Category: Events

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office attending the Bloomberg Screentime 2025 Conference. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On Oct. 8, 1480 Great Stand on the Ugra River: Standoff between forces of Akhmat Khan, Khan of the Great Horde, and Ivan III, Grand Prince of all Rus, ends with a Tatar-Mongol retreat, leading to the disintegration of the Horde
On Oct. 8, 1645 First hospital in Montreal, Quebec, the Hôtel-Dieu de Montréal, is founded by nurse Jeanne Mance
On Oct. 8, 1945 President Harry S. Truman announced that the secret of the atomic bomb would be shared only with Britain and Canada.
On Oct. 8, 2004 Lifestyle guru Martha Stewart reported to prison to begin serving a sentence for lying about a stock sale. Go to article

The Red Sea experienced ‘one of the most extreme environmental events on Earth’ 6 million years ago
The Red Sea became a desert about 6.2 million years ago, before a massive flood from the Indian Ocean turned it into a waterway again.

‘Closest view’ yet of interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS captured by Mars orbiter
The European Space Agency’s ExoMars orbiter has captured the closest view yet of the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS. The images reveal the comet’s bright coma but show no signs of a tail.

‘Harry Potter’ materials land three scientists Nobel Prize in chemistry
Researchers have won the 2025 Nobel Prize in Chemistry “for the development of metal–organic frameworks.”

Bear enters Japanese supermarket and pounces on customer
Two people were injured Tuesday when a bear rampaged through the sushi section of a Japanese supermarket.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Chuzhou, China
Drivers merge on to a motorway after passing through a toll station as they make their way home at the end of a national holiday
Photograph: STR/AFP/Getty Images

London, UK
Sleeping Head by Lucian Freud on display at Christie’s auction house, where it is expected to fetch between £2m and £3m
Photograph: Yui Mok/PA

​​​​​​​New York, US
The harvest supermoon rises behind the Statue of Liberty and the Brooklyn skyline
Photograph: Adam Gray/AP
Market Closes for October 8^th , 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46601.78	-1.20
		—
S&P 500	6753.72	+39.13
		+0.58%
NASDAQ	23043.38	+255.02
		+1.12%
TSX	30501.99	+150.27
		+0.50%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	47734.99	-215.89
		-0.45%
HANG SENG	26829.46	-128.31
		-0.48%
SENSEX	81773.66	-153.09
		-0.19%
FTSE 100*	9548.87	+65.29
		+0.69%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.190	3.183
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.725	3.703
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1171	4.1230
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7075	4.7231

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7167	0.7169
US $	1.3952	1.3948

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6223	0.6164
US $	1.1627	0.8600

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3979.00	3949.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.55	61.73

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1871, the Great Chicago Fire began, destroying much of the city’s downtown. Real estate prices exploded, capital poured into the city and Chicago was reborn as the “city of the big shoulders,” with skyscrapers of brick and stone.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 30,501.99 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.6%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.3%.
First Majestic Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 11.3%.
Today, 133 of 214 shares rose, while 78 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.6% below its 52-week high on Oct. 6, 2025 and 37.2% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.3% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6 on a trailing basis and 19 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.85t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.83% compared with 6.79% in the previous session and the average of 7.54% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 93.2738| 1.8| 44/7
Information Technology | 91.2294| 2.9| 9/0
Industrials | 14.6176| 0.4| 22/7
Utilities | 3.2406| 0.3| 6/8
Consumer Staples | 1.2178| 0.1| 7/4
Health Care | -0.3415| -0.4| 1/3
Consumer Discretionary | -0.8774| -0.1| 7/2
Real Estate | -2.8892| -0.6| 3/15
Communication Services | -7.0392| -1.1| 1/4
Energy | -15.8801| -0.3| 20/18
Financials | -26.2893| -0.3| 13/10
Shopify | 62.3700| 3.3| -32.2| 51.9
Celestica | 19.0600| 7.2| 51.0| 168.2
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 16.0100| 2.0| -32.3| 110.4
RBC | -10.8000| -0.5| 23.8| 16.8
CIBC | -10.8400| -1.5| -28.8| 23.4
Bank of Montreal | -10.8500| -1.2| 21.9| 27.2
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday rebounded from yesterday’s blip, a first loss in seven sessions, buoyed by elevated commodity prices, even as market watchers are divided on whether or not Canada Prime Minister, Mark Carney, had a successful meeting on trade matters with U.S. President, Donald Trump, yesterday.
Today, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 150.27 points or 0.5% at 30,501.99, leaving it just 30 points shy of Monday’s record close of 30,531.88.
Sectors were mixed, with Base Metals, boosted by record gold prices, up 3.4%, and Info Tech up near 3%.
Telecom was the biggest loser, down 1%.
In reference to gold, Rosenberg Research published a note today in which it said decomposing equity market returns across the main drivers revealed some notable trends and takeaways.
In it, the research said Canada, Japan, and India have seen the largest earnings lift.
It noted the TSX has seen fundamental tailwinds, 30% share of YTD returns, from the huge rally in gold, and thus the gold miners, as well as the banks, but added 60% has come from an expanding forward price earnings (P/E) multiple (from 15x to 17x).
On economics, The Canadian Press is reporting premiers remain at odds over how best to respond to U.S. tariffs, a day after Prime Minister Mark Carney left a meeting in Washington with U.S. President Donald Trump without announcing any breakthroughs on a trade deal.
Speaking at a conference in Toronto hosted by BMO and Eurasia Group, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he remains prepared to cut off shipments of energy, minerals and other exports if the United States refuses to relent on tariffs.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, also speaking at the U.S.-Canada Summit, said she still doesn’t support halting shipments south.
But CTV News is reporting U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is dismissing any prospect of a comprehensive auto deal with Canada, according to three sources in the room when he made the comments.
Lutnick made the comments during a discussion under Chatham House Rules at the Eurasia Group’s Canada-U.S. Summit in Toronto on Wednesday, a day after the second in-person meeting in Washington between Trump and Carney.
According to the sources, Lutnick said the United States could continue buying parts from Canada, “but that’s about it.”
The U.S. has a 25% tariff on vehicles imported from Canada that are not compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) since April.
Meanwhile, one Macquarie strategist thought yesterday’s meeting between Trump and Carney “didn’t go as poorly as some… made it sound”.
After all, noted Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, Trump exhibited a fondness for Carney, which he never did for Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau.
“And if that’s the case,” Wizman said, “the long-term dis-inflationary overhang from U.S. import tariffs in Canada may eventually fade.
That’s an optimistic view, of course, for the CAD, relatively speaking.
It would mark the emergence from the very slow growth experienced by Canada in Q2, when GDP declined by 1.5%.”
Over the summer, the U.S. hiked its tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, with Canada introducing a 25% counter-tariff on U.S. steel and aluminum.
Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist at BMO Financial Group, said: “Surprisingly, despite hefty duties on steel, U.S. production has nary risen on a sustained basis, at least not through September.
This reflects two things: steel imports have yet to decline much; and, capacity utilization is close to its long-run mean, so production is likely near its short-term limit.
This suggests that until new capacity is added and production increases, pressure could build on steel prices when imports decline, as appeared to be the case in 2018-19.”
Of commodities today, gold continued its record run higher with its second day above the US$4,000 mark on high demand and buying pressure despite a higher dollar.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $59.30 to $4,063.70 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose for a fourth day, climbing on supply risks even as a report showed U.S. inventories rose above expectations last week amid fresh warnings the market is oversupplied.
WTI oil for November delivery closed up $0.82 to settle at US$62.55 per barrel, while December Brent oil was last seen up $0.83 to US$66.28.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A renewed wave of dip buying powered a rebound in stocks on speculation equities have more room to run after a brief respite in the six-month rally from the edge of a bear market.
The insatiable appetite for stocks that’s already driven the S&P 500 up over 35% from its April lows sent the benchmark to fresh all-time highs, energizing investors betting the bull market is nowhere near its end.
Momentum-chasing traders kept piling into equities after a series of records fueled by factors such as corporate resilience and the restart of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence has trumped recent calls around a bubble forming in the high-profile tech names that have led the rally.
“With price-to-earnings ratios for today’s tech giants still well below those of the tech firms at the peak of the dotcom bubble, we think the bull market remains intact,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The S&P 500 surpassed 6,750. The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.2%.
Nvidia Corp. led gains in megacaps as chief Jensen Huang told CNBC that demand for Blackwell chips is “really, really” high.
Cisco Systems Inc. is escalating competition with Broadcom Inc. in connecting AI data centers.
A gauge of small caps added 1%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.13%.
A $39 billion US debt sale saw demand falling slightly short of expectations.
The dollar hit the highest since August.
Gold topped $4,000.
With a slim economic calendar amid the US government shutdown, investors scoured the minutes of the latest Fed meeting.
Officials showed a willingness to lower rates further this year, but many expressed caution driven by concerns over inflation.
At Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Luis Alvarado says the Fed is clearly not on a preset path and data-dependency is now more necessary than before, especially as officials attempt to calibrate between conflicting goals.
“We still expect two more quarter-point rate cuts by the end of this year, and two more next year,” he noted.
Jeff Roach at LPL Financial noted that tariffs were the most talked about topic during the latest Fed meeting.
“Futures markets may turn out to be more accurate than the FOMC’s collective projections, especially if inflation consistently declines in 2026.
Investors should expect two more cuts this year but a pause at the January 2026 meeting,” he said.
At Evercore, Krishna Guha highlighted that “many” Fed officials noted the strong high-tech investment while “several” flagged the possibility that AI adoption could weaken labor demand.
And that would be a sign that AI macro debates are starting to break into the Fed policy discussion.
“There was no alarm about stock prices, and while stocks have accelerated higher since the September meeting, we continue to see no sign that the Fed leadership is prepared to shift focus from balancing labor and inflation risks to managing risks of market excess,” Guha said.
Despite headline risks, markets have been strikingly calm as investors continue to wait for a catalyst amid a dearth of economic data, noted Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
The S&P 500 hasn’t seen a move of at least 1% since August.
And an equity advance of the magnitude we’ve experienced in the past six months was seen in just five other instances since 1950, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
When US stocks hit a record in September in the past, they proceeded to rally in the fourth quarter, gaining 4.8% on average during that time, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac’s data going back to 1950.
Looking ahead, Sunday will mark the third year of the current bull market, with the S&P 500 almost doubling in the span.
“For much of this period, technical factors have led the rally, with demand from retail, institutional, foreign investors, and corporate management teams,” Hackett noted.
“More recently, fundamental factors have added to the enthusiasm.”
Among those, he cited accelerating economic and earnings growth, along with anticipation of fiscal and monetary tailwinds.
The ebullience driven by AI has spurred recent calls for consolidation on concerns about the rally being excessive after a $16 trillion surge in the S&P 500 from its April lows.
In fact, Wednesday’s bounce came in the aftermath of a mild pullback that halted a seven-day run for the benchmark.
“Those streaks didn’t even begin to illustrate how hot some sectors of the market have become, and you can’t fault investors for getting a little nervous,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
“In fact, it’s very encouraging. A little pain is good for the soul.”
To Peter Oppenheimer at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., it’s too early to be worried about a bubble in high-flying US technology stocks.
The strategist said the rally has been accompanied by robust earnings growth.
In past bubbles, the market was driven higher mainly by speculation.
Still, he reiterated his recommendation that investors seek diversification to avoid risks around a narrow US stock rally and higher competition in the AI space.
“Every little dip has been successfully ‘bought’ with both hands by investors for months now,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“It does indeed look like we’ll need further evidence that the colossal spending on AI is not going to produce any serious ROI for a long time before the stock market responds in a meaningfully negative way.”
While the market has experienced a significant rally, driven by AI and macro tailwinds, there are emerging signs of momentum divergence that require careful monitoring, according to Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“Investors should stay long, but remain vigilant, particularly regarding overextended stocks and a government shutdown that seems no closer to resolution,” he said.
“A brief period of consolidation or a mild pullback would be widely viewed as a buying opportunity.”
Bank of America Corp. clients were net sellers of US equities for the fourth-straight week, with outflows from both stocks and equity exchange-traded funds, according to strategist Jill Carey Hall.
‘Far Less Destruction’
Heavily concentrated markets are another lingering concern amongst market participants who draw parallels to the dotcom era, according to Jeff Buchbinder at LPL Financial.
He noted that the tech sector made up roughly 33% of the S&P 500 at the end of February 2000, which is just below the roughly 35% weight today. While market concentration is a “real risk,” valuations of top tech names seem more reasonable in comparison
to the late-1990s, he noted.
“The odds of an AI bubble that bursts are not zero, but today’s AI cycle is better capitalized than the 1990s telecom buildout and appears more durable and profitable in comparison,” Buchbinder said.
“AI is coming faster and probably will leave far less destruction in its wake.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI is raising more financing than initially planned, tapping backers including Nvidia Corp. to lift its ongoing funding round to $20 billion, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* Cisco Systems Inc. is releasing a new chip and networking system meant to connect AI data centers across hundreds of miles, a move that escalates competition with Broadcom Inc.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google wants to retain the right to bundle its popular mapping and video apps with its Gemini AI service, a lawyer for the company told a federal judge Wednesday, pushing back on a Justice Department proposal that would bar the practice.
* Paramount Skydance Corp. has discussed its interest in acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. with Apollo Global Management, according to people familiar with the matter.
* David AI Labs Inc. a startup selling audio data sets to help train artificial intelligence models, has raised $50 million from investors in a new round of funding — signaling a growing market for startups that provide the building blocks for AI development.
* An asset manager controlled by a unit of Jefferies Financial Group Inc. sank nearly a quarter of its $3 billion trade finance portfolio into receivables tied to auto parts supplier First Brands Group Inc., the bank disclosed on Wednesday.
** BlackRock Inc. has requested to pull some money it invested in a Jefferies Financial Group fund with large exposure to the trade debt of First Brands, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Ryanair Holdings Plc said it received 10 aircraft from Boeing Co. in the past 10 days, a sign of progress as the US planemaker works to ramp up production in its factories.
* The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will reschedule a late October meeting of an influential vaccine panel that’s been weighing changes to long-standing advice around childhood shots.
* Canada’s Cenovus Energy Inc. increased its takeover bid for rival MEG Energy Corp. one day before investors were due to vote on it, signaling the companies’ original deal didn’t have enough shareholder support.
* Shell Plc is preparing to resume preliminary work on a Venezuelan offshore gas field to supply neighboring Trinidad and Tobago, as its confidence grows that the Trump administration will issue a new license exempting the project from sanctions, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Airbus SE delivered 73 aircraft in September as it works to meet ambitious full-year guidance amid supply chain struggles.
* BMW AG lowered its financial guidance on weak sales in China and tariff costs, underscoring the difficulties Germany’s export-reliant auto industry is facing.
* Security services group Verisure Plc’s shares rallied in its first day of trading, after the initial public offering raised about €3.2 billion ($3.72 billion) in the largest European debut in three years.
* Teck Resources Ltd. once again cut output guidance for its flagship copper mine in Chile, little more than a month after agreeing one of the biggest ever mining deals with Anglo American Plc.
* SoftBank Group Corp. agreed to acquire ABB Ltd.’s industrial robots’ unit at an enterprise value of almost $5.4 billion, reflecting billionaire Masayoshi Son’s growing bets on emerging technology in artificial intelligence and robotics.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Some AI-related stocks may still justify lofty valuations as risks are concentrated in smaller companies with weak fundamentals.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1630
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3402
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 152.71 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $123,375.03
* Ether was little changed at $4,512.39
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.13%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.68%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.71%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.58%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.72%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $62.39 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.5% to $4,045.49 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
“Different’ and ‘new’ is relatively easy. Doing something that’s genuinely better is very hard.”– Sir Jonathan Paul Ive “Jony”

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office attending the Bloomberg Screentime 2025 Conference. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On Oct. 7, 1806 Carbon paper patented in London by inventor Ralph Wedgwood
On Oct. 7, 1907 Henri Farman of France flies 30 meters in a Voisin biplane
On Oct. 7, 1909 British Security Service, commonly known as MI5 (Military Intelligence, Section 5), is formed as part of the Secret Service Bureau
On Oct. 7, 1919 KLM (Koninklijke Luchtvaart Maatschappij), Royal Dutch Airlines, is founded in Amsterdam, making it one of the world’s oldest airlines
On Oct. 7, 1928 Paavo Nurmi runs a world record 10 miles (50:15.0)
On Oct. 7, 2008 The Federal Reserve annouced a radical plan to buy massive amounts of short-term debt, known as commercial paper, to get credit markets moving again. Go to article

Interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS may come from the mysterious frontier of the early Milky Way, new study hints
The interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS does not come from our corner of the Milky Way, and may be a time capsule of the early galaxy, new research into its trajectory hints.

Leopards ate our ancient human ancestors’ faces, AI analysis reveals
A study provides insight into the demise of two prehistoric individuals of the now-extinct human species Homo habilis.

Deadly mamba snakebites stop muscles from working — but sometimes, antivenom can send them into overdrive
Some victims of venomous mamba snakebites see their symptoms worsen after getting antivenom, displaying a different type of paralysis. A new study explores why.

Unique gene variants in the Turkana people of Kenya may help them survive harsh desert heat
Scientists discovered genetic variants in the Turkana that help conserve water in deserts, but these variants may now raise disease risks in urban settings, early data suggest.

Nobel Prize in physics goes to three scientists who discovered bizarre quantum effect on large scales
The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics has been awarded to John Clarke, Michel H. Devoret and John M. Martinis “for the discovery of macroscopic quantum mechanical tunnelling and energy quantisation in an electric circuit.”

Far Side of the Moon Revealed
In 1959 Far side of the Moon is seen for the first time courtesy of the USSR’s Luna 3 space probe

A monstrous tornado
The rarest and most extreme form of tornado struck eastern North Dakota in June, and experts have now determined how strong it really was.

