Category: Events

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

May 13, 1950: The first Formula One World Championship season kicks off.
May 13, 2002: Jimmy Carter became the first present or former U.S. president to visit Cuba since Fidel Castro seized power in 1959. Go to article >>

Stevie Wonder, b.1950.

“Frasier,” the television sitcom set in Seattle but filmed in Los Angeles, in 2004 airs its last show after an 11-year run. The show debuts in 1993, just as Seattle is beginning to receive notoriety for grunge music, its coffee, and its dot-com business boom. Kelsey Grammer (Frasier) portrays a call-in psychiatrist at a fictitious radio station. The view from Frasier’s ritzy condo looks over a compressed downtown with an impossible view of the Space Needle. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

Papua New Guineans, genetically isolated for 50,000 years, carry Denisovan genes that help their immune system, study suggests
Genes inherited from Denisovans, extinct human relatives, may help Papua New Guineans in the lowlands fight off infection, while mutations to red blood cells may help highlanders live at altitude. Read More.

Stone with 1,600-year-old Irish inscription found in English garden
Investigations show the stone is inscribed with a message in ogham, an Irish alphabet used from the fourth century A.D.. Read More.

Earth from space: Majestic ‘yin-yang’ crater sits atop a dormant volcano in Turkey
The massive caldera of Turkey’s Mount Nemrut volcano is split in half, with one side made of solidified lava flows and the other half a deep crater lake. Covered in snow, the summit scene looks like the yin-yang symbol when viewed from above. Read More.

James Webb telescope detects 1-of-a-kind atmosphere around ‘Hell Planet’ in distant star system
Using the James Webb Space Telescope, scientists have discovered evidence of a carbon-rich atmosphere around the hellish world 55 Cancri e. This marks the best evidence yet of an atmosphere around a rocky exoplanet.
Read More.

Meta just stuck its AI somewhere you didn’t expect it — a pair of Ray-Ban smart glasses
Ray-Ban smart glasses will now use Meta AI virtual assistant software so that wearers can speak with their smart glasses and ask questions about what they’re looking at. Read More.

The iconic Porsche 911 is going hybrid
A hybrid model of Porsche’s signature model, with its gas engine assisted by at least one battery-powered electric motor, will officially be revealed in an online event later this month.

Hear Jerry Seinfeld’s advice to 2024 grads
The comedian was Duke University’s 2024 commencement speaker, offering graduates some unconventional advice.

Auroras light the sky during rare solar storm
See the dazzling Auroras created around the globe by a series of solar flares and coronal mass ejections from the sun.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Soberania national park, Panama
A keel-billed toucan (Ramphastos sulfuratus) pictured on Global Big Day 2024, a worldwide birdwatching event
Photograph: Bienvenido Velasco/EPA

I think I saw a mouse
Photograph: Debby Thomas/Comedy Pet Awards 2024

​​​​​​​Las Vegas, Nevada
The aurora borealis lights up the night sky over the desert
Photograph: David Becker/Zuma Press/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for May 13^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39431.51	-81.33
		-0.21%
S&P 500	5221.42	-1.26
		-0.02%
NASDAQ	16388.24	+47.37
		+0.29%
TSX	22259.17	-49.76
		-0.22%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38179.46	-49.65
		-0.13%
HANG SENG	19115.06	+151.38
		+0.80%
SENSEX	72776.13	+111
		+0.15%
FTSE 100*	8414.99	-18.77
		-0.22%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.683	3.696
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.533	3.552
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4865	4.4963
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6289	4.6386

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7314	0.7318
US $	1.3672	1.3665

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4749	0.6780
US $	1.0787	0.9270

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2343.80	2372.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.26	79.26

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1999, Barbie went high-tech in one of the most disastrous deals in modern history. Toy company Mattel acquired The Learning Co., a maker of educational software, for $3.51 billion. After 16 months and $342 million in restructuring charges, Mattel sold it on to Gores Technology Group for no cash up front, assumption of debt and a percentage of future profits, bringing the total loss to about $4 billion.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.2%, or 49.76 to 22,259.17 in Toronto.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.8%.
Torex Gold Resources Inc. had the largest drop, falling 5.0%.
Today, 123 of 223 shares fell, while 96 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on May 10, 2024 and 19.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is unchanged in the past 5 days and rose 1.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.54t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.49% compared with 9.59% in the previous session and the average of 8.70% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -23.1009| -0.8| 10/39
Industrials | -13.3472| -0.4| 13/13
Energy | -12.3356| -0.3| 21/20
Information Technology | -7.7606| -0.5| 4/6
Utilities | -3.5162| -0.4| 7/7
Consumer Staples | -1.6328| -0.2| 6/5
Real Estate | -0.6219| -0.1| 12/8
Health Care | 0.7247| 1.2| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary | 1.6870| 0.2| 8/5
Communication Services | 2.8629| 0.4| 3/1
Financials | 7.2901| 0.1| 10/17
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Cameco | -8.0180| -3.8| 14.2| 17.2
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -7.6290| -1.0| -49.0| 7.0
Manulife Financial | -5.8110| -1.3| 57.1| 20.0
Sun Life Financial | 3.1080| 1.1| 77.0| 0.8
Dollarama | 4.0720| 1.8| -20.2| 26.1
RBC | 18.7000| 1.4| 2.7| 6.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street kicked off the week on a cautious note, with traders positioning for key inflation data that will help shape the outlook for Federal Reserve policy and global financial markets.
Stocks, bonds and the dollar saw small moves just a few days ahead of the key consumer price index.
The gauge is projected to show moderation while still remaining too high to warrant rate cuts. On Monday, a Fed Bank of New York survey highlighted an increase in expectations for inflation.
Some prominent trading desks are warning that investors should gear up for a potential break in the calm that’s come over stocks.
The options market is betting the S&P 500 will move 1% in either direction after Wednesday’s CPI, according to Andrew Tyler at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
“The key risk is a hotter CPI print,” Tyler said. “But upcoming macro data creates a two-tailed risk — with one tied to stronger-than-expected growth fueling inflation concerns and the other being weaker growth fueling either recession or ‘stagflation’ concerns.”
US stocks and bonds are facing upside risk this week as traders keep building long positions, said Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Scott Rubner.
Commodity trading advisors’ equity and fixed-income demand is notable, with a so-called “green sweep” showing up in most of Goldman’s models.
This means investors  will keep piling in even if the market goes down.
The S&P 500 hovered near 5,220. Heavily shorted companies got a lift as GameStop Corp. soared after a cryptic X post from Keith Gill, known as “Roaring Kitty,” who gained notoriety during the 2021 meme-stock frenzy.
US 10-year yields fell one basis point to 4.48%.
The all-important inflation data arrive just as a three-week rally had the S&P 500 knocking on the door of its record highs, noted Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“An extension of the rally could depend on whether investors still feel positive about rate cuts after this week’s numbers.”
Before Wednesday’s CPI, economists will parse producer prices data on Tuesday to assess the impact of categories that feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak Tuesday.
“Squeeze risks for rate-sensitive laggards on a CPI miss outweigh downside risks on a CPI beat,” said Ohsung Kwon at Bank of America Corp.
“With further hikes ruled out, we think equities may be able to tolerate higher inflation. An in-line print should also be net positive, removing the inflation overhang at least in the near term.”
Stalled-out progress on inflation is probably going to trigger a decline in US equities in the coming months, according to Stifel Nicolaus & Co.’s Barry Bannister.
The S&P 500 will likely drop roughly 10% in the second or third quarter to around 4,750, he noted.
A “merely in-line” US inflation report this week “would likely be enough for further risk-asset gains,” according to HSBC strategists led by Duncan Toms.
The stock market “setup” has left it at a critical juncture, according to Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
The fact that equities saw a material decline in April, followed by a nice bounce leaves them vulnerable to a “double top” — which is one of the most-bearish signals in technical analysis.
“If this week’s inflation data creates a substantial reversal, it’s going to be a very negative development,” Maley said. “If, however, this week’s data creates a further rally — one that pushes the major indices meaningfully above their 2024 highs — it’s going to be extremely bullish.”
If recent hot prints prove to be a blip in a disinflationary process, one or two cuts starting in the fall may be reasonable, according to Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds at Glenmede.  
But that timeline may undergo further revisions if inflation stays sticky, they say.
It’s difficult to justify buying stocks now due to elevated interest rates, weakening growth and meager potential returns, according to JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic.
“We don’t see enough of a return to warrant taking on equity risk at this juncture,” he noted.
“The macro outlook is uncertain and for equities, we are entering into a seasonally tricky time of the year, with a challenging combination of inflation at risk of staying too high, profit margin pressures, and elevated positioning.”
Lofty US equity valuations suggest investors have already priced in a lot of stock market enthusiasm, but that doesn’t mean they should start selling, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The S&P 500 already is higher than Goldman’s year-end target of 5,200, but the fundamental backdrop for share prices remains “very good,” Ben Snider, senior strategist on Goldman’s US portfolio strategy team, said in an interview. He’s optimistic about stocks down the road because of strong earnings from US companies and confidence in the path of disinflation.
Investors ready to trim or ditch their stock exposure because they are worried the S&P 500 is losing steam after a double-digit run up since October should look to history for reasons to stay committed to their US equity allocations.
Since the 1930s, missing out on the 10 best days per decade for the benchmark would have yielded a 66% gain — a fraction of the roughly 23,000% return staying invested through those days would have generated, according to data from Bank of America Corp.
More importantly, those best days have come after the worst days for stocks, when selling was likely most tempting, the bank’s analysis showed.
In a week that also sees the release of retail sales, guidance from giants Walmart Inc. and Home Depot Inc. will provide some insight into consumer sentiment amid signs of rising joblessness.
Historically, consumer confidence has moved inversely to the two-year/10-year US Treasury yield spread, according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“With curves likely to steepen when rate cuts start, which we forecast by September, it’s unclear whether consumers will view good news as good news or whether cuts will come too late — when consumer moods have worsened as excess savings have been depleted and when a recoupling of the relationship indicates recession, not a soft landing,” she noted.
Still, analysts are ratcheting up earnings forecasts for the current quarter at the swiftest pace in two years, suggesting that the worst of Corporate America’s profit slump may be firmly in the rear-view mirror.
With nearly 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported for this earnings season, upbeat first-quarter results have pushed Wall Street to boost profit projections for the three months through June, Bloomberg Intelligence data show.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. has closed in on an agreement with OpenAI to use the startup’s technology on the iPhone, part of a broader push to bring artificial intelligence features to its devices, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Intel Corp. is in advanced talks with Apollo Global Management over a deal that would have the investment firm providing more than $11 billion in funding for a chip manufacturing plant in Ireland, the Wall Street Journal said.
* Johnson & Johnson sold $4 billion of bonds to help finance its $13.1 billion acquisition of Shockwave Medical Inc., the latest blue-chip firm to seize on thriving debt markets to fund purchases.
* Nasdaq Inc. is considering a sale of Solovis, a provider of portfolio-management software and services, as the exchange operator seeks to slim down following its largest-ever acquisition, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. is reaching out to potential buyers of the £7 billion ($8.8 billion) Boots drugstore chain in the UK, according to people familiar with the matter.
* UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said that he intends to stay at the helm of the Swiss bank until the task of absorbing Credit Suisse is complete, meaning his second stint leading the global wealth manager could stretch to almost four years.
* Anglo American Plc rejected a second approach from BHP Group that valued the miner at $43 billion, as pressure builds on the 107-year old company to lay out a compelling vision to survive on its own.

Key events this week:
* Germany CPI, ZEW survey expectations, Tuesday
* Bank of England Economist Huw Pill speaks, Tuesday
* US PPI, Tuesday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot speak, Tuesday
* China rate decision, Wednesday
* Eurozone industrial production, GDP, Wednesday
* US CPI, retail sales, business inventories, empire manufacturing, Wednesday
* Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks, Wednesday
* Japan GDP, industrial production, Thursday
* US housing starts, initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday
* Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks, Thursday
* Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks, Thursday
* Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Thursday
* China property prices, retail sales, industrial production, Friday
* Eurozone CPI, Friday
* US Conf. Board leading index, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0789
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2555
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 156.22 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $63,160.48
* Ether rose 1.1% to $2,955.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.51%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.17%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $79.22 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1% to $2,337.33 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jessica Menton, Alexandra Semenova, Natalia Kniazhevich, Vince Golle and Craig Stirling.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Making the simple complicated is commonplace; making the complicated simple, awesomely simple – that’s creativity. –Charles Mingus, 1922-1979.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

May 10, 1877: US President Rutherford B. Hayes has 1st White House telephone installed, in the telegraph room.

NASA details plan to build a levitating robot train on the moon
NASA’s plan to build a train track on the moon is part of the agency’s Innovative Advanced Concepts program, which aims to develop “science fiction-like” projects for future space exploration. Read more.

Cosmic ‘superbubbles’ might be throwing entire galaxies into chaos, theoretical study hints
When there are multiple supernovas in the same galaxy, they can leave enormous voids that tamper with the balance between dark matter and regular matter. Over time, this can throw entire galaxies into chaos.

Collapse of Earth’s magnetic field may have fueled evolution of life 600 million years ago
The planet’s magnetic field may have collapsed around 600 million years ago, enabling a major oxygenation event and perhaps supercharging evolution. Read more.

New invention transforms any smartphone or TV display into a holographic projector
Scientists have developed a method for creating 3D holograms using “incoherent light” emitted from mobile devices — turning iPhone 14 Pro into a projector. Read more.

Elephants use ear flaps, rumbles, trunk reaches and other forms of communication to greet peers, new research suggests. Read more.

Lab-made universal blood could revolutionize transfusions. Scientists just got one step closer to making it.
Enzymes produced by gut bacteria can remove long sugar chains in type A and B blood, leading to improved compatibility with type O. Using gut bacteria, scientists have come one step closer to “universal” donor blood, where any blood type can donate to any other.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dunhuang, China
Tourists riding camels visit Mingsha Mountain And Crescent Spring during the May Day holiday in Dunhuang
Photograph: Zhang Xiaoliang/VCG/Getty Images

Tandem surfing … a pair of bottlenose dolphins jump out of the sea at New Quay Bay in west Wales, UK.
Photograph: Sarah Michelle Wyer/pictureexclusive.com

​​​​​​​Marseille, France
Fireworks go off after the French 19th-century three-masted barque Belem arrived at the Vieux-Port during the Olympic Flame ceremony ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games in Marseille
Photograph: Christophe Simon/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 10^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39512.84	+125.08
		+0.32%
S&P 500	5222.68	+8.60
		+0.16%
NASDAQ	16340.87	-5.39
		-0.03%
TSX	22308.93	-66.90
		-0.30%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38229.11	+155.13
		+0.41%
HANG SENG	18963.68	+425.87
		+2.30%
SENSEX	72664.47	+260.30
		+0.36%
FTSE 100*	8433.76	+52.41
		+0.63%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.696	3.626
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.552	3.506
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4963	4.4570
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6386	4.6105

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7318	0.7312
US $	1.3665	1.3676

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4730	0.6789
US $	1.0779	0.9277

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2372.45	2309.05
Oil
WTI Crude Future	79.26	78.99

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1965, a young, crew-cut Warren Buffett took control of the decrepit textile maker Berkshire Hathaway, whose shares traded at $18 each. Today Berkshire’s Class A shares trade at $615,835.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 22,308.93 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.3% on April 30 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.6%.
CI Financial Corp. had the largest drop, falling 12.1%.
Today, 115 of 223 shares fell, while 104 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.6%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Dec. 22
* The index advanced 8.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 19.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.55t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.59% compared with 9.54% in the previous session and the average of 8.55% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -52.9088| -3.1| 3/6
Energy | -26.3706| -0.6| 12/29
Financials | -1.5712| 0.0| 15/12
Communication Services | -1.4580| -0.2| 4/1
Real Estate | -1.0094| -0.2| 8/12
Materials | -0.9185| 0.0| 24/25
Consumer Discretionary | -0.3962| -0.1| 5/8
Health Care | -0.2074| -0.3| 1/3
Utilities | 2.1359| 0.2| 9/5
Industrials | 7.0796| 0.2| 14/12
Consumer Staples | 8.7281| 1.0| 9/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -40.6400| -5.6| 115.9| -21.9
Sun Life Financial | -20.1200| -6.7| 209.3| -0.3
Constellation Software | -12.4900| -2.4| 47.6| 13.7
Manulife Financial | 5.1800| 1.2| 61.2| 21.6
TD Bank | 7.6970| 0.8| -10.4| -9.6
Enbridge | 7.8800| 1.0| 9.4| 8.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market struggled to gain much traction after data pointed to an economy that is slowing amid stubborn inflation, posing a challenge to the outlook of Federal Reserve policy.
Equities wavered and bond yields rose following a report that showed US consumer sentiment declined to a six-month low as short-term inflation expectations picked up.
While a slowdown in key sectors has encouraged bets on Fed rate cuts, a chorus of officials continued to echo the higher-for-longer mantra as they try to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
“The Fed is walking a tightrope as they balance both mandates of price stability and growth,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial. “Although it’s not our base case, we do see rising risks of ‘stagflation’ — a concern markets will have to deal with.”
The S&P 500 hovered near 5,220, while notching its third straight week of gains — the longest winning run since February.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for an eighth straight session.
Treasury 10-year yields advanced five basis points to 4.50%.
Fed swaps showed traders have fully priced in a rate cut by November, and a second reduction by the January meeting.
Although inflation data has overshadowed most other reports this year, it’s important to remember that consumer spending is the main pillar that has been holding up the economy, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance.
“Today’s lower-than-expected consumer sentiment numbers are a warning sign that the consumer shouldn’t be taken for granted,” he noted. “In addition, inflation expectations have been rising as well — which is a double whammy for the Fed.”
Zaccarelli also noted that if spending slows down and inflation increases, “we’ll get the opposite of the Goldilocks scenario that many were hoping for.”
In such case, the Fed would be in “an especially difficult position of choosing between accommodating a slowing economy and fighting increasing inflation expectations,” he concluded.
Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan noted it’s still too early to think about lowering borrowing costs, while Governor Michelle Bowman said she doesn’t expect it will be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates in 2024.
Meantime, Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he doesn’t think inflation is stuck above the target despite recent data showing price pressures picked up at the start of the year.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking after the central bank’s April 30-May 1 meeting, said policymakers would likely keep rates high for some time. He also said he didn’t see “stagflation” regarding growth or inflation.
A litany of weaker-than-estimated data points — from jobs to services and manufacturing — has sent the US version of Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index to the lowest since January 2023.
The gauge measures the difference between actual releases and analyst expectations.
“Economic growth slowed sharply in the first quarter and will likely be slow in the rest of 2024, too,” said Bill Adams at Comerica Bank. “Financial markets still expect the Fed to start cutting rates by year-end, with two quarter-percentage- point cuts more likely than one.”
Among the several aspects of Friday’s consumer sentiment report, Peter Boockvar also cited the fact that the higher-for-longer interest rate situation has led to a plunge in buying conditions for big-ticket items.
“I said a few years ago when the Fed was aggressively raising interest rates that I was more worried about a death by a thousand cuts economic response, rather than a big immediate economic event/decline, and I’m sticking to that,” said the author of The Boock Report.
“This sure feels much more like a 1.5% type economy rather than the 3%-ish that some think we’re still in,” he added.
To Don Rissmiller at Strategas, some central banks like the Fed have taken a more hawkish tone as both growth and inflation data have been choppy.
“Any confirmation of a wobble in the US labor market will likely tip the scale to rate cuts in short order,” he noted. “We would expect to hear more talk of the Fed’s dual mandate to justify such a pivot.”
Looking ahead, traders will be focused on Powell’s remarks during an event on Tuesday and a deluge of economic reports — with the highlight being the consumer price index on Wednesday.
“We see the balance of risks around the CPI print tilted slightly bullish rates,” said Bank of America Corp. strategists including Mark Cabana.
Real rates look attractive as carry remains positive through October, but choppy markets may keep investors on the sidelines, according to Gennadiy Goldberg and Oscar Munoz at TD Securities.
“We expect gradually moderating growth and inflation data to continue pushing rates lower in late-2024 as we look for the Fed to start easing in September,” they noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* McDonald’s Corp. is looking to launch a $5 meal deal in the US that the burger chain is betting can lure penny-pinching consumers back in.
* Target Corp. won’t sell LGBTQ-themed merchandise in some stores during Pride Month in June, after a backlash dented revenue last year.
* Novavax Inc. signed a $1.2 billion licensing agreement with Sanofi that includes commercializing a combined Covid-19 and flu shot.
* US regulators’ decision on whether to approve Moderna Inc.’s vaccine for RSV has been delayed due to “administrative constraints” at the Food and Drug Administration, as the company works to get its second product to market.
* 3M Co. was raised to buy at HSBC, which noted the company’s earnings showed nascent signs of an “inflection in growth and margin gains from restructuring” at the manufacturing giant.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. saw April sales jump 60% as sustained artificial-intelligence demand was helped by the beginnings of a recovery in consumer electronics.
* Sweetgreen Inc.’s shares surged after the salad chain increased its annual sales projection and showed improved profitability as it seeks to expand its footprint.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0772
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2527
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 155.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.3% to $60,598.01
* Ether fell 4.1% to $2,898.26
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.50%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.52%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.17%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $78.33 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,363.83 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“ Life is the art of drawing without an eraser.”– John W Gardner

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

May 9, 1502: Christopher Columbus leaves Cádiz, Spain, on his fourth and final trip to the New World

65 million-year-old cow relative looked like a chinchilla and weighed only a pound
Militocodon lydae, a mammal that looked like a chinchilla but is more closely related cows, roamed what is now Colorado after the nonavian dinosaurs went extinct.

Remains of vast 7,000-year-old farming settlement found in a ‘huge void’ in Serbia
Archaeologists discovered a previously unknown Neolithic settlement in Serbia and then fully mapped the “exceptional” site.

James Webb telescope measures the starlight around the universe’s biggest, oldest black holes for 1st time ever
Astronomers using the James Webb Space Telescope have separated the light of a quasar from the light of its surrounding stars, offering unprecedented insight into how the universe’s oldest black holes grew.

New mRNA vaccine for deadly brain cancer triggers a strong immune response
COVID-19 vaccine development paves way to a new class of cancer immunotherapy. For the first time, scientists have tested a messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine in a patient with a deadly form of brain cancer — and it triggered a strong immune response.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Trat, Thailand
Pink skunk clownfish hide among the pale white stinging tentacles of a bleached sea anemone in a reef affected by coral bleaching from high water temperature. Extreme heat has driven Thai sea temperatures to record highs, causing severe damage to marine ecosystems
Photograph: Sirachai Arunrugstichai/Getty Images

Moscow, Russia
Service members march in columns past an honour guard during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 79th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in the second world war
Photograph: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

​​​​​​​Singapore
A visitor takes a photo of an art installation titled Moss wall by Icelandic-Danish artist Olafur Eliasson during a preview of his exhibition, Olafur Eliasson: Your curious journey, at the Singapore Art Museum
Photograph: How Hwee Young/EPA
Market Closes for May 9^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39387.76	+331.37
		+0.85%
S&P 500	5214.08	+26.41
		+0.51%
NASDAQ	16346.27	+43.51
		+0.27%
TSX	22375.83	+116.67
		+0.52%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38073.98	-128.39
		-0.34%
HANG SENG	18537.81	+223.95
		+1.22%
SENSEX	72404.17	-1062.22
		-1.45%
FTSE 100*	8381.35	+27.30
		+0.33%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.626	3.630
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.506	3.512
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4570	4.4937
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6105	4.6390

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7312	0.7286
US $	1.3676	1.3725

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4746	0.6782
US $	1.0782	0.9275

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2309.05	2319.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.99	78.99

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1929, the forerunner of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange was established, just in time to suffer through the worst depression in modern history.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 22,375.83 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Manulife Financial Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.7%.
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 11.1%.
Today, 129 of 223 shares rose, while 91 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 2%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Nov. 17
* The index advanced 8.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 19.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.5% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.54t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.54% compared with 9.45% in the previous session and the average of 8.45% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 57.6555| 2.1| 38/12
Financials | 38.5968| 0.6| 14/12
Energy | 25.5716| 0.6| 25/16
Utilities | 5.1190| 0.6| 11/4
Industrials | 2.5424| 0.1| 13/13
Real Estate | 2.1606| 0.5| 11/9
Communication Services | 1.5142| 0.2| 4/1
Health Care | -0.2411| -0.4| 1/2
Consumer Staples | -2.4676| -0.3| 6/5
Consumer Discretionary | -2.4683| -0.3| 3/10
Information Technology | -11.3181| -0.6| 3/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Manulife Financial | 20.0900| 4.7| 37.1| 20.2
Nutrien | 11.9000| 4.5| 10.6| 6.6
Suncor Energy | 11.3700| 2.4| 124.8| 29.4
CGI Inc | -3.8110| -1.9| 7.5| -1.9
Intact Financial | -4.7520| -1.6| 1.8| 12.2
Shopify | -6.5060| -0.9| 10.1| -17.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market climbed to its highest level since early April, extending a rebound that’s been fueled by speculation the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this year.
Equities rose as higher-than-estimated jobless claims reinforced bets on US policy easing — with the market extending gains after a $25 billion sale of 30-year bonds saw good demand.
The S&P 500 topped 5,200 amid below-average volume. The advance in stocks has also been attributed to Commodity Trading Advisors — who surf momentum — being modeled to buy shares this week.
“Our sense is that the rebound has been unloved, largely because economic surprises have turned modestly negative, and we believe this is likely to lead to additional near-term upside,” said Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research. “Looking out to year end,
we expect to remain constructive on the outlook.”
To Doug Ramsey at Leuthold, another 10% gain in the S&P 500 isn’t out of the question, at least statistically.
He analyzed 80 years of data on bull-market rallies, focusing on those that happened when unemployment was this low and the economic cycle this mature.
If the current rally meets the prior records for length and height, the S&P 500 would end the year at 5,705.
The S&P 500 traded less than 1% away from its all-time high.
Apple Inc. climbed as Bloomberg News reported the company will deliver some of its upcoming artificial-intelligence features this year via data centers equipped with its own in-house processors.
Nvidia Corp. led losses in chipmakers.
Treasury 10-year yields declined four basis points to 4.46%.
The pound rose, despite growing confidence the Bank of England can soon begin loosening policy.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows investors are practically split on the S&P 500’s next 10% move — with 52% betting the benchmark gauge will go higher and 48% seeing a down move.
“To the extent that conviction in the next big move in asset prices remains mixed, expect correlations to remain low and stock picking and micro themes to dominate,” said Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V.
When it comes to the Treasury market, 68% of those surveyed by the firm believe the 10-year yield is going to 4% next — while only 32% said 5%.
Senyek at Wolfe Research noted that he’d remain constructive in equities unless the economy shows signs of spilling into recession, or inflation is sticky enough that the market starts to price in a Fed hike.
“Neither are part of our base case!” he said.
Initial applications for US unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest level since August, topping estimates.
US policymakers are keeping a close eye on labor demand and wage growth as they debate when it might be appropriate to ease policy.
Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said rates are currently restraining the economy, but it may take “more time” to return inflation to their goal.
“Time will tell whether it’s a one-off or part of a genuine cooldown in the labor market,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Investors may have adjusted to the idea of the Fed waiting until September to cut interest rates, but that doesn’t mean they’re comfortable waiting indefinitely.”
Blackstone Inc. President Jon Gray said economic growth will slow as stubborn inflation weighs on the Fed’s ability to begin lowering borrowing costs.
“We see a deceleration of growth,” Gray said at the Macquarie Australia Conference in Sydney on Thursday.
“Central banks will be slow on the cutting of rates, because they don’t want to see a rise of inflation,” he said. “The Fed will be patient, they’ll have the opportunity to cut once this year,” he added.
If the economy is slowing, unemployment rising, inflation receding, and the Fed is expected to cut rates, there will be plenty of buyers for US Treasury notes and bonds, according to Joe Kalish at Ned Davis Research.
“But make no mistake. When conditions change, prices can change too – and quickly!”
Kalish noted that the buyers of bonds are now different from the buyers of bonds during the quantitative-easing era.
Currently, buyers are price-sensitive, and the burden has mostly fallen on households, he added.
“There will always be a price to clear the market,” he noted. “So now we are just haggling over the price.”

Corporate Highlights:
* The US Securities and Exchange Commission is scrutinizing statements that Boeing Co. made about its safety practices following a near-tragic January accident aboard one of its 737 Max 9 planes.
* United States Cellular Corp. jumped after a Wall Street Journal report that T-Mobile US Inc. and Verizon Communications Inc. are nearing separate deals to buy parts of the telecommunications company.
* Equinix Inc., a real estate investment trust that owns data centers, surged after saying it has “substantially” wrapped up an internal investigation of its accounting, which found that its financial reporting has been accurate.
* Arm Holdings Plc gave a lukewarm revenue forecast for the fiscal year, raising concerns that the tech industry’s artificial intelligence spending spree is slowing.
* Gaming giant Roblox Corp. reported a forecast for bookings that fell short of analysts’ estimates, the latest sign of widespread struggles in the video-game industry.
* Google parent Alphabet Inc. has been progressing in talks to acquire marketing software provider HubSpot Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* Airbnb Inc. sank after the home-rental company gave lackluster guidance for a second straight quarter, indicating that growth in travel spending will slow ahead of the peak summer season.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Zaslav has ordered his lieutenants to find additional opportunities for cost-cutting in order to hit financial targets for the next couple years, people with knowledge of the matter said.

Key events this week:
* UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
* ECB publishes account of April policy meeting, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0782
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2523
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 155.44 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $62,439.08
* Ether rose 2.4% to $3,020.35
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.46%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.50%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.14%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $79.61 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.5% to $2,343.95 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a wonderful evening everyone!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“ Genius is eternal patience.”– Michelangelo Di Lodovico Buonarroti Simoni

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: VE Day; Victory in Europe Day.
Carolann is away from the office for a conference, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Victory in Europe Day is the day celebrating the formal acceptance by the Allies of World War II of Germany’s unconditional surrender of its armed forces on Tuesday, 8 May 1945; it marked the official end of World War II in Europe in the Eastern Front, Read More.
May 8, 1846: First major battle of the Mexican–American War fought at Palo Alto, Texas
May 8, 1886 Jacob’s Pharmacy in Atlanta sells the first Coca-Cola (contained cocaine)
May 8, 1899 Ernest Rutherford publishes his discovery of two different kinds of radiation (Alpha and Beta Particles)

Epic NASA video takes you to the heart of a black hole — and destroys you in seconds
What would it be like to fall past the event horizon of a black hole? A new NASA simulation provides a peek into the bizarre physics of spaghettification.

Japan captures 1st image of space debris from orbit, and it’s spookily stunning
A new Japanese mission to photograph space junk from orbit marks a milestone in orbital debris cleanup efforts.

2,500-year-old Illyrian helmet found in burial mound likely caused ‘awe in the enemy’
Archaeologists excavating a burial mound in Croatia have discovered a 2,500-year-old Illyrian helmet that may have been a votive offering. Read More.

Hoard of 17th-century coins hidden during English Civil War unearthed during kitchen renovation
During a kitchen renovation, a family in England unexpectedly discovered a hoard of coins that was likely buried for safekeeping during the first English Civil War. Read More.

‘A dream come true’: Nuclear clock breakthrough could revolutionize study of the universe’s fundamental forces
By nudging a thorium-229 nucleus into a higher energy state, physicists have made it possible to develop a nuclear clock that could probe the most fundamental forces in physics. However, there is still a long way to go. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Marseille, France
People on boats accompany the Belem, a three-masted sailing ship, as it arrives into the Old Port carrying the Olympic flame, for the Paris Olympics 2024
Photograph: Benoît Tessier/Reuters

Qiqihar, China
A red-crowned crane guards its chick and egg at Zhalong national nature reserve. The reserve is the world’s largest habitat and reproduction base for the birds with more than 380 bred in captivity being released into the wild
Photograph: Xinhua/Rex/Shutterstock

Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil
Tourists view Iguazú Falls, which are currently at full water capacity due to rainfall
Photograph: Kiko Sierich/Reuters
Market Closes for May 8^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39056.39	+172.13
		+0.44%
S&P 500	5187.67	-0.03
		—
NASDAQ	16302.76	-29.80
		-0.18%
TSX	22259.16	-31.47
		-0.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38202.37	-632.73
		-1.63%
HANG SENG	18313.86	-165.51
		-0.90%
SENSEX	73466.39	-45.46
		-0.06%
FTSE 100*	8354.05	+40.38
		+0.49%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.630	3.584
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.512	3.470
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4937	4.4570
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6390	4.5974

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7286	0.7281
US $	1.3725	1.3734

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4753	0.6778
US $	1.0750	0.9302

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2319.60	2294.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.99	78.48

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1929, John Clifton Bogle, future founder of the Vanguard Group of Investment Cos., is born in Montclair, N.J., to homemaker Josephine Hipkins Bogle and William Yates Bogle, Jr., a manufacturing executive and former aviator.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.1% at 22,259.16 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.3% on April 30 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 2 of 11 sectors lost; 74 of 223 shares fell, while 146 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 18.5%.
Insights
* The index advanced 8.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 19.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.4% in the past 5 days and was unchanged in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.54t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.45% compared with 9.78% in the previous session and the average of 8.35% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology| -153.3138| -8.1| 6/4
Health Care | -1.0531| -1.6| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary| 1.0677| 0.1| 6/7
Communication Services| 3.1220| 0.4| 2/3
Real Estate | 3.2514| 0.7| 16/4
Materials | 7.3492| 0.3| 25/22
Consumer Staples | 7.5846| 0.8| 11/0
Utilities | 8.9801| 1.1| 14/1
Industrials | 13.9957| 0.5| 19/8
Energy | 19.5799| 0.5| 25/16
Financials | 57.9582| 0.9| 20/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
| Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -165.5000| -18.5| 132.7| -16.5
Cameco | -4.5860| -2.1| -4.0| 21.6
NexGen Energy | -4.5680| -12.3| 246.6| 13.5
Constellation Software | 8.9770| 1.7| 18.9| 16.3
TD Bank | 11.5500| 1.2| -22.4| -10.2
RBC | 12.2000| 0.9| -42.7| 4.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s enthusiasm for stocks faded as many traders were reluctant to keep piling in after a solid rally in early May.
The S&P 500 closed little changed, remaining below the 5,200 mark that it briefly touched this week.
Tesla Inc. and Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. led losses in megacaps.
Intel Corp. sank as it expects revenue to fall “below the midpoint” of previously issued projections after a US ban on chip exports to Huawei Technologies Co.
Treasuries remained lower after a $42 billion sale of 10-year bonds saw tepid demand.
“All of these ingredients create a perfect recipe for an excuse for investors to take a step back after the recent bounce and reassess things,” said strategists at Bespoke Investment Group.
Lack of conviction among investors to buy into the recent bounce in US stocks shows the market is far from turning fully bullish, said Citigroup Inc. strategists.
The recent unwind of short positions has left the S&P 500 close to one-sided net long, but investors appear hesitant to add to the existing bullish positions, a team led by Chris Montagu noted.
“Flows tell a story of limited enthusiasm with a trickle of new long positions and only marginal increase in risk appetite,” Montagu said.
The S&P 500 hovered near 5,190, following its biggest four- day advance since November. Treasury 10-year yields rose three basis points to 4.49%.
Following a pullback last month, equities resumed their advance in early May as solid corporate earnings bolstered sentiment and speculation grew that the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates this year.
The recent rally brought the S&P 500 about 1% away from its all-time high.
Yet the bounce off April’s lows was a narrow one, noted Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
“That’s not the end of the world,” he said. “But it would be a lot more positive if this rally can broaden out over the coming days and weeks — given that the market is a lot more expensive than it was at this time last year.”
A surge in the S&P 500 since the end of October through April had pushed the equity gauge to trade at 20 times projected profits, some 11% above its 10-year average.
Traders are now looking for reasons to justify the high valuations and want to see bigger growth ahead.
The recent stock rally signaled that traders are more driven by “fear of missing out” than confidence about fundamentals as there is still uncertainty as to where earnings go from here and few market catalysts on the horizon, according to David Bahnsen, chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group.
“With no rate cuts possible until July and not likely until September, and the next earnings season two months from starting, there are no apparent catalysts to change the near future direction of stocks other than speculation around what various data points,” he noted.
Inflation figures due next week will offer fresh insights about the US economy after employment data out Friday showed the labor market is cooling.
Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins signaled Wednesday that interest rates will likely need to be held at a two-decade high for longer than previously thought to damp demand and reduce price pressures.
“Despite the lack of good news on inflation, there is a silver lining for patient investors,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “As the Federal Reserve extends the timeline for interest rate cuts, historical data shows that longer Fed pauses often correlate with better equity returns. This should give investors reasons to be optimistic.”
Indeed, longer pauses have been constructive for equities, according to a study conducted by Ryan Grabinski at Strategas.
“The longest pause from June 2006 to September 2007 was associated with the best equity market return,” he noted. “We are reaching the point where a Fed cut is probably more likely to mean issues are perking up.”
Robust corporate earnings will continue to lift the S&P 500 to 5,500 by the end of this year as profit margins improve, according to Societe Generale SA.
“Profits are the glue in this cycle,” the firm’s head of US equity strategy Manish Kabra wrote, adding that 2024 should be considered “an inflationary year, rather than stagflationary” as earnings-per-share growth is poised to accelerate further.
S&P 500 companies crushed earnings-growth expectations again in the first quarter, driving upward momentum in consensus for top and bottom lines, but guidance suggests a heavy dependence on margin to meet future expectations, according to
Gina Martin Adams at Bloomberg Intelligence.
“Earnings are well on the recovery path now that the 2022-2023 earnings recession is past, and they should return to double-digit growth with widespread participation later this year,” she noted. “However, sales growth is expected to hover in the low-to mid-single digit range through 2026, suggesting the earnings recovery is so far mostly about margin expansion amid cost-cutting and easing inflation pressures.”
There’s been a resurgence of earnings per share as several industries emerge from “EPS rolling recessions,” according to Erin Browne and Emmanuel Sharef at Pacific Investment Management Co.
That means different equity sectors experience earnings downturns at different times and then recover, one after the other, over a span of several quarters.
The growth sector of the S&P 500 — dominated by technology— went through an EPS recession in 2022 and then recovered in 2023 — while most other sectors’ EPS were contracting, they added.
“As we progress through 2024, we expect defensive and cyclical stocks will emerge from their earnings contractions, potentially leading to significant price appreciation,” they noted. “Macro trends and supportive bottom-up signals have us modestly overweight equities in multi-asset portfolios.”
Against a backdrop of slowing job growth and slumping consumer confidence, investors will now turn their focus to the earnings of retailing giants like Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. to gauge shoppers’ spending habits.
Both firms are due to report over the next couple weeks, with the potential to sway expectations for economic growth and retail shares, which are trailing the broader market in 2024.
Meantime, utility companies are beating the S&P 500 at a blistering pace since the equity benchmark bottomed last month, a defensive shift that poses a roadblock for the bulls in the short-run if traders are using bond-proxy sectors as leadership stocks.
The utilities sector, which includes companies providing electricity, water and gas that are known for their consistent dividend payments, has climbed by 11% in 15 sessions through Tuesday — a sizzling rate that was last exceeded in the depths of the pandemic in 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Corporate Highlights:
* Uber Technologies Inc. reported gross bookings in the first quarter that missed analysts’ estimates with softer-than- expected demand in Latin America and earlier holidays weighing on orders.
* Lyft Inc. reported first-quarter results and financial guidance that beat investors’ expectations, a sign of the company’s ability to retain and attract new riders in the US and Canada.
* Rivian Automotive Inc. fell short of Wall Street’s earnings expectations to start the year as the automaker pursues a costly effort to revamp its manufacturing operations and boost output of electric vehicles.
* Shopify Inc. shares tumbled after the Canadian e-commerce company pledged to continue investing in marketing even though doing so will pinch profits.
* Chinese iPhone shipments jumped about 12% in March after Apple Inc. and its retailers slashed prices, official data showed, suggesting efforts to arrest an accelerating decline in sales are yielding early results.
* Pfizer Inc. has agreed to settle more than 10,000 cases accusing it of hiding the cancer risks of its Zantac heartburn drug, according to people familiar with the deal, the biggest of the litigation.
* Reddit Inc. jumped as improvements to the social-media platform’s advertising system helped push quarterly sales higher than expected in its first results as a public company.
* Brookfield Asset Management reported its first quarterly decline in profit since it spun out of its parent company amid a drop in fees from some permanent capital vehicles.

Key events this week:
* Bank of Japan issues summary of opinions from April policy meeting, Thursday
* China trade, Thursday
* UK BOE rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
* ECB publishes account of April policy meeting, Friday
* BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0745
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2497
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 155.62 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $62,180.27
* Ether fell 1.6% to $3,000.6
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.49%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.46%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.14%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $79.21 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,309.04 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Farah Elbahrawy and Jessica Menton.

Have a wonderful day everyone!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shabnam
“All great art contains at its center contemplation, a dynamic contemplation.”– Susan Sontag

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
On May 7, 1945, Germany signed an unconditional surrender at Allied headquarters in Rheims, France, to take effect the following day, ending the European conflict of World War II. Go to article >>
1955: West European Union formed.
May 7, 2000: Vladimir Putin becomes President of Russia.

1824: Premiere of Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony.

Pyotr Tchaikovsky, composer, b. 1840.
Gary Cooper, actor, b. 1901.
Eva Peron, Argentina’s “Evita”, b.1919.

Here’s what happened at the Met Gala
The Met Gala, an annual, invitation-only event, was held Monday in New York City. See photos from one of fashion’s biggest nights.

Kremlin critic wins Pulitzer Prize
Vladimir Kara-Murza, a prominent Russian human rights advocate and Kremlin critic, has won the Pulitzer Prize for commentary written from his prison cell.

Siberia’s ‘gateway to the underworld’ is growing a staggering amount each year
The Batagay megaslump — a 3,250-foot-wide (990 meters) depression in the permafrost in the Russian Far East — is “actively growing” by a massive amount every year, scientists have found. Read More.

Iron Age necropolis that predates Rome unearthed near Naples
The excavations have recovered weapons, necklaces, bracelets and worked bones. Read More.

Earth from space: Mysterious wave ripples across ‘galaxy’ of icebergs in Arctic fjord
A puzzling arc was spotted in the water of a Greenland fjord littered with iceberg fragments. There are a couple of possible explanations for this bizarre phenomenon but we will likely never know what caused it,
experts say. Read More.

Mars may have been more Earth-like than we thought, discovery of oxygen-rich rocks reveals
Newfound rocks on Mars suggest the planet may have once sported an oxygen-rich atmosphere, making it more Earth-like and hospitable to life than previously thought. Read More.

‘Major lunar standstill’ may reveal if Stonehenge is aligned with the moon
Is Stonehenge aligned with the moon? Scientists hope to find out during a rare “major lunar standstill,” which happens once every 18.6 years. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Wehrheim, Germany
A deer stands in deep grass near Frankfurt
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Stroud, UK
The Miserden Morris dancing group perform at sunrise on Rodborough Common as part of the May Day celebrations
Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty

​​​​​​​Hastings, UK
Participants attend the annual May Day bank holiday Jack In The Green parade and festival in East Sussex
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters
Market Closes for May 7^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38884.26	+31.99
		+0.08%
S&P 500	5187.70	+6.96
		+0.13%
NASDAQ	16332.55	-16.70
		-0.10%
TSX	22290.62	+31.15
		+0.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38835.10	+599.03
		+1.57%
HANG SENG	18479.37	-98.93
		-0.53%
SENSEX	73895.54	+17.39
		+0.02%
FTSE 100*	8313.67	+100.18
		+1.22%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.584	3.612
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.470	3.507
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4570	4.4833
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5974	4.6338

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7281	0.7317
US $	1.3734	1.3667

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4764	0.6773
US $	1.0750	0.9302

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2294.45	2294.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.48	78.11

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1825, one of the earliest buying frenzies for an American IPO was reported when the Bank of Southwark went public in Philadelphia. Investors hired muscular goons to sign their names into the subscription books, and “noses were smashed, hats jammed in, and the police court was at work over the wounded for weeks after.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fifth day, climbing 0.1%, or 31.15 to 22,290.62 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since April 9.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.1%.
Finning International Inc. had the largest increase, rising 3.5%.
Today, 104 of 223 shares rose, while 111 fell; 4 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 8.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 19.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.7% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.53t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.78% compared with 9.79% in the previous session and the average of 8.30% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 26.4163| 0.6| 25/12
Materials | 23.2820| 0.9| 36/13
Information Technology | 1.0468| 0.1| 5/5
Communication Services | 0.1890| 0.0| 4/1
Utilities | -0.4031| 0.0| 4/10
Consumer Discretionary | -0.7620| -0.1| 6/7
Health Care | -0.7785| -1.2| 0/4
Real Estate | -3.3788| -0.7| 4/16
Financials | -3.4011| -0.1| 8/18
Consumer Staples | -4.9737| -0.6| 2/9
Industrials | -6.0830| -0.2| 10/16
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 10.4300| 1.1| 6.5| -11.3
Canadian Natural Resources | 7.7310| 1.0| -41.4| 20.8
Nutrien | 6.9880| 2.7| -11.8| 1.6
WSP Global | -3.8200| -2.0| 16.5| 15.5
Bank of Montreal | -4.3630| -0.7| 16.7| -3.7
RBC | -4.8220| -0.4| 9.8| 3.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The rally that has powered stocks in May struggled gain much traction on Tuesday, with investors split on whether the market can sustain the advance given all the economic crosscurrents.
Equities are set for a consolidation amid stretched positioning, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists.
Meantime, a pair of contrarian sentiment indicators from Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. are on the cusp of levels that say it’s time to snap up shares.
And Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Commodity Trading Advisors have lifted their stock exposure and are expected to keep buying regardless of the market direction this week.
Stocks have been trying to make a comeback after April’s rout, with gains fueled by prospects of Federal Reserve rate cuts and solid earnings.
While the S&P 500 recently broke above a key technical level, Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. says he’d like to see a bit more upside follow-through to confirm the “break.”
“We continue to see a path higher for stock prices as long as fundamental conditions remain stable and profit growth remains on a positive trend,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“Elevated interest rates and sticky inflation, along with the Fed holding monetary policy at restrictive levels for longer than most expected at the start of the year, introduce some added risks.”
The S&P 500 briefly hit 5,200.
Peloton Interactive Inc. soared as CNBC reported that a number of private-equity firms are mulling a buyout.
Walt Disney Co. sank on a weak subscriber outlook.
Apple Inc. saw a small gain after unveiling a new artificial intelligence-focused iPad Pro and a larger iPad Air.
Treasury 10-year yields fell three basis points to 4.45%.
A $58 billion sale of three-year notes garnered solid demand.
This week’s offerings also include $42 billion of 10-year notes Wednesday and $25 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday.
Despite resilient consumption and artificial-intelligence optimism, US economic growth slid last quarter while inflation stayed high.
Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said Tuesday it’s likely the central bank will keep rates where they are “for an extended period of time” until officials are certain prices are on track to their target.
Economists at Morgan Stanley changed their forecast for the timing of the Fed’s first cut to September from July because of “lack of progress” on inflation.
US growth momentum is resilient, but likely slowing, and that could weigh on equities, which have decoupled from the Fed by assuming that an acceleration in growth was lying ahead, a JPMorgan team led by Mislav Matejka wrote.
The equity rally “created a complacent technical picture,” with sentiment and positioning indicators still near highs, despite some recent consolidation, they said.
“While internals improved, our breadth indicators remain in confirmed sell signals,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler in a note titled “Not Out of the Woods Yet.”
The biggest buyers of US equities, American companies, are back in the market and ready to drive the next leg of the stock rally, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
About a sixth of the $934 billion in estimated share repurchases this year are expected get executed in May and June, the firm’s tactical specialist Scott Rubner wrote.
All major Bank of America Corp. client groups offloaded US equities last week, quantitative strategists at the firm said Tuesday.
Institutional clients, hedge funds and retail investors sold a net $4.6 billion of US stocks in the five-day period ended Friday, a team led by Jill Carey Hall said in a note.
Meantime, buying options to protect against a stock-market plunge hit the cheapest in nine years this week.
As the CBOE Volatility Index — or VIX, which measures expected swings in equity markets — sank over the past couple weeks, so did an index tracking the implied volatility of VIX options, known as the VVIX.
The VVIX finished Monday’s session just above 73, its lowest closing value since May 2015.
The index advanced Tuesday, while holding well below its one-year average of 89.
“Over the near term, US benchmarks can continue to push back toward their recent 2024 highs,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“However, we do not believe that the signals for further volatility ahead have been canceled/negated at this time — and thus we continue to watch for another potential down-leg in US equities over the coming weeks.” To Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management, investors should stay vigilant on a range of economic and geopolitical risks that could send market volatility back up again.
“Investors can mitigate such volatility and keep their portfolios on track by diversifying and balancing across asset classes,” she noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* Palantir Technologies Inc. tumbled as the market appeared unimpressed by the company’s outlook for annual sales after the stock has tripled in the past year.
* Instacart is partnering with Uber Technologies Inc. to offer restaurant delivery through the Instacart app — taking on the top US food delivery app, DoorDash Inc.
* Boeing Co. has been in crisis mode ever since the near-catastrophic accident on a 737 Max 9 in early January — and there’s little sign it’s catching a break anytime soon as the next investigation looms — this time involving the flagship 787 Dreamliner model.
* Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. expects to produce Boeing Co. 737 Max aircraft bodies at a lowered rate for the rest of the year, pressuring its finances as the two companies work to improve quality in their factories.
* Lucid Group Inc. revealed a wider-than-expected loss to start the year as the company contends with production challenges and uneven demand for high-end electric vehicles.
* Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox gaming division will shut down four subsidiaries, including the game studio Arkane Austin, according to an email reviewed by Bloomberg.
* Truist Financial Corp. boosted its revenue forecast for the year after it completed the sale of a majority stake in its insurance-brokerage business.
* UBS Group AG returned to profit after two loss-making quarters, cementing sustained progress in the integration of Credit Suisse after its emergency rescue last year.

Key events this week:
* Toyota earnings, Wednesday
* Germany industrial production, Wednesday
* Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan issues summary of opinions from April policy meeting, Thursday
* China trade, Thursday
* UK BOE rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
* ECB publishes account of April policy meeting, Friday
* BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0756
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2509
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 154.65 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $63,018.51
* Ether fell 0.9% to $3,049.32
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.45%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 10 basis points to 4.12%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,315.07 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova, Carly Wanna, Thyagu Adinarayan and Michael Msika.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Logic will take you from A to B.  Imagination will take you everywhere. -Albert Einstein, 1879-1955.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

May 6, 1527: Sack of Rome.
On May 6, 1937, the hydrogen-filled German dirigible Hindenburg burned and crashed in Lakehurst, N.J., killing 36 of the 97 people on board. Go to article >>

Sigmund Freud, founder of psychoanalysis, b. 1856.
Orson Welles, b. 1915.
George Clooney, b. 1961.

The 2024 Met Gala is today
Stars will soon showcase a plethora of bold and outlandish outfits at the Met Gala in New York. Read about this year’s theme.

Free Madonna concert attracts 1.6 million to Brazil’s Copacabana beach
More than a million people braved the heat of Rio de Janeiro to see the end of Madonna’s “Celebration” world tour.

Mystik Dan wins 150th Kentucky Derby in a dramatic photo finish
Did you watch the Kentucky Derby on Saturday — yay or neigh? In case you missed it, here are photos from the thrilling finish at Churchill Downs.

What is a vegetable?
Fun fact: The term vegetable doesn’t exist botanically. Here’s why you should eat them anyway.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nevşehir, Turkey
Hot air balloons fly over the Cappadocia region, which is famous for its fairy chimneys
Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock

Waterlooville, UK
The Green Man and his queen perform during the Celtic fire festival Beltain in Hampshire in southern England. The modern participatory arts event celebrates the Gaelic May Day festival and marks the beginning of summer. Historically it was widely observed in Ireland, Scotland and the Isle of Man
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Bulacan, the Philippines
People across the country have sort ways to stay cool during a deadly heatwave that has led to school closures and triggered urgent health warnings across south-east Asia
Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock
Market Closes for May 6^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38852.27	+176.59
		+0.46%
S&P 500	5180.74	+52.95
		+1.03%
NASDAQ	16349.25	+192.92
		+1.19%
TSX	22259.47	+312.06
		+1.42%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38236.07	-37.98
		-0.10%
HANG SENG	18578.30	+102.38
		+0.55%
SENSEX	73895.54	+17.39
		+0.02%
FTSE 100*	8213.49	+41.34
		+0.51%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.612	3.648
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.507	3.553
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.4833	4.5077
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6338	4.6645

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7317	0.7314
US $	1.3667	1.3672

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4718	0.6794
US $	1.0770	0.9285

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2294.45	2294.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.11	78.11

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1870, Amadeo Giannini was born. In San Francisco in 1904 he founded the Bank of Italy to serve the city’s burgeoning working class. It later financed the Golden Gate Bridge and lent David Selznick the money to finish filming “Gone With the Wind.” Today, as Bank of America, it is one of the world’s biggest financial-services firms.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 1.4%, or 312.06 to 22,259.47 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.6% on Feb. 15.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 187 of 223 shares rose, while 32 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.8%.
Aritzia Inc. had the largest increase, rising 6.1%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain seven times. The next day, it advanced six times for an average 0.7% and declined 0.5% once
* The index advanced 8.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 19.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.48t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.79% compared with 8.85% in the previous session and the average of 8.23% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 72.4144| 1.1| 24/2
Energy | 61.5976| 1.5| 38/2
Industrials | 52.7268| 1.7| 23/4
Information Technology | 52.1264| 2.8| 8/2
Materials | 47.7803| 1.8| 43/6
Utilities | 11.5905| 1.4| 13/2
Consumer Staples | 5.6840| 0.6| 9/2
Real Estate | 4.5624| 1.0| 16/3
Consumer Discretionary | 2.5624| 0.3| 7/6
Communication Services | 1.8073| 0.3| 4/1
Health Care | -0.8025| -1.2| 2/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 32.2800| 3.8| 70.6| 2.4
Constellation Software | 15.4400| 3.1| 29.6| 14.1
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 15.2600| 2.2| -35.7| 6.3
Bausch Health | -0.8480| -3.8| 62.5| -3.4
First Quantum Minerals | -1.0410| -1.1| -6.7| 69.3
Restaurant Brands | -1.6170| -0.7| -22.3| -0.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks saw their best three-day rally since November, fueled by speculation the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this year.
The S&P 500 rose 1% after topping its average price of the past 50 days — a level seen by many chartists as key in maintaining the positive sentiment.
A solid earnings season kept driving optimism after a pullback that made some areas of the market attractive.
While the below-average trading volume raised concern about the sustainability of the advance, most industries gained.
“Bulls will be looking to maintain their momentum after snatching last week from the jaws of bears,” according to Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“This week is light on high-profile economic data, but heavy on Fed members hitting the speaking circuit.
Traders will be dissecting any comments they make about potential rate cuts.”
The US equity benchmark rose above 5,180.
Nvidia Corp. and  Tesla Inc. paced gains in mega-caps.
Micron Technology Inc. jumped on an analyst upgrade.
Apple Inc. fell, with Warren Buffett revealing he’d cut his stake even after heaping praise on the iPhone maker.
Treasury 10-year yields slid two basis points to 4.49%.
Traders also kept an eye on the latest geopolitical developments, with Israel rejecting a statement from Hamas that it had accepted a cease-fire proposal to end the fighting in Gaza.
Oil closed higher.
Following Jerome Powell’s not-very-hawkish tone last Wednesday, investors waded through remarks from some of the many Fed officials due to speak this week.
Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said he expects high rates to slow the economy further and cool inflation to the 2% target.
His New York counterpart John Williams said eventually there will be rate cuts — but the decision on when will depend on the totality of the data.
Despite pressure from still elevated rates, strong corporate results have justified high stock valuations, according to strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute.
“Solid corporate earnings keep us overweight US stocks,” a team led by Jean Boivin and Wei Li said Monday in their weekly market commentary.
More than 80% of the S&P 500 companies have now reported first-quarter earnings, and profit growth has easily surpassed “mediocre expectations”, according to Gina Martin Adams at Bloomberg Intelligence.
The index is now on pace for a 6.5% earnings growth, almost double pre-season estimates of 3.75%, she noted.
Bets on double-digit earnings growth this year for companies in the S&P 500 are too lofty as Corporate America is likely to be challenged by higher rates, according to JPMorgan Chase Co.’s Marko Kolanovic.
“Consensus earnings expectations for this year look too optimistic,” he wrote.
Analyst projections imply S&P 500 earnings will rise 17% from the first to fourth quarter, a feat that requires high topline growth or substantial expansion, he added.
“Better than expected Q1 S&P 500 earnings and the recent pullback in stock prices brought P/E multiples of several key US benchmarks back to attractive levels in our view,” said John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management.
The backdrop for stocks remains supportive, driven by healthy and broadening profit growth, inflation that will likely resume falling, a Fed that is more likely to cut than hike rates, and surging investment in artificial intelligence,
according to David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial remarked that stock-market breadth remains robust and momentum is also improving.
Meantime, hedge funds are reversing their bearish stance on consumer stocks as the latest economic data and comments from the Fed revive bets on rate cuts.
After four weeks of selling, hedge funds last week piled into consumer discretionary stocks, which saw the largest net buying during the week ended May 3, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage desk.
The move was driven by long buys as well as the largest short covering since December 2023.
“Mixed” messages from key US economic data and the accompanying swings in stock markets mean investors should load up on defensive sectors such as consumer staples, according to Morgan Stanley strategists.
A soft landing or a so-called no landing, where growth is resilient even as rates stay high, both remain possible for the US economy, the team led by Michael Wilson wrote in a note.
This uncertain backdrop warrants an investment approach that can work as market pricing and leadership between groups of stocks gets whipsawed by the potential outcomes.
In corporate earnings, Arm Holdings Plc should show it continued to benefit from artificial-intelligence demand when it reports this week.
Airbnb Inc. may be among gig economy companies posting slower growth.
Uber Technologies Inc. should be a bright spot as it expands its pool of drivers and merchants, drawing more active users.
Walt Disney Co., fresh off a victory in its proxy fight against activist investor Nelson Peltz, is set to impress as cost-cutting efforts take hold, the bet on streaming gets closer to paying off and its theme parks keep drawing visitors.

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. faces a new investigation by US aviation safety regulators tied to inspections of the company’s 787 Dreamliner and whether employees may have falsified records.
* The US Securities and Exchange Commission warned Robinhood Markets Inc. that it faces an enforcement action over its crypto business — the latest sign that the regulator isn’t letting up on its years-long crackdown on digital assets.
* Chip-design company Synopsys Inc. is selling its software integrity business to two private equity firms for as much as $2.1 billion in cash.
* Tyson Foods Inc. said persistent inflation has eroded consumers’ appetite for the branded and ready-to-eat offerings accounting for most of the company’s profits.
* United States Steel Corp. was raised to overweight at Morgan Stanley, based on prospects for “transformational” investments.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods foresees arbitration with Chevron Corp. over a premier Guyanese asset stretching into 2025 due to the importance of the case to both companies.
* Brookfield Asset Management struck a partnership with Castlelake LP to get a majority share of the private debt firm’s fee-related earnings, another move in the Canadian investing giant’s effort to grow its credit business.

Key events this week:
* Australia rate decision, Tuesday
* Eurozone retail sales, Tuesday
* UBS earnings, Walt Disney, BP earnings, Tuesday
* Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks, Tuesday
* Toyota earnings, Wednesday
* Germany industrial production, Wednesday
* Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan issues summary of opinions from April policy meeting, Thursday
* China trade, Thursday
* UK BOE rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* UK industrial production, GDP, Friday
* ECB publishes account of April policy meeting, Friday
* BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0767
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2560
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 153.94 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $63,198.63
* Ether fell 2.2% to $3,069.07
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.49%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.47%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.22%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $78.63 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $2,325.39 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Natalia Kniazhevich.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Men are more moral than they think and far more immoral than they can imagine. –Sigmund Freud, 1856-1939.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

May 3, 1978: The Digital Equipment Corporation send the world’s first spam email.  It was promoting mainframe  computers for sale.
1981: The space shuttle Columbia blasted off from Cape Canaveral, Fla., on its first test flight.  Go to article >>

May 3, 1971: National Public Radio 1st News Broadcast.

Niccolo Macchiavelli, statesman, b. 1469.
Golda Meir, Israeli Prime Minister, b. 1898.
Pete Saeger, musician, b. 1919.
James Brown, singer, b. 1928.

Orangutan observed treating wound using medicinal plant
Scientists working in Indonesia have observed an orangutan intentionally treating a wound on its face with a medicinal plant, the first time this behavior has been documented.

Certified emotional support alligator is missing
The search is on to find Wally, a “gentle” emotional support alligator currently on the loose in Georgia.

Hockey crowd erupts when daughter mimics dad’s chugging
Who chugs their beverage better, dad or daughter? Watch this video to see a fun jumbotron chugathon.

‘Ping pong-sized’ hailstones ravage famous French wine region
A violent hailstorm wreaked havoc on vineyards in Chablis, ripping plants apart in the latest weather-related blow to hit local Chardonnay winemakers.

Women need to exercise and eat differently than men. Here’s how
You may have heard about the benefits of intermittent fasting and strength training. But are they equally beneficial to men and women? Not necessarily.

Neanderthal woman’s face brought to life in stunning reconstruction
With her long, brown hair and determined gaze, the new facial reconstruction lets us peek into the world of an archaic human who lived tens of thousands of years ago. Read More.

‘You certainly don’t see this every day’: Ultra-rare backward-spinning tornado formed over Oklahoma
A pair of odd twisters spun out from a supercell thunderstorm in Oklahoma Tuesday (April 30). Read More.

Asteroid that exploded over Berlin was fastest-spinning space rock ever recorded
Scientists have calculated the rotational speed of asteroid 2024 BX1, which exploded over Berlin earlier this year, by letting it trail in images of the sky. It turns out, 2024 BX1 was spinning faster than any other near-Earth object ever seen. Read More.

Optical illusion reveals key brain rule that governs consciousness A study of mice starts to unravel how the brain gets tricked by this kind of optical illusion, and it gives clues about how visual perception works. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY 

Agassiz, Canada
A young girl runs between rows of flowers at the Harrison tulip festival in British Columbia
Photograph: Canadian Press/Rex/Shutterstock

A field hamster peeks out of its burrow in Euskirchen, Germany. About a dozen captive-bred hamsters have been released into the wild there in the hope that this will prevent the species’ extinction. They are much bigger than domestic pet hamsters – even longer in the body than a guinea pig, although not as rotund
Photograph: Oliver Berg/dpa

​​​​​​​Rimini, Italy
This multi-exposure photograph shows an athlete competing in the rings during the men’s individual apparatus final at the Artistic Gymnastics European Championships
Photograph: Gabriel Bouys/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for May 3^rd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38675.68	+450.02
		+1.18%
S&P 500	5127.79	+63.59
		+1.26%
NASDAQ	16156.33	+315.37
		+1.99%
TSX	21947.41	+124.19
		+0.57%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38236.07	-37.98
		-0.10%
HANG SENG	18475.92	+268.79
		+1.48%
SENSEX	73878.15	-732.96
		-0.98%
FTSE 100*	8123.49	+41.34
		+0.51%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.648	3.737
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.553	3.628
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.5077	4.5811
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6645	4.7284

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7314	0.7315
US $	1.3672	1.3670

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4724	0.6792
US $	1.0769	0.9286

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2294.45	2302.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.11	78.95

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1999, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 11000 for the first time, just 24 trading days after breaking the 10000 mark—the shortest interval on record between 1000-point milestones.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.6%, or 124.19 to 21,947.41 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since April 23.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.4%.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 10.7%.
Today, 130 of 223 shares rose, while 89 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 7.8% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.9% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 17.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 on a trailing basis and 14.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.46t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.85% compared with 8.77% in the previous session and the average of 8.03% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 32.7489| 1.8| 9/1
Financials | 28.6073| 0.4| 24/2
Industrials | 17.2424| 0.6| 17/9
Materials | 15.1261| 0.6| 21/29
Utilities | 9.0940| 1.1| 11/3
Communication Services | 7.5190| 1.1| 3/2
Energy | 4.9798| 0.1| 12/28
Real Estate | 4.0549| 0.9| 17/3
Consumer Discretionary | 3.3334| 0.4| 7/6
Consumer Staples | 1.5407| 0.2| 6/5
Health Care | -0.0532| -0.1| 3/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 28.4900| 3.4| 24.2| -1.3
RBC | 25.9900| 1.9| -1.1| 3.3
Brookfield Corp | 13.5100| 2.4| -2.7| 9.7
Magna Intl | -4.3120| -3.5| 22.6| -18.4
Open Text | -13.6200| -14.8| 572.8| -25.7
TD Bank | -57.6300| -5.8| 59.0| -12.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks notched their biggest advance since February as a slowdown in US jobs sent bond yields sliding, with traders reviving bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
A softer-than-estimated payrolls number — that did not signal the labor market is rolling over — and a cooldown in wages appeased investors worrying about “stagflation” or a recession.
Instead, the latest employment print gave fodder to the believers in an economy that is gradually slowing and would allow a data-dependent Fed to start easing policy as early as September.
“The payroll miss hands the baton to the bulls,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “Markets are rallying aggressively as incoming data point to a shorter journey across the monetary-policy bridge.”
The S&P 500 rose 1.3%, with equities also buoyed by Apple Inc.’s post-earnings surge.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 climbed 2%. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — sank to an over one-month low.
Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, dropped seven basis points to 4.81%.
Swap traders are now projecting around 50 basis points of policy easing this year — which would equate to two rate cuts.
The dollar saw its worst week since March.
A litany of weaker-than-estimated data points this week — from jobs to services and manufacturing — put the focus back on the “bad news is good news” narrative.
The US version of Citigroup’s Economic Surprise Index — which measures the difference between actual releases and analyst expectations — hit the lowest since February 2023.
Nonfarm payrolls advanced 175,000 in April, the smallest gain in six months.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% and wage gains slowed.
“The softer-than-expected payroll report suggests there is no heat in the economy that should keep inflation persistently high, which increases odds for rate cuts this year,” said Sonu Varghese at Carson Group.
Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee told Bloomberg Television that additional jobs reports like Friday’s would give him comfort the economy is not overheating.
Speaking separately, Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation will likely remain elevated for “some time,” but added she still anticipates price gains will eventually cool with rates held at current levels.
Following Wednesday’s Fed decision, Chair Jerome Powell noted it’s unlikely the next move would be to raise rates.
Being weaker across the board, the April employment report vindicates Powell’s decision not to lurch hawkish at the May meeting and “is good news for the Fed and the market,” according to Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“We feel somewhat more confident in our base case that the Fed will start cutting by September,” Guha added.
To Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management, the latest jobs report indeed brings the rate-cutting dialogue back into the market and perhaps explains why Powell was able to lean more dovish on Wednesday.
“This is the jobs report the Fed would have scripted,” Shah noted.
“Of course, today’s weaker numbers need to mark the start of a new slower trend for multiple rate cuts to seriously be back on the agenda – but, by then, the new fear could be a slowing economy.”
Separate data Friday showed the US services sector unexpectedly contracted in April for the first time since 2022 as a gauge of business activity slumped to a four-year low and a measure of input costs rose.
“Today’s jobs report is the definition of Goldilocks: job growth that is gradually moving back to around trend amid a normalization of wage growth,” said Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“This is certainly the type of employment report that Fed officials will welcome. We remain optimistic that the Fed will first ease rates at its September FOMC meeting.”
Overall, market observers say signs of a cooling economy could nudge the Fed to lower interest rates over time — but that inflation data would be vital.
“Worried that the US economy is overheating? The April employment report throws a bit of cold water on that idea,” said Mark Hamrick at Bankrate.
“The data will need to align for the Fed to gain confidence that inflation is getting closer to its 2% target before pulling a rate cut trigger. It remains on high alert for unacceptably high inflation.”
A rally in US stocks faltered last month as the Fed signaled it would hold interest rates higher for longer amid elevated inflation.
A sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter has also raised “stagflation” chatter — though many market observers have downplayed that possibility at this stage.
To Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, the latest jobs report should be perceived by markets as a “welcome breath of fresh air as it will hush the hawkish undertone in the market and any recent ‘stagflation’ fears.”
While Fed officials will likely be relieved that the labor market is cooling, this report is not soft enough to change the Fed outlook, according to Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“Hiring was strong, unemployment remains low, and wages are likely to tick up again next month,” she noted.
Wilding bets the Fed will try to get at least one cut in this year, but she still expects the central bank to take one or two cuts out of its rate-path projections when it releases new Summary of Economic Projections in June.
Back in March, Fed officials maintained their outlook for three interest-rate cuts in 2024.
“If inflation does not breakout and jobs data stays moderate, a first rate cut could be due in September, but we expect the Fed to remain very dependent on incoming data, meeting by meeting,” said Larry Tentarelli at Blue Chip Daily
Trend Report.
Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance says that as long as the Fed maintains rates where they are — or cuts once or twice — the market can keep moving higher.

More Comments on Jobs:
* Michael Kantrowitz at Piper Sandler & Co.:  Soft macroeconomic data is needed to bring rates down and stocks up. Bullish all day.
* David Donabedian at CIBC Private Wealth US:   The April employment report supports the optimism expressed by Jerome Powell on Wednesday regarding how the economy would unfold in coming months, settling into a slower rate of growth with inflation coming down.  Following the April jobs report, there is rising optimism that the Fed may be more supportive of the markets now pricing in two possible rate cuts this year.

* Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management:  Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve’s hesitancy to cut interest rates in the near-term, as there have still been several months of strong
jobs and inflation data and it’s clear that inflation is still too far above the Fed’s 2% target to justify a rate cut. 

* David Mazza at Roundhill Investments:  While one softer-than-expected jobs report will not be enough to bias the Fed to cut at their next meeting, it shows the labor market may be starting to materially cool.  More importantly, wage growth was lower than expected, which is a positive sign for inflation. In short, this coupled with Apple’s earnings report, will put the bulls in charge to close out a busy macro week.

* Mohamed El-Erian at Queens’ College, Cambridge and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist:  A goldilocks report that will please the Fed and please the markets.  I’m not particularly surprised on the miss on job creation, because we have been running at very high levels for the year.  I’m a little surprised on the wage, the 0.2%, that is the one that surprises me. That’s something that one needs to look at much more closely.

* Charlie Ripley at Allianz Investment Management:  Overall, data from the April labor market report dampened the market’s view on how strong the US economy is running and has allowed the possibility of rate cuts this year to come back into the conversation. At any rate, the Fed will certainly welcome the data as it should relieve some of the pressure around the higher-for-longer policy narrative.

* Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial:  The demand for labor is slowing which will eventually ease inflation pressures, giving the Fed some leeway to cut rates later this year. Slower payroll growth and fewer hours worked imply the economy is slowing at a measured pace. This jobs report is consistent with the soft landing narrative.

* Bret Kenwell at eToro:  The April jobs report appears to be a Goldilocks print for investors. The April jobs report doesn’t create an urgent concern for the labor market or the economy, and it found a way to thread the needle between being soft enough, but not too weak.  The bond market is back to pricing in two rate cuts for the year, which is a relief to stock and crypto bulls.  Investors do not want to cheer for labor market deterioration. While some softness will help grease the wheels for looser financial policy from the Fed, persistent weakness in the jobs market would be a clear negative for the market.

* Ronald Temple at Lazard:  Today’s payroll report combined with the job opening and quit data all point to easing of labor market tightness, which should translate to lower wage and inflation pressure, opening the door for rate cuts as early as the September meeting.

* George Mateyo at Key Wealth:  Just what the Fed Chair wanted! Today’s employment report was weaker than expected. Yet, the weakness was not so weak to suggest that the labor market is rolling over. It was a slowdown that the Fed and many market participants have been wanting for some time.  Rate cuts will come back into focus, and investors should remain vigilant for larger slowdowns in the month ahead. But today, this small amount of bad news relative to expectations will be viewed as good news, and suggest the economy is moderating but remains on solid ground.

* Chris Low at FHN Financial:  Today’s report was a far cry from the kind of labor market weakness that would prompt a Fed rate cut. Nevertheless, more abundant labor and slower job and wage growth should help contain inflation, and that is the key to rate cuts. Hence, odds of a September rate cut have climbed.

* Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley:  Following a steady stream of sticky inflation data in recent months, today’s much-weaker-than-expected jobs report had \to bring smiles to the faces of the Fed board. It may not put a
June rate cut back on the table, but unless it turns out to be an anomaly, it will increase the odds that the Fed will be able to get in at least one cut this year.

* Richard Flynn at Charles Schwab UK:  Investors will interpret today’s weak jobs report as a sign that demand is slowing in the labor market. A dive in the labor market may be what it takes to push the Fed from a stroll to a sprint.

* Andrew Brenner at NatAlliancer Securities:  Weaker number, increased unemployment rate, and lower wage growth. Looks like a Goldilocks report.

* Matt Peron at Janus Henderson Investors:  The NFP report was a big sigh of relief for markets, with a softer job market and importantly a softer average hourly earnings readout.  Taken together, this should give markets some hope that inflation is not as sticky as feared and raises the possibility of getting back on the disinflation trend we saw last year.  In terms of markets, this should be a big boost given the negativity around sticky inflation of late, and if  confirmed, can bring the prospect of rate cuts back into the picture for 2024.

* Neil Birrell at Premier Miton Investors:  What will the Fed make of this? At last there is evidence of some weakness in the US jobs market. Rate cuts will move back up the agenda as a result and there is little doubt that markets
will take this as good news. While we shouldn’t make too much of single data prints, this could be the start of a positive trend for the Fed.

* Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Asset Management:  This report is generally good news for the markets, especially for bondholders. It could herald a period of at least \stable interest rates, accompanied by a gradual weakening of the
US dollar. 

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. posted stronger-than-expected sales last quarter and predicted a return to growth in the current period, sparking optimism that a slowdown is easing. Profit also topped Wall Street projections in the period, and Apple announced the biggest stock buyback in US history.
* Amgen Inc.’s shares soared after its chief executive officer said he was “very encouraged” by early results from a study of the company’s experimental obesity drug, MariTide.
* Société Generale SA equities traders outshone their bond-trading counterparts for a fourth straight quarter, with revenue from the unit helping the French bank beat estimates for profit in the three months through March.
* Booking Holdings Inc., owner of travel brands Kayak and Priceline, said it expects room-night reservations to slow in the current quarter as tensions in the Middle East curb regional tourism.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0764
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2549
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 152.89 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 5.7% to $62,103.17
* Ether rose 2.9% to $3,074.41
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.50%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.49%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.22%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $78.14 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,301.47 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Let your life lightly dance on the edges of Time like dew on the tip of a leaf. –Rabindranath Tagore, 1861-1941.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  Robert’s Rules of Order Day.

May 2, 1611: King James Bible first published.
May 2, 1989: The Iron Curtain begins to crumble as Hungary dismantles its border fence.
1932: Pearl S. Buck wins the Pulitzer Prize.
1941: General Mills began shipping a new cereal called “Cheerioats” to six test markets. (The cereal was later renamed “Cheerios.”) The home of Cheerios is Buffalo, NY.  Go to article >>

Leonardo da Vinci, d. 1519.
Henry M. Robert, General, b.1837.
Benjamin Spock, pediatrician, b. 1903.
Naomi Campbell, model, b. 1970.

Stunning image shows atoms transforming into quantum waves — just as Schrödinger predicted
A new imaging technique, which captured frozen lithium atoms transforming into quantum waves, could be used to probe some of the most poorly understood aspects of the quantum world. Read More.

Rare ‘Excalibur’ sword from Spain dates to Islamic period 1,000 years ago
The sword is the first weapon from the Islamic period to be found in the Spanish city of Valencia. Read More.

Sun’s chaotic peak triggers record-breaking ‘global auroras’ on Mars
Mars has had frequent planet-wide auroras in recent months, including an unprecedented trio of events in February. Experts say the sudden increase is the result of the ongoing solar maximum. Read More.

See up to 50 ‘shooting stars’ per hour as the Eta Aquarid meteor shower peaks
The Eta Aquarid meteor shower will peak this weekend, bringing up to 50 “shooting stars” per hour to the sky Saturday night and early Sunday (May 4 – 5). Read More.

Princess Charlotte turns 9
The Prince and Princess of Wales released this sweet photo of their daughter to mark the occasion.

Scientists reveal the face of a Neanderthal who lived 75,000 years ago
A Neanderthal was buried 75,000 years ago, and experts painstakingly pieced together what she looked like. See the images here.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Frankfurt, Germany
The sun rises behind a small television tower on the outskirts of the city
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Florida, US
‘Inside the St Augustine Lighthouse. I really liked the black rails against the stark white walls and the spaciousness inside, which made the curved stairwell look very graceful.’
Photograph: Joy Scovell

​​​​​​​Whitby, UK
‘Getting my daily exercise walking around the abbey, which just happens to be by the brewery.’
Photograph: Howard Green
Market Closes for May 2^nd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38225.66	+322.37
		+0.85%
S&P 500	5064.20	+45.81
		+0.91%
NASDAQ	15840.96	+235.48
		+1.51%
TSX	21823.22	+94.68
		+0.44%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	21823.22	+94.67
		+0.44%
HANG SENG	18207.13	+444.10
		+2.50%
SENSEX	74611.11	+128.33
		+0.17%
FTSE 100*	8172.15	+50.91
		+0.63%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.737	3.759
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.628	3.631
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.5811	4.6283
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7284	4.7493

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7315	0.7283
US $	1.3670	1.3731

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4667	0.6818
US $	1.0729	0.9320

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2302.35	2302.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.95	79.00

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1963: Edward C. Johnson II, the head of Fidelity Investments, started a small mutual fund and gave it to his son, Ned, to run. He called it the Magellan Fund, and its success helped popularize mutual funds.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 94.68 to 21,823.22 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.6% on April 23.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.3%.
Thomson Reuters Corp. had the largest increase, rising 6.9%.
Today, 136 of 223 shares rose, while 83 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by industrials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 0.7%
* The index advanced 6.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.5% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 16.8% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.3% in the past 5 days and fell 1.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 on a trailing basis and 14.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.45t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.77% compared with 8.68% in the previous session and the average of 7.96% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Industrials | 41.2788| 1.4| 20/6
Energy | 31.8678| 0.8| 35/5
Financials | 11.6082| 0.2| 14/13
Utilities | 9.4672| 1.2| 13/2
Information Technology | 7.7831| 0.4| 5/5
Real Estate | 4.0418| 0.9| 13/7
Consumer Discretionary | 1.7417| 0.2| 10/3
Consumer Staples | 1.5257| 0.2| 6/5
Health Care | -1.6816| -2.5| 3/1
Communication Services | -2.3319| -0.3| 3/2
Materials | -10.6264| -0.4| 14/34
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 17.4300| 1.3| -19.1| 1.3
Thomson Reuters | 14.9700| 6.9| 173.8| 15.0
Shopify | 13.8600| 1.7| -5.9| -4.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -4.7310| -0.6| -59.9| 17.9
Constellation Software | -9.9530| -2.0| 34.8| 7.9
TD Bank | -16.4000| -1.6| -44.1| -7.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s largest technology companies drove stocks higher ahead of Apple Inc.’s earnings, with traders also gearing up for Friday’s jobs report.
Bonds climbed, while the dollar dropped the most in 2024.
Equities halted a two-day drop, with Nvidia Corp. leading a rally in chipmakers and Apple up 2.3%.
Wall Street expects the iPhone maker to announce a buyback, following the steps of fellow big techs Alphabet Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc.
Any news related to artificial-intelligence features could provide additional excitement for a stock that has tumbled 10% this year.
In the run-up to the monthly employment report, data showed US labor costs jumped the most in a year as productivity gains slowed, adding to risks inflation will remain elevated.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a 240,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls, which would be the slowest pace since November.
The Fed decided Wednesday to leave the target range for the benchmark rate at 5.25% to 5.5% following a slew of data that pointed to lingering price pressures.
Yet Chair Jerome Powell said it’s unlikely that the Fed’s next move would be to raise rates.
“While the Fed appears to have all but ruled out a rate hike, it also made clear it’s willing to keep rates higher for longer,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“The markets will be hungry for any data suggesting the economy isn’t heating up any more than it did in the first quarter.”
The S&P 500 topped 5,060, while the Nasdaq 100 added 1.3%.
Qualcomm Inc., the world’s biggest seller of smartphone processors, surged on an upbeat forecast.
eBay Inc. slumped on a disappointing outlook.
Treasury 10-year yields fell five basis points to 4.57%.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that30% of the investors polled think Friday’s jobs report will be “risk-on,” 27% expect a “risk-off” reaction, and 43% said “mixed/negligible.”
Among the labor indicators, the tally showed investors will be paying the most attention — by far — to average hourly earnings.
“Markets will likely still react more to a weaker print than strong data as investors have turned more hawkish,” said Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities. “However, the recent string of upside surprises to economic data is unlikely to be sustained for long as expectations continue to reset higher.”
The options market is betting that stocks will swing widely after Friday’s US jobs report, which traders expect will offer more clarity on how much the Fed may cut interest rates this year.
The S&P 500 is expected to move 1.2% in either direction after the release, based on the cost of at-the-money puts and calls expiring Friday, according to Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup Inc.’s head of US equity trading strategy.
That figure, based on the prices of S&P straddles as of Wednesday’s close, is the largest implied swing ahead of an employment report since March 2023, he said.
After Wednesday’s Fed decision to hold rates, the length of the current pause reached 280 days — which remains the second-longest on record, according to Ryan Grabinski at Strategas Securities.
“Longer pauses have been constructive for equities,” Grabinski said. “The longest pause from June 2006 to September 2007 was associated with the best equity-market return. We are reaching the point where a Fed cut is probably more likely to mean issues are perking up.”
Meantime, Bank of America Corp.’s Savita Subramanian says a sturdy economy will sustain the bull-market run in US stocks even without Fed rate cuts.
“I think we’re going to a soft landing, with a reasonable market environment, maybe better growth ahead than what we’re used to, higher rates and a little bit higher inflation,” Subramanian said Thursday on Bloomberg Television.
Hedge funds are turning increasingly defensive as uncertainty around geopolitics and the path of interest rates, as well as the stock market’s April swoon, has investing pros spooked.
Positioning data shows that hedge fund added defensive equity positions to their portfolio in April at the fastest pace in eight months, while still being net sellers of global stocks, according to figures compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage desk.
That snaps a four-month streak of buying.
Health care saw the biggest inflows, while consumer discretionary stocks had the largest net selling in seven months, according Goldman’s data.

Corporate Highlights:
* Peloton Interactive Inc. said Chief Executive Officer Barry McCarthy is stepping down as the company undergoes a major restructuring that will reduce its global workforce by 15% in an effort to slash costs.
* MGM Resorts International reported first-quarter sales and earnings that beat analysts’ projections, benefiting from the post-pandemic recovery in Macau and a new partnership with Marriott International Inc. that helped fill hotel rooms.
* Carvana Co. reported stronger earnings with revenue topping expectations as the company digs into its restructuring plan and regains sales momentum.
* DoorDash Inc., the largest food delivery service in the US, offered a disappointing profit forecast for the current quarter as the company invests in expanding its list of non-restaurant partners and improving efficiency.
* Moderna Inc. reported a narrower first-quarter loss than Wall Street had expected, as the biotech giant’s cost-cutting helped offset a steep decline in its Covid business.
* Apollo Global Management Inc. reported higher first-quarter profit as the firm raked in more management fees and originated a record $40 billion of private credit, a key area of growth.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, ISM Services, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%
* The MSCI World index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0727
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2537
* The Japanese yen rose 0.9% to 153.20 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.6% to $59,352.38
* Ether rose 2.1% to $2,999.18
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.57%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.54%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.29%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $2,303.82 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Ryan Vlastelica and Jessica Menton.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
As a well-spent day brings happy sleep, so a life well used brings a happy death. -Leonardo da Vinci, 1452-1519.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: May Day.

May 1, 1961: Fidel Castro declares Cuba a socialist nation and bans elections.
On May 1, 2011, President Barack Obama announced that Osama Bin Laden, the mastermind of the September 11 attacks, was killed by United States forces in Pakistan. Go to article >>

Judy Collins, singer, songwriter & musician, b. 1934.

2 plants randomly mated up to 1 million years ago to give rise to one of the world’s most popular drinks
Arabica coffee plant appears to have evolved between 600,000 and 1 million years ago after two other coffee species crossbred in the forests of what is now Ethiopia. Read More.

Villa near Mount Vesuvius may be where Augustus, Rome’s 1st emperor, died
Researchers say a villa buried by the eruption in A.D. 79 corresponds with records of the Roman emperor’s death in A.D. 14. Read More.

James Webb telescope reveals fiery ‘mane’ of the Horsehead Nebula in spectacular new images
Captured in infrared light by the James Webb Space Telescope, the star-forming Horsehead Nebula is located 1,300 light-years away in the Orion Constellation. Read More.

Dusty ‘Cat’s Paw Nebula’ contains a type of molecule never seen in space — and it’s one of the largest ever found
Scientists have detected a new, unusually large molecule never seen in space before. The 13-atom molecule, called 2-methoxyethanol, was detected in the Cat’s Paw Nebula. Read More.

6G speeds hit 100 Gbps in new test — 500 times faster than average 5G cellphones
Scientists in Japan have transferred data at 100 gigabits per second in high-frequency wavelength bands over a distance of 330 feet for the first time. Read More.

Tony Awards 2024: See the list of nominees
The Tony Awards, which honor the best on Broadway, will be presented on June 16. See the full list of nominees here.

This airport says it hasn’t lost a single piece of baggage in 30 years
There’s always a chance your luggage will be lost in transit … except at this airport, which has a spotless baggage record since opening in 1994.

Paleo diet? Study reveals insight into what Stone Age humans really ate
A long-held stereotype is that ancient humans were big on meat. A new study suggests more plant-based foods were on the menu.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Wichita, US
A formation of mammatus clouds fills the sky over north-east Kansas after severe storms and a few tornadoes crossed the state
Photograph: Travis Heying/the Wichita Eagle/AP

Sydney, Australia
Performers at the Overseas Passenger Terminal put on a show to promote the film Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Photograph: Brendon Thorne/Getty

Srinagar, India
A boatman steers people along a canal within Dal Lake after water levels rose due to heavy rains
Photograph: Tauseef Mustafa/AFP/Getty
Market Closes for May 1^st, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	37903.29	+87.37
		+0.23%
S&P 500	5018.39	-17.30
		-0.34%
NASDAQ	15605.48	-52.34
		-0.33%
TSX	21728.55	+14.01
		+0.07%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38274.05	-131.61
		-0.34%
HANG SENG	Market Close	N.A
SENSEX	Market Close	N.A
FTSE 100*	8121.24	-22.89
		-0.28%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.759	3.816
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.631	3.674
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6283	4.6798
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7493	4.7839

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7283	0.7258
US $	1.3731	1.3778

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4715	0.6796
US $	1.0716	0.9332

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2302.35	2333.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	79.00	81.93

Market Commentary:

📈 On this day in 1956, seven local investors contributed $105,000 to an investment partnership that a 25-year-old was about to start running from his bedroom in a rented house on Underwood Avenue in Omaha. The name of the “kid” running the fund: Warren Buffett.

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 21,728.55 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.3%.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%.
Brookfield Renewable Partners LP had the largest increase, rising 11.5%.
Today, 124 of 224 shares rose, while 98 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 5.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.9% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 16.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.7% in the past 5 days and fell 2.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 on a trailing basis and 14.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.45t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.68% compared with 9.08% in the previous session and the average of 7.89% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 36.0116| 0.5| 24/3
Utilities | 11.6792| 1.5| 13/2
Information Technology | 11.2338| 0.6| 8/2
Materials | 6.1054| 0.2| 40/10
Communication Services | 5.2949| 0.8| 2/3
Real Estate | 0.4900| 0.1| 10/9
Consumer Staples | -1.0456| -0.1| 3/8
Health Care | -3.4302| -4.9| 1/3
Industrials | -6.8131| -0.2| 12/15
Consumer Discretionary | -8.5932| -1.1| 3/10
Energy | -36.9345| -0.9| 8/33
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | 11.5000| 2.1| 0.3| 6.1
Constellation Software | 9.9760| 2.0| -35.6| 10.1
RBC | 7.6700| 0.6| 3.2| 0.0
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -8.0790| -1.2| 66.7| 1.8
Canadian Natural Resources | -9.7500| -1.3| -52.1| 18.7
TD Bank | -11.2900| -1.1| -48.1| -5.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Bonds rallied after Jerome Powell downplayed the possibility of interest-rate hikes and the Federal Reserve said it will shrink its balance sheet at a slower pace to ease strains in money markets.
Treasuries climbed across the curve, with two-year yields dropping below 5%.
Swap traders boosted bets on policy easing in 2024.
At one point, markets were headed for their biggest cross-asset surge on a Fed day this year.
Moves abated toward the close, with the S&P 500 turning lower as chipmakers plunged in the final hour of trading.
The yen soared, fueling speculation Japan could be intervening to support the currency.
Officials unanimously decided Wednesday to leave the target range for the benchmark federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5% — where it’s been since July.
Powell noted it’s unlikely the Fed’s next move would be to raise rates, saying officials would need to see persuasive evidence that policy is not tight enough to bring inflation back toward the central bank’s 2% target.
“Jay Powell threaded the needle perfectly today,” said Ronald Temple at Lazard.
“He did not take the bait to talk about hiking rates. I believe the FOMC’s cautious approach will be a winner over time as inflation subsides as we progress through the year.”
US 10-year yields fell five basis points to 4.63%.
In a volatile session, the S&P 500 extended this week’s losses — with traders seeing Friday’s jobs report as the next big catalyst.
After the close of regular trading, Qualcomm Inc., the biggest seller of smartphone processors, gave a bullish forecast.
“The basic message was that cuts have been delayed — not derailed,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore. “Relative to expectations, this is a very measured hawkish reset.”
While the Fed signaled it’s not planning to cut rates so soon, the fact that officials are slowing the pace at which they shrink their balance sheet, it will mean less upward pressure on bond yields, according to Sonu Varghese at Carson Group.
In the plan unveiled Wednesday, the Fed said it will lower the monthly cap on how much Treasuries it will allow to mature without being reinvested, to $25 billion from $60 billion, while keeping the cap for mortgage-backed securities unchanged at $35 billion.
The central bank has been winding down its holdings since June 2022 — a process known as quantitative tightening.
It gradually increased the combined amount of Treasury and mortgage bonds it allowed to run off without being reinvested to a total of $95 billion per month.
To Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets, QT tapering combined with the Treasury Department’s $10 billion per month in buybacks represent a constructive shift in the flow dynamics for the US rates market.
“The less Treasury debt that rolls off the Fed’s balance sheet, the less debt that has to be absorbed by the market,” said Greg McBride at Bankrate.
“This could help keep long-term Treasury yields in check after heady increases thus far in 2024.”

Wall Street’s Reaction to Fed:
* Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research:  The statement retains its easing bias. In the press conference, Powell believes that policy is restrictive. If policy is restrictive, they are more concerned about downside growth risks than upside inflation risks.
* Bret Kenwell at eToro:  The Fed might not be confident enough to cut rates yet, but notably, the idea of rate hikes doesn’t appear to be on the table.  The Fed’s plan to slow its balance sheet runoff should be a positive for the bond market, and it’s something the committee likely wouldn’t do if it felt that it would need to raise rates in the not-too-distant future.
* Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management:  After a spate of strong inflation numbers, the Fed cannot pretend that recent inflation surprises are simple blips in the data run. Yet Powell retains some confidence that inflation will
decline from here, albeit lessened over recent months, suggesting that it’s a fairly high bar for rate hikes.  Yet, before markets get overly excited, it’s worth remembering that the Fed is responding to the unfolding economic data, just as we all are. The next few months of data are pivotal for the Fed path.
* Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial:  The FOMC statement offered the market liquidity, with a larger than expected QT slowdown in exchange for more time needed to assess the path of disinflation and timing for initiating rate cuts.
The statement wasn’t as hawkish as market participants anticipated as there wasn’t a hint of a potential rate hike, just a suggestion of remaining higher for perhaps longer than an eager market is comfortable with.
* Whitney Watson at Goldman Sachs Asset Management:  US growth and inflation exceptionalism in the first quarter suggest the Fed will exercise patience before pivoting to rate cuts, spending the second quarter regaining confidence on disinflation.  We expect the downtrend in inflation has been delayed, not derailed. As for the Fed’s balance-sheet reduction, today’s decision to taper quantitative tightening is a nod to liquidity considerations in the financial system, rather than a shift in direction.
* Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers:  Pulling back on QT is the noteworthy aspect, particularly because cutback is strictly on the Treasuries side while agencies and mortgages remain unchanged. A bit of dovishness to balance the acknowledgement of lack of progress on inflation.
Wall Street lore says traders should dump stocks in May to avoid the summer doldrums.
But that strategy appears to have been a bust in recent memory.
The old Wall Street adage “sell in May and go away” refers to a six-month stretch from May to October that historically has been the worst time to own stocks — but that hasn’t been the case lately.
In fact, the S&P 500 has delivered gains in eight of the past 10 years during this time frame, with an average return of 4%, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
That said, this span still hasn’t beaten the best six months of the year on average for US equities in the past 70 years: November to April.
Last month’s slide in the S&P 500 drove sell-side strategists out of equities and bonds and into cash, bringing a contrarian sentiment barometer from Bank of America Corp. closer to signaling it’s time to buy US stocks.
BofA’s so-called Sell-Side Indicator ticked down 33 basis points in April to 54.6%, bringing it just below its 15-year average, strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.

Corporate Highlights:
* eBay Inc. declined after giving a weak forecast for the current quarter, reinforcing investor worries that the one-time pioneer continues to lose relevance in a maturing e-commerce market crowded with competitors.
* American International Group Inc. reported profit above analysts’ estimates in the first quarter as lower-than-expected catastrophe losses contributed to strong underwriting results.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Andrew Witty told lawmakers his company is still trying to determine why its computer systems were left vulnerable to hackers who perpetrated a devastating cyberattack.
* Allstate Corp. reported earnings that beat estimates as the property and casualty insurer benefitted from lower catastrophe losses.
* DoorDash Inc., the largest food delivery service in the US, offered a disappointing profit forecast for the current quarter as the company invests in expanding its list of non-restaurant partners and improving efficiency.
* Carvana Co. reported stronger earnings with revenue topping expectations as the company digs into its restructuring plan and regains sales momentum.
* Zillow Group Inc. shares fell after the real estate company published a second-quarter outlook that called for lower revenue in its core business and predicted stalling growth in the broader US housing market.
* Mastercard Inc. cut a forecast for full-year revenue growth citing foreign exchange headwinds, as first-quarter spending on the payments giant’s network fell short of estimates.
* New York Community Bancorp Inc. posted results that were better than feared and executives outlined a plan for reshaping it into a more diversified and profitable bank.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* US factory orders, initial jobless claims, trade, Thursday
* Apple earnings, Thursday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, ISM Services, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0689
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2491
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 157.51 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 4.7% to $57,030.77
* Ether fell 1.3% to $2,924.73
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.63%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.58%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.37%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.4% to $79.11 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $2,308.04 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jessica Menton, Natalia Kniazhevich and Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. – Joseph Joubert, 1754-1824.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Beltane, Wicca.

Walpurgisnacht, Witch’s Night, Europe.  Beltane – the ancient Celtic union of goddess and god, water and light.  All fires are extinguished at sunset on Beltane Eve, the midpoint between the spring equinox and the summer solstice.  It is a celebration of all that is powerful and sensual n nature. Atop the Maypole, a womb-like inverted basket in hung with ribbons.  Dancers of each sex grasp the ribbons, facing one another,  The dancers weave, the ribbons intertwine…

We were there last night when the dark drew down: we set the bonfires leaping.
Then we vanished in the hear and we couldn’t be found until the dawn came creeping. –Celtic rock group Annwn

April 30, 1975: The fall of Saigon marks the end of the Vietnam War.

Deepest blue hole in the world discovered, with hidden caves and tunnels believed to be inside
Scientists have yet to reach the bottom of the Taam Ja’ Blue Hole in Mexico’s Chetumal Bay, which new measurements hint could be connected to a labyrinth of submarine caves and tunnels. Read More.

Earth from space: Lava bleeds down iguana-infested volcano as it spits out toxic gas
A satellite image of the Galápagos Islands’ La Cumbre volcano shows lava seeping from the iguana-covered mountain days into an ongoing, months-long eruption. Read More.

Why do people hear their names being called in the woods?
Auditory pareidolia is a phenomenon in which people can hear familiar sounds from seemingly static background noise. Read More.

Black hole ‘traffic jams’ are forcing cosmic monsters to collide, new study finds
Supermassive black holes may create conditions akin to “cosmic intersections with failed traffic lights” that make collisions between smaller stellar-mass black holes inevitable. Read More.

Quantum computing breakthrough could happen with just hundreds, not millions, of qubits using new error-correction system
Scientists have designed a physical qubit that behaves as an error-correcting “logical qubit,” and now they think they can scale it up to make a useful quantum computer using a few hundred. Read More.

Amateur archaeologists unearth mysterious Roman object
This 12-sided object is considered “one of archaeology’s great enigmas” and experts are still unsure what the Romans used it for.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
Employees of the Louvre return the painting Liberty Leading the People (1830) by Eugène Delacroix to its original spot after its restoration. The picture goes back on display on 2 May after six months of restoration work
Photograph: Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/Getty Images

Nochten, Germany
The Boxberg coal-fired power plant stands behind the newly inaugurated PV-Park Boxberg solar energy park.
Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Vienna, Austria
Images are projected on to a wall during a conference titled Humanity at the Crossroads, the former imperial palace
Photograph: Joe Klamar/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for April 30^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	37815.92	-570.17
		-1.49%
S&P 500	5035.69	-80.48
		-1.57%
NASDAQ	15657.82	-325.26
		-2.04%
TSX	21714.54	-297.08
		-1.35%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38405.66	+470.90
		+1.24%
HANG SENG	17763.03	+16.12
		+0.09%
SENSEX	74482.78	-188.50
		-0.25%
FTSE 100*	8144.13	-2.90
		-0.04%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.816	3.750
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.674	3.627
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.6798	4.6136
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7839	4.7315

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7258	0.7321
US $	1.3778	1.3659

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4699	0.6803
US $	1.0668	0.9374

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2333.55	2333.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	81.93	83.85

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in in 1999, shares in Priceline hit $162, a 914% rise from the travel website’s IPO a month earlier, fueled by froth from the dotcom frenzy.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.3% at 21,714.54 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.3% on Feb. 13 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 185 of 224 shares fell, while 36 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.4%.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 9.5%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss seven times. The next day, it declined four times for an average 0.3% and advanced three times for an average 0.6%
* This month, the index fell 2%
* The index advanced 5.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 16.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.4% in the past 5 days and fell 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 on a trailing basis and 14.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.5t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.08% compared with 8.08% in the previous session and the average of 7.85% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -99.4661| -2.4| 1/40
Materials | -81.8349| -3.1| 2/47
Industrials | -44.5069| -1.5| 7/20
Financials | -32.2780| -0.5| 4/22
Information Technology | -31.3342| -1.7| 1/9
Consumer Staples | -11.2038| -1.2| 1/10
Real Estate | -2.0547| -0.4| 7/13
Consumer Discretionary | -0.6768| -0.1| 2/11
Utilities | -0.6669| -0.1| 8/7
Communication Services | 2.0019| 0.3| 2/3
Health Care | 4.9225| 7.5| 1/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -20.0900| -2.4| 53.5| -6.3
Canadian Natural Resources | -18.8200| -2.4| -61.7| 20.2
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -16.2900| -2.3| 79.0| 3.0
Tilray Brands | 5.2430| 41.9| 229.2| 11.8
TD Bank | 7.6910| 0.8| -23.2| -4.6
Restaurant Brands | 7.7970| 3.5| 44.0| 0.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market sank in the final stretch of April and bond yields climbed on concern that stubborn inflation will force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer.
On the eve of the Fed decision, a broad gauge of US labor costs closely watched by policymakers jumped the most in a year.
The data signaled wage pressures, reinforcing bets that officials will keep rates unchanged at a two-decade high Wednesday — and are unlikely to lower them anytime soon.
That perception combined with a plunge in consumer confidence weighed heavily on equities — which suffered their worst month since September.
The last time Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke he pointed to the lack of further progress in bringing inflation down, and to enduring strength in the labor market.
The latest inflation signals — in tandem with expectations for a robust employment report on Friday — aren’t likely to lead him to change his tune.
“The markets are in full fear-mode going into tomorrow’s Fed announcement,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “Rates won’t go down in the near future and equities are having trouble justifying their price.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the most since January.
In late hours, Amazon.com Inc. climbed as earnings beat estimates.
Starbucks Corp. posted its first sales decline in more than three years.
Treasury two-year yields topped 5% — the highest level since November.
The dollar notched its fourth consecutive monthly advance — the longest winning run since September 2022.
“Stocks, bonds, and the dollar are all frontrunning the possibility of a frowning Powell at tomorrow’s interest rate decision,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “This morning’s data justifies an increasingly hawkish committee.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that only 16% of investors polled expect a “risk-on” reaction to Wednesday’s Fed decision, 44% said “risk-off,” and 40% “negligible/mixed.”
The tally also revealed that two thirds of respondents still expect a rate cut in 2024.
US consumer confidence fell in April to the lowest since mid-2022 as Americans’ views of the labor market and their outlook for the economy deteriorated.
A broad gauge of labor costs closely watched by the Fed increased the most in a year, illustrating persistent wage pressures that are keeping inflation elevated.
“With inflation data continuing to be surprisingly hot for the past quarter, the narrative that these surprises are all attributable to ‘one offs’ in individual components is becoming harder to sustain,” said Joe Davis at Vanguard. “Time will tell, but the data suggest that what we call a ‘deferred landing’ is more likely than the long anticipated ‘soft landing’.”
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the disappointment on wages will make the Fed less confident in the outlook for inflation.
“This will manifest itself in a harder tone,” he said “with policymakers clearly open to a more extended hold beyond the initial delay for the first cut from June to July/ September — if there is not a clear stepdown in inflation in the coming months.”
Sticky US inflation this year isn’t necessarily bad news for the stock rally as higher yields are a reflection of strong economic growth, according to HSBC strategists led by Max Kettner.
“If the Fed’s cuts turn out to be more like the recalibration in the mid-1990s and 2019, it may not necessarily be bad news for risk assets,” they wrote.
Bank of America Corp. clients posted their largest inflows to US equities in eight weeks during the five-day period ended Friday.
All major client groups — institutions, hedge funds, and retail investors — were net buyers last week, quantitative strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said in a note to clients Tuesday.
Net inflow totaled $3 billion, largest in two months, per B of A.
The recent rebound in equity markets was not driven by a change in investor flows, but rather by the unwind of profitable bearish positions, Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Chris Montagu wrote.
They also noted that the bounce couldn’t continue on de-risking flows alone — and should be supported by new bullish inflows.
Despite its reputation, May has historically been a positive month for the equity market, although gains have been backend-loaded towards the last week of the month, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
May tends to be a positive month with an average gain of 0.93% dating back to 1983 and 0.68% over the last 10 years, the firm said.
“The six months from May through October haven’t necessarily been a negative period for equities, but historically, it is the weakest six-month stretch on the calendar,” Bespoke noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* McDonald’s Corp. results fell short of expectations in the first quarter, hampered by slowing growth in the US and the reverberations of the Israel-Hamas war.
* Coca-Cola Co. issued a more optimistic 2024 forecast after first-quarter results outpaced Wall Street’s expectations as customers in markets around the world continue to pay higher prices and drive volume growth.
* 3M Co. plans to slash its dividend, ending more than six decades of boosting the payout each year as it enters a new era following the spinoff of its health-care products division.
* Eli Lilly & Co.’s brighter outlook for 2024 raised the potential ceiling for new weight-loss drugs even further in the eyes of analysts and investors.
* PayPal Holdings Inc.’s payment volume climbed 14% in the first quarter on increased consumer spending globally, giving a boost to the firm’s shares in early trading.
* Meta Platforms Inc.’s social media platforms Facebook and Instagram are under investigation from the European Union amid concerns they’re failing to cull targeted disinformation peddled by Russia that aims to sow discord on the continent.
* Walmart Inc.’s deal to buy smart-TV maker Vizio Holding Corp. will undergo an in-depth antitrust review by the Federal Trade Commission, Vizio said Tuesday.
* Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. warned of pressured margins for the remainder of the year, even as quarterly earnings beat estimates.
* Paramount Global replaced Chief Executive Officer Bob Bakish, appointing a management committee as the board negotiates a possible change in control of the company.
* MicroStrategy Inc. posted a first-quarter loss after taking an impairment charge against the value of its roughly $13 billion in Bitcoin holdings even though the cryptocurrency surged during the period.

Key events this week:
* Holiday across much of Europe, Wednesday
* Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, Wednesday
* US ADP employment change, JOLTS job openings, ISM Manufacturing, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve rate decision, Wednesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* US factory orders, initial jobless claims, trade, Thursday
* Apple earnings, Thursday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, ISM Services, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0672
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2495
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 157.72 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 5.5% to $59,476.83
* Ether fell 7.4% to $2,941.03
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.68%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.58%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.35%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $81.60 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.8% to $2,292.50 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani and Alexandra Semenova.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The soul is dyed the color of its thoughts.  Think only on those things that are in line with your principals
and can bear the light of day.  The content of your character is your choice.
Day by day, what you do is who you become. –Heraclitus, c. 6th century BC- c. 5^th century BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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