September 19, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day in 1960, Chubby Checker’s record The Twist hit #1 on the music charts and launched a worldwide dance craze.

If you hear a voice within you say  ‘you cannot paint’ then by all means paint,  and that voice will be silenced. –Vincent Van Gogh.

And the day came when the risk it took to remain tight inside the bud was more painful than the risk it took to blossom. –Anaïs Nin.

Photos of the day

Artists with their painted bodies and wearing tiger masks perform during the annual ‘Pulikali’ or Tiger Dance in Thrissur, in the southern Indian state of Kerala. Pulikali is a colorful recreational folk art revolving around the theme of tiger hunting, performed to entertain people during Onam, an annual harvest festival. Arun Sankar K./AP

Tourists look at a traditional yacht sailing on the Mediterranean Sea during the Regatta of Nice in southeastern France. The regatta, which has been held annually since 2008, aims to highlight the strong historical ties to yachting, which was introduced at the end of the 19th century, in the region./Lionel Cironneau/AP

Market Closes for September 19th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15636.55 -40.39 

 

-0.26%

S&P 500 1721.64 -3.88 

 

-0.22%

NASDAQ 3789.384 +5.743 

 

+0.15%

TSX 12924.83 -6.57 

 

-0.05% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14766.18 +260.82 

 

+1.80% 

 

HANG 

SENG

23502.51 +385.06 

 

+1.67% 

 

SENSEX 20646.64 +684.48 

 

+3.43% 

 

FTSE 100 6625.39 +66.57 

 

+1.01% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.705 2.684
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.221 3.192
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.7446 2.6878
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.7962 3.7471

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.97416 0.97113 

 

US  

$

1.02652 1.02973
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.38890 0.71999
US 

$

1.35302 0.73909

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1366.29 1363.22
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 106.39 108.07
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell from a two- year high, as gold producers and financial stocks slid following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision yesterday to unexpectedly maintain the pace of its bond buying program.

Barrick Gold Corp. dropped 2.7 percent even as precious metals prices rallied. Manulife Financial Corp. and Sun Life Financial Inc. lost more than 1.2 percent as the threat of depressed yields weighed on the insurers’ investment portfolios.

Catamaran Corp. advanced 2.9 percent after Cantor Fitzgerald LP said the stock’s 9 percent slide yesterday represents a buying opportunity.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Index fell 4.62 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 12,926.78 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, trimming an earlier decline of as much as 0.3 percent. The drop halted a four-day rally that left the gauge at its highest level since July 2011. Trading volume was 7 percent above the 30-day average.

“People had their fun yesterday, but at some point that tapering is going to start,” Gareth Watson, vice president of investment management and research at Richardson GMP Ltd., said in a phone interview from Toronto. His firm oversees C$15 billion ($14.6 billion). “Tapering was just postponed, it wasn’t canceled.”

The benchmark Canadian equity gauge soared yesterday after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it will “await more evidence” for sustained economic recovery before reducing its $85 billion in monthly bond buying. The central bank stimulus has helped fuel a global rally in equities.

Yields on government bonds in the U.S. and Canada plunged yesterday after the Fed suggested short-term borrowing rates could remain near zero even if U.S. unemployment falls below 6.5 percent. The threat of cuts to the bond purchases had pushed the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes to a two-year high.

Financial firms dropped 0.2 percent for a second day of declines, led lower by insurers. Manulife fell 2.4 percent to C$17.16 and Sun Life Financial lost 1.2 percent to C$32.88.

Insurers invest in bonds to back future obligations to policyholders and low yields can pressure profits.

Materials producers sank 1.6 percent, following the biggest rally in six weeks yesterday after gold surged the most in two years. While the metal continued its advance today, an index of gold producers slumped 2.7 percent.

Investors are “likely hesitant because they don’t have a lot of conviction in the longer-term sustainability of higher gold prices,” Watson said.

Nineteen of 24 members in the S&P/TSX Gold Index retreated after each advanced at least 1.3 percent yesterday. Barrick Gold, the world’s largest producer, dropped 2.7 percent to C$19.94. Novagold Resources Inc. plunged 7 percent to C$2.67.

Catamaran, a provider of pharmacy benefits management, gained 2.9 percent to C$53.44. Cantor Fitzgerald LP analyst Justin Kew called the worst slide since May “overly punitive.”

Walgreen Co., one of the company’s main customers, said late Sept. 17 it would switch employees into a private insurance exchange in 2014.

Health-care companies rallied 3.4 percent as a group for the biggest gain in the S&P/TSX. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. jumped 3.7 percent to a record C$108.92.

Niko Resources Ltd. jumped 8.7 percent to C$4.12, snapping a three-day slide as energy companies climbed. The Calgary-based oil and gas explorer lost 9.1 percent during the losing streak.

“The material sector moved very strongly yesterday, and I think energy is catching up to that,” Youssef Zohny, portfolio manager at Richardson GMP in Vancouver, said in a phone interview.

US

By Nick Taborek and Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied to a record yesterday on the Federal Reserve’s decision to refrain from cutting stimulus as investors weighed the latest batch of economic reports.

ConAgra Foods Inc. lost 4 percent after first-quarter sales missed estimates. Walt Disney Co. dropped 2.1 percent as Morgan Stanley downgraded the shares. Apple Inc. gained 1.6 percent as the iPhone maker rose for the third straight day. Priceline.com Inc., the largest U.S. online travel agency by market value, closed above $1,000 for the first time. Rite Aid Corp. surged 23 percent as the drugstore chain raised its profit forecast.

The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent to 1,722.34 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 40.39 points, or 0.3 percent, to 15,636.55. About 6.8 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 13 percent above the three-month average.

“It’s been essentially a bleeding off of some of the party atmosphere from yesterday,” Kevin Caron, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $150 billion, said by phone. “At some point the market’s got to take a breather and I think today’s that day. There’s no real catalyst today in the data.”

The benchmark index climbed 1.2 percent to a record yesterday as the Fed unexpectedly refrained from reducing bond buying. Treasury yields have jumped since May, when Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke first outlined a possible timetable for a reduction in asset purchases.

The Federal Open Market Committee said it wants more evidence of an economic recovery before paring its $85 billion- a-month bond-buying program, surprising economists who predicted a reduction in the plan. The Fed has held the main interest rate near zero since December 2008 and pushed its balance sheet to a record $3.66 trillion through three rounds of stimulus, helping send the S&P 500 155 percent higher since March 2009.

“To be fair to Bernanke, he set the conditions necessary for tapering and the conditions are not there,” Ross Yarrow, who sells U.S. equities to European investors for Robert W.

Baird & Co. in London, said in a phone interview today. That’s “not because of any particular deterioration but because, by talking about tapering, he already achieved an adjustment in yields,” Yarrow said.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields climbed as high as 3.01 percent on Sept. 6 from 1.61 percent on May 1. They plunged 16 basis points yesterday to 2.69 percent.

Equity gauges whose performance some chart analysts consider predictive of stock market gains closed at records yesterday, including the Dow Jones Transportation Average, the Russell 2000 Index and the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index.

About 83 percent of the stocks in the S&P 500 rose above their average price over the past 50 days yesterday, and a quarter of them reached their highest levels in 52 weeks or more, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Both measures hit their highest since Aug. 1, a day before the benchmark index peaked and started a 4.6 percent retreat.

Some 136 S&P 500 stocks had their 14-day relative-strength index above 70 yesterday, the most since May 20, Bloomberg data show. RSI measures the degree to which gains and losses outpace each other and some analysts who watch charts to predict market moves consider a reading higher than 70 as indicating the stock has gained too far too fast.

Economic data today showed sales of previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly rose in August to the highest level in more than six years as buyers rushed to lock in interest rates before they rise further. Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded in September at the fastest pace since March 2011, a sign factories are picking up momentum.

Among other reports, the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators increased 0.7 percent in August.

Jobless claims in the U.S. rose less than forecast last week as two states began working through a backlog of applications that were caused by computer-system changeovers.

The U.S. economy will expand 1.6 percent this year, at the slowest pace since the recession ended in 2009, and grow by 3 percent in 2015, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index, which measures the degree to which economic data exceeded or missed projections, is at minus 0.01. It has fluctuated above and below zero since April, after reaching an 11-month high in February.

“People had their fun yesterday, but at some point that tapering is going to start,” Gareth Watson, vice president of investment management and research at Richardson GMP Ltd., said in a phone interview from Toronto. His firm oversees C$15 billion ($14.6 billion). “Tapering was just postponed, it wasn’t canceled.”

Investors are also watching the political wrangling over the approaching limit on federal spending. Government funding expires Oct. 1 and the Treasury is expected to exhaust its ability to borrow funds in mid-October, when it will hit the statutory debt limit.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, dropped 3.2 percent to 13.16, the lowest level since Aug. 14. The equity volatility gauge has tumbled 23 percent in September after rallying 26 percent in August, the biggest monthly gain since May 2012.

Financial and consumer-staples shares had the biggest drops among 10 main groups in the S&P 500, losing more than 0.4 percent.

ConAgra fell 4 percent to $30.80. Revenue in the first quarter missed analysts’ predictions as consumer foods volume was lower than planned. General Mills Inc. slipped 2.6 percent to $48.83 after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the shares to market perform from outperform.

Walt Disney dropped 2.1 percent to $65.72. Morgan Stanley cut Disney to equalweight from overweight, its first downgrade of the shares in more than four years, saying the company’s growth now depends more on its creative success. Disney delayed the Pixar film “The Good Dinosaur” by 18 months, leaving the animation studio that produced “Toy Story” without an annual release for the first time since 2005.

Banks had the largest decline among 24 groups in the S&P 500, falling 1 percent. Zions Bancorporation fell 2.8 percent to $27.96 and KeyCorp retreated 3.9 percent to $11.60. Regional lenders had been rooting for the Fed to let interest rates rise, which would help bring relief to bankers who’ve seen lending margins squeezed and expenses pushed up by new technology and regulations.

Life insurer Lincoln National Corp. tumbled 3.7 percent to $42.21 and MetLife Inc. lost 3.2 percent to $47.08. Insurers invest in bonds to back future obligations to policyholders and low yields can pressure profits.

Mining companies declined even as gold continued to rally.

Newmont Mining Corp. retreated 3.5 percent to $29.78, after an 8.2 percent surge yesterday. Barrick Gold Corp. slid 3.3 percent to $19.44. Gold for immediate delivery rose 0.2 percent.

Yesterday’s 4.1 percent jump in the metal’s price was the biggest since June 2012.

Pier 1 Imports Inc. plunged 14 percent to $20.33. The home furnishings retailer cut its earnings forecast for the year after second-quarter profit fell short of analysts’ predictions.

Same-store sales increased 3.5 percent in the quarter, compared with the average analyst estimate of 6.5 percent.

Technology and industrial shares had the best performance among S&P 500 industries. Apple jumped 1.6 percent to $472.30.

The stock has rallied 4.9 percent over three days, after an 11 percent slide since the Sept. 10 introduction of the newest iPhones.

Priceline, the largest U.S. online travel agency by market value, added 0.6 percent to $1,000.62. It climbed to as much $1,001 in intraday trading yesterday, the first time a stock in the S&P 500 changed hands at a four-digit price, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, which compiles the indicator.

Agilent Technologies Inc. increased 3.4 percent to $50.98 after announcing it will split into two public companies. One company will focus on life sciences, diagnostics and applied markets, retaining the Agilent name. The other will be comprised of Agilent’s current portfolio of electronic measurement products, according to a statement.

Rite Aid surged 23 percent to $4.58. The drugstore chain raised its annual profit and revenue forecasts after second- quarter results exceeded analyst estimates, helped by an increase in same-store pharmacy sales.

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. advanced 1.3 percent to $17.43. The video game maker said first-day sales of “Grand Theft Auto V” topped $800 million worldwide, surpassing the record set by “Call of Duty: Black Ops II” last November.

Groupon Inc. gained 9 percent to $12.59. The daily deals provider was raised to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus & Co.

Tesla Motors Inc. climbed 7 percent to $177.92. Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache said in a note the electric car maker is on track to “modestly” outperform margin expectations for the third quarter and raised his price target to $200 from $160.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

Life is like a garden,  Quite naturally, leaves wither and flowers fade.

Only if we clear the decay of the past

then and there can we really enjoy the beauty of the new leaves and flowers.

Likewise, we must clear the murkiness of past bad experiences from our minds.

Life is remembrance in forgetfulness.

Forgive what ought to be forgiven; forget what ought to be forgotten.

Let us embrace life with renewed vigor…

We should be able to face every moment of life with renewed expectation, like a freshly blossomed flower.

Mata Amritanandamayi, 1953-


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Answer me in one word.

-Shakespeare, 1564-1616


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

September 18, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day in 1917:

Alduous Huxley, who would one day write the novel Brave New World, is hired at Eton College. One of his students, Eric Blair, will later use the pen name George Orwell.

Also, on this day in…

1851, the New York Times was published for the first time.

1905, Greta Garbo was born.

1947, the US Air Force was established.

1970, Jimi Hendrix passed away from a drug overdose. The rock musician was 27 years old at the time of this death.

1971, Lance Armstrong was born.

1975, Patty Hearst was captured by the FBI after 19 months with the Symbionese Liberation Army.

Read more at History.com

Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength, while loving someone deeply gives you courage.  –Lao Tzu.

Photos of the day

A yacht sails along the Biryusa Gulf of the Yenisei River in the Siberian taiga area, south of Krasnoyarsk, September 17, 2013. Ilya Naymushin/Reuters

A worker mounts the logo on a rim at the serial production BMW i3 electric car in the BMW factory in Leipzig, Gerrmany. Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters

Market Closes for September 18th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15676.94 +147.21 

 

+0.95%

S&P 500 1725.52 +20.76 

 

+1.22%

NASDAQ 3783.641 +37.942 

 

+1.01%

TSX 12931.40 +97.29 

 

+0.76 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14505.36 +193.69 

 

+1.35% 

 

HANG 

SENG

23117.45 -63.07 

 

-0.27% 

 

SENSEX 19962.16 +158.13 

 

+0.80% 

 

FTSE 100 6558.82 -11.35 

 

-0.17% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.684 2.771
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.192 3.253
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.6878 2.8468
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.7471 3.8322

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.97793 0.97113 

 

US  

$

1.02256 1.02973
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.38216 0.72351
US 

$

1.35166 0.73983

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1363.22 1309.60
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 108.07 105.42
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose to the highest in two years, as mining companies rallied after the U.S. Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from reducing the pace of its monthly bond buying.

Barrick Gold Corp. surged 8.6 percent as the metal jumped the most since 2009. Athabasca Oil Corp. soared 4.7 percent after oil extended a rally following the Fed decision. Catamaran Corp. plummeted 9 percent to lead health-care companies lower.

BlackBerry Ltd. sank 2.2 percent after a report said the smartphone maker may cut staff.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Index jumped 97.29 points, or 0.8 percent, to 12,931.40 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, erasing an earlier decline of as much as 0.3 percent. The gauge has advanced 2.2 percent so far in September to close today at the highest level since July 2011.

