Category: Events

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Holiday: Sadie Hawkins Day, November 5^th.

Sadie Hawkins, a folk event, made its debut in Al Capp’s Li’l Abner comic strip November 15, 1937.  Sadie Hawkins was the  “homeliest gal in the hills” who grew tired of waiting for the fellows to come a courtin’.   Her father, Hekzebiah Hawkins, a prominent resident  of Dogpatch, was even more worried about Sadie living at home for  the rest of his life, so he decreed the first annual Sadie Hawkins Day, a foot race in which the unmarried gals pursued the town’s bachelors, with matrimony the consequence.  By the late 1930’s the event had swept the nation and had a life o f its own.  Life magazine reported that more than 200 colleges held Sadie Hawkins Day events in 1939, only two years after its inception.  It became a woman-empowering rite at high schools and college campuses, long before the modern feminist movement gained prominence.  The basis of Sadie Hawkins Day is that women and girls take the initiative in inviting the man or boy of their choice out on a date, typically to a dance attended by other bachelors and their aggressive dates.  When Al Capp created the event, it was not his intention to have the event occur annually on a specific date because it inhibited his free-wheeling plotting. However, due to its enormous popularity and the numerous fan letters Capp received, the event became an annual event in the strip during the month of November, lasting four decades.

For more information on Sadie Hawkins, L’ il Abner and Al Capp, see http://www.lil-abner.com.

This day in 1994, George Foreman became the oldest heavyweight champion at age 45 when he defeated 26-year-old Michael Moorer in the 10^th round of their World Boxing Association fight in Las Vegas.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The sculpture ‘Le Penseur’ (The Thinker, 1903) by French sculptor Auguste Rodin (1840-1917) is seen in the garden of the Musee Rodin in Paris, France, Thursday. After a complete restoration over the past three years, the Hotel Biron, home of the Rodin Museum since 1919, will reopen its doors to the public on November 12, 2015, the 175th birthday of the famous French sculptor. Philippe Wojazer/Reuters

Turtles crawl to the ocean after being released, as part of conservation efforts, on the beach of Puerto Quetzal in Guatemala, Wednesday.Jorge Dan Lopez/Reuters

Market Closes for November 5^th, 2015

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	17863.43	-4.15   -0.02%
S&P 500	2101.21	-1.10   -0.05%
NASDAQ	5127.738	-14.741   -0.29%
TSX	13561.58	-100.24
		-0.73%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	19116.41	+189.50
		+1.00%
HANG SENG	23051.04	-2.53
		-0.01%
SENSEX	26304.20	-248.72
		-0.94%
FTSE 100	6364.90	-47.98
		-0.75%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	1.653	1.632
CND. 30 Year Bond	2.378	2.362
U.S.    10 Year Bond	2.2395	2.2250
U.S. 30 Year Bond	3.0073	2.9895

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.75957	0.76030
US $	1.31653	1.31528
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.43286	0.69791
US $	1.08835	0.91882

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1106.30	1114.70
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	45.88	46.32

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks retreated as Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. declined to a two-year low and Magna International Inc. tumbled the most since 2011 on weaker quarterly sales.

     Valeant sank 15 percent for a third day of losses, to a September 2013 low. The drugmaker has now lost 70 percent from an Aug. 5 high amid pressure over how it prices its drugs. Magna, the largest North American auto-parts supplier, tumbled 10 percent as sales slumped 7 percent in the third quarter, missing analysts’ estimates. The two companies accounted for almost 70 points of the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index’s 103.04 point decline.

     The Canadian benchmark equity gauge dropped 0.8 percent to 13,558.78 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The index climbed 1.7 percent in October, the most since April. It was nevertheless the worst performance among 24 developed-nation markets in that time, as a gauge of global equities capped its best month in four years.

     Valeant, briefly the largest stock in the S&P/TSX by market capitalization earlier this year, plunged a record 49 percent in October after short-seller Citron Research accused Valeant of an Enron-like strategy of recording fake sales using an affiliated pharmacy. Valeant denied the allegation.

     The Quebec-based drugmaker and Turing Pharmaceuticals AG are the focus of two probes in Congress seeking to examine why the companies raised the prices of medications sharply after acquiring them. Jana Partners yesterday disclosed it had sold its stake in Valeant due to concerns about the company’s changing business model.

     Investor Bill Ackman, one of Valeant’s top shareholders, gave Chief Executive Officer Mike Pearson a fresh vote of confidence Thursday. While he disagreed with some of Pearson’s decisions, Ackman said in a letter he felt he was the right CEO for the drugmaker.

     Ackman’s letter came after an earlier interview published late Wednesday in which he told the Wall Street Journal how he has pressed the drugmaker’s executives for answers and has told the company’s lead director that Pearson may need to leave.

     Magna International tumbled 10 percent after blaming weakness in the euro and Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar for the “significant negative impact” on sales. Foreign currency translation reduced revenue by about $870 million compared with year-ago figures, Magna said.

     Smaller peer Linamar Corp. also tumbled 7.5 percent for the biggest decline in three months after TD Securities analyst Brian Morrison lowered his rating for the stock to a hold from a buy as consumer discretionary shares lost 2.8 percent.

     Magna is among more than 40 companies in the S&P/TSX reporting quarterly earnings today. Penn West Petroleum Ltd. dropped 8.7 percent as revenue slumped. The company suspended its dividend and cut its workforce by about a third during the quarter. Paramount Resources Ltd. plunged the most in almost three decades after reporting a third-quarter loss late yesterday.

     First Quantum Minerals Ltd. slumped 6.8 percent as copper for December delivery fell 2.9 percent in New York, the most in six weeks. Factory orders in Germany, the third-biggest copper user, unexpectedly dropped for a third month, data showed Thursday. Copper has sunk 20 percent this year as slowing Chinese growth cut demand.

     Hydro One Ltd., Ontario’s largest electricity transmission and distribution company, jumped 5.5 percent in its trading debut. The Ontario government raised C$1.66 billion from the initial public offering, at a price of C$20.50 a share. The stock trades under the “H” ticker on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

US

By Joseph Ciolli

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks closed little changed near a three-month high as the specter of an interest rate increase this year left investors looking to Friday’s jobs report for fresh signs the economy is strong enough to withstand tightening.

     Equities swung between gains and losses in the session as a rally in banks helped erase declines sparked by a renewed selloff in embattled drugmaker Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. Weakness in commodity producers also held back stocks for a second day.

     The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.1 percent to 2,099.93 at 4 p.m. in New York, trimming a drop of as much as 0.6 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 4.15 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 17,863.43. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.3 percent, dragged lower as Qualcomm Inc. and Celgene Corp. fell more than 5 percent after their results disappointed.

     “The only thing that’s certain today is that there are going to be significant price swings in both directions,” said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities Inc. in Los Angeles. “If the implications from the jobs report tomorrow do imply a December rate hike, it could weigh on the market. The Valeant debacle continues to weigh on health-care.”

     Equities trimmed a weekly advance after reaching a three- month high on Tuesday, stalling a rally that boosted the S&P 500 by as much as 13 percent from an August low and carried the benchmark to within 1 percent of its record. Gains in the past two months have been paced by a rebound in commodity shares, after they led declines during a summer selloff sparked by worries that weakness in China’s economy would spread.

     Stocks are coming off their strongest month in four years, bolstered as central banks in Europe and China pledged more stimulus and the Federal Reserve refrained from boosting interest rates in October. Traders now price in a 56 percent chance the Fed will increase rates at next month’s meeting, up from 50 percent earlier this week, after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said yesterday the economy is performing well enough to possibly raise rates in December.

     Fed Bank of New York President William Dudley backed Yellen’s stance that December is a “live possibility,” while Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer expressed confidence that inflation isn’t too far below the central bank’s goal. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said today liftoff “will soon be appropriate,” in remarks prepared for delivery today in Bern, Switzerland.

     Tomorrow’s report on payrolls and unemployment will garner even more scrutiny as it feeds into the Fed’s assessment of the economy’s strength. A report today showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than economists forecast to a five-week high, representing a pause in the recent progress that left claims at their lowest level since 1973.                       

     Mixed earnings reports provided little direction for equities today. Facebook Inc. rose 5.2 percent to a record after posting higher-than-expected revenue and profit. Ralph Lauren Corp. surged 16 percent, the most in seven years after its earnings beat estimates.

     Qualcomm slid 15 percent after the chipmaker’s sales and profit forecasts fell short of some analysts’ estimates, underscoring its struggle to collect technology-licensing fees for smartphones sold in China. CF Industries Holding Inc., the largest U.S. producer of nitrogen fertilizer, fell 9.5 percent after posting lower-than-expected earnings.

     With more than 80 percent of S&P 500 companies having reported, about three-quarters have beaten earnings estimates, while only 45 percent have topped sales forecasts. Analysts estimate profits dropped 3.9 percent in the third quarter, up from predictions for a 6.1 percent decline a week ago.

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index fell 3 percent Thursday to 15.05, down for the first time in three days. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX posted its biggest monthly drop ever in October. About 7.3 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, in line with the three- month average.

     Seven of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries declined, with energy, utilities and raw-materials the worst performers. Financial and consumer discretionary shares rose, while industrials were little changed.

     Energy companies in the benchmark fell 1 percent in volatile trading, led by Transocean Ltd.’s 8.2 percent drop. A plan to slash more than $1 billion in costs next year wasn’t enough to excite investors of the world’s largest offshore rigs provider as signs warn of more pain ahead. Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. retreated more than 1.3 percent as crude fell again after its worst drop in three weeks yesterday.                       

     Valeant lost 14 percent after earlier sliding more than 20 percent. The shares fell below $80 for the first time in more than two years as investors grappled with the drugmaker’s mounting challenges and a top shareholder, Bill Ackman, discussed how his confidence in the company’s leadership had briefly wavered. Ackman later expressed support for Chief Executive Mike Pearson.

     Endo International Plc sank 15 percent, the steepest decline among health-care companies in the S&P 500 and the company’s biggest drop since 2009, despite earnings and sales that exceeded analysts’ estimates. Celgene lost 5.3 percent, the most this year, after quarterly sales were short of analysts estimates as the company’s top cancer drugs didn’t grow as fast as expected. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index slumped 1.9 percent.

     Banks climbed amid speculation that rising bond yields will help boost profitability, as the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield reached a seven-week high. Bank of America Corp. increased 1.8 percent to its highest since Aug. 19. State Street Corp., Bank of New York Mellon Corp. and Comerica Inc. added more than 1.6 percent. The KBW Bank Index gained 1 percent, near its highest level in 11 weeks.

     Ralph Lauren’s 15 percent rally led a group of apparel and accessory companies higher. Fossil Group Inc. climbed 3.1 percent, the most in a month, while PVH Corp. and Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. added more than 2.1 percent.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

What is then worth having?

Mukti, freedom.

Swami Vivekananda

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

There are no traffic jams along the extra mile.

                         -Roger Staubach, 1942-

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7   

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day in 1924, King Tut’s tomb was found.

Also on this day in 1948, T.S. Eliot won the Nobel Prize in literature for his effect on the direction of modern poetry.

The Poem:

Natasha Tretheway writes, “The biologist E.O. Wilson wrote, ‘Homo sapiens is the only species to suffer psychological exile.’  That feeling of disconnection haunts this poem.  Without punctuation, which would separate or halt the fluid movement of thought, the lines seem to connect the past with speakers present longing for what is ineffable.”

After the Voices

   -by W.S. Merwin

Youth is gone from the place where I was young
even the language that I heard here once
its cadences that went on echoing
a youth forgotten and the great singing
of the beginning have fallen  silent
with the voices that were the spirit of them
and their absences were no more noticed
than were those of the unreturning birds
each spring until there were no words at all
for what was gone but it was always so
I have no way of telling what I miss
I am only the one who misses it.

Natasha Tretheway served as the poet laureate of the United States from 2012 to 2014.  W.S. Merwin has written many collection s of poetry, including most recently, “The Moon Before Morning,” published last year by Copper Canyon Press.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sun shines through a Japanese Maple tree at Charles Baber Cemetery in Pottsville, Pa., on Wednesday. The cemetery is the largest green space and also serves as a garden park with tree-lined walking paths, a small spring fed pond and a meditation area. Jacqueline Dormer/The Republican-Herald/AP

A boat makes its way through a sandstorm in the Mediterranean Sea, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Wednesday. A thick sandstorm cloaked the Middle East on Wednesday, clouding skies across the region. In Israel, travel was disrupted for thousands of people when domestic flights to the resort town of Eilat were canceled because of the weather, as the haze shrouded parts of Israel. Sebastian Scheiner/AP

Breeder Siegfried Marth rounds up a gaggle of geese in a pasture in Strem in Austria’s Burgenland province, Wednesday. Marth is raising some 700 geese organically for the traditional ‘Martin Goose’ (Martini Gansl) dinner in celebration of St. Martin each year. The feast of St. Martin of Tours (also called ‘Martini’) marks the time when new wines are tasted, cattle are butchered and geese are at their prime. This feast is celebrated in German-speaking Europe on November 11 usually with a roast goose. Heinz-Peter Bader/Reuters

Market Closes for November 4^th, 2015

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	17867.58	-50.57   -0.28%
S&P 500	2102.32	-7.47   -0.35%
NASDAQ	5142.480	-2.646   -0.05%
TSX	13661.82	-48.49
		-0.35%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	18926.91	+243.67
		+1.30%
HANG SENG	23053.57	+485.14
		+2.15%
SENSEX	26552.92	-37.67
		-0.14%
FTSE 100	6412.88	+29.27
		+0.46%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	1.632	1.615
CND. 30 Year Bond	2.362	2.354
U.S.    10 Year Bond	2.2250	2.2123
U.S. 30 Year Bond	2.9895	2.9960

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.76030	0.76543
US $	1.31528	1.30645
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.42908	0.69975
US $	1.08652	0.92037

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1114.70	1123.10
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	46.32	47.90

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Kate Garber

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks slipped after two days of gains, as a rally in energy producers stalled and Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. resumed its decline.

     The pullback in equities comes amid a slide in global shares sparked by speculation the Federal Reserve is poised to raise rates this year. Data today indicated that Canada’s imports fell for the first time in five months, narrowing the nation’s merchandise trade deficit for September, confirming that the world’s 11th largest economy is finding its footing after lower oil prices shocked the economy in the first half of the year.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 48.49 points, or 0.4 percent, to 13,661.82 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The Canadian benchmark equity gauge climbed 1.7 percent in October for its best performance since April, though it trailed gains among 24 developed markets.

     Energy producers in the index fell 0.5 percent after a two- day rally added 3.3 percent, with crude in the U.S. tumbling 3.3 percent to settle at $46.32 a barrel. Valeant lost 5.1 percent after being named as the focus of a probe in the U.S. Congress.

     Information technology stocks led advances Wednesday, as CGI Group Inc. jumped 4.3 percent after an analyst upgrade. Pharmaceutical company ProMetic Life Sciences Inc. led the index with a 9.5 percent gain. Miner First Quantum Minerals Ltd. jumped 3.8 percent for a fourth straight day of gains.

     The trade data was tempered by an announcement from the Petroleum Services Association of Canada on Tuesday that Canadian oil companies will reduce drilling activities next year as crude oil prices struggle around $50 a barrel. Canada’s energy sector is a key component of its economy.

US

By Joseph Ciolli

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks retreated from a three-month high, after data on payrolls and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen lifted bets that the central bank is closer to raising interest rates.

     Yellen’s comment that December remains a “live possibility” for a rate increase put the brakes on a rally that had carried the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to within 1 percent of its record. Earnings news also weighed on sentiment as disappointing results from Time Warner Inc. and 21st Century Fox Inc. sent media companies to their steepest decline since August. Energy shares fell for the first time in six sessions. Facebook Inc. rose in late trading following its earnings report after markets closed.

     The S&P 500 slipped 0.4 percent to 2,102.47 at 4 p.m. in New York, after yesterday reaching the highest level since July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 51.18 points, or 0.3 percent, to 17,866.97. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.2 percent. About 7.3 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, in line with the three-month average.

     “We’ve come back a long way since the end of September, but we’re not going to go straight back to a record,” said Thomas Garcia, head of equity trading at Thornburg Investment Management Inc. in Santa Fe, New Mexico. “Investors are waiting to get more data points this week to assess a potential rate hike in December.”

     Fed Chair Yellen, speaking before the House Financial Services Committee, said an improving economy has set the stage for a December interest-rate increase if economic reports continue to assure policy makers that inflation will accelerate over time. No decision has yet been made on the timing of a rate increase, she cautioned.

     Following Yellen’s remarks, Fed Bank of New York President William Dudley said at press briefing he “completely” agrees with Yellen that December is “a live possibility” for liftoff on rates. Vice Chair Stanley Fischer is scheduled to speak tonight. Traders now price in a 58 percent chance the central bank will increase rates at its December meeting, up from 50 percent yesterday and 34 percent last week before its October gathering.

     As policy makers look for more progress in the labor market, a report today showed companies added 182,000 workers to payrolls in October, signaling steady improvement. Separate data showed the U.S. trade gap shrank in September to a seven-month low, while, according to another gauge, service producers unexpectedly expanded in October at the second-fastest pace in a decade.

     The ADP jobs report today is a precursor to Friday’s government data, in which economists forecast the economy added 182,000 jobs with an estimated 169,000 added to private payrolls. The unemployment rate is expected to slip to 5 percent from 5.1 percent in September.

     Some 24 members of the S&P 500 are scheduled to report earnings Thursday, including Celgene Corp., Walt Disney Co. and Kraft Heinz Co. With 80 percent of the benchmark’s companies now in the books this season, about 74 percent have beaten earnings estimates, while only 45 percent have topped sales forecasts. Analysts estimate profits dropped 3.9 percent in the third quarter, up from predictions for a 6.1 percent decline a week ago.

     Facebook rose 1.8 percent at 4:35 p.m., as it notched another quarter of revenue that beat estimates after stepping up its mobile-advertising efforts. Profit also exceeded analysts forecasts.

     Wednesday’s retreat for the S&P 500 was the first in three days, and follows a 13 percent climb from the bottom of an August selloff that was sparked by China’s surprise currency devaluation. Energy and commodity producers, two of the biggest sufferers in the third-quarter selloff, have paced the rebound.

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index rose 6.7 percent Wednesday to 15.51, up for the fourth time in five sessions and reversing an earlier 4 percent decline. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX posted its biggest monthly drop ever in October.

     Eight of the S&P 500’s 10 main groups fell, with energy shares the biggest decliners. Consumer discretionary and raw- material companies lost 0.7 percent. Utilities and technology shares were the session’s only gainers.

     Energy companies in the benchmark fell 1 percent amid a 3.3 percent drop in the price of crude oil. It was the resource’s biggest decline in three weeks after government data showed that U.S. inventories climbed.

     Chesapeake Energy Corp. lost 2 percent, paring an earlier 8.6 percent slide, after saying a $5.4 billion writedown in the value of oil and natural gas fields wiped out third-quarter profits, and more charges are coming because the company sees no sign of a rebound in energy prices. Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. lost at least 1 percent.

     Time Warner dropped as much as 10 percent after its 2016 earnings forecast fell short of analysts’ estimates, dragging down other big media companies. Walt Disney Co. dropped 2 percent, while Viacom Inc. lost 6.6 percent. Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox, which posted lower-than-estimated quarterly revenue, fell 5.2 percent.

     Cerner Corp. dropped 6.8 percent, the most among health- care companies and its biggest drop since August 2011, after the company reported earnings that fell short of analyst estimates. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. slid 2.4 percent, even after its earnings report came in better than forecast. Pfizer Inc. and UnitedHealth Group Inc. lost at least 1.5 percent to pace declines in the group.                       

     Internet companies were among the session’s best performers, led by gains of more than 2.5 percent in Amazon.com Inc. and Netflix Inc., with Amazon rising to an all-time high. Facebook Inc. rose 1.4 percent before its earnings report, and Google parent Alphabet Inc. added 0.9 percent to a record. The Nasdaq Internet Index climbed 0.7 percent, also to an all-time high.

     Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. rallied 8.3 percent, the most in three months, after the seller of luxury handbags and clothing posted second-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates as new retail locations boosted sales.

     Range Resources Corp. jumped 10 percent, the best performer in the S&P 500 and the company’s strongest gain in more than four years, after announcing plans to slash its debt by almost a quarter through the sale of Virginia natural gas wells.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

We have at the present moment everybody claiming the right of conscience

without going through any discipline whatsoever

that here is so much untruth being delivered to a bewildered world.

Truth is not to be found by anybody who has not got a sense of humility.

If you would swim on the bosom of this ocean of Truth

you reduce yourself to a zero.

Mahatma Gandhi

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Imagination is the highest kite one can fly.

                    -Lauren Bacall, 1924-2014

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On November 3^rd, 1874, Francis Kilvert wrote in his Diary:

I went into Bowood Park by the Studey Gate and turned sharp to the left down a drive that brought me soon into the very heart and splendour of the beeches.  As the sun shone through the roof of beech boughs overhead the very air seemed gold and scarlet and green and crimson in the deep places of the wood and the red leaves shone brilliant standing out against the splendid blue of the sky.  A crowd of wood pigeons rose from the green and misty azure hollows of the plantation and flapped swiftly down the glades, the blue light glancing off their clapping wings.  I went by the house down to the lakeside and crossed the water by the hatches above the cascade.  From the other side of the water the lake shone as blue as the sky and beyond it rose from the water’s edge the grand bank of sloping woods glowing with colours, scarlet, gold, orange and crimson and dark green.  Two men were fishing on the further shore of an arm of the lake and across the water came the hoarse belling of a buck while a coot fluttered skimming along the surface of the lake with a loud cry and rippling splash.

  –Robert Francis Kilvert (3 December 1840 – 23 September 1879), always known as Francis, or Frank, was an English clergyman remembered for his diaries reflecting rural life in the 1870s, which were published over fifty years after his death.

Bowood Woodland Gardens were named  “Garden of the Year for 2014.”

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The Northern Lights, or Aurora Borealis, appear over Ludington State Park at about 2:40 a.m. on Tuesday in Ludington, Mich. Joel Bissell/MLive.com/AP

People take pictures during the opening ceremony Tuesday of Rome’s Trevi Fountain after it was restored. Italian fashion house Fendi is one of the luxury companies that stepped in to prop up Italy’s crumbling monuments as public funding for their upkeep dwindled. Alessandro Bianchi/Reuters

Market Closes for November 3^rd, 2015

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	17918.15	+89.39   +0.50%
S&P 500	2110.01	+5.96   +0.28%
NASDAQ	5145.125	+17.980   +0.35%
TSX	13715.56	+92.55
		+0.68%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	18683.24	-399.86
		-2.10%
HANG SENG	22568.43	+198.39
		+0.89%
SENSEX	26590.59	+31.44
		+0.12%
FTSE 100	6383.61	+21.81
		+0.34%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	1.615	1.578
CND. 30 Year Bond	2.354	2.328
U.S.    10 Year Bond	2.2123	2.1799
U.S. 30 Year Bond	2.9960	2.9509

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.76543	0.76350
US $	1.30645	1.30975
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.43205	0.69830
US $	1.09614	0.91230

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1123.10	1134.00
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	47.90	46.14

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose a second day, extending last month’s rally, with energy companies advancing as oil climbed to a three-week high and as fertilizer makers gained.

     Cenovus Energy Inc. and Crescent Point Energy Corp. paced an increase among energy stocks, rallying at least 5.5 percent. West Texas Intermediate oil futures added 3.8 percent in New York on speculation U.S. refineries increased crude demand for a third week and on supply risks from Brazil to Libya.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 87.30 points, or 0.6 percent, to 13,710.31 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The Canadian benchmark equity gauge climbed 1.7 percent in October, the best since April. It was nevertheless the worst performance among 24 developed-nation markets in that time, as a gauge of global equities capped its best month in four years.

     Canadian energy stocks jumped 2.3 percent, to a two-week high, the most among 10 industries in the S&P/TSX. An Energy Information Administration report Wednesday is expected to show crude stockpiles rose by the smallest amount in six weeks while gasoline supplies fell.

     Also, Libya’s Tripoli-based National Oil Corp. declared force majeure due to a “deteriorated security situation,” allowing it to suspend deliveries on crude shipments. In Brazil, oil workers are on strike in the Campos Basin, as workers demand Petroleo Brasileiro SA reverse spending cuts and halt an asset sale.

     Fertilizer producers Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. and Agrium Inc. increased at least 2 percent after U.S. producer Mosaic Co., the largest maker of potash, told investors it will continue to manage supply to stabilize prices and that inventory levels are falling in North America. Most of the new potash supply planned by the industry is still years away from reaching the market, Mosaic Chief Executive Officer Joc O’Rourke said during a Tuesday conference call.

     Consumer staples added 1.7 percent, led by a 3.8 percent climb by Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc., the most in two months, after RBC Capital Markets raised its rating on the shares to the equivalent of a buy.

     TransCanada Corp. rose 0.4 percent after requesting to pause a U.S. review of its long-delayed Keystone XL oil pipeline. The Calgary-based company asked Secretary of State John Kerry in a letter Monday to suspend assessment of the $8- billion project while awaiting results of a separate review in Nebraska.

US

By Joseph Ciolli and Kate Garber

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks extended a rally, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reaching a three-month high, as beaten-down commodity producers continued to pace the recovery from a third-quarter rout.

     Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. gained more than 1.8 percent as crude oil climbed to a three-week high. The energy group has rebounded 22 percent from an August low. Copper producer Freeport-McMoRan Inc. increased 5 percent today, while raw-material companies in the benchmark index have surged nearly 18 percent in the last five weeks. Gains have come as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates pinned near zero and other central banks signaled their willingness to boost stimulus.

     The S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent to 2,109.79 at 4 p.m. in New York, to close 1 percent below its all-time high set in May. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 89.39 points, or 0.5 percent, to 17,918.15 after yesterday erasing its loss for the year. The Nasdaq 100 Index, the first major U.S. stock gauge to retake a multiyear high established earlier in 2015, climbed 0.3 percent to a record for the first time since the dot-com bubble.

     “We’re back to where we were before that downturn took place, with reasonable earnings, modest growth and low interest rates,” said Bill Schultz, who oversees $1.2 billion as chief investment officer at McQueen, Ball & Associates Inc. in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. “That’s a backdrop that’s allowing upward momentum to re-enter the market. All of the fears built into the market in August and September haven’t come to fruition.”

     The S&P 500 has rallied 13 percent since bottoming amid an August selloff that sent the benchmark into its first correction in four years. Fading concern that China’s slowdown will spread, optimism for further stimulus from central banks overseas and better-than-expected U.S. corporate earnings have all have a hand in propelling the recovery.

     As the Fed boosted prospects of an interest-rate increase last month, investors continue to look to data to gauge whether the world’s largest economy can withstand higher borrowing costs. A report today showed factory orders slipped more than expected in September, while the prior month’s decline was steeper than previously reported. That comes a day after separate data showed manufacturing activity remained stuck in neutral in October.

     Traders are pricing in a 50 percent chance of liftoff at the Fed’s December meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and New York Fed’s William Dudley are all scheduled to deliver remarks on Wednesday.

     Investors will also look to earnings for a read on the health of the economy. Time Warner Inc., Allergan Plc and Facebook Inc. are among more than 100 S&P 500 companies releasing results this week. Of those that have reported this season, about 74 percent exceeded profit projections, while 56 percent missed sales forecasts. Analysts now estimate earnings dropped 3.9 percent in the third quarter, up from predictions for a 6.1 percent decline a week earlier.

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index rose 2.8 percent Tuesday to 14.54, up for the third time in four sessions and reversing an earlier 2.4 percent decline. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX posted its biggest monthly drop ever in October. About 7.5 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges today, in line with the three-month average.

     Energy companies led gains among the S&P 500’s 10 main groups for a third session as oil rallied for the fourth time in five days. Shares of consumer staples and phone companies declined the most.

     “When you see energy and cyclicals continue to rally like this it’s because they’re under-owned sectors,” said Michael Antonelli, an institutional equity sales trader at Robert W. Baird & Co. “They’re the sectors that were left for dead. When you get these pain-trade rallies like we’re seeing right now, those are the sectors that people go to because they’re under- owned.”

     Visa Inc., Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. increased more than 1.1 percent to help send technology companies in the benchmark index to a 15-year high. The sector is up about 19 percent from an August low, with the rebound boosted last month by stronger-than-expected profits at Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet Inc.

     Consumer discretionary shares reached a record, with Wynn Resorts Ltd. up 2.9 percent, and L Brands Inc. rising 3 percent to an all-time high as the owner of the Victoria’s Secret lingerie brand posted stronger-than-expected preliminary results.

     Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. and Consol Energy Inc. increased more than 4.8 percent, with both extending their two- day climb to at least 18 percent. The energy group has kicked off November with a 5 percent rally, reaching the highest level since July 17.

     Mosaic Co. gained 5.9 percent, its strongest advance in four years, to lead raw-materials higher. The fertilizer maker posted a better-than-estimated quarterly profit, while it also trimmed its full-year outlook on capital expenditures. Alcoa Inc. and Monsanto Co. rose more than 2.2 percent.                         

     King Digital Entertainment Plc jumped 15 percent to its highest in more than a year after the maker of the Candy Crush game agreed to a $5.9 billion takeover from Activision Blizzard Inc. Activision advanced 3.6 percent to an all-time high. Mobile-game maker Zynga Inc. climbed 2.5 percent.

     Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. lost 6.8 percent, the most in four years, to drag on consumer staples. The world’s largest corn processor reported third-quarter earnings that missed analysts’ estimates as ethanol margins shrank and the stronger dollar curbed U.S. exports of the grain. Kellogg Co. slumped 3.6 percent as third-quarter revenue trailed estimates after sales of breakfast foods slumped and currency fluctuations ate into revenue.

     American International Group Inc. lost 4.4 percent, its biggest drop in two months, after reporting a third-quarter loss and lower-than-expected operating income. Chief Executive Officer Peter Hancock also dismissed activist investor Carl Icahn’s proposal to split the company into three insurers.

     Martin Marietta Materials Inc. slumped 8.5 percent, the most since 2008. The largest U.S. producer of crushed stone reported third-quarter profit and sales that missed analysts’ estimates on a sluggish nonresidential market.

     Fidelity National Information Services Inc. tumbled 12 percent, the worst performance in the S&P 500. The payment services provider fell the most in 13 years after third-quarter revenue missed expectations while earnings were in line.
 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

When you abandon every desire that rises up within you,

and when you become content with things as they are, then you experience inner peace.

When your mind is untroubled by misfortune, when you desire no pleasures,

when your emotions are tranquil, and when you are free from fear and anger,

then you experience inner calm.  When you are free from all attachments,

when you are indifferent to success and failure,

then you experience inner serenity.

When you can withdraw your senses from pleasures of the senses,

just as a tortoise withdraws its limbs,

then you experience inner wisdom.

The Bhagavad Gita

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Your attitude, not your aptitude, will determine your altitude.

                                                   -Zig Ziglar, 1926-2012

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Today is:
All Soul’s Day today; Christian religions.
Day of the Dead (Dia de los Muertos), Mexico.

A day to remember the dead and celebrate their lives.

November (Latin “nine”).  The ninth month on the ancient Roman Calendar when the year began in March.  The old Dutch name was Slaghtmaand, “slaughter month,” the time when the beasts were slain and salted down for winter use.  The Anglo-Saxon name was similar as Blotmonath, literally “blood month.”   Another Saxon mane was Windmonath, “wind month”, when fishermen beached their boats and stopped fishing until the next spring.  The equivalent in the French Revolutionary calendar was Brumaire, “mist month,” corresponding to the period from October 23^rd-November 21^st.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A musician plays his violin next to a depiction of La Santa Muerte (Saint Death) at a shrine during Day of the Dead celebrations in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Monday. The saint is often depicted as a skeletal ‘grim reaper’ and followers leave offerings of tequila, rum, beer, cigarettes, cash, flowers and candy at altars adorned with rosaries and candles. Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters

Indian Christians pay tribute at the graves of their loved ones on All Souls Day in Kolkata, India, Monday. Friends and families gather in cemeteries to offer prayers and to decorate graves with candles and flowers. Bikas Das/AP

The sun sets behind the Houses of Parliament in London Monday. Toby Melville/Reuters

Market Closes for November 2^nd, 2015

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	17828.76	+165.22   +0.94%
S&P 500	2103.58	+24.22   +1.16%
NASDAQ	5127.145	+73.396   +1.45%
TSX	13620.30	+91.13
		+0.67%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	18683.24	-399.86
		-2.10%
HANG SENG	22370.04	-270.00
		-1.19%
SENSEX	26559.15	-97.68
		-0.37%
FTSE 100	6361.80	+0.71
		+0.01%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	1.578	1.543
CND. 30 Year Bond	2.328	2.306
U.S.    10 Year Bond	2.1799	2.1439
U.S. 30 Year Bond	2.9509	2.9262

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.76350	0.76516
US $	1.30975	1.30691
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.44275	0.69312
US $	1.10155	0.90781

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1134.00	1148.60
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	46.14	46.59

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose, after posting the best gain in six months in October, as Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. rebounded from its worst-ever monthly loss amid intense scrutiny over its business practices.

     Valeant rallied 9.1 percent, the most in a month, after stock commentary site Citron Research said it won’t release new allegations against the drugmaker. Penn West Petroleum Ltd. and Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc. rallied to lead commodities producers higher as factory data in Germany, Italy and the U.S. topped estimates, overshadowing a third straight monthly contraction in Chinese manufacturing data.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 93.84 points, or 0.7 percent, to 13,623.01 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The Canadian benchmark equity gauge climbed 1.7 percent in October, the best since April. It was nevertheless the worst performance among 24 developed-nation markets in that time, as a gauge of global equities capped its best month in four years.

     Equities rose around the world again on Monday, with the MSCI All-Country World Index adding 0.5 percent. Manufacturing in the euro area unexpectedly accelerated in October, to 52.3 from 52.0 in September. American manufacturing was little- changed at 50.1, just ahead of the median forecast of 50 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

     China’s official purchasing managers index remained at 49.8 in October, compared with an estimate of 50, the line between expansion and contraction. China is Canada’s largest trading partner after the U.S. and one of the world’s most important resource consumers.

     Canadian energy and raw-materials stocks climbed at least 1.1 percent despite a decline in commodities prices. The two industries, still among the worst-performing in the S&P/TSX for the year, rallied at least 7 percent in October to lead the index.

     Gold producers climbed 7.8 percent last month, the most since January, as weakening global growth, including in Europe and China, dimmed speculation of a rate increase. The probability that U.S. policy makers will increase borrowing costs has since risen to 50 percent according to futures data after officials signaled last week a December increase remains on the table.

     Valeant rebounded from a record 49 percent plunge in October. On Oct. 21, Citron accused Valeant of an Enron-like strategy of recording fake sales using an affiliated pharmacy, Philidor Rx Services, to store inventory and record those transactions as sales. Valeant shares plummeted 28 percent in one day. The company has denied the allegation.

US

By Joseph Ciolli

     (Bloomberg) — Another step in the recovery from this summer’s equity meltdown occurred Monday as a broad advance in U.S. stocks pushed the Nasdaq 100 Index above its July high and toward record territory.

     The index’s 1.2 percent advance extended its rally from the Aug. 25 trough to 17 percent, making it the first major index of U.S. stocks to retake a multiyear high established earlier in 2015. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index remains more than 1 percent from its May 21 peak of 2,130.82, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 2.6 percent from its last record.

     Concerns ranging from weakening Chinese growth to stress in credit markets and stagnating corporate earnings pushed the Nasdaq 100 down 14 percent over a one-month stretch starting July 20. The nine-week rebound came as the Federal Reserve held off on interest rate increases and companies including Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. posted sales and profits that beat analyst estimates.

     Gains in the index have come in its biggest computer and software companies. Since the Aug. 25 low, Amazon is up 35 percent, Microsoft has added 32 percent and Facebook has jumped 24 percent. The gauge’s biggest member, Apple Inc. with a 12.9 percent weighting, has advanced 17 percent after tumbling 21 percent in the summer rout.

     “Today some of the biggest losers of the selloff have finally joined the party and are leading the way,” said Randy Warren, who manages more than $100 million at Exton, Pennsylvania-based Warren Financial Service & Associates Inc. “The selloff that we saw was a normal, healthy pullback for the market that didn’t seem to scare too many people off and ultimately served as a buying opportunity.”

     The S&P 500 added 1.2 percent to 2,103.94 at 4 p.m. in New York, the highest level since Aug. 10 — the day before China’s surprise devaluation of its currency sparked turmoil on global financial markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 165.22 points, or 0.9 percent, to 17,828.76. The Nasdaq Composite Index rallied 1.5 percent.

     While the broader Nasdaq index eclipsed its dot-com peak in April, its 100-stock sister fell just short. It closed Monday less than a point below its record on March 27, 2000. For 2015, the Nasdaq 100 has jumped 11 percent, extending its gain from the end of 2011 to 107 percent.

     U.S. stocks joined a global rally in stocks Monday, as signs of softer manufacturing in China failed, for one day at least, to quell demand from equity investors who instead looked for signs of strength elsewhere.

     “The global data today shows stable economic conditions, which is improving sentiment,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist in Philadelphia at Janney Capital Management LLC, which oversees about $68 billion. “M&A activity is always a good litmus test for the sentiment of companies and usually speaks well to market conditions, and we’ve seen some big deals lately.”

     All 10 main S&P 500 groups rose, with energy and health- care stocks climbing at least 2 percent. Energy companies surged 11 percent in October to snap their longest streak of monthly losses ever. Consol Energy Inc. jumped 17 percent while Chevron Corp. gained 4.5 percent to a July high. 

     Deals boosted health-care shares. Dyax Corp. soared 28 percent after Shire Plc agreed to buy the drugmaker for at least $5.9 billion. Pfizer Inc. climbed 3.8 percent as people with knowledge of the matter said the company is making progress in talks to buy Allergan Plc.

     A reading today showed U.S. manufacturing remained stuck in neutral in October as factories struggled with dwindling overseas demand and well-stocked customers at home. Official data earlier showed Chinese factory output shrank for a third month, contrasting with a report signaling a pickup in euro-area manufacturing.

     The October payrolls report due on Friday will begin to loom larger on investor sentiment as the week progresses. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project the economy added 182,000 jobs last month, up from Septembers 142,000, with the unemployment rate slipping to 5 percent from 5.1 percent a month earlier.

     Equities rallied the most since 2011 in October and are riding their longest streak of weekly gains since December, bolstered in part by central banks as the Fed kept rates pinned near zero, while signs of weak growth prompted the European Central Bank last month to hint at potential extra measures. In Asia, China unexpectedly cut its lending rate and Bank of Japan maintained record stimulus.

     The S&P 500 is up 13 percent from an August low as equities recover from a third-quarter swoon triggered by concern that weakening growth in China would spread. An earnings season that hasn’t been as bad as analysts initially predicted also helped the benchmark erase a loss for the year.

     More than 100 companies in the S&P 500 are scheduled to announce earnings this week. Of those that have released results this season, about 75 percent exceeded profit projections, while 55 percent missed sales forecasts. Analysts estimate earnings dropped 3.9 percent in the third quarter, up from predictions for a 6.1 percent decline a week earlier.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

Hold the reins of your mind, as you would hold the reins of a restive horse.

Svetasvatara Upanishad.

As ever,
 

Carolann

 

Either you run the day or the day runs you.

                              -Jim Rohn, 1930-2009

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

The Poem:

FIANUIS
 -by Kathleen Jamie
Well, friend, we’re here again,
        sauntering the last half-mile to the land’s frayed end
to find what’s laid on for us, strewn across the turf-
gull feathers, bleached shells,
                 a whole bull seal, bone-dry,
knackered from the rut
(we knock on his leathern head, but no-one’s home).

Change, change – that’s what the terns scream
                        down at their seaward rocks
fleet clouds and salt kiss –
everything else is provisional,
                        us and all our works.
I guess that’s why we like it here.
                  Listen a brief lull,
                          a rock pipit’s seed-small notes.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Autumn leaves are at their peak on a sunny day in the western Austrian city of Innsbruck Friday. Dominic Ebenbichler/Reuters

 

Students from the Brainshire Science School wear costumes as they participate in a Halloween parade in Paranaque city, metro Manila, Philippines, Friday. Romeo Ranoco/Reuters

A woman, her face covered in white, paints the tombstones at a cemetery in Casabermeja, southern Spain, Friday. Catholics will mark All Saints’ Day on Nov. 1 by visiting cemeteries and graves of relatives and friends. Jon Nazca/Reuters

Market Closes for October 30^th, 2015

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	17663.54	-92.26   -0.52%
S&P 500	2085.72	-3.69   -0.18%
NASDAQ	5053.750	-20.524   -0.40%
TSX	13559.61	-232.27
		-1.68%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	19083.10	+147.39
		+0.78%
HANG SENG	22640.04	-179.90
		-0.79%
SENSEX	26656.83	-181.31
		-0.68%
FTSE 100	6361.09	-34.71
		-0.54%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	1.543	1.550
CND. 30 Year Bond	2.306	2.320
U.S.    10 Year Bond	2.1439	2.1743
U.S. 30 Year Bond	2.9262	2.9621

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.76516	0.75770
US $	1.30691	1.31978
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.43670	0.69604
US $	1.09931	0.90966

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1148.60	1179.60
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	46.59	45.94

Market Commentary:

Regardless of current economic condition, it’s always best to remember that the stock market is a barometer and not a thermometer. –Yale Hirsch, 1923-

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks dropped the most in four weeks, paring the best monthly gain since April, as the nation’s largest lenders slumped and Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. capped its worst-ever monthly performance.

     Health-care and financial services stocks led Canadian equities lower, as Valeant extended its October rout to 48 percent amid intense scrutiny over its business practices. The stock had been one of the best performers in Canada through the first half of the year and briefly became the biggest company in the country by market capitalization.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 262.71 points, or 1.9 percent, to 13,529.17 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, the biggest drop since Sept. 28. The decline trimmed the Canadian benchmark’s October advance to 1.7 percent, the worst performance among 24 developed-nation markets in that time, as a gauge of global equities capped its best month in four years.

     Valeant’s been the primary drag on the market. The embattled drugmaker sank 18 percent after it said Friday it will terminate its relationship with Philidor Rx Services, the closely-associated pharmacy that Valeant has used to distribute its products. The decision came after Bloomberg News reported Philidor altered doctors’ prescriptions to wring more reimbursements from U.S. health insurers.

     Energy and materials producers rallied more than 6.9 percent in October to lead gains after weighing most on the benchmark index for the first nine months of the year. Financial stocks pared a rally for the month to a 3.4 percent gain.

     Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank sank at least 2.3 percent to lead lenders lower. A gauge of U.S. banks slumped 1.9 percent, the most in a month, as lenders from Wells Fargo & Co. to JPMorgan Chase & Co. face a $120 billion total shortfall of long-term debt under a Federal Reserve proposal aimed at ensuring their failure wouldn’t hurt the broader financial system.

     Data Friday showed Canada’s economy grew for a third month in August, increasing 0.1 percent led by manufacturing. Oil and gas extraction and retailing measures also rose. The third quarter may be a high point in a recovery from falling commodity prices, which the Bank of Canada said last week will take around the middle of 2017 to complete.

     “After the lows earlier in the year and highs of the June and July rebound, it was back to reality for the Canadian economy in August,” said Andrew Grantham, an economist at CIBC World Markets in a note to clients. “Given the lingering effects of the oil price shock in some areas of the country, that reality appears to be one of very modest growth.”

     Canada’s central bank has cut interest rates twice this year, to 0.5 percent, to spur growth in a flagging economy amid oil’s price collapse. Governor Stephen Poloz cut his growth forecasts for the next two years on Oct. 21 as weak investment by energy companies will restrain growth.

     Bombardier Inc. yesterday reported a $4.9 billion loss in part due to writedowns related to its oft-delayed CSeries jetliner. The aerospace company’s quarterly loss was the third- largest in Canada since the third quarter of 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Bombardier rebounded 3.7 percent.

US

By Joseph Ciolli

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks faded late in October’s final session, paring the strongest monthly gain since 2011 as weaker- than-estimated quarterly results weighed on financial and consumer staples shares.

     The pace of the October advance leveled off since stocks on Wednesday pushed to their highest since August, capping a robust rally in a more stoic fashion. Energy and raw-material companies — two of the strongest groups since September — added to their gains in the month’s final session, with Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. rising after posting better-than-expected earnings.

     The S&P 500 declined 0.5 percent to 2,079.36 at 4 p.m. in New York, with the gauge up 8.3 percent this month. Stocks are also extended to five their longest streak of weekly advances this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 92.26 points, or 0.5 percent, to 17,663.54. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.4 percent.

     “Recent Fed comments have been a little more hawkish, and we didn’t get further easing from the Bank of Japan,” said Matt Maley, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co LLC in New York. “It’s not like the market is falling out of bed, but when you combine that with how much we’ve been up lately, it gives us an excuse to pull back. We just had this huge rally — pulling back is normal and healthy.”

     Analysts project profits for S&P 500 members dropped 3.9 percent in the third quarter, improving from an estimated 6.1 percent decline a week ago, following better-than-forecast results from Chevron and Exxon Mobil. With about two-thirds of companies in the index finished with reporting this season, 75 percent have beaten profit projections, while only 44 percent have exceeded sales estimates.

     Genworth Financial Inc. lost 10 percent, the biggest drop in the S&P 500, after its profit missed analysts’ estimates. CVS Health Corp. sank as its outlook disappointed. LinkedIn Corp. jumped 11 percent as its revenue forecast topped projections, and AbbVie Inc. surged 10 percent after its earnings beat expectations. First Solar Inc., the biggest U.S. solar manufacturer, climbed 12 percent, the most in almost three months after third-quarter profit almost quadrupled.

     The S&P 500 has rebounded more than 11 percent from its August low, spurred by gains in energy and technology shares — the same groups that helped drag the index to its worst quarter since 2011. Both posted their strongest monthly increase in four years amid easing concern that weakness in China will spread.

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index rose 3.2 percent Friday to 15.07. The measure of market turbulence know as the VIX saw its steepest monthly retreat ever, down 39 percent, amid equities’ strong rebound from the weak third quarter.

     Central banks have dominated markets this month, with a weak U.S. jobs report jolting equities out of a summer swoon and sinking the dollar on speculation the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates pinned near zero into 2016. Persistent signs of weak global growth prompted the European Central Bank to hint at potential extra stimulus, while China unexpectedly cut its lending rate.

     Fed officials said this week that U.S. growth was moderate, and they will evaluate progress in the labor market and inflation readings when considering whether to raise rates at their next meeting in December. Traders have now shifted their bets on the likelihood of a December increase — pricing in a 50 percent chance of liftoff by year end, compared with as low as 30 percent last week.

     An earlier report today showed household spending rose less than forecast in September, with the smallest gain since January. Separate data showed wages and salaries rose in the third quarter at a faster pace, while another report showed consumer sentiment increased less than forecast in October as Americans viewed buying conditions as less favorable than they did earlier in the month.

     Five of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries fell today, with financial and consumer staples companies leading declines. Energy and utilities shares rose the most, with the energy group capping an 11 percent gain for the month, the most since October 2011.

     Financial companies in the benchmark gauge declined for the fourth time in five days. Genworth Financial, the insurer battered by losses on long-term care coverage, fell 10 percent after Chief Executive Officer Tom McInerney said there are limited options to simplify the company in the short term. KeyCorp led banks lower, falling 7.2 percent after agreeing to buy First Niagara Financial Group Inc. in a $4.1 billion cash- and-stock deal.

     The KBW Bank Index fell 1.9 percent, the most in a month. The largest U.S. banks would face a $120 billion total shortfall of long-term debt under a Federal Reserve proposal aimed at ensuring their failure wouldn’t hurt the broader financial system. Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. sank more than 1.7 percent.

     Consumer staples slid 1.1 percent. CVS, the biggest provider of prescription drugs in the U.S., fell 4.8 percent as 2016 guidance came in below consensus expectations. Colgate- Palmolive Co. lost 4.2 percent, the most since August, after reporting a quarterly profit that fell short of forecasts.

     The S&P 500 Technology Index slipped as Electronic Arts Inc. lost 5.3 percent, its biggest retreat in two months, even after the publisher of the Madden NFL video games delivered quarterly earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. Facebook Inc. declined 2.8 percent, the most in four weeks.

     Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. tumbled 16 percent to its lowest since July 2013. The embattled drug maker failed to comfort investors after cutting ties with Philidor Rx Services, the closely-associated pharmacy Valeant has used to distribute its products and that’s under scrutiny for its business practices. Billionaire William Ackman also didn’t convince investors after spending four hours on a call Friday defending his outsize bet on Valeant.

     Geo Group Inc., a provider of correction, detention and community re-entry services, slipped 1.3 percent, paring a slide of as much as 4.2 percent, after a tweet from Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton saying “we need to end private prisons.” Corrections Corp. of America lost as much as 6.2 percent before closing down 2.6 percent.

     Exxon Mobil and Chevron paced an advance among energy companies, with each rising more than 0.6 percent. Exxon’s profit beat estimates as soaring margins on processing oil into fuels blunted the impact of collapsing crude markets.

     Chevron was also boosted by its refining business, and said it’s cutting about 10 percent of its workforce while scaling back its long-term production target. Phillips 66, the largest U.S. refiner by market value, also exceeded analysts’ profit views, sending its shares up 3 percent to an all-time high.

     Expedia Inc. surged 7.3 percent to an all-time high, leading gains in consumer discretionary shares. The online travel site said it would realize more cost savings than originally projected from its $1.3 billion acquisition of Orbitz Worldwide Inc., and it also beat quarterly earnings estimates. TripAdvisor Inc. and Priceline Group Inc. added at least 2 percent.

     Utility companies gained as 10-year U.S. Treasury yields slipped 1.4 percent. Lower bond yields help the group’s dividend payout look more attractive to investors. The increase ended a five-day streak of declines for the index of power stocks, the longest since June.

 

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

If a man does not of his own free will put himself last among his creatures,

there is no salvation for him.

Mahatma Gandhi

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

A person’s greatest virtue is his ability to correct his mistakes

and continually make a new person of himself.

                                            -Wang Yangming, 1472-1529

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

From a recent Wall Street Journal article:

Far in Space, a Glance at How Earth May End
‘It reinforces the idea that we are in a much more hostile environment than we sometimes imagine,’ an astrophysicist says
Black holes have long been a source of intrigue for astronomers and science fiction writers, but what happens when a star wanders too close to one?

By 
GAUTAM NAIK

Astronomers have made the first direct discovery of a planet being ripped apart by the tremendous forces unleashed by a dying star, a possible glimpse into how the Earth will end its days.

The cosmic drama is occurring 570 light-years from Earth in the constellation Virgo. There, a sun-like star is reaching the end of its life and, in the process, annihilating its solar system. Specifically, the researchers discovered a small planet being vaporized by the star’s searing heat and ripped apart by its gravity.

“The planet is in its death throes,” said Andrew Vanderburg, Ph.D student at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and lead author of the study. “Every second, it’s losing up to 10 million kilograms,” or 22 million pounds of material.

The discoveries were made using the planet-hunting space telescope Kepler, operated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, as well as ground-based telescopes. Details were published Thursday in the journal Nature.

When a sun-like star runs out of the hydrogen that fuels its nuclear fusion reaction, it swells into an object that is 100-200 times its original size. This “red giant” eventually collapses into a much smaller body known as a white dwarf—an object that possesses intense gravity.

 

In this artist’s conception, a dwarf planet disintegrates as it orbits a white dwarf star. Astronomers have discovered signs that a sun-like star has turned into a white dwarf, an object of such intense gravity that it can destroy its solar system. PHOTO: MARK A. GARLICK/HARVARD-SMITHSONIAN CENTER FOR ASTROPHYSICS

The white dwarf star discovered by Mr. Vanderburg and his team, for example, is only a little bigger than earth. A teaspoon’s worth of it has a mass of nearly 15 tons.

Our sun will go through a similar process about five billion years from now, scientists say. Because of its nearness to the sun, there’s a chance that Earth will be engulfed by the red giant that forms.

Even if Earth survives the sun’s red giant phase, other forces will claim it. The subsequent white dwarf that is created could destabilize the orbits of planets—including Earth’s—and cause many of them to fall toward the white dwarf and disintegrate. That appears to be the scenario unfolding in Virgo.

“It’s a glimpse into the future of Earth,” said Carole Mundell, head of astrophysics at the University of Bath, England, who wasn’t involved in the Nature study. “It reinforces the idea that we are in a much more hostile environment than we sometimes imagine.”

Kepler searches for planets by looking for a telltale dip in brightness that occurs when an orbiting body crosses a star. In the summer of 2014, Kepler took measurements from 20,000 stars. When Mr. Vanderburg and his team studied the data, one signal jumped out at them: the transit of a body across a white dwarf that was dimming the star by 40%.

It was the first planetary object ever seen transiting a white dwarf. The team estimated that the planet was a mere 520,000 miles from the white dwarf and orbiting it every 4.5 hours. They also discovered other bodies in a similar orbit.

Significantly, the planet is surrounded by a vast cloud of dust and debris. This is the material being blasted off its surface by gravity and the heat of the nearby white dwarf. It is evidence that the planet is disintegrating.

Scientists have speculated that when this happens, dust from the crumbling planet will settle on the surface of the host star. Mr. Vanderburg and his colleagues now plan to analyze that dust and from it infer what the dying planet is made of.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A home-made airship, made by Shi Songbo, lifts off during a test flight in Ningling county of Shangqiu, Henan province, China. The 10-meter-long, 23-meter-high, two-seated air ship, which cost Shi 300,000 yuan ($47,187 USD) and took four months to make, performed eight successful trial flights.China Daily/Reuters

Mea’ling, a sphinx cat, peers out at the crowd adorned in her costume at the Fantasy Fest Pet Masquerade in Key West, Fla., Wednesday. Owned by Diana Benton, Mea’ling was one of more than 50 entries in the competition for animals and their owners. Rob O’Neal/Florida Keys News Bureau/Reuters

Market Closes for October 29^th, 2015

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	17755.80	-23.72   -0.13%
S&P 500	2089.71	-0.64   -0.03%
NASDAQ	5074.273	-21.417   -0.42%
TSX	13788.68	-74.48
		-0.54%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	18935.71	+32.69
		+0.17%
HANG SENG	22819.94	-136.63
		-0.60%
SENSEX	26838.14	-201.62
		-0.75%
FTSE 100	6395.80	-42.00
		-0.65%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	1.550	1.483
CND. 30 Year Bond	2.320	2.272
U.S.    10 Year Bond	2.1743	2.1009
U.S. 30 Year Bond	2.9621	2.8788

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.75930	0.75770
US $	1.31700	1.31978
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.44590	0.69161
US $	1.09787	0.91085

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1148.60	1179.60
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	45.93	45.94

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks slumped, paring the best monthly gain since February, as Bombardier Inc. plunged after receiving a rescue from the Quebec government of as much as $1.3 billion and resource producers sank on the prospect of higher interest rates in America.

     While the Canadian benchmark has jumped 3.6 percent in October, that’s the second-worst performance among 24 developed- nation markets in that time, as a gauge of global equities heads for its best month in four years. The rally stalled Thursday after the Federal Reserve signaled it’s still prepared to raise interest rates this year if warranted. That bolstered the U.S. currency and sent commodities tumbling.

     In Canada, Bombardier led declines as the jet maker’s tardy and over-budget CSeries program will get an investment from Quebec in exchange for a 49.5 percent stake and as much as 200 million Bombardier shares, the Montreal-based company said Thursday. The company’s $4.9 billion net loss is the third-worst by a Canadian company since the third quarter of 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 71.28 points, or 0.5 percent, to 13,791.88 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The index’s October gain would be its best month since February. It’s down 5.7 percent in 2015.

     Bombardier, the second worst-performing stock in the S&P/TSX this year with a 68 percent decline, dropped 15 percent for the biggest decline since Aug. 24. Materials producers fell 3.5 percent as a group as metals from copper to gold retreated.

     Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. lost 3 percent to lead raw-materials producers lower. The world’s largest fertilizer producer by market value cut its full-year profit forecast and shuttering reducing production in response to weaker demand from emerging markets.

     Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. tumbled 3.7 percent after CVS Health Corp. said it would remove Valeant partner Philidor RX Services from its network of pharmacies after an audit of its practices.

     Barrick Gold Corp. added 1.6 percent to a two-week high after reporting better-than-estimated profit after the market close yesterday. Barrick’s lower costs and higher production helped to mitigate the impact of weak metals prices. Some 150 companies are scheduled to report earnings next week.

     Gold stocks have rallied 10 percent in October, on pace for the best performance since January as the prospect of an interest-rate increase from the Fed dimmed during the month amid slowing global economic growth and mixed U.S. data. Gold becomes a less attractive investment when rates rise as the metal doesn’t pay interest.

     Revived prospects for an increase in borrowing costs has stalled the best rally in global developed and developing markets since 2011. The odds the Fed, which left interest rates unchanged yesterday, will move on rates in December has now jumped to 50 percent from around 32 percent a week ago, based on futures prices.

US

By Joseph Ciolli and Oliver Renick

     (Bloomberg) — A rally in U.S. stocks stalled Thursday, after equities reached a two-month high, as investors weighed corporate earnings and prospects for higher interest rates this year.

     Technology shares fell, led by F5 Networks Inc. after its profit and sales outlook disappointed. NXP Semiconductors NV tumbled the most in five years after predicting a drop in sales, and Intel Corp. slid 2 percent. Delphi Automotive Plc sank 7.1 percent after cutting its revenue and earnings forecast. Allergan Plc. climbed 6 percent after confirming it’s in merger talks with Pfizer Inc., which fell 1.9 percent.

     The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was little changed at 2,089.41 at 4 p.m. in New York, near the highest level since Aug. 18. The gauge is up 8.8 percent in October, poised for its best month in four years, boosted by gains in commodity producers and technology shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23.72 points, or 0.1 percent, to 17,755.80. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.4 percent, while the Russell 2000 Index slipped 1.1 percent following its best one-day gain this year.

     “It’s merely a re-evaluation of how people should be positioned given the Fed commentary yesterday,” said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities Inc. in Los Angeles. “The door was left open for a rate hike in December, which is likely to lead to a much higher dollar. That won’t be a good read for anyone doing business internationally.”

     Fed officials yesterday forecast moderate growth, and dropped a reference to global risks in a policy statement following a two-day meeting. They also referred to their “next meeting” on Dec. 15-16 as they discussed the timing for raising interest rates. Traders are now pricing in a 50 percent chance of liftoff in December, compared with as low as 30 percent last week. Prior to the Fed meeting, March was the first month showing at least even odds for a rate increase.

     Data continues to be the Fed’s guide toward an eventual rate boost, and a report today showed the economy expanded at a slower pace in the third quarter as companies took advantage of gains in consumer and business spending to reduce bloated stockpiles. A separate measure showed contract signings to purchase previously owned homes unexpectedly fell in September by the most since the end of 2013, indicating the residential real estate market is cooling from its recent brisk pace.                        

     The S&P 500 has rebounded as much as 12 percent from an August low. The October rally has been spurred by advances in energy and raw-material shares, the same groups that helped drag the index to its worst quarter since 2011. Both are headed for their strongest monthly increase since 2011 amid easing concern that weakness in China will spread.

     “More people want to get into energy and get into the space, they just don’t know what the right time will be,” Adam Lustig, a managing director at Raymond James & Associates Inc. said by phone. “Not many think 2016 will be good for the space but they think 2017 will and we’re starting to see people initiate early.”

     Corporate earnings season remains an influence on investor sentiment, with a little less than half of the companies in the S&P 500 yet to report. Of those that have reported, 76 percent beat profit projections, while 56 percent missed sales estimates. Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and Colgate- Palmolive Co. are among 21 companies scheduled to release results on Friday.

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index rose 2 percent Thursday to 14.61. The measure of market turbulence know as the VIX is on course for its steepest monthly retreat ever amid equities’ strong rebound from the weak third quarter. About 7  billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 5 percent below the three-month average.

     Five of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries declined today, with utilities, financial and technology shares down the most. Health-care advanced for a fifth day while energy companies climbed for a second straight session. Chipmakers dragged down the tech group, with the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index posting its biggest loss in almost two months. NXP Semiconductors lost nearly 20 percent after forecasting an unexpected decline in fourth-quarter revenue as customers pulled back on orders amid a slowing global economy and higher inventories of unsold chips. Avago Technologies Ltd. slid 5.5 percent.

     Earnings results took a toll on auto-parts suppliers. Delphi Automotive fell the most in four years after cutting it annual profit and sales forecasts to below analysts’ estimates as China’s vehicle market slows. The company got about 23 percent of sales last year from the Asia-Pacific region, up from 16 percent in 2010. BorgWarner Inc. lost 8.7 percent after reducing the high end of this year’s profit outlook.

     Financial shares in the benchmark retreated after rallying Wednesday the most in seven weeks. Invesco Ltd. dropped 2.5 percent after the owner of the PowerShares funds posted a profit that missed analysts’ estimates, and the firm had $6.3 billion in redemptions. Within the KBW Bank Index, New York Community Bancorp tumbled 12 percent, the most in six years, after agreeing to purchase Astoria Financial Corp. in a deal valued at about $2 billion. Astoria sank 7.7 percent.

     An S&P index of homebuilders had its worst drop in a month after the surprise slide in pending sales of previously owned homes. Lennar Corp. and D.R. Horton Inc. slumped more than 3.7 percent. Meritage Homes Corp. fell 9.7 percent as its fourth- quarter outlook disappointed.

     Allergan helped lead health-care higher amid its “preliminary friendly discussions” to merge with Pfizer. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. added 5.1 percent after posting a third- quarter loss that was smaller than analysts’ estimates as sales of its new combination drug for cystic fibrosis grew faster than expected.

     The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index erased an early climb, halting its longest rally in almost three months. Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc. added 7.2 percent to a two-month high after raising its 2015 profit outlook and reinstating a stock buyback program.

     Energy companies advanced as they head toward an October increase of more than 10 percent, the biggest monthly rally since 2011. The climb since September has been bolstered by Newfield Exploration Co., Apache Corp. and Transocean Ltd., with each up at least 18 percent. Thursday’s gains were paced by Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and Valero Energy Corp., rising more than 3.1 percent.                      

     Among other companies moving on corporate news, Hanesbrands Inc. jumped 15 percent, its biggest since 2009. The clothing maker posted third-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates and raising its earnings forecast for the year, helped by increasing sales of activewear.

     Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. plunged 17 percent, the in eight years, after sales growth missed analysts’ estimates and the chicken-wing chain cut its profit forecast.

     GoPro Inc. plummeted 15 percent to the lowest since it debuted last year, after the maker of action cameras reported profit and sales that trailed estimates. The company said the smaller Hero4 Session model introduced in July didn’t sell as well as it expected in the third quarter and its September price cut hurt revenue.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

You can live with few clothes or with one meal a day, but that is not simplicity.

So be simple, don’t live in a complicated way, contradictory and so on, just be simple in inwardly.

Krishnamurti

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

All life is an experiment.  The more experiments you make the better.

                                            -Ralph Waldo Emerson, 1803-1882

 

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Carolann is out of the office, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The Gateway Arch is lit with golden-colored lights just before sunrise Wednesday in St. Louis. The city is celebrating the moment when the final piece of the 630-foot-tall structure was put into place on Oct. 28, 1965. David Carson/St. Louis Post-Dispatch/AP

Artistes from Cirque du Soleil perform during a media preview of the production ‘Totem’ Tuesday in Singapore, where they will be performing until the end of the year. Wong Maye-E/AP

Market Closes for October 28^th, 2015

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	17779.52	+198.09   +1.13%
S&P 500	2090.35	+24.46   +1.18%
NASDAQ	5095.691	+65.546   +1.30%
TSX	13863.16	+163.56
		+1.19%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	18903.02	+125.98
		+0.67%
HANG SENG	22956.57	-186.16
		-0.80%
SENSEX	27039.76	-213.68
		-0.78%
FTSE 100	6437.80	+72.53
		+1.14%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	1.483	1.444
CND. 30 Year Bond	2.272	2.247
U.S.    10 Year Bond	2.1009	2.0564
U.S. 30 Year Bond	2.8788	2.8678

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.75770	0.76003
US $	1.31978	1.31573
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.44088	0.69402
US $	1.09176	0.91595

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1179.60	1166.40
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	45.94	43.98

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose, rebounding from the biggest two-day decline since September, as financial shares rallied and oil producers climbed after crude prices jumped the most in eight weeks.

     Crude surged as data showed inventories in the U.S. declined, fueling speculation that a supply glut may ease. Energy shares have been the worst performers in Canada’s resource-heavy stock market this year. Equities briefly pared gains Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s signal that interest rates may rise as soon as December sent gold miners lower.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 163.56 points, or 1.2 percent, to 13,863.16 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge fell 1.8 percent over the previous two days. The index is up 4.2 percent in October, on pace for the biggest monthly increase in two years. 

     The Federal Open Market Committee sees a “moderate” pace of growth for the U.S. economy, leaving themselves the option to tighten policy at their next meeting in December. The statement sent U.S. Treasuries lower, boosted the dollar and led to a rally in bank shares that lifted American equities to a two- month high.

     Financial services companies in Canada contributed the second-most to gains on Wednesday, rising 0.9 percent as a group. Energy shares had the biggest hand in the advance, with a 2.5 percent rally.

     Crescent Point Energy Corp. added 3.5 percent and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. rose 3.7 percent. U.S. crude climbed the most in eight weeks, rebounding from a two-month low in New York after industry data showed declines in crude stockpiles at the nation’s biggest storage hub.

     Canadian industrial stocks rallied 1.8 percent. Canadian National Railway Co. climbed 2.9 percent. Canadian National reported third-quarter earnings after the market close Tuesday, including revenue of C$3.22 billion, ahead of estimates for C$3.15 billion.

     Bombardier Inc. soared 11 percent after a Montreal newspaper reported Quebec’s government will provide financial assistance to the embattled maker of the CSeries jetliner.

     Goldcorp Inc. lost 3.3 percent and Eldorado Gold Corp. tumbled 4.2 percent as gold producers sank 1.9 percent, reversing earlier gains of as much as 3.8 percent. The S&P/TSX Gold Index pared its advance in October to 15 percent, still on track for its best performance since January. 

     The prospect of an interest-rate increase from the Fed dimmed during the month amid slowing global economic growth and mixed U.S. data. Gold becomes a less attractive investment when rates rise as the metal doesn’t pay interest.

US

By Oliver Renick

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks soared to a two-month high as commodity producers rallied and the Federal Reserve’s signal that it may raise interest rates as soon as December sent financial shares surging.

     Equities had advanced into the afternoon Fed statement, boosted by Apple Inc. following its better-than-expected results and by energy shares as oil surged the most in eight weeks. The indication that policy makers are still considering a rate increase this year briefly undercut the gains before banks jumped on the prospect of stronger profits.

     The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.2 percent to 2,090.35 at 4 p.m. in New York, its highest since Aug. 18. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 198.09 points, or 1.1 percent, to 17,779.52. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.3 percent, while the Russell 2000 Index rallied 2.9 percent, its biggest gain this year. About 8.5 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 15 percent above the three-month average.

     “The impression the Fed left is that December is still on the table, they didn’t close the door to that,” said Russ Koesterich, a global chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money manager. “You’re going to see some change of positions here, the main takeaway is the Fed is managing their optionality and if we get a few good economic data points, then December is possible.”

     Bank of America Corp. surged 5.4 percent and the KBW Bank Index climbed the most in two months after the Fed’s comments. Energy shares advanced as crude added 6.3 percent, while Apple gained 4.1 percent, the most in eight weeks, after its results and forecast for record holiday sales.

     The economy is still expanding at a “moderate” pace, Fed officials said as they left interest rates unchanged, and they will consider tightening policy at their next meeting in December without making a commitment to act this year. Even with a slower pace of recent job gains, labor market indicators show slack has diminished since early this year, the Federal Open Market Committee said.

     The Fed removed a line from September’s statement saying that global economic and financial developments “may restrain economic activity somewhat,” saying only that the central bank is monitoring the international situation.

     Policy makers last month opted to not raise rates after China’s slowdown and its August currency devaluation added uncertainty to the global economic picture, sparking turmoil in financial markets. Markets have calmed this month, and a rate cut by China’s central bank last week helped the S&P 500 erase a loss for the year.

     The main U.S. equity gauge is poised for its best monthly gain in four years after rebounding almost 12 percent from an August low. Energy, raw-material and industrial shares have helped propel the October rally, the same groups that weighed heavily during the benchmark’s worst quarter since 2011 amid concern that weakness in China would spread. The index closed Wednesday less than 2 percent below its May record.

     Uneven data, including weaker-than-forecast new-home sales and consumer confidence reports this week, have held down expectations for higher borrowing costs this year. Following the Fed statement, traders priced in a 54 percent odds on a January rate increase, up from about 43 percent earlier today. The central bank has held the federal funds target rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.

     Investors are also looking to corporate results to help measure the economy’s strength. Analysts project profits for S&P 500 members dropped 6.1 percent in the third quarter. Of those that have released results this season, about 75 percent have exceeded profit projections, while 55 percent missed sales estimates. Altria Group Inc., MasterCard Inc. and Starbucks Corp. are among 49 companies in the benchmark scheduled to report on Thursday.

     Apple’s gain today buoyed equities after the company said sales in the current quarter will top last year’s record. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook attributed the forecast to customers upgrading to the latest iPhone models, converts switching over from Android handsets and continued growth in China.

     Level 3 Communications Inc. rallied 9.3 percent, the most in more than a year to lead phone companies higher after the company’s quarterly profit topped analysts’ estimates. CenturyLink Inc. increased 1.7 percent.

     Akamai Technologies Inc. fell 17 percent, the steepest slide since 2011 after its fourth-quarter revenue outlook was short of analysts’ forecasts. At least three analysts subsequently cut their ratings on the shares. Twitter Inc. fell 1.5 percent, trimming an earlier 11 percent slide, after predicting weaker-than-estimated sales growth. In the U.S., the world’s largest advertising market, Twitter’s user count remained flat at 66 million last quarter.

     Hershey Co. lost 6.4 percent, the most in seven years and weighed on the S&P 500’s consumer staples group. Despite posting a third-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates, the candy maker’s full-year outlook was below forecasts.

     “There’s still a strong dollar weighing on sales for multinationals, and there’s still some feeling of cost cutting and share buybacks boosting the EPS over the last year,” said Jasper Lawler, London-based market analyst at CMC Markets Plc. “There’s only so much longer you can do that and after a while you have to roll on organic profitability which maybe isn’t there.”

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index declined 7.1 percent Wednesday to 14.33. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX is on pace for its steepest monthly drop ever, after a record climb in August.

     Energy companies in the S&P 500 surged 2.2 percent, while financial companies added 2.4 percent, the strongest gain among the benchmark’s 10 main groups. Bank of America posted its biggest increase since December 2012, while Comerica Inc. climbed 5.1 percent, also the most since 2012.

     Oil jumped to lead energy higher as increasing U.S. refinery activity signaled the end of seasonal maintenance and higher crude demand. Chevron Corp. climbed 2.4 percent to halt a three-day slide, while Occidental Petroleum Corp. and Apache Corp. added at least 4.3 percent.

     Among other companies moving on corporate news, American International Group Inc. rose 4.9 percent, its strongest advance in more than two years after Carl Icahn disclosed a stake in AIG and said it should split into three companies.

     Northrop Grumman Corp. increased 5.5 percent to a record after winning a Pentagon contract valued at as much as $80 billion to build the Air Force’s Long-Range Strike Bomber. Boeing Co. declined 0.4 percent, trimming an earlier 2.2 percent drop, after losing out in its bid for the bomber contract.

     Cabela’s Inc. soared 17 percent, the most in five years. Activist investor Elliott Associates disclosed an 11 percent stake in the company and said it may push for a shake-up or leveraged buyout.

     Diamond Foods Inc. rose 8.9 percent to its highest since 2012. Snyder’s-Lance Inc. agreed to buy the snack maker for about $1.27 billion to add Kettle potato chips and Emerald almonds to its offerings.

     Rite-Aid Corp. retreated 7 percent, after surging 43 percent Tuesday before an official announcement that Walgreen Boots Alliance Inc. will buy the drugstore chain in a deal valued at $17.2 billion, including debt. Walgreen lost 11 percent, the most since August 2014.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

 “Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking.” Marcus Aurelius

 

 

As ever,

 

Karen

 

“The good life is one inspired by love and guided by knowledge.”

Bertrand Russell

 

 

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Carolann is out of the office, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A woman stands in a field of fireweed, or Kochia scoparia, on a sunny autumn day at Hitachi Seaside Park in Hitachi, north of Tokyo, Monday. Fireweed is a grass bush that takes on a bright red color in autumn. Thomas Peter/Reuters

A white Bengal tiger cub plays in her enclosure at a private zoo in Felsolajos, Hungary, Monday. The zoo’s two female cubs were born in May.Janos Bugany/MTI/AP

Market Closes for October 26^th, 2015

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	17623.05	-23.65   -0.13%
S&P 500	2071.16	-3.99   -0.19%
NASDAQ	5034.703	+2.839   +0.06%
TSX	13789.79	-163.87
		-1.17%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	18947.12	+121.82
		+0.65%
HANG SENG	23116.25	-35.69
		-0.15%
SENSEX	27361.96	-108.85
		-0.40%
FTSE 100	6417.02	-27.06
		-0.42%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	1.444	1.506
CND. 30 Year Bond	2.247	2.303
U.S.    10 Year Bond	2.0564	2.0866
U.S. 30 Year Bond	2.8678	2.9008

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.76003	0.75942
US $	1.31573	1.31680
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.45447	0.68754
US $	1.10550	0.90457

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1166.40	1161.25
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	43.98	43.65

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell the most in a month, retreating from a two-week high, as oil producers declined and Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. resumed losses.

     Energy shares lost 2.4 percent as a group to lead Canadian equities lower as U.S. crude inventories have risen to the highest levels for the season in 85 years. West Texas Intermediate futures for December delivery traded for 92 cents less than January, the widest spread — also known as contango – – since May.

     The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a gauge tracking a basket of commodities prices from oil to copper, slipped 0.6 percent for a fourth day of losses. Prices are on pace for a fourth straight month of losses.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 162.76 points, or 1.2 percent, to 13,790.90 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The gauge has rallied 3.6 percent in October, on pace for the biggest monthly increase since February. 

     Commodities producers retreated, led by declines among oil stocks. Crescent Point Energy Corp. dropped 1.8 percent and Encana Corp. retreated 6.9 percent. WTI crude was down 62 cents to $43.98 a barrel in New York, failing to sustain a rally earlier this month to $50 a barrel amid surging U.S. inventories.

     Valeant lost 6.4 percent. The stock fell as much as 12 percent before briefly erasing those declines earlier in the day as Chief Executive Officer Michael Pearson shot back at critics in a conference call Monday morning, saying the drugmaker had behaved properly in its relationship with specialty pharmacy Philidor RX Services.

     “Our accounting with respect to the company’s Philidor arrangements is fully compliant with the law,” Pearson said in a statement released ahead of the call. “However, other issues have been raised publicly about Philidor’s business practices, and it is appropriate that they be fully reviewed.”

     Shares of Laval, Quebec-based Valeant plummeted 32 percent last week, the most since 1993, after short-seller Citron Research said Valeant is using Philidor to store inventory and record those transactions as sales. Valeant has denied the accusations, saying that sales are recorded only when the drugs are sent to patients. Philidor accounted for about 6 percent of Valeant’s revenue for the nine months ended Sept. 30, Valeant said in a filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

     Smaller peer Concordia Healthcare Corp. fell 5.4 percent today. Concordia and Valeant were the two best-performing stocks in the S&P/TSX through the first half of the year, fueled by aggressive growth-by-acquisition strategies.

US

By Oliver Renick

     (Bloomberg) — A rally in U.S. stocks stalled Monday, as investors assessed recent gains before the latest batch of earnings and a Federal Reserve meeting, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipping from a nine-week high.

     Technology and energy, two industries that have driven much of the benchmark’s gains as it heads toward its best month in four years, retreated today. Apple Inc. lost 3.2 percent to weigh on tech, as supplier Dialog Semiconductor Plc’s sales and outlook missed analysts’ estimates. Apple is Dialog’s biggest customer. Chevron Corp. fell 2.7 percent with crude oil sinking to a two-month low.

     The S&P 500 declined 0.2 percent to 2,071.03 at 4 p.m. in New York, after last week erasing its losses for the year.

     “Nobody is expecting the Fed to move, but everyone’s going to be looking at the language on whether they say they’re still on target for this year so the markets might be muted until then,” said Thomas Garcia, head of equity trading at Thornburg Investment Management Inc. in Santa Fe, New Mexico, said by phone. “There are some pretty big earnings this week so people will be watching what companies say about third quarter but also what they say about guidance.”

     Pfizer Inc., Ford Motor Co. and Apple Inc. are among more than 160 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings this week. Analysts project profits at the index’s members dropped 6.1 percent in the third quarter, with energy and materials companies showing the steepest decline.

     Two months after the first correction since 2011 broke a yearlong calm in U.S. equities, the S&P 500 is on the march again, bringing its gain from its August low to 11 percent, and within 3 percent of its all-time high set in May. Microsoft Corp., Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. surged on Friday, adding more than $80 billion in combined market value on strong earnings reports.

     The main U.S. stock gauge remains on the path toward its best month since 2011, led by commodities producers, industrials and technology shares, the very groups that fueled the August selloff amid worries that a slowdown in China would hamper a global economic expansion. Since then, concerns have ebbed as central banks signal their willingness to take action to head off risks to growth.

     Equities got an added boost Friday after China cut interest rates for the sixth time in a year. That came a day after the European Central Bank suggested it will bolster stimulus if needed. Investors will look to the Fed’s meeting this week for indications of the trajectory of U.S. interest rates. The probability of a rate increase this month is now only 6 percent, and about 36 percent for December. March is the first month for which traders price in at least even odds of a boost.

     As policy makers prepare to debate a rate move, a report today showed purchases of new homes slumped in September to a 10-month low and the prior two months were revised down. The larger-than-expected decline disrupted a trend of steady improvement this year in the industry

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

As ever,

 

Karen

 

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Tomorrow, October 24^th is United Nations Charter Day.  From The Book of Holidays Around the World:

Before World War II ended, people all over the world believed that there should be an international peacekeeping organization that could prevent future wars.  In October 1943, the foreign ministers of Great Britain, the Soviet Union, and the United States met in Moscow to discuss this goal.  In the next year other nations joined the deliberation, and on October 24, 1945, the United Nations was born.  One hundred and ninety-one nations now send representatives to the UN’s headquarters in New York City.

“…to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women an of nations large and small, and….to practice tolerance and live together in peace with one another as good neighbours..”

United Nations would be a good idea but the goal has proven still to be elusive.

Tomorrow is also FOOD DAY.  Check out the short documentary Food for Thought, Food for Life at foodforthoughtfilm.com. 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A visitor to Sydney’s 19th annual Sculptures by the Sea exhibition poses for a friend’s camera whilst standing on the cast concrete sculpture ‘Open’ by American artist Peter Lundberg, Friday. Sydney’s coastal walk between Bondi and Tamarama has been transformed into a temporary sculpture park featuring over 100 sculptures from Australian and international artists, billed as the largest free sculpture exhibition in the world. Jason Reed/Reuters

Singapore volunteers perform the ‘Human Net’ choreographed by Spanish performance troupe La Fura dels Baus, suspended over the Singapore River, during the opening of the Singapore River Festival on Friday. Edgar Su/Reuters

Market Closes for October 23^rd, 2015

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	17646.70	+157.54   +0.90%
S&P 500	2075.15	+22.64   +1.10%
NASDAQ	5031.863	+111.813   +2.27%
TSX	13953.66	+75.55
		+0.54%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	18825.30	+389.43
		+2.11%
HANG SENG	23151.94	+306.57
		+1.34%
SENSEX	27470.81	+183.15
		+0.67%
FTSE 100	6444.08	+67.80
		+1.06%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	1.506	1.454
CND. 30 Year Bond	2.303	2.262
U.S.    10 Year Bond	2.0866	2.0263
U.S. 30 Year Bond	2.9008	2.8608

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.75942	0.76368
US $	1.31680	1.30945
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.45068	0.68933
US $	1.10167	0.90772

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1161.25	1167.00
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	43.65	44.83

Market Commentary:

Canada

Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks joined a global equities rally sparked by optimism central-bank stimulus will jumpstart growth.

     The nation’s benchmark index rose to a two-week high, as Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. halted a four-day rout. Canada’s largest lenders contributed the most to gains, while materials producers also advanced.

     Central banks are reasserting dominance over the global financial markets, sparking demand for risk assets, as China’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rate a day after the European Central Bank signaled it will consider bolstering a bond-buying program before the end of the year. Canada’s central bank held rates steady this week.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 75.55 points, or 0.5 percent, to 13,953.66 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The gauge posted a 0.8 percent gain in the week. It’s extended an October rally to 4.9 percent, on pace for the biggest monthly increase since 2011. 

     China, Canada’s second-largest trading partner after the U.S., is determined to meet its 2015 growth target of about 7 percent in the face of deflationary pressures, overcapacity and tepid global demand. The ECB said it will increase its bond purchases to stimulate growth if needed.

     Materials producers in the Canadian benchmark advanced 2.4 percent as a group, after the Chinese stimulus fueled bets that demand for resources will increase. Energy shares slid with the price of crude capping the biggest weekly loss since August in New York.

     Health-care shares surged 5.8 percent to trim the group’s biggest weekly loss on record to 31 percent. Laval, Quebec-based drugmaker Valeant rebounded 6 percent, snapping a four-day slump that wiped out 36 percent amid intense investor scrutiny over its pricing practices and relationships with specialty pharmacies. Concordia Healthcare Corp. rallied 22 percent as the smaller drugmaker surged 43 percent in two days to erase a weekly loss.

     Valeant said Thursday it will hold a conference call on Oct. 26 to discuss the claims against the company. Quebec’s Autorite des Marches Financiers said in an e-mailed statement Thursday allegations about the company are “worrisome” and it is checking to see if they ran afoul of any regulations. 

US

By Anna-Louise Jackson

     (Bloomberg) — Central-bank stimulus and strong earnings from the largest technology companies combined to give U.S. stocks their fourth straight weekly gain and propel the Standard & Poor’s 500 toward its best month since 2011.

     The S&P 500 has jumped 11 percent from its summer low, with the surge in October led by commodities producers and technology shares, the very groups that fueled the August selloff. The gains put U.S. equities back in the black for the first time since the correction, and left the benchmark index just 2.6 percent from its all-time high.

     “Stocks are back,” said Robert Pavlik, who helps oversee $9.1 billion as chief market strategist at Boston Private Wealth. “We’re back on track as far as a cheap money, quantitative easing, risk-on trade is concerned.”

     The S&P 500 rallied 2.1 percent in the five days to 2,075.15, for a fourth weekly gain that is the longest streak of the year. The gauge closed at the highest since Aug. 19. The Nasdaq 100 Index surged 4.2 percent for its best week since July.

     Equities got a boost during the week from central banks. On Friday, the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates and banks’ reserve requirements to support a slowing economy. That announcement came a day after the European Central Bank signaled it will bolster stimulus if needed.

     Meanwhile, the earnings season suddenly came to life. More than 100 companies in the S&P 500 reported for the week, initially providing mixed messages until results from three tech giants late Thursday sparked a broad rally. Microsoft Corp., Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. added more than $80 billion in combined market value the next day as quarterly profit topped estimates. A group of tech stocks in the gauge surged 4.6 percent in the week to a 15-year high.

     The combination of earnings growth and central bank stimulus — two of the biggest supports for equities during the 6 and 1/2 year bull market — provided an accelerant to stocks in the midst of recovering from the first correction since 2011. All 10 of the major groups in the S&P 500 have rallied since Aug. 25, led by gains of more than 16 percent for technology and energy stocks.

     With the summer selloff fading away, volatility has also diminished. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index has tumbled more than 60 percent after spiking to the highest in almost four years during the S&P 500’s summer swoon. The volatility measure has been below 20 for 15 straight days. Prior to that, it traded above that level for 30 sessions, the longest such streak since January 2012.

     “There’s likely to be continued policy support from central banks around the world and the headwinds, particularly the slowdown in China’s growth, may be behind us. Investors can take some comfort in that,” said Brian Jacobsen, who helps oversee $250 billion as chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. “On top of that, earnings that came out, particularly from the Holy Trinity of Big Tech, were great. There were a lot of things that lined up nicely for us this week.”

     Not everything went smoothly during the week. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. took the market on a wild ride Wednesday, plunging as much as 40 percent after a stock- commentary site run by short seller Andrew Left questioned the company’s sales practices. Valeant called the accusations “erroneous” and denied the report. Other health-care companies took a battering, with Endo International Plc and Tenet Healthcare Corp. falling more than 16 percent for the week.

     And while the S&P is up 8.1 percent in October, on track for the best month since 2011, it has yet to recoup all of its losses from August, let alone reach its record from May. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks is 10 percent below its 2015 peak. 

     There’s the possibility of further choppiness, which means it’s probably not “onward and upward from here,” according to Leo Grohowski of BNY Mellon Wealth Management in New York, especially with the Federal Reserve still debating the timing for higher interest rates.

     “It’s been sort of a relief rally, rather than an indication of renewed optimism,” said Grohowski, who helps manage more than $183 billion in client assets as chief investment officer of BNY Mellon Wealth Management. “My growing concern is the equity market participants here in the U.S. are still too complacent around December and there being a less than a 50-50 chance of a rate liftoff.”