New details of Ernest Shackleton’s sunken Endurance ship
A broken rudder wasn’t what doomed the Endurance, new analysis suggests.

Niels Bohr, mathematician, b. 1885 🧪
Desmond Tutu, b. 1931 ✝️
Vladimir Putin, b. 1952 🇷🇺
Yo-Yo Ma, b. 1955 🎻

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

New Mexico, US
‘Storm clouds and a rainbow in Santa Fe. There was a brilliant light show before a good and much-needed soaking.’
Photograph: Mary Anne Wisnewski

Dresden, Germany
‘This is the International Congress Center at dusk. I was on my way to take a photo of the cityscape from the Marienbrücke when I happened on this beautiful architecture.’
Photograph: Harvey Wasserman

Seville, Spain
Metropol Parasol, the world’s largest wooden structure.
Photograph: Francisco Garcia
Market Closes for October 7^th , 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46602.98	-91.99
		-0.20%
S&P 500	6714.59	-25.69
		-0.38%
NASDAQ	22788.36	-153.31
		-0.67%
TSX	30351.72	-180.16
		-0.59%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	47950.88	+6.12
		+0.01%
HANG SENG	26957.77	-183.15
		-0.67%
SENSEX	81926.75	+136.63
		+0.17%
FTSE 100*	9483.58	+4.44
		+0.05%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.183	3.213
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.703	3.715
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1230	4.1540
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7231	4.7526

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7169	0.7168
US $	1.3948	1.3950

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6268	0.6147
US $	1.1660	0.8576

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3949.45	3885.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.73	61.69

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1896, the Dow Jones Industrial Average began continuous daily publication. Its 12 members were the great industrial giants of the time: American Cotton Oil, American Sugar, American Tobacco, Chicago Gas, American Spirits Manufacturing, General Electric, Laclede Gas, National Lead, U.S. Cordage, Tennessee Coal & Iron, U.S. Leather, and U.S. Rubber.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.6% at 30,351.72 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.9% on Aug.
1 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 142 of 214 shares fell, while 67 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.9%.
Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.8%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.1% below its 52-week high on Oct. 6, 2025 and 36.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and rose 4.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 on a trailing basis and 18.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.87t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.79% compared with 6.37% in the previous session and the average of 7.58% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -73.3754| -1.4| 10/41
Information Technology | -45.5377| -1.4| 2/7
Financials | -44.8806| -0.5| 6/16
Consumer Discretionary | -15.7069| -1.6| 1/8
Industrials | -13.7425| -0.4| 8/21
Real Estate | -4.0604| -0.8| 1/16
Health Care | 0.1470| 0.2| 2/2
Consumer Staples | 1.7734| 0.2| 3/8
Communication Services | 3.2239| 0.5| 2/3
Utilities | 4.2717| 0.4| 9/5
Energy | 7.7284| 0.2| 23/15
Shopify | -37.6600| -1.9| -39.9| 47.1
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -19.7300| -2.4| -46.8| 106.4
RBC | -13.9400| -0.7| 15.3| 17.5
WSP Global | 3.5540| 1.4| -0.9| 9.9
Cameco | 5.1980| 1.4| -7.0| 63.3
Canadian Natural | Resources | 6.4180| 1.0| -30.3| 3.0
(MT Newswires)
(Adds commentary from representative of Canadian team after White House meetings from paragraph 7 to 13.)
After six consecutive days of record closes, the Toronto Stock Exchange fell Tuesday on some profit taking and on investor nerves around Canada’s chances of bringing a trade war with the United States to an end, and at what cost if it does.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 180.16 points, or 0.6%, to 30,351.72 with sectors mixed, and none of them falling or rising by as much as 1%.
On the trade front, Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday told U.S. President Donald Trump that Canada is the U.S.’s largest foreign investor, investing half of a $1 trillion over the last five years, and “probably $1 trillion in the next five years, if we get the agreement that we expect to get”, according to a transcript read on Canada’s CBC TV related to commentary from the Canadian Prime Minister during his trade talks at the White House.
Carney’s comments created a stir as to what exactly was meant.
Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the opposition Conservatives, latched on to this confusion during Question Time in parliament back in Ottawa.
According to one reporter on CBC TV, Carney appeared to be talking about private sector rather than government investment in the U.S., but Poilievre saw it as meaning companies and private sector entities will actually move to the United States.
All of this comes as Canada’s deficit in goods trade ballooned to $6.3 billion in August, from a revised $3.8 billion in the prior month and not far from the widest point recorded in April.
Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc briefed the media at 4:00 p.m. ET, and market watchers were looking for him to clear up matters as to what exactly Carney and Trump spoke about and what, if any, agreements have been struck during their meeting.
According to LeBlanc, the Canadian team had a “successful, positive, substantive conversation” with their U.S. counterparts on trade and international issues.
He said the conversation was “more detailed” than at previous meetings, with President Trump “very engaged”.
LeBlanc added talks will continue to “quickly land deals” that will bring “greater certainty” to areas such as steel, aluminum and energy.
MT Newswires notes the auto sector was not included among the areas cited.
Also, LeBlanc confirmed PM Carney did talk about substantial investments by private corporations and institutional investors, such as pension funds that have already massively invested in the U.S. economy to the tune of more than $500 billion.
“We believe over the next five years that could double,” he said.
LeBlanc said Carney spoke, for example, about how Canada can contribute more to the energy security of the U.S. through private corporations and institutions.
When asked were Canada and the U.S. headed towards a quota system in their trade dealings, LeBlanc said one needed to be careful drawing a straight line between the idea of having ‘formula’ for trade dealings, as President Trump alluded to today, and having ‘quotas’.
LeBlanc when asked has Canada joined the ‘Golden Dome’ defence system, said Canada wants to be a “constructive partner” as the Americans “elaborate” on the details, with talks ongoing.
Of commodities today, gold had continued its record run higher late afternoon on Tuesday as the precious metal rose above US$4,000 mark for the first time on strong demand.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $27.30 to US$4,003.60 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate oil closed with a small gain, the third-straight day of gains as traders assess the risks of supply disruptions amid an over-supplied market.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed up $0.04 to settle at $61.73 per barrel, while December Brent crude was last seen down $0.06 to $65.41.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders sent stocks lower after a series of all-time highs spurred calls for a breather amid signs of buyer exhaustion. Bonds rose as a $58 billion Treasury sale drew solid demand.
The ebullience driven by artificial intelligence gave way to concerns about the rally being excessive after a $16 trillion surge in the S&P 500 from its April lows.
Tech giants dragged down the index amid a report that Oracle Corp.’s cloud margins are lower than many estimate.
Tesla Inc. sank over 4% after introducing new versions of its top-selling models priced at under $40,000.
Investor optimism has grown heated in recent months, with many investors seeming too busy chasing the upside to worry about risks like a US government shutdown and stretched valuations.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk said last week bullish sentiment among clients was the highest since December.
A sentiment tracker compiled by Barclays Plc has been near a level that indicates exuberance.
A similar Bloomberg Intelligence measure went back to “manic” zone.
“A period of consolidation would not come as a surprise after such a strong recent run, but we believe the equity rally is underpinned by solid fundamentals that should continue to support the market,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The S&P 500 closed around 6,715.
Oracle slid 2.5%.
Dell Technologies Inc. climbed 3.5% after hiking estimates amid strong AI demand.
US 10-year yields dropped three basis points to 4.13%.
The dollar rose.
Traders also parsed remarks from Federal Reserve officials, with Governor Stephen Miran saying his expectations for a limited tariff impact on inflation mean the Fed can keep easing policy.
Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari warned that any drastic rate cuts would risk stoking prices.
“Profit-taking risks have rapidly risen across markets, and are particularly elevated for Nasdaq, potentially hampering further upside,” said Citigroup’s Chris Montagu.
Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler says he remains optimistic, particularly with macro tailwinds lifting the stock market.
However, he believes there are subtle signs of diverging momentum that warrant vigilance, especially with over-extended stocks that have risen substantially in recent weeks.
“A brief consolidation or shallow pullback would be welcomed to set up better risk-reward opportunities,” he noted.
At Fundstrat Global Advisors, Mark Newton says “overbought conditions” are notoriously a poor reason to avoid owning US equities, as many investors realize that can likely persist and don’t have to specifically represent a reason for concern.
Yet “it’s important to pay attention and not become overly complacent.”
“Of course valuations are moving higher.
They usually do, especially after swift selloffs like the one we saw in April,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“Now, we need to see earnings and economic data follow through.”
Cox says price-to-earnings ratios pushing towards extremes should encourage investors to rebalance.
“There’s still a lot of hidden value – or selloff protection – out there that could keep you cushioned against AI disappointment,” she noted.
Some Wall Street pros note that having multiple large technology stocks surge by double-digits in quick succession could be a sign that valuations have become disconnected from underlying fundamentals.
The moves come amid growing chatter about a bubble forming around AI as key players pledge billions of dollars in deals with a cohort of companies making infrastructure for the technology.
As more money is spent, there’s mounting fear the trend will end in a crash the way it did 25 years ago following the dot-com euphoria.
Warnings that we’re seeing a repeat of the dot-com bubble are heard regularly, noted Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
The big difference is that this time, the players are huge companies with huge balance sheets and existing cash flow, he said.
“If profitability takes longer than expected a few of the hardware suppliers will suffer operating losses,” Navellier added.
“Nevertheless, with the market so heavily weighted to companies that are all-in on the AI bet, any serious setbacks on the prospects of AI profitability will have a serious impact on market indexes in the short term.”
With that said, Navellier noted investors shouldn’t worry about a stock-market bubble, “since as long as the analyst community is raising earnings estimates and the Fed is cutting key interest rates, we can invest confidently in A-rated stocks.”
Meantime, Jamie Dimon said JPMorgan Chase & Co. spends $2 billion a year on developing AI technology, and saves about the same amount annually from the investment.
“We know that it’s got to billions of cost savings and I think it’s the tip of the iceberg,” the bank’s chief executive officer, who has consistently touted the opportunities offered by AI, told Bloomberg TV.
“There has been plenty of chatter regarding the lofty valuations in the equity market and need for a rationalization lower.
At issue isn’t whether stocks have gotten a bit ahead of themselves, rather how the financial system would respond to a sharp correction,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
The BMO strategists noted that Tuesday’s price action was by no means a massive downtrade, instead it was a pullback in the tech sector following the concerns regarding narrow profit margins on AI-related cloud server rentals.
“We’re by no means technology experts and will leave the process of evaluating the cloud server worries to those more qualified.
Our only takeaway was that the Treasury market is comfortable in the prevailing range and wobbles in equities provided a handy excuse to rally,” they concluded.

Corporate Highlights:
* Dell Technologies Inc. roughly doubled its growth estimates for sales and profit for the next two years, and said demand for artificial intelligence products will extend those higher projections at least through the 2030 fiscal year.
* International Business Machines Corp. announced a plan to integrate Anthropic’s artificial-intelligence technologies into its software solutions.
* Salesforce Inc. told customers that it won’t pay a ransom demand from a hacker who claimed to have stolen a large amount of client data and threatened to publish it, according to an email seen by Bloomberg News.
* Gambling stocks led by DraftKings Inc. and Flutter Entertainment Plc fell after the owner of the New York Stock Exchange announced plans to invest as much as $2 billion in Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform.
* Ford Motor Co. faces months of disruptions to its business after a major fire at an aluminum plant in New York, the Wall Street Journal reported.
* Johnson & Johnson was told by a California jury to pay $966 million to the family of a deceased woman who blamed her cancer on life-long use of the company’s baby powder in the largest verdict for a single user in the 15-year litigation.
* CoreWeave Inc. Chief Executive Officer Michael Intrator pushed back on the idea of changing a $9 billion bid for Core Scientific Inc. after one of the acquisition target’s biggest investors said it was a lowball offer.
* Ethiopian Airlines has more than 100 planes on order with Boeing Co., but delivery delays are hampering expansion at Africa’s biggest carrier.
* Bank of New York Mellon Corp. is exploring tokenized deposits to enable clients to make payments using blockchain, as major banks across the world step up use of the technology underpinning digital assets to transfer funds.
* Rising investor appetite for digital infrastructure, energy and transportation assets boosted fundraising for Manulife Investment Management, which closed its largest-ever infrastructure fund with $5.5 billion.
* Mercedes-Benz Group AG’s China sales tumbled 27% in the third quarter to their lowest level in almost a decade as luxury demand in the country remains weak and local manufacturers dominate on electric vehicles.
* One of Banco Sabadell SA’s biggest investors said it will reject BBVA SA’s bid for its local rival, heightening uncertainty over the €17 billion deal just three days before it ends.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The S&P 500 has declined to a key support level of 6,700.
The move so far still reflects positioning dynamics more than any change in the macro narrative, but the potential for a greater pullback is growing.”
—Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.1%
* Oracle fell 2.5%
* Tesla fell 4.4%
* Dell Technologies rose 3.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1651
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3420
* The Japanese yen fell 1.1% to 151.99 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $122,061.45
* Ether fell 4% to $4,505.01
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.13%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.72%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.57%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.72%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $62.03 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,981.41 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shab
“A diamond is a chunk of coal that did well under pressure.” — Dr Henry Alfred Kissinger

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.   Full moon tonight – Harvest Moon! 🌕

On Oct. 6, 1981, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat was shot to death by Islamic militants while reviewing a military parade.  Go to article.
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The famous Harvest Moon — the first of three supermoons of 2025 — will be the first full moon of autumn when it rises on Oct. 6-7. Read More.

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Anthropologists make ‘ant yogurt’ from centuries-old recipe, serve it as an ‘ant-wich’ at Michelin-star restaurant

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Massive system of rotating ocean currents in the North Atlantic is behaving strangely — and it may be reaching a tipping point

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Bad Bunny on ‘SNL’
The singer addressed the backlash to his upcoming Super Bowl halftime gig.
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Internet personality Aurélien Fontenoy cycled up the Eiffel Tower in 12 minutes and 30 seconds. That’s wheely impressive.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Haikou, China
A rainbow arcs over buildings after Typhoon Matmo in Hainan province
Photograph: Jiang Jurong/VCG/Getty Images

Maranello, Italy
A drone view shows the Ferrari e-Vortex test circuit, a 1.9km track covering 37,000 sq metres, built in less than four months to enhance functional testing of new sports cars. It features banked curves, a 600-metre straight section and specialised surfaces for performance analysis
Photograph: Ferrari Handout/Reuters

​​​​​​​Colombo, Sri Lanka
A man collects pink water lilies to sell for religious offerings
Photograph: Krishan Kariyawasam/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Market Closes for October 6^th , 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46694.97	-63.31
		-0.14%
S&P 500	6740.28	+24.49
		+0.36%
NASDAQ	22941.67	+161.16
		+0.71%
TSX	30531.88	+60.20
		+0.20%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	48400.46	+455.70
		+0.95%
HANG SENG	26957.77	-183.15
		-0.67%
SENSEX	81790.12	+582.95
		+0.72%
FTSE 100*	9479.14	-12.11
		-0.13%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.213	3.187
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.715	3.673
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1540	4.1192
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7526	4.7114

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7168	0.7165
US $	1.3950	1.3956

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6331	0.6123
US $	1.1708	0.8541

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3885.70	3878.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.69	60.88

