Category: Newsletters

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On February 15, 1965, Canada adopts maple leaf flag: In accordance with a formal proclamation by Queen Elizabeth II of England, a new Canadian national flag is raised above Parliament Hill in Ottawa, the capital of Canada. Read more.
On February 15, 1950, Walt Disney’s animated feature Cinderella opens in theaters across the United States. Read more.
On February 15, 1903, First Teddy bear goes on sale: toy store owner and inventor Morris Michtom places two stuffed bears in his shop window, advertising them as Teddy bears. Read more.

Ancient rock art in Argentinian cave may have transmitted information across 100 generations
A cave in Patagonia houses the oldest known pigment-based rock art in South America.

What would happen if you moved at the speed of light?
In science fiction, people often find a way to move at the speed of light. But you might find yourself asking, could your body survive going so fast? What would happen to it? Read more.

5 beguiling heart-shaped objects found in space
From a ‘potentially hazardous’ asteroid to a pair of galaxies unable to quell their attraction, here are five of the most beautiful heart-shaped objects seen in space.

How a TV show changed an industry?
“The Love Boat” first aired in 1977 and went on to become one of the most successful shows in TV history. Here’s how it transformed the cruise industry

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine
A wintry reflection of the city from Khortytsia Island as the conflict with Russia continues
Photograph: Ukrinform/Rex/Shutterstock

Glen Coe, UK
Wild swimmers brave the clear icy water at the Meeting of Three Waters in Glen Coe in the Scottish Highlands
Photograph: Katielee Arrowsmith/SWNS

New York City, US
People walk through the snow in Central Park
Photograph: Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 15^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38773.12	+348.85
		+0.91%
S&P 500	5029.73	+29.11
		+0.58%
NASDAQ	15906.18	+47.03
		+0.30%
TSX	21222.69	+333.29
		+1.60%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38157.94	+454.62
		+1.21%
HANG SENG	15944.63	+65.25
		+0.41%
SENSEX	72050.38	+227.55
		+0.32%
FTSE 100*	7597.53	+29.13
		+0.38%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.542	3.557
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.411	3.422
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2300	4.2554
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4086	4.4346

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7428	0.7385
US $	1.3463	1.3541

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4506	0.6894
US $	1.0775	0.9281

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1985.10	1996.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	76.64	77.87

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1985, the U.S. government began allowing Treasury securities to be carved up. Investors could now hedge more easily against changes in interest rates by trading the interest or principal of a bond, vastly increasing the market’s liquidity.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 1.6%, or 333.29 to 21,222.69 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 2% on Dec. 13.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 200 of 225 shares rose, while 24 fell.
Manulife Financial Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 8.7%.
Seabridge Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 19.1%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain four times. The next day, it advanced three times for an average 0.6% and declined 0.5% once
* So far this week, the index rose 1%
* The index advanced 2.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.1% below its 52-week high on Jan. 31, 2024 and 13.5% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 0.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 on a trailing basis and 16.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.31t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 12.43% compared with 11.52% in the previous session and the average of 9.89% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 105.2927| 1.6| 24/3
Energy | 102.8465| 2.9| 39/2
Materials | 48.8504| 2.4| 51/1
Information Technology | 34.5952| 1.8| 7/3
Industrials | 19.0906| 0.6| 22/4
Utilities | 13.8587| 1.7| 15/0
Real Estate | 5.3998| 1.1| 16/4
Communication Services | 4.2054| 0.6| 4/1
Health Care | 0.5184| 0.8| 4/0
Consumer Staples | -0.6469| -0.1| 10/1
Consumer Discretionary | -0.7260| -0.1| 8/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Manulife Financial | 33.9600| 8.7| 109.0| 13.9
Shopify | 31.6800| 3.4| 43.0| 9.6
Canadian Natural Resources | 25.3800| 4.1| 121.7| -2.4
Constellation Software | -1.6010| -0.3| 40.8| 12.9
Restaurant Brands | -2.8140| -1.2| 48.9| -1.1
Couche-Tard | -5.2240| -1.2| 50.5| 6.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders looked past mixed economic data, sending stocks and bonds higher before an inflation reading that will help define the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
The S&P 500 hit another record — despite losses in its most-influential group: technology.
A drop in retail sales helped soothe investors’ nerves about overheated consumer demand— especially after all the jitters caused by a strong inflation print earlier this week.
Bonds saw small moves, with Fed swaps fully pricing in a rate cut in June.
The dollar fell.
For months, investors have been dealing with clashing economic narratives.
Progress toward lower inflation has shaped the view that the Fed can cut interest rates from multiyear highs to avoid pushing the US into a recession.
At the same time, the economy has outperformed expectations, giving the central bank cover to delay.
“The data is complicated — a true dichotomy,” said Gina Bolvin president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “The market will be volatile as it digests the data and scrutinizes every data point.”
The S&P 500 rose to around 5,030, erasing this week’s losses.
Banks and energy companies rallied, while Tesla Inc. climbed over 6%.
In late hours, Applied Materials Inc. gave a bullish revenue forecast.
Treasury 10-year yields retreated two basis points to 4.23%.
A hotter-than-expected US inflation print earlier this week hasn’t dimmed the outlook for equities, and any selloff is a buying opportunity ahead of a Fed pivot, according to Citigroup strategists.
The team led by Scott Chronert maintained its year-end target for the S&P 500 at 5,100.
They remain overweight tech and recommend adding cyclical exposure via industrial and financial shares.
A seemingly tireless rally in US equities can persist as long as excess liquidity has traders comfortable buying, according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
However, she expects liquidity to dry up later this year.
“As long as there’s excess liquidity in the system, we’re going to have the ability for investors to come in and think that they’re getting a bargain and participate in all asset classes when there’s some evidence of weakness,” Shalett told Bloomberg Television.
The amount of money that investors are parking at a major Fed facility dropped below $500 billion for the first time since 2021.
Market participants have been closely watching the pace at which the so-called RRP drains: Some on Wall Street warn that the draining facility is evidence that excess liquidity has been removed from the financial system — that bank reserve balances aren’t as abundant as policymakers believe.
A hot consumer price index earlier this week roiled financial markets, with traders resetting their bets on Fed rate-cuts in 2024.
Next up is Friday’s producer price index — which wouldn’t normally get as much attention from markets as the CPI — but will be highly scrutinized this time around.
“Tomorrow’s PPI will be closely watched by markets and should drive the near-term direction for the equity and bond markets,” said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report.
Signs that inflation anxiety remains potent included strong demand for Treasury options strategies targeting 10-year yields to exceed 4.4% in the coming weeks, a level last seen in November.
Aside from retail sales, a reading on factory production also pointed to a loss of momentum — but didn’t necessarily signal significant deterioration in the economy.
In fact, Thursday’s data also showed sentiment among homebuilders hit a six-month high and jobless claims declined.
“Today’s weak retail sales and middle-of-the-road jobless claims total may help soothe the market’s nerves in the near term,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “But there may still be an element of ‘altitude sickness’ at work, since the higher the market rallies, the more vulnerable it may be to setbacks when individual economic numbers don’t fit the rate-cutting narrative.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc., racing to add more artificial intelligence capabilities, is nearing the completion of a critical new software tool for app developers that would step up competition with Microsoft Corp.
* Alphabet Inc. sank after a report that ChatGPT owner OpenAI is developing a web search product that would compete with Google.
* Microsoft Corp. will make four exclusive Xbox games available for Nintendo Co.’s Switch and Sony Group Corp.’s PlayStation, sharing homegrown titles with rivals in the first significant way as the company looks to boost revenue in a stagnant gaming market.
* Digital World Acquisition Corp., the blank-check firm that’s been looking to take Donald Trump’s media company public, soared after receiving a long-awaited nod from the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
* The Justice Department plans to scrutinize the new streaming service proposed by Walt Disney Co., Fox Corp. and Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. over concerns it could harm consumers, media rivals and sports leagues.
* Nvidia Corp., the chipmaker at the heart of an artificial intelligence spending boom, disclosed investments in Arm Holdings Plc, SoundHound AI Inc. and the biotech company Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Key Events This Week:
* US housing starts, PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday
* Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks, Friday
* ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0771
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2596
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 149.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $51,701.41
* Ether rose 1.7% to $2,826.92
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.23%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.36%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.05%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $78.17 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,004.17 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“Where there is no novelty, there can be no curiosity.”– Aphra Behn

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Valentine’s Day.
It’s Ash Wednesday too.

February 14, 1876: Alexander Graham Bell and Elisha Gray apply separately for telephone patents, the Suprem Court eventually rules Bell the rightful inventor.
February 14^th, 2003: Dolly the sheep – the first mammal cloned from an adult – was put to death at age 6 due to premature aging and disease. Go to article >>

A cousin to the Mediterranean diet
Recent studies show the Atlantic diet, a cousin to the popular Mediterranean diet, may help reduce chronic disease.

Disneyland’s Mickey, Minnie, Donald and Goofy want to join a union
Disneyland employees who perform as various characters at the theme park are seeking to join the Actor’s Equity Association. 

Why is Valentine’s Day candy so expensive?
Some holiday editions of popular candies are priced higher than the regular versions of the sugary treats. Here are the reasons behind the markups.

California-size Antarctic ice sheet once thought stable may actually be at tipping point for collapse
Researchers have discovered the base of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, which holds enough ice to raise sea levels by as much as 10 feet, may already be partially thawed. Read More.

Einstein’s predictions mean rare ‘gravitational lasers’ could exist throughout the universe, new paper claims
A new study combining two of Albert Einstein’s famous predictions suggests that ripples in space-time can combine into “gravitational lasers” that fire out of black holes in random directions across the cosmos. Read More.

Scientists may have accidentally found mystery magma reservoir in volcano less region of Alaska
While tracking seismic activity on Denali, scientists stumbled upon an anomaly that could indicate the presence of magma. Read More.

From the Late Night hosts:
“According to the latest numbers, Sunday night’s Super Bowl surpassed the moon landing to become the most-watched U.S. broadcast of all time. And it can’t be a coincidence that the two biggest broadcasts of all time were faked by the C.I.A.” — SETH MEYERS

“In the same statement, former President Trump said that his daughter-in-law Lara Trump should be the co-chair of the R.N.C. and that her husband Eric should be ‘ambassador to wherever’s farthest.’” — SETH MEYERS

“They’re entrusting the party’s future to the wise judgment of someone who married Eric.” — JIMMY FALLON

“I say, why stop with Lara? A future Trump administration could have Jared as chief of staff, Ivanka as ambassador to the U.N., and Don Jr. as the head of the D.E.A., the Drug Enjoyment Agency.” — STEPHEN COLBERT

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Inverclyde, Scotland
A rainbow arches across the sky behind Perch Lighthouse in the Clyde at Port Glasgow
Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA
Nong Nooch, Thailand
Couples ride elephants during a Valentine’s Day celebration at a botanical garden
Photograph: Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters
California, US
‘Lassen volcanic national park. Photo taken from our house in the foothills east of Redding following recent snowfall.’
Photograph: Ed Condit
Market Closes for February 14^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38424.27	+151.52
		+0.40%
S&P 500	5000.62	+47.45
		+0.96%
NASDAQ	15859.15	+203.55
		+1.30%
TSX	20889.40	+304.43
		+1.48%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37703.32	-260.65
		-0.69%
HANG SENG	15879.38	+132.80
		+0.84%
SENSEX	71822.83	+267.64
		+0.37%
FTSE 100*	7568.40	+56.12
		+0.75%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.557	3.651
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.422	3.471
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2554	4.3143
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4346	4.4628

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7385	0.7371
US $	1.3541	1.3567

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4534	0.6881
US $	1.0733	0.9317

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1996.10	2015.20
Oil
WTI Crude Future	77.87	77.87

