Category: Events

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!
Carolann is away from the office; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

December 20, 1790: 1st successful US cotton mill begins spinning yarn in Pawtucket, Rhode Island built by Samuel Slater based on Richard Arkwright‘s design

December 20, 1879: Thomas Edison privately demonstrated incandescent light at Menlo Park. Go to article

188 medieval figurines that held Christian saints’ bones unearthed in Berlin’s oldest town square
Archaeologists have found 188 medieval reliquaries during excavations at a square in Berlin. Some of them still contain human bones of people considered to be saints or holy.

Meteor strikes on the moon! Astronomer captures possible Geminid lunar impacts
A Japanese astronomer captured several impacts on the moon during the Geminid meteor shower.

Ancient Assyrian capital that’s been abandoned for 2,700 years revealed in new magnetic survey
A new magnetic survey of the ancient Assyrian capital of Khorsabad has revealed several structures, including a villa, buried underground.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Egrets rest among solar panels in Jiangsu, eastern China
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

An elephant inspects a bus in Kataragama, Sri Lanka
Photograph: Ishara S Kodikara/AFP/Getty Images

Guests stand in the reception of the Parisian hotel resort which is decorated with a replica of The Coronation of Napoleon
Photograph: Eduardo Leal
Market Closes for December 20, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42840.26	+498.02
		+1.18%
S&P 500	5930.85	+63.77
		+1.09%
NASDAQ	19572.60	+199.83
		+1.03%
TSX	24599.48	+185.54
		+0.76 %

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38701.90	-111.68
		-0.29%
HANG SENG	19720.70	-31.81
		-0.16%
SENSEX	78041.59	-1176.46
		-1.49%
FTSE 100*	8084.61	-20.71
		-0.26%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.278	3.346
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.343	3.391
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5222	4.5621
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7204	4.7355

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6957	0.6941
US $	1.4374	1.4407

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4991	0.6671
US $	1.0429	0.9588

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2592.45	2592.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.06	70.58

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1994, Mexico plunged into financial crisis after announcing a shock devaluation of the peso. The currency lost 40% of its value over the next six weeks, spurring a deep recession.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.8% at 24,599.48 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.4% on Nov. 21 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.6%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
BlackBerry Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 23.1%.
Today, 165 of 219 shares rose, while 50 fell; all sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 17%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 2.5%
* This month, the index fell 4.1%
* So far this week, the index fell 2.7%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Sept. 22
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.8% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 20.2% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 on a trailing basis and 17 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.85t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.38% compared with 10.11% in the previous session and the average of 8.59% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 44.3779| 0.5| 18/8
Materials | 35.4787| 1.3| 39/9
Information Technology | 35.2927| 1.4| 10/0
Industrials | 19.7660| 0.6| 20/7
Energy | 18.2220| 0.4| 26/15
Utilities | 9.2320| 1.0| 14/1
Consumer Discretionary | 9.0530| 1.1| 9/2
Real Estate | 7.2692| 1.5| 19/0
Consumer Staples | 3.3069| 0.3| 2/7
Communication Services | 2.1804| 0.4| 4/1
Health Care | 1.3526| 1.9| 4/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 22.3200| 1.7| 170.3| 51.9
Enbridge | 13.2800| 1.5| 111.8| 24.6
RBC | 10.8100| 0.6| 201.7| 29.4
Suncor | -1.8710| -0.4| 1.3| 16.8
Cameco | -1.9530| -0.8| 127.1| 32.1
TFI International | -3.1060| -2.7| 176.5| 10.4
US
By Rheaa Rao and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — Major US stock indexes saw their worst week since mid-November after the Federal Reserve’s decision to be more cautious about cutting interest rates next year roiled markets.
Treasuries sold off for a second consecutive week.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rose on Friday — paring what would have been a steeper weekly selloff — after fresh data calmed anxieties about inflation.
Bloomberg’s dollar gauge saw its worst drop this month, but was still higher for the third straight week.
While Treasury yields are lower across the curve on Friday, the 10-year rate has climbed more than 10 basis points this week.
The Fed shook markets on Wednesday when it scaled back the number of cuts it anticipates in 2025.
A relentless stream of data showing how strong the economy is only validated the central bank’s view.
With Fed Chair Jerome Powell focused on inflation progress, the muted personal consumption expenditures data for November that released Friday likely reassured policymakers — and investors — that the economy is cooling despite being robust.
“I don’t know why we always have to be reminded that the Fed not cutting rates — or not cutting rates as fast — is actually good news if it’s driven by stronger economic data, and that’s exactly what the Fed is telling us,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, said in an interview, adding that the selloff after the Fed meeting was a “major overreaction.”
The Fed is now likely to wait and see how tariff and immigration policies unfold over the next coming months before implementing another cut, said Olu Sonola, Fitch Ratings’ head of US economic research.
With the central bank facing these policy uncertainties from the incoming administration, odds still favor a pause on rate cuts in January, said Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing, E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
Concerns also grew about a looming US government shutdown.
House Republicans said they will vote Friday on funding to keep the government open through March 14, provide disaster relief and give billions of dollars in economic aid to farmers.
“The real problem is the shutdown, one wasn’t expecting this, it’s a surprise for the market, just as the Fed was a surprise,” said Jeanne Asseraf-Bitton, head of research and strategy at BFT IM in Paris.
“All in all this week is a difficult one.”
Meanwhile, US consumer sentiment rose for a fifth month in December.
The sentiment index continues to reflect an improving outlook among Republicans after November’s election, while Democrats grow more downbeat.
Friday’s US options expiration, which has historically stoked turbulence, offered a final hurdle to end-of-year calm.
The quarterly “triple-witching” saw some $6.5 trillion worth of options tied to individual stocks, indexes and exchange-traded funds fall off the board, this year’s largest, according to an estimate from derivatives analytical firm Asym 500.
Elsewhere, Brazilian markets bounced at the end of the week amid extraordinary central bank moves to curb a selloff in the currency.
The real was among the best performers in emerging markets Friday.
In the UK, long-term government borrowing costs are approaching the highest level since 1998 as investors struggle to work out how much the Bank of England will cut interest rates next year.
In just one week, the market went from wagering on the possibility of four interest rate cuts next year to fewer than two, and then back to entertaining the chance of three.
In Asia, China’s one-year bond yield slumped to 1% for the first time since the global financial crisis, as traders ramped up bets on monetary easing.
The yen trimmed weekly losses after Japan’s key inflation gauge strengthened for the first time in three months and Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned against currency speculation.
Crude posted a weekly loss as traders mulled the Fed’s hawkish pivot and and President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on EU countries unless they buy more US oil and gas.

Some of the main moves in markets
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4:14 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.6% to $1.0428
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.2575
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 156.32 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2% to $95,420.2
* Ether fell 0.7% to $3,393.53
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.53%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.29%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.51%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $69.51 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.2% to $2,623.86 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Margaryta Kirakosian, John Viljoen, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Emily Graffeo, Julien Ponthus and Andre Janse van Vuuren.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” Enthusiasm is the most important thing in life.”– Tennessee Williams

Shab Mohammadpour

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve!
Carolann is away from the office; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

December 19, 1783: William Pitt the Younger becomes the youngest ever British Prime Minister at age 24
December 19, 1958: First radio broadcast from space, US President Dwight D. Eisenhower sends a Christmas message “to all mankind, America’s wish for peace on Earth and goodwill to men everywhere”
December 19, 1984 (40 years ago today) Britain and China signed an accord returning Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty in 1997. Go to article
December 19, 1988: NASA unveils plans for lunar colony & manned missions to Mars.

NASA commander Suni Williams meets tentacled Astrobee robot on ISS
The robot’s flexible arms are a technology demonstration that could one day aid in satellite maintenance and space debris management.

