Category: Events

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Carolann is out of the office, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A girl looks into the mouth of a polar bear head ice sculpture at the launch of Hyde Park Winter Wonderland’s Magical Ice Kingdom in London on Thursday. This year’s Winter Wonderland starts on Nov. 18, 2016 and lasts until Jan. 2, 2017. Frank Augstein/AP

The International Space Station (ISS) crew member Thomas Pesquet of France gestures as he sits in a bus before boarding spacecraft at the Baikonur cosmodrome, Kazakhstan, Thursday. Kirill Kudryavtsev/Reuters
Market Closes for November 17^th, 2016

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	18903.82	+35.68   +0.19%
S&P 500	2187.12	+10.18   +0.47%
NASDAQ	5333.973	+39.389   +0.74%
TSX	14826.09	+92.87
		+0.63%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	17862.21	+0.42
		—
HANG SENG	22262.88	-17.65
		-0.08%
SENSEX	26227.62	-71.07
		-0.27%
FTSE 100	6794.71	+44.99
		+0.67%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		1.562		1.504
CND. 30 Year Bond		2.181		2.125
U.S.    10 Year Bond		2.2901		2.2101
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.0004		2.9135

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.73941	0.74501
US $	1.35243	1.34227
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.43714	0.69583
US $	1.06263	0.94106

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1226.75	1229.20
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	45.42	45.57

Market Commentary:
Canada
By Eric Lam
     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose for the third time in four sessions, to the highest close in three weeks, joining gains around the world as the Federal Reserve signaled the pace of interest rate increases will be gradual while energy producers advanced with crude.
     The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.6 percent to 14,826.09 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The equity benchmark is up 14 percent in 2016, making it the top performer among developed markets tracked by Bloomberg. Canadian stocks are about 10 percent more expensive than their peers in the S&P 500 Index.
     Global equity markets rallied after Fed chair Janet Yellen said a rate hike could come “relatively soon” in prepared text for testimony she’s scheduled to deliver before Congress’s Joint Economic Committee in Washington. Traders are now pricing in 98 percent probability of a rate hike next month, from 68 percent at the start of November, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 
     Energy producers rallied 0.5 percent as 10 of 11 industries in the S&P/TSX posted gains. Trading volume was 12 percent higher than the 30-day average. Suncor Energy Inc. added 0.5 percent.
     Crude futures declined 0.3 percent in New York, erasing earlier gains after dropping 0.5 percent Wednesday. Saudi Arabia’s minister of energy and industry said he’s optimistic producers will reach a deal at OPEC’s highly anticipated meeting in Vienna Nov. 30. Crude prices have whipsawed between gains and losses this week as the outcome of the meeting remains murky.
     Natural resource producers are the top-performing companies in the Canadian market this year, with materials stocks rallying 39 percent year-to-date on a rebound in commodities prices from gold to crude. Teck Resources Ltd., the nation’s largest diversified miner, is the top stock in the index, up almost six- fold this year as prices for coking coal and zinc have also surged.
     Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. added 1.1 percent, reversing an earlier loss of as much as 7.8 percent. The head of the drugmaker’s mail-order pharmacy affiliate and a former Valeant manager were indicted on federal charges that they defrauded shareholders. The executives Andy Davenport and Gary Tanner were charged by federal prosecutors in Manhattan on multiple counts including wire fraud and conspiracy to launder money.
     Great Canadian Gaming Corp. slumped 8.4 percent, the most in more than four years, after insider Neil Baker agreed to sell as much as eight million shares of the company. Prior to the deal, Baker owned or controlled almost 11 million shares, or about 18 percent of the casino company’s issued and outstanding stock.
US
By Rita Nazareth, John Hyland and Stephen Kirkland
     (Bloomberg) — The S&P 500 Index neared an all-time high, rising with the dollar as Treasuries fell after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled the central bank is close to raising interest rates.
     The U.S. stock benchmark rose to within four points of a record, and the Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies capped its longest rally since March 2013, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained despite a disappointing sales forecast from Cisco Systems Inc. U.S. government bonds slid after Yellen’s comments and a wave of data that pointed to U.S. economic strength. The greenback’s gains helped oil fall below $45 a barrel.
     In her first public comments since the U.S. election, Yellen told lawmakers that the Fed is close to boosting borrowing costs as the economy continues to gain traction. The comments weighed on Treasuries, with yields on 10-year notes slipping to 2.29 percent. Bank stocks pushed their rally since Donald Trump’s presidential victory back above 10 percent, while energy shares retreated. Speculation that Trump’s administration will carry out fiscal stimulus continues to lift industries that are perceived to benefit from economic growth.
     “A Trump victory could herald higher inflation, a roll back of financial regulation, higher spending and renewed attacks on the Fed’s independence,” said Michael Ingram, a market strategist at BGC Partners in London. “Having made some apocalyptic predictions in the event of Trump’s victory, markets quickly took a ‘glass half-full’ view. The more appropriate question is ‘What’s in the glass — champagne or cyanide?”’
     Traders are betting a Trump presidency will quicken the pace of interest-rate increases, pricing in a 98 percent chance that the Fed will act next month, compared with odds of about 80 percent before the election. Reports Thursday showed U.S. housing starts jumped to a nine-year high in October, while jobless claims fell to the lowest level in four decades.
     The S&P 500 added 0.5 percent to 2,187.12 as of 4 p.m. in New York, the highest close since Aug. 15, when the gauge closed at a record 2,190.15. The Russell 2000 jumped 0.6 percent to a record, while the Dow Average gained 0.2 percent.
     Earnings reports were also in focus. Best Buy Co. jumped 14 percent after its profit surpassed expectations, while Cisco slid 4.8 percent after predicting worse-than-estimated earnings and unexpectedly forecasting a decline in sales. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Staples Inc. dropped after reporting sales that missed estimates.
     The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.6 percent, the most in a week and erasing a slide of as much as 0.3 percent.
     Longer-dated U.S. government bonds led losses as Yellen told U.S. lawmakers Thursday that a rate hike could come relatively soon. The economy continues to create jobs at a healthy clip and is inflation inching higher, she said.
     Benchmark Treasury 10-year yields climbed six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. Thirty-year Treasury yields jumped eight basis points to 3 percent. Two-year yields added two basis points to 1.03 percent.
     A bond-market gauge of expectations for U.S. consumer prices over the next decade climbed this week to the highest since April 2015. The measure, known as the break-even rate, which represents the extra yield investors demand on regular 10- year notes over similar-maturity TIPS, reached 1.97 percentage points. The difference has risen from below 1.2 percentage points in February. The debt pays interest on a principal amount that rises with consumer prices.
     The dollar climbed to a five-month high versus the yen as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepared to meet President- elect Trump in New York.
     Traders are watching for any comments from Trump, who’s accused Japan of currency manipulation. He and Abe will meet at 5 p.m. New York time, according to a Trump adviser. The U.S. currency was buoyed after Fed Chair Yellen said a rate hike could come “relatively soon.”
     “The fact that she didn’t push back against market expectations for a December hike is perhaps the most significant takeaway,” said Jack Spitz, managing director for foreign exchange at National Bank of Canada in Toronto. “The dollar is higher as a result.”
     The dollar rose 0.8 percent to 109.99 yen, after reaching 108.56 yen, the strongest level since the start of June. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major peers, extended gains at its highest level since February. The gauge surged 2.8 percent last week, the most since September 2011.
     West Texas Intermediate oil for December delivery declined 0.3 percent to $45.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
     “The only that’s changed from earlier today is that the dollar is stronger,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “The rising dollar appears to be triggering selling of commodities.”
     Copper rebounded, ending a two-day slide, amid signs of resilient demand from U.S. home builders.
     On the London Meal Exchange, copper, zinc, lead and tin rose, while aluminum and nickel slipped. Meanwhile, a gauge of 18 base-metals producers tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence climbed 0.7 percent.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

“Your present circumstances don’t determine where you can go; they merely determine where you start.” Nido Qubein

As ever,
 

Karen

 
“Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.” Nelson Mandela

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Portfolio Manager &
Senior Vice-President

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Carolann is out of the office, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Storm clouds gather above Perch Rock lighthouse in New Brighton, northern England on Wednesday. Phil Noble/Reuters
A purebred Spanish horse is seen during the Sicab International PRE Horse Fair, which is dedicated exclusively to the purebred Spanish horse, in the Andalusian capital of Seville, southern Spain on Wednesday. Marcelo del Pozo/Reuters
Market Closes for November 16^th, 2016

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	18868.14	-54.92   -0.29%
S&P 500	2176.94	-3.45   -0.16%
NASDAQ	5294.586	+18.964   +0.36%
TSX	14733.22	-22.88
		-0.16%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	17862.21	+194.06
		+1.10%
HANG SENG	22280.53	-43.38
		-0.19%
SENSEX	26298.69	-5.94
		-0.02%
FTSE 100	6749.72	-43.02
		-0.63%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		1.504		1.537
CND. 30 Year Bond		2.125		2.166
U.S.    10 Year Bond		2.2101		2.2207
U.S. 30 Year Bond		2.9135		2.9595

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.74501	0.74512
US $	1.34227	1.34206
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.43720	0.69580
US $	1.07069	0.93397

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1229.20	1226.95
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	45.57	45.81