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1946, the first general purpose computer was unveiled. The Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer was hailed by the New York Times as “an amazing machine which applies electronic speeds for the first time to mathematical tasks hitherto too difficult and cumbersome for solution.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.5% at 20,889.40 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 2% on Dec. 13 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 2.3%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 169 of 225 shares rose, while 48 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.2%.
Goeasy Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 8.0%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain five times. The next day, it advanced four times for an average 0.5% and declined 0.5% once
* The index advanced 0.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.7% below its 52-week high on Jan. 31, 2024 and 11.8% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.4% in the past 5 days and fell 0.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 on a trailing basis and 15.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year * The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.26t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.52% compared with 10.63% in the previous session and the average of 9.78% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 111.0389| 1.7| 26/1
Industrials | 72.6955| 2.4| 21/5
Information Technology | 63.7624| 3.4| 10/0
Consumer Staples | 25.9624| 2.9| 7/4
Consumer Discretionary | 13.3061| 1.7| 13/0
Utilities | 11.5523| 1.5| 14/1
Real Estate | 8.6988| 1.8| 19/1
Materials | 8.3000| 0.4| 36/13
Communication Services | 3.6689| 0.5| 4/1
Health Care | 0.5890| 0.9| 3/0
Energy | -15.1290| -0.4| 16/22
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 37.2400| 4.2| 35.8| 5.9
RBC | 24.6100| 2.0| -22.1| -2.2
Intact Financial | 18.7400| 7.2| 158.6| 9.6
Suncor Energy | -1.4490| -0.4| 81.4| 0.6
Barrick Gold | -1.7180| -0.7| 22.4| -20.5
CAE | -6.1870| -9.8| 261.7| -10.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A renewed wave of dip buying sent stocks and bonds higher, following a slide triggered by an unexpected pickup in US inflation.
As investors awaited the next few economic reports that will be key in shaping the Federal Reserve’s rate path, Treasuries rebounded — led by gains in shorter maturities.
Equities closed near session highs, with big tech leading the way.
Nvidia Corp. topped Alphabet Inc.’s market value as the chip giant’s rally shows no signs of cooling.
Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — tumbled after a surge fueled by a reset in traders rate-cut bets.
“The stock market never moves higher without fits and starts along the way,” said Jeremy Straub at Coastal Wealth.
“The economy remains strong and isn’t in need of lower interest rates, which is ultimately supportive of stock prices.”
The S&P 500 reclaimed its 5,000 mark, while gains in the Nasdaq 100 topped 1%.
In late hours, Cisco Systems Inc., the largest maker of computer networking equipment, said it plans to cut thousands of jobs after a slowdown in corporate technology spending wiped out its sales growth.
Two-year US yields fell eight basis points to 4.58%.
Bitcoin climbed above $51,000. Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. says the stock-market bounce is giving investors a lot of relief from Tuesday’s “scare.” However, he points out that Treasury yields remain at or very-near their recent highs.
“Therefore, if those yields do not roll over very quickly, it’s something that could finally create somewhat impactful headwinds for the stock market,” Maley noted.
A Bloomberg index of global debt has dropped 3.5% this year, wiping out all of its gains since Dec. 12, the day before the Fed announcement that month.
Slower-than-forecast UK inflation numbers for January offered some relief to Treasuries on Wednesday, lowering the US 10-year yield after Tuesday’s 14-basis-point surge.
To Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research, the market remains a “show me” story.
“For the overall market to experience an official correction, we believe investors will need to see additional evidence that the Fed won’t cut in-line with expectations and/or the growth outlook is decelerating fast enough to spark
recession fears,” he noted.
“The ‘hot’ inflation data do not change our base case for a soft landing of slower growth, falling inflation, and 100 bps of Fed rate cuts this year, likely starting in the second quarter,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management. “But we are continuing to monitor the incoming data and the start of rate cuts could be delayed should the economic prints remain strong.”
The reversal in bond yields Wednesday also favored a rebound in big tech, the group that has powered the stock-market resurgence.
A day after the Nasdaq 100 popped above 18,000 for the first time, investors are once again grappling with what the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates means for tech valuations that are back at levels exceeded only during the pandemic-era rebound and the dot-com bubble.
Yet the Nasdaq’s 1.6% slide Tuesday was only the worst in two weeks, and a measure of implied volatility on the index remained firmly in calm territory.
But the prospect of sticky inflation leaves bulls clinging to a Goldilocks scenario that sees the American economy continue to thrive — without generating pricing pressures that force the Fed back into rate hikes.
From a technical perspective, Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott says there will possibly be further “choppy back-and-forth action” this week as more Fed officials are expected to chime in on inflation data ahead of the producer price index on Friday.
He’s keeping a close eye on the 4,920 level for the S&P 500, which was the pivot point from Tuesday’s session.
“A break below this threshold would trigger more selling pressures ahead,” he noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* Uber Technologies Inc. will buy back as much as $7 billion in shares to return capital to shareholders after reporting its first full year of operating profit and consistent positive free cash flow in 2023.
* Lyft Inc. issued a massive correction to its outlook for earnings margin in 2024, saying its margin is expected to expand by 50 basis points — not the 500 basis points written into an earnings presentation released earlier on Tuesday.
* Airbnb Inc. ended 2023 stronger than analysts’ had expected but suggested that demand in the current quarter wouldn’t be as robust as the last.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. reported revenue that topped estimates and executives said deposit growth is outpacing that of last year.

Key Events This Week:
* Japan GDP, industrial production, Thursday
* US Empire manufacturing, initial jobless claims, industrial production, retail sales, business inventories, Thursday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Thursday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Thursday
* Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks, Thursday
* ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks, Thursday
* US housing starts, PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday
* Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks, Friday
* ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0727
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2564
* The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 150.60 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.2% to $51,661.01
* Ether rose 5% to $2,763.94
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.27%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.34%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 11 basis points to 4.04%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to $76.62 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,990.66 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Edward Bolingbroke and Garfield Reynolds.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You don’t love because, you love despite; not for the virtues, but despite the faults. –William Faulkner, 1897-1962.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Shrove Tuesday.

February 13^th, 1633: Italian astronomer Galileo Galilei arrived in Rome for trial before Inquisition for professing belief that earth revolves around the Sun.
1741: First magazine published in the U.S.
1945: Fire bombing of Dresden.
2005:  Ray Charles won eight posthumous Grammy awards for his final album, “Genius Loves Company.” Go to article >>

Peter Gabriel, b. 1950.

11,000-year-old submerged stone wall discovered off Germany was once used to trap reindeer
The wall may be among the oldest hunting structures on Earth and one of the largest Stone Age structures ever found in Europe. Read More.

Medieval iron glove, likely worn by a knight, discovered near Swiss castle
The right-handed glove would have been worn by a knight in the 14th century. Read More.

Is it possible to have too many antioxidants?
Antioxidants have long been touted as disease-fighting molecules, and it’s easy to assume that the more of them you eat, the healthier you will be. But research shows that larger doses can actually be harmful.
Full Story: Live Science (2/12).

Watch the 1st X-class solar flare of 2024 erupt from the sun in explosive fashion
An X-class flare, the most powerful type of solar flare, erupted from the sun on Feb. 9. Lucky Earth wasn’t in the firing line. Read More.

Retailers are working to meet Valentine’s Day demand
Cocoa prices are soaring. Will it affect your Valentine’s Day chocolate?

Tiger Woods launches new apparel partnership
The golf star is aligning with a new clothing company after ending a 27-year Nike partnership.

This underwater wall was built more than 11,000 years ago
Scientists say this Stone Age megastructure wasn’t formed by nature, but rather by hunter-gatherers who lived thousands of years ago.

Greenland has lost ice 36 times the size of New York
Swaths of the country that were once covered in ice and snow have been transformed into wetlands or shrub areas. View photos here

Jon Stewart is back on ‘The Daily Show’
Monday marked the first night that Jon Stewart returned to hosting “The Daily Show” after more than eight years away. Here’s how the show went.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Lake District, UK
A hidden heart shape is revealed at the Elterwater Quarry after water levels dropped, exposing the romantic geographical feature filled with turquoise water caused by the chemical compounds in the 500-year-old volcanic rock
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Binche, Belgium
Revellers at the Binche Carnival, one of the most ancient and UNESCO listed traditions.
Photograph: REX/Shutterstock

Doha Port, Qatar
Ginni van Katwijk, of the Netherlands, competes in the preliminary round of the women’s 20 metre high diving event during the 2024 World Aquatics Championships
Photograph: Sébastien Bozon/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 13^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38272.75	-524.63
		-1.35%
S&P 500	4953.17	-68.67
		-1.37%
NASDAQ	15655.60	-286.95
		-1.80%
TSX	20584.97	-482.33
		-2.29%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37963.97	+1066.55
		+2.89%
HANG SENG	15746.58	-131.49
		-0.83%
SENSEX	71555.19	+482.70
		+0.68%
FTSE 100*	7512.28	-61.41
		-0.81%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.651	3.581
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.471	3.442
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.3143	4.1793
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4628	4.3798

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7371	0.7432
US $	1.3567	1.3455

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4534	0.6880
US $	1.0713	0.9334

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2015.20	2023.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	77.87	76.84

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1990, junk-bond giant Drexel Burnham Lambert sought bankruptcy protection following years of legal troubles. Only days earlier, its Chief Executive Fred Joseph had told The Wall Street Journal, “I see daylight. The worst is behind us.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 2.3% at 20,584.97 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.7% on Sept. 23, 2022 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.3%.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as all sectors lost; 212 of 225 shares fell, while 13 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 12.5%.
SSR Mining Inc. had the largest drop, falling 53.5%.
Insights
* The index declined 0.6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.1% below its 52-week high on Jan. 31, 2024 and 10.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.8% in the past 5 days and fell 1.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.1 on a trailing basis and 15.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.34t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.63% compared with 8.00% in the previous session and the average of 9.70% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology| -142.4529| -7.0| 0/10
Financials | -122.7276| -1.9| 2/25
Materials | -71.1033| -3.4| 1/51
Energy | -54.5412| -1.5| 4/37
Industrials | -24.6360| -0.8| 3/23
Utilities | -18.7275| -2.3| 0/15
Consumer Discretionary| -18.6802| -2.4| 0/13
Communication Services| -13.4429| -1.7| 0/5
Real Estate | -10.3414| -2.0| 1/20
Consumer Staples | -5.0502| -0.6| 1/10
Health Care | -0.6279| -1.0| 1/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
| Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -126.7000| -12.5| 102.5| 1.6
RBC | -28.8300| -2.2| -63.7| -4.1
Brookfield Corp | -20.2900| -3.7| 49.6| -0.2
Couche-Tard | 0.3070| 0.1| 65.1| 3.3
TMX Group | 0.6400| 1.0| 51.8| 7.3
Waste Connections | 8.5030| 2.3| 138.3| 7.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street got a reality check on Tuesday, with hotter-than-estimated inflation data triggering a slide in both stocks and bonds.
Equities pushed away from their all-time highs as the consumer price index topped estimates across the board.
Treasuries sold off, with two-year yields hitting the highest since before the December central bank “pivot.”
Swap traders ratcheted down their expectations for a Fed cut before July.
The stock market’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — surged the most since October.
And a measure of perceived risk in the US investment-grade corporate bond market soared — with three issuers getting sidelined.
“It is too early to declare victory over inflation,” said Torsten Slok at Apollo Global Management. “Maybe the ‘last mile’ was indeed more difficult.”
The CPI data came as a disappointment for investors after a recent downdraft in price pressures that helped build expectations for rate cuts this year.
The numbers also gave credence to the wait-and-see approach highlighted by Jerome Powell and a chorus of Fed speakers.
The S&P 500 fell 1.4%, dropping below 5,000 in its worst CPI day since September 2022.
Rate-sensitive shares like homebuilders and banks sank, while Tesla Inc. led losses in mega-caps.
The Russell 2000 of small caps slumped about 4%.
US 10-year yields climbed 14 basis points to 4.31%.
The so-called real yield hit 2%.
The dollar rose, driving gold under $2,000.
“If Powell and other Fed members hadn’t already thrown cold water on the prospects for a March rate cut a few weeks ago, today’s CPI report might have done that,” said Jason Pride at Glenmede. “Evidence of still-sticky services inflation is likely to give the Fed pause before cutting rates too quickly.”
Pride says rate cuts are likely still on the table for this year, but they may begin later than the market may be anticipating.
Swap contracts referencing Fed policy meetings — which as recently as mid-January fully priced in a rate cut in May and 175 basis points of easing by the end of the year — were roiled.
The odds of a May cut dropped to about 32% from about 64% before the inflation data, with fewer than 90 basis points anticipated this year.
“While the door for a March cut had already been effectively shut given the recent Fed commentary and the jobs reports, the Fed has now locked the door and lost the key,” said Greg Wilensky at Janus Henderson Investors.
Much of the unanticipated increase in CPI was concentrated in what looks like a “noisy jump” in Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) — a shelter price indicator, according to Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.
While that will likely revert, the details were consistent with the Fed having a “last mile problem” — and not cutting rates until midyear or later, she added.
The January CPI report is a reminder that inflation is a difficult, not-well-understood problem that doesn’t move in a straight line, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance.
“Bonds are too expensive if inflation is still a problem and the stock market can’t keep rallying if rates are going to be higher-for-longer – especially if the assumption that the Fed is completely done raising rates is incorrect,” he added.
Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities expects more volatility for the rest of the week “as the bears have the upper hand and the bulls are grasping.”
To Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial, while the data wasn’t exactly what the Fed wanted to see, investors will have to wait until later this month for a more comprehensive look at consumer prices.
“Just as the Fed said it wouldn’t rush to cut rates even after several months of encouraging economic data, they’re not going to immediately reverse course just because of one hotter-than-expected CPI reading,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. “Until proven otherwise, the longer-term cooling inflation trend is still in place. The Fed had already made clear that rate cuts weren’t going to happen as soon as many people wanted them to. Today was simply a reminder of why they were inclined to wait.”
The disinflation process is not a straight line — and one hot print on its own after an extended string of more favorable releases does not represent a new trend, said Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments.
The surprise jump in the January consumer price index probably will be less pronounced in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and potentially less alarming to central bank officials as they weigh when to cut interest rates.
Based on the latest CPI figures, the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy — due from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Feb. 29 — probably rose 0.29% last month, Morgan Stanley economists said.
“The CPI data has disrupted the string of Goldilocks growth and inflation data that had helped to lift the S&P 500 over 5,000,” said Brian Rose at UBS Global Wealth Management. “But it doesn’t change our positive fundamental outlook for 2024 of solid growth, further disinflation, and the start of Fed rate cuts in Q2 that is supportive of risk assets.”