Rare army general and chariot unearthed among China’s Terracotta Warriors
The life-size clay figurines offer new insights into the organization and structure of China’s army 2,000 years ago.

‘Truly extraordinary’ ancient offerings, including statues of snakes and a child priest, found submerged in ‘healing’ spring in Italy
Archaeologists in Italy have dug down deeper into a hot spring that was used, over two millennia ago, by a people known as the Etruscans as a sacred place to leave their votive offerings. Read more.

‘Alien plant’ fossil discovered near Utah ghost town doesn’t belong to any known plant families, living or extinct
Fossilized plant remains discovered near a Utah ghost town have stumped scientists, who are unable to link them to any modern or extinct plants. Read more.

James Webb telescope uncovers massive ‘grand design’ spiral galaxy in the early universe — and scientists can’t explain how it got so big, so fast
Galaxies in the early universe tend to be clumpy, but the new JWST discovery of a “grand design” spiral galaxy just 1.5 billion years after the Big Bang has scientists stumped. Read more.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kent, UK
The Folkestone White Horse gets a makeover inspired by Rudolph the red-nosed reindeer
Photograph: Chris J Ratcliffe/Reuters

Hawaii, US
Canada’s Erin Brooks competes to win the women’s Vans 2024 Pipe Masters on Oahu’s north shore
Photograph: Brian Bielmann/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Harbin, China
Ice and Snow World prepares to open to tourists in Heilongjiang province
Photograph: Weitao Tian/Getty Images
Market Closes for December 19, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42342.24	+15.37
		+0.04%
S&P 500	5867.08	-5.08
		-09%
NASDAQ	19372.77	-19.92
		-0.10%
TSX	24413.94	-143.06
		-0.58 %

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38813.58	-268.13
		-0.69%
HANG SENG	19752.51	-112.04
		-0.56%
SENSEX	79218.05	-964.15
		-1.20%
FTSE 100*	8105.32	-93.79
		-1.14%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.346	3.224
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.391	3.271
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5621	4.5140
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7355	4.6753

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6941	0.6919
US $	1.4407	1.4452

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4935	0.6696
US $	1.0366	0.9647

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2592.45	2636.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.58	70.08

Market Commentary:
🚂 On this day in 1868: Cornelius Vanderbilt bought additional shares of the New York Central Railroad. He then convened an emergency meeting of the board of directors, which declared an 80% dividend. The stock shot up over the next two days, at which point Vanderbilt dumped his new shares for a $5.5 million profit.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the sixth day, dropping 0.6%, or 143.06 to 24,413.94 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Nov. 5.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.7%.
Cargojet Inc. had the largest drop, falling 4.5%.
Today, 149 of 219 shares fell, while 66 rose; all sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 16%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 1.7%
* So far this week, the index fell 3.4%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Sept. 22
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.5% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 19.3% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 3.9% in the past 5 days and fell 2.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 on a trailing basis and 16.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.87t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.11% compared with 10.01% in the previous session and the average of 8.50% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -39.6081| -1.6| 3/7
Industrials | -37.0873| -1.2| 6/20
Materials | -24.1725| -0.9| 12/36
Financials | -11.9918| -0.1| 13/13
Energy | -8.7500| -0.2| 19/22
Communication Services | -7.8981| -1.3| 0/5
Real Estate | -7.1787| -1.5| 2/18
Consumer Discretionary | -4.0495| -0.5| 3/8
Consumer Staples | -1.3916| -0.1| 4/5
Health Care | -0.6460| -0.9| 1/3
Utilities | -0.2775| 0.0| 3/12
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -36.2400| -2.7| 13.0| 49.4
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -20.8000| -3.0| 10.8| -2.5
TD Bank | -7.3470| -0.8| -11.6| -13.3
CGI Inc | 3.4860| 1.6| 45.4| 10.6
Bank of Montreal | 4.0400| 0.6| -37.7| 6.1
Manulife Financial | 5.3610| 1.0| -12.3| 48.0
US
By Rheaa Rao and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — US stocks ended a choppy session with modest losses, struggling to rebound from the selloff they suffered after the Federal Reserve dialed back rate-cut expectations for next year.
The S&P 500 gave up earlier gains to end the day little changed.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.5% after oscillating between small advances and declines for most of the session.
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.57%, a level last seen in May.
A Bloomberg dollar index continued to hover around 2022 highs.
The yen remained lower after the Bank of Japan left borrowing costs unchanged earlier.
Mexico’s peso shrugged off losses after the country’s central bank delivered a fourth consecutive rate cut.
The US economy remains resilient, as data on Thursday continued to prove.
Notably, one of the Fed’s preferred gauges of inflation was revised up to 2.2%.
Given that Chair Jerome Powell said future easing would require fresh progress on inflation, markets will now be closely watching the last noteworthy piece of data for the year — personal consumption expenditures for November — due Friday.
For now, investors are being defensive, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.
“They’re not jumping back into the market with both feet,” he said. “So, if we don’t get some relief from the bond market soon, there might not be a Santa Claus rally this year.”
Markets were jolted after the Fed scaled back the number of cuts it anticipates in 2025 to two.
The so-called hawkish pivot was likely what the central bank had planned for next year before the meeting, according to Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha.
Powell said on Wednesday that some policymakers had begun to weave into their forecasts the potential impact of higher tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump may implement.
“To a large degree the Fed decided to pad its forecast and pre-position for Trump – pulling forward much of what would otherwise have been a hawkish update in March,” Guha wrote in a note.
That makes the Fed’s pronouncement of a new phase of policy “hawkish absolutely, but not as hawkish as it looked,” Guha wrote.
He’s expecting the US central bank to skip a rate cut in January unless cracks appear in the labor market.
The swaps market is now implying fewer than two quarter-point reductions for the entirety of 2025, even less than what was implied in the Fed’s so-called dot plot on Wednesday.
Traders also parsed gross domestic product numbers on Thursday.
The data showed that the US economy expanded at a faster clip in the third quarter than previously expected.
Consumer spending was also marked up.
Applications for US unemployment benefits fell last week amid volatility seen during the holiday season. Existing-home sales in the US topped a rate of 4 million in November for the first time in six months.

US Corporate Highlights
* Shares of FedEx Corp. rose more than 10% postmarket after the firm said in plans to spin off its freight division into a separate publicly traded company. It also reported earnings.
* Nike Inc. reported sales that surpassed analysts’ expectations, giving new Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill a positive development to tout during his first earnings call. Shares jumped in extended trading.
* United States Steel Corp. warned its fourth-quarter earnings will be lower than anticipated as steel prices remain depressed in the US and as the demand environment in Europe is weak. Shares declined in after-hours trading.
* Bankrupt retailer Big Lots Inc. no longer anticipates it can complete its asset sale to private equity firm Nexus Capital Management LP, and will commence the sale of its stores in coming days.

Beyond the US
Earlier, the Bank of England kept borrowing costs unchanged at 4.75%.
Still, money markets now see two quarter-point reductions and a strong chance of a third in 2025 after three of the nine-member policy committee called for a cut at Thursday’s meeting.
Swap traders had priced in less than two reductions next year prior to the announcement.
The pound declined.
The yen weakened after comments by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda cast doubt on whether the bank could hike interest rates in January.
In China, authorities ramped up support for the currency via its daily reference rate after the Fed’s caution over future rate cuts sent the offshore yuan to a fresh one-year low.
In commodities, oil fell by almost 1% after the Fed’s outlook for next year boosted the dollar.

Key events this week:
* Japan CPI, Friday
* China loan prime rates, Friday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday
* US personal income, spending & PCE inflation, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4:07 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0367
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.2503
* The Japanese yen fell 1.7% to 157.38 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 4.4% to $96,504.7
* Ether fell 8.2% to $3,388.84
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.57%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.31%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.58%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $69.91 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,596.85 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Cristin Flanagan and Andre Janse van Vuuren.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
“How very little can be done under the spirit of fear.”– Florence Nightingale

Shab Mohammadpour

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
December 18,1865: The United States /Congress formally adopts the 13^th Amendment, abolishing slavery throughout America.  This watershed moment transforms American society and establishes fundamental human rights in law.