Market Commentary:
Canada
By Eric Lam
     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell after climbing the most in seven weeks, as material producers retreated with metals and banks slipped a second day on speculation gains had gone too far too quickly in the past week.
     The S&P/TSX Composite Index lost 0.2 percent to 14,733.22 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, paring earlier losses of as much as 0.6 percent while halting a two-day advance. The equity benchmark is up 13 percent in 2016, making it the top performer among developed markets tracked by Bloomberg. Canadian stocks are about 9 percent more expensive than their peers in the S&P 500 Index.
     Global equity markets retreated and the dollar rose against most major peers amid rising speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. Traders are now pricing in 94 percent probability of a rate hike next month, from 68 percent at the start of November, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 
     Financial shares tumbled after leading a rally in equities in the week following Donald Trump’s election win, on speculation his policies will goose domestic economic growth.
     Financial services stocks, which make up about a third of the S&P/TSX, fell 0.2 percent to pace declines while six of 11 industries in the index retreated. Trading volume was 4.6 percent higher than the 30-day average. Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. and Sun Life Financial Inc. fell at least 1 percent. Bank of Montreal slipped 0.2 percent, falling for the first time in three sessions.
     Materials and energy producers lost at least 0.3 percent as crude slipped 24 cents to settle at $45.57 a barrel in New York after a government report showed U.S. supplies rose.
     Natural resource producers are the top-performing companies in the Canadian market this year, with materials stocks rallying 40 percent year-to-date on a rebound in commodities prices from gold to crude. Teck Resources Ltd., the nation’s largest diversified miner, is the top stock in the index, up almost six- fold this year as prices for coking coal and zinc have also surged.
     Marijuana grower Canopy Growth Corp. ended a heavy day of trading down 15 percent, reversing an earlier gain of as much as 33 percent to halt a seven-day winning streak. Smaller peers Aphria Inc. and OrganiGram Holdings Inc. retreated at least 8.4 percent.
US
By Rita Nazareth, Yun Li and John Hyland
     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks retreated, while the dollar advanced as investors assessed the potential implications of President-elect Donald Trump’s policy outlook. Crude oil fell.
     Banks led losses as the S&P 500 Index swung back to declines, while Apple Inc. paced a rally in technology companies. The Treasury yield curve flattened, with 30-year bonds outperforming shorter-dated debt as traders moved toward a consensus that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month. The dollar returned to a nine-month high versus major peers. Crude slipped even as Russia’s oil minister expressed optimism that OPEC would reach a deal, with government data showing an increase in American supplies.
     The expectation Trump would expand fiscal stimulus to boost U.S. growth sparked a bond-market rout that this week pushed 30- year Treasury yields to their highest level this year, while buoying bank and industrial stocks. Central-bank officials, including Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, have said more fiscal support would bolster the case for tightening. Rate-hike odds were above 90 percent, even after a report today indicated inflation remains muted, with wholesale prices unexpectedly weak in October.
     “Sometimes we have to sit back and take a breath and say ‘we’ve gone too far too fast,”’ said Art Hogan, chief market strategist and director of research for Wunderlich Securities in Boston. “As much as we love to believe that all the pro-business things that the new administration and the Republican Congress is going to move forward with, that’s still next year’s business. You have to look at a market that in the short term is getting stretched.”
     The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent to 2,176.94 as of 4 p.m. in New York, after closing Tuesday within 0.5 percent of an all- time high set in August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average halted its longest rally in almost four months, slipping 0.3 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.4 percent.
     “Overall it seems the market has to pause a little bit to assess how far it’s gone since Trump’s win,” said Benno Galliker, a trader at Luzerner Kantonalbank AG in Lucerne, Switzerland. “We haven’t seen this kind of sector dispersion in a long time. Now everything has changed — it’s a paradigm shift.”
     The Stoxx Europe 600 Index has alternated between gains and losses for seven straight days. The gauge slipped 0.2 percent Wednesday after earlier jumping and falling as much as 0.6 percent. Bayer AG was one of the biggest contributors to the move, dragging down chemical companies after issuing 4 billion euros ($4.3 billion) of convertible bonds.
     The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose for a second day, adding 0.6 percent.
     In the Asia-Pacific region, stocks in New Zealand extended gains into Thursday, rising for a fourth straight session. Futures on equity benchmarks elsewhere in the region signaled losses, with Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures in Osaka slipping at least 0.2 percent with contracts on indexes in Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong.
     Thirty-year Treasury yields fell four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.92 percent, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. U.S. two-year yields rose less than one basis point to 1 percent. The gap between two- and 30-year yields declined to about 1.92 percentage points. It touched as low as 140 basis points in August.
     “The market is firming in its expectations that the Fed is going to go,” said Aaron Kohli, a fixed-income strategist in New York at BMO Capital Markets Corp., one of 23 primary dealers that trade with the central bank. “I don’t think the economic data is good this morning, but it also wasn’t bad enough to deter the Fed. We sold off very sharply in the last week and a half, and there’s some money that’s being put to work.”
     Traders assign about a 94 percent probability, the highest level this year, to the Fed boosting rates at its final meeting for the year on Dec. 13-14, futures contracts indicate.
     European bonds fell, with yields on Portugal’s 10-year bonds rising by 18 basis points to 3.65 percent. Italy’s 10-year yield increased seven basis points to 2.03 percent, while the rate on similar-maturity German bunds dropped to 0.30 percent.
     The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major peers, rose 0.3 percent. The gain built on a 2.8 percent surge from last week, which was the most since 2011.
     “The medium-term outlook for the dollar is still solid, and we expect it to strengthen well into the first quarter of next year,” said Ned Rumpeltin, the European head of currency strategy at Toronto-Dominion Bank in London. “But some in the market might adopt a cautious near-term stance ahead of the testimony and during the shaping of the new administration.”
     Currencies of commodity-producing nations, including the Australian dollar and South African rand, were among the biggest losers Wednesday. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell 0.3 percent as the yuan slid to its weakest point since December 2008.
     The yen was little changed early Thursday at 109.10 per dollar after slipping 2.4 percent over the past two sessions.
     West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery dropped 24 cents, or 0.5 percent. to settle at $45.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent for January settlement retreated 32 cents to $46.63 a barrel in London.
     Stockpiles climbed by 5.27 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, with a 1.5 million barrel gain forecast by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Refiners used 16.1 million barrels a day of crude, up 309,000 barrels from a week earlier. Russia is ready to support an OPEC decision to stabilize the market, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, with OPEC ministers due to meet Nov. 30 to discuss how to implement production cuts.
     “You would have expected to see more selling after such a big build in crude,” said Gene McGillian, manager of market research for Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “There’s a feeling that OPEC will come to some sort of an agreement later this month, which makes selling risky.”
     Copper and aluminum declined in London, extending their retreats from one-year highs reached last week, while zinc retreated from its highest close since 2010. Metals rallied last week on a combination of increased speculative interest in China and optimism President-elect Trump’s pledge to spend as much as $1 trillion on infrastructure will boost demand.
     Gold fell 0.3 percent Wednesday to $1,225.28 an ounce.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

 

“Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.” Ralph Waldo Emerson

As ever,
 

Karen

“In order to carry a positive action we must develop here a positive vision.” Dalai Lama

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Portfolio Manager &
Senior Vice-President

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Shichi-Go-San Day in Japan today:
Shichi–Go–San (七五三 ^?, lit. “Seven-Five-Three”) is a traditional rite of passage and festival day in Japan for three- and seven-year-old girls and three- and five-year-old boys, held annually on November 15 to celebrate the growth and well-being of young children.

Good to Know:  CITY GUIDE
If you’re traveling and don’t know the city, the Citymapper app has everything you need to get around, from information on available bicycles, to a path to your destination that keeps you out of the rain, to transportation schedules.  You’ll look as though you’ve lived there for years.  Citymapper is free for iOS and Android and is available for cities all over the world.

A quiet mind is able to hear intuition over fear.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A man walks through a garden on an autumn day in Srinagar, India on Tuesday. Danish Ismail/Reuters

A dirt road is illuminated by the supermoon at night at the Sierra de las Nieves (Mountain range of Snows) nature park and biosphere reserve in Parauta, southern Spain, on Monday. Jon Nazca/Reuters
Market Closes for November 15^th, 2016

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	18923.06	+54.37   +0.29%
S&P 500	2180.39	+16.19   +0.75%
NASDAQ	5275.621	+57.225   +1.10%
TSX	14756.10	+157.66
		+1.08%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	17668.15	-4.47
		-0.03%
HANG SENG	22323.91	+101.69
		+0.46%
SENSEX	26304.63	-514.19
		-1.92%
FTSE 100	6792.74	+39.56
		+0.59%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		1.537		1.550
CND. 30 Year Bond		2.166		2.192
U.S.    10 Year Bond		2.2207		2.2632
U.S. 30 Year Bond		2.9595		3.0133

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.74357	0.73901
US $	1.34486	1.35316
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.44189	0.69353
US $	1.07215	0.93271

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1226.95	1213.60
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	45.81	43.32

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1867, the first stock ticker is unveiled in New York City.
Number of the Day
6.8660
The value of one dollar rose as high as 6.8660 yuan in China’s tightly controlled domestic market during the Asian trading morning, its highest point since Dec. 9, 2008
Canada
By Eric Lam
     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose for a second day, surging the most in seven weeks, as energy producers advanced with the price of oil rebounding from an eight-week low.
     The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 1.1 percent to 14,756.28 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The equity benchmark is up 13 percent in 2016, making it the top performer among developed markets tracked by Bloomberg. Canadian stocks are about 10 percent more expensive than their peers in the S&P 500 Index.
     Global market gyrations sparked by the surprise election of Donald Trump as president of the U.S. calmed Tuesday, as a rout in bonds and emerging-market assets eased. Crude surged on the prospects of OPEC reaching a deal to curb output. Gold and silver advanced after a four-day rout fueled by demand for riskier assets at the expense of perceived safe havens.
     The reversals benefited Canadian equities, where energy and raw materials account for about one-third of the market. Energy producers rallied 2.8 percent Tuesday to lead gains across nine of 11 industries. Trading volume was 19 percent higher than the 30-day average. Financial services companies lagged 0.3 percent, with Manulife Financial Corp. dropping 0.4 percent to halt a four-day winning streak.
     Suncor Energy Inc. climbed 3.9 percent, the most in two weeks, even after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. exited its stake in the energy producer. Oil futures climbed 5.8 percent in New York, the biggest gain in seven months, as prices seesawed from the lowest close in eight weeks Monday after dropping 4.3 percent in three sessions.
     Raw-materials producers climbed 2.7 percent as a group, for a second day of gains following a two-day slide. Gold snapped its biggest three-day drop in more than a year amid signs that prices fell too far and too fast. The dollar also fell for the first time since last week’s U.S. presidential election.
     Barrick Gold Corp. added 5.3 percent, the most in a month, as billionaire investor George Soros more than doubled his holdings in the mining company in the third quarter after earlier selling 94 percent of his position in the previous quarter.
     Natural resource producers are the top-performing companies in the Canadian market this year, with materials stocks rallying 41 percent year-to-date on a rebound in commodities prices from gold to crude. Teck Resources Ltd., the nation’s largest diversified miner, is the top stock in the index, up almost six- fold this year as prices for coking coal and zinc have also surged.
US
By Oliver Renick
     (Bloomberg) — Donald Trump’s election has caused the biggest dispersion among U.S. equities in almost eight years. Professional stock pickers couldn’t be happier.
     Lockstep moves on the equities markets have been torn asunder while investors pour in cash as they dissect the potential implications from Trump policies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 Index have roared to records since his election, while technology-heavy indexes had slumped. In the S&P 500, the financial group’s 10 percent surge through Monday outpaced the worst-performing group — utilities — by almost 17 percentage points, a degree of divergence last seen in April 2009.
     For active managers who’ve seen their reputation battered this year amid some of the tightest trading ranges in history, the split along industry lines represents an opportunity to put to work skills some say are growing arcane in the era of passive investing. At the same time, Tuesday brought with it a reminder in the danger of rushing to judgment — financial shares slid as much as 1.7 percent before closing little changed, while tech stocks cut their post-election losses by nearly half.
     “You’re seeing money trying to chase the growth that’s perceived,” said Scott Colyer, chief executive officer of Advisors Asset Management in Monument, Colorado, where he oversees $18.5 billion. “This is a market where stock picking works and will reward people for buying some of the things that have been out of favor.”
     The S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent to 2,180.39 at 4 p.m. in New York, pushing its advance since Nov. 8 to 1.9 percent as tech shares paced gains after lagging behind. The Dow erased an early slide, climbing 0.3 percent to a fourth consecutive record close. The Nasdaq 100 Index jumped 1.3 percent, and the Russell 2000 Index added 0.3 percent to an all-time high for a second day. About 8.4 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 22 percent more than the three-month average.
     The pre-election jitters that pushed cash levels among money managers to near records gave way to bullish euphoria as investors added more than $14 billion to the biggest exchange- traded fund tracking the S&P 500 in the past week. That the stock market is suddenly making distinctions between winners and losers is a bonus to active managers who have seen money under their oversight shifted to passive ETFs and mutual funds that have outperformed for most of the year.
     What’s unusual about the level of dispersion within the equity market since the election is that recent instances of such disparity have come when the market’s been falling. The degree now being seen last occurred during the height of the financial crisis and the bottom of the dot-com bust 16 years ago. Most recently, measures of dispersion jumped during the selloff after Brexit, as the S&P 500 plunged at the start of the year and during a correction in August 2015.
     “This stands in contrast to the behavior following prior macro events over the last 18 months that were accompanied with correlations spiking in their aftermath,” analysts at Strategas Research Partners LLC wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. “Historically, declining correlations are consistent with a more supportive market backdrop.”
     Investors seem to agree, as they bolstered the SPDR S&P 500 ETF since Tuesday with the biggest five days of inflows since September 2015. The $14 billion surge was more than three times the net amount they had invested from the start of the year through the election.
     Flows into funds tracking specific industries showed enthusiasm for financial and health-care companies. More than $2 billion was added to the SPDR exchange-traded fund tracking financial companies on Thursday, the biggest single-day inflow in the product’s history. A fund tracking health care set a simultaneous record with more than $1 billion added the same day.
     Some of the biggest losers since Trump’s win reversed direction today, as Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp. added at least 1.9 percent to pace a tech rebound. Utilities rose after a four-day rout and energy producers rallied the most in seven weeks as crude surged nearly 6 percent, the most since April. The CBOE Volatility Index fell to a three-week low. An index of banks in the S&P 500 erased a selloff in the final minutes, after falling 2.2 percent, to close little changed.
     For investors like hedge fund manager Trip Miller, the ups and downs of 2016 have provided an opportunity to win on both the short and the long side of trades.
     “It hasn’t been one single thing this year, it’s been positions from top to bottom contributing,” Miller, founder and managing partner at Gullane Capital LLC in Memphis, said in an interview. His firm manages about $57 million. “Even though the market is up, we’ve also been able to buy names that were down that have been on our wish list. You have to be patient and be willing to sit on cash at a zero interest rate.”
     The main U.S. equity benchmark gained 3.8 percent last week on wagers Trump will enact a pro-business agenda, including loosening regulations and boosting infrastructure spending. The president-elect’s appointment of Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus as his White House chief of staff signaled a willingness to work with GOP lawmakers to pass significant legislation, though the specifics of the administration’s near-term agenda remain open to speculation.
     Investors are also considering what a Trump presidency might mean for Federal Reserve policy and the path for interest rates. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said yesterday that easier fiscal policy may require higher rates, but it’s too early to react to potential policy changes by the incoming administration. Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to testify on the economic outlook before lawmakers on Thursday. Odds for an increase in borrowing costs next month have risen to 96 percent from 80 percent a week ago.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