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1979, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker made his first major announcement: The Fed raised rates a full percentage point, to 12%, and said it would take tough measures to control the money supply. Volcker’s announcement, made on a Saturday night, became known as “the Saturday Night Massacre” for its murderous effect on bond prices—but it also broke the back of inflation.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the seventh day, climbing 0.2%, or 60.2 to 30,531.88 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%.
Orla Mining Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 12.4%.
Today, 113 of 214 shares rose, while 99 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 37.4% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.9% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 on a trailing basis and 19.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.86t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.37% compared with 6.86% in the previous session and the average of 7.61% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 52.6207| 1.0| 38/13
Information Technology | 25.3134| 0.8| 7/2
Energy | 18.5657| 0.4| 29/9
Utilities | 4.4483| 0.4| 7/6
Financials | 3.2239| 0.0| 12/12
Health Care | -0.8495| -1.0| 1/3
Communication Services | -3.6107| -0.6| 1/4
Industrials | -4.8525| -0.1| 13/16
Real Estate | -5.9125| -1.2| 1/18
Consumer Discretionary | -8.7539| -0.9| 4/5
Consumer Staples | -20.0129| -2.0| 0/11
Shopify | 39.4500| 2.1| -29.4| 50.0
Canadian Natural | Resources | 12.8300| 2.0| -22.9| 2.0
Cenovus | 5.8010| 2.8| -30.0| 11.7
Brookfield Corp | -9.1370| -1.0| -53.2| 14.9
Dollarama | -9.6670| -2.7| 60.1| 27.3
Constellation | Software | -18.3500| -3.3| -39.9| -12.3
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted yet another record finish Monday, the sixth-straight, even as Rosenberg Research said Canada’s equity market looks “stretched and relatively overbought”, but did also add its commodity model “remains solidly in the upper half of the ‘neutral’ range.”
The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 60 points, or 0.2%, to 30,531.88, buoyed by elevated commodity prices.
Most sectors were higher, led by Energy and the Battery Metals Index, both up about 1.3%.
Telecoms, Health Care and Industrials were lower, but none of them by more than 0.5%.
Market watchers now await a meeting of Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday.
The pair are expected to talk trade and security amid an ongoing tariff dispute.
BMO Economics in an overnight note said this year’s “trade turmoil” created a “tense and potentially combustible environment” heading into the upcoming review of the existing United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, which must be held by July 2026.
BMO estimates the potential economic impact of several stylized USMCA scenarios: in its “Muddle Through” scenario, tariffs remain close to current levels, yielding a slowdown in Canada and limited impact in the United States; in its “No Special Treatment” scenario, both sides implement material but moderate new tariffs, creating larger economic dislocations; and in its “Continental Divide” scenario, both sides erect large tariff walls, resulting in a recession in Canada and a material slowdown for the United States.
Meanwhile, Rosenberg Research in its latest ‘Strategizer’, a monthly guidebook for active investors, said its asset allocation tool retained an underweight equity/overweight bonds view heading into October, though it added the market for corporate credit looks “very stretched and far more expensive” than the stock market.
According to the note, stock-market focus should remain on the overseas indices, while the ‘Strategizer’ model is taking -5 points out of both bonds, to 40% from 45%, and cash, to 5% from 10%, with the proceeds put into equities, which was raised to 55% from 45%.
Rosenberg Research said relative scores favor Europe and Asia over the United States and Canada, adding Strategizer’s preference for ex-U.S. markets “fits the current macro policy environment”.
It noted Europe’s score rose to 41.2 in September, up from 36.1 earlier, and added: “Peak values above 60.0 were recorded in January and April, which turned out to be well-timed signals to increase exposure on the back of the fiscal spending announcement hype.
Since then, however, investors are in “wait and see” mode, reflected by a European model score that remains rangebound in “neutral” territory.
Yet, Europe is still more compelling than the U.S. and Canadian indices, which look stretched and relatively overbought when sentiment, positioning, and technical indicators are considered.”
On Canada’s score, the research said a losing streak was extended for a fifth consecutive month, dropping deeper into underweight territory at 17.3 after an already low reading of 21.9 last month.
It noted precious metals have provided strong support for Canadian stocks, which have climbed steadily in recent months.
Still, it added, Strategizer highlights extreme values of technical and sentiment indicators pointing to overbought conditions compared to historical norms (contrarian negative).
Among Canadian sectors, Materials (gold miners), Financials, and Real Estate remain in the top rankings from the month prior, with the only change being a jump up in Energy to #3 from #6.
Health Care, which ranked second last month, has now dropped to sixth.
Strategizer’s commodity model “remains solidly in the upper half of the ‘neutral’ range”, despite edging down slightly in September to 56.0 from 57.2 in August.
The research said: “As we have been highlighting of late, valuations remain historically cheap and positioning is depressed (contrarian positives), offsetting demand concerns from the state of the global economy (though a supply squeeze in various segments of the metals space is acting as a powerful antidote).
Crude oil ranks 5th, with supply concerns acting as a restraining force.”
The gold model, the research said, eroded for the third month in a row and is flashing a near-term ‘take profits’ signal, which it just did in the Rosie Macro Fund.
It added: “We remain long-term bullish on the yellow metal, but both sentiment and positioning scores remain at extreme levels (87th and 78^th percentile readings, respectively), indicating that we are not alone in our bullish stance on the shiny yellow metal.
The technical picture has also become extremely overbought (the corresponding model subindex jumped to a 94^th percentile from 57th in August).”
Of commodities today, gold continued its record run up, approaching the US$4,000 mark even as the dollar and yields rose.
Gold for December delivery was up $75.10 to US$3,984.00 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose for a second day as OPEC+ on the weekend decided on a monthly production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, less than reports last week expected but still adding fresh supply to an already flush market.
WTI oil for November delivery closed up $0.81 to settle at $61.69 per barrel, while December Brent oil was last seen up $0.83 to $65.36.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in chipmakers sent stocks to all- time highs as Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s deal with OpenAI added fuel to the artificial-intelligence frenzy that has powered Wall Street. Bonds fell.
The dollar rose.
With the bull market on track for its three-year anniversary, momentum shows few signs of abating.
The S&P 500 climbed for a seventh straight session – the longest advance since May.
AMD soared 24%.
While giant Nvidia Corp. slid, a key gauge of semiconductors jumped about 3%.
Tesla Inc. led gains in mega caps as a series of social-media posts teased the unveiling of a product.
Monday’s AMD deal is the latest big-budget data center agreement this year.
It follows last month’s announcement that Nvidia was planning to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI amid demand for tools like ChatGPT and the computing power needed to make them run.
“Semiconductors are ‘on fire’,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
“The AI narrative continues to gain momentum.”
With “animal spirits” surrounding the AI phenomenon getting yet another boost, Matt Maley at Miller Tabak notes it’s no surprise that issues like the US government shutdown are being mostly ignored by traders.
The S&P 500 closed around 6,740.
Comerica Inc. soared as Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy the bank for about $10.9 billion in stock.
AppLovin Corp. sank as it was said to be probed over its data-collection practices.
Long-term Treasuries underperformed, joining a similar trend through much of Europe and Asia amid fiscal concerns.
Gold neared $4,000-an-ounce.
Bitcoin also hit a record.
Oil gained as OPEC+ raised production by a modest amount.
For almost as long as the AI boom has been in full swing, there have been warnings of a speculative bubble that could rival the dot-com craze of the late 1990s that ended in a spectacular crash and a wave of bankruptcies.
There was some fear that an AI bubble had already popped in late January, when China’s DeepSeek upended the market with the release of a competitive AI model.
But Silicon Valley remained largely undeterred.
In the months that followed, tech companies redoubled their AI spending plans, and investors resumed cheering on these bets.
“When the tech bubble in the stock market inflated during 1999, we don’t recall as much chatter about a bubble as we are hearing today.
From a contrarian perspective, it is comforting that there is a bubble in bubble fears,” said veteran Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni.
The founder of Yardeni Research noted that the Google search index for “AI bubble” rose to 100 on Oct. 2 from zero in mid-September.
“We are counting on another better-than-expected earnings reporting season for Q3 over the next few weeks to support the stock market’s rally to record highs,” Yardeni said.
“In addition, we expect that the AI and cloud companies won’t disappoint either.”
“Today’s lofty tech sector valuations differ in nature with the ‘irrational exuberance’ of the tech bubble of the 1990s and 2000s: capital expenditures have been funded out of free cash flows underpinned by high profitability,” said Naomi Fink at Amova Asset Management.
To Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise, it’s possible that some level of investment in the AI buildout today may not yield the degree of return investors hope for, and valuations among some of the leaders would likely need to be adjusted downward.
“However, given the size and scale of companies and industries that have yet to tap into AI in a meaningful way, we are less concerned that we are on the cusp of a dot-com bubble just yet,” he said.
US companies are set to enjoy a better-than-expected earnings season as a robust economy and a solid outlook for AI have left estimates looking too low, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin.
They also expect the so-called Magnificent Seven group of technology heavyweights to beat expectations.
At Ritholtz Wealth Management, Callie Cox says markets feel “untouchable,” which is why there are so many people talking about valuations.
“Higher valuations aren’t unusual, but earnings need to grab the baton for the rally to continue,” she said.
“Ideally, we want to see profits support prices.”
“We’re in a self-fulfilling rally — earnings are strong and getting stronger, investors are shrugging off a lack of data, and even a government shutdown can’t shake their confidence,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“And with half of the past decade’s returns typically coming in Q4, the main story right now is momentum.”
Bespoke Investment Group strategists noted that US investors will observe two notable milestones in coming days — Wednesday marks six months since the S&P 500’s hit this year’s lows, and Sunday is set to be the three-year anniversary of the current bull market.
The gauge’s rolling six-month change crossed above 30% for the first time since Oct. 2, 2020, Bespoke said in a note that analyzed the 12 days since 1953 when that happened for the first time in at least a year.
“In terms of forward market performance following the 12 days, the S&P has definitely shown some weakness in the very near term, but going out three months to one year, returns are slightly better than normal,” the strategists said.
A multi-month winning streak in US stocks is poised to continue based on an equity indicator from Barclays Plc that correctly predicted September’s rally in the face of concern over seasonal weakness.
The Barclays Equity Timing Indicator, which analyzes 19 inputs like market internals, positioning and economic data to find inflection points in the market, implies an 82% chance that the S&P 500 will advance in the next two months, with an average gain of 4% during that time, based on data going back to 2015.
“Another round of above-consensus results and positive takeaways around a resilient consumer could give investors a confidence boost heading into year-end amidst government uncertainty and a shaky labor market,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte wrote that aggregate equity positioning remains overweight but not stretched, although there are growing pockets of momentum chasing in large caps.
Solid earnings growth and extreme valuations are calling for further broadening of the global equity rally, Citigroup strategists led by Beata Manthey said.
“We remain optimistic heading into the fourth quarter, particularly with macro tailwinds that are expected to lift the stock market.
However, there are subtle signs of diverging momentum as we enter October that warrant vigilance, particularly with over-extended stocks that have risen substantially in recent weeks,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
A brief consolidation or shallow pullback would be welcomed to set up better risk-reward opportunities, he said.
“As of now, the stock market is shrugging off the government shutdown and is more focused on earnings optimism and the prospect of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts,” said Robert Edwards at Edwards Asset Management.

Corporate Highlights:
* President Donald Trump said 25% duties on medium- and heavy- duty trucks would begin Nov. 1, the latest expansion of his tariff regime aimed at protecting domestic industries.
* OpenAI is making it easier for ChatGPT users to connect with third-party apps within the chatbot to carry out tasks, the company’s latest bid to turn its flagship product into a key gateway for digital services.
* Micron Technology Inc. climbed as Morgan Stanley upgraded the shares to overweight, saying the chipmaker is headed for multiple quarters of double-digit price increases.
* Apple Inc. faces an investigation in France over the use of voice recordings made with its assistant Siri.
* The US Supreme Court declined a chance to open social media companies to lawsuits over content recommended by their algorithms, turning away an appeal that accused Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook of radicalizing a man who killed nine South Carolina churchgoers.
* Boeing Co. is guiding suppliers that 737 Max output could reach a 42-jet monthly tempo as soon as this month, according to people familiar with its plans, highlighting growing optimism at the plane maker as it works to win approval for the move from US
regulators.
* Verizon Communications Inc., conceding it has fallen behind rivals in wireless and broadband service, replaced its chief executive officer of seven years, appointing a new leader with experience in telecom and financial technology.
* The US Supreme Court turned away an appeal by ticketing giant Live Nation Entertainment Inc. in a consumer antitrust suit, dealing a blow to the company’s effort to manage its antitrust woes by channeling cases into arbitration.
* Paramount Skydance Corp. acquired the online news site the Free Press and named founder Bari Weiss editor-in-chief of CBS News, a move likely to stir controversy inside and outside of the news organization.
* Orsted A/S raised 60 billion Danish kroner ($9.4 billion) through a rights offering that’s critical for the company to tackle the downturn facing the wind power industry.
* Nvidia Corp.’s major server production partner Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. reported 11% growth in quarterly sales, signaling healthy demand for the chips and servers needed to develop artificial intelligence.
“AI-related equity baskets are up by double digits this year, with the rally expanding beyond the Magnificent Seven into other parts of tech like memory chips and storage shares.
That raises the stakes for these companies to deliver on results to keep justifying these gains and sparks concern about how long the momentum can last.”
— Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 2.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1711
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3482
* The Japanese yen fell 1.9% to 150.33 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.2% to $125,458.73
* Ether rose 5% to $4,724.56
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.16%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.74%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.60%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.76%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $61.76 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.9% to $3,960.20 an ounce.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
What the superior man seeks is in himself.  What the inferior man seeks is in others. -Confucius, 551-478 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

October 3, 1990: Germany is officially reunified, ending four decades of Cold War division between the Soviet-controlled East and the Western-controlled West.
West Germany and East Germany ended 45 years of postwar division, declaring the creation of a new unified country. Go to article

October 3, 1941: The Maltese Falcon premieres in New York City.

Stevie Ray Vaughan, musician, b. 1954.
Ashlee Simpson, singer, b. 1984

Chinese tech company develops creepy ultra-lifelike robot face — watch it blink, twitch and nod

A Chinese robotics company has unveiled what it describes as a realistic robot face, with plans to make humanoid robots more approachable and relatable. Read More.

Scientists find best evidence yet that icy moon Enceladus is habitable

An ocean flowing beneath the surface of Saturn’s moon Enceladus is spewing ice that holds the building blocks of life. Read More.

Chimps eat fruit full of alcohol, but no, they don’t get drunk

Chimps’ ability to metabolize fermented fruit could explain our own predilection for alcohol. Read More.

The Panama Canal needs a staggering amount of water to operate. Climate change could threaten that, study warns

The vital commercial artery depends on a supply of fresh water to move ships between the two oceans. Drought conditions that were once rare could become common by the end of the century, greatly impacting the canal’s operation. Read More.

Taylor Swift releases new album
Cue the confetti — Taylor Swift’s 12th album, “The Life of a Showgirl,” has officially arrived.

First female Archbishop of Canterbury is appointed
Sarah Mullally was appointed today as the new Archbishop of Canterbury, becoming the spiritual leader of 85 million Anglicans worldwide and the first woman to hold the role.

Kilauea volcano shoots lava as high as the Empire State Building
Hawaii’s Kilauea recently shot lava 1,300 feet into the air! See the video here.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Loriol-Sur-Drome, France
Riders in action during the junior women’s road race at the UEC road European cycling championships
Photograph: Shutterstock

New Delhi, India
Viktoras Pentaras, of Cyprus, in action during the men’s long jump T37 final during the World Para Athletics Championships at the Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium
Photograph: Bhawika Chhabra/Reuters

​​​​​​​Canterbury, UK
Britain’s new archbishop of Canterbury-designate, Sarah Mullally, poses for a photograph in the Corona vhapel at Canterbury Cathedral, after her appointment was announcement
Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 3^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46758.28	+238.56
		+0.51%
S&P 500	6715.79	+0.44
		+0.01%
NASDAQ	22780.51	-63.54
		-0.28%
TSX	30471.68	+311.09
		+1.03%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45769.50	+832.77
		+1.85%
HANG SENG	27140.92	-146.20
		-0.54%
SENSEX	81207.17	+223.86
		+0.28%
FTSE 100*	9491.25	+63.52
		+0.67%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.187	3.176
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.673	3.657
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1192	4.0827
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7114	4.6881

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7165	0.7162
US $	1.3956	1.3962

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6369	0.6103
US $	1.1739	0.8518

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3878.10	3872.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	60.88	60.48

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1913, President Woodrow Wilson enshrined into law a federal income tax, less than 20 years after it was declared unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court. He signed the act after 9 p.m. to prevent anyone from hiding assets during that day’s business hours. The tax kicked in at 1% of all earned income over $2,500 for single taxpayers and $3,333.35 for married couples.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the sixth day, climbing 1%, or 311.09 to 30,471.68 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.1% on Sept. 19.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 159 of 214 shares rose, while 55 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 6.5%.

Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 17 times. The next day, it declined nine times for an average 1.3% and advanced eight times for an average 0.7%
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* So far this week, the index rose 2.4%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Aug. 8
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 37.1% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6 on a trailing basis and 19 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.81t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.86% compared with 6.82% in the previous session and the average of 7.96% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 118.4336| 3.9| 7/2
Financials | 59.7175| 0.6| 21/3
Energy | 53.1513| 1.1| 35/4
Industrials | 37.1472| 1.1| 21/8
Materials | 19.3271| 0.4| 29/22
Utilities | 7.8527| 0.7| 10/4
Consumer Discretionary | 7.5202| 0.8| 9/0
Real Estate | 4.8474| 1.0| 18/1
Consumer Staples | 2.8918| 0.3| 6/5
Communication Services | 0.7585| 0.1| 2/3
Health Care | -0.5569| -0.7| 1/3
Shopify | 116.3000| 6.5| 13.7| 47.0
TD Bank | 25.3900| 1.9| 392.2| 48.0
Constellation | Software | 17.7600| 3.3| 14.3| -9.3
Nutrien | -2.0400| -0.7| 5.8| 28.7
Bank of Montreal | -9.2020| -1.0| 105.0| 29.0
Celestica | -19.4800| -6.9| 15.4| 145.8
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Friday completed an entire week of daily record closes as BMO’s Douglas Porter noted the index is on an “even bigger roll” than its major U.S. counterparts, “even without the gold rush”.
Today, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index was buoyed by elevated commodity prices in surging 311.09 points, or 1%, to 30,471.68, well up from a then record close of just under the 30,000 mark struck last Monday.
Most sectors were positive, led by Base Metals and Info Tech, both up 1.4%, and info tech, up 2%.
In contrast, Health Care was the only sector that was down near 1%.
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high late afternoon on Friday, recovering from a day-prior drop as traders took profits following Wednesday’s record close, boosted by the dollar weakening amid a U.S. government shutdown and expectations lower interest rates are coming. Gold for December delivery was up US$42.30 to US$3,910.40 per ounce, topping Wednesday’s US$3,897.50 record.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher, rising off a near five-month low ahead of an OPEC+ ministers’ meeting this weekend that could deliver another large output increase.
WTI oil for November delivery closed up $0.40 to settle at $60.88 per barrel, rising off the lowest since May 9, while December Brent oil was up $0.54 to $64.65.
If anything, Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in his regular weekly ‘Talking Points’ note, the TSX is on an “even bigger roll”
than its major U.S. counterparts, with the index now up 23% since the start of the year and a “blistering” 60% over the past 24 months.
He noted that ranks the current run in the top seven performances over a two-year period since 1960.
“True,” Porter added, “the stunning run in gold prices and related equities are juicing those returns, but we calculate that even ex-materials, the index is up a solid 15% so far this year (actually nudging out the S&P 500, even without the gold rush).”
Porter noted this raises the question of ‘how can the TSX be so strong when the underlying Canadian economy is struggling?’ and also noted the knee-jerk response, including often times from BMO, is that the index is a pale reflection of the economy.
But Porter said the TSX has “actually been a decent early indicator in the past for growth”, leading GDP by about a quarter.
He added the relationship is far from airtight, noting the wide divergences around the tech boom and bust in the late 1990s and early 2000s, which has some echoes today.
“But, at the very least, the rollicking ride in stocks suggests that some of the gloom around the economic outlook may be overdone.”
On the economic outlook, Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to head to Washington early next week to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump amid an ongoing trade spate.
Carney will leave for Washington on Monday evening and will meet with Trump on Tuesday, in what the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) is describing as a “working visit and meeting.”
Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, Industry Minister Melanie Joly and Canada-U.S.
Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc will travel with Carney.
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — The rally in tech stocks took a breather Friday, pulling back from this week’s record highs.
AI optimism was countered by President Donald Trump’s warning to Hamas and signs of a weakening economy as a US government shutdown extended into its third day.
The dollar slumped.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%.
Palantir Technologies Inc. was among the biggest decliners, the stock tumbled 7.5% after a report that the defense firm’s battlefield communications system was seriously flawed, a claim the company refuted.
Despite late- day weakness, the S&P 500 eked out a fractional gain, leaving intact its longest winning streak since July.
The broader market gauge has now gone 114 trading sessions without a 5% pullback.
President Trump warned of stark consequences if Hamas doesn’t agree to his plan to end the war in Gaza.
Shortly before markets closed in New York, Hamas agreed to meet some of those terms, including a release of hostages, ahead of a Sunday deadline.
During a White House briefing Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reiterated the administration’s plan to layoff government workers and pull funds from Democratic strongholds, like Portland, Oregon.
While the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls data was delayed due to the shutdown, a number of private-sector indicators out in recent days pointed to sluggish hiring, limited layoffs, modest pay gains and easing demand for workers in September. Separately, data from the Institute for Supply Management on Friday showed the US service sector stalled in September as business activity shrank for the first time since the pandemic and orders barely expanded.
That’s left swaps traders confident the Fed will execute another quarter-point cut in October, despite a data blackout.
The dollar notched its worst week since August.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year, which helps set a range of borrowing costs in the US, fell more than five basis points across the same span.
The latest round of big-ticket artificial intelligence deals and partnerships initially drove stocks to fresh highs on Friday, including news that Global Infrastructure Partners was in advanced talks to acquire Aligned Data Centers.
The deal values the company, a major beneficiary of the AI spending boom, at about $40 billion.
In Asia, Japan’s Hitachi Ltd. teamed up with OpenAI on energy and related infrastructure, while Fujitsu Ltd. expanded its collaboration with Nvidia Corp.
Friday’s burst of new partnerships and potential deals came just a day after a share sale lifted OpenAI’s valuation to $500 billion.
Equities have climbed to successive record highs this year, with AI optimism adding to bullish momentum from prospects of monetary policy easing and resilient earnings.
That string of records has fueled questions over how far the rally can run.
Concerns are growing that valuations look overheated as AI spending has yet to translate into profits.
“While it’s been very difficult to stand in front of this market, storm clouds are darkening, including the late-‘90s-like trends unfolding in tech/AI, a disconnect between Fed rhetoric and market expectations around easing,” writes Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli. Bears see investors as “very complacent about the shutdown, with most assuming it will be wrapped up in under two weeks, but there doesn’t seem to be substantive movement toward a compromise.”
Among signs that the market is getting frothy: a sentiment gauge compiled by Barclays Plc has been sitting near a level that indicates exuberance.
A similar Bloomberg Intelligence measure is back to a “manic” zone that’s preceded lukewarm returns in the past.
While investors are wagering that the billions pouring into the AI sector will eventually translate into profits and extend gains in tech shares, benchmarks are also bumping up against technical levels that often signal a decline is imminent.
Treasury options pricing suggests that the shutdown that began Wednesday will last at least 10 to as many as 29 days, according to interest-rate strategists at Morgan Stanley.
Federal Reserve officials disagree about how much further to reduce borrowing costs after lowering their benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point last month.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated his view that officials should proceed carefully with interest-rate cuts while Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who advocated for larger cuts in September, said he’d amend his inflation view if housing costs unexpectedly jumped.
In commodities, oil fell below $61 a barrel this week ahead of an impending OPEC+ supply decision, though crude prices were climbing Friday after President Trump’s warning on Gaza.
Gold was on track for a seventh weekly gain, fueled by central bank buying amid falling US interest rates and lingering inflation concerns.
And despite all the hype around AI and the surge in chip stocks this year, gold miners have actually been the better bet.
What Bloomberg Strategists say….
“Stocks have pared gains after the latest ISM Services data signaled fading economic activity but seeing persistent inflationary pressures.
That’s not a good combination for risk assets, which have been riding on optimism about Fed rate cuts.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live

Corporate News:
* Rivian Automotive Inc. is reworking a key element of its vehicle doors after employees and customers raised concerns over potential safety issues with the current design, according to people familiar with the matter.
* 3M Co. is considering selling billions of dollars of assets from its industrials operations as it looks to carve out low- growth businesses, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Applied Materials Inc. shares dropped 2.7% after a $600 million hit to its 2026 revenue.
* Boeing Co.’s 777X is slated to fly commercially for the first time in early 2027 instead of next year, people familiar with the matter said, a fresh setback to the US plane maker that sets the stage for potentially billions of dollars in accounting charges.
* Huawei Technologies Co. used advanced components from Asia’s largest technology firms in at least some of its leading Ascend AI processors, a research firm discovered during teardowns.

Some of the main moves in markets: 
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4:02 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1744
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3486
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 147.41 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $122,377.36
* Ether rose 0.3% to $4,508.34
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.12%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.69%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $60.67 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $3,887.11 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Winnie Hsu, Cecile Gutscher, Andre Janse van Vuuren, Levin Stamm and Alex Nicholson.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone. -Blaise Pascal, 1623-1662.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  Yom Kippur.  Millions of people around the world today are observing Yom Kippur, the most sacred holiday in the Jewish faith. It is traditionally marked by fasting, repentance and prayer, as worshippers seek atonement and spiritual renewal.

October 2, 1608: Johannes Lippershey demonstrates the first optical telescope (filed patent application) – prototype for all modern telescopes, transforming how we see the cosmos.
October 2, 1959: “The Twilight Zone” debuted on CBS.  Go to article.

1950: Peanuts comic strip debuts.
1968: Redwood National Park established.
Mahatma Gandhi, Indian leader, b. 1869.
Groucho Marx, comedian, b. 1890.
Graham Greene, writer, b. 1904.
Sting, musician, b. 1951.

Jane Goodall, famed primatologist who discovered chimpanzee tool use, dies at 91
Dame Jane Goodall, the world’s preeminent chimpanzee expert, died of natural causes. Read More.

Yosemite’s glaciers have survived 20,000 years — but we could be the first people to see Sierra Nevada ice-free

New research finds the disappearance of glaciers in the Sierra Nevada will be unprecedented in the human history of North America. Read More.

A ‘Great Wave’ is rippling through our galaxy, pushing thousands of stars out of place

A giant ‘wave’ is rippling through the Milky Way, pushing thousands of stars across the galaxy, and scientists don’t know what triggered it. Read More.

Scientists created human egg cells from skin cells — then used them to make embryos

In a proof-of-concept experiment, scientists demonstrated that you can create and fertilize human eggs in the lab using sperm, genes from skin cells, and the “shells” of existing egg cells. Read More.

‘Midnight’ eVTOL smashes its own record in latest test flight — bringing us closer to operational flying taxis

Archer Aviation’s Midnight eVTOL can now cruise at altitudes of 7,000 feet at speeds of 120 miles per hour. Read More.

Jimmy Kimmel saga
Jimmy Kimmel explains how he learned he was being yanked off the air — and thought he’d never return.

Meta will soon use your conversations with its AI chatbot to sell you stuff
The tech company wants to turn your small talk into big sales.

AI is not yet replacing workers in the US, researchers find
Good news: the bots aren’t taking over (yet). A new Yale University study finds that ChatGPT is not causing a massive upheaval in the US labor market.

BMW tells nearly 200,000 vehicle owners to park outside due to fire risk
The recall includes several BMW models, mostly manufactured between 2019 and 2022.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nevşehir, Turkey
Hot-air balloons fly over the fairy chimneys and valleys of Cappadocia, a Unesco world heritage site
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty

Dunsden, UK
Dew-covered cobwebs on a misty morning in Oxfordshire
Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Shutterstock

Marajó Island, Brazil
A man drives a herd of water buffaloes
Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock
Market Closes for October 2^nd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46519.72	+78.62
		+0.17%
S&P 500	6715.35	+4.15
		+0.06%
NASDAQ	22844.05	+88.89
		+0.39%
TSX	30160.59	+52.92
		+0.18%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44936.73	+385.88
		+0.87%
HANG SENG	27287.12	+431.56
		+1.61%
SENSEX	80983.31	+715.69
		+0.89%
FTSE 100*	9427.73	-18.70
		-0.20%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.176	3.184
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.657	3.663
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0827	4.0981
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6881	4.7095

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7162	0.7174
US $	1.3962	1.3939

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6371	0.6108
US $	1.1726	0.8528

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3872.00	3825.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	60.48	61.78

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1990, the Japanese stock market had what was then its best day on record: The Nikkei 225 index skyrocketed 13.2%. Investors were euphoric over rumors the Japanese government would intervene to stop the ongoing market crash. Unfortunately, the rally turned out to be a “dead-cat bounce,” and the Nikkei soon resumed falling.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fifth day, climbing 0.2%, or 52.92 to 30,160.59 in Toronto.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 113 of 214 shares rose, while 101 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.3%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 7.6%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 35.7% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 5.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.8t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.82% compared with 6.91% in the previous session and the average of 8.08% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 34.8917| 1.2| 7/2
Consumer Discretionary | 14.3266| 1.5| 9/0
Industrials | 13.4879| 0.4| 20/9
Financials | 6.3513| 0.1| 15/9
Utilities | 3.7945| 0.4| 8/6
Consumer Staples | 3.2419| 0.3| 8/3
Health Care | 1.3336| 1.6| 3/1
Real Estate | 0.6126| 0.1| 12/7
Energy | -1.3528| 0.0| 9/30
Communication Services | -3.4358| -0.5| 3/2
Materials | -20.3330| -0.4| 19/32
Shopify | 22.3200| 1.3| 20.0| 38.1
Nutrien | 15.0900| 5.6| 96.7| 29.6
Canadian Pacific | Kansas | 10.0800| 1.5| -16.0| 1.7
Franco-Nevada | -8.7990| -2.1| 44.4| 79.6
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | -9.1270| -1.1| -20.6| 108.7
TD Bank | -11.8500| -0.9| 66.0| 45.2
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted its fourth successive record close, buoyed by some rare and critical minerals stocks, even as gold and oil prices were down.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 52.92 points to 30,160.59, with most sectors higher, led by Health Care up near 2.3% and the Battery Metals Index up 1.6%.
Among decliners, Energy was down 0.65% and Telecoms down close to 0.2%.
On the broader market, Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, noted the TSX had “blasted higher” by 54% over two years to the end of September,, one of the top seven performances from it over such a timeframe in the past 60 years.
And Porter also noted, at least a few of the bigger two-year gains were “snapbacks from very deep dives” (e.g., drops in early 1980s, 2009, 2020).
“This stunning run has arrived despite a decidedly so-so economic backdrop, when real GDP growth has averaged little more than 1% and the jobless rate has pushed higher,” he said.
What, Porter asked, does the TSX run tell us about the outlook? He said: “Over time, to be sure, there is a clear, positive relationship between the TSX and real GDP growth, but the index only leads by a quarter.
And, when looked at over a two-year period, the correlation coefficient of 0.38suggests it’s not an especially air-tight relationship.”
He noted the figure is closer to 0.50 since the early 1980s.
“And, sadly,” Porter added, “the recent equity surge has not come close to being matched by growth (in part dueto the spike in gold prices).
But the good news is that the TSX certainly offers a positive counterpoint to the many other downbeat headlines on the current economy.”
Within the broader market, commodities have traditionally been a vital component.
But today, gold fell off a record high Thursday, trading lower as traders take profits and the dollar rose.
Gold for December delivery was down $15.70 to US$3,881.80 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude continued to slide, falling for a fourth day to a near five-month low on reports OPEC+ plans a big supply hike for next month, while demand slows and U.S. inventories rose more than expected last week.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $1.30 to $60.48 per barrel, the lowest since May 9, while December Brent crude was down more than $1.20 to nearer US$64.10.
But the day was, at least in part, rescued by big and small, rare-earth players like Energy Fuels (EFR.TO, UUUU) and Ucore Rare Metals (UCU.V), both of which were mentioned by veteran market watcher David Rosenberg in a note published today with his ‘rare’ and critical’ investment thesis. Energy Fuels closed up 7.6% while Ucore gained 14%.
Among key takeaways from in his note, David Rosenberg said the rare-earth elements sector presents “one of the most strategically compelling investment opportunities in 2025, driven by unprecedented government support, supply chain restructuring, defense sector modernization, and explosive demand from clean energy technologies”.
Rosenberg said the rare earth investment thesis “combines multiple reinforcing demand drivers with a constrained supply response”, and he believes that it is vital to always have exposure to investment themes that are of strategic importance and represent national security issues.
“Tremendous government support and an ongoing geopolitical risk/supply security premium, underscored by China’s moves to weaponize its reserves, serve as a floor under the price that traditional commodity markets (such as most base metals and oil) do not enjoy to nearly the same degree,” he added.
At the conclusion of his note, Rosenberg said when he looks at investment implications for investors, he likes to elaborate on potential sea changes and sees that in the supply dynamics of rare earth market fundamentals.
According to Rosenberg, the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) is the global, comprehensive vehicle to “play this theme”.
Rosenberg said this fund provides diversified exposure to the global rare-earth value chain while maintaining a pure-play focus through companies deriving 50% or more of their revenue from rare earths.
He noted the Fund has exposure to industry players and noted that Energy Fuels provides dual exposure to uranium and rare earth markets and also identified a smaller-cap name such as Ucore, “for allocators going further out on the risk curve”.
Rosenberg added: “In the quest for long-term stability and diversification of global supply chains for rare earths, we believe global investors should have these key “power moves” in their arsenal.”
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — The bullish momentum in US technology stocks won out after a rally to fresh highs was tested by the Trump administration’s plan to slash “thousands” of federal jobs in the second day of a government shutdown.
The Nasdaq 100 ended Thursday higher, climbing to a second- consecutive record after an OpenAI share sale bolstered optimism for artificial intelligence.
The deal catapulted the firm to the world’s most valuable startup with a valuation of $500 billion.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 1.9%, led by Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Intel Corp.
The S&P 500 eked out a 0.06% gain, erasing a 0.3% drop.
Investor jitters driven by the Trump administration’s plans were largely overlooked by the end of the session.
Republicans sought to use the threat of permanent cuts to encourage Democrats to vote to reopen the government.
Trump plans to meet with White House Budget Director Russell Vought to discuss the plan.
Among individual movers, shares of Tesla Inc. fell 5.1% after the company reported a surprise increase in quarterly vehicle sales.
Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli said delivery numbers were “a lot better than the print forecast but actual expectations were a lot higher,” as bears see the electric- vehicle market poised for a downturn.
The stock’s slump weighed on key US benchmarks.
Traders were also contending with the temporary blackout in economic readouts after Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims numbers were delayed by the government closure.
If the shutdown extends the lack of data could put further interest-rate cuts in jeopardy.
Figures from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed US employers dialed back hiring plans in September, even though they also announced fewer job cuts.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls data on Friday will also likely be delayed.
“A quick shutdown that sets back the report a few days might not move the needle, but a long one that also threatens release of mid-month inflation data might keep the Fed on the sidelines, unwilling to cut rates at its late October meeting without the data,” according to Joe Mazzola, head trading and derivatives strategist at Charles Schwab Corp.
“There are signs that a standoff could be lengthy, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying a prolonged closure might hurt US economic growth.”
The dollar climbed, its first advance after four-days of losses.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell to 4.08%.
In commodity markets, a rally in gold cooled after reaching a record while oil fell for a fourth consecutive day.
West Texas Intermediate dipped below $61 a barrel, touching the lowest level in four months as expectations of OPEC+ restoring more idled supply deepened fears of a global glut.
Rate-Cut Bets
Money markets are still almost fully pricing a quarter- point Fed cut at the end of the month and are widely expecting another in December to support the labor market.
“If you really dig into the labor market data, it’s not just an AI structural story, it’s not just a lower immigration story, you are seeing that cyclical demand weakness,” Kim Crawford, global rates portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg Television.
“The clearest part to this puzzle is wage growth, there is a lack of wage growth in the US.”
Some strategists noted that past shutdowns have typically had little macroeconomic impact.
At a White House press conference on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance said he doesn’t anticipate a long shutdown, adding that layoffs will come if it lasts for days or weeks.  

Corporate News:
* Boeing Co.’s 777X is slated to fly commercially for the first time in early 2027 instead of next year, people familiar with the matter said, a fresh setback to the US plane maker that sets the stage for potentially billions of dollars in accounting charges.
* Fair Isaac jumped 18% after unveiling a program that lets mortgage lenders calculate and deliver FICO scores directly to customers. TransUnion and Equifax Inc. slumped.
* Funds under the UBS Group AG umbrella face more than half a billion dollars of exposure to bankrupt auto-parts supplier First Brands Group through various investment strategies, with one ranking as the biggest unsecured creditor, court documents show.
* German artificial intelligence language platform DeepL is exploring a potential initial public offering in the US, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reached a deal to buy Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s petrochemical business for about $9.7 billion in cash.

Some of the main moves in markets: 
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index rose 1.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1718
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3443
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 147.25 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.8% to $120,917.59
* Ether rose 3.7% to $4,497.68
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.09%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.71%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $60.65 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,855.28 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from James Hirai, Julien Ponthus, Andre Janse van Vuuren and Kwaku Gyasi.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The history of our race, and each individual’s experience, are sown thick with evidence that a truth is not hard to kill
and that a lie told well is immortal. -Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Autumn is the hardest season. Leaves are all falling like they are falling in love with the ground. –Andrea Gibson, 1975-2025.