More Comments on CPI:
* Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital: “Getting to the Fed’s magical 2% inflation target may prove more difficult than expected and result in elevated interest rates for a longer period of time.”
* Rob Swanke at Commonwealth Financial Network: “This is certainly not the news that the Fed will be looking for in order to begin cutting rates. So we may be on hold for several more months.”
* Paul Toft at Key Private Bank: “We remain aligned with the Fed’s comments of being more cautious in when to start cutting rates, and we believe the first rate cut will not come until the June or July meeting.”
* Neil Birrell at Premier Miton Investors: “We are not at the stage of worrying about inflation reaccelerating, but we are not out of the woods yet either.”
* Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial: “The ‘last mile’ – as expected – is proving to be stickier and more stubborn inhibiting even the most dovish wing of the FOMC.”
* Bryce Doty at Sit Investment Associates: “From the Fed’s perspective, economic growth is strong enough that there isn’t a sense of urgency on cutting rates. In the meantime, bond investors will get to enjoy higher yields a
little while longer than many thought.”
* Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors: “There’s still a viable path to a soft landing, but the January inflation report is a reminder that getting there won’t be a walk in the park.”
* Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments: “Though the timing of a Fed rate cut is uncertain, most investors are betting that a cut is the next move. Investors can consider locking in higher policy rates before Treasuries
reflect lower rates in the coming months.”
* Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo at Goldman Sachs Asset Management: “A delayed Fed means a focus on cash rich companies that benefit from higher real wages and a strong consumer, rather than on cyclicals that have indebtedness in floating rate form.  For rates, we have kept dry powder for better entry points into the market as it reprices the central bank delay and valuations are more appealing with better risk/reward.”
Well ahead of the CPI report, Bank of America Corp. clients posted the largest outflows from US equities in five weeks in the period ended last Friday.
Clients were net sellers of US equities last week, withdrawing $1.9 billion from the asset class — the most in five weeks, BofA quantitative strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said.
Investors are going “all in” on US technology stocks as they turn the most optimistic about global growth in two years, according to a separate survey by BofA.
Allocation to tech is now at the highest since August 2020.
Exposure to US equities more broadly has also risen, while easing macro risks prompted investors to trim cash levels by 55 basis points from January.
Previous such declines in cash levels were followed by stock market gains of about 4% in the following three months, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.
US equity futures had a sharp turn to bullish flows in the middle of last week, ending it with $18 billion new longs in S&P 500 futures, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists.
Nasdaq 100 futures also had $7.4 billion new longs, and long positioning on the benchmark is very extended and completely one-sided, a team led by Chris Montagu wrote.

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. plans to build its 737 Max aircraft at a slower pace during the first half of this year as it tackles quality issues and supplier glitches under the close supervision of US aviation regulators, Chief Financial Officer Brian West said.
* Krispy Kreme Inc. said it’s expecting double-digit price increases in some of the ingredients for its doughnuts, highlighting the cost pressures facing US companies.
* Coca-Cola Co. gave a 2024 organic revenue outlook that beat expectations, with a diverse group of products expected to boost results.
* GlobalFoundries Inc., the largest US maker of made-to-order semiconductors, gave a lackluster revenue forecast for the current quarter, indicating that a glut in industrial and automotive components is still weighing on orders.
* AutoNation Inc., one of the biggest car dealership chains in the US, beat analysts’ fourth-quarter profit and sales expectations.
* Marriott International Inc. reported fourth-quarter earnings that topped estimates as the company benefited from demand growth outside the US.
* Biogen Inc. reported fourth-quarter revenue that missed analysts’ expectations as the company’s multiple sclerosis drugs continued to decline.
* Shopify Inc. reported sales and profit for the fourth quarter that narrowly beat analysts’ estimates, suggesting the Canadian e-commerce giant fended off competition from Asian shopping platforms like Temu, Shein and TikTok.
* Activist investor Carl Icahn disclosed a 9.91% stake in JetBlue Airways Corp., calling the stock undervalued, and said he’s had talks with management about the possibility of representation on the board.
* ASML Holding NV dropped in the first minutes of trading before quickly recovering, with traders blaming the unexpected slump on an erroneous trade.

Key Events this Week:
* Eurozone industrial production, GDP, Wednesday
* BOE Governor Andrew Bailey testifies to House of Lords economic affairs panel, Wednesday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Wednesday
* Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks, Wednesday
* Japan GDP, industrial production, Thursday
* US Empire manufacturing, initial jobless claims, industrial production, retail sales, business inventories, Thursday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Thursday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Thursday
* Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks, Thursday
* ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks, Thursday
* US housing starts, PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday
* Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks, Friday
* ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 0.6% to $1.0707
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2589
* The Japanese yen fell 1% to 150.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $49,400.8
* Ether fell 0.1% to $2,629.74
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 14 basis points to 4.31%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.39%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.15%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $77.78 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.4% to $1,992.54 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova, Felice Maranz, Jessica Menton, Elena Popina, Bre Bradham, Carly Wanna, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Matthew Boesler and Christopher DeReza.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
The worst sin toward our fellow creatures is not to hate them, but to be indifferent to them: that’s the essence of inhumanity. –George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Darwin Day.

February 12, 1979: Followers of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini seized power in Iran, nine days after the religious leader returned to his home country following 15 years of exile. Go to article >>

Charles Darwin, b. 1809
Abraham Lincoln, b. 1809.
R. Buckminster Fuller, b.1985.

Where to see April’s total solar eclipse
Skywatchers are in for a treat this spring. The total solar eclipse passing over much of North America is less than two months away.

This is the new route on the world’s most famous train
The iconic Venice Simplon-Orient-Express will be heading to Italy’s Ligurian coast for the first time in its long and prestigious history — but it’ll cost you $8,500 one way.

18 – That’s how many years it took researchers to compile Charles Darwin’s library of books, pamphlets and journals cited and read by the influential naturalist. In honor of the 215th anniversary of Darwin’s birthday today, the research team behind the Darwin Online project released a catalog of the contents for free online, inviting the public to peruse what Darwin read. The author of numerous works, he is perhaps best known for his 1859 book, “On the Origin of Species,” which introduced the fundamental scientific concept of evolution to the world.

‘We are approaching the tipping point’: Marker for the collapse of key Atlantic current discovered
A vital Atlantic current that includes the Gulf Stream and keeps our climate in check may be giving off a warning sign of collapse. Read More.

Undeciphered script from Easter Island may predate European colonization
A wooden tablet inscribed with the undeciphered rongorongo script from Rapa Nui (also known as Easter Island) dates to the 15th century, long before Europeans arrived. This early date suggests that the Rapa Nui people invented their own script without European influence. Read More.

Stunning ‘Einstein engagement ring’ from the early universe is one of the oldest ever discovered
The Hubble Space Telescope has snapped a stunning photo of one of the most distant Einstein rings ever found. The luminous halo of light aligns perfectly with another galaxy, making it look like a
cosmic engagement ring. Read More.

‘Universal memory’ breakthrough brings the next generation of computers 1 step closer to major speed boost
Universal memory promises to replace both RAM and flash storage in computers with a better, faster and more energy-efficient alternative. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Norfolk, England
Thousands wading birds flock over the Wash as the tide recedes in an event known as the Snettisham Spectacular
Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Moscow, Russia
People walk through a decorated street
Photograph: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

​​​​​​​Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Members of the Porto da Pedra samba school perform during the first night of the carnival parade
Photograph: Mauro Pimentel/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 12^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38797.38	+125.69
		+0.32%
S&P 500	5021.84	-4.77
		-0.09%
NASDAQ	15942.55	-48.11
		-0.30%
TSX	21067.30	+57.70
		+0.27%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	Market Close	N.A.
HANG SENG	Market Close	N.A.
SENSEX	71072.49	+167.06
		+0.23%
FTSE 100*	7573.69	+1.11
		+0.01%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.581	3.543
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.442	3.417
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1793	4.1754
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3798	4.3722

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7432	0.7430
US $	1.3455	1.3459

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4487	0.6903
US $	1.0768	0.9287

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2023.50	2028.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	76.84	76.84

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1970: The New York Stock Exchange elected its first African-American member, Joseph L. Searles III.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.3%, or 57.7 to 21,067.30 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Feb. 2.
Enbridge Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.0%.
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. had the largest increase, rising 8.2%.
Today, 161 of 225 shares rose, while 59 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 2.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on Jan. 31, 2024 and 12.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 0.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 on a trailing basis and 16 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.33t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.00% compared with 8.07% in the previous session and the average of 9.71% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 43.4859| 1.2| 34/6
Financials | 33.0725| 0.5| 19/8
Materials | 18.1044| 0.9| 42/7
Consumer Discretionary | 8.2744| 1.1| 12/1
Utilities | 6.4676| 0.8| 12/3
Communication Services | 3.3306| 0.4| 3/2
Real Estate | 2.0010| 0.4| 16/5
Health Care | 0.8148| 1.3| 3/1
Consumer Staples | -1.3799| -0.2| 5/5
Industrials | -21.1048| -0.7| 13/13
Information Technology | -35.3658| -1.7| 2/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Enbridge | 13.3800| 2.0| 66.2| -1.6
Fairfax Financial | 9.7320| 4.9| 43.7| 8.3
Bank of Montreal | 7.7120| 1.2| 0.6| -3.8
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -8.5350| -1.1| 60.5| 8.3
Constellation Software | -9.8100| -1.9| -13.5| 11.4
Shopify | -18.7100| -1.8| 57.8| 16.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street kicked off the week with small moves in stocks, bonds and the dollar ahead of inflation figures that will be key to determine the scope and timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Less than 24 hours before the consumer price index, the S&P 500 struggled to gain traction.
While the data is expected to underscore further disinflation, traders remained unwilling to commit to big bets.
That sense of caution also prevailed after five straight weeks of gains that drove equities above overbought levels, triggering some calls for at least consolidation.
“Keeping the age-old adage in mind that ‘trees don’t grow to the sky,’ we think it’s important to keep the party hats in the box for now,” said John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management. “We remain positive on stocks, view bonds as complimentary to stocks for prudent diversification and look for a further broadening of the equity rally which emerged from the lows of late October.”
The S&P 500 lost steam after approaching 5,050.
The Nasdaq 100 underperformed, led by losses in Microsoft Corp., Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc.
Chip designer Arm Holdings Plc soared 29%.
Treasury 10-year yields were little changed at 4.17%.
Bitcoin hovered near $50,000.
“Most people will be fixated on this week’s inflation numbers, but there’s also a potential tug-of-war between how extended the current market rally may be versus the buzz surrounding the S&P 500 topping 5,000,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. “While it’s true the S&P has often pushed higher after crossing ‘round-number’ thresholds like this one, it hasn’t always done it after the type of rally that has unfolded since late October.”
The S&P 500 is approaching a technical roadblock after eclipsing 5,000 for the first time — triggering a contrarian sell signal for stocks on Friday, according to Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson.
“The current state of the equity market can be summed up by the 1981 hit from 38 Special: “Hold on loosely, but don’t let go’,” Johnson wrote in a note to clients. “To be clear, we are not bearish on the stock market. However, as ‘bad breadth’ lingers, the market is ripe for a healthy correction, likely in the range of 5% to 10%.”
The gauge’s quick journey to 5,000 has already left the consensus Wall Street target for 2024 tracked by Bloomberg — 4,819.40 as of Friday — in the dust.
Because of the old adage that “large round numbers act like rusty doors and require several attempts before finally swinging open,” investors now wonder if it is time to take some profits ahead of a likely market drop from exhaustion after scaling such a prominent peak, according to Sam Stovall at CFRA.
If history is any guide, while short-term digestions of gains have indeed occurred, they have been fairly short in duration, he noted.
When looking at the S&P 500’s cumulative return in the 3-6, and 12-months after crossing above the 100, 500, 1,000, 2,000, 3,000, and 4,000 levels, the gauge posted average price gains of 4.7%, 9.8%, and 12.3%, and rose in price during 83% of all periodic observations, Stovall said.
“This run to 5,000 has been supported by the fundamentals, with a soft landing looking increasingly likely and earnings season nicely exceeding expectations after a messy start,” said Jeffrey Buchbinder at LPL Financial. “A market trading over 20 times earnings seems high, but it’s reasonable if the US economy avoids recession and earnings grow double-digits this year — which is not out of the question.”
The S&P 500 is currently trading around 20 times forward earnings — a level it has only hit in two other periods over the last 25 years: the dot-com bubble and the post-pandemic bull market, said Nicholas Colas at DataTrek Research.
“Valuations get to these levels when investors have high confidence in three factors: monetary/fiscal policy, the US/global banking system, and strong corporate earnings,” Colas added. “Even with 2022’s bear market, investors feel that the future is highly predictable. It will likely take an exogenous shock to change their minds.”
To Rob Swanke at Commonwealth Financial Network, some caution is warranted at the current valuation levels.
“I wouldn’t say we’re in bubble territory, but the market is pricing closer to perfection now and companies will have to continue to hit high earnings targets in 2024, something they didn’t have to do in 2023,” he added.
Last week’s news and data reinforced the four drivers of this bull market: Fed rate cuts by May, solid economic growth, continued disinflation and strong earnings, according to Tom Essaye at the Sevens Report.
“It’s important to acknowledge that this rally has been driven by actual good news and bullish expectations being reinforced by actual data,” Essaye said. “At the same time, the risks that kept investors worried in October (and even
throughout 2023) haven’t been vanquished — they simply haven’t shown up yet.”
The annual CPI is forecast to have dropped to 2.9% in January from 3.4% the prior month, according to consensus estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
That would be the first reading below 3% since March 2021.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed 51% of investors polled think the market reaction to CPI on Tuesday will be “risk-on” — and only 19% said “risk-off”.
US consumer expectations for inflation over the medium term fell to the lowest level since at least 2013, a Fed Bank New York survey showed Monday.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated the central bank’s benchmark lending rate is in a good place to keep downward pressure on inflation, and she doesn’t see a need to ease policy soon.
Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said while we’re closing in on the inflation target, we’re not there yet.
Traders started pricing in that the Fed will carry out just four — or five at the most — quarter-point rate cuts in 2024, only slightly more than the three penciled in by policymakers.
That’s a sharp shift from the end of last year, when futures traders were wagering on seven such moves.
“It’s important not to lose sight of the big picture, which is that continued disinflation should allow the central bank to start easing this year,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management. “This is a significant change in the investment landscape, so we think it’s less important whether the Fed cuts three, four, or five times this year.”
Even if the Fed doesn’t scale back interest rates, the S&P 500 can still extend its climb this year, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Savita Subramanian.
“Recall that our constructive view on stocks is not because of what the Fed will do, but what the Fed has already done,” she  added, referring to the central bank taming inflation without a recession.