“There is a wash of money on the sidelines, so people will be pushed into stocks as it goes higher and higher,” Paul Harris, partner and portfolio manager at Avenue Investment Management in Toronto, said in a phone interview. He helps oversee C$300 million ($294 million). “Gold and oil and the metals going up will certainly help Canada. You’re seeing a great rally.”

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his policy making colleagues held back from paring record accommodation as rising borrowing costs show signs of slowing the four-year U.S. economic expansion. The stimulus has helped fuel a rally in global stocks.

Among 64 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, 33 predicted officials would will reduce monthly buying of Treasuries by $5 billion or less, with 31 forecasting a cut of $10 billion or more.

Five of 10 main groups in the benchmark Canadian equity gauge advanced, led by a 5.1 percent rally among raw-materials producers.

The S&P/TSX Materials Index erased an earlier decline of as much as 1 percent as metals surged on the Fed decision. All ten of the Canadian benchmark index’s top performers were miners of precious metals.

Gold for immediate delivery rallied 4.1 percent for the biggest gain since January 2009. Copper futures rose the most in two weeks and silver surged 5.9 percent at 4:35 p.m.

Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold producer, soared 8.6 percent to C$20.50, its biggest jump since 2008. Aurico Gold Inc. rose 15 percent to C$4.54. Endeavor Silver Corp. jumped 15 percent to C$5.14.

Goldcorp Inc. rose 7.5 percent to $29.11, erasing an earlier loss after Chairman Ian Telfer reached a deal with Canada’s main financial regulator to settle allegations that he violated securities laws. The Ontario Securities Commission will hold a hearing on Sept. 20 on whether to approve the settlement, the OSC said yesterday in a statement.

Energy producers gained 0.5 percent as crude advanced the 2.5 percent, the most in three weeks. Athabasca Oil rose 4.7 percent to C$7.85, the stock’s highest price in over a month.

Catamaran, a provider of pharmacy benefits management, fell 9 percent to C$51.94, the lowest since July 17. Walgreen Co., one of the company’s main customers, said yesterday it would switch its employees into a private insurance exchange in 2014.

Goldman Sachs & Co. analyst Robert Jones said the impact to PBMs from the Walgreen move is “unclear.”

BlackBerry plunged 2.2 percent to C$10.64, erasing an earlier gain of as much as 2 percent. The stock reversed after Dow Jones reported the smartphone maker was preparing for “deep” staff cuts by the end of the year, citing people familiar with the situation. The shares rallied earlier on news the company would start selling a new version of its phone next week.

US

By Nick Taborek and Lu Wang

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed to a record after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from reducing bond buying, emboldening bulls who have enjoyed a 155 percent rally since stimulus began five years ago.

Utilities rallied the most out of 10 groups in the S&P 500 as investors snapped up high dividend-yielding equities. Newmont Mining Corp. and Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s largest gold miner, jumped at least 8.2 percent to pace gains among commodity companies. An index of homebuilders soared 6 percent to the highest level since July. FedEx Corp. rose 5 percent after earnings topped estimates.

The S&P 500 jumped 1.2 percent to 1,725.52 at 4 p.m. in New York, erasing an earlier decline of as much as 0.3 percent. The benchmark index climbed above its all-time high of 1,709.67 reached Aug. 2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 147.21 points, or 1 percent, to 15,676.94, also a record. Treasuries and gold rallied while the dollar slid. About 7.4 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, the most since June 28.

“Everyone was a little stupefied,” Erik Davidson, deputy chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Private Bank,  which oversees $170 billion, said by phone. “It’s great to own stocks when we’re at these great levels. When money’s going to continue to be free for a while, it all plays into the valuations.”

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his policy making colleagues refrained from paring record accommodation as rising borrowing costs show signs of slowing the four-year expansion. Treasury yields have jumped since May, when Bernanke first outlined a possible timetable for a reduction in the asset purchases.

“The Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today at the conclusion of its two-day meeting in Washington. While “downside risks” to the outlook have diminished, “the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement.”

The FOMC has been debating how to scale back its $85 billion in monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage debt aimed at stoking economic growth and reducing unemployment that was 7.3 percent in August. The Fed has held the main interest rate near zero since December 2008 and pushed its balance sheet to a record $3.66 trillion through three rounds of bond buying.

“What they’re basically saying is ‘Look, we’re not tapering yet, but we’re planning to taper pretty soon,’” said Michael Strauss, who helps oversee about $25 billion of assets as chief investment strategist and chief economist at Commonfund Group in Wilton, Connecticut.

Among 64 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, 33 predicted the Fed would reduce its buying of Treasuries by $5 billion or less, with 31 forecasting a cut of $10 billion or more.

The central bank’s stimulus program has helped the S&P 500 rally 155 percent from its March 2009 low. Speculation over the future of quantitative easing has whipsawed global asset prices since May. The S&P 500 tumbled 5.8 percent from a record on May 21 through June 24. It rebounded 8.7 percent to close at its latest record last month, then slumped as much as 4.6 percent before climbing again.

U.S. stocks volume surged after the Fed’s announcement.

About 552 million shares traded on all exchanges in the 10 minutes after 2 p.m., compared with 113 million in the preceding 10 minutes, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, dropped 6.5 percent to 13.59, the lowest level since Aug. 14. The equity volatility gauge has tumbled 20 percent in September after rallying 26 percent in August, the biggest monthly gain since May 2012.

The Dow Jones Transportation Index jumped 1.5 percent to an all-time high. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, which tracks shares in companies whose earnings are closely tied to economic growth, advanced 1.4 percent to a record. The Nasdaq 100 Index jumped 1.3 percent to its highest level since November 2000.

All 10 main S&P 500 groups advanced at least 0.4 percent.

Utilities rallied 3 percent as Treasury yields sank and investors increased purchases of high dividend-yielding shares.

Utility stocks pay 4 percent in dividends for the second-biggest payout among S&P 500 groups.

An S&P index of 11 homebuilding stocks rallied 6 percent after declining as much as 1.4 percent before the Fed statement.

Housing starts rose 0.9 percent to a 891,000 annual rate, following the prior month’s 883,000 pace that was weaker than previously estimated, the data showed. The median estimate of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 917,000. Permits dropped 3.8 percent.

D.R. Horton Inc. jumped 6.9 percent to $21.33. Lennar Corp. climbed 6.5 percent to $37.33. PulteGroup Inc. added 5.5 percent to $17.93.

Raw-materials stocks surged 2.3 percent. Newmont Mining, the largest U.S. gold producer, surged 8.2 percent to $30.87 and Barrick Gold jumped 9.7 percent to $20.11. Gold rallied the most since 2009, erasing an earlier decline after the Fed decision as the metal’s attractiveness as a store of value increased.

Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., the largest U.S. iron-ore producer, added 4.7 percent to $23.49.

FedEx rallied 5 percent to $116.25, the highest level since 2007. The company, regarded as an economic bellwether because of the variety of goods it ships globally, began taking steps last year to reduce costs by $1.7 billion as customers opt for cheaper shipping. FedEx is parking older planes sooner, trimming capacity to Asia and eliminating 3,600 jobs through buyouts.

Adobe Systems Inc. rallied 9.2 percent to $52.58. The largest maker of graphic-design tools said the number of Web subscribers jumped 47 percent in the fiscal third quarter, even as sales and profit declined.

The results are validating the strategy of Chief Executive Officer Shantanu Narayen to push the maker of Photoshop and Illustrator software deeper into Internet services. While that’s crimping near-term revenue and profit, the transition to a suite of online tools called Creative Cloud positions Adobe for more predictable growth in the future, according to Josh Olson, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co.

WellPoint Inc. lost 4.4 percent to $84.39 and Health Net Inc. fell 0.9 percent to $33.34. JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Justin Lake said the two companies would be most affected by any delay in the start of open enrollment in new health-care exchanges mandated by the Affordable Care Act.

UnitedHealth Group Inc. lost 1.7 percent to $73.04 for the only decline in the Dow.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

You are never alone because you are full of all the memories, all the conditioning,

all the mutterings of yesterday; your mind is never clear of all the rubbish it has accumulated.

To be alone, you must die to the past.

When you are alone, totally alone, not belonging to any family, any nation, any culture,

any particular continent, there is that sense of being an outsider.

The man who is completely alone in this way is innocent and it is this innocence that frees the mind from sorrow.

-Krishnamurti, 1895-1986


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

We live, not as we wish to, but as we can.

-Menander, c. 341-c. 290 BC


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

September 17, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day in 2001, the U.S. stock market reopened for the first time following the 9/11 attacks, ending the longest shutdown on Wall Street since the Great Depression. The Dow fell 684 points, which at the time was the worst one-day point drop in history.  -Steven Russolillo, WSJ.

This week also marks the 5th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers on  September 15th, 2008, which triggered the global financial crises.

As soon as questions of will or decision or reason or choice of action arise, human science is at a loss. –Noam Chomsky.

Photos of the day

Ben McCann, 11, and John Schunk, (r.) fish for rainbow trout on a dock at the east end of Sand Lake as the sun sets on Monday, Sept. 16th, in Anchorage, Alaska. Dan Joling/AP

An Indian devotee takes a picture of an idol of elephant-headed Hindu god Ganesha as it is lifted to be immersed in the Hussain Sagar Lake during Ganesh Chaturthi festival celebrations in Hyderabad, India. The festival is celebrated to mark the birth of Ganesha, the Hindu God of wisdom, prosperity and good fortune. Mahesh Kumar A./AP

Market Closes for September 17th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15529.73 +34.95 

 

+0.23%

S&P 500 1704.76 +7.16 

 

+0.42%

NASDAQ 3745.699 +27.853 

 

+0.75%

TSX 12834.11 +17.23 

 

+0.13 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14311.67 -93.00 

 

-0.65% 

 

HANG 

SENG

23180.52 -71.89 

 

-0.31% 

 

SENSEX 19804.03 +61.56 

 

+0.31% 

 

FTSE 100 6570.17 -52.69 

 

-0.80% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.771 2.779
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.253 3.273
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.8468 2.8624
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.8322 3.8658

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.97113 0.96885 

 

 

US  

$

1.02973 1.03216
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.37546 0.72703
US 

$

1.33575 0.74864

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1309.60 1311.79
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 105.42 106.59
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam and Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose a third day, after gaining the most in two weeks yesterday, as rising technology shares offset a slump in oil producers before a U.S. Federal Reserve policy statement tomorrow.

Wi-Lan Inc. rose 3.6 percent to lead technology stocks higher. Rockwell Diamonds Inc. soared the most in four years after the company found four rough diamonds of at least 100 carats. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. and Agrium Inc. fell more than 1.5 percent after a rival producer cut its quarterly forecast for fertilizer sales and prices.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 17.23 points, or 0.1 percent, to 12,834.11 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge has added 1.4 percent in September. Trading volume was in line with the 30-day average.

“There’s a lot of wait-and-see attitude in front of the Fed meetings tomorrow, there’s not a ton of conviction,” said Bob Decker, a fund manager with Aurion Capital Management, in an interview from Toronto. His firm manages about C$6 billion ($5.8 billion). “There’s a large amount of cash on the sidelines that could be convinced to move once the uncertainty surrounding tapering is removed.”

The Fed began a two-day meeting to weigh potential reductions in the rate of its monthly bond buying. The stimulus has helped fuel a global rally in equities.

Factory sales rose 1.7 percent to C$49.5 billion in July, the fastest in five months, on gains for commodities producers from crude to lumber and fabricated metals. The increase exceeded all 18 economist forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.

In China, foreign-direct investment grew 0.6 percent last month, compared with the Bloomberg estimate of 12.5 percent growth.

Eight of 10 main groups in the benchmark gauge advanced today, led by a 1.5 percent gain among technology stocks. Energy stocks fell the most, sliding 0.3 percent.

Element Financial Corp., the top-performing company in the S&P/TSX Financials Index this year with a 91 percent gain, added 1 percent to a record C$13.55.

Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s largest lender, rose 0.6 percent to C$66.32 and Toronto-Dominion Bank added 0.5 percent to C$91.43. Financial stocks added 0.3 percent as a group.

Wi-Lan increased 3.6 percent to C$3.75, extending a three- day rally to 12 percent. BlackBerry Ltd., the Waterloo, Ontario- based smartphone maker, rose 2 percent to C$10.88.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. climbed 1.3 percent to C$105.83, the highest close in a month, after Gary Nachman with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. initiated coverage of the drugmaker with a buy rating.

Energy producers slid, halting a three-day winning streak.

Crude fell to the lowest level in almost four weeks as a U.S. agreement with Russia to eliminate Syria’s chemical weapons reduced supply risk and on speculation that the Federal Reserve will start tapering stimulus measures.

Niko Resources Ltd., an oil and gas exploration company, dropped 5.3 percent to C$3.91. Bankers Petroleum Ltd. lost 2.4 percent to C$3.74.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan fell 2 percent to C$33.39 and Agrium retreated 1.5 percent to C$93.46. Mosaic Co., North America’s second-largest fertilizer producer, cut its quarterly forecast for potash and phosphate sales and prices because crop- nutrient markets have “softened.”

Global fertilizer markets have weakened, in part, because of fertilizer distributors’ cautiousness related to the breakup of Belarusian Potash Co., Mosaic said in a statement. On July 30, OAO Uralkali, the world’s largest potash producer, quit Belarusian Potash, the largest trader of the crop nutrient, because of a dispute with its partner Belaruskali.

“Dealers are cautious and are deferring purchases,” Jim Prokopanko, Mosaic’s chief executive officer, said in the statement.

Rockwell Diamonds jumped 45 percent to 42 Canadian cents, the most since June 2009, after announcing it has recovered four rough diamonds, one as large as 169 carats, from its operations in the Middle Orange River region in South Africa. The stones will be sold into a joint venture with Steinmetz Diamonds at market value, the company said in a statement.

US

By Nick Taborek and Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index toward a record high, as Microsoft Corp. announced a $40 billion buyback and Federal Reserve policy makers gathered for a two-day policy meeting.

Microsoft increased 0.4 percent, pacing a rally among technology shares, as the world’s largest software maker also raised its quarterly dividend 22 percent. Safeway Inc. rallied 11 percent after adopting a poison-pill to protect against a potential hostile takeover. Mosaic Co. sank 1.2 percent after the fertilizer producer cut its quarterly forecast for potash and phosphate sales and prices.

The S&P 500 added 0.4 percent to 1,704.76 at 4 p.m. in New York. The benchmark index is less than five points below its record high of 1,709.67 reached on Aug. 2. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index, which strips out biases related to market value, jumped 0.5 percent to a record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 34.95 points, or 0.2 percent, to 15,529.73 today.

About 5.1 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 14 percent below the three-month average.

“Everybody’s looking forward to tomorrow to see what the Fed’s statement is going to be,” Jerry Braakman, the chief investment officer of First American Trust in Santa Ana, California, said by phone. His firm oversees $1 billion. “With inflation being benign, it doesn’t require a more aggressive tightening than the market would expect.” Large buyback plans are “returning capital to the market, which helps propel it to new highs,” he said.