As long as you pursue pleasure, you are attached to the sources of pleasure;
and as long as you are attached to the sources of pleasure,
you cannot escape pain and sorrow.  The soul shines in the hearts of all living beings.
When you see the soul in others, you forget your own desires and fears,
and lose yourself in the service of others.
The soul shines equally in people on the farthest island, and in people close at hand.
Mundaka Upanishad

As ever,
 

Carolann

 

Only when he has ceased to need things can a  man
truly be his own master and so really exist.
–Anwar Sadat, 1918-1981

 

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Portfolio Manager &
Senior Vice-President

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends, 

Tangents:

ELEGY

 -by Leonard Cohen 

Do not look for him

In brittle mountain streams:

They are too cold for any god;

And do not examine the angry rivers

For shreds of his soft body

Or turn the shore stones for his blood;

But in the warm salt ocean

He is descending through cliffs

Of slow green water

And the hovering coloured fish

Kiss his snow-bruised body

And build their secret nests

In his fluttering winding-sheet.

That poem comes from one of Leonard Cohen’s books of poetry, Let Us Compare Mythologies.  A friend gave it to me after we had been to see Leonard Cohen during his last concert tour.   The concert consisted of  three straight hours of uninterrupted magic.

Gary and I were reminiscing on the weekend about what a great inspiration he was. I had friends in Montreal when I was growing up who used to run into him from time to time on the streets or in a deli and they always found him self-effacing;  unfortunately, I never did meet him in person in Montreal.  Gary remembers hearing Suzanne for the first time: he was in grade 12, and he decided to make a courageous visit to  a university (it happened to be Guelph) coffee-house (this was the sixties) and there was a folk musician at the coffee-house singing Suzanne and he thought he had never heard such a beautiful song before.  During university, Gary played guitar and sang in a folk band in any bar where they could find work – Suzanne remained a permanent part of the repertoire.   He can still recite the lyrics by heart.  Such beautiful lyrics…

And Jesus was a sailor 
When he walked upon the water 
And he spent a long time watching 
From his lonely wooden tower 
And when he knew for certain 
Only drowning men could see him 
He said “All men will be sailors then 
Until the sea shall free them” 
But he himself was broken 
Long before the sky would open 
Forsaken, almost human 
He sank beneath your wisdom like a stone 
And you want to travel with him 
And you want to travel blind 
And you think maybe you’ll trust him 
For he’s touched your perfect body with his mind….

Now Suzanne takes your hand 
And she leads you to the river 
She is wearing rags and feathers 
From Salvation Army counters 
And the sun pours down like honey 
On our lady of the harbour 
And she shows you where to look 
Among the garbage and the flowers 
There are heroes in the seaweed 
There are children in the morning 
They are leaning out for love 
And they will lean that way forever… 

Probably an inspiration for Gary to become a sailor.

RIP, Leonard.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A ‘supermoon’ sets behind Ocean Beach Pier Monday morning, while dozens of photographers who got up early observe it. The moon appears about 7% larger than normal and about 15% brighter during its full phase through Monday night, although the human eye is barely able to discern that difference. The moon hasn’t been this close to the Earth since 1948. It won’t be this close again until November 25, 2034. Peggy Peattie/San Diego Union-Tribune/AP

People release floating lanterns during the festival of Yee Peng in the northern capital of Chiang Mai, Thailand on Monday. Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

A man takes a photo of post-election Post-it notes pasted along a tiled walk at Union Square subway station in New York on Monday.Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

Market Closes for November 14, 2016

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	18868.69	+21.03   +0.11%
S&P 500	2164.20	-0.25   -0.01%
NASDAQ	5218.395	-18.719   -0.36%
TSX	14598.45	+43.04
		+0.30%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	17672.62	+297.83
		+1.71%
HANG SENG	22222.22	-308.87
		-1.37%
SENSEX	26818.82	-698.86
		-2.54%
FTSE 100	6753.18	+22.75
		+0.34%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		1.550		1.429
CND. 30 Year Bond		2.192		2.070
U.S.    10 Year Bond		2.2632		2.1501
U.S. 30 Year Bond		3.0133		2.9549

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.73901	0.74234
US $	1.35316	1.34708
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.45687	0.68640
US $	1.07668	0.92878

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1213.60	1267.50
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	43.32	44.66

Market Commentary:

On Nov. 14, 1972, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 1,000 for the first time, ending the day at 1,003.16.

Go to article »

On this day in 1986, the Securities and Exchange Commission fines Ivan Boesky $100 million for insider trading.

Canada

By Eric Lam

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks rose Monday, after tumbling the most in two months last week, bolstered by gains among gold producers, financial services companies and consumer discretionary shares.

     The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.3 percent to 14,598.51 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, after plunging 1.3 percent on Nov. 11. Only five of 11 industries in the S&P/TSX advanced on trading volume 34 percent higher than the 30-day average. The equity benchmark remains up 12 percent in 2016, making it the top performer among developed markets tracked by Bloomberg. Canadian stocks are about 9 percent more expensive than their peers in the S&P 500 Index.

     Toronto-Dominion Bank rose 2 percent while Royal Bank of Canada added 0.8 percent to lead the nation’s largest lenders higher. Manulife Financial Corp. advanced 3.3 percent to extend a four-day rally and was trading at the highest level in more than a year. The company, Canada’s largest life insurer, posted third-quarter profit that almost doubled on gains from its life insurance business and investments.

     Amaya Inc. jumped 14.4 percent, the most since February, to lead consumer shares higher after its founder made a cash offer to take the Canadian owner of the PokerStars online gambling service private in a deal valued at about $6.7 billion including debt. The offer, at C$24 for each outstanding common share, represented a 31 percent premium to Friday’s close at C$18.34 in Toronto. Amaya also reported third-quarter earnings and full- year projections that topped analysts’ estimates.

     Gildan Activewear Inc. added 5.1 percent for its biggest gain in 18 months after agreeing to buy the American Apparel Inc. brand for about $66 million. Gildan won’t be taking on any retail stores. American Apparel filed for bankruptcy Monday, less than a year after ending its first stint under court protection.

     Raw-materials producers added 0.6 percent as a group, rebounding from a two-day slide. Gold was down 0.8 percent, paring an earlier loss of as much as 1.3 percent. The precious metal has whipsawed after topping $1,300 an ounce in the immediate aftermath of Donald Trump’s surprise presidential victory. Investors initially seeking a haven from volatility have instead warmed to the idea of a Trump presidency that favors tax cuts and infrastructure spending to boost U.S. growth.

US

By Lu Wang

     (Bloomberg) — The stock market’s post-election bifurcation sharpened Monday as technology shares extended their worst performance since the start of the bull market on speculation Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies will translate into lower earnings.

     Apple Inc., Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc. led the S&P 500 Information Technology Index down 1.7 percent for the biggest retreat since September. The group stands out as the only industry that normally benefits from a rising economy not to rally on speculation Trump’s policies will stoke domestic growth. Tech stocks in the benchmark equity gauge have slumped 3.1 percent over four days, trailing the S&P 500 Index by 4.2 percentage points, the most since May 2009. Small caps in the Russell 2000 Index surged 1.2 percent to an all-time high.

     No single fact explains the tech rout though everything from trade and immigration policy to industry rotation to flat- out campaign retaliation have been cited. Technology is the biggest group in the S&P 500 by far and one of the only ones to consistently post earnings growth over the last 18 months.

     “Technology provides the productivity gains for the global economy and many of the large-cap names like Apple and Amazon were carrying the torch for the market,” Channing Smith, a managing director at Capital Advisors Inc. in Tulsa, Oklahoma, said by phone. The firm oversees about $1.8 billion. “Without their participating, that’s definitely going to create a headwind for the market.”

     The S&P 500 slipped less than one point for a second day of losses, with tech giants bearing the worst of the rout. The FANG block of Facebook, Amazon.com Inc., Netflix Inc. and Google parent Alphabet each fell more than 2.4 percent. The group has dropped every day since Trump’s victory, sinking 8 percent for the worst retreat since February amid concern about the impact of Trump’s policies on trade overseas, where U.S. technology companies thrive.

     The industry, which largely supported Hillary Clinton during her presidential campaign, may also face higher hurdles for expanding their footprints after some high-profile business leaders including Amazon Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos clashed with Trump during the election. Trump, responding to negative coverage in the Washington Post, which is owned by Bezos, maintained Bezos purchased the news organization to gain political influence and avoid antitrust scrutiny. Shares of the online retailer have lost more than $30 billion in value since Tuesday’s vote.

     “It’s a big deal with what potentially Trump could do,”said Blake Harper, an analyst that covers internet stocks at Loop Capital Markets LLC in Chicago. “If you look at investors in Alphabet, Facebook and Amazon, they’re stacking some type of operationality for them to continue to expand internationally and also expand into other different categories outside their core markets,” he said. “He definitely indicated he would pursue antitrust measures against companies like Amazon. You’d have more restrictive policies to prohibit expansion.”

     Any slowdown in tech earnings may deal a blow to a market that just emerged from a five-quarter profit slump, the longest since the global financial crisis. While S&P 500 income rose 2.7 percent in the third quarter, profit at tech firms expanded almost 8 percent, actual results and analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

     The decline in tech shares came after they extended their leadership at the fastest rate in four years, raising their representation in the S&P 500 by more than 1 percentage point to a 15-year high of 21.4 percent in the third quarter. From Apple to Facebook, mega techs now occupy half of the top 10 spots in ranks of the most valuable American companies, matching the number at the peak of internet mania.

     For now, the market seems to be holding up, with S&P 500 trading within 1.2 percent of an all-time high, as the retreat in tech stocks has been countered by rallies in financial and industrial companies, shares expected to benefit from Trump’s plans to boost fiscal spending and ease regulations. Banks climbed 2.3 percent Monday, extending their gains since Trump’s victory to 11 percent, while industrial stocks have added 5.2 percent in that time.

     “The market is getting ahead of itself here and selling off and being hard on tech,” said Timothy Ghriskey, who helps manage $1.5 billion as chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management LLC in New York. “Tech is where a lot of gains were, so as money gets shifted around to different sectors, meaning into financials and into health care and industrials, it has to come out of somewhere and a lot of it has come out of tech.”

 Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

When a man is deprived of the foundation that provides him everything,

his poverty loses its best virtue, simplicity, to become no more than disgraceful and sordid.

His wealth is no longer splendid, but becomes merely extravagant.

His appetites no longer remain within natural limits; they no longer have the one goal

of meeting the needs of his life; they become an end in themselves,

setting fire to his existence, and dancing madly by the light of the flames.