Corporate Highlights:
* The Federal Reserve slapped Citigroup Inc. with a series of demands to change the way it measures the risk of its trading partners, according to a Reuters report, the latest blow to Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser’s turnaround effort.
* Diamondback Energy Inc. agreed to buy fellow Texas oil-and-gas producer Endeavor Energy Resources LP in a $26 billion cash-and-stock deal to create the largest operator focused on the prolific Permian Basin.
* Gilead Sciences Inc. agreed to purchase CymaBay Therapeutics Inc., a developer of an experimental liver disease drug, for $4.3 billion in equity value.
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. is seeking as much as $4 billion from Autonomy Corp.’s former bosses following a London judge’s finding that they fraudulently boosted the value of the company before its sale.

Key Events this Week:
* Germany ZEW survey expectations, Tuesday
* US CPI, Tuesday
* Eurozone industrial production, GDP, Wednesday
* BOE Governor Andrew Bailey testifies to House of Lords economic affairs panel, Wednesday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Wednesday
* Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks, Wednesday
* Japan GDP, industrial production, Thursday
* US Empire manufacturing, initial jobless claims, industrial production, retail sales, business inventories, Thursday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Thursday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Thursday
* Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks, Thursday
* ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks, Thursday
* US housing starts, PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday
* Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks, Friday
* ECB executive board member Isabel Schnabel speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0774
* The British pound was unchanged at $1.2628
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 149.34 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.2% to $50,156.96
* Ether rose 5.6% to $2,643.7
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.17%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.36%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.06%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $77.03 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,020.19 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova, Michael Mackenzie, Liz Capo McCormick, Ye Xie and Denitsa Tsekova.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Last, but by no means least, courage – moral courage, the courage of one’s convictions, the courage to see things through.  The world is in a constant conspiracy against the brave.  It’s the age-old struggle – the roar of the crowd on one side and the voice of your conscience on the other. –General Douglas MacArthur, 1880-1964.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.  Happy New Year – it is the Year of the Dragon.
Happy Super Bowl weekend!!!

On this day: 1943: The World War II battle of Guadalcanal in the southwest Pacific ended with an American victory over Japanese forces.  Go to article >> 1969: The Boeing 747 flies for the first time.  The “Jumbo Jet’ was the world’s largest passenger aircraft at the time.

Gypsy Rose Lee, burlesque queen, b. 1914
Carole King, songwriter, b. 1942.
Alice Walker, b. 1944.

Everything you need to know about Super Bowl LVII:  Excitement is building around the big game on Sunday! Follow CNN’s Super Bowl coverage for the latest on the competing teams, halftime show,
and of course… Taylor Swift.

Lamar Jackson is named NFL’s Most Valuable Player
The Baltimore Ravens quarterback was named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player on Thursday night, becoming the 11th player in league history to have won the award more than once.

British Vogue features 40 ‘legendary’ cover stars for editor Edward Enninful’s final issue
Naomi Campbell, Miley Cyrus, Jane Fonda, Dua Lipa, Kate Moss and Serena Williams are just some of the names the outgoing editor brought in for his last cover shoot.

Romans kept poisonous, narcotic seeds concealed in bone vials, new discovery reveals
A hollowed-out animal bone was used by Romans to store a stash of poisonous seeds and is the first-ever evidence of the seeds’ use during the Roman era. Read More.

‘We were very surprised’: Magma under Reykjanes Peninsula rushed into Grindavík dike at a shockingly fast rate
Magma flowed into the dike beneath Grindavík at a rate almost 100 times higher than what was seen in the eruptions that took place between 2021 and 2023. Read More.

Massive hydrogen reservoir discovered beneath an Albanian mine could be an untapped source of clean energy .
A portion of ancient oceanic crust that sits atop Albania and hosts one of the largest chromium mines on Earth also contains a huge hydrogen reservoir, offering a potential source of clean energy.  Full Story: Live Science (2/8)
PHOTOS OF  THE DAY

Antarctica
A whale breaches as a Turkish scientific team continue their voyage during the 8th National Antarctic Science Expedition.
Photograph: Sebnem Coskun/Anadolu/Getty Images

Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain
Corina Mrazek Gonzalez is proclaimed carnival queen.
Photograph: Ramon de la Rocha/EPA

Aba, China
Giant pandas enjoy refreshments at the Shenshuping conservation and research centre.
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 9^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38671.69	-54.64
		-0.14%
S&P 500	5026.61	+28.70
		+0.57%
NASDAQ	15990.66	+196.95
		+1.25%
TSX	21009.60	+89.96
		+0.43%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36897.42	+34.14
		+0.09%
HANG SENG	15746.58	-131.49
		-0.83%
SENSEX	71595.49	+167.06
		+0.23%
FTSE 100*	7572.58	-22.90
		-0.30%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.543	3.552
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.417	3.433
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1754	4.1463
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3722	4.3437

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7430	0.7429
US $	1.3459	1.3461

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4514	0.6890
US $	1.0783	0.9274

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2028.65	2041.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	76.84	76.22

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1966, the Vietnam War-era bull market hit its peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 995.15, a high it wouldn’t surpass for another 17 years.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 21,009.60 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.5% on Feb. 1 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.3%.
Bombardier Inc. had the largest increase, rising 8.5%.
Today, 132 of 225 shares rose, while 89 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 0.4%
* The index advanced 2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.1% below its 52-week high on Jan. 31, 2024 and 12.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 on a trailing basis and 16 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.32t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.07% compared with 7.97% in the previous session and the average of 9.92% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 47.8886| 0.7| 22/5
Information Technology | 44.2288| 2.2| 7/3
Industrials | 12.8939| 0.4| 15/11
Utilities | 4.0810| 0.5| 13/2
Consumer Staples | 4.0592| 0.5| 6/4
Communication Services | 2.9167| 0.4| 3/2
Real Estate | 2.4092| 0.5| 16/5
Health Care | 0.3273| 0.5| 3/0
Energy | -5.2580| -0.1| 17/22
Consumer Discretionary | -10.0368| -1.3| 7/6
Materials | -13.5332| -0.6| 23/29
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 32.6900| 3.3| -7.3| 18.4
Bank of Nova Scotia| 13.0600| 2.5| -24.5| -1.9
RBC | 7.9420| 0.6| -78.5| -2.2
BCE | -3.5720| -1.1| 63.0| -3.2
Teck Resources | -3.9970| -2.4| 57.3| -11.1
Magna Intl | -9.9060| -6.7| 81.9| -6.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street notched a milestone, with the S&P 500 topping 5,000 amid a renewed rally in big tech and hopes the Federal Reserve will soon be able to cut rates — bolstering the outlook for corporate profits.
Emboldened by bets on a soft landing and the power of artificial-intelligence — equities closed at another all-time high, defying doomsayers and warnings about an overstretched market.
“The S&P 500 is the best single barometer of confidence in Corporate America’s earnings power and the strength of the economy,” said George Ball, chairman of Sanders Morris. “The direction of the S&P 500 reflects whether the economy and earnings are improving or deteriorating.”
A few days ahead of the key consumer price index, investors breathed a sigh of relief as a government report — which is usually ignored by markets — confirmed inflation progress at end of 2023.
In the immediate aftermath of the data, Treasuries rose — but quickly reversed that move.
The two-year yield went back to levels seen since before the Fed’s December “pivot.”
Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he’s “laser focused” on returning inflation to target, and his Dallas counterpart Lorie Logan said she sees no urgency to cut rates.
To David Donabedian at CIBC Private Wealth US, the current economic backdrop supports Wall Street’s bullish momentum.
“The market has pivoted from believing the Fed would be its savior to deciding it doesn’t need a savior with the economy supporting it,” Donabedian noted.
With the S&P 500’s new 5,000-point milestone, the question is: what’s next for the index?
Performance for the gauge has been positive after reaching major milestones, according to Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.
Of the last nine, the index posted a 12-month average return of 10.4% — with 78% of occurrences producing positive results, he noted.
“A close above this closely watched level will undoubtedly create headlines and further feed fear of missing out emotions,” Turnquist noted. “Outside of a potential sentiment boost, round numbers such as 5,000 often provide a psychological area of support or resistance for the market.”
For now, that’s “just a big round number,” according to Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
“Of course, if the market rolls over in any meaningful way from this level, that will change things,” he noted. “A failure at that level would make it a new key resistance level. Either way, the stock market has seen a fabulous rally this year. So unless any decline becomes a substantial one, it won’t mean a whole lot for the big picture.”
“While some will say it is just another number in the vast sea of numbers that we digest every day, this one is a bit different,” said Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth. “5,000 represents a new millennium, and so it does create additional excitement. So I would expect the excitement to continue for a bit more.”
Another reason sustaining the stock market’s strength to start the year is certainly the outlook for corporate profits.
With earnings season around two-thirds done, companies are solidly beating expectations.
Some 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting results this earnings cycle have surprised to the upside, handily exceeding the 10-year average of 74%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data through Friday morning.
Analysts are responding by lifting projections.
Wall Street now sees fourth-quarter earnings growing 6.5% from a year earlier for S&P 500 members on average — which would be the best since mid-2022 — and up from a meager projection of 1.2% in early January, according to BI.
“The fourth-quarter earnings season has been stronger than expected, giving investors confidence that the healthy economy could continue driving corporate profits,” said Arthur Hogan at B. Riley Wealth.
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, the strong momentum has brought skeptical institutional and retail investors back into the market — which has a compounding effect on the rally — though it is increasingly driving questions of sustainability.
Indeed, despite all the optimism, warnings about a stretched market keep piling — with the S&P 500 trading above “overbought” technical levels.
“We remain cautious,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott. “On this front, we note narrowing of breadth, ongoing divergences in momentum, overbought conditions in leadership areas, and sentiment that can approach extremes relatively quickly.”
With US equities now trading at 21 times forward earnings amid lofty interest rates and little demand for cheap hedges against the backdrop of low volatility levels, bulls and bears are wrestling over the sustainability of this rally, according to Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
“Are we entering a new era of loftier valuations due to rising productivity, increased retail participation, and money shifting from the East to the West?” Torres said. “Or is this a ‘bubblicious mania’ that will end in tears as wild speculation takes over markets? In the end, only time will tell, but my intuition keeps me in the bearish camp.”
Michael Hartnett at Bank of America Corp. says that a speedy rally that sent US stocks on a record-setting spree is now close to triggering several sell signals.
The bank’s custom bull-and-bear indicator rose to 6.8 in the week through Feb. 7, Hartnett wrote in a note.
A reading above 8 would suggest the bullish trend has run too far, flashing a contrarian signal to sell, the strategist said.
“Bear positioning in 2023 was markets’ best friend,” Hartnett said. But after investors bought the S&P 500 during last year’s 24% rally, that exposure is “flipping from tailwind to headwind.” He cautioned that “in bubbles, markets show little respect for positioning,” or for valuation. “They solely respect policy and real interest rates,” he said.
The equity market strength despite changing Fed expectations and higher interest rates is notable given the sharp reactions to the Fed in recent years, said Nationwide’s Hackett.
“A less emotional market is a positive sign, though investors must fight against the complacency that is a natural reaction to such a strong and steady bull run,” he added.
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, while stocks may be a bit overheated at the moment, it doesn’t mean the markets are about to go off the rails.
“While it may eventually lead to some profit taking in the short term, this is still a bull market. Until we see material weakness in the economy, it’s hard to get bearish on stocks,” Kenwell noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* Cryptocurrency shares climbed as Bitcoin advanced beyond $47,000.
* New York Community Bancorp’s chief executive officer and other insiders bought more than 200,000 shares of the stock, which has lost about half its value since last week’s shock announcement of a dividend cut and larger loan-loss provisions.
* Cisco Systems Inc. is cutting thousands of jobs as the largest maker of computer networking equipment restructures its business to focus on high-growth areas, Reuters reported.
* Expedia Group Inc. named Ariane Gorin as chief executive officer of the online travel company, succeeding Peter Kern, who has been in the role since 2020.
** Separately, Expedia reported gross bookings of $21.7 billion in the fourth quarter, missing analysts’ average estimate of $22 billion.
* PepsiCo Inc. gave a full-year sales forecast that fell short of analysts’ estimates and reported a drop in volumes in the North America beverage and Quaker foods units.
* Exxon Mobil Corp.’s exploratory drilling off the coast of Guyana will be “well south” of the disputed territory that Venezuela claims as its own, according to a senior company executive.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0787
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2630
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 149.29 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 5% to $47,581.03
* Ether rose 2.8% to $2,492.76
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.18%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.38%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.09%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $76.55 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,025.38 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Denitsa Tsekova, Alexandra Semenova, Julien Ponthus, Carmen Reinicke and Carly Wanna.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The truth is in nature, and I shall prove it. -Paul Cezanne, 1839-1906.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  Nirvana Day, Buddhism.
February 8,1971:  NASDAQ, the world’s first electronic stock exchange, held its first trading day. Go to article >>

1910: Boy Scouts of America established.
John Ruskin, b. 1819.
Jules Verne, b. 1828.
James Dean, b.1931.