The Federal Open Market Committee will probably lower its $85 billion of monthly bond purchases by $10 billion, according to the median response of 34 economists in a Bloomberg News survey this month. That’s down from the forecast of a $20 billion reduction in a July survey. The central bank’s stimulus program has helped the S&P 500 rally more than 150 percent from its March 2009 low.

Growing speculation about stimulus cuts has whipsawed stocks since May, when Fed officials first indicated reductions could start this year. The S&P 500 tumbled 5.8 percent from a record on May 21 through June 24. It rebounded 8.7 percent to close at its latest all-time high before slumping as much as 4.6 percent from that level.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.6 percent to a six-week high yesterday after tensions over dealing with Syria’s chemical weapons eased and Lawrence Summers withdrew his bid to be Fed chairman. The former Treasury secretary would tighten policy more than Janet Yellen, the current Fed vice chairman who was his main rival to replace Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, analysts and traders last week.

A Labor Department report today showed the cost of living in the U.S. rose less than forecast in August, a sign it will take time for inflation to reach the Fed’s goal. Central bankers have said they are watching prices to ensure the U.S. doesn’t slip into a long period of diminishing increases, or disinflation, that damages the expansion.

In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, investor confidence increased for a second month in September. Foreign-direct investment in China rose 0.6 percent last month, trailing the median estimate of 12.5 percent growth in a Bloomberg survey.

Nine out of 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 rose, as industrial, consumer-discretionary and technology shares added at least 0.5 percent to pace gains. The Russell 2000 Index advanced 1 percent to an all-time high.

The CBOE Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, rose 1 percent to 14.53. The equity volatility gauge has tumbled 15 percent in September after rallying 26 percent in August, the biggest monthly gain since May 2012.

Microsoft increased 0.4 percent to $32.93. The repurchase program, which has no expiration date, replaces another $40 billion buyback plan that was due to lapse at the end of this month, Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft said in a statement.

The company’s dividend will rise 22 percent to 28 cents a share.

After struggling to keep up with rivals in the smartphone and tablet markets, Microsoft is retooling its strategy and seeking a new chief executive officer. The company has come under pressure from activist investor ValueAct Holdings LP, which pushed Microsoft to return more money to shareholders, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The size of the buyback eclipses most repurchase programs, though it’s smaller than the $50 billion plan announced by Apple Inc. in April. Authorized U.S. buybacks have reached a six-year high of $556 billion this year, data from Birinyi Associates Inc. show. Buyback authorizations have increased 58 percent this year compared with the same period in 2012, Birinyi data through Sept. 13 show.

“The news today is indicative of the trend we’ve seen all year, simply because companies are taking the low rates, borrowing some money, taking the cash, putting it to work,” John Canally, investment strategist for LPL Financial LLC in Boston, said in a phone interview. He helps manage $396.7 billion. “Companies have to find a way to be more efficient with their capital. Companies have to be able to generate earnings in a world where you’re getting relatively low growth.”

Safeway surged 11 percent to $30.99 for the biggest rise in the S&P 500. The grocery store chain adopted a shareholder rights plan to thwart any unfriendly takeovers, saying an undisclosed purchaser has accumulated a “significant amount” of stock.

An S&P 500 index of homebuilders advanced 0.4 percent. KB Home rose 0.6 percent to $17.27 and Lennar Corp. increased 0.8 percent to $35.04.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo confidence index registered 58 this month, matching August’s revised reading as the strongest since November 2005, a report from the Washington-based group showed today. Readings greater than 50 mean more builders view conditions as good than poor.

US Airways Group Inc. climbed 3.6 percent to $18.72 and Delta Air Lines Inc. advanced 0.7 percent to $23.32. The two airlines were each raised to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Broadcom Corp. gained 2 percent to $27.45. The chipmaker was raised to positive from neutral by Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Christopher Caso.

Mosaic, North America’s second-largest fertilizer producer, lost 1.2 percent to $45. Global fertilizer markets have weakened, in part, because of fertilizer distributors’ cautiousness related to the breakup of Belarusian Potash Co., Mosaic said in a statement. On July 30, OAO Uralkali, the world’s largest potash producer, quit Belarusian Potash, the largest trader of the crop nutrient, because of a dispute with its partner Belaruskali.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. fell 1.7 percent to $32.45 and Agrium Inc. retreated 1.3 percent to $90.69.

Outerwall Inc., owner of the Redbox DVD kiosks, dropped 12 percent to $49.49 after cutting its third-quarter and full-year forecasts because of discounts and shorter rentals.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

What is change?

One form appears, and another disappears.

Can we say that the butterfly used to be a caterpillar?

A substance in the caterpillar takes on the form of the butterfly.

Swami Prajnanpad, 1891-1974


As ever,

 

Carolann


Ocean, who is the source of all.

-Homer, c800 BCE-c701 BCE

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

September 16, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

We were down in San Francisco on the weekend to see a few of the America’s Cup races.  It is amazing to watch the speeds of these catamarans.  At one point, Emirates reached a speed of 58 MPH.  Today was a day off, but the racing continues tomorrow.  Oracle needs to win 9 more races, the Kiwis, just two to win the cup.  Attached is one of the photos I took with my mobile from the water.

The New Zealanders have a pop-up restaurant docked at Pier 29 until December.  It’s the Waiheke Island Yacht Club and its styled like a New Zealand beach house.  Executive chef Desmond Harris, who heads up Auckland’s acclaimed Clooney restaurant brings a Kiwi influence to the menu.  We had lamb and we both agree it was the best lamb we ever had.  Waihekeislandyachtclub.com.

Also, The Legion of Honor museum in Lincoln Park has  a fantastic exhibit on  how the new recreational sport of sailing influenced impressionists in the mid-nineteenth century and post-impressionists.  They have assembled an impressive collection of masters such as Claude Monet, Manet,  Renoir, Seurat’s, and many others from museums and private collections.  Definitely worth the visit.  There are a few model boats too.

Apparently there is nothing that cannot happen today.  –Mark Twain

Photos of the day

Ruth Duccini (c.) 95, who portrayed the Munchkin Town Lady in the classic film ‘The Wizard of Oz,’ poses with costumed characters from the film the Tin Man (l.) and Cowardly Lion at the world premiere screening of ‘The Wizard of Oz’ in IMAX 3D at the grand opening of the TCL Chinese Theatre IMAX in Hollywood, California September 15th. Fred Prouser /Reuters

The Costa Concordia ship lies on its side on the Tuscan Island of Giglio, Italy. Engineers succeeded in wresting the hull of the shipwrecked Costa Concordia from the Italian reef where it has been stuck since it capsized in January 2012, leaving them cautiously optimistic they can rotate the luxury liner upright and eventually tow it away. Andrea Sinibaldi/Lapresse/AP

Market Closes for September 16th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15494.78 +118.72 

 

+0.77%

S&P 500 1697.60 +9.61 

 

+0.57%

NASDAQ 3717.846 -4.338 

 

-0.12%

TSX 12816.88 +93.48 

 

+0.73 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14404.67 +17.40 

 

+0.12% 

 

HANG 

SENG

23252.41 +337.13 

 

+1.47% 

 

SENSEX 19742.47 +9.71 

 

+0.05% 

 

FTSE 100 6622.86 +39.06 

 

+0.59% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.779 2.764
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.273 3.247
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.8624 2.8846
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.8658 3.8349

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.96885 0.96590 

 

US  

$

1.03216 1.03530
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.37661 0.72642
US 

$

1.33372 0.74978

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1311.79 1322.12
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 106.59 108.60
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose the most in two weeks as financial firms and metals producers rallied after Lawrence Summers withdrew his bid to be U.S. Federal Reserve chairman and tensions over Syria eased.

Toronto-Dominion Bank and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce added at least 0.7 percent to lead financial stocks to the highest close in more than five years. Semafo Inc. and Rio Alto Mining Ltd. jumped at least 6 percent as gold futures gained for the first time in five days. Wi-Lan Inc. soared 6.8 percent after settling pending patent litigations with Alcatel- Lucent USA Inc.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 93.48 points, or 0.7 percent, to 12,816.88 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, the most since Aug. 29. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge has risen 3.1 percent this year.

Summers, former U.S. Treasury secretary and economic adviser to President Barack Obama, was considered the top candidate alongside Fed vice chairman Janet Yellen to succeed Ben S. Bernanke as head of the central bank.

“Yellen is probably the one who will be put in, they might wait until she gets appointed before they make any moves,” said John Kinsey, fund manager with Caldwell Securities Ltd. in Toronto. The firm manages about C$1 billion ($971 million).

“Gold is oversold, and it’s getting a little bit of relief today. We’re in kind of a bull trend here and it’s not surprising we’re up. New York’s having a good run here and we’re tagging along.”

Investors are debating the speed at which the Fed will taper its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases, perhaps as soon as this week’s meeting of policy makers beginning on Tuesday.

Rio Alto climbed 6 percent to C$2.29 and Semafo surged 8.8 percent to C$2.10. Gold for December delivery advanced 0.7 percent to $1,317.80 an ounce in New York, snapping four days of declines.

Dream Unlimited Corp. jumped 7.7 percent to C$11.80 as financial stocks gained 1 percent as a group for the highest close since December 2007. All 10 industries in the S&P/TSX advanced.

Toronto-Dominion, the second-largest lender in Canada, gained 1.2 percent to C$91.02 and CIBC rose 0.7 percent to C$81.73 after the two lenders agreed to a deal to split up the latter’s credit-card portfolio.

CIBC will receive about C$3 billion cash, along with an upfront C$200 million, from Toronto-Dominion and Aimia Inc. in exchange for about half of its Aerogold Visa card balances.

Aimia, a loyalty-card operator, picked Toronto-Dominion last month as its primary card partner after a two-decade long relationship with CIBC.

Aimia surged 7.3 percent to C$17.85, for a five-year high.

Encana Corp. retreated 1.8 percent to C$18.29 and Athabasca Oil Corp. slipped 2.3 percent to C$7.39 as crude declined to a three-week low. The U.S. and Russia struck a deal on Sept. 14 demanding the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons by mid-2014, with the U.S. saying it maintained a military option to ensure compliance.

Torex Gold Resources Inc. increased 0.7 percent to C$1.50 after the gold exploration company reported initial resources from its Media Luna project in Mexico.

“The resource came in at the upper end of expectations,” said Daniel Earle, analyst with TD Securities, said in a note to clients.

Wi-Lan soared 6.8 percent to C$3.62 after granting a multi- year license for some of its wireless products patents to Alcatel-Lucent. Under a separate agreement, Wi-Lan will also acquire a portfolio of patents from Alcatel-Lucent.

CGI Group Inc., Canada’s largest technology company, jumped 5.5 percent to C$35.37, the most in six weeks, after Standard & Poor’s Dow Jones Canadian Index Services added the stock to the S&P/TSX 60 Index.

The addition, effective Sept. 20, is expected to trigger 8 million shares of buying interest in the Montreal-based technology services company, said Thanos Moschopoulos, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets, in an e-mail to Bloomberg.

US

By Nick Taborek, Wes Goodman and Adam Haigh

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a five-week high and within 1 percent of a record, after Lawrence Summers withdrew his bid to be Federal Reserve chairman and tensions over dealing with Syria’s chemical weapons eased.

Boeing Co. rallied 3.9 percent to pace gains among industrial shares after Sterne Agee & Leach Inc. raised its price target. PulteGroup Inc. and D.R. Horton Inc. climbed at least 3.6 percent as housing stocks surged. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. added 3.6 percent after JPMorgan Chase & Co. advised investors to buy the shares. Packaging Corp. of America jumped 11 percent after it agreed to buy Boise Inc. for about $1.27 billion. Apple Inc. fell 3.2 percent, continuing its slide since introducing the latest iPhone on Sept. 10.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.6 percent to 1,697.60 at 4 p.m. in New York, after earlier rising as much as 1 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 118.72 points, or 0.8 percent, to 15,494.78. About 5.7 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 4.5 percent below the three- month average.

“I don’t think the market knew what kind of a Fed chairman Summers would be, and having him out of the running makes things look a lot more certain,” Colleen Supran, a principal of Bingham, Osborn & Scarborough in San Francisco, which manages $2.7 billion, said in a phone interview. “This tapering announcement that’s expected for Wednesday seems to be accepted by the markets. It’s probably going to be modest.”

Summers withdrew from contention before a two-day Fed meeting starting tomorrow. The former Treasury secretary would tighten policy more than Janet Yellen, who was his main rival to replace Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, analysts and traders last week.

Summers, 58, was one of three names that Obama had mentioned as possible replacements for Bernanke, whose term as Fed chairman ends on Jan. 31. Yellen, 67, the current Fed vice chairman, was also on Obama’s candidate list along with Donald Kohn, 70, a former Fed vice chairman, the president said earlier.

The S&P 500 rose 2 percent last week and today came within five points of its record high of 1,709.67 on Aug. 2. The benchmark gauge has rallied nine of 10 sessions this month, rising 4 percent to rebound from the worst monthly loss since May 2012, as reports showed China’s economy strengthened and the U.S. looked less likely to attack Syria.

The U.S. and Russia struck a deal on Sept. 14 demanding the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons by mid-2014, with the U.S. saying it maintained a military option to ensure compliance.

Economists expect the U.S. central bank to reduce its $85 billion in monthly bond-buying by $10 billion this week, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. The stimulus has helped the S&P 500 rally more than 150 percent from its March 2009 low.

Investors have been closely watching data to determine the timing and pace of any Fed stimulus reductions. A report today showed manufacturing in the New York region expanded less than forecast in September even as orders and shipments picked up.

Separate data showed industrial production rose in August by the most in six months, indicating U.S. manufacturing will contribute more to the expansion.

Growing speculation about stimulus cuts has whipsawed stocks since May, when Fed officials first indicated reductions could start this year. The S&P 500 tumbled 5.8 percent from a record on May 21 through June 24. It rebounded 8.7 percent to close at its latest all-time high before slumping as much as 4.6 percent from that level.

“Summers had been seen as a person who can add volatility to the market given his bias toward more aggressive tightening, should he take up the Fed chairmanship,” Gary Dugan, the Singapore-based chief investment officer for Asia and the Middle East at Coutts & Co., said in a telephone interview. “This brings Janet Yellen to the forefront and the consensus is she’ll build a follow-through of Bernanke’s policies.”

Options traders have scaled back hedges against potential stock losses. The CBOE Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, last week capped an 11 percent five-day drop, its biggest weekly slide since the week ended July 5. The gauge advanced 1.6 percent to 14.38 today.

The S&P 500 pared its gain around 1:40 p.m. as U.S. options exchanges halted trading for about an hour after reporting a malfunction with the industry data feed for disseminating prices. CBOE Holdings Inc., NYSE Euronext, Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. and Bats Global Markets Inc. reported shutdowns that were later resolved.

The interruption occurred days after securities regulators told market operators to find ways to make their systems more reliable. In a meeting with the heads of major U.S. securities markets last week, Mary Jo White, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, urged the executives to shore up price feeds in serving investors and traders.

