March 21, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Sweet spring, full of sweet days and roses,
A box where sweets compacted lie;
My music shows ye have your closes,
And all must die.     

                 –George Herbert, Virtue, 1633.

On March 21, 1965, more than 3,000 civil rights demonstrators led by the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. began their march from Selma to Montgomery, Ala.

1666 – Intendant Jean Talon starts New France census, Canada’s first

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Cuba’s President Raul Castro walks with President Barack Obama as they inspect the guard in Revolution Palace Monday in Havana, Cuba. Brushing past profound differences, Presidents Obama and Castro sat down for a historic meeting, offering critical clues about whether Obama’s sharp U-turn in policy will be fully reciprocated. Ramon Espinosa/AP

 


Siblings Leo (from l. to r.), Max, and Zoe Zavrachy, on vacation from Ireland, ride down a snow-covered hill on Boston Common during a snowstorm on the second day of spring in Boston Monday. Brian Snyder/Reu
ters

Market Closes for March 21st, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

17623.87 +21.57

 

+0.12%

 
S&P 500 2051.60 +2.02

 

+0.10%

 
NASDAQ 4808.871 +13.224

 

+0.28%

 
TSX 13561.09 +64.02

 

+0.47%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16724.81 -211.57

 

-1.25%
 
 
HANG

SENG

20684.15 +12.52
 
 
+0.06%
 
 
SENSEX 25285.37 +332.63
 
 
+1.33%
 
 
FTSE 100 6184.58 -5.06
 
 
-0.08%
 
 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.303 1.286
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

2.097 2.078
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.9155 1.8732
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.7192 2.6753
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.76355 0.76875

 

US

$

1.30967 1.30082
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.47225 0.67923

 

US

$

1.12414 0.88957

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1244.90 1252.10
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 39.91 39.44
 
 

Market Commentary:

The most important lesson in investing is humility. –Sir John Templeton, 1912-2008

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks advanced, rebounding from a loss on Friday, as shares of Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. jumped after saying Chief Executive Officer Michael Pearson will step down amid a shakeup of the embattled drugmaker’s board and management.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index climbed 0.5 percent to 13,561.09 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, rebounding from a loss last week. The Canadian benchmark equity gauge is still up 4.2 percent this year.

     Valeant added 8.5 percent, snapping a five-day slide last week that included a record 51 percent drop on March 15. Valeant said in a statement on Monday that Pearson will continue to serve as CEO until a successor is found. Meanwhile Bill Ackman, the billionaire investor whose Pershing Square Capital Management LP is one of Valeant’s biggest investors, will join the company board. The company also said it’s asked former Chief Financial Officer Howard Schiller, who replaced Pearson during a two-month medical leave, to tender his resignation due to “improper conduct” but has not yet done so.

     Briefly the largest company in Canada by market capitalization last year, Valeant has lost almost 90 percent of its value from an August peak after the company announced a weaker 2016 outlook, leading analysts to slash their price targets. It also remains under investigation by U.S. lawmakers and regulators over its business practices.

     The S&P/TSX has jumped about 15 percent after reaching a two-and-a-half year low in January, making it one of the best- performing developed markets in the world this year and posting returns ahead of the U.S., Germany and U.K. 

     The rebound has been led by an advance in resource stocks, including gold mining companies, energy and base metals producers as commodity prices stabilized amid speculation OPEC producers will freeze output and investors seeking havens flocking to gold. The S&P/TSX now trades at 21.8 times earnings, about 17 percent more expensive than the valuation of the U.S.

equity benchmark, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

     Bankers Petroleum Ltd. soared 54 percent, the most in more than a decade, after agreeing to sell itself to Geo-Jade Petroleum Corp. in a C$575 million deal. The all-cash offer, at C$2.20 a share, is almost double the company’s closing price of C$1.11 on Friday.

US

By Anna-Louise Jackson

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks edged higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average extending its longest winning streak in five months, while investors assessed a rally that turned equities positive for the year.

     Commodity producers slipped and banks were little changed after bolstering the rebound from the worst start to a year ever. Deal activity helped buoy shares as Valspar Corp. surged 23 percent after Sherwin-Williams Co. agreed to buy the company for about $9.3 billion. Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. rallied 4.5 percent after accepting an improved bid from Marriott International Inc. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. added 7.4 percent after a board and management shakeup.

     The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent to 2,051.60 at 4 p.m. in New York, the highest since Dec. 30 after erasing losses for the year on Friday. The Dow added 21.57 points, or 0.1 percent, to 17,623.87, rising for a seventh consecutive session. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.3 percent, boosted by health-care companies for a second day. About 6.2 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, the lowest this year and 29 percent below the 2016 average.

     “Markets have had a pretty tremendous month,” said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities Inc. in Los Angeles. “We need to see a little bit of consolidation. Even with all that heavy lifting we’ve had, all it’s done is gotten to flat on the year. I would expect the market’s going to take a breather and it should.”

     The S&P 500 staged one of the biggest turnarounds in history amid rallying crude prices and optimism that monetary policy will continue to support global growth. The gauge last week erased a loss that had reached as much as 11 percent, spurred by a slower pace of rate increases signaled by the Federal Reserve. Equities are heading for the first monthly increase in four, after worries over China’s slowdown and routs in oil and banks dragged them to their lowest levels since 2014.

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index slipped 1.6 percent Monday to 13.79, a seven-month low after erasing a 5 percent climb. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX dropped 15 percent last week to add to the longest stretch of weekly declines in four years.

     Policy makers’ tempered outlook for rate increases, due in part to slower global growth, has knocked downtraders’ expectations as reflected in futures prices. Odds for a June boost are nearly 44 percent, compared with about 54 percent before last week’s Fed statement. Officials have hammered home the message that the path for rates depends on progress in the economy. A report today showed sales of previously owned homes dropped more than forecast in February after reaching the second-highest level since 2007.

     Fed Bank of San Francisco President John Williams said in an interview that April or June have the potential for a move, adding that the central bank would be raising borrowing costs sooner if it weren’t for global factors. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart echoed that sentiment, saying the economy is strong enough to weather another rate increase as early as next month.

     “We’ve had a fairly significant decline followed by a significant rally, but if you look at the underlying fundamentals of equity markets and you think about valuation, economic data and policy data, the reality is not a lot has changed,” said Lowell Yura, head of multi-asset solutions for BMO Global Asset Management in Chicago, which oversees $225 billion.

     Six of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries increased, with phone stocks adding 0.6 percent, while health-care and technology gained more than 0.3 percent. Consumer staples and industrial shares edged higher. Energy and and raw-materials companies lost 0.5 percent.

     Energy stocks fell after three straight days of gains, even as crude oil rose. Chevron Corp. dropped 1.3 percent. Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. and Oneok Inc. declined at least 3.6 percent, while Range Resources Corp. sank 3 percent after an analyst at Macquarie Capital USA Inc. downgraded the stock to neutral from outperform.

     Sherwin-Williams slid 5.3 percent, the most since July, after its deal to buy Valspar to become the world’s biggest coatings maker. Declines of at least 1.4 percent for Alcoa Inc. and LyondellBassell Industries NV also helped drag down a group of raw-materials companies. International Paper Co. rose 1.3 percent to the highest since November, while WestRock Co. extended a rally to four days, rising 8.4 percent during the period.

     An S&P gauge of homebuilders fell 1 percent following weaker-than-forecast sales of existing homes last month. PulteGroup Inc. and Meritage Homes Corp. lost more than 1.8 percent. A report on February new-home sales is set for Wednesday, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg projecting a 3.2 percent increase from the prior month.

     Health-care companies rose for a second day to a one-week high, led by an 8 percent gain for Mallinckrodt Plc and a 3.3 percent rally in Illumina Inc. The management shakeup at Valeant helped improve sentiment on drug developers, with the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index adding 1.9 percent. Endo International Plc slumped 3.4 percent to a three-year low after the company said it is evaluating options of potential generic products.

     Industrial shares got a boost as Boeing Co. added 1.4 percent to its longest winning streak in 14 months, rising for a ninth consecutive day. The shares are up 25 percent since reaching a 2 1/2 year low last month. The stock had its biggest drop in more than 14 years on Jan. 27 following a disappointing earnings outlook.

     Apple Inc. closed little changed after wiping out a 1.6 percent climb. The company unveiled a new, smaller iPhone as it seeks to jump-start sales of its flagship product by enticing more users to upgrade, especially in high-growth markets such as China and India. Intel Corp. lost 1 percent after Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Inc. downgraded the shares to the equivalent of sell from neutral.

     Gains of more than 2.4 percent in PayPal Holdings Inc. and EBay Inc. offset Intel’s retreat to help lift tech companies. Micron Technology Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. increased at least 1.2 percent.

     Nike Inc. climbed 2.8 percent, rising for the seventh time in eight sessions before its quarterly results. Competitor Under Armour Inc. added 1.5 percent. Nike and Starwood Hotels were the strongest performers among consumer discretionary shares. Wyndham Worldwide Corp. lost 4.6 percent, while Staples Inc. lost 3.1 percent to lead the laggards.

     Among other shares moving on corporate news, IHS Inc. rallied 10 percent, the most in seven years after the data analysis provider agreed to acquire London-based Markit Ltd. to bulk up in financial services.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

Love can come into being only when there is total self-abandonment.

Krishnamurti

As ever,
 

Carolann

 

Music is always a commentary on society.

                       -Frank Zappa, 1940-1993

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

March 18, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

THE DESIDERATA

         -by Max Ehrmann

You are a child of the universe no less than the trees and the stars;
you have a right to be here.  And whether or not it is clear to you,
no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A man in a Spiderman costume encourages athletes running outside the Old City during the sixth international Jerusalem Marathon Friday.Baz Ratner/Reuters


A businessman stands by a pond in the Kyu-Shiba-rikyu Garden on a warm, sunny day in Tokyo Friday. Thomas Peter/Reuters

Market Closes for March 18th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

17602.30 +120.81

 

+0.69%

 
S&P 500 2049.58 +8.99

 

+0.44%

 
NASDAQ 4795.648 +20.664

 

+0.43%

 
TSX 13497.07 -124.23

 

-0.91%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16724.81 -211.57

 

-1.25%

 

HANG

SENG

20671.63 +167.82

 

+0.82%

 

SENSEX 24952.74 +275.37

 

+1.12%

 

FTSE 100 6189.64 -11.48

 

-0.19%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.286 1.289
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

2.078 2.075
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.8732 1.8950
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.6753 2.6870
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.76875 0.77026

 

US

$

1.30082 1.29826
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.46599 0.68213
 
 
US

$

1.12697 0.88733

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1252.10 1266.50
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 39.44 40.20

 

Market Commentary:

Make Money and the whole nation will conspire to call you a gentleman.

                                                         -George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950
Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell, ha
lting a two-week rally, as Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. slid further in a week to forget, while TransCanada Corp. declined amid a deal to buy Columbia Pipeline Group Inc. for $10.2 billion.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 0.9 percent to 13,497.13 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, drifting to a 0.2 percent loss for the week. The prospect for lower interest rates sank the U.S. dollar, boosting the prices of resources from oil to copper, lifting Canadian equities in the previous two sessions.

     Valeant fell 9.1 percent, extending a five-day slide this week, the longest since August, that included a record 51 percent drop on March 15. The stock has lost 62 percent this week. Embattled Chief Executive Michael Pearson reassured his employees, saying in a Wednesday memo to workers the company won’t go bankrupt and apologizing for the recent turmoil.

     Briefly the largest company in Canada by market capitalization last year, Valeant has lost 90 percent of its value from an August peak after the company announced a weaker 2016 outlook, leading analysts to slash their price targets. It also remains under investigation by U.S. lawmakers and regulators over its business practices.

     The collapse in Valeant shares this week is one of the central themes that have driven the S&P/TSX this year, as a rally in raw-materials and energy stocks have propelled the benchmark equity gauge at the expense of health-care stocks, said Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets.

     “We continue to maintain that 2016 is not 2015, with Canadian stocks poised for surprise outperformance,” Belski said in a note to clients. “This stance also equates to the ‘Valeant effect.’ The stock helped the index last year and is now a detriment to even better performance so far in 2016.”

     The S&P/TSX has jumped 14 percent after reaching a two-and- a-half year low in January, making it one of the best-performing developed markets in the world this year and posting returns ahead of the U.S., Germany and U.K. 