Iceland volcano erupts for 3rd time, triggering lava fountains over 200 feet tall
The underground volcano near Grindavík has begun its third major eruption in three months, opening up a 2-mile-long fissure that is pumping out large amounts of lava and ash. Read More.

‘It haunts all our imaginations’: Were Neanderthals really like us? In this adapted extract from The Naked Neanderthal: A New Understanding of the Human Creature, Ludovic Slimak examines how we should view our ancient relatives, the Neanderthals.  Full Story: Live Science (2/7)

Our universe is merging with ‘baby universes’, causing it to expand, new theoretical study suggests
The universe is expanding faster and faster, but not all scientists agree that dark energy is the cause. Perhaps, instead, our universe keeps colliding with and absorbing smaller “baby universes,” a new theoretical study suggests.
Read More.

Polar bear sleeping on tiny iceberg drifting in Arctic sea captured in heartbreaking photo
An image captured off the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard shows a young polar bear drifting to sleep on a small iceberg after carving a bed in the ice. Read More.

325 million-year-old shark graveyard discovered deep within Mammoth Cave harbors new fossilized species
Two new ancient shark species have been uncovered in Mammoth Cave with teeth that “look like they just came out of the shark’s mouth yesterday.”
Full Story: Live Science (2/7)

This image won the top wildlife photography prize
See the “breathtaking” photo selected from over 50,000 other entries as the winner of the 2024 Wildlife Photographer of the Year People’s Choice Award.

This country is now the top exporter of goods into the US
Hint: It’s not China.

Researchers reveal first full passages decoded from ancient scroll
With the help of artificial intelligence, 15 passages have been deciphered from this 2,000-year-old unrolled Herculaneum scroll, providing a glimpse into the thoughts of an ancient philosopher. See what researchers learned.

Moths actually aren’t drawn to light as previously thought
A new study found that moths’ behavior around light isn’t about attraction.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Mexico City, Mexico
A visitor views an artwork at Zona Maco, the largest contemporary art fair in the country, at the Banamex Centre
Photograph: Rodrigo Oropeza/AFP/Getty Images

Riga, Latvia
A pedestrian braves the weather on Aleksandra Čaka Street during heavy snowfall
Photograph: Toms Kalniņš/EPA

​​​​​​​Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Lava flows from Mount Merapi during foggy weather
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 8^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38726.33	+48.97
		+0.13%
S&P 500	4997.91	+2.85
		+0.06%
NASDAQ	15793.71	+37.07
		+0.24%
TSX	20919.64	-49.54
		-0.24%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37160.93	+297.65
		+0.81%
HANG SENG	15878.07	-203.82
		-1.27%
SENSEX	71428.43	-723.57
		-1.00%
FTSE 100*	7595.48	-33.27
		-0.44%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.552	3.479
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.433	3.380
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1463	4.1211
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3437	4.3246

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7429	0.7428
US $	1.3461	1.3463

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4505	0.6894
US $	1.0775	0.9281

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2041.60	2030.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	76.22	73.31

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1971, after nearly a decade of preparation, the Nasdaq market opened for trading. The Nasdaq Composite Index was set at an initial value of 100. It closed Wednesday at 15756.64.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 20,919.64 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 127 of 225 shares fell, while 95 rose.
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 11.9%.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. had the largest drop, falling 24.4%.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 0.8%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Nov. 10
* The index advanced 1.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.6% below its 52-week high on Jan. 31, 2024 and 11.9% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.9% in the past 5 days and fell 0.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.32t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.97% compared with 8.04% in the previous session and the average of 10.03% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -38.2603| -0.6| 6/20
Communication Services | -20.7539| -2.6| 0/5
Materials | -18.4686| -0.9| 13/39
Utilities | -10.8628| -1.3| 2/13
Industrials | -7.4477| -0.2| 10/16
Health Care | -0.4643| -0.7| 0/4
Consumer Staples | 1.0008| 0.1| 2/9
Energy | 1.6551| 0.0| 33/8
Real Estate | 4.9592| 1.0| 10/9
Consumer Discretionary | 5.9774| 0.8| 11/2
Information Technology | 33.1223| 1.7| 8/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Fairfax Financial | -26.1000| -11.9| 157.5| 1.2
Cameco | -13.4700| -6.9| 67.9| 5.4
BCE | -12.7000| -3.8| 232.2| -2.1
Thomson Reuters | 9.0710| 4.3| 99.8| 8.2
Brookfield Corp | 10.5000| 2.0| -3.1| 2.6
Shopify | 29.8300| 3.1| 8.7| 14.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street struggled to gain traction on Thursday, with the bond market digesting another big sale of Treasuries and stocks hovering near records.
Bonds fell despite a strong $25 billion auction that reduced jitters about an oversupply.
Equities closed little changed after the S&P 500 briefly hit 5,000 for the first time.
A sense of caution prevailed as investors positioned for Friday’s consumer-price index revisions thinking about what happened a year ago: The update was significant enough to cast doubt on overall inflation progress.
“There is some talk that tomorrow’s CPI revisions could throw cold water on the recent good inflation numbers — but this is a wonky number,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “We think the next move comes off the CPI number next Tuesday.”
Ahead of those figures, investors got a jobless claims reading that added to evidence of a still strong labor market and gave credence to the recent cautious rhetoric from central bank speakers.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin was the latest to reiterate policymakers have time to be patient about the timing of rate cuts.
The S&P 500 closed at 4,997.97. As the earnings season rolled in, Walt Disney Co. and Arm Holdings Plc jumped on upbeat outlooks, while PayPal Holdings Inc. sank on an underwhelming forecast.
Treasury 10-year yields rose three basis points to 4.15%.
Bitcoin topped $45,000.
Oil rallied amid doubts over a potential cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war.
To Larry Tentarelli at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, a solid jobs market and a resilient consumer continue to bode well for the economy and should push back on immediate recession concerns.
Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley says the next few inflation reports may determine whether stocks will be able to keep setting new records in the near term.
“We remain cautious,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott. “On this front, we note narrowing of breadth, ongoing divergences in momentum, overbought conditions in leadership areas, and sentiment that can approach extremes relatively quickly.”
From its March 2020 pandemic-low, the S&P 500 has more than doubled, with gains in the past year fueled by bets on a soft economic landing and optimism about the impact of artificial intelligence over corporate earnings.
While US stocks are now pricing in plenty of good news, UBS’s Chief Investment Office sees the potential for further gains in the event of a “Goldilocks” economic outcome.
“Our base case remains for a soft landing for the US economy, with the S&P 500 ending the year around current levels,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“However, recent economic data have highlighted the potential for a period of continued stronger growth, tame inflation, and swifter monetary easing. In this event, we believe the S&P 500 has the potential to rise to around 5,300 this year.”
Stronger-than-expected earnings are leading companies to announce share buybacks at a blistering pace as 2024 gets going — a potentially crucial pillar of support for stocks already trading at all-time highs.
US companies have announced $105 billion in planned share repurchases in the first seven days of February, surpassing the full-month tally in January.
It’s the strongest start to a February ever for announced buybacks and the second-best start to a year after 2023, according to data compiled by Birinyi Associates Inc.
Meantime, a survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 56% of the investors polled think economic growth will be stronger than consensus estimates in 2024.
That’s up from 35% two weeks ago.
Recession odds are down to 7%.
The tally also showed that tech is the “most-popular long” for the rest of 2024.
An index of sentiment among chief executive officers of US companies has turned positive for the first time in two years, according to the Conference Board.
Stocks have tended to rally after the first Fed rate cut, but the phase of the economic cycle matters, according to Ed Clissold at Ned Davis Research.
The strongest performance has come during soft landings, while the weakest has come when the economy entered recession less than a year after the first cut.
“Growth has outperformed value after first cuts — especially during slow cycles,” Clissold wrote in a note entitled: “Dear Jay: move slowly. Sincerely, the bulls.”
Big tech — the group that’s powered the equity resurgence — is bringing in more cash than ever before, priming the group to return money to shareholders and potentially adding fuel to a rally that’s already sent most of the group into record territory.
The five biggest technology companies that have reported earnings so far — Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. — generated a record $139.5 billion of combined cash from operations in the quarter that ended on Dec. 31, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
At these levels, the equity market appears overbought — but the fact is that many traders don’t want to miss out on continued gains.
That has prompted outsized interest in options contracts that provide upside exposure for minimal premium.
The premium in implied volatility of 3-month 10-delta calls to 40-delta calls hovers around its highest in a decade, as pointed out by Susquehanna International Group.
That relationship signals added demand for call options implying higher gains relative to those seeking more modest advances.
Increasingly, traders are turning to the cheap contracts to position for broad market advances without having to purchase pricey benchmarks.

Corporate Highlights:
* Walt Disney Co. reported better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal first quarter and issued an upbeat profit outlook for the year, giving Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger ammunition to deflect proxy challenges at its shareholder meeting this spring.
* Chip designer Arm Holdings Plc issued a surprisingly bullish earnings forecast, showing its push beyond smartphones is helping fuel growth.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. said it expects earnings to be flat this year as it continues to cut costs and streamline its operations.
* Harley-Davidson Inc. eked out a fourth-quarter profit that beat estimates as sales fell as the rugged American brand boost incentives to offset high-borrowing costs on slow-selling motorcycles.
* Under Armour Inc. raised its outlook for full-year earnings, with cost cuts in its turnaround effort making up for a continued decline in revenue.
* Philip Morris International Inc. forecast high single digit profit growth in 2024 as shipments of its Zyn nicotine pouches surge in the US, offsetting lower cigarette sales.
* Spirit Airlines Inc., fighting to preserve its acquisition by JetBlue Airways Corp., said revenue will increase this quarter more than analysts were expecting and that it has the liquidity needed to stand on its own even as concerns mount about its financial future.

Key events this week:
* US CPI revisions, Friday
* Germany CPI, Friday
* President Joe Biden hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0777
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2619
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 149.27 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.8% to $45,435.07
* Ether fell 0.3% to $2,423.82
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.15%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.35%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.05%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.5% to $76.45 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Carly Wanna, Alexandra Semenova, Allegra Catelli, Jessica Menton, Elena Popina, Michael Msika and Subrat Patnaik.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing. – Stephen Covey, 1932-2012.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
February 7^th,1992: European Community members signed the Maastricht Treaty, which led to creation of the euro.  Go to article >>.

Charles Dickens, b.1812.

Coca-Cola is making a new flavor permanent
Coca-Cola’s wacky offerings frequently come and go, but its latest flavor is the company’s first permanent addition in three years.

ESPN, Fox and Warner Bros. Discovery are teaming up to launch a sports super-streamer
Three of the biggest sports broadcasters are uniting to create a super-platform that will house all of their sports assets under one streaming roof. (Warner Bros. Discovery is the parent company of CNN)

Bronze Age ‘treasure’ was crafted with extraterrestrial metal
Researchers determined that two artifacts in the Bronze Age hoard were made with meteoric iron. Read More.

Iceland volcano: Mass of magma pooling beneath power plant north of Grindavík indicates imminent eruption
Magma continues to accumulate in a chamber beneath Svartsengi and has now reached levels thought to have triggered the volcanic eruption that sent lava flowing into Grindavík on Jan. 14. Read More.

