August 5, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

LOW TIDE, LATE AUGUST

That last summer when everything was almost always terrible
we waded into the bay one late afternoon as the tide had almost finished
pulling all the way out

and sat down in the waste-deep water,
I floating on his lap facing him, my legs floating around him,
and we quietly coupled,

and stayed, loosely joined like that, not moving,
but being moved by the softly sucking and lapping water,
as the pulling out reached its limit and the tide began to flow slowly back
     again.

Some children ran after each other, squealing in the shallows, near but not
     too near.

I rested my chin on his shoulder looking toward the shore.
As he must have been looking over my shoulder, to where the water
     deepened
and the small boats tugged on their anchors.
                                                          –Marie Howe

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Former Brazilian volleyball player Isabel Barroso and archbishop Orani Joao Tempesta (l.) hold the Olympic torch next to the Christ the Redeemer statue in Rio de Janeiro on Friday. Pilar Olivares/Reuters

Christopher Burton of Australia stands with his horse Santano II during a Preliminary Equestrian inspection at the Olympic Equestrian Center on Friday. Tony Gentile/Reuters


Rafael Nadal of Spain, front, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga of France practice together on center court prior to the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Friday. Charles Krupa/AP

Market Closes for August 5th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

18543.53 +191.48

 

+1.04%

 
S&P 500 2181.12 +16.87

 

+0.78%

 
NASDAQ 5221.121 +54.874

 

+1.06%

 
TSX 14641.29 +112.51

 

+0.77%
 
 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16254.45 -0.44

 

 

HANG

SENG

22146.09 +313.86

 

+1.44%

 

SENSEX 28078.35 +363.98

 

+1.31%

 

FTSE 100 6793.47 +53.31

 

+0.79%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.069 1.052
 
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

1.681 1.640
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.5833 1.5059
 
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.3104 2.2568
 
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.75900 0.76805

 

US

$

1.31753 1.30200
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.46061 0.68465
 
 
US

$

1.10860 0.90204

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1340.40 1362.75
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 41.80 41.93

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose to the highest close in a year, amid earnings from Magna International Inc. and Telus Corp., and as the nation’s largest trading partner added more jobs than forecast in a sign of continued strength in the economy.

     The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.8 percent to 14,648.77 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, for a fifth weekly gain in six. Trading volume today was 6 percent lower than the 30-day average at the close. 

     U.S. payrolls jumped in July for a second month, adding 255,000 jobs to exceed all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of 89 economists, following a 292,000 gain in June that was revised higher. The unemployment rate held at 4.9 percent. Traders are now pricing in 46 percent odds the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in December, compared with 37 percent a day ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

     By contrast, Canada’s economy lost 31,200 jobs in July, compared with consensus expectations of a 10,000 gain, while the jobless rate rose to 6.9 percent. In a separate report, Canada’s trade deficit also hit records in the second quarter, including a greater-than-estimated C$3.6 billion gap in June.

     “We didn’t think we would see a quick rebound in the second half for Canada,” said Frank Maeba, managing partner at Breton Hill Capital in Toronto. His firm manages about C$1.4 billion. “These jobs numbers don’t help accelerate the rebound. Energy has been a drag and we’ve also seen volatility in housing prices.” The U.S. remains a bright spot in global markets, and Maeba expects a “general grind higher” for U.S. equities barring any significant macro shocks.

     Magna International Inc. increased 5.5 percent, the most since February, to lead consumer discretionary stocks higher as the group jumped 1.8 percent. Magna reported second-quarter sales of $9.44 billion, ahead of estimates, while also raising its forecast for 2016 European light vehicle units. Nine of 10 industries in the S&P/TSX advanced. Gold tumbled the most in 10 weeks to lead a 1.1 percent decline in raw-materials producers.

     Telus Corp. increased 2 percent, the biggest gain since February, after boosting the lower end of its 2016 revenue outlook. The telecommunications company topped earnings estimates as it added more customers in the quarter. Bombardier Inc., meanwhile, lost 0.5 percent after reporting wider-than- expected losses in the quarter amid rising costs for increased production of its new C Series jetliner.

     The Canadian equity benchmark is up 13 percent in 2016, rebounding from a slump last year that was the worst for the S&P/TSX since the 2008 financial crisis. The rally has made Canadian stocks more expensive than their U.S. peers, with a price- earnings ratio of 23.1 for the S&P/TSX, about 13 percent higher than the S&P 500 Index.

     Mining and energy stocks have propelled Canada to the second-best performance among developed markets this year, trailing only New Zealand fueled by a rally in commodities prices from gold and crude to base metals.

US

By Oliver Renick and Joseph Ciolli

     (Bloomberg) — Signs U.S. hiring remains robust and one of the best earnings seasons for technology stocks since 2008 pushed the Nasdaq Composite Index to a record close for the first time in a year, joining the S&P 500 Index at an all-time high.

     The gauge rallied for the eighth time in nine days and capped a sixth straight weekly advance, the longest since November. Since firms started reporting earnings a month ago, companies from EBay Inc. to Seagate Technology Plc and Biogen Inc. have jumped more than 20 percent.

     With Friday’s advance, the Nasdaq is the last major U.S. index to come full circle since the selloff that ripped global equities starting last summer. From its high on July 20, 2015, the gauge slid as much as 18 percent over the next seven months, narrowly avoiding a bear market.

     The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.1 percent to 5,221.12 at 4 p.m. in New York, surpassing its previous record by about two points. The S&P 500increased 0.9 percent to 2,182.87, for a third consecutive advance. The benchmark rose 0.4 percent for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 191.48 points, or 1 percent, to 18,543.53, for just its second gain in nine sessions. About 6.9 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, in line with the three-month average.

     “These are good numbers across the board,” Darrell Cronk, president of Wells Fargo Investment Institute in New York, said by phone. “I don’t think it brings the Fed back to the table for September, but there are more people entering the workforce which is healthy. The story with these numbers is higher equity prices, higher yield and higher dollar.”

     A report today showed payrolls climbed by 255,000 in July, exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists, following a 292,000 gain in June that was a bit larger than previously estimated. The jobless rate held at 4.9 percent, and wage growth offered more promising signs of acceleration, with average hourly earnings rising the most since April.

     Traders had pushed out their expectations on the timing for higher borrowing costs following a weaker-than-forecast reading last week on U.S. growth and yesterday’s Bank of England interest-rate cut. Following the jobs data, the first month with at least even odds for a Federal Reserve rate hike is now March 2017, versus November of next year before the report. Chances for a move next month rose to 28 percent from 18 percent yesterday.

     “This number confirms the broader economy is on firm footing, and the market reaction higher is predictable,” said Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based money manager at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $170 billion. “It’s still likely that the Fed will raise interest rates, but not until after the election. Monetary policy from the BOJ and BOE is doing the Fed’s job right now, giving the Fed a little more runway.”

     Speculation that central banks will remain supportive of markets and better-than-estimated corporate earnings have boosted equities to all-time highs, after brief but sharp losses spurred by the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union. A period of relative calm has also since permeated the equity market, with the CBOE Volatility Index marking a two-year low, 34 percent below its five-year average. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX sank 8.3 percent Friday to 11.39.

     The S&P 500 had hovered in a narrow range since a succession of all-time highs in mid-July, with declines in crude and lackluster consumer spending data stoking investor anxiety earlier this week. The stronger-than-forecast jobs report alleviated those concerns, lifting the gauge back to a fresh record. The index has rallied 19 percent since hitting a 22- month low back in February.

     With the earnings season more than three-quarters of the way through, about 77 percent of S&P 500 firms that have reported so far beat profit projections and 56 percent exceeded sales forecasts. Analysts have tempered their estimates for a decline in second-quarter net income at the index’s members to 2.7 percent, from 5.8 percent less than a month ago.

     Boosting the Nasdaq today, Priceline Group Inc. advanced 4 percent after its quarterly profit topped estimates as the number of hotel rooms booked through its websites increased and the impact of terrorism on tourism to Europe was muted. Kraft Heinz Co. rose 3.8 percent after its earnings also exceeded forecasts, as cost cuts helped bolster margins. Technology heavyweights Apple Inc., Intel Corp. and Microsoft Corp. increased at least 1 percent.

     Microsoft and Intel are among the biggest pillars of the Nasdaq’s advance since its last record in July 2015, with the two up at least 20 percent. The strongest contributor to hoisting the index was Amazon.com Inc., with a 57 percent increase. Another big benefactor, Facebook Inc. has risen 28 percent, to its own all-time high today.

     Banks rallied Friday to lead financial shares in the S&P 500 to their biggest gain in nearly a month, up 1.9 percent. Among the index’s 10 main industries, consumer discretionary, technology and industrial stocks increased at least 1 percent. Utilities and phone companies slipped.

     Lenders posted their strongest advance since June 28, as the employment report helped send Treasury yields to their steepest climb in three weeks, brightening prospects for a boost to earnings from higher rates. Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. rose at least 3.9 percent. Regional banks Zions Bancorporation and KeyCorp. surged more than 4.1 percent.

     Insurers also jumped on speculation higher rates will benefit earnings, particularly after MetLife Inc. tumbled yesterday following weaker-than-forecast results. Its shares rebounded 4.1 percent Friday, while Lincoln National Corp. and Prudential Financial Inc. added more than 4.3 percent.

     Auto-related stocks trimmed weekly losses after the jobs data, led by parts suppliers Delphi Automotive Plc and BorgWarner Inc. which gained more than 2 percent. General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. climbed at least 0.9 percent. The carmakers were hammered on Tuesday, falling more than 4 percent, after their July sales disappointed.

     Bristol-Meyers Squibb Co. weighed on health-care, with its 16 percent plunge the biggest in 16 years. The company said the use of its drug Opdivo as a single agent for lung cancer failed in a trial that would have been the basis for widely expanding use of the treatment. Merck & Co., maker of Opdivo’s main competitor Keytruda, gained 10 percent, the most since 2009.

 

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

The fact that there are so many men still alive in the world

shows that it is based not on the force of arms but on the force of truth or love.

Therefore, the greatest and most impeachable evidence of the success of this force

is to be found in the fact that, in spite of all the wars of the world,

it still lives on.

Mahatma Gandhi

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

 

Death is a challenge.  It tells us not to waste time…

It tells us to tell each other right now that we love each other.

                                               -Leo Buscaglia, 1924-1998

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

August 4, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

BIRTHDAY: Percy Bysshe Shelley, August 4, 1792

Percy Bysshe Shelley was a radical, championing the likes of Tom Paine and getting expelled from Oxford in 1811 for The Necessity of Atheism, his tract against compulsory Christianity.  His short life seemed like a mad dash against the conventions of the day – both political and social – as he took up the causes of working class education, free  love, non-violent protest, vegetarianism, and electoral reform.  Among his most well known works are To the West Wind, Queen Mab, To a Skylark, and Adonais, an elegy for Keats.  In 1822, Shelley was lost at sea in Italy, where he had moved with his family and his friends, Leigh Hunt and Lord Byron,  His body washed ashore and was burned on the beach in the presence of his companions.  His remains were later buried in Rome.