     The rebound has been led by gold mining companies, with the price of the metal near the highest in a year after the Federal Reserve dialed back expectations for rate increases this week, driving the dollar lower. The S&P/TSX now trades at 21.6 times earnings, roughly 14 percent more expensive than the valuation of the U.S. equity benchmark, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

     TransCanada Corp. slipped 0.7 percent after agreeing to purchase Columbia Pipeline Group Inc. in its biggest-ever deal, expanding its reach into the U.S. natural gas market. AutoCanada Inc. lost 6.7 percent after fourth-quarter sales and earnings fell short of analysts’ expectations. The company also appointed Steven Landry as their new chief executive, amid a series of changes to senior management.

     BRP Inc., maker of Ski-Doo snowmobiles and Sea-Doo watercraft, soared a record 18 percent after providing an outlook for earnings and revenue ahead of analysts’ estimates. The company’s fourth-quarter earnings also topped forecasts.

US

By Anna-Louise Jackson

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index turning positive for 2016 in the wake of a dovish Federal Reserve that helped the gauge post its longest weekly winning streak since November.

     The equity benchmark joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average to advance for the year, staging one of the biggest turnarounds in history. The Dow surged 12 percent in 24 days through Thursday, boosted by seven separate daily advances exceeding 1 percent. It’s a stunning comeback from what was the worst-ever start to a year, with stocks pushed over the top as the Fed this week signaled a slower pace of interest-rate increases.

     The S&P 500 added 0.4 percent to 2,049.58 at 4 p.m. in New York, and is now up 0.3 percent this year after falling as much as 11 percent. The Dow climbed 120.81 points, or 0.7 percent, to 17,602.30, extending its 2016 increase to 1 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.4 percent, trimming its decline since the end of 2015 to 4.2 percent from almost 15 percent.

     “It’s been a good week and a great month for equities as stocks have benefited from the winds of change,” said Terry Sandven, who helps oversee $126 billion as chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis. “Many of the items that have plagued sentiment and overall equity returns, really since the beginning of the year, seem to be of less of an immediate concern.”

     Trading volume in U.S. equities was boosted Friday by a quarterly event known as quadruple witching, when futures and options contracts on indexes and individual stocks expire. About 11 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 25 percent above the 2016 average.

     Stocks capped a fifth weekly advance, with the S&P 500 rebounding 12 percent from a Feb. 11 low amid rising crude prices and optimism that monetary policy will continue to support global growth. Friday’s gains were braced by health-care companies, with the group ending the longest losing streak in two months. Banks halted a three-day slide after also lagging a broader rally in the past two weeks.

     The Dow average Thursday wiped out a year-to-date decline that swelled to as much as 10 percent in February. It’s the fastest that a retreat of that size or more has ever been reversed this early in a year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The S&P 500 climbed 1.4 percent this week, and is 3.8 percent away from a record set last May.

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index fell 2.9 percent Friday to 14.02, a seven-month low. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX extended a streak of weekly declines to five, the longest in four years.

     Energy and raw-materials have led the S&P 500 over the last five weeks with gains of more than 16 percent. Energy companies posted the longest streak of weekly advances in 10 months, while raw-materials producers capped the best such stretch since November 2014. A tumble in the dollar Thursday brought on by a more dovish Fed helped push the two groups to three-month highs yesterday.

     The Fed’s tempered outlook for rate increases knocked down traders’ expectations as reflected in futures prices, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Odds for a June boost to borrowing costs are almost 39 percent, compared with about 54 percent before the Fed’s statement Wednesday.

     Probabilities for rate increases had risen in the past month amid better U.S. data, higher crude prices and a rebound in equities. A report today showed consumer confidence eased in the first half of March as lower-income Americans grew more concerned about prospects for the economy and higher gasoline prices.

     “A lot of investors who missed out on the rally are feeling the pressure to go back into the market, especially with the index turning positive for the year,” said Benno Galliker, a trader at Luzerner Kantonalbank AG in Lucerne, Switzerland. “The recovery was pretty stunning and it happened pretty quick. This rally could go on till the end of April.”

     Among shares moving on corporate news, Adobe Systems Inc. climbed 3.9 percent to a 2016 high after reporting a profit that topped analysts’ estimates as more customers signed up for its cloud-based services.

     Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. added 5.5 percent, closing at the highest since July, as the owner of brands such as Westin, Sheraton and W, said it plans to accept a $13.2 billion takeover bid by China’s Anbang Insurance Group Co. and gave suitor Marriott International Inc. a deadline to make a counteroffer.

     Seven of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries rose Friday, with health-care shares gaining 1.3 percent, while financial and industrial stocks added more than 0.8 percent. Phone companies lost almost 1 percent.

     AbbVie Inc. and Celgene Corp. gained more than 2.1 percent, leading a rebound among drugmakers as health-care shares rose for the first time in five days. UnitedHealth Group Inc. added 1.8 percent to an all-time high. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index advanced 1.8 percent after falling in seven of the previous eight sessions as struggles at Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. weighed on drug developers.

     Banks led a climb in financial stocks, as the KBW Bank Index rose 1.8 percent to close at a two-month high. Bank of America Corp. climbed 2.9 percent after its board approved the repurchase of as much as $800 million in shares, a day after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it can expand its buyback program. JPMorgan also added 2.9 percent.

     Industrial companies extended a three-day gain to 3.5 percent, paced by rising airline shares. American Airlines Group Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. added more than 2.9 percent. Boeing Co. rose 2.5 percent, extending a rally to eight days, the longest in more than 14 months.

     Wynn Resorts Ltd. jumped 5.9 percent to a seven-month high, while Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. sank 3.4 percent, bringing its four-day losses to almost 12 percent after earlier this week projecting its first quarterly loss since the company went public.

 

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

How does seeing the difference permit unity?

Quite simply, because physically speaking there cannot be unity, since the physical plane consists of shapes,

and all shapes are different.

Unity only exists in the heart.  It is a feeling: love.

And in love the notion of self disappears; only the other remains.

Swami Pajnanpad

As always,

 

Carolann

The greatest good you can do for another is not just to share your riches, but to reveal to him his own.

                                                                                                  -Benjamin Disraeli, 1804-1881

 

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

March 17, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

HAPPY ST. PATRICK’S DAY!

In the fourth century, Ireland’s patron saint was sold into slavery.  After six years as a cowherd he escaped to France, where he dreamed that the people of his country were summoning him back.  On his return to Ireland he traveled widely, founding hundreds of churches and schools and convincing people to become Christians.  He used the three-leaf shamrock to explain the Holy trinity – the idea that God the Father, Jesus the Son, and the Holy Spirit are one.  On this day Irish people the world over celebrate by wearing a shamrock and, often, having a parade. –from The Book of Holidays Around the World.

March 17, 1824:  Montreal hosts its first St. Patrick’s Day parade.

Montreal was almost a quarter Irish in 1824 when its St. Patrick’s Day parade – one of the oldest in the world – was founded….Today, the parade is one of the biggest parties of the year in Montreal (almost 40 per cent of francophone Quebeckers have some Irish roots), but it has fallen on hard times.  Amid rising costs and waning sponsorship, organizers are asking for donations.  The parade survived 192 years, through the Rebellions of 1837, Fenian raids, the assassination of Thomas D’Arcy McGee and two world wars.  It seems likely to survive this, too.  –Les Perreaux, Globe & Mail.

On March 17th, 1912, Captain Robert Falcon Scott wrote in his Diary from Antarctic:

Tragedy all along the line.  At lunch, the day before yesterday, poor Titus Oates said he couldn’t go on; he proposed we should leave him in his sleeping-bag.  That we could not do, but induced him too come on, on the afternoon march.  In spite of its awful nature for him he struggled on and we made a few miles.  At night he was worse and we knew the end had come.

  Should this be found I want these facts recorded.  Oates’s last thoughts were of his mother, but immediately before he took pride in thinking that his regiment would be pleased with the bold way in which he met his death.  We can testify to his bravery.  He has borne intense suffering for weeks without complaint, and to the very last was able and willing to discuss outside subjects.  He did not – would not – give up hope to the very end.  He was  a brave soul.  This was the end.  He slept through the night before last, hoping not to wake; but he woke in the morning – yesterday.  It was blowing a blizzard.  He said, “I  am just going outside and may be some time.”  He went out into the blizzard and we have not seen him since…

  We knew that poor Oates was walking to his death, but though we tried to dissuade him, we knew it was the act of a brave man and an English gentleman.  We all hope to meet the end with a similar spirit, and assuredly the end is not far.

  I can only write at lunch and then only occasionally.  The cold is intense, minus 40° at midday.  My companions are unendingly cheerful, but wer are all on the verge of serious frostbites, and though we constantly talk of fetching through I don’t think any one of us believes it in his heart.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sew On Target, ridden by Brendan Powell, Niceonefrankie, ridden by Charlie Deutsch, and Kings Palace, ridden by Tom Scudamore, race during the 4.10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate during the Cheltenham Festival at Cheltenham Racecourse in England Thursday. Paul Childs/Action Images/Reuters


Sailboats form a line in Cagnes Sur Mer, France, Thursday. Eric Gaillard/Reuters


Caoimhe Cooburn-Gray poses for a picture on St. Patrick’s day in Dublin, Ireland, Thursday. Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters

Market Closes for March 17th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

17481.49 +155.73

 

+0.90%

 
S&P 500 2040.59 +13.37

 

+0.66%

 
NASDAQ 4774.984 +11.014

 

+0.23%

 
TSX 13621.30 +143.17

 

+1.06%
 
 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16936.38 -38.07
 
 
-0.22%
 
 
HANG

SENG

20503.81 +246.11
 
 
+1.21%
 
 
SENSEX 24677.37 -5.11
 
 
-0.02%

 

FTSE 100 6201.12 +25.63

 

+0.42%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.289 1.300
 
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

2.075 2.070
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.8958 1.9081

 

U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.6870 2.7105
 
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.77026 0.76242

 

US

$

1.29826 1.31161
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.46899 0.68074

 

US

$

1.13151 0.88377

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1266.50 1228.50
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 40.20 38.46

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Jiayue Huang

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose to the highest level since December as commodity shares jumped after the weakening U.S. dollar boosted prices of resources from crude to copper.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index climbed 143.17 points, or 1.1 percent to 13,621.30 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, as eight of the 10 main industries rose. The benchmark gauge has gained 4.7 percent this year, rebounding from a 2 1/2 year low in January to lead gains among developed markets tracked by Bloomberg.

     Canada’s resource-rich index is benefiting from a surge in prices for commodities, allowing it to post returns ahead of the U.S, Germany and U.K. Raw-materials producers have surged 36 percent after reaching a 10-a-half-year low on Jan. 19. Energy companies advanced 28 percent from a January nadir that was the lowest since 2004.

     The Canadian benchmark index is now trading at 21.7 times earnings, roughly 17 percent more expensive than the valuation of the U.S. equity benchmark, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

     Canadian equities got a boost from a U.S. dollar, which has fallen to the lowest level since June. That makes commodities denominated in the currency more attractive, boosting their prices. The greenback slumped after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled that it would slow down the projected path of interest- rate increases.

     Financial stocks contributed the most to the rally as Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. surged 16 percent for its one-day gain since December 2008.

     Energy companies rose 1.6 percent to the highest level since November as crude prices topped $40 a barrel in New York. TransCanada Corp. advanced 2.6 percent after the company said it will buy Columbia Pipeline Group Inc. for $10.2 billion to expand its reach in the U.S. natural gas market.

     Industrial companies advanced the most among 10 main industries. Bombardier Inc. rose the most in a week after a government official said the Canadian government will ultimately help the struggling jetmaker. Air Canada also gained 5.7 percent.

     Health-care stocks tumbled the lowest level since November 2011, dragged lower by a decrease in Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. Valeant, briefly the largest company in Canada by market capitalization last year, has lost more than three-quarters of its value from an August peak as regulators and investors have scrutinized its business practices after the Quebec-based drugmaker cut its 2016 forecast earlier this week. The company’s stock has plunged 58 percent in four days.

US

By Dani Burger

     (Bloomberg) — The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased its 2016 losses, as a weaker dollar spurred a rally in commodity producers and industrial shares that spread to the broader U.S. stock market.

     Equities pushed to the highest levels since the end of last year as a gamut of companies that benefit from a lower U.S. currency, from General Electric Co. to Coca-Cola Co., surged. A scaled-back pace of interest-rate increases from the Federal Reserve sent the dollar spiraling lower, helping the Dow extend a rebound of more than 11 percent from a two-year low reached last month.

     The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.7 percent to 2,040.59 at 4 p.m. in New York, near its break-even level for the year. The Dow added 155.73 points, or 0.9 percent, to 17,481.49, wiping out a 2016 loss that reached as much as 10 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.2 percent, with an increase capped by the slide in biotechnology companies. About 8.2 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 6 percent below the 2016 average.

     “Being back to positive does help to a degree,” said Peter Jankovskis, who helps oversee $1.9 billion as co-chief investment officer of Lisle, Illinois-based OakBrook Investments. “Some of the selling that we had through January and February was definitely overdone, but the fact that the Fed remains reasonably confident in the U.S. economy and is keeping an eye on overseas conditions, that’s given some reassurance to investors.”

     A five-week rally has eradicated declines in the Dow and nearly in the S&P 500 that were fed by concerns a slowdown in China would spread, worries that were intensified by a deepening rout in oil and other commodity prices. Energy, raw-material shares and banks have led the rebound as crude recovered, lifting sentiment on lenders amid reduced anxiety about the solvency of some energy producers.

     Caterpillar Inc. gained 2.1 Thursday with commodity shares, even after cutting its first-quarter outlook amid speculation the worst is behind the company. FedEx Corp. jumped nearly 12 percent after raising the bottom of its full-year earnings forecast range. Boeing Co. gained 2.5 percent to a two-month high. Health-care shares sank for a fourth session, the longest since January.

     The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to its lowest since June after the Fed yesterday signaled that borrowing costs won’t rise as fast as officials previously forecast, citing the potential impact from weaker global growth and financial-market turmoil on the U.S. economy. Caterpillar, the biggest maker of construction and mining machinery, bears out that concern with its lower profit outlook as oil drillers cut billions in costs to weather a rout in commodities amid tepid global demand.

     Still, the lower dollar makes U.S. multinational companies more competitive overseas, a potential boost to lagging profits while the currency’s weakness also bolsters investor demand for commodities priced in dollars. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose to a three-month high. The raw-material and industrial groups were the two strongest performers in the S&P 500 Thursday, with the latter group reaching an eight-month high.

     The Fed meeting was the third major central-bank event in a week, as policy makers continue to signal their willingness to buttress global growth. The European Central Bank unleashed an unprecedented stimulus package last week, while the Bank of Japan on Tuesday held off from adding more to its record stimulus to assess the impact of negative interest rates. The Bank of England today kept its key interest rate at a record low.

     Traders’ expectations for Fed rate increases this year retreated after rising during the past month amid better U.S. data, higher oil prices and a rebound in equities. Odds for a June boost to borrowing costs are at 37 percent, compared with about 54 percent before the Fed’s statement and outlook.

     The S&P 500 has risen nearly 12 percent since its February low, while briefly erasing its 2016 drop. The benchmark is now about 4 percent below a record set last May.                       

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index fell 3.7 percent Thursday to 14.44, a four-month low. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX is on track for its longest streak of weekly declines in four years.

     While central banks are focused on addressing slower growth abroad, U.S. data has shown a resilience against the overseas weakness. A report today showed fewer Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, illustrating the Fed’s view of a stronger labor market. Also, gauge on manufacturing in the Philadelphia area rose more than economists forecast.

     Nine of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries increased today, with raw-materials and industrial shares rising at least 2 percent. The health-care group lost 1.1 percent as drugmakers continued to slide and consumer discretionary shares were little changed.

     “It’s more broad-based than a commodity thing,” said Brian Frank, portfolio manager and co-founder at Frank Capital Partners LLC. “What I’m seeing is that it’s more corporate- buyback driven, with the quiet period from earnings season over. It’s not fundamental-based, but more corporate flows are coming into the market here, and that’s why it’s so broad.”

     Owens-Illinois Inc. and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. increased more than 6.6 percent as the strongest performers in raw- materials, with the group reaching the highest level since Dec. 4. Chemical maker LyondellBasell Industries NV added 2.6 percent, reversing its losses this year. The group has added 21 percent since reaching a 21-month low in January.

     Industrial companies in the benchmark reached the highest since Nov. 23, propelled by FedEx’s biggest gain since 1993. General Electric Co. climbed 2.6 percent to erase its 2016 loss, and Emerson Electric Co. added 6.4 percent for its strongest one-day increase since 2011.

     The Dow Jones Transportation Average extended Wednesday’s rally, advancing 3 percent to its highest since Dec. 2, boosted by FedEx’s jump. Union Pacific Corp. and Ryder System Inc. added more than 3.4 percent to three-month highs. The index erased its losses for the year earlier this month, and sits 20 percent above its January low.

     As oil surged above $40 a barrel in New York for the first time since December, energy-related companies rose 1.4 percent. The group has rallied nearly 22 percent from a five-year low in January. Chesapeake Energy Corp. added 9.1 percent. Devon Energy Corp. and Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. both advanced more than 4.5 percent.

     “The oil market recovering will continue to feed a risk-on trade,” said Tony Bedikian, Boston-based managing director of global markets at Citizens Bank. “It’s historically a sign of some potential for global recovery.”

     Mylan NV and Mallinckrodt Plc tumbled more than 4 percent as health-care shares extended their longest selloff in two months. The group is down 3.3 percent this week, the only loser among the S&P 500’s 10 main industries during the period.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

Knowledge is the annihilation of the separation between me and the other.

Swami Prajnanpad

As ever,
 

Carolann

 

Strong convictions precede great actions.

     -James Freeman Clarke, 1810-1888

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

March 16, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

The Poem
Penillion for Pussy Riot
      –by John Kinsella

Faux fathers take
Pride away, rake
In the money
Quick fast and pray

Dead souls to make
The count, forsake
Their liberty.
‘Security’

is the serfdom
Of the kingdom
On earth: weapons-
Grade big truncheon

Penetration
To boost nation
Of God Father
To spite Mother.

Shake, rattle, roll.
Kiss sacred scroll
As if worship
is the fillip

To topple self-
Styled god-Himself
Master icon
And his henchmen.

       From ‘Drowning in Wheat’: Selected Poems

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Horserace attendees wear hats and fascinators on ladies day during the Cheltenham Festival at Cheltenham Racecourse in England Wednesday. Paul Childs/Action Images/Reuters


A model presents a creation by designer ‘writtenafterwards’ during the Autumn/Winter 2016 Tokyo Fashion Week Wednesday. Thomas Peter/Reuters

Market Closes for March 16th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

17325.76 +74.23

 

+0.43%

 
S&P 500 2027.22 +11.29

 

+0.56%

 
NASDAQ 4763.969 +35.300

 

+0.75%

 
TSX 13478.13 +77.82

 

+0.58%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16974.45 -142.62

 

-0.83%

 

HANG

SENG

20257.70 -31.07
 
 
-0.15%
 
 
SENSEX 24682.48 +131.31
 
 
+0.53%
 
 
FTSE 100 6175.49 +35.52

 

+0.58%

 

Bonds

 

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.300 1.330
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

2.070 2.085
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.9081 1.9699
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.7105 2.7310

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.76242 0.74891
 
 
US

$

1.31161 1.33527
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.47105 0.67979
 
 
US

$

1.12156 0.89161

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1228.50 1232.00
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 38.46 36.34

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canada stocks rose for the first time in three days as commodities producers gained with crude and gold after the U.S. Federal Reserve scaled back forecasts for how high interest rates will rise this year.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 0.6 percent to 13,478.13 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, rebounding from a 0.9 percent loss in the previous two sessions. Canadian equities extended gains after the prospect for lower rates sank the U.S. dollar and in turn boosted the prices of resources from oil to copper.

     The central bank’s updated quarterly projections now imply two quarter-point increases this year, down from four in December, due to the potential impact of weaker global growth and financial-market turmoil. The decision came after data in Canada, showed that a gauge of manufacturing sales jumped more than expected, hinting at improvements in the nation’s economy.

     The S&P/TSX has jumped 14 percent after reaching a two-and- a-half year low in January, making it one of the best-performing developed markets in the world this year and posting returns ahead of the U.S., Germany and U.K. 

     The rebound has been led by raw-materials producers, which benefited from rising prices of gold and industrial metals. The advance has left the gauge trading at 21.5 times earnings, roughly 17 percent more expensive than the valuation of the U.S. equity benchmark, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

     Canadian manufacturing sales rose 2.3 percent in January, more than four times the consensus economist forecast of a 0.5 percent advance, according to Statistics Canada data. 

     “Canadian exports are starting to show signs of life, and factories are responding in kind,” said Nick Exarhos, an economist with CIBC Capital Economics, in a note to clients.

     Raw-materials producers surged 3.6 percent, reversing an earlier loss, as gold climbed after the Fed decision. Barrick Gold and Goldcorp Inc. rallied more than 4.1 percent. Encana Corp. jumped 9.1 percent as energy producers also advanced.

     Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. slipped 2.9 percent, extending its worst loss on record yesterday. A series of analysts including Nomura Securities’ Shibani Malhotra, slashed price targets on the stock after the company provided lower 2016 outlook yesterday.

     Valeant, briefly the largest company in Canada by market capitalization last year, has lost more than three-quarters of its value from an August peak as regulators and investors have scrutinized its business practices. The company has also had to grapple with an extended medical leave from Chief Executive Officer Michael Pearson, who only returned recently, while pulling its financial guidance and delaying fourth-quarter results.

US

By Jiayue Huang, Oliver Renick and Dani Burger

     (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Indexclosed at its highest level this year as the Federal Reserve signaled a slower pace of interest-rate increases amid the potential impact from weaker global growth and financial-market turmoil.

     Commodity shares led the advance as crude rallied with metals prices after the Fed decision sent the dollar tumbling against major peers. Copper miner Freeport-McMoRan Inc. surged 10 percent, while Chevron Corp. rose 1.2 percent. Oracle Corp. rallied to a four-month high, boosting technology shares after its quarterly profits topped estimates. Banks slid on the outlook for a slower climb in rates, with Bank of America Corp. losing 1.9 percent.

     The S&P 500 added 0.6 percent to 2,027.22 at 4 p.m. in New York, halting a two-day slide. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed at its highest this year as it gained 74.23 points, or 0.4 percent, to 17,325.76. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.8 percent to its best level since Jan. 6. About 7.6 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 14 percent below the 2016 average.

     “By guiding lower on inflation expectations as well as their median forecast, the signal for the market has now been shifted to a more dovish stance,” said Chad Morganlander, a money manager at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. in Florham Park, New Jersey. “Investors in a short term will look at it as a bullish signal for the overall market. It moves the Fed in a position of being more accommodative, which will soften the dollar.”

     The Federal Open Market Committee kept the target range for the benchmark federal funds rate at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent. The median of policy makers’ updated quarterly projections saw the rate at 0.875 percent at the end of 2016, implying two quarter-point increases this year, down from four forecast in December.

     “The committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen,” the FOMC said. “However, global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks.”

     It is the third major central-bank policy event since Thursday, following an unprecedented stimulus package unleashed by the European Central Bank, and after the Bank of Japan held off from adding more to its record stimulus as officials gauge the impact of a negative interest-rate strategy adopted in January.

     Traders responded to the Fed by lowering expectations for rate increases this year, as reflected by futures prices, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Odds for a June boost to borrowing costs fell to 37 percent, compared with about 54 percent before the Fed’s statement and outlook.

     U.S. stocks have rebounded in the past month, bolstered by improving data, rising crude prices and as central banks around the world indicated a willingness to continue measures to support growth and stabilize markets after a tumultuous start to the year.

     The S&P 500 has risen nearly 11 percent since its February low, trimming its 2016 drop to 0.8 percent. The index is among the best-performing developed-market benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg this year.

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index fell 11 percent Wednesday to 14.99, the lowest in three months. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX is also on track for a fifth weekly decline, the longest stretch in four years.

     “The trajectory the Fed just articulated both gives them some wiggle room in case things weaken but also puts them on a path toward normalization,” said Matthew Kaufler, a portfolio manager with Federated Investors Inc. who oversees funds with about $2 billion assets. “The Fed has positioned itself as a data-driven decision-making entity, and the data that’s coming in has largely reinforced the idea the economy is on firm footing.”