James Webb telescope makes ultra-rare detection of 2 planets orbiting dead stars
The James Webb Space Telescope has detected two alien planets orbiting white dwarfs, the collapsed husks of once-mighty stars. The discovery offers a hint of what our solar system will look like after the sun’s eventual demise.
Read More.

‘Remarkable’ new algorithm could dramatically speed up web browsing
SIEVE is a new approach to web caching that’s simpler and more effective than today’s state-of-the-art algorithms, its creators claim.

On Tuesday, a federal appeals court rejected former President Donald Trump’s claims that executive immunity protected him from criminal charges related to subverting the 2020 election.
From the Late Night Hosts:

“Trump’s campaign said that he respectfully disagrees with the ruling. Although, if Trump knew to respectfully disagree with a loss, he wouldn’t be on trial in the first place.” — JIMMY FALLON.

“The Supreme Court hasn’t announced if they’ll hear the case, but Clarence Thomas announced that he’d like an Apple Vision Pro and Super Bowl tickets if they do.” — JIMMY FALLON.

“According to a new poll from CNN, a majority of Americans want to see a verdict in the Jan. 6 case before they vote in the election. It’s vitally important that we find out whether the former president did what we all saw him do on television or not.” — JIMMY KIMMEL.

“OK, so he doesn’t have immunity, but after all these trials, he must have built up some antibodies.” — SETH MEYERS.

“The three-judge panel shot down his arguments in a strongly worded 57-page ruling. It was a devastating moment for Trump, especially when Melania started clapping.” — JIMMY KIMMEL.

“I mean, kind of a bummer because poor guy drank all that bleach for nothing,” Jimmy Kimmel said.

“And now Trump plans on going to the Supreme Court. And if he loses there, he plans on going to Brazil.” — JIMMY FALLON

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A Sky Full of Stars by Lorcan Taylor-Hood, runner-up in the Nature at night category
Photograph: Lorcan Taylor-Hood/SDNPA/PA

Golden Moonrise by Giles Embleton-Smith was highly commended
Photograph: Giles Embleton-Smith/SDNPA/PA

​​​​​​​Doha, Qatar
Britain’s Kate Shortman and Isabelle Thorpe compete in the preliminary round of the women’s duet free Group B artistic swimming event during the 2024 World Aquatics Championships at the Aspire Dome
Photograph: Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 7^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38677.36	+156.00
		+0.41%
S&P 500	4995.06	+40.83
		+0.82%
NASDAQ	15756.64	+147.64
		+0.95%
TSX	20969.18	+11.44
		+0.05%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36119.92	-40.74
		-0.11%
HANG SENG	16081.89	-54.98
		-0.34%
SENSEX	72152.00	-34.09
		-0.05%
FTSE 100*	7628.75	-52.26
		-0.68%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.479	3.428
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.380	3.328
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1211	4.0962
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3246	4.2979

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7428	0.7412
US $	1.3463	1.3492

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4506	0.6894
US $	1.0775	0.9281

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2030.80	2018.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	73.31	72.78

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1958, the Advanced Research Projects Agency of the U.S. Department of Defense, better known as Darpa, was established. It created Arpanet, the prototype of the World Wide Web.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 20,969.18 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.3%.
Birchcliff Energy Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 9.7%.
Today, 101 of 225 shares rose, while 116 fell; 3 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 1.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.3% below its 52-week high on Jan. 31, 2024 and 12.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.3% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 on a trailing basis and 15.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.32t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.04% compared with 8.27% in the previous session and the average of 10.12% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 42.3752| 2.2| 5/4
Industrials | 13.9339| 0.5| 16/9
Real Estate | 1.4890| 0.3| 9/10
Consumer Staples | -0.1644| 0.0| 5/5
Consumer Discretionary | -0.2227| 0.0| 6/7
Health Care | -0.4270| -0.7| 1/3
Communication Services | -3.1393| -0.4| 2/3
Utilities | -7.8816| -1.0| 3/11
Energy | -8.6834| -0.2| 24/16
Financials | -9.8311| -0.2| 17/10
Materials | -16.0224| -0.7| 13/38
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 39.7700| 4.3| 11.7| 11.2
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 8.1450| 1.1| -7.4| 9.6
Manulife Financial | 5.0700| 1.3| 17.7| 3.9
Enbridge | -5.7970| -0.8| 34.7| -2.8
Canadian Natural Resources | -7.4250| -1.2| -15.6| -6.4
TD Bank | -11.3700| -1.1| -26.9| -6.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The historic rally in US stocks continued to power ahead, with the S&P 500 closing within a striking distance of its 5,000 milestone.
Gains on Wednesday were fueled by a renewed surge in tech mega-caps and a strong sale of 10-year Treasuries that dimmed supply concerns.
While bonds barely budged, equities extended a torrid surge from their October 2022 lows on prospects that a solid economy will continue fueling corporate profits.
Traders shrugged off concerns about lofty valuations, February’s weak seasonality and cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials — with stocks hitting fresh records.
“The market continues to climb the wall of worry, including shifting Fed expectations, geopolitical tension, and overbought market conditions,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “We are entering a sluggish seasonal period, but the market has strong momentum.”
That positive tone in equities continued to prevail after the US government sold a record $42 billion of 10-year Treasuries at a lower-than-anticipated yield — a sign of confidence the Fed will pivot to rate cuts this year.
“The 10-year note auction was pretty good,” said Peter Boockvar, author of the Boock Report.
Also on Wall Street’s radar was a raft of central bank speakers — all showing no rush to cut rates as already signaled by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Governor Adriana Kugler presented an optimistic case for a continued slowdown inflation while indicating little urgency to reduce borrowing costs.
Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she’s looking for more evidence that inflation is durably set to align with the target before moving to cut rates — though that step is likely “later this year.”
Her Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari told CNBC that said officials need to see “a few more months” of inflation data before easing policy.
“Our base case is still for a soft landing where growth slows throughout the year, but remains healthy overall, while inflation does not prove to be overly sticky,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management. “And we do believe  this environment will allow the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates by May, and by 100 basis points through year-end.”
Following the steps of all major US equity benchmarks, the MSCI World Index of developed-market shares also rose to a record.
Resilient economic growth in the US and an expected rebound in Europe are likely to support equities — even as some parts of the stock market look “frothy,” according to Barclays strategists led by Emmanuel Cau.
While one of the world’s largest exchange-traded funds sits at a crucial inflection point following a torrid 22% rally since late October, further gains may be in store in the coming weeks.
The $244 billion Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ), which that tracks the Nasdaq 100, is trading near key resistance levels from three years ago relative to the broader SPDR S&P 500 ETF, better known by its ticker SPY.
If resistance from February 2021 is decisively pierced, the QQQ/SPY ratio is poised to rally more from here, with bullish confirmation for QQQ on absolute basis climbing to a new high, according to Anthony Feld at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Corporate Highlights:
* Ford Motor Co., buffeted by electric vehicle losses and rising labor costs, posted fourth quarter results that soundly beat expectations and forecast higher profits in 2024.
* Roblox Corp., a gaming company, reported higher-than-ever revenue and player counts.
* Snap Inc., the parent company of the Snapchat app, reported lower-than-projected revenue over the peak holiday season, disappointing investors just a week after much-larger rival Meta Platforms Inc. posted its best sales growth in two years.
* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. green-lit another $25 billion in stock repurchases, aiming to assuage investors worried about plateauing growth at a Chinese e-commerce and cloud pioneer struggling to fend off new rivals such as PDD Holdings Inc.
* Uber Technologies Inc. reported gross bookings that beat analyst estimates, showing strong global demand for rides and food delivery during the holiday period.
* Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.’s fourth-quarter sales and profit beat expectations as both transactions and check sizes rose, defying fears of waning consumer sentiment.
* 23andMe Holding Co. Chief Executive Officer Anne Wojcicki is considering splitting the DNA testing company’s consumer and therapeutics businesses in an effort to revive a sagging stock price and avoid being delisted

Key events this week:
* China PPI, CPI, Thursday
* US wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks at a Senate banking committee hearing on the Financial Stability Oversight Council annual report, Thursday
* Pharma CEOs speak at a Senate panel on prescription drug prices, Thursday
* ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speaks, Thursday
* ECB publishes economic bulletin, Thursday
* US CPI revisions, Friday
* Germany CPI, Friday
* President Joe Biden hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0773
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2625
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 148.18 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $44,161.79
* Ether rose 2.4% to $2,437.57
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.12%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.32%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 3.99%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $74.13 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jessica Menton.
Have  a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
I think track records are very important.  If you start early trying to have a perfect one
in some simple thing like honesty, you’re well on your way to success in this world. –Charles Munger, 1924-2023.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
February 5, 1935: Monopoly board game is patented, quickly becoming a family favourite.
February 5, 1945:  Reggae musician Bob Marley was born in St. Ann parish in Jamaica. Go to article >>

Babe Ruth, b. 1895.
Bob Marley, b. 1945.

Super Bowl ticket prices have dropped
… but they still cost a fortune. Tickets to this year’s game remain the most expensive on record, with the average purchase price currently at $9,850.

Should there be a Category 6 for hurricanes?
The idea of adding a Category 6 to the Saffir-Simpson scale has been discussed for years. Read why scientists are advocating for the change.

Event Horizon Telescope spies gargantuan energy jets erupting from nearby supermassive black hole.
Astronomers investigated an active supermassive black hole at the heart of Perseus A using the Event Horizon Telescope, spotting an epic battle between gravity and magnetism.  Full Story: Live Science (2/5)

April 8 total solar eclipse: The best places to stargaze near the path of totality
The April 8 total solar eclipse will be visible from many large cities, but anyone looking for skies free of light pollution should check out one of these dark-sky parks and reserves in the path of totality. Read More.

Bedbugs plagued Britain 1,900 years ago, Roman fort near Hadrian’s Wall reveals
The earliest known evidence of bedbugs in Britain was found at a first-century fort near Hadrian’s Wall. Read More.

RIP: Country singer Toby Keith died Monday after a battle with stomach cancer. He was 62. “He fought his fight with grace and courage,” a statement posted to Keith’s website said. Keith is known for hits including “Red Solo Cup” and “I Wanna Talk About Me.” His 2002 song “Courtesy of the Red, White and Blue (The Angry American),” released in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, made him a household name.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Srinagar, Kashmir
A fisher casts his net into the Jhelum River. The Kashmir valley received fresh snowfall after prolonged dry weather
Photograph: Saqib Majeed/Sopa Images/Rex/Shutterstock

London, England
Western lowland gorilla Mjukuu holds her newly born baby at London Zoo. The critically endangered western lowland gorilla was born this week after a speedy 17-minute labour. Western lowland gorillas, which inhabit dense and largely remote rainforests in west and central Africa, are classified as critically endangered, with a high risk of becoming extinct.
Photograph: Jonathan Kemeys/ZSL/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Pedestrians cross the road at Shibuya Crossing.
Photograph: Takashi Aoyama/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 6^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38521.36	+141.24
		+0.37%
S&P 500	4954.23	+11.42
		+0.23%
NASDAQ	15609.00	+11.32
		+0.07%
TSX	20957.74	+85.85
		+0.41%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36160.66	-193.50
		-0.53%
HANG SENG	16136.87	+626.86
		+4.04%
SENSEX	72186.09	+454.67
		+0.63%
FTSE 100*	7681.01	+68.15
		+0.90%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.428	3.508
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.328	3.387
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.0962	4.1579
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.2979	4.3371

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7412	0.7385
US $	1.3492	1.3541

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4513	0.6891
US $	1.0755	0.9298

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2018.00	2034.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	72.78	72.78