Rabindranath Tagore

 

As ever,

Carolann

 

Deciding what not to do is as important as

deciding what to do.

                  -Steve Jobs, 1955-2011

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

Tel: 778.430.5808

(C): 250.881.0801

Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895

Fax: 778.430.5828

www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On November 10^th, 1782, King George III wrote to Lord Shelburne:

Knavery seems to be so much the striking feature of its [America’s] inhabitants that it may not in the end be an evil that they will become aliens to this kingdom. 

November 11:  Martinmas/Veterans Day/Armistice Day:

St. Martin of Tours, France, was a popular bishop in the Middle Ages.  The English shortened the name of his feast day from Martin’s Mass to Martinmas, and the day fell at a time when people wanted to celebrate harvesting and wine making, it became a day for feasting and celebration.  A goose was often roasted for the occasion.  November II became Armistice Day in 1918 to mark the armistice between the Allies and the Central Powers that ended World War I.  The United States, England, and France celebrated the day jubilantly; many were sure there’d never be another war.  Now in England, France, and Canada, in particular, the day commemorates those who died in both World War I and II.  In 1954, the United States changed the day to Veterans’ Day, to commemorate those who have served in the armed forces during all the country’s wars.   
                                                                                                                          
from The Book of Holidays Around the World.

On November 11, 1918, Virginia Woolf wrote in her Diary:

Twenty-five minutes ago the guns went off, announcing peace.  A siren hooted on the river.  They are hooting still.  A few people ran to look out of windows.  The rooks wheeled round, and wore for a moment the symbolic look of creatures performing some ceremony, partly of thanksgiving, partly of valediction over the grave.  A very cloudy still day, the smoke toppling over heavily toward the east; and that too wearing for a moment a look of something floating, waving, drooping.  So far neither bells nor flags, but the wailing of sirens and intermittent guns. 

Also on this day in….

1951 – Direct-dial, coast-to-coast telephone service began with a call between the mayors of Englewood, N.J., and Alameda, Calif.

1954 – The U.S. Marine Corps Memorial, depicting the raising of the American flag on Iwo Jima in 1945, was dedicated in Arlington, Va.
1969 – “Sesame Street” debuted on PBS.

1997 – A judge in Cambridge, Mass., reduced Louise Woodward’s murder conviction to manslaughter and sentenced the English au pair to time served in the death of 8-month-old Matthew Eappen.

1997 – WorldCom Inc. and MCI Communications Corp. agreed to a $37 billion merger.

1982 – Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev died at age 75.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Prince William, Duke of Cambridge, watches children planting seeds during a visit to the Living Memory and Centenary Fields Projects in London on Thursday. Launched by the prince in 2014 and in partnership with the Royal British Legion, Centenary Fields helps remember those who lost their lives during WWI by securing and protecting outdoor recreational space in perpetuity for the benefit of future generations. Stuart C. Wilson/AP

A rider and his horse, from the Spanish Riding School of Vienna, perform a dress rehearsal for the media at the SSE Arena in London on Thursday. Peter Nicholls/Reuters

Market Closes for November 10, 2016

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	18807.88	+218.19   +1.17%
S&P 500	2167.48	+4.22   +0.20%
NASDAQ	5208.797	-42.275   -0.81%
TSX	14744.25	-15.66
		-0.11%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	17344.42	+1092.88
		+6.72%
HANG SENG	22839.11	+423.92
		+1.89%
SENSEX	27517.68	+265.15
		+0.97%
FTSE 100	6827.98	_83.86
		-1.21%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		1.429		1.371
CND. 30 Year Bond		2.070		2.020
U.S.    10 Year Bond		2.1501		2.0644
U.S. 30 Year Bond		2.9549		2.8541

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.74234	0.74507
US $	1.34708	1.3421
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.46679	0.68176
US $	1.08876	0.91847

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1267.50	1281.40
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	44.66	45.27

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Anna-Louise Jackson

     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell slightly after a three- day rally, bucking broader gains in global financial markets amid optimism that U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump’s fiscal- stimulus plans will boost economic growth.

     The S&P/TSX Composite Index lost 0.1 percent, dropping to14,744.18 in Toronto Thursday despite gains among industrial, financial and health-care stocks. The index gyrated up-and-down throughout the session. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. gained 4.2 percent and Cott Corp. rose 5.2 percent.

     The move ran counter to large-cap U.S. stocks, which rose with the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly hitting an all- time high before paring, while the S&P 500 Index came within 10 points of its previous record. Meanwhile the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index fell 1.6 percent, its biggest retreat since Sept. 9.

     Canadian industrial stocks jumped 2.5 percent to the highest level since March 2015, buoyed by a 10.1 percent rally for Bombardier Inc. The company forecast today that its annual profits will reach the high end of its previous outlook and reported a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss. Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Inc. and Russel Metals Inc. both added more than 5 percent.

     Shares of health-care companies rose 2.3 percent, bolstering a two-day rally of 6.4 percent. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. jumped 5.6 percent on news Blackstone Group LP, Carlyle Group LP and KKR & Co. are among buyout firms in talks with banks for financing to back their bids for the company’s Australian drug unit.

     Raw-materials stocks slumped 3.8 percent, led by a 16.2 percent decline for Silver Wheaton Corp. and a 11.4 percent tumble for Torex Gold Resources Inc. Meanwhile, shares of consumer-staples companies fell 3.1 percent to the lowest level since July.

US

By John Hyland

     (Bloomberg) — The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s first record close in three months comes amid a market drawing increasingly bright lines between what it views as winners and losers in a Donald Trump presidency.

     Consider that the 30-stock gauge’s 218-point ascent Thursday happened the same day the Nasdaq 100 Index dropped the most since September, their biggest divergence since the internet bubble burst. Weakness in technology stocks and a handful of defensive industries that soared in the first half held the S&P 500 Index’s gain to roughly a fifth of the Dow’s.

     The surge in stocks following a presidential election echoed 1996 and 1972, when the blue-chip index made fresh highs just after victories by Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon.

     On the upside were financial shares, perceived beneficiaries should Trump make good on threats to dismantle the Dodd-Frank Act, as well as industrial and materials stocks in anticipation of infrastructure spending. Along with technology shares, pain was felt in high-dividend industries such as household product makers, utilities and phone companies as bond yields surged.

     “People are going through the possibilities about what Washington looks like today and what Washington can do or not do for them,” said John Manley, who helps oversee about $233 billion as chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Funds Management in New York. “Corporations feel there’s a less restrictive hand. People may take that as a positive. It’s the end of the uncertainty.”

     The Dow rose 218.19 points, or 1.2 percent, to 18,807.88 at 4 p.m. in New York, topping its Aug. 15 record. The Nasdaq 100 Index lost 1.6 percent. The S&P 500 Index advanced 0.2 percent and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index jumped 1.6 percent and is up 4.7 percent since Trump’s election.

     Amazon.com Inc. fell 3.8 percent to lead the rout in technology. JPMorgan Chase & Co. jumped 4.6 percent and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. climbed 4.3 percent. Drugmakers advanced, led by Pfizer Inc.’s 4.3 percent rally. Caterpillar Inc. added 2.5 percent. Procter & Gamble Co. plunged 3.5 percent.

     Financial and health-care industries have surged since Trump’s surprise win on Tuesday, rallying on expectations that the president-elect and Republican-controlled Congress will roll back regulations. Trump’s promise to revive American infrastructure means commodities used to build everything from airports to bridges will benefit under his presidency, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

     “Yields are moving their way higher, that’s good for banks,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist and director of research for Wunderlich Securities in Boston. “If there’s going to be a friendlier regulatory environment that’s going to be good for banks. That’s the tailwind behind financials we haven’t seen for a long time.”

     While opinions vary about what’s behind the tech rout, one possibility was concern about the impact of Trump’s policies on trade overseas, where U.S. technology companies thrive. Others saw a rational retreat for a group that through Election Day had surged 11 percent in 2016, or even the potential for retaliation by the president-elect against an industry that didn’t exactly cozy up to him during the campaign.

     Department-store stocks rallied. Kohl’s Corp. jumped 12 percent after saying back-to-school sales were strong. Macy’s Inc. surged 5.6 percent after hiring Brookfield Asset Management to squeeze more money out of its real estate holdings. The largest U.S. department-store company posted another quarter of declining sales. Nordstrom Inc. surged 7.2 percent and Urban Outfitters Inc. added 5.6 percent.

     The CBOE Volatility Index rose 3.7 percent on Thursday. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX reached a four- month high on Friday. U.S. stocks had been heavily hedged as volatility surged leading up to the vote on speculation a Trump win had the potential to rattle markets as he had pledged to clamp down on international trade deals, while adopting divisive rhetoric throughout his campaign.

     In the 22 elections going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has fallen 15 times the day after polls close, for an average loss of 1.8 percent. Stocks reversed course and moved higher over the next 12 months in nine of those instances, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

     With the election uncertainty out of the way, investors are also weighing prospects for the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate increase. Odds for a December move have increased to 82 percent from 78 percent a week ago. A report today showed jobless claims declined from an almost three-month high ahead of the election.

 

Have  a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

Those who are focused on the objects of the senses, become attached to those objects.

From attachment comes desire; and from desire comes anger; from anger comes confusion of mind;

from confusion of mind comes loss of memory; from loss of memory comes loss of intelligence;

and from loss of intelligence comes destruction.

The Bhagavad Gita

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

A generation which ignores history has no past and no future.

                                               -Robert Heinlein, 1907-1988                      

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Portfolio Manager &

Senior Vice-President

 

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 

Tel: 778.430.5808

(C): 250.881.0801

Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895

Fax: 778.430.5828

www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day in…

1938, “Kristallnacht”, Germany.

1942, James Agate wrote in his diary [Ego] (The Torch landings at Casablanca, Algiers and Oran had taken place the day before):
A glorious day, in every sense of the word.  Alexander’s great victory [Alamein] and the invasion by Americans of French North Africa have put the people of this country into better fettle than they have known since 1925, when, at Melbourne on the third day of the second Test Match, Hobbs and Sutcliffe put on 283 runs for England’s first wicket and sent the Stock Exchange up two points.

1989, the fall of the Berlin Wall begins as citizens begin demolishing the wall and East German government opens 10 new border crossings.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A street performer dressed as the Statue of Liberty holds photos of US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton at the financial Central district in Hong Kong on Wednesday after Trump won the presidency. Bobby Yip/Reuters

Water droplets cover a fallen leaf in Tiergarten central park in Berlin on Wednesday. Fabrizio Bensch/Reuters
Market Closes for November 9^th, 2016

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	18589.69	+256.95   +1.40%
S&P 500	2163.26	+23.70   +1.11%
NASDAQ	5251.074	+57.585   +1.11%
TSX	14759.91	+103.07
		+0.70%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	16251.54	-919.84
		-5.36%
HANG SENG	22415.19	-494.28
		-2.16%
SENSEX	27252.53	-338.61
		-1.23%
FTSE 100	6911.84	+68.71
		+1.00%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		1.371		1.273
CND. 30 Year Bond		2.020		1.913
U.S.    10 Year Bond		2.0644		1.8565
U.S. 30 Year Bond		2.8541		2.6156

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.74507	0.75278
US $	1.34216	1.32841
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.46498	0.68260
US $	1.09151	0.91616

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1281.40	1282.35
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	45.27	44.98

Market Commentary:
Numbers of the Day
9.4%

The percentage decline in the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar.
29% 

The percentage of both Hispanic and Asian voters that Mr. Trump was on track in exit polls to draw, defying expectations that his support among minority groups would collapse because of his disparaging remarks about illegal immigrants from Mexico and proposal to ban the entry of Muslims to the U.S. 