On Dec. 18, 1957, the Shipping port Atomic Power Station in Pennsylvania, the first civilian nuclear facility to generate electricity in the United States, went online.  Go to article

Antonio Stradivari, violin maker, b.1737.
Paul Klee, artist, b. 1879.
Stephen Spielberg, filmmaker, b. 1947.
Brad Pitt, actor, b. 1964.
Katie Holmes, actress, b. 1978.
Christina Aguilera, singer, b. 1980

A small glass of wine each day might be good for the heart, study finds
But slow your pour … Many medical experts don’t have grape feelings about daily wine consumption.

Prince Harry and Meghan share photo of their children on Christmas card
This year marks the first time since 2021 that Prince Harry and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex have released a Christmas card featuring their children, whose privacy they fiercely guard.

‘Bluey: The Movie’ is coming
A movie based on the popular children’s animated series “Bluey” is headed to theaters. Here’s what we know about the project.

Tom Cruise becomes a military hero in real life
After years of playing military heroes on screen, Tom Cruise is now one in real life. The “Top Gun” star was awarded the US Navy’s highest honor that a person outside of the Department of the Navy can receive.

Milwaukee Bucks win NBA Cup title
The Milwaukee Bucks won the second annual NBA Cup after stifling the Oklahoma City Thunder 97-81 in Las Vegas on Tuesday. Star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo was named MVP.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Stourhead, UK
Visitors walk under illuminated feathers, part of the Christmas at Stourhead seasonal lights trail
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

Prague, Czech Republic
People watch as Jan Tater lights one of the historic gas lamps on the city’s Charles Bridge. During Advent all 46 lanterns are manually lit daily, a tradition started in 1847
Photograph: Martin Divíšek/EPA

Soham, UK
A Christmas lights display at the home of Helen and John Attlesey in Cambridgeshire, who decorate their house every year to raise money for three charities that supported their grandson Jacob, who was diagnosed with epilepsy
Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA
Market Closes for December 18, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	42326.87	-1123.03
		-2.58%
S&P 500	5872.16	-178.45
		-2.95%
NASDAQ	19392.70	-716.36
		-3.56%
TSX	24557.00	-562.71
		-2.24 %

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39081.71	-282.97
		-0.72%
HANG SENG	19864.55	+164.07
		+0.83%
SENSEX	80684.45	-1064.12
		-1.30%
FTSE 100*	8199.11	+3.91
		+0.05%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.224	3.142
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.271	3.223
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5140	4.3888
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6753	4.5808

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6919	0.7023
US $	1.4452	1.4239

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4980	0.6675
US $	1.0366	0.9647

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2636.35	2659.05
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.08	71.29

Market Commentary:

📈 On this day in 1899, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 8.7%, on news of heavy casualties in the war against rebels in the Philippines. Canada By Bloomberg Automation (Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fifth day, dropping 2.2%, or 562.71 to 24,557.00 in Toronto. The move was the biggest since falling 2.3% on Feb. 13. Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as all sectors lost; 204 of 219 shares fell, while 14 rose. Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 7.3%. Insights * In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss once * This year, the index rose 17%, poised for the best year since 2021 * This quarter, the index rose 2.3% * The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period * The S&P/TSX Composite is 5% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 20% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024 * The S&P/TSX Composite is down 4.3% in the past 5 days and fell 1.7% in the past 30 days * S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year * The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis * S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.96t * 30-day price volatility rose to 10.01% compared with 7.65% in the previous session and the average of 8.43% over the past month ================================================================ | Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec ================================================================ Financials | -164.8485| -2.0| 2/24 Information Technology| -150.7941| -5.6| 0/10 Materials | -100.6453| -3.5| 2/48 Energy | -71.1260| -1.7| 0/41 Industrials | -18.6779| -0.6| 5/22 Utilities | -17.3305| -1.8| 1/13 Consumer Discretionary| -16.8218| -2.0| 1/10 Real Estate | -12.8450| -2.6| 0/20 Consumer Staples | -4.7124| -0.5| 1/9 Communication Services| -2.6484| -0.4| 2/3 Health Care | -2.2376| -3.1| 0/4 ================================================================ | | |Volume VS| YTD | Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%) ================================================================ Shopify | -106.3000| -7.3| 27.7| 53.5 Brookfield Corp | -44.4200| -5.2| 18.5| 50.6 RBC | -40.2800| -2.3| 66.6| 29.1 Torex Gold Resources | 1.1690| 7.2| 196.2| 98.7 Canadian Pacific Kansas | 1.5700| 0.2| 2.2| 0.6 GFL Environmental | 2.9320| 2.9| 148.3| 43.6 US By Rheaa Rao and Emily Graffeo (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve jarred US markets Wednesday, pushing stocks lower and sending Treasury yields soaring, after forecasting fewer interest rate cuts next year. It was the worst loss for the S&P 500 on the day of a rate decision since 2001. The S&P 500 fell below the 6,000 level, suffering its worst session since August. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 3.6%, the most in five months. Micron Technology Inc. fell post market after reporting earnings. The policy-sensitive two-year US Treasury yield surged 10 basis points to 4.35% and the 10-year rate rose to a level last seen in May. Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar jumped to its highest since November 2022. While Jerome Powell delivered a widely expected quarter- point rate cut following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank signaled increasing wariness around inflation, including a reduction in how far members expect easing to go in 2025. Powell reemphasized that the central bank would be more cautious as it considers further adjustments to the policy rate and said the Fed is committed to reaching its 2% target. “We need to see progress on inflation,” Powell said. “That is how we are thinking about it. It is kind of a new thing. We moved quickly to get to here but moving forward we are moving slower.” The velocity of Wednesday’s drop befit the speed with which the Fed’s pivoted back to an inflation-leery posture. Before the latest session, the S&P 500 had surged more than 10% since the FOMC’s July 31 rate decision, at which the central bank dropped its one-sided risk assessment and said keeping the labor market expanding had become a bigger priority. In Wednesday’s briefing, the chair also said some policymakers had begun to incorporate into their forecasts the potential impact of higher tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump may implement. But he said the impact of such policy proposals was at this point highly uncertain. Max Gokhman, senior vice president at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, called Powell “a hawk in dove’s clothing.” “Despite playing down the recent slowdown in disinflation while boasting about the strength of economic momentum, he still hinted that tariffs won’t be written off as transitory and that the two-cut forecast for 2025 is necessary because policy must remain restrictive,” he said. The last time the S&P 500 saw losses of the magnitude on Fed’s decision day was on Sept. 17, 2001, when the index fell nearly 5%. It fell 12% on March 16, 2020, a day after the Federal Reserve’s emergency weekend meeting during the pandemic. Whitney Watson of Goldman Sachs Asset Management expects the Fed to skip a rate cut in January before resuming on its easing path in March. “While the Fed opted to round out the year with a third consecutive cut, its New Year’s resolution appears to be for a more gradual pace of easing,” Watson, global co-head and co-chief investment officer of fixed income and liquidity solutions at the firm, said. Key events this week: * Japan rate decision, Thursday * UK BOE rate decision * US revised GDP, Thursday * Japan CPI, Friday * China loan prime rates, Friday * Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday * US personal income, spending & PCE inflation, Friday Stocks * The S&P 500 fell 2.9% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time * The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.6% * The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.6% * The MSCI World Index fell 2.6% Currencies * The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.9% * The euro fell 1.2% to $1.0368 * The British pound fell 1% to $1.2583 * The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 154.64 per dollar Cryptocurrencies * Bitcoin fell 5.2% to $100,886.84 * Ether fell 6% to $3,693.97 Bonds * The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 4.50% * Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.25% * Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.56% Commodities * West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $69.99 a barrel * Spot gold fell 2% to $2,593.75 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation. –With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Lu Wang and Stephen Kirkland. Have a lovely evening. Be magnificent! As ever, Carolann Those who cannot love want power. – Adolph Guggenbuhl-Craig, 1923-2008.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
The beginning of Saturnalia in ancient Rome: Roman masters served their slaves December 17-23.