OZYMANDIAS
    BY Percy Bysshe Shelley
I met a traveler from an antique land, 
Who said—“Two vast and trunkless legs of stone 
Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand, 
Half sunk a shattered visage lies, whose frown, 
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command, 
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read 
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things, 
The hand that mocked them, and the heart that fed; 
And on the pedestal, these words appear: 
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings; 
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair! 
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay 
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare 
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”

BIRTHDAY: Louis Armstrong, August 4, 1900

Jazz musician extraordinaire; asked to define jazz, Armstrong reportedly replied, “Man, if you gotta ask, you’ll never know.”
WHAT A WONDERFUL WORLD
…I see friends shakin’ hands, sayin’
“How do you do?”
They’re really saying “I love you”…

                      -by Louis Armstrong

On Aug. 4, 1914, Britain declared war on Germany while the United States proclaimed its neutrality.= Go to article »

August 4, 1960 – Commons passes John Diefenbaker’s Canadian Bill of Rights.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A woman carries a sack outside a market during heavy rains in Chandigarh, India, Thursday. Ajay Verma/Reuters


People are looking at a fresco painted on grass with biodegradable paint, representing a Swiss shepherd on 30,000 square feet by French artist Saype, Thursday in Leysin, Switzerland. Jean-Christophe Bott/Keystone/AP


Market Closes for August 4th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

18352.05 -2.95

 

-0.02%

 
S&P 500 2164.26 +0.47

 

+0.02%

 
NASDAQ 5166.246 +6.509

 

+0.13%

 
TSX 14526.27 +14.22

 

+0.10%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16254.89 +171.78

 

+1.07%
 
 
HANG

SENG

21832.23 +93.11
 
 
+0.43%
 
 
SENSEX 27714.37 +16.86

 

+0.06%

 

FTSE 100 6740.16 +105.76

 

+1.59%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.052 1.100
 
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

1.640 1.677
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.5059 1.5403

 

U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.2568 2.2935
 
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.76805 0.76497

 

US

$

1.30200 1.30725
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.44900 0.69013

 

US

$

1.11290 0.89855

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1362.75 1358.90
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 41.93 40.83
 
 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks edged higher, as energy producers climbed with crude oil to offset declines paced by Manulife Financial Corp. after its earnings disappointed.

     The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.1 percent to 14,528.78 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, after falling as much as 0.3 percent. The benchmark is less than 1 percent from a one-year high reached two weeks ago. Trading volume today was 3.2 percent lower than the 30-day average at the close. 

     Manulife fell 5.4 percent for the seventh drop in eight sessions, as investors weighed earnings from more than a dozen companies today. The nation’s largest life insurer reported second-quarter earnings short of analysts’ estimates as hedging costs and lower investment gains hampered growth. Financial shares in the benchmark lost 0.5 percent.

     Energy companies in the benchmark surged 1 percent, as crude futures in New York rallied 2.7 percent to climb above $41 a barrel. Veresen Inc. jumped 11 percent, to the highest level since October, after the energy infrastructure company said it was pursuing a sale of its power generation business. Enbridge Inc. added 1.5 percent.

     BCE Inc., Canada’s largest phone company, rose 0.9 percent after profit topped predictions as it increased spending to fuel subscriber growth. TMX Group Ltd., owner of the Toronto Stock Exchange, jumped the most since March to a record close after posting record quarterly sales. Cott Corp. surged 9.6 percent as the beverage maker agreed to buy S&D Coffee Inc. while earnings fell just short of expectations.

     Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. tumbled 3.1 percent, the most in almost six weeks, after Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management LP announced it is unloading its entire stake in the railway. The move comes almost five years after Ackman sparked a turnaround at the company and becoming its biggest shareholder.

     The Canadian equity benchmark is hanging onto a 12 percent gain in 2016, rebounding from a slump last year that was the worst for the S&P/TSX since the 2008 financial crisis. The rally has made Canadian stocks more expensive than their U.S. peers, with a price-earnings ratio of 23 for the S&P/TSX, about 13 percent higher than the S&P 500 Index.

     Mining and energy stocks have propelled Canada to the second-best performance among developed markets this year, trailing only New Zealand fueled by a rally in commodities prices from gold and crude to base metals.

     The S&P/TSX Gold Index added 0.6 percent as gold prices rose to near the highest in three weeks after the Bank of England unveiled an “exceptional” stimulus package including the first rate cut in seven years as policy makers slashed growth forecasts after Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.

US

By Anna-Louise Jackson

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks closed little changed Thursday, as investors looked past increased stimulus by the Bank of England to Friday’s jobs report for clues on the strength of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s next moves.

     Mixed corporate earnings offered little direction. Ball Corp. surged the most since 1987 as its profit beat estimates, and Kellogg Co. added 1.7 percent after lifting its outlook. Tempering gains, fertilizer maker CF Industries Holdings Inc. saw its steepest drop in seven years after its results missed analysts’ predictions. MetLife Inc. tumbled 8.7 percent after its quarterly profit disappointed.

     The S&P 500 Index rose less than a point to 2,164.25 at 4 p.m. in New York, after weaving narrowly between gains and losses throughout the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.95 points to 18,352.05, and the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.1 percent. About 6.4 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 9 percent below the three-month average.

     “Tomorrow’s employment number is the catalyst for the market,” said Jim Davis, regional investment manager at the Private Client Reserve of US Bank, which oversees $128 billion. “We really need to see some economic growth in order to have more assurance that we’re going to have growing earnings in the second half of the year. The market has been driven by multiple expansion and that’s getting long in the tooth now.”

     The S&P 500 has hovered near a record in the past few weeks, and is trading at 18.4 times the projected earnings of its members, close to its highest in more than a decade. A batch of corporate earnings that exceeded expectations and speculation central banks will maintain loose monetary policies have helped underpin equities since the brief tumult that followed Britain’s vote to exit the European Union.

     The BOE cut interest rates for the first time since 2009 in a widely anticipated move to cushion the fallout from the Brexit decision. The central bank also plans to expand its balance sheet by $223 billion through the purchase of government and corporate bonds, as well as a lending program for banks. Following those moves, traders pushed out wagers on a Fed rate increase. The first month with at least even odds for a hike is September 2017, compared with June yesterday.

     Meanwhile, investors are looking for more tangible progress in the U.S. economy, with recent data including last week’s growth report damping optimism. A report today showed applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to a level that still underscores health in the job market. The Labor Department’s July payrolls data are due Friday, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicting 180,000 jobs were added, compared with 287,000 the month before.                      

     Quarterly earnings also remain an influence on sentiment. With more than three-quarters of S&P 500 companies having reported, 78 percent beat profit predictions and 57 percent topped sales forecasts. Analysts have tempered their estimatesfor a decline in second-quarter net income for index members to 3.2 percent from down 5.4 percent a month ago.

     In Thursday’s trading, raw-materials and technology companies were the strongest among the S&P 500’s 10 main groups, while financial and health-care shares lagged the most. The CBOE Volatility Index fell 3.4 percent to 12.42. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX is near a two-year low and 28 percent below its five-year average.

     A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. basket of most shorted stocks rose for the fifth time in six days. The gauge is up 20 percent since the two-day selloff that followed the Brexit vote.

     MetLife weighed on the financial group and flipped insurers into the worst performers among 24 S&P 500 industries, after the group posted the best gain yesterday following American International Group Inc.’s earnings. MetLife plans to cut expenses by 11 percent, which will include job reductions, as low interest rates squeeze investment income. Prudential Financial Inc. and Lincoln National Corp. lost more than 4 percent.

     Joining Ball Corp. to boost raw-materials shares, WestRock Co. gained 4.2 percent after its profit exceeded analysts’ forecasts. Monsanto Co. rose 2 percent as people familiar with the matter said Bayer AG is examining its financial accounts, a crucial step that could pave the way for Bayer to raise its $55 billion takeover offer.

     Tech companies in the benchmark advanced 0.5 percent, with the group closing at the highest level since September 21, 2000. Today’s climb was paced by Facebook Inc.’s 1.5 percent gain, while Microsoft Corp., Intel Corp. and Visa Inc. all added more than 0.7 percent.

     Among shares moving on earnings news, TripAdvisor Inc. slumped the most in six months, dropping 8.5 percent. The company’s results missed estimates as its shift into mobile and instant bookings has yet to generate the expected sales uptick.

     First Solar Inc. slid 11 percent to a 10-month low as a strategic shift spurred concern about the biggest U.S. solar company’s revenue growth. Chief Executive Officer Mark Widmar has said he expects sales of panels to third parties to be a major source of growth, meaning more competition with Chinese manufacturers.

     Realogy Holdings Corp., owner of brokerage brands Coldwell Banker and Century 21, dropped nearly 15 percent to a record low as sluggish luxury home sales hurt the firm’s earnings. SeaWorld Entertainment Inc. tumbled 13 percent, the steepest in two years, after reporting lower theme-park attendance in Orlando, Florida, and cutting its earnings outlook for the year.

     Harman International Inc. rallied 7 percent to a three- month high, and Parker Hannifin Corp. gained 4.6 percent, the most since 2014, after the companies’ quarterly profits and sales beat estimates.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

It is quite evident that our world is useful and that it provides for our needs,

but our connection to it does not end there.

We are united to it by a connection much larger and more truthful than that of necessity.

Our soul is drawn to it; our love of life is in reality a desire I us to seek our connection with this universe.

And this connection is love.

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

One of the greatest victories you can gain over someone

is to beat him at politeness.

                                        -Josh Billings, 1818-1885

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

August 3, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

August, from CD’s Urban Almanac:

The days seem to shorten.  The nights, deep and warm, grow longer.  Tree frogs and crickets echo in the darkness.  Summer is short.  Apples are on the trees.  The first fruits are gathered.  It’s the Celtic feast of Lugh, the God of Light, Christian Lammastide or Loaf Mass, when the first grains are ground and baked and placed upon the altar.  For the Celts, Lugh ordained the feast be held in honor of his mother Tailltiu, the Earth Mother.  Christians, too, celebrate Mary, Mother of Compassion, who carried all things in her heart and gave birth to the light.  What gifts!  What freedom!  This is the time to put on the garments of the spirit, to hold memories in our hearts.  Something is germinating secretly, silently within us.  Tread softly and take care of yourself and the world so that what you are carrying might come to birth.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

As campers bed down for the night along Putah Creek, the Cold fire burns slowly downhill on the Solano and Napa County line near Lake Berryessa, Calif., on Tuesday. Kent Porter/The Press Democrat/AP

 


A gallery assistant poses with the work ‘Childe Harold’s Pilgrimage,’ by British artist JMW Turner, during a photo-call for a major new display of his work at Tate Britain in London on Wednesday. Neil Hall/Reuters

Market Closes for August 3rd, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

18355.00 +41.23

 

+0.23%

 
S&P 500 2162.06 +5.03

 

+0.23%

 
NASDAQ 5159.738 +22.006

 

+0.43%

 
TSX 14518.38 +41.37

 

+0.29%
 
 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16083.11 -308.34
 
 
-1.88%
 
 
HANG

SENG

21739.12 -390.02

 

-1.76%

 

SENSEX 27697.51 -284.20

 

-1.02%

 

FTSE 100 6634.40 -11.00

 

-0.17%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.100 1.078
CND.

