Category: Newsletters

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
August 23, 1775: Britain’s King George III proclaimed the American colonies in a state of open rebellion.  Go to article >>.

August 23, 1966: NASA’s Lunar Orbiter 1 captures Earth’s first photos from the Moon, a pivotal moment in space exploration and our view of Earth’s place in the universe.

1927: Sacco and Vanzetti executed.
Keith Moon, drummer, b.1946.
1977: First human-powered flight.

Ultra-thin solar ‘coating’ can turn phone cases and EVs into mini power generators
Cheap and flexible perovskite solar cells could revolutionize solar power, making it easier than ever to power the world with sunlight. Read More.

Remains of 14th-century gauntlet discovered in Oslo’s medieval harbor
Archaeologists excavating Oslo’s medieval harbor have unearthed the remnants of a 14th-century gauntlet. Read More.

Rare ‘doomsday fish’ said to bring earthquakes spotted in California days before LA quake
Beachgoers found a rare oarfish off California two days before an earthquake, mirroring folklore that says the deep-sea creatures are “doomsday fish.” Read More.

Some black holes have a ‘heartbeat’ — and astronomers may finally know why
A tiny fraction of known black holes emit X-ray signals that resemble a human “heartbeat.” Now, new research may finally explain the strange phenomenon. Read More.

Weird mystery waves that baffle scientists may be ‘everywhere’ inside Earth’s mantle
Structures that scatter seismic waves deep in Earth’s mantle seem to be everywhere researchers look. Read More.

Archaeologists in Virginia unearth colonial-era garden

 

Archaeologists in Virginia are uncovering one of colonial America’s most lavish displays of opulence: An ornamental garden where a wealthy politician and enslaved gardeners grew exotic plants from around the world. Read More.

A Japanese woman who loves bananas is now the world’s oldest person

 

Tomiko Itooka, a Japanese woman, became the world’s oldest living person at age 116, following the death of 117-year-old Maria Branyas, according to the Guinness World Records. Read More.

How an indigenous community is using apps to protect the Amazon
Matsés communities in the Amazon rainforest are embracing digital technology to help protect their traditional way of life. Watch the video here

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A young Icelander releases a puffling from a cliff in Vestmannaeyjar, an archipelago to the south of Iceland. Thousands of pufflings are rescued by locals in an annual tradition as they become misguided by city lights during their first flight
Photograph: Micah Garen/Getty Images

Fish explore a coral reef in a “rahui” or restricted area in Tahiti, French Polynesia
Photograph: Carlos Barría/Reuters

​​​​​​​Hai ‘an, China
Villagers row buckets to pick water chestnuts in eastern China’s Jiangsu province
Photograph: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for August 23^rd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41175.08	+462.30
		+1.14%
S&P 500	5634.61	+63.97
		+1.15%
NASDAQ	17877.79	+258.44
		+1.47%
TSX	+23286.08	+248.61
		+1.08%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38364.27	+153.26
		+0.40%
HANG SENG	17612.10	-28.90
		-0.16%
SENSEX	81086.21	+33.02
		+0.04%
FTSE 100*	8327.78	+39.78
		+0.48%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.032	3.071
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.126	3.155
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.7990	3.8521
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.0908	4.1258

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7402	0.7352
US $	1.3510	1.3602

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5130	0.6609
US $	1.1199	0.8929

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2483.00	2497.95
Oil
WTI Crude Future	73.79	73.79

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1976, Vanguard launched First Index Investment Trust, the first retail index fund, to howls of derision. As Fidelity Chairman Edward C. Johnson III said that day, “The name of the game is to do the best and I can’t conceive of investment managers not even trying to do better than average.” Now known as the Vanguard 500 Index Fund, it today ranks among the largest mutual funds in the world.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.1% at 23,286.08 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.2% on Aug. 15 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 198 of 226 shares rose, while 24 fell.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.4%.
Denison Mines Corp. had the largest increase, rising 12.8%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 17 times. The next day, it advanced 14 times for an average 0.7% and declined three times for an average 0.9%
* This month, the index rose 0.8%
* So far this week, the index rose 1%
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 on a trailing basis and 15.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.66t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.22% compared with 13.98% in the previous session and the average of 13.12% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 87.7638| 1.2| 23/4
Energy | 48.8929| 1.2| 41/0
Materials | 35.3055| 1.2| 43/7
Industrials | 29.0726| 0.9| 24/4
Information Technology | 22.7261| 1.2| 8/1
Real Estate | 8.4052| 1.7| 19/1
Utilities | 6.4854| 0.7| 13/2
Consumer Discretionary | 5.1992| 0.6| 11/1
Communication Services | 4.1470| 0.6| 4/1
Health Care | 1.0435| 1.6| 4/0
Consumer Staples | -0.4087| 0.0| 8/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | 21.8600| 3.4| -31.9| 24.8
RBC | 17.7000| 1.2| -30.7| 16.5
Shopify | 14.6200| 1.7| 16.8| -0.3
Intact Financial | -1.1220| -0.4| -20.5| 23.9
Couche-Tard | -3.3020| -0.8| -5.7| 0.3
Restaurant Brands | -4.4880| -2.1| 12.7| -8.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rallied across the board and bond yields tumbled, with Jerome Powell giving its clearest signal yet that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in September.
While Wall Street had already priced in the start of policy easing next month, Powell’s comments that the “time has come” validated those views.
Now there are plenty of other aspects in his Jackson Hole speech that shouldn’t be overlooked.
For one, the Fed chief acknowledged recent progress on inflation.
Then there’s the fact the he sees the economy growing at a “solid pace” — which provides reassurance after the recent growth scare.
But it was actually his emphasis on the “cooling labor market” that got the attention of many market observers.
Basically, it was seen as an indication the Fed will do whatever it can to avoid a pronounced slowdown.
“The market should be happy with this speech because it wasn’t hawkish in any way, gave the green light for 25 basis-point rate cuts — and left the door open for even larger cuts if that becomes necessary,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance.
To be sure, bigger cuts could also be a warning sign for equities as they could indicate a rush prevent an economic contraction.
“It is important at this time to take a balanced approach to investing and neither plan for an imminent recession, nor chase risk and get complacent just because the Fed will be lowering rates in less than a month,” Zaccarelli noted.
Absent from Powell’s speech was any specific discussion of the destination for the federal funds rate at the end of this easing cycle or the pace of rate cuts along the way, noted Richard Clarida at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“The details are yet to come into focus, but for the Fed, the direction of travel seems clear,” said Clarida, also a former Fed vice chair.
The August jobs report will likely be significant in the “25 versus 50” discussion, he said.
The S&P 500 rose over 1%, with every major group gaining.
Treasuries climbed across the curve, and the two-year yield broke below 4%.
The dollar lost 1%. Swap traders are now pricing over 100 basis points of easing this year, which implies a reduction at every remaining policy meeting through December, including one jumbo 50-basis-point cut.
“Here comes the punchbowl,” said David Russell at TradeStation.  Jerome Powell came out swinging today with a litany of dovish signals.  He drove the point home with a clear call for adjusting policy.  This keeps a tailwind at the market’s back into year-end, making it harder to expect a retest of this month’s lows.”
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, while Powell did not explicitly reference the “size” of cuts, “pace” incorporates the possibility of moving faster than 25 basis points per meeting.
“Powell has rung the bell for the start of the cutting cycle,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management. “Powell has not pre-committed to a 50 basis-point cut. But make no mistake, if the labor market shows signs of further cooling, the Fed will cut with conviction.”
Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research noted that the word “gradual” was missing from his speech. Unlike some of the recent Fed speakers, Powell is not removing the optionality of doing large moves as policy adjusts, he said.
“The strike price on the fabled ‘Powell Put’ is now rising,” Dutta added.
A labor market softening more so than previously thought should spur faster and steeper interest-rate cuts by the Fed, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists.
That should leave the federal funds rate 75 basis points lower by the end of this year from its current level — the July survey only saw 50 basis points of easing — followed by a quicker pace of reductions into 2026.
While many had their eyes peeled on Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, the jobs data in early September will be of even bigger importance.
“It’s about the labor data, period — that’s what’s going to dictate what the Fed does, they’ve said that,” Wilson, the bank’s chief US equity strategist, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “And that’s what the market is going to trade off of.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. is planning to hold its biggest product launch event of the year on Sept. 10, when the company will unveil the latest iPhones, watches and AirPods, according to people familiar with the situation.
* McKesson Corp. is in advanced talks to buy a controlling stake in Florida Cancer Specialists & Research Institute, a privately-held operator of oncology clinics, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Slowing sales at Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp.’s namesake driving ranges and a hefty debt load that threatens to frighten off buyers spurred Raymond James to slash the company’s rating.
* Workday Inc. surged after executives said the software company would sharply increase profitability over the next three years.
* Cava Group Inc. soared after raising its full-year outlook after posting second-quarter results that beat expectations, the latest indicator that diners see good value in fast-casual restaurants.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.15% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1%
* The euro rose 0.7% to $1.1190
* The British pound rose 0.9% to $1.3208
* The Japanese yen rose 1.4% to 144.29 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.8% to $63,612.73
* Ether rose 4.7% to $2,747.76
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.80%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.22%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 3.91%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.6% to $74.91 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $2,510.04 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alex Nicholson, Robert Brand and Lynn Thomasson.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
We can either make ourselves miserable, or we make ourselves strong.  The amount of work is the same. -Carlos Castaneda, 1925-1998.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
August 22, 1851: The first America’s Cup was won by the American yacht “America” in  a race around the Isle of Wight.

August 22: In 1989, Black Panthers co-founder Huey P. Newton was shot dead

August 22, 2005 The last Jewish settlers left the Gaza Strip, ending decades of Israel’s turbulent occupation. Go to article >>

Pink to perform at DNC today
The global pop icon has been tapped for a closing night performance at the Democratic National Convention.

Tourists scaling the Great Wall of China can get food delivered by drone
Hungry tourists hiking on the Great Wall of China can now get their lunch delivered — from the air.

Grand Stade Hassan II: Design revealed for one of the world’s largest stadiums ahead of 2030 World Cup
The 115,000-capacity soccer stadium in Morocco will have a big role to play in the 2030 FIFA World Cup.

Starbucks brings back Pumpkin Spice Latte earlier than ever
The wait is over — what a sweet re-leaf. Beginning today, Starbucks’ beloved “PSL” returns to US menus with other fall-themed drinks and snacks.

1,000-year-old remains of ‘elite woman’ in silk cloak found in abandoned fortress in Mongolia
The burial site was hidden inside an abandoned fortress in Mongolia and contained the remains of a prestigious woman. Read More.

‘Stunning’ Bronze Age burial chamber discovered on the English moor
The stone-lined tomb could provide an unprecedented look at life in Bronze Age England. Read More.

See the moment the blue supermoon ‘gobbled up’ Saturn in epic astrophotography image
Overnight on Aug. 20-21, the full ‘Sturgeon Supermoon’ briefly occulted, or passed in front of, Saturn, snuffing the ringed planet’s light from the sky. An epic new astrophotography image captures the entire spectacle from start to finish. Read More.