     The Fed is scheduled to meet in the coming week and the probability of a boost to interest rates before January is 36 percent. Mixed economic data and volatile financial markets kept the Fed from tightening last month.

     U.S. economic reports were generally positive this week. Robust housing reports suggested U.S. growth may be getting support from the real-estate market. Meanwhile, jobless claims fell near the lowest level in four decades, though Americans’ expectations for the economy deteriorated to a 13-month low in October.

     On the whole, it was a “rewarding week” as the market returned to positive territory for the year, said Grohowski.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone!

 

Be magnificent!

The first condition of humaneness is a little humility and a little diffidence

about the correctness of one’s conduct and a little receptiveness.

Mahatma Gandhi

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Make the best use of what is in your power, and take the rest as it happens.

                                                                       -Epicetus, 55 AD-135

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

During the Cuban Missile Crisis on this day in 1962, President John F. Kennedy announced, in a televised speech, that U.S. spy planes had discovered Soviet missile bases in Cuba that housed medium-range missiles capable of striking a number of major U.S. cities, including Washington.

From A Countrywoman’s Notes, October:

Some people thrive best living in a community in  close association with others, playing, as it were, a part in an orchestra or as a member of a team.  Others are soloists and shine that way, though most of us live a family life.  The pattern is followed through in nature, too, with birds and animals.  Many species change their habits according to the season; often solitary or living in pairs in spring and summer, they form flocks before setting out on their migratory journeys.  Our swallows have gone but the red-wings and fieldfares, both related to the thrushes, are common winter visitors.  They are easy to recognize as they swirl in loose flocks across country lanes, often landing on the hedgerows to eat the hawthorn and other berries.  Watch them an you will see them take off into the fields to find grubs and worms.  They will stay in their flocks until breeding time comes round and they have moved north.  Our resident starlings are always rather gregarious but at this time of the year they will gather in thousands.  I sometimes wonder how the highest branches of our lime trees can bear their weight.  I do not usually like their habits but I do appreciate them when they descend on my lawn and remove the wireworms; better still when they do this in neighboring fields, where the wireworms devour the roots of grain and do much damage.  The starlings then are welcome in large numbers, though their noise can be deafening.  The finches form flocks in autumn and a charm of goldfinches feeding on  a patch of thistles is a lovely sight… -Rosemary Verey.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Late autumn colors in vineyards mark a change in the season in Soultz in the Alsace region of eastern France, Thursday. Jacky Naegelen/Reuters

French Republican guards take place ahead of Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita visit to the Paris City Hall as part of his two-day state visit to France, in Paris, Thursday. Etienne Laurent/AP

Market Closes for October 22^nd, 2015

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	17489.16	+320.55   +1.87%
S&P 500	2052.51	+33.57   +1.66%
NASDAQ	4920.051	+79.934   +1.65%
TSX	13878.11	+173.92
		+1.27%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	18435.87	-118.41
		-0.64%
HANG SENG	22845.37	-143.85
		-0.63%
SENSEX	27287.66	-19.17
		-0.07%
FTSE 100	6376.28	+27.86
		+0.44%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	1.454	1.458
CND. 30 Year Bond	2.262	2.265
U.S.    10 Year Bond	2.0263	2.0670
U.S. 30 Year Bond	2.8608	2.9127

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.76368	0.76122
US $	1.30945	1.31369
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.45400	0.68776
US $	1.11038	0.90059

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1167.00	1167.10
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	44.83	44.65

Market Commentary:

Canada

Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rebounded from the biggest drop in three weeks as better-than-forecast earnings and a jump in retail sales offset a continuing slide in Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.

     The nation’s equities joined a global rally in riskier assets sparked by a signal from the European Central Bank that it is prepared to support growth. U.S. shares surged 1.7 percent to bring their gain from a summer swoon toward 10 percent. Rogers Communications Inc. and Teck Resources Ltd. advanced at least 5.1 percent Thursday after posting third-quarter earnings ahead of analysts’ estimates.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 173.92 points, or 1.3 percent, to 13,878.11 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, rebounding from the biggest drop since Sept. 28 Wednesday. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge has risen 4.3 percent in October as it tries to recover from the worst quarter since 2011. 

     Data today showed Canadian retail sales rose faster than economists predicted in August, led by automobile and parts dealers. About 13 of 242 companies in the S&P/TSXhave reported earnings in the current period thus far, with more than 50 expected to disclose results through next week.

     Laval, Quebec-based drugmaker Valeant extended losses for a fourth day after Quebec’s Autorite des Marches Financiers said in an e-mailed statement allegations about the company are “worrisome” and it is checking to see if they ran afoul of any regulations. Valeant erased a fifth of its market value Wednesday after Citron Research published a report examining the drugmaker’s pricing practices. Smaller peer Concordia Healthcare Corp. rebounded from a May 2014 low Wednesday.

     Valeant slid 6.6 percent, recovering some losses in the final hours of trading. The stock’s decline for the week is on pace for a record 37 percent. Scrutiny of the company is intensifying after a Citron Research report Wednesday accused the company of inflating sales using the pharmacies. In the report, Citron, a stock commentary site published by short seller Andrew Left, claimed that Valeant had recorded fake sales to phony customers, using closely associated specialty pharmacies to help drive the business.

     Valeant called Citron’s accusations “erroneous” and denied the report. The company will hold an investor call Oct. 26 including Chief Executive Officer Michael Pearson and members of the board’s audit and risk committee, the company said.

     Valeant, briefly the largest stock in the S&P/TSX by market capitalization this year, along with Concordia had been the two best performers among Canadian equities after pursuing aggressive acquisition strategies in the first half of 2015.

     Valeant has since plummeted 58 percent from an Aug. 5 all- time high, amid increasing scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers over the industry’s pricing models for prescription drugs. Valeant has been the subject of subpoenas from attorneys’ offices in Manhattan and Massachusetts seeking additional information.

     The rise and rapid fall in the shares of Valeant is eerily familiar to Canadian investors still smarting from the legacy of past market stalwarts BlackBerry Ltd. and Nortel Networks Corp. Both companies had previously ascended to the global stage while dominating the Canadian market, only to crumble when problems exposed them to harsh investor scrutiny.

     BlackBerry, previously known as Research In Motion, has not recovered since losing its dominance in the smartphone market while Nortel filed for Bankruptcy protection in 2009.

     Rogers gained 5.2 percent, extending a two-year high, after Canada’s largest wireless operator added more customers than projected in the third quarter. Sales grew to C$3.38 billion, compared with projections for C$3.32 billion.

     Rogers also owns Major League Baseball’s Toronto Blue Jays, which snapped a 21-year playoff drought in October and are currently battling the Kansas City Royals in the American League Championship Series. The team’s recent success has driven the Jays’ value to about $1.5 billion, a 10-fold gain from when Rogers bought the team in 2000, according to new calculations from sports valuation experts.

US

By Anna-Louise Jackson and Joseph Ciolli

     (Bloomberg) — Back to flat. Almost.

     Two months after the first correction since 2011 broke a yearlong calm in U.S. equities, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is jumping again, climbing as much as 1.8 percent Thursday to bring its gain from its lowest close in August to 10 percent. The benchmark gauge for American equities now sits at a level last seen on Aug. 19 and is 7 points below its Dec. 31, 2014 closing price, making its performance year-to-date just about flat.

     Slicing it differently: U.S shares have climbed back into the trading range they tumbled out of in August during a six-day selloff that wiped out $2 trillion in market value. Half of the S&P 500’s 10 major groups now are trading above their Aug. 19 closing levels, with energy stocks and consumer staples leading. While few investors are ready to sound the all clear, some see signs the worst is behind them, citing the market’s ability to go up even as corporate earnings fall flat.

     “There’s no fear that we’re going into recession, and a huge slowdown doesn’t seem to be coming to fruition. Now we can look at a slow-growth yet positive-trending economy,” said Bill Schultz, who oversees $1.2 billion as chief investment officer at McQueen, Ball & Associates Inc. in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. “The question is now how much will earnings increase. The market is betting there’s a better chance of that now than in the past couple months.”

     The S&P 500 surged 1.7 percent to 2,052.51 at 4 p.m. in New York, sparked by a batch of better-than-estimated earnings from companies including McDonald’s Corp. and EBay Inc., bolstering optimism on the health of corporate America. Prospects that Europe will move to boost its economy provided a further lift as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers will investigate fresh stimulus measures.

     In addition to McDonald’s and EBay rising more than 8.1 percent, Dow Chemical Co. advanced 5.1 percent after its earnings topped forecasts, and Texas Instruments added 12 percent after better-than-estimated results.

     After the market closed, Google parent Alphabet Inc. reported better-than-projected earnings amid stronger ad sales and while keeping expenses under control. The shares rallied 8.5 percent in late trading. Amazon.com Inc. jumped 10 percent after hours as its quarterly sales topped analysts’ estimates, thanks to its growing cloud-computing division and a boost from its July Prime Day promotion.

     The rally is also an affirmation of sorts for Wall Street stock forecasters who clung to optimistic outlooks even as the S&P 500 slid more than 11 percent to 1,867.61 between Aug. 17 and Aug. 25. Getting to the median estimate of 21 strategists tracked by Bloomberg of 2,150 would’ve taken a 15 percent rally from August’s lows. Today it requires less than 5 percent.

     John Stoltzfus of Oppenheimer & Co. remained unchanged on his year-end price target of 2,311 during the selloff. He’s now the most bullish out of 21 people surveyed. RBC Capital Markets’ Jonathan Golub, whose forecast is 2,100, said in an interview today that his target now has some “upside” again.

     “It’s frankly happening more than I’d expected or hoped for and I may have not been bullish enough about the resiliency of this market,” Golub said by phone.

     The S&P 500 is on track for its fourth consecutive week of gains, the first time its done so since December 2014. Meanwhile, this month is setting up to be the market’s best October since 2011’s nearly 11 percent increase.

     Energy, technology and industrial stocks have led the post- selloff rally, with each group rising more than 12 percent since Aug. 25. Health-care is the only group of 10 that is lower now. The market has undergone a change in leadership, as the first seven months saw health-care and consumer discretionary stocks leading the charge with gains exceeding 11 percent, while energy sank 13 percent.

     The S&P 500 is rebounding from its worst quarter in four years after the index entered its a correction, with the rout sparked by China’s unexpected devaluation of the yuan on Aug. 11. At the time, concern mounted that the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy was worse than anticipated and would drag down global growth.

     Comments from the ECB’s Draghi are “definitely” supporting today’s gains, said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers LLC, which manages about $1 trillion in assets. “That’s what’s really driving this rally and today’s risk-on environment. Earnings expectations were very, very low and it’s been easy to beat those expectations and that’s also been contributing to this rally.”

     So powerful was the advance that stocks that fell on earnings news in early trading were surging by midday. Caterpillar Inc. lost as much as 2.7 percent after a premarket report showed sales fell the most in five years, only to erase the loss within the first 30 minutes of trading. The same was true for copper producer Freeport-McMoRan Inc., which also saw its earnings miss spur a 3.5 percent decline that was reversed within minutes of the market open.

     Meanwhile, volatility across global markets is dissipating after whipsawing stocks, bonds and commodities for two months. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Market Risk Index is at its lowest level since August, while the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index of U.S. equity turbulence recently posted the longest streak of daily declines since 2009. The gauge known as the VIX fell 13 percent Thursday to 14.45, the lowest since Aug. 18 and on track for the biggest monthly drop ever.                          

     Investors are looking to corporate America for clues on the strength of the economy. Of those companies that have reported earnings so far, 45 percent have topped sales estimates and 72 percent have beaten profit projections. Third-quarter earnings are projected to fall 6.7 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

     Mixed data in the U.S. and volatile financial markets kept the Federal Reserve from tightening last month and reduced expectations for an interest-rate increase this year. March is the first month for which traders are pricing in at least even odds of a liftoff. The probability of a boost before January is about 32 percent.

     A report today showed sales of previously owned homes rose in September to the second-highest level since February 2007, while separate data showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits hovers near the lowest in four decades.

 

Have  a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

What is the world?  It is the earth below and the sky above and the air in space that connects them.

What is light?  It is fire below and the sun above – and the lightning that connects them.

What is education?  It is the teacher above and the disciple below – and the wisdom that connects them.

Taittiriya Upanishad

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

I dream my painting, and then I paint my dream.

                       -Vincent Van Gogh,  1853-1890

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7