30 Year

Bond

1.677 1.674
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.5403 1.5558
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.2935 2.3069
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.76497 0.76319

 

US

$

1.30725 1.31029
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.45761 0.68605

 

US

$

1.11502 0.89684

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1358.90 1363.75
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 40.83 39.51
 
 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Energy producers drove Canadian stocks higher, as crude prices climbed the most in three weeks after U.S. gasoline stockpiles saw the biggest drop since April.

     The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.2 percent to 14,512.05 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, after closing Tuesday at the lowest since July 11. Trading volume today was 7.8 percent below the 30-day average at the close. 

     Energy companies in the benchmark surged 1.4 percent, the biggest contributor to gains in the S&P/TSX as six of 10 industries advanced. Husky Energy Inc. increased 6.9 percent, the most since January, after resolving a dispute with Cnooc Ltd. over prices from an offshore Chinese energy project by lowering prices. Suncor Energy Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. added at least 1.4 percent.

     Crude for September delivery jumped 3.3 percent to close at $40.83 a barrel in New York, the biggest gain since July 12. Gasoline inventories dropped 3.26 million barrels last week, an Energy Information Administration report showed. Refineries’ crude demand jumped 266,000 barrels a day from the prior week.

     Saputo Inc. rose 5.3 percent, the most since December 2009. TD Securities analyst Michael Van Aelst raised his rating for the stock to buy from hold after the dairy company posted fiscal first-quarter earnings Tuesday that topped the highest analysts’ estimates while raising its dividend.

     Brookfield Asset Management Inc. climbed 1.3 percent after its infrastructure arm, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP, said it plans to raise its distribution as well as a three-for- two unit split. Brookfield Infrastructure added 0.7 percent.

     Concordia International Corp. added 1.6 percent to help lift the health-care group after confirming that a strategic review of its options is ongoing. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. bounced 5.3 percent to snap a three-day, 10 percent drop.

     Barrick Gold Corp. and Franco-Nevada Corp. lost at least 1.1 percent, leading a 1 percent drop in raw-materials producers, as gold and silver futures prices retreated. Mining stocks fell as Rio Tinto Group Plc, the world’s second-largest mining company, posted its worst profit since 2004 due to depressed prices for iron ore, aluminum and copper.

     The Canadian equity benchmark is hanging onto a nearly 12 percent gain in 2016, rebounding from a slump last year that was the worst for the S&P/TSX since the 2008 financial crisis. The rally has made Canadian stocks more expensive than their U.S. peers, with a price-earnings ratio of 22.9 for the S&P/TSX, about 13 percent higher than the S&P 500 Index.

     Mining and energy stocks have propelled Canada to the second-best performance among developed markets this year, trailing only New Zealand fueled by a rally in commodities prices from gold and crude to base metals.

US

By Anna-Louise Jackson

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks advanced, with the S&P 500 Index halting a two-day decline, as crude oil’s biggest gain in three weeks spurred a rally in energy producers while corporate earnings helped boost financial companies.

     A late-day surge pushed equities higher, with oil and gas companies rising the most in three weeks as crude jumped 3.3 percent on weekly supply data. American International Group Inc. posted its biggest gain since 2011 after its profit beat estimates. Consumer-staples shares slumped and health-care fell for a second day, with Biogen Inc. losing 2.7 percent amid doubts it could be a takeover target. Pfizer Inc. and Merck & Co. slid at least 1.1 percent.

     The S&P 500rose 0.3 percent to 2,163.79 at 4 p.m. in New York, rebounding after its steepest decline in almost a month yesterday. The gauge traded in the narrowest range in two weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 41.23 points, or 0.2 percent, to 18,355.00, snapping a seven-session losing streak. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.4 percent. A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. basket of most shorted shares saw the biggest gain in five weeks, rising to a nine-month high.

     “There’s slow movement in a market that’s looking for a reason to go up or go down — it just hasn’t found any,” said Jeff Carbone, managing partner of Cornerstone Financial Partners, which oversees almost $1.1 billion in assets in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We’re seeing a little bit of a correlation back to oil in the markets coming back in play. We haven’t seen that breakout that would suggest the market is based on fundamentals, it’s still very tied to central banks.”

     At 18.3 times this year’s projected earnings, the S&P 500 is still trading near its highest multiple in more than a decade. Some stronger-than-estimated financial results and speculation that central banks will maintain loose monetary policies have helped underpin equities near record levels.

     But investors are looking for clearer signs of economic progress after last week’s disappointing growth report, and will continue to assess data for clues on the strength of the U.S. A gauge today of private-payroll growth last month indicated the labor market was holding up in spite of broader growth numbers that indicate a slowing in the economy. A separate report showed growth at service providers cooled in July after reaching a seven-month high.

     Amid the uncertainty, traders have pushed back their expectations for the next Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. The first month with at least even odds for a hike is June 2017, compared with February a week ago. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said today higher borrowing costs could be warranted this year as the economy picks up steam, even though he’s still worried that inflation is too low.

     Earnings also remain in focus. S&P 500 companies posting results this week include Kellogg Co., Viacom Inc. and Priceline Group Inc. About 57 percent of index members that have reported so far beat sales projections, while 79 percent topped profit estimates. Analysts estimate net income at S&P 500 companies fell 3.2 percent in the second quarter.

     Among shares moving on corporate results, Qorvo Inc. dropped 10 percent, the steepest in a year, after its gross margin view for the current quarter trailed estimates, even as its profit and sales outlooks exceeded forecasts. Kate Spade & Co. plunged 18 percent after its quarterly profit missed estimates and the handbag maker cut its full-year outlook.

     Intercontinental Exchange Inc. jumped 5.3 percent to a record as its results topped estimates. Time Warner Inc. added 2.7 percent as its profit exceeded analysts’ predictions and the company bought a 10 percent stake in Hulu LLC.

     “I don’t see a huge move to the upside, but because of all the skepticism around I don’t see a huge move to the downside either, so I think we’re stuck in the trading range,” said Benno Galliker, a trader at Luzerner Kantonalbank AG in Lucerne, Switzerland. “After all the talk about the banks in Europe and the lower oil price, it really makes it hard for the market to move much higher in the short term. It’s a negative attitude toward the market and the economy from all over.”

     In Wednesday’s trading, six of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries advanced, led by gains of more than 0.9 percent in financial and energy stocks. Consumer staples, utilities, health-care and phone companies all declined. About 6.7 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 6 percent below the three-month average.

     The CBOE Volatility Index fell 3.8 percent to 12.86. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX yesterday capped its biggest two-day climb since the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union.

     Insurers paced gains in the financial group after AIG’s results and its plan to buy back $3 billion of stock. MetLife Inc. and Prudential Financial Inc. climbed more than 2.9 percent. Lenders marked their strongest session in three weeks as Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. increased at least 2 percent.

     Marathon Petroleum Corp. and Valero Energy Corp. advanced more than 4.5 percent as crude rose for just the second time in 10 days. A weekly report showed gasoline inventories fell the most since April and refineries increased operating rates. Williams Cos. rallied 7.1 percent, bringing its two-day gain to 14 percent. Raymond James Financial Inc. upgraded the shares to the equivalent of buy from neutral.

     Consumer-staples companies retreated for a second day, with Altria Group Inc. down 1.4 percent while General Mills Inc. sank 1.7 percent, the most in more than two months. The group is seeing signs of investor pessimism. Short interest on the SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF is at 7.9 percent of shares outstanding, the highest in more than a year. Traders also pulled $606 million from the fund in July, the second-biggest monthly outflow since March 2015.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

The whole universe is to us a writing of the Infinite in the language of the finite.

Swami Vivekananda

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Old age is the most unexpected of all things

that happen to a man.

                        -Leon Trotsky, 1879-1940

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

August 2, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Just back from a terrific summer week in Newport, Rhode Island.  It is such a beautiful place – especially if you like history and sailing as much as Gary and I do!  There are so, so many sail boats that call Newport home.  You can see them anchored offshore for as far as they eye can see.  We were invited to sail on a 62-foot Oyster (owned by someone who lives in Texas, but keeps his boat in Newport!) and went with them to see the start of the start of the 10-metre racing regatta, which was quite a sight – such magnificent yachts, some decades old that had been fully restored.  You can also book sailing trips on former America’s Cup contenders, which we did as well – lots of fun – interesting people to meet.

The Preservation Society of Newport County does the best job possible of preserving the mansions and old historic buildings that have stood there – some  since the seventeenth century.   It is possible to tour many of the mansions – a totally gilded age in America.  Perhaps the most impressive is Breakers, the Vanderbilt summer home….er  – mansion.  The childhood home of Jacqueline Bouvier, Hammersmith Farm, where she and John F. Kennedy had their wedding reception, is  unfortunately, not open to the public, but St. Mary’s Roman Catholic Church, where they married is , of course.

There are also lots of festivals in Newport – this past weekend was the famed Newport Jazz Festival.

Stopped in NYC for a couple of days on the way to Newport and saw the other mega-Tony award winner this year – Humans.  It is amazing – worth a trip just to see it!

Oh summer!  How I love summer…

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

On Tuesday, British Airways Global Ambassador Tina Burton looks out of the new British Airways i360 tower in Brighton, southeast England, as the “vertical pier in the sky” is set to give tourists a new view of Brighton’s historic seafront. Standing at 531ft (156 metres) tall, the viewing tower affords panoramic views of up to 26 miles of the surrounding south coast and will open its doors to visitors this week. Steve Parsons/AP


Members of the German men’s track cycling team round the track during a training session inside the Rio Olympic Velodrome in advance of the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Tuesday. Patrick Semansky/AP

Market Closes for August 2nd, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

18313.77 -90.74

 

-0.49%

 
S&P 500 2157.03 -13.81

 

-0.64%

 
NASDAQ 5137.734 -46.461

 

-0.90%

 
TSX 14477.01 -105.73

 

-0.73%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16391.45 -244.32

 

-1.47%

 

HANG

SENG

22129.14 +237.77

 

+1.09%

 

SENSEX 27981.71 -21.41

 

-0.08%

 

FTSE 100 6645.40 -48.55

 

-0.73%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.078 1.027
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

1.674 1.641
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.5558 1.4531
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.3069 2.1827
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.76319 0.76734

 

US

$

1.31029 1.30320
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.47061 0.67999

 

US

$

1.12231 0.89102

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1363.75 1342.00
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 39.51 41.60

 

Market Commentary:

Number of the Day

¥28 trillion

The size of a government stimulus package approved by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet Tuesday. Equivalent to $274.4 billion, it’s the latest effort to jolt the nation’s sluggish economy.

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell in their first day of trading in August, sliding the most since the aftermath of the U.K. secession vote, as energy producers tumbled after crude prices dropped Monday into a bear market.

     The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.7 percent to 14,477.01 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, to the lowest level in three weeks after capping its best month since July. Trading volume Tuesday was 9.3 percent higher than the 30-day average. Equity markets were closed on Monday for a holiday.

     Energy companies sank 1.7 percent as a group as eight of 10 industries in the S&P/TSX retreated. Suncor Energy Inc. and Cenovus Energy Inc. fell more than 3.1 percent to lead producers lower. Crude futures settled at the lowest level in almost four months, falling below $40 a barrel to cap a decline of more than 20 percent from a June high.

     Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Nova Scotia retreated at least 1 percent to lead the nation’s largest lenders lower. Canada is in the midst of one of its weakest expansions ever, with growth almost entirely dependent on bank lending and the hot Toronto and Vancouver housing markets, according to Statistics Canada data. Canada’s gross domestic product contracted at the fastest pace in more than seven years, data showed Friday.

     Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. fell 4.6 percent for a third day of losses, dropping to the lowest level in almost a month. The drugmaker is expected to lower earnings forecasts, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. Smaller peer Concordia International Corp. sank 17 percent, to the lowest close since April 2014, with CIBC World Markets analyst Prakash Gowd ’skeptical’ Concordia will be able to seal the deal on its exploration of strategic options.

     The Canadian benchmark is hanging onto an 11 percent gain in 2016, rebounding from a slump last year that was the worst for the S&P/TSX since the 2008 financial crisis. The rally has made Canadian stocks more expensive than their U.S. peers, with a price-earnings ratio of 22.9 for the S&P/TSX, about 13 percent higher than the S&P 500 Index.

     Mining and energy stocks have propelled Canada to the second-best performance among developed markets this year, trailing only New Zealand fueled by a rally in commodities prices from gold and crude to base metals.

     Silver Wheaton Corp. climbed 5.1 percent to the highest level since November 2012 after agreeing to spend $800 million to increase its share of gold production from a Vale SA copper and gold mine in Brazil. The company will get 25 percent of the mine’s gold production, adding to the 50 percent it already gets. Silver Wheaton estimates the mine to have a 50-year life.

US

By Anna-Louise Jackson and Bailey Lipschultz

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks declined the most in four weeks, as sliding crude prices and lackluster consumer spending data revived anxiety that global growth will falter.

     Equities narrowly avoided their worst day since the selloff following Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, with automakers pummeled as sales disappointed while retailers had the steepest drop in five weeks. Pfizer Inc. fell 2.5 percent after leaving its full-year forecast unchanged, even as quarterly profit and sales exceeded predictions, and Apple Inc. lost 1.5 percent to weigh on the technology group.

     The S&P 500 Index retreated 0.6 percent to 2,157.03 at 4 p.m. in New York, marking the first back-to-back declines since the Brexit vote. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 90.74 points, or 0.5 percent, to 18,313.77 as the gauge dropped for a seventh day, the longest in nearly a year. The Nasdaq Composite Index sank 0.9 percent, after coming within 1 percent of a record yesterday.

     “There really isn’t reason to keep bidding the market higher right now,” said Malcolm Polley, who oversees $1.3 billion as president and chief investment officer at Stewart Capital Advisors LLC in Indiana, Pennsylvania. “A pullback in the market is necessary just from a valuation standpoint. Our expectation for the year is we’ll be flat-to-down in the equity markets.”

     At 18.3 times this year’s projected earnings, the S&P 500 is trading near its highest multiple in more than a decade. Still, stronger-than-estimated earnings results and speculation that central banks will maintain loose monetary policies to buttress growth have helped to underpin equities as they hover near record levels.

     Better-than-forecast earnings and economic data helped support the S&P 500’s run to its first all-time high in more than 13 months, with the index rebounding as much as 8.7 percent after the Brexit vote rattled markets worldwide. The rally lost steam last week, though, as a report showed weaker-than-expected growth in the second quarter. Manufacturing also expanded at a slower pace in July, according to data released on Monday.

     Traders have pushed back their expectations for the next Federal Reserve interest-rate increase, with the first month with at least even odds for a hike now September 2017, compared with February a week ago. The Fed last week held rates unchanged as forecast but reiterated its intention to raise them gradually.

     With investors looking for signs that growth is picking up, a report today showed consumer purchases climbed a bit more than anticipated in June, exceeding a gain in incomes that prompted American households to tap into savings. Data on employment, durable-goods orders and factory activity are due later this week.

     More than two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have reported this earnings season, and about 80 percent have topped profit estimates while 57 percent beat sales projections. Analysts predict net income for index members fell 3.2 percent in the second quarter, better than estimates for a 5.8 percent contraction in mid-July.

     Among companies posting results, Mallinckrodt Plc surged 14 percent for its biggest gain in three years after raising its profit outlook. Discovery Communications Inc. posted its strongest rally in five years, and CVS Health Corp. climbed 4.9 percent after their profits beat estimates. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. tumbled 6.3 percent, and Emerson Electric Co. slid 4.9 percent after the companies lowered their 2016 outlooks.

     “When you consider that U.S. equities have had quite a good run lately and they’re just so expensive right now, it seems like a sensible time to take some profits and sit the market out,” said Heinz-Gerd Sonnenschein, an equity strategist at Deutsche Postbank AG in Bonn, Germany.                         

     In Tuesday’s trading, the CBOE Volatility Index rose for a second day, up 7.5 percent to 13.37, after jumping as much as 14 percent. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX fell 24 percent last month, the most since March. About 7.5 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 6 percent above the three-month average.

     Nine of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries sank, led by a declines 1.5 percent decline in consumer-discretionary shares. Industrial, financial and tech companies dropped at least 0.8 percent. Energy producers rose 0.9 percent after briefly erasing a 1.4 percent climb as a rally in crude faded.

     “It really isn’t one specific thing that’s dragging the market lower,” said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities Inc. in Los Angeles. “It’s a little bit of carryover from the weakness we’ve seen in oil — the market’s been incredibly resilient given the 20 percent correction we’ve seen in the price of oil in the last month and yet the equity markets have not pulled back much.”

     Retailers and automakers in the S&P 500 led the consumer- discretionary group to the biggest slide since June 27, which was the second of the two-day Brexit selloff. Retailers fell from an all-time high reached yesterday, paced by Amazon.com Inc.’s 0.9 percent decline, while Target Corp. and CarMax Inc. decreased more than 2.1 percent. Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. lost at least 4.3 percent as their July sales missed analysts’ estimates. Ford shares sank to the lowest since February.                         

     Delta Air Lines Inc. dragged down industrial stocks, declining 7.8 percent after a closely watched measure of revenue fell 7 percent in July, due in part to too many empty seats on transatlantic flights. JetBlue Airways Corp. and American Airlines Group Inc. tumbled at least 5.8 percent, as the Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index also slumped 5.8 percent to a three-week low.

     Financial shares in the benchmark capped a third straight decline, the longest in seven weeks. Citigroup Inc. fell 1 percent as overseas risks continue to mount in the aftermath of Brexit. American Express Co. lost 1 percent, and mall operator Simon Property Group Inc. sank 1.8 percent after being downgraded to the equivalent of neutral from buy at RBC Capital Markets.

     Health-care companies pared losses in the late afternoon as Biogen Inc. jumped 9.4 percent for its strongest gain in four months. The Wall Street Journal reported that Merck & Co. and Allergan Plc have each considered a takeover of the biotechnology company.

     Energy producers rallied in the final hour of trading, despite crude oil falling for the eighth time in nine days. Williams Cos. rose 6.4 percent, its best day since May 16, after becoming the latest pipeline company to cut its quarterly dividend in the face of low energy prices and questions about its strategy as a standalone company.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

The key to cosmic awareness, to a consciousness of God,

is in the understanding of the soul.

Rabindranath Tagore

 

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Life’s a voyage that’s homeward bound.

                      -Herman Melville, 1819-1891

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

July 29, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Carolann is out of the office, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A hummingbird flies in the sanctuary El Paraiso de los Colibries near Cali, Colombia, on Thursday. Jaime Saldarriaga/Reuters


The Christ the Redeemer statue stands atop Corcovado Mountain at dawn in Rio de Janeiro on Friday. Felipe Dana/AP

Market Closes for July 29th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

18432.24 -24.11

 

-0.13%

 
S&P 500 2173.60 +3.54

 

+0.16%

 
NASDAQ 5162.133 +7.150

 

+0.14%

 
TSX 14582.74 +30.02

 

+0.21%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16569.27 +92.43
 
 
+0.56%
 
 
HANG

SENG

21891.37 -282.97
 
 
-1.28%
 
 
SENSEX 28051.86 -156.76
 
 
-0.56%
 
 
FTSE 100 6724.43 +3.37
 
 
+0.05%
 
 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.027 1.067
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

1.641 1.685
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.4531 1.5027
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.1827 2.2255
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.76734 0.76012
 
 
US

$

1.30320 1.31559
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.45611 0.68676
 
 
US

$

1.11733 0.89499

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1342.00 1341.75
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 41.60 41.14
 
 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks pared a weekly decline as energy producers advanced after crude oil rebounded from the precipice of a bear market. The nation’s equity benchmark completed a monthly gain, after swinging between gains and losses, with disappointing economic data and earnings setting the tone on the last day of July trading.

     The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.2 percent to 14,582.74 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The equity gauge rose 3.7 percent in July, its best month since March. Trading volume was 12 percent lower than the 30-day average. Equity markets will be closed on Monday for a holiday. 

     The Canadian benchmark is up 12 percent in 2016, one of the best gains among developed markets this year. The rally has made Canadian stocks more expensive than their U.S. peers, with a price-earnings ratio of 23.1 for the S&P/TSX, about 14 percent higher than the S&P 500 Index.

     Seven of the 10 main groups in the index retreated Friday, as data showed Canada’s gross domestic product contracted at the fastest pace in more than seven years in May after wildfires curbed Alberta oil production. In the U.S., the economy expanded slower than forecast, driving the biggest drop in the U.S. dollar in almost two months and boosting commodities prices.

     Even with oil-sands production having recovered since the May wildfires, “the underlying weakness of the economy means that second-quarter GDP still contracted between 1 percent and 1.5 percent,” said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics in a note to clients. “With the U.S. economy clearly struggling too, hopes of a non-energy export led recovery in Canada look less realistic now.”

     Energy producers bolstered gains Friday. The group rose 1.2 percent, reversing an earlier decline of as much as 0.7 percent. Enbridge Inc. climbed 3 percent after reporting second-quarter earnings just short of expectations. Crude rebounded, rising as much as 1.2 percent, pulling back from earlier losses that would have pushed prices into a bear market. Raw-materials producers climbed 1 percent led by gold and silver producers. The two industries account for about a third of S&P/TSX companies by market capitalization.

     The Canadian benchmark posted a fifth monthly gain in six, led by advances across every industry in the S&P/TSX except for energy producers. Technology stocks have the biggest increase in July at 9.2 percent, with Celestica Inc. and supply-chain company Kinaxis Inc. advancing at least 19 percent.

     Mining stocks are the top group in the S&P/TSX this year, up 61 percent so far in 2016, the best year-to-date performance for the group in at least 30 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

     Mining and energy stocks have propelled Canada to the second-best performance among developed markets this year with a 12 percent increase, trailing only New Zealand. The S&P/TSX has joined global markets extending gains this month following a brief post-Brexit vote swoon amid a stretch of solid U.S. economic data and improving earnings.

US

By Anna-Louise Jackson and Bailey Lipschultz

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks edged higher, with the S&P 500 Index capping a fifth monthly gain, after data showing the American economy grew slower than forecast last quarter gave the Federal Reserve no reason to accelerate its time table for higher interest rates. Earnings from Alphabet Inc. boosted technology shares.