October 1, 1890: Yosemite National Park established.
October 1, 1908: Henry Ford introduced the Model T automobile to the market; each car cost $825. Go to article
October 1, 1949: Mao Zedong proclaims the founding of the People’s Republic of China, reshaping world order in East Asia.
October 1, 1962: Johnny Carson takes over as host of NBC’s Tonight Show, with Groucho Marx as hi8s first guest.

Julie Andrews, actress, b.  1935.

Life-size rock art points the way to oldest human inhabitants of Saudi Arabia — and the desert oases they used

Archaeologists in Saudi Arabia have discovered hundreds of rock art engravings that were carved by humans more than 12,000 years ago. Read More.

Scientists have digitally removed the ‘death masks’ from four Colombian mummies, revealing their faces for the first time

The reconstructions are based on the skulls of four mummified individuals who had masks tightly fitted on their faces. Read More.

Stars that brush past black holes live longer, stranger lives after their close encounters with death

A new study shows survivor stars can live billions of years longer than normal, carrying chemical fingerprints of their violent encounters with the Milky Way’s black hole. Read More.

‘I honestly am not sure on this at all’: Poll reveals public uncertainty over experimenting on conscious lab-grown ‘mini brains’
Hundreds of readers responded to our poll asking if it would be OK to experiment on lab-grown “brains” if they became conscious. Read More.

The richest deal in NHL history
The Minnesota Wild signed Kirill Kaprizov to an 8-year, $136 million extension on Tuesday, giving him the richest contract in NHL history.

Zillow and Redfin face FTC lawsuit
Home-search website Zillow allegedly paid its rival Redfin $100 million to dominate online rental listings, the FTC said in a new lawsuit.

“She was just my daughter yesterday, but today she is a goddess.”

 

— Ananta Shakya, after his 2-year-old daughter Aryatara was chosen in Nepal as the new living goddess worshipped by both Hindus and Buddhists.

RIP JANE GOODALL
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Shepton Mallet, UK
Cattle are prepared for judging at the Dairy Show at the Bath and West showground
Photograph: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

Seoul, South Korea
People walk though a field of yellow cosmos flowers at Olympic Park
Photograph: Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Sydney, Australia
France’s Lucie Prioux competes in the women’s canoe final at the 2025 ICF Slalom World Championships at the Penrith Whitewater stadium
Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 1st, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46441.10	+43.21
		+0.09%
S&P 500	6711.20	+22.74
		+0.34%
NASDAQ	22755.16	+95.15
		+0.42%
TSX	30107.67	+84.86
		+0.28%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44550.85	-381.78
		-0.85%
HANG SENG	26855.56	+232.68
		+0.87%
SENSEX	80983.31	+715.69
		+0.89%
FTSE 100*	9446.43	+96.00
		+1.03%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.184	3.183
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.663	3.631
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0981	4.1503
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7095	4.7310

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7174	0.7182
US $	1.3939	1.3923

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6358	0.6113
US $	1.1735	0.8521

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3825.30	3826.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.78	62.37

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1958, American Express introduced its charge card, which was made of paper printed with purple ink to match the color of Amex’s travelers’ checks. (Plastic came along in 1959.) The $6 annual fee was 20% higher than that of the competing Diners Club card.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 0.3%, or 84.86 to 30,107.67 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 0.9%.
Novagold Resources Inc. had the largest increase, rising 15.0%.
Today, 139 of 213 shares rose, while 72 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 35.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.2% in the past 5 days and rose 5.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 on a trailing basis and 18.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.8t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 6.91% compared with 6.91% in the previous session and the average of 8.14% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 47.2113| 0.9| 37/14
Information Technology | 29.4452| 1.0| 5/4
Financials | 9.7377| 0.1| 11/13
Utilities | 7.4489| 0.7| 9/5
Communication Services | 5.5483| 0.9| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 5.3130| 0.6| 5/4
Industrials | 4.6890| 0.1| 18/10
Health Care | 1.8554| 2.3| 4/0
Consumer Staples | 0.0749| 0.0| 3/7
Real Estate | -0.4674| -0.1| 14/5
Energy | -26.0142| -0.6| 28/10
Shopify | 15.8500| 0.9| -36.0| 36.4
Barrick Mining | 15.3600| 2.8| -42.3| 110.9
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 10.2200| 1.2| -55.9| 111.0
Brookfield Corp | -8.2340| -0.9| -43.0| 14.6
Nutrien | -9.4500| -3.4| 4.6| 22.7
Enbridge | -15.9800| -1.5| -24.1| 13.4
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted it’s third-straight record close on Wednesday, a first such string of records since mid-September, boosted by gold’s rise to a record high, which led to Base Metals being among leading sectors, most of which were higher.
With the Energy sector one of only a few losers on the day, down a modest 0.15%, Base Metals helped push the resource-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index up 84.86 points. or 0.3%, to 30,107.67.
Health Care was the biggest gainer, up near 3%.
Still, it was the Energy sector that was very much in the news late Wednesday afternoon as Alberta’s government, acting as proponent, said it will lead a technical advisory group of companies with indigenous participants to advance a West Coast pipeline application
Among commodities, gold had traded at a fresh record late midafternoon Wednesday as the partial shutdown of the U.S. government today prompted further safe-haven buying, while a report showed the U.S. private sector shed jobs last month, showing a slowing economy and boosting the outlook for interest-rate cuts.
Gold for December delivery was up $17.00 to US$3,890.20 per ounce.
However, likely limiting overall market gains, West Texas Intermediate oil closed lower for a third day following a report saying OPEC+ is mulling an outsized production increase in November, while U.S. inventories rose more than expected last week.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $0.59 to settle at US$61.78 per barrel, while December Brent crude was last seen down $0.71 to US$65.32.
Still on commodity related issues, Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, noted that over the past year, U.S. electricity prices have bolted higher by 6.2%.
“Amazingly,” he said, “that is actually a tad cooler than the supercharged 6.5% average annual increase over the past five years”.
According to Porter, there’s no mystery as to what’s going on here as the “voracious appetite” for power from data centers has “sent once-sleepy electricity demand skyward”.
Given electricity’s near-2.5% weight in the CPI, the price surge has alone contributed 0.15 ppt to overall inflation, or about 0.1 ppt more than what would be ‘normal’ price increases in the sector, he Porter added.
Porter noted it’s currently “a more moderate picture” in Canada, both because of “somewhat” less frothy demand and more regulated prices. In fact, he said, while rising 3.2% on average in the past five years, half the U.S. pace-electricity costs are up just 1.4% in the past year.
On the economics front, Tiago Figueiredo, a Desjardins macro strategist, said, after reading the Bank of Canada’s latest ‘Summary of Deliberations’, there were several developments since the July Monetary Policy Report that pushed the BoC to resume an interest rate easing cycle in September, even as there were some arguments in favor of keeping policy unchanged, while Governing Council members didn’t offer any clues about the future path.
According to Figueiredo, a softening labor market, particularly in parts of the economy that were not as trade exposed “startled” the Governing Council.
He noted: given that survey data pointed to subdued hiring intentions, policymakers were worried that ongoing “uncertainty about U.S. trade policy could lead to further labour market weakness across the economy”.
And outside of the labor market, the latest inflation data also suggested that, one, upward momentum in core inflation had dissipated, and two, the federal government’s decision to remove most retaliatory tariffs meant less upward pressure on prices going forward.
While members agreed that upside risks to price growth had diminished, they had not gone away, Figueiredo noted.
The Governing Council viewed the strong consumption growth in the second quarter as a potential indicator of stronger economic momentum going forward, Figueiredo said, before adding they pointed to past rate cuts as potential drivers of that strength and reiterated that past rate cuts were still spreading through the economy.
But, Figueiredo said, the Governing Council noted that easing trade uncertainty would likely mean policymakers would present a baseline projection at the October MPR.
Governing Council emphasized that they would continue to look over a shorter horizon than usual.
“Today’s release doesn’t change the story for us and we continue to see the balance of risks skewed towards further easing.
As such, we anticipate that policymakers will lower the overnight rate to a trough of 2.00%,” he added.
US
By Rheaa Rao
(Bloomberg) — US stocks ended Wednesday’s session higher, notching a new record and seemingly shrugging off the first government shutdown in nearly seven years.
Treasuries rallied after private payrolls data reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates later this month.
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rose for a fourth consecutive session.
On Wednesday, the former was boosted by the health-care sector on optimism stemming from Pfizer Inc.’s deal with the White House.
Tech names like Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. also helped push the index 0.3% higher for the day.
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.08% before hovering around 4.10%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held steady.
Gold reached a fresh all-time high.
The government shutdown threatens a blackout in crucial economic data that the Fed needs to make its rate decisions, meaning economists, traders and policymakers will rely more on private reports like the ones that came in on Wednesday.
The ADP report showed payrolls at US companies unexpectedly dropped in September, consistent with other data over the past month indicating that the labor market is slowing.
That prompted traders to add to bets on two more Fed rate cuts this year.
US factory activity shrank in September for a seventh straight month, according to the Institute for Supply Management.
The JOLTS report on Tuesday, had signaled that demand for
workers are slowing, giving traders a snapshot of the labor market at a time the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls data will likely be delayed.
Given all this information, some investors don’t think the absence of Friday’s report will derail the Fed.
“We believe that even if the September nonfarm payroll report cannot be published before the Fed meeting, officials will have enough information about the labor market to deliver another 25-basis point ‘insurance’ cut at the October meeting,” said Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at Berenberg.
Others are also looking at previous shutdowns to determine that such events don’t last long and often have a negligible macroeconomic impact.
“What sets this shutdown apart is the threat of permanent layoffs for non-essential federal staff, which, while possibly political bluster and subject to legal challenges, could prolong the drag on public sector payrolls,” Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.
At a White House press conference on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance said he doesn’t anticipate a long shutdown, adding that layoffs will come if it lasts days or weeks.
Republicans are leaning into hardball tactics to pressure Democrats to cave to end the shutdown, with White House Budget Director Russell Vought planning to swiftly dismiss federal workers.
But for now, Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup’s head of US equity trading strategy, doesn’t really see the shutdown hurting stocks.
“For this to really impact equity markets you’re going to need it to last for a while, you’re going to need to see pretty large layoffs, or something happen in the bond market to spill over into the equity market,” he said on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Late-in-the-year seasonality favors stocks as the dominant US asset, while the dollar has been doomed to be a laggard.
This year is likely to follow that pattern, even as a US shutdown adds a new factor into the mix.”
— Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live
That said, on the long term, the government shutdown could magnify concerns about US policy stability, Lauren Goodwin, economist and chief market strategist at New York Life Investments, wrote in a note.
“Investors can operate under a simple rule of thumb: the longer a shutdown lasts, the greater its effects on consumer confidence, economic activity, and market outcomes,” she said. 

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1730
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3479
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 147.10 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $117,390.42
* Ether rose 3.3% to $4,334.3
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.10%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.70%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $61.97 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,867.16 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren, Emily Graffeo, Isabelle Lee and Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress; working together is success. –Edward Everett Hale, 1822-1909.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Last day of Q3.
September 30, 1452: Gutenberg Bible published.
September 30, 1882: The first commercial hydroelectric power plant begins operation in Appleton, Wisconsin, showing how electricity could be generated at scale.
September 30, 2004: Merck & Co. pulled Vioxx, its heavily promoted arthritis drug, from the market after a study found it doubled the risk of heart attacks and strokes. Go to article.

September 30, 1955: James Dean killed in car crash.

Truman Capote, writer, b. 1924.
Elie Wiesel, Holocaust survivor & writer, b. 1928.

Ancient Egyptian statue of ‘Messi’ found at Saqqara necropolis is ‘only known example of its kind from the Old Kingdom’

A unique statue dating back to the fifth dynasty of ancient Egypt has been discovered at the necropolis of Saqqara. Read More.

Iran among ‘world’s most extreme subsidence hotspots’ with some areas sinking up to 1 foot per year, study finds

The extraction of water from aquifers in Iran is causing an area the size of Maryland to sink, exposing an estimated 650,000 people to the risks of subsidence and freshwater depletion. Read More.

Citation cartels, ghost writing and fake peer-review: Fraud is causing a crisis in science — here’s what we need to do to stop it

Opinion | Thousands of scientific papers are retracted every year because of fraudulent activity, with both authors and journals gaming a system to gain academic acclaim through deceit, dishonesty and false representation. Read More.

Physicists find a loophole in Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle without breaking it

By using something called a quantum grid, scientists have found a clever way to simultaneously measure momentum and position without violating Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle. Read More.

McDonald’s is bringing back Monopoly
The fast-food chain is reviving the fan-favorite game for a limited time — with a twist.

‘Dumbphones’ are getting smarter and more premium
Many people are swapping smartphones for “dumbphones” as a way to partially disconnect from digital distractions.

A celebrity breakup
After nearly 20 years of marriage, Nicole Kidman and Keith Urban have decided to go their separate ways.

Video game maker Electronic Arts is going private
Jared Kushner’s firm and the Saudis are taking video game maker EA private in a massive $55 billion deal.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Cali, Colombia
People take part in a parade to celebrate Biodiversity Week, which brings together leaders from Latin America and the Caribbean to propose solutions to the region’s environmental challenges
Photograph: Ernesto Guzman/EPA

Silver: Birds in Flight.
Through the Marigold, India. ‘The fields of marigolds around the village of Hiware Bazar are a sight to behold and seeing the flocks of swallows skimming over them gave me the idea for this photo. I noticed that some of the birds kept feeding over the same area and set up my camera so that I could fire it with a remote. This is one of the many thousands of photos I took and is the one I am most pleased with.’
Photograph: Baiju Patil

Australia’s best photos of the month – September 2025
An AFLW match between Hawthorn Hawks and Adelaide Crows at Kinetic Stadium in Melbourne
Photograph: Morgan Hancock/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 30^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46397.89	+50.90
		+0.17%
S&P 500	6688.46	+27.25
		+0.41%
NASDAQ	22660.01	+68.86
		+0.30%
TSX	30022.81	+50.90
		+0.17%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44932.63	-111.12
		-0.25%
HANG SENG	26855.56	+232.68
		+0.87%
SENSEX	80267.62	-97.32
		-0.12%
FTSE 100*	9350.43	+50.59
		+0.54%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.183	3.183
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.631	3.631
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1503	4.1387
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7310	4.7037

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7182	0.7186
US $	1.3923	1.3915

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6342	0.6119
US $	1.1737	0.8520

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3826.85	3769.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.37	65.72

Market Commentary:

On this day in 1981, Uncle Sam issued new 20-year Treasury bonds at a 15.78% yield, an all-time high rate for any U.S. government issue. Analysts expected that yields would have to go higher “to attract stronger demand.” Yields promptly began going down and do so for the next twelve years.

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.2%, or 50.9 to 30,022.81 in Toronto.
Enbridge Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.4%. Stella-Jones Inc. had the largest increase, rising 4.1%.
Today, 115 of 213 shares rose, while 97 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 21%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 12%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 5.1%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.1% below its 52-week high on Sept. 23, 2025 and 35.1% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.8t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.91% compared with 7.15% in the previous session and the average of 8.20% over the past month
Index Points
Materials | 31.4254| 0.6| 28/23
Industrials | 21.2707| 0.6| 20/9
Financials | 16.2899| 0.2| 16/8
Utilities | 6.1848| 0.6| 10/4
Consumer Staples | 3.6439| 0.4| 7/3
Real Estate | 0.0000| 0.1| 15/4
Health Care | -2.4281| -2.9| 0/4
Communication Services | -3.3086| -0.5| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary | -4.9859| -0.5| 5/4
Information Technology | -6.8500| -0.2| 3/6
Energy | -10.4463| -0.2| 9/30
Enbridge | 14.9200| 1.4| 3.8| 15.1
TC Energy | 9.3660| 1.7| 10.6| 13.0
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 8.7390| 1.3| 8.9| -0.4
Tourmaline Oil | -6.9790| -4.3| -12.1| -8.3
Canadian Natural Resources | -7.7300| -1.2| -62.7| 0.3
Brookfield Corp | -8.0330| -0.8| 73.0| 15.6
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange rallied late and eked out a second successive record close Tuesday, its first ever above the 30,000 mark, as market participants here continue to see enough reasons for investing in Canadian assets even amid the temptation for some profit taking and as U.S. President Donald Trump returns to his negative rhetoric around Canada’s sovereignty and economy.
Even with commodity prices mixed, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index still finished the session up 50.90 points or near 0.2% at 30,022.81 with sectors mixed.
The Battery Metals Index gained 4%, but other sectors rose by less than 1%.
Among decliners, Health Care was down 4.15% and Energy down 1.4%.
In recent weeks Canadian investors took advantage of there being less rhetoric on Canada from a distracted Trump, pushing the TSX to a series of record closes.
They appear to have be little fazed as Trump today returned to his talk of Canada becoming part of the United States during a speech to military leaders on Tuesday.
Also, Trump on Monday night imposed a new tariff on imports of softwood from Canada and other countries, effective Oct. 14.
Adding to today’s negative vibe, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower for a second day Tuesday, falling to a three-week low as the market focuses on supply hikes that are likely to raise production above demand.
WTI oil for November delivery closed down US$1.08 to US$62.37 per barrel, the lowest since Sept. 5, while November Brent crude was last seen down US$0.90 to US$67.07.
But helping to limit losses, gold was trading at a fresh record high late afternoon Tuesday on a weaker dollar and as concerns over a slowing U.S. economy and a likely partial shutdown of the U.S. government coming at midnight tonight continue to support the metal. Gold for December delivery was up US$31.80 to US$3,887.00 per ounce, up from a day-prior record close.
On the subject of precious metals, Rosenberg Research, in its latest update on the Rosie Fund which tracks its highest conviction calls and is dedicated to conservative investors, said it had taken some or its “immense” winnings in the precious metals space in a move to rebalance, but also to gain a toehold in one alternative area it has not been exposed to, but has “tremendous future upside potential”.
It has moved in to the critical minerals sector, into the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF, with the REMX ticker.
So, the Fund said, it has moved around -6 points out of its total gold and silver holdings and into the rare earths universe, “where underlying prices have corrected nicely and having formed a base to work off of”.
US
By Rheaa Rao
(Bloomberg) — US equities notched a second straight positive quarter even as stock moves were tepid for most of Tuesday’s session as the US government nears a shutdown.
The S&P 500 ended the day 0.4% higher after oscillating between small gains and losses for hours.
The index had its best September in 15 years, fueled by optimism over artificial intelligence and lower rates.
Treasuries gained for the third back-to-back quarter.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed for the month after falling for a third consecutive session.
Oil declined as OPEC+ considers boosting the pace of its output hikes in the coming months.
Traders are concerned this week that the shutdown would delay the release of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, clouding the Federal Reserve’s path of interest-rate cuts.
Economic data over the past month has showed that the labor market is slowing down while inflation is relatively under control — though still above the Fed’s 2% target.
BLS’ data would have provided more clarity on the state of the labor market and consequently the central bank’s pace of rate cuts for the rest of the year.
“Things could get ugly if the shutdown creates an information vacuum for jobs and inflation data ahead of the next Fed rate decision,” said Michael Bailey at FBB Capital Partners.
“Also, with stocks and valuations near prior peaks, we could see some minor bad news snowball into a correction near term.”
Traders are still getting glimpses this week of how the labor market is faring.
The JOLTS report on Tuesday showed US job openings were little changed in August while hiring was subdued, indicating that demand for workers is slowing.
Wednesday’s data will provide insight on company hiring.
The lack of key data on Friday in the event of a shutdown wouldn’t change the Fed’s decision for at least its upcoming meeting in October, according to David Seif, Nomura’s chief economist for developed markets.
“The less data that comes out, the less reason the Fed would have to deviate from the dot plot,” he said on Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.
“The dot plot indicates 25 basis points in October. It is our view that will happen, whether or not they get the data.”
There are ample investment opportunities a shutdown could create.
Citi Research says that the length of the shutdown is important to note, as stocks typically weaken in the event of longer shutdowns while rates rally.
Monica Guerra, head of US policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, writes that shutdowns in the past have had minimal negative impact on real GDP and S&P 500 performance historically.
“Sectors with high exposure to government contracts, such as defense and health care, may face weakness in a full shutdown scenario, indicating a buying opportunity given a positive long- term outlook for the sectors,” she wrote.
Traders have also been hearing from a handful of Fed speakers.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the most recent round of tariffs may be causing businesses in his district to again pause decision-making in order to see where the levies settle.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said further rate reductions may be appropriate this year given a weaker labor market, but officials need to remain wary about the possibility of persistent inflation.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned that the central bank faces a cooling labor market alongside rising inflation pressures, complicating the policy outlook.
“I see the risks to employment as tilted to the downside and risks to inflation to the upside,” Jefferson said in remarks prepared for the fourth International Monetary Policy Conference hosted by the Bank of Finland.
“It follows that both sides of our mandate are under pressure.”

