Category: Events

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

Look up this weekend: You might see one of the best meteor showers of the year.
On Aug. 9, 1945, the United States exploded a nuclear device over Nagasaki, Japan, instantly killing an estimated 39,000 people. The explosion came three days after the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. Go to article >>
August 9, 1974: Nixon resigns.

Coco Chanel, designer, b. 1883.

Jerusalem’s Second Temple was built with gigantic stone blocks — now we think we know where they came from.
Archaeologists discovered a 2,000-year-old rock quarry in Jerusalem which may have provided the massive stone building blocks used in the Second Temple. Read More.

Scientists drill longest-ever piece of Earth’s mantle from underwater mountain near ‘Lost City’.
Scientists just pulled the longest hunk of Earth’s mantle from beneath the ocean. Read More.

‘Extremely unusual’: Hottest ocean temperature in 400 years threatens the Great Barrier Reef
The sea surface temperature around the Great Barrier Reef this year is the hottest it has ever been in 400 years, posing huge threats to the coral reef ecosystem in the area. Full Story: Live Science (8/8) 

Researchers want to build ‘streetlights’ on the moon — and they’d be taller than the Statue of Liberty
A private company has received funding from the U.S. government to build the first-ever “streetlights” on the moon — towering, Statue of Liberty-sized structures that could withstand the brutal lunar night. Read More.

San Diego Zoo’s new giant pandas make their public debut
Too adorable to bear! CNN got an upfront viewing experience of the first giant pandas to debut in the US in more than 20 years. Watch the video here.

Team USA men’s basketball advances to Olympic gold medal game
Team USA, led by LeBron James and Steph Curry, defeated Serbia 95-91 on Thursday. They will now take on France in the gold medal game on Saturday. 

Olympic champion Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone smashes world record and makes history
The 25-year-old superstar won the gold medal in the women’s 400-meter hurdles in a world record time of 50.37 seconds.

Baking soda water is the new health trend
Some say baking soda water helps improve exercise performance, acid reflux, energy levels and more. Here’s what the experts think.

Pot of gold coins uncovered in excavation of ancient Greek city
The excavation of an ancient Greek city in Turkey uncovered a stash of gold coins from about 2,500 years ago. See the photo here.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Al-Alamein, Egypt
Paragliders fly over a beach on the Mediterranean coast
Photograph: Amr Nabil/AP
Nevsehir, Turkey
Fairy chimneys are seen with light illuminations created with different techniques in Cappadocia. The chimneys are formed by volcanic eruptions and erosions over millions of years and are considered as one of the unique characteristics of the geography.
Photograph: Harun Ozalp/Anadolu/Getty Images

A whale breaches as Brazil’s Tatiana Weston-Webb and Costa Rica’s Brisa Hennessy compete in the women’s surfing semi-finals during the Paris 2024 Olympic Games in Teahupo’o, Tahiti
Photograph: Jérôme Brouillet/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for August 9^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39497.54	+51.05
		+0.13%
S&P 500	5344.16	+24.85
		+0.47%
NASDAQ	16745.30	+85.28
		+0.51%
TSX	22311.30	+85.68
		+0.39%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	35025	+193.85
		+0.56%
HANG SENG	17090.23	+198.40
		+1.17%
SENSEX	79705.91	+819.69
		+1.04%
FTSE 100*	8168.10	+23.13
		+0.28%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.114	3.177
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.183	3.246
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.9398	3.9896
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.2186	4.2775

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7281	0.7282
US$	1.3735	1.3733

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5000	0.6667
US $	1.0922	0.9156

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2411.45	2411.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	76.84	75.23

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1974, President Richard Nixon resigned, crippled by the Watergate scandal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%. 
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 85.68 to 22,311.30 in Toronto. The index advanced to the highest closing level since Aug. 1.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.2%. Iamgold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 15.4%.
Today, 126 of 226 shares rose, while 94 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 0.4%
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.9% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 19.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 on a trailing basis and 15.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.53t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.63% compared with 14.72% in the previous session and the average of 11.64% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 51.1250| 0.7| 21/5
Materials | 28.8149| 1.1| 40/12
Information Technology | 16.5000| 0.9| 7/3
Energy | 15.0311| 0.4| 23/15
Real Estate | 0.7292| 0.1| 13/5
Health Care | -0.1703| -0.3| 1/3
Communication Services | -0.1717| 0.0| 2/3
Consumer Staples | -1.4267| -0.1| 3/8
Consumer Discretionary | -4.0114| -0.5| 4/9
Utilities | -6.0890| -0.7| 4/11
Industrials | -14.6474| -0.5| 8/20
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | | Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 8.6900| 1.2| -31.3| 10.2
Shopify | 8.2820| 1.0| -45.9| -7.8
TD Bank | 7.1820| 0.8| -75.6| -8.5
Restaurant Brands | -4.5320| -2.1| -16.4| -6.5
Canadian Pacific | | | |
Kansas | -4.6930| -0.7| -31.5| 1.9
Algonquin Power | -5.1560| -12.6| 366.6| -11.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rebound in stocks in the final stretch of a wild week drove the market to its biggest back-to-back advance in 2024.
That semblance of calm stands in stark contrast to the recent gyrations that rattled the global financial world. After the many ups and downs — including Monday’s panic selling — the S&P 500 nearly wiped out its losses for the week.
There’s been no shortage of drama in August, hitting a market that was showing signs of exhaustion. Worries about the Federal Reserve being behind the curve after some weak economic numbers left traders on edge. Conflicting views around Japan’s policy path have worsened the convulsions, with the battered carry trade ricocheting across asset classes.
“Even if that nerve-racking event is over, we learned how sensitive markets now are to cooler US economic data, how broad- reaching the impact of the yen carry trade can be, and how conditioned investors are to expect rate cuts as the salve for every scrape,” said Liz Young Thomas at SoFi.
At Lazard, Ronald Temple noted that the severity of the slide was a reminder the market has appreciated materially, reaching valuations that most would agree were extended. Still, he views the selloff as “excessive.”
“For investors who measure performance in years, indiscriminate drawdowns like that seen in the last week can represent great opportunities if the fundamentals have not materially changed,” he said.
The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, while finishing down for a fourth straight week — its longest losing streak since September 2023. Expedia Group Inc. climbed on better-than-expected results. Cisco Systems Inc. plans to eliminate thousands more jobs in a second round of layoffs this year, Reuters reported.
Treasury 10-year yields fell five basis points to 3.94%.
After pricing aggressive Fed cuts this week, traders pared bets to about 100 basis points of easing for the year. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg see only a quarter-point decrease in September. That’s at odds with calls from some big banks for a jumbo cut.
To John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management, the bull market has room to run.
“We’re still bullish on stocks, he said. “US economic fundamentals remain on solid footing despite the drag of tight monetary policy, which we believe will soon be reduced.” Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — subsided further on Friday, hovering around 20. That’s after an unprecedented spike that took the gauge above 65 on Monday, a rare level normally signaling utter panic. That unusual surge has raised some questions on whether the index was actually “overstating” all that stress in the US stock market.
The old saying that “volatility is the price you pay for equity market returns” is absolutely true, but deciphering what volatile markets say about the future is a valuable exercise nonetheless, according to Nicholas Colas at DataTrek Research.
“Current market conditions are not comfortable, to say the least,” Colas said. “But they are neither flashing a robust recession warning nor condemning the current bull market to a premature end. After a rough week, we take comfort in that message.”
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers urged the Securities and Exchange Commission and relevant exchanges to look into the historic surge in the most-watched gauge of US financial volatility on Monday.
“My understanding is that because there are some illiquid instruments that go into the calculation of the VIX, the VIX had a somewhat artificial move on Monday,” Summers said on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin on Friday.
“Since that is so widely watched an indicator, issues of liquidity, issues around how it settles, I think should be studied by the relevant parties in the industry and the
regulator — the SEC.”
As broad-based selling gripped equity markets early this week, a sentiment signal sank to one of its lowest points in history.
The stock-bond ratio — which compares the S&P 500 against a long-dated Treasury to test whether equities are cheap or expensive compared to bonds — also serves as a measure for market sentiment, said Dean Christians at SentimenTrader.
And similar periods of panic-driven fear in the past were followed by excellent returns. Since 1962, the ratio dipped this far only 13 other times, and in more than 90% of those instances, the S&P 500 rallied a year later.
At Bank of America Corp., Michael Hartnett says the turbulence has yet to reach proportions that would signal worries about a hard economic landing.
“Technical levels that would flip Wall Street’s narrative from soft to hard landing have not been broken,” Hartnett said.
“Investor feedback is ‘frazzled’,” but expectations of Fed rate cuts mean that preference for stocks over bonds hasn’t been ended by the market rout, he added.
For now, the absence of any major economic news until next Wednesday’s consumer price index will likely lead to subsiding market volatility, according to Mark Luschini at Janney Montgomery Scott.
Still, he notes that August and September are seasonally weak for equities — so volatility might expect to be present, especially in the midst of a contested presidential election.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro was unchanged at $1.0919
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2762
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 146.64 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $60,668.49
* Ether rose 0.8% to $2,591.07
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.94%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.22%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.94%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1% to $76.98 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,430.32 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Robert Brand, Chiranjivi Chakraborty and Richard Henderson.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Great thoughts speak only to the thoughtful of mind, but great actions speak to all mankind. –Theodore Roosevelt, 1858-1919.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
On Aug. 8, 1974, President Richard Nixon announced he would resign following damaging revelations in the Watergate scandal.  Go to article >>

August 8, 1854: Smith & Wesson patents metal bullet cartridges.
Dustin Hoffman, actor, b. 1937.
The Edge, musician, b. 1961.
Roger Federer, tennis player, b. 1981.

Siberian gold miners accidentally find ancient woolly rhino mummy with horn and soft tissues still intact
A mummified woolly rhino discovered by miners in Russia’s Sakha Republic is to be fully excavated in the coming months, as researchers begin studying its intact horn. Read More.

Gargantuan waves in Earth’s mantle may make continents rise, new study finds
Dramatic cliffs and high plateaus are caused by the same wave triggered in Earth’s middle layer when continents pull apart, a new study finds. Read More.

NASA might send Starliner home without its crew — leaving astronauts stuck in space until 2025
The Crew-9 handover has been delayed amid rumors that NASA could be planning to return the troubled Starliner spacecraft without its astronauts. Read More.

WHO may declare new, deadlier mpox outbreak an international emergency
The World Health Organization will soon convene a committee to decide if the ongoing mpox outbreak constitutes a “public health emergency of international concern.” Read More.

Unique transistor ‘could change the world of electronics’ thanks to nanosecond-scale switching speeds and refusal to wear out
A new material can withstand ‘billions’ of electrical cycles without wearing out — and scientists say it could transform electronics within 10 to 20 years. Read More.

Tug of war, pistol dueling and other strange Olympic Games
Breaking, or breakdancing, is far from the first unconventional sport to be allowed into the Olympic Games. Here’s a look at some of the strangest Olympic sports in modern history.

The race to become the world’s first document-free airport
Abu Dhabi International plans to expand its biometric technology and become the world’s first airport to go passport-free. Read why airports want to rely less on paper and more on facial recognition tools.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Skanderborg, Denmark
The Nigerian singer Burna Boy performs at the Smukfest festival
Photograph: Helle Arensbak/EPA
Cape Point, South Africa
Waves break at Dias Beach at the Cape Point reserve, where a 17-year-old French schoolboy on a rugby tour went missing in the sea
Photograph: Rodger Bosch/AFP/Getty Images
Italy’s Sofia Raffaeli performs with the ball as she competes in the rhythmic gymnastics’ individual all-around qualification.
Photograph: Loïc Venance/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for August 8^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39446.49	+683.04
		+1.76%
S&P 500	5319.31	+119.81
		+2.30%
NASDAQ	16660.02	+464.21
		+2.87%
TSX	22225.61	+344.66
		+1.58%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	34831.15	-258.47
		-0.74%
HANG SENG	16891.83	+13.97
		+0.08%
SENSEX	78886.22	-581.79
		-0.73%
FTSE 100*	8144.97	-581.79
		-0.73%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.177	3.151
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.246	3.230
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.9896	3.9469
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.2775	4.2445

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7282	0.7273
US $	1.3733	1.3749

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4994	0.6670
US $	1.0918	0.9159

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2411.45	2396.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	75.23	75.23

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1896, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, less than three months old, hit the lowest level ever recorded: 28.48, down 30.5% in just 10 weeks.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.6% at 22,225.61 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since Feb. 15 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 7.2%.
MDA Space Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 12.4%.
Today, 195 of 226 shares rose, while 29 fell; all sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain four times. The next day, it advanced after all four occasions
* So far this week, the index was unchanged
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.2% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 18.9% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 3.8% in the past 5 days and rose 0.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.48t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.72% compared with 13.97% in the previous session and the average of 11.51% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 97.8325| 1.5| 22/4
Information Technology | 68.8238| 3.9| 9/1
Energy | 60.3836| 1.5| 37/4
Materials | 45.3523| 1.7| 46/6
Industrials | 31.4003| 1.1| 25/3
Consumer Discretionary | 14.0066| 1.8| 13/0
Consumer Staples | 11.4993| 1.2| 7/4
Utilities | 7.5908| 0.9| 13/2
Real Estate | 3.0486| 0.6| 15/4
Communication Services | 2.7338| 0.4| 4/1
Health Care | 1.9976| 3.2| 4/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 53.0700| 7.2| 46.3| -8.7
Brookfield Corp | 20.1700| 3.4| 42.5| 14.8
Canadian Natural Resources | 16.7800| 2.4| -42.1| 8.8
Stantec | -2.5740| -2.8| 247.1| 5.3
Pan American Silver| -3.1950| -4.7| 124.0| 17.9
Nutrien | -5.1840| -2.3| 31.9| -15.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks staged a solid rebound and bonds retreated after the latest US labor-market reading helped ease concern about a more pronounced slowdown in the world’s largest economy.
All major groups in the S&P 500 advanced, with the gauge notching its biggest rally since November 2022 as data showed US initial jobless claims tumbled the most in nearly a year.
As economic angst subsided, Treasuries dropped across the curve — with the selloff led by shorter maturities.
Bonds held their losses after a weak $25 billion sale of 30-year government debt.
Markets have been in a tailspin since last week’s economic data spurred concerns the Fed is waiting too long to cut rates, jeopardizing prospects for a “soft landing.”
Those jitters combined with stretched positioning, underwhelming technology earnings and poor seasonal trends were among the factors triggering volatility.
“Some good news with jobless claims,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance. “We are exercising caution, but think that the panic that started earlier in the month was overblown.”
At Interactive Brokers, Steve Sosnick says he has an important question for the buyers: “Are you the same people who were clamoring for an emergency 50 basis-point rate cut on Monday?”
“Can we say that today’s number has quelled the looming recession fears? Absolutely not,” he added. “Can we say that stock traders remain fixated on buying dips and chasing rallies?  Absolutely yes. Does the latter indicate that we desperately need rate cuts to keep markets afloat? C’mon, quit your whining.”
The S&P 500 rose 2.3%.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 3.1%.
The Russell 2000 of smaller firms added 2.4%.
Nvidia Corp. led gains in mega-caps.
Eli Lilly & Co. soared on a bullish outlook driven by sales of its weight-loss drugs.
Treasury 10-year yields rose five basis points to 3.99%.
Swap traders further trimmed bets on aggressive Federal Reserve easing in 2024.
Cryptocurrencies surged, with investors returning to riskier assets across financial markets.
“It has been quite a week,” said Liz Young Thomas at SoFi.  “Up, down, and all around. Even if that nerve racking event is over, we learned how sensitive markets now are to cooler US economic data, how broad reaching the impact of the yen carry trade can be, and how conditioned investors are to expect rate cuts as the salve for every scrape.”
That said, Thomas believes there is more volatility to come, and cooler economic and earnings data that will need to be digested for the remainder of the year.
“Volatility can be unsettling, but it can also be an opportunity to revisit your allocations and do a gut check on what level of risk you’re comfortable with, given the wide variety of possible outcomes,” she concluded.
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, the issue right now is whether the Fed should be easing soon or not — and whether a large upfront move is likely or not.
“We are rallying today because of jobless claims!” Dutta said. “That’s unusual. If you get some downside surprises in the data next week, guess what happens? It will just fuel chatter back into the notion that the Fed is a bit behind the curve.”
While the recent stock-market rout flushed out some froth, US stocks remain at risk of more severe declines if growth continues to decelerate and the Fed “does not show urgency” in easing monetary policy, according to Dubravko Lakos-Bujas at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Equities are no longer a “one-way upside trade, instead increasingly a two-sided debate on growth downside risks, Fed timing, crowded positioning, rich valuation, and rising election and geopolitical uncertainties,” Lakos-Bujas said.
Treasuries experienced a perfect storm over the past two weeks, with investors likely to remain focused on carry trade unwinds, labor market and growth data, inflation, and geopolitical risks in the weeks to come, according to TD
Securities’ Gennadiy Goldberg.
“Markets will remain worried about the risk to a 50 basis-point cut in September and intermeeting cuts, though the pricing for both has receded significantly from recent highs,” he said.
“A faster pace of Fed rate cuts also remains a worry, and we expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at each meeting starting in September until rates reach neutral at 3% by late-2025.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Paramount Global, the parent of Nickelodeon, MTV and other channels, took a second-quarter impairment charge of $5.98 billion on its cable networks, in yet another sign of weakness in the traditional TV industry.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. expects $380 million in lost revenue this quarter from the CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. technology outage that forced the carrier to cancel thousands of flights last month.
* Apple Inc. is planning a new version of the Mac mini that will be its smallest desktop computer yet, part of a broader overhaul of the Mac line with AI-focused chips.
* Eli Lilly & Co. is narrowing the gap with rival Novo Nordisk A/S in the race to dominate the red-hot obesity market as it expands its supplies of weight-loss drugs.
* Under Armour Inc. reported results that exceeded analysts’ expectations and raised its guidance as the athletic-wear brand shows signs of improvement under returning founder Kevin Plank.
Some of the main moves in the market:
Equites
* The S&P 500 rose 2.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 3.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0917
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2745
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 147.15 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 7.8% to $59,441.88
* Ether rose 9.6% to $2,576
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.99%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.27%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 3.98%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $76.09 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.7% to $2,423.75 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cristin Flanagan, Robert Brand, John Viljoen, Julien Ponthus, Allegra Catelli, Divya Patil and Richard Henderson.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Art is a lie which makes us see the truth. –Pablo Picasso, 1881-1973.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com         

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
August 7, 1959: First photo ever of Earth from space.

1882: Hatfield-McCoy feud erupts.
August 7, 2008: Russia invades Georgia, eventually annexing the country 16 days later.
2009: Former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin accused President Barack Obama of proposing a “death panel” that would decide who receives treatment in his health care plan.  Go to article >>

The next world’s tallest building could be a 3,000-feet-high battery
Skyscrapers could soon have a new purpose: storing renewable energy. See renderings of the innovation here.

Thieves are still targeting Hyundai and Kia cars
After a rash of stolen cars, Hyundai and Kia’s new anti-theft software is showing results. But data shows thieves are still targeting some older models at an alarming rate.

MTV announces VMA nominations 2024
The nominations for MTV’s Video Music Awards were announced on Tuesday, and unsurprisingly, Taylor Swift leads among the pack.

‘A king will die’: 4,000-year-old lunar eclipse omen tablets finally deciphered
Tablets added to the British Museum’s collection many decades ago have finally been deciphered. Read More

‘Crazy idea’ memory device could slash AI energy consumption by up to 2,500 times
By performing computations directly inside memory cells, CRAM will dramatically reduce power demands for AI workloads. Scientists claim it’s a solution to AI’s huge energy consumption. Read More.

Huge cosmological mystery could be solved by wormholes, new study argues
The universe is expanding at an ever accelerating rate — and tiny wormholes that bore through the fabric of space-time might be to blame, a new study proposes.
Full Story: Live Science (8/7)

China ready to launch 1st satellite in constellation that will challenge Elon Musk’s Starlink
China plans to launch more than 100 satellites for its new “constellation” this year and thousands more by the end of the decade. Read More.

Earth from space: ‘Smoking terror’ volcano that destroyed city 400 years ago burps toxic cloud
A 2018 astronaut photo shows Nicaragua’s active Momotombo volcano spitting out a cloud of toxic gas and steam just a few years after its latest eruption. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Leba, Poland
A member of the Grupa Magnifica acrobatics club takes a leap on the beach by the Baltic sea
Photograph: Sergei Gapon/AFP/Getty Images

Edinburgh, UK
The massed pipes and drums create an anchor formation on the esplanade during the Royal Edinburgh Military Tattoo at Edinburgh Castle. This year the Royal Navy takes the helm of the show, called Journeys, with a celebration of nautical themes
Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

​​​​​​​Taizhou, China
Farmers harvest gorgon fruit – the edible seeds of a giant water lily – in a pond
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for August 7^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38763.45	-234.21
		-0.60%
S&P 500	5199.50	-40.53
		-0.77%
NASDAQ	16195.80	-171.05
		-1.05%
TSX	21880.95	-98.41
		-0.45%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	35089.62	+414.16
		+1.19%
HANG SENG	16877.86	+230.52
		+1.38%
SENSEX	79468.00	+874.93
		+1.11%
FTSE 100*	8166.88	+140.19
		+1.75%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.151	3.115
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.230	3.191
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.9469	3.8919
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.2445	4.1792

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7273	0.7257
US $	1.3749	1.3780

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5027	0.6655
US $	1.0929	0.9150

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2396.55	2396.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	73.20	73.20

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1990, The Wall Street Journal published market guru Joe Granville’s forecast that the stock market would crash within days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average barely budged, finishing the month at 2614 and soaring past 3200 by spring 1992.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fourth day, dropping 0.5%, or 99.43 to 21,879.93 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since June 28.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 175 of 226 shares fell, while 48 rose.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.2%.
OceanaGold Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.1%.
Insights
* The index advanced 8.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.7% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 17.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 4.1% in the past 5 days and fell 0.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.5t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 13.97% compared with 13.93% in the previous session and the average of 11.37% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -84.2335| -3.1| 2/50
Financials | -77.6661| -1.1| 7/19
Industrials | -25.7134| -0.9| 5/23
Consumer Staples | -17.6174| -1.8| 2/9
Consumer Discretionary | -10.6701| -1.4| 2/11
Real Estate | -7.1881| -1.5| 1/19
Utilities | -4.6058| -0.5| 2/13
Health Care | -0.7828| -1.2| 1/3
Communication Services | -0.3566| 0.0| 4/1
Energy | 25.9081| 0.7| 17/22
Information Technology | 104.5198| 6.3| 5/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | -25.5600| -4.2| 32.4| 11.0
Agnico Eagle Mines | -13.6400| -3.8| 87.0| 36.7
Couche-Tard | -11.7900| -2.9| -10.3| 0.5
Canadian Natural Resources | 4.3450| 0.6| -31.7| 6.3
Suncor | 20.0400| 4.4| 136.1| 25.3
Shopify | 112.5000| 17.9| 186.8| -14.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The rapid slide in US stocks that followed a weak $42 billion sale of Treasuries underscored the fragility of global financial markets in the wake of historic volatility.
After an equity surge driven by the Bank of Japan’s dovish signals, the S&P 500 wiped out its gains.
Investors shunned the 10-year US bond auction, which drew a yield that was well above the pre-sale indicative level.
The weaker-than-expected demand signaled the recent rally may have run its course.
Treasuries also came under pressure as 17 blue-chip companies offered $31.8 billion of debt, the highest amount of US investment-grade issuance this year.
At Nationwide, Mark Hackett says the latest events have been a “masterclass” in how emotions can dominate the movement in markets, particularly when sentiment and positioning are nearly universally positive.
“Stocks remain vulnerable,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“More evidence of a bottom is needed to excite the bulls again. Overall, sentiment remained cagey. Not many people were confident to buy this latest dip, especially with US CPI looming next week.”
Following a gain of almost 2% earlier in the session, the S&P 500 closed 0.8% lower.
Nvidia Corp. led losses in mega caps.
Super Micro Computer Inc. tumbled 20% on disappointing earnings.
In late trading Warner Bros.
Discovery Inc., the parent of CNN and TNT, plunged after posting a charge of $9.1 billion as it wrote down the value of its traditional TV networks.
Treasury 10-year yields rose six basis points to 3.95%.
The Japanese yen fell 2%.
Mexico’s peso led a rally in emerging markets, easing pressure on currencies that had been hammered as investors abandoned yen-funded bets on riskier assets.
Despite the correction, strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. say there’s little evidence that equities entered oversold territory like in October 2023, for example.
“On our calculations for the equity allocation at the global level to return to post-2015 average levels, equity prices would have to decline by a further 8% from here,” Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his colleagues wrote in a note Wednesday.
Earlier gains in stocks were fueled by Japan’s reassurance on the heels of massive swings in the country’s stock prices over the past week.
The moves were compounded by the view the Federal Reserve would cut rates more aggressively, prompting traders to rapidly unwind once-popular yen-funded carry trades —including crowded positions in US tech stocks.
The global unwinding of the carry trade triggered by the BOJ surprisingly more hawkish stance last week – that in turn strengthened the yen markedly – has eased considerably, according to Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial.
“Markets globally have felt a sigh of relief as the velocity of the unwinding eases, but the yen’s relationship to the dollar is also a key component of the carry trade calculus,” she noted.
“A softer dollar, driven by the markets perception that the Fed will soon initiate an easing cycle, should help support a stronger yen — a negative for the trade.”
Markets have been in a tailspin due to recent weak US data, but it’s still too soon to suggest the economy is heading for a downturn, according to Franklin Templeton Institute.
After a surge in Treasuries, “it makes sense” to take some profit, Stephen Dover wrote.
US Treasury yields are probably too low in the absence of “broad-based evidence that an acute deterioration is underway in either the labor market or in market function,” according to strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“The case for a meaningful rally from here is that one (or both) of those risks materialize,” William Marshall and Bill Zu wrote. “Under more benign outcomes, we think the center of gravity for yields is likely to be above current levels across the curve, in relative parallel versus the forwards.”
To Will Compernolle at FHN Financial, Treasury yields are now comfortably higher than their Monday lows, projecting a sense of calm after financial markets went haywire at the beginning of this week.
“It’s too early to declare the chaos over, however, and Treasury yields could veer back lower during light August trading and a relative data vacuum the rest of this week,” he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Walt Disney Co. gave a mixed picture as it reported third-quarter results on Wednesday, with weakness at its famed theme parks offsetting its first-ever profit in streaming.
* Shopify Inc. reported second-quarter sales and profit that beat analysts’ estimates, showing that the Canadian e-commerce company is managing to navigate cautious consumer spending.
* CVS Health Corp. lowered its 2024 earnings outlook for the third straight quarter and announced cost-cutting measures to save $2 billion over several years as health-care expenses continue to soar.
* Ride-hailing company Lyft Inc. posted second-quarter bookings and issued an outlook that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
* Boeing Co. is redesigning the fuselage component that blew out of a nearly new 737 Max 9 aircraft mid-flight in January, as the plane maker seeks to draw lessons from the accident that has thrown it into crisis.
* Novo Nordisk A/S reported disappointing sales of its blockbuster weight-loss treatment Wegovy, a rare setback for the Danish drugmaker as it braces for more competition in the booming market.
* Rivian Automotive Inc. is sticking with a full-year vehicle production target unchanged from last year, but its chief executive officer expects output to grow in 2025 even with a plant shutdown looming.
* Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. said its assets under management rose to a record of approximately $1 trillion, and it reported profit that increased from a year ago but still missed analysts’ expectations.

Key events this week:
* Germany industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Thursday
* China PPI, CPI, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4:04 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0922
* The British pound was unchanged at $1.2691
* The Japanese yen fell 1.8% to 146.87 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3% to $54,848.88
* Ether fell 5.7% to $2,348.53
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.95%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 2.27%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 3.95%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3% to $75.40 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,386.65 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Robert Brand, Sujata Rao and Winnie Hsu.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Integrity may be difficult to define, but what constitutes lack of integrity is of such seriousness as to disqualify a person for a managerial position. –Peter F. Drucker, 1909-2005.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Hiroshima Day.
On Aug. 6, 1945, the United States dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima, Japan, that instantly killed an estimated 66,000 people in the first use of a nuclear weapon in warfare.  Go to article >>

Alfred Lord Tennyson, poet, b. 1809.
Lucille Ball, comic actress, b.1911.
Andy Warhol, artist, b.1928.

17th-century pirate ‘corsair’ shipwreck discovered off Morocco’s Barbary Coast
The wreck is the first time the remains of a pirate corsair have been found in the region known as the Barbary Coast. Read More.

Dancing Girl: A pint-size statue from the Indus Valley Civilization with a larger-than-life presence
The statue was created by the Indus Valley Civilization, a Bronze Age culture that once inhabited what is now Pakistan. Full Story: Live Science (8/5)

Sapphires form inside the fiery hearts of volcanoes, not deep in the mantle like we thought
A new study of sapphires found in volcanic fields in Germany reveals that these beautiful blue stones form where magma and rocks from Earth’s crust mix. Read More.

We finally know where the moon’s atmosphere comes from
“We give a definitive answer that meteorite impact vaporization is the dominant process that creates the lunar atmosphere.” Read More.

Why do you feel less hungry when it’s hot out?
We know that people in colder environments eat more calories. But why does our hunger abate in the heat? Read More.

Drop the beat: Breaking is making its Olympics debut in Paris
The breaking competition this Friday and Saturday will feature athletes from more than a dozen countries. Here’s how their performances will be scored.

Eat the beet: Why you should get 5 fruit and vegetable servings a day
Fruits and vegetables are without question an important part of nutrition — but a new study shows how important they are to chronic disease prevention.

China moon samples reveal water molecules in major discovery
Finding water on the moon is, on its own, nothing new. But experts say one of China’s groundbreaking discoveries could help understand how water is stored on the lunar surface.

How did ancient Egyptians stack the stones of the oldest pyramid?
Scientists are floating a new theory on how Egypt’s first pyramid was built more than 4,000 years ago.

New tech will trap CO2 from cargo ships and store it in the ocean
A US startup wants to equip cargo ships with reactors that turn carbon dioxide from the engines into ocean salts. Here’s how the process could significantly reduce ships’ CO2 emissions.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

New Jersey, US
Mammatus clouds pass over the lower Manhattan skyline as the sun sets over New York City
Photograph: Gary Hershorn/Getty Images

Hangzhou, China
People browsing in a bookshop
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Frankfurt, Germany
A regional train passes fields in Wertheim, near Frankfurt, early in the morning
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP
Market Closes for August 6^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	38997.66	+294.39
		+0.76%
S&P 500	5240.03	+53.70
		+1.04%
NASDAQ	16366.85	+166.77
		+1.03%
TSX	21979.36	-248.27
		-1.12%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	34675.46	+3217.04
		+10.23%
HANG SENG	16647.34	-51.02
		-0.31%
SENSEX	78593.07	-166.33
		-0.21%
FTSE 100*	8026.69	+18.46
		+0.23%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.115	3.000
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.191	3.090
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.8919	3.7904
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.1792	4.1072

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7257	0.7211
US $	1.3780	1.3867

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5061	0.6640
US $	1.0930	0.9149

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2396.55	2454.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	73.20	73.52

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1979: Paul Volcker took office as chair of the Federal Reserve Board. Over the following decade, Volcker broke the back of inflation by pushing interest rates as high as 20%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 1.1%, or 248.27 to 21,979.36 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since July 2.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.7%.
Algoma Steel Group Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.0%.
Today, 168 of 226 shares fell, while 53 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 16 times. The next day, it declined 10 times for an average 0.6% and advanced six times for an average 0.6%
* The index advanced 8.6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.3% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 17.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 3.5% in the past 5 days and fell 0.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.7 on a trailing basis and 15 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.53t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 13.93% compared with 14.01% in the previous session and the average of 11.24% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -80.4847| -2.9| 2/50
Financials | -69.9927| -1.0| 2/25
Industrials | -39.2428| -1.3| 8/19
Information Technology | -19.7024| -1.2| 3/7
Consumer Staples | -13.0749| -1.3| 1/10
Energy | -11.1262| -0.3| 12/27
Consumer Discretionary | -10.2968| -1.3| 1/12
Utilities | -3.3412| -0.4| 8/6
Health Care | -1.3330| -2.1| 0/4
Real Estate | 0.1489| 0.0| 13/6
Communication Services | 0.1530| 0.0| 3/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -16.5900| -1.7| 40.5| -9.7
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -15.1200| -2.1| 77.1| 2.0
Wheaton Precious Metals | -13.4900| -5.3| 81.4| 15.8
Intact Financial | 2.5060| 0.8| 64.5| 22.0
Restaurant Brands | 3.4050| 1.6| 21.7| -4.6
BCE | 3.8250| 1.3| 90.7| -7.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A renewed wave of dip buying spurred a rebound in stocks after a roughly $6.5 trillion selloff that shook markets around the globe.
All major groups in the S&P 500 rose, with the gauge finishing 1% higher as dip buyers emerged to scoop up bargains left after a plunge that sent major benchmarks to “oversold” territory.
During Monday’s big rout, hedge funds that make both bullish and bearish equity wagers snapped up individual US stocks at the fastest pace since March, reversing a months-long selling spree,  according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage.
A day later, Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — sank the most since 2010.
A semblance of calm returned to markets, following a pullback fueled by weak economic data, underwhelming tech results, stretched positioning and poor seasonal trends.
Buying US shares after a slump of the scale witnessed over the past month has usually been profitable, according to Goldman Sachs.
Since 1980, the US benchmark has generated a median return of 6% in the three months that followed a 5% decline from a recent high.
“The market by any metric is ‘oversold’ and due for a bounce,” said Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial. “The lingering question now is whether the concerns that pushed the market into a cascade of selling are alleviated. Pockets of volatility are expected to continue.”
As demand for haven assets waned globally, Treasuries fell — with the rise in yields helping smooth a $58 billion auction of three-year notes in afternoon trade.
Traders are also moderating expectations of deep Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
Swaps point to around 105 basis points of easing, compared to as much as 150 basis points on Monday.
“The Fed worries about systemic risk in financial markets, not disappointed investors,” said David Donabedian at CIBC Private Wealth US.
“Thus, the Fed is unlikely to change its course of action due to a stock market correction. Are we headed for a near term recession, or are markets overreacting? We believe slower growth is unfolding, not a recession.”
The S&P 500 rose to 5,240.
Nvidia Corp. jumped 3.8% to lead gains in chipmakers.
Both the “Magnificent Seven” gaige of mega caps and the Russell 2000 of small firms added 1.2%.
In late trading, Airbnb Inc. gave a disappointing outlook.
Amgen Inc. reported sales that beat estimates and said it planned to increase capital spending on its obesity drug.
Treasury 10-year yields jumped 10 basis points to 3.89%.
The Japanese yen slipped after a recent surge that saw an unwind of popular carry trades. Bitcoin climbed.
Oil bounced back from a seven-month low.
The wall of worry the market built up over the past few days drove the S&P 500 to the brink of a correction, with a drawdown of about 8.5% from the highs.
While such sharp declines in equity prices are concerning, historic data show “dips, pullbacks and corrections of 10% or more” are a normal and healthy part of any bull market, according to George Smith at LPL Financial.
Roughly 94% of the years since 1928 have experienced a pullback of at least 5%, and 64% of years have had at least one 10% correction, he noted.
“We believe that how common these occurrences are should provide comfort to equity investors, allowing them to be patient, stay invested, and most importantly, to not panic,” Smith said.
There have been 354 such days since 1928 when the S&P 500 was down 3% or more, and the average (and median) three-month, six month and one year forward returns are all higher than long-term averages, Smith at LPL noted.
“Excesses are burned off. It doesn’t feel good, but it’s a healthy part of the process,” said Ben Kirby at Thornburg Investment Management.
Donabedian at CIBC says volatility may persist for a while.
But ultimately, he believes the secular bull market will continue.
“Corrections happen. Even in the best of times, stock prices do not go up in a straight line,” he noted.
“As easier monetary policy takes hold in the months ahead, it may also unleash a more balanced tone to equity returns, and the search for value beyond the Magnificent Seven.”
To Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments, evidence against the prevailing “soft landing” view has forced the market to catch up to reality, but there’s not enough evidence to merit panic selling and an emergency acceleration of interest rate cuts.
“We would characterize the recent market pullback as a textbook correction, after months of low volatility so far in 2024,” said Carol Schleif at BMO Family Office.
“The lack of volatility before the past few weeks is unusual, and our current correction is actually quite normal, especially during August, which historically is a volatile time for markets given lighter trading volumes and the summer doldrums.”
Schleif warns that while the equity market came to correction territory, it’s typically wise to let a bit of dust settle before putting new money to work as there is risk of “catching a falling knife.”
“Get used to the volatility,” said Savita Subramanian at Bank of America Corp. “The best hedge is owning high quality stocks (we use earnings and dividend stability as our key measure).
Market tranches based on quality have a well-behaved relationship with the VIX – the highest quality stocks tend to outperform as the VIX rises while the lowest quality stocks tend to lag the most.”
Long-term investors don’t need to worry about short-term gyrations, said Michael Sansoterra at Silvant Capital Management.
“It’s good to have these washouts on occasion,” he said. “They keep investors honest.”

Key events this week:
* China trade, forex reserves, Wednesday
* US consumer credit, Wednesday
* Germany industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Thursday
* China PPI, CPI, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0931
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.2691
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 144.64 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.9% to $56,496.85
* Ether rose 1.8% to $2,479.86
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 3.89%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.20%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 3.92%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.1% to $73.03 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2,388.03 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Robert Brand, Aya Wagatsuma, Rheaa Rao and Isabelle Lee.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
The bravest sight in the world is to see a great man struggling against adversity. –Lucius Annaeus Seneca, 4 BCE-65 CE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

August 2, 1870: World’s first underground railway opens for passengers in London.  It goes bankrupt within a few months.
August 2, 1939 Albert Einstein signed a letter to President Franklin D. Roosevelt urging creation of an atomic weapons research program.  Go to article >>
1964: Jackie Robinson joins a CORE demonstration at the NYC construction site of Downstate Medical Center to protest racial discrimination in hiring.

Auroras expected tonight and through the weekend as US braces from ‘cannibal’ solar eruption
The last gasp of a “cannibal” coronal mass ejection that slammed Earth on Tuesday will bring lovely auroras to parts of the northern US and most of Canada tonight, with more northern lights displays on the way this weekend.
Read More.

World’s largest iron ore deposits formed over 1 billion years ago in supercontinent breakup
Huge iron ore deposits in Western Australia’s Hamersley Province formed when major tectonic events led to the breakup of supercontinent Columbia and to the amalgamation of Australia. Read More.

Scientists uncover microbes that destroy ‘forever chemical’ pollutants
Little is known about the fate of PFAS in our environment, but new research finds that bacteria in wastewater can degrade specific types of “forever chemicals.” Read More.

World’s ‘best-performing’ quantum computing chip could be used in machines by 2027, scientists claim
New ion-trap chip eschews lasers for an integrated circuit that can be mass produced in existing semiconductor factories. Read More.

What are the sharp spikes on roses called?
Many say thorns, others say prickles. Let’s settle this debate once and floral. Read about roses’ spiky origins and some common misconceptions about the popular flower.

Judge throws out the $4.7 billion NFL ‘Sunday Ticket’ verdict
The NFL said it was “grateful” after a judge threw out the $4.7 billion jury verdict surrounding its “Sunday Ticket” package.

From Harlem to Selma to Paris: Today would have been James Baldwin’s 100th birthday. See his life in pictures.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Argyll and Bute, UK
‘Sun and cloud in the Highlands, near the Bridge of Orchy.’
Photograph: Owen Holland

A grey heron touching down in Koçacay Delta, Turkey. The area is important for natural life with its floodplain forests, lagoons and large sand dunes
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Paris, France
Italy’s Filippo Macchi competes against Cheung Ka Long of Hong Kong during the men’s foil individual gold medal bout during the Paris Olympic Games 2024 at Grand Palais.
Photograph: Catherine Steenkeste/Getty Images
Market Closes for August 2^nd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39737.26	-610.71
		-1.51%
S&P 500	5346.56	-100.12
		-1.84%
NASDAQ	16776.16	-417.98
		-2.43%
TSX	22227.63	-495.58
		-2.18%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	35909.70	-2216.63
		-5.81%
HANG SENG	16945.51	-359.45
		-2.08%
SENSEX	80981.95	-885.60
		-1.08%
FTSE 100*	8174.71	-108.65
		-1.31%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.000	3.107
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.090	3.168
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.7904	3.9760
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.1072	4.2759

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7211	0.7209
US $	1.3867	1.3871

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5140	0.6605
US $	1.0917	0.9160

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2454.55	2454.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	73.52	77.91

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1990, Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Over the next two-and-a-half months, the U.S. stock market lost 19% and many experts forecasted a protracted bear market. Yet, just one year later, U.S. stocks were up 26.9%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 2.2%, or 495.58 to 22,227.63 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.3% on Feb. 13.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 191 of 226 shares fell, while 33 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.5%.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. had the largest drop, falling 9.4%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss once
* So far this week, the index fell 2.6%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Sept. 22
* The index advanced 9.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.2% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 18.9% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.61t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.01% compared with 12.08% in the previous session and the average of 11.17% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -165.4381| -2.3| 2/25
Energy | -114.2906| -2.8| 1/40
Information Technology| -84.2520| -4.8| 0/10
Materials | -66.7516| -2.4| 9/42
Industrials | -51.2249| -1.7| 1/27
Consumer Discretionary| -8.7161| -1.1| 2/10
Consumer Staples | -8.3478| -0.8| 1/10
Real Estate | -4.6681| -0.9| 6/14
Health Care | -2.3446| -3.5| 2/2
Utilities | 1.1294| 0.1| 5/10
Communication Services| 9.3447| 1.3| 4/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -44.2000| -6.5| 142.0| -26.9
RBC | -33.7100| -2.2| -50.4| 11.2
Canadian Natural Resources | -33.4100| -4.6| -29.2| 6.6
Telus | 3.7140| 1.6| 146.4| -2.3
Fortis | 3.8240| 1.9| 25.6| 8.3
Enbridge | 6.8330| 0.9| 43.3| 10.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The selloff in stocks intensified and bond yields tumbled as a weak jobs report fueled worries that the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates at a two-decade high is risking a deeper economic slowdown.
Those fears roiled trading around the globe, spurring a massive surge in volatility while triggering a flight away from the riskier corners of the market.
The S&P 500 saw its worst two-day slide since March 2023.
A plunge in key technology companies sent the Nasdaq 100 down 10% from its peak, matching the definition of a “correction.”
A rally in Treasuries extended into a seventh straight day, with traders projecting the Fed will cut rates by a full percentage point in 2024.
The rout in equities follows a torrid advance partly driven by bets on a “soft economic landing” that would keep driving Corporate America.
While the Fed has been able to successfully bring down inflation, the latest jobs figures may give officials some reason to believe their policies are cooling the labor market too much.
“Bad news is no longer good news for stocks,” said John Lynch at Comerica Wealth Management. “Of course, we’re in a period of seasonal weakness, but sentiment is fragile given economic, political, and geopolitical developments. Pressure will escalate on the Federal Reserve.”
Wall Street giants like Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are now calling for more aggressive Fed action.
Speaking on Bloomberg Television, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said officials won’t overreact to any one piece of data, echoing comments by Jerome Powell on Wednesday.
To Scott Wren at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, markets have turned attention from “when and how much will the Fed ease” to a mindset of “growth looks like it is plunging and the Fed is behind the curve.”
“After the big equity run higher, investors are taking money off the table and booking profits,” Wren said. “Expect the near-term volatility to continue.”
The S&P 500 slid 1.8%. The Nasdaq 100 sank 2.4%.
The Russell 2000 tumbled 3.5%.
Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — soared toward its highest since March 2023.
Intel Corp. plunged 26% on a grim growth forecast.
Amazon.com Inc. slid about 9% on a profit miss.
Treasury 10-year yields declined 18 basis points to 3.8%.
The dollar fell 0.7%.
“Oh dear, has the Fed made a policy mistake?” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management. “The labor market’s slowdown is now materializing with more clarity. A September rate cut is in the bag and the Fed will be hoping that they haven’t, once
again, been too slow to act.”
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 114,000 — one of the weakest prints since the pandemic — and job growth was revised lower in the prior two months.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed for a fourth month to 4.3%, triggering a closely watched recession indicator.
“This marks an official ‘growth scare’ and one that the Fed will have to pay close attention to,” said George Mateyo at Key Wealth. “To be true, the economy is still expanding and jobs are still being added, so calls that a recession is upon us are over-stated in our view. But the economic environment is changing quickly and the Fed should be attentive to downside risks.”
How much should investors worry about a slowdown? “The big question is are we sliding right into a recession? “Or is the economy simply hitting a rough spot?” said Ryan Detrick at Carson Group. “We’d side with we will still avoid a recession — but the risks are rising.”
At Evercore, Krishna Guha says he doesn’t think the evidence overall suggests the labor market is cracking — but it is clearly softening and may weaken more — so there is ample cause for the Fed to pull forward cuts.
To Lara Castleton at Janus Henderson Investors, the “soft landing narrative” is now shifting to “worries about a hard landing.” While fears of a policy mistake are rising, she thinks one negative miss shouldn’t lead to overreaction given that other data points that still show economic resilience.
“Equities selling off should be seen as a normal reaction, especially considering the high valuations in many pockets of the market,” she said. “It’s a good reminder for investors to focus on the earnings of companies going forward.”
With just three meetings left, swap pricing shows anticipation that the Fed will make an unusually large half- point move at one of the gatherings or act between its scheduled meetings — indicating that policymakers will start moving rapidly to bolster growth.
Yet, large moves have signaling effects that communicate an emergency or aggressive response.
To many Fed-watching economists, Friday’s labor market data didn’t rise to a level of imminent threat that has caused the committee to make big moves in the past.
To Chris Low at FHN Financial, the market is “probably right” to think the Fed should cut by 50 basis points, but psychology is as important as data at turning points.
“FOMC participants are more likely to take it slowly with a quarter-point cut at first, if for no other reason than to project calm and control,” he said.
“From a Fed perspective, this does not translate into making hasty policy decisions, but it should help them remove the rose-tinted glasses when assessing policy decisions at the next meeting,” said Charlie Ripley at Allianz Investment Management.
Stocks are likely to fall when the Fed delivers its first rate cut because the pivot will come as data signal a hard — rather than soft — landing for the US economy, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
In the history of the start to Fed easing since 1970, cuts in response to a downturn have proved negative for stocks and positive for bonds, the BofA strategist wrote in a note, citing seven examples that demonstrated this pattern.
“One very important difference in 2024 is extreme degree to which risk assets have front-run Fed cuts,” Hartnett said.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 3.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 1.1% to $1.0912
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2809
* The Japanese yen rose 1.9% to 146.59 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $62,592.26
* Ether fell 4.9% to $3,011.61
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 18 basis points to 3.80%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 2.17%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 3.83%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.1% to $73.97 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,436.77 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren, Lynn Thomasson and Lu Wang.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Hypocrisy in anything whatever may deceive the cleverest and most penetrating man,
but the least wide-awake of children recognizes it, and is revolted by it,
however ingeniously it may be disguised. –Leo Tolstoy, 1828-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
Lammas: 1rst harvest, Wicca.

August 1, 1789: US Customs established.
August 1, 1981 The music video channel MTV made its debut. Go to article >>
August 1, 1990: World Wide Web established.
August 1, 1996: American author George R.R. Martin publishes “A Game of Thrones”, the first installment in his hugely popular fantasy series “A Song of Ice and Fire.”

Herman Melville, writer, b.1819.
Yves St. Laurent, designer, b. 1936.
Jerry Garcia, musician, b.1942.

All eyes on Simone Biles as she goes for women’s all-around gold
Simone Biles is hoping to take her second all-around victory at the Olympics alongside teammate and friend Suni Lee in the coming hours. Here’s when you can tune in.

Katie Ledecky leaves her competition in the dust
American swimmer Katie Ledecky won her first gold of the 2024 Games in spectacular fashion with a new Olympic record in the 1500m freestyle. Read how she became one of the greatest swimmers in history.

Maya Rudolph will return to ‘SNL’ to play Kamala Harris
It’s a tense election year, but there’s always room for political comedy. Maya Rudolph is set to reprise her portrayal of Vice President Kamala Harris when “Saturday Night Live” returns for its 50th season this fall.

Your coffee’s getting pricier – and climate change could keep it that way
Coffee roasters are signaling that prices could remain higher for longer, as factors like climate change reduce the global coffee supply.

Never-before-seen shapes up to 1,300 feet long discovered beneath Antarctic ice
The unusual patterns, found beneath West Antarctica’s Doston Ice Shelf, could help scientists to better understand how glaciers erode. Read More.

NASA Mars rover finds ‘first compelling detection’ of potential fossilized life on the Red Planet
A peculiar leopard-spotted rock, found beside an ancient, dried-out river in Mars’ Jezero crater, contains some tantalizing clues of ancient life, NASA said. Read More.

‘Defects’ in silicon chips could house qubits, hastening the arrival of a future quantum internet
Using manufacturing defects in silicon chips to house signal-amplifying qubits could help to usher in the much-anticipated quantum internet. Read More.

‘My jaw just dropped’: 500 million-year-old larva fossil found with brain preserved
The newly discovered Youti yuanshi larva fossil is so well-preserved that it provides a road map for arthropod evolution during the Cambrian period. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Xi’an, China
Iron flower fireworks made from hammered molten iron at the city’s botanical garden
Photograph: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock

Edinburgh, UK
Edinburgh international festival opens with Where to Begin, an immersive outdoor experience
Photograph: Murdo MacLeod/The Guardian

Essex, UK
‘This was one of those still, hot summer evenings where everything was calm and there was a beautiful warm golden light at sunset. Photo taken in Coggeshall.’
Photograph: James Farndell
Market Closes for August 1^st, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40347.97	-494.82
		-1.21%
S&P 500	5446.68	-75.62
		-1.37%
NASDAQ	17194.14	-405.26
		-2.30%
TSX	22723.21	-387.60
		-1.68%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38126.33	-975.49
		-2.49%
HANG SENG	17304.96	-39.64
		-0.23%
SENSEX	81867.55	+126.21
		+0.15%
FTSE 100*	8283.36	-84.62
		-1.01%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.107	3.161
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.168	3.210
U.S.    10 Year Bond	3.9760	4.0296
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.2759	4.3028

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7209	0.7244
US $	1.3871	1.3805

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4971	0.6680
US $	1.0793	0.9266

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2454.55	2390.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	77.91	77.91

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1973, IBM was fined $150,000 a day by a federal judge for contempt of court in a high-profile antitrust case in which the company refused to turn over sensitive documents requested by the U.S. government.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.7% at 22,723.21 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.3% on Feb. 13 and follows the previous session’s increase of 1.3%.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 183 of 226 shares fell, while 40 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.6%.
First Majestic Silver Corp. had the largest drop, falling 13.4%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss four times. The next day, it declined three times for an average 0.3% and advanced 1.5% once
* So far this week, the index fell 0.4%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended June 14
* The index advanced 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.1% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 21.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 3.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 on a trailing basis and 15.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.67t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 12.08% compared with 10.60% in the previous session and the average of 11.05% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -116.4260| -1.6| 1/26
Energy | -76.4201| -1.9| 2/39
Information Technology| -71.1762| -3.9| 0/10
Materials | -57.5349| -2.0| 5/45
Industrials | -54.8795| -1.7| 4/24
Consumer Staples | -16.0573| -1.6| 4/7
Consumer Discretionary| -3.6510| -0.5| 4/9
Utilities | -0.5652| -0.1| 6/9
Health Care | 0.1225| 0.2| 2/2
Real Estate | 2.8960| 0.6| 8/11
Communication Services| 6.1036| 0.9| 4/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -33.1300| -4.6| 93.3| -21.8
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -27.8300| -3.7| 53.6| 6.4
Constellation Software | -24.3400| -4.1| 50.6| 27.2
Waste Connections | 4.3270| 1.0| 80.0| 25.3Enbridge | 7.1300| 0.9| 79.7| 9.3
TC Energy | 7.9020| 1.9| -48.7| 15.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell sharply and bonds rallied as a fresh dose of weak economic data led traders to reconsider whether Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve is wise to hold off cutting interest rates before September.
Thursday’s price action was another episode of extreme day-to-day volatility that has featured rapid rotations into and out of asset classes and sectors, with investors choosing Treasuries as the latest haven trade.
The Nasdaq 100 saw its biggest one-day reversal since May 2022.
In late hours, Intel Corp. tumbled on a bearish forecast.
Amazon.com Inc. also fell on underwhelming results.
Swings across asset markets are widening as investors struggle to assess the economy and earnings at a time when the Fed’s posture is seen one day as stimulative and the next bespeaking concern about future growth.
US 10-year yields broke below 4% — with swap traders now fully pricing in three rate cuts this year.
In the run-up to the jobs report, data showed unemployment claims hit an almost one-year high and manufacturing shrank.
“Markets are approaching panic mode as many economic factors converge, supporting a drift away from risk assets,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
“The headwinds for this market are just too stormy, especially considering that equities are priced for perfection. What are we seeing in the economy: imperfection.”
Jerome Powell signaled Wednesday officials are on course to cut rates in September unless inflation progress stalls — citing risks of further jobs weakening.
Monthly employment data due Friday will probably add fuel to the debate.
Unemployment is now close to triggering a recession indicator developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm that has a perfect track record over the last half-century — the “Sahm rule.”
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, the “ongoing deterioration” in economic data has become clear and “until the Fed begins cutting, they are going to look behind the curve.”
“The labor market has been flashing warning signals over the past several months,” said Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research.
“History suggests Powell is walking a very fine line on potentially waiting too long to start cutting rates before it’s too late.”
The S&P 500 dropped 1.4%. The Nasdaq 100 sank 2.4%.
The Russell 2000 of small caps tumbled 3%. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — hit its highest since April.
Treasury 10-year yields fell six basis points to 3.97%.
The pound slid after the Bank of England cut rates and signaled further cautious reductions ahead.
“Disappointing economic data rattled some nerves today,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“Combine that with a Fed chair that didn’t seem to be worried about unemployment in yesterday’s comments, and suddenly investors think the soft landing may start to look more like a crash. I’m not so sure about that, though. The job market is slowing, but a
slowdown isn’t necessarily a crash.”
“There is a scenario where a rate cut would be viewed negatively for stocks and that is if the rate cut is coupled with the Federal Reserve voicing concern about the economy,” said George Ball at Sanders Morris.
“While that is not a likely scenario, it is not altogether implausible.” At Capital Economics, Thomas Ryan says further decline in manufacturing raises the risk that US growth will lose momentum in the third quarter — and the plunge in the employment index
will add to concern that the “Fed has left it too late to begin loosening policy.”
“The one thing that would cause the Fed to cut more dramatically is if we had a material deterioration in the job market, which is something we are watching closely,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance.
Powell was asked Wednesday about the “Sahm rule” after he and his colleagues decided to leave their benchmark rate unchanged at the highest levels in more than two decades. He said what policymakers “think we’re seeing is a normalizing labor market,” though if “it starts to show signs that it’s more than that, then we’re well positioned to respond.”
“Our first thought on hearing this was, yes, employment has been normalizing,” said Chris Low at FHN Financial.
“But some indicators, including the unemployment rate may be moving past optimal, toward levels consistent with excessive labor slack. Or, in plain English, these indicators are dangerously close to falling short of being consistent with maximum employment —
which is the Fed’s mandate.”
Economists are expecting moderation in job growth in the government’s July employment report due Friday.
Forecasters anticipate the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows 42% of investors think the market reaction to Friday’s jobs data will be “risk-off,” 36% said “negligible/mixed” and only 22% “risk-on.”
“Investors are paying the most attention to payrolls,” said Dennis DeBusschere founder of 22V. “However, the unemployment rate is a close second. Our survey consensus for the unemployment rate is 4.2%.”
The cooling economy has raised market speculation that there will be three rate cuts to come before the year is out, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“In fact, there is now a greater risk tomorrow’s US non-farm payrolls report missing the mark, if today’s labor market indicators are anything to go by,” he said. “Should NFP disappoint, then the calls for the Fed to act will get louder.”
The Fed has been clear on needing more proof of soft inflation prints to cut, but labor-market slowing could lead the Fed to cut rates more aggressively, putting a November cut into play in addition to September and December, according to Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“Rates have moved sharply lower in recent days due to a combination of a more dovish Fed, moderating data, and geopolitical risks,” they said. “As such, a weaker reading could reinforce the move lower in rates, exacerbating the bull-steepening trend.”
Fixed-income ETFs took in a historic amount of cash last month as investors pile into the bond market, positioning for the start of a Fed rate-cutting cycle.
Bond funds saw inflows of roughly $39 billion in July, the most on record, according to data from Strategas.
To Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets, the data won’t be as relevant to expectations for the timing of the first rate cut as it will be to the perceived likelihood the Fed ultimately needs to deviate from the “fine tuning” 25 basis-point quarterly cuts assumption as implied by its projections.
“Said differently, payrolls won’t lead the market to seriously rethink whether a September rate cut is too soon — but the information could easily skew the market-implied path of policy rates toward a more dramatic cutting campaign,” said Hartman.
The Fed is indeed a hot topic this week for global investors trying to time rate cuts. It’s also — unusually — a prominent feature on Corporate America’s post-earnings conference calls.
The words “Federal Reserve” were on track to be mentioned about 380 times on second-quarter calls with analysts, according to a Bloomberg analysis of transcripts of S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 companies.
That would be the highest tally ever in the database’s records going back to 2001, if the current pace holds.
A contrarian stock indicator from Bank of America Corp. rose last month, reflecting Wall Street sentiment at elevated levels.
Although the gauge remains in “neutral” territory rather than at outright “buy” or “sell” thresholds, ultra bearish attitudes toward equities are no longer a tailwind for upside like last year.
As a risk-on momentum in US stocks showed signs of easing in July, several computer-based systematic strategy funds trimmed their equity exposure. But they may not be done selling just yet.
Commodity trading advisers, or CTAs, cut their equity positions to a two-month low in July, according to Bank of America Corp. Those funds typically use a combination of price-trend signals and volatility to determine allocation.
As the stock-market advance hit a snag, CTAs unwound their positions as well.
But to BofA Securities senior equity derivatives research analyst Chintan Kotecha, those CTAs that remain long US stocks should continue to cut their positions, at least in the near-term, as the rally shows signs of stalling.

Corporate Highlights:
* DoorDash Inc. reported a stronger-than-expected profit forecast for the current quarter as the delivery company experiences resilient customer demand and growth from categories beyond restaurant orders.
* Eli Lilly & Co. expects its blockbuster weight-loss drug to officially come out of shortage in the US in the coming days, the company’s chief executive officer said, threatening the billion-dollar industry of copycat versions of the in-demand drugs.
* Moderna Inc.’s post-pandemic future was thrown into question Thursday after it disclosed multiple setbacks that disappointed investors.
* Biogen Inc. raised its profit outlook after cost-cuts and faster sales of new drugs boosted second-quarter earnings.
* Wendy’s Co. trimmed its annual sales guidance following a retreat from US customers in the second quarter, the latest sign that inflation-battered diners are cutting out burger outings.
* Hershey Co. cut its sales and earnings outlook for the year as shoppers continue to reduce purchases of higher priced chocolates and candies.
* WW International Inc., better known as WeightWatchers, is laying off employees and cutting costs as blockbuster obesity drugs have decimated its business.
* R1 RCM Inc. will be acquired by TowerBrook Capital Partners and Clayton, Dubilier & Rice for $8.9 billion in an all-cash deal.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0789
* The British pound fell 0.9% to $1.2739
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 149.70 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.9% to $63,353.96
* Ether fell 2.9% to $3,127.53
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 3.97%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.24%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 3.88%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $76.94 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,442.91 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Dream as if you’ll live forever.  Live as if you’ll die today.  –James Dean, 1931-1955.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

July 31^st, 1879: The first telecommunications cable between South Africa and Europe is laid by the British electrical engineer Charles Tilston Bright.
July 31, 1914 The New York Stock Exchange closed due to the outbreak of World War I. (Trading didn’t resume until December.)  Go to article >>

1790: US Patent Office opens.
Milton Friedman, economist, b. 1912.
J.K. Rowling, writer, b. 1965.

Olympic triathlon goes ahead despite concerns over Seine water quality
The triathlon competitions are scheduled to go forward in Paris today after poor water quality in the River Seine caused the men’s race to be postponed a day earlier.

‘White Dudes for Harris’ online fundraising call goes viral
A series of posts on social media promoted false claims that some NFL quarterbacks had joined a public “White Dudes for Harris” online fundraising call in support of Vice President Kamala Harris. Here are the facts.

ChatGPT is getting chattier with ‘advanced voice mode’
OpenAI stunned users when it demonstrated an updated voice mode for the most advanced version of ChatGPT earlier this year. The company began rolling out the feature to paid users this week.

Lead exposure from common foods
Most dark chocolate contains small amounts of lead and other heavy metals, a new study found. See which other products are on the FDA’s list of foods most contaminated with lead.

Ancient Egyptians used a hydraulic lift to build their 1st pyramid, controversial study claims
A massive water-treatment facility located near the Nile River may have been used to build the pyramid of Djoser. Read More.

Massive sinkholes in China hold ‘heavenly’ forests with plants adapted for harsh life underground
Plants growing at the bottom of sinkholes in China’s Dashiwei Tiankeng Group don’t take up as much carbon as surface plants do, but they have much higher levels of nutrients in their tissues. Read More.

‘Simone is a very, very rare bird’: Experts discuss the science behind Simone Biles’ gymnastic prowess
Even among the world’s most elite gymnasts, American Simone Biles, now competing in her third Olympic Games, is a standout. Read More.

‘Absurdly fast’ algorithm solves 70-year-old logjam — speeding up network traffic in areas from airline scheduling to the internet
Researchers have devised an “absurdly fast” algorithm to solve the problem of finding the fastest flow through a network. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Victoria, Australia
Demonstrators demanding action on the scarcity of social housing place origami houses on the steps of the Victorian Parliament.
Photograph: James Ross/AAP

London, UK
A technician applies the finishing touches to Little Cloud World, a public art installation in Covent Garden’s Market Building, by artists FriendsWithYou
Photograph: Paul Grover

​​​​​​​Falkirk, UK
‘The Kelpies are such stunning sculptures that the photos almost took themselves. I’m hooked and can’t wait to return.’
Photograph: Nicola Turner
Market Closes for July 31^st, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40842.79	+99.46
		+0.24%
S&P 500	5522.30	+85.86
		+1.58%
NASDAQ	17599.40	+451.98
		+2.64%
TSX	23110.81	+286.13
		+1.25%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39101.82	+575.87
		+1.49%
HANG SENG	17344.60	+341.69
		+2.01%
SENSEX	81741.34	+285.94
		+0.35%
FTSE 100*	8367.98	+93.57
		+1.13%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.161	3.232
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.210	3.283
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.0296	4.1394
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3028	4.3967

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7244	0.7222
US $	1.3805	1.3847

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4948	0.6690
US $	1.0828	0.9235

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2390.25	2391.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	77.91	75.81

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1914, with war raging in Europe, the New York Stock Exchange closed—and stayed shut for another four-and-a-half months to allow the chaotic market to settle
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 1.3%, or 286.13 to 23,110.81 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.4% on July 10.
Today, energy stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 173 of 226 shares rose, while 53 fell.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.5%.
New Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 13.1%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 11 times. The next day, it advanced 10 times for an average 0.6% and declined 0.3% once
* This month, the index rose 5.6%, heading for the biggest advance since November 2023
* The index advanced 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.1% in the past 5 days and rose 5.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.63t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.60% compared with 10.32% in the previous session and the average of 11.00% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 83.1891| 2.1| 36/5
Materials | 57.1060| 2.0| 46/6
Information Technology | 52.5760| 2.9| 9/1
Financials | 49.0034| 0.7| 17/10
Industrials | 30.6777| 1.0| 23/5
Consumer Staples | 7.9492| 0.8| 11/0
Utilities | 7.2584| 0.8| 12/3
Communication Services | 3.8098| 0.5| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 0.9396| 0.1| 9/4
Health Care | 0.2918| 0.4| 3/1
Real Estate | -6.6633| -1.3| 2/18
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural
Resources | 24.7200| 3.5| -33.4| 12.9
Shopify | 21.6300| 3.1| 21.3| -18.0
Suncor | 17.2500| 3.6| -26.5| 29.9
Sun Life Financial | -2.3960| -0.9| 108.8| -0.3
Dollarama | -2.8060| -1.1| -5.4| 35.5
TD Bank | -2.8480| -0.3| -43.4| -4.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell helped extend a rally in stocks that started with surge in key technology companies, with the market scoring its best Federal Reserve Day in two years.
Equities staged a powerful rebound, with the Nasdaq 100 up 3%.
Nvidia Corp. surged 13% on a bullish analyst call.
The world’s most-valuable company added a record $329 billion in value.
In late trading, Meta Platforms Inc. soared on a sales beat.
Qualcomm Inc., the world’s biggest seller of smartphone processors, gave a strong revenue forecast.
Treasury yields slipped alongside the dollar.
Powell said the Fed could cut rates “as soon as” September.
Policymakers also made several adjustments to the language of a statement Wednesday.
Notably, the committee shifted to saying it is “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” rather than prior wording focused just on inflation risks.
“Press conference is somewhat more dovish than statement,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
“All in all, it definitely sounds like they are just waiting for the sake of waiting. After all, by his own admission, all the data are already pointing in the direction he wants to see!”
A $563 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 (ticker: SPY) climbed 1.6%.
Along with a 1% gain in an ETF of longer-dated Treasuries (ticker: TLT), Wednesday’s cross-asset rally was the largest of the year for such sessions when monetary policy was announced.
A Bloomberg gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps jumped 3.5%.
The Russell 2000 of small firms added 0.5%.
Treasury 10-year yields declined eight basis points to 4.06%.
Oil rose after Hamas said Israel killed its political leader, stoking geopolitical risks.
The yen rallied as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and announced plans to cut bond purchases.

Wall Street’s Reaction to Fed:
* Peter Boockvar at the Boock Report:
Powell so wants to say today ‘let’s do it’ — but at the same time, he knows he doesn’t have to commit just yet before he gets more time and data.
* Ryan Detrick at Carson Group:
As expected, the Fed is setting the table for interest rate cuts starting at their next meeting in September. Inflation has improved substantially, and we’ve even seen wages come back to earth the last few months. The reality is inflation is slowing and the Fed doesn’t
need rates this high anymore. In fact, one very real worry is the economy could slow over the coming quarters and this is why rate cuts are necessary. We think three cuts this year are quite likely.
* Rajeev Sharma at Key Wealth:
The Fed’s language today has opened the door wider for a September rate cut, but falls short of committing to one. Markets should anticipate a more likely signal for a September rate cut at Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole address in late August, where he will have another month of jobs and inflation data in hand.
* Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley:
Today was simply a placeholder—a day the markets were looking for more assurance about a September rate cut. They didn’t necessarily get anything concrete from the Fed’s statement, but if economic data continues to weaken over the next several weeks, the discussion may shift to speculation that the Fed has waited too long to pivot. That sentiment has the potential to add to the stock market’s choppiness as we head toward what is historically its most volatile period.
* Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial:
The markets positive reaction suggests traders and investors alike see the Fed easing at the September meeting because inflation continues its path lower rather than an emergency cut because the labor market is deteriorating.
* David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy at Trade Station:
The Fed inched toward a rate cut by noting higher unemployment and saying inflation is only somewhat elevated. The data has moved in Powell’s direction and now he’s getting ready to follow. Given the amount of time before the September meeting, this is what we’d expect at this time. Jobs data on Friday and CPI in two weeks are the next big items points. If those go well, we could get clearer messaging from Powell at Jackson Hole in late August.
* Brian Henderson at BOK Financial:
From an economic standpoint, if they cut twice this year, it won’t be a huge impact, and the rule of thumb is that it will take nine to 18 months before the economy feels the full brunt of rates going higher or, in this case, rates coming down. approach. Although it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, dawdling now unnecessarily increases the risk.
* Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist, Principal Asset Management, said:
The balanced statement should fool nobody. The Fed contemplates its word choice long and hard, and the new emphasis to risks to both sides of the dual mandate adds a slight dovish twinge which cracks the door open to the September cut that everyone is expecting.
* Scott Pike at Income Research + Management:
Today’s FOMC Statement, with the slightly dovish shift to the language around both inflation progress and labor market balance, helps moves us further down the path towards a rate cut at their meeting in September.
* Greg McBride at Bankrate:
The Fed has tee’d things up nicely for a September rate cut– as long as the inflation data cooperate. The escape hatch from cutting rates is if inflation doesn’t continue to demonstrate consistent movement toward the 2% target. There are no less than four changes in wording within the Fed’s statement that acknowledges the evolving picture in the job market. If the job market should show evidence of cooling off at an alarming pace between now and the September Fed meeting, the first rate cut could be a larger half-point cut. There would be plenty of advance notice if this should come to pass.
* Julian Howard at GAM Investments:
Pressure to cut rates is mounting. However, for the Fed, it’s no slam dunk. Credibility matters a lot. If the economy softens and inflation eases further but the Fed has done nothing in the meantime, that will be seen as sleepwalking. It is then likely the dreaded words ‘policy error’ will start to circulate. Today’s decision may not have been a surprise, but to say that September’s one will be closely watched would be an understatement.
* Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers:
The statement shows a shift in the decision weights of the US central banks from a large weight on inflation to a balanced set of weights between unemployment and inflation. This opens the door to a September cut without calling it for sure.
* Bill Adams at Comerica Bank:
The unemployment rate is ticking higher, payrolls growth and wage growth are slowing, and inflation by the Fed’s preferred yardstick is trending lower and doesn’t look far from 2% with glasses off. These data are tangible evidence that the US economy is around the point where the Fed should take the foot off the brake.
* Jeffrey J. Roach at LPL Financial:
The Fed used today’s statement to prepare markets for upcoming rate cuts. As inflation rates improve and unemployment increases, the Fed can cut rates yet keep the nominal funds rate above the inflation rate. Markets will likely respond favorably to the subtle shift in tone.

Corporate Highlights:
* The US is considering unilateral restrictions on China’s access to AI memory chips and equipment capable of making those semiconductors as soon as next month, a move that would further escalate the tech rivalry between the world’s biggest economies.
* Boeing Co. appointed Kelly Ortberg as its next chief executive officer, entrusting a retired veteran of the aviation industry with one of the most complex turnaround challenges in corporate America.
* Mastercard Inc.’s profit beat estimates on strength in customer spending and online payments.
* Intel Corp. plans to eliminate thousands of jobs to reduce costs and fund an ambitious effort to rebound from an earnings slump and market share losses.
* Starbucks Corp. delivered results that were in line with expectations, assuaging investors who had been bracing for another meltdown after being blindsided by the previous quarter’s slump.
* Pinterest Inc. warned that revenue in the current quarter will be lower than analysts’ predictions.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. is bracing for a $500 million negative impact from the technology breakdown this month that led to thousands of canceled flights and tarnished the carrier’s reputation.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, unemployment, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, ISM Manufacturing, Thursday
* Amazon, Apple earnings, Thursday
* Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
* US employment, factory orders, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0820
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2853
* The Japanese yen rose 1.9% to 149.80 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $65,043.01
* Ether fell 0.8% to $3,253.76
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.06%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.30%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 3.97%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.9% to $78.38 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.6% to $2,449.50 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang and Jessica Menton.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
We either make ourselves miserable, or we make ourselves strong.  The amount of work is the same. –Carlos Castaneda, 1925-1998.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

July 30, 1921: Insulin is first isolated as a pancreatic extract by Canadian scientists Sir Frederick G. Banting and Charles H. Best.
1945: The USS Indianapolis, which had just delivered key components of the Hiroshima atomic bomb to the Pacific island of Tinian, was torpedoed by a Japanese submarine; 880 men lost their lives. Go to article >>

1935: Paperback books introduced.
Emily Bronte, author, b. 1818.
Henry Moore, sculptor, b.1848.
Henry Ford, industrialist, b. 1863.
Arnold Schwarzenegger, b.1947.

Google’s Olympics ad went viral for all the wrong reasons
To critics online, this Google advertisement appeared to be the latest example of a Big Tech company being disconnected from real people.

Dog’s unlikely friendship delights the internet
A chihuahua and a postman have amassed thousands of followers after the dog’s owner started posting their daily ritual.

Drop bears: The true history of a fake Australian animal
Many countries have a creature that is rumored to exist but is never seen. In Australia, legend has it that creepy koalas drop unexpectedly from trees.

Identity of 2,200-year-old skeleton in ‘Tomb of Cerberus’ is a mystery
Archaeologists have found a shrouded skeleton that was buried around 2,200 years ago in a tomb with extravagant murals. Read More.

China’s Chang’e 5 rover detects hints of water on the moon
The hydrated molecules were found inside a rock sample retrieved by China’s Chang’e 5 mission in 2020. Read More.

Hydrogen-powered VTOL aircraft makes record 523-mile journey — and lands with 10% of its fuel left in the tank
An air taxi has completed the first forward flight of a hydrogen-fueled aircraft capable of vertical takeoff and landing — and it broke a distance record in the process. Read More

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Afyonkarahisar, Turkey
Flamingos feed at Lake Eber at sunset, which is along a migration route. The lake, which looks like a meadow in places due to the density of reed and straw grass and various aquatic plants growing in the region, is home to various bird and fish species
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Paris, France
A young Brazilian fan cools off in front of the Eiffel Tower on day four of the Olympic Games
Photograph: Ryan Pierse/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Beijing, China
People shelter from a rainstorm as the area is issued with a warning for extreme weather
Photograph: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 30^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40743.33	+203.40
		+0.50%
S&P 500	5436.44	-27.10
		-0.50%
NASDAQ	17147.42	-222.78
		-1.28%
TSX	22824.67	+45.11
		+0.20%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38525.95	+57.32
		+0.15%
HANG SENG	17002.91	-235.43
		-1.37%
SENSEX	81455.40	+99.56
		+0.12%
FTSE 100*	8274.41	-17.94
		-0.22%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.232	3.319
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.283	3.368
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1394	4.1939
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3967	4.4523

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7222	0.7220
US $	1.3847	1.3850

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4975	0.6678
US $	1.0814	0.9247

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2391.10	2386.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	75.81	77.16

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1914, stock exchanges in Berlin, Rome and Vienna shut after Austria declared war on Serbia and World War I kicked off. Investors panicked in New York: General Motors plunged 34%and Bethlehem Steel dropped 14%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 6.9% on immense volume.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% at 22,824.67 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since July 22 after the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.2%.
Filo Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.8%.
Today, 129 of 226 shares rose, while 93 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.3%, heading for the biggest advance since November 2023
* The index advanced 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 22.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 4.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.62t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 10.32% compared with 10.32% in the previous session and the average of 11.02% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 28.5215| 0.4| 17/10
Energy | 19.2782| 0.5| 27/13
Consumer Staples | 6.6934| 0.7| 8/2
Materials | 5.5081| 0.2| 29/22
Utilities | 4.9869| 0.6| 11/4
Communication Services | 3.8670| 0.6| 3/2
Health Care | 1.3046| 2.0| 4/0
Real Estate | 0.1529| 0.0| 14/5
Consumer Discretionary | -0.7539| -0.1| 5/8
Industrials | -1.7189| -0.1| 8/20
Information Technology | -22.7379| -1.3| 3/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 21.5500| 2.2| -9.5| -4.5
RBC | 11.9600| 0.8| -35.3| 14.9
Enbridge | 10.4000| 1.4| 42.1| 8.1
First Quantum Minerals | -2.6730| -3.3| -1.5| 47.5
Shopify | -7.9440| -1.1| -22.8| -20.5
Constellation Software | -14.0900| -2.4| 63.5| 29.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A selloff in some of the world’s largest technology companies sent stocks down ahead of key central bank decisions.
Bonds and gold climbed amid a flare-up in geopolitical risks.
Oil remained lower.
Renewed tech weakness weighed on the S&P 500 — with Nvidia Corp. tumbling — even as most of the index’s shares gained.
After an over $2-trillion Nasdaq 100 wipeout, waded through Microsoft Corp.’s results for clues on the outlook for artificial intelligence.
The shares sank 7% in late hours.
The numbers will set the scene for reports from other heavyweights this week, with markets also gearing up for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision.
“If the Fed does not signal a September rate cut, markets could get a bit ugly given recent tech weakness — especially if earnings underwhelm,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
While the Fed is expected to hold benchmark rates at the highest level in more than two decades, traders will be closely watching for any hints that the start of policy easing is near.
In the run-up to the announcement, data showed US consumer confidence rose on an improved outlook for the economy and job openings beat forecasts.
The S&P 500 fell to around 5,435.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 1.4%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps sank 2%.
The Russell 2000 of small firms rose 0.3%.
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. plunged on a report Delta Air Lines Inc. hired an attorney after a tech outage.
Procter & Gamble Co. sank on a sales miss.
JetBlue Airways Corp. soared on a turnaround plan.
Treasury 10-year yields dropped three basis points to 4.14%.
West Texas Intermediate crude hovered near $75.
Israel’s military struck Beirut, aiming at a Hezbollah commander, in response to a rocket attack on Saturday in the Golan Heights.
The yen rose.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will be under intense scrutiny Wednesday when he unveils his plans for quantitative tightening and delivers a decision on the policy interest rate.
Recent yen weakness has done more harm than good for the Japanese economy, according to Japan’s newly appointed top foreign exchange official.
*BOJ BOARD MEMBERS TO DISCUSS RAISING RATES TO 0.25%: NHK Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon told CNBC that one or two Fed rate cuts later this year are looking increasingly likely.
That’s after predicting just two months ago there would be no rate reductions in 2024.
Aside from tech earnings, the continuing broadening of this year’s stock market rally hangs on what the Fed does and says about rates on Wednesday.
Signs of cooling inflation have made traders step up their rotation out of big tech — and into everything from small-capitalization stocks to value plays.
If the Fed is about to begin a rate reduction cycle, stock bulls have history on their side.
In the six prior hiking cycles, the S&P 500 has risen an average 5% a year after the first cut, according to calculations by the financial research firm CFRA.
What’s more, the gains also broadened, with the small-cap Russell 2000 Index climbing 3.2% 12 months later, CFRA’s data show.
To Bank of America Corp.’s Savita Subramanian, the S&P 500 has probably already logged the gains it will see this year, but the benchmark still presents ample opportunities for investors.
While neutral on the index overall, she says there’s potential for strong returns in a few areas: among dividend payers, “old school” capital-expenditure beneficiaries like infrastructure, construction and manufacturing stocks, and other themes that don’t revolve around artificial intelligence.
“In mid-2023, sentiment was deeply negative and our toolkit suggested that the direction of economic and earnings surprises was more likely positive than negative,” Subramanian wrote.
“Today, sentiment is neutral and positive surprises are ebbing.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Pfizer Inc. raised its profit expectations for the year, citing new cancer drugs, as it seeks to dig out of a Covid-related hole in sales.
* Merck & Co. got hit as light sales of its Gardasil HPV vaccine in China dimmed quarterly profit and sales that beat Wall Street estimates.
* SoFi Technologies Inc. raised its forecast for this year’s profit and revenue as the fintech benefits from both its newer technology businesses and its trademark lending operation.
* Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and AGCO Corp. plunged as disappointing earnings heightened concerns about a slowdown in the farming sector after several boom years.
* Airbus SE has initiated a wholesale review of its ailing space business, with Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury saying he’s weighing all possibilities about the future of the subsidiary after it racked up close to $1 billion in charges in the first half.
* L’Oréal SA reported sluggish sales growth in the second quarter as the world’s biggest maker of beauty products suffered from weakness in China.
* BP Plc maintained the pace of share buybacks and increased its dividend as strong second-quarter earnings from pumping crude offset weakness in other parts of the business.
* Grifols SA, the Spanish pharmaceutical company hit by a short seller attack this year, said it overstated the value of its stake in a Chinese firm and reported an accounting adjustment of €457 million ($494 million).

Key events this week:
* Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan policy decision, Wednesday
* US ADP employment change, Wednesday
* Fed rate decision, Wednesday
* Meta Platforms earnings, Wednesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, unemployment, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, ISM Manufacturing, Thursday
* Amazon, Apple earnings, Thursday
* Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
* US employment, factory orders, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0811
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2832
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 153.26 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.1% to $65,939.38
* Ether fell 1.5% to $3,272.72
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.14%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.34%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.04%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $75.09 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $2,407.48 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
First say to yourself what you would be; and then do what you have to do. –Epictetus, c.50 AD- c.135 AD.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.  Opening ceremonies for the Olympics in Paris today.

July 26, 1971: Apollo 15 was launched on a manned mission to the moon.  Go to article >>
July 26, 1972: The Rolling Stones play Madison Square Gardens on Mick Jagger’s 29^th birthday and participate in a pie fight with the audience.

Mick Jagger, b. 1943.
Aldous Huxley, b. 1894.
George Bernard Shaw, b. 1894.
Carl Jung, b. 1875.

The world’s greatest places of 2024, according to TIME
Looking for destination ideas? TIME just released its list of the world’s 100 greatest places to visit in 2024.

A thrilling baseball moment
Dylan Cease, a 28-year-old pitcher for the San Diego Padres, threw the second no-hitter in franchise history on Thursday.

Site of 1893 shipwreck discovered in Lake Michigan
Maritime historians recently found the historic schooner Margaret A. Muir, which was lost in a terrible storm in 1893, just a few miles off a Wisconsin harbor town.

Mangrove Photography Award: Images show the world’s disappearing coastal forests
From powerful cyclones to dreamlike scenery, these award-winning photos show beauty and destruction in nature.

World’s loneliest tree species can’t reproduce without a mate. So AI is looking for one hidden in the forests of South Africa.
A single specimen of an ancient tree species was found in 1895. Now scientists are using AI to find it a mate. Read More.

What causes blushing? Science finally reveals the answer.
A new study harnessed Mariah Carey karaoke and brain scans to reveal the neuroscience behind blushing. Read More.

Strange compound used to treat cancer can extract rare-earth metals from old tech at 99% efficiency
Scientists harness a compound normally used in cancer treatment to reclaim rare-earth elements from electronic waste. Read more.

Antimatter detected on International Space Station could reveal new physics
Eight years ago, the ISS detected weird antimatter particles that challenge our entire understanding of physics. Now, researchers have proposed that mysterious cosmic “fireballs” could help explain the detection. Read More.

Boeing Starliner astronauts remain stuck on International Space Station with no set return date, NASA announces
After nearly two months of postponement, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams are still on board the ISS. But NASA and Boeing say they still plan to return the two aboard Starliner. Read More.

Ultra-rare black hole found hiding in the center of the Milky Way
A potential intermediate-mass black hole is hiding right next to our galaxy’s supermassive black hole. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
Artworks decorate the banks – and even the water – of the River Seine
Photograph: Vadim Ghirdă/AP

A humpback whale swims past an iceberg in Disko Bay near Ilulissat, Greenland. Earlier this year scientists released a study in which they concluded that the country’s glaciers, which all descend from the Greenland Ice Sheet, have retreated about 20% more than previously estimated. Of the 200 glaciers included in the study, only one has grown since 1985. Overall, the amount of glacial ice melting globally has increased markedly over the past 30 years
Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Banc d’Arguin, Mauritania
A traditional sailing boat passes by a colony of birds in the Banc d’Arguin national park. Located in northern Mauritania, the Banc d’Arguin is a nature reserve established in 1976 to protect both the natural resources and the valuable fisheries, which makes a significant contribution to the national economy
Photograph: Michele Cattani/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 26^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40589.34	+654.27
		+1.64%
S&P 500	5459.10	+59.88
		+1.11%
NASDAQ	17357.88	176.16
		+1.03%
TSX	22814.81	+206.78
		+0.91%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37667.41	-202.10
		-0.53%
HANG SENG	17021.31	+16.34
		+0.10%
SENSEX	81332.72	+1292.92
		+1.62%
FTSE 100*	8285.71	+99.36
		+1.21%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.319	3.372
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.368	3.410
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1939	4.2427
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4523	4.4861

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7230	0.7232
US $	1.3829	1.3827

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5025	0.6655
US $	1.0865	0.9204

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2386.10	2421.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	77.16	78.88

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1903, Vermont doctor Horatio Nelson Jackson completed the first crossing of the U.S. by automobile. The journey from San Francisco to Manhattan, with a mechanic and a dog, took 63 days
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.9% at 22,814.81 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.1% on July 16 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Constellation Software Inc/Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.7%.
Winpak Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 7.8%.
Today, 194 of 226 shares rose, while 27 fell; all sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.3%, heading for the biggest advance since November 2023
* So far this week, the index rose 0.5%
* The index advanced 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 22.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.59t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.35% compared with 10.18% in the previous session and the average of 11.09% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 69.6366| 1.0| 27/0
Industrials | 30.7619| 1.0| 22/5
Information Technology | 28.8856| 1.6| 10/0
Energy | 25.2797| 0.6| 32/8
Materials | 24.9545| 0.9| 43/7
Utilities | 7.6572| 0.9| 13/2
Communication Services | 6.8064| 1.0| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 5.4248| 0.7| 11/2
Real Estate | 4.2722| 0.9| 19/0
Consumer Staples | 1.7185| 0.2| 8/3
Health Care | 1.3948| 2.2| 4/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Constellation Software | 16.4000| 2.7| 27.5| 36.1
RBC | 15.9200| 1.1| 94.5| 14.3
Brookfield Corp | 13.3800| 2.1| -36.1| 23.0
Restaurant Brands | -1.6800| -0.8| -43.6| -9.2
Wheaton Precious Metals | -1.8050| -0.7| -14.5| 23.4
TFI International | -1.8660| -1.6| 104.2| 17.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market got a boost at the end of a wild week after key economic data bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will set up the stage for an interest-rate cut in September.
Every major group in the S&P 500 rose Friday on bets that a Fed easing cycle will keep fueling Corporate America — with the bull market broadening beyond a narrow group of companies.
While big tech has enjoyed massive gains this year, concern about the so-called concentration risk has come to the forefront after a disappointing start of the mega cap earnings season.
The rotation into economically sensitive shares has come on the heels of Fed-friendly data.
Investors who for months saw fewer alternatives to a tight group of market winners were suddenly faced with more choices.
Financial, industrial and staples shares have largely beaten tech in July.
Small caps have rallied 10% on bets they’d do better amid lower rates given their higher debt loads.
“We’ve seen this strength in small caps — a significant rotation not seen in decades,” said George Maris at Principal Asset Management. “As we see earnings likely broaden out and recover, you’re going to see greater enthusiasm for those smaller cap names. There is going to be lasting power to this rotation.”
Friday’s economic data only reinforced those bets. The Fed’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation — the so- called core personal consumption expenditures price index — rose at a tame pace in June and consumer spending remained healthy.
Separately, US consumer sentiment eased in July to an eight-month low.
“Certainly, the prospect for interest rate cuts has helped underpin the surge-like move into smaller names as they are more interest rate sensitive than the S&P 500,” said Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial. “Still, there has been a prevailing concern that
because small caps require a solid economic landscape, a weaker US economy could easily hinder investor interest.”
The S&P 500 rose 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.6%. The Nasdaq 100 added 1%.
The Russell 2000 of small caps climbed 1.7%.
Homebuilders hit a record high.
3M Co., the iconic maker of Post-it notes, soared the most since 1980 on a bullish outlook.
An initial public offering for billionaire Bill Ackman’s US closed-end fund was postponed.
Treasury 10-year yields dropped five basis points to 4.19%.
An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 — where the likes of Nvidia Corp. carry the same heft as Dollar Tree Inc. — is beating the US equity benchmark for a third straight week.
This is a notable shift for the measure that’s trailed the US equity benchmark for months.
And it comes as optimism over eventual monetary easing is pushing investors away from the perceived safety of tech mega caps.
“A meaningful rotation from large-cap growth into SMID-cap value has been underway, and we think that will continue,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler. “Our breadth indicators confirmed this seismic shift, along with the technical evidence that investors are reducing their concentration risk in the ‘Lag’ Seven and other large-cap leaders.”
The Fed is likely to signal next week its plans to cut interest rates in September, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, a move they say will kick off reductions each quarter through 2025.
Nearly three-quarters of respondents say the US central bank will use the gathering to set the stage for a quarter-point cut at the following meeting in September.
“It seems the tide has finally turned,” said David Russell at TradeStation, in comments addressing the latest inflation data.
“Investors can now focus on the big earnings next week and worry less about prices and rates.”
“Next week’s earnings reports from a heavy package of mega-cap tech names, will be a crucial test for a market that is trying to find direction amid mixed economic data and underpinned by a historically negative seasonal pattern,” said Krosby at LPL Financial.
Indeed, traders will be on the lookout for a raft of earnings from big tech.
The stakes were already elevated for the group heading into this earnings season.
They just got a lot higher after a rout fueled by this week’s underwhelming results from a pair of mega caps.
Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. are all due to report earnings next week.
“The ‘earnings issue’ will probably still be the more important one as we move into the month of August,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. “If this earnings season continues to weigh on the tech stocks, there is a good chance that it will cause investors to start to ‘rotate’ into cash  — instead of the small cap stocks.”
The rally in the biggest US technology stocks is at risk of fading further if the US economy continues to cool, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
The strategist — who is bullish on bonds for the second half of 2024 — has said signs of an economic slowdown would fuel a rotation into stocks that have lagged behind the pricey tech mega caps this year.
Hartnett said recent data suggested the global economy was “ill,” and that “we are one bad payroll away” from big tech stocks losing their dominance.
Now here’s a piece of advice from Strategas: fear the cut, not the pause — for markets and earnings.
The market tends to perform much better during the period between the last hike in a Fed tightening cycle and the first cut in rates than it does after the first cut in the Fed Funds rate, according to Jason De Sena Trennert and Ryan Grabinski at Strategas.
On average, the market bottoms 213 days later and 23% lower after the first Fed cut in a series of rate cuts.
S&P 500 operating earnings decline by about 10% on average in the 12 months following the first easing, according to Strategas.

Corporate Highlights:
* Honeywell International Inc. is considering an initial public offering of its majority-owned quantum computing firm Quantinuum as soon as next year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* McDonald’s Corp.’s new $5 meal deal has led to a modest increase in US visits and brought back some low-income diners — the first signs that the burger chain’s strategy to appear more affordable is paying off.
* Apollo Global Management Inc. has agreed to buy International Game Technology Plc’s gaming division and the gambling machines company Everi Holdings Inc. in a $6.3 billion, all-cash deal that will see the two businesses merged.
* Apple Inc. lost ground in China’s smartphone market in the June quarter after local companies like Huawei Technologies Co. surged ahead.
* Dexcom Inc. plunged after the maker of blood sugar monitoring devices for diabetics unexpectedly slashed its 2024 sales guidance, catching Wall Street by surprise.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.9%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.9%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0857
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2873
* The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 153.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4% to $67,913.38
* Ether rose 3.6% to $3,267.93
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.19%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.41%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.10%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.9% to $76.80 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.9% to $2,386.90 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Champions aren’t made in gyms.  Champions are made from something they have deep inside them: a  desire, a dream, a vision.
They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will.  But the will must be stronger than the skill. -Muhammad Ali, 1942-2016.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

Pilgrimage of St. Anne d ’Auray, France.
St. James the Great Day.

July 25, 1953, New York City: The subway token is introduced and the fare is raised to 15 cents.
1978: World’s first test-tube baby is born. The first baby conceived by in-vitro fertilization was born in Oldham, England. Go to article >>

The photographer capturing climbers at dizzying heights
Simon Carter’s images capture climbers tackling some of the world’s most stunning rock formations. See the photos here.

‘The Matrix’ turns 25 this year
Actor Keanu Reeves got emotional over how much the beloved sci-fi classic “The Matrix” changed his life over the last 25 years.

‘Spectacular and definitely hazardous’: Yellowstone geyser erupts, firing steam and debris over nearby tourists
A hydrothermal eruption Tuesday surprised visitors walking among the colorful hot springs in Yellowstone National Park’s Biscuit Basin, near the famous Old Faithful geyser. Read More.

Moat that protected ancient Jerusalem’s royalty discovered near parking lot
After a 150-year search, archaeologists found the moat near a parking lot in Jerusalem. Read More.

‘Double’ meteor shower will light up the skies next week. Here’s how to watch.
As Earth’s orbit intersects with those of two comets this month, stargazers will have a chance to view spectacular double meteor showers. Read More.

Next-gen quantum computers could be powered with high-energy lasers made 10,000 times smaller
High-powered titanium: sapphire lasers have been shrunk down with scientists planning to cram hundreds or thousands onto a four-inch wafer in a new chip. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Wales, UK
‘A pony watches us in the opening of Conwy Valley.’
Photograph: Rohan Armon Davies

Lord Howe Island, Australia
‘The fortnightly supply ship, Island Trader, out of Port Macquarie, anchored in the lagoon under Mounts Lidgbird and Bower.’
Photograph: Neil Andrews

​​​​​​​London, UK
‘An interesting top-down view in Kew Gardens.’
Photograph: Jonathan Sheldrick/Guardian Community
Market Closes for July 25^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39935.07	+81.20
		+0.20%
S&P 500	5399.22	-27.91
		-0.51%
NASDAQ	17181.73	-160.68
		-0.93%
TSX	22608.03	-31.54
		-0.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37869.51	-1285.34
		-3.28%
HANG SENG	17004.97	-306.08
		-1.77 %
SENSEX	80039.80	-109.08
		-0.14%
FTSE 100*	8186.35	+32.66
		+0.40%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.372	3.398
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.410	3.427
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2427	4.2838
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4861	4.5419

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7232	0.7244
US $	1.3827	1.3805

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4994	0.6669
US $	1.0844	0.9222

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2421.45	2403.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.88	78.20

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1893, that year’s financial panic reached its low point: Nearly one-quarter of the nation’s railroads headed into bankruptcy and the directors of the NYSE almost closed down the exchange.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.1%, or 31.54 to 22,608.03 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since July 11.
Canadian National Railway Co. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.0%.
Boyd Group Services Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.2%.
Today, 104 of 226 shares fell, while 118 rose; 4 of 11 sectors were lower, led by industrials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 3.3%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.4%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended June 21
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.7% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 20.9% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 3.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 on a trailing basis and 15.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.6t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.18% compared with 10.93% in the previous session and the average of 11.13% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Industrials | -33.3414| -1.1| 14/13
Materials | -32.5677| -1.2| 14/37
Consumer Discretionary | -3.2090| -0.4| 7/6
Consumer Staples | -2.2654| -0.2| 5/6
Health Care | 0.4807| 0.8| 3/1
Utilities | 0.5426| 0.1| 8/6
Communication Services | 1.5421| 0.2| 4/1
Energy | 3.6968| 0.1| 26/14
Real Estate | 5.2170| 1.1| 9/11
Information Technology | 10.4971| 0.6| 7/3
Financials | 17.8604| 0.3| 21/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian National | -12.6400| -2.0| 26.6| -5.8
Barrick Gold | -12.0200| -3.8| -6.8| 2.4
Waste Connections | -10.1500| -2.3| 100.1| 22.7
Constellation Software | 6.6580| 1.1| -12.6| 32.5
Brookfield Corp | 6.9880| 1.1| 72.9| 20.5
TD Bank | 8.4200| 0.9| -38.6| -6.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A renewed selloff in the world’s largest technology companies dragged down the stock market, overshadowing economic data that bolstered confidence the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing.
About 300 companies in the S&P 500 advanced — but the index itself finished lower. While economically sensitive groups such as energy, industrial and financial shares rose, the US equity benchmark’s most-influential sector came under renewed pressure.
The cohort of tech mega caps that has led the bull market continued to largely underperform smaller firms — which have rallied almost 10% in July.
As the S&P 500 marched from one record to the next in the first half of the year, some investors grew concerned that only a handful of companies were participating in the rally.
Corners of the market outside of big tech have recently barreled higher amid confidence the Fed is taming inflation without breaking the economy — and will soon be able to cut interest rates.
“We’re in the midst of a great, rate-led rotation from tech to everything else,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management. “Sure, it’s been painful, but it may be worth weathering this storm for what could come on the other side. Believe in this bull market, or risk getting left behind.”
But not everyone is buying the rotation theme. At Birinyi Associates Inc., Jeff Rubin suggests what is occurring is the more typical correction. “And in a correction, it is hard to find a safe place to hide, but this will pass and will allow you to buy stocks that you wished you had bought months ago.”
The S&P 500 closed below 5,400. The Russell 2000 of smaller companies climbed 1.3% and a measure of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps fell 1.1%.
Alphabet Inc. slumped as OpenAI is letting a limited group of users test a new set of search features.
Tesla Inc. rose after a 12% plunge. Treasury 10-year yields fell three basis points to 4.26%.
Interestingly enough, many equity traders also welcomed the fact that the latest economic figures bolstered market bets on a rate cut in September — and not earlier.
Yes, policy easing usually bodes well for Corporate America, but a rush to slash borrowing costs could actually have an adverse impact on sentiment.
It could signal officials worried about a bigger economic slowdown.
US economic growth accelerated by more than forecast in the second quarter, illustrating demand is holding up under the weight of higher borrowing costs.
Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized rate after rising 1.4% in the previous quarter.
A closely watched measure of underlying inflation ose 2.9%, easing from the first quarter but still above estimates.
“Goldilocks is getting stronger and the risk of stagflation is fading,” said David Russell at TradeStation. “There’s not much ‘stag; and not much ‘flation’.
This kind of GDP report is a potential tailwind for corporate earnings that keeps us on pace for lower rates going forward.”
To Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance, the US economy is much stronger than people realize and to the extent
that markets were worried about a growth slowdown, they should breathe a sigh of relief after the GDP number.
“As long as the economy avoids a recession, then this bull market will continue through 2024 and well into 2025, so we would take advantage of any pullbacks along the way,” he noted.
Thursday’s economic figures do “lend support to the soft-landing narrative” adding that the report “should provide some relief to stressed markets,” according to Matt Peron at Janus Henderson Investors.
“The catch-up trade in smaller stocks should still have room to run,” said Yung-Yu Ma at BMO Wealth Management.
“Earnings growth among smaller companies is set to improve by year end, and the Fed will soon begin a year-long rate cutting campaign which will disproportionately benefit smaller companies.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Meta Platforms Inc. is facing its first European Union fine over allegations it abused its dominance in the classified ad market by tying Facebook Marketplace to its social network.
* EssilorLuxottica SA confirmed Meta Platforms Inc. is interested in buying a stake in the world’s biggest eyewear maker.
* American Airlines Group Inc. cut its earnings outlook as it works to bounce back from earlier blunders that will weigh on revenue and profits for the rest of 2024.
* New York Community Bancorp reported provisions for loan losses higher than every analyst’s estimate.
* Harley-Davidson Inc.’s second-quarter revenue exceeded analysts’ estimates on higher shipments and better sales of pricier motorcycles in North America. It also announced a $1 billion share buyback.
* International Business Machines Corp. reported a jump in bookings for its artificial intelligence business as customers work to implement the latest technology.
* Ford Motor Co. tumbled after a big earnings miss that the automaker blamed on a surge in warranty repair costs for older vehicles.
* Lululemon Athletica Inc. sank as analysts raised fresh concerns about the company’s ability to hit financial targets due to ongoing product execution issues and slowing active wear trends.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0845
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2851
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 153.83 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $64,622.32
* Ether fell 8% to $3,106.9
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.25%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.13%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $78.14 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.5% to $2,361.64 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As always,

Carolann
The reward for virtue is the understanding of the good deed. –Marus Tullius Cicero, 106 BC-43 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com