Nine of 10 main groups in the S&P 500 advanced, with industrial companies, materials producers and financial firms rising at least 1.1 percent. About 19 percent of companies in the S&P 500 reached a new 52-week high today, the most since Aug. 1, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Boeing surged 3.9 percent to a record $115.67 for the biggest rise in the Dow. Sterne Agee analyst Peter Arment said the aerospace company is a “must-own stock” among large industrials and raised his price target to $164 from $120.

Delta Air Lines Inc. jumped 3 percent to $23.15 to pace gains in an gauge of air carriers. The Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index rose 1.9 percent to the highest level since Aug. 2. The measure has rallied 55 percent this year.

Financial shares rallied 1.1 percent as all but three of an S&P index’s 81 members advanced. Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest U.S. home lender, climbed 1.7 percent to $42.89. Travelers Cos. gained 1.2 percent to $84.57.

Bristol-Myers, the maker of the Eliquis blood thinner and the Bydureon diabetes treatment, rose 3.6 percent to $45.14.

JPMorgan raised its recommendation for the stock to overweight, a rating similar to buy, from neutral.

A team of JPMorgan analysts led by Chris Schott forecast the drugs company’s earnings may grow by an average 13 percent through 2020, driven by its forthcoming products. The analysts increased their price estimate for the shares to $52 from their earlier prediction of $50.

Packaging Corp. jumped 11 percent to $60.43. The fourth- largest U.S. producer of corrugated shipping boxes agreed to pay $12.55 for each Boise share, 26 percent more than Boise’s Sept. 13 closing prices. The deal includes $714 million in debt. Boise rallied 26 percent to $12.56, an all-time high.

Whole Foods Market Inc. added 1.1 percent to a record $57.71. The shares have advanced 12 straight days, the longest winning streak in the stock’s history. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. also extended its record rally to 12 days, rising 1.5 percent to $39.79. The world’s second-largest cruise-line operator, under pressure from its largest shareholder, doubled its quarterly dividend on Sept. 11.

An S&P gauge of homebuilders surged 2.1 percent. D.R. Horton jumped 3.7 percent to $19.84 and PulteGroup gained 3.8 percent to $17.14. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes retreated two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 2.86 percent.

Apple Inc. fell 3.2 percent to $450.12 for the biggest drop in the S&P 500. The stock has fallen 11 percent since the day before the world’s most valuable technology company introduced a new, lower-cost version of the iPhone.

Technology stocks were the only group to retreat in the S&P 500, sliding 0.3 percent. Hewlett-Packard Co. dropped 1.5 percent to $21.74 for the Dow’s steepest slide.

Citigroup Inc. expects the S&P 500 to rally 12 percent to 1,900 by the end of next year as valuations rise and investors pour money into mutual funds.

Tobias Levkovich, the firm’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said he favors shares of larger companies over smaller ones because foreigners will boost U.S. holdings and may prefer to buy well-known stocks. Computer makers, health-care providers and consumer discretionary stocks will outperform, he said.

“There is plenty of dry powder to push share prices higher as confidence returns,” Levkovich said in a Sept. 13 note. “A shift toward growth stocks seems appropriate along with large- cap names especially if foreign money moves into U.S. markets.”

The dollar depreciated 1.2 percent in the past week through yesterday, the biggest drop among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indexes. Treasuries lost 0.4 percent in September to the end of last week, heading for a fifth monthly decline, according to the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index.

“Markets were priced for the likelihood of a Summers nomination, primarily for the notion that he might raise interest rates sooner than perhaps other candidates, including Janet Yellen,” Tony Crescenzi, a portfolio manager and strategist at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund, said in an e-mail. “This news should result in outperformance of shorter maturities” before the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting starting tomorrow.

Summers had been the president’s favorite for the job.

Twenty U.S. senators, 19 Democrats and one independent, signed a letter of support for Yellen in July, who would be the first female Fed chairman if nominated and confirmed.

Former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, sometimes mentioned as another alternative, doesn’t want the Fed post and has made that clear since leaving the Treasury early this year, according to a person familiar with his thinking, who asked for anonymity to discuss private conversations.

“Summers withdrawing helps to crystalize the outlook and it does put the market on a more dovish stance going forward,” Tai Hui, the Hong Kong-based chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, which oversees about $1.5 trillion, said by telephone. “Obviously we have other names, but the reality seems a bit more support for Yellen after Summers’ exit from the race.”

A poll of investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers, conducted Sept. 10, showed Yellen was viewed more favorably. Sixty percent of respondents had a positive view of Yellen, compared with 37 percent for Summers.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

Life is an aspiration.  Its mission is to strive after perfection, which is self-fulfillment.

The ideal must not be lowered because of our weaknesses or imperfections.

-Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

It is a great art to saunter.

-Henry David Thoreau, 1817-1862


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

September 13, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

As Carolann is out of the office this afternoon, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf!

This Sunday, September 15th marks the 33rd annual Terry Fox Run.  The run will be taking place at the intersection of Dallas Road and Douglas street, near Mile Zero.  The run from Mile Zero is a 5km run along Dallas Road to St. Charles road and back.  Registration is at 9am with opening ceremonies at 10am feating the band “The Bald Eagles” debuting their newly recorded song for Terry, “Running for our Lives”.  Even if you are not a runner, feel free to come on down and cheer on all the runners!

Happiness is when what you think, what you say, and what you do are in harmony.Mahatma Gandhi

Photos of the Day –September 13th, 2013

An officer from Contra Costa County Sheriff’s Office climbs a portion of an obstacle course during the Best in the West 2013 Invitational S.W.A.T. Competition in San Jose, California September 12th. The two-day, seven course competition draws S.W.A.T. teams from all over the country. Josh Edelson/Reuters

Competitors pedal their way below the Chateau Frontenac, top, during the UCI World Tour Grand Prix cycling race in Quebec City. Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press/AP

Market Closes for September 13th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15376.06 +75.42 

 

+0.49%

S&P 500 1687.99 +4.57 

 

+0.27%

NASDAQ 3722.184 +6.217 

 

+0.17%

TSX 12723.40 +22.35

 

+0.18%

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14404.67 +17.40

 

+0.12%

 

HANG 

SENG

22915.28 -38.44

 

-0.17%

 

SENSEX 19732.76 -49.12

 

-0.25%

 

FTSE 100 6583.80 -5.18

 

-0.08%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.764 2.781
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.247 3.261
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.8846 2.9029
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.8349 3.8467

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.96590 0.96839

 

US  

$

1.03530 1.03265
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.37685 0.72630
US 

$

1.32990 0.75193

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1326.39 1322.12
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 108.21 108.60
BRENT 109.360 109.360

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose, following the biggest retreat in two weeks yesterday, as commodity producers advanced after concern over possible cuts to U.S. central bank stimulus eased.

Niko Resources Ltd., the Canadian oil and natural gas explorer, jumped 10 percent to lead energy shares higher despite a decline in oil prices amid continuing talks over Syria.

Centerra Gold Inc. and B2Gold Corp. rallied at least 5.2 percent. Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. and Canadian National Railway Co. gained more than 0.5 percent. Silvercorp Metals Inc. fell 2 percent as the commodity’s price tumbled.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 22.35 points, or 0.2 percent, to 12,723.40 at 4 p.m. in Toronto.

Trading volume was 12 percent below the 30-day average. The benchmark Canadian index trimmed its loss for the week to 0.8 percent.

Stocks rose after a “long week of selling pressure on the Canadian markets” due to the lowering tensions over Syria, Paul Gardner, portfolio manager at Avenue Investment Management, said in a phone interview. His firm oversees C$300 million ($290 million). “What gets hit hard is oil and gold. But it was a bit overdone, so we are seeing a bit of a relief rally” in those industries.

Oil and gold prices led commodities lower today after the U.S. and Russia discussed a plan for Syria to surrender chemical weapons. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry reported a “constructive” start to the talks. President Barack Obama has delayed a possible U.S. military intervention to take up the proposal for international oversight of Syria’s chemicals arsenal.

Equities rose as concerns eased over possible cuts to U.S. central bank stimulus. Investors, who have been scrutinizing economic data to determine whether growth is robust enough for the Federal Reserve to slow stimulus following its Sept. 17-18 meeting, will see a reduction next week as no big deal, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of investors.

Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed say they don’t expect a sudden change in the markets because investors already anticipate tapering action.

U.S. data today showed retail sales rose 0.2 percent, the smallest increase in four months and below the 0.5 percent advance seen in Bloomberg survey. Consumer confidence in the U.S. declined in September to the lowest level since April.

Wholesale prices in the U.S. rose more than forecast in August, while a separate report showed inventories at companies increased more than forecast in July.

“The retail sales were somewhat disappointing, but put all of the economic data together and it seems neutral,” Richard Sichel, who oversees about $1.9 billion as chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., said by phone. “The fear of the Fed taper has gone away, as has the immediacy of the Syrian crisis.”

Energy shares rose 0.2 percent as a group, even as West Texas Intermediate crude capped its biggest weekly drop since July. Six out of 10 industries advanced in the S&P/TSX.

Calgary-based Niko Resources increased 10 percent to C$4.17. The gas and oil company’s stock had plummeted as much as 68 percent this year, reaching an almost 15-year low on Sept. 6.

AltaGas Ltd. shares rose 1.2 percent to C$35.43 after the company said late Thursday it will acquire a 25 percent stake in Petrogas Energy Corp., a privately held North American integrated midstream company.

Raw-materials stocks added 1.4 percent. Centerra Gold paced gains among mining companies, rising 7 percent to C$6.27 for its largest increase in more than three weeks. B2Gold Corp. climbed 5.2 percent to C$2.63. Gold companies plunged 5.3 percent as a group yesterday.

Gabriel Resources Ltd. rallied 12 percent to 93 Canadian cents. The gold and silver exploration company, backed by billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson, slumped 54 percent on Sept. 9, its biggest decline in 25 years. The drop came on news that Romania’s prime minister urged lawmakers to reject plans for a gold mine.

Silvercorp Metals tumbled 2 percent to C$3.41. Silver futures dropped 1.9 percent, while gold for December delivery was down 1.7 percent today. Both metals had the largest weekly decline since June.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., Canada’s largest maker of the fertilizer, rallied 2.3 percent to C$33.57 and Agrium Inc. climbed 1.4 percent to C$92.55.

Russian entrepreneur Vladimir Kogan, a longtime ally of President Vladimir Putin, is the leading bidder for the world’s leading potash producer, OAO Uralkali. Kogan is seeking to buy out the company’s three main shareholders, according to people familiar with the situation.

The talks began after Belarus arrested Uralkali Chief Executive Officer Vladislav Baumgertner Aug. 26, a month after he pulled out of a trading venture with Belarus, said the people familiar with the matter. The breakup of the venture sent potash prices plummeting.

“People view this sale of stock as a precursor event to the BPC export agency getting back together again,” Mark Gulley, a New York-based analyst at BGC Partners LP, said by phone, referring to Uralkali and Belaruskali’s venture, Belarusian Potash Co. “A lot of people believe that this is one of many steps to BPC getting back together again.”

Industrial shares gained 0.4 percent as railroad companies climbed. Canadian Pacific Railway jumped 1.7 percent to C$127.75. Canadian National Railway gained 0.5 percent to C$101.28.

US

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft and Lu Wang

Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average capping its best week since January, as disappointing economic data fueled bets that any Federal Reserve stimulus cuts this month would be moderate.

Safeway Inc. advanced 6.1 percent after Credit Suisse Group AG raised its recommendation for the shares. Intel Corp. gained 3.6 percent after Jefferies Group LLC upgraded the stock.

GameStop Corp. surged 6.1 percent as U.S. video-game sales saw the first monthly rise 2011, a research group said. Peabody Energy Corp. dropped 3.2 percent as the Environmental Protection Agency revises proposed rules for new power plants.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.3 percent to 1,687.99 at 4 p.m. in New York. The gauge climbed 2 percent in the past five days, its best week in two months. The Dow jumped 0.5 percent to 15,376.06. It advanced 3 percent this week, the most since Jan. 4. About 5 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 16 percent below the three-month average.

“The view is that we’re recovering and continue to do it in a slow pace,” Channing Smith, who helps oversee about $1.2 billion at Capital Advisors Inc. in Tulsa, Oklahoma, said in a phone interview. “The Fed will begin to taper but will be on a magnitude of $10 billion, which shouldn’t have an impact.”

Investors, who have been scrutinizing economic data to determine whether growth is robust enough for the Fed to slow stimulus following its Sept. 17-18 meeting, will see a reduction next week as no big deal, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of investors.

Fifty-seven percent of those surveyed say they don’t expect a sudden change in the markets because investors already anticipate tapering action.

A Commerce Department report today showed retail sales in the U.S. rose 0.2 percent, the smallest increase in four months and below the 0.5 percent advance seen in Bloomberg survey.

Wholesale prices in the U.S. rose more than forecast in August, adding 0.3 percent on higher costs for food and some fuels.

A separate report showed inventories at companies increased more than forecast in July, trailing a gain in sales that signals a pickup in factory orders. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary September index of consumer sentiment fell to 76.8 from 82.1 last month, which was the lowest since April.

The Fed will taper its $85 billion in monthly bond-buying by $10 billion to $75 billion after next week’s meeting, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Fed stimulus helped push the S&P 500 more than 150 higher from its March 2009 low, as better-than-estimated corporate earnings also fueled gains.

The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent yesterday, halting a seven-day win streak, amid concern that the U.S. has not ruled out military action against Syria. The threat of a U.S. strike roiled markets in August, dropping the S&P 500 to its worst performance since May 2012. The gauge has rallied 3.4 percent so far in September.

Secretary of State John Kerry reported a “constructive” start to talks with his Russian counterpart over bringing Syria’s chemical weapons under international oversight, while giving no sign of a breakthrough. Kerry told Syrian opposition figures yesterday that the option of a U.S. military strike remains on the table.

“Syria had a negative impact on markets in August, and now the negative impact is coming off,” Randy Warren, chief investment officer at Warren Financial Service, said in a phone interview. His firm oversees $100 million.

Investors are also watching renewed political wrangling over the approaching limit on federal spending. Government funding expires Oct. 1 and the Treasury is expected to exhaust its ability to borrow funds in mid-October, when it will hit the statutory debt limit.

U.S. House members left Washington for the weekend yesterday after leaders shifted strategies in an effort to win over dissenting Republicans willing to risk a financial crisis to sidetrack President Barack Obama’s health-care law.

Republicans said they will try to use the spending-bill talks to delay the health-care law instead of defunding it.

The CBOE Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, fell 0.9 percent to 14.16, capping an 11 percent five-day drop, its biggest weekly slide since July 5.

The equity volatility gauge has tumbled 17 percent in September after rallying 26 percent in August, the biggest monthly gain since May 2012.

All 10 main industries in the S&P 500 advanced today, with producers of consumer staples and utility stocks rising at least 0.8 percent. Procter & Gamble Co. added 1 percent to $79.05 and NRG Energy Inc. jumped 3 percent to $27.14.

