch connects Bamburgh with the Scottish border, completing a continuous path between Bridlington in the East Riding of Yorkshire and the Scottish border, a distance of 245 miles (395km). It is the latest part of the 2,700-mile national trail to be opened and the longest section so far.
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

British Columbia, Canada
Figurines among the ashes of a home after the Bush Creek wildfire destroyed dozens of homes and other buildings in Scotch Creek, Lee Creek and Celista in the North Shuswap Lake region.
Photograph: Jesse Winter/Reuters
Market Closes for August 24^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34099.42	-373.56
		-1.08%
S&P 500	4376.31	-59.70
		-1.35%
NASDAQ	13463.97	-257.06
		-1.87%
TSX	19775.83	-103.96
		-0.52%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32287.21	+276.95
		+0.87%
HANG SENG	18212.17	+366.25
		+2.05%
SENSEX	65252.34	-180.96
		-0.28%
FTSE 100*	7333.63	+13.10
		+0.18%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.692	3.647
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.508	3.470
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2372	4.1918
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3021	4.2699

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7363	0.7393
US $	1.3581	1.3526

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4686	0.6809
US $	1.0813	0.9248

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1916.65	1892.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	79.70	79.49

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1927, Harry M. Markowitz was born in Chicago. Markowitz in the early 1950s devised the intricate mathematics that proved the value of diversification, laying the groundwork for modern portfolio theory. He shared the Nobel Prize in economics in 1990 for his work.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.5% at 19,775.83 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.9% on Aug. 15 and follows the previous session’s increase of 1%.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.2%.
Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest drop, falling 9.2%.
Today, 162 of 227 shares fell, while 59 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 4.1%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index declined 1.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 5% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.1% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 10.6% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and fell 3.9% in the past 30 days
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.14t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.46% compared with 10.88% in the previous session and the average of 10.72% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -31.9866| -0.9| 4/36
Industrials | -25.3998| -0.9| 6/20
Information Technology | -24.0373| -1.6| 2/9
Materials | -14.7525| -0.6| 14/33
Financials | -12.7271| -0.2| 11/18
Consumer Discretionary | -7.6952| -1.1| 0/13
Utilities | -3.1218| -0.4| 4/11
Real Estate | -2.9441| -0.6| 3/18
Health Care | -1.7373| -2.9| 0/4
Consumer Staples | 7.8958| 0.9| 10/0
Communication Services | 12.5668| 1.7| 5/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -34.4700| -3.2| 59.2| -8.0
Shopify | -12.6800| -2.0| -22.5| 60.2
Canadian Natural Resources | -7.9050| -1.3| -16.1| 8.5
Couche-Tard | 6.3470| 1.7| 60.1| 19.1
BCE | 8.5560| 2.4| 124.9| -5.5
RBC | 22.9700| 2.0| -29.4| -3.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in big tech fizzled out as bond yields rose, with traders wading through remarks from a slew of Federal Reserve officials and awaiting Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday for clues on the outlook for interest rates.
The S&P 500 dropped more than 1%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell twice as much.
Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent policy moves, hovered near 5%.
The mega-cap space came under pressure, with Tesla Inc. and Apple Inc. each dropping at least 2.6%.
Nvidia Corp., the company at the forefront of the artificial-intelligence race, almost wiped out a rally that topped 6%.
“It’s sort of like sell the news,” said Max Wasserman, founder of Miramar Capital. “Nvidia had great numbers, blow-away numbers, but the market already reflected that. Investors may be realizing that we’ve had such a big run in the market, so let’s take a little profit before the Fed throws cold water on it. And if it doesn’t, they’ll come right back in.”
Traders are keeping a close eye on the annual gathering of top central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming — where Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech at 10:05 a.m. Washington time Friday.
The Fed chief will likely use his platform to outline how officials will assess whether rates should go higher and determine when it’s time to start cutting them.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 78% of investors expect Powell to focus on data dependency.
The next most-popular choice was financial conditions, which received 12% of votes.
Only 21% of investors expect the market reaction to be “risk-off”, 43% bet it will be mixed or negligible and 37% are expecting a “risk-on” response.
“If Powell focuses on data dependency, that ought to help 10-year yields stabilize,” said Dennis DeBusschere, founder of the New York-based research firm.
That would also provide a “tailwind” to the growth-versus-value trade, he noted.

Another topic that has surfaced on Wall Street over the past few days is whether Powell will address the abstract, almost elusive number that many refer to as r-star.
That’s a sort of “goldilocks” rate that neither stimulates nor restricts economic growth.
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and Bill Dudley, previously the New York Fed chief, are among those who have said markets are still underestimating the so-called neutral interest-rate.
Any hint at an upward revision would likely ripple across global markets, forcing a reevaluation on where the fair value for Treasury yields is likely to land.
Yet Krishna Guha at Evercore ISI said Powell will likely focus on the short-to-medium-term outlook — and avoid making a call on the r-star.
“Expect a balanced assessment with no abrupt hawkishness, but no ‘Mission Accomplished’,” Guha added. “The Fed has not come this far to let inflation slip out of its grasp.”
In the run-up to Powell’s address, Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins told Yahoo! Finance that rate increases may be necessary, adding that she wasn’t prepared to signal the peak point.
Meantime, her Philadelphia counterpart Patrick Harker sees interest rates on hold for the rest of this year, and thinks policymakers have likely undertaken sufficient tightening, telling CNBC that “we’ve probably done enough.”
Speaking earlier in an interview on Bloomberg Television, former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said a pickup in economic activity this summer could delay plans for the Fed to wrap up interest-rate increases.

* Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities:
“The question is whether we see the Powell ‘higher for longer’ or the Powell ‘being defensive on rate cuts’. Not sure how much there is of a difference, but markets will move in the direction that hurts the biggest positions.”
* Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers:
“Market players are cautiously awaiting tomorrow’s Jackson Hole presentation, while praying that the event doesn’t act as a deja vu by sparking volatility. During last year’s Jackson Hole meeting, Powell increased his emphasis on fighting inflation and opined that below-trend economic growth is needed to curtail price gains. The presentation is clearly on everyone’s mind.  Excitement about Nvidia’s earnings quickly tilted to a focus on the potential of a hawkish Powell.”
* Max Wasserman, founder of Miramar Capital:
“Regardless of what the Fed says, we know they’re roughly at the eighth or ninth inning of a ball game in raising interest rates. They’re near the end of it. But when the market’s valued at this level, this richly, a little noise can knock something
down.”
* Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors:
“In the context of the Fed’s dual mandate, the combination of elevated inflation and full employment continues to justify a bias toward tight monetary policy. How tight is tight enough?  All eyes are now on Jackson Hole for greater clarity on that point.”
* John Vail, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management:
“I had thought Powell would be quite hawkish, but after the weak PMIs yesterday, he may be less so, but still will likely express concerns about inflation not falling fast enough and that the market should not expect any cuts through at least the first part of 2024.”

Corporate Highlights
* Boeing Co. and its biggest supplier, Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc., fell after the plane-maker disclosed improperly drilled holes in a component that helps maintain cabin pressure within the 737 Max jet.
* Snowflake Inc. sank after giving a sales outlook for the current quarter in line with expectations, suggesting that companies are still cautious about expanding their cloud software budgets.
* Dollar Tree Inc. slipped as its earnings forecast fell short of analyst estimates as the company contends with challenges such as higher wages and a less profitable sales mix, one year after introducing a higher price point.
* T-Mobile USA Inc. is cutting 7% of its staff, part of an effort to rein in costs as the company spends heavily to attract new subscribers in an increasingly competitive market.
Key events this week:
* Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde to address Jackson Hole conference, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0805
* The British pound fell 1% to $1.2594
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 145.86 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.1% to $26,042.57
* Ether fell 2% to $1,650.27
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to  4.2%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.51%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.43%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,945.20 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Richard Henderson, John Viljoen, Namitha Jagadeesh, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Moral indignation is jealousy with a halo. –H.G. Wells, 1866-1946.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
August 23, 1949: The Soviet Union successfully detonates its first atomic bomb, becoming the second nuclear power in the world

2003: Former Roman Catholic priest John Geoghan, a convicted child molester, was killed by a fellow inmate in a Massachusetts prison.  Go to article >>

Newly discovered black hole ‘speed limit’ hints at new laws of physics
When supermassive black holes barrel toward collision, they can reach speeds of up to 1/10th the speed of light, new research suggests. Read More.

Europe’s oldest known village teetered on stilts over a Balkan lake 8,000 years ago
The village likely dates to the time of Europe’s first farmers, who arrived from Anatolia about 8,000 years ago. Read More.

Rare gold coins and cremated infants were possible sacrificial gifts to the ancient gods of Carthage.  Five gold coins unearthed from a temple in ancient Carthage depict the goddess Tanit and were likely left by wealthy worshippers alongside burials as an offering to deities.  Full Story: Live Science (8/22)

All of Neptune’s clouds have mysteriously disappeared, and the sun may be to blame
The disappearance of the gas giant’s clouds is tied to the sun’s 11-year cycle. Read More.