Corporate News:
* Pfizer Inc. secured a reprieve from President Donald Trump’s long-threatened tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry Tuesday by agreeing to slash some of its drug prices by up to 85% and selling directly to the American public, a move other major
drugmakers are expected to follow.
* CoreWeave Inc. has signed a deal to supply Meta Platforms Inc. with as much as $14.2 billion worth of computing power.
* EchoStar Corp. shares jumped as the satellite-TV company engaged in talks to sell some of its wireless spectrum to Verizon Communications Inc.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. plans to cut about 2,000 jobs globally as the Texas oil company consolidates smaller offices into regional hubs as part of its long-term restructuring plan.
* Spotify Technology SA Chief Executive Officer Daniel Ek is stepping aside after almost two decades at the music streaming company he co-founded, leaving the leadership in the hands of two trusted executives.
* China’s state-run iron ore buyer has told major steelmakers and traders to temporarily halt purchases of all new BHP Group cargoes, escalating a pricing dispute that risks upending one of the mining giant’s most important trading partnerships.

Some of the main moves in markets: 
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4:03 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1738
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3444
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 147.90 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin was little changed at $114,271.76
* Ether fell 1.8% to $4,152.91
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.15%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.70%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.4% to $62.56 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,853.67 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren, Eman Abouhassira, Isabelle Lee, Vildana Hajric and Tatiana Darie.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
You have power over your mind – not outside events.  Realize this, and you will find strength. – Marcus Aurelius, 121-180 CE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  St, Michael’s Day, Michaelmas.
September 29, 1978: Pope John Paul I was found deceased in his Vatican apartment a little more than one month after becoming head of the Roman Catholic Church. Go to article.

Miguel de Cervantes, writer, b. 1547.
Horatio Nelson, nave hero, b. 1758.
Enrico Fermi, physicist, b. 1901.

Scientists asked ChatGPT to solve a math problem from more than 2,000 years ago — how it answered it surprised them

We’ve wondered for centuries whether knowledge is latent and innate or learned and grasped through experience, and a new research project is asking the same question about AI. Read More.

30,000-year-old ‘personal toolkit’ found in the Czech Republic provides ‘very rare’ glimpse into the life of a Stone Age hunter-gatherer

Archaeologists have found an extraordinary cluster of Stone Age artifacts that may have been the personal gear of a single prehistoric individual. Read More.

‘If there is a space race, China’s already winning it’: NASA unlikely to bring Mars samples back to Earth before China does, experts say

What if the first Martian rock samples ever deliberately hauled back to Earth landed not in Houston, but in Beijing? Read More.

Scientists unveil world’s first quantum computer built with regular silicon chips

A London-based startup has created the world’s first full-stack quantum computer using a standard silicon CMOS chip fabrication process. Read More.

Mysterious cosmic explosion can’t be explained, scientists say

Researchers have detected a gamma-ray burst outside of the Milky Way that’s unlike any previously observed. There’s no satisfying explanation for the mysterious cosmic explosion, but it may be linked to elusive intermediate-mass black holes. Read More.

Europe wins Ryder Cup
Team USA’s incredible rally on the final day of the Ryder Cup was one for the ages, but Europe managed to fend off the charge.

6 scenic fall drives where you can get your foliage fix this year
From New England to the West, here are six scenic roadways that will leaf you breathless.

A short history of the world’s tallest buildings
For centuries, civilizations have built upward — and with modern technology, that drive has only intensified. Watch this video to see how some tall buildings are stretching the limits of engineering.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Kishoreganj, Bangladesh
The Baherbali Model high school in the haor wetlands. For nearly nine months of the year the school is surrounded by water, and boats become the only means of reaching the building
Photograph: Syed Mahabubul Kader/Zuma/Shutterstock

Eagles, Donalds and bubbly: Ryder Cup 2025
A more serene scene of Bethpage.
Photograph: James Marsh/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Queenstown, New Zealand
Wingfoiler Bryan McGlynn glides on the waters of Lake Wakatipu
Photograph: Sanka Vidanagama/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Market Closes for September 29^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46316.07	+68.78
		+0.15%
S&P 500	6661.21	+17.51
		+0.26%
NASDAQ	22591.16	+107.09
		+0.48%
TSX	29971.91	+210.63
		+0.71%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45043.75	-311.24
		-0.69%
HANG SENG	26622.88	+498.68
		+1.89%
SENSEX	80364.94	-61.52
		-0.08%
FTSE 100*	9299.84	+15.01
		+0.16%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.183	3.226
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.631	3.669
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1387	4.1755
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7037	4.7487

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7186	0.7170
US $	1.3915	1.3947

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6321	0.6127
US $	1.1728	0.8526

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3769.85	3730.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.72	65.72

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1987, Charles Schwab launched its IPO, selling 8 million shares of stock to the public at an original price of $16.50 apiece. Just 20 days later, the crash of 1987 hit. The stock market plunged 23% in a single day, and Schwab’s stock was hammered down to $6.50 a share. The stock has returned over 52,000% since then.
Carry on any enterprise as if all future success depended on it. – Armand Jean du Plessis “Cardinal Richelieu”, 1585-1642.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.7%, or 210.63 to 29,971.91 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.1% on Sept. 19.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 144 of 213 shares rose, while 67 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 6.2%.
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. had the largest increase, rising 34.9%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 21%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 12%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.9%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on Sept. 23, 2025 and 34.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 4.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.76t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.15% compared with 7.03% in the previous session and the average of 8.33% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 123.2631| 4.3| 9/0
Materials | 56.6093| 1.1| 42/9
Financials | 30.8982| 0.3| 19/5
Industrials | 15.8259| 0.5| 20/9
Consumer Staples | 11.8468| 1.2| 10/0
Utilities | 4.1888| 0.4| 12/2
Health Care | 3.8303| 4.7| 3/1
Communication Services | 2.2065| 0.3| 4/1
Consumer Discretionary | 0.8430| 0.1| 3/6
Real Estate | 0.4153| 0.1| 16/2
Energy | -39.3200| -0.8| 6/32
Shopify | 102.8000| 6.2| 24.9| 35.6
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 15.5500| 1.9| -13.3| 106.5
Constellation | Software | 14.8400| 2.9| 64.4| -15.3
Suncor | -7.7930| -1.6| -46.5| 14.0
Canadian Natural | Resources | -7.8760| -1.2| -52.2| 1.5
Barrick Mining | -23.1100| -4.0| 31.1| 106.9
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange eked out another record close on Monday, its first in a week, as Rosenberg Research said, “equity markets are frothing, and central banks are committed enablers” before adding “there is no reliable method or quick formula for calling the turn in a FOMO-driven market”.
Despite mixed commodity prices, the S&P/TSX Composite Index finished the day up 210.63 points or 0.7% at 29,9971.91, with most sectors higher and Healthcare leading the way in rising 7.6%.
Cannabis stocks were higher after U.S. president Donald Trump endorsed the benefits of CBD for seniors.
Curaleaf (CURA.TO) jumped near 35%.
Capping gains, Energy was down near 1.5%.
According to Dow Jones Market Data and FactSet, going into today’s trading day the TSX was down near 0.6% from its record close of 29,958.98 on Sept. 22.
It was up 32.2% from its 2025 closing low of 22,506.90 on April 8, up 4.2% month to date; and up more than 20% year to date.
On broader markets, Research Economist Mehmet Beceren at Rosenberg Research published a note entitled ‘Will the Exuberance Engine Stall? Three Key Signals to Watch’ in which he said “equity markets are frothing, and central banks are committed enablers”. While writing with the United States in particular focus, he noted the debate over a growing stock bubble is gaining traction, but complacency is also taking root under the Fed’s easing cycle.
“FOMO (fear of missing out) dominates the market, and few can afford to sit it out,” Beceren said.
He noted there are many comparisons to past bubbles for timing a reversal, but there is no reliable method or quick formula for calling the turn in a FOMO-driven market.
“Each cycle is different, yet they rhyme, especially on how the narrative develops and how sources of leverage provide the primary fuel,” he added.
Beceren said: “A compelling technological breakthrough story, easy monetary policy, and opportunistic excessive leverage built up via some seemingly smart financial innovations are the three main ingredients of a “one big bullish buying” spree in the financial markets. That pattern repeats itself consistently in every boom-bust cycle.”
He added: “When we look at the historical data on market cycles, big reversals may seem to be predictable by a set of macro indicators — but that only works in retrospect.
By the time the underlying financial issues become visible in the macro data, it is usually too late.
Therefore, investors should pay close attention to micro developments in areas of the economy that are fueling the financial leverage engine which might sputter in the future.
Local cash flow problems and sequential contagion through the tightening credit channel are the key components.
One needs to follow micro developments in certain areas for the smoke signals.”
In this cycle, Beceren recommends focusing on three key indicators that might be the most relevant for the high-powered exuberance engine: crypto-driven leverage and crypto-treasury mania; AI-driven capex and bond supply; and the long yields.
Elsewhere, Wells Fargo Investment Institute noted stocks are “generally not as expensive” as the 25 times S&P 500 Index price to earnings (P/E) multiple would suggest.
“With full valuations,” it said, “we expect equities to be driven by robust-earnings growth rather than multiple expansion through year-end 2026.
We would view meaningful pullbacks as opportunities to add exposure to equities.”
Among individual stocks Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO, TD), Canada’s second-largest bank by market value, was up 0.7% and hit a fresh 52-week high as it released a long-awaited presentation to investors that reintroduced financial targets suspended last year and laid out plans to further cut costs and return capital to shareholders, as The Wall Street Journal reported.
“While our business is strong, we are committed to regaining leading performance,” President and Chief Executive Raymond Chun said in slides with his presentation.
TD had suspended financial targets including earnings guidance late last year as it reviewed its business options following a U.S. settlement stemming from lapses in its anti-money-laundering controls in the United States and Canada.
Ironically then, Canada’s consumer-finance regulator today hit TD with a separate C$5.5 million fine for errors that led to customers overpaying interest and principal costs.
For the 2026 fiscal year, The WSJ noted, TD said it is targeting annual growth in adjusted earnings per share of 6-8% and an adjusted return on equity of about 13%.
MT Newswires Canada noted it also targets a CET1 Ratio of 13%; Adjusted Expense Growth of 3-4%; and a PCL ratio of 40-50 basis points.
The bank said it expects to return some C$15 billion to shareholders in the next fiscal year, helped by money raised from the sale of its stake in Charles Schwab.
Of that sum $8 billion will be returned via share buybacks and $7 billion in common dividends.
This is after returning about $13.4 billion through buybacks and dividends in the current year that concludes at the end of October.
In the medium term, The WSJ noted, the bank said it was aiming for adjusted per-share earnings growth of 7-10% by fiscal 2029 and an adjusted return on equity of about 16%.
The WSJ also noted restructuring and other efforts are expected to deliver between $2 billion and $2.5 billion in annualized cost savings over the medium term, including about $1.1 billion the bank expects to save in the 2027 to 2028 years.
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high late afternoon Monday on strong safe haven buying ahead of a likely shutdown of the U.S. government at midnight on Tuesday, while the dollar weakened.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up US$46.40 to US$3,855.40 per ounce, topping the Sept. 23 record close of US$3,815.70.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed sharply lower on reports OPEC+ plans to increase production again in November, adding to concerns the market is becoming oversupplied as the cartel continues to look to boost its market share and price competitors out of the market.
WTI oil for November delivery closed down US$2.27 to settle at US$63.45 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down US$2.44 to US$67.69.
US
By Rheaa Rao
(Bloomberg) — Stocks posted modest gains on Monday as concerns mounted about a looming US government shutdown possibly delaying the release of key labor-market data that could provide clues about how fast the Federal Reserve will cut interest
rates.
Treasury yields fell across the curve.
The S&P 500 ended the session 0.3% higher.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4% after climbing nearly 1% earlier.
The Bloomberg dollar index pared earlier losses after pending home sales for August jumped to the highest level in five months.
The US Treasury 10-year yield declined to 4.14% — shutdowns are typically associated with gains for bonds because of their potential to restrain the economy.
Gold, a safe-haven asset, hit a record.
Investors are worried that the threat of a US government shutdown could hinder some crucial data releases that they require to discern how the US economy is doing.
That includes Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which would offer details on how the labor market is holding up and help the Fed decide how many more times to cut rates this year.
“Given the importance of the job market to the Fed’s rate- cutting decisions, risk that the September unemployment report could be delayed could add to the market’s anxiety over the direction of policy,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab.
Uncertainty around trade policies also persists as Trump said he would levy new tariffs to boost the domestic film and furniture industries through a pair of sweeping — yet confusing — plans.
Emma Wall, chief investment strategist at Hargreaves Lansdown, wrote that investors should be mindful that the inflationary impact of tariffs is not properly seen in numbers just yet.
“Further tax hikes — such as the 100% pharmaceuticals levy announced last week — are likely to add pricing pressures,” she said.
Separately, economists rejected Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran’s first major policy speech, in which he argued that the Trump administration’s policies have significantly lowered the level of interest rates needed to guard against inflation.
Miran still doubled down on his stance, saying the Fed risks damaging the economy by not moving rapidly to cut interest rates.
Apart from Friday’s jobs report, there’s also the JOLTs report releasing on Tuesday that will offer a picture on job openings while Wednesday’s data will shed light on company hiring.
Strategists said the recent negative revisions and downtrend in jobs numbers will raise the stakes for Friday’s release.
“We could be set for some notable volatility around these prints going forward as the breakeven payroll rate now seems to be around or under 50,000 a month,” wrote Jim Reid, global head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank AG.
“We are not really conditioned to negative prints being within that margin of error, so reactions to such prints may be not rational.”
On Monday, investors also heard from a handful of Fed speakers. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said that while he’s open to further rate cuts, policymakers should move carefully, since inflation is still running above target.
New York Fed President John Williams, on the other hand, said inflation risks have come down, but those for employment have moved up.
He didn’t indicate whether he might support another rate cut when policymakers next gather in late October.
Looming Shutdown
Top congressional leaders will meet with President Donald Trump at the White House a day before federal funding would expire if the two parties can’t agree on a short-term spending bill.
The bill would only fund the government until mid-November and must pass before Oct. 1.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“A record run in stocks has proven formidable against the scare of shutdowns, which explains why investors are hardly spooked by the latest threat of government closure.
In past instances of either an actual or threatened shutdown, the S&P 500 did get hit momentarily.
Yet any impact tends to be short- lived and has hardly stopped the index from eventually reaching all-time highs.”
—Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Global Head of Equities, UBS Global Wealth Management, urges investors to look past shutdown fears and pay attention to other market drivers, such as the Fed’s path, strong corporate earnings and robust AI capex.
“We continue to prefer quality fixed income, particularly those with medium-term maturities, which we believe offers a compelling combination of income and resilience in the event of slower growth,” Hoffmann-Burchardi said.
Valuations
Equities investors have recently been irked about valuations being too high, prompting them to ditch stocks for a few sessions last week.
But a growing number of Wall Street analysts are now advising that it may be time to forget what you thought you knew about price-to-earnings ratios, as the average multiple has steadily jumped higher over the course of decades.
In key company news, Electronic Arts Inc. has agreed to sell itself in the largest leveraged buyout on record to a group of investors that includes a firm managed by President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. 
Some of the main moves in markets: 
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1727
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3435
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 148.64 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $114,314.98
* Ether rose 3.5% to $4,193.83
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.14%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.70%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.8% to $63.20 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.8% to $3,828.55 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren, Eman Abouhassira, Isabelle Lee and Alexandra Semenova.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Our greatest foes, and whom we must chiefly combat, are within. -Miguel de Cervantes, 1547-1616.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
September 26, 1904: Earl Grey is named British Governor-General of Canada. Go to article.
September 26, 1960: First televised presidential debate.
September 26, 1983: Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer, correctly identifies a missile warning as a false alarm, preventing a potential nuclear war.