Canada
By Eric Lam
     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks joined surging markets around the world as investors bet U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump would move ahead with pro-growth policies, buoying the country’s natural-resource producers.
     The S&P/TSX Composite Index added 0.7 percent to 14,759.91 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, joining U.S. stocks in rising after the Republican’s election upset on Tuesday night. Surge Energy Inc. and Canadian Energy Services & Technology Co. jumped at least 6.5 percent as energy companies led gains in the equity benchmark.
     “I don’t think this is the end of the world, or even the beginning of the end of the world,” said Tom Caldwell, chief executive officer at Caldwell securities Ltd., which manages about C$1.5 billion ($1.1 billion). “The best way to undercut a revolution is to give the revolutionaries power, because they have to confront what is doable. That will moderate Trump along with his advisers.”
     Just what exactly Trump intends to do with the power he’s won — and how closely that lines up with his campaign rhetoric — will be revealed over the coming months, leaving no shortage of uncertainty for equity investors to navigate. Canada’s manufacturing base, for instance, is vulnerable as Trump may push to change the long-standing North American Free Trade Agreement, Caldwell said.
     Trump campaigned on a pledge to renegotiate or potentially end NAFTA, a pact that has existed between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico since 1994 and has been a boon to the Canadian economy.                         
     The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner, purchasing about three quarters of all Canadian exports worth almost C$400 billion in 2015 according to Statistics Canada data. The U.S. is also the biggest foreign investor in Canada, with C$388 billion in investment, or about half of all foreign direct investment. Canada invested about C$449 billion in the U.S. in 2015, the main destination for funds.
     Companies that derive significant revenue from south of the border declined, as auto-parts supplier Magna International Inc., which lost 3.9 percent for its biggest drop since July. West Fraser Timber Co., which got 55 percent of its revenue from the U.S. in 2015, fell 6.6 percent.
     Canada’s big banks and energy producers will be fine, especially if TransCanada Corp. wins approval for Keystone XL under a Trump presidency, Caldwell said. TransCanada jumped 3 percent, its biggest gain since January, on hopes Trump would move to approve the company’s pipeline from the oil sands to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
     “Keystone looks like a key positive,” said Stephen Lingard, portfolio manager with Franklin Templeton Solutions, a unit of Franklin Templeton Investments. Lingard and his team oversee C$9.5 billion in Canada, and the firm manages $733 billion globally. “If that gets re-opened, that’s a benefit for the oil and gas sector, which frankly needs a lifeline given how tough the fundamentals have been.”
     Lingard said he was surprised volatility isn’t higher, and that may have to do with Trump’s conciliatory tone after his victory.
     “I do think a lot of his initial message on being very conciliatory, more statesman-like than populous has played a role in this fairly muted market reaction,” he said. “You didn’t know which Trump would show up.”
     Raw-materials producers added 1.7 percent as a group as gold surged overnight the most since Britain’s Brexit vote in June, before paring gains. Canadian producer Barrick Gold Corp. advanced 1 percent. HudBay Minerals Inc., which produces zinc and copper, rose 4.2 percent as industrial metals also advanced.
     “The gold guys will love this,” Paul Conibear, chief executive officer, Lundin Mining Corp., said in a phone interview. Lundin surged 6.8 percent. “Gold historically has already worked best as a safe haven when there’s uncertainty on the U.S. dollar, uncertainty on world economies.”
     Kash Pashootan, fund manager at First Avenue Advisory in Toronto, planned to deploy at least 5 percentage points of the 20 percent cash position he had built up in his portfolios today depending on how the markets reacted. 
     “Certainly we view this as a buying opportunity,” he said. “Be selective, as volatility isn’t a one-day event.”
     Pashootan is targeting some of his own dividend-paying holdings that have recently pulled back, including Aecon Group Inc. as well as interest-rate plays Enbridge Inc., BCE Inc. and Emera Inc. as the Federal Reserve may now hold off on raising interest rates in December after the surprise election results, he said.
US
By Anna-Louise Jackson
     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose in heavy trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly eclipsing its all-time closing high, as shares of banks to heavy equipment manufacturers rallied amid speculation Donald Trump will pursue business-friendly policies.
     Health-care shares and lenders surged as investors unwound bets that a win by Hillary Clinton would bring stronger regulatory scrutiny. The SPDR S&P Biotech exchange-traded fund rose the most since 2008, while Pfizer Inc. and Merck & Co. jumped at least 6 percent. JPMorgan Chase & Co. rose 4.6 percent to a record, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. had its best one-day gain in 4 1/2 years.
     The S&P 500 Index rose 1.1 percent to 2,163.26 at 4 p.m. in New York, extending its advance after rising above its average prices during the past 50 and 100 days. The Dow climbed 256.95 points, or 1.4 percent, to 18,589.69, a two-month high. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.1 percent, and the Russell 2000 Index increased 3.1 percent, its best since January. About 12 billion shares traded on U.S. exchanges, 80 percent more than the three-month average and the most since the Brexit selloff in June.
     “Our base case is we’re more likely to see a more moderate president than we saw as a candidate and the market’s agreeing with that,” said Lowell Yura, head of multi-asset solutions for BMO Global Asset Management in Chicago, which oversees $238 billion. “We don’t see a huge impact to short-term earnings and short-term economic growth.”
     An early knee-jerk selloff in global stocks and a rally in haven assets reversed on wagers that Trump would increase fiscal spending to spur economic growth, and as he struck a more conciliatory tone in his first speech as president-elect. The CBOE Volatility Index tumbled 23 percent Wednesday, the most in five years, as the measure of market turbulence retreated from a four-month high reached on Friday.
     A Trump victory had been portrayed by analysts as having the potential to unhinge markets banking on a continuation of policies that coincided with the second-longest bull market in S&P 500 history. While Republican control of both houses of Congress may enable the party to enact sweeping legislation that would be considered pro-business, concern persists over the impact from Trump’s pledges to clamp down on immigration to the U.S. and renegotiate free-trade agreements with countries including Mexico.
     “People focus on the fact that his acceptance speech kind of changed the direction of the market,” said Krishna Memani, New York-based chief investment officer at Oppenheimer Funds Inc., which oversees $223 billion. “It was far more conciliatory and far more fiscal-focused than these acceptances typically are — that made a world of difference.”
     A basket of stocks identified by Morgan Stanley as most likely to benefit from a Trump win surged 6.4 percent. The group includes 53 companies ranging from drugmaker Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. to construction-materials producer Martin Marietta Materials Inc. Among the S&P 500’s 11 main groups, financials rose 4.1 percent, while utilities sank 3.7 percent, the first time since 2009 that the biggest industry winner and loser moved more than 3 percent during a single day.
     Among other shares boosted by the Republican’s win, prison operators soared on speculation the new administration will rescind a government contract phase-out. Corrections Corp. and Geo Group Inc. jumped more than 21 percent.
     Companies gaining on Trump’s plans to boost infrastructure spending included equipment provider United Rentals Inc., which capped its steepest advance in almost eight years, while Caterpillar Inc. added 7.7 percent, the most since 2011. Vulcan Materials Co. climbed 10 percent to an all-time high.
     Along with the potential for a lighter regulatory burden, banks were also boosted by soaring bond yields as investors’ inflation expectations climbed on speculation a Trump administration and Republican Congress will ramp up spending to lift growth. Investors wagered higher rates will bolster financials’ earnings, sending Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America Corp. up more than 5.3 percent, with the former jumping the most since 2012.
     Click here for more on the winners and losers after the Trump victory.
     Wednesday’s action was a far cry from the dour sentiment overnight as investors sent equity futures tumbling when it became clear Trump would pull off a historic upset. S&P 500 futures plunged by the maximum 5 percent loss permitted on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange before trading curbs were triggered, then pared their decline to less than 1 percent by today’s open.
     When things last night looked most grim, at least one billionaire investor was willing to step in to buy. Carl Icahn left President-elect Trump’s victory party in the early hours of the morning to bet about $1 billion on U.S. equities, he said today in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “I thought it was absurd that the market, the S&P was down 100 points on Trump getting elected,” Icahn said in a phone interview.
     Companies potentially sensitive to Trump’s trade plans retreated Wednesday. Coca-Cola Co. and Procter & Gamble Co. decreased at least 1.4 percent to weigh on consumer staples. Hospital operators Tenet Healthcare Corp. and HCA Holdings Inc. tumbled more than 10 percent on speculation the new president will move to repeal Obamacare.
     The S&P 500 rose for a third session for the first time since September, with the gains putting it on track for the best week in two years. A rally was sparked Sunday night by news the FBI had resolved its investigation of Clinton’s e-mails. Heading into yesterday’s vote, most polls had the Democratic candidate ahead by several points. The benchmark increased 2.6 percent on Monday and Tuesday, its third-biggest ever in the two days before a presidential election, following its longest selloff in 36 years.
     As the initial turbulence eased, odds for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in December climbed back to levels seen before Trump’s victory, after plunging below 50 percent while the outcome unfolded. The market-implied chance of a move next month is 86 percent, the same as the probability on Tuesday afternoon.
     “The U.S. that Trump inherits is doing pretty well economically,” said Nandini Ramakrishnan, a strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in London. “From an investment perspective, this is not something that we would say is entirely negative as the market may see just this morning. There may be potential opportunities with some of these selloffs.”
     Regardless of Wednesday’s rally, next-day moves in the S&P 500 are useless in telling what comes after, as gains or losses over the first 24 hours predict the market’s direction 12 months later less than half the time. In the 22 elections going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has fallen 15 times the day after polls close, for an average loss of 1.8 percent. Stocks reversed course and moved higher over the next 12 months in nine of those instances, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

Free yourself from anger and desire, which are the causes of sin and conflict,
and thereby make yourself whole.  This is the essence of yoga;
this is the means by which you come to know the soul, and thereby attain the highest spiritual state.
Learn to meditate.  Close your eyes; clam your breathing; and focus your attention
on the center of consciousness.  Thus you will master the senses, the emotions, and the intellect –
and thereby free yourself from desire and anger.
The Bhagavad Gita

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

In democracy it’s your vote that counts.  In feudalism it’s your count that votes.
                                                                                  -Mogens Jallberg

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Portfolio Manager &
Senior Vice-President

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

My November Guest

My Sorrow, when she’s here with me,
Thinks these dark days of autumn rain
Are beautiful as days can be;
She loves the bare, the withered tree;
She walked the sodden pasture lane.

Her pleasure will not let me stay.
She talks and I am fain to list:
She’s glad the birds are gone away,
She’s glad her simple worsted gray
Is silver now with clinging mist.

The desolate, deserted trees,
The faded earth, the heavy sky,
The beauties she so truly sees,
She thinks I have no eye for these,
And vexes me for reason why.

Not yesterday I learned to know
The love of bare November days
Before the coming of the snow,
But it were vain to tell her so,
And they are better for her praise.