Why a vacation is good for you:  Science says a few idle days can give you a big mental boost — even before you take time off. Learn how vacations have direct benefits on your brain.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Durham, UK
People walk through a sunflower trail at East Grange Farm in Shincliffe.  Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Narok county, Kenya
The Maa cultural festival inside the Maasai Mara national reserve.  Photograph: Thomas Mukoya/Reuters

Bursa, Turkey
Flamingos which have arrived at their wintering area of Bursa Kocaçay Delta after spending the summer in Italy’s Veneto region. Hundreds of flamingos fly along the Mediterranean coastline in flocks to return to their wintering areas.  Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Market Closes for August 23^rd, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34472.98	+184.15
		+0.54%
S&P 500	4436.01	+48.46
		+1.10%
NASDAQ	13721.03	+215.16
		+1.59%
TSX	19879.79	+188.58
		+0.96%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32010.26	+153.55
		+0.48%
HANG SENG	17845.92	+54.91
		+0.31%
SENSEX	65433.30	+213.27
		+0.33%
FTSE 100*	7320.53	+49.77
		+0.68%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.647	3.815
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.470	3.614
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1918	4.3281
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.2699	4.4014

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7393	0.7382
US $	1.3526	1.3546

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4693	0.6806
US $	1.0863	0.9205

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1892.75	1889.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	79.49	80.35

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1976, Vanguard launched the first retail index fund, to howls of derision. “The name of the game is to do the best and I can’t conceive of investment managers not even trying to do better than average,” Fidelity’s chairman said.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1% at 19,879.79 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since July 13 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.5%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.0%.
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 7.2%.
Today, 178 of 227 shares rose, while 47 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 20 times.  The next day, it advanced 11 times for an average 0.7% and declined nine times for an average 0.8%
* This month, the index fell 3.6%
* The index declined 0.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 6.8% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.6% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 11.2% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and fell 3.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 on a trailing basis and 14 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.12t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 10.88% compared with 10.88% in the previous session and the average of 10.73% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 60.1599| 1.0| 27/1
Information Technology | 47.8439| 3.3| 11/0
Materials | 40.5159| 1.7| 44/6
Industrials | 20.3983| 0.8| 20/6
Utilities | 9.7452| 1.2| 16/0
Real Estate | 7.8550| 1.7| 21/0
Consumer Staples | 7.6836| 0.9| 10/1
Consumer Discretionary | 6.0516| 0.8| 13/1
Communication Services | 2.0992| 0.3| 3/2
Health Care | 0.1213| 0.2| 2/2
Energy | -13.9119| -0.4| 11/28
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 30.4800| 5.0| -7.6| 63.4
TD Bank | 10.2500| 1.0| -16.0| -4.9
Constellation Software | 9.1710| 2.5| -8.6| 33.2
ARC Resources | -2.2250| -2.6| 8.9| 8.2
Cenovus Energy | -3.8420| -1.5| 1.0| -2.7
Canadian Natural Resources | -4.0680| -0.6| 34.0| 9.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks climbed the most since June, while bond yields fell after economic reports in both the US and Europe fueled bets that major central banks will pause their interest-rate hikes to prevent a recession.
In late-trading, a $200 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gained after Nvidia Corp.’s revenue forecast beat estimates.
Treasury two-year US yields, which are more sensitive to imminent policy moves, sank below 5% as data showed American business activity barely expanded on subdued customer demand.
The 10-year German rate also slid as a contraction of private-sector activity in the euro area intensified.
To Jennifer McKeown at Capital Economics, August’s flash Purchasing Managers’ indexes “strongly suggest that we are at or close to the peak in monetary tightening cycles.”
Another relevant economic signal came from the US mortgage industry, with applications for home purchases tumbling to an almost three-decade low.
Separate data showed new-home sales hit the highest in over a year — as a surge in mortgage rates kept inventory on the resale market extremely limited.
Traders also weighed a US government report saying that job growth in the year through March will probably be revised down by 306,000 — a smaller adjustment than some economists expected.
The advance in bonds Wednesday was also attributed to technical factors.
That’s after a Treasury selloff that recently drove 10-year yields to the highest since late 2007 on speculation that interest rates would remain elevated for longer to curb inflation — even if the Fed decides to pause its hiking campaign in September.
“The recent surge in bond yields has pushed up mortgage and corporate borrowing rates, contributed to the fall in stock prices, and generated upward pressures on the dollar,” said Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI. “The Fed will have to consider the tightening in financial conditions when setting rates in coming months, including the decision on whether to hike in September.”
The market is eagerly awaiting Jerome Powell’s speech Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for clues on the outlook for policy after officials last month lifted borrowing costs to the highest level in 22 years.
Until recently, the way forward had been clear: Keep raising interest rates to bring the fastest inflation in four decades under control.
Now, as inflation continues to cool, disagreements among policymakers are emerging over how much more work is left to do.
Powell will likely use his platform this week to outline how the Fed will assess whether rates should go higher and determine when it’s time to start cutting them.
Another event that will set the tone for markets is an assessment on the outlook for artificial intelligence and how that will shape stock-trader sentiment over the next few months.
That’s why the results from Nvidia, the company at the heart of the AI frenzy, are so relevant.
“There’s been an ongoing debate on whether Nvidia is even more important to the broad trajectory of markets than Fed Chair Powell’s comments from Jackson Hole on Friday,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.
Investors also sifted through a batch of earnings from retailers.
Kohl’s Corp. and Urban Outfitters Inc. climbed on earnings that beat estimates while Abercrombie & Fitch Co. advanced after boosting its full-year outlook.
Foot Locker Inc. sank after cutting its full-year forecast and reporting results that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations amid concern over weakening spending patterns.

Corporate Highlights
* Esmark Inc. said it won’t make a takeover offer for US Steel Corp., citing the United Steelworkers’ support for a rival $7.25 billion bid from Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
* WeWork Inc. is rounding up advisers for help with a restructuring as it struggles with a heavy debt load and poor financial performance, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* Luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc. gained after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly orders and raising its sales expectations as tight supplies of existing homes fueled demand for new ones.
* Advance Auto Parts Inc. climbed after naming a new chief executive officer and starting a strategic review of the business as it struggles to keep up with inflation.
* Grab Holdings Ltd. brought forward its profitability target after posting a narrower loss in the second quarter, buoyed by extensive cost cuts at the ride-hailing and food-delivery company. The shares rose.
* Peloton Interactive Inc. slumped after the fitness company gave a weak revenue forecast for the current quarter and said costs for a product recall were significantly more expensive than it anticipated.
* Mallinckrodt Plc plans to file bankruptcy for the second time in less than three years after battling business declines and struggling to keep up with payments on a $1.7 billion settlement resolving a wave of lawsuits accusing the drugmaker of fueling the US opioid epidemic.
Key events this week:
* US initial jobless claims, durable goods, Thursday
* Kansas City Fed’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole begins, Thursday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde to address Jackson Hole conference, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0863
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2718
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 144.87 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.9% to $26,603.63
* Ether rose 3.4% to $1,685.8
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 14 basis points to 4.18%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 13 basis points to 2.52%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 18 basis points to 4.47%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.3% to $78.62 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 1% to $1,945.90 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Brett Miller, Tassia Sipahutar, Namitha Jagadeesh, Sagarika Jaisinghani and Isabelle Lee.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Sincerity is the single virtue that binds the divine and man in one. -Shinto teaching.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
August 22, 1485: The Battle of Bosworth Field takes place, marking the end of the Wars of the Roses and the beginning of the Tudor dynasty in England.
On August 22, 1902, President Theodore Roosevelt became the first United States chief executive to ride in an automobile in public.  Go to article >>
August 22,1942: Battle of Stalingrad.
Bill and Melinda Gates confirm on August 22, 1999 their intention to reorganize and expand philanthropic activities as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, superseding two other Gates foundations. The new foundation by the Microsoft co-founder and his then-wife is the nation’s second largest, with an initial endowment of up to $17 billion. Within six months it becomes the richest with an additional $5 billion gift. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org).

Claude Debussy, composer, b. 1862.
Henri Cartier-Bresson, photographer, b.1908.

Can hot drinks help you cool down?
It may sound counterintuitive, but can a steaming drink cool you down on a scorching day?  Read More.

New ‘potentially interstellar’ comet will be visible to the naked eye next month before leaving our solar system forever.
Comet Nishimura has a hyperbolic orbit, which suggests that it may have come from outside the solar system and will likely be catapulted into interstellar space after sling-shotting around the sun. Read More.

Russia’s Luna-25 lander just crash-landed on the moon, space agency confirms.   Luna-25, Russia’s first moon mission in 47 years, was the vanguard of a planned series of lunar probes.
Full Story: Live Science (8/21)

Bizarre, alien-like creature discovered deep in Atlantic Ocean has 20 gangly arms.   The bizarre Antarctic feather star was once believed to be one species. Now, scientists have figured out that it’s actually eight.  Full Story: Live Science (8/18)

Millions in India cheer on teenage chess prodigy.  India is gripped today as an 18-year-old chess prodigy known as Pragg battles for the title of World Chess Champion.

Loch Ness monster fans prepare for biggest creature hunt in 50 years.  “Monster hunters” are planning a coordinated effort to scour the waters of Scotland in the hope of uncovering answers about the famed creature.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Norway
A view of waves from a porthole of the Norwegian-flagged research ship PolarXplorer.  Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Image

Outer space
An image from the James Webb telescope shows the Ring Nebula in unprecedented detail.  Photograph: Shutterstock

Thrace, Greece
Firefighters and volunteers tackle a wildfire near the village of Palagia.  Photograph: Dimitris Alexoudis/EPA
Market Closes for August 22^nd, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34288.83	-174.86
		-0.51%
S&P 500	4387.55	-12.22
		-0.28%
NASDAQ	13505.88	+8.29
		+0.06%
TSX	19691.21	-93.66
		-0.47%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	31856.71	+291.07
		+0.92%
HANG SENG	17791.01	+167.72
		+0.95%
SENSEX	65220.03	+3.94
		+0.01%
FTSE 100*	7270.76	+12.94
		+0.18%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.815	3.777
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.614	3.592
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.3281	4.3379
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4014	4.4465

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7382	0.7384
US $	1.3546	1.3543

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4694	0.6805
US $	1.0846	0.9220

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1889.85	1893.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.35	80.72