Johnny Appleseed, farmer, b. 1774.
T.S. Eliot, poet, b. 1888.
George Gershwin, composer, b. 1898
John Smiley, writer, b. 1949.

He just became the first to ski down Everest without bottled oxygen
A 37-year-old professional skier just carved his name into history with a daring Everest descent. See the video here.

Photo gallery: Dramatic images capture the world’s storms
These “storm” images were shortlisted for the prestigious Prix Pictet, a global award recognizing excellence in photography and sustainability. 

A medical breakthrough
A gene therapy trial was found to slow the progression of Huntington’s disease, marking a significant step toward a potential first genetic treatment for the brain condition.

Katie Couric spoofs Sydney Sweeney
Katie Couric spoofed Sydney Sweeney’s controversial denim ad to raise awareness about colon cancer. 

FIFA unveils mascots for 2026 World Cup
The mascots set to star at FIFA’s 2026 World Cup are Clutch the Bald Eagle, Maple the Moose and Zayu the Jaguar. See them here.

5: That’s the number of years that former French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been sentenced to serve in prison. A Paris court on Thursday found him guilty of criminal conspiracy in an alleged scheme to finance his 2007 campaign with funds from Libya.

The 45th Ryder Cup gets underway
Launched in 1927, the Ryder Cup is a biennial tournament that pits the best golfers from the US and Europe against each other. Here’s what you need to know before they tee off today.

“I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but ever since Trump got back into office, he’s been waging a campaign of vengeance against his enemies who he believes have been trying to take him down,” Stephen Colbert said on Thursday.
“Now he’s focused all of his rage on the one foe who refused to take him up, and that is the U.N.’s escalator.” — STEPHEN COLBERT

1 million-year-old skull from China holds clues to the origins of Neanderthals, Denisovans and humans

Reconstruction of a 1 million-year-old skull shows that early human groups split and diversified quickly. Read More.

Rare wampum beads discovered at 17th-century colony in Newfoundland. 
Archaeologists in Newfoundland have discovered seven tiny beads known as wampum that are made from seashells. They may be the first ever found in the province. Read More.

‘We thought it was a problem with the instrument’: Scientists shocked by rare ‘Einstein cross’ with a surprise in the center

An image of a distant galaxy warped by a cosmic magnifying glass reveals a massive blob of dark matter hiding in plain sight. Read More.

Scientific breakthrough leads to ‘fluorescent biological qubit’ — it could mean turning your cells into quantum sensors

Fluorescent proteins can be turned into qubits within cells and could give us a deeper understanding of biology at the nanoscale level. Read More.

95 million-year-old ‘tiny, tiny skull’ from never-before-seen crocodile-like creature discovered in Montana

Researchers have described a whole new family of extinct crocodyliforms based on the fossilized remains of a single teenage croc named Elton discovered in the Blackleaf Formation. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kigali, Rwanda
Alberto Carlo Monti of the Czech Republic competes in the men’s under-23 individual time trial during the 98th UCI Cycling World Championships
Photograph: David Ramos/Getty

Santa Cruz County, Arizona, US
Trump is forging ahead with a new section of border wall in San Rafael Valley, which will threaten wildlife in a remote area where many rare animals – but few people – roam
Photograph: Cheney Orr/Reuters

atwalk strut … Magellanic penguins head for the sea, watched by an admiring crowd, after their release from a rehabilitation clinic in Punta del Este at the southern tip of Uruguay
Photograph: Matilde Campodonico/AP
Market Closes for September 26^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46247.29	+299.97
		+0.65%
S&P 500	6643.70	+38.98
		+0.59%
NASDAQ	22484.07	+99.37
		+0.44%
TSX	29761.28	+29.30
		+0.10%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45354.99	-399.94
		-0.87%
HANG SENG	26128.20	-356.48
		-1.35%
SENSEX	80426.46	-733.22
		-0.90%
FTSE 100*	9284.83	+70.85
		+0.77%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.226	3.224
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.669	3.671
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1755	4.1698
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7487	4.7477

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7170	0.7173
US $	1.3947	1.3941

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6321	0.6127
US $	1.1731	0.8544

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3730.75	3761.60
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.72	65.71

Market Commentary:
On this day in 2001, Enron CEO Kenneth Lay led an online employee chat in which he urged the company’s workers to “talk up the stock.” He declared: “My personal belief is that Enron stock is an incredible bargain at current prices, and we will look back a couple of years from now and see the great opportunity that we currently have.” It soon filed the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 29,761.28 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.2%.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. had the largest increase, rising 13.3%.
Today, 131 of 213 shares rose, while 79 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 20%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 11%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.2%
* So far this week, the index was little changed, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Aug. 1
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1% below its 52-week high on Sept. 23, 2025 and 33.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 18.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.76t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.03% compared with 7.06% in the previous session and the average of 8.59% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 94.8249| 1.9| 48/3
Financials | 19.4602| 0.2| 13/11
Utilities | 6.2016| 0.6| 8/5
Communication Services | 2.9530| 0.5| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 2.6496| 0.3| 6/3
Real Estate | 1.2382| 0.2| 15/3
Health Care | 0.4809| 0.6| 3/1
Energy | -5.1030| -0.1| 21/18
Consumer Staples | -6.4792| -0.6| 3/7
Industrials | -14.3725| -0.4| 7/21
Information Technology | -72.5418| -2.5| 2/7
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 17.0300| 2.2| -27.8| 102.6
Bank of Montreal | 7.6520| 0.9| -27.6| 30.4
Wheaton Precious Metals | 7.2890| 1.5| -4.7| 87.9
Couche-Tard | -4.0140| -1.0| -27.2| -8.9
Constellation Software | -32.1800| -6.0| 161.8| -17.7
Shopify | -38.8600| -2.3| 20.8| 27.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher for the first time in four sessions Friday, albeit modestly, as Canada’s gross domestic product rebounded in July though momentum is seen at risk, while, BMO raised its year-end target for the exchange to 31,500 and earning per share (EPS) target to $1,650 and National Bank left its asset mix unchanged this month with the index having “performed exceptionally well” since June.
Buoyed by higher commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 29.3 points to 29,761.28 with most sectors higher, even if none were up by even as much as 0.6%. Info Tech was down 2%.
National Bank noted the Canadian economy rebounded in July, growing 0.2% after edging down 0.1% in June, marking a first increase to GDP in four months.
This was above consensus expectations for the month for a 0.1% lift.
National noted the Statistics Canada advance estimates suggest GDP was essentially flat in August, as gains in wholesale and retail trade were offset by declines in mining, manufacturing, and transportation.
Taken together with the July print, National said, growth is on track for only a modest expansion in the third quarter following a significant pullback in Q2.
“While July’s rebound offers some relief, the economy remains vulnerable, with business investment and hiring intentions still subdued.
The latest easing by the Bank of Canada will not be sufficient to reinvigorate the Canadian economy in the short term as the lack of visibility for businesses should continue to be a constraint on the economy.
We will have to wait until early November to assess the extent to which the federal government will be able to counterbalance the current headwinds,” National noted.
Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, noted in his latest ‘Canadian Strategy Snapshot’ the stock market recovery that “no one believed, was widely panned and even more loudly doubted” when BMO first published its view that Canada was entering a prolonged period of outperformance relative to the United States in mid-2024, has reached heights that “even we thought were lofty”.
Yes, Belski said, the TSX has eclipsed BMO’s base case of 28,500 in part to surprising economic strength and sustained gold momentum.
“However, MACRO does not lead — FUNDAMENTALS do,” he added.
Belski said that is why BMO has been prioritizing the “”improving and consistent fundamental conditions” of Canadian stocks with respect to earnings growth and revisions, operating performance, cash, and yes, themes within the bank’s Canadian strategy publications and actual equity portfolios that it oversees.
“After all,” he added, “the stock market is a market (for) stocks – and STOCKS are NOT the ECONOMY.”
“This fact has never been more prevalent in our view than the past two years in Canada.
To that end, we are raising our 2025 year end price target for the TSX to 31,500 from 28,500, which implies another 6% return in the final three months of the year.
Furthermore, we are raising our 2025 EPS target to 1,650 from 1,600 thanks to the broadening positive revision cycle that our models have shown over the last six months,” Belski said.
Belski added: “This now positions the TSX to exhibit low double digit earnings growth by the end of 2025, implying a higher earnings multiple that is likely to remain above the long term historical average.
After all, you pay for what is working — and Canadian equities are working.”
BMO still believes Canadian outperformance versus U.S. exchanges will moderate.
However, Belski said, Canada is well positioned to at least keep pace with the U.S. into year end and ultimately outperform on a year over year basis by one of the widest margins on record.
With its revised forecasts, BMO now expects the TSX to outperform the S&P 500 in local currency by over 8% on an annual basis this year, marking one of the strongest outperformances since 1990.
In fact, only in 1993, 1999, and 2005 were years when the TSX was up double digits and outperformed the S&P 500 by over 8%.
Meanwhile, National Bank in its Monthly Equity Monitor for September and October 2025 asked: Who would have thought that a so-called trade war would fuel a worldwide equity surge with no clear losers? “We certainly didn’t,” it said, but added it’s worth stressing that this isn’t a textbook trade war.
“So far,” National added, “there’s been little to no retaliation against Washington, meaning no escalation of inflation via second-round effects.”
National Bank noted the U.S. equity risk premium is now deeper in negative territory than at any point in a generation.
It said: “Resilient inflation and limited rate relief could pose risks to U.S. equities in the months ahead, particularly with valuations already stretched well above historical norms.
Strong corporate profits have so far helped justify these multiples, but margin pressures could build if cost inflation persists or if tariff retaliation materializes.”
The S&P/TSX, National Bank noted, broke new ground in September, climbing above 30,000 to a fresh record high, while year to date gains now exceed 20% after just three quarters, the strongest showing at this point in the year since 2009.
More specifically, National noted, this record performance has been powered by a 97% surge in gold stocks so far this year.
Thanks to this outsized gain, gold now accounts for just over 11% of the S&P/TSX market capitalization, the highest share since its 11.5% peak in 2012 and well above the historical average of 4.7% since the mid-1970s.
National Bank is leaving its asset mix unchanged this month after its last adjustment in June, when the bank modestly reduced its equity underweight by trimming fixed income and moving Canadian equities to overweight.
It said the S&P/TSX has performed exceptionally well since then, and valuations now sit above their historical norm.
“But there’s room for more if the November 4 budget delivers on Ottawa’s pro-business promises and if trade talks with Washington advance,” the bank added.
Of commodities, gold traded higher as a key U.S. inflation measure rose last month, but matched expectations, clearing the way for another interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month.
Gold for December delivery was seen up $38.00 to US$3,809.10 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate rose to the highest in nearly two months as traders focus on geopolitical risk with Ukraine expanding its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed up $0.74 to settle at $65.72 per barrel, the highest since Aug.4, while November Brent crude was up $0.52 to $69.94.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A renewed wave of dip buying lifted stocks in the final stretch of the week after a key inflation gauge matched expectation, giving the Federal Reserve some breathing room to address labor-market cooling.
Following a three-day slide, the S&P 500 rebounded.
The response to the data was fairly muted in the bond market, and swap traders continued to price in around 40 basis points of Fed cuts before the end of 2025.
The dollar fell.
A report Friday showed the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in August, compared with 0.3% in July.
On an annual basis, the core measure remained at 2.9% – above the Fed’s target.
“Despite another month of elevated inflation, today’s PCE report was in-line across the board,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“That gives investors some relief that the current status quo will remain intact, and that the Fed will remain on track to cut rates two more times this year.”
Kenwell also says that the Fed’s 2% inflation goal seems to be a “low priority” right now, with policymakers trying to restore balance between jobs and inflation.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to a cooling labor market to explain why officials lowered rates in September, while remaining vigilant on inflation.
“Inflation may not be reversing, but it’s not reaccelerating,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“Barring a major upside surprise from next week’s jobs report, the Fed should remain on course to deliver another rate cut in late October.”
Fed Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin told Bloomberg Television that while unemployment and inflation have both moved away from the goals, he sees only limited risk of further deterioration.
Despite a slide in consumer sentiment, Friday’s data also showed US personal spending rose by more than forecast — illustrating resilience.
“Today’s data reinforces yesterday’s ‘gee-the-economy-is- much-stronger-than-anyone-thought’ narrative, but at the same time, there’s less to worry about on the inflation front,” said Chris Low at FHN Financial.
Actions speak louder than words and consumers continue to spend, which is why corporate profits continue to exceed expectations, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“The bull market is going to continue as long as consumers remain employed and continue to spend, and corporations are able to adjust and adapt to the conditions on the ground,” he noted.
“Following a three-day pullback in the broader market, this is good enough to pull buyers off the sidelines,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“Today’s PCE calms some of those worries. No news is good news.”
While inflation likely gets the headline in today’s data, the income and spending numbers may be more important, according to Scott Helfstein at Global X.
“This likely sustains strong consumption and possibly leads to better than expected third-quarter growth,” he noted.
At Janus Henderson Investors, Greg Wilensky says continued strength in overall economic activity and a Fed that remains likely to lower rates will likely provide support for risk assets.
That’s despite valuations that, on the surface, appear expensive, he said.
The S&P 500’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio recently touched a high of 22.9, a level that this century was exceeded in just two prior instances: the dot-com bust and the pandemic rally in the summer of 2020 when the Fed reduced rates to near zero.
While cutting rates in non-recessionary environments tends to be good for US stocks, markets could use a bit of a breather as we enter the fourth quarter and as certain pockets of the market are seeing some euphoria, noted Kenwell at eToro.
“Should a pullback materialize in October, it could be the dip that refreshes the rally and gives investors a more attractive entry point into the market,” he said.
After one of the strongest stretches for equities since April, the S&P 500 is showing natural signs of fatigue, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide. Yet positioning and sentiment remain far from extreme, suggesting investors are more cautious than complacent.
“With fiscal stimulus, a potential dovish Fed shift, and a softer dollar all looming as catalysts, any near-term test of technical support should be seen less as a reversal and more as setting the stage for the next leg of the bull run,” he said.
Looking ahead, traders will be closely watching news regarding the funding stalemate in Congress.
President Donald Trump on Friday shrugged off the threat of the first US government shutdown in nearly seven years and moved to cast the blame for any disruption on Democrats.
In the event of a federal government shutdown, the September jobs report — due next Friday — will be delayed if the Department of Labor adheres to an operational contingency plan spelled out earlier this year.
“Government shutdowns tend to inject volatility but typically don’t have a lasting market impact,” wrote Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services.
The benchmark S&P 500 has barely moved on average during the last 20 shutdowns, according to Truist.
“The looming government shutdown may spark short-term volatility, although historically government shutdowns are not significant market-moving events as they tend to be averted last minute or resolved quickly,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.
As we wrap up September, stocks are defying their historical weakness, Bellin noted, “although that doesn’t mean that October will be smooth sailing, as October is a month with a volatile reputation.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. has developed a ChatGPT-like iPhone app to help test and prepare for a long-anticipated overhaul of Siri coming next year, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Electronic Arts Inc. is in talks to be taken private by a consortium led by Silver Lake Management and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, according to a person familiar with the matter.
* Intel Corp. and GlobalFoundries Inc. rallied after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration is weighing a new plan to reduce US reliance on chips made overseas.
* The $14 billion valuation that the Trump administration has estimated for TikTok’s US business falls well below projections, surprising investors who say a deal at that price would be a bargain for potential buyers including Larry Ellison’s Oracle Corp. and partner Silver Lake Management LLC.
* Meta Platforms Inc. will soon offer paid versions of Facebook and Instagram in the UK that will remove advertising from both platforms.
* Drugmakers rose as President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 100% tariff on branded and patented drug imports was greeted with a shrug by many investors — who are betting his exemptions for companies with US manufacturing will soften any blow.
* Shares of truck maker Paccar Inc. climbed as Trump announced new industry-specific tariffs that include a 25% levy on heavy trucks. Analysts say the company will benefit because it has significant US production.
* Trump on Friday intensified his campaign against Tylenol to include young kids, posting on his Truth Social that parents shouldn’t give children the drug “for virtually any reason.”
* Boeing Co. and the union representing striking defense workers have agreed to resume negotiations with a federal mediator in a bid to end a nearly eight-week work stoppage.
** Boeing will regain more powers from regulators to conduct final safety checks and issue airworthiness certificates for some 737 Max and 787 jets prior to delivery, easing restrictions put in place after a series of manufacturing lapses.
* Uber Technologies Inc. sees its grocery and retail deliveries growing faster than expected, underscoring the company’s effort to catch up with rival services from Instacart, DoorDash Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.
* PG&E Corp., which filed for bankruptcy in 2019 following devastating blazes, was upgraded to investment grade by Fitch Ratings after the California legislature boosted the size of a fire insurance fund.
* TeraWulf Inc. is expected to raise approximately $3 billion to support the build-out of its data centers via a structure supported by Google Inc., according to Patrick Fleury, the crypto miner’s finance chief.
* Switzerland’s government formally proposed giving UBS Group AG seven years to fully comply with higher capital requirements, confirming previous guidance.
* BMW AG is recalling at least 331,000 vehicles globally due to a defect in its starter motor, another such setback for the German carmaker that’s been hit by costly product flaws
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The latest data batch confirms that US consumers are taking labor-market headwinds in stride for now. That clears the path for stocks to push higher into year-end.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1706
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3408
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 149.50 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin was little changed at $109,200.89
* Ether rose 3.5% to $4,023.12
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.18%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.75%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.75%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.64%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.76%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $65.30 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,766.29 an ounce

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The role of a leader is to define reality and give hope. -Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

September 25, 1493: Christopher Columbus set sail from Cadiz, Spain, with a flotilla of 17 ships on his second voyage to the Western Hemisphere.
September 25, 1676: Greenwich Mean Time established.
September 25, 1905: Albert Einstein publishes his paper on special relativity, a breakthrough that redefined physics and altered humanity’s understanding of space and time.