December 17^th, 1903: Orville Wright pilots the first powered aircraft for 12 seconds at Kitty Hawk, Norh Carolina.  This breakthrough launches the age of aviation and transforms human transport forever.
Orville and Wilbur Wright made the first successful man-powered airplane flight, near Kitty Hawk, N.C.  Go to article.

December 17, 1971: John Lennon, Yoko Ono, and Aretha Franklin perform at a benefit at the Apollo for the Attica Prison Uprising families.

1790: Aztec calendar stone discovered.

World’s 1st nuclear-diamond battery of its kind could power devices for 1000s of years
The world’s first nuclear-diamond battery uses carbon-14 to power devices for more than 10,000 years. Read More.

Do atoms ever touch?
Atoms make up everything around us, but do these building blocks of matter ever actually touch? Read More.

Woman who stowed away on Delta flight to Paris apprehended again
The woman who stowed away on a Delta flight from New York to Paris last month was taken into custody again, this time trying to sneak into Canada.

China extends visa-free transit policy
China has tripled the amount of time visitors can spend in the country without a visa in yet another move to entice more foreign tourists.

China extends visa-free transit policy
China has tripled the amount of time visitors can spend in the country without a visa in yet another move to entice more foreign tourists.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Val Gardena, Italy
Switzerland’s Marco Odermatt in action during men’s downhill training for the FIS Alpine Ski World Cup
Photograph: Leonhard Föger/Reuters

Yala, Sri Lanka
Malabar pied hornbills perch on a tree at the Yala national park
Photograph: Ishara S Kodikara/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Changchun, China
Aerial view of ice sculptures at Changchun Ice and Snow New World in Jilin province
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images
Market Closes for December 17, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43449.90	-267.58
		-0.61%
S&P 500	6050.61	-23.47
		-0.39%
NASDAQ	20109.06	-64.83
		-0.32%
TSX	25119.71	-27.50
		-0.11%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39277.29	-87.39
		-0.22%
HANG SENG	19852.77	+152.29
		+0.77%
SENSEX	80684.45	-1064.12
		-1.30%
FTSE 100*	8195.20	-66.85
		-0.81%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.142	3.187
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.223	3.279
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3888	4.3967
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5808	4.5984

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6983	0.7023
US $	1.4320	1.4239

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5034	0.6652
US $	1.0499	0.9525

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2654.20	2659.05
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.08	71.29

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1992, the U.S., Canada and Mexico signed the North American Free Trade Agreement, after 14 months of negotiations.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fourth day, dropping 0.1%, or 27.5 to 25,119.71 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Nov. 20.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 0.6%.
Air Canada had the largest drop, falling 9.4%.
Today, 139 of 219 shares fell, while 76 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 20%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 4.7%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 27% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.8% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 22.7% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.5% in the past 5 days and rose 0.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.96t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.65% compared with 8.13% in the previous session and the average of 8.36% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -24.4370| -0.3| 5/21
Energy | -18.0625| -0.4| 4/35
Industrials | -13.6834| -0.4| 11/16
Materials | -9.9505| -0.3| 17/31
Consumer Staples | -8.4763| -0.8| 3/7
Communication Services | -7.5002| -1.2| 0/5
Consumer Discretionary | -0.5763| -0.1| 4/7
Utilities | 0.9117| 0.1| 8/7
Health Care | 1.3569| 1.9| 3/1
Real Estate | 2.6597| 0.5| 15/5
Information Technology | 50.2618| 1.9| 6/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -5.7550| -0.6| -19.3| -12.2
Air Canada | -5.5050| -9.4| 125.0| 20.9
Telus | -4.3920| -2.1| 49.0| -14.7
Canadian National | 3.4950| 0.6| -45.0| -11.5
Constellation Software | 4.8420| 0.8| 51.1| 41.8
Shopify | 47.1900| 3.4| -18.9| 65.6
US
By Rheaa Rao
(Bloomberg) — US stocks declined as traders braced for the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated rate decision and its forecast for next year.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 slid 0.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its longest losing streak since 1978.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.40%.
Bloomberg’s dollar gauge fluctuated for most of the session.
Earlier, data showed that US retail sales increased at a firm pace in November, highlighting consumer resilience.
While the report didn’t seem to change expectations for a rate cut by the Fed this week, there is an understanding that the central bank will prepare the market for a pause early next year, said Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets.
Industrial production data also came in Tuesday, unexpectedly declining for a third month in November.
Traders are now turning to the Fed’s last rate decision of the year due Wednesday.
A quarter-point cut is widely expected, but what happens in the following months is less clear.
While the US economy is resilient, the prospect of inflationary import tariffs proposed by the incoming administration of Donald Trump may give Fed officials pause about the pace of further moves.
Bank of America Corp. sees the Fed lowering interest rates to the 3.75% level — or three more cuts from where they are, CEO Brian Moynihan said on Bloomberg Television.
“They need to bring it down a little bit, they just have to be more careful because the economy is stronger than we thought three months ago, six months ago but still has potential weaknesses” he said.
“We haven’t even talked about what is going on outside the United States that could affect it — not tariffs but wars.”
On the other hand, Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing, E*Trade from Morgan Stanley, says more strong economic data like retail sales could bolster the case for the Fed to pause in January.
In either case, what happens to stocks and bonds will be determined by what the Fed says about cuts in 2025 instead of the central bank’s decision tomorrow, wrote Tom Essaye, president and founder of Sevens Report and a former Merrill Lynch trader.
In Canada, inflation dropped below the central bank’s target for the second time in three months.
The data is expected to give Bank of Canada officials confidence that their rapid rate cuts didn’t derail their efforts to keep price gains at the 2% target.
However, persisting political discord in Canada pushed the loonie to a Covid-era low.
Concerns over Brazil’s ballooning debt and deficits pushed the real to all-time lows.
To stem the slide in the currency, its central bank sold over $3 billion in local markets in back-to-back auctions — its fourth intervention in three days.
Elsewhere, money markets continued to trim wagers on Bank of England interest-rate cuts as attention turns to Wednesday’s UK November inflation figures.
Traders place the chance of a third quarter-point reduction next year at 25%, down from 90% on Monday.
Gilt yields rose.
Earlier, index of Asian currencies fell to the lowest in more than two years amid pessimism over China’s economic outlook and expectations that Trump policies will drive gains in the greenback.
Among other notable currencies, the yen snapped a six-day losing streak. The yen’s rapid decline in the past week had strategists warning that further weakness may trigger verbal intervention from authorities and add pressure on the Bank of Japan to hike rates.
Meanwhile, oil fell for a second day after Chinese economic data stoked concerns about demand and equity markets slipped. 

Key events this week:
* UK CPI, Wednesday
* Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
* US rate decision, Wednesday
* Japan rate decision, Thursday
* UK BOE rate decision
* US revised GDP, Thursday
* Japan CPI, Friday
* China loan prime rates, Friday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday
* US personal income, spending & PCE inflation, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4:02 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0488
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2709
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 153.55 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $106,608.76
* Ether fell 2.9% to $3,929.27
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.40%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.23%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 4.52%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $70.19 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,643.85 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric and Andre Janse van Vuuren.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Iron rusts from disuse; stagnant water loses its purity and in cold weather becomes frozen;  even so does inaction sap the vigor of the mind. -Leonardo da Vinci, 1452-1519.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

December 16, 1773: The Boston Tea Party.  American colonists throw 342 chests of tea into Boston Harbour to protest British taxation, an act that sparks the American Revolution.
December 16, 1985: Reputed organized-crime chief Paul Castellano was shot to death outside a New York City restaurant. Go to article.