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1787: John Fitch launched the first successful steamboat run in U.S. waters. But he never got costs under control, so Robert Fulton—who launched his own steamboat 20 years later—is instead remembered as the father of the steamboat.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.5%, or 93.66 to 19,691.21 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since June 26.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.3%.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. had the largest drop, falling 3.7%.
Today, 121 of 227 shares fell, while 103 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 4.5%
* The index declined 1.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 5.4% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.5% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 10.2% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1% in the past 5 days and fell 4.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 on a trailing basis and 13.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.13t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.88% compared with 10.84% in the previous session and the average of 10.72% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -70.3648| -1.2| 7/22
Energy | -20.6921| -0.6| 11/28
Consumer Staples | -5.6599| -0.7| 3/8
Communication Services | -3.7276| -0.5| 0/5
Industrials | -1.6033| -0.1| 16/10
Consumer Discretionary | -1.5493| -0.2| 7/7
Health Care | -0.6227| -1.0| 1/3
Real Estate | 0.1512| 0.0| 11/10
Utilities | 0.3366| 0.0| 7/9
Information Technology | 3.3694| 0.2| 8/3
Materials | 6.6984| 0.3| 32/16
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -14.8900| -1.3| -7.1| -6.0
TD Bank | -12.6900| -1.2| 9.5| -5.8
Brookfield Corp | -9.2760| -2.1| 1.3| 2.1
Barrick Gold | 2.7030| 1.0| -30.5| -7.4
Franco-Nevada | 2.8470| 1.1| -0.9| 1.5
Teck Resources | 3.8210| 2.3| 38.2| 8.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks failed to gain further traction a day after the rally in big tech, with traders bracing for Nvidia Corp.’s results — which are set to test Wall Street’s fervor around the artificial-intelligence hype.
The S&P 500 extended its August slide.
Banks dropped as S&P Global Ratings joined Moody’s Investors Service in cutting some US lenders amid a “tough” climate.
Macy’s Inc. sank 14% as credit-card delinquencies accelerated, raising a red flag about consumer health.
Nvidia fell 2.8% after touching an all-time high on the eve of its quarterly report.
The chipmaker’s earnings are seen by many as setting the tone for markets alongside Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday.
In a sign of how significant Nvidia’s results will be, the options market is bracing for a move of about 10% following the results.
With Nvidia accounting for over 3% of the S&P 500, the stock action will possibly have broader implications.
Of the 10 largest companies in the gauge, Nvidia is the only stock for
which the prices of call options — which are desirable if the stock goes up — are higher than put options, according to data from Nations Indexes.
The recent rally in mega-caps gave tech bulls some reasons to be encouraged about the group ahead of the seasonally  challenging September/October timeframe, but it also put a lot of pressure on Nvidia to come through with an exceptional earnings report, said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
“The expectations are getting extremely high,” Maley noted.  “This does not mean that their earnings report will not be the catalyst for a nice push higher for the tech stocks once again, but the higher the expectations get, the tougher they become to be exceeded. With the continued rise in bond yields, it is going to be essential for Nvidia to report spectacular earnings and guidance again if this correction in the tech sector is going to come to an end any time soon.”
Analysts are predicting that second-quarter revenue may exceed the forecast that Nvidia gave three months ago.
That prediction was far better than expected at the time — helping propel the chipmaker’s market value above $1 trillion.
The only limit to the growth may be whether the giant chipmaker was able to get enough supply to meet seemingly insatiable demand for AI data-center gear.
Nvidia shares have more than tripled in 2023, leading gains in the S&P 500, which has risen 15%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has rallied 40% in the span.
Action in the Treasury market subsided on Tuesday, with 10-year rates little changed.
Benchmark yields hit an almost 16-year high Monday as the resilient economy has investors positioning for the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs elevated.
The surge in US yields has been the primary reason stocks have declined over the past several weeks, with investors “pushing out” the date of expected rate cuts as they begin to accept the Fed may keep rates “higher for longer,” according to Tom Essaye, founder of “The Sevens Report” newsletter.
“It’s not the height of rates that matters as much as how long they stay high,” Essaye noted. “If we see Powell hint at higher for longer on Friday, we will need to brace for more equity market volatility.”
To Alex Coffey at TD Ameritrade, while we may have seen the last rate hike of the current tightening cycle, that doesn’t mean we’re soon going to see cuts — and it “doesn’t necessarily mean that Jerome Powell is going to say it.”
Powell is set to speak Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
Investors will look to the highly anticipated speech for clues on the outlook for interest rates, which the Fed last month lifted to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years.
There may be some conversation about the neutral interest-rate — or r-star — which is the “goldilocks” interest rate that neither stimulates nor drags on economic activity, according to Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments.
“A suggestion that investment and therefore potential economic growth may be moving higher, as a result of the climate transition or digital infrastructure required for artificial intelligence, could be perceived as hawkish, since it would suggest that the policy rate could stabilize at a higher level,” Goodwin added.
Meantime, Krishna Guha at Evercore ISI said Powell will likely focus on the short to medium term outlook — and avoid making a call on the r-star.
“Expect a balanced assessment with no abrupt hawkishness, but no Mission Accomplished: the Fed has not come this far to let inflation slip out of its grasp,” Guha said. “If we are right, yields could end the week lower, not higher — boosting equities.”

Other Corporate Highlights
* Nike Inc. dropped for a ninth straight session — a record streak of losses — as concern over China’s sluggish consumer recovery builds and elevated merchandise stockpiles continue to weigh on profitability across the activewear industry.
* Charles Schwab Corp. saw its 11th straight day of losses, the longest such streak since 2004.
** The financial company said it’s planning to cut jobs and close or downsize offices to achieve at least $500 million in annual cost savings.
* Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. sank after cutting its profit outlook for the full year as the retailer deals with slowing growth and more theft at its stores.
* The selloff in AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., sparked by a Delaware Supreme Court ruling that the company’s stock conversion can go forward, extended into a second day.
* Lowe’s Cos. climbed after topping Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and comparable sales, easing fears of a meltdown in home improvement.
* Activision Blizzard Inc. rose as Microsoft Corp.’s $69 billion acquisition offer got a new chance at winning approval from UK regulators after the tech giant submitted a substantially different deal to the country’s antitrust watchdog.
Key events this week:
* Eurozone S&P Global Services & Manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, Wednesday
* UK S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday
* US new home sales, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday
* US initial jobless claims, durable goods, Thursday
* Kansas City Fed’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole begins, Thursday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde to address Jackson Hole conference, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0846
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2731
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 145.89 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $25,803.82
* Ether fell 2.7% to $1,626.53
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.32%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.64%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $80.35 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,926.60 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Brett Miller, Tassia Sipahutar, John Viljoen, Namitha Jagadeesh, Farah Elbahrawy, Elena Popina, Vildana Hajric and Felice Maranz.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
We generate fears while we sit.  We overcome them by action. –Dr. Henry Link, 1889-1952.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Carolann is away from the office today, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On this day, 1991 A hard-line coup against Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev collapsed in the face of a popular uprising led by Russian federation President Boris Yeltsin. Go to article >>

Russia’s first lunar mission in decades ended in failure over the weekend when its Luna 25 spacecraft crashed into the moon’s surface. It was not immediately clear what caused the crash, but Roscosmos, Russia’s space agency, said the collision occurred after communication with the spacecraft was interrupted Saturday. The incident is a blow to Russia’s space ambitions as the uncrewed spacecraft was meant to complete Russia’s first lunar landing mission in 47 years. The country’s last lunar lander, Luna 24, landed on the moon on August 18, 1976. Luna 25 was years in the making and, if successful, would have marked a huge stride for the country’s civil space program — which has faced issues for decades.

2 male great white sharks have traveled thousands of miles together and no one knows why  Although usually solitary animals, two juvenile great whites, nicknamed Simon and Jekyll, have been tracked traveling more than 4,000 miles together along the U.S. east coast. Read More

Bizarre ‘failed star’ the size of Jupiter is 2,000 degrees hotter than the sun This Jupiter-size object is 80 times denser than a planet and hotter than the sun. Full Story: Live Science (8/18)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Harare, Zimbabwe
Followers of the Stowdart sect of the Zion Church of God sing and dance during a service in the Mbare neighbourhood as Zimbabweans prepare to head to the polls to vote in general and presidential elections
Photograph: John Wessels/AFP/Getty Images

Istanbul, Turkey
Athletes take part in the Samsung Bosphorus intercontinental swimming race from Kanlıca to Kuruçeşme
Photograph: Dia Images/Getty Images

Sant Climent, Spain
A horse with a rider, or caixer, rears up during the traditional jaleo at the Sant Climent festival
Photograph: Matthias Oesterle/Shutterstock
Market Closes for August 21^st, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34463.69	-36.97
		-0.11%
S&P 500	4399.77	+30.06
		+0.69%
NASDAQ	13497.59	+206.81
		+1.56%
TSX	19784.87	-33.52
		-0.17%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	31565.64	+114.88
		+0.37%
HANG SENG	17623.29	-327.56
		-1.82%
SENSEX	65216.09	+267.43
		+0.41%
FTSE 100*	7257.82	-4.61
		-0.06%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.777	3.716
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.592	3.530
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.3379	4.2546
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4465	4.3751

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7384	0.7379
US $	1.3543	1.3553

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4757	0.6776
US $	1.0896	0.9178

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1893.70	1896.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.72	81.25