Heaviest antimatter particle ever discovered could hold secrets to our universe’s origins
The newly found antiparticle, called antihyperhydrogen-4, could have a potential imbalance with its matter counterpart that may help scientists understand how our universe came to be. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Çanakkale, Turkey
Kalpli Göl (heart-shaped lake) located near the village of Dalyan. The phytoplankton Dunaliella salina gives the lake its unique pink colour
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Berlin, Germany
A young giraffe named Emily interacts with her mother in their enclosure during a name-giving event at the Tierpark zoo
Photograph: Ralf Hirschberger/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Taipei, Taiwan
Taipei Performing Arts Center, designed by architects Rem Koolhaas and David Gianotten
Photograph: Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for August 22^nd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40712.78	-177.71
		-0.43%
S&P 500	5570.64	-50.21
		-0.89%
NASDAQ	17619.35	-299.64
		-1.67%
TSX	23037.47	-84.26
		-0.36%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38211.01	+259.21
		+0.68%
HANG SENG	17641.00	+249.99
		+1.44%
SENSEX	81053.19	+147.89
		+0.18%
FTSE 100*	8288.00	+4.57
		+0.06%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.071	3.016
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.155	3.100
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.8521	3.8010
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.1258	4.0775

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7352	0.7362
US $	1.3602	1.3584

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5123	0.6613
US $	1.1118	0.8995

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2497.95	2529.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	73.79	72.67

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1787, John Fitch launched the first successful steamboat run in U.S. waters, on the Delaware River. He never got costs under control so Robert Fulton is remembered as the father of the steamboat.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 23,037.47 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest loss since Aug. 7 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.4%.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.1%.
Denison Mines Corp. had the largest drop, falling 5.6%.
Today, 141 of 226 shares fell, while 79 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 0.3%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 23.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 0.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.67t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 13.98% compared with 14.11% in the previous session and the average of 12.97% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -47.3907| -1.6| 3/48
Information Technology | -32.3560| -1.6| 0/10
Financials | -7.9056| -0.1| 15/11
Consumer Staples | -6.4362| -0.7| 5/6
Consumer Discretionary | -4.6308| -0.6| 3/10
Utilities | -0.6897| -0.1| 8/7
Health Care | -0.2795| -0.4| 1/3
Communication Services | -0.0216| 0.0| 3/2
Real Estate | 1.2961| 0.3| 10/9
Energy | 6.0139| 0.1| 17/21
Industrials | 8.1385| 0.3| 14/14
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -21.0500| -2.1| 58.3| -7.0
Shopify | -20.0300| -2.3| -53.2| -1.9
Couche-Tard | -7.6710| -1.9| 13.7| 1.1
TC Energy | 3.6250| 0.8| 31.9| 16.9
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 5.9310| 0.8| -33.9| 4.4
RBC | 7.3150| 0.5| -30.8| 15.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Bond yields climbed and stocks struggled, with traders betting Jerome Powell will throw cold water on market expectations for aggressive interest-rate cuts this year.
In the run-up to Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, Treasuries tumbled, with the move led by shorter maturities.
The dollar gained.
The S&P 500 lost steam after getting close to its all-time high.
Tech mega caps sold off.
The swap market has cemented wagers the Federal Reserve will ease policy by one percentage point this year, starting in September with the likelihood of a 25- or even 50-basis-point cut.
“Will Powell allude to a slow walk down the monetary policy stairs or a speedy elevator ride down to the basement?” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “Powell is likely to choose the stairwell rather than the elevator.”
Wall Street traders waded through a raft of remarks from US policymakers, with Fed Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid saying he wants to see more data before supporting cuts.
His Boston counterpart Susan Collins says “a gradual, methodical pace” is likely to be appropriate.
Her comments were echoed by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker in a CNBC interview.
“The script is clear — the Fed is going to ease in September, but no one is portraying a desire to ease 50 basis points at this time,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
Traders are overplaying the prospects of an aggressive series of Fed cuts before the end of the year, according to Mohamed El-Erian.
“It is problematic in my mind that the market is pricing in so many rate cuts right now,” El-Erian, the president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, told Bloomberg Television on Thursday. “The market is overdoing it.”
Treasury 10-year yields advanced six basis points to 3.86%.
The S&P 500 dropped 0.9%.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7%, with Nvidia Corp. leading losses in big tech.
Intel Corp. tumbled 6.1%.
Banks climbed and energy shares joined oil higher.
Peloton Interactive Inc. surged 35% after the fitness company reported earnings that beat estimates.
“We are now once again not debating if they will cut, but by how much they will cut and how many times they will cut before year end,” said Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth. “I am in the 25 basis-point and three-times camp. The US economy is
not circling the drain – so there is no need to suggest that it is.”
Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research says his sense is that Powell will signal an easing cycle starting in September.
However, contrary to what the market is pricing in for the remainder of 2024, he doesn’t believe the Fed Chair will signal a cut larger than 25 basis points.
Sam Stovall at CFRA also bets the next Fed-easing cycle will be initiated in a “more measured fashion” with a 25 basis-point cut.
“This ‘slower to lower’ approach will likely be intended to signal that the Fed is not behind the curve, but will allow it to ensure that the embers of inflation have been fully extinguished before concluding that its mission has been completed,” he noted.
On the economic front, the latest figures were more of a “mixed bag.” Data showed jobless claims data showed the labor market is cooling only gradually — rather than rapidly slowing.
US manufacturing activity shrank at the fastest pace this year on further weakness in production, orders and factory employment. And existing-home sales increased for the first time in five months.
“The US economy overall has, thus far, been robust enough to take an extended Fed rate pause,” said Don Rissmiller at Strategas. “But there’s a clear case for rate cuts soon.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Snowflake Inc. gave a sales outlook that failed to reassure investors that the company will gain ground in the market for artificial intelligence software tools. The shares fell in extended traded.
* Urban Outfitters Inc., the Anthropologie and Free People brands, posted quarterly sales growth that came in below Wall Street’s expectations.
* Carlyle Group Inc. is acquiring Advance Auto Parts Inc.’s Worldpac unit for $1.5 billion, striking the first major industrial investment for the firm in more than two years.
* Zoom Video Communications Inc. gave a sales forecast for the current quarter that beat analysts’ estimates, suggesting its expanded suite of products is making gains with business customers.
* Starboard Value LP urged Autodesk Inc.’s board to evaluate whether Chief Executive Officer Andrew Anagnost is the right person to lead the company following recent accounting issues.

Key events this week:
* Japan CPI, Friday
* BOJ’s Kazuo Ueda to attend special session at Japan’s parliament to discuss July hike, Friday
* US new home sales, Friday
* Jerome Powell speaks in Jackson Hole, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1108
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3085
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 146.31 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $60,314.55
* Ether fell 0.9% to $2,607.87
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.86%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.24%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 3.96%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $72.93 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.2% to $2,483.12 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It’s not what happens to you, but how you react that matters. -Epictetus, c. 50 AD-c. 135 AD.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

August 21, 1878: The American Bar Association was founded in Saratoga, N.Y.  Go to article >>

Count Basie, bandleader, b. 1904.

Benigo Aquino, assassinated.
Wilt Chamberlain, basketball player, b. 1936.

Rare pre-Inca burials of 4 people found at ‘water cult’ temple in Peru
Archaeologists have found the skeletal remains of four people — two children, a teenager and an adult — at a site in Peru that predates the Incas. Read More.

Rare ‘moonbows’ light up night sky across US as blue supermoon rises — and you could still spot another one
At least two lunar rainbows, including a stunning “double moonbow,” have been spotted above the U.S. in the lead-up to the blue supermoon. And there is still a chance to see one of these elusive arches for yourself. Read More.

World’s oldest person, Maria Branyas Morera, dies at 117 years old
The supercentenarian, who was born in San Francisco in 1907, died “peacefully in her sleep” in Olot, Spain. Read More.

Huge 13,600-year-old mastodon skull and bones unearthed in Iowa
A team of archaeologists recently excavated the first well-preserved mastodon bones ever found in Iowa, including the prehistoric animal’s skull. Read More.

Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck are divorcing after two years
“Bennifer” is calling it quits … again. Here’s what we know about their split.

Billions of crabs vanished around Alaska. Scientists have evidence it will happen again
The decline of the Alaskan snow crab signals a wider ecosystem change in the Arctic, as oceans warm and sea ice disappears

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

1st place Travel
Sahara Surfing, Erg Chebbi, Northern Sahara, Morocco
Photograph: Khalid Mahmood

China, Beijing
Humanoid robots on display at the World Robot Conference
Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Shanghai, China
A man walks inside a high-rise glass window shopping mall
Photograph: Ying Tang/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for August 21^st, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40890.49	+55.52
		+0.14%
S&P 500	5620.85	+23.73
		+0.42%
NASDAQ	17918.99	+102.05
		+0.57%
TSX	23121.73	+84.29
		+0.37%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37951.80	-111.12
		-0.29%
HANG SENG	17391.01	-120.07
		-0.69%
SENSEX	80905.30	+102.44
		+0.13%
FTSE 100*	8283.43	+10.11
		+0.12%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.016	3.008
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.100	3.080
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.8010	3.8067
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.0775	4.0606

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7362	0.7344
US $	1.3584	1.3617

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5156	0.6598
US $	1.1157	0.8963

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2529.75	2494.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	72.67	74.04

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day on August 21, 1754: William Murdock was born in Bellow Mill, near Cumnock in Ayrshire, Scotland. His invention of coal-gas lighting in 1792 marked a leap forward in human productivity and safety from lit buildings and streets.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 23,121.73 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.5%.
Calibre Mining Corp. had the largest increase, rising 7.7%.
Today, 149 of 226 shares rose, while 74 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 27% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 23.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.6% in the past 5 days and rose 1.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.66t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.11% compared with 14.60% in the previous session and the average of 12.93% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 25.8219| 1.3| 9/1
Materials | 21.5136| 0.7| 39/12
Financials | 19.4843| 0.3| 19/8
Industrials | 15.8266| 0.5| 20/8
Real Estate | 5.9280| 1.2| 20/0
Consumer Discretionary | 4.1745| 0.5| 5/8
Communication Services | 0.9618| 0.1| 3/2
Health Care | 0.4825| 0.7| 3/0
Consumer Staples | 0.2906| 0.0| 8/2
Utilities | -0.5195| -0.1| 5/10
Energy | -9.6848| -0.2| 18/23
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 13.1000| 1.5| -14.5| 0.4
Constellation Software | 10.3000| 1.8| -15.6| 30.9
TD Bank | 4.7050| 0.5| -31.1| -5.1
Canadian Natural Resources | -2.2470| -0.3| 94.8| 11.7
Enbridge | -3.2680| -0.4| -40.5| 11.2
TC Energy | -4.4220| -1.0| -27.2| 15.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks climbed after dovish Federal Reserve minutes and a big downward revision of US payrolls reinforced bets policymakers will cut interest rates in September.
Almost every major group in the S&P 500 advanced, with the US benchmark gauge closing at a five-week high.
Shorter-term Treasuries outperformed, with two-year yields slumping almost 10 basis points before paring the move.
Traders are once again pricing in more than 1 percentage point worth of easing by the end of this year, starting next month.
In the run-up to Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole Friday, traders scoured minutes from the latest Fed policy meeting.
Several Fed officials acknowledged there was a plausible case for cutting rates at their July gathering before the central bank’s policy committee voted unanimously to keep them steady.
“The Fed minutes removed all doubt about a September rate cut,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.
“The Fed’s communication strategy is to make its meetings less of a market moving event, and they are following the script to the letter.”
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, with a “vast majority” of Fed members viewing a September rate cut as appropriate before the disappointing monthly jobs report, it seems all but certain that the Fed will cut next month.
“The question isn’t whether the Fed will cut rates in September, but rather, how much will the Fed cut?” he said. “The market is currently pricing in greater odds of a 25 basis point cut rather than a 50 basis point cut, which seems like the more likely outcome at this point, provided the August jobs report isn’t a drastic disappointment.”
The S&P 500 rose to around 5,620. Target Corp. climbed 10% after ending a string of sales declines in the second quarter, citing improved discretionary spending.
Macy’s Inc. sank 13% on a bearish outlook.
Treasury 10-year yields fell one basis point to 3.79%.
Oil slumped as trend-following algorithmic sellers overlooked a bullish US stockpile report.
The Jackson Hole economic symposium kicks off Thursday — with Fed Chair Powell expected to speak on Friday morning.
And the S&P 500 is on pace to enter the event with the second strongest year-to-date performance since the year 2000, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group.
While performance leading up to Jackson Hole has been positive this year, the index has risen only a third of the time during the symposium across these prior instances with an average decline of 1.37% over the few days it takes place, Bespoke said.
The index has also averaged declines the next day, week, and through the next Fed meeting.
That’s roughly a three-week period after the last day of the symposium.
With the Fed poised to cut rates from restrictive levels and still strong economic and earnings fundamentals, the environment remains supportive for stocks, according to Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Marcelli believes quality growth remains well placed to outperform.
Firms with competitive advantages and exposure to structural drivers should be better positioned to grow and reinvest earnings consistently, she noted.
While the annual revision to jobs growth wouldn’t usually impact trading, it got attention this time around due to the recent concern the labor market is cooling too much amid high rates.
The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March.
It was the largest downward revision since 2009.
“The main message from the revisions in my mind is reinforce just how ‘silly’ it is to let the next jobs number be the determinant in whether to go 25 or 50 in September,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
“What this revision data imply is that whatever the next jobs number is going to be, it’s probably lower in reality.”
Krishna Guha at Evercore says the big payroll revisions will reinforce the Fed’s assessment that the labor market has been softening under restrictive policy and that it will need to recalibrate rates in a timely manner to prevent this from extending further than desired.
All this favors a relatively “low bar” for 50 basis-point rate cuts.
The base case remains a string of 25 basis-point moves.
At Strategas, Don Rissmiller says the case for lower policy rates got stronger.
The Fed will need to validate this rate cut cycle – which likely means multiple cuts, he noted, pointing to Powell’s speech on Friday at Jackson Hole.
To Jennifer McKeown at Capital Economics, central bankers are unlikely to offer much forward guidance at the Jackson Hole symposium, preferring to stress their “data dependence.”
“Since most economies are expanding, inflation is easing back to target and financial markets have stabilized after the recession scare a few weeks ago, there is less pressure for them to steer markets than there has been around past events,” she noted. “But they risk keeping rates too high for too long.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc.’s vice president in charge of the App Store is leaving as the company reorganizes to respond to changes in global regulations.
* Ford Motor Co. is recalibrating its electrification strategy yet again, canceling plans for a fully electric sport utility vehicle in a shift that may cost the carmaker around $1.9 billion.
* Walmart Inc. raised about $3.6 billion by selling its stake in Chinese e-commerce firm JD.com Inc., winding down an eight-year partnership that appears to be paying diminishing returns amid a challenging landscape for Chinese tech giants.
* US coal producer Arch Resources Inc. agreed to merge with rival Consol Energy Inc. in a $2.3 billion deal aimed at creating a North American mining heavyweight to deliver the fuel around the world.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone HCOB PMI, consumer confidence, Thursday
* ECB publishes account of July rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, existing home sales, S&P Global PMI, Thursday
* Japan CPI, Friday
* BOJ’s Kazuo Ueda to attend special session at Japan’s parliament to discuss July hike, Friday
* US new home sales, Friday
* Jerome Powell speaks in Jackson Hole, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1152
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3090
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 145.03 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4% to $61,664.01
* Ether rose 2.3% to $2,648.64
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.79%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.19%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 3.89%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.7% to $71.94 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Pleasure is always derived from something outside you, whereas joy arises from within. -Eckhart Tolle, b.1948.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
August 20^th, 1953 The Soviet Union publicly acknowledged it had tested a hydrogen bomb. Go to article >>
August 20^th, 1977: Voyager 2 is launched by NASA to study the outer planets and beyond, becoming one of the most successful space missions.

1942: Plutonium first weighed.
Eliel Saarinen, architect, b. 1873.

In pictures: The rare super blue moon
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‘World’s most famous’ helipad on Burj al Arab turns 25
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‘Spectacular silver treasure’ from Viking Age unearthed by college student on farm in Denmark
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Quantum data beamed alongside ‘classical data’ in the same fiber-optic connection for the 1st time
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‘Final parsec problem’ that makes supermassive black holes impossible to explain could finally have a solution
A new study helps solve the “final parsec problem” that has made supermassive black hole formation impossible to explain, pointing to a strange form of dark matter as the key.

PHOTOS OF THE DAYLiverpool, EnglandSenior paintings conservator Dave Crombie works on Echo and Narcissus by John William Waterhouse. Painted in 1903, it depicts the Roman myth in which Narcissus rejects the nymph Echo and falls in love with his own reflection
Photograph: Adam Vaughan/EPA
Erçek Lake, Turkiye
A pelican flies low over a flock of flamingoes
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
A deep red supermoon in the path of a spotlight on the Eiffel Tower in Paris. The supermoon will appear full in the sky for three days.
Photograph: Christian Hartmann/Reuters
Market Closes for August 20^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40834.97	-61.56
		-0.15%
S&P 500	5597.12	-11.13
		-0.20%
NASDAQ	17816.94	-59.83
		-0.33%
TSX	23037.44	-78.95
		-0.34%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38062.92	+674.30
		+1.80%
HANG SENG	17511.08	-58.49
		-0.33%
SENSEX	80802.86	+378.18
		+0.47%
FTSE 100*	8273.32	-83.62
		-1.00%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.008	3.066
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.080	3.134
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.8067	3.8711
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.0606	4.1222

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7344	0.7335
US $	1.3617	1.3633

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5156	0.6598
US $	1.1129	0.8985

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2494.55	2485.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	74.04	74.37

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1932: Franklin Delano Roosevelt kicked off his presidential campaign with a nine-point plan for helping the economy climb out of the Great Depression. Among the proposals: reforms of Wall Street underwriting and trading, increased regulation of commercial banks, a more aggressive role for the Federal Reserve, and a crackdown on utility companies. 
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 23,037.44 in Toronto. The move was the biggest since falling 0.4% on Aug. 7 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.3%.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.5%. Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest drop, falling 3.8%.
Today, 127 of 226 shares fell, while 94 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 0.3%
* The index advanced 16% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 27% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 23.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.9% in the past 5 days and rose 1.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.67t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 14.60% compared with 14.61% in the previous session and the average of 12.87% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -58.0411| -1.4| 8/33
Financials | -7.8278| -0.1| 11/15
Information Technology | -6.5186| -0.3| 1/9
Consumer Discretionary | -4.7899| -0.6| 7/6
Consumer Staples | -4.5020| -0.5| 4/7
Industrials | -3.4618| -0.1| 13/15
Utilities | -3.4360| -0.4| 7/8
Communication Services | -1.7914| -0.3| 2/3
Health Care | -1.1197| -1.7| 1/3
Real Estate | 0.9579| 0.2| 11/8
Materials | 11.5680| 0.4| 29/20
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -18.7300| -2.5| 150.7| 12.1
Suncor | -13.5700| -2.7| -7.5| 29.3
Cenovus Energy | -8.8460| -3.6| 32.0| 16.7
Wheaton Precious Metals | 4.6880| 1.8| -29.0| 28.5
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited/Limitee | 5.3040| 1.4| 6.8| 53.9
Fairfax Financial | 5.4100| 2.3| -24.8| 28.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks struggled to make headway, following a furious rally that put the market within a striking distance of its all-time highs.
A drop in equities interrupted what would have been the S&P 500’s longest winning streak in 20 years. In stark contrast to the “extreme negative momentum” during the panic selling of early August, “euphoria” has taken hold. In only eight days, the US equity benchmark added almost 8%, with positioning returning to extended levels. Just last week, nearly $16 billion in new long bets were added to S&P 500 futures, according to Citigroup Inc.
In another sign that bullishness has been in overdrive, Bank of America Corp. clients doled out $2.7 billion for US equities during the best week of the year for the S&P 500 Index, with inflows led by so-called smart money. And Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said so-called trend followers are “no longer a headwind” and are expected to be buyers of equities this week — no matter how markets move.
“The momentum guys are driving the bus,” said Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth. “Now the volumes have been trending lower as we move into the end of the month. Moves will be and are exaggerated as a result. And I think the recent rally is proof
of that exaggeration.”
At Miller Tabak, Matt Maley said it would be “healthy” if the equity market took a breather for a day or two.
“No market moves in a straight line,” he noted. The S&P 500 fell below 5,600. Nvidia Corp. — which had rallied almost 25% in six days — led losses in mega caps. Bank of America Corp. slumped after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. sold more shares. Lowe’s Cos. cut its full-year guidance. Netflix Inc. hit a record high. Palo Alto Networks Inc. climbed on a bullish outlook and after boosting its buyback program.
Treasury 10-year yields declined six basis points to 3.81%.
The loonie trailed most of its major peers as inflation in Canada decelerated, cementing rate-cut wagers. Oil steadied, with traders monitoring developments in cease-fire talks for the war in Gaza.
Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott, says that he continues to anticipate ongoing stock-market strength on a near- term basis, but he remains on “high alert” for another, potentially bigger corrective wave moving through the August- October time frame.
“So what happens when everything and everyone is teed up to be bullish,” Wantrobski said. “From a timing perspective, we are headed into a window where there may be high probability for a liquidity event to occur — and the charts, trader positioning, and sentiment are all very vulnerable right now in our view. We smell a ‘bull trap’ ahead. But hope we’re wrong.” After the S&P 500 last closed at overbought levels on July 23, it quickly sold off and moved into “extreme” oversold territory in just 13 calendar days, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Just as fast as the S&P 500 moved into extreme oversold territory, though, it swung back to overbought levels nearly as fast.
“The market may usually take the stairs up and the elevator down, but in this case, it took the elevator both ways!” the Bespoke strategists said. Since World War II, there have only been 10 other periods when the S&P 500 moved from oversold levels down to extreme overbought levels and back to overbought levels in less than five weeks.
While the S&P 500’s consistency of positive returns was slightly better than normal, the magnitude of the returns relative to historical averages was mixed, Bespoke noted. Median one-, three-, and six-month returns were modestly better than
the long-term average, but the median one-year gain was well below the post-WWII average.
“While stocks have experienced breathtaking moves in the last month, we would caution against trying to read too much (good or bad) into the swiftness of the rebound,” the strategists concluded.
Momentum traders and a surge in corporate buybacks promise to drive a US stocks rally over the next four weeks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Scott Rubner said in a note dated Monday. Rubner, who correctly predicted a late summer correction and advised in late June to trim exposure in US stocks after July 4, has turned tactically bullish saying current positioning and flows “will act as a tailwind as sellers are out of ammo.”
“Strong price momentum and sharp rapid reversals as witnessed over the past month are a feature of modern financial markets, not a bug,” said Jason Draho at UBS Global Wealth Management. “This stems from the outsized market influence of the Fed, macroeconomic uncertainty, investor herd behavior, and the growing use of index-linked products to manage positioning.”
Aside from flows and positioning, the recent rally was also fueled by bets the Federal Reserve will signal it’s getting closer to cutting rates. Just days ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, key US payrolls revisions is poised to
capture Wall Street’s attention.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the year through March was at least 600,000 weaker than currently estimated. While JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasters see a decline of about 360,000, Goldman indicates it could be as large as a million.
“Our guess as to what is driving rates lower today/over the last week is the hyper focus on the payroll revisions,” said Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research. “People seem to be assuming a large downward revision would increase the odds of
more aggressive rate cuts signal at Jackson Hole. That seems fair. Also, it doesn’t mean recession odds go up.”
To Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise, continued progress on inflation, moderating but still healthy labor conditions, and economic updates that point to firm consumer trends likely allow the Fed to comfortably begin cutting its policy rate in September.
From a monetary policy perspective, whether it’s a 25 or 50-basis point cut next month isn’t really that important, he noted. What is important — and not lost on investors over the last week or so — is that updates on labor, services activity, inflation, and the consumer all point to a still healthy economic environment, but one that allows the Fed room to start easing monetary policy.
“This is how a soft landing starts, in our view. Of course, there is no guarantee the Fed will ultimately pull it off, but you need the conditions in place to start, and it looks like we finally have those conditions in place today, he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Johnson & Johnson will pay as much $1.7 billion for V-Wave Ltd., bolstering its development efforts to treat heart failure as it goes deeper into medical technology.
* Kroger Co. is selling $10.5 billion of bonds on Tuesday to help fund its acquisition of fellow grocer Albertsons Cos. In what will be one of the biggest corporate bond deals of the year.
* Patients taking Eli Lilly & Co.’s blockbuster weight-loss shot were 94% less likely to develop diabetes in a three-year study that illuminates the long-term health benefits of treating obesity.
* Alaska Air Group Inc. and Hawaiian Holdings Inc. are one step closer to finalizing their $1.9 billion merger after the US Justice Department decided against challenging it.
* Boeing Co. has paused flight tests of its 777X jetliner while it inspects the four-aircraft fleet for cracking in a crucial structural component that connects the hulking General Electric Co. engines to the plane’s wings.
* Edgar Bronfman Jr. formally submitted a $4.3 billion bid to take control of Paramount Global and quash an existing offer from Skydance Media, according to a person familiar with the proposal.

Key events this week:
* US Fed minutes, BLS preliminary annual payrolls revision, Wednesday
* Eurozone HCOB PMI, consumer confidence, Thursday
* ECB publishes account of July rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, existing home sales, S&P Global PMI, Thursday
* Japan CPI, Friday
* Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to attend special session at Japan’s parliament to discuss July 31 rate hike, Friday
* US new home sales, Friday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1125
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3033
* The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 145.35 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $59,506.7
* Ether fell 0.5% to $2,602.83
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 3.81%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.22%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.92%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $74.04 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,515.22 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Isabelle Lee and Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
What you do when you don’t have to determines what you will be when you can no longer help it. -Rudyard Kipling, 1865-1907.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  Full moon tonight – rare blue moon.
The combination of a supermoon and blue moon will peak at 2:26 p.m. ET today, treating sky-gazers worldwide to a rare celestial sight. The last time this lunar event occurred was August 2023, and the next super blue moons are projected for January and March of 2037.

August 19, 1848: The New York Herald announces the California gold discovery, prompting the Gold Rush that brought 300,000 people to California.