     The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to 2,173.55 at 4 p.m. in New York, closing within two points of its record. The gauge climbed 3.6 percent in July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1 percent to 18,432, a fifth straight loss for the longest slide since June 15. The 30-stock index rose 2.8 percent in July, a sixth consecutive advance. The Nasdaq 100 Index rose 0.2 percent Friday, leaving it 7 percent higher in the month.

     The U.S. economy stumbled in the first half of 2016 as companies retrenched, leaving consumers to shoulder the burden of sustaining growth heading into the presidential election. That didn’t deter equity gains, with the S&P 500 overcoming the longest stretch without a record outside of a bear market since 1985 as central banks signaled additional stimulus and corporate earnings topped estimates.

     “The market seems to shed anything that would otherwise disrupt its desire to climb higher,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Philadelphia-based Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, which manages $54 billion. “While these numbers are a little bit in hindsight, you have to at least take into account their momentum and see that the validation for the market is that the economic situation is going to be sufficiently decent to improve the earnings picture going forward.”

     While the Federal Reserve earlier in the week held its rates unchanged as forecast, it reiterated its intention to raise rates only gradually. At the same time, the Bank of Japan on Friday damped expectations for looser policy by keeping its key monetary tools unchanged and saying it will mount a comprehensive review of its policy framework.

     The GDP data come as investors sift through one of the busiest weeks of the earnings season. Halfway through, more than 80 percent of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beat profit projections and almost 60 percent topped sales estimates. Analysts have eased their expectations for a drop in second-quarter earnings to 4.5 percent.

     Google parent Alphabet rose to the highest since December after its quarterly profit topped estimates. Amazon.com Inc. climbed after forecasting sales that may exceed analysts’ projections. Cigna Corp. declined after the health insurer reported quarterly earnings that missed estimates and cut its full-year forecast. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. each retreated after results disappointed.

 

Have a wonderful long weekend everyone.

 

Be magnificent!
 

“In order to carry a positive action we must develop here a positive vision.” Dalai Lama 

As ever,

 

Karen

 

“It is not in the stars to hold our destiny but in ourselves”. William Shakespeare 

 


Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

July 28, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Carolann is out of the office, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A woman looks at the painting ‘Wave’ by Ivan Aivazovsky in the Tretyakov Picture Gallery in Moscow on Thursday. Russian romantic painter Aivazovsky is considered one of the greatest marine artists in history. The exhibition, which collected paintings from several museums, marks the 200-year anniversary of his birth. Pavel Golovkin/AP


A child climbs onto a giant laptop keyboard during a promotional event at a shopping center in Beijing on Thursday. Thomas Peter/Reuters
s

Market Closes for July 28th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

18456.35 -15.82

 

-0.09%

 
S&P 500 2171.66 +5.08

 

+0.23%

 
NASDAQ 5154.984 +15.175

 

+0.30%

 
TSX 14557.00 +10.46

 

+0.07%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16476.84 -187.98
 
 
-1.13%
 
 
HANG

SENG

22174.34 -44.65
 
 
-0.20%
 
 
SENSEX 28208.62 +184.29
 
 
+0.66%
 
 
FTSE 100 6721.06 -29.37
 
 
-0.44%
 
 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.067 1.076
 
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

1.685 1.688
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.5027 1.4976
 
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.2255 2.2110
 
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.76012 0.75918
 
 
US

$

1.31559 1.31721
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.45723 0.68623
 
 
US

$

1.10767 0.90280

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1341.75 1329.00
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 41.14 41.92

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

     July 28, 2016 (Xinhua) — Canada’s main stock market in Toronto inched higher slightly Thursday as investors responded positively to a string of company profit reports and energy stocks mostly gained although crude oil prices extended losses.

     The Toronto Stock Exchange’s benchmark Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index gained 5.10 point, or 0.04 percent, to close at 14,551.64 points. Five of the TSX index’s eight main sub-sectors were higher.

     Oil prices continued to fall on Thursday after data showed U.S. crude stockpiles gained unexpectedly, deepening market concerns on oversupply.

     U.S. Texas light sweet crude for September delivery lost 0.78 U.S. dollars to settle at 41.14 U.S. dollars a barrel, while Brent crude for September delivery erased 0.77 U.S. dollars to close at 42.70 U.S. dollars a barrel.

     TSX energy group climbed 1.11 percent despite a fall in crude oil, while the metal & mining group, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, rebounded 4.85 percent.

     The most notable gainers included Cenovus Energy Inc., hiking 6.69 percent to 18.67 Canadian dollars (14.19 U.S. dollars) after posting a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss, and First Quantum Minerals Ltd., which jumped 9.13 percent to 11.35 Canadian dollars.

     Teck Resources Limited, the largest producer of steelmaking coal in North America, gained 6.60 percent to 20.19 Canadian dollars after reporting a surprise quarterly profit as its costs declined.

     TransCanada Corporation rose 1.51 percent to 60.35 Canadian dollars after reporting a slightly higher-than-expected quarterly profit.

     The biggest drags included Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc., the world’s biggest fertilizer company by capacity, down 7.18 percent to 20.95 Canadian dollars after cutting its full-year profit forecast and dividend for a second time this year.

     In financial sector, Royal Bank of Canada has taken the top spot among the big banks in an influential annual survey of customer satisfaction, knocking off Toronto-Dominion Bank, which had held the honor for 10 consecutive years.

     According to the J.D. Power 2016 Canadian Retail Banking Satisfaction Study, RBC ranked highest in overall customer satisfaction among the five biggest Canadian banks, with a score of 765 on a 1,000-point scale.

     On the economic beat, Statistics Canada reported that average weekly earnings were 956 Canadian dollars in May, up 0.2 percent from the previous month. Compared with 12 months earlier, average weekly earnings increased 0.9 percent.

     The Canadian dollar traded higher at 0.7598 U.S. dollar, compared with Wednsday’s closing rate of 0.7581 U.S. dollar.

US

By Dani Burger

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, lifting the S&P 500 Index within striking distance of an all-time high, amid a mix of corporate results as investors await data Friday on the strength of the American economy. Stimulus bets influenced currency markets ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting.

     The S&P 500 staged an afternoon comeback to end five points below its record after falling as much as 0.4 percent. Earnings from Ford Motor Co. to Facebook Inc. tugged indexes in opposite directions. Google parent Alphabet Inc. surged almost 5 percent at 4:10 p.m. after its profit topped estimates. Amazon.com Inc. slipped 1 percent in late trading.

     The dollar weakened on the Federal Reserve’s assurance that it will raise rates gradually, while the yen erased gains before the BOJ stimulus decision. The pound slid on bets the Bank of England will lower rates next week. Oil slipped toward $41 a barrel, approaching a bear market.

     Traders have whipsawed currencies from the yen to the pound this week on speculation over additional stimulus. They’ll get more data in the next 24 hours, as the BOJ is expected to expand a record program, while Europe will announce results of the latest stress tests for banks before investors get their first glimpse of U.S. gross domestic product in the second quarter. Earnings from Alphabet Inc. to Amazon.com Inc. are due after U.S. trading closes.

     “People are waiting for a catalyst to get us moving again,” John Stoltzfus, chief market strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. in New York, said by phone. “People are waiting to see what’s next in line. The market is digesting all the activity it’s had to face from a geopolitical point of view, a macro economic point of view as well as digesting this current earnings season.”

     The S&P 500rose 0.2 percent to 2,170.01 at 4 p.m. in New York, 0.2 percent below the 2,175.03 all-time high set July 22. The index has added more than 3 percent in July, though it’s been in a rare holding pattern for the past two weeks. Since the S&P 500 Index hit the fourth straight all-time high on July 14, the benchmark gauge has alternated between gains and losses, finishing every day less than 0.5 percent from the previous close. The 10-day streak is the longest since data began in 1927.

     While the prospects for additional central-bank support bolstered equities, better-than-forecast economic data and corporate earnings that broadly beat projections have also helped lift the S&P 500 this month. The gauge posted seven records in 10 days in a midmonth stretch, and it’s rebounded 18 percent since its low in February. It’s up 6 percent this year – – one of the best gains in developed-world equities.

     Ford sank 8.2 percent after earnings missed estimates. General Motors Co. dropped 3.3 percent. Whole Foods Markets Inc. sank 9.5 percent on poor results. Facebook climbed to a record on sales that topped forecasts. MasterCard Inc., the second- largest U.S. payments network, advanced after saying profit rose 6.7 percent as customer card spending increased.

     The Stoxx Europe 600 slid 1 percent. The gauge is 2 percent from its June 23 level, the day of the U.K.’s EU referendum, while U.S. and Asian shares have already recovered from their losses. Banks fell the most among Stoxx 600 industry groups. Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl, Deutsche Bank AG and Banco Popular Espanol SA declined more than 3 percent, with the latest stress-test results to be released on Friday.

     The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, lost 0.1 percent. Against the euro, the U.S. currency was headed for its biggest two-day slide since June. The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.1076. The yen was little changed at 105.42 per dollar after dropping 0.8. percent. majority of economists polled by Bloomberg predict the BOJ will boost asset purchases on Friday and lower the already negative key rate.

     The pound slipped against all of its 16 major counterparts with swaps trading indicating that the Bank of England is certain to cut its key interest rate rate next week. Sterling dropped 0.5 percent to $1.3156.

     Oil fell to a three-month low, edging closer to a bear market, after U.S. crude supplies unexpectedly rose from what was already the highest seasonal level in at least two decades. West Texas Intermediate crudedecreased 1.9 percent to settle at $41.14 a barrel and Brent slipped 1.8 percent to $42.70.

     Oil is near the 20 percent drop from early June that would characterize a bear market. The recovery driven by supply disruptions that saw prices almost double from a 12-year low reached in February has petered out amid renewed concerns about the strength of demand.

     “There is still a surplus and the oil price is going to have difficulty sustaining any rally because of that,” David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, said by phone. “We’re now heading toward the end of the drive season and the market is probably going to weaken further. The $40 a barrel level looks like the base at the moment.”

     Platinum is up 11 percent in July, putting prices on track for the best month since 2012. Palladium is even better, jumping 17 percent, the most since 2008. By comparison, gold added less than 2 percent in July as it lost momentum after gains in the first half.

     Platinum futures for October delivery rose 0.9 percent to settle at $1,138.90 an ounce, while gold futures climbed 0.5 percent to settle at $1,341.20 an ounce.

     Treasuries declined for the first time in three days, pushing the 10-year yield up one basis point to 1.50 percent. The yield slid on Wednesday by the most since July 5 after the Fed’s rate decision.

     U.S. government debt has rallied about 5 percent in 2016 as the Fed held off on raising interest rates after liftoff from near zero in December, while central banks in Japan and Europe maintained unprecedented stimulus.