Intel climbed 3.6 percent, the most since June, to $23.44 for the biggest gain in the Dow. Jefferies boosted its recommendation on the world’s largest chipmaker to buy from hold.

Safeway surged 6.1 percent to $28.20. Credit Suisse upgraded the second-largest U.S. supermarket chain to outperform, similar to buy, from underperform.

GameStop rose the most in the benchmark index, adding 6.1 percent to $52.45. U.S. sales of video-game products rose 1 percent last month to $521 million, the first four-week gain in almost two years, driven by new titles including Walt Disney Co.’s “Infinity,” featuring collectible characters. GameStop is the largest retailer in the market.

Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. surged 17 percent to a record $117.53 after reporting second-quarter earnings of 70 cents a share, beating the 67-cent average projection by analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

Peabody Energy dropped 3.2 percent to $17.98. The stock has fallen three straight days after reports that the Obama administration would ban new coal plants without strict emission controls. The environmental rules are expected to be released next week. Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. lost 1.6 percent to $22.07.

Apple Inc. dropped 1.7 percent to $464.90. The world’s most valuable technology company lost 6.7 percent this week as the price of its new lower-cost iPhone disappointed analysts.

Twitter Inc. disclosed it had filed to go public in one of its 140-character postings yesterday, giving no other financial figures or details on when it will actually list. Twitter’s market debut will be led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and is likely to be the most anticipated initial public offering since Facebook Inc. listed last year.

“What Twitter management and Goldman are doing is observing that valuations are at healthy levels and that it’s a good time to attempt an IPO of this scale,” Lawrence Creatura, a Rochester, New York-based fund manager at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees about $364 billion, said in a phone interview.

The S&P 500 trades at 16.2 times reported earnings, above the average multiple of 15.3 over the past five years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The gauge has advanced 18 percent this year.

 

Have a wonderful weekend everyone!!!

 

Be magnificent!

 

To enjoy good health, to bring true happiness to one’s family, to bring peace to all, one must first discipline and control one’s own mind. If a man can control his mind he can find the way to Enlightenment, and all wisdom and virtue will naturally come to him.Buddha

 

As ever,

 

Amanda Bourke

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.

 

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8X 3Y7

Tel: 778-430-5808

Fax: 778-430-5838

 

 

September 12, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

A good news story appeared today:

By MIKE PFLANZ:

NAIROBI, KENYAScientists using technology for discovering oil have found a vast underground water reservoir in one of Kenya’s driest regions that could supply the country’s needs for nearly 70 years, potentially turning arid zones into lush farmlands.  The new reserves are located in a basin in the extreme northwest that has a surface area the size of Delaware and is estimated to hold

billions of gallons, nearly nine times Kenya’s current reserves.  Almost half of Kenya’s 41 million people  have no access to clean water, and farmers in arid areas struggle to raise crops without  adequate irrigation.  Scientists say it is possible that, along with  water runoff from surrounding hills and plains that replenish the aquifer, the newly discovered resources could fulfill the country’s water demands indefinitely.  Tapping the new reserves in the basin, located in Kenya’s northern Turkana region, may allow for vast new zones of farmland in landscapes where today even the hardiest plants struggle to survive.  “The news about these water reserves are highly needed,” said Judi Wakhungu,  cabinet secretary at the Kenyan Environment,  Water, and Natural Resources Ministry.

It’s fun; baseball’s fun. –Yogi Berra

Photos of the Day –September 12th, 2013

Mascots make their way around the track in the Minnesota Twins Race at Target field after the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics in Minneapolis. Jim Mone/AP

Flood waters course through a small park in Boulder, Colo., in this image made with a slow shutter speed. Heavy rains and scarring from recent wildfires sent walls of water crashing down mountainsides in the area. Jud Valeski/AP

Market Closes for September 12th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15300.64 -25.96 

 

-0.17%

S&P 500 1683.42 -5.71 

 

-0.34%

NASDAQ 3715.968 -9.042 

 

-0.24%

TSX 12701.05 -124.37 

 

-0.97% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14387.27 -37.80 

 

-0.26% 

 

HANG 

SENG

22953.72 +16.58 

 

+0.07% 

 

SENSEX 19781.88 -215.57 

 

-1.08% 

 

FTSE 100 6588.98 +0.55 

 

+0.01% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.781 2.780
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.261 3.261
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.9029 2.9084
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.8467 3.8467

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.96839 0.96941 

 

US  

$

1.03265 1.03155
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.37318 0.72824
US 

$

1.32977 0.75201

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1322.12 1365.26
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 108.60 107.56
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell the most in two weeks as precious metals plunged on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will taper stimulus when policy makers meet next week.

Goldcorp Inc. and Eldorado Gold Corp. sank at least 6.2 percent as the price of gold slumped the most in nine weeks.

Endeavour Silver Corp. retreated 9 percent. Teck Resources Ltd. lost 3.5 percent as copper touched a five-week low. Reitmans Canada Ltd. tumbled 13 percent to a nine-year low after reporting weaker-than-estimated profits yesterday.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 124.37 points, or 1 percent, to 12,701.05 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, the biggest decline since Aug. 27. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge has risen 2.2 percent this year.

“All across Canada you can see gold and the resource sector are down quite aggressively today,” said John Tsagarelis, a fund manager with Manulife Asset Management Ltd. in Toronto. He manages C$550 million ($533 million). “If tapering happens, yields go up, the U.S. dollar strengthens and gold sells off. Somebody was being very aggressive with gold this morning. The Syrian situation is probably the story getting the most headlines.”

U.S. Federal Reserve officials, set to meet Sept. 17-18, are watching economic data to determine when to begin scaling back the central bank’s $85 billion in monthly asset purchases.

The U.S. and Russia met today to discuss a plan for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons, potentially averting a military strike. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said negotiating a deal must be a “two-way street” in which the Obama administration drops its military threats and stops arming Syrian rebels. Last month, gold gained 6.3 percent on escalating tensions in the Middle Eastern country.

Raw-materials stocks sank 3.5 percent as a group, leading declines as all 10 groups in the S&P/TSX retreated. Trading volume was in line with the 30-day average.

Goldcorp slumped 6.3 percent to C$26.81 and Eldorado Gold fell 7.5 percent to C$7.19 as all 24 members of the S&P/TSX Gold Index declined. The index is down 5.3 percent, the lowest close in a month.

Gold for December delivery lost 2.4 percent to settle at $1,330.60 an ounce in New York, the biggest drop since July 5.

Endeavour Silver sank 9 percent to C$4.36 and Silvercorp Metals Inc. tumbled 8.2 percent to C$3.48 as silver futures plunged 4.4 percent in New York. The metal has slumped 27 percent this year.

Teck Resources, Canada’s largest diversified miner, declined 3.5 percent to C$28.43 and First Quantum Minerals Ltd. slipped 2.2 percent to C$18.59 as the price of copper slid 1.4 percent. Wholesale prices dropped the most since 2009 last month in Germany, the world’s third-biggest copper consumer, official statistics showed today.

Reitmans Canada, a women’s apparel retailer, slumped 13 percent to C$8.03, the lowest since 2004. The company posted adjusted earnings of 16 Canadian cents a share, short of the 36 cents mean estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Same- store sales, a measure of revenue from outlets open at least a year, sank 6.8 percent in the second quarter.

Transat A.T. Inc., the travel services company, jumped 6 percent to C$9.90, the highest since August 2011, after reporting higher-than-estimated third-quarter earnings and forecasting better results than last year for the fourth quarter.

“We are on our way to a profitable year,” Jean-Marc Eustache, chief executive officer with Transat, said in the release.

Encana Corp. gained 3.8 percent to C$18.61, the highest close since June, after signaling potential asset sales in a strategy update. The company has more inventory, particularly in dry natural gas, than can be optimally developed, and must focus its portfolio, Encana said in a statement.

“Encana appears to be back on the road to winning again,” said Greg Pardy, co-head of global energy research with RBC Capital Markets, in a note to clients today. Pardy upgraded his rating for the stock to outperform, the equivalent of a buy, from sector perform. “Encana’s efforts to re-engineer its strategic game plan appear to be nearing completion sooner than its target of year-end 2013.”

US

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft and Aubrey Pringle

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell, halting a seven- day win streak for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as materials producers slid amid growing concern over Syria and investors weighed the prospects for Federal Reserve stimulus cuts.

Barrick Gold Corp. dropped 5.5 percent as the precious metal slumped the most since July. Newmont Mining Corp., the largest U.S. gold producer, lost 4.2 percent. Lululemon Athletica Inc. tumbled 5.4 percent after cutting its earnings forecast. Walt Disney Co. rallied 2.4 percent after saying it would buy back as much as $8 billion in shares. Pandora Media Inc. jumped 12 percent to a record after naming digital- advertising veteran Brian McAndrews as its new chief executive officer.

The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent to 1,683.42 at 4 p.m. in New York, snapping the longest streak of gains since July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 25.96 points, or 0.2 percent, to 15,300.64. About 5.7 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 4 percent below the three-month average.

“It shouldn’t be too surprising to see a modest pullback after the strong moves we’ve seen so far this month,” Ryan Larson, the Chicago-based head of U.S. equity trading at RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc., said in an interview. His firm oversees $290 billion. “With data light over the next several sessions, potential headlines regarding Syria and the much anticipated FOMC meeting next week will garner much of the attention.”

The S&P 500 rallied 3.4 percent in September through yesterday, rebounding from the worst monthly loss since May 2012, as reports showed China’s economy has strengthened and the U.S. looked less likely to attack Syria.

The tensions increased today as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told top Syrian opposition figures in a phone call today that the option of a U.S. military strike remains on the table, according to a State Department official. Kerry arrived in Geneva for talks with his Russian counterpart on a proposal for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad set conditions for the U.S., saying a deal must be a “two-way street” in which the Obama administration drops its military threats and stops arming Syrian rebels.

The tensions over Syria have competed for investor attention with concern about reductions in Fed stimulus.

Investors have been scrutinizing economic data to determine whether growth is robust enough for the Federal Open Market Committee to pare back its monthly bond buying following its Sept. 17-18 meeting.

A report today showed jobless claims in the U.S. declined last week to the lowest level since April 2006 as upgrades to computer systems in two states caused those employment agencies to report fewer applications.

“We’re going to ignore the report given the Labor Day holiday and this computer problem which calls into question the efficacy of the data,” said Phil Orlando, New York-based chief equity strategist at Federated Investors, which manages about $380 billion in assets.

Economists estimate the Fed this month will taper its stimulus by $10 billion a month, to $75 billion, according to the median of 34 responses in a Bloomberg News survey. The purchases have helped the S&P 500 rally as much as 153 percent since the beginning of the bull market in March 2009.

Speculation about reductions has whipsawed stocks since May, when Fed officials first indicated cuts could start this year. The S&P 500 tumbled 5.8 percent from a record on May 21 through June 24. It rebounded 8.7 percent to close at its latest all-time high of 1,709.67 on Aug. 2. The gauge then slumped as much as 4.6 percent before the seven-day rally through yesterday brought it back to within 1.2 percent of the record and above the May 21 peak.

“The Fed has a golden opportunity next week to really provide the market needed visibility on the taper program,” Jim Russell, the senior equity strategist for U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said in an interview from Cincinnati. His firm oversees $112 billion. “Next week is going to be crucial for the markets.”

The CBOE Volatility Index, the gauge of S&P 500 options prices known as the VIX, rose 3.4 percent to 14.29. The equity volatility gauge has tumbled 16 percent in September after rallying 26 percent in August, the biggest monthly gain since May 2012. The index moves in the opposite direction to the S&P 500 about 80 percent of the time.

Gauges of materials producers and financial companies fell the most among the 10 main industry groups in the S&P 500 today.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. slid 1.9 percent to $52.24 for the worst performance in the Dow. The bank may settle regulators’ probes into the bank’s credit-card debt collection practices and sales of identity-theft products as early as next week, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

Silver dropped the most in nine weeks and gold touched a four-week low as a report showed euro-area industrial output contracted more than analysts estimated in July. Copper declined to a one-month low.

Barrick Gold, the largest miner of the metal, slipped 5.5 percent to $17.61 as gold futures for December delivery dropped 2.4 percent for the biggest drop for a most-active contract since July 5. Newmont decreased 4.2 percent to $28.23.

Cliffs Natural Resources Inc., the largest U.S. iron-ore producer, slumped 5.2 percent to $22.42 for the biggest drop in the benchmark index for American equities.

Lululemon retreated 5.4 percent to $65.29. The yogawear retailer searching for a new chief executive officer cut its profit forecast as new rivals enter its market and shoppers cut spending on clothing. Earnings per share will be as much as $1.97, down from a previous projection of a maximum of $2.01, the Vancouver-based company said. The average of 29 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg was $1.99.

Disney jumped 2.4 percent to $65.49, the most in the Dow.

The world’s biggest entertainment company plans to start the repurchase plan next year. The company will borrow to finance some of the buys, Chief Financial Officer Jay Rasulo said.

Pandora Media surged 12 percent to $23.97, the highest close since the stock began trading in June 2011. The biggest online radio service hired McAndrews in a push to lift revenue while fending off competition from Apple Inc. The executive was also named chairman and president, succeeding Joe Kennedy.

Phone stocks were the only group among 10 in the S&P 500 to advance, rallying 1 percent. AT&T Inc. jumped 1.2 percent to $34.38 and Verizon Communications Inc. rose 1.8 percent to $47.35 to pace gains among Dow companies.

Verizon produced a profit for investors of about $2.09 billion for agreeing to buy the record $49 billion of bonds it sold yesterday as the price of the securities surged. The debt sale topped Apple Inc.’s $17 billion offering in April and will help pay for the company’s planned $130 billion purchase of Vodafone Group Plc’s stake in Verizon Wireless.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc., a developer of small-molecule pharmaceuticals, rose 2 percent to $81.40, and Ametek Inc., a manufacturer of electronic instruments, added 2.6 percent to $45.57. S&P Dow Jones Indices said the two companies will join the S&P 500, replacing Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and SAIC Inc. AMD dropped 1.8 percent to $3.75 and SAIC added 1.3 percent to $14.96.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said stocks will continue to rally as the bull market in equities moves into a new phase driven by earnings growth rather than expanding valuations.

Equities will produce more moderate returns with lower volatility in the second phase of the bull market, according to Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman’s chief global equity strategist, who reiterated his bullish stance on stocks. Oppenheimer said in a March 2012 report that the prospects for returns from equities versus bonds “are as good as they have been in a generation.”

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

If you are in the moment, you are in the infinite.

-Swami Prajnanpad, 1891-1974

 

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

If anything is sacred the human body is sacred.