Robert Frost 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kenyan comedians prepare villagers for a mock-vote for the 2016 US presidential elections in the ancestral home of President Barack Obama in Nyangoma Kogelo, west of Kenya’s capital Nairobi, on Tuesday. Moses Eshiwani/Reuters

Lucas Museum of Narrative Art (LMNA) registrar Nicole Manis unpacks the Yoda puppet, used in the original movies, at the Star Wars Identities exhibition at the 02 in London on Tuesday. Dylan Martinez/Reuters

An actress dressed in a period costume walks through the snow in St. Petersburg, Russia, on Tuesday. Dmitri Lovetsky/AP
Market Closes for November 8^th, 2016

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	18332.74	+73.14   +0.40%
S&P 500	2139.53	+8.01   +0.38%
NASDAQ	5193.488	+27.315   +0.53%
TSX	14656.84	+4.39
		+0.03%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	17171.38	-5.83
		-0.03%
HANG SENG	22909.47	+108.07
		+0.47%
SENSEX	27591.14	+132.15
		+0.48%
FTSE 100	6843.13	+36.23
		+0.53%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		1.273		1.221
CND. 30 Year Bond		1.913		1.871
U.S.    10 Year Bond		1.8565		1.8261
U.S. 30 Year Bond		2.6156		2.6021

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.75278	0.74797
US $	1.32841	1.33695
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.46324	0.68342
US $	1.10149	0.90786

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1282.35	1283.05
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	44.98	44.89

Market Commentary:
Number of the Day
129.1 million
About 129.1 million people cast votes in the 2012 presidential election, according to Pew Research, about 53.6% of the voting-age population. That percentage ranked 31st out of the 35 countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Canada
By Eric Lam
     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks ended the day slightly higher, giving back earlier gains as investors waited to see the results of the U.S. presidential election.
     The S&P/TSX Composite Index added 4 points to 14,656.84 at 4 p.m. in Toronto all but erasing a gain of 0.4 percent. The equity benchmark rallied the most in three weeks Monday, and is now up 13 percent in 2016, the top performer among developed markets tracked by Bloomberg. Canadian stocks are now 12 percent more expensive than their peers in the S&P 500 Index.
     In the U.S., equities rose a second day, adding to the strongest rally in eight months as voters headed to the polls with Democrat Hillary Clinton holding a narrow lead in most pre- election surveys. Donald Trump continued to hold out on whether he would accept the results of the election. The S&P 500 Index gained 0.4 percent in New York, capping its biggest back-to-back gain since June.
     Raw-materials producers and lenders led the gainers in the index while energy producers ended the day down 0.2 percent. Oil traded near $45 a barrel in New York, little-changed after advancing the most in more than two weeks Monday. OPEC increased its forecast for global oil demand next year, anticipating cheaper crude will spur increased consumption.
     Teck Resources Ltd. rose 2.6 percent, to the highest close in three years, as spot metallurgical coal topped $300 a metric ton for the first time since flooding in Australia curbed output five years ago. Teck is the best-performing stock in the S&P/TSX this year with a more than five-fold increase.
     Health-care shares plunged with Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. warning of more possible surprises for investors. Valeant tumbled 22 percent to the lowest level in six years. New management at the struggling drug maker cut the company’s annual profit forecast to well below estimates after reporting a $1.22 billion net loss on writedowns of some of its U.S. businesses. Paul S. Herendeen, the new chief financial officer, warned there may be further surprises in store for investors. Valeant shares have plunged 86 percent this year.
     Health-care is the worst-performing industry among the 11 groups in the S&P/TSX this year, plummeting 78 percent as shares of Valeant and smaller peer Concordia International Corp. have lost most of their market value. The drugmaking industry has come under intense scrutiny over the past year for skyrocketing pharmaceutical prices and become the focus of government investigations. Concordia lost 10 percent for a fourth day of losses, trading at the lowest in three years.
US
By Joseph Ciolli and Rebecca Spalding
     (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks advanced, with the S&P 500 Index posting its best two-day climb since June, as investors awaited election results amid a tight contest for president.
     The S&P 500 rose 0.4 percent to 2,139.56 at 4 p.m. in New York, after erasing a 0.4 percent slide, to close at a two-week high. The gauge climbed as much as 0.7 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 73.14 points, or 0.4 percent, to 18,332.74, and the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.5 percent. About 7 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 6 percent more than the three-month average.
     “There’s still a relief rally occurring following yesterday’s big gain,” said Bill Schultz, who oversees $1.2 billion as chief investment officer of McQueen, Ball & Associates Inc. in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. “Clinton represents less change, and positive news for her will be a positive for the market. Any uncertainty removed from an outlook is always good.”
     The main benchmark for U.S. equity continued to climb after surging the most in eight months yesterday. The FBI on Sunday reiterated that Hillary Clinton’s controversial handling of her e-mails wasn’t a crime, bolstering speculation on her chances for victory in the election. The CBOE Volatility Index edged higher today after halting on Monday its longest streak of gains ever.
     A provider of real-time analysis of voter turnout estimates that Clinton has earned more early votes than Republican Donald Trump in battleground states including Florida, Iowa and Nevada. Analysis by Slate.com’s Votecastr showed Trump trailing in Pennsylvania after holding an earlier lead.
     Votecastr is using an unproven technique to deliver real- time updates on voter turnout in combination with polling done ahead of Election Day. The site says its information is not making a prediction on who will win any states.
     Clinton and Trump have spent the past days campaigning in key states as polls showed the race had tightened. State-by- state surveys indicate a narrow lead for the Democratic candidate, while websites that take bets on the presidential victor show her odds of winning the White House are generally about 80 percent.
     The S&P 500 is recovering from its lowest level since June, and on Tuesday touched its average prices during the past 50 and 100 days, after arresting a nine-day slide at its 200-day moving average. The benchmark has wandered in a roughly 100-point band since reaching a record in August as investors assessed the political landscape, corporate profits, economic data and the likelihood for higher interest rates. The index closed today just 2.3 percent from its all-time high.
     “It’s hard to really make too much of today’s move,” said Yousef Abbasi, a global market strategist at JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC. “We’ve lost a little bit of steam as energy has headed into the red, but people are still in the wait-and-see mode. We met resistance right at the 50-day and 100-day moving average, so technicals might be in play.”
     Speculation on Clinton’s chances also helped bolster wagers on a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase next month. Data compiled by Bloomberg based on fed funds futures trading show an 86 percent probability of higher borrowing costs by year end, up from 76 percent on Friday.
     “Put your seat belts on because this is going to be a bumpy ride,” said Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based money manager at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $172 billion. “As the polls close later today, investors will be moving in a chaotic fashion to get ahead of the information flow.”
     Amid the political drama, earnings season is winding down, with only a handful of S&P 500 members releasing Tuesday. Analysts now predict profit growth of 2.5 percent in the July- September period for the benchmark’s constituents, reversing forecasts for a 1.6 percent decline at the start of the month. Retailers Macy’s Inc., Kohl’s Corp. and Nordstrom Inc. are due to report later this week.
     Among shares moving Tuesday on earnings news:
* Priceline Group Inc. added 6.6 percent, rising to a record after its earnings, excluding a writedown, exceeded estimates.
* CVS Health Corp. marked the worst drop in seven years after cutting its full-year adjusted earnings range.
* Hertz Global Holdings Inc. shares plummeted 23 percent, the most since 2008, after reporting a quarterly profit that badly trailed estimates and cut its annual earnings forecast.
* Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. tumbled 22 percent as new management cut the company’s profit forecast to well below predictions and suggested there may be more bad news on the way.
* Kindred Healthcare Inc. dropped to a 13-year low after also reducing its earnings outlook and saying it’s exiting the skilled nursing facility business.
     Elsewhere in today’s trading, 10 of the S&P 500’s 11 main industries rose, with utilities, phone and industrial companies increasing more than 0.5 percent. Energy producers were little changed as crude oil slipped. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. rallied 7.1 percent as copper futures touched a one-year high on speculation supply will tighten amid signs of stabilizing demand in China.
     Mondelez International Inc. and Campbell Soup Co. jumped at least 3.2 percent after a report said Brazil’s 3G Capital is seeking up to $10 billion for a new fund aimed at an acquisition in the consumer group. Kellogg Co. and General Mills Inc. added more than 2.6 percent.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

We are always comparing what we are with what we should be.
This measuring ourselves all the time against something or someone
is one of the primary causes of conflict.  Now why is there any comparison at all?
If you do not compare yourself with another
you will be what you really are.
Krishnamurti

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

To love and win is the best thing.  To love and lose,
the next best.
                       -William Thackeray, 1811-1863

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Portfolio Manager &
Senior Vice-President

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

 
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
On Nov. 7, 1917, Russia’s Bolshevik Revolution took place as forces led by Vladimir Ilyich Lenin overthrew the provisional government of Alexander Kerensky.
Joni Mitchell’s birthday today, b. November 7^th, 1943.

BIG YELLOW TAXI
…Don’t it always seem to go
That you don’t know what you’ve got
‘Til it’s gone
They paved paradise
To put up a parking lot…
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Russian paratroopers jump through a rainbow from an IL-76 transport plane during a joint Serbian-Russian military training exercise, ‘Slavic Brotherhood,’ in the town of Kovin, Serbia, on Monday. Marko Djurica/Reuters

A delegate from Cook Island attends the opening session of the Climate Conference in Marrakech, Morocco, on Monday. Climate negotiators have started work on implementing the Paris pact on global warming amid uncertainty over how the US election will impact the landmark deal as temperatures and greenhouse gases soar to new heights. Mosa’ab Elshamy/AP

A Hindu devotee holds offerings as she worships the Sun God in the waters of a pond during the religious festival of Chhat Puja in Kolkata, India, on Monday. Rupak De Chowdhuri/Reuters
Market Closes for November 7^th, 2016

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	18259.60	+371.32   +2.08%
S&P 500	2131.52	+46.34   +2.22%
NASDAQ	5166.172	+119.801   +2.37%
TSX	14652.45	+143.20
		+0.99%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	17177.21	+271.85
		+1.61%
HANG SENG	22801.40	+158.78
		+0.70%
SENSEX	27458.99	+184.84
		+0.68%
FTSE 100	6806.90	+113.64
		+1.70%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		1.221		1.159
CND. 30 Year Bond		1.871		1.816
U.S.    10 Year Bond		1.8261		1.7762
U.S. 30 Year Bond		2.6021		2.5618

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.74797	0.74589
US $	1.33695	1.34068
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.47633	0.67736
US $	1.10425	0.90559

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1283.05	1302.80
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	44.89	44.07

Market Commentary:
Canada
By Eric Lam
     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks snapped a four-day slide as global markets rallied as investors speculate Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the U.S. election have improved a day ahead of the vote.
     The S&P/TSX Composite Index added 1 percent to 14,652.45 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, for the biggest increase in three weeks. The index had lost 1.9 percent over the previous four sessions. The equity benchmark is up 13 percent in 2016, the top performer among developed markets tracked by Bloomberg. Canadian stocks are now 14 percent more expensive than their peers in the S&P 500 Index.
     Equities surged around the world after the FBI decided to stick to its previous view that Clinton’s handling of her e- mails wasn’t a crime. Clinton leads Donald Trump by three percentage points among likely voters, according to the final Bloomberg Politics national poll before Tuesday’s election. Clinton has 44 percent support to Trump’s 41 percent when third- party candidates are included.
     Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Nova Scotia each climbed 1.1 percent to lead a rally in the nation’s largest lenders. Financial services and energy stocks gained at least 1.4 percent as 10 of 11 industries in the S&P/TSX advanced on trading volume 9.3 percent lower than the 30-day average. Raw-materials producers slumped 1.4 percent, the lone laggard, as gold sank the most in a month offsetting gains in copper and steel.
     Suncor Energy Inc. and Encana Corp. rose more than 2.5 percent as crude rebounded to halt a six-day losing streak that was the longest since July. Futures rose 1.9 percent in New York to join the broader market rally. A magnitude 5 earthquake struck near the oil hub at Cushing, prompting some pipeline operators to shut operations as a precaution.
     Concordia International Corp. plummeted 37 percent, extending the lowest levels in more than three years, after third-quarter earnings and revenue fell well short of estimates.
     The struggling drug maker also suspended its forecasts to assess its business under new leadership. Concordia shares have wiped out 95 percent of their value this year.
     Air Canada surged 7.5 percent, the biggest increase in almost six months, after the airline tightened its full-year profit target. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation amortization and aircraft rent will probably increase 6 percent to 8 percent this year, the company said. Air Canada had previously forecast 4 percent to 8 percent growth. Air Canada’s earnings also exceeded estimates.