     The default rate for leveraged loans in the energy sector could spike close to 18 percent if Templar Energy LLC and Stallion Oilfield Services Ltd. are unable to make interest payments on their debt, Fitch Ratings said.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

“If your actions inspire others to dream more, learn more, do more and become more, you are a leader.” John Quincy Adams

 

As ever,

 

Karen

 

“Tell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn.” Benjamin Franklin

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

July 27, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Carolann is out of the office, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A group of folk dancers rehearse prior to the arrival of Pope Francis at the military airport in Krakow, Poland, Wednesday. Alik Keplicz/AP


People enter the water for a morning swim at Copabacana beach in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Wednesday. The iconic Copacabana beach will be the starting point for the road cycling race, marathon swimming and triathlon competitions at the summer Olympics. Felipe Dana/AP

Market Closes for July 27th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

18472.17 -1.58

 

-0.01%

 
S&P 500 2166.58 -2.60

 

-0.12%

 
NASDAQ 5139.810 +29.763

 

+0.58%

 
TSX 14546.54 -3.46

 

-0.02%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16664.82 +281.78
 
 
+1.72%

 

HANG

SENG

22218.99 +89.26

 

+0.40%

 

SENSEX 28024.33 +47.81

 

+0.17%

 

FTSE 100 6750.43 +26.40

 

+0.39%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.076 1.122
CND.

30 Year

Bond

1.688 1.732
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.4976 1.5594
 
 
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.2110 2.2801
 
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.75918 0.75828

 

US

$

1.31721 1.31877
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.45625 0.68669

 

US

$

1.10556 0.90452
 

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1329.00 1323.00
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 41.92 42.92

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian shares ended little changed as energy producers slumped to the lowest level in three months, while gold miners rallied on the prospect for lower U.S. interest rates for longer.

     The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell less than one point to 14,546.54 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, paring earlier losses of as much as 0.4 percent after the Federal Reserve reiterated a gradual approach to tightening. Trading volume was 5.9 percent lower than the 30-day average. The benchmark is up 12 percent in 2016, making Canadian stocks more expensive than their U.S. peers, with a price-earnings ratio of 22.4 for the S&P/TSX, about 11 percent higher than the S&P 500 Index.

     The Fed’s decision bolstered the price of gold, which tends to be a more attractive investment as a store of value against a weaker U.S. dollar in a low-rate environment. Futures prices rose 0.5 percent in New York to settle at $1,334.50 an ounce. Barrick Gold Corp. and Goldcorp Inc. added at least 3.1 percent. Raw-materials producers jumped 2.8 percent as a group.

     The gain in mining stocks extends a rally for the group this year to 60 percent, the best year-to-date performance for the group in at least 30 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

     Suncor Energy Inc. and Cenovus Energy Inc. retreated at least 1 percent to lead energy producers lower as five of 10 industries in the S&P/TSX retreated. Royal Bank of Canada fell 1.2 percent as financial services companies also fell.

     Crude for September delivery declined 2.3 percent in New York to settle at $41.92 a barrel. Inventories rose 1.67 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, while analysts had forecast a 2 million barrel decline. Oil has slipped 18 percent since early June.

     Mining and energy stocks have propelled Canada to the second-best performance among developed markets, trailing only New Zealand. The S&P/TSX has joined global markets extending gains this month following a brief post-Brexit vote swoon amid a stretch of solid U.S. economic data and improving earnings.

     Global markets ended the day higher, as a gauge of developed and developing markets closed at the highest in eight months. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced a 28 trillion yen ($265 billion) fiscal stimulus package.

     Investors also weighed earnings from Canadian companies. Intact Financial Corp. added 1.2 percent, closing at the highest level in nine months. The insurer reported second-quarter operating earnings well ahead of analysts’ estimates, even after accounting for a significant loss from the Fort McMurray, Alberta wildfires earlier in the year that forced the evacuation of the town. 

     Gildan Activewear Inc. slumped 5.6 percent, the most since October, after trimming the top end of its 2016 guidance. And CGI Group Inc. climbed 7.2 percent to lead technology stocks higher as third-quarter earnings topped estimates.

US

     New York (AP) — Stocks ended Wednesday’s trading slightly lower as shares of energy companies and consumer goods makers outweighed gains in technology companies like Apple.

     Investors also worked through the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement. The Fed didn’t make any changes to interest rates but left the door open for increases later this year.

     The Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.58 points, less than 0.1 percent, to 18,472.17. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost 2.60 points, or 0.1 percent, to 2,166.58. The technology- heavy Nasdaq composite rose 29.76 points, or 0.6 percent, to 5,139.81.

     Apple jumped $6.36, or 6.6 percent, to $103.03. While the company reported lower revenue and iPhone sales, it still earned $10.5 billion last quarter, well above analysts’ estimates. Apple had been one of the biggest drags on the market this year as investors became concerned that its years of massive growth were coming to an end. Apple nearly erased its loss for the year.

     “The expectations for Apple were abysmal,” said Daniel Morgan, a portfolio manager at Synovus Trust Company who owns Apple shares. “Everyone is waiting for later this year, when Apple releases new products.”

     Apple, one of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones industrial average, is the first of the major technology companies to report this week. Investors got results from Facebook after the close of trading Wednesday, which will be followed by Amazon and Google later this week.

     Coca-Cola, another component of the Dow, fell $1.48, or 3.3 percent, to $43.40 after the beverage giant trimmed its sales outlook for the year, citing weak demand in China and other international markets. Coke has faced headwinds in the U.S. and internationally as more consumers move away from sugary drinks.

     Twitter, which also reported its results late Tuesday, plunged $2.68, or 15 percent, to $15.77. The social media company reported another loss and said user adoption rates continue to slow. Roughly 313 million people regularly used Twitter last quarter, a fraction of the 1.6 billion people who use Facebook regularly.

     “It’s really now becoming a question on whether Twitter as a concept is something financially viable,” Morgan said. “Fundamentally, is this going to work?”

     The Federal Reserve voted to keep interest rates unchanged while noting that “near-term risks” to the economy have “diminished.” The Fed said the U.S. job market has rebounded, with strong job gains in June following weak growth in May. Investors will get another policy decision by one of the world’s central banks on Friday, when the Bank of Japan is likely to vote to increase its economic stimulus efforts.

     Benchmark U.S. crude fell $1, or roughly 2.3 percent, to close at $41.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, continuing its month-long decline. Brent crude, used to price international oils, fell $1.40 to $43.47 a barrel in London.

     Energy stocks were among the biggest decliners as oil prices fell. Marathon Oil, Transocean and Hess Corporation all fell roughly 4 percent or more.

     Bond prices rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.51 percent from 1.56 percent, most of the gains coming after the Fed’s announcement. The dollar rose to 105.23 yen from 104.63 yen and the euro fell to $1.1054 from $1.0986.

     In metals, the price of gold rose $5.90 to $1,326.70 an ounce, silver rose 31 cents to $20 an ounce and copper fell 4 cents to $2.19 a pound.

     In other energy commodities, heating oil fell 3 cents to $1.30 a gallon, wholesale gasoline futures fell 2 cents to $1.32 a gallon and natural gas fell 4 cents to $2.67 per 1,000 cubic feet.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

 

“One of the most sincere forms of respect is actually listening to what another has to say.” Bryant H. McGill

 

As ever,

 

Karen

 

“Patience is the companion of wisdom.” Saint Augustine

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

July 26, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Carolann is out of the office, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Solar Impulse 2, a solar powered plane, arrives at an airport in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Tuesday. Reuters

 

On Monday, street performers dance along Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro, less than two weeks before the start of the Rio 2016 Olympic Games. Stoyan Nenov/Reuters

Market Closes for July 26th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

18473.75 -19.31

 

-0.10%

 
S&P 500 2169.17 +0.69

 

+0.03%

 
NASDAQ 5110.047 +12.418

 

+0.24%

 
TSX 14546.10 +48.00

 

+0.33%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16383.04 -237.25
 
 
-1.43%

 

HANG

SENG

22129.73 +136.29

 

+0.62%

 

SENSEX 27976.52 -118.82

 

-0.42%

 

FTSE 100 6724.03 +13.90

 

+0.21%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.122 1.107
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

1.732 1.727
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.5594 1.5731
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.2801 2.2872
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.75828 0.75658

 

US

$

1.31877 1.32173
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.44874 0.69026

 

US

$

1.09855 0.91029

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1323.00 1313.15
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 42.92 42.38
 
 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rebounded from the biggest slump in a month with the biggest gain in two weeks amid corporate earnings and a rally in gold producers.

     The S&P/TSX Composite Index added 0.4 percent to 14,550 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, the biggest gain since July 12. A rout in energy shares dragged the index lower by 0.7 percent on Monday. The benchmark is now up 12 percent in 2016, making Canadian stocks more expensive than their U.S. peers, with a price- earnings ratio of 22.4 for the S&P/TSX, about 11 percent higher than the S&P 500 Index.

     Raw-materials producers climbed 2.2 percent as a group, the biggest contributor to gains in the S&P/TSX as six of 10 industries increased on trading volume 17 percent lower than the 30-day average. Gold prices pushed higher as the dollar fell ahead of the July interest rate decision at the Federal Reserve. Traders are pricing in only a 10 percent chance of a rate increase in July, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

     The gain in mining stocks extends a rally for the group this year to 56 percent, the best year-to-date performance for the group in at least 30 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Mining and energy stocks have propelled Canada to the second-best performance among developed markets, trailing only New Zealand. It’s a far cry from last year, when the S&P/TSX was one of the worst-performing markets in the world, slumping the most since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

     Canadian National Railway slipped 0.5 percent. While the nation’s largest railroad reported adjusted earnings of C$1.11 a share ahead of the C$1.06 average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg, revenue fell 9.1 percent, short of analysts’ forecasts. The company cut jobs and parked locomotives in the quarter in the face of weakening freight demand.

     Canopy Growth Corp. slipped 1.2 percent, trading near the highest level in eight months in its first day of trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange after graduating from the junior Venture exchange. The marijuana grower surged 19 percent in the past two days, reversing losses for the year.

     Element Financial Corp. lost 3.6 percent, the biggest decline in a month. The equipment finance firm agreed Monday to split into two companies.

US

 By Dani Burger

     (Bloomberg) — Earnings from McDonald’s Corp. to Caterpillar Inc. tugged U.S. stocks in opposite directions, leaving benchmark indexes little changed as investors turned attention to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision.

     Housing data that showed the biggest gain in new-home sales in eight years bolstered optimism in the economy and raised the specter that the Fed may strike a more hawkish tone on rates after its two-day meeting. Apple Inc. is slated to report results after the close of trading. Twitter Inc. sank in late trading after forecasting revenue below estimates and amid signs of a struggle to win more ads.

     The S&P 500 Index rose less than one point to 2,169.18 at 4 p.m. in New York, narrowly avoiding its first two-day losing streak since the Brexit secession vote a month ago. The index has rallied 8.4 percent in that time after a 5.3 percent rout in the two days following the U.K.’s shock decision to secede from the European Union. The gauge retreated on Monday from a record, with energy producers sliding amid a decline in oil prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1 percent to 18,473.61 on Tuesday, and the Russell 2000 Index of small caps added 0.6 percent.

     “I don’t get the sense that the stock market will rocket higher any time soon,” said Mark Heppenstall, the Horsham, Pennsylvania-based chief investment officer of Penn Mutual Asset Management. His firm oversees about $20 billion. “It’s hard to make case to push the numbers up from here. A lot of those way of boosting earnings are well played out. You’ll have to see earnings that will drive market from this point as opposed to financial engineering or cost cutting.”