-Walt Whitman, 1819-1892


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

September 10, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

-from A Countrywoman’s Notes for the month of September, by Rosemary Verey:

Rosebay willow is beautiful in the wild but a menace in the garden.  Each September, its appearance reminds me of one day when I was seven.  A friend and I had been allowed to roam alone on the dunes behind Walmer Castle in Kent.  This wonderful willowherb was growing in profusion as tall as we were; we picked armfuls, some in flower and some with ripening seeds, and as we walked home through the garden, each with a cherished bouquet, we met the gardener.  At the time I could not understand his dismay as hundreds of seeds went wafting into his weedless borders.  Now when I see its deceptively pretty pink flowers appearing in my borders I remember that carefree day and pull it out, roots and all.  Autumn is the time to harvest sees of our special flowers; plants such as Nicotiana sylvestris to my mind the sweetest-scented of the tobacco family, and the nasty-smelling Salvia sclaria var. turkestanica, whose mauve bracts last for weeks and always cause comments of approval; all those which are hard to find in the seedsmen’s catalogues.  We should follow Thomas Tusser’s 16th century advice…

Good huswifes in summer will  save their own seedes,

Against the next years, as occasion needs.

One seed for another, to make an exchange,

With fellowlie neighbourhood seemeth not strange.

Photos of the Day –September 10th, 2013

A black cat strolls over a pile of pumpkins at a farm near Potsdam, eastern Germany. Ralf Hirschberger/dpa/AP

A giant panda with rare brown-and-white fur eats a carrot at a natural conservation area in Qinling, Shaanxi province, China. China Daily/Reuters

Market Closes for September 10th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

15191.06 +127.94 

 

+0.85%

S&P 500 1683.99 +12.28 

 

+0.73%

NASDAQ 3729.022 +22.838 

 

+0.62%

TSX 12824.48 -30.16

 

-0.23%

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14423.36 +218.13

 

+1.54%

 

HANG 

SENG

22976.65 +226.00

 

+0.99%

 

SENSEX 19997.10 +727.04

 

+3.77%

 

FTSE 100 6583.99 +53.25

 

+0.82%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.817 2.747
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.283 3.221
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.9662 2.9120
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.8960 3.8530

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.96624 0.96385

 

US  

$

1.03494 1.03751
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.37309 0.72829
US 

$

1.32673 0.75373

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1363.44 1386.00
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 107.39 109.52
BRENT 109.360 109.360

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Nick Taborek

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell, after touching the highest level in almost six months yesterday, as materials producers slumped amid signs of easing tensions over Syria.

Argonaut Gold Inc. sank 8 percent as the price of the precious metal plunged the most in two months in New York.

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. sank 7.3 percent to pace losses among silver producers. BlackBerry Ltd. dropped 5.5 percent after the Globe & Mail reported big pension funds have “cooled” on a joining a possible bid for the company.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 30.16 points, or 0.2 percent, to 12,824.48 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge rose 0.3 percent yesterday to the highest since March 12. Trading was 8.4 percent above the 30-day average.

“The Syrian situation seems to be at the moment working its way out with possibly a negotiated settlement,” said Paul Gardner, a fund manager with Avenue Investment Management in Toronto. The firm oversees about C$300 million ($288 million).

“You have a stock market rally in the U.S. In Canada the opposite occurs because we’re so heavily weighted towards gold, resources and oil, and that of course has come off due to the crisis settling down.”

U.S. stocks advanced today after France said it will submit a Russian-backed plan to confiscate Syria’s chemical weapons to the United Nations, as Interfax reported that Bashar al-Assad’s government accepted the proposal. U.S. President Barack Obama will outline his intentions on Syria in a speech at 9 p.m. tonight in Washington.

In Canada, five of 10 main groups in the S&P/TSX declined.

Materials stocks plunged 1.9 percent, the most in two weeks. An index of gold producers slumped 5.2 percent for the biggest decline in a month as gold futures tumbled 1.6 percent to settle at $1,364. Silver also retreated.

Goldcorp Inc. fell 6.7 percent to C$28.16 and Torex Gold Resources Inc. slumped 7.6 percent to C$1.45 to pace declines among producers of the precious metal. Argonaut dropped 8 percent to C$6.20. Fortuna Silver dropped 7.3 percent to C$4.09.

BlackBerry lost 5.5 percent to C$11.30, dragging technology stocks lower by 1 percent. The shares climbed 5.9 percent yesterday after a Sunday Times report said Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. is close to making a bid. A separate report today in the Globe & Mail, citing people familiar with the situation, said none of the big Canadian pension funds approached by Fairfax Financial have taken to the proposal.

BlackBerry said today it has cut its sales force and moved some staff to the U.S. to bolster sluggish sales of its new devices. The company is struggling with competition from Apple Inc.’s iOS, Google Inc.’s Android and Microsoft Corp.’s Windows Phone, which is now outselling BlackBerry. Apple introduced two new versions of its iPhone today, including a low-cost model.

Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. advanced 3.4 percent to $34.02. OAO Uralkali, the Russian potash producer that exited a venture controlling almost half of global exports of the crop nutrient in July, said prices are unlikely to fall below $300 a metric ton as Asian and Brazilian demand will support sales.

US

By Nikolaj Gammeltoft

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks climbed, extending the longest winning streak for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since July, as data showed China’s economy is improving amid signs of easing tensions over Syria.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Visa Inc. and Nike Inc. jumped more than 2.1 percent as the three companies will be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Bank of America Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co. and Alcoa Inc. Apple Inc. tumbled 2.3 percent as the world’s biggest technology company unveiled new iPhone models.

The S&P 500 advanced 0.7 percent to 1,683.99 at 4 p.m. in New York. The index has gained for six straight days, the most since July 15. The Dow rose 127.94 points, or 0.9 percent, to 15,191.06 today. About 6.6 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 11 percent above the three-month average.

“The news from Syria is positive and we had decent economic data out of China,” Gary Flam, a portfolio manager at Bel Air Investment Advisors LLC in Los Angeles, said in a phone interview. His firm oversees $7 billion. “Investors came into September cautiously positioned, but one by one their concerns are being removed or lessened.”

The S&P 500 has risen 3.1 percent in the first six trading days of the month, recovering from a drop of as much as 4.6 percent since a record high on Aug. 2. The benchmark index declined amid concern over a possible military strike against Syria and the prospect for the Federal Reserve scaling back its monetary stimulus.

President Barack Obama asked Democratic senators to delay a vote on authorizing military strikes to allow time for talks on eliminating Syria’s chemical weapons, lawmakers said today.

France said it will submit a Russian-backed plan to confiscate Syria’s chemical weapons to the United Nations, as Interfax reported that Bashar al-Assad’s government accepted the proposal. Obama is scheduled to outline his intentions on Syria in a speech at 9 p.m. tonight in Washington.

Stocks rose earlier after China’s industrial output rose 10.4 percent in August from a year earlier and the nation’s retail sales gained 13.4 percent. Both results exceeded economists’ estimates. Equities climbed yesterday as China’s exports topped forecasts.

The Fed is watching economic data ahead of its Sept. 17-18 meeting as it considers reducing its monthly $85 billion in asset buying. The S&P 500 has rallied as much as 153 percent since the beginning of the bull market in March 2009 as the central bank continued to provide stimulus to the economy.

Economists estimate the Fed this month will taper its monthly bond buying by $10 billion, to $75 billion, according to the median of 34 responses in a Bloomberg News survey.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, dropped 7 percent to 14.53. The equity volatility gauge is down 15 percent in September after rallying 26 percent in August, the biggest monthly gain since May 2012.

The Dow Jones Transportation Index jumped 1.9 percent to the highest level in a month. Shares in companies whose earnings are most closely tied to economic growth rose, sending the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index up 1.7 percent to the highest level since the gauge started in 1978. Industrial and financial shares rallied the most among 10 groups in the S&P 500, adding at least 1.1 percent.

Microsoft Corp. climbed 2.3 percent to $32.39 for the biggest gain in the Dow. General Electric Co. advanced 2.1 percent to $23.87, while United Technologies Corp., the maker of Pratt & Whitney jet engines and Sikorsky helicopters, increased 1.7 percent to $106.26.

Goldman Sachs climbed 3.5 percent to $165.14. Nike jumped 2.2 percent to $66.82 and Visa increased 3.4 percent to $184.59.

Hewlett-Packard lost 0.4 percent to $22.27. Alcoa slipped 0.3 percent to $8.06. Bank of America added 0.9 percent to $14.61.

The changes to the Dow will be the biggest reshuffling since April 2004. It will boost the influence of banking and computer companies in the 30-member gauge as the fifth-biggest U.S. bank by assets and the largest payment network join seven other financial and technology firms, such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Cisco Systems Inc. Bank of America exits even after rising 109 percent in 2012, the Dow’s largest gain. The changes will take effect after the close on Sept. 20.

McDonald’s Corp. climbed 0.5 percent to $96.89. The world’s largest restaurant chain said same-store sales increased 1.9 percent last month, helped by demand in Europe. Analysts projected a 0.3 percent increase, the average of 16 estimates from Consensus Metrix. McDonald’s said it benefited from demand in France and Russia as well as the introduction of blended-ice beverages in the U.K.

E*Trade Financial Corp. soared 3.6 percent to $17.10, the highest level since February 2011. The online brokerage said its daily average revenue-generating trades rose 5 percent in August compared to the previous month and the stock was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie Group Ltd.

Apple tumbled 2.3 percent to $494.64. The company unveiled a cheaper $99 version of the iPhone in bright colors and an updated high-end device, in a strategy shift by Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook to reach a broader range of customers around the world as competing devices running Google Inc.’s Android software gain in popularity.

“The competition has caught up and it’s now purely about how quickly it can innovate and drive its own experience forward,” said Benedict Evans, an analyst with Enders Analysis in London.

Apple also said it was adding Japan’s largest carrier, NTT DoCoMo Inc., and that it would have devices available upon introduction in China for the first time. The company is near a deal with China Mobile Ltd., the world’s largest carrier, people familiar with the plans have said.

Urban Outfitters Inc. fell the most in the S&P 500, losing 10 percent to $38.35. The teen-clothing retailer said third- quarter comparable sales so far are growing at a mid-single- digit pace. Janney Montgomery Scott LLC last week estimated the company would report that the sales were running at a “high- single digit” rate.

 

Have  a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

Contemplation is seeing the here and now.

-Swami Prajnanpad, 1891-1974


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

A man’s homeland is wherever he prospers.

-Aristophanes, 446 BC-386 BC


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

September 6, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Désirée Goyette wrote a piece today  in one of the daily newspapers I receive which I thought was very beautiful.  Here is an excerpt:

“When I was a little girl, I loved watching my parents drop all their workaday cares to dance across the kitchen floor to the sound of Glenn Miller’s classic “A String of Pearls,” composed by Jerry Gray. There was just something “perfect” about that recording, with a title that had to do with every note being in place and shining like a pearl in a necklace…. I’ve yearned for a way to distill the wisdom I’ve been exposed to into something as flawless as that pearl. One gem of wisdom is the idea of being present “in the moment” – accepting that our future prospects so often relate to paying attention to the present.  With my busy schedule as a wife, mother, and musician, it often seems as though my mind is much too busy living in “fast forward” even to catch a glimpse of the present.  One particularly stressful morning I realized…. Moment-by-moment communion….allows us to abandon will-based responsibility and enjoy every moment to the fullest, enriched by priceless pearls of insight and contentment.

Photos of the Day –September 6th, 2013

A girl plays in front of the skyline of New York’s Lower Manhattan and One World Trade Center in a park along the Hudson River in Hoboken, New Jersey, September 5th. New York will mark the 12th anniversary of the 9/11 attack on the World Trade center next week. Gary Hershorn/Reuters

A Komondor, a traditional Hungarian guard dog, shakes its long fur in Bodony, Hunagry, September 3rd. Komondors, have a fur coat that weighs 60 pounds. Photo released September 6th. Laszlo Balogh /Reuters

Market Closes for September 6th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

14922.50 -14.98 

 

-0.10%

S&P 500 1655.17 +0.09 

 

+0.01%

NASDAQ 3660.010 +1.225 

 

+0.03%

TSX 12820.92 -24.14 

 

-0.19% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 13860.81 -204.01 

 

-1.45% 

 

HANG 

SENG

22621.22 +23.25 

 

+0.10% 

 

SENSEX 19270.06 +290.30 

 

+1.53% 

 

FTSE 100 6547.33 +14.89 

 

+0.23% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.771 2.804
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.241 3.258
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.9342 2.9937
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.8657 3.8849

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.96002 0.95217 

 

US  

$

1.04165 1.05023
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.37273 0.72848
US 

$

1.31784 0.75882

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1391.90 1367.30
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 110.53 108.37
BRENT 109.360 109.360 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell, after reaching a five-month high, as technology companies dropped and investors weighed reports on domestic and U.S. jobs growth amid growing tensions between America and Russia over Syria.

BlackBerry Ltd. dropped 2.7 percent, snapping three days of gains. Bombardier Inc. lost 1 percent after rallying the most in four months yesterday. Torex Gold Resources Inc. and B2Gold Corp. added at least 4.8 percent as the price of gold climbed.

Air Canada, the nation’s largest airline, jumped 3.1 percent after announcing it will refinance its long-term debt at a lower cost. Suncor Energy Inc. rose 1.2 percent as crude rallied to a two-year high.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 24.14 points, or 0.2 percent, to 12,820.92 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, paring the weekly gain to 1.3 percent. The S&P/TSX closed at its highest level since March 12 yesterday.

“We’re seeing a bit of technical selling after the TSX reached a short-term high yesterday and has had a pretty good run the past few weeks,” said Youssef Zohny, a portfolio manager with Stenner Investment Partners of Richardson GMP Ltd. in Vancouver. Richardson GMP manages about C$15 billion ($14.4 billion).

Data showed Canadian employment increased by 59,200 last month and the jobless rate fell to 7.1 percent from 7.2 percent.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected a 20,000 job increase and an unchanged jobless rate.

“Given the improved tone in the global economy, Canada is poised to enter a period of higher-than-potential growth resulting in more consistent gains in hiring and a gradual decline in the unemployment rate,” Dawn Desjardins, assistant chief economist at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note to clients today.

In the U.S., employers added 169,000 workers in August, following a revised 104,000 rise in July that was smaller than first reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had called for a 180,000 gain. Unemployment fell to 7.3 percent from 7.4 percent. The data fueled speculation that any reduction in Federal Reserve stimulus will be limited.

“People were feeling pretty good about things going in with the jobs data, but with a print like this, maybe the U.S. economy isn’t ready for tapering,” said Michael O’Brien, fund manager with TD Asset Management Inc. in Toronto. The firm manages about C$216 billion ($207 billion).

Technology stocks declined 1.1 percent as eight of 10 groups in the S&P/TSX retreated. Trading volume was 14 percent below the 30-day average.

BlackBerry dropped 2.7 percent to C$11.29. The smartphone maker had risen 9 percent in the past three days amid speculation BlackBerry may sell itself as soon as November.

Niko Resources Ltd. slumped 10 percent to C$3.68 after Darren Engels, an analyst with FirstEnergy Capital, lowered his rating to underperform from market perform and cut his price target to C$3 from C$8.50 after accounting for the company’s financing needs and potential capital spending.

Suncor gained 1.2 percent to C$36.68 and Bankers Petroleum Ltd. advanced 3 percent to C$3.80 as crude gained 2 percent to $110.53 a barrel in New York, the highest since May 2011.

Bombardier lost 1.4 percent to C$4.91. The stock rallied 5.5 percent yesterday, the most since May 9, after announcing the sale of one of its units along with a jet order worth a minimum of $1.8 billion.

B2Gold added 4.8 percent to C$2.85 and Torex Gold jumped 8.1 percent to C$1.61. Gold rebounded from a two-week low, rising 1 percent to $1,386.50 an ounce in New York.

Air Canada increased 3.1 percent to C$3.03. The airliner plans to refinance about C$1.1 billion of its outstanding senior notes to extend the maturity of Air Canada’s long-term debt and lower costs of financing.

US

By Lu Wang and Nick Taborek

Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s Index erased almost all its gains as an escalation in tension over Syria overshadowed slower-than-forecast jobs growth that eased concern about reductions in Federal Reserve stimulus.

Airlines slipped 0.9 percent as a group as crude oil rose to a two-year high. Mattress Firm Holding Corp. dropped 15 percent after cutting its forecast. American Tower Corp. climbed 4.6 percent after agreeing to acquire the parent company of rival Global Tower Partners for about $3.3 Billion. Lennar Corp. and D.R. Horton Inc. jumped at least 1.9 percent to pace gains among homebuilders as bond yields plunged.

The S&P 500 rose less than 1 point to 1,655.17 at 4 p.m. in New York. The gauge swung 1.5 percentage points during the session, the widest since June 24. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 14.98 points, or 0.1 percent, to 14,922.50, snapping a three-day winning streak. About 5.9 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, in line with the three-month average.

“It’s a very skittish stock market,” John Augustine, who helps manage $27 billion as chief market strategist at Cincinnati-based Fifth Third Bancorp, said in a phone interview.

“We’re in a period where markets will react quickly to external news from a variety of sources, whether it’s the bond market, the Middle East, or one single economic report.”

The S&P 500 erased gains of as much as 0.6 percent in the final hour of trading after a report from Al-Arabiya, citing unidentified activists, said forces for the regime of Bashar al- Assad shelled Damascus with gas.

The report stoked concern that the U.S. could take military action in Syria even as President Barack Obama acknowledged domestic and international resistance to his call for a strike.

One of the biggest hurdles to Obama’s efforts has been put up by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Equities started the day higher before falling as much as 0.9 percent to the lowest level of the day after Putin said at the Group of 20 summit that his country will assist Syria if strikes are launched. Putin is Assad’s most powerful ally.

The S&P 500 recovered the losses by 11 a.m., turning higher as investors turned back to a Labor Department jobs report that eased concern about the size of potential Fed stimulus cuts.

Employers added 169,000 workers last month, missing the median forecast of 180,000 in a Bloomberg survey of 96 economists. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.3 percent as more people left the labor force.

Central-bank stimulus has helped drive a global equity rally, with the S&P 500 rising as much as 153 percent from its bear-market low in 2009. The U.S. gauge fell as much as 4.6 percent from an Aug. 2 record as speculation grew that the Fed would begin winding down its monetary support after its next meeting on Sept. 17-18.

Today’s report on weaker jobs growth hasn’t derailed economists’ expectations that the Fed this month will taper its monthly bond buying by $10 billion, to $75 billion, according to the median of 34 responses today in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. That was unchanged from an Aug. 9-13 poll, as was a projection that the program will end in June.

“What the jobs report told us is that it’s a slow recovery, but it’s a recovery, so that while the Fed is likely to taper in September, it won’t be surprising to see a tiny taper as the Fed tries to wean the market off quantitative easing,” Kristina Hooper, a U.S. investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors in New York, said in a phone interview.

Her firm oversees $409 billion. “It could be an almost Goldilocks scenario where you have just enough tapering to satisfy the hawkish sentiment but too little to impact stock.”

Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans, a voter on policy this year, said today the central bank shouldn’t taper until inflation and economic growth pick up. Esther George, the Fed Bank of Kansas City president who has consistently dissented against additional stimulus, called for tapering at this month’s meeting while cautioning that such reductions may prompt market volatility.

The S&P 500 capped a 1.4 percent advance over the holiday- shortened week for the biggest weekly increase since July 12.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, gained 0.5 percent to 15.85, snapping a three-day advance.

The equity volatility gauge is down 12 percent this year.

Half of 10 main S&P 500 groups fell as consumer- discretionary and raw-materials companies each slipped 0.2 percent. Utility shares rose 0.6 percent for the best performance.

The Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index dropped 0.9 percent amid concern rising oil prices will boost fuel costs. Delta Air Lines Inc. lost 1.8 percent to $19.89 while US Airways Group Inc. declined 1.1 percent to $16.80.

Mattress Firm tumbled 15 percent to $35.59. The mattress retailer cut its profit forecast as same-store sales fell in the second quarter.

Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. fell 10 percent to $10.31. The handgun manufacturer forecast earnings to be no more than 22 cents a share in the fiscal second quarter. That trailed the average analyst estimate of 29 cents in a Bloomberg survey.

Real-estate shares jumped 2.1 percent for the best performance among 24 industries in the S&P 500. American Tower rallied 4.6 percent to $71.91. The biggest operator of cellular towers in the U.S. agreed to acquire MIP Tower Holdings LLC, giving it thousands of additional wireless sites as appetite for next-generation services grows.

An S&P index of homebuilders rebounded from a 12-month low, rising 2 percent, as a drop in bond yields eased concern that surging borrowing costs will hurt a housing recovery. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell the most in 10 months.

Lennar advanced 2.3 percent to $32.25. D.R. Horton climbed 1.9 percent to $18.10.

Facebook Inc. climbed 3 percent to a record $43.95. The owner of the world’s largest social-networking service had its share-price estimate boosted to $55 from $40 at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Inc. E*Trade Financial Corp. climbed 4.6 percent to $16.26.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its recommendation on the online brokerage to buy from neutral.

Timken Co. rose 2.1 percent to an all-time high of $61.52.

The maker of ball bearings agreed to spin off its steel unit, dropping opposition to a plan pushed by Ralph Whitworth’s Relational Investors LLC after a shareholder vote and a Goldman Sachs Group Inc.-led review favored the split.

VeriFone Systems Inc. jumped 10 percent to $22.81, the highest since June 4. The maker of credit-card terminals forecast fourth-quarter sales of at least $418 million, topping the average analyst estimate of $412.9 million.

 

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

It is only when we give complete attention to a problem,

and solve it immediately – never carrying it over to the next day,

the next minute – that there is solitude.

To have inward solitude and space is very important

because it implies freedom to be, to go, to function, to fly.

Krishnamurti, 1895-1986


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

True heroism is remarkably sober, very undramatic.  It is not the urge

to surpass others at all cost, but the urge to serve others at

whatever cost.

-Arthur Ashe, 1943-1993


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

September 5, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day, September 5th, 1882, the first Labour Day Parade took place in Manhattan.

And also on this day in…

1957,Jack Kerouac published On the Road, the defining work of the 1950’s Beat Generation.

1958, Russian writer Boris Pasternak’s epic Doctor Zhivago, is published in the US.

1997, Nobel Peace Prize winner Mother Theresa died.

2007, Apple, under the leadership of Steve Jobs, launched the iTouch, a device combining features from the iPhone and iPod.

Photos of the Day –September 5rd, 2013

A visitor takes a picture in front of the installation ‘Collosseo’ by Russian artist Victor Sachivko on the first day of the 10th International Museum Biennale “The Love of Space” at the Museum Center in the Russian Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, September 4th. Modern artists from around the world participated in this biennale – one of largest and oldest modern arts project in Russia. lya Naymushin/Reuters

A giant 3D-presentation is seen through 3D glasses at the LG Electronics booth at IFA, one of the world’s largest trade fairs for consumer electronics and electrical home appliances, in Berlin, Germany. Gero Breloer/AP

A British common white butterfly rests on a flower in St James Park in London. Temperatures in the capital rose unusually high for the time of year to 28 Celcius (82 Fahrenheit) Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP

Market Closes for September 5th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

14937.48 +6.61 

 

+0.04%

S&P 500 1655.08 +2.00 

 

+0.12%

NASDAQ 3658.785 +9.743 

 

+0.27%

TSX 12845.06 +87.25

 

+0.68%

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14064.82 +10.95

 

+0.08%

 

HANG 

SENG

22597.97 +271.75

 

+1.22%

 

SENSEX 18979.76 +412.21

 

+2.22%

 

FTSE 100 6532.44 +57.70

 

+0.89%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.804 2.720
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.258 3.182
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.9937 2.8966
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.8849 3.7970

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.95217 0.95266

 

US  

$

1.05023 1.04969
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.37773 0.72583
US 

$

1.31184 0.76229

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1367.30 1393.17
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 108.37 107.23
BRENT 109.360 109.360

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Nick Taborek and Eric Lam

Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose, sending the benchmark index to the highest level since March, as forestry and technology shares soared amid optimism over acquisitions while oil companies climbed as a U.S. panel approved military strikes on Syria.

Ainsworth Lumber surged 33 percent after agreeing to sell itself to Louisiana-Pacific Corp. BlackBerry Ltd. gained 2.8 percent on a report the mobile phone maker aims to find a buyer by November. Celestica Inc. rose 1.6 percent after its solar lab unit received approval to provide product testing.  Talisman Energy Inc. gained 4.4 percent as oil futures rose. Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank rallied at least 1.5 percent as financial stocks reached a five-year high.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 87.25 points, or 0.7 percent, to 12,845.06 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, the highest close since March 12. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge is up 3.3 percent this year.

“After yesterday’s vote the odds of a military attack rose, therefore that’s why you’re seeing energy prices supported,” said Andrew Pyle, fund manager with ScotiaMcLeod Inc. in Peterborough, Ontario. He manages about C$210 million ($200 million). “The latest U.S. data is also giving the market a lift in economic confidence, which had been waning after the last couple of weeks in the summer.”

Talisman Energy climbed 4.4 percent to C$11.71 and Crew Energy Inc. added 3.6 percent to C$6.11. Oil prices climbed from the lowest price in more than a week after a U.S. Senate panel yesterday voted to authorize President Barack Obama to conduct a limited U.S. military operation against Syria.

Data today indicated fewer Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index increased to 58.6, the fastest pace since at least January 2008, from 56 the prior month.

Technology stocks advanced 1.8 percent as a group, as eight of 10 industries in the S&P/TSX gained. Trading volume was 2.9 percent above the 30-day average at this time of the day.

BlackBerry, based in Waterloo, Ontario, added 2.8 percent to C$11.60 for a third day of gains. The smartphone maker held talks with potential bidders and whittled down its target list, Dow Jones said in a report yesterday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Celestica rose 1.6 percent to C$11.66, its highest close since March 2011, after announcing test provider TÜV Rheinland Ptl has audited and approved Celestica’s solar lab in Toronto to provide testing for certification of solar modules.

Toronto-Dominion Bank surged 1.5 percent to C$91.65, a record high, and Royal Bank added 1.7 percent to C$66.56 as the S&P/TSX Financials Index reached the highest close since December 2007.

Ainsworth Lumber, which produces oriented strand board used in housing construction, jumped 33 percent to C$3.92 after agreeing to a C$906 million ($863 million) sale to Louisiana- Pacific.

Norbord Inc., a competing wood producer, rose 10 percent to C$29.98 and Western Forest Products Inc. advanced 7.2 percent to C$1.49.

Bombardier Inc. jumped 5.5 percent to C$4.98, the biggest gain since May, after the company agreed to sell its Flexjet aircraft flight-share unit to a new company funded by a group led by Directional Aviation Capital. The group will order 85 business jets worth a minimum of $1.8 billion from Bombardier, with options for 160 more jets that would push the total value to $5.2 billion, Bombardier said.

Global:

By Richard Frost and Stephen Kirkland

Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) — Treasuries fell, with 10-year yields reaching a two-year high, while stocks rose as data on service industries and jobs added to signs the economy is gaining momentum. The euro slid as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said rates will remain low.

U.S. 10-year note yields jumped nine basis points to 2.99 percent at 4 p.m. in New York, reaching the highest since July 2011. German 10-year yields rose to the highest in 17 months, climbing above 2 percent, and rates on U.K. gilts of similar maturity topped 3 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.1 percent and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.7 percent. The euro weakened 0.7 percent to $1.3119. Oil advanced after a Senate committee approved military strikes on Syria and U.S. inventories dropped in Cushing, Oklahoma.

A private report said U.S. service industries expanded at the fastest pace in eight years, while Labor Department data showed the number of workers claiming jobless benefits slid more than economists predicted. The reports come before the monthly payrolls data tomorrow and the Fed’s next meeting from Sept.

17-18. Draghi said the ECB’s monetary policy will remain accommodative for “as long as necessary” and the economy was too weak to exclude rate-cut discussions after the ECB, Bank of England and Sweden’s Riksbank kept key rates unchanged today.

“We’ve had a strong move to the upside” in yields, said Karsten Linowsky, a fixed-income strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Zurich. “Everyone is waiting for these events, like the payrolls and the Fed meeting and that’s why we’ve seen pressure to the upside in yields.”

Five-year Treasury yields increased 10 basis points to 1.84 percent, the highest since May 2011, and 30-year rates added eight basis points to 3.88 percent.

Germany’s 10-year bund yield rose 10 basis points to 2.04 percent, the highest level since March 2012. The rate on French 10-year bonds increased 10 basis points to 2.63 percent as France’s borrowing at an auction today rose to the most since President Francois Hollande was elected. The government sold 4.24 billion euros ($5.59 billion) of 2023 debt at an average yield of 2.57 percent.

The 10-year U.K. gilt yield rose 13 basis points to 3.01 percent, the highest since July 2011, after Britain kept rates on hold and refrained from adding to its stimulus program.

Sweden’s 10-year bond yield jumped 15 basis points to a two-year high of 2.74 percent and the krona dropped versus all 16 of its major peers after Sweden’s central bank stuck to a plan to start raising borrowing costs late next year.

Austrian, Finnish, and Dutch 10-year yields also reached the highest in more than a year.

U.S. benchmark stock indexes rose for a third day, the longest rally since July. Louisiana-Pacific Corp. surged 11 percent after agreeing to buy Ainsworth Lumber Co. Costco Wholesale Corp. gained 2.8 percent as August sales beat analysts’ estimates. Groupon Inc. climbed 3.6 percent after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock. Homebuilders and companies paying the highest dividends fell as Treasury yields surged.

Jobless claims declined by 9,000 to 323,000 in the week ended Aug. 31, less than the lowest estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Another report showed companies boosted employment by 176,000 workers in August, according to the ADP Research Institute.

Nonfarm payrolls data on Sept. 6 will probably indicate an increase of 180,000 in August, compared with a gain of 162,000 for July, according to a separate Bloomberg survey. The U.S. economy maintained a “modest to moderate” pace of growth from July to August, the Fed said yesterday in its Beige Book survey.

“U.S. payrolls is the key event,” Chris Green, a strategist at First NZ Capital Ltd., a brokerage and wealth- management firm, said from Auckland. “We’re looking at something around 190,000 and if we get that sort of number it reinforces the idea of Fed tapering occurring at the upcoming meeting.”

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index rose to 58.6 in August from 56 the prior month, topping the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey for a drop to 55. A reading greater than 50 indicates expansion in the industries that make up almost 90 percent of the economy.

Another report showed orders placed with U.S. factories fell less than forecast in July as rising fuel prices propelled the biggest gain in non-durable goods in a year.

A gauge of carmakers posted the biggest gain of 19 industry groups in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index as PSA Peugeot Citroen advanced 5.4 percent. Chief Executive Officer Philippe Varin forecast that the company’s market share will increase in the third quarter, according to an interview in Le Parisien newspaper.

Telecom Italia SpA jumped 8.4 percent after La Repubblica reported that Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris may buy a stake in the phone company. The newspaper did not cite anyone.

TeliaSonera AB slid 1.9 percent after Solidium Oy, Finland’s state-owned asset manager, started an accelerated book build to sell a stake in the Swedish telecommunications operator.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 1 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong climbed 1 percent and benchmark gauges in Russia, South Korea, Taiwan and the Czech Republic gained at least 1 percent.

India’s Sensex index climbed for a second day, jumping 2.2 percent. Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan announced plans to make it easier for banks to open branches and lend to non-state sectors.

“This should give incentive for banks to offer U.S. dollar deposits to offshore investors,” Albert Leung, a strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, wrote today in a report. It “should bring in close to $10 billion of foreign exchange and stabilize the Indian rupee at around current levels,” he said.

Poland’s WIG20 Index fell 4.6 percent, the most since June.

Poland said yesterday it will take over and cancel government bonds held by its privately managed pension funds. Morgan Stanley said today the changes are negative for stocks and will likely reduce inflows into equity markets. The five-year yield climbed to an 11-month high of 4.24 percent today and the zloty fell 1.4 percent versus the dollar.

Turkey’s lira fell as much as 1.6 percent to a record 2.0841 per dollar. Turkey’s central bank indicated that it will drop its defense of the lira to focus on keeping interest rates unchanged, according to economists who attended a private meeting with policy makers in Ankara yesterday.

Shares in the Middle East fell, with the main indexes for Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Qatar sliding at least 1.6 percent. Dubai’s stocks posted the biggest swings in the world in the past month as concern the U.S. is moving closer to a military strike against Syria led investors to exit this year’s best-performing index.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted 10-7 in the first test of Congress’s willingness to back American military action against the Syrian regime. President Barack Obama is meeting world leaders at the Group of 20 summit in St. Petersburg today. The office of Russian President Vladimir Putin said there’ll no separate session on Syria at the summit.

West Texas Intermediate oil advanced 1.1 percent to $108.37 a barrel after a government report showed that inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the contract, dropped to the lowest level in a year and a half. The S&P GSCI gauge of 24 commodities climbed 0.2 percent as energy and industrial metals gained.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

There is no weapon more powerful in achieving the truth than acceptance of oneself.

Swami Prajnanpad, 1891-1974


As ever,

 

Carolann


Accomplishments will prove to be a journey,

not a destination.

-Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1890-1969


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

 

September 4, 2013 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, begins at sundown tonight and ends at sundown on Friday, September 6th.  Tradition is to eat apples dipped in honey for a sweet new year.

On this day, September 4th, 1888, George Eastman registered his trademark Kodak and received a patent for his roll-film camera.

If you like old photos, you can find a wonderful photo album of time gone by at the Shorpy blog site (named after Shorpy Higginbotham, a 20th-century teenage coal miner).  Check out www.shorpy.com

September tries its best to have us forget summer. –Bern Williams

Photos of the Day –September 4th, 2013

A woman stops to photograph the skyline of New York across from the Empire State Building as she walks in a park along the Hudson River in Hoboken, New Jersey, yesterday evening. Gary Hershorn/Reuters

The sun rises behind the sheer rock faces at the mouth of Eldorado Canyon State Park, a place for technical rock climbers and also a popular retreat for local tourists, just outside Boulder, Colo. Brennan Linsley/AP

Market Closes for September 4th, 2013

Market 

Index

Close Change
Dow 

Jones

14930.87 +96.91 

 

+0.65%

S&P 500 1653.08 +13.31 

 

+0.81%

NASDAQ 3649.042 +36.430 

 

+1.01%

TSX 12757.81 +17.31 

 

+0.14% 

 

International Markets

Market 

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 14053.87 +75.43 

 

+0.54% 

 

HANG 

SENG

22326.22 -68.36 

 

-0.31% 

 

SENSEX 18567.55 +332.89 

 

+1.83% 

 

FTSE 100 6474.74 +6.33 

 

+0.10% 

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous % Yield
CND. 

10 Year Bond

2.720 2.680
CND.  

30 Year

Bond

3.182 3.150
U.S.  

10 Year Bond

2.8966 2.8576
U.S.  

30 Year Bond

3.7970 3.7943

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous
Canadian $ 0.95266 0.94912 

 

 

US  

$

1.04969 1.05361
Euro Rate 

1 Euro=

Inverse 

Canadian  

$

1.38569 0.72166
US 

$

1.32009 0.75753

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold  

Fix

1393.17 1404.45
Oil Close Previous 

 

WTI Crude Future 107.23 108.54
BRENT 109.360 109.359 

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks advanced as BlackBerry Ltd. rallied along with utilities and industrial companies, offsetting losses in commodity producers amid concern about a U.S. military strike on Syria.

BlackBerry jumped 4.9 percent after a report the mobile phone maker aims to find a buyer by November. Air Canada, the nation’s largest airline, climbed 2.5 percent for a fourth day of gains. Niko Resources Ltd. lost 9.5 percent as crude slipped for the third time in four days. Torex Gold Resources Inc. slid 5.6 percent and Silvercorp Metals Inc. sank 4.2 percent as the prices of both metals fell.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 17.31 points, or 0.1 percent, to 12,757.81 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge has risen 2.6 percent this year.

Trading volume was 2.1 percent lower than the 30-day average at this time of the day.

“The oil price and gold price are reflecting geopolitical risk,” said Jeffrey Burchell, a fund manager with Aston Hill Financial Inc., in a telephone interview from Toronto. His firm manages about C$8 billion ($7.6 billion). “People are getting settled in and trying to figure out what to do next.”

Gold and silver futures fell the most in eight weeks. Torex Gold sank 5.6 percent to C$1.53. Silvercorp Metals fell 4.2 percent to C$3.85.

The S&P/TSX Materials Index lost 0.1 percent as 35 of 55 members retreated. The group has plunged 24 percent this year, the worst performer among 10 industries in the S&P/TSX.

The international community’s credibility is on the line after Syria used chemical weapons against civilians, U.S. President Barack Obama said at a news conference today in Stockholm, repeating a claim the Syrian government has denied.

The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted to authorize a limited U.S. military operation in Syria, the first step toward congressional endorsement of the effort.

Torex Gold Resources Inc. slid 6.1 percent Silvercorp Metals Inc. sank 4.2 percent as the prices of both metals fell.

Canada’s trade deficit widened to C$931 million in July from C$460 million in June, Statistics Canada said. The gap exceeded the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Exports fell 0.6 percent to C$39.2 billion on a 7.3 percent drop in shipments of metal and non-mineral products.

“The hearty gain in energy exports that the street was expecting didn’t quite materialize,” Emanuella Enenajor, an economist with CIBC World Markets Inc., said in a note to clients today. “Overall a disappointing figure.”

The Bank of Canada today kept its main interest rate unchanged at 1 percent for the 24th meeting. Policy makers reiterated that current monetary policy remains appropriate as an expected rotation of demand to exports and investment is being delayed.

BlackBerry advanced 4.9 percent to C$11.28. The mobile device maker has held talks with bidders and plans to begin an auction process soon, Dow Jones said, citing people familiar with the situation.

Niko Resources declined 9.5 percent to C$4.29 and Bankers Petroleum Ltd. slipped 0.3 percent to C$3.60. Crude for October delivery lost 1.2 percent to $107.23 a barrel in New York.

Air Canada, the nation’s largest airline, rose 2.5 percent to C$2.89. The stock has jumped 8.7 percent in the past four sessions, the longest winning streak since June.

US

By Lu Wang and Alex Barinka

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, led by automakers and technology companies, as a Senate panel voted to authorize military action in Syria and the Federal Reserve said the economy maintained a “modest to moderate” pace of growth.

Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. rallied at least 3.5 percent after sales beat forecasts. Micron Technology Inc. and SanDisk Corp jumped more than 3.3 percent after a fire forced rival SK Hynix Inc. to suspend operations at a factory in China.

Apple Inc. gained 2.1 percent as Cantor Fitzgerald LP initiated coverage of the shares with a buy rating and amid speculation that the company may team up with China Mobile Ltd.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.8 percent to 1,653.08 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 96.91 points, or 0.7 percent, to 14,930.87. About 6.1 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, in line with the three-month average.

“Managers actually are fairly bullish on the environment,” Arvin Soh, a New York-based portfolio manager with GAM, said by phone. His firm has more than $120 billion under management. “The view has been, ‘yes we have some serious issues with Syria, but at the end of the day, growth is improving.’”

The S&P 500 briefly pared its gain after the Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted to authorize President Barack Obama to conduct a limited U.S. military operation in Syria, the first step toward congressional endorsement of the effort. Republican House Speaker John Boehner yesterday said he supports Obama’s call for military action. The full Senate is expected to consider the resolution on Sept. 9.

The Fed said today the economy continued to grow from early July through late August, even as borrowing costs increased. The central bank’s Beige Book survey of economic conditions in 12 Fed districts showed consumers spent more on travel and tourism, while manufacturing expanded “modestly.”

Fed officials have been scrutinizing data to determine the timing and pace of any reduction in its $85 billion in monthly bond buying. The central bank, which has said it may pare stimulus if the U.S. economy improves in line with its forecasts, will hold its next policy meeting on Sept. 17-18.

Figures from the Labor Department on Sept. 6 may show payrolls increased in August and the jobless rate held at 7.4 percent. A report from Automatic Data Processing Inc. tomorrow is expected to indicate that companies hired fewer workers than in July. A manufacturing gauge published yesterday reached a two-year high.

“The employment number is going to help drive the Fed,” Jim Landreth, a portfolio manager with 300 North Capital LLC in Pasadena, California, said by phone. His firm oversees $640 million. “The Fed is going to be careful. They don’t want rates to spike up again because housing has been one of the fundamental underpinnings of this recovery.”

The S&P 500 has lost 3.3 percent from a record on Aug. 2 amid speculation the Fed will scale back its bond buying.  The stimulus has helped push the benchmark equity gauge up 144 percent from its March 2009 low. There have been signs that the housing recovery has begun to slow, including a drop in sales of previously owned homes in July, as yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose to a two-year high last month.

Citigroup Inc. downgraded U.S. equities to underweight today, saying valuations are “not as attractive as other parts of the world.” The firm upgraded the U.K. and emerging markets.

These areas “appear the cheapest major regions across the world,” strategists including Robert Buckland and Tobias Levkovich wrote in a note.

Emerging markets have a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8 and the U.K. has a multiple of 13.3, the firm said. The benchmark gauge for U.S. equities trades at 15.9 times profit, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, slipped 4.4 percent to 15.88 today. The equity volatility gauge is down 12 percent this year.

All but two of 24 S&P 500 industry groups advanced.

Automakers surged 3 percent for the best performance, as U.S. car and light-truck sales rose 17 percent to 1.5 million units, the most since May 2007, according to researcher Autodata Corp.

That exceeded the average 14 percent gain estimated by 10 analysts in a survey by Bloomberg News.

Ford climbed 3.5 percent to $16.91 after posting a 12 percent increase. GM gained 5 percent to $35.85 as sales grew 15 percent.

Micron jumped 5.3 percent to $14.75 while SanDisk advanced 3.3 percent to $57.14. SK Hynix, the world’s second-largest maker of computer-memory chips, is ascertaining if there are any casualties and investigating the cause of the fire, which occurred at a plant in Wuxi, China.

Apple advanced 2.1 percent to $498.69. Cantor’s 12-month share-price estimate was $777, 59 percent higher than yesterday’s close of $488.58. The world’s biggest technology company announced a Sept. 10 event at which it will unveil new models of the iPhone. The next day, it will host an event in Beijing, spurring speculation that Apple may announce an agreement with China Mobile, according to Reuters.

Apple may sell more than 5 million iPhones to China Mobile in the December quarter, with the potential subscriber base at the Chinese wireless carrier reaching 38.7 million next year, Brian Marshall, an analyst with International Strategy & Investment Group, estimated in a note yesterday.

Networking-equipment makers rallied after Ciena Corp. posted profit and sales that beat analysts’ estimates. Ciena, which provides fiber-optic networking gear for carriers such as AT&T Inc., jumped 14 percent to $23.54. Phone stocks rallied 1.3 percent as a group, the most among 10 main S&P 500 industries.

Juniper Networks Inc. climbed 6.5 percent to $20.72 while JDS Uniphase Corp. increased 5.9 percent to $13.70.

J.C. Penney & Co. gained 6.1 percent to $13.50 after Glenview Capital Management LLC raised its stake in the department-store chain to 9.1 percent. Glenview joined J. Kyle Bass in boosting its Penney holdings, becoming the biggest shareholder in a bet the retailer will recover after Bill Ackman ended a revamp effort last month. Bass’s Hayman Capital Management LP holds 11.4 million shares.

Dollar General Corp. added 4.7 percent to a record $56.39.

The discount retailer reported second-quarter adjusted profit of 77 cents per share, beating the 74 cents estimated by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Competitor Dollar Tree Inc. rose 3.1 percent to $54.17.

E*Trade Financial Corp. rallied 8.1 percent to $15.71, the biggest gain in the S&P 500. The online brokerage said a subsidiary will pay a $100 million dividend to the parent company and plans to make similar payments every quarter.

Microsoft Corp. lost 2.2 percent, the most in the Dow, to $31.20. Morgan Stanley downgraded the world’s biggest software maker to equal weight, a rating comparable to neutral, from overweight, which is similar to buy. The company’s 5.44 billion- euro ($7.2-billion) deal to with Nokia Oyj’s devices unit brings execution risks and increased expenditure, the brokerage wrote in a note.

LinkedIn Corp. fell 2.9 percent to $238.93. The owner of the world’s biggest professional-networking website said in a filing it plans to sell 4.17 million shares of its Class A stock. LinkedIn estimated it will raise $1 billion from the sale, based on a closing price of $240.04 on Aug. 30.

SAIC Inc. tumbled 4.9 percent to $14.41. The company, which provides scientific services for government agencies related to national security, posted second-quarter revenue that missed analysts’ estimates and cut its annual sales forecast.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

Not only must we be aware of the nature and structure of the problem

and see it completely,

but meet it as it arises and resolve it immediately,

so that it does not take root in the mind.

If one allows a problem to endure for a month or a day,

or even for a few minutes, it distorts the mind.

Krishnamurti, 1895-1986


As ever,

 

Carolann

 

The attempt and not the deed confound us.

-William Shakespeare, 1564-1616


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, FCSI

Senior Vice-President &

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7