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1808, the Milan stock exchange (Borsa Valori di Milano, now called La Borsa Italiana) was established.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 20,957.74 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 1%.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.5%.
Lithium Americas Argentina Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.6%.
Today, 154 of 225 shares rose, while 66 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 1.6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on Jan. 31, 2024 and 12.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.3% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 on a trailing basis and 15.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.3t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.27% compared with 8.34% in the previous session and the average of 10.22% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 35.9405| 0.6| 17/10
Industrials | 20.9818| 0.7| 18/8
Materials | 9.5783| 0.4| 40/9
Energy | 6.6466| 0.2| 24/17
Consumer Staples | 5.6161| 0.6| 9/2
Communication Services | 4.7150| 0.6| 3/1
Utilities | 4.6483| 0.6| 13/2
Consumer Discretionary | 2.4935| 0.3| 10/3
Health Care | 1.7817| 2.9| 4/0
Real Estate | 1.4398| 0.3| 14/6
Information Technology | -7.9803| -0.4| 2/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | 13.0000| 2.5| -29.5| 0.6
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 8.7310| 1.2| -33.9| 8.4
Canadian Natural Resources | 7.8040| 1.3| -13.7| -5.3
Cameco | -3.5190| -1.8| -26.6| 12.4
Bank of Montreal | -3.6800| -0.6| 5.9| -5.3
Restaurant Brands | -4.2110| -1.8| -12.1| -0.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest bond market rebounded, with traders gearing up for a record $42 billion sale of 10-year Treasuries after a solid start to this week’s ramped-up issuance sizes.
Following a selloff that drove two-year yields to their highest since before the Fed’s December “pivot”, bonds climbed.
A $54 billion sale of three-year notes drew solid demand, bolstering sentiment and making traders shrug off a slew of cautious remarks from Federal Reserve speakers.
The S&P 500 edged up.
Mega-caps were mixed, with Tesla Inc. up and Nvidia Corp. down.
US-listed Chinese stocks rallied on bets the nation will be more forceful to prop up markets.
New York Community Bancorp tumbled 22%.
As expected, a drumbeat of central bank officials echoed Jerome Powell’s signals that the central bank will be in no rush to ease policy.
Fed Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said policymakers will probably gain confidence to cut interest rates “later this year” if the economy evolves as expected.
Her Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari celebrated the substantial improvement made on inflation, but indicated more progress is needed.
“The Fed expects to cut this year, but not right away,” said Chris Low at FHN Financial.
“While we continue to suspect market expectations for five rate cuts this year remains too optimistic, a factor in favor for bond bulls is that inflation-adjusted, or real rates, need to come down as price indexes improve,” said John Lynch at Comerica Wealth Management. “As a result, we suspect three cuts will prove sufficient to balance the risks to growth and inflation in 2024.”
As bonds managed to rebound on Tuesday, stocks barely budged.
Down days in the S&P 500 aren’t necessarily extinct, but they’ve become shallow relative to positive sessions.
Since early January, the gauge has seen an average gain of 0.66% in positive sessions, compared with a 0.45% drop in negative ones.
That’s pushed the ratio of the two to about 1.5 — the highest skew in favor of the bulls this far into a year since 1995, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“A period of consolidation across the major averages or a potential period of near-term selling pressure is probably overdue at this point,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.  “Such a development could be healthy in the long term and help recalibrate expectations.”
Citigroup Inc. strategists noted that investor positioning in US technology stocks is so bullish that any selloff could trigger a wider rout.
Wagers on declines in tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures have been completely erased, leaving investors overwhelmingly expecting further gains.
“The large consensus positioning is a risk that could amplify a turn in the market,” strategists led by Chris Montagu wrote.
Bullish trends in S&P 500 futures stalled last week, although positioning remains net-long, they said.
Volatile markets are predicted to be the greatest daily challenge for a second year in a row, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. electronic trading survey.
Access to liquidity is the biggest concern about market structure, ahead of regulatory change and data costs.
While volatility across asset classes remains relatively contained compared to recent gyrations, the worry is that it could spike if the global economy faces another shock.
Markets are pricing in over a percentage point of rate cuts from the Fed and European Central Bank, though the survey still sees inflation as having the biggest impact on markets in 2024.
In second place is the US election — with a flurry of other votes due around the world as well, plus mounting geopolitical risk.
“While conditions are good, volatility is very possible,” said Brad McMillan at Commonwealth Financial Network. “We saw some turbulence in January, and we aren’t out of the woods with inflation yet. So, while the trends remain positive, risks could increase over the next couple of months. This is something to watch out for but not worry about too much, given the strong economic fundamentals.”

Corporate Highlights:
* A dramatic accident on an Alaska Airlines flight last month was apparently triggered by a door plug that hadn’t been properly attached before the plane was delivered by Boeing Co., US investigators said Tuesday.
* UBS Group AG will buy back up to $1 billion in shares this year, as the bank seeks to keep investors focused on the upside of its complex integration of Credit Suisse.
* Palantir Technologies Inc. said that demand for its artificial intelligence products was driving sales, and gave a higher-than-expected profit outlook for 2024.
* Blackwells Capital, an activist investor seeking three board seats at Walt Disney Co., called on the entertainment giant to consider spinning off its famed theme-park properties and splitting into three companies.
* Eli Lilly & Co. forecast 2024 sales ahead of Wall Street estimates as the company rolls out Zepbound, its weight-loss shot that’s widely expected to become the best-selling drug of all time.
* Spotify Technology SA, the music-streaming giant, reported subscriber growth that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations amid international growth.

Key events this week:
* Germany industrial production, Wednesday
* Walt Disney earnings, Wednesday
* Fed’s Adriana Kugler and Tom Barkin speak, Wednesday
* China PPI, CPI, Thursday
* US wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks at a Senate banking committee hearing on the Financial Stability Oversight Council annual report, Thursday
* Pharma CEOs speak at a Senate panel on prescription drug prices, Thursday
* ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speaks, Thursday
* ECB publishes economic bulletin, Thursday
* US CPI revisions, Friday
* Germany CPI, Friday
* President Joe Biden hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0756
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2599
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 147.86 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.8% to $43,095.73
* Ether rose 4.1% to $2,379.9
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.09%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.29%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 3.95%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1% to $73.49 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,035.80 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Elena Popina and Greg Ritchie.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Sins committed in the dark are seen in Heaven like sheets of fire. –Chinese Proverb.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
Constitution Day, Mexico.

February 5^th, 1909: The world’s first synthetic plastic is announced.  Belgian chemist Leo Baekeland announced his invention of Bakelite at a meeting of the American Chemical Society on that day.
February 5, 1977 The album “Rumours” by Fleetwood Mac was released. Go to article >>

Key life skills you can learn from Martha Stewart
Grandparents, parents and children have all learned important life skills from Martha Stewart. Here are five you should add to your tool kit.

This is the world’s most terrifying ocean crossing
The Drake Passage is feared by travelers and sailors alike. Read stories from some brave people who have crossed the roughest conditions on the planet.

Venues and dates set for the 2026 World Cup
MetLife Stadium in New Jersey will host the 2026 World Cup final, the global soccer governing body announced.

The world’s rarest passport
There are only around 500 diplomatic passports issued by this sovereign nation with nearly 1,000 years of history.

Did art exist before modern humans? New discoveries raise big questions.
Scientists are finding ever-earlier examples of artistic expression in the archaeological record that reshape what we know about the cognitive abilities of our archaic human relatives, such as Neanderthals. Read More.

Our mixed-up human family: 8 human relatives that went extinct (and 1 that didn’t)
Modern humans are far from the only species in the Homo genus. Here are others that went extinct long ago.  Full Story: Live Science (2/5)

Major ‘magnetic anomaly’ discovered deep below New Zealand’s Lake Rotorua
Lake Rotorua, which sits at the heart of a dormant volcano and is the setting for one of New Zealand’s most famous Māori love stories, has been mapped in detail for the 1st time. Read More.

How do galaxies grow while ensnared in the universe’s cosmic web?
New simulations show how thousands of galaxies evolve by traveling through the strands of gas, dust and stars that make up the universe’s “cosmic web.” Read More.

April 8 solar eclipse: 4 telescopes and observatories where you can watch totality
The April 8 total solar eclipse will be visible from several astronomical observatories across North America. Here are four that have big events planned for the day the sun disappears. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Tokyo, Japan
A visitor walks through an exhibition by the Japanese collective teamLab at the recently opened 325-metre Azabudai Hills tower
Photograph: Richard A Brooks/AFP/Getty Images

Sylhet, Bangladesh
Migratory birds on a foggy morning in Dibir Haor
Photograph: Md Rafayat Haque Khan/Zuma/Rex

​​​​​​​Doha, Qatar
Karina Magrupova of Kazakhstan competes in the preliminary round of the women’s solo free artistic swimming event during the World Aquatics Championships
Photograph: Manan Vatsyayana/AFP/Getty
Market Closes for February 5^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38380.12	-274.30
		-0.71%
S&P 500	4942.81	-15.80
		-0.32%
NASDAQ	15597.68	-31.27
		-0.20%
TSX	20871.89	-213.20
		-1.01%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36354.16	+196.14
		+0.54%
HANG SENG	15510.01	-23.55
		-0.15%
SENSEX	71731.42	-354.21
		-0.49%
FTSE 100*	7612.86	-2.68
		-0.04%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.508	3.380
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.387	3.287
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1579	4.0199
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3371	4.2205

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7385	0.7427
US $	1.3541	1.3464

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4547	0.6874
US $	1.0743	0.9308

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2034.15	2045.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	72.78	72.28

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1637, “tulipmania” hit its peak in the Netherlands, with the price of the rare Witte Croonen tulip bulb reaching 1,345 guilders per half-pound, up 2,506% in 33 days. Over the next five years, these bulbs lose an annual average of 76% of their value, until they fetched only 37.5 guilders in 1641.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 1%, or 213.2 to 20,871.89 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.2% on Jan. 17.
Constellation Software Inc/Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.8%.
Lithium Americas Corp. had the largest drop, falling 8.0%.
Today, 197 of 225 shares fell, while 26 rose; all sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 0.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.8% below its 52-week high on Jan. 31, 2024 and 11.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.5% in the past 5 days and fell 0.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 on a trailing basis and 15.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.34t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.34% compared with 8.02% in the previous session and the average of 10.32% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -43.7976| -0.7| 6/21
Information Technology | -41.1500| -2.1| 2/8
Energy | -39.8234| -1.1| 3/37
Materials | -32.6309| -1.5| 5/46
Consumer Staples | -12.9760| -1.4| 1/10
Utilities | -12.4728| -1.5| 0/15
Communication Services | -9.1812| -1.2| 0/5
Real Estate | -7.8377| -1.6| 1/20
Consumer Discretionary | -7.3578| -0.9| 4/9
Industrials | -4.9850| -0.2| 4/22
Health Care | -0.9785| -1.6| 0/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Constellation Software | -19.7100| -3.8| 63.7| 11.0
TD Bank | -12.5200| -1.2| -9.0| -6.4
Shopify | -11.9700| -1.3| 10.6| 6.8
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 1.5640| 0.2| -37.2| 7.1
Manulife Financial | 1.7740| 0.5| 83.4| 1.0
Canadian National | 2.2850| 0.3| -21.2| 2.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders sent bonds and stocks down, with strong economic data reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve isn’t ready to call victory over inflation just yet.
Treasuries came under renewed pressure on speculation that optimism regarding disinflation may have gone too far.
In another sign that the world’s largest economy remains on solid footing, the Institute for Supply Management’s services gauge hit a four-month high while prices picked up.
The news jolted trading on a day when investors were already digesting cautious views from some Fed speakers including Jerome Powell.
The “one-two punch” prevented market players from achieving further upside, according to Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Marko Kolanovic said that “absent a material shock, we think this year’s easing will prove more moderate than markets have priced.”
US 10-year yields climbed 14 basis points to 4.16% and those on two-year notes approached 4.5%.
Fed swaps almost wiped out the odds of a March rate move, and the chances of a May cut have also been reduced.
The dollar hit its strongest since November.
The S&P 500 fell from a record high — but came well off session lows as Nvidia Corp. led gains in chipmakers.
Traders also waded through remarks from Fed speakers, with Powell reiterating that policymakers will likely wait beyond March to cut rates in an interview conducted Thursday with CBS’s 60 Minutes that aired Sunday evening.
Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said officials have time to gauge incoming data before easing while his Chicago counterpart Austan Goolsbee reiterated he’d like to see more of the favorable inflation data.
To Thierry Wizman at Macquarie, the shift in the market’s assessment of when the Fed will begin to cut rates seems valid.
“We had always thought that June was the likelier month for a cut in view of the Fed’s prudence,” Wizman noted. “What does worry us, though, is whether the ongoing strength of the US job market in January means that the US consumer will stay strong, thereby undoing the disinflationary trend, and extending tight monetary policy more indefinitely.”
The ISM’s overall gauge of services increased to 53.4 last month.
The index has remained above the 50 level that indicates expansion for a year.
The latest reading exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
The group’s metric of prices paid for materials jumped — showing that costs are rising at a faster pace.
Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial says the big uptick in prices paid mostly reflected the increase in shipping costs.
Investors should expect prices to revert if conditions in the Red Sea improve, he added.
The world’s major central banks mustn’t drop their guard in the fight against inflation as it’s too soon to say if sharp interest rate increases have contained underlying price pressures, the OECD said.
Meantime, the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey showed American shoppers won’t be deterred by mounting credit-card bills or the recent ripple of layoffs.
More than half of 463 respondents said spending will stay strong or get even stronger in 2024.
“The ongoing strength of the US economy relative to most of its G-10 peers is one of the key reasons why we have held a counter consensus bullish view on the USD since September 2023,” said Dominic Bunning at HSBC. “The strength of activity data will, in our view, make it hard for the Fed to have confidence that inflation is fully tamed. As such, we see rate pricing in the US being more prone to upside than downside for now.”
Bill Gross said he’s betting that part of the interest-rate curve will return to a more normal pattern, eliminating the inversion that’s persisted even after the Fed stopped raising interest rates.
The one-time king of the bond world said on social media X that he’s buying September 2024 contracts tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate and selling the September 2025 one.
Meantime, the Fed said US banks reported stricter credit standards in the fourth quarter, although the proportion of those tightening standards shrank from the prior period, according to the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices — known as SLOOS.
The report suggests the severe credit crunch feared in the wake of the collapse of four regional lenders last year hasn’t materialized. While high borrowing costs have more broadly weighed on households as the Fed has lifted interest rates to a two-decade high, the economy has remained resilient.
“Overall the survey is not indicative of monetary conditions that would indicate a central bank that has kept rates too high for too long, even if it does show a cooling from the very loose conditions that prevailed a couple of years ago,” said Michael Shaoul at Marketfield Asset Management.
With the S&P 500 coming off its best stretch in nearly four decades, the road gets tougher for investors as the calendar flipped to February.
It’s the third-worst month for the gauge in the past 30 years, behind September and August, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
After a torrid rally of almost 20% since October that took the S&P 500 to its first records in two years, there’s ample reason for concern: Artificial-intelligence hype came in for a reality check with the latest batch of big-tech earnings;
fevered speculation that the Fed would start easing next month has gone cold; and valuations remain elevated relative to history, evoking memories of the dot-com bubble for some strategists.
“It’s worth asking ourselves, have we priced in a little too much good news, at least in the near term?” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “Over the last two years, and especially during election years, this point on the calendar – February through March – tends to take a dip. Coupled with elevated sentiment and positioning, I expect to see a sideways to slightly negative move over the next 6-8 weeks as we get through seasonal choppiness.”
“After that, my longer-term outlook for the year remains positive,” he added.
Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. found more mistakes with holes drilled in the fuselage of its 737 Max jet, a setback that could further slow deliveries on a critical program already restricted by regulators over quality lapses.
* Caterpillar Inc., one of the world’s largest manufacturers of heavy machinery, batted away concerns of a global economic slowdown after reporting higher fourth-quarter sales in its energy and transportation business, which helped it to post profit that topped analysts’ expectations.
* The US Attorney’s Office in Manhattan has launched an investigation into the accounting practices at Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., according to people with direct knowledge of the matter.
* McDonald’s Corp.’s sales missed investor expectations in the fourth quarter as growth decelerated, hurt in part by the conflict in the Middle East.
* Tyson Foods Inc. posted quarterly earnings that beat even the highest of analysts’ estimates.
* Snap Inc. is reducing its workforce by roughly 10% worldwide, joining the chorus of technology companies that have announced fresh rounds of cuts in 2024.
* Estée Lauder Cos. said it’s cutting as many as 3,000 positions as part of a restructuring plan to put one of the world’s largest beauty companies back on track.