     The rally that pushed the S&P 500 up for four straight weeks has faltered as the Fed kicks off a two-day meeting, with economists estimating the central bank will keep borrowing costs unchanged at its conclusion on Wednesday. Traders will also focus on earnings, with 45 companies in the S&P 500 scheduled to report results on Tuesday, including Apple Inc.

     Traders are pricing in less than even odds of a rate increase until at least March 2017. While recent economic data have beaten forecasts, Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues have emphasized a gradual pace of tightening. On Tuesday, data showed consumer confidence fell by less than forecast, while new-home sales rose in June to the highest level in more than eight years. Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose less than projected in May from a year earlier.

     After recovering from its losses following the U.K. vote to leave the European Union, the S&P 500 went on to post seven records in 10 days. Optimism that corporate earnings would help support stock prices has pushed the gauge up 19 percent from its low in February, with analysts easing their estimates for second-quarter profit declines at S&P 500 companies to 4.5 percent. The S&P 500 is now up 6.1 percent for the year, one of the best performances among developed-market equities.

     Trading Tuesday was volatile in volume in line with the 30- day average. The S&P 500 reversed morning gains after rising to 2,173.54, coming within about a point of its record close on Friday. It slipped about 13 points in 90 minutes, leveling off around yesterday’s intraday low of 2,161.95. The tumble in the S&P 500 coincided with a period of extreme volume in futures that track the benchmark gauge. Volume in so-called e-mini contracts averaged more than 21,000 a minute between 10:55 a.m. and 10:57 a.m. New York time, compared with an average of about 1,700 in the three minutes prior. The gauge subsequently erased those losses.

     Meanwhile, the earnings season has delivered more optimistic outlooks, as the ratio of companies raising their forecasts jumped toward a 12-year high, data from Credit Suisse Group AG show. Nearly 90 percent of companies in the S&P 500 Index that have changed previously disclosed expectations for future earnings have raised the target, among those that reported results between June 1 and July 21, according to data compiled by the bank.

     “This market seem more devoid of earnings reactions than I can remember in a while,”  Brian Frank, portfolio manager at Key Biscayne, Florida-based Frank Capital Partners LLC, said by phone.“ It’s all about if central banks are going to do more QE, buying bonds or issuing perpetual zero coupon bonds in Japan. It’s all macro.”

     In Tuesday’s trading, five of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries moved lower, led by phone and utility companies, which fell as much as 1.5 percent. Verizon Communications Inc. lost 1.9 percent after it posted wireless subscriber gains that missed analysts’ estimates. 3M Co., after cutting its outlook for sales growth due to pressure from a strong U.S. dollar, dropped 1.1 percent.

     Among the biggest declines in the Dow, McDonald’s fell 4.5 percent after reporting same-store sales growth that missed analysts’ estimates. Amid concerns that the U.S. fast-food industry is heading into a recession, Darden Restaurants Inc., Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. and Yum! Brands Inc. fell as much as 3.8 percent.

     Technology companies in the S&P 500 gained 0.4 percent, closing at a 16-year high. The group was boosted by Analog Devices Inc., which announced it will acquire Linear Technology Corp. for about $14.8 billion. Shares in Analog rose 3.9 percent, while Linear posted a 29 percent gain. Also moving on corporate news, Texas Instruments Inc. jumped after the largest maker of analog semiconductors forecast revenue and profit that may beat analysts’ estimates.

     Netflix Inc. extended gains from Monday, rallying 4.3 percent after a director, Jay Hoag, disclosed a 600,000 share purchase in the company.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

 

“Good, better, best. Never let it rest. ‘Til your good is better and your better is best.” St. Jerome

 

As ever,

 

Karen

 

 

“It always seems impossible until its done.” Nelson Mandela

 

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

July 25, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Carolann is out of the office, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

On Monday, painters work on a mural created by Brazilian artist Eduardo Kobra that will cover nearly 3,000 square meters of wall space and depict indigenous faces from five continents as a welcome to visitors attending the Rio 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Stoyan Nenov/Reuters

SoftBank’s ‘pepper’ robots, dressed in different bank uniforms, are displayed during a news conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Monday. Tyron Siu/Reuters

Market Closes for July 25th, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

18493.06 -77.79

 

-0.42%

 
S&P 500 2168.48 -6.55

 

-0.30%

 
NASDAQ 5097.628 -2.534

 

-0.05%

 
TSX 14498.10 -102.56

 

-0.70%

 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16620.29 -6.96
 
-0.04%
 
HANG

SENG

21993.44 +29.17
 
+0.13%
 
SENSEX 28095.34 +292.10
 
+1.05%
 
FTSE 100 6710.13 -20.35
 
-0.30%
 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.107 1.097
CND.

30 Year

Bond

1.727 1.731
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.5731 1.5645
 
U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.2872 2.2809
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.75658 0.76417

 

US

$

1.32173 1.30861
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.45292 0.68827
 
 
US

$

1.09926 0.90970

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1313.15 1320.75
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 42.38 43.49

 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canada stocks fell the most in a month, dropping from the highest level in a year to halt a three-day advance as commodities producers retreated with crude and gold.

     The S&P/TSX Composite Index lost 0.7 percent to 14,498.10 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The benchmark is up 11 percent in 2016, making Canadian stocks more expensive than their U.S. peers, with a price-earnings ratio of 22.3 for the S&P/TSX, about 11 percent higher than the S&P 500 Index.

     Raw-materials and energy producers tumbled at least 1.9 percent, the two biggest laggards among 10 industries in the S&P/TSX. They account for about one-third of the benchmark by weighting. Suncor Energy Inc. and Barrick Gold Corp. fell at least 3 percent.

     Oil dropped to the lowest level in three months, down 2.4 percent in New York to extend losses after a weekly decline last week. U.S. producers increased drilling for a fourth week, even as government data points to U.S. supplies remaining ample as the summer driving season comes to a close. The S&P/TSX Energy Index dropped to the lowest in a month.

     Gold prices also fell, extending the first back-to-back weekly loss since May. Global markets have rallied following a brief swoon after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, while strengthening U.S. economic data has prompted traders to increase bets of a rate increase.

     Today’s decline in raw-material shares pares the rally this year to 53 percent, which remains the best such performance for the group in at least 30 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Mining and energy stocks have propelled Canada to the second-best performance among developed markets, trailing only New Zealand. It’s a far cry from last year, when the S&P/TSX was one of the worst-performing markets in the world, slumping the most since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

     Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. added 0.6 percent, rebounding from a two-day slide. The struggling drugmaker said Friday it had received a letter from the Food and Drug Administration over its application for an eye drop medication due to some deficiencies at a manufacturing facility.

US

By Jeremy Herron and Bailey Lipschultz

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks declined as crude oil slid to a three-month low, while a stronger dollar weighed on metals ahead of central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week.

     The S&P 500 Index slipped from a record as energy shares paced declines, with U.S. oil down 2.4 percent to below $44 a barrel. Nine of 10 main groups in the gauge retreated amid trading volumes that were 18 percent below average. The Treasury’s auction of two-year notes lured the weakest demand since 2008 on speculation the Federal Reserve will acknowledge signs of economic strength on Wednesday. Gold extended its first back-to-back weekly drop since May as the dollar gained against high-yielding currencies.

     Global equities edged lower before the central-bank policy meetings and as investors awaited a slew of corporate results. The pullback came after the S&P 500 advanced to a fresh record Friday, as strong U.S. economic data spurred traders to boost bets on the Fed raising interest rates by the end of 2016. While the Fed will probably keep borrowing costs on hold this week, economists predict the Bank of Japan will bolster stimulus. The European Central Bank last week said it would be ready and able to act if needed. 

     “This is a small drop off from the record climb after recovering those losses from Brexit,” said Todd Lowenstein, director of research at Highmark Capital Management Inc. in Montecito, California. “There’s euphoria from the potential of more central bank easing. Along with higher-than-expected earnings, that led markets higher and now we’ve had a chance to digest those gains and we’re seeing a slight selloff.”

     The S&P 500 lost 0.3 percent to 2,168.48 as of 4 p.m. in New York, with energy companies down 2 percent as a group and industrial shares falling 0.6 percent. Yahoo! Inc. fell 2.7 percent after agreeing to sell its main web businesses to Verizon Communications Inc., while Verizon fell 0.4 percent.

     Roper Technologies Inc. dropped 5.8 percent, the most in the S&P 500, after missing profit estimates. Micron Technology Inc. jumped 6 percent after the company adopted a so-called poison pill, a rights issue that can make a takeover more difficult to achieve.

     In Europe, the Stoxx 600gauge pared gains to close 0.2 percent higher, with the drop in oil prices weighing on energy producers. The benchmark came within 1 percent of erasing losses incurred after the Brexit vote, after figures showed a measure of German business sentiment slipped less than expected in July. The gains were short-lived, however, with the rebound stalling for a third day after the index hit a one-month high last week.

     In Asia, Nintendo Co. shares plunged by the most since 1990 after the company said late Friday that the financial benefits from the worldwide hit Pokemon Go will be limited. The stock sank 18 percent to 23,220 yen at the close in Tokyo, the maximum one-day move allowed by the exchange, wiping out 708 billion yen ($6.7 billion) in market value.

     Futures on Asian equity indexes mostly signaled losses for Tuesday, with contracts on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average down at least 0.2 percent in both Osaka and Chicago. Futures on stock gauges in South Korea and Hong Kong dropped more than 0.1 percent, while those on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index were little changed.

     The dollar advanced against about eight of its 16 major peers, climbing at least 0.7 percent against Mexico’s peso and the Canadian dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 key currencies, added 0.1 percent to its highest point since May 31.

     “Crude is under pressure so that’s a big factor,” said Bipan Rai, senior foreign-exchange and macro strategist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Toronto. “But we’re also starting to see the market become more cognizant of the fact that the Fed could be more hawkish than expected, which is leading to a firmer dollar.”

     Brazil’s real joined a retreat in emerging-market currencies Monday as policy makers intervened and economists cut forecasts for the Latin American nation’s economy amid uncertainty over budget plans. Turkey’s lira climbed 1 percent, the most among 31 major currencies.

     The yen reversed an earlier retreat to end Monday up 0.3 percent at 105.81 per dollar.

     Oil dropped to its lowest point since April after U.S. producers increased drilling for a fourth week, even as the market contends with abundant stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped to $43.13 a barrel after sliding 1.3 percent on Friday to its lowest settlement since May 9.

     Rigs targeting oil in the U.S. rose to 371, capping the longest run of gains since August, according to data from Baker Hughes Inc. Money managers also added the most bets in a year on falling WTI prices during the week ended July 19, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures.

     Zinc paced gains in industrial metals, trading near the highest level in more than a year on prospects for a supply deficit and as central banks pledge to back economic stability, boosting the metal’s demand outlook.

     Precious metals declined, with gold futures losing 0.7 percent to settle at $1,322.90 an ounce as the buoyant equity markets and revived expectations for a potential U.S. rate hike this year hurt demand. Silver futures retreated 0.4 percent.