US
By Joseph Ciolli
     (Bloomberg) — The resolution of the FBI’s investigation into Hillary Clinton’s e-mails two days before the presidential election could hardly have come at a worse time for investors betting on equity volatility into the election.
     Relief swept over stock markets Monday after the FBI reiterated Clinton’s controversial handling of her e-mails wasn’t a crime, sending the CBOE Volatility Index tumbling 17 percent. Bets the slump will continue rose to the highest in almost three months relative to wagers on an increase. The S&P 500 Index surged 2.2 percent to 2,131.52 at 4 p.m. in New York, the biggest one-day gain in eight months.
     The latest revelation quelled apprehension over the election’s outcome after Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey said on Oct. 28 the agency was examining new e-mails potentially related to its review of Clinton’s use of a private server. Investors still smarting from being caught wrong-footed after the Brexit vote pushed the VIX up 39 percent last week, extending its longest-ever streak of gains to the highest level since June amid narrowing polls and an increasingly unpredictable election.
     “The end of the investigation lends a little more clarity to the situation,” Bill Schultz, who oversees $1.2 billion as chief investment officer of McQueen, Ball & Associates Inc. in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, said by phone. “This gets us closer to reducing and possibly eliminating one of the main uncertainties surrounding the election, and you’re seeing that reflected in positioning.”
     Open interest on put contracts for the VIX swelled to 45 percent of the same measure for calls, the most since Aug. 18, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s high relative to the average of 40 percent for the past year.
     The worry last week also pushed the spread between expected and realized volatility into the 99th percentile since 1990, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. With the measure that extended, there could be a “VIX collapse if uncertainty declines post-election,” David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at the firm, wrote in a Nov. 4 client note.
     American stocks have shown themselves sensitive to Clinton’s presidential prospects, with futures rising in September during the first debate she was widely considered to have won. The S&P 500 tumbled about 20 points in the 40 minutes after Comey’s initial letter was made public. While the race has been tightening before tomorrow’s vote, Clinton still maintains a narrow lead over Republican rival Donald Trump, according to an average of polls by RealClearPolitics.
     The S&P 500 on Monday halted its longest losing streak since 1980. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 371.32 points, or 2.1 percent, to 18,259.60, a four-week high. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 2.4 percent. Banks, technology companies and drugmakers paced the rebound, with lenders capping their steepest climb since August. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Microsoft Corp. advanced more than 2.9 percent. About 7.1 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 8 percent more than the three-month average.
     “We’ve been down nine straight days as concerns over a potential Trump victory put a lot of caution in the market,” said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities Inc. in Los Angeles. “Some of that is being relieved with the comments from the FBI about the Clinton e-mail investigations. All today guarantees is that there will be more volatility for the rest of the week following tomorrow’s election.”
     The S&P 500 has advanced in the five days before the vote in 20 of the past 22 presidential election cycles, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Bespoke Investment Group LLC, with an average 1.9 percent climb in the run-up to votes going back to 1928. After today’s 2.2 percent rally, the index rose 0.3 percent over the five sessions before tomorrow’s election.
     Hedge fund manager David Tepper said he’s supporting Clinton for president after initially being open to backing Trump. He said in a CNBC interview on Monday that she will probably be to the right of her party’s platform on economic policy. The head of Appaloosa Management also said he’ll vote for Republican candidates running for the House and Senate.
     “There isn’t certainty she’ll win, but she is gaining some momentum and at least we got one worry out of the way,” said Christian Stocker, a strategist at UniCredit Bank AG in Munich, Germany. “This should last until Wednesday, when markets decide what the next direction is.”
     Speculation on Clinton’s chances also helped boost odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase next month. Data compiled by Bloomberg based on fed funds futures trading show an 80 percent probability of higher borrowing costs by year end, up from 76 percent on Friday.
     The earnings season is drawing to a close, with about 85 percent of S&P 500 companies having reported. Of those, 56 percent beat sales expectations and 76 percent exceeded profit forecasts. Marriott International Inc. and News Corp. are among firms posting results today. Analysts forecast a profit increase of 2.5 percent for the benchmark’s members in the third quarter. If that holds, it will end the longest earnings recession since the financial crisis.
     Among shares moving on earnings news, Sysco Corp., the largest North American food distributor, surged the most in five years after posting first-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates.

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

As long as the brain, which is so heavily conditioned, is measuring, “the more,” “the better,”
moving psychologically from this to that, it must inevitably bring about a sense of conflict, and this is disorder.
Not only the words more and better, but the feeling, the reaction, of achieving,
gaining – as long as there is this division, duality, there must be conflict.  And out of conflict is disorder.
Krishnamurti

 

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

Absolutely.  If it’s at all possible.
                -Bob Dylan, b. 1941-
(responding to a journalist who asked if he would be attending the December 10^th Nobel Prize dinner in Stockholm)

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Portfolio Manager &
Senior Vice-President

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
In science one tries to tell people, in such a way as to be understood by everyone, something that no one ever knew before.
But in poetry, it’s the exact opposite.  -Paul Dirac

UNTITLED
 -Emily Dickinson

Morns are meeker than they were,
The nuts are getting brown,
The berry’s cheek is plumper,
The Rose is out of town.
The maple wears a gayer scarf,
The field a scarlet gown,
Lest I should be old fashioned
I’ll put a trinket on.

On this day in:
1922, King Tut’s tomb was found
1946, UNESCO  was founded
1979, the Iranian hostage crisis begins as militants stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The Chicago River is dyed blue near the Michigan Avenue bridge in honor of the Chicago Cubs World Series win in Chicago on Friday. Cubs fans have packed the streets outside Wrigley Field hours before the start of the parade to honor the World Series champions. Erin Hooley/Chicago Tribune/AP

A woman joggs with her dog through a forest near Cologne, Germany on Friday. Henning Kaiser/AP
Market Closes for November 4th, 2016

MarketIndex	Close	Change
DowJones	17888.28	-42.39  -0.24%
S&P 500	2085.18	-3.48  -0.17%
NASDAQ	5046.371	-12.037  -0.24%
TSX	14509.25	-74.17
		-0.51%

International Markets

MarketIndex	Close	Change
NIKKEI	16905.36	-229.32
		-1.34%
HANGSENG	22642.62	-40.89
		-0.18%
SENSEX	27274.15	-156.13
		-0.57%
FTSE 100	6693.26	-97.25
		-1.43%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous  % Yield
CND.10 Year Bond		1.159		1.200
CND.30 Year Bond		1.816		1.847
U.S.   10 Year Bond		1.7762		1.8115
U.S.30 Year Bond		2.5618		2.6020

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.74589	0.74664
US$	1.34068	1.33934
Euro Rate1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.49339	0.66962
US$	1.11390	0.89774

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London GoldFix	1302.80	1301.00
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	44.07	44.66

Market Commentary:
On [TV financial news programs], if the stock is near its high, 90% of the guests like it, if it is near is low, 90% of the guests hate it. –Michael L. Burke, 1935-2014.

Intelligence, May 2002.
Number of the Day
$12 billion
John Paulson’s drug-company investments has led to big losses and extended a period of uneven performance that has left the firm managing about $12 billion, down from $38 billion in 2011.
Canada
By John Hyland
     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks extended losses for a fourth day, closing at their lowest level since September as trade data overshadowed a third month of job gains.
     The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.5 percent to 14,509.25 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, with its longest decline since August. Raw materials producers led the decline, falling 1 percent. Energy companies dropped for the sixth consecutive day, their longest losing streak since May, retreating after oil capped its biggest weekly decline since January.
     Stronger-than-forecast jobs data was countered by a trade deficit that widened to a record C$4.1 billion ($3.1 billion) in September as export volumes fell 0.8 percent from the previous month. However, the spike in the trade deficit was largely on the back of a one-time purchase related to an offshore oil project, described by Statistics Canada as “exceptionally large.” Excluding that impact, the trade gap narrowed, the agency said.
     Financial stocks declined for the third time in four days amid U.S. election angst. The group fell to its lowest level since mid-October, as Toronto-Dominion Bank and Bank of Nova Scotia slumped to two-week lows.
     Raw-materials producers fell as gold miners retreated, even as the precious metal held near a one-month high. Investors weighed the need for a haven before next week’s U.S. presidential election against expectations of higher interest rates. Detour Gold Corp. slumped to a seven-month low in an “overdone” selloff, according to Cormark Securities analyst Richard Gray. Kinross Gold Corp. lost 2.3 percent.
     Energy shares declined 0.5 percent to their lowest level since September, after oil capped its biggest weekly loss in almost 10 months. Crude slumped as hopes fade that OPEC will be able to implement a promised deal to cut production and ease global oversupplies. Suncor Energy Inc. fell 1 percent to a two- week low, and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. fell to its lowest level since September.
     Canadian stocks are now 13 percent more expensive than their peers in the S&P 500 Index. The S&P/TSX trades at 22.1 times earnings, compared with 19.5 for the S&P 500 Index. The S&P/TSX is the top performer this year among developed equity markets tracked by Bloomberg.
US
By Dani Burger
     (Bloomberg) — The S&P 500 Index extended its longest losing streak in more than three decades, as data bolstered speculation interest rates will rise before year-end and investors remained wary before the looming presidential election.
     Equities faded in afternoon trading as declines among consumer, financial and energy shares overshadowed gains in drugmakers. Procter & Gamble Co. and Amazon.com Inc. were among the biggest drags, sinking more than 1.5 percent. Insurer Willis Towers Watson Plc tumbled 5.6 percent after cutting its full- year revenue forecast, and Wells Fargo & Co. lost 1.6 percent. Crude’s biggest weekly drop since January weighed on oil and gas producers.
     The S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent to 2,085.18 at 4 p.m. in New York, after erasing a 0.5 percent advance. The gauge has retreated 3.1 percent over nine days, the longest since 1980 when it dropped 9.4 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 42.39 points, or 0.2 percent, to 17,888.28, and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.2 percent. The CBOE Volatility Index rose for a ninth session, the longest ever. About 7.3 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 12 percent more than the three-month average.
     “The jobs number should increase rate-hike odds and push up the dollar further, but nothing is happening in the markets ahead of the election,” said Dennis Debusschere, a senior managing director and global portfolio strategist at Evercore ISI in New York. “All expectations of the rate outlook and by extension the markets are being muted by election uncertainty.”
     A report today showed payrolls climbed by 161,000 last month following a 191,000 gain in September that was larger than previously estimated. Wages rose from a year earlier by the most since 2009, and the jobless rate fell to 4.9 percent. The figures are likely to keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise borrowing costs next month for the first time in 2016.
     While shares have almost always risen in the days before a presidential election, anxiety about the outcome of the Nov. 8 vote has weighed on stocks, overshadowing even a Fed meeting earlier this week. The S&P 500 fell Friday as low as 2,083, its average price during the past 200 days, and a technical level it hasn’t breached since the rout that followed the U.K.’s June vote to leave the European Union.
     The main U.S. equity benchmark posted a fourth weekly decline in the last five, down 1.9 percent as polls showed a dwindling lead for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Republican nominee Donald Trump showed strength in Iowa and Ohio pre-Election Day voting, while Clinton’s advantage in early balloting looked favorable in North Carolina and Nevada, according to a Bloomberg Politics analysis.
     The tightening race sent the CBOE Volatility Index surging 73 percent during the past two weeks, and dragged the S&P 500 to a four-month low. The measure of market turbulence known as the VIX reversed an earlier decline Friday as it rose 2 percent to 22.51, the highest since the Brexit aftermath.
     “The U.S. elections are the elephant in the room for markets at the moment,” said Christian Gatticker, Zurich-based head of research at Julius Baer Group Ltd. “The best case is gridlock where Hillary wins and works with a Republican Congress, while a worst case is a hung vote.”
     Hedge fund manager Dan Loeb said he’s cutting risk in his portfolio ahead of the vote on concern that surprises could rattle financial markets. “We’ve reduced our exposures, we’ve cut some positions and increased some hedges,” Loeb said Friday in a conference call discussing results at Third Point Reinsurance Ltd., the Bermuda-based insurer where he oversees investments. “And it isn’t just about the president. Obviously who wins is going to impact the market. I think equally important is what happens in the House and Senate.”
     Before today’s payrolls report and the approaching election, the Fed on Wednesday kept rates unchanged in a widely expected move, and indicated the argument for raising them has strengthened. Other data this week was mixed, with modest expansion in manufacturing last month, while services industries growth slowed. Traders are pricing in a 74 percent chance the central bank will act in December, up from 69 percent a week ago.
     “It’s worth noting that unemployment is the single best determining factor of market direction,” said Ross Yarrow, director of U.S. Equities at Robert W. Baird & Co. In London. “The S&P 500 almost never peaks for the cycle until unemployment troughs.”
     Traders are also parsing corporate results as the earnings season winds down. More than four out of five S&P 500 companies have reported so far, with 56 percent beating sales estimates and 75 percent topping profit forecasts. Analyst predict earnings for members of the index grew 2.5 percent in the July- September period, snapping a five-quarter stretch of declines.
     Among shares moving on earnings news, NRG Energy Inc. surged the most since December, after raising profit guidance for 2016. Mohawk Industries Inc. jumped 7.8 percent to its best one-day gain in five years after the flooring maker’s results topped estimates.
     Fluor Corp. sustained its steepest drop since 2008 after cutting its profit forecast because of a delayed construction project, and its earnings target for next year fell short of analysts’ expectations. Symantec Corp. slumped to a 2 1/2-month low after its current quarter sales and profit outlooks missed predictions and the chief financial officer stepped down.

 

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

 

Be magnificent!

Our responsibility is no longer to acquire, but to be.
Rabindranath Tagore

As ever,

 

Carolann

The only real failure in life is one not learned from.
-Anthony J. D’angelo, b. 1974

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Portfolio Manager &
Senior Vice-President

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
On Nov. 3, 1936, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was re-elected in a landslide over Republican Alfred M. ”Alf” Landon.
November 3, 1817 – The Bank of Montréal opens its first branch and trades its first shares.
November 3, 2016, the Chicago Cubs beat the Cleveland Indians 8-7 to win the World Series, ending the team’s 108-year drought.

NOVEMBER
The last red berries shrivel.  Night comes early, dawn late.  The sun is weaker.  Ice is on the birdbath, frost on the car.  Perhaps it is already snowing.  Certainly, it’s damp and raw.  Rain is forecast.  Now is the time to act, to begin.  As Ishmael says in Moby Dick, “whenever it is a damp, drizzly November in my soul….I account it high time to get to sea as soon as I can.”  He means it’s time for human deeds.  Without our contribution, nothing will happen, life will have no meaning without our experience, the world cannot evolve, life on earth cannot become more abundant.  “We have it in our power to begin the world over again,”  said Tom Paine.  “Start by doing what’s necessary; then do what’s possible; and suddenly you are doing the impossible,”  said St. Francis of Assisi.  All it takes is patience, grace, intention, and the right moment. –Cosmo Doogood’s Urban Almanac.
   Venus crosses the star-rich area of Sagittarius this month, reaching its greatest elongation; Mercury also reaches its greatest elongation.
November 6^th: Daylight Savings Time Ends
November 11^th: Remembrance Day
November 14^th: Full moon
November 29^th: New Moon
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The Chicago Cubs celebrate after winning Game 7 of the Major League Baseball World Series against the Cleveland Indians on Thursday in Cleveland. The Cubs won 8-7 in 10 innings to win the series 4-3. Gene J. Puskar/AP

Fallen leaves cover a BMW on a rainy autumn day in Belgrade, Serbia, on Thursday. Marko Djurica/Reuters
Market Closes for November 2^nd, 2016

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	17930.67	-28.97   -0.16%
S&P 500	2088.66	-9.28   -0.44%
NASDAQ	5058.406	-47.159   -0.92%
TSX	14583.42	-11.30
		-0.08%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	17134.68	-307.72
		-1.76%
HANG SENG	22683.51	-126.99
		-0.56%
SENSEX	27430.28	-96.94
		-0.35%
FTSE 100	6790.51	-54.91
		-0.80%

Bonds

Bonds		% Yield		Previous  % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond		1.200		1.185
CND. 30 Year Bond		1.847		1.828
U.S.    10 Year Bond		1.8115		1.7990
U.S. 30 Year Bond		2.6020		2.5641

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.74664	0.74670
US $	1.33934	1.33923
Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.48741	0.67231
US $	1.11056	0.90045

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	1301.00	1303.75
Oil	Close	Previous
WTI Crude Future	44.66	45.34

Market Commentary:
Number of the Day
38.08%
The percentage of earnings paid out as dividends by U.S. companies over the past 12 months, according to data provider FactSet. That’s just a fraction below the 38.19% reached during the height of the financial crisis, when the ratio’s rise was due to a steep fall in earnings.
Canada
By John Hyland
     (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks erased gains to finish lower with global equities as investor anxiety rises ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election. Crude slumped to a five- week low, dragging down energy shares, while airlines slid amid speculation competition will increase.
     The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.1 percent to 14,583.42 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, erasing a gain of as much as 0.5 percent. The S&P 500 Index slid for an eighth day and the CBOE Volatility Index had an equal number of gains as investors pulled back on riskier assets amid polls showing the U.S. election tightening.
     The election’s outcome on Canadian equities is not clear, though the U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner and Republican Donald Trump has suggested he would amend or scrap the North American Free Trade Agreement if he prevails Tuesday. Democrat Hillary Clinton has indicated she would crack down on drug pricing, possibly hurting the fortunes of health-care companies.
     Eight of 11 groups in the benchmark index for Canadian equities retreated Thursday. Airlines led industrials lower as Air Canada dropped the most in three months after the federal transport minister signaled his intention to raise foreign ownership limits for carriers, a move that may create more competition for the country’s airlines. WestJet Airlines Ltd. also tumbled.
     Energy shares slipped as crude oil dropped to a five-week low. Enbridge Inc. fell 1.9 percent after reporting an unexpected loss in the third quarter, while Encana Corp. rose the most in three months after reporting a surprise profit.
     Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. led the health- care sector lower, falling 8.8 percent. The shares fell more than 9 percent yesterday on a marketing lawsuit and reports that it’s exploring a sale of some eye-surgery assets worth $2.5 billion.
     Canadian stocks are now 15 percent more expensive than their peers in the S&P 500 Index. The S&P/TSX trades at 22.2 times earnings, compared with 19.6 for the S&P 500 Index. The S&P/TSX is the top performer among developed equity markets tracked by Bloomberg in 2016.
     Raw-materials producers advanced after snapping a four-day rally. Gains were once again centered around gold miners, with Kinross Gold surging 8.9 percent to its highest level since July 2016 after its CEO vowed to continue a disciplined approach to M&A. Barrick Gold Corp. added 1.2 percent.
     Financial stocks rose for the first time in three days as the election angst showed signs of abating. Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. climbed 2.9 percent, its best since August. Manulife Financial Corp. advanced 0.9 percent, while Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Nova Scotia gained to propel the group higher.
US
By Rebecca Spalding and Joseph Ciolli
     (Bloomberg) — The 2016 election has confounded pundits, upended precedent and now it’s spurring unusual patterns in the U.S. equity market. To wit: stocks almost always rise in the days before the country picks a president. This year, they’re falling.
     The S&P 500 Index has advanced in the five days before the vote in 20 of the past 22 cycles, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Bespoke Investment Group LLC. While the gauge has climbed an average 1.9 percent in the run-up to elections going back to 1928, it’s down 1.8 percent since Monday, with two market days left until polls open Nov. 8. The index fell 0.4 percent Thursday, to 2,088.66 at 4 p.m. in New York., slumping to the lowest since July 5 as losses accelerated in the late afternoon.
     Blame it on narrowing polls and the experience of traders during the last political drama they were asked to navigate, Britain’s vote to secede from the European Union, which proved costly to anyone going all-in on odds makers. A tightening race has sent the S&P 500 down eight straight days, the longest slump since 2008, and pushed the CBOE Volatility Index to its lengthiest streak of gains on record.
     “It all has to do with certainty and uncertainty, that’s what’s driving markets: the headlines and politics are the biggest headlines,” said Ernie Cecilia, chief investment officer at Bryn Mawr Trust, which oversees $9.6 billion in Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania. “The recent decline has more to do with the top of the ticket polls getting tighter. The market hadn’t factored in the possibility of a Donald Trump presidency.”
     Just four months removed from the U.K.’s shock decision to leave the European Union in an outcome not predicted by betting markets, anxiety levels have spiked in the final week of an election season marked by twists that have seen Democrat Hillary Clinton’s once dominant lead over Republican Donald Trump wither in recent polls. The Brexit shock sent the S&P 500 tumbling 5.3 percent in two days, while the VIX spiked the most in five years.                     
     The hard-to-predict election is adding anxiety to a market that already has plenty to fret about. Valuations remain their highest since 2009 as central banks around the world have kept monetary policies loose. U.S. companies today trade at 77 percent higher valuations on a price-earnings basis than they did when the 7 1/2-year bull market began.
     Even as valuations have grown, earnings haven’t kept pace. Corporate profits have contracted for five quarters in a row, the longest run since the financial crisis. The stretched equity prices and sluggish earnings have made some traders skittish. Investors have pulled $100 billion from mutual and exchange traded funds that track U.S. stocks since January, an almost unprecedented rate.
     While forecasts predict the earnings recession is set to end this quarter as most S&P 500 companies that have reported thus far have beaten estimates, the good news for corporate profits hasn’t been enough to shake investors’ election anxiety. Trading in options that protect against a market decline reached its highest level since April last week, ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting where officials signaled the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates in December.                    
     “Markets are always adjusting and they’re handicapping in the short run what the outcome will be,” said Kevin Caron, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based market strategist and portfolio manager who helps oversee $180 billion at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. “Everyone wants to talk about the election but the market is moved by more of the latter points: the outlook for earnings and the outlook for interest rates.”
     Corporate results did little to buoy the market Thursday, with Facebook Inc. suffering the steepest slide since February after executives indicated the company will see slower revenue growth and higher costs. American International Group Inc. dropped the most in four months after posting a profit that was short estimates. Marathon Oil Corp. jumped 11 percent after reporting a smaller-than-predicted loss, while production exceeded forecasts.
     The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index slumped 2.9 percent to a four-month low after people familiar with the matter said U.S. prosecutors are bearing down on generic pharmaceutical companies in a sweeping criminal investigation into suspected price collusion. Endo Pharmaceuticals Plc plunged more than 19 percent, the most in six months.
     Almost 80 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings this season, with 56 percent beating sales expectations and 76 percent topping profit forecasts. Analysts forecast profit for the benchmark’s members will rise 1.6 percent for the period, on pace to end the longest earnings recession since the financial crisis.                      
     The S&P 500 ended below the technically sensitive 2,100 level yesterday for the first time since July 7. The Dow Jones Industrial Average today slipped 28.97 points, or 0.2 percent, to 17,930.67. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.9 percent as Facebook paced a selloff in technology companies, and health- care dropped to an eight-month low. About 7.3 billion shares traded hands on U.S. exchanges, 12 percent more than the three- month average.
     Investors yesterday were unmoved by the Federal Reserve’s widely expected decision to stand pat on interest rates. Policy makers reinforced expectations for a hike in December after saying the argument for higher borrowing costs strengthened further amid accelerating inflation. Traders are pricing in a 78 percent chance the central bank will act next month.
     Ahead of the government’s monthly payrolls report, a reading today showed filings for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose to the highest level in almost three months. Another measure indicated service industries expanded less than projected in October, consistent with moderate growth in the biggest part of the economy. Data also showed factory orders in September rose more than forecast.

 

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

 

Be magnificent! 

Satisfy one’s desires, certainly, but which ones?
And to what extent?
To determine precisely what I want, and how.
Children?  Money?  Glory?  How?
Swami Prajnanpad

As ever,

 

Carolann

 

People don’t notice whether it’s winter or summer when they’re happy.
                                                           -Anton Chekhov, 1860-1904

 

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Portfolio Manager &
Senior Vice-President

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com