     Fed officials have stressed that the pace of rate boosts will be gradual and data-dependent. A report today showed consumer prices excluding food and fuel climbed more than forecast in February for a second month, adding to signs inflation is moving closer to the central bank’s target.

Separate measures showed new-home construction rose more than economists forecast last month and factory production increased for a second month, indicating manufacturing may be starting to stabilize.

     “The Fed delivered to the market what the market was anticipating,” said Jeff Mortimer, the Boston-based director of investment strategy for BNY Mellon Wealth Management, which oversees more than $183 billion. “This certainly doesn’t do anything to prevent upward drift in the market going forward. What we’ve seen over the last couple weeks may have been anticipation of this. It’s certainly not a negative.”

     Eight of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries climbed today, led by commodity shares with raw-material and energy producers rising more than 1.6 percent. Technology companies increased 1.1 percent. Declines in banks weighed on the financial group, while drugmakers dragged down health-care stocks for a third day.

     Freeport-McMoRan jumped 10 percent to a four-month high to lead raw-materials, while Alcoa Inc. added 6.3 percent. Southwestern Energy Co. and Devon Energy Corp. advanced more than 8.8 percent to top gains among energy producers.

     Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. increased more than 1.3 percent, joining Oracle to lift the technology group to its highest close this year, after gaining 13 percent from a February low. Microsoft rose for a fourth day, its longest rally since October.

     Banks in the benchmark declined for a third day and the sixth time in the last eight sessions. Citizens Financial Group Inc. and Fifth Third Bancorp fell the most Wednesday, losing at least 2 percent. The KBW Bank Index slid 1 percent, the most in a week.

     Allergan Plc lost 3.6 percent and Pfizer Inc. sank 1.7 percent, the biggest drags on health-care as the group dropped for a third day, the most in five weeks. Mallinckrodt Plc declined 6.4 percent, the biggest drop in the S&P 500, after a nearly 15 percent tumble yesterday amid the fallout from Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.’s Tuesday plunge.
 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

Nonviolence is the summit of bravery.

Mahatma Gandhi

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

If a window of opportunity appears, don’t pull down the shade.

                                                        -Tom Peters, 1942-

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

March 15, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

We attended a splendid performance of Gaetano Donizetti’s opera, Mary Stuart, in Seattle last Saturday evening.  Seattle Opera continues to inspire under general director Aidan Lang.   To note, the final opera of the season will take place from May 7th – May 25th, and will be The Flying Dutchman.  It is not to be missed if at all possible because the Dutchman will be performed by the celebrated bass-baritone Greer Grimsley who is sure to fascinate once again.  I’ve encountered fans from as far away as Europe – chatting at intermissions – who travelled to Seattle, just to see Greer Grimsley performing in  Wagner’s operas.  You can inquire about tickets at Seattle Opera at 206.389.7676.

1972 – “The Godfather,” Francis Ford Coppola’s epic gangster movie based on the Mario Puzo novel and starring Marlon Brando and Al Pacino, premiered in New York.

1975 – Greek shipping magnate Aristotle Onassis, the husband of former first lady Jacqueline Kennedy, died at age 69.

1967 – Parliament recommends Calixa Lavallée’s “O Canada” music as the National Anthem

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A farmer harvests broccoli in the town of al-Ansariyeh south of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday. Ali Hashisho/Reuters


Girls dressed in traditional clothes wait for Camilla, the Duchess of Cornwall, at the State Stud Farm in Djakovo, Croatia, Tuesday. Antonio Bronic/Reuters

Market Closes for March 15th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

17251.53 +22.40

 

+0.13%

 
S&P 500 2015.93 -3.71

 

-0.18%

 
NASDAQ 4728.668 -21.612

 

-0.45%

 
TSX 13400.31 -77.23

 

-0.57%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 17117.07 -116.68
 
 
-0.68%
 
 
HANG

SENG

20288.77 -146.57

 

-0.72%

 

SENSEX 24551.17 -253.11

 

-1.02%

 

FTSE 100 6139.97 -34.60

 

-0.56%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.330 1.349
 
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

2.085 2.099
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.9699 1.9609

 

U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.7310 2.7326
 
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.74891 0.75388
 
 
US

$

1.33527 1.32646
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.48323 0.67420

 

US

$

1.11081 0.90024

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1232.00 1242.75
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 36.34 37.18
 
 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell a second day as Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. tumbled the most on record after giving its sales forecast missed estimates and the company warned it risked violating its debt terms.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index declined 0.6 percent to 13,400.31 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, paring earlier losses of as much as 1.4 percent in afternoon trading as commodities producers reversed losses. The resurgent S&P/TSX is one of the best-performing developed markets in the world this year, vying with New Zealand for the top spot, while posting returns ahead of the U.S., Germany and U.K.

     Rallies among energy and materials producers have led to the annual gain, and shares in the benchmark S&P/TSX now trade at about 21.3 times earnings, roughly 17 percent more expensive than the valuation of the benchmark U.S. equity index, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

     The rally paused Tuesday almost entirely because of a 51 percent rout in Valeant. The stock took 118 points off the index, which would have advanced if the drugmaker weren’t included. The Quebec-based company cut its 2016 forecast, reported a weak fourth quarter and said it risked breaching some of its debt agreements if it can’t file its annual report in time.

     Valeant, briefly the largest company in Canada by market capitalization last year, has lost more than three-quarters of its value from an August peak as regulators and investors have scrutinized its business practices. The company has also had to grapple with an extended medical leave from Chief Executive Officer Michael Pearson, who only returned recently, while pulling its financial guidance and delaying fourth-quarter results.

     Canadian shares joined a slump in global equities as investors were reminded that raw-material prices remain volatile amid uncertainty persists over stimulus efforts in Europe and economic growth in China. Oil dropped a second day as Russia signaled Iran won’t join major producers in freezing output to reduce a global glut.

     Energy producers rose 0.4 percent, rebounding from an intraday loss in the final hour of trading. Oil settled 2.3 percent lower in New York as Iran has “reasonable arguments” for not joining an alliance to cap output now, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said after meeting with his Iranian counterpart.

     First Quantum Minerals Ltd. and Teck Resources Ltd. tumbled at least 4.4 percent as iron ore dropped a sixth day, reversing gains from a record spike, and copper led other base metals lower.

US

By Dani Burger

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks slipped in light trading, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index posting back-to-back declines for the first time this month, as investors considered the capacity of central banks to boost global growth.

     The complexion of Tuesday’s retreat mirrored yesterday’s results, with commodity companies among the biggest losers, joined again by health-care and financial shares. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. plunged 51 percent after cutting its profit forecast. Apple Inc. added 2 percent amid positive analyst comments on iPhone sales, while baby formula maker Mead Johnson Nutrition Co. surged 11 percent on deal speculation.

     The S&P 500 declined 0.2 percent to 2,015.93 at 4 p.m. in New York, trimming an earlier 0.7 percent slide. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 22.40 points to 17,251.53, after erasing a 108-point decline. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 0.5 percent, while the Russell 2000 Index sank 1.6 percent. About 6.5 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 26 percent below the 2016 average. Yesterday’s session saw the fewest shares traded this year.

     “The Fed is really the key this week,” said Bob Phillips, co-founder and managing principal at Indianapolis-based Spectrum Management Group Inc. “With January retail revised down, that’s going to be viewed as a negative because the question is, where is the consumer and why aren’t we seeing savings from low oil prices flow through to sales elsewhere? It probably causes the Fed to be much more cautious in announcing a rate increase because that’s a fundamental weakness in the economy.”

     U.S. equities retreated with shares in Asia and Europe after the Bank of Japan refrained from adding more stimulus. Central banks around the world have indicated a willingness to continue measures to support economic growth and stabilize markets, helping stocks rebound in the past month. The Federal Reserve kicked off a two-day policy meeting today, with investors tempering their trading before the outcome Wednesday afternoon.

     Traders are pricing in little chance of a rate increase, though bets for a boost later in the year have risen. The probability of a June move is now seen at almost 54 percent, from 2 percent a month ago.

     Fed officials have stressed that the pace of rate increases will be gradual and data-dependent. A report today showed retail sales dropped in February and the prior month’s gain was revised to a decline. Separate data showed wholesale prices fell last month, held down by lower fuel costs that have kept inflation languishing below the Fed’s goal.

     Another measure showed confidence among homebuilders held in March at a nine-month low as sales prospects waned, while other data indicated inventories at warehouses, stores and showrooms are not being drawn down amid tepid underlying demand.

     The S&P 500 has rebounded 10 percent since a Feb. 11 low, paring its 2016 drop to 1.4 percent, after concern over China’s economic slowdown and a deepening oil rout triggered losses of as much as 11 percent. The index is among the best-performing developed-market benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg this year.                          

     But while a gauge of investor anxiety hovers close to the lowest level of 2016, not all traders are convinced. The concern is visible in the record number of shares outstanding in an exchange-traded note betting on an increase in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the VIX. The measure wiped out gains at the close, decreasing 0.5 percent today to 16.84, on the way to its first monthly decline since October.

     “All the concerns we had at the beginning of the year are still pretty much there,” said Kully Samra, who manages U.K. clients for Charles Schwab Corp. in London. “It’s all about how much central banks can reassure investors. Language has become a policy tool in itself — the way the Fed communicates with the market is going to be very important. The rebound has basically sent markets back to neutral territory.”

     Six of the S&P 500’s 10 main groups declined Tuesday, with health-care and raw-materials shares dropping more than 0.9 percent. Energy was little changed after erasing almost all of a 1.9 percent selloff. Technology stocks added 0.4 percent, while phone, utility and consumer staples companies edged higher.                       

     Fallout from Valeant’s tumble was palpable as declines among drugmakers dragged down the broader health-care group. Pfizer Inc. and Merck & Co. decreased at least 1.2 percent. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index fell 3.9 percent, the most in two months. Mallinckrodt Plc dropped nearly 15 percent, while Endo International Plc plunged 23 percent, its worst slide in 12 years. The Russell 2000 Health-Care Index lost 4 percent, the biggest retreat in five weeks.

     Energy producers followed oil lower for a second day as Iran bolstered crude exports and Russia signaled the Persian Gulf nation won’t join major producers in freezing output to reduce a global glut. Chesapeake Energy Corp. sank 4.6 percent, trimming a drop of nearly 10 percent, after losing 6.8 percent Monday. Pipeline operator Kinder Morgan Inc. decreased 3.6 percent.

     Freeport-McMoRan Inc. fell 7 percent to lead raw-materials lower. The copper producer’s shares had rallied 40 percent since Feb. 25 through yesterday. Alcoa Inc. and CF Industries Holdings Inc. retreated more than 5.2 percent.

     Financials slipped for a second day. Jefferies Group reported a first-quarter loss as revenue from trading stocks and bonds tumbled 82 percent. Leucadia National Corp., which owns the firm, fell 5.7 percent, the most in three years. Also among the worst-performing financial companies, CBRE Group Inc. and Franklin Resources Inc. fell at least 3.3 percent.

     Gains in Apple and Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. helped lift tech shares, as the companies advanced at least 2 percent. Apple rose to its highest price this year amid its longest rally in six months, as demand for its iPhone in the March quarter continues to grow, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley and Rosenblatt Securities Inc.

     The retailer group was little changed after the government’s monthly sales figures, though gains of 0.7 percent or less in Home Depot Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Priceline Group Inc. helped offset steeper declines in a bevy of chain stores with lower weightings in the index. Kohl’s Corp. fell more than 3.6 percent, while Best Buy Co. and Macy’s Inc. dropped more than 1.7 percent.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

The key to an easy relationship with other people is not to impose your ego,

nor to crush the ego of others.

Swami Prajnanpad

As ever,
 

Carolann

 

Time is what we want most, but what we use worst.

                                   -William Penn, 1644-1718

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

March 14, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

March 14, 1879: Albert Einstein’s Birthday

 

Albert Einstein, an only child and a slow learner, was born in Ulm, Germany, to a featherbed salesman and his wife.  He had little interest in formal schooling but eventually earned a doctorate in physics.  Not interested in the demands of academia, he went to work as a clerk in the Bern, Switzerland, patent office where he could work on physics in the afternoons.  During 1905, what is now called his “miracle year,” he wrote a series of five seminal papers.  One dealt with special relativity, and one introduced the world’s more familiar equation: E=m².

When Einstein moved to Berlin in 1914 to direct the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Physics, a campaign was begun to discredit him, but he survived it.

Later, during Hitler’s reign, Einstein’s work was described as “Jewish physics”  as opposed to the preferred “Aryan physics.”  Seeing the damage Hitler was doing, Einstein renounced his German citizenship and revised his views on pacifism, believing Hitler could only be stopped by force.  The FBI kept a record of Einstein’s activities and recommended denying him immigration to the U.S., but Einstein moved to New Jersey, and Princeton University, and became a permanent U.S. citizen in 1940.  In 1952, the government of Israel asked him to be its second president, an honor he declined.

As a personality, Einstein was noted for his kindness and amiability.  Quirky and practical, he minimized his wardrobe – buying identical sets of clothing – so that he wouldn’t have to think about what to wear.  Though he had been an early advocate of nuclear energy, on April 5, 1955, he signed a letter to protest nuclear tests and bombs.  Days late, on April 18, 1955, he died in his sleep. – by Kathleen Melin.

My religion consists of a humble admiration of the illimitable superior spirit who reveals himself in the slight details we are able to perceive with our frail and feeble mind. –Albert Einstein.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A hot air balloon flies near Australia’s Parliament House in Canberra Monday on the 30th anniversary of Canberra’s Balloon Spectacular festival. Lukas Coch/AAP/Reuters


Humanoid robot Pepper dances in front of visitors at CeBit, the world’s biggest computer and software fair, in Hanover, Germany, Monday.Nigel Treblin/Reuters

Market Closes for March 14th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

17229.13 +15.82

 

+0.09%

 
S&P 500 2019.64 -2.55

 

-0.13%

 
NASDAQ 4750.281 +1.815

 

+0.04%

 
TSX 13477.54 -44.46

 

-0.33%
 
 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 17233.75 +294.88

 

+1.74%

 

HANG

SENG

20435.34 +235.74

 

+1.17%
 
 
SENSEX 24804.28 +86.29
 
 
+0.35%

 

FTSE 100 6174.57 +34.78

 

+0.57%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.349 1.358
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

2.099 2.110
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.9609 1.9768
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.7326 2.7469
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.75388 0.75694
 
 
US

$

1.32646 1.32110
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.47278 0.67899
 
 
US

$

1.11030 0.90066

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1242.75 1264.75
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 37.18 38.50
 
 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks slipped, retreating from the highest level this year, as energy producers tumbled with the price of crude after Iran refused to join a freeze in production before increasing output to pre-sanctions levels.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 0.3 percent to 13,477.54 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, after reaching a Dec. 1 high and capping a second weekly increase last week. The resurgent S&P/TSX is one of the best-performing developed markets in the world this year, vying with New Zealand for the top spot, while posting returns ahead of the U.S., Germany and U.K.

     Canada’s equity benchmark has benefited from the recent rebound in commodities prices, from crude to copper and precious metals, with raw-materials producers leading gains in the S&P/TSX with a 21 percent rally this year. The index has clawed back rapidly after entering a bear market in January and subsequently tumbling to a 2013 low. A slide in 2015 resulted in the worst annual performance since the financial crisis.

     Shares in the Canadian gauge now trade at about 21.4 times earnings, roughly 17 percent more expensive than the valuation of the benchmark U.S. equity index, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

     Raw-materials and energy producers dropped at least 0.9 percent, the most in the S&P/TSX as six of 10 industries retreated on trading volume 7 percent lower than the 30-day average. Goldcorp Inc. and Detour Gold Corp. declined more than 3 percent as gold in the spot market fell for the fifth time in six sessions on a strengthening dollar. Oil producers Enbridge Inc. and Crescent Point Energy Corp. lost at least 2.3 percent.

     Crude futures dropped in New York, falling from a three- month high. Iran plans to boost output by about a third to 4 million barrels a day before it will consider joining any move to rebalance the market, the Iranian Students News Agency reported, citing Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh.

     A meeting of major oil producers among the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to discuss the production freeze is now expected to occur in April, according to four Gulf OPEC delegates. Ministers from some members had previously suggested the meeting would take place in March.

     Veresen Inc. sank 7 percent, the most in two months, after U.S. regulators denied its application for a $5.3 billion liquefied natural gas export terminal in Oregon and BMO Capital Markets downgraded the stock on the unexpected news.

     Cascades Inc. tumbled 10 percent, to a September low, as the paper-products company forecast a drag this year from foreign-exchange effects and higher capital spending as it expands its box-making operations.

     Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. slipped 0.6 percent as the drugmaker prepares to discuss its long-awaited fourth-quarter results and provide 2016 guidance March 15. Shares of Valeant have plunged almost 75 percent from an August peak as regulators and lawmakers have scrutinized the company’s operations.

US

By Dani Burger

     (Bloomberg) — U.S stocks closed little changed in light trading, near the highest levels this year, as investors awaited further assurances that central banks will continue to support growth.

     Gains in consumer shares, including Amazon.com Inc., Starbucks Corp. and Walt Disney Co., offset declines in energy and raw-materials companies, with commodity shares lagging Monday as crude oil fell. Banks also slipped for the first time in three sessions. Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. added 7.8 percent after an unsolicited takeover offer from a group of companies led by by China’s Anbang Insurance Group Co.

     The Standard & Poor’s 500Index fell 0.1 percent to 2,019.64 at 4 p.m. in New York, closing above its average price during the past 200 days for a second session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 15.82 points, or 0.1 percent, to 17,229.13, after weaving between gains and losses. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased less than 0.1 percent. About 6.4 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 29 percent below the 2016 average.

     “We’ve come so far so fast that at this stage, we’re just treading water after such a big move,” said Frank Cappelleri, executive director at Instinet LLC. “One area to watch for clues are financials and banks. That becomes even more important with the Fed announcement on Wednesday. They’ve been a major reason why the S&P has been able to extend further than it originally would have.”

     The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting this week will be in focus for indications on the trajectory of interest rates, after equities on Friday surged in the wake of additional stimulus steps from the European Central Bank. The Bank of Japan concludes a policy review Tuesday, while the Bank of England has a rate decision Thursday. Central banks have indicated a willingness to continue measures to boost growth and stabilize markets, helping buttress a comeback for U.S. stocks in the past month.

     The S&P 500 has rebounded more than 10 percent since a Feb. 11 low and trimmed its 2016 drop to 1.2 percent, after losses of as much as 11 percent amid concern over China’s economic slowdown and a deepening oil rout. The gauge capped its fourth straight week of gains on Friday, the most since November, and closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time this year, ending its longest streak below that threshold since 2011.

     Constituents in the benchmark are poised to repurchase as much as $165 billion of stock this quarter, approaching a record reached in 2007. The buying contrasts with rampant selling by clients of mutual and exchange-traded funds, who after pulling $40 billion since January are on pace for one of the biggest quarterly withdrawals ever.

     While traders are pricing in little chance of a Fed rate increase on March 16, they have boosted the odds for later in the year. The probability of a June move is now 53 percent, from less than 2 percent a month ago, bolstered by improving economic data, stabilizing oil prices and the comeback in equities.

     Fed officials have stressed that the pace of rate increases, following December’s first boost since 2006, will be gradual and data-dependent. Reports on retail sales, industrial production and housing starts will also be assessed this week for signs of strength in the world’s biggest economy.

     “I think the Fed will tread very cautiously,” said Joachim Fels, global economic adviser for Pacific Investment Management Co., during an interview on Bloomberg TV. “They learned last year and very early this year that the rest of the world — debtors, emerging markets and in particular China — are not ready for higher rates.”

     Oil fell from a three-month high Monday as Iran said it would raise output to pre-sanctions levels before joining talks to freeze production, putting pressure on energy shares. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 3.4 percent to $37.18 a barrel.

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index rose 2.6 percent to 16.92 after falling Friday to the lowest this year. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX remains on track for its first monthly decline since October, which would halt the longest streak of gains since 2011.

     “The combination of some modest profit-taking and then a reaction to the price of oil declining is giving the market not even a hair cut, but just a slight trim,” said John Stoltzfus, the New York-based chief market strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. “After a 10 percent rally in this type of market, with job growth good but wage growth relatively anemic, earnings season still a few weeks away and energy sector earnings projected down, the curb-your-enthusiasm would be somewhat called for.”

     Six of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries fell, with energy, financial and raw-materials companies dropping at least 0.4 percent. Consumer discretionary shares gained 0.4 percent while industrial, technology and utility stocks were little changed.

     Consumer discretionary companies advanced, thanks in large part to a boost in travel-related shares. Starwood traded at a four-month high. Marriott International Inc., which reaffirmed its bid to buy Starwood, added 3 percent. TripAdvisor Inc. climbed 4.5 percent amid takeover speculation circulating on Twitter.

     Retailers ed for a fourth day, the longest stretch in almost a month. GameStop Corp. increased 3 percent, while Dollar Tree Inc. gained 1.2 percent amid its lengthiest rally since Feb. 1.

     Southwestern Energy Co. and Chesapeake Energy Corp. were among the worst performers in the S&P 500, falling more than 6.7 percent. Southwestern was the second-best performing stock on Friday, but gains reversed as the price of oil declined.

     Financials reversed part of a Friday gain, as banks in the index dropped 0.5 percent, after losing as much as 1.3 percent. Bank of America Corp. fell 1.1 percent, while Comerica Inc.  climbed 1.4 percent after CLSA upgraded the company on takeover speculation.

     Among other shares moving on corporate news, Fresh Market Inc. soared 24 percent, the most since 2010, after Apollo Global Management LLC agreed to buy the grocer for about $1.4 billion in cash. It’s the buyout firm’s third announced acquisition of more than $1 billion since the start of February.

     3D Systems Corp. jumped 25 percent, the most in five years to a seven-month high after the company’s quarterly profit and sales topped analysts’ estimates.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

What though we have many bodies?  We have but one soul.

The rays of sun are many through refraction.

But they have the same source.

I cannot, therefore, detach myself from the wickedest soul

nor may I be denied identity with the most virtuous.

Mahatma Gandhi

As ever,
 

Carolann

 

Luck is the residue of design.

 -Branch Rickey, 1881-1965

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

March 11, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

March 11, 1935 – Birth of the Bank of Canada

Choosing to Get Wet in the Rain

We create ourselves a lot of needless fuss and bother by huffing and puffing and trying to keep dry during a rainstorm.   How liberating it is to abandon all ideas of dryness and give yourself up to the downpour.  Don’t run, stroll.  Look up, smile, and enjoy the sensation of water from the heavens refreshing your careworn face.  The wetter you get the more free you will feel.  Once inside and standing, dripping, on your mat at home the laughter will begin to take hold.  You remove your sodden wet suit and make a dash for the bathroom (so much better if you don’t happen to be on your own).  Every inch of you is utterly drenched as huge great globules of water dribble down your nose.  Dry yourself off, wrap yourself in a dressing gown and devour a pack of biscuits on the sofa with a cup of smouldering tea.  –Tom Hodgkinson, The Book of Idle Pleasures, Random House.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A visitor prays in front of candles in Tokyo to mourn the March 11, 2011, tsunami and earthquake victims. Friday is the five-year anniversary of the disaster that killed thousands and set off a nuclear crisis. Yuya Shino/Reuters


The Proton rocket, that will launch the ExoMars 2016 spacecraft to Mars, is transfered to the launchpad at the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan in this handout photo released by the European Space Agency (ESA) Friday. Stephane Corvaja/ESA/Reuters


A woman walks her dog on Wandsworth Common on a foggy morning in London Friday. Hannah McKay/Reuters

Market Closes for March 11th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

17213.31 +218.18

 

+1.28%

 
S&P 500 2021.99 +32.42

 

+1.63%

 
NASDAQ 4748.465 +86.309

 

+1.85%

 
TSX 13517.63 +138.49

 

+1.04%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16938.87 +86.52

 

+0.51%

 

HANG

SENG

20199.60 +215.18

 

+1.08%

 

SENSEX 24717.99 +94.65

 

+0.38%

 

FTSE 100 6139.79 +103.09

 

+1.71%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.358 1.299
 
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

2.110 2.068
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.9768 1.9235

 
 

U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.7469 2.6853
 

 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.75694 0.74972
 
 
US

$

1.32110 1.33383
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.47300 0.67889

 

US

$

1.11498 0.89688

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1264.75 1266.50
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 38.50 37.84

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose, joining a rally in global markets as growing optimism on European stimulus overshadowed a surprise increase in Canada’s jobless rate.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 1.1 percent to 13,522 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, to the highest since Dec. 1 while capping a second weekly increase. The resurgent S&P/TSX is one of the best-performing developed markets in the world this year, vying with New Zealand for the top spot as the only nations higher in 2016, while posting returns ahead of the U.S., Germany and U.K.

     Global stocks rebounded from yesterday’s losses as investors reconsidered the aggressive stimulus package unveiled by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi Thursday that included lowered interest rates and increased bond purchases. Markets whipsawed after Draghi said in later comments the central bank is done with cutting borrowing costs for now.

     Canada’s unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 7.3 percent in February, the highest since March 2013 as the nation continues to struggle with the impact of lower oil prices. Employers eliminated a net 2,300 jobs, Statistics Canada said Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 10,000- job increase and an unchanged jobless rate.

     “Today’s report indicates continued flat employment growth which is contributing to a rise in the unemployment rate, though the bigger factor is stronger labor force gains,” said Paul Ferley, assistant chief economist at RBC Capital Markets, in a note to clients. Job losses in the natural resource industries, hard-hit by the collapse in crude prices of the past year, are being offset by gains elsewhere, Ferley said.

     Canada’s equity benchmark has benefited from the recent rebound in commodities prices, from crude to copper and precious metals. The index has clawed back rapidly after entering a bear market in January. A slide in 2015 resulted in the worst annual performance since the financial crisis.

     Shares in the Canadian gauge now trade at about 21 times earnings, roughly 18 percent more expensive than the valuation of the benchmark U.S. equity index, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

     Energy producers increased 1.7 percent as eight of 10 industries advanced in the broader S&P/TSX. Canada’s largest lenders rose, after halting a five-day rally Thursday. Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Nova Scotia gained at least 1.1 percent. Raw-material and phone companies were the only laggards. BCE Inc. slipped 0.8 percent.

     Suncor Energy Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. rose at least 1 percent. Crude prices in New York added 1.7 percent for a fourth weekly gain, the longest winning streak since May, amid signs of rising U.S. fuel demand and easing crude production. Cenovus Energy Inc. jumped 4.7 percent after the stock was added to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Americas conviction list.

     Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. gained at least 1.5 percent to boost the industrials group to a 1.6 percent gain, erasing a 1.2 percent drop yesterday.

US

By Dani Burger

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks joined a global rally, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its highest close this year, as investors reassessed stimulus measures in Europe and warmed to the steps taken to boost growth.

     Banks and commodity shares were the best performers, continuing to pace a monthlong advance. Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. added more than 2.6 percent. Dow Chemical Co. gained 3.1 percent while Anadarko Petroleum Corp. jumped to a two-month high as crude posted its longest run of weekly gains since May.

     The S&P 500 rose 1.6 percent to 2,022.19 at 4 p.m. in New York, capping a fourth straight week of gains, the most since November. The gauge finished above its average price during the past 200 days for the first time this year, ending its longest streak below that threshold since 2011. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 218.18 points, or 1.3 percent, to 17,213.31. It also closed at a 2016 high and above its 200-day moving average. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.9 percent.

     “Any aggressive moves to stimulate growth to keep expansion on track is positive,” said Joe Quinlan, chief market strategist at U.S. Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management. “Global recessionary fears have receded, and that has been key. What the ECB did yesterday helped that momentum. What’s key for U.S. investors is the euro-dollar rate, and that’s back up which is good news for U.S. earnings and for affiliates of multinationals.”

     Equities rallied Friday after a late-day rebound yesterday erased a selloff in the wake of expanded measures announced by the European Central Bank, along with comments by President Mario Draghi that suggested further cuts to interest rates were not likely. Investors today shrugged off worries the ECB steps might not be enough to revive growth, and piled back into shares that have carried the S&P 500’s recovery from a 22-month low last month, including energy, raw-materials, technology and financial companies.

     The S&P 500 has rebounded more than 10 percent since a Feb. 11 low and trimmed its 2016 drop to less than 1.1 percent, after losses of as much as 11 percent amid concern over China’s economic slowdown and a deepening oil rout.

     Investor sentiment in the aftermath of the ECB’s announcements, swinging from optimism the stimulus could boost growth to concern the measures would fall short, illustrates the tension in markets and the challenges central banks face in mollifying them after seven years of unconventional policy maneuvers.                          

     In the U.S., the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting next week may further illuminate the trajectory of interest rates. While traders are pricing in little chance of an increase on March 16, they have boosted the odds for later in the year. The probability of a June move is now about 51 percent, from less than 2 percent a month ago, bolstered by improving economic data, stabilizing oil prices and the comeback in equities.

     Fed officials have stressed that the pace of rate increases, following December’s first boost since 2006, will be gradual and data-dependent. Reports on retail sales, industrial production and housing starts are due next week before the meeting.

     “The market is now looking forward to the Fed decision next week so it’s going to be pretty quiet,” said Patrick Spencer, equities vice chairman at Robert W. Baird & Co. in London. “This is the most hated bull market ever, but it’s all bubbling up back again.”

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index fell 8.6 percent Friday to 16.50, the lowest this year. That helped reverse gains Monday and Tuesday in the measure of market turbulence known as the VIX, as it finished lower for a fourth week, the most since October. About 7.5 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 15 percent below the 2016 average.                     

     All of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries increased, with seven groups rising more than 1.4 percent. Energy and financial shares rose at least 2.2 percent while raw-materials gained 1.8 percent. More defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utilities and phone companies lagged, while consumer discretionary shares advanced 1.6 percent.

     Energy producers posted their fourth consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak since May. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.7 percent, topping $38 a barrel, amid signs of rising U.S. fuel demand and easing crude production.

Southwestern Energy Co. and Devon Energy Corp. advanced at least 10 percent. Anadarko Petroleum, which yesterday said it was cutting 1,000 jobs to cope with lower oil prices, added 8.9 percent.

     Fertilizer maker CF Industries Holdings Inc. gained 6 percent as the strongest performer in raw-materials. DuPont Co. advanced 2.7 percent and Monsanto Co. climbed 2.2 percent. Agriculture prices saw the longest rally in four years, as adverse weather and rising demand finally help to reduce the outlook for global gluts of food supplies.

     Banks in the benchmark posted their strongest advance since March 1 amid speculation higher bond yields would help boost profitability. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield reached its highest since January. Citizens Financial Group Inc. and SVB Financial Group increased at least 4 percent. The KBW Bank Index added 2.9 percent, closing at a one-week high.                     

     Insurance providers also helped lift the index, advancing 2.8 percent. Lincoln National Corp. gained 5.1 percent to a two- month high, while Principal Financial Group Inc. and MetLife Inc. added at least 4.7 percent. The companies, among the most sensitive to interest rates, posted their third consecutive day of gains.

     Symantec Corp. jumped 3.9 percent after RBC Capital Markets Corp. upgraded the company amid growing demand for security products. Micron Technology Inc. and Western Digital Corp. gained more than 4.1 percent, buoying technology companies in the index. Intel Corp. climbed 1.6 percent to its highest since Jan. 14. People familiar with the matter said the chipmaker is planning to sell part of its venture capital unit, assets that could be worth as much as $1 billion.

     An S&P index of homebuilders extended a climb to a fourth week, the longest since June. The measure is up 21 percent in the past month after losing nearly 22 percent in the first six weeks of the year. D.R. Horton Inc. posted its best climb in four months, up 5.2 percent. Toll Brothers Inc. added 3.4 percent.

     The Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 2.3 percent to erase losses during the previous four sessions, as the measure extended a rally to an eighth straight weekly advance, the most since May 2009. Alaska Air Group Inc. surged 5.7 percent to a 2016 high after reporting a 13 percent increase in February traffic. Norfolk Southern Corp. climbed 4.3 percent, the railroad’s biggest one-day gain since November.

 

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

Meditation can take place when you are sitting in a bus,

or walking in the woods full of light and shadows,

or listening to the singing of the birds,

or looking at the face of your wife or child.

Krishnamurti

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

You only grow when you are alone.

        -Paul Newman, 1925-2008

 

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

March 10, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Carolann is out of the office this afternoon, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

This four photo sequence combo shows chunks of ice breaking off the Perito Moreno Glacier, in Lake Argentina, at Los Glaciares National Park, near El Calafate, in Argentina’s Patagonia region, Thursday. The massive natural monument in the province of Santa Cruz periodically advances over the lake, and then breaks off. The glacier last ruptured in March 2012. Francisco Munoz/AP


President Obama, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, first lady Michelle Obama, and Sophie Gregoire Turdeau wave from the Truman Balcony during a state arrival ceremony on the South Lawn of White House in Washington Thursday.

Market Closes for March 10th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

16995.13 -5.23

 

-0.03%

 
S&P 500 1989.57 +0.31

 

+0.02%

 
NASDAQ 4662.156 -12.222

 

-0.26%

 
TSX 13379.14 -13.76

 

-0.10%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16852.35 +210.15
 
 
+1.26%

 

HANG

SENG

19984.42 -11.84

 

-0.06%

 

SENSEX 24623.34 -170.62

 

-0.69%

 

FTSE 100 6036.70 -109.62

 

-1.78%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.299 1.251
 
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

2.068 2.040
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.9235 1.8760
 
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.6853 2.6620
 
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.74972 0.75443
 
 
US

$

1.33383 1.32550
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.49163 0.67041

 

US

$

1.11831 0.89421

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1266.50 1246.40
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 37.84 38.29

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell, reversing a brief advance as gains in global markets evaporated amid the European Central Bank’s expanded stimulus efforts to combat deflation and an uncertain economic recovery in the region.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 0.1 percent to 13,379.14 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, after rising as much as 0.9 percent. The resurgent S&P/TSX remains one of the best- performing developed markets in the world this year, vying with New Zealand for the top spot as the only two nations higher in 2016 while posting returns ahead of the U.S., Germany and U.K.

     Global stocks swung between gains and losses as ECB President Mario Draghi unleashed his most audacious stimulus package yet, before whipsawing the euro after saying in comments the central bank is done with lowering borrowing costs for now. Gold futures rallied as the dollar fell against a basket of 10 other currencies after Draghi’s comments.

     The ECB’s package includes testing the lower bounds of all the ECB’s interest rates, expanding monthly bond purchases by a third and signaling it may pay lenders to borrow its cash. The moves exceeded market expectations and underscore continued global uncertainty over the pace of a European economic recovery and the risks of a Chinese slowdown.

     Canada’s benchmark equity gauge has benefited from the nascent rebound in commodities prices, from crude to copper and precious metals. The index has clawed back gains rapidly after entering a bear market in January. A slide in 2015 resulted in the worst annual performance since the financial crisis.

     Shares in the Canadian gauge now trade at about 21 times earnings, roughly 18 percent more expensive than the valuation of the benchmark U.S. equity index, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

     Canada’s largest lenders slipped, halting a five-day rally. Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Nova Scotia lost at least 0.4 percent as the S&P/TSX Banks Index snapped its longest winning streak since November. The group had climbed 4.4 percent during its run, after the largest lenders reported first-quarter results over the past two weeks.

     Penn West Petroleum Ltd. sank 13 percent, the most in two months, after the company said it was exploring options on default risk as it doesn’t see compliance with existing covenants by the end of the second quarter. Oil slipped from a three-month high amid uncertainty about when a meeting between Saudi Arabia, Russia and other producers to freeze output will occur as Iran seeks to rebuild its exports.

     TransCanada Corp. lost 3.2 percent to a five-week low amid reports the company has held talks with Columbia Pipeline Group Inc. about a potential takeover, according to people familiar with the matter. Talks are at a standstill and the deal is less likely to happen at the moment, the people said.

     Empire Co. plunged 15 percent, the biggest loss for the stock since at least 1988, after the owner of the Sobeys and Safeway brands in Canada reported sales and profit short of analyst expectations. Empire took a writedown of about C$1.7 billion on goodwill and long-lived assets in its West business unit, primarily due to challenges facing its Safeway brand, the company said.

US

By Joseph Ciolli and Oliver Renick

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks closed little changed after swinging between gains and losses, as investors assessed fresh stimulus measures unleashed by the European Central Bank and whether selling Thursday went too far in the face of the new initiatives.

     Equities stormed back in a final-hour rebound, with major indexes wiping out declines that had reached more than 1 percent. An earlier retreat was led by industries that were among the biggest contributors to a three-week rally, as JPMorgan Chase & Co. slipped 0.9 percent and Microsoft Corp. dropped 1.5 percent.

     The S&P 500 Index rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,989.57 at 4 p.m. in New York, after climbing as much as 0.8 percent and dropping 1 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.23 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 16,995.13. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.3 percent. About 8.4 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 5.6 percent below the average in 2016.

     “Draghi sometimes shoots himself in the foot with what he says and that took away from what he’s doing, but what the ECB is doing is highly stimulative,” said Krishna Memani, chief investment officer at Oppenheimer Funds. “There’s no doubt about that, and it’s going to have a meaningful impact on credit spreads and hopefully, for some time, on growth prospects.”

     The European Central Bank cut all its interest rates and expanded the scope of its bond-buying program as President Mario Draghi strives to fend off the threat of euro-area deflation. The moves exceeded market expectations and initially spurred demand for risky assets. Draghi said at a press briefing that risks to the euro-area growth outlook are still to the downside, and the rate of inflation will remain negative before picking up later in the year. Still, he said he doesn’t anticipate more rate cuts.

     In the aftermath, equities lurched from optimism that the ECB’s moves could boost growth to concern that the bold new measures will fall short, and then back again. Even before today, the S&P 500’s recent rebound was showing signs of fatigue as banks — a pillar of the rally — fell for a third day Wednesday, the longest losing streak in nearly a month. The muted reaction to the ECB’s efforts illustrated central banks’ waning influence on markets as they seek to prop up growth.

     “At some point, monetary policy can’t be the only driver of the direction of stock prices or the assumption of risk,” said Ernie Cecilia, chief investment officer at Bryn Mawr Trust Co., which oversees $8.5 billion in Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania. “We need to see revenue and earnings growth in the corporate sector, and less stringent fiscal policies, particularly in the U.S.”

     Speculation for additional moves from the ECB to boost growth, along with stability in oil prices and improving U.S. data helped global equities rebound during the prior three weeks. The main U.S. equity benchmark had jumped 9 percent since a 22-month low last month, trimming its losses for 2016 amid speculation that monetary policy around the world will support global growth.

     “It’s a soup day — there’s a little bit of everything in it,” said Larry Peruzzi, managing director of international equities at Mischler Financial Group Inc. in Boston. “Mostly the Draghi/ECB pop faded and oil broke below $37.50, which some see as a technical level, and also look at the U.S. dollar that rolled over when markets did. So basically we are back to where we were earlier in the week, looking for a catalyst or direction.”

     Comments from the Federal Reserve next week may give investors more cues on the path of interest rates. Fed officials have stressed that the pace of rate increases, following December’s first hike since 2006, will be gradual and data- dependent. 

     A report today showed filings for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in five months. Employers are demonstrating an appetite to further add to staff and hold off on firings based on a brighter U.S. outlook, even as overseas growth sputters. Traders are pricing in practically no chance of higher borrowing costs this month, while odds for a September Fed move have risen to 63 percent from less than 30 percent two weeks ago.

     While the seven-year U.S. bull market has restored about $14 trillion to stock values, investors have been withdrawing money from equity funds as concerns over shrinking earnings, China’s economic slowdown and interest-rate policy take over. The S&P 500 has is little changed in the past 18 months, while rising almost 200 percent since the low on March 9, 2009.

     “From a stimulus front, it seems like the ECB really stepped up to the plate,” said Joe Bell, a Cincinnati-based senior equity analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research Inc. “When you look at the U.S. market and the S&P 500, it has to be in the context of the strong rally we’ve had the last several weeks. Maybe there’s going to be a reluctance to buy until the market takes a little bit of a breather.”

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index fell 1.6 percent Thursday to 18.05, erasing a 6.8 percent climb. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX is on track to snap a streak of three consecutive weekly declines, the longest this year.

     Seven of the S&P 500’s 10 main groups gained today, with technology, industrial and financial shares sinking 0.1 percent. Consumer discretionary stocks gained 0.2 percent and energy producers pared a 1.8 percent drop to end the day little changed. Phone and raw-materials companies advanced at least 0.4 percent.

     Along with Microsoft’s decline, Oracle Corp. slid 1.1 percent. Microsoft is offering free licenses for its database software to current Oracle customers in its latest effort to wrestle market share from its competitor. Cisco Systems Inc. fell 0.8 percent to erase a portion of a 2.1 percent climb yesterday.

     Banks in the benchmark edged higher to snap a three-day losing streak, the longest since stocks reached a recent low on Feb. 11. Wells Fargo & Co. and U.S. Bancorp retreated more than 0.5 percent, while Bank of America Corp. and Fifth Third Bancorp rose more than 1 percent. Lenders had rallied 15 percent from last month’s nadir through March 4.

     Among shares moving on corporate news, Williams Cos. fell 8.3 percent, after suitor Energy Transfer Equity LP disclosed in a filing late Wednesday that it had completed a private unit offering that it may use to help pay down debt associated with the deal after Williams blocked its proposal to hold a public offering.

     Dollar General Corp. surged 11 percent to a record after fourth-quarter profit topped analysts’ estimates, helped by rising food sales. The shares climbed the most since August 2014.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

“Happiness is when what you think, what you say, and what you do are in harmony. Mahatma Gandhi”

As ever,
 

Karen

 

“When you are content to be simply yourself and don’t compare or compete, everybody will respect you”. Lao Tzu

 

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

March 9, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

It is seven years today since the bottom of the global financial crises was reached.
The first Barbie doll went on display at the American Toy Fair in New York City on this day in 1959.

Numbers:
100

Billionaires living in Beijing, making it the “billionaires capital of the world,” nudging New York City (with 95) for the first time.

18,300
Astronaut applications received by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration for 14 openings, an effective acceptance rate of 0.07 %.

5.1
Percentage acceptance rate for applications to Stanford University in California, considered the most selective college in the US.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A laborer works at a construction site during a partial solar eclipse in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Wednesday. Samrang Pring/Reuters

A combination photograph shows the beginning (top l.) to the end (bottom r.) of a total solar eclipse as seen from the beach of Ternate island, Indonesia, Wednesday. Beawiharta/Reuters

Market Closes for March 9th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

17000.36 +36.26

 

+0.21%

 
S&P 500 1989.26 +10.00

 

+0.51%

 
NASDAQ 4674.379 +25.554

 

+0.55%

 
TSX 13392.90 +81.85

 

+0.61%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16642.20 -140.95
 
 
-0.84%
 
 
HANG

SENG

19996.26 -15.32

 

-0.08%

 

SENSEX 24793.96 +134.73

 

+0.55%

 

FTSE 100 6146.32 +20.88

 

+0.34%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.251 1.182
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

2.040 1.992
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.8760 1.8287
 
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.6620 2.6348
 
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.75443 0.74493
 
 
US

$

1.32550 1.34241
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.45797 0.68589

 

US

$

1.09994 0.90914

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1246.40 1267.00
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 38.29 36.50

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Jiayue Huang

     (Bloomberg) — Rallies in financial and energy shares lifted Canadian stocks to the ninth gain in 10 sessions, as the nation’s central bank left interest rates unchanged and crude surged above $38 a barrel in New York.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 81.85 points, or 0.6 percent, to 13,392.90 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, as nine of the 10 main industry groups advanced amid trading volume 6.4 percent higher than the 30-day average. The Canadian benchmark index is the best performing this year among developed markets tracked by Bloomberg.

     Higher commodity prices from oil to copper and iron ore have boosted Canada’s resource-rich benchmark index. Still, while raw-materials have rebounded in the past month, they are still well below levels of even two years ago — 24 percent in the case of copper and 64 percent for crude. Shares in the Canadian gauge now trade at about 21 times earnings, roughly 18 percent more expensive than the valuation of the benchmark U.S. equity index, the S&P 500 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

     Energy and financial stocks, which led declines during a selloff to start the year, contributed the most to Wednesday’s gains. Energy producers added 0.9 percent. Seven Generations Energy Ltd. rose 6.6 percent to its highest price since May after the Calgary-based gas explorer said it sees production for 2016 up 75 percent from prior year.

     Financial stocks also rallied as the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as it waits to see how much fiscal stimulus is coming from the federal government. Alaris Royalty Corp. climbed to its highest level since November after the lender reported full-year results. National Bank of Canada rose for a ninth day to cap its longest winning streak since September, sending the stock to its highest level this year.

     Health-care stocks gained the most among all the sectors. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. surged 4.5 percent, while Prometic Life Sciences Inc. jumped 3.2 percent.

US

By Oliver Renick and Anna-Louise Jackson

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, headed into the eighth year of a bull run amid speculation central banks will continue to provide stimulus to bolster sluggish global growth.

     Energy companies led an advance as oil rallied, though equity gains were uneven in lighter trading before the European Central Bank meets tomorrow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average struggled to maintain its climb after rising more than 80 points. Chevron Corp. added 4.6 percent, while Nike Inc. slipped 2.5 percent and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. retreated 1.1 percent to weigh on the gauge.

     The Standard & Poor’s 500 Indexrose 0.5 percent to 1,989.26 at 4 p.m. in New York, after the benchmark lost 1.1 percent yesterday, the most in two weeks. The Dow increased 36.26 points, or 0.2 percent, to 17,000.36 after briefly wiping out its gains. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.6 percent. About 7.5 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 16 percent below the 2016 average.

     “There’s a lot of focus on tomorrow with the ECB and that’s probably what has it a little bit quieter today,” said Michael Antonelli, an institutional equity sales trader and managing director at Robert W. Baird & Co. in Milwaukee. “The market is waiting for a new catalyst. Rallies are looking to be sold right now by algorithms and computer-driven quants and the move from the downside is probably in the late stages.”

     Equities rebounded with crude oil before updates from the ECB on Thursday and the Federal Reserve next week that may provide more insight on the potential for further stimulus and the trajectory of interest rates. Speculation for additional moves from the ECB to boost growth, along with strengthening crude prices and improving U.S. data have helped support an equities rebound since mid February.

     On the seventh anniversary of a bull market that has restored $14 trillion to stock values, investors are still worried about shrinking earnings, China’s economic slowdown and uncertainty over interest rates. While the S&P 500 has surged almost 200 percent since the low on March 9, 2009, it is little changed in the past 18 months.

     The equity benchmark halted its longest rally in five months yesterday. Still, the gauge has climbed 8.8 percent since a low last month amid a rebound in banks and commodity shares, trimming its decline this year to 2.7 percent from as much as 11 percent.

     Doubleline Capital LP’s Jeffrey Gundlach said the S&P 500 has about 2 percent upside and 20 percent downside, making for a lousy risk-reward trade-off. Betting on stocks is a “big losing proposition,” he said Tuesday during a webcast, and the recent rebound is a “bear market rally.” Gundlach runs the $56 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund with Philip Barach.

     Market turmoil early this year, spurred by anxiety over the impact of weakening growth in China, led investors to lower expectations for further rate increases in 2016, though improving measures of the U.S. economy and the equity rebound have recently lifted bets. Traders are pricing in little chance of higher borrowing costs this month, while odds for a September move have risen to 61 percent from less than 35 percent two weeks ago.                          

     Fed officials have stressed the pace of rate increases, following December’s first hike since 2006, will be gradual and data-dependent, though the policy makers will be closely watching what their foreign counterparts do — and how markets react — in mapping out the path for rates.

     A report today showed wholesale inventories in January unexpectedly rose as sales showed a surprise decline. That pushed the inventory-to-sales ratio to the highest since the depths of the last recession, suggesting tepid demand is making it difficult for businesses to draw down inventories.

     “People are waiting to see what comes out of the ECB tomorrow and for the S&P to show some conviction above the 2,000 level,” said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities Inc. in Los Angeles. “There are clearly elevated expectations for something positive coming from Draghi tomorrow. The equity market continues to trade off the sentiment in energy and commodity pits and there’s a little bit of a reversal today with oil trading better.”

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index fell 1.8 percent Wednesday to 18.34. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX jumped the most in two weeks yesterday.

     Nine of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries increased, with energy rising 1.5 percent and technology stocks up 1 percent. Phone companies fell 0.3 percent as Frontier Communications Corp. dropped 6.8 percent after Citigroup Inc. analyst Michael Rollins downgraded the shares to sell from neutral. Consumer discretionary, financial and health-care shares were little changed.

     Energy producers bounced from their steepest drop in six weeks as oil recovered amid data showing stronger demand for gasoline reduced fuel inventories. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.9 percent, topping $38 a barrel. The group gained for the sixth time in seven days after yesterday snapping the longest rally since November.

     Nine of the ten biggest gainers today in the S&P 500 were energy companies, with Devon Energy Corp. and Chesapeake Energy Corp. leading the advance with gains of at least 6.8 percent. Miner Freeport-McMoran Inc. added 5.7 percent even after saying copper-output cuts spurred by lower prices won’t be enough to end a surplus this year.

     Along with Freeport-McMoRan, Dow Chemical Co. and LyondellBasell Industries NV helped boost the raw-materials group, rising at least 0.5 percent. Fertilizer maker Mosaic Co. and International Paper Co. added more than 1.9 percent.

     Technology stocks also buoyed the S&P 500, after dropping the most in two weeks on Tuesday. The group added 1 percent on gains of at least 2 percent in Microsoft Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc. International Business Machines Corp. rose 1 percent to a three-month high.

     Drug developers were also a drag, with the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index down 1.2 percent. Biogen Inc. and Amgen Inc. lost more than 2.1 percent, while Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. fell 5.1 percent. The shares retreated as the government prepares to test a variety of alternative payment plans in an effort to lower costs for a $20 billion Medicare program that pays doctors to administer high-priced drugs for cancer and other conditions.

     Nike fell for the fifth time in six days, while Under Armour Inc. lost 1.2 percent to weigh on a group of apparel and consumer durables companies in the S&P 500. Hanesbrands Inc., one of the strongest performers in the index since the bull market began seven years ago, slipped 1.3 percent.
 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

What is a family?  It is the place where we feel an atmosphere of love and unity.

And if you can feel this unity in a broader sphere, then gradually your family ties will disappear.

What is the purpose of family life?

It is where we can share emotions however we need to and as freely as possible.

The individual is the one who is cut off, separated.

When you are part of a group,

living for others, you broaden yourself.

This really is family life.

Swami Prajnanpad

As ever,
 

Carolann

 

Success seems to be largely a matter of hanging on after others have let go.

                                                                 -William Feather, 1889-1981

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

March 8, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On March 8th, 1950, the Volkswagen microbus, an icon of the counterculture movement, went into production.  The vehicle, officially known as the Volkwagen Type 2 (the Beetle was the Type 1) or the Transporter, was a popular mode of transportation among hippies in the U.S. during the 1960s.

1913: US income tax begins.

1917: Russian Revolution begins

1983: President Reagan calls USSR an “evil empire.”

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dajana Djuric, who has worked as a chimney sweep since the age of six, cleans a chimney in Brcko, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dado Ruvic/Reuters


Australian Shepherd Hank tries to catch a frisbee in Frankfurt, central Germany, Tuesday. Frank Rumpenhorst/dpa/AP 

Market Closes for March 8th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

16964.10 -109.85

 

-0.64%

 
S&P 500 1979.26 -22.50

 

-1.12%

 
NASDAQ 4648.824 -59.430

 

-1.26%

 
TSX 13311.05 -72.55

 

-0.54%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16783.15 -128.17

 

-0.76%

 

HANG

SENG

20011.58 -148.14

 

-0.73%

 

SENSEX 24659.23 +12.75

 

+0.05%

 

FTSE 100 6125.44 -56.96

 

-0.92%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.182 1.276

 

CND.

30 Year

Bond

1.992 2.075
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.8287 1.9057
 
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.6348 2.7057
 
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.74493 0.75229

 

US

$

1.34241 1.32928
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.47683 0.67713

 

US

$

1.10013 0.90898

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1267.00 1267.90
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 36.50 37.90
 
 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell for the first time in nine days, halting the longest rally in almost two years, as commodities producers dropped amid renewed concern that resources demand from China will slump.

     The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index lost 0.5 percent to 13,311.05 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark equity index had surged 5.1 percent during the longest winning streak since 2014. Canada’s benchmark equity gauge is the best-performing developed market in the world this year, joining New Zealand as the only two nations in positive territory.

     The resurgent S&P/TSX has gone from zero to hero this year, benefiting from a rebound in commodities prices from crude to copper and precious metals. The index has clawed back gains rapidly after entering a bear market in January, after a slide in 2015 that resulted in the worst annual performance since the financial crisis.

     Shares in the Canadian gauge now trade at about 21 times earnings, roughly 18 percent more expensive than the valuation of the benchmark U.S. equity index, the S&P 500 Index, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

     Global stocks halted a five-day rally after a report showed China’s export slump deepened in February, plunging 25.4 percent for the biggest decline since May 2009. Imports meanwhile extended a streak of declines to 16 months, highlighting the difficulties Canada’s second-largest trading partner faces in maintaining steady economic growth.

     Raw-materials and energy producers declined the most in the S&P/TSX, as six of 10 industries retreated. Trading volume was 14 percent higher than the 30-day average. The two groups have led the rebound in Canadian equities, surging at least 23 percent from January lows to return to bull markets.

     Base metals producers Teck Resources Ltd. and First Quantum Minerals Ltd. lost at least 7.5 percent to lead raw-materials producers lower. The industry is the best-performing in Canada this year with a 20 percent advance. 

     The rally in iron ore stalled after soaring a record 19 percent yesterday. Encana Corp. retreated 15 percent as crude futures reversed gains to fall from the highest price this year. Encana extended losses in the final minutes after a Reuters report it was looking at a sale of about $1 billion more assets.

     Performance Sports Group Ltd., which makes athletic equipment for hockey and lacrosse, plunged a record 66 percent after the company slashed its 2016 earnings forecast to a range of 12 to 14 cents from 66 to 69 cents. One of the company’s national retailer clients has filed for Chapter 11, resulting in write downs, Performance Sports said.

US

By Oliver Renick

     (Bloomberg) — The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell the most in two weeks, led by a selloff in energy shares, after worsening economic data from Asia reignited concern over the outlook for global growth.

     Commodity companies and banks, pillars of the market’s recent gains, paced declines. Energy producers in the S&P 500 fell the most in six weeks as oil retreated, while the Russell 2000 Energy Index posted the biggest drop since November 2014. JetBlue Airways Corp. tumbled 9 percent to lead airlines lower after a revenue forecast disappointed. Urban Outfitters Inc. jumped the most in more than three years after its quarterly profit topped estimates.

     The S&P 500 slid 1.1 percent to 1,979.26 at 4 p.m. in New York, its first decline in March to end its longest winning streak in five months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 109.85 points, or 0.6 percent, to 16,964.10 after nearly erasing a 152-point drop. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 1.3 percent, while the Russell 2000 Index declined 2.4 percent, the most in a month.

     “You have to consider China data coming in the way it did because then you have a potential for the global slowdown, but that’s a story that’s pretty well understood,” said Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist at JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC in New York. “We’re digesting this steady move up we’ve had that hasn’t really had a bout of risk-off considering it was a huge bounce off the bottom. A lot of people are looking out to the ECB and one comment from Draghi could bring us into risk-off.”

     Equities fell Tuesday as data showed Japan’s economy and Chinese exports are shrinking, reviving anxiety that monetary policy won’t be enough to support global economy. The declines also come after the S&P 500’s best three-week stretch since 2014, as investors reined in risk-taking before gatherings of central bankers in Europe and the U.S.

     Energy producers in the benchmark slid with crude, down 4.1 percent for the biggest drop since Jan. 25 after a 14 percent gain during the past three weeks. Banks fell for a second session after halting a four-day advance Monday, a sign that momentum in the group was slowing following a 15 percent rebound from nearly three-year lows. Apache Corp. and Transocean Ltd. sank at least 9.5 percent, while Citigroup Inc. decreased 3.7 percent.

     West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 3.7 percent, after closing Monday at its highest since Dec. 24., on expectations that reports will show U.S. inventories rose last week to an eight-decade high.

     Investors are looking to Thursday’s European Central Bank policy update, and next week’s Federal Reserve gathering for indications of the trajectory of interest rates and potential for further stimulus. Speculation for additional moves from the ECB to boost growth, along with nascent stability in crude prices and improving U.S. data have helped global equities rebound during the past three weeks.                          

     Traders are pricing in a less than one-in-10 chance the Fed will raise borrowing costs this month. Odds for a September move have risen to about 57 percent from less than 35 percent two weeks ago, though the probability slipped from 59 percent yesterday following the data from China and Japan.

     The S&P 500 is up 8.2 percent since a low last month after slipping today from the highest since Jan. 5. The index is down 3.2 percent this year, after losing as much as 11 percent. It trades at 16.6 times this year’s projected earnings, up from a two-year low of 15.2 in February. Still, that’s about 8 percent below the 18.1 peak reached last April.

     “After three weeks of gains, we’re getting a bit of profit- taking triggered by the not-so-nice economic figures out of Asia,” said Heinz-Gerd Sonnenschein, a strategist at Deutsche Postbank AG in Bonn, Germany. “Oil has helped push markets up and we’re lacking that catalyst today. It’s also a question of pausing and waiting to hear from Draghi this week and the Fed soon after.”

     The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index rose 7.6 percent Tuesday to 18.67, the most in two weeks. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX had lost 40 percent during the S&P 500’s three consecutive weeks of gains through Friday. About 8.6 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 4 percent below the 2016 average.

     Some of the biggest winners since the market touched a low on Feb. 11 reversed course. Financial, materials and energy stocks, three of the top four performers in the S&P 500 since then, led the benchmark gauge lower Tuesday with declines of at least 1.6 percent. Investors instead turned to defensive shares that have been the best performers in 2016, as utilities and consumer staples added at least 0.3 percent.

     Banks that made the biggest comebacks from lows last month were among the hardest hit today. Comerica Inc. lost 4.1 percent after a 23 percent jump in the last three weeks, while Bank of America Corp. sank 3.5 percent after a 21 percent run-up.

     Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. retreated more than 2.8 percent. Retail auto sales in China fell 3.7 percent in February from a year ago, the Passenger Car Association said on its website. Auto and parts makers in the S&P 500 have been the strongest performers since Feb. 11 among 24 industry groups in the benchmark, rising more than 18 percent through Monday.

     Freeport-McMoRan Inc. slumped 12 percent, the biggest decline in almost two months to lead raw-materials to their worst day since Feb. 23. Shares of the copper miner surged 31 percent last week, the most in more than seven years. Alcoa Inc. lost 7.1 percent today, the largest retreat since Jan. 12.

     Declines in semiconductors, which were also strong performers during the recent rally, dragged down the technology group. Micron Technology Inc. and Skyworks Solutions Inc. dropped at least 4.1 percent. Intel Corp. decreased 1.2 percent.                       

     Consumer staples shares reversed much of Monday’s decline, boosted by drugstore chain Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.’s 1.6 percent climb. Costco Wholesale Corp. gained 2 percent to rise for the first time in four days, and Clorox Co. added 1.6 percent.

     Among shares moving on corporate news, SunEdison Inc. rose 5.3 percent, trimming gains of more than 33 percent, after its $1.9 billion deal to acquire Vivint Solar Inc. was canceled by the target. The move is a relief to SunEdison shareholders who balked at a plan to pay a 52 percent premium for Vivint and raised concerns about the amount of debt the company had taken on.

     Shake Shack Inc. fell 12 percent, the most since August, after slowing growth raised concerns about the burger chain’s lofty valuation. The company expects same-store sales to rise 2.5 percent to 3 percent in 2016, according to a statement on Monday. That compares with an increase of 13.3 percent in 2015.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

In your veins, and in mine, there is only one blood,

The same life that animates us all!

Since one unique mother begat us all,

Where did we learn to divide ourselves?

Kabir

As ever,
 

Carolann

 

A weed is but an unloved flower.

 -Ella Wheeler Wilcox, 1850-1919

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7