William Faulkner, novelist, b. 1897.
Dmitri  Shostakovich, composer, b. 1906.
Will Smiht, actor, b. 1968.
Catherine Zeta-Jones, actress, b. 1969.

The James Webb telescope may have discovered a brand new class of cosmic object: the black hole star

Using the James Webb Space Telescope, astronomers discovered an extreme version of “little red dots” dubbed “The Cliff.” Its light suggests that it could be a never-before-seen class of objects called a “black hole star.” Read More.

5,000-year-old stone tomb discovered in Spain is 43 feet long — and it holds many prehistoric burials

A large, 5,000-year-old dolmen has been discovered by archaeologists in southern Spain. Read More.

Scientists discover 85 ‘active’ lakes buried beneath Antarctica’s ice

Data from ESA’s Cryosat-2 satellite has revealed 85 never-before-seen, active subglacial lakes buried beneath Antarctica’s ice — 58% more than were previously known. Read More.

Abandoning daylight saving time could prevent over 300,000 stroke cases a year in the US, study claims

Springing forward by an hour each March knocks the circadian rhythm out of alignment. A new model of the chronic health impacts argues for scrapping it entirely. Read More.

In ‘Secrets of the Brain,’ Jim Al-Khalili explores 600 million years of brain evolution to understand what makes us human

In his new BBC show, Jim Al-Khalili journeys through hundreds of millions of years of brain evolution. Live Science spoke to him about what he learned along the way and how this knowledge sheds new light on human cognition. Read More.

Kamala Harris kicks off book tour in New York City
Former Vice President Kamala Harris began her book tour on Wednesday, with both supporters and protesters in attendance.

‘World’s coolest’ neighborhoods named by Time Out
Coming in at number one is Jimbōchō, a corner of Tokyo known for its array of vintage bookstores. See the full list of the “world’s coolest” neighborhoods.

What it’s like to visit Babylon in 2025
Babylon was once an ancient wonder. Today, it’s a very different story.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Hitomi Tsuchiya, Japan – Fine art finalist
A turtle swims through an underwater aurora. “This image was taken near Mount Iwo, where the underwater aurora can be seen,” says Tsuchiya. “The volcano spews out iron-rich substances from above ground and from the ocean floor, creating these colours”

Alex Dawson, Mexico – Ocean adventure, third place
Divers explore the unique Yab Yum cave. Close to 100 metres in diameter and more than 70 metres deep, it is considered the largest water-filled sinkhole that has ever been documented

Wreath flowers (Lechenaultia macrantha)
The 2025 Bowness photography prize – in pictures
These are quite rare wildflowers that bloom in a circular pattern on the ground. This plant was shot in Pindar
Market Closes for September 25^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45947.32	-173.96
		-0.38%
S&P 500	6604.72	-33.25
		-0.50%
NASDAQ	22384.70	-113.16
		-0.50%
TSX	29731.98	-24.97
		-0.08%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45754.93	+124.62
		+0.27%
HANG SENG	26484.68	-33.97
		-0.13%
SENSEX	81159.68	-555.95
		-0.68%
FTSE 100*	9213.98	-36.45
		-0.39%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.224	3.204
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.671	3.674
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1698	4.1466
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7477	4.7507

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7173	0.7196
US $	1.3941	1.3896

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6263	0.6148
US $	1.1667	0.8571

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3761.60	3783.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	65.71	65.49

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1955, President Dwight D. Eisenhower suffered a heart attack and the stock market plunged by 6.6%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 29,731.98 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.3%.
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. had the largest drop, falling 15.5%.
Today, 98 of 213 shares fell, while 112 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 20%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 11%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.1%
* So far this week, the index was little changed, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Aug. 1
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.1% below its 52-week high on Sept. 23, 2025 and 33.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 5.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 18.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.76t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.06% compared with 7.16% in the previous session and the average of 8.73% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | -95.1080| -3.1| 2/7
Financials | -9.7448| -0.1| 8/15
Consumer Staples | -6.1018| -0.6| 2/8
Real Estate | -2.8606| -0.6| 4/14
Health Care | -0.2600| -0.3| 2/2
Communication Services | 1.1091| 0.2| 4/1
Consumer Discretionary | 1.9346| 0.2| 4/5
Utilities | 4.8539| 0.5| 10/4
Industrials | 6.9426| 0.2| 16/13
Energy | 20.6136| 0.4| 27/12
Materials | 53.6676| 1.1| 33/17
Shopify | -58.6200| -3.3| -12.3| 30.7
Constellation Software | -34.2400| -6.0| 176.1| -12.5
Brookfield Corp | -14.6600| -1.5| -2.4| 15.5
Cameco | 12.1600| 3.5| 3.8| 61.6
Barrick Mining | 13.2200| 2.4| 7.2| 114.5
TD Bank | 16.4100| 1.3| -9.7| 43.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for a third day on Thursday moving off its recent trend of regular record highs, on profit taking and as the attention of market watchers appears to be drifting back to economic concerns, with National Bank not expecting hiring to meaningfully pick up this year, which will only add to labor market slack.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 24.97 points to 29,731.98, even as most sectors were higher.
It added to a total of more than 200 points lost over the prior two sessions.
The index has dropped from Monday’s record close of 29,958.98, and from an intraday high above the 30,000-level touched on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Among sectors, the Battery Metals Index was up 3.6% and Base Metals up near 1%.
In contrast, Info Tech was down 2.5% and Health Care down 1.3%.
Taylor Schleich, National Bank’s Director, Economics and Strategy, said the most insightful component of the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) released earlier today is not overall employment, given how backward looking it is.
Instead, National Bank focuses on job vacancies as they offer a read on labor demand and what hiring may look like in the future.
“Today’s data are not inspiring,” he said, noting vacant positions fell in July and are now down 12% from the end of 2024.
The vacancy rate, or the ratio of open jobs to total labor supply, fell to 2.6% versus 3.1% a year ago and 5.6% back in 2022.
“Note that this recent deterioration is more pronounced than in the U.S. where, despite the Fed’s worries, labour demand is near pre-COVID levels,” Schleich added.
Looked at another way, Schleich noted there were 3.3 unemployed Canadians fighting for each vacant position in July.
Outside of COVID, he said, “things haven’t looked this dire since early 2017”, when the national jobless rate was also around 7%.
According to Schleich, the key difference is that back then, the labor market was improving.
Today, it’s moving in the opposite direction.
Also, monetary policy looked a lot different then too.
In 2016, the BoC was fostering growth with a “very” accommodative policy rate (0.5%) while today, policy is more or less neutral.
“Suffice it to say,” Schleich said, “we’re not expecting hiring to meaningfully pick up this year which will only add to labour market slack.
And while the BoC had previously contended that labour market weakness is concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, that’s not really backed up by these data.
Goods producing (i.e, tariff-exposed) industries have seen vacancies dry up more (-18% Y/Y) but a 14% Y/Y drop in services sector openings doesn’t warrant the ‘resilient’ label that some had earlier applied to Canada.”
Schleich added: “When it comes to monetary policy, markets are pricing further easing which is warranted.
However, the next cut isn’t fully priced until January which is too late in our view.
We see higher odds of an October cut, and the likelihood of even more rate relief being needed is growing.”
Elsewhere, Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Market, noted Quebec’s economy contracted 2.4% annualized in Q2, which is weaker than the 1.6% decline seen nationally.
He said this is no major surprise given that Quebec was always going to get hit relatively hard by U.S. tariffs, notably through exposure to steel and aluminum.
Kavcic added: “While we had already built a very tough Q2 into our 2025 outlook, there is some further downside risk to our call of just 0.7% growth in 2025.
That would leave Quebec at the weak end of the provincial growth table this year.”
Of commodities, gold had edged higher late midafternoon on Thursday, rising off a day-prior drop even as the dollar and treasury yields rose after U.S. initial jobless claims slowed last week and second-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised higher. Gold for December delivery was last seen up $9.30 to US$3,777.40 per ounce, after falling off a record US$3,815.70 set on Tuesday.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a minor drop as traders took profits after prices rose to a three-week high amid Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil industry and an unexpected drop in the U.S. inventories last week.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $0.01 to $64.99 per barrel, edging down from the highest since Sept. 2, while November Brent crude was up $0.06 to $69.37.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell as valuation worries overshadowed data showing the economy is holding up.
The figures didn’t have much of an impact on Federal Reserve bets, but short-dated yields climbed.
Bitcoin sank.
Following a series of all-time highs, the S&P 500 dropped for a third straight session, the longest slide in a month.
That’s despite data showing US gross domestic product grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years.
“We agree that the economy is strong and growing,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, “but a lot of that good news is already priced in.
Where we have our largest concern is with valuations.”
An over $15 trillion surge in equities from this year’s lows came on speculation that the economy is not sinking and the market will be bolstered by improving corporate profits and the artificial-intelligence boom.
As a result, the S&P 500’s 12-month forward price-to- earnings ratio recently touched a high of 22.9, a level that this century was exceeded in just two prior instances: the dot- com bust and the pandemic rally in the summer of 2020 when the Fed reduced rates to near zero.
While the central bank’s focus has tilted toward the jobs market, traders will be closely watching Friday’s inflation report.
“Active investors will want to see an in-line or lower inflation result, keeping the Fed on pace for two more rate cuts in 2025,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“As much as investors want lower rates, a solid economy is more important.”
The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, with most major groups down.
Two- year yields climbed six basis points to 3.66%.
The dollar rose.
The crypto slump intensified ahead of a $22 billion options expiry.
Inflation-adjusted GDP, which measures the value of goods and services produced in the US, increased at a revised 3.8% annualized pace.
That was stronger than the previously reported 3.3% advance and followed an outright contraction in the first quarter.
To Paul Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management, Thursday’s GDP strength likely doesn’t change the Fed’s expected path of rate cuts, “since the data is backward looking.”
In fact, money markets only slightly reduced bets on rate cuts after the data, projecting about 40 basis points of Fed reductions before the year is over.
The decline in initial jobless claims to the lowest since July points to a labor market that — while cooling — has seen relatively limited layoffs.
Most companies are choosing to hold onto workers even as lingering economic uncertainty keeps a lid on hiring.
“There may be cracks in the labor market, but if today’s data is any indication, they haven’t widened recently,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“Along with an upward revision to GDP, we’re seeing an economy that remains resilient despite an array of challenges.”
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the US central bank risks damage to the economy by not moving rapidly to lower interest rates.
“I don’t think the economy is about to crater,” Miran said Thursday on Bloomberg Surveillance.
But given the risks, “I would rather act proactively and lower rates as a result ahead of time, rather than wait for some giant catastrophe to occur,” he said.
The Fed led by Chair Jerome Powell lowered rates last week by a quarter percentage point, the first cut of 2025.
Miran dissented against the decision, favoring a half-point cut.
Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s top bank cop, said inflation is close enough to the central bank’s target to justify more rate cuts because the job market is weakening.
Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee expressed continued concern about tariff-driven inflation and pushed back against any call for “front-loading” multiple rate cuts.
His Kansas City counterpart Jeff Schmid signaled the central bank may not need to cut again soon.
Fed Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the US central bank should abandon the federal funds rate as its benchmark in implementing monetary policy, and consider an overnight rate tied to the more robust market for loans collateralized by US Treasuries.
Citadel’s Ken Griffin told CNBC he expects the Fed to cut its benchmark rate once more in 2025 as the central bank turns its focus to the labor market.
The Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation likely grew at a slower pace last month, offering policymakers some breathing room to address jobs cooling.
A report on Friday is forecast to show the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in August, compared with 0.3% in July.
On an annual basis, the so-called core measure is seen holding at a still- elevated 2.9%.
“If we were to see an uptick, that could worry investors that the Fed’s rate cut expectations are too ambitious, and that they may need to establish more of a wait-and-see approach on rates,” said Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management.
The market is on tenterhooks waiting for the Fed’s next rate move, a crucial earnings season looms large, and the threat of a US government shutdown is growing more severe.
Add the specter of rising volatility to a list of worries investors need to contend with.
Since 1928, historical price swings in the S&P 500 in October have been about 20% greater than in other months, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s derivatives team says.
“Are stocks ready for a breather, or dare we say, some selling pressure? The short answer is yes,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“Investors should expect that some form of a breather or downturn in the market will come at some point.”
Meantime, Bespoke Investment Group noted that while the last few days have started to show some cracks in the market, sentiment was little changed based on the weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors.
Bullish sentiment remained unchanged at 41.7% while bearish sentiment dropped to 39.2% and neutral sentiment increased to 19.1%, the AAII tally showed.
The impending earnings season may get things moving.
Corporate chief financial officers’ optimism about the economy and their own company’s financial health rose in the third quarter, according to the latest CFO Survey.
‘Solid Footing’
Meantime, Barclays strategists said there’s limited risk to S&P 500 earnings related to disappointments over artificial- intelligence spending, with the AI investment theme “on solid footing.”
To Saglimbene at Ameriprise, fundamental dynamics heading into the fourth quarter, including the rate environment, appear stable and supportive of current stock levels.
He also believes profit conditions across S&P 500 companies remain favorable and durable.
“But expectations are high, and valuations largely reflect much of the ‘good news’ narrative today.
Thus, investors should be prepared for a few potential bumps in the road at some point,” Saglimbene said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Oracle Corp., Silver Lake Management LLC, and the Abu Dhabi- based investment company MGX are in talks to invest in a US version of TikTok and receive board seats in the new venture, according to people familiar with the discussions.
* Amazon.com Inc. agreed to pay $2.5 billion in penalties and refunds and change its process for how to cancel its Prime subscription to settle a lawsuit by the US Federal Trade Commission.
* Microsoft Corp. disabled some use of its software by the Israeli military after an investigation spurred by news reports that the company’s products were involved in the surveillance of civilians.
* Apple Inc. has asked European Union antitrust watchdogs to scrap regulations intended to protect digital consumers, arguing they expose users to privacy risks and threaten to undermine innovation.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is set to face a charge sheet from the European Union for failing to adequately police illegal content, risking fines for violating the bloc’s content moderation rulebook.
* Alphabet Inc. trails behind a few other megacap technology companies in size, but the Google parent may be destined to overtake them given its strong position in artificial intelligence and other key sectors, according to MoffettNathanson.
* Intel Corp. was upgraded to neutral from sell at Seaport Global, which sees near-term upside for the chipmaker if it receives more direct investments.
* Starbucks Corp. said it will close stores and eliminate 900 jobs in a $1 billion restructuring effort as the company amps up a turnaround plan under new Chief Executive Officer Brian Niccol.
* Eli Lilly & Co. halted a study of an experimental drug designed to prevent obesity patients from losing too much muscle, citing strategic business reasons it didn’t disclose.
* CarMax Inc.’s weaker-than-expected results showed deepening strain in the used-car market.
* CoreWeave Inc. has expanded its agreements to supply data center capacity to OpenAI by as much as $6.5 billion to $22.4 billion, the latest deal to underscore the immense demand for AI computing power.
* Two casino bids — MGM Resorts International’s proposal for a $2.3 billion expansion of its Empire City Casino in Yonkers, New York, and Genting Group’s pitch for a $5.5 billion addition to its Queens location — will advance to a state board after clearing a key vote by local advisory committees.
* Live Nation Entertainment Inc.’s Ticketmaster agreed to make certain changes to its ticketing business following the UK’s antitrust watchdog concerns that it risked misleading customers in last year’s sale of Oasis tickets.
* The Qatar Investment Authority is partnering with Blue Owl Capital Inc. to finance and invest in data centers, marking the sovereign wealth fund’s latest bet on the booming artificial intelligence sector.
* BP Plc said that oil demand is going to keep growing for the rest of this decade, rowing back on its prior projection that the high point could come as soon as this year.
* SAP SE has been hit by a European Union antitrust probe into whether the German software giant distorted competition for on- premise maintenance and support services related to a management program it sells.
* Accenture Plc said it expects US federal spending cuts on consultants to slow its growth next year after it beat expectations for revenue in the fourth quarter.
* Robert Bosch GmbH will cut about 13,000 additional jobs at its auto-parts business as rising competition and a sluggish European car market push the manufacturer into deeper restructuring.
* Brunello Cucinelli SpA tumbled after short seller Morpheus Research alleged the luxury Italian cashmere brand is misleading investors about its Russian business and engaging in “aggressive discounting.”
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The two-week decline in jobless claims stands to ease jitters about the labor market at a time when the Fed has already jumped to the rescue with an interest-rate cut. That further reinforces the idea that the central bank is easing into a soft landing, which historically benefits stocks and the dollar, but stands to hurt bonds.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $1.1661
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.3337
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 149.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.7% to $109,392.29
* Ether fell 6.1% to $3,913.1
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.17%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.77%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.76%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.66%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.75%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $65.30 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,746.59 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Let yourself be silently drawn by the stronger pull of what you truly love. –Rumi, 1207-1273.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com