Ludwig Von Beethoven, composer, b. 1770.
Jane Austen, novelist, b.1775.
Noel Coward, playwright, b.1899
Margaret Mead, anthropologist, b.1901.

1,800-year-old silver amulet could rewrite history of Christianity in the early Roman Empire
A silver amulet found in a 1,800-year-old grave in Germany speaks to the importance — and the risk — of being Christian in Roman times. Read More.

Just a fraction of the hydrogen hidden beneath Earth’s surface could power Earth for 200 years, scientists find
Trillions of tons of hydrogen gas are likely buried in rocks and reservoirs beneath Earth’s surface, but researchers aren’t sure where it is yet. Read More.

James Webb telescope spots more than 100 new asteroids between Jupiter and Mars — and some are heading toward Earth
Astronomers analyzing archival images from JWST have discovered an unexpectedly vast population of the smallest asteroids ever seen in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. Read More.

Why Travis Hunter is such a rare talent in college football
One of the rarest qualities in all team sports is the ability to impact a game in multiple ways, and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter is exactly that.

British pubs are worried they’ll run out of Guinness
Diageo, which owns the Guinness brand, has told some pub owners that it would set allocation limits on its beer to ensure distribution can last through the holiday season.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sydney, Australia
A Santa testing his surf skills before Christmas Day at URBNSURF at Sydney Olympic Park
Photograph: James D Morgan/Getty Images for URBNSURF

Troon, UK
Kite surfers at South Beach take advantage of the weather in Scotland. The Met Office issued a yellow weather warning for parts of Scotland lasting until Tuesday, as it forecast 70-100mm of rainfall
Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Romford, UK
A Christmas light display at a home on Pettits Lane in Greater London
Photograph: Jordan Pettitt/PA
Market Closes for December 16, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43717.48	-110.58
		-0.25%
S&P 500	6074.08	+22.99
		+0.38%
NASDAQ	20173.89	+247.17
		+1.24%
TSX	25147.21	-127.08
		-0.50%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39457.49	-12.95
		-0.03%
HANG SENG	19795.49	-175.75
		-0.88%
SENSEX	81748.57	-384.55
		-0.47%
FTSE 100*	8262.05	-38.28
		-0.46%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.187	3.179
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.279	3.270
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3967	4.3967
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5984	4.6013

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7023	0.7024
US $	1.4239	1.4236

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4965	0.6682
US $	1.0510	0.9515

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2659.05	2684.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.29	71.29

Market Commentary:
🚧 On this day in 1685, under orders from the British Governor General, workmen finished laying out a 36-foot-wide street of stone and dirt in lower Manhattan. The thoroughfare, which ran along a wall, was naturally named Wall Street.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.5%, or 127.08 to 25,147.21 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Nov. 20.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 159 of 219 shares fell, while 54 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.9%.
Baytex Energy Corp. had the largest drop, falling 5.0%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 20%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 4.8%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 28% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.7% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 22.9% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.9% in the past 5 days and rose 1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.98t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.13% compared with 8.01% in the previous session and the average of 8.39% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -57.2423| -1.3| 3/37
Materials | -39.6587| -1.3| 10/39
Communication Services | -23.0255| -3.7| 0/5
Industrials | -12.2182| -0.4| 6/20
Consumer Staples | -3.3153| -0.3| 4/6
Utilities | -2.7625| -0.3| 6/9
Consumer Discretionary | -2.3375| -0.3| 3/8
Real Estate | -1.5906| -0.3| 4/16
Health Care | -0.4670| -0.6| 1/3
Financials | 4.9412| 0.1| 14/10
Information Technology | 10.5913| 0.4| 3/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -12.3800| -1.9| 52.3| 1.3
Barrick Gold | -7.2500| -2.5| -2.3| -2.6
Enbridge | -7.0220| -0.8| -3.0| 24.2
Manulife Financial | 2.3690| 0.4| -9.8| 51.2
Brookfield Asset Management | 5.0440| 2.4| -60.6| 57.2
Shopify | 17.8200| 1.3| -37.1| 60.3
US
By Rheaa Rao and Andre Janse van Vuuren
(Bloomberg) — US stocks broadly ended Monday’s session higher as traders geared up for interest-rate decisions by major central banks across the globe due later this week.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4% while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.5% to notch another record high.
The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.39%.
Bitcoin hit a fresh record.
Sentiment in the US is relatively positive, with a widely expected quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday seen as adding fresh support and extending stocks’ outperformance.
That stands in contrast to losses in Asia and Europe on Monday after weaker-than-anticipated retail data in China.
In the US, “near-term momentum may depend on what Fed Chair Powell says after the announcement, and whether retail sales or the PCE Price Index catch the market off guard,” said Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing, at E*Trade from
Morgan Stanley.
Historically, most of the stock market’s December gains tend to come in the second half of the month, he said, adding that the S&P 500 had a positive net return in this period 78% of the time since 1957.
Traders are also parsing fresh economic data.
On Monday, data showed that activity at US service providers is expanding at the fastest pace since October 2021.
Meanwhile, a measure of New York state factory activity retreated by the most since last May.
The main focus remains Wednesday’s Fed decision, which will be followed by policy announcements in Japan, the Nordics and the UK this week.
Even if we get a “hawkish cut” from the Fed, it would be because the central bank sees underlying strength in the economy, and that means the rally in US stocks could continue to broaden out, Tony DeSpirito, BlackRock’s global chief investment officer of fundamental equities, said on Bloomberg TV.
Bloomberg’s dollar index, meanwhile, fluctuated between modest gains and losses on Monday.
After strengthening more than 6% so far this year, Wall Street is starting to sour on the greenback as Trump’s policies and the Fed’s interest-rate cuts are seen to put pressure on the currency in the latter portion of 2025.
The Canadian dollar declined modestly on news that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will name Dominic LeBlanc finance minister.
Earlier, finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigned from Trudeau’s cabinet because of differences over how to prepare for the Trump administration.
German lawmakers passed a measure that will pave the way for a national election in two months, backing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s plan to end his embattled administration early.
Meanwhile, euro-area private-sector activity shrank less than anticipated thanks to a bigger-than-expected contribution from services.
French bonds lagged peers after Moody’s Ratings cut the country’s credit rating.
The Bank of France trimmed its domestic growth outlook, with the central bank citing political upheaval as a drag on household and business confidence.
In China, retail sales growth unexpectedly weakened in November despite signs of improvement in the housing market.
The data builds on traders’ disappointment last week when Beijing pledged to boost consumption but failed to offer details on fiscal stimulus.
The retail-sales data “is a reflection of the dire situation there and how the stimulus efforts have prioritized optics over delivering meaningful economic improvements,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore.
“Even for a tactical recovery, we need more after a series of false starts and the risk of tariffs ahead.”
Oil slipped after China’s latest economic data reinforced concerns over weakening demand in the biggest importer.

Key events this week:
* UK jobless claims, unemployment, Tuesday
* UK CPI, Wednesday
* Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
* US rate decision, Wednesday
* Japan rate decision, Thursday
* UK BOE rate decision
* US revised GDP, Thursday
* Japan CPI, Friday
* China loan prime rates, Friday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday
* US personal income, spending & PCE inflation, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4:02 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0510
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2684
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 154.16 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3% to $105,941.89
* Ether rose 5.1% to $4,050.13
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.25%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.44%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $70.61 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,652.44 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Winnie Hsu and Alex Nicholson.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It’s not the daily increase but daily decrease.  Hack away at the unessential. –Bruce Lee, 1940-1973.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Friday.  Full moon this weekend. Luciadagen, Lucia’s Day, Sweden.

