Category: Events

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
November 6, 1861: James Naismith, the inventor of basketball, was born in Ontario, Canada.  Go to article >>.
November 6,1989: The Ferlin Wall, separating East and West Germany, is opened after nearly three decades of division.

Adolphe Sax, saxophone inventor, b. 1814.
Sally Field, b.1946.

This is the most ‘inconvenient convenience store’
Take a look at this ironic convenience store hanging on a steep cliff in the Chinese province of Hunan.

National Geographic announces 2024 ‘cool list’
Looking to add to your travel bucket list? These 30 places and experiences are the epitome of “cool,” according to National Geographic Traveller.

Taylor Swift’s whirlwind year continues with her 13th No. 1 album
The pop star’s “1989 (Taylor’s Version),” the 2014 hit album she re-recorded and released last month, hit No. 1 on the Billboard 200 album chart in the first week of its release.

Here’s who won the New York City Marathon on Sunday
Ethiopia’s Tamirat Tola set a course record while Kenya’s Hellen Obiri won the women’s race. (Everyone else who ran, you’re still a winner in our eyes!)

Why does time slow down in near-death experiences?
Time can seem to slow down in near-death situations, and speed up as we age. Exactly how does our brain process time? Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Northumberland, UK
The aurora borealis, also known as the northern lights, appears over Bamburgh lighthouse on the north-east coast of England.  Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA.

Siberian Omsk region, Russia
A person stands on a car while looking at auroras, caused by a coronal mass ejection on the sun, that illuminate the skies.  Photograph: Alexey Malgavko/Reuters.

​​​​​​​Puteax, France
French skyscraper climber Alain Robert, nicknamed Spiderman, climbs the Tour TotalEnergies Coupole skyscraper in Puteaux, in the financial and business district of La Defense, to call for peace in the Middle East.  Photograph: Abdul Saboor/Reuters.
Market Closes for November 6^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34095.86	+34.54
		+0.10%
S&P 500	4365.98	+7.64
		+0.18%
NASDAQ	13518.78	+40.50
		+0.30%
TSX	19743.94	-80.91
		-0.41%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	32708.48	+758.59
		+2.37%
HANG SENG	17966.59	+302.47
		+1.71%
SENSEX	64958.69	+594.91
		+0.92%
FTSE 100*	7417.76	+0.03
		—

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.810	3.741
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.607	3.571
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6431	4.5724
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8085	4.7666

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7300	0.7320
US $	1.3699	1.3661

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4681	0.6812
US $	1.0717	0.9331

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1994.45	1983.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.82	80.51

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1851, Charles Henry Dow was born on his family’s farm in Sterling, Connecticut. After toiling as a reporter in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, he founded Dow, Jones & Co. in 1882, and devised the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 19,743.94 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.7% on Oct. 27 and follows the previous session’s increase of 1%.
Nutrien Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.1%.
Endeavour Silver Corp. had the largest drop, falling 5.5%.
Today, 161 of 227 shares fell, while 65 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 1.9%, heading for the best year since 2021
* The index advanced 1.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.3% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 5.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 4.7% in the past 5 days and rose 2.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 on a trailing basis and 14.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.14t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.65% compared with 15.60% in the previous session and the average of 14.30% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -26.2498| -0.7| 7/33
Materials | -22.5120| -1.0| 15/36
Information Technology | -10.6844| -0.7| 5/6
Financials | -9.7008| -0.2| 10/18
Real Estate | -6.5973| -1.4| 1/20
Industrials | -5.7088| -0.2| 8/18
Communication Services | -3.8836| -0.5| 0/5
Health Care | -1.3140| -2.3| 0/4
Utilities | -1.0677| -0.1| 7/8
Consumer Discretionary | 0.0863| 0.0| 5/9
Consumer Staples | 6.6994| 0.8| 7/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Nutrien | -10.9200| -4.1|n/a | -25.4
Brookfield Corp | -10.8800| -2.4|n/a | 4.2
Shopify | -10.6100| -1.5|n/a | 76.1
Dollarama | 2.6470| 1.4|n/a | 22.9
Fairfax Financial | 4.6820| 2.4|n/a | 56.3
TD Bank | 4.7460| 0.5|n/a | -7.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks struggled to gain much traction as bond yields rose, with traders betting the Federal Reserve will lean against the recent easing in financial conditions by saying it will keep its options open on policy.
After notching its best week of 2023 amid dovish Fed bets, oversold technical levels and positioning, the S&P 500 edged slightly higher on Monday.
A reversal of the moves in bonds also weighed on sentiment, with 10-year yields up eight basis points to 4.65%.
Treasuries slid amid a heavy slate of corporate debt sales and ahead of a series of auctions beginning Tuesday.
Wall Street waded through the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey — known as SLOOS — which showed tighter standards and weaker demand persist at US banks.
A raft of Fed officials — including Chair Jerome Powell — is due to speak over the next few days.
Swaps are pricing in more than 100 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2024 from an expected peak rate of 5.37%.
“There may be a reality check ahead on the Fed,” said David
Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US.
“We expect the rest of the year to be volatile, going through ‘manic-depressive swings’ based on where interest rates are headed.”
“The Fed is DONE, DONE, DONE,” wrote Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed-income at NatAlliance Securities. “June is a done deal for a cut, while the markets are building in four rate cuts for next year — expect the Fed to push back on that, if nothing else for optionality. Powell will try to claw back some of the easing of financial conditions.”
To Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, the question on whether the market momentum can be sustained comes down to upcoming economic numbers continuing to point in the same direction as last week’s jobs report, which showed the labor market slowed in October.
“If that cooling trend persists, bulls may embrace the idea that the Fed will grow less hawkish,” Larkin noted. “Regardless, the market has a tendency to pull back in the short term, at least temporarily, after exceptionally big moves like the one that unfolded last week.”
The S&P 500 currently sits at around 4,360 — and chartists are monitoring the 4,355 level, which marks a 50% retracement from the peak-to-trough decline from its July highs to October lows.
If it holds above that, the 4,400 level, where the index hovered during its mid-October highs, is the next number to watch, according to Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services.
“To reverse this downtrend, the S&P 500 still needs to break above 4,400,” said Lerner, whose firm is overweight US stocks.
The S&P 500’s best week in a year was just a bear-market rally, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
Citing a gloomy earnings outlook, weaker macro data and deteriorating analyst views, “we find it difficult to get more excited about a year-end rally,” he added.
Meantime, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic says equities will soon be unattractive to investors again as the prospect of sustained elevated interest rates and slowing growth come back in focus.
Falling bond yields and dovish central bank meetings were “knee-jerk positive for equities,” but the growth-policy tradeoff will remain challenging into year-end, he noted.
“The question we need to ask ourselves is whether the October breakdown was a ‘bear trap’,” said JC O’Hara, chief market technician at ROTH MKM. “If so, we should expect a swift move higher. If not, we should look to lighten exposure at current levels.”
To Jean Boivin at the research arm at BlackRock Inc., any year-end rally in stocks could prove short-lived because equities don’t fully reflect the outlook for rates remaining higher for longer.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries have tumbled since their 5.02% peak on Oct. 23 as traders for the $26 trillion bond market swung back to pricing the end of rate hikes.
The combination of more benign US refunding needs, weaker-than-expected jobs data and signs of the Fed turning less hawkish may have spurred widespread covering of short positions.
Leveraged funds ramped up net short Treasury futures positions to the most in data going back to 2006, according to an aggregate of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures as of Oct. 31.
The bets persisted even though the cash bonds had rallied the week before.
Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets, says the biggest issue on the minds of the equity investors her firm spoke with last week was whether 10-year Treasury yields have really peaked.
“Our view over the last month or so has been that if the surge in yields stopped soon, US equities could escape without incurring too much additional damage,” Calvasina added.  “November has typically been a good month for the S&P 500 from a seasonal perspective. December is also typically a good month, but, like October, there have been some difficult ones in recent history.”
Elsewhere, oil gained after Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed they will stick with oil supply curbs of more than 1 million barrels a day through the end of the year.
Gold declined after briefly climbing above $2,000 an ounce on Friday.

Corporate highlights:
* Tesla Inc. will produce a new model that will cost €25,000v($26,863) at its factory near Berlin, Reuters reported, as competition intensifies to produce more affordable electric vehicles for the European market.
* Tyson Foods Inc., the largest US meat producer, is recalling almost 30,000 pounds (13 metric tons) of chicken nuggets aimed at children due to possible contamination with metal pieces.
* Dish Network Corp. reported disappointing third-quarter revenue and a drop in wireless customers that was much worse than analysts predicted.
* Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s cash pile scaled a fresh record at $157.2 billion, bolstered both by elevated interest rates and a dearth of meaningful deals where billionaire investor Warren Buffett could put his money to work.
* Bumble Inc. Chief Executive Officer Whitney Wolfe Herd will step down from the company she founded nearly 10 years ago.
* Ryanair Holdings Plc will pay out a dividend of €400 million ($430 million) and plans to hand over about a quarter of annual profit to shareholders as Europe’s biggest discount airline benefits from growing traffic.

Key events this week:
* Australia rate decision, Tuesday
* China trade, forex reserves, Tuesday
* Eurozone PPI, Tuesday
* US trade, Tuesday
* UBS earnings, Tuesday
* Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and his Dallas counterpart Lorie Logan speak, Tuesday
* Eurozone retail sales, Wednesday
* Germany CPI, Wednesday
* BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks, Wednesday
* US wholesale inventories, Wednesday
* New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan issues October summary of opinions, Thursday
* BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks on the economy, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in panel on monetary policy challenges at the IMF’s annual research conference in Washington, Thursday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and his Richmond counterpart Tom Barkin speak, Thursday
* UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in fireside chat, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and her Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0720
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2344
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 150.00 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1% to $35,035.41
* Ether rose 1.4% to $1,895.19
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced eight basis points to 4.65%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 2.74%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.38%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $80.86 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $1,978.26 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Farah Elbahrawy, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Ruth Carson and David Finnerty.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann

The human being is born with an incurable capacity for making the best of things. –Helen Keller, 1880-1968.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!
Carolann is away from the office; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Pluto may have a ‘supervolcano’ the size of Yellowstone
Kiladze Caldera, formerly called Kiladze crater, may be a supervolcano that erupted fairly recently, spewing ice across the surface of Pluto.

Rodents show signs of imagination while playing VR games
Rats immersed in a VR world played games that could be won only by using imaginative route planning, scientists report.

Watch a huge megapod of acrobatic spinner dolphins in incredible, rare video
A megapod of dolphins with thousands of individuals has been captured on video hunting flying fish off the coast of Costa Rica.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The Needle – classic view winner
Isle of Skye, Scotland. “A classic point of view, but this is an incredible place, for sure. This morning in November I decided to explore the entire area of the Quiraing and, of course. the famous needle was on my list.” Photograph: Julien Delaval/Landscape Photographer of the Year

Loch an Eilein Castle – bird’s eye
view winner Aerial view of spectacular late autumn colours and reflections of clouds around a ruined castle on the island on Loch an Eilein, on the Rothiemurchus estate in Cairngorms national park near Aviemore in the Scottish Highlands Photograph: Iain Masterton/Landscape Photographer of the Year

​​​​​​​A shy bank vole at the entrance to a pipe on the edge of a woodland pool, in Corwen, north Wales. At only 4in long, it’s one of our smallest vole species
Photograph: Richard Bowler/SWNS
Market Closes for November 3^rd, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	34061.32	+222.24
		+0.66%
S&P 500	4358.34	+40.56
		+0.94%
NASDAQ	13478.29	+184.10
		+1.38%
TSX	19824.85	+198.51
		+1.01%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	31949.89	+348.24
		+1.10%
HANG SENG	17664.12	+433.53
		+2.52%
SENSEX	64363.78	+282.88
		+0.44%
FTSE 100*	7417.73	-28.80
		-0.39%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.741	3.854
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.571	3.641
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.5724	4.6590
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7666	4.8008

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7320	0.7278
US $	1.3661	1.3740

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4671	0.6816
US $	1.0737	0.9314

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1983.60	1986.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.51	82.46

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1948—the day after Harry Truman defeated Thomas Dewey in the U.S. presidential election—the Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped by nearly 4% to 182.46 on the belief that Truman would be too soft on Communism.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fifth day, climbing 1%, or 198.51 to 19,824.85 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Sept. 20.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 179 of 227 shares rose, while 47 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.4%.
Jamieson Wellness Inc. had the largest increase, rising 13.3%.
Terminal users can read more in our markets live blog.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 17 times. The next day, it advanced 11 times for an average 0.7% and declined six times for an average 0.5%
* This year, the index rose 2.3%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index rose 5.8%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended April 10
* The index advanced 3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.9% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 6.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 on a trailing basis and 14 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.11t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.60% compared with 15.29% in the previous session and the average of 14.24% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 78.6338| 1.3| 26/2
Materials | 57.5205| 2.6| 46/6
Industrials | 30.9064| 1.2| 23/3
Information Technology | 26.3516| 1.7| 10/1
Communication Services | 13.9764| 1.8| 4/1
Real Estate | 13.5935| 3.0| 21/0
Consumer Discretionary | 12.7505| 1.8| 13/1
Health Care | 1.4918| 2.7| 4/0
Consumer Staples | 0.6314| 0.1| 10/1
Utilities | -0.1243| 0.0| 11/4
Energy | -37.2227| -1.0| 11/28
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 16.5400| 2.4|n/a | 78.8
TD Bank | 15.0100| 1.5|n/a | -7.6
Brookfield Corp | 13.2200| 3.0|n/a | 6.7
Couche-Tard | -6.2260| -1.5|n/a | 29.1
Suncor Energy | -7.6870| -1.8|n/a | 7.4
Canadian Natural | | | |
Resources | -13.2800| -1.9|n/a | 21.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose and bond yields fell as signals of cooling in both the labor market and services reinforced the idea that the Federal Reserve is done with rate hikes — while bolstering bets on cuts as early as June.
All across Wall Street, the superlatives piled up Friday, with the S&P 500 climbing almost 1% and notching its best week of 2023.
The market’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — saw its biggest weekly plunge since December 2021.
Treasuries rallied, with two-year yields down 15 basis points to 4.84%.
The dollar slid the most since July.
Oil sank below $81 as the risk premium from the Israel-Hamas war vanished.
Fed swaps now show traders see an only 16% chance of another hike by January, and have fully priced in a cut by June — instead of July.
The US service sector expanded at the weakest pace in five months, job growth moderated and the unemployment rate climbed to 3.9%.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 150,000 last month following a downwardly revised 297,000 in September.
Wage growth slowed.
“The US economy showed its first cracks, but markets decided not to care,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Asset Management in Switzerland. “For now, all is well — and ‘bull is cool’ looks liberating for a considerable number of investors, be it on the equity or on the bonds’ side.”
To George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank, the latest trends only validate the Fed’s decision to pause this week.
“They also underline a ‘not too hot/not too cold’ backdrop — which will be welcomed news by investors who, up until recently, had been concerned about things overheating,” he added.
October’s pace of slower net hiring should give Fed officials room to maintain their pause in interest rate policy as they await further progress on inflation, said Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise, who currently believes the the Fed is done raising rates.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted Wednesday to hold interest rates at a 22-year high for a second straight meeting.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it’s an open question whether the central bank would need to hike again, and that it’s “proceeding carefully,” an assessment that’s often suggested a reluctance to raise rates in the near term.
Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic told Bloomberg Television that policymakers have time to watch how the economy is evolving and be patient when it comes to interest-rate moves.
Separately, his Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari said that while a slowdown in hiring is welcome news for the central bank, he doesn’t want to overreact to just one month of data.
Richmond Fed chief Thomas Barkin had similar thoughts on the latest jobs figures, saying that his view on whether to hike again will depend more on inflation reports.
“The Federal Reserve could not realistically have hoped for a better jobs report today, but it will need to be one of a number of positive economic reports over the coming months before it’s ready to declare victory,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.
Helped by a growing sense that the Fed’s aggressive rate-hiking regime may be over, the S&P 500 ascended rapidly this week.
And Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett says technical factors no longer stand in the way of a year-end rally in stocks.
The bank’s in-house sentiment gauge, the Bull & Bear Indicator, is flashing a contrarian buy signal for a third straight week amid poor equity market breadth — a reference to the number of stocks rising — and large outflows from high-yield and emerging-market bonds, the strategist wrote in a note.
The indicator has slid to 1.4, below the 2 level that BofA says implies a buy signal.
Meantime, BofA’s Savita Subramanian says the S&P 500 offers a better entry point now relative to its July peak — and “the probability of a positive surprise in higher beta stocks is high,” while noting that the frequency of clients asking whether they should wait to buy equities has increased.
“Extreme fear can be just as costly as greed,” she wrote.
While the stock market has enjoyed a powerful rebound this week, lurking beneath the euphoric surface are still fears about Corporate America’s profit outlook.
Among companies that have issued guidance this earnings season for next quarter and beyond, more have been providing estimates that trail analysts’ expectations.
A gauge of forward guidance that compares corporate forecasts with the Wall Street consensus has been lower only once since 2019, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.
The litany of bullish calls for both the stock and bond markets that have been resounding should be an obvious signal that investor sentiment (at best) remains neutral and (at worst) will quickly revert back toward bullish extremes, according to Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“Such manic dispersion in outlook implies that the markets may likely need more time to find their footing, and could even see lower levels over the coming months,” he noted. “Our work points to more volatility ahead.”
Meantime, bonds are looking attractive and set to beat cash over the next year as inflation cools and central banks end policy tightening, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s head of asset allocation strategy.
“Bonds are starting to offer an attractive entry point,” said Christian Mueller-Glissmann. “Central banks are very close or already at the end of their rate-hiking cycle. We also recognize the pressure that comes from rising long-dated bond yields on the economy. Those factors set investors up nicely for a much better starting point for buying bonds.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc., which is trying to reverse several successive quarters of revenue decline, reported its lowest revenue from the greater China region since mid-2022.
* The US threw its support behind JetBlue Airways Corp.’s attempt to fight expulsion from Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport.
* Carvana Co. beat Wall Street’s expectations in the third quarter, defying the challenges posed by rising interest rates and high inflation.
* Fortinet Inc. cut its annual guidance a second time and projecting that fourth-quarter billings and revenue will fall short of expectations.
* Coinbase Global Inc.’s revenue increased more than forecast as the largest US crypto exchange sought to weather an industrywide decline in trading activity.
* DraftKings Inc., the online sportsbook, reported third-quarter sales and monthly unique players that beat consensus estimates.
* Booking Holdings Inc. said travel demand had been diminished by the Israel-Hamas war, even while forecasting growth and reporting earnings that beat expectations.
** The company has greater exposure in Europe and the Middle East than rivals such as Expedia Group Inc.
* Block Inc., the payments giant run by Jack Dorsey, again boosted its forecast for adjusted profit for the year as customers increasingly turn to its popular Cash App.
* Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is poised to show that persistently high interest rates have helped the conglomerate more than they hindered it.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%
* The euro rose 1% to $1.0727
* The British pound rose 1.4% to $1.2374
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 149.47 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $34,536.41
* Ether rose 0.7% to $1,817.63
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.57%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 2.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 4.29%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $80.95 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,992.30 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Ye Xie, Michael Mackenzie, Christopher DeReza and Michael Tobin.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,
 
Shabnam

“The secret of getting ahead is getting started.” —Mark Twain

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
All Souls Day, Roman Catholic.
Day of the Dead, Mexico: The time to know again what the ancients knew – the spirit lives on.  Remember the good times in our lives with those who have departed and drink a full cup of gratitude for all the inspiration and love that the departed poured into our lives.  Light a candle.  Say a prayer.

November 2, 1968: The first computer mouse is demonstrated publicly by Douglas Engelbart, revolutionizing human-computer interaction.
November 2, 1947: Howard Hughes piloted his huge wooden airplane, the Spruce Goose, on its only flight, which lasted about a minute over Long Beach Harbor in California.  Go to article >>

Centuries-old skeleton with prosthetic fingers unearthed
The skeleton of a middle-aged man who died between 1450 and 1620 was found in Germany with a prosthetic hand with four metal fingers still attached to his left arm. Read More.

15 signs the sun is gearing up for its explosive peak
Experts believe the upcoming solar maximum could be more active and arrive sooner than previously expected. Here are the signs that they are right. Read More.
PHOTOS OF HE DAY

Penmarc’h, France
Sea foam blows in the streets of Penmarch in western France as Storm Ciarán hits the region.  Photograph: Fred Tanneau/AFP/Getty.

New York, US
Visitors take photographs of a painting by Pablo Picasso, Femme à la montre (1932), during a photocall at Sotheby’s auction house showcasing the highlights of the Emily Fisher Landau collection.
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty

​​​​​​​Paris, France
The DJ act Super Computer opens for Oliver Tree during his Alone in a Crowd tour at L’Olympia.  Photograph: Kristy Sparow/Getty
Market Closes for November 2^nd, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	33839.08	+564.50
		+1.70%
S&P 500	4317.78	+79.92
		+1.89%
NASDAQ	13294.19	+232.72
		+1.78%
TSX	19626.34	+547.34
		+2.87%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	31949.89	+348.24
		+1.10%
HANG SENG	17230.59	+128.81
		+0.75%
SENSEX	64080.90	+489.57
		+0.77%
FTSE 100*	7446.53	+104.10
		+1.42%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.854	3.921
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.641	3.743
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6590	4.7341
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8008	4.9273

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7278	0.7218
US $	1.3740	1.3854

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4591	0.6854
US $	1.0619	0.9417

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1986.35	1996.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.46	80.44

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1920, Pittsburgh’s Westinghouse Electric and Manufacturing Company made what is widely recognised as the first commercial radio broadcast. Under the call sign KDKA, Leo Rosenberg announced live returns of the Harding-Cox presidential election.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 2.9%, or 547.34 to 19,626.34 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 3.3% on Nov. 10, 2022.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as all sectors gained; 187 of 227 shares rose, while 37 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 21.3%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain once
* This year, the index rose 1.2%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index rose 4.7%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended April 10
* The index advanced 1.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.8% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 5% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 4% in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 on a trailing basis and 13.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.02t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 15.29% compared with 13.81% in the previous session and the average of 14.19% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 164.8049| 2.9| 25/3
Information Technology | 134.7526| 9.6| 11/0
Energy | 91.4121| 2.5| 32/7
Industrials | 33.5110| 1.3| 21/5
Utilities | 33.1379| 4.3| 15/0
Communication Services | 24.3066| 3.3| 5/0
Materials | 19.3259| 0.9| 33/17
Consumer Staples | 17.1615| 2.0| 10/1
Consumer Discretionary | 15.7050| 2.2| 12/2
Real Estate | 11.5010| 2.6| 19/2
Health Care | 1.7148| 3.1| 4/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 120.5000| 21.3|n/a | 74.6
RBC | 34.3400| 3.2|n/a | -9.8
TD Bank | 29.7600| 3.0|n/a | -9.0
Barrick Gold | -1.9630| -0.7|n/a | -4.9
First Majestic | -2.2250| -15.4|n/a | -45.9
Colliers International | -2.6960| -7.7|n/a | -4.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street pushed the stock market higher a day after the Federal Reserve hinted it may be done with interest-rate hikes, with traders now eagerly awaiting Friday’s jobs report.
In a rally also fueled by oversold conditions and positioning, the S&P 500 added almost 2% — its best session since April.
The market’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — fell below 16 and breached a key technical level.
Tesla Inc. led gains in mega-caps.
Apple Inc. rose ahead of its results.
Long-term Treasuries outperformed, with 30-year yields down 13 basis points to 4.8%.
The dollar dropped.
The pound gained as the Bank of England pushed back on talk of rate cuts.
Oil topped $82.
In the run-up to the jobs data, a report showed US labor productivity advanced by the most in three years, helping to alleviate the inflationary impact of recent wage growth.
Continuing jobless claims rose for a sixth straight week, indicating those losing their jobs are starting to have more trouble finding new ones.
Economists are forecasting non-farm payrolls rose by 180,000 in October following September’s gain of 336,000.
“Friday payrolls will be critical,” said Priya Misra, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. “If we get a weak report, rates will continue their move lower, but financial conditions may not loosen further since a recession may look more imminent. A strong report and then the market will watch the Fed nervously to see if they will react.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows 52% of investors expect Friday’s data to be risk-on — and only 14% think it will be risk-off.
This is the most optimistic investors have been since the firm started the surveys a year ago.
In addition, 41% of those polled think average hourly earnings will be the most-important indicator, followed by payrolls.
While the Federal Open Market Committee kept open the prospect of additional policy action on strong economic growth, Jerome Powell speculated that Treasury yields at lofty levels could instead help the central bank keep monetary conditions restrictive to wring out the inflationary excesses of this business cycle.
“From our vantage point, the FOMC signaled the conclusion of the rate hike cycle,” said Spencer Hakimian at Tolou Capital Management.
Combined with the better-than-expected data in the Treasury quarterly refunding announcement (QRA), “and we believe tailwinds exist across the curve in Treasuries going into year-end.”
To Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers, market players are front-running the possibility of rate cuts in the near future amid bets the Fed is done tightening — even though Powell said easing is not currently being discussed.
In fact, a growing chorus of investors is cautioning against prematurely declaring that the US bond market’s brutal rout is finally over for good.
Hedge fund K2 Asset Management is predicting that benchmark 10-year Treasury yields will rise back to 5% — from around 4.6% — while Franklin Templeton says they could peak at 5.25% — a level last seen in 2007.
At Citadel Securities, global head of rates trading Michael de Pass says the Treasury market remains “very much dependent on the data,” leaving the risk that the market’s euphoric mood could change.
And Barclays Plc co-head of global markets Stephen Dainton said it is “very unlikely” the Fed is done tightening policy.
“We got a hold from the Fed that was mostly hawkish — but just dovish enough to keep a lid on future tightening expectations,” said Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “Whatever the market thinks the Fed thinks, it will still come down to the data and that makes Friday’s jobs data all the more important. We continue to believe that the US economy remains robust enough to require  further tightening.”
Another potential big driver of trading will be Apple’s earnings after the closing bell.
Hopes that Apple’s results will help salvage a mixed earnings season for mega-cap tech stocks are being clouded by one issue in particular: China.
Risks related to the country have mounted for the heavily-exposed iPhone maker since Apple last reported, adding to Wall Street’s caution ahead of its results — along with tepid growth trends, a high multiple, and the rise in interest rates.
Investors have punished stocks where earnings don’t live up to expectations.
Options positioning in the stock has turned bearish ahead of the results, according to Citigroup.

Corporate Highlights:
* Qualcomm Inc. jumped after the largest seller of smartphone chips gave a bullish revenue forecast.
* Starbucks Corp.’s revenue beat expectations in the latest sign that diners aren’t quitting their lattes even in tough economic conditions.
* Palantir Technologies Inc. surged after the company reported the fourth consecutive quarter of profitability and highest earnings since its founding 20 years ago.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. climbed after the payments giant boosted its profit outlook and reported increased spending on its platforms.
* ConocoPhillips jumped after the oil explorer boosted investor payouts and raised its production outlook.
* Eli Lilly & Co. beat Wall Street’s estimates for third-quarter revenue as its star diabetes drug Mounjaro outran expectations.
* Moderna Inc. slid after it said it expected revenue to fall sharply next year to well below what analysts were expecting.
* Peloton Interactive Inc. tumbled after the fitness company said it expects revenue to fall even more steeply than feared this quarter.
* Beyond Meat Inc. cut its revenue forecast for the second time in three months amid sagging demand for its plant-based proteins.
* Airbnb Inc. gave a disappointing outlook for the fourth quarter, citing “greater volatility” in the economic environment that it expects will slow demand for travel.
* Six Flags Entertainment Corp. agreed to merge with Cedar Fair Entertainment Co. in an all-stock deal that will value the combined businesses at about $8 billion including debt and will create one of the biggest theme park operators in the Americas.

Key events this week:
* China Caixin services PMI, Friday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Canada employment report, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.7%
* The MSCI World index rose 2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0623
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2209
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 150.46 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $35,021.64
* Ether fell 2.3% to $1,812.73
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.67%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 12 basis points to 4.38%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.4% to $82.37 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,985.31 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo, Isabelle Lee and Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. –Winston Churchill, 1874-1965.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy November.  All Saints Day.
Scorpio: October 23-November 21.
Sagittarius: November 22-December 21.
November birthstone: Topaz
November flower: Chrysanthemum.

NOVEMBER:
“The last red berries shrivel.  Night comes early, dawn late.  The sun is weaker.  Ice is on the birdbath, frost on the car.  Perhaps it is already snowing.  Certainly, it’s damp and raw.  Rain is forecast.  Now is the time to act, to begin.  As Ishmael says in Moby Dick, ‘whenever it is a damp drizzly November in my soul…I account it high time to get to sea as soon as I can’.  He means it’s time for human deeds.  Without our contribution, nothing will happen, life will have no meaning.  Without our experience, the world cannot evolve, life on earth cannot become more abundant.  ‘We have it in our power to begin the world over again,’ said Tom Paine.  ‘Start by doing what’s necessary; then do what’s possible; and suddenly you are doing the impossible,” said St Francis of Assisi.  All it takes is patience, grace, intention, and the right moment.” -by Cosmo Doogood.

November 1, 1993: The Maastricht Treaty, which introduced the Euro as a common currency for European Union countries, comes into effect.
On Nov. 1, 1952, the United States exploded the first hydrogen bomb, in a test at Eniwetok in the Marshall Islands.  Go to article >>

The best celebrity Halloween costumes of 2023
With a team of professional makeup artists and hair stylists at their fingertips, these celebrities debuted the most elaborate costumes of the year.

Saudi Arabia set to host 2034 World Cup as Australia withdraws interest
Saudi Arabia is set to host the 2034 men’s FIFA World Cup after Australia withdrew its interest hours before the bidding deadline on Tuesday.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Artvin, Turkey
Autumn colours around Rutav Lake in the village of Yukarı Koyunlu.  Photograph: Ali Fatih Akcay/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images.

Tenterfield, Australia
Bushfires seen in the distance surrounding the northern New South Wales town of Tenterfield.  Photograph: Reuters.

London, UK
A giant inflatable octopus on the bank of the River Thames next to the Houses of Parliament, during action by Greenpeace highlighting the need to protect oceans.
Photograph: Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for November 1^st, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	33274.58	+221.71
		+0.67%
S&P 500	4237.86	+44.06
		+1.05%
NASDAQ	13061.47	+210.23
		+1.64%
TSX	19079.00	+205.53
		+1.09%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	31601.65	+742.80
		+2.41%
HANG SENG	17101.78	-10.70
		-0.06%
SENSEX	63591.33	-283.60
		-0.44%
FTSE 100*	7342.43	+20.71
		+0.28%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.921	4.064
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.743	3.860
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.7341	4.9307
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9273	5.0931

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7218	0.7207
US $	1.3854	1.3875

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4642	0.6829
US $	1.0570	0.9461

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1996.90	1997.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.44	81.02

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1978: Total daily trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange exceeded 50 million for the first time, with 50.45 million shares changing hands.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 1.1%, or 205.53 to 19,079.00 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.3% on Oct. 10.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 177 of 227 shares rose, while 46 fell.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.8%.
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP had the largest increase, rising 10.8%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 12 times. The next day, it advanced eight times for an average 0.4% and declined four times for an average 0.6%
* This year, the index fell 1.6%, heading for the worst year since 2022
* The index declined 2.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 9% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 8.5% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 2.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and fell 2.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 on a trailing basis and 13.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.99t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 13.81% compared with 13.24% in the previous session and the average of 14.14% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 54.0023| 1.0| 25/3
Energy | 37.2276| 1.0| 32/6
Utilities | 27.5954| 3.7| 15/0
Information Technology | 26.8785| 2.0| 7/4
Industrials | 22.3679| 0.9| 22/4
Communication Services | 13.8526| 1.9| 5/0
Consumer Staples | 11.5810| 1.4| 10/1
Real Estate | 10.3164| 2.4| 21/0
Consumer Discretionary | 1.7215| 0.2| 8/6
Health Care | 0.8272| 1.5| 3/1
Materials | -0.8262| 0.0| 29/21
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | 19.6300| 4.8|n/a | -0.6
Shopify | 18.1300| 3.3|n/a | 43.9
Canadian Natural Resources | 12.6000| 1.9|n/a | 19.3
Franco-Nevada | -3.8780| -1.7|n/a | -10.2
SSR Mining | -4.1310| -15.1|n/a | -23.1
First Quantum Minerals | -5.0610| -8.0|n/a | -47.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Investors who were braced for a “hawkish hold” from Jerome Powell Wednesday got something altogether different from the Federal Reserve chairman — hope that that the rate-hike cycle is over.
The result was sizable rallies in both stocks and bonds.
Traders got a dose of encouragement after Powell signaled the current tightening cycle has come far and noted the Fed is “proceeding carefully.”
The S&P 500 climbed over 1%.
Ten-year US rates dropped 17 basis points to 4.76%, with the move initially triggered by the Treasury’s plans to slow the pace of increase in its long-term debt sales.
Swaps for January show a peak rate of 5.41% — equating to only eight basis points of additional hikes.
“The Fed tried to deliver a hawkish hold, but Wall Street is not believing additional tightening will happen this cycle,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst for the Americas at Oanda. “Fed Chair Powell tried to talk a hawkish game, but he wasn’t convincing enough.”
Another relevant aspect was that the Fed signaled that a run-up in long-term Treasury yields reduces the impetus to raise interest rates again.
The perception is —  the massive increase in longer-term rates has effectively done some of the work the Fed has been trying to accomplish in its quest to tighten conditions and bring inflation back to the 2% target.
“The Fed didn’t hike today, mainly because the bond market hiked for them,” Callie Cox at eToro. “This should be a relief for investors. The Fed is paying attention to the big picture, and they know that blindly hiking on top of substantially tight conditions could tip the economy over the edge.”
The US central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee held interest rates at a 22-year high for a second straight meeting on Wednesday.
It said in a post-meeting statement that “tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation,” adding the word “financial” to
language that previously referred only to credit conditions.
To Tiffany Wilding, economist at Pacific Investment Management Co., the central bank is balancing the resilient economic data in recent months against tighter financial conditions.
“Based on the November FOMC meeting, tighter financial conditions seem to be winning out for Fed officials for now,” she noted.

More Comments:

* Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate:
“The Federal Reserve held off on another interest rate hike, but is keeping their options open to raise rates at an upcoming meeting should conditions warrant. The rise in long-term interest rates in recent months has had the same desired effect of monetary tightening, effectively doing some of the Fed’s dirty work for them.”

* Peter Boockvar, author of the Boock Report:
“The FOMC statement added one tweak to the statement with everything else pretty much identical to the September one but the messaging was that the rise in long-end rates is another form of monetary tightening as it should be treated as such.  What else would you call a 100 bps rise in the average 30-year mortgage rate since their last rate hike in July coincident with the jump in long rates?”

* Diane C Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, on Bloomberg TV:
“The strength of the economy justifies higher rates, and it also brings into question, how much restriction we have. And if financial conditions were to unwind, and the rout in the bond market were to unwind, that takes away the restriction that’s out there, and all of the sudden, the Fed has to get back in the game. So that optionality of every meeting being live?  Critical.”
Meantime, the Treasury said it will sell $112 billion of longer-term securities at its quarterly refunding auctions next week, which span 3-, 10- and 30-year notes.
Many major dealers had predicted $114 billion.
Secretary Janet Yellen has rejected the idea that increased government borrowing caused the recent surge in bond yields, but several market participants have cited fiscal concerns.
“Our takeaway from the new information was that the reintroduction of term premium into the long-end of the curve was enough to give Yellen pause in being too aggressive with long-end issuance increases,” said Ben Jeffery, US rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets. “While the Treasury said it anticipates one more quarter of larger auctions, we suspect the risk is tilted toward a more measured approach going forward.”
Oversold technicals are making stocks prone to relief rallies, but the direction of travel is likely to be tied to the Fed’s policy — especially after very strong tightening in financial conditions in the past six weeks — which took the Goldman Sachs US Financial Conditions Index to its highest in a year.
“We estimate that the recent tightening has roughly the same impact on the economy as four 25 bp hikes,” say Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius. “The rise in interest rates has been driven by a reassessment of the neutral rate and an increase in the term premium, and for that reason looks unlikely to reverse anytime soon.”
While October is typically the market’s most volatile month and known for crashes in 1929, 1987 and 2008, November has traditionally been the second-strongest month for stocks behind April.
November traditionally kicks off the “best six months” of the year for the S&P 500, typically because stock buying by companies and pension plans tend to pick up starting on Nov. 1, per the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
The tax-loss harvesting deadline for mutual funds is usually Oct. 31, compared with the end of the year for individual taxpayers.
A contrarian indicator from Bank of America Corp. that compiles Wall Street strategists’ recommended allocation to stocks is getting closer to flashing “buy.”
The gauge’s current level implies a 16% price return for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, strategists led by Savita Subramanian said Wednesday in a note to clients.
“Sentiment and positioning are at extremes, while financial conditions are at the tightest level in a year,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. “There are similarities to the extreme pessimism from a year ago that led to a 20% rally in equities, though the fundamental backdrop will need to remain healthy to support such a move.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc. climbed after saying a new AI chip will generate $2 billion in sales next year, fueling optimism that demand for the component will offset a slump in orders for video-game equipment.
* Apollo Global Management Inc. jumped as investors looked past a private equity deal slowdown and cheered momentum in the firm’s massive credit business.
* Estée Lauder Cos.’ already-battered shares plummeted still more after the beauty giant slashed its full-year outlook on troubles in China and the Middle East.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. is searching for a potential partner to grow its private credit business and accelerate its push into one of the hottest areas in leveraged finance, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* WeWork Inc. is preparing to file for bankruptcy as soon as next week, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* Netflix Inc.’s advertising-supported plan has reached 15 million global customers one year after its launch, the company said in a blog post Wednesday.
* CVS Health Corp. fell as its management told investors to expect adjusted 2024 profit toward the low end of the company’s forecast.
* Humana Inc. sank after executives said the initial outlook for 2024 profit growth would be at the low end of its forecast.
Key events this week:
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* Bank of England interest rate decision. Governor Andrew Bailey holds news conference, Thursday
* US factory orders, initial jobless claims, productivity, Thursday
* Apple earnings, Thursday
* China Caixin services PMI, Friday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Canada employment report, Friday
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo and Michael Mackenzie.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
When we are born we cry that we are come to this great stage of fools. –William Shakespeare, 1564-1616, King Lear.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Hallowe’en.  Samhain: Wiccan New Year.

October 31, 2011: The world’s official population reached 7 billion on approximately this day.  The United Nations Population Fund designated it as the Day of Seven Billion.

John Keats, poet, b. 1795.
Helmut Newton, photographer, b.1920
Harry Houdini, magician, b.1926.
Dan Rather, TV journalist, b. 1931

Heidi Klum’s most iconic Halloween costumes
Let’s take a look back at Heidi Klum’s best, most elaborate costumes over the years — the earthworm, the ogre, the clones, to name a few.

10 DIY last-minute Halloween costumes for kids and adults
If it seems that your dreams of extravagant costumes are long gone, think again. These last-minute Halloween costumes are easy to make at a moment’s notice.

Apple unveils its fastest iMac and MacBook Pro models yet
The company on Monday introduced a new generation of “scary fast” processors and along with it, a handful of new computers.

Scientists finally discover ‘lost continent’ thought to have vanished without a trace:  Scientists have pieced together the remnants of a continent that broke off from western Australia 155 million years ago and seemingly vanished as it drifted northward toward Southeast Asia. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sydney, Australia: Carnival Cruise Line’s resident redback, Fangelica, marks Halloween by floating across Sydney Harbour as Carnival Splendor arrives in the city.
Photograph: James D Morgan/Getty Images for Carnival Cruise Lines

Halloween Underground captures Seymour Licht’s 20-year long quest to photograph people dressed up in outlandish costumes against the backdrop of the drab, gritty New York transit system. Originally the project began as a way to document the famously flamboyant Greenwich Village Halloween Parade. But Licht followed his instincts and found himself drawn more to the isolated, solitary, disguised individuals below ground, waiting on the subway platform or inside a train car for their stop to arrive. Halloween Underground: New York Subway Portraits by Seymour Licht is out now

Some are comical or very elaborate and inventive – here we see a patient who lost her brain and the doctor who holds it on a platter
Market Closes for October 31^st, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	33052.87	+123.91
		+0.38%
S&P 500	4193.80	+26.98
		+0.65%
NASDAQ	12851.24	+61.76
		+0.48%
TSX	18873.47	+16.70
		+0.09%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	30858.85	+161.89
		+0.53%
HANG SENG	17112.48	-293.88
		-1.69%
SENSEX	63874.93	-237.72
		-0.37%
FTSE 100*	7321.72	-5.67
		-0.08%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	4.064	4.037
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.860	3.824
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.9307	4.8921
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0931	5.0485

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7207	0.7230
US $	1.3875	1.3832

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4673	0.6815
US $	1.0575	0.9456

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1997.60	1982.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future	81.02	82.31

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 2001, the U.S. Treasury announced it would stop issuing 30-year bonds, then the mainstay of the bond market. Short-term interest rates were lower than those for longer-term bonds. (The opposite is true today, a dynamic known as yield curve inversion.)
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 18,873.47 in Toronto.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 8.4%.
Today, 117 of 227 shares rose, while 105 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 2.6%, heading for the worst year since 2022
* This month, the index fell 3.4%
* The index declined 2.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 7.6% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 9.5% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.6% in the past 5 days and fell 3.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 on a trailing basis and 13.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.99t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 13.24% compared with 13.60% in the previous session and the average of 14.15% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 33.3358| 0.9| 33/6
Financials | 13.5262| 0.2| 16/12
Information Technology | 13.4158| 1.0| 8/3
Industrials | 4.7055| 0.2| 16/10
Consumer Staples | 4.2846| 0.5| 8/3
Consumer Discretionary | 1.5187| 0.2| 5/9
Health Care | 0.9357| 1.8| 4/0
Real Estate | 0.7835| 0.2| 12/8
Communication Services | 0.1188| 0.0| 1/2
Utilities | -6.4568| -0.9| 2/13
Materials | -49.4753| -2.2| 12/39
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Cameco | 13.2300| 8.4|n/a | 84.8
RBC | 6.2440| 0.6|n/a | -13.0
Enbridge | 5.9040| 0.9|n/a | -16.0
Franco-Nevada | -7.7430| -3.3|n/a | -8.6
Nutrien | -10.3300| -3.9|n/a | -24.7
First Quantum Minerals | -15.4200| -19.7|n/a | -43.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s jittery month ended, with the S&P 500 rising on Tuesday — but still notching its longest monthly slide since the onset of the pandemic.
The dollar climbed as the yen hit a 33-year low after the Bank of Japan made only minor changes to its policy settings.
On the eve of the Federal Reserve decision, traders took the latest economic data in stride.
The S&P 500 rebounded in the final day of October, while posting its third straight month of losses. JPMorgan Chase & Co. paced a rally in big banks.
Tesla Inc. bounced back, while Nvidia Corp. finished lower by almost 1%.
In late trading, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. fell on a bearish revenue outlook.
Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.93%.
The dollar halted a two-day drop.
The Japanese currency weakened past 151.
The yen will possibly continue to weaken — and the BOJ will be forced to shift to a more “hawkish tone” in the coming weeks, according to Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research.
In economic news, US consumer confidence dropped to a five-month low in October while employment costs unexpectedly accelerated in the third quarter — underscoring a strong labor market that risks keeping inflation above the Fed’s target.
“The Fed is still wary of letting their guard down too early after missing their inflation target badly in the last few years,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.
“They are likely to signal tomorrow that they are prepared to raise interest rates again if inflation strays from its current downward trajectory.”
Aside from the highly anticipated Fed decision, bond dealers are expecting the US Treasury to unveil another round of increases this week to its note and bond auctions, though a sizable minority forecast the department will slow the pace of growth to avoid jolting yields higher.
“The main concern on parts of the bond market, particularly the traditional part, is really about the premium you’re getting — the term premium — to go out on the curve,” Russ Koesterich, global allocation fund portfolio manager at BlackRock, told Bloomberg Television. “And that is as much to do with the supply and changing demand dynamics as it does about inflation and the Fed. So you still want to be cautious on long-duration bonds.”
Billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller said he’s bought “massive” bullish positions in two-year notes, as he’s become more worried about the economy.
Investors are also looking to guidance from the ongoing earnings season to assess the outlook for profits and how companies are able to withstand headwinds like higher rates.
US stocks have slumped this month, as disappointing showings from technology giants including Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Facebook owner Meta Platforms Inc. have weighed on sentiment.

Corporate Highlights:
* Caterpillar Inc. and JetBlue Airways Corp. slipped as their results signaled slowing demand.
* Zillow Group Inc. and other real estate stocks plunged after a Missouri jury found the National Association of Realtors and other industry players guilty of colluding to maintain high brokerage commissions.
* Pfizer Inc.’s sales missed expectations for the quarter as its Covid-19 shot and pill continued to create instability for the drugmaker’s efforts to transition out of the pandemic.
* Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. and Roche Holding AG slumped after the partners’ trial of a gene therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy failed to meet the main goal of a study, raising doubts that the treatment will be expanded to older children.
* Pinterest Inc. jumped after the social-networking company reported third quarter results that beat expectations. Analysts are positive about the company’s revenue growth rate and  expanding margins.

Key events this week:
* China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Wednesday
* UK S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday
* US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, job openings, light vehicle sales, Wednesday
* All Saints holiday in much of Europe, Wednesday
* Treasury quarterly refunding announcement, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds news conference, Wednesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* Bank of England interest rate decision. Governor Andrew Bailey holds news conference, Thursday
* US factory orders, initial jobless claims, productivity, Thursday
* Apple earnings, Thursday
* China Caixin services PMI, Friday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Canada employment report, Friday
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo and Isabelle Lee.

Have a  lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you.
You are right because your data and reasoning are right. –Benjamin Graham, 1894-1976.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

October 30, 1938: Orson Welles broadcasts his radio play “The War of the Worlds,” causing widespread panic and controversy.

2003: Lebron James made his NBA debut with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Go to article >>

Significant Numbers:
2: hours spent each day on TikTok by American youth between 11 and 17 years old.  A new report suggests teens prefer video-sharing apps because they are passive – users can scroll aimlessly without reading or writing.

95: years since a Norwegian writer last won  the Nobel Prize in literature.  That interlude was broken this year by Norwegian author and playwright Jon Fosse, who focuses on themes including aging, love, and art.

61.48: Degrees (in Fahrenheit) recorded in September, the hottest global average ever measured.  The summer broke records worldwide as well, but experts say September’s record is the bigger climate anomaly.
Sources: Common Sense Media, NY times, Associated Press.

Severe drought reveals more than 100 rock carvings in Amazonian tributary that may be up to 2,000 years old
Engravings of human faces, animals and geometric shapes were spotted on normally submerged rocks after more than half of the Negro River dried up. Read More.

This Florida town full of mediums has been luring believers, the curious and the skeptical for more than a century
Roughly 50 miles from Orlando’s theme parks, the town of Cassadaga is home to a Spiritualist camp where mediums say they can communicate with the dead. Of course, CNN took a trip to see what the chatter is all about.

Five ways to nourish your brain
Nutritional psychiatrist and personal chef Dr. Uma Naidoo served up these tips for eating to improve brain function and mood.

This massive ‘floating’ museum is straight out of science fiction
A building of this size and complexity would typically take years to build, but this impressive museum went from concept to completion in just 12 months.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Edinburgh, UK:  The Scott Monument framed by trees in autumn colours in the city’s Princes Street Gardens.  Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA.

Hollywood, California, US:  guests at the Dia De Los Muertos celebration at Hollywood Forever.  Photograph: Emma McIntyre/Getty Images.

Galway, Ireland: Members of the Macnas performance group appear in their annual Halloween parade, called Cnámha La Loba, which was inspired by the legend of a wolf-woman who collected and preserved bones of animals, humans, and gods.  Photograph: Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters.
Market Closes for October 30^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	32928.96	+511.37
		+1.58%
S&P 500	4166.82	+49.45
		+1.20%
NASDAQ	12789.48	+146.47
		+1.16%
TSX	18856.76	+119.37
		+0.64%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	30696.96	-294.73
		-0.95%
HANG SENG	17406.36	+7.63
		+0.04%
SENSEX	64112.65	+329.85
		+0.52%
FTSE 100*	7327.39	+36.11
		+0.50%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	4.037	3.978
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.824	3.745
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.8921	4.8409
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0485	5.0133

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7230	0.7207
US $	1.3832	1.3875

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4683	0.6811
US $	1.0617	0.9419

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1982.90	1975.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.31	85.54

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1989, Mitsubishi Estate agreed to pay $846 million for 51% of Rockefeller Center in New York City, setting off mass hysteria among U.S. pundits who claimed America’s patrimony was being scooped up by the Japanese. By 1996, the Mitsubishi affiliate was so financially troubled that it sold Rockefeller Center for less than $400 million.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 18,856.76 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on Oct. 16 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.7%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 150 of 227 shares rose, while 75 fell.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.5%. BlackBerry Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 6.4%.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 2.7%, heading for the worst year since 2022
* This month, the index fell 3.5%
* The index declined 3.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 6.2% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 9.5% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 0.9% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1% in the past 5 days and fell 3.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 on a trailing basis and 13.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year * The index’s dividend yield is 3.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.97t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 13.60% compared with 13.33% in the previous session and the average of 14.20% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 76.4202| 1.4| 25/3
Industrials | 37.3151| 1.5| 23/2
Information Technology | 24.8752| 1.9| 10/1
Consumer Staples | 20.6303| 2.5| 11/0
Utilities | 12.9900| 1.8| 15/0
Communication Services | 9.3413| 1.3| 4/1
Consumer Discretionary | 4.7607| 0.7| 8/5
Energy | 4.2421| 0.1| 18/22
Real Estate | 3.3170| 0.8| 19/2
Health Care | 0.3219| 0.6| 4/0
Materials | -74.8428| -3.3| 13/39
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 16.1000| 1.5|n/a | -13.5
TD Bank | 13.2100| 1.4|n/a | -12.0
Constellation Software | 11.2200| 3.1|n/a | 33.0
Agnico Eagle Mines | -6.2930| -2.7|n/a | -6.5
Franco-Nevada | -21.7300| -8.5|n/a | -5.5
First Quantum Minerals | -31.2300| -28.5|n/a | -29.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose, Treasuries fell and oil slid 3.5% as Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza appeared less extensive than investors had feared.
The yen climbed on a news report the Bank of Japan may raise a cap on bond yields.
The S&P 500 added 1.2%, the most since August.
Amazon.com Inc. led gains in the beaten-down mega-cap space, though Tesla Inc. bucked that trend — dropping about 5%.
Equities are still on track for their third monthly slump — the longest since March 2020.
Ten-year US yields rose four basis points to 4.88%.
The Treasury cut its estimate for federal borrowing in the quarter to $776 billion.
The dollar dropped.
Oil erased its gains since the war in the Middle East began as Israel faces growing pressure to limit its bombardments to help hostage negotiations, keeping the conflict limited entering its fourth week.
West Texas Intermediate fell as much as 4.3%, with losses accelerating after crude slipped below technical support levels near $82 a barrel.
“Israel moved forces into Gaza over the weekend, but the operation isn’t as large as feared yet — and that’s helping to slightly reduce geopolitical anxiety,” said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter.
“This week will be a very busy one as we get a Fed decision and important economic/inflation data, as well as the final ‘big’ week of earnings.”
Aside from geopolitical jitters, equities were hit this month by a surge in bond yields and disappointing earnings from some big techs.
Those concerns drove the S&P 500’s 14-day Relative Strength Index below 30 last week — which is seen by some on Wall Street as a sign of an oversold market.
John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., says he remains constructive on equities.
“We view the three-month corrective occurrence experienced by stocks since August as likely near an end,” he noted.  “Valuations have come down substantially across the sectors and resilience remains the operative word for the US economy.”
Yet Stoltzfus, a long-time stock market bull, lowered his year-end forecast for the US equity benchmark to 4,400 from 4,900, previously the highest among forecasters tracked by Bloomberg.
The gauge closed at 4,166.78 on Monday.
He says there’s not enough time for the index to reach his previously projected level as geopolitical risk and interest-rate worries afflict equities.

Earnings Bets
Wall Street expectations for double-digit earnings growth are “divorced from the risks” posed by tightening financial conditions and rising geopolitical tensions, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic.
Investors hoping for a boost to stocks by the end of the year will be disappointed, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
“Chances of a fourth-quarter rally have fallen considerably,” said Wilson, who was once again named as the best portfolio strategist by the latest Institutional Investor survey. “Narrowing breadth, cautious factor leadership, falling earnings revisions and fading consumer and business confidence tell a different story than the consensus, which sees a rally into year-end.”
US blue-chip companies unleashed a wave of bond sales on Monday as borrowers look to sell new debt in a week jam-packed with bond auctions, central bank meetings and fresh economic data.
Morgan Stanley, Hyundai Capital America and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. were among 12 high-grade issuers in the market, marking the busiest day for issuance since companies brought 20 deals on Sept. 5 after the Labor Day holiday, data compiled by Bloomberg News shows.

Corporate Highlights:
* McDonald’s Corp. sales and profits beat expectations in the third quarter thanks to higher prices and movie-inspired ads, but US customer traffic dipped for the first time this year.
* Western Digital Corp. will split into two separate, publicly traded companies after talks to merge with Kioxia Holdings Corp. fell apart.
* Broadcom Inc. and software maker VMware Inc. said their $61 billion merger is on track to close before a November deadline, working to reassure investors while China drags out its review of the deal.
* HSBC Holdings Plc announced a fresh buyback program and hinted at the potential for further returns to investors despite announcing profits for the third-quarter that missed market expectations.
* General Motors Co. reached a tentative contract agreement with the United Auto Workers union, according to people familiar with the matter, bringing an end to a six-week-old strike that had upended US automobile production and cost the industry billions of dollars.
* Ford Motor Co.’s tentative agreement to end the six-week strike by the United Auto Workers includes $8.1 billion in investments at both internal combustion and electric vehicle plants, as well as record raises.

Key events this week:
* China non-manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI, Tuesday
* Bank of Japan interest rate decision, Tuesday
* Eurozone CPI, GDP, Tuesday
* US Conference Board consumer confidence, employment cost index, Tuesday
* China Caixin manufacturing PMI, Wednesday
* UK S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday
* US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, job openings, light vehicle sales, Wednesday
* All Saints holiday in much of Europe, Wednesday
* Treasury quarterly refunding announcement, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds news conference, Wednesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* Bank of England interest rate decision. Governor Andrew Bailey holds news conference, Thursday
* US factory orders, initial jobless claims, productivity, Thursday
* Apple earnings, Thursday
* China Caixin services PMI, Friday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
* Canada employment report, Friday
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
All bad precedents begin with justifiable measures. –Julius Caesar, 100 BC-44 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.  Full moon this weekend, rising tomorrow night – also known as the “Hunter’s Moon.”

Just back last night from an investment conference in NYC which was full of important and useful insights.  AI features hugely as the topic of conversation.  It is being regarded as an inflection point in human evolution that is going to have tremendous impact on our human story, equivalent to the Gutenberg press, the industrial revolution and the internet.  It is amazing how rapidly the AI story is progressing.
This is the conference that I refer to as the Taylor Swift concert equivalent in the world of finance/investing.  Presenters included heavyweights, Stanley Druckenmiller, Steve Cohen, Paul Jones, Ken Griffin, Larry Robbins, Asam Altman (innovator of ChatGPT) and so on…

October 27, 1904: The first rapid transit subway opened, in New York City.  Go to article >>

Theodore Roosevelt, b.1858.
Dylan Thomas, b.1914.
Sylvia Plath, b. 1932.

October 27, 1962: Black Saturday during the Cuban Missile Crises: An American spy plane is shot down over Cuba and the navy drops warning depth charges on Soviet submarines.

Cold War satellite images reveal nearly 400 Roman forts in the Middle East
The photos, taken in the 1960s and 1970s by the first spy satellites, reveal that the eastern border of the Roman Empire was a place of vibrant trade. Read More.

Rare cross-shaped reliquary unearthed from medieval knight’s home in Poland:  Archaeologists in Poland have discovered the remnants of a medieval knight’s residence, along with numerous artifacts.  Full Story: Live Science (10/26).

Rare lake forms in Death Valley
There’s still time to see a rare oasis that formed in Death Valley. Read More.

Taylor Swift is now a billionaire, Bloomberg says.  Swift’s total net worth is now at $1.1 billion, Bloomberg said, thanks to a record-breaking Eras tour that helped boost the US economy over the summer.

How 2023 became the year of the lab-grown diamond
Structurally identical to mined stones, sales of man-made diamonds were up 38% in 2022 to around $12 billion. Should legacy jewelry brands be worried?

‘Last’ Beatles song featuring John Lennon is ‘quite emotional’
Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr, the last two living Beatles, have “come together” to finish a song that the late John Lennon wrote and recorded in 1970 called “Now and Then.”

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

New York, US:  Guests attend the opening night of the Balloon Museum’s immersive contemporary art exhibition Let’s Fly at Pier 36.  Photograph: John Angelillo/UPI/Shutterstock.

London, UK:  Tjeerd Bakker, the senior horological conservator at Buckingham Palace, changes the time on a mantel clock dating from 1765-85 created by François Louis Godon in the Silk Tapestry Room.
Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA

Tlaxcala, Mexico:  People dressed as ghosts prepare for the Day of the Dead festival.  Photograph: Essene Hernandez/Eyepix Group/Shutterstock.
Market Closes for October 27^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	32417.59	-366.71
		-1.12%
S&P 500	4117.37	-19.86
		-0.48%
NASDAQ	12643.01	+47.40
		+0.38%
TSX	18737.39	-137.92
		-0.73%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	30991.69	+389.91
		+1.27%
HANG SENG	17398.73	+354.12
		+2.08%
SENSEX	63782.80	+634.65
		+1.00%
FTSE 100*	7291.28	-63.29
		-0.86%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.978	4.002
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.745	3.759
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.8409	4.8445
U.S. 30 Year Bond	5.0133	4.9861

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7207	0.7236
US $	1.3875	1.3819

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4658	0.6822
US $	1.0565	0.9466

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1975.00	1983.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	85.54	83.21

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1923, the greatest bull market of the 20th century began after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 85.76. It lasted nearly 6 years and lifted stocks by 344.5%. Then, beginning in 1929, the Great Crash pulled stocks down by 89%, erasing nearly all these gains.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the eighth day, dropping 0.7%, or 137.92 to 18,737.39 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level in at least a year.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.6%.
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP had the largest drop, falling 4.8%.
Today, 138 of 227 shares fell, while 85 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 3.3%, heading for the worst year since 2022
* This month, the index fell 4.1%
* So far this week, the index fell 2%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Sept. 22
* The index declined 3.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 7.3% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week low and 10.1% below its high on Feb. 2, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 on a trailing basis and 13.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.99t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 13.33% compared with 13.39% in the previous session and the average of 14.09% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -87.7406| -1.6| 3/25
Energy | -26.5279| -0.7| 16/21
Utilities | -12.9823| -1.7| 0/15
Consumer Discretionary | -11.9448| -1.7| 2/12
Information Technology | -8.8979| -0.7| 2/9
Communication Services | -8.5992| -1.2| 1/4
Consumer Staples | -7.8769| -0.9| 1/10
Real Estate | -3.8626| -0.9| 2/18
Industrials | -1.8671| -0.1| 13/13
Health Care | -0.8463| -1.6| 0/4
Materials | 33.2550| 1.5| 45/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -16.9800| -1.6|n/a | -14.8
TD Bank | -16.0400| -1.6|n/a | -13.1
Enbridge | -10.1800| -1.6|n/a | -17.7
Wheaton Precious Metals | 3.8920| 2.1|n/a | 14.1
Agnico Eagle Mines | 7.1920| 3.2|n/a | -3.9
Franco-Nevada | 7.3810| 3.0|n/a | 3.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rebound in stocks sputtered, with the S&P 500 extending a slide from its July peak to 10% — and entering a “correction.”
Oil topped $85 and gold hit $2,000 amid the latest geopolitical developments.
Volatility resurfaced on news that Israeli forces are expanding activity in Gaza.
The US stock benchmark saw its worst week in a month.
The KBW Bank Index slid to the lowest since September 2020.
Amazon.com Inc. and Intel Corp. rallied on earnings.
Treasury two-year yields retreated as traders took a hot inflation measure in stride.
The dollar fell.
US stocks are in their third month of declines after bond yields soared on worries about a persistently hawkish Federal Reserve.
Concern about the war in the Middle East as well as an underwhelming corporate earnings season have dented risk appetite more recently.
“The aggressive market selloff has been driven largely by technical factors, as fundamentals remain solid,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. “This is fitting, given the strong bounce since last October was also largely technical. Signs of oversold conditions and supportive seasonality should lead to a bounce, though sentiment will need to shift, which could take a catalyst or a period of
capitulation.”
More than two-thirds of stocks for companies in the S&P 500 index are trading below their 200-day moving averages, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence.
That’s a sign of widespread pain for stock prices, after many companies have posted lackluster earnings amid interest rates that are high and bond yields that keep creeping up.
US near-term inflation expectations rose in October to a five-month high as they feared higher prices at the gas pump, reinforcing downbeat views on the economy.
The Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation accelerated to a four-month high in September and consumer spending picked up, keeping the door open to another interest-rate hike in the months ahead. 

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. raised the price of its Model Y Performance sport-utility vehicle by around $2,000 in China on Friday, according to its local website, reversing a reduction made only in August.
* Walt Disney Co. is once again overhauling its movie release calendar, delaying three films that had previously been scheduled for next year and removing another three from the line-up altogether.
* Ford Motor Co. said it fell short of third-quarter earnings expectations, citing higher costs and lower quality, a day after it won labor peace through a tentative contract with the United Auto Workers.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. posted disappointing profits amid weak performances by their oil-refining and chemical businesses.
* Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. jumped after the restaurant chain reported third-quarter comparable sales that beat estimates.
* AutoNation Inc., one of the biggest car dealership chains in the US, posted third-quarter profit and revenue that beat expectations on rising new car sales and growth in its aftermarket repair business.
* AbbVie Inc. raised its profit outlook for this year and next as demand for newer biologic drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq helped fill the gap left by falling Humira sales.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0570
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2121
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 149.56 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.4% to $33,702.26
* Ether fell 1.3% to $1,774.32
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.83%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.83%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.3% to $85.16 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 1% to $2,016.60 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
We shall find peace.  We shall hear the angels, we shall see the sky sparkling with diamonds. –Anton Chekov, 1860-1904.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

October 26,1902: Elizabeth Cady Stanton, an American pioneer in the fight for voting rights for women, died.
In 1984: “Baby Fae,” a newborn with a severe heart defect, was given the heart of a baboon in an experimental transplant, in Loma Linda, Calif. She lived 21 days with the animal heart.
In 2005: 17 Alberta oil field workers shared a $54 million Lotto 6-49 lottery win. Go to article >>

2,000-year-old decorated Roman sandal unearthed in Spain
Archaeologists in Spain used a pulley system to reach the bottom of a well, where they found a 2,000-year-old Roman sandal and other artifacts.

Scientists found a way for two black holes to orbit each other forever without colliding
Contrary to conventional wisdom, a pair of black holes could exist in perfect pairs without leading to a cataclysmic merger, new research suggests. All it takes is a dose of cosmic expansion

In a 1st, AI neural network captures ‘critical aspect of human intelligence’
Scientists have demonstrated that an AI system called a neural network can be trained to show “systematic compositionality,” a key part of human intellect.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Monterrey, Mexico
People visit an art installation named Altar Monumental, created for the annual Day of the Dead festivities in an attempt to set a Guinness World Record for the largest altar of the dead in history
Photograph: Daniel Becerril/Reuters

The bigger picture category student winner: Viktor Nunes Peinemann
As waves crash over a shallow reef in Kimbe Bay, schools of Chromis dart among Acropora corals. The water movement is strong enough that even the sturdy corals bend and sway. But sights like this are becoming rarer and rarer as Acropora corals throughout the Indo-Pacific have suffered high mortality in recent years

​​​​​​​Necks, please
A colony of mute swans at the Abbotsbury Swannery in Dorset. There are around 600 birds at the swannery, which was established by Benedictine monks.
Photograph: Stephen Smith
Market Closes for October 26^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	32784.30	-251.63
		-0.76%
S&P 500	4137.23	-49.54
		-1.18%
NASDAQ	12595.61	-225.61
		-1.76%
TSX	18875.31	-72.54
		-0.38%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	30601.78	-668.14
		-2.14%
HANG SENG	17044.61	-40.72
		-0.24%
SENSEX	63148.15	-900.91
		-1.41%
FTSE 100*	7354.57	-59.77
		-0.81%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	4.002	4.118
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.759	3.881
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.8445	4.9549
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9861	5.0860

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7236	0.7245
US $	1.3819	1.3803

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4597	0.6851
US $	1.0563	0.9467

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1983.30	1963.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	83.21	86.04

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1929, the Harvard Economic Society declared that “despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the seventh day, dropping 0.4%, or 72.54 to 18,875.31 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level in at least a year.
Waste Connections Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.6%.
Celestica Inc. had the largest drop, falling 10.3%.
Today, 124 of 227 shares fell, while 97 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 2.6%, heading for the worst year since 2022
* This month, the index fell 3.4%
* So far this week, the index fell 1.3%
* The index declined 2.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 7.3% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week low and 9.4% below its high on Feb. 2, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.4% in the past 5 days and fell 3.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 on a trailing basis and 13.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.01t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 13.39% compared with 14.33% in the previous session and the average of 14.07% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -38.0365| -2.8| 0/11
Industrials | -35.7403| -1.4| 9/17
Materials | -19.1806| -0.8| 19/31
Energy | -17.2347| -0.5| 19/18
Consumer Discretionary | -3.9347| -0.6| 4/10
Consumer Staples | -2.6126| -0.3| 3/8
Health Care | -0.5140| -1.0| 1/3
Real Estate | 0.5440| 0.1| 8/13
Communication Services | 0.8612| 0.1| 3/2
Utilities | 6.4172| 0.9| 10/4
Financials | 36.8626| 0.7| 21/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Waste Connections | -22.5900| -6.6|n/a | -1.4
Shopify | -19.8000| -3.5|n/a | 37.3
Constellation | | | |
Software | -9.2500| -2.4|n/a | 31.1
TD Bank | 6.2860| 0.6|n/a | -11.7
Bank of Montreal | 6.4270| 1.2|n/a | -13.5
RBC | 10.7300| 1.0|n/a | -13.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rebound in tech giants faded in late hours as Amazon.com Inc. whipsawed after reporting earnings.
Intel Corp. climbed after its results, while Ford Motor Co. sank on disappointing numbers.
A $192 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was little changed in late trading.
The tech-heavy sank nearly 2% Thursday.
The selloff also put the S&P 500 on the brink of a “correction” — with the gauge down almost 10% from its July peak.
Treasury yields fell as economic data suggesting inflation pressures continue to dissipate despite solid growth kept traders betting on a Federal Reserve pause.
Traders also kept a close eye on geopolitical developments, with Israel’s military saying it killed Hamas’s deputy head of intelligence, who it said was responsible for helping plan the Oct. 7 attacks.
The army overnight also made a limited ground raid into northern Gaza. Oil dropped below $84 a barrel.
The euro edged lower as the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged as expected.
Two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, dropped eight basis points to 5.04%.
Swap contracts project 32% odds for one more Fed hike in the current tightening cycle.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the surge in longer-term bond yields in recent months is a reflection of a strong economy and expectations that interest rates may have to stay higher for longer.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 71% of the investors polled don’t think the 10-year yield — which recently hit 5% — has peaked.
They expect it to keep increasing, with the median expectation for the peak at 5.5%.
Nineteen percent see the yield peaking at or above 6%.
“The stock market isn’t ready to rally until bond yields are sharply lower, which probably won’t happen until we see inflation a lot closer to the Fed’s target,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst for the Americas at Oanda.
The US economy grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years last quarter amid a surge in consumer spending.
A closely watched measure of underlying inflation cooled more than expected to the slowest pace since 2020.

Corporate Highlights:
* Mastercard Inc. fell after the payments network predicted revenue growth for the coming quarter that undercut analyst forecasts, even as consumers continued to weather rising rates with robust spending on their cards.
* Western Digital Corp. sank after deal negotiations with Kioxia Holdings Corp. broke down, quashing hopes for a combination of their flash memory businesses.
* Hasbro Inc. slid after reporting quarterly results that missed Wall Street estimates on sales and earnings and lowering its annual revenue forecast due to a softer toy market heading into the holiday season.
* Harley-Davidson Inc. sank as profit missed estimates and sales plunged amid elevated borrowing costs in the US and economic weakness around the globe.
* Comcast Corp. retreated after reporting drops in broadband and cable subscribers, and predicting more losses to come.
* Hertz Global Holdings Inc. slid after missing profit estimates as it grapples with higher depreciation costs for its vehicles, which were unusually low in 2022.
* International Business Machines Corp. gained as it reported better-than-expected sales and affirmed its full-year outlook, suggesting the company’s focus on software and hybrid cloud services is paying off.
* First Citizens Bancshares Inc., the regional lender that acquired Silicon Valley Bank when it failed in March, said deposits beat estimates helped by growth in its direct bank channel. The shares rallied.
* Bunge Ltd. climbed after raising its earnings outlook after posting third-quarter profits that blew up beyond the highest estimates.

Key events this week:
* China industrial profits, Friday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
* US PCE deflator, personal spending and income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Exxon Mobil earnings, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0556
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2121
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 150.42 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.8% to $34,048.4
* Ether rose 0.2% to $1,791.9
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 11 basis points to 4.84%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.86%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.60%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $83.48 a barrel
* Gold futures were little changed
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Isabelle Lee and Michael Mackenzie.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“It’s better to look ahead and prepare, than to look back and regret.” — Jackie Joyner-Kersee

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Humans and Neanderthals mated 250,000 years ago, much earlier than thought
A comparison of the genomes of a Neanderthal who lived 120,000 years ago in Siberia with those from modern humans in sub-Saharan Africa has revealed insight into the migratory and interbreeding history of both species.

Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet is ‘unavoidable,’ study finds
British Antarctic Survey researchers have found that the rate at which ice is melting and contributing to sea level rise will accelerate in the next century, regardless of actions to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

How to watch the full ‘Hunter’s Moon’ get eclipsed this weekend
October’s full ‘Hunter’s Moon’ will drift into Earth’s shadow for a partial eclipse on Oct. 28.

Ancient face carvings exposed along Amazon river
Human faces sculpted into stone up to 2,000 years ago have appeared on a rocky outcropping along the Amazon River amid decreasing water levels.

Scientists detect fastest-ever fast radio bursts, lasting just 10 millionths of a second
Astronomers have captured ultrafast radio bursts from 3 billion light-years away for the first time ever. Read more.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Cheshire, UK
The Lovell Telescope at Jodrell Bank in fog at sunrise on the Cheshire plain. After exceptional rainfall last weekend, which led to flooding in some areas, low temperatures are bringing on autumnal weather
Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Staffordshire, UK
The sun rises over Mow Cop Castle
Photograph: Carl Recine/Reuters

​​​​​​​Hau Giang, Vietnam
Vendors sell vegetables at Vi Thanh market
Photograph: Nhac Nguyen/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 25^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	33035.93	-105.45
		-0.32%
S&P 500	4186.77	-60.91
		-1.43%
NASDAQ	12821.23	-318.65
		-2.43%
TSX	18947.85	-38.64
		-0.20%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	31269.92	+207.57
		+0.67%
HANG SENG	17085.33	+93.80
		+0.55%
SENSEX	64049.06	-522.82
		-0.81%
FTSE 100*	7414.34	+24.64
		+0.33%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	4.118	4.012
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.881	3.766
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.9549	4.8229
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.0860	4.9381

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7245	0.7277
US $	1.3803	1.3742

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4585	0.6856
US $	1.0566	0.9464

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1963.65	1973.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	86.04	84.39

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1929, following the so-called “Black Thursday” panic, the New York Times carried a full-page ad sponsored by 35 top brokerage firms, urging the public to buy stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% to close at 301.22.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the sixth day, dropping 0.2%, or 38.64 to 18,947.85 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level in at least a year.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 135 of 227 shares fell, while 90 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.9%. Dye & Durham Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 11.4%.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 2.3%, heading for the worst year since 2022
* This month, the index fell 3%
* The index declined 0.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 7.9% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 9.1% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 0.5% above its low on Oct. 4, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.6% in the past 5 days and fell 4.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4 on a trailing basis and 13.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.01t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.33% compared with 14.41% in the previous session and the average of 14.09% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -54.2909| -3.8| 0/11
Financials | -24.9423| -0.4| 15/13
Materials | -15.6995| -0.7| 10/41
Real Estate | -6.7385| -1.6| 0/21
Communication Services | -3.1171| -0.4| 1/4
Health Care | -1.8249| -3.3| 0/4
Consumer Discretionary | 0.1552| 0.0| 3/11
Utilities | 1.5343| 0.2| 10/4
Consumer Staples | 6.1895| 0.7| 6/5
Industrials | 15.8796| 0.6| 7/19
Energy | 44.2098| 1.2| 38/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -41.5200| -6.9|n/a | 42.3
Brookfield Corp | -13.7300| -3.2|n/a | -3.5
Constellation | | | |
Software | -4.2760| -1.1|n/a | 34.3
Canadian National | 6.5140| 1.1|n/a | -8.9
Waste Connections | 8.9110| 2.7|n/a | 5.6
Canadian Natural | | | |
Resources | 9.6950| 1.5|n/a | 17.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A giant exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) whipsawed in late hours as a post-earnings rally in Meta Platforms Inc. failed to spur a rebound after the tech-heavy gauge’s worst slide of 2023.
Wall Street grappling with a batch of corporate earnings sent stocks lower on Wednesday amid heightened Treasury volatility, with traders also keeping an eye on the latest geopolitical developments.
The S&P 500 dropped about 1.5%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 2.5% as Google’s parent Alphabet Inc.’s disappointing cloud figures outweighed Microsoft Corp.’s sales.
A gauge of chipmakers slid 4.1% on Texas Instruments Inc.’s bearish forecasts.
“The question now turns to earnings as earnings drive stock prices,” said Howard Ward, chief investment officer of Growth Equities and portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. “This is where the rubber meets the road. A recession would result in higher unemployment, less consumer spending, slower gross domestic product growth and lower earnings, which implies lower stock prices.”
Longer-dated US yields outpaced those in shorter-maturity bonds — a process known as “bear steepening.”
Economists often look to the Treasury market for clues about when a recession might come. Specifically, they examine the so-called yield curve. When it’s “inverted,” as it has been since about mid-2022, that almost always means a recession is looming. But by mid-2023, the curve began to “disinvert” – or steepen in industry parlance — in a way that raised the question of whether the US had managed to dodge a recession or whether one was about to start.
Treasury yields surged Wednesday after poor demand for a sale of five-year notes deepened anxiety about auction size increases expected to be announced next week.
Yields were already rising before the auction, reinforced by stronger-than- expected September new home sales data.
Thirty-year US yields climbed 15 basis points to 5.09%, while those on two-year notes were little changed at 5.12%.
The yield on 10-year bonds advanced 13 basis points to 4.95%.
Elsewhere, the yen dropped to its weakest level this year against the dollar as the wide yield gap with the US continued to weigh on the Japanese currency.
The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged for a second straight meeting, but left the door open to more tightening even as officials forecast weaker economic growth.
The loonie declined.
Oil topped $85 a barrel after a news report that Israel agreed to delay the ground invasion of Gaza to protect US troops.

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. maintained its cash-flow target and said it’s moving ahead with higher aircraft output, reassuring investors even as manufacturing defects forced the company to lower its annual delivery goal for the top-selling 737 model.
* Apple Inc. raised prices of its Apple TV+, Arcade gaming and News+ subscription services on Wednesday, in a move that could generate more revenue for its increasingly key services division.
** It’s also planning an end-to-end overhaul of its Air Pods lineup, refreshing a product category that’s emerged as one of the company’s biggest sellers.
* Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. are facing a new round of regulatory challenges, with the Federal Reserve proposing lower caps on the fees banks and payment companies can charge merchants when consumers swipe their debit cards at checkout.
* T-Mobile US Inc. posted third-quarter profits that beat estimates, buoyed by better-than-expected mobile customer gains.
* Short-seller Carson Block said he’s shorting Sunrun Inc. again, part of a short theme he calls the “ESG hustle.”
** Sunrun says it fully stands behind its reporting of metrics, including subscribers, in response to the short report from Muddy Waters released earlier Wednesday.
* Deutsche Bank AG said it will accelerate payouts to shareholders, seeking to lift the lender’s stock and close a valuation gap with peers. It’s also starting another round of job cuts.
* Worldline SA sent a fresh shockwave through Europe’s fintech sector on Wednesday, cutting its sales outlook and warning of economic challenges that pushed its stock down by more than half.

Key events this week:
* European Central Bank interest rate decision; President Christine Lagarde holds news conference, Thursday
* US wholesale inventories, GDP, US durable goods, initial jobless claims, pending home sales, Thursday
* Intel, Amazon earnings, Thursday
* China industrial profits, Friday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
* US PCE deflator, personal spending and income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Exxon Mobil earnings, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0568
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2113
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 150.06 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.3% to $34,761.32
* Ether rose 1.1% to $1,790.6
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 12 basis points to 4.94%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.89%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.61%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.8% to $85.26 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,992 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Edward Dufner.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“The measure of who we are is what we do with what we have.”– Vince Lombardi

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Webb telescope spots never-before-seen feature in Jupiter’s atmosphere
Jupiter was one of the first targets observed by the James Webb Space Telescope when it initially turned its infrared gaze on the universe in July 2022. After capturing stunning images that surpassed the expectations of astronomers, the space observatory has now revealed a never-before-seen feature in the gas giant’s atmosphere. Read more.

Jurassic pliosaur ‘megapredator’ was a giant ‘sea murderer’
The earliest pliosaur ‘megapredator’ helped rule the oceans 170 million years ago during the age of dinosaurs

Amazon’s ‘flying rivers’ of vapor are drying up in an unprecedented drought. Here’s how to save them.
A record drought, combined with a strong El Niño, is wreaking havoc on the Amazon. If steps aren’t taken to curb illegal mining and deforestation, the ecosystem could collapse.

‘Ghost’ of ancient river-carved landscape discovered beneath Antarctica
Satellite data have revealed an ancient landscape that may have escaped erosion and been preserved beneath the East Antarctic ice sheet since the continent froze over 34 million years ago.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

New York, US
A woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) is installed as part of the Secret World of Elephants exhibition at the American Museum of Natural History
Photograph: Timothy A Clary/AFP/Getty Images

Kent, UK
Sweet chestnuts on a bed on leaves on a forest floor near Ashford
Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA

Volunteer pickers during the grape harvest season
Photograph: Adam Vaughan/EPA
Market Closes for October 24^th, 2023

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	33141.38	+204.97
		+0.62%
S&P 500	4247.68	+30.64
		+0.73%
NASDAQ	13139.88	+121.55
		+0.93%
TSX	18986.49	-60.25
		-0.32%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	31062.35	+62.80
		+0.20%
HANG SENG	16991.53	-180.60
		-1.05%
SENSEX	Market Closed	N.A.
FTSE 100*	7389.70	+14.87
		+0.20%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	4.012	4.010
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.766	3.775
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.8229	4.8460
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9381	5.0006

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7277	0.7304
US $	1.3742	1.3691

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4554	0.6871
US $	1.0591	0.9442

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1973.00	1988.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	84.39	86.39

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1978: President Jimmy Carter signed the Airline Deregulation Act, freeing U.S. air travel from price controls and route restrictions.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fifth day, dropping 0.3%, or 60.25 to 18,986.49 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level in at least a year.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.2%.
Teck Resources Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 8.9%.
Today, 104 of 227 shares fell, while 118 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index fell 2.1%, heading for the worst year since 2022
* This month, the index fell 2.8%
* The index advanced 0.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 8.9% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 1.1% above its low on Oct. 24, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 3.6% in the past 5 days and fell 4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4 on a trailing basis and 13.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.02t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.41% compared with 14.46% in the previous session and the average of 14.08% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -43.4612| -0.8| 10/17
Energy | -22.6203| -0.6| 16/24
Industrials | -21.6514| -0.9| 9/16
Materials | -7.3616| -0.3| 35/15
Consumer Staples | -3.2021| -0.4| 4/7
Health Care | 1.2332| 2.3| 2/2
Real Estate | 1.5896| 0.4| 12/8
Utilities | 1.8624| 0.3| 7/8
Consumer Discretionary | 5.5378| 0.8| 10/4
Communication Services | 8.2332| 1.1| 5/0
Information Technology | 19.5932| 1.4| 8/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -22.0700| -2.2|n/a | -12.4
Teck Resources | -15.2600| -8.9|n/a | -4.3
RBC | -9.2680| -0.9|n/a | -13.3
Brookfield Corp | 3.6610| 0.9|n/a | -0.3
Restaurant Brands | 4.4520| 2.3|n/a | 5.0
Shopify | 16.7900| 2.9|n/a | 52.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A $201 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) whipsawed in late hours as Microsoft Corp. climbed, while Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. dropped after reporting earnings.
The results came after the end of a session marked by a rebound in stocks, with the S&P 500 halting a five-day slide.
Also after the closing bell, Texas Instruments Inc. gave a disappointing revenue forecast and Visa Inc. reported profit that beat Wall Street estimates.
Treasury 10-year yields edged lower.
Oil declined below $84 a barrel.
Bitcoin briefly topped $35,000.
Investors looking to the earnings season for a dose of good news are hanging their hopes on big tech.
The five largest companies in the S&P 500 account for about a quarter of the benchmark’s market capitalization.
Their earnings are projected to jump 34% from a year earlier on average, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
“As these big tech stocks go, so does the overall market,” said David Trainer, chief executive officer of New Constructs. “If big tech companies blow their numbers out of the water and provide strong guidance for future earnings, then we could see the stock market rally strongly through the end of the year.”
Rising rates have made already stretched big tech valuations look increasingly expensive, with the group remaining the most-crowded trade among fund managers, according to Bank of America Corp.
The pain in long-duration growth stocks, fueled in recent weeks by a relentless surge in Treasury yields, is finally on the verge of subsiding. That is, at least, if the so-called Taylor Rule is anything to go by.
The equation, posited by Stanford economist John Taylor in 1993, has become a way to measure how the Federal Reserve can use its overnight bank lending rate to tame inflation or stimulate the economy.
Now, it’s approaching a critical inflection point for the US equity market by signaling that the central bank has finally normalized rates.
In economic news, US business activity picked up in October after back-to-back months of stagnation, helped by a rebound in factory demand and an easing in service-sector inflation “The US economy is generating growth, but it still must digest the ‘last mile’ of policy tightening in our view,” said Don Rissmiller of Strategas. “We would be more convinced that the growth we are seeing was high-quality or sustainable growth if the labor market was re-balanced (with labor demand equal to supply). Until then, the risk remains that continued restrictive monetary policy becomes too restrictive.”
Elsewhere, Chinese President Xi Jinping stepped up support for the economy, issuing additional sovereign debt, raising the budget deficit ratio and even making an unprecedented visit to the central bank.
Bank of Japan officials are likely to monitor bond yield movements until the last minute before making a decision on whether to adjust the yield curve control program at a policy meeting next week, according to people familiar with the matter.

Corporate Highlights:
* Verizon Communications Inc. posted third-quarter earnings that broadly beat analysts’ estimates.
* 3M Co. boosted its full-year adjusted profit and cash flow targets as it reported third-quarter results that easily topped Wall Street estimates.
* General Electric Co. raised its forecast for profit and free cash flow for the year as rebounding demand for air travel drives growth in its increasingly critical aerospace business.
* RTX Corp.’s profit topped Wall Street expectations and the company announced a $10 billion share-buyback program as it works to contain fallout from a costly quality lapse in its marquee engine for commercial aircraft.
* General Motors Co. can no longer say if it will make up to $14 billion in profit this year because a United Auto Workers strike, now in its sixth week, has made the company’s financial future too difficult to predict.
* Meta Platforms Inc. was sued by California and a group of more than 30 states over claims that its social-media platforms Instagram and Facebook exploit youths for profit and feed them harmful content.
* Barclays Plc lost as much as $2.7 billion in market value on Tuesday after inaugurating the reporting season for UK banks by lowering its forecast for lending profitability.

Key events this week:
* Australia CPI, Wednesday
* Germany IFO business climate, Wednesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* US new home sales, Wednesday
* IBM, Meta earnings, Wednesday
* European Central Bank interest rate decision; President Christine Lagarde holds news conference, Thursday
* US wholesale inventories, GDP, US durable goods, initial jobless claims, pending home sales, Thursday
* Intel, Amazon earnings, Thursday
* China industrial profits, Friday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
* US PCE deflator, personal spending and income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Exxon Mobil earnings, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $1.0592
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.2163
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 149.88 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 7.1% to $33,787.3
* Ether rose 3.9% to $1,776.25
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.82%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.83%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $83.62 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,984.10 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Isabelle Lee and Jeran Wittenstein.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection, we can catch excellence.” —Vince Lombardi

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
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Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

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