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PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Monterey, California, US
A man checks out a convertible during the 73rd Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance automotive event, which hosted 214 cars from 16 countries and 29 states
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Vigo, Spain
The first supermoon of the year, known as the Sturgeon Moon or Harvest Moon, is illuminated behind the Rande Bridge
Photograph: SXENICK/EPA
Ciudad Juárez, Mexico
Tourists explore the Samalayuca dunes, which are part of the Chihuahuan desert, the largest in North America at 2,000 sq km
Photograph: José Luis González/Reuters
 Market Closes for August 19^th, 2024 

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40896.53	+236.77
		+0.58%
S&P 500	5608.25	+54.00
		+0.97%
NASDAQ	17876.77	+245.05
		+1.39%
TSX	23116.39	+61.78
		+0.27%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37388.62	-674.05
		-1.77%
HANG SENG	17569.57	+139.41
		+0.80%
SENSEX	80424.68	-12.16
		-0.02%
FTSE 100*	8356.94	+45.53
		+0.55%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.066	3.066
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.134	3.143
U.S. 10 Year Bond	3.8711	3.8826
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.1222	4.1402

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7335	0.7312
US $	1.3633	1.3676

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5111	0.6618
US $	1.1084	0.9022

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2485.80	2446.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	74.37	76.65

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 2004, in what was one of most eagerly anticipated initial public offerings, Google’s stock started trading. After refusing to let Wall Street underwriters price the stock, now known as Alphabet, the company conducted a “Dutch auction.” Initially priced at $85, the stock opened for trading at $100 a share and closed at $100.34.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the eighth day, climbing 0.3%, or 61.78 to 23,116.39 in Toronto.
Barrick Gold Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%. Seabridge Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 5.8%.
Today, 125 of 226 shares rose, while 94 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 28% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 23.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 3.2% in the past 5 days and rose 1.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 on a trailing basis and 15.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.66t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 14.61% compared with 14.61% in the previous session and the average of 12.69% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 39.4415| 1.4| 43/8
Financials | 21.3895| 0.3| 15/12
Industrials | 6.2842| 0.2| 15/13
Information Technology | 2.9659| 0.2| 7/3
Real Estate | 2.3459| 0.5| 13/5
Energy | 1.0521| 0.0| 15/23
Consumer Discretionary | 0.9039| 0.1| 7/6
Utilities | 0.3404| 0.0| 4/10
Health Care | 0.0987| 0.1| 1/3
Communication Services | -0.4727| -0.1| 2/3
Consumer Staples | -12.5626| -1.3| 3/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Barrick Gold | 6.8700| 2.1| 146.6| 15.1
RBC | 5.6350| 0.4| -34.7| 14.8
Enbridge | 5.4960| 0.7| 66.6| 11.8
ARC Resources | -2.3800| -2.2| 62.2| 28.2
Fairfax Financial | -3.2510| -1.4| -13.7| 26.0
Couche-Tard | -9.1450| -2.2| 44.3| 4.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks kept pushing higher, adding to a rally that’s already topped $3 trillion from this month’s lows amid hopes the Federal Reserve will signal it’s ready to start cutting interest rates.
All major groups in the S&P 500 advanced, with the gauge up for an eighth straight day — the longest winning streak in 2024.
While tech led gains on Monday, an equal-weighted version of the US equity benchmark — one that gives Target Corp. as much clout as Microsoft Corp. — hit an all-time high on hopes the rally will broaden beyond the mega cap space. The Russell 2000 of
smaller firms added 1.2%.
A bumpy stretch for investors in the dog days of July and August hasn’t tempered their zest for equities, with allocations still robust despite a bout of recent volatility and heightened uncertainty around the economy. Momentum traders and a surge in corporate buybacks promise to drive a US stock rally over the next four weeks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk.
“The pain trade for equities is higher and the bar for being bearish at the beach into a Labor Day barbecue party is high,” Goldman’s Scott Rubner wrote.
Stock volume has been trending lower since the trading spike during the early-August selloff as traders are reluctant to place big bets ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole economic symposium. About 10 billion shares changed hands on exchanges Monday, 14% below the one-month average.
With the central bank approaching a crucial pivot point, it’s difficult to overstate how much attention financial markets will be paying. For starters, they’re looking for confirmation from Jerome Powell Friday that the Fed will lower rates in September. But more drama surrounds what happens after that and the pace of additional cuts over the next several months as the Fed confronts the dual risks to both inflation and employment.
The Fed is unlikely to “out-dove” the market, but as long as growth is “OK,” equities can withstand a less-dovish central bank, according to Ohsung Kwon at Bank of America Corp.
“Stocks just need a nod that growth is going to be supported,” Kwon said. “While our view is that risk is to the upside, we do not believe that Jackson Hole will spur the large equity moves that it has in the past when the Fed used it as forum to telegraph upcoming policy decisions.”
Treasury 10-year yields fell one basis point to 3.87%. The dollar hit the lowest since March. Oil sank about 3%. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted a cease-fire proposal for Gaza and “them next important step is for Hamas to say yes.”
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, the Fed is cutting in September, the only question is by how much.
“I don’t think Powell is going to greenlight a big move, but he won’t torpedo the idea entirely either,” Dutta said.
“Powell is likely to acknowledge that the balance of risks has changed, dramatically since the June Summary of Economic Projections. Removing optionality in such a situation is not prudent.”
“So, in this regard, I think the fabled ‘Powell Put’ makes a comeback this week,” Dutta said.
All told, Dutta notes the equity market seems “a bit too enthusiastic” relative to the tone of the incoming economic information. Looking ahead, there is good reason to assume the pace of consumers’ spending slows, he concluded.
“Investors ‘climbed a wall of worry’ as the stock-market relief rally gained momentum,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler. “Equities will likely consolidate ahead of Fed commentary at Jackson Hole this week.”
Equity positioning is back up to moderately overweight, a week after sliding to underweight, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Parag Thatte and Binky Chadha, who said exposure remains well below the mid-July highs at the top of the
historical band.
Recent economic data and earnings readouts have reinvigorated confidence among JPMorgan Chase & Co. traders that US stocks can rally into the end of the year.
“While upside appears to be more muted than when we adopted this stance earlier this year, there remains material upside,” the team led by Andrew Tyler wrote.
The trajectory for stocks is likely to be dictated by the week-to-week cadence of macroeconomic data until August’s key jobs report, due in the first week of September, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
“The true test for the market will be the August jobs report,” they wrote. “A strong jobs report that reverses July’s softness will provide confidence that growth risks have subsided for now. Another weak report would likely lead to growth concerns resurfacing.”
“While we do remain generally bullish, we don’t see a straight line up in the market, as the economy is slowing and there will likely be a mix of conflicting economic data points over the coming months, which is set to continue this recessionary debate,” said Greg Marcus at UBS Private Wealth Management.
Marcus believes the Fed is on track to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, barring a significant shock to the downside between now and then.
“Investors should be extending duration with their cash holdings in preparation for rate cuts,” he said. “It’s important to diversify within US stocks and prepare for a broadening out in the market, as we believe this broadening of market participation is likely to include value stocks and small caps.”
In past rate-cut cycles, growth stocks have a better rate of outperformance over value across both large and small caps — but on median, they’ve fallen more, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Gina Martin Adams and Michael Casper.
Likewise, defensive sectors have had the edge over cyclicals. Measuring Fed rate cut cycles from the date of the first cut to that of the last one shows large-cap value posting a median 2.4% drop versus a 24.5% decline for growth — though the latter led in four of five instances. In the Russell 2000, value posted a median 2.7% gain to growth’s 21.5% drop, again with the latter ahead in three of five cut cycles.
However, across each cut cycle, S&P 500 staples, health care and communications had the most consistent performance while energy and industrials struggled most often. Russell 2000 communications and health care fared best while real estate and energy struggled.
Corporate Highlights:
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc. agreed to buy server maker ZT Systems in a cash and stock transaction valued at $4.9 billion, adding data center technology that will bolster its efforts to challenge Nvidia Corp.
* Estée Lauder Cos. is forecasting annual revenue growth below analysts’ expectations, a sign that the cosmetics company’s long-awaited recovery has hit another roadblock.
* Sonder Holdings Inc. soared after the alternative-lodging company reached a series of deals to raise capital and integrate its brand into Marriott International Inc.’s system.
* General Motors Co. is cutting more than 1,000 software engineers as the automaker moves to clean up its software and services organization, said a person familiar with the matter.
* Circle K operator Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. made a proposal to take over much larger rival and 7-Eleven owner Seven & i Holdings Co., in what would be the biggest foreign takeover of a Japanese company. A merger would create the world’s top operator of roughly 100,000 convenience stores.
Key events this week:
* China loan prime rates, Tuesday
* Eurozone CPI, Tuesday
* US Fed minutes, BLS preliminary annual payrolls revision, Wednesday
* Eurozone HCOB PMI, consumer confidence, Thursday
* ECB publishes account of July rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, existing home sales, S&P Global PMI, Thursday
* Japan CPI, Friday
* Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to attend special session at Japan’s parliament to discuss July 31 rate hike, Friday
* US new home sales, Friday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1083
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2990
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 146.65 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.4% to $58,958.52
* Ether fell 2.2% to $2,606.68
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.87%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.25%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.92%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.9% to $74.41 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Matthew Burgess, Natalia Kniazhevich and Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,
The best way to find out if you can trust somebody is to trust them. –Ernest Hemingway, 1899-1961.

Carolann

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
Palio of the Contrade, sienna, Italy.

On Aug. 16, 1977, singer Elvis Presley died at Graceland Mansion in Memphis, Tenn., at age 42. Go to article >>
“I don’t know anything about music.  In my line you don’t have to.” –Elvis Presley.

Babe Ruth, baseball great, d.1948.
Madonna, singer, b.1958.

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PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Bali, Indonesia
Dancers perform for tourists in a small village that celebrates traditional Balinese culture
Photograph: Thilina Kaluthotage/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock
Samsun, Turkey
Lake Ladik’s water levels have receded sharply after a recent drought
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Cannes, France
Technicians representing Canada show off their skills during the annual pyrotechnic art festival
Photograph: Chateau Cyril/ABACA/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for August 16^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40659.76	+96.70
		+0.24%
S&P 500	5554.25	+11.03
		+0.20%
NASDAQ	17631.72	+37.22
		+0.21%
TSX	23054.61	+21.89
		+0.09%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38062.67	+1336.03
		+3.64%
HANG SENG	17430.16	+321.02
		+1.88%
SENSEX	80436.84	+1330.96
		+1.68%
FTSE 100*	8311.41	-35.94
		-0.43%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.066	3.078
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.143	3.158
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.8826	3.9131
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.1402	4.1702

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7312	0.7282
US $	1.3676	1.3732

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5091	0.6627
US $	1.1034	0.9063

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2446.65	2456.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	76.65	78.16

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1982, the Journal reported that respected portfolio manager Richard I. Sichel had 30% of his stock funds in cash and favored high-grade bonds. Sichel warned earnings could disappoint and the Dow could hit “the low 700s.” In fact, the index never neared that level again, ending the year over 1000. Nowadays it sits above 40000.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 23,054.61 in Toronto.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 0.8%. New Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 6.4%.
Today, 112 of 226 shares rose, while 112 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 3.3%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Nov. 3
* The index advanced 16% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 23.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.66t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.61% compared with 14.91% in the previous session and the average of 12.40% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 42.2057| 1.5| 38/13
Financials | 40.3150| 0.6| 21/6
Utilities | 1.4948| 0.2| 10/5
Real Estate | 0.6447| 0.1| 13/7
Consumer Discretionary | 0.2319| 0.0| 9/4
Health Care | 0.1788| 0.3| 2/1
Communication Services | -2.0763| -0.3| 0/5
Consumer Staples | -4.0041| -0.4| 3/8
Information Technology | -9.6264| -0.5| 4/6
Industrials | -21.8631| -0.7| 8/20
Energy | -25.6171| -0.6| 4/37
================================================================
| | |Volume VS || Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 11.4700| 0.8| -73.0| 14.3
Barrick Gold | 9.8140| 3.1| 13.1| 12.7
CIBC | 8.2570| 1.8| 17.8| 12.8
Canadian Pacific | | | |
Kansas | -5.8010| -0.8| -56.4| 3.2
Shopify | -6.2530| -0.7| -62.4| -1.1
Canadian Natural | | | |
Resources | -7.3420| -1.0| -45.6| 15.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A flurry of data showing US economic resilience drove stocks to their best week this year, with dip buyers stepping in after a recent rout.
Equities extended their advance into a seventh straight session, with the S&P 500 seeing its best performance in such a span since October 2022. Just a week ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, traders hope the Federal Reserve chief will set expectations for the next policy gathering. While officials have brought down inflation, the labor market is still a wild card.
The stock market halted a streak of four weeks of losses that had been partially driven by concern the Fed wouldn’t reduce borrowing costs fast enough to prevent a deeper slowdown in the largest economy. Data this week showing ebbing inflation and a resilient consumer rekindled hopes the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing.
“This week’s reassuring inflation data has bolstered investor confidence, leading to a notable surge in market optimism,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “The persistent ‘buy-the-dip’ mentality remains in play, as investors who had moved to the sidelines over the last month raced to get back in.”
The S&P 500 rose to around 5,555. Most mega caps gained, with Nvidia Corp. leading the charge. Nike Inc. saw its longest winning streak in more than eight years. Applied Materials Inc. sank after a sales forecast that disappointed investors looking
for a bigger payoff from artificial-intelligence spending. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – the VIX – dropped below 15. Treasury 10-year yields fell three basis points to 3.88%.
The dollar had its third straight week losses — the longest streak since March. Hedge funds turned bullish on Japan’s currency for the first time since 2021 after sharp swings in foreign-exchange markets led to a blow-up of a popular yen
trade.
Gold hit $2,500, bolstered by hopes that the Fed is edging closer to cutting rates.
With US equities on the rebound, this summer’s selloff is looking more like a pause in the bull market than the beginning of its end.
Of course, traders have struggled to forecast where the economy is headed — and the recession fears that helped drive the recent pullback could resurface again just as quickly as they faded. On top of that, the US elections and geopolitical
tensions are adding other elements of uncertainty. But beneath the surface, there are some reassuring signals.
Among them: The selloff hit a relatively small slice of the market, with nowhere near the breadth of the routs set off by the Fed’s rate hikes, the pandemic and other pivotal events. And while valuations are at risk of another recalibration if the
economy does wind up sputtering, the S&P 500 during the recent retreat held above a threshold that — to technical analysts, at least — telegraphs investors’ continued confidence.
Positioning and macro factors shift the market skew to positive, but investors should still focus on buying high- quality assets, according to Tony Pasquariello at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“The speculative community has cleaned up a decent amount of length since the July highs,” Pasquariello wrote in note to clients Friday, referring to Goldman’s prime brokerage data that tracks hedge funds’ positioning and the latest update from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
“The week was essentially a ‘one way’ week, harshly punishing pessimistic outlooks,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “Nonetheless, the economic data still comes with contradictions. Significant uncertainties persist,
warranting caution against excessive optimism.”
At Bank of America Corp., Ralf Preusser says the next few weeks will likely determine whether the Fed ends up cutting by 50-75 basis points this year or more aggressively.
“We maintain a bullish bias in US rates, and would see a Jackson Hole-induced selloff as an opportunity to buy,” he noted.
Five Big Questions for the Fed at Jackson Hole: Bill Dudley Fed Chair Powell will speak next Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
With the central bank on the cusp of lowering interest rates from a more than two-decade high, Powell’s comments will be closely parsed for any hints on how the Fed chief is viewing the economy in the wake of a weaker-than-expected jobs report and further easing in inflation.
Pricing in the swap market has stabilized, implying around 30 basis points of easing next month and about 93 basis points by the end of the year. That marks a big retreat after traders were indicating more than 150 basis points of Fed cuts for 2024
earlier this month.
“Investors will also be looking for any guidance as to whether Powell is leaning toward a 25 or 50 basis-point rate cut,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets. “We’re in the 25 basis-point cut camp to be sure, and we anticipate the Chair will err on the side of flexibility by utilizing the time-tested ‘data dependent’ framing.”
“We look for Powell to signal that given recent progress, the Fed is likely to ease policy next month — without fully committing to the size of the rate cut,” according to TD Securities’ strategists. “We expect a 25 basis-point reduction.”
While recent data have indicated that a 25-basis point cut in September seems more probable than a bigger reduction, given the Fed’s increasing emphasis on the labor market, the next jobs report will be crucial in determining the final decision, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“The main message in Powell’s speech will likely be that monetary policy overall has worked as intended, and the current level of rates is restrictive,” said Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics. “He may say the balance of risk between the Fed’s mandates – employment and inflation – is about even. We expect him to signal a rate cut is coming, but not to indicate whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 bps. That will depend on the August jobs report.”
The more I think about and discuss the likely outcomes for next week’s Jackson Hole meeting, the more I return to this concern: that Chair Powell will tell us to “curb your enthusiasm,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
“It hardly seems appropriate for Chair Powell to re-affirm (the market’s) likelihood (of more than three cuts this year) at his Jackson Hole address next week given that it would put him well ahead of the last Summary of Economic Projections just weeks before the next one is due,” he noted.
Corporate Highlights:
* Mastercard Inc. is cutting 3% of staff worldwide, according to a spokesperson for the payments network.
* Boeing Co. Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg met with union representatives during his first week on the job and said he’s “committed to reset” the relationship the company’s relationship with workers as the US plane maker heads into crucial labor negotiations next month.
* Fox Corp., Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. and Walt Disney Co. were blocked by a judge from launching their streaming sports service one week before its rollout, taking a blow from their smaller rival FuboTV Inc.
* Texas Instruments Inc. is set to receive $1.6 billion in Chips Act grants and $3 billion in loans, the Biden administration announced Friday, marking the latest major award from a program designed to boost American semiconductor manufacturing.
* Rivian Automotive Inc. has paused production of the electric commercial van it makes for Amazon.com Inc. due to a parts shortage in the latest supply chain snafu for the EV maker.
* Bayer AG shares jumped following a significant win for the German company in the long-running cancer litigation over its Roundup weedkiller.
* A combination Covid-flu vaccination developed by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE missed on one of its goals in a final-stage trial, a setback for the companies as they search for lucrative new uses of a technology that succeeded in the pandemic.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1024
* The British pound rose 0.7% to $1.2945
* The Japanese yen rose 1.1% to 147.69 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 5.4% to $59,726.35
* Ether rose 2.8% to $2,621.09
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.88%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.25%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.93%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $76.74 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2.1% to $2,507.76 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg
Automation.

–With assistance from John Viljoen, Richard Henderson and
Felice Maranz.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

Carolann
He who understands my music can never know unhappiness again. –Ludwig van Beethoven, 1770-1827.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

Assumption of the Blessed Virgin, Roman Catholic.

August 15, 1620: Mayflower sets sail from Southampton, England, with 102 Pilgrims on the way to settle in America.
August 15, 1947 India became independent after some 200 years of British rule.  Go to article >>
August 15, 1962: Marvel Comics introduces Spider-Man in issue #15 of Amazing Fantasy, written by Stan Lee with illustrations by Steve Ditko.

Napoleon Bonaparte, French Emperor, b. 1769.
Sir Walter Scott, poet, b. 1771
Julia Child, b. 1912

Archaeologists unearthed a beautiful and remarkably well-preserved mosaic that was “hidden for thousands of years” in northwestern England. Featuring fish and dolphins, it was found in a city almost as large as Pompeii during its heyday.

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Telsa’s Optimus humanoid robot will be among the first such machines to flood our lives when it launches next year, with more set to follow. Read More.

‘Need to stop for a second’: Meteorologist has panic attack on air
An Australian meteorologist had a panic attack while live on air. See how his candid approach and support from co-hosts helped him manage the moment.

Is diet soda worse for you than regular?
Watch this video to learn the science behind erythritol — the sugar substitute often found in diet sodas.

North Korea will reopen to international tourism this winter
Having closed its borders to most tourism during the Covid-19 pandemic, North Korea is finally reopening to certain visitors, according to two tour companies with connections to the isolated country.

Apple pushes ahead with a tabletop robot.

What to know: The six-ton slab of sandstone at the center of England’s famous prehistoric monument was sourced 5,000 years ago from faraway Scotland, new research found.
How did it get there? It was either dragged over up to 600 miles of land (before the wheel was invented) or, more likely, taken by sea. But the finding raises new questions.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Barcelona, Spain
A boat sailing through stormy waters near the port
Photograph: Urbanandsport/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock

Baltistan, Pakistan
Hikers walk the Passu Glacier, situated below the 7,500-metre-high Passu Peak within the Karakoram mountain range
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Brussels, Belgium
A 1,680 sq metre art nouveau-themed flower carpet, constructed by a team of 100 gardeners using hundreds of thousands of dahlias and begonias at Grand Place
Photograph: Yves Herman/Reuters
Market Closes for August 15^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40563.06	+554.67
		+1.39%
S&P 500	5543.22	+88.01
		+1.61%
NASDAQ	17594.50	+401.90
		+2.34%
TSX	23032.72	+272.71
		+1.20%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36726.64	+284.21
		+0.78%
HANG SENG	17109.14	-4.22
		-0.02%
SENSEX	79105.88	+149.85
		+0.19%
FTSE 100*	8347.35	+66.30
		+0.80%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.078	3.024
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.158	3.113
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.9131	3.8352
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.1702	4.1250

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7282	0.7290
US $	1.3732	1.3718

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5068	0.6636
US$	1.0974	0.9113

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2456.70	2471.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.16	76.98

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1971: Alarmed at a 4.5% annual inflation rate, President Richard Nixon issued an executive order declaring a 90-day freeze on wages and prices. Within three years, inflation was at a record 12.2% and the nation was in the worst recession since 1929
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the sixth day, climbing 1.2%, or 272.71 to 23,032.72 in Toronto. The index advanced to the highest closing level since July 31.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.6%. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 7.8%.
Today, 185 of 226 shares rose, while 39 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 15 times. The next day, it advanced 12 times for an average 0.5% and declined three times for an average 0.9%
* So far this week, the index rose 3.2%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Nov. 3
* The index advanced 16% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 24% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 23.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 3.6% in the past 5 days and rose 1.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.62t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.91% compared with 14.53% in the previous session and the average of 12.24% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 58.7374| 0.8| 25/2
Information Technology | 58.6353| 3.1| 10/0
Materials | 44.9684| 1.6| 36/15
Industrials | 43.3915| 1.4| 24/4
Energy | 29.0470| 0.7| 35/5
Consumer Staples | 15.1375| 1.5| 9/2
Consumer Discretionary | 14.1239| 1.8| 13/0
Utilities | 5.2954| 0.6| 10/5
Real Estate | 3.1056| 0.6| 17/3
Health Care | 0.6839| 1.0| 3/1
Communication Services | -0.4081| -0.1| 3/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD | Index | | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors |Points Move|% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 38.5300| 4.6| 4.8| -0.4
Canadian Natural | | | |
Resources | 13.6300| 1.8| 74.8| 16.3
Canadian Pacific | | | |
Kansas | 13.0400| 1.9| -28.2| 4.0
iA Financial | -0.9240| -1.4| -53.7| 10.0
Barrick Gold | -0.9810| -0.3| -26.1| 9.4
Rogers Communications | -1.0450| -0.7| -56.2| -12.6

* The benchmark 10-year bond fell and the yield rose 5.5 basis points to 3.079%
* The S&P 500 Index advanced 1.6%
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks climbed and bonds tumbled as data on retail spending and the labor market underscored the strength of the world’s largest economy, allaying fears the Federal Reserve would be risking a deeper slowdown.
As economic jitters abated, the S&P 500 extended a six-day rally to 6.6% — the best performance in such a span since November 2022. Walmart Inc. — a barometer of growth — jumped on a solid outlook. Treasury yields surged, with the move led by
shorter maturities. Data showed retail sales beat estimates while jobless claims hit the lowest since early July. Swap traders further reduced bets on aggressive Fed easing.
“We’re back to an environment where good news is good news and bad news is bad news,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“Investors and consumers want inflation to go lower — but not at the expense of the economy. Today’s stronger-than-expected retail sales figure quiets some of the fears the US may be slipping into a recession.”
Given the recent worries about the labor market, the unemployment claims report was another positive. A weak US payrolls print earlier this month spurred concern the Fed has waited too long to cut rates. Thursday’s data should buy officials some time until the September meeting, Kenwell added.
“What hard landing?” said Aditya Bhave at Bank of America Corp. “The July retail sales data were consistent with our soft- landing economic outlook. We remain comfortable with our view that the Fed will cut rates only twice this year, by 25 basis points each, in September and December.”
US officials have been trying to use higher rates to ease inflation without causing the economy to contract — a scenario known as a “soft landing.” Fed Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said the time is approaching when it will be appropriate to cut rates. His Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic told the Financial Times he’s “open” to a reduction in September.
The S&P 500 climbed 1.6%. The Nasdaq 100 added 2.5%. The Russell 2000 of smaller firms climbed 2.5%. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – the VIX – dropped to around 15. In late hours, Applied Materials Inc., the largest US maker of chip-manufacturing equipment, gave a sales forecast that met estimates.
Treasury 10-year yields rose eight basis points to 3.91%.
Traders trimmed bets on a jumbo September Fed cut, and they now see less than 100 basis points of cuts for 2024. The dollar gained.
“Hard, soft, bumpy? The market goes ‘to the mattresses’,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers, referring to a line from the movie “The Godfather,” which means adopting a warlike stance. “All this discussion about whether our landing is hard or soft, combined with my wife and I needing a new mattress, has caused me to conflate the economy with bedding.”
“And in both cases, it really doesn’t matter,” Sosnick said. “If you’re tired enough, you’ll fall asleep anywhere. If you’re in a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and momentum-driven rally mode, you’ll buy stocks regardless of the reason. Today’s economic reports make the chances for aggressive rate-cutting more remote, but that doesn’t matter today.”
The retail sales numbers were a blowout versus consensus, but more importantly it should lay to rest (at least for the moment) all of the “doom and gloom” that was expressed at the beginning of this month, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance.
“This entire economic cycle has been a headscratcher from much higher-than-expected inflation to a much more resilient consumer than anyone could have forecast back in the dark days of 2020,” he noted. If the economy continues to be resilient – especially in conjunction with slowing inflation – then the Fed can begin a rate-cutting cycle without the economy entering recession and history shows this is an extremely positive environment for the stock market, he concluded.
To David Russell at Trade Station, investors fearing a potential recession or sharper slowdown have less to worry about.
“A soft landing is no longer a hope. It’s becoming a reality,” Russell said. “These numbers also suggest that recent market volatility wasn’t really a growth scare. It was just normal summer seasonality amplified by moves in the currency market.”
The market fallout from the “weak” early August US data was “disproportionate” and largely reflected the unwind of crowded positions in some markets, according to Jonas Goltermann at Capital Economics.
“As such, we are sticking to our optimistic forecasts for equity markets and “risky” assets more broadly,” he said.
At Ned Davis Research, Ed Clissold said that if markets continue to calm down, one indicator should give a bullish signal in the coming days, confirming that the bull market is intact.
One way to capture the volatility surge of earlier this month is through the VVIX — which measures the volatility of the VIX.
On Aug. 5, the gauge hit its highest level since March 2020. When the VVIX has fallen from such extremely high levels, the S&P 500 has rebounded sharply over the next few weeks, Clissold noted. The rally has continued for up to a year later, on average.
While calm has seemingly been restored to Wall Street, Deutsche Bank AG’s Christian Nolting says investors still need to gird against wild asset swings to come.
“We expect volatility to stay at higher levels due to seasonality and change in markets which are no longer priced to perfection,” said Nolting. Expectations have been reset after the once unstoppable equities rally stumbled on a weak jobs report and the “good news is now good news and bad news is bad news.”
To Jeff Roach at LPL Financial, the jobs market — and what it means for consumer spending — is a key factor in why the Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates next month, he said.
Measures of consumer sentiment have been subdued as the labor market cools and the presidential election nears, overshadowing progress in taming inflation.
“Investors should expect more volatility in the near term as the economic data likely give conflicting signals.”
Corporate Highlights:
* Autodesk Inc. continued to use a controversial sales strategy after promising investors it would stop and ignored internal warnings about the risks of doing so, according to previously unreported internal documents.
* Deere & Co., the world’s top tractor maker, reported better- than-expected results and affirmed its profit outlook as cost- cutting efforts help it weather a slumping farm economy.
* Nike Inc. surged after Pershing Square Capital Management LP disclosed a new stake in the world’s largest sportswear company.
* Seagram Co. heir Edgar Bronfman Jr. is close to making an offer for Paramount Global, setting off a potential bidding war for the film and TV company that owns CBS and MTV.
* Dell Technologies Inc. was added to the analyst focus list at JPMorgan Chase & Co., which cited an “attractive entry point.”
* Johnson & Johnson was twice blocked in New Jersey from getting bankruptcy protection from one of its units to resolve billions of dollars in cancer claims tied to baby powder use. For its third try, the company is eyeing Texas, home to what are widely considered more business-friendly courts.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby, one of the biggest customers and biggest critics of Boeing Co., said the planemaker is “on the right path” under new CEO Kelly Ortberg and will recover sooner than expected from a series of safety missteps.

Key events this week:
* Japan tertiary index, Friday
* US housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday
* Canada housing starts, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2.9%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0973
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2855
* The Japanese yen fell 1.2% to 149.04 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.5% to $57,066.81
* Ether fell 4.7% to $2,549.8
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced eight basis points to 3.91%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.26%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 3.92%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $77.94 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,455.50 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg
Automation.

–With assistance from John Viljoen and Richard Henderson.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
In three words I can sum up everything I’ve learned about life: it goes on. –Robert Frost, 1874-1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: 1945: La Torta dei Fieschi, Italy.

August 14, 1945: Japan accepts the terms of the Potsdam Declaration announced Harry S. Truman.  Japan surrenders, unconditionally, ending World War II and widespread celebrations erupt in the US and all
its allied nations.  Go to article >>
August 14, 1947: Pakistan becomes independent from British rule.
August 14,1993: The Yankees retire Reggie Jackson’s #44.

Steve Martin, comedian, b.1945.
Earvin “Majic” Johnson, basketball great, b. 1959.
Halle Berry, actress, b. 1968

Animal street art has been appearing all over London
Banksy strikes again. Workers at the London Zoo on Tuesday were surprised to discover an exhibit that suggested the animals were being set free.

Jimmy Kimmel explains why he’s not hosting the next Oscars
The late-night host has shared why he recently turned down a request for him to host the Academy Awards next year for a fifth time.

‘Veep’ star Julia Louis-Dreyfus to host panel at DNC
Actress Julia Louis-Dreyfus will host a panel during the Democratic National Convention with the Democratic Governors Association to put a spotlight on the United States’ female governors.

Enrich your life, protect your brain
Feeling your life lacks purpose may be putting you at risk for cognitive impairment in later life, according to a new study. Read why it’s important to continue your personal growth in older age

The discovery: Suzanne Flament-Smith was cleaning up storm debris last week when she spotted a glass bottle poking out of a trash heap on the side of a trail near Tampa.
What does it say? It’s dated “3/4/45” and has a letterhead from a Navy base in Virginia Beach. The author appeared to write about a nearby bar having “pretty good beer.”

Huge mammoth tusk discovered sticking out of Mississippi streambed
An amateur fossil hunter in Mississippi found the first known fossil in the region from a mammoth — a well-preserved tusk that weighed about 600 pounds (270 kilograms). Read More.

Would you prefer AI to make major life decisions for you? Study suggests yes — but you’d be much happier if humans did
Most people much prefer algorithms to make decisions about the redistribution of resources — but they see the outcomes of human-made decisions as more favorable. Read More.

Earth from space: High winds paint puzzling ice streaks across the sea in Antarctica
A 2021 satellite photo captured rare, wispy streaks of ice stretching across an ocean channel separating the Ronne Ice Shelf and a patch of multi-year sea ice in Antarctica. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Shaftesbury, UK
Young handlers with their sheep during judging at the Gillingham and Shaftesbury show
Photograph: Finnbarr Webster/Getty

Ahmedabad, India
Women search for reusable material among offerings to the Hindu goddess Dashama left by devotees on the banks of the Sabarmati at the end of the 10-day Dashama festival
Photograph: Ajit Solanki/AP
Elche, Spain
A reveller surrounded by firecrackers during the Nit de l’Albà (Night of Dawn), a celebration of the city’s patron saint, dating back to the Middle Ages
Photograph: Pablo Miranzo/EPA
Market Closes for August 14^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40008.39	+242.75
		+0.61%
S&P 500	5455.21	+20.78
		+0.38%
NASDAQ	17192.60	+4.99
		+0.03%
TSX	22760.01	+141.83
		+0.63%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36442.43	+209.92
		+0.58%
HANG SENG	17113.36	-60.70
		-0.35%
SENSEX	79105.88	+149.85
		+0.19%
FTSE 100*	8281.05	+45.82
		+0.56%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.024	3.031
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.113	3.130
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.8352	3.8428
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.1250	4.1584

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7290	0.7295
US $	1.3718	1.3709

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5104	0.6621
US $	1.1012	0.9081

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2471.55	2450.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	76.98	78.35

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1935, the Social Security Act was signed into law, ensuring some retirement income for all working Americans. Payroll taxes were set at 1%, for both workers and employers, on the first $3,000 of earnings.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fifth day, climbing 0.6%, or 141.83 to 22,760.01 in Toronto. The index advanced to the highest closing level since July 31.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.5%. Element Fleet Management Corp. had the largest increase, rising 5.6%.
Today, 148 of 226 shares rose, while 72 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights 
* The index advanced 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.9% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 21.8% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 4% in the past 5 days and rose 0.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 on a trailing basis and 15.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.6t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.53% compared with 14.85% in the previous session and the average of 12.12% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 63.7086| 0.9| 24/3
Information Technology | 35.4282| 1.9| 7/3
Energy | 27.7388| 0.7| 34/5
Industrials | 25.4659| 0.8| 18/10
Consumer Staples | 5.3030| 0.5| 8/3
Utilities | 3.3073| 0.4| 10/4
Consumer Discretionary | 1.5129| 0.2| 5/8
Health Care | 1.1891| 1.9| 4/0
Real Estate | 0.5448| 0.1| 13/5
Communication Services | -3.8040| -0.5| 2/3
Materials | -18.5643| -0.7| 23/28
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD |Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 20.1100| 2.5| -33.5| -4.8
RBC | 13.6400| 0.9| -38.9| 13.1
Brookfield Corp | 11.3800| 1.8| -31.5| 19.5
Telus | -2.5790| -1.1| 62.3| -6.9
Nutrien | -2.6960| -1.2| -23.2| -15.6
Franco-Nevada | -14.4200| -6.3| 194.5| 9.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose after an in-line US inflation report did little to alter bets the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in September.
The S&P 500 extended its advance into a fifth straight day, the longest winning streak in more than month. Most of its major groups gained, with financial, energy and tech shares leading the charge. Treasuries saw small moves. The dollar remained at a
four-month low.
The consumer price index reinforced the trend of disinflation and brought a degree of relief to markets still reeling after last week’s meltdown. Combined with a softening job market, the Fed is widely expected to start lowering rates next month, while the size of the cut will likely be determined by incoming data.
“It may not have been as cool as yesterday’s PPI, but today’s as-expected CPI likely will not rock the boat,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. “Now the primary question is whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points next month. If most of the data over the next five weeks points to a slowing economy, the Fed may cut more aggressively.”
At Evercore, Krishna Guha said the CPI was not perfect, but it was good enough as it was consistent with a tame read on the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. In addition, the central bank has disavowed data-point dependence, and is looking at the wider
outlook and balance of risks.
“This is now a labor data-first Fed, not an inflation data- first Fed, and the incoming labor data will determine how aggressively the Fed pulls forward rate cuts,” Guha noted.
The S&P 500 hovered near 5,455. Mega caps were mixed, with Nvidia Corp. up and Alphabet Inc. down. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – the VIX – continued to subside, dropping to around 16.
That’s after an unprecedented spike that took the gauge above 65 last week.
Treasury 10-year yields fell one basis point to 3.83%. Swap traders are pricing in less than 35 basis points of Fed easing in September.
At Nationwide, Mark Hackett says “calming macro fears” are among the factor providing an improved backdrop for equities.
The stress of the market decline is a “fading memory,” he noted.
The latest consumer price report checks the box for the Fed to start cutting rates in September, according to TD Securities’ strategists led by Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg.
“Today’s CPI report is again unambiguously welcome news for the Federal Reserve,” they said. “As risks have become truly two-sided for the US economy, if not slightly tilted toward downward employment outcomes, we expect the Fed’s upcoming
decision to come down to the magnitude of the first rate cut.”
To Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance, the July CPI print is the ultimate “no news, is good news” because the markets have been on edge and the Fed is looking to cut interest rates — and nothing in this report should deter them
from doing so.
At Principal Asset Management, Seema Shah says the CPI print removes any lingering inflation obstacles that may have been preventing the Fed from starting the rate cutting cycle in September. Yet, the number also suggests limited urgency for a
50 basis-point cut.
“It offers little new information to guide the future decisions of the Fed, aside from potentially supporting a rate cut due to job market concerns,” according to Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
“The soft CPI report will likely give Fed officials modestly more confidence that inflation is on the way down,” said Anna Wong and Stuart Paul at Bloomberg Economics. “Even though July’s core PCE inflation print won’t be as good, we expect the Fed to cut rates in September due to the rising unemployment rate.”
Traders are still pricing in just over 1 percentage point worth of rate reductions in 2024, with three Fed policy meetings remaining this year. In recent sessions, market pricing had shown a split on the outcome of either 25 or 50 basis points
worth of rate reductions next month.
“The inflation data has been good enough to allow the Fed to start cutting rates in September, but does not give them a reason to cut aggressively,” said Brian Rose at UBS Global Wealth Management. “The decision whether to cut by 50 basis
points instead of the usual 25 basis points may come down to the August labor report.”
Rose also notes that Thursday’s retail sales data is another critical release as the main downside risk to his base- case scenario of a soft landing is a pullback in consumer spending.
“The US economy is sustainably cooling, and the labor market is exhibiting a bit of slowing,” said Neil Sun, a BlueBay portfolio manager at RBC Global Asset Management. “However, we are not overly concerned over US recession risks in the short-
term. We stand ready to thoughtfully capitalize on any pockets of volatility should underlying trends of cooling inflation and sustainably slowing US economy continue.”

Corporate Highlights:
* UBS Group AG posted higher than expected profit in the second quarter, as investment banking revenue and progress in integrating Credit Suisse helped bolster Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti’s efforts to return capital to shareholders.
* Apple Inc., seeking new sources of revenue, is moving forward with development of a pricey tabletop home device that combines an iPad-like display with a robotic limb.
* Southwest Airlines Co. said it remained confident in its current leadership team after Elliott Investment Management proposed replacing a majority of directors on the struggling airline’s board in a looming proxy battle.
* Alaska Air Group Inc. and Hawaiian Holdings Inc. said they will again extend closing their proposed $1.9 billion deal to give US antitrust enforcers more time to discuss a potential settlement.
* Mars Inc. has secured the biggest blue-chip debt financing for a merger and acquisition in nearly a year to help finance its $36 billion purchase of Kellanova.

Key events this week:
* China home prices, retail sales, industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, retail sales, industrial production, Thursday
* Fed’s Alberto Musalem and Patrick Harker speak, Thursday
* US housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1013
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2829
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 147.36 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $59,026.84
* Ether fell 0.9% to $2,674
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.83%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.18%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 3.82%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $77.18 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $2,447.18 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg
Automation.

–With assistance from John Viljoen, Sujata Rao, Winnie Hsu,
Chiranjivi Chakraborty and Rob Verdonck.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel. –Maya Angelou, 1928-2014.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

 

Tangents:

August 13, 1521: Spanish conquistador Hernán Cortés captured Tenochtitlán, ending the Aztec empire and winning Mexico for Spain.

On Aug. 13, 1961, Berlin was divided as East Germany sealed off the border between the city’s eastern and western sectors in order to halt the flight of refugees. Go to article >>

 

Today in History: In 1792, French revolutionaries arrested and imprisoned King Louis XVI

 

Alfred Hitchcock, b. 1899.

Fidel Castro, b. 1926.

 

Olympic photography: AP photographers share their favorite Olympic photos

California quake: Earthquake felt from LA to San Diego, swaying buildings and knocking items off shelves

 

Data shows evidence of a water reservoir on Mars
Data collected from a retired NASA mission suggests there may be enough water beneath the surface of Mars to cover the red planet.

 

Tour de France Femmes is underway
This year’s edition features the world’s top riders, many of whom just competed in the women’s road race at the Paris Olympics. Gosh, they must be tire-d.

 

‘This could be the origin of the Atlantis legend’: Mountain that sank beneath the waves discovered off Canary Islands

A large seamount with three inactive volcanoes that sank into the ocean millions of years ago off the coast of Lanzarote may have inspired the legend of Atlantis. Read More.

 

Buddhas of Bamiyan: The colossal twin statues that stood sentinel over Afghanistan — until the Taliban destroyed them

The twin Buddha statues stood sentinel over a valley in Afghanistan until being destroyed by the Taliban. Now all that’s left are two cavities. Read More.

 

Enormous hidden ocean discovered under Mars could contain life

Scientists examining data from NASA’s InSight Lander have revealed the likely presence of an underground reservoir containing enough liquid to cover the planet with a mile of water. Read More.

 

‘Severe’ G4 geomagnetic storm strikes Earth, making widespread auroras likely

Earth was hit by a “severe” G4-class geomagnetic storm on Monday morning, increasing the chances of auroras in the northern U.S. tonight. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A humpback whale pictured during a scientific expedition off the coast of Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil

Photograph: Pablo Porciúncula/AFP/Getty Images

Gaborone, Botswana

Dancers wait at the airport to greet Botswana’s Olympic gold medallist Letsile Tebogo, who won the men’s 200 metres athletics event at the Paris Games

Photograph: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images

Jakarta, Indonesia

Market traders prepare national flags and decorations for the country’s independence anniversary

Photograph: Tatan Syuflana/AP

Market Closes for August 13^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39765.64	+408.63
		+1.04%
S&P 500	5434.43	+90.04
		+1.68%
NASDAQ	17187.61	+407.00
		+2.43%
TSX	22618.18	+219.25
		+0.98%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	36232.51	+1207.51
		+3.45%
HANG SENG	17174.06	+62.41
		+0.36%
SENSEX	78956.03	-692.89
		-0.87%
FTSE 100*	8235.23	+24.98
		+0.30%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.031	3.084
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.130	3.165
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.8428	3.9035
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.1584	4.2003

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7295	0.7278
US $	1.3709	1.3741

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5074	0.6634
US $	1.0996	0.9094

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2450.85	2427.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.35	80.06

Market Commentary:

📈 On this day in 1979, BusinessWeek’s cover proclaimed THE DEATH OF EQUITIES: “Only the elderly, who have not understood the changes in the nation’s financial markets, or who are unable to adjust to them, are sticking with stocks.”

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 1%, or 219.25 to 22,618.18 in Toronto. The index advanced to the highest closing level since Aug. 1.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 169 of 226 shares rose, while 54 fell.
Constellation Software Inc/Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.5%. SSR Mining Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.7%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 20 times. The next day, it advanced 13 times for an average 0.7% and declined seven times for an average 0.7%
* The index advanced 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.5% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 21% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.9% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.56t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.85% compared with 14.62% in the previous session and the average of 12.00% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 90.2269| 1.3| 25/2
Information Technology | 43.8213| 2.4| 9/1
Materials | 20.4420| 0.7| 40/12
Consumer Staples | 19.6224| 2.0| 11/0
Energy | 15.9878| 0.4| 23/17
Industrials | 13.5514| 0.5| 19/8
Consumer Discretionary | 11.4519| 1.5| 11/2
Utilities | 6.1722| 0.7| 12/3
Real Estate | 3.5446| 0.7| 13/6
Health Care | 0.5393| 0.8| 3/1
Communication Services | -6.0916| -0.8| 3/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD | Index | | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Constellation Software | 19.0300| 3.5| -5.5| 24.7
Brookfield Corp | 17.0700| 2.8| -0.9| 17.4
Shopify | 16.3900| 2.1| -39.1| -7.1
Ivanhoe Mines | -1.2930| -2.0| -17.1| 19.5
Telus | -3.4040| -1.5| 106.7| -5.8
BCE | -3.6330| -1.2| 11.1| -9.4

US

By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rallied and bond yields fell after the latest US inflation reading reinforced speculation the Federal Reserve will be able to deploy its widely anticipated interest-rate cut in September.
Just 24 hours ahead of the consumer inflation report, data showed the producer price index rose less than forecast.
Categories in the PPI report used to calculate the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — the personal consumption expenditures price index — were generally tame. The S&P 500 climbed 1.7%, led by gains in the world’s largest technology companies. Treasuries rose across the curve, with the move driven by shorter maturities. The dollar fell.
“Markets searching for stability got more evidence of cooling inflation,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. “The lower-than-expected reading will probably be welcomed by a stock market attempting to bounce from its biggest
pullback of the year.”
The easing of price pressures has bolstered confidence US officials can start lowering borrowing costs while refocusing on the labor market, which is showing greater signs of slowing. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he’s looking for
“a little more data” before supporting a reduction in rates, while reiterating he’ll likely be ready to cut “by the end of the year.”
To Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets, there isn’t anything in Tuesday’s data suggesting the Fed will have any hesitation cutting rates next month.
“That said, tomorrow’s consumer inflation update is far more relevant to near-term policy expectations,” he noted.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed 52% of investors expect the reaction to Wednesday’s consumer price index to be “risk-on.” However, the percentage of respondents expecting a “recession” has stayed elevated.
The S&P 500 saw its biggest four-day rally this year. The Nasdaq 100 climbed 2.5%. The Russell 2000 of smaller firms rose 1.6%. Nvidia Corp. led gains in mega caps. Starbucks Corp. surged by a record 25% after ousting its chief and picking Chipotle
Mexican Grill Inc.’s Brian Niccol as its next leader. Wall Street’s favorite volatility gauge — the VIX — tumbled to around 18. 
Treasury 10-year yields fell six basis points to 3.85%.
Swap traders priced in a nearly 40 basis-point Fed cut in September and a total rate reduction of roughly 105 basis points for 2024. Oil halted a five-day surge.
“Disinflationary data is being celebrated by investors — not for its signaling of a slowing economy here in the US — but to solidify improving liquidity conditions ahead via the much anticipated rate cuts starting presumably in September,” according to Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
Interestingly enough, the disinflationary data that triggered the “great rotation” last month is not having the same effect after the latest PPI. Big tech is outperforming small caps on Tuesday as evidenced by the exchange-traded funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the Russell 2000 (IWN).
While conditions remain “oversold enough” to capitalize on a favorable CPI print on Wednesday, Wantrobski says he hasn’t seen any signals that negate or cancel the “correction cycle” which began in earnest around Aug. 1.  “Continue to expect a very bumpy ride over the short run, in our opinion,” he concluded.
The volatility in global financial markets hasn’t derailed investor optimism around US technology behemoths or expectations of a soft economic landing, according to a global survey by Bank of America Corp.
While the poll, conducted from Aug. 2 to Aug. 8 and covering the height of last week’s turmoil, showed a defensive rotation into bonds and cash and out of equities, long bets on the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps remained the most crowded trade
— albeit less so after the selloff.  
“Core optimism on soft landing and US large cap growth stocks is unbowed,” strategist Michael Hartnett wrote. It’s “just that investors now think the Fed needs to cut harder to guarantee no recession.”
Tech stocks had been at the forefront of the recent rout in global financial markets amid worries about high valuations at a time when the US economy has shown some signs of cooling. 
At Citigroup Inc., Chris Montagu said US technology stocks remain under “significant pressure” as investor positioning continues extended on the bullish side despite the past month’s selloff.
“On any negative economic data, there will be significant pressure on these long positions,” Montagu wrote. “That, in turn, could amplify any down moves from here in the near term.”
BofA clients were net buyers of US equities for the first time in more than a month last week, snapping up shares during the rout and subsequent recovery. Institutional investors led net purchases of $5.8 billion in US stocks as hedge funds and
retail investors offloaded shares, Jill Carey Hall said.
At a sector level, technology and communications services recorded the largest inflows for the week and on cumulative year-to-date basis, she said.
“Our client flows have tended to weaken in the fall months,” Carey Hall noted, adding she expects continued equity volatility heading into the US election.
Chances of a full-fledged stock market rout are low, even though poor seasonality and a murky growth outlook are likely to limit US equity gains through the rest of the quarter, according to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson.
“I find it hard to believe we’re going to break out back toward the highs,” he said Tuesday in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “I also don’t think we’re going to completely break down in a way that would argue that we’re entering a new bear market.”
“While stocks seem to have stabilized, I do believe there is nervousness in the air, which is likely to lead to higher volatility and the potential for outsized reactions to data and developments,” said Kristina Hooper at Invesco.
To Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance, this is a “pivotal week” for data following on the heels of the “mini-panic” in the beginning of August.
“If tomorrow’s CPI report comes in lower than expected, like this morning’s PPI report did, then the Fed truly has a green light to cut rates by 50 basis points at their next meeting if they deem it necessary to quickly get back to neutral in the face of a looming slowdown in the economy, he noted.
In the wake the market maelstrom that briefly sparked fear across Wall Street last week, financial markets are flashing a higher probability of an oncoming recession.
It still remains an outside chance. But models from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. show that the market- implied odds of an economic downturn has risen materially, judging by signals in the US bond market and to a lesser extent the performance of stocks that are acutely sensitive to the ebbs and flows of the business cycle.
The producer price index for final demand increased 0.1% from a month earlier. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2% gain. Compared with a year ago, the PPI rose 2.2%. Excluding the volatile food and energy
categories, it was unchanged in July from the prior month — the tamest reading in four months.
“The runway is clear for the Fed to cut rates in September,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group. “If data like this persists, the Fed will have plenty of room to cut rates further this year.”
At Evercore, Krishna Guha said there’s “nothing threatening” in the latest PPI data.
“The larger point here is that we are past the point at which a few basis points here or there on month-over-month inflation will have any material bearing on Fed policy and the rate outlook, which at this juncture will be driven overwhelmingly by the labor market data,” Guha said.
David Russell at TradeStation says PPI data gave gives further evidence that the tide has turned on inflation, especially in services. 
“This process could continue or accelerate in coming months as weakness in China weighs on commodity prices. Jerome Powell has a lot to feel good about going into Jackson Hole,” he said.
The Fed Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming will be held Aug. 22-24.
Corporate Highlights:
* Home Depot Inc. lowered its forecast of a key sales metric for the year on expectations that consumers will continue to hold back spending in the coming months.
* Boeing Co.’s commercial aircraft deliveries are showing signs of stabilizing, with deliveries in July mirroring those in the same month a year earlier.
* Paramount Global began laying off staff Tuesday after the entertainment company said last week it planned to slash 15% of its US-based workforce, amounting to roughly 2,000 positions.
* General Motors Co. has been laying off staff in China and will soon meet with local partner SAIC to plan a larger structural overhaul of its operations there, a recognition the Detroit automaker is unlikely to see its sales return to 2017 peak levels.
* Baxter International Inc. said it will sell its kidney-care unit to the Carlyle Group private equity firm for $3.8 billion, part of the health care company’s efforts to streamline and pay down debt.
* Avon Products Inc., owner of the beauty brand known for its door-to-door saleswomen, filed for bankruptcy after facing a wave of lawsuits alleging talc in its products caused cancer.
* Illumina Inc.’s plan to increase sales through easier DNA sequencing and improved data analysis failed to excite investors, with targets short of earlier growth rates.
* Kroger Co. and Albertsons Cos. have spent more than $800 million on fees to lawyers, bankers and advisers for their proposed merger, underscoring the high costs of trying to complete the largest ever tie-up between two US grocery chains.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone GDP, industrial production, Wednesday
* US CPI, Wednesday
* China home prices, retail sales, industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, retail sales, industrial production, Thursday
* Fed’s Alberto Musalem and Patrick Harker speak, Thursday
* US housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 3.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.6% to $1.0996
* The British pound rose 0.8% to $1.2866
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 146.85 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.4% to $60,850.63
* Ether rose 1.2% to $2,712.82
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 3.85%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.19%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.89%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.9% to $78.51 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,467.08 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

 

Be magnificent!

As ever,

 

Carolann

At times our own light goes out and is rekindled by a spark from another person.

Each of us has cause to think with deep gratitude of those who have lighted the flame within us. –Albert Schweitzer, 1875-1965.

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Senior Investment Advisor

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

Tel: 778.430.5808

(C): 250.881.0801

Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895

Fax: 778.430.5828

www.carolannsteinhoff.com

 

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  UN World Youth Day.

August 12, 1981: IBM sintroduced its first personal computer, the model 5150.  Go to article >>

1676: King Philip assassinated.
1851: Sewing machine invented.

William Goldberg, author: b. 1931.
George Soros, financier, b. 1930.
Cecil B. DeMille, director, b.1881.

Celine Dion criticizes Trump campaign for unauthorized use of her music
Singer Celine Dion shared this cheeky statement after learning the Trump campaign has used her ballad “My Heart Will Go On” at multiple rallies.

Celine Dion criticizes Trump campaign for unauthorized use of her music
Singer Celine Dion shared this cheeky statement after learning the Trump campaign has used her ballad “My Heart Will Go On” at multiple rallies.

New England Patriots win first game without Bill Belichick in 24 years
The New England Patriots won their first game in 24 years without legendary coach Bill Belichick in charge, beating the Carolina Panthers 17-3 in their opening preseason game.

Disney dropped huge theme park announcements
The company announced a slew of theme park projects to be developed in the coming years, including an ominous land dedicated to Disney villains. 

‘Lord, make them die an awful death’: Prisoner’s dark pleas found etched into Roman-era prison
An archaeologist has identified the rare remains of a Roman prison in Corinth, Greece. Read More.

Fossils from Greenland’s icy heart reveal it was a green tundra covered in flowers less than 1 million years ago
Greenland was almost completely ice-free at some point in the last one million years, fossilized flowers from a core sample taken from the center of the island reveal. Read More.

Cannabis use linked to head and neck cancer risk
A new study that looked at 20 years of medical data from millions of people found a link between cannabis use and specific cancers. Read More.

Google DeepMind can beat humans at table tennis
Google’s DeepMind has been used to train a robot arm to play table tennis, and it beat human players. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
New York, US
The northern lights illuminate the sky during a Perseid meteor shower
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
London, UK
People swim in the Sky Pool, which is suspended 35 metres above ground between two apartment buildings
Photograph: James Manning/PA

Dr. Dre and Snoop perform at the LA28 Olympic Games Handover Celebration.
Photograph: Emma McIntyre/Getty Images for LA28
Market Closes for August 12^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39357.01	-140.53
		-0.36%
S&P 500	5344.39	+0.23
		—
NASDAQ	16780.61	+35.31
		+0.21%
TSX	22398.93	+87.63
		+0.39%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	35025.00	+193.85
		+0.56%
HANG SENG	17111.65	+21.42
		+0.13%
SENSEX	79648.92	-56.99
		-0.07%
FTSE 100*	8210.25	+42.15
		+0.52%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.084	3.114
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.165	3.183
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.9035	3.9398
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.2003	4.2186

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7278	0.7281
US $	1.3741	1.3735

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5022	0.6657
US $	1.0933	0.9147

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2427.35	2411.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.06	76.84

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1920, Charles Ponzi was arrested in Boston for fraud. He repaid each $1,000 invested with $1,500 just 90 days later, but only by taking more money from newcomers, or, as a judge later put it, “robbing Peter to pay Paul.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.4%, or 87.63 to 22,398.93 in Toronto. The index advanced to the highest closing level since Aug. 1.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 3 of 11 sectors gained; 126 of 226 shares rose, while 98 fell.
Barrick Gold Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 9.4%. Osisko Mining Inc. had the largest increase, rising 62.9%.
Insights
* The index advanced 9.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.5% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 19.8% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.8% in the past 5 days and fell 1.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 on a trailing basis and 15.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.55t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 14.62% compared with 14.63% in the previous session and the average of 11.82% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 95.0434| 3.5| 46/5
Energy | 69.5321| 1.7| 36/5
Consumer Staples | 2.2302| 0.2| 5/6
Health Care | -0.2020| -0.3| 1/3
Consumer Discretionary | -1.0241| -0.1| 5/8
Communication Services | -2.0388| -0.3| 2/3
Real Estate | -3.1454| -0.6| 1/18
Utilities | -3.7745| -0.4| 6/9
Industrials | -5.9290| -0.2| 10/18
Information Technology | -28.6250| -1.5| 2/8
Financials | -34.4353| -0.5| 12/15
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD |Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Barrick Gold | 27.4800| 9.4| 100.7| 9.2
Canadian Natural Resources | 19.1800| 2.7| -19.4| 13.1
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited/Limitee | 12.5300| 3.5| 12.9| 45.1
RBC | -10.6800| -0.7| -43.7| 11.0
Constellation Software| -15.9000| -2.8| -23.6| 20.5
Bank of Nova Scotia | -18.7300| -3.4| 55.4| -4.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks struggled for direction ahead of US inflation data, with the latest geopolitical developments curbing the appetite for risk.
Just a week after the panic selling that shook trading around the globe, the S&P 500 was flat. With Wall Street still reeling from last Monday’s wild gyrations, many investors are refraining from making big bets as they await more signals about the health of the world’s largest economy. Oil hit $80 and bonds gained as the US believes an Iranian attack against Israel is increasingly likely.
To Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management, it’s a good time for investors to “take stock” of how far key markets have moved. “Volatility could return this week,” she said. “If inflation is too low, this may heighten concerns that the US may be heading for a recession. If inflation is too high, it could encourage fears that the Federal Reserve may be unable to cut rates quickly enough to protect the economy. Geopolitical risks also remain elevated.”
The S&P 500 hovered around 5,345. Most major groups fell, though tech, energy and utilities gained. The Russell 2000 of small caps extended its August slide to 8.5%. The Cboe Volatility Index — the VIX — edged mildly higher — after an unprecedented spike last week.
Cboe Global Markets Inc. acknowledged that thin trading premarket played a role in the VIX’s violent move last Monday — but said its surge was justified by the mounting angst over the contagion risk emanating from a crash in Japanese currency and
stocks, which led to the yen carry-trade unwinding.
“When the world feels uneasy, people feel less inclined to take risks,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management. “But fear can be a healthy dynamic for a market that thrives on clearing low hurdles. When it turns out that bad news isn’t as bad as people think, they pile back in.”
To Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services, following past volatility shocks, we tend to see wide swings in both directions, and the repair process typically takes time.
“Indeed, after such a sharp move down, there tends to be a battle between fear and greed,” Lerner said. “There is fear of more downside, which causes some investors to continue to sell on any bounce, and then greed on the other side, where those
investors who were waiting for a pullback wade in.”
Notably, to gain further confidence, investors will be waiting for some of the higher profile reports/events like Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole and Nvidia Corp.’s results this month. In the interim, each economic report will likely be overly scrutinized, he said.
US inflation probably picked up modestly in July, but not enough to derail the Federal Reserve from a widely anticipated interest-rate cut next month.
The consumer price index on Wednesday is expected to have risen 0.2% from June for both the headline figure and the so-called core gauge that excludes food and energy. Yet the annual metrics should continue to rise at some of the slowest paces
seen since early 2021. The producer price index — due a day before the CPI — will be scrutinized for categories that feed through to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
“Investors will be looking for the numbers to land in a sweet spot,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
After last week’s turmoil, markets will be focused on Wednesday’s US CPI to see if the Fed will have a freer or more constrained hand in refocusing on the labor market and front- loading rate cuts sufficiently to secure a “soft landing,” according to Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“But do not panic if CPI is on the hotter side,” Guha noted. “This is now a labor-data first Fed, not an inflation- data first Fed, that is less data-point dependent, more forward- looking. We think if coming labor data stays soft, the Fed will still be forward-leaning on cuts.”
During the most-recent turmoil, investors slashed equity allocations at the sharpest pace since the onset of the pandemic, according to Deutsche Bank AG. An analysis of previous growth scares suggests that stock correlations and volatility will “will only gradually recede back to ‘normal,’” said Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin.
If economic worries abate, “then the recent selloff represents an opportunity to buy stocks with healthy fundamentals at valuation discounts,” he wrote.
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson says a double whammy of economic uncertainty and a weak period for corporate earnings forecasts is likely to cap stock market gains.
The strategist — among the most notable bearish voices on US equities until last year — said he expects the S&P 500 to trade in a range of 5,000 to 5,400 points as macroeconomic data flash no clear signals over the short term.
The risk-reward for stock markets remains mixed over the summer months against the backdrop of weakening business activity and negative earnings revisions, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Mislav Matejka.
“Fed will start cutting, but this might not drive a sustained leg higher, as the cuts might be seen as reactive, and behind the curve,” they wrote.
Investors will have a brief window to buy the dip in US stocks at the end of this month as selling pressure from systematic funds eases while companies boost share buybacks, according to Scott Rubner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“This will be my last bearish equity markets call for August as we are ending the worst of the equity supply and demand mismatch for August,” Rubner wrote in a note to clients.
More near-term dips can’t be excluded if activity data surprise negatively, but investors should buy stocks on weakness as fundamentals are still supportive of risk assets, HSBC strategists say.
The team led by Max Kettner sees signs of stabilization after a significant volatility shock, with focus returning to fundamentals as the dust settles.
At least one indicator suggests that last Monday’s drama looks more like a minor meltdown than a harbinger of worse things to come.
Consider the Cboe Volatility Index and the option-adjusted spread on the Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index. Based on a long-term relationship between the two, the VIX’s close near 39 a week ago was supposed to correspond to a reading of 3.5% in
corporate bond spreads. Yet they ended much lower, near 1.32%.
The mismatch between the two suggests the recent downdraft was technical and not indicative of economic doom, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Christopher Cain and Michael Casper. In fact, such abnormal disconnects in the past have led to above-average returns for stocks over the next three-to-six months.
Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report says he doesn’t think fundamentals have deteriorated enough to warrant de-risking and reducing equity or risk exposure — but he also wants to caution against dismissing the recent uptick in volatility.
“Much of what I read over the weekend characterized this recent volatility as just a typical pullback in an upward- trending market,” Essaye. “Because of that, I continue to advocate for defensive sector exposure and minimum volatility funds.”
Corporate Highlights:
* Bank of Nova Scotia is making good on plans to invest more capital in the US with a $2.8 billion deal for a minority stake in KeyCorp, which was among the US regional banks hit hardest in last year’s tumult.
* Johnson & Johnson has cleared a key hurdle for advancing a $6.5 billion plan to resolve thousands of lawsuits by people who say its baby powder gave them cancer, according to people familiar with the matter.
* B. Riley Financial Inc. tumbled amid a new round of write-downs and a widening US investigation into whether it gave investors an accurate picture of its financial health.
* JetBlue Airways Corp. has kicked off a $2.75 billion bond-and- loan sale backed by its loyalty program as the carrier seeks to raise reserves and fund general corporate purposes.
* Eli Lilly & Co. sold $5 billion of bonds on Monday to help fund its $3.2 billion acquisition of gut-drug maker Morphic Holding Inc., after recession fears triggered a turbulent week.
* Vestas Wind Systems A/S issued a profit warning for its full- year results in a blow to the company’s effort to turn around steep losses in recent years.
Key events this week:
* Germany ZEW survey expectations, Tuesday
* US PPI, Tuesday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic speaks, Tuesday
* Eurozone GDP, industrial production, Wednesday
* US CPI, Wednesday
* China home prices, retail sales, industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, retail sales, industrial production, Thursday
* Fed’s Alberto Musalem and Patrick Harker speak, Thursday
* US housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in the market:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0931
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2768
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 147.16 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $59,061.29
* Ether rose 4.1% to $2,662.51
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 3.90%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.23%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.92%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.6% to $79.64 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.6% to $2,471.42 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg
Automation.

–With assistance from John Viljoen and Matthew Burgess.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Intuition is perception via the unconscious. -Carl Jung, 1875-1961.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
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