     Benchmark two-year bond yields jumped to a one-month high as the Treasury sold $26 billion of the maturity at steeper yields than indicated in pre-auction trading. Yields on Treasuries maturing in a decade were little changed at 1.58 percent. The Treasury has $103 billion of planned offerings of coupon-bearing securities this week.

     Two-year German notes held onto their longest slide since August as data indicated that Europe’s biggest economy may be weathering the fallout from last month’s Brexit vote.

     A month after British voters opted to leave the European Union, U.K. bonds are yielding the least in 16 years relative to their U.S. counterparts, reflecting speculation that the Bank of England will loosen policy to mitigate the economic impact of the vote. The extra yield, or spread, that investors get for holding U.S. two-year notes instead of similar-maturity gilts was 58 basis points, the most since May 2000, based on closing Bloomberg generic prices.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

“The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today.” H. Jackson Brown, Jr.

 

As ever,

 

Karen

 

“Integrity is doing the right thing, even when no one is watching.” C. S. Lewis

 

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

June 22, 2016 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

After three years of trying to balance his day job with his musical ambitions, a suburban family man with an office job named Declan Patrick McManus finally makes his breakthrough on this date in 1977 with the release of his debut album, My Aim Is True. The world now knows him better by his stage name, Elvis Costello.

Nothing softeneth the Arrogance of our Nature like a

 Mixture of some Frailties.  It is by them that we are best told,

 That we must not strike too hard upon others

 Because we ourselves do so often deserve blows.  They

 Pull our Rage by the sleeve and whisper

Gentleness to us in our censures.

 -Edward Frederick Lindley Wood, 1st Earl of Halifax, 1881-1959

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The breakaway group speeds downhill during the nineteenth stage of the Tour de France cycling race over 146 kilometers (90.7 miles) from Albertville and to Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc, France, on Friday. Christophe Ena/AP

 


Britain’s Prince George is seen with the family dog, Lupo, in this photograph taken in mid-July at his home in Norfolk and released by Kensington Palace on Friday to mark his third birthday. Matt Porteous/Duke and Duchess of Cambridge/Reuters

Market Closes for July 22nd, 2016

Market

Index

Close Change
Dow

Jones

18570.85 +53.62

 

+0.29%

 
S&P 500 2175.03 +9.86

 

+0.46%

 
NASDAQ 5100.164 +26.260

 

+0.52%

 
TSX 14600.66 +34.83

 

+0.24%
 
 

International Markets

Market

Index

Close Change
NIKKEI 16627.25 -182.97

 

-1.09%

 

HANG

SENG

21964.27 -36.22

 

-0.16%

 

SENSEX 27803.24 +92.72

 

+0.33%

 

FTSE 100 6730.48 +30.59

 

+0.46%

 

Bonds

Bonds % Yield Previous  % Yield
CND.

10 Year Bond

1.097 1.106
 
CND.

30 Year

Bond

1.731 1.746
U.S.   

10 Year Bond

1.5645 1.5526

 

U.S.

30 Year Bond

2.2809 2.2873
 
 

Currencies

BOC Close Today Previous  
Canadian $ 0.76117 0.76417

 

US

$

1.31376 1.30861
     
Euro Rate

1 Euro=

  Inverse
Canadian $ 1.44193 0.69351

 

US

$

1.09756 0.91111

Commodities

Gold Close Previous
London Gold

Fix

1320.75 1321.15
     
Oil Close Previous
WTI Crude Future 43.49 43.95
 
 

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks edged higher to cap a fourth weekly advance, pushing the benchmark index to the highest level in a year, as investors weighed contrasting earnings from electronics company Celestica Inc. and lumber producer West Fraser Timber Co.

     The S&P/TSX Composite Index climbed 0.2 percent to 14,600.66 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, the highest since July 17, 2015. The benchmark is up 12 percent in 2016, making Canadian stocks more expensive than their U.S. peers, with a price-earnings ratio of 22.4 for the S&P/TSX, about 11 percent higher than the S&P 500 Index.

     Mining stocks have propelled Canada to the second-best performance among developed markets, trailing only New Zealand. The group has rallied for a 56 percent increase amid a rebound in gold prices, the best such performance in at least 30 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

     Financial services companies added 0.3 percent Friday, led by gains in insurers Manulife Financial Corp. and Sun Life Financial Inc. Industrials and consumer discretionary stocks also rose as eight of 10 industries in the S&P/TSX advanced.

     Health-care stocks dropped 4.2 percent, the biggest laggard in the S&P/TSX. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. lost 6.2 percent after receiving a letter from the Food and Drug Administration over its application for an eye drop medication. Some deficiencies were found after an inspection of Valeant unit Bausch + Lomb’s manufacturing facility in Tampa, Florida.

     Raw-materials producers ended the day flat, paring earlier losses. West Fraser Timber added 0.1 percent, after falling as much as 5.2 percent, as second-quarter earnings fell short of analysts’ estimates. Barrick Gold Corp. added 1.2 percent.

     Celestica jumped 8.5 percent, the most since January, after the company reported a third-quarter revenue outlook ahead of estimates. The high end of its sales guidance also exceeded the highest analyst estimate.

     Canadian retail sales advanced in May for a second month, rising 0.2 percent after a gain of 0.8 percent in April. Sales climbed at gas stations even as car sales declined. Combined with strong gains in January and February, retail sales this year are up 4.9 percent, the best start to a year in six years. The inflation rate was unchanged in June.

US

By Dani Burger and Bailey Lipschultz

     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, sending the S&P 500 Index to a fresh record, as investors showed confidence corporate earnings will not derail a rally that’s headed toward a fifth week.

     Equities rebounded as some of the week’s best performers were among the biggest contributors to Friday’s climb. Microsoft Corp. and Biogen Inc. added to their strongest weekly increases since at least March. Verizon Communications Inc. rose 1.3 percent as it’s said to be near a deal to buy Yahoo! Inc. Gains were tempered by disappointment that followed earnings from General Electric Co., Honeywell International Inc. and Apple Inc. supplier Skyworks Solutions Inc.

     The S&P 500rose 0.5 percent to 2,175.03 at 4 p.m. in New York, a seventh all-time high in the last 10 sessions after going more than 13 months without one. The benchmark gained 0.6 percent this week, the smallest such advance in its four-week run. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 53.62 points, or 0.3 percent, to 18,570.85, and the Nasdaq Composite Index increased 0.5 percent. About 5.6 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 21 percent below the three-month average.

     “It’s been a bit of a mixed bag, but you have to say that the earnings reports have been positive overall,” said Chuck Self, chief investment officer of iSectors LLC, an Appleton, Wisconsin-based asset manager. “There’s certainly no trend to the negative in the earnings reports at all. There is a question of valuations out there and with interest rates so low, it’s hard to figure out whether it’s true to value.”

     The S&P 500 closed with the longest stretch of weekly gains since March. The benchmark on Wednesday posted its sixth record in eight sessions, while the Dow rose for nine straight days, its longest rally since 2013, before halting the advance Thursday. Speculation that central banks will act to cushion any fallout from the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union, and signs of a strengthening U.S. economy have propelled stocks higher in recent weeks.

     The earnings season has also spurred optimism corporate results will support equities near records. About a quarter of S&P 500 firms have released figures so far, of which 82 percent exceeded profit forecasts and 60 percent beat sales expectations. The flow is set to accelerate, with more than 180 companies scheduled to report results next week. Analysts forecast net income among S&P 500 members will slide 4.5 percent in the second quarter — improving from a 5.8 percent drop predicted a week ago — for a fifth straight decline.

     Among shares rising after reporting results, Stanley Black & Decker Inc. rallied 4.8 percent to a record as the toolmaker’s sales and profit topped estimates. The company also boosted its full-year earnings outlook. American Airlines Group Inc. rose 4 percent after its profit also exceeded predictions, helped by lower fuel prices. Southwestern Energy Co. surged 9.5 percent after posting a smaller loss than estimated, and the company boosted its production outlook.

     “We’ve had a major rise in global equities for almost a month, this has been accelerated during the earnings season,” said Christian Gattiker, head of research at Julius Baer Group in Zurich. “This is now a time of digesting these rises. Next week is really a bumper in terms of earnings, so everyone is looking at that. Overall it’s been a decent earnings season so far.”

     While better-than-forecast data has helped push stocks to fresh highs, it has also lifted odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. Traders are pricing in a 46 percent chance of higher borrowing costs by December, up from about 21 percent two weeks ago, and a less than 8 percent probability after the two-day equity selloff following the Brexit vote.

     “The turn in economic data is what the stock market move has been discounting, stronger economic news and better earnings in the second half of the year,” Doug Ramsey, the chief investment officer of Leuthold Weeden Capital Management LLC, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “The S&P held very firm and this move off the February lows, and even more recently off the Brexit lows has been very powerful and broad.”

     In Friday’s trading, the CBOE Volatility Index fell 5.7 percent to 12.02, sinking for the seventh time in eight days. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX yesterday snapped its longest streak of declines in three months with its biggest climb since June 24, the day after the Brexit vote. A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. basket of most shorted shares briefly touched an eight-month high.

     Phone companies rose the most, followed by utilities as all of the S&P 500’s 10 main industries increased Friday. AT&T Inc. and Verizon climbed more than 1.3 percent, while AT&T had its best day in three weeks with analysts generally positive on its quarterly results. Industrials were little changed, erasing a decline after losing 0.9 percent.

     Managed-care stocks in the benchmark surged to a record, buoying the health-care group. Cigna Inc. rallied 4.1 percent to a six-month high, while Humana Inc., Aetna Inc. and Anthem Inc. added at least 1.8 percent. Cigna said it didn’t know when a deal to merge with Anthem would close, “if at all,” after regulators sued to block the transaction. Aetna and Humana promised to fight to defend their merger.      

      Among consumer-discretionary shares, Whirlpool Corp. rose 2.7 percent to the highest in three months as its quarterly results beat estimates and the appliance maker lifted the low end of its full-year profit view. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. advanced 5.8 percent, the strongest since January, despite missing estimates as the company continues to recover from an E. Coli outbreak last year.

     Advanced Micro Devices Inc. jumped 12 percent to a four- year high, after reporting quarterly revenue growth for the first time since 2014 and forecasting another increase in the current period.

     Technology companies rose, despite the group being home to the benchmark’s two biggest losers today. PayPal Holdings Inc. tumbled 6.8 percent on concern about the cost implications of a new agreement between the digital payments company and Visa Inc. Skyworks Solutions sank 8.6 percent, the most since October 2014, after its quarterly gross margin was short of estimates, even as revenue and profit beat predictions.

     GE and Honeywell weighed on the industrial group, losing more than 1.6 percent. GE sank after its quarterly report showed orders fell 2 percent in the second quarter — and tumbled 16 percent when excluding the effects of acquisitions and currency shifts. Honeywell cut its 2016 sales forecast amid sluggish global growth and lower demand for energy-related products and services.

 

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

If you see God within every man and woman,

then you can never do harm to any man or woman.

If you see God in yourself, then you attain perfection.

The Bhagavad Gita

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Old age is the most unexpected of all things

that happen to a man.

                      -Leon Trotsky, 1879-1940

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7