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1754, the inventor of coal-gas lighting, William Murdock, was born in Bellow Mill, Scotland. His invention enabled the streets of London—and soon thereafter, most of the world’s major cities—to be illuminated at night. For the first time, sunset didn’t have to mean darkness and human productivity and safety took a great leap forward.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 19,784.87 in Toronto. The index dropped to the lowest closing level since June 27 after the previous session’s little change.
Canadian National Railway Co. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 0.9%. Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.1%.
Today, 144 of 227 shares fell, while 79 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 4.1%
* The index declined 1.6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 3.5% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.1% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 10.7% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.5% in the past 5 days and fell 3.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 on a trailing basis and 13.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.14t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.84% compared with 10.82% in the previous session and the average of 10.68% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -31.1681| -0.5| 6/22
Industrials | -14.6845| -0.5| 3/22
Energy | -7.9391| -0.2| 11/28
Utilities | -7.6304| -0.9| 1/15
Real Estate | -6.9735| -1.5| 1/20
Consumer Staples | -4.7725| -0.6| 0/11
Consumer Discretionary | -1.2077| -0.2| 4/9
Health Care | -1.1302| -1.8| 1/3
Communication Services | -0.4255| -0.1| 2/3
Information Technology | 19.3235| 1.4| 9/2
Materials | 23.0828| 1.0| 41/9
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD | Index | | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian National | -5.8840| -0.9| -20.2| -5.2
TD Bank | -4.8690| -0.5| -19.8| -4.7
Suncor Energy | -4.5830| -1.1| 22.0| 3.2
Constellation | | | |
Software | 5.3030| 1.5| 21.1| 29.5
Cameco | 5.6980| 4.0| 27.0| 59.1
Shopify | 9.0670| 1.5| -26.0| 55.4
* The benchmark 10-year bond fell and the yield rose 6.1 basis points to 3.777%
* The S&P 500 Index advanced 0.7%
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in big tech spurred a rebound in stocks, outweighing concerns over higher Treasury yields just a few days ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
The S&P 500 halted a four-day drop while the Nasdaq 100 rose about 1.5%, with Tesla Inc. up the most since March. Nvidia Corp., which helped ignite the artificial-intelligence frenzy that has driven this year’s equity surge, jumped over 8%. The chipmaker’s results are due Wednesday, and revenue is seen rising 65% from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“This is a big week for tech stocks, and optimism is brewing that Nvidia will deliver some good results,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst for the Americas at Oanda. “Will Nvidia’s earnings reignite the AI trade and provide much needed relief to tech stocks?”
In late hours, SoftBank Group Corp. semiconductor unit Arm filed for what is set to be this year’s largest US initial public offering. Zoom Video Communications Inc. rallied on a bullish forecast. Charles Schwab Corp. is planning to cut at least $500 million in annual staff, professional services and real estate costs in the latest step by the brokerage to respond to investor pressure.
Bonds resumed their selloff as signs of economic strength bolstered bets on still elevated rates. The yield on 10-year inflation-protected Treasuries pushed over 2% for the first time since 2009. Not long after, the yield on 10-year notes without that protection hit a level last seen in late 2007. Just because real yields have climbed, it doesn’t mean the scenario for stocks is necessarily bad, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Since 1997, average forward returns for equities when real yields hit 52-week highs were just modestly worse than all periods, the strategists wrote. In addition, new highs for real yields broadly tend to lead to pockets of stronger earnings-per-share growth, they noted. “That’s consistent with the view that high real yields represent a stronger economy, even if that has some negative implications for asset price valuation,” Bespoke strategists said.
Powell will speak Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium after officials last month lifted rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years. Minutes from the gathering showed policymakers still saw significant risks that inflation could remain higher than they expect — which could keep rates elevated.
“Traders will be sifting every sentence from Jerome Powell at this week’s Jackson Hole conference for clues about the Fed’s disposition,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Some investors may have focused on the reality that this economic resilience may extend the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance on interest rates.”
In fact, two-thirds of 602 respondents in Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey say the Fed has yet to conquer inflation. And over 80% of those surveyed said Powell’s Jackson Hole speech will reinforce the message of a hawkish hold.
“The Fed and investors will soon pivot from a focus on how high the policy rate will go to a concern about how long they will stay at that level — and what the implications are for a ‘higher for longer’ scenario,” said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer for the wealth management business at Northern Trust. “In our view, Powell will want to stay on message, and will try to push back against a growing market consensus that rate cuts are on the 2024 horizon.”
The speeches from Fed chiefs at the Jackson Hole conference have typically buoyed stocks since the turn of the millennium, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.4% on average in the following week, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.  But last year’s appearance is still fresh in traders’ minds: Equities slumped 3.2% in the week following Powell’s remarks, according to BI, after he warned of keeping policy
restrictive to battle inflation.
Meantime, two of Wall Street’s top strategists are at odds about the outlook for US stocks following a three-week run of declines as debate rages over whether the economy can avoid a recession.
While Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson — a stalwart equity bear — says sentiment is likely to weaken further if investors are starting to “question the sustainability of the economic resiliency,” his counterpart at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., David Kostin, says there’s room for investors to further increase exposure if the economy stays on course for a soft landing.
A bruising August is still poised to end a five-month winning streak for equities. Yet there have been few signs of outright bearishness in the recent rout. Hedge funds and other large speculators narrowed their net- short positions in S&P 500 futures to the smallest in 14 months, according to the latest batch of Commodity Futures Trading Commission data Friday. And analysts say the drop this month may be a welcome break from the steep gains that pushed valuations to lofty levels.

Key events this week:
* US existing home sales, Tuesday
* Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Tuesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Services & Manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, Wednesday
* UK S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday
* US new home sales, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday
* US initial jobless claims, durable goods, Thursday
* Kansas City Fed’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole begins, Thursday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde to address Jackson Hole conference, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0896
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2759
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 146.22 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $26,124.17
* Ether fell 1% to $1,673.25
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced eight basis points to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.73%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $80.80 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,923.70 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Brett Miller, Tassia Sipahutar, John Viljoen, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Isabelle Lee and Heather Burke.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Isabel

Not all those who wander are lost. – J. R. R. Tolkien, 1892-1973

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff, Registered Representative

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
August 18, 1838:  United States Exploring Expedition headed by Charles Wilkes departs for the Pacific Ocean and Antarctica.
1872: First mail-order catalogue published.
1920: 19^th Amendment ratified – Women’s Right To Vote.
1991: Soviet hard-liners launched a coup aimed at toppling President Mikhail S. Gorbachev, who was vacationing in the Crimea. Go to article >>

Roslynn Carter, b. 1927.
Robert Redford, b.1937.

Ford reveals new Mustang with $300,000 price tag,  Learn why this Ford Mustang has a Lamborghini-level price.

Ralph Lauren targeting metaverse shoppers.

The Milky Way wasn’t always a spiral — and astronomers may finally know why it ‘shape-shifted’.  A century-old mystery of how galaxies change shapes has been solved by considering “survival of the fittest” collisions between cosmic titans.  Full Story: Live Science (8/17)

‘We were freaking out’: Scientists left ‘flabbergasted’ by detailed dinosaur footprints covering a cliff in Alaska
A 20-story rock face in Alaska known as “The Coliseum” is covered with layers of footprints belonging to a range of dinosaurs, including a tyrannosaur. Read More.

Hirota people of Japan intentionally deformed infant skulls 1,800 years ago.   The Hirota people, who occupied a Japanese island for around 400 years, deliberately flattened the back of their children’s heads. And experts are not entirely sure why.

Plantation slavery was invented on this tiny African island, according to archaeologists
A 16th-century sugar estate on the tiny African island of São Tomé is the earliest known example of plantation slavery. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

British Columbia, Canada
Smoke from a wildfire at McDougall Creek billows over Lake Okanagan.  Photograph: Joe O’Connal/AP

Havana, Cuba
A vintage American car passes a poster of Fidel Castro, Raúl Castro and the current president, Miguel Díaz-Canel.  Photograph: Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty Images

Beijing, China
Surprised looking robots are spotted at the annual World Robot Conference.  Photograph: Mark R Cristino/EPA
Market Closes for August 18^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34500.66	+25.83
		+.07%
S&P 500	4369.71	-0.65
		-0.01%
NASDAQ	13290.78	-26.06
		-0.20%
TSX	19818.39	+6.16
		+0.03%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	31450.76	-175.24
		-0.55%
HANG SENG	17950.85	-375.78
		-2.05%
SENSEX	64948.66	-202.36
		-0.31%
FTSE 100*	7262.43	-47.78
		-0.65%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.716	3.768
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.530	3.584
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2546	4.2741
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3751	4.3858

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7379	0.7386
US $	1.3553	1.3540

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4735	0.6787
US $	1.0872	0.9198

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1896.35	1904.20
Oil
WTI Crude Future	81.25	80.39

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1982, a bull market suddenly materialized out of nowhere, and daily trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange exceeded 100 million shares for the first time, with 132,681,120 shares changing hands.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 19,818.39 in Toronto, ending a 4-day loss.
The gain follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.9%. K92 Mining Inc. had the largest increase, rising 6.6%.
Today, 122 of 227 shares rose, while 97 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 2.9%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended March 10
* The index declined 2.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 1.4% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.9% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 10.9% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 on a trailing basis and 14 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.14t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 10.82% compared with 10.83% in the previous session and the average of 10.58% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 28.0000| 0.8| 27/11
Industrials | 7.5196| 0.3| 13/11
Utilities | 6.9994| 0.8| 15/1
Real Estate | 1.2995| 0.3| 13/8
Health Care | 0.5212| 0.8| 4/0
Information Technology | -0.1062| 0.0| 9/2
Consumer Discretionary | -1.7918| -0.2| 5/8
Communication Services | -2.3869| -0.3| 2/3
Materials | -3.6312| -0.2| 21/26
Consumer Staples | -3.8994| -0.5| 4/7
Financials | -26.3706| -0.4| 9/20
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 11.7400| 1.9| 88.3| 10.9
Brookfield Corp | 7.8790| 1.8| 0.6| 5.3
Suncor Energy | 6.0500| 1.5| 118.8| 4.4
Bank of Montreal | -3.5440| -0.6| -55.9| -7.7
Manulife Financial | -9.1730| -2.8| 28.8| 1.2
RBC | -9.9280| -0.8| -26.9| -4.6
US
By Cristin Flanagan and Isabelle Lee
(Bloomberg) — Mega cap tech stocks slumped for a third straight week — the longest such streak in 2023 — as fears of higher global interest rates weighed on sentiment while bonds bounced off multiyear lows.
Stocks ground higher in the final minutes of the session in moves likely exacerbated by Friday’s giant options expiration.
It wasn’t enough as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the session unchanged.
Nasdaq 100 the session lower while MSCI’s global equities benchmark notched its biggest weekly loss since the March meltdown of Silicon Valley Bank.
While fears of an imminent recession are fading, wary investors are instead facing entrenched inflation and the prospect of more policy tightening.
That hurt risk as assets as Bitcoin slid as much as 8% and oil was set for its first weekly loss since June.
“Investors are concerned that if bond yields continue going higher, the economy is too strong and the Fed will need to raise interest rates further,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US. “And with the bond yield high enough, that poses competition for equity investors who feel the bond market is less risky than the stock market right now.”
Bond markets bounced higher Friday on speculation losses may be overdone.
In Treasuries, yield on the 10-year pulled back from Thursday’s levels that were approaching the highest since 2007.
UK and German bonds advanced.
Markets are on edge ahead of the annual gathering of policy makers at Jackson Hole in Wyoming next week, according to Andrew Hunter, deputy chief US economist at Capital Economics.
“Expectations of an economic re-acceleration have mounted,” Hunter wrote. “But with little evidence that stronger growth will threaten to reignite inflationary pressures, we don’t think there is any need for Powell to dust off his hawkish script from last year’s event.”
In another sign of nervousness, the CBOE Volatility Index climbed above 18, touching the highest level since May.
Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett warned that stocks may drop another 4%, given China’s economic turmoil and jump in bond yields.
Options expirations might have been behind some of Friday’s choppy moves in equities.
There’s some $2.2 trillion of longer-dated contracts tied to stocks and indexes scheduled to mature on Friday, according to an estimate by Rocky Fishman, founder of derivatives analytical firm Asym 500.
Not everyone on Wall Street is confident that an economic slump can be avoided.
Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of the Boston-based investment firm Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo, reiterated his call for a recession.
Artificial intelligence is very important said Grantham, after the boom in AI-tied stocks staved off his dire earlier predictions for a market reckoning, but “it’s perhaps too little too late to save us from a recession.”
Nvidia Corp., the poster child for the AI-fueled stock frenzy, is due to report earnings on Wednesday.
“Markets are being hit by a perfect storm amid surging rates, worsening data in China and poor summer liquidity,” Emmanuel Cau, a strategist at Barclays Plc, wrote in a note.
In other markets, Bitcoin traded around $26,000.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX sold the cryptocurrency after writing down $373 million, The Wall Street Journal reported. 
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4:03 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0873
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2740
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 145.31 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 5.6% to $26,092
* Ether fell 3.3% to $1,659.96
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.25%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 2.62%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.68%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $81.31 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,918.60 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alice Atkins, Alex Nicholson and Cecile Gutscher.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Honor is a harder master than the law. –Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
August 17, 1908: The first successful flight of the Wright bothers’ aircraft takes place, marking a significant milestone in aviation history.
On Aug. 17, 1969, the Woodstock Music and Art Fair concluded near Bethel, N.Y. Go to article >>
1863: Fort Sumter siege began.

Davy Crockett, b. 1786.
Mae West, b. 1898.
Robet de Niro, b. 1943
Sean Penn, b. 1960.

‘Barbie’ tops ‘The Dark Knight’ to become Warner Bros.’ biggest movie ever at American box office.   Warner Bros. Discovery, which also owns CNN, announced that “Barbie” has made over $537 million at the US box office. The former title holder, the 2008 Batman film “The Dark Knight,” amassed $536 million.

London police investigating alleged theft of artifacts at British Museum.   A former employee at the museum has been dismissed for allegedly stealing gold jewelry and other artifacts, some dating back to the 15th century BC.

A new snake species has been named after Harrison Ford.  The snake’s scientific name, Tachymenoides harrisonfordi, was intended to be a fun play on Indiana Jones’ hatred for the scaly creatures.

13 billion-year-old ‘Maisie’s galaxy’ is one of the oldest objects in the universe, James Webb telescope reveals
Born less than 400 million years after the Big Bang, Maisie’s galaxy is officially one of the four oldest galaxies ever discovered. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Shanghai, China
A rainbow appears in the sky above buildings at Lujiazui Financial District.  Photograph: VCG/Getty Images

Teahupoo, Tahiti
Caroline Marks of the United States surfs in Heat 2 of the Quarterfinals at the Shiseido Tahiti Pro.  Photograph: Matt Dunbar/World Surf League/Getty Images

Toronto, Canada
People visit Illumi light installations with their dogs in the Mississauga area.  Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Market Closes for August 17^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34474.83	-290.91
		-0.84%
S&P 500	4370.36	-33.97
		-0.77%
NASDAQ	13316.93	-157.70
		-1.17%
TSX	19812.23	-86.84
		-0.44%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	31626.00	-140.82
		-0.44%
HANG SENG	18326.63	-2.67
		-0.01%
SENSEX	65151.02	-388.40
		-0.59%
FTSE 100*	7310.21	-46.67
		-0.63%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.768	3.778
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.584	3.615
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2741	4.2662
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3858	4.3596

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7386	0.7390
US $	1.3540	1.3532

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4716	0.6795
US $	1.0869	0.9201

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1904.20	1903.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.39	79.38

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1912: John Marks Templeton was born in Winchester, Tenn., to Vella Handly and Harvey Maxwell Templeton, a lawyer and cotton-gin operator. He went on to start the Templeton Growth Fund and invent the disclipline of global investing.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fourth day, dropping 0.4%, or 86.84 to 19,812.23 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since July 6.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.8%.
Bombardier Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.7%.
Today, 150 of 227 shares fell, while 72 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 2.9%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended March 10
* The index declined 1.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 1.6% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.9% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 10.8% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.6% in the past 5 days and fell 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 on a trailing basis and 14 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.15t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.83% compared with 11.63% in the previous session and the average of 10.54% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -48.3415| -0.8| 3/26
Information Technology | -37.5725| -2.6| 0/11
Industrials | -20.1538| -0.7| 4/22
Consumer Discretionary | -7.8442| -1.1| 4/10
Communication Services | -7.1198| -0.9| 0/5
Real Estate | -3.0919| -0.6| 4/16
Utilities | -1.7221| -0.2| 6/10
Materials | -1.1837| -0.1| 18/28
Health Care | -0.2606| -0.4| 1/3
Consumer Staples | 3.3181| 0.4| 1/10
Energy | 37.1160| 1.1| 31/9
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -23.9300| -3.8| -2.2| 53.3
Brookfield Corp | -10.0700| -2.2| -24.2| 3.4
RBC | -9.0520| -0.8| -35.3| -3.8
Couche-Tard | 6.6110| 1.8| 47.1| 17.4
Canadian Natural Resources | 7.7510| 1.3| 101.1| 8.9
Suncor Energy | 9.9000| 2.5| 16.0| 2.9
US
By Cristin Flanagan and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — US stocks fell for third day straight as a global bond market selloff intensified and tamped down enthusiasm for growth-oriented tech giants.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.2%, its worst three-day slide since February.
Investors are losing faith that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates after minutes from the last meeting suggested officials are considering tighter policy.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose by as much as 8 basis points to 4.33% on Thursday, approaching the highest level since 2007.
Data from before the New York market opened showed the labor market remains healthy, doing little to change the narrative.
“This week’s data hasn’t given them any reason to let their guard down,” said Mike Loewengart at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office. “With housing starts, retail sales, and jobless claims all reinforcing the picture of a robust economy, another rate hike can’t be ruled out, even if the Fed remains on hold next month.”
Wall Street’s fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX, touched 18 for the first time in seven sessions.
The VIX hasn’t reached above 30 — a level considered a sign of heightened volatility — since a series of bank failures rocked the market in March.
Investors will soon be turning to next week’s gathering of policy makers at Jackson Hole in Wyoming to gauge Fed sentiment.

The moves across bond markets have been sharp and swift this week.
Treasuries have been a key driver of the global debt selloff as resilience of the world’s largest economy defies expectations that a run of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes would spark a recession.
“Our baseline is the Fed will not likely alter rates at the next meeting but the following meeting decision is yet to be determined,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, wrote. “Treasury yields are hitting new highs as investors reset expectations about long-term inflation.”
In the UK, the surge in gilt yields comes after sticky inflation and strong wage data boosted investor bets that the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates further to 6% and keep them high for longer. Japan’s 20-year bond yield surged after a debt auction drew tepid investor demand.
China also continued to weigh on sentiment.
The picture emerging from property agents and private data providers suggest the slump in the real estate market may be worse than official reports show.
China ramped up its efforts to stem losses in its currency on Thursday by offering the most forceful guidance since October through its daily reference rate for the managed currency.
Authorities told state-owned banks to step up intervention in the currency market this week, in a push to prevent a surge in yuan volatility, according to people familiar with the matter.
Meanwhile, the dollar took a breather from a five-day climb while the pound continued to outperform.
Crude halted a three-day drop while gold edged up after closing below $1,900 an ounce for the first time since March. 

Key events this week:
* Eurozone CPI, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0871
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2745
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 145.77 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.7% to $27,872.76
* Ether fell 3.9% to $1,736.64
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.29%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 4.75%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to $80.06 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,919.30 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Isabelle Lee, Alex Nicholson, Richard Henderson and Alice Gledhill.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
One has to observe a man for oneself, as closely as possible before one can judge him.-Fyodor Dostoevsky, 1821-1881.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

August 16, 1988: IBM introduces software for artificial intelligence.
Madonna, b. 1958.
Elvis Presley, d. 1977.
Babe Ruth, d. 1948.

Ancient and iconic: These trees are competing for ‘Tree of the Year’.  Voting is open to the public this month and through Sep-timber. 
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

England’s Lionesses celebrate their semi-final victory over Australia. Photograph: Naomi Baker/The FA/Getty Images

A 12.5 metre-high sculpture of Emperor Wu of Han in Guazhou, Gansu Province, China Photograph: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

Tahiti, French Polynesia
The US surfer Kelly Slater jumps into the water at Teahupo’o during the World Surf League Shiseido Tahiti pro-surfing event.  Photograph: AFP/Getty.
Market Closes for August 16^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34765.74	-180.65
		-0.52%
S&P 500	4404.33	-33.53
		-0.76%
NASDAQ	13474.63	-156.42
		-1.15%
TSX	19899.07	-0.72
		—

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	31766.82	-472.07
		-1.46%
HANG SENG	18329.30	-251.81
		-1.36%
SENSEX	65539.42	+137.50
		+0.21%
FTSE 100*	7356.88	-32.76
		-0.44%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.778	3.749
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.615	3.587
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2662	4.2130
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3596	4.3145

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7390	0.7407
US $	1.3532	1.3501

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4723	0.6792
US $	1.0877	0.9194

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1903.85	1903.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	79.38	80.99

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1922: The nation’s first commercial broadcaster launched. AT&T kicked off the New York City radio station WEAF, which charged $50 for a 10-minute block of air.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 19,899.07 in Toronto.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 0.5%.
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 5.5%.
Today, 124 of 227 shares fell, while 102 rose; 4 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index declined 1.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 1.6% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.5% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 11.3% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.9% in the past 5 days and fell 1.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13 on a trailing basis and 14.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.15t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.63% compared with 11.71% in the previous session and the average of 10.53% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -15.1424| -0.7| 14/36
Financials | -13.6707| -0.2| 12/17
Communication Services | -1.7841| -0.2| 0/5
Real Estate | -0.9864| -0.2| 11/10
Health Care | 1.0891| 1.8| 4/0
Consumer Discretionary | 1.3666| 0.2| 6/8
Consumer Staples | 3.0418| 0.4| 9/2
Utilities | 3.8639| 0.5| 10/5
Industrials | 4.3259| 0.2| 11/15
Information Technology | 5.8519| 0.4| 6/5
Energy | 11.3321| 0.3| 19/21
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -6.0350| -0.5| -36.4| -3.0
Agnico Eagle Mines | -3.8730| -1.8| 1.8| -11.6
Wheaton Precious Metals | -3.5460| -2.0| -9.3| 6.2
CAE | 3.1380| 4.5| 123.6| 24.9
Constellation Software | 4.6700| 1.3| 77.1| 30.6
Suncor Energy | 10.9100| 2.8| 0.1| 0.3
US
By Isabelle Lee and Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — Pressure on US equities and Treasuries ramped up in the final minutes of Wednesday’s session as traders digested hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials at their last meeting.
The S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, slumping for the second day in a row, amid concerns the central bank would continue to raise interest rates.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 2.2% over a two-day losing streak as tech behemoths including Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. along with Tesla Inc. dragged on the equities benchmarks.
“The Fed has no choice but to keep it up until they are convinced that inflationary expectations are quashed,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said after the minutes from the central bank’s July meeting were released.  “Doing otherwise risks some of the embers reigniting. Even though two governors favored keeping rates steady in July, it is important to keep in mind that a pause is not a pivot.”
Technical factors are also behind the stock market’s recent dips.
The S&P 500 closed below its average price over the last 50 days for a second day after a wave of trading in zero-day options helped push the index below the trendline for the first time since March at the tail-end of the prior session.
US Treasury yields turned higher in the afternoon session with the 10-year approaching 4.3%.
Earlier this week, yields on the benchmark bond approached levels last reached in October.
Yield on the policy sensitive two-year closed in on 5%.
“The FOMC minutes reiterated many of the core themes that Powell delivered at the July press conference,” Ben Jeffery, a strategist at BMO Capital Markets wrote. “There was nothing here to derail our assumption that September will be another ‘skip,’ although another hike in November or December is firmly on the table if the data warrants.”
Among currencies, the pound led Group-of-10 peers after UK inflation topped expectations.
Meanwhile, China’s economic woes remain in the spotlight, despite a slew of stimulus steps by authorities.
The onshore yuan sank against the dollar while the yen fell to a level that triggered Japan’s intervention in September.
China’s central bank moved to boost fragile sentiment with a stronger-than-expected reference rate for the yuan and the largest injection of short term cash to the financial system since February.
So far the steps have failed to restore optimism.
Still, markets are not yet fully reflecting the risks from China’s deteriorating fundamentals, according to Tiffany Wilding, an economist and managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“Given the usual lags, deflationary spillovers have likely only just begun to impact global consumer markets,” Wilding wrote in a note to clients. “Discounting likely to accelerate over the coming quarters.”
Hot wage figures and US retail statistics had rattled markets on Tuesday, spurring bets tight central bank policy will be in place for longer.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned that inflation was “still too high.”
Corporate Highlights:
* London-listed BAE Systems Plc is in talks on a possible acquisition of Ball Corp.’s aerospace division, people with knowledge of the matter said.
* Intel Corp.’s $5.4 billion deal with Israel’s Tower Semiconductor Ltd. collapses after failing to win Chinese regulatory approval in time.
* Energy Transfer LP will buy Crestwood Equity Partners LP in a $7.1 billion all-equity deal allowing Energy Transfer to expand its US pipeline network.
* Target Corp. climbs after a surprising profit surge in the second quarter overshadows the company’s increasingly cautious outlook on the rest of the year.

Key events this week
* US initial jobless claims, US Conf. Board leading index, Thursday
* Eurozone CPI, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0875
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2720
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 146.36 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $29,073.57
* Ether fell 0.5% to $1,819.2
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.27%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $79.17 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.7% to $1,922.40 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang and Alex Nicholson.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in five years there’d be a shortage of sand. -Milton Friedman, 1912-2006.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
August 15, 1947: India gains independence from British rule, marking the end of centuries of colonialism and the birth of a new nation.

2001: Astronomers announced the discovery of the first solar system outside our own – two planets orbiting a star in the Big Dipper.  Go to article >>

Napoleon Bonaparte, French Emperor, b. 1769.
T.E. Lawrence, writer, b. 1888.
Julia Child, b. 1912.

Women’s World Cup: Spain secures spot in World Cup final
Three teams remain standing in the Women’s World Cup after Spain defeated Sweden today in an exhilarating semifinal match. Spain now faces either Australia or England in Sunday’s final.

Belgian university launches literary course to analyze Taylor Swift lyrics
A Belgian university is offering a “Swifterature” course dedicated to analyzing the literary merit of Taylor Swift’s discography.

The ‘Lunar Codex’ aims to bring human art to the moon
Physicist and artist Samuel Peralta is aiming to expand on the moon’s art collection by sending up tens of thousands of works from around the world

2,000-year-old gold treasure from Iron Age tribe unearthed by metal detectorists in Wales
It is the first time that Iron Age currency has been found in the country. Read More.

Gene therapy injection into the brain causes alcohol use disorder to stop – in monkeys
A small, proof-of-concept study reveals the potential of a one-off gene therapy to treat people with alcohol use disorder. Read More.

The largest asteroid impact crater on Earth is lurking beneath Australia, new evidence suggests
Geophysical evidence suggests there is a massive, magnetized structure deep beneath Australia. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Swimming Pool by Seunggu Kim
Swimming Pool Riverside Park in Seoul, where tight construction and leisure coexist. This collective leisure implicitly shows Korean society by revealing fast-paced lifestyle and community-based trust.

Lairg, Scotland
Sheep farmers gather at Lairg auction for the great sale of lamb. Renowned as one of the biggest one-day livestock markets in Europe, the annual lamb sale returns to Sutherland’s Lairg market, where 15,000 sheep from the northern Highlands come together for auction.  Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Salvation by overall winner International Portrait Photographer of the Year 2023, Forough Yavari of Australia. Born in Iran during the Iranian revolution, her work focuses on the narrative behind the lives of women. Photograph: Forough Yavaori.
Market Closes for August 15^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34946.39	-361.24
		-1.02%
S&P 500	4437.86	-51.86
		-1.16%
NASDAQ	13631.05	-157.28
		-1.14%
TSX	19899.79	-390.75
		-1.93%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32238.89	+178.98
		+0.56%
HANG SENG	18581.11	-192.44
		-1.03%
SENSEX	65401.92	+79.27
		+0.12%
FTSE 100*	7389.64	-117.51
		-1.57%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.749	3.691
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.587	3.539
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2130	4.1913
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3145	4.2888

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7407	0.7428
US $	1.3501	1.3463

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4721	0.6793
US $	1.0903	0.9172

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1903.75	1915.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.99	82.51

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1971, President Richard Nixon declared a 90-day freeze on wages and prices in an attempt to slow inflation, then running at an annual rate of about 4.5%. Within three years, inflation had accelerated to a record 12.2%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 1.9%, or 390.75 to 19,899.79 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2% on Oct. 11.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as all sectors lost; 209 of 227 shares fell, while 17 rose.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.2%.
Hudbay Minerals Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.7%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss three times. The next day, it declined after all three occasions
* The index declined 1.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 2.5% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.5% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 11.3% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.5% in the past 5 days and fell 1.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 14.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.21t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.71% compared with 10.16% in the previous session and the average of 10.48% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -122.2753| -1.9| 3/26
Materials | -81.2191| -3.4| 1/49
Energy | -74.0926| -2.1| 0/39
Industrials | -45.9785| -1.6| 3/23
Information Technology| -16.6138| -1.1| 2/9
Communication Services| -13.4494| -1.7| 1/4
Utilities | -11.3952| -1.3| 1/15
Consumer Staples | -10.9842| -1.3| 1/10
Consumer Discretionary| -8.1245| -1.1| 3/11
Real Estate | -5.6315| -1.2| 2/19
Health Care | -1.0005| -1.6| 0/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -27.5500| -2.2| -36.5| -2.6
TD Bank | -20.5000| -1.9| -12.6| -3.9
Canadian Natural Resources | -18.6500| -2.9| 30.2| 7.4
Cargo jet | 0.3800| 3.2| 62.1| -11.1
Quebecor | 0.3990| 1.1| 39.8| 11.1
Fairfax Financial | 0.4570| 0.3| -22.5| 41.3
US
By Emily Graffeo and Isabelle Lee
(Bloomberg) — The drop in US stocks deepened in the final hour of Tuesday trading amid signs the Federal Reserve’s fight with inflation was not yet done.
Shorter-dated US bonds gained as investors bought the dip.
The S&P 500 Index’s 1.2% drop sent the equities gauge below its average price over the last 50 days for the first time in more than three months, halting a streak of momentum that was by this measure the longest since September 2020.
“In the near-term, dips below 4450 can be bought while rallies up to 4550 should be faded,” Adam Crisafulli, analyst at Vital Knowledge, wrote of the benchmark’s drop. “The inability of the SPX over the course of several weeks to set new highs has steadily eroded psychology.”
US stocks sank after retail sales rose more than forecast, suggesting the economy can support higher rates and potentially dissuade decision makers from a policy pivot.
Financials weighed on the S&P 500 benchmark after a warning from Fitch that the ratings firm may downgrade larger lenders like JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America Corp., while Discover Financial Services was the worst performer after its chief executive officer resigned.
“The most recent data — retail sales — shows the economy is still hanging in pretty well,” Rhys Williams, chief strategist at Spouting Rock Asset Management, said by phone. “Clearly the economy is better than anybody expected six months ago.”
Williams is skeptical that inflation can be brought down, and remain at, the central bank’s 2% target rate this year.
Fed officials are also sounding a cautious note.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said at a conference Tuesday that while inflation has been coming down, “it’s still too high.”
In earnings, Home Depot Inc. beat the average analyst estimate, suggesting that US home improvement spending is performing slightly better than expected following an unprecedented boom during the pandemic.
More insight into the state of the consumer will come later this week when Target Corp. and Walmart Inc. are set to report.
Investors are growing wary that consumer-facing companies will be able to maintain their pricing power for much longer as the lagged effects of the Fed’s policy tightening take hold.
“Eventually — and I think we’ll see some of that now — those margins get eaten away,” Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, told Bloomberg Television. “Because companies can only raise prices so far, and you’re already seeing consumers begin to make noise and balk and stop buying some things.”
“We’ve been — since the first of the year — saying recession starts sometime between Labor Day and the end of the year,” he added. Doll is sticking with that prediction though he expects it to be a mild downturn.
Shorter-dated US Treasuries went higher as buyers stepped in amid a global bond selloff.
Options traders have been recalibrating bets to accommodate the possibility that interest rates and inflation will stay high for longer.
Yields on the 10-year reached 4.27%, the highest since October before paring gains while the two-year dipped after moving above 5%.

Investors are navigating a hawkish Federal Reserve, a slowdown in China and flare-ups across emerging markets after a record first half in stock markets.
A devaluation in Argentina and Russia’s emergency rate hike on Tuesday to stem the ruble’s slide added to the risk-off sentiment.

Still, Bank of America’s latest global survey of fund managers found investors the least pessimistic on stocks since February of last year, before the Fed began one of the most aggressive tightening cycles in decades.
They increasingly expect no recession at all within the next 18 months, and a “soft landing” in the next 12 months remains the base case, BofA strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.
Crude futures dropped to the lowest in a week as the prospect of a slowing economy in China weighed on sentiment.
In currencies, the British pound was the best performer in the Group of 10 as investors weighed the prospect of an outsized interest-rate hike after wage growth accelerated to the strongest pace on record.
The focus later this week will be on UK inflation data due Wednesday, followed by minutes from the Fed’s July policy meeting, as traders seek clues on central banks’ next moves. 
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0904
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2702
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 145.55 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $29,145.5
* Ether fell 0.9% to $1,825.93
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.21%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.67%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.59%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.9% to $80.96 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,934.30 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang, Cecile Gutscher, Michael Mackenzie, Sagarika Jaisinghani and Tassia Sipahutar.
Have a  lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Compassion is the basis for all morality. –Arthur Schopenhauer, 1788-1860.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

On Aug. 14, 1945, President Truman announced that Japan had surrendered unconditionally, ending World War II.  Go to article >>
1947: Pakistan gains independence from British rule, becoming an independent nation in the Indian subcontinent.

‘Ring of fire’ solar eclipse 2023: How to watch in-person (and virtually)
On Oct. 14, an epic ‘ring of fire’ annular solar eclipse will swoop across North America. Read More

Scientists uncover hidden math that governs genetic mutations
The ability of a gene to keep functioning despite mutations shows a surprising link to fundamental math. Read More

Strange, 300,000-year-old jawbone unearthed in China may come from vanished human lineage
Fragments of a jaw bone unearthed in China have a mosaic of features that are present in both modern and archaic humans. Read More

10 best cuisines in the world.  Feeling hungry? If not, you probably will be after seeing these culinary delights around the globe.

Mysterious question mark spotted by NASA telescope.  A cosmic object in deep space is bewildering some people, but scientists think they know what it might be.

PHOTOS  OF THE DAY

Ratnapura, Sri Lanka
An illuminated aircraft flightpath and the Milky Way were seen in the sky during the Perseid meteor shower associated with the comet Swift-Tuttle. The meteors are called the Perseids because they appear from the general direction of the constellation Perseus.  Photograph: Thilina Kaluthotage/NurPhoto/Shutterstock.

Kinderdijk, Netherlands
Wild geese silhouetted above a wind pump in South Holland. About a third of the country is below sea level and wind pumps prevent the land from being flooded.  Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Cambridge, UK
Shire horses Bryn and Cosmo from Waldburg Shires stable harvesting the wildflower meadow at King’s College, Cambridge, before turning and carting the hay on a traditional wain. The bales will be used to propagate more wildflower meadows across the city, and the hay offered to local farmers as winter feed for livestock.
Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA
Market Closes for August 14^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	35307.63	+26.23
		+0.07%
S&P 500	4489.72	+25.67
		+0.57%
NASDAQ	13788.33	+143.48
		+1.05%
TSX	20290.54	-117.03
		-0.57%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32059.91	-413.74
		-1.27%
HANG SENG	18773.55	-301.64
		-1.58%
SENSEX	65401.92	+79.27
		+0.12%
FTSE 100*	7507.15	-17.01
		-0.23%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.691	3.641
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.539	3.483
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1913	4.1581
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.2888	4.2633

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7428	0.7436
US $	1.3463	1.3448

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4679	0.6812
US $	1.0907	0.9168

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1915.80	1920.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.51	83.19

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1935, the Social Security Act was signed into law, ensuring retirement income for all working Americans. Payroll taxes were set at 1%, for both workers and employers, on the first $3,000 of earnings.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.6% at 20,290.54 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.5% on Aug. 2 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.3%.
Nutrien Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.9%.
NorthWest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust had the largest drop, falling 6.9%.
Today, 150 of 227 shares fell, while 75 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 0.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 4.1% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.7% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 13.5% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.3% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 on a trailing basis and 14.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.23t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.16% compared with 10.58% in the previous session and the average of 10.40% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -42.7138| -1.8| 8/42
Energy | -31.6482| -0.9| 9/30
Financials | -25.3837| -0.4| 9/19
Communication Services | -6.6751| -0.8| 0/5
Real Estate | -4.8171| -1.0| 4/17
Industrials | -3.7683| -0.1| 14/12
Utilities | -2.6869| -0.3| 7/9
Consumer Staples | -2.5624| -0.3| 4/7
Consumer Discretionary | -0.8245| -0.1| 7/7
Health Care | 0.8294| 1.4| 4/0
Information Technology | 3.2191| 0.2| 9/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Nutrien | -12.1200| -3.9| -39.2| -13.1
Constellation Software | -8.5860| -2.3| 23.7| 30.4
RBC | -6.8140| -0.6| -36.6| -0.3
Thomson Reuters | 1.4680| 0.8| -26.1| 15.9
Waste Connections | 2.1810| 0.6| -29.6| 6.1
Shopify | 9.0670| 1.5| -33.9| 60.3
US
By Vildana Hajric and Isabelle Lee
(Bloomberg) — Tech stocks had their best day in two weeks, helping US equities edge higher in light trading as traders weighed the prospect of a soft landing for the economy.
Treasuries fell.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2% as AI-favorite Nvidia Corp. and other technology giants drove Monday’s advance.
On Friday, the tech-heavy benchmark had notched its longest weekly losing streak this year, the gauge has slid 3.5% in August.
Smaller stocks were under pressure with the Russell 2000 touching the lowest in a month as risk-appetite waned.
August is typically a slow month due to low liquidity and moves in either direction should not be taken seriously, according to Jason Draho, head of asset allocation Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“The fundamental outlook for the US economy hasn’t materially changed in the past two weeks,” Draho wrote.  “Investors should take any data point or two and week-to-week market moves with a grain of salt, especially during the summer slowdown.”
Treasury yields wavered before ticking higher as high-grade corporate bond sales weighed on prices.
The policy sensitive two-year extended an advance into the fourth day to 4.96%, while he 10-year traded at 4.19%.
Traders are betting interest rates will outpace inflation for years to come while investors sitting on record first-half gains are having to contend with central bankers warning they are in no rush to cut interest rates.
“Some retracement of the broad market since July 31 suggests to us a pause that refreshes has likely occurred, rather than the end of the bull market,” John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., wrote in a research note. “We remain of the view based on improving economic and corporate fundamentals that the US economy could actually skirt a recession this cycle.”
Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, takes a dimmer view saying the economy is already in a rolling recession that will hit the services sector next.
“Consumption, profit margins and corporate pricing power are yet to be reset, as the delayed impact of tighter policy should ultimately pressure nominal gains,” she wrote.
Updates from China unnerved markets on Monday amid concerns about Country Garden Holdings Co. and private-wealth manager, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group Co. Country Garden, once China’s biggest developer, has emerged as the latest flashpoint of the country’s property woes.
“The more days that go by without a comprehensive fiscal stimulus plan the more clear it becomes there will not be one,” Brad Bechtel, a Jefferies strategist said of China’s central bank. “The big bazooka is not coming.”
Focus later this week will be on minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting as traders seek clues on the central bank’s next move.
Investors who’d bet on a pivot to easier policy this year are having to adjust their bets as officials signal they will keep interest rates higher for longer.
In emerging markets, Argentina’s already-distressed debt sagged after a populist who vowed to burn down the central bank won surprisingly strong support in a primary vote.

The greenback strengthened while the offshore yuan fell to its weakest level since November and the ruble crashed through the level of 100 to the dollar for the first time since March.
In commodities, gold and crude slumped.

Corporate Highlights:
* Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc. plunged by a record 34% on concern that its power lines may be linked to the deadly Maui wildfires.
* US Steel Corp. surged 37% after the company rejected a $7.25 billion takeover offer from peer Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and said it will instead start a review of its strategic options.
* Tesla Inc. slipped 1.2%, triggering a selloff for other producers of electric vehicles, after it rolled out a new round of price cuts in China.
* Nikola Corp. plummeted after the manufacturer announced it will recall trucks and temporarily stop sales after several battery fires.
Key events this week:
* China medium-term lending, retail sales, industrial production, fixed-asset investment, FX net settlement, Tuesday
* Japan industrial production, GDP, Tuesday
* UK jobless claims, unemployment, Tuesday
* US retail sales, empire manufacturing, business inventories, cross-border investment, Tuesday
* Reserve Bank of Australia policy minutes, Tuesday
* Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks, Tuesday
* China property prices, Wednesday
* Eurozone industrial production, GDP, Wednesday
* UK CPI, Wednesday
* US FOMC minutes, housing starts, industrial production, Wednesday
* US initial jobless claims, US Conf. Board leading index, Thursday
* Eurozone CPI, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0905
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2681
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 145.46 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $29,322.86
* Ether fell 0.7% to $1,839.81
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.19%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.64%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.57%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8% to $82.55 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,939.80 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
We all have strength enough to endure the misfortunes of others. –François Duc de La Rochefoucauld, 1613-1680.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Friday.

August 11, 1786: Captain Francis Light establishes the British  colony of Penang in Malaysia.
1965: Watts Riot, Los Angeles.
1998: British Petroleum purchased Amoco for $49 billion, in what was the largest industrial takeover in history, at that moment in time.  Go to article >>

Alex Haley, writer, b.1921.
‘Wrinkle in space-time’ enables James Webb to capture stunning image of most distant star ever detected
The ancient star Earendel is more than twice as hot as the sun and around a million times brighter. Read More

Mars is spinning faster, and scientists aren’t sure why
Data from NASA’s InSight mission shows that Mars’s rotation is speeding up and its days are growing slightly shorter. Read More

Bizarre ‘demon’ particle found inside superconductor could help unlock a ‘holy grail’ of physics
The transparent, chargeless quasiparticle could shed more light on the underlying mechanics of superconductivity. Read More

‘Quantum superchemistry’ observed for the 1st time ever
A new type of chemistry performed at very cold temperatures on very small particles enables quick, precise reactions. Read More

The world’s largest cruise ship is polarizing opinion.  The Icon of the Seas is provoking strong emotions online. Many travelers are impressed by the ship’s vibrant colors and extraordinary size, but others compared it to “being stuck on a floating Walmart.”

The Emmys have a new date.  TV’s biggest awards event has been postponed to January 2024 in light of the ongoing writers’ and actors’ strikes in Hollywood.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bristol, UK
Hot air balloons fly during a mass launch at the annual Balloon Fiesta.  Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters.

Dartford, UK
A woman photographs statues of Mick Jagger and Keith Richards, who met as teenagers at the town’s train station in 1961 and formed the Rolling Stones a year later.  Photograph: Carl Court/Getty Images

Lake Ohrid, Albania
Divers search the area after archaeologists from the University of Bern confirmed that the Palafitte settlement of Lin dated back to 5,800-6,000BC, making it the oldest lakeside village in Europe ever discovered. The village is believed to have consisted of houses built on stilts above the lake’s surface or in areas regularly flooded by rising waters.  Photograph: Adnan Beci/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for August 11^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	35281.40	+105.25
		+0.30%
S&P 500	4464.05	-4.78
		-0.11%
NASDAQ	13644.85	-93.14
		-0.68%
TSX	20407.64	+64.76
		+0.32%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32473.65	+269.32
		+0.84%
HANG SENG	19075.19	-173.07
		-0.90%
SENSEX	65322.65	-365.53
		-0.56%
FTSE 100*	7524.16	-94.44
		-1.24%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.641	3.592
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.483	3.478
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1581	4.1036
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.2633	4.2528

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7436	0.7435
US $	1.3448	1.3450

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4722	0.6793
US $	1.0948	0.9134

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1920.90	1922.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	83.19	82.82

Market Commentary:

📈 On this day in 1928, while accepting the Republican presidential nomination, Herbert Hoover declared: “We in America today are nearer to the final triumph over poverty than ever before in the history of any land. The poorhouse is vanishing from among us.” Unfortunately, just over one year later, the Great Depression arrived.

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.3%, or 64.76 to 20,407.64 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Aug. 1.
Enbridge Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 0.8%. Altus Group Ltd/Canada had the largest increase, rising 16.1%.
Today, 146 of 227 shares rose, while 75 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 0.8%
* The index advanced 2.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 5.4% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.1% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 14.2% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 on a trailing basis and 14.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.22t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.58% compared with 10.62% in the previous session and the average of 10.49% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 34.2762| 1.0| 38/2
Materials | 23.2533| 1.0| 34/14
Industrials | 17.9908| 0.6| 18/7
Financials | 9.5990| 0.2| 21/7
Real Estate | 2.9398| 0.6| 10/10
Consumer Staples | 2.4914| 0.3| 5/6
Health Care | 0.6379| 1.1| 3/0
Communication Services | 0.1775| 0.0| 1/4
Utilities | -5.0405| -0.6| 7/9
Consumer Discretionary | -9.6654| -1.3| 2/12
Information Technology | -11.9656| -0.8| 7/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Enbridge | 5.8110| 0.8| -8.6| -6.7
Franco-Nevada | 5.5340| 2.2| -5.9| 4.0
TD Bank | 5.2540| 0.5| -61.2| -1.6
Canadian Tire | -3.4310| -5.5| 116.5| 10.8
Magna Intl | -4.1160| -2.8| 184.8| 1.2
Shopify | -13.6800| -2.2| -48.9| 58.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A renewed slide in tech mega-caps and mixed economic data left stocks struggling to find direction on Friday.
Bond yields rose.
In a choppy trading session, the S&P 500 closed with a small loss.
The Nasdaq 100 notched its longest weekly losing streak this year, hovering near 15,000.
It last closed below that mark in June.
Nvidia Corp. — which has more than tripled in 2023 — extended a four-day decline to almost 10%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a mild gain.
There’s little question the stock market has lost a lot of its upside momentum, according to Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.
“As we move closer to the usually volatile September/October timeframe, it does seem like the ‘dippers’ are losing some of their strength,” Maley noted. “This does not mean that the stock market will roll over in a serious manner over the next month or two, but it does raise the odds of a correction in the not-too-distant future.”
Earlier Friday, the US equity benchmark came closer to its 50-day moving average, a technical level that could portend further losses if breached during a market decline.
Still, with stocks pressing moderately toward oversold territory on a short-term basis, the path lower wouldn’t be a straight and narrow one, according to Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
That means stocks are soon poised to attempt “another oversold rally effort,” he noted.
Bill Gross, the one-time bond king, said stock and Treasury bulls are wrong as both markets are “overvalued.”
The former chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. told Bloomberg Television that the fair value of the 10-year Treasury yield is about 4.5%, compared with the current level of 4.16%.
Early this month, a key market indicator that has been described as possibly the “most important number in finance” tumbled to its lowest since 2004, worrying investors that it was sending a bearish signal. Yet, history shows that despite the extreme move, the typically ominous sign is instead pointing to more gains.
The plunge in the equity risk premium — which measures the difference between the earnings yield on the S&P 500 and the current rate on 10-year Treasury notes — signal stocks are getting overvalued relative to bonds.
But a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis found that the gauge is now at a level where returns for the S&P 500 historically averaged in high single digits over a 12-month horizon.
Meantime, Friday’s economic reports did little to alter swap market bets that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest-rate hikes next month — with traders continuing to expect the central bank will also refrain from claiming victory over inflation.
Consumer inflation expectations as measured by the University of Michigan unexpectedly fell in early August, despite higher gasoline and grocery costs.
Meantime, producer
prices grew last month by more than expected, primarily due to increases in certain service categories.
Treasuries are on course for a record year of inflows as investors chasing some of the highest yields in months pile into cash and bonds, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists led by Michael Hartnett.
Cash funds attracted $20.5 billion and investors poured $6.9 billion into bonds in the week through August 9, they wrote in a note, citing data from EPFR Global.
Meanwhile, US stocks had their first outflow in three weeks at $1.6 billion.
Elsewhere, UK bond yields climbed on data showing the British economy delivered its strongest quarterly growth in more than a year, a surprising show of resilience that will keep pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates further.
Oil posted its longest streak of weekly gains since mid-2022 as multiple reports forecasting increased demand gave a fresh boost to a rally built on increased supply-disruption risks and extended Saudi production cuts.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0947
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2699
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 144.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $29,362.46
* Ether fell 0.4% to $1,842.1
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.17%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 2.62%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 16 basis points to 4.53%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $83.12 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,945.70 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Rob Verdonck, Richard Henderson, Alex Nicholson and Cecile Gutscher.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
If you realized how powerful your thoughts are, you would never think a negative thought.  –Peace Pilgrim, 1908-1981.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

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