Key events this week:
* Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision, Tuesday
* Eurozone retail sales, Tuesday
* Germany factory orders, Tuesday
* UBS earnings, Tuesday
* Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks, Tuesday
* Fed’s Loretta Mester and Patrick Harker speak, Tuesday
* Germany industrial production, Wednesday
* Walt Disney earnings, Wednesday
* Fed’s Adriana Kugler and Tom Barkin speak, Wednesday
* China PPI, CPI, Thursday
* US wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks at a Senate banking committee hearing on the Financial Stability Oversight Council annual report, Thursday
* Pharma CEOs speak at a Senate panel on prescription drug prices, Thursday
* ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane speaks, Thursday
* ECB publishes economic bulletin, Thursday
* US CPI revisions, Friday
* Germany CPI, Friday
* President Joe Biden hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0742
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.2536
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 148.66 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $42,361.51
* Ether fell 0.4% to $2,289.39
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 14 basis points to 4.16%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 2.32%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.01%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $72.82 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $2,024.86 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jessica Menton, Elena Popina, Kasia Klimasinska, Reade Pickert and Alexandra Semenova.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Something will turn up. -Benjamin Disraeli, 1804-1881.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.   Imbolc: Wiccan Feast of Torches.   Candlemas.  Groundhog Day.

February 2, 1852: The first ever public toilet is opened in London.  Using the “Public Waiting Room” at 95 Fleet Street cost 2 pence (£3.50 in today’s money).
On Feb. 2, 1943, the remainder of Nazi forces from the Battle of Stalingrad surrendered in a major victory for the Soviets in World War II.  Go to article >>

Today is Groundhog Day, and legend has it that if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, we’re in for six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, we get to bask in an early spring. The bizarre tradition that dates back to 1887 also draws passionate crowds in the US — even though Phil’s accuracy rate is far from perfect.

James Joyce, b. 1882.
Ayn Rand, b. 1905.
W.H. Auden, b.1907.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX could launch a private moon lander within weeks
Riding aboard a SpaceX rocket, Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C lander is expected to lift off in mid-February, though the target window has not yet been announced. Read More.

‘Roots’ of Colombian mountains ‘dripped’ into the mantle millions of years ago — but the peaks still stand tall
Earth’s crust once formed a dense “root” supporting Colombia’s northern Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta mountains, but new research suggests this prop sank into the mantle millions of years ago. Read More.

2,000-year-old ‘bog body’ of teenager with missing skull discovered in Northern Ireland
The well-preserved skeleton still has portions of its fingernails and skin intact. Read More.

The Grammy Awards take place on Sunday
Among several musical appearances, Tracy Chapman will perform with Luke Combs, who is nominated in the best country solo performance category for his cover of Chapman’s timeless 1988 hit “Fast Car.”

Amazon launches AI shopping assistant
The e-commerce giant unveiled an AI shopping assistant dubbed “Rufus.” Here’s when it will roll out to US customers. 

See new Webb telescope images
These “mind-blowing” images reveal 19 galaxies “down to the smallest scales ever observed,” scientists say. 

Spotify tattoos: What you should know about the body art fad
Some devout music fans are getting Spotify tattoos that play songs when scanned. Artists are drawing attention to the possible risks.

Late Night:
One new poll shows President Biden leading former President Donald Trump 50 percent to 44 percent.
“I don’t know just how Joe did it, but political analysts think it may be his strategy of standing still while his opponent repeatedly quotes Hitler,” Stephen Colbert said on Thursday.

“Trump can’t understand why he’s losing the female vote. He was like, ‘No one has paid off more women than me.’” — JIMMY FALLON

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
A kingfisher perches on a frosty firethorn branch in Kirkcudbrightshire, Scotland
Photograph: Mediadrumimages/Jock Elliott
North Woodstock, New Hampshire, US
People explore the ice walls, trails and caverns at Ice Castles, created by Brent Christensen who crafted his first icy creation in the front yard of his home to bring happiness and joy to his children
Photograph: Joseph Prezioso/AFP/Getty Images
Zubieta, Spain
A group of Joaldunak called Zanpantzar take part in the carnival between the Pyrenees villages of Ituren and Zubieta. In one of the most ancient carnivals in Europe, dating from before the Roman empire, companies of Joaldunak (cowbell wearers) parade the streets costumed in sandals, lace petticoats, sheepskins, coloured neckerchiefs, conical caps and a hyssop of horsehair in their right hands.
Photograph: Álvaro Barrientos/AP
Market Closes for February 2^nd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38654.42	+134.58
		+0.35%
S&P 500	4958.61	+52.42
		+1.07%
NASDAQ	15628.95	+267.31
		+1.74%
TSX	21085.09	-34.12
		-0.16%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36158.02	+146.56
		+0.41%
HANG SENG	15533.56	-32.65
		-0.21%
SENSEX	72085.63	+440.33
		+0.61%
FTSE 100*	7615.54	-6.62
		-0.09%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.380	3.270
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.287	3.220
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.0199	3.8784
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.2205	4.1190

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7427	0.7475
US $	1.3464	1.3379

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4552	0.6872
US $	1.0808	0.9253

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2045.85	2053.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	72.28	75.85

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1869, the first warning signs of that year’s financial panic appeared: A New York newspaper reported that an IRS auditor had discovered that trustees of several city churches had taken $2 million in ecclesiastical trust funds and used them to speculate in stocks.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.2% at 21,085.09 in Toronto. The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 158 of 225 shares fell, while 66 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.4%. Interfor Corp. had the largestdrop, falling 4.3%.
Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 1.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on Jan. 31, 2024 and 12.8% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 on a trailing basis and 15.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.34t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.02% compared with 8.81% in the previous session and the average of 10.46% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -63.6601| -1.8| 2/39
Materials | -42.1946| -1.9| 5/47
Communication Services | -12.9741| -1.6| 1/4
Utilities | -5.1195| -0.6| 3/12
Financials | -3.8768| -0.1| 12/15
Real Estate | -2.5344| -0.5| 5/15
Consumer Staples | -2.2620| -0.2| 6/5
Health Care | -0.4250| -0.7| 1/3
Consumer Discretionary | 2.2925| 0.3| 7/6
Industrials | 13.7973| 0.5| 17/9
Information Technology | 82.8543| 4.3| 7/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -21.6700| -3.4| 16.1| -6.0
BCE | -9.5050| -2.7| 83.4| 2.0
Agnico Eagle Mines | -8.0510| -3.4| 55.7| -9.9
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 4.6910| 0.7| -17.6| 6.9
Constellation Software | 5.9470| 1.2| -19.5| 15.4
Shopify | 75.0800| 8.7| 50.7| 8.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market extended this week’s gains as big tech rallied and a solid jobs report bolstered the outlook for corporate profits.
Equities hit all-time highs, with the S&P 500 approaching 5,000 and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.7% on bullish outlooks from Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. Economic optimism outweighed bets the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut rates.
Treasury two-year yields jumped 16 basis points to 4.36%. The dollar climbed to its strongest since December.
“Today’s jobs report calls into question the narrative of a ‘soft landing’,” said David Donabedian at CIBC Private Wealth US. “The January jobs report was pretty dramatic, implying there may be ‘no landing.’ The economy is ripping ahead.”
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, strong growth in labor productivity means unit labor costs are under control — which is a good backdrop for company earnings. “It’s hard to get too bearish” with such economic resilience, said Bret Kenwell at eToro. Larry Tentarelli at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report sees the data as “a very bullish sign for the economy” — adding that “we are buyers on any short-term weakness in stocks.”
“Just as many were caught off guard by the recession that never appeared in 2023, there’s always the possibility that another year will go by without a recession,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance. Nonfarm payrolls surged 353,000 last month following upward revisions to the prior two months. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%. Hourly wages accelerated from a month earlier, increasing by the most since March 2022. Separate data showed US consumer sentiment increased sharply.
While signs of a strong economy may continue to bode well for Corporate America, the data just reinforce the view that the Fed will delay the start of its rate cuts.
“I think we can officially kiss a March rate-cut goodbye — and more than likely a May,” said Alex McGrath at NorthEnd Private Wealth.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she expects inflation to fall further with interest rates held at their current level — but noted it’s too soon for officials to consider cutting rates.
Swap contracts referencing the March Fed meeting date cut the odds of a quarter-point rate cut in half, to about 15% —while the May contract no longer fully priced in a cut, which it had for more than a month.
“A March rate cut now appears increasingly unlikely,” said Jason Pride at Glenmede. “The more likely trajectory is 2-3 cuts this year beginning around summer.” Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management says that it wasn’t just a strong January for the labor market. It turns out that previous months were stronger than initially believed.
“The dramatic upside surprise to both jobs and wage growth means that a March rate cut must be off the table now, and a May cut is also now potentially on ice,” she noted. Following Wednesday’s Fed decision, Chair Jerome Powell said that a cut is unlikely to come at the next gathering in March. He’ll will appear on CBS News’s 60 Minutes this Sunday to discuss inflation risks, expected rate cuts and the banking system, among other topics, the network said. Powell’s pushback on the Fed being ready to cut rates in
March now looks particularly “well timed,” according to Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co. To Richard Flynn at Charles Schwab, Friday’s figures may be another factor delaying the Fed’s first rate cut closer to summer, but if the economy maintains its comfortable trajectory, that might not be a bad thing.  “What’s the hurry?” he asks.
The strong market gains remain at nearly unprecedented levels — with shifting expectations on the Fed outlook “unable to crack the momentum,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Investors remaining on the sidelines are beginning to capitulate, which when paired with the return of share repurchases following earnings season, should act as a tailwind for markets,” Hackett noted.
Equities powered ahead Friday, led by a rally in megacaps that have driven the market surge from the bottom.
Meta, which dazzled shareholders with yet another impressive earnings report, soared 20% to a record. The surge added $197 billion to its market capitalization, the biggest single-session value addition, eclipsing the $190 billion gains made by Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. in 2022.
The rush into technology stocks is resembling the dot-com era, reflecting an assumption that the economy will perform strongly despite tighter monetary policy, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett. He notes that 75% of investors expect a soft landing and 20% a no-landing scenario. Yet, while a soft landing should support a broader range of equities, the so-called Magnificent Seven accounted for 45% of the S&P 500’s return in January, reflecting a “leaning toward no landing/bubble,” he said.
In other corporate news, Apple Inc. trimmed its slide as investors looked past a deepening slump in its China business. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. surpassed earnings forecasts as bigger-than-expected oil output from shale fields helped cushion the blow from weakening crude prices. A gauge of regional banks rebounded after a two-day rout.
Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $1.0793
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.2637
* The Japanese yen fell 1.3% to 148.30 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $42,945.79
* Ether fell 0.3% to $2,297.85
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 14 basis points to 4.02%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 2.24%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 17 basis points to 3.92%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to $72.14 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2,036.72 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Michael Mackenzie, Subrat Patnaik and Carter Johnson.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
As soon as you trust yourself, you will know how to live. –Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, 1749-1832.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com