Mary Todd Lincoln, 1rst Lady, b. 1818.
Christopher Plummer, actor, b.1929.
Jamie Foxx, actor, b. 1967.
Taylor Swift, singer-songwriter, b.1989.

Satellites reveal stunningly detailed maps of Earth’s seafloors
A newly-deployed satellite has created the most-detailed map yet of the ocean floor, finding hundreds of hills and underwater volcanoes that were previously missed. Read More.

Our sun may be overdue for a ‘super flare’ stronger than billions of atomic bombs, new research warns
Observations made using a new method have revealed that sun-like stars produce cataclysmic super-flares once every hundred years. Could our sun create one soon? Read More.

Scientists spot ‘L-shaped structures’ and ‘weird things’ near monster black hole in epic new Hubble telescope images
New Hubble Space Telescope images of a black hole-powered quasar reveal ‘weird’ structures and gigantic jets of energy that scientists are just beginning to explain. Read More.

What are ‘attachment styles,’ and is there science to back them up?
Attachment styles are real, but there are a lot of misconceptions about how they work. Read More.

Google and Samsung are taking on Apple with a mixed-reality headset
The two companies are joining forces to release a mixed-reality headset that will compete with Apple’s Vision Pro and Meta’s Quest 3.

Sake made in space could sell for $500,000 a glass
Asahi Shuzo, the company behind the popular Japanese sake brand Dassai, plans to blast sake ingredients to the International Space Station. They hope to ferment a brew that’s truly out of this world.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Inner Mongolia, China
A herdsman tames horses on snow-covered grassland in East Ujimqin Banner of Xilin Gol League, north China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock

Malelane, South Africa
David Ravetto of France watches the elephants in Crocodile River, Kruger National Park, flanking the 13th green on day two of the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek Country Club.
Photograph: Warren Little/Getty Images
Bristol, England
Three children receive ‘best Christmas present ever’ bionic arms. Colette Baker, Finley Jarvis and Zoey Pidgeon-Hampton with their new Open Bionics arms.
Photograph: Tom Wren/SWNS
Market Closes for December 13, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43828.06	-86.06
		-0.20%
S&P 500	6051.09	-0.16
		—
NASDAQ	19926.72	+23.88
		+0.12%
TSX	25274.30	-136.41
		-0.54%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39470.44	-378.70
		-0.95%
HANG SENG	19971.24	-425.81
		-2.09%
SENSEX	82133.12	+843.16
		+1.04%
FTSE 100*	8300.33	+10.14
		+0.12%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.179	3.142
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.270	3.242
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3967	4.3199
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6013	4.5391

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7024	0.7031
US $	1.4236	1.4223

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4952	0.6688
US $	1.0503	0.9522

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2684.35	2705.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.29	70.02

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1961, the longest bull market on record finally ended. Since it began in 1949, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen more than 350%. Over the next six months it fell 27%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.5%, or 136.41 to 25,274.30 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Nov. 20.
Waste Connections Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.4%.
Enghouse Systems Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 12.9%.
Today, 158 of 219 shares fell, while 58 rose; all sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 21%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 5.3%
* So far this week, the index fell 1.6%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Sept. 6
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 28% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.2% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 25.6% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 17.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.01t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.01% compared with 7.74% in the previous session and the average of 8.40% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -52.4174| -1.7| 5/44
Energy | -29.3766| -0.7| 10/31
Industrials | -23.5338| -0.7| 9/17
Financials | -10.9489| -0.1| 13/13
Communication Services | -6.8127| -1.1| 0/5
Consumer Discretionary | -4.7680| -0.6| 3/8
Real Estate | -4.5852| -0.9| 2/17
Consumer Staples | -1.4300| -0.1| 4/6
Utilities | -1.0815| -0.1| 8/7
Information Technology | -1.0630| 0.0| 3/7
Health Care | -0.3822| -0.5| 1/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Waste Connections | -11.2300| -2.4| 54.2| 29.4
Shopify | -8.0620| -0.6| -37.0| 58.2
Cameco | -7.3530| -3.0| -19.7| 35.3
Manulife Financial | 2.7430| 0.5| -32.7| 50.5
Bank of Nova Scotia| 2.9310| 0.4| -34.3| 22.4
Celestica | 9.7950| 9.1| 67.2| 263.9
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — This year’s frontrunners, big technology stocks, set a record while Treasuries sank as investors braced for a slowdown in the pace of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cuts ahead of a meeting next week.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed for the fourth week in a row powered by a Friday surge in Broadcom Inc. across the entire chip-technology complex.
The tech-heavy gauge rose 0.8% to an all-time high for the second time in three days while other major US stock indexes struggled.
The S&P 500 slid 0.6% this week while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.8%.
Shares in Broadcom Inc. jumped 24% to a record after predicting a boom in demand for its artificial intelligence chips and reaching a $1 trillion market value.
Peers Marvell Technology Inc., Micron Technology Inc. and Nvidia Corp. also rose.
A widely expected quarter-point interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, could juice up this year’s seemingly unstoppable climb.
The S&P 500 — fueled mostly by tech names — has rallied 27% so far in 2024, and strategists polled by Bloomberg predict it will outpace European peers again in 2025.
While Wall Street has applauded the rally, that the rest of the equity market has largely lagged tech behemoths has been a growing concern for some.
“Tech stocks have reminded investors over the past week that the AI/quantum computing movement isn’t dying down anytime soon,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report.
Still, “strength in tech masked what was an average performance for the rest of the market.”
A Bespoke Investment Group analysis noted that there hasn’t been a single session in December where more stocks in the S&P 500 gained than declined.
By their calculations hat’s the longest streak in more than 20 years.
Around a third of stocks in the benchmark advanced Friday while the vast majority traded lower.
An equal-weighted gauge of the S&P 500 slid.
Meanwhile, the world’s biggest bond market sank deeper, with Treasuries set for their worst week in more than two months.
The yield on the 10-year benchmark rose to 4.40%.
“The market is readying for another move from the Fed that is more likely than not to be characterized as a hawkish cut,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen wrote to clients Thursday.
After a series of mixed data this week — including accelerating wholesale inflation and higher-than-expected jobless claims — swaps traders have pared back wagers on the Fed’s easing path.
They are now pricing in around three quarter-point rate cuts over the next 12 months.
A week ago they had seen better than 50/50 odds of a fourth cut and there may be more pullbacks to come.
The US central bank’s three-year outlook won’t fully incorporate “Trump shocks,” according to Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha, “implying the median three could really be two on a fully marked-to-market basis.”
“The Fed is adopting a high optionality approach around a baseline that seeks to keep policy dynamically well-positioned as we move into the high-uncertainty Trump period,” the former New York Fed official said.
In currency markets, a Bloomberg gauge of dollar strength steadied against a basket of currencies, notching a second straight week of gains.
Timothy Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street Global Markets expects more gains for the greenback, noting the Fed’s easing cycle could prove shallow relative to Europe, where economic growth is weaker.
Swap markets aren’t pricing a cut from the Bank of England at next week’s meeting, despite weak data Friday.
The pound weakened after Britain’s economy unexpectedly contracted for a second straight month in October.
The euro strengthened after the European Central Bank sounded less dovish on rates than some expected following a policy announcement Thursday, forcing traders to pare policy-easing bets for next year.
China Letdown Asian shares fell as a key economic meeting in China pledged to boost consumption but failed to offer details on fiscal stimulus.
A gauge of world stocks marked its worst week in nearly a month.
“The news flow has been underwhelming,” Beata Manthey, head of European equity strategy at Citigroup Inc., said of announcements from China. “The markets want numbers. We didn’t get the numbers.”
However, Chinese 10-year government bond yields slid below 1.8% for the first time in history, as authorities vowed to cut policy rates and banks’ reserve ratios.
Investors also poured $5.6 billion into Chinese stock funds over the past week, Bank of America Corp. strategists said, attributing the inflows to the policy-easing pledges.
WTI crude futures climbed past $71 a barrel for the first time in December, up nearly 6% this week on the prospect for tighter US sanctions against Iran and Russia.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0496
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2618
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 153.66 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $101,662.76
* Ether rose 1.3% to $3,915.62
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.40%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.26%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.41%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.6% to $71.11 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.3% to $2,646.74 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Michael Msika, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Sujata Rao, John Viljoen and Robert Brand.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It is not the brains that matter most, but that which guides them – the character, the heart, generous qualities, progressive ideas. –Fyodor Mikhailovich Dostoevsky, 1821-1881.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: La Virgen de Guadalupe, Mexico.

December 12, 1901: Guglielmo Marconi receives the first transatlantic radio signal in Newfoundland sent from England.  This breakthrough revolutionised global communication, enabling real-time transoceanic exchange.

Gustave Flaubert, writer, b.1821.
Frank Sinatra, b.1915.
Jennifer Connelly, actress, b. 1970

Black hole paradox that stumped Stephen Hawking may have a solution, new paper claims
As black holes slowly vanish through Hawking radiation, their information may be preserved in subtle space-time ripples, a new theory suggests. Read More.

Watch Chinese security robot with wheels for feet scramble down hills and perform acrobatics
With wheels and a choice of two legs or four, the DEEP Robotics Lynx is capable of traversing tough terrain. Read More.

Stone Age ‘CSI’: Archaeologists identify a family killed in a house fire nearly 6 millennia ago
Human bones discovered in a house that burned down 5,700 years ago are providing archaeologists “CSI”-style clues about the deaths of seven people in prehistoric Ukraine. Read More.

Herbal medicine vs. traditional medicine
Herbal medicine is prevalent across the world, but it’s difficult to standardize or regulate. Researchers in Thailand are exploring the science of herbal compresses to make this ancient remedy more accessible.

15 of the best places to go for Christmas
From England to the Philippines, these 15 places around the world offer up some of the best holiday charm for a Christmas vacation.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Giza, Egypt
Tourists ride camels between theSphinx and Menkaure, the smallest of the three great pyramids. Earlier this year, Egypt scrapped a plan to restore cladding on the monument after international outcry
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Nevşehir, Turkey
Hot-air balloons rise above homes carved into rock in the Cappadocia region
Photograph: Behcet Alkan/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Leslie Gulch is a canyon found within the Owyhee Canyonlands and is largely composed of ‘tuff’, which is rhyolite ash that was deposited after an eruption an estimated 15.5m years ago.
Photograph: Roger Phillips/AP
Market Closes for December 12, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43914.12	-234.44
		-0.53%
S&P 500	6051.25	-32.94
		-0.54%
NASDAQ	19902.84	-132.05
		-0.66%
TSX	25410.71	-246.99
		-0.96%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39561.96	-287.18
		-0.72%
HANG SENG	20397.05	+242.00
		+1.20%
SENSEX	81289.96	-236.18
		-0.29
FTSE 100*	8311.76	+10.14
		+0.12%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.142	3.085
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.242	3.198
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3199	4.2633
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5391	4.4731

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7031	0.7068
US $	1.4223	1.4148

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4897	0.6713
US $	1.0474	0.9548

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2705.45	2705.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.02	70.29

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1791: The Bank of the United States opened for business in Philadelphia. Conceived by Alexander Hamilton to help rebuild the economy after the Revolutionary War, the bank quickly caused the first stock-market boom and bust–the Panic of 1792–by flooding the market with loans and then calling them in.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1% at 25,410.71 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.4% on Oct. 31 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.3%. Equinox Gold Corp. had the largest drop, falling 9.3%.
Today, 166 of 219 shares fell, while 51 rose; all sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 15 times. The next day, it advanced 10 times for an average 0.5% and declined five times for an average 0.8%
* This year, the index rose 21%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 5.9%
* So far this week, the index fell 1.1%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Oct. 25
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 30% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.7% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 26.3% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1% in the past 5 days and rose 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.04t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.74% compared with 6.93% in the previous session and the average of 8.42% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -76.0998| -2.5| 5/45
Financials | -60.7141| -0.7| 5/21
Energy | -54.9989| -1.3| 7/34
Information Technology | -24.7476| -0.9| 3/7
Industrials | -10.3062| -0.3| 10/17
Communication Services | -7.4031| -1.2| 1/4
Utilities | -7.3665| -0.8| 3/11
Consumer Discretionary | -2.9160| -0.3| 3/7
Consumer Staples | -2.1660| -0.2| 4/6
Real Estate | -0.1673| 0.0| 9/11
Health Care | -0.0810| -0.1| 1/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -18.1600| -1.3| -19.9| 59.1
Canadian Natural Resources | -15.5100| -2.3| -0.6| 3.7
RBC | -11.4100| -0.6| -1.3| 32.4
Bombardier | 1.9950| 3.2| -21.6| 96.8
Empire Co | 2.2560| 5.2| 152.6| 29.2
TD Bank | 4.0410| 0.4| 49.1| -11.1
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — A rally that shot the world’s biggest technology stocks to all-time highs lost steam Thursday as Wall Street held off on big bets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.
The Nasdaq 100 tumbled 0.7% while the S&P 500 fell 0.5% as traders weighed higher-than-expected jobless claims against too hot producer price data.
The equity benchmarks had made strong gains in the prior session after an in-line US inflation report almost fully baked in bets on a quarter-point interest rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 18 meeting.
Data showed initial jobless claims rose to 242,000 for the week ended Dec. 7, ahead of economists’ estimates for 220,000.
November producer price readings released at the same time were mixed, with US wholesale inflation accelerating in November due to a surge in egg prices.
Treasuries failed to hold onto an advance after the reading as investors tried to gauge when the central bank will hit pause on interest-rate cuts.
“With high egg prices appearing to play a key role in the hotter-than-expected headline PPI, traders may be focusing more on the jump in jobless claims,” according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
While there’s been a steady stream of solid labor data, “the Fed is primed to be sensitive to any signs of a softening jobs picture.”
A third-consecutive rate cut from the US central bank is widely expected next week after the European Central Bank met expectations for a quarter-point of interest-rate easing, while the Swiss National Bank made a surprising 50 basis-point rate reduction.
A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar strengthened 0.3%, advancing for the fifth consecutive session as traders gauged the prospect of a Fed pause in early-2025 while US bonds fell for the fourth day in a row.
Treasuries have climbed immediately after readouts this week only to see those gains evaporate.
The yield on the 10-year rose to 4.33% Thursday.
Stan Shipley at Evercore ISI expects the benchmark note to end 2025 around 4.6%.
“The uncertainty of the US economic outlook has increased even though the recession odds have vanished,” Shipley wrote.
“This is because economic policy details are not clear.”
To Ella Hoxha, head of fixed income at Newton Investment Management, a “hawkish cut” from the Fed is possible next week.
“In that setup, the risk is still that you price the Fed to be a bit more cautious rather than more dovish.”
Despite Thursday’s pause in the stock’s markets relentless rally, Fundstrat’s Mark Newton sees more room for stock benchmarks to set new highs into year end.
“It’s a known fact that the PPI doesn’t really affect core PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation,” said the firm’s head of technical strategy.
With only a handful of companies — including Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. — responsible for the bulk of the the S&P 500’s 27% year-to-date run some on Wall Street are growing increasingly concerned more stocks aren’t participating in the rally.
“Shorter-term breadth gauges have waned sharply, but this doesn’t have to bring about a correction,” Newton wrote to clients.
Small-caps, transports and the Dow Jones Industrial Average could push back to new highs, he said.
The S&P 500 gauge is now headed for its ninth consecutive day where the number of constituents falling outnumbers those rising.
That’s the longest such streak since Bloomberg started collecting the data in 2004.
In Europe, the euro weakened after the ECB cut.
Earlier in the week, Canada lowered its policy rates by a half point, while Australia hinted it’s moving toward easing and China vowed to deliver rate cuts.
Japan, meanwhile, signaled it’s in no hurry to hike rates.
In commodities, WTI crude contracts pared losses after the International Energy Agency warned of a supply glut in 2025.
Gold tumbled as much as 1.6%, the biggest intraday drop in more than two weeks.

Corporate Highlights:
* Riot Platforms Inc.’s stock jumped after a report that activist investor Starboard Value had built up a significant stake in the Bitcoin miner.
* Adobe Inc. was under pressure after giving a disappointing annual sales outlook, underscoring anxieties that the creative software company may lose business to emerging artificial intelligence-based startups.
* Warner Bros Discoverny Inc. is changing its corporate structure and creating separate divisions for its cable and streaming businesses.
* ServiceTitan Inc. shares opened 42% above their initial public offering price after the residential and commercial repair software company raised $624.8 million.
* Apple Inc.’s ambitious plan to create in-house components for its devices will include switching to a homegrown chip for Bluetooth and Wi-Fi connections starting next year, a move that will replace some parts currently provided by Broadcom Inc.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0466
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.2667
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 152.67 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $100,098.25
* Ether rose 1.4% to $3,886.63
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.33%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.20%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.36%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $70.16 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.4% to $2,680.15 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Geoffrey Morgan, John Viljoen, Robert Brand, Elizabeth Stanton, Edward Bolingbroke and Sujata Rao.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
To be trusted is a greater compliment than being loved. –George MacDonald, 1824-1905.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
December 11, 1792: French King Louis XVI goes on trial, accused of high treason and crimes against the state during the French Revolution.
December 11, 1936: Edward VIII abdicates the Throne to marry Wallis Simpson.
On Dec. 11, 1941, Germany and Italy declared war on the United States; the U.S. responded in kind.   Go to article

1946: UNICEF founded.
1882: Fiorello LaGuardia is born in Greenwich Village.

Hector Berlioz, composer, b.1803.
John Kerry, US Senator, b.1943.
Tom Haydn, activist, b. 1939.

Ritually bent Bronze Age sword unearthed in Danish bog is ‘very rare find’
The sword, which has iron rivets in its handle, may be one of the earliest iron artifacts found in Denmark. Read More.

New quantum computing milestone smashes entanglement world record
Researchers have made significant progress in the quest for scalable and fault-tolerant quantum computers after entangling the most logical qubits on record. Read More.
Tiger Woods to compete for first time since back surgery
Tiger Woods is set to return to golf for the first time since having back surgery three months ago. Fortunately, he’ll have the support of his son, Charlie, who will also participate in the PNC Championship in Orlando next week.

Dolly Parton explains why her husband doesn’t attend events with her
Country queen Dolly Parton has been married for 58 years but we hardly ever see her famously private husband, Carl Dean. Here’s why the two rarely attend events together.

Man wins Spanish Scrabble championships — yet doesn’t speak Spanish
A New Zealand man hailed as a Scrabble phenom won the Spanish World Scrabble Championships, despite reportedly not speaking the language.

Japanese airline announces baggage delivery service for travelers
Japan Airlines is now offering to drop passengers’ luggage off at their hotels for a fee to combat overcrowding. Should US airlines follow suit?

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Van, Turkey
Young people sledge down a road closed by snow
Photograph: Ozkan Bilgin/Anadolu/Getty Images

A family of elephants walk together at the Aberdare National Park after their relocation
Photograph: Thomas Mukoya/Reuters
Sheffield, UK
‘A shop-window reflection of the city’s Christmas fair during its opening weekend.’
Photograph: Robert Mann
Market Closes for December 11, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44148.56	-99.27
		-0.22%
S&P 500	6084.19	+49.28
		+0.82%
NASDAQ	20034.89	+347.65
		+1.77%
TSX	25657.70	+153.37
		+0.60%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39842.99	+470.76
		+1.20%
HANG SENG	20115.05	-156.23
		-0.77%
SENSEX	81526.14	+16.09
		+0.02
FTSE 100*	8301.62	+21.26
		+0.26%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.085	3.018
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.198	3.156
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2633	4.2263
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4731	4.4175

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7068	0.7056
US $	1.4148	1.4172

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4863	0.6728
US $	1.0505	0.9519

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2705.45	2671.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.29	68.59

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1941, the New York Stock Exchange suspended trading in all “enemy securities,” including those from Germany and Japan
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 25,657.70 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.4% on Nov. 21 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.5%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.4%.
Novagold Resources Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.2%.
Today, 130 of 219 shares rose, while 83 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 6.9%
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 31% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 27.5% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 3.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.02t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.93% compared with 8.40% in the previous session and the average of 8.45% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 61.9993| 2.0| 37/11
Information Technology | 58.2323| 2.2| 8/2
Energy | 35.8237| 0.8| 34/6
Financials | 31.2696| 0.4| 14/11
Consumer Staples | 3.8143| 0.4| 4/6
Real Estate | 2.0924| 0.4| 11/7
Consumer Discretionary | -1.9547| -0.2| 6/5
Health Care | -2.5200| -3.4| 0/4
Industrials | -10.0112| -0.3| 11/16
Utilities | -10.4670| -1.1| 5/10
Communication Services | -14.9098| -2.3| 0/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 46.6800| 3.4| -25.7| 61.2
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 14.8200| 3.5| -3.6| 70.4
Brookfield Corp | 12.3200| 1.5| -20.3| 60.1
Nutrien | -3.4340| -1.4| 46.8| -9.1
BCE | -4.5410| -1.9| 44.4| -29.4
Canadian National | -6.4860| -1.1| 41.8| -10.5
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — Investors’ enthusiasm for US technology giants sent stocks higher Wednesday, snapping a two-day slide after a benign inflation report cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep cutting interest rates.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.9% to a record while the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, nearing a recent peak.
Broadcom Inc. led the advance following a report that the chipmaker was working on an AI deal with Apple Inc.
The so-called Magnificent Seven stocks were once again in the pole position, with Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc., setting all-time highs.
Wall Street’s optimism comes even as inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank’s target.
The consumer price index rose 0.3% in November for the fourth-straight month, while core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose by the same amount, Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed Wednesday.
The core gauge —economists’ preferred number — was up 3.3% from a year before, in line with estimates.
To Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, the report “gives the Federal Reserve the green light for a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting, as it helps to confirm that we are still making progress on inflation even though it remains sticky.”
Swaps traders are betting on a quarter-point interest rate cut at the December policy meeting while wagers on more than three cuts over the next 12 months remains a key question.
Treasury yields resumed a climb in the afternoon session with the benchmark 10-year rising to 4.27%.
“The details were particularly encouraging for the Fed,” according to Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets. “From here, there is little ahead of tomorrow’s PPI update that will drive the rates market.”
Wall Street’s fear gauge, the Vix, fell below 14 following the data, an indication the market is expecting calm in the near-term.
Stocks and long bonds stand to benefit as fears of a higher inflation print evaporate, according to ClearBridge Investments’ Jeff Schulze.
“The debate for the FOMC next week between cut or skip is over,” Schulze said. “This inflation print should be risk-asset friendly and provide a tailwind to equity markets as we move through one of the strongest seasonal periods of the year.”
The dollar rallied after a report that Chinese leaders are considering allowing their currency to weaken as they brace for higher tariffs under a second Donald Trump presidency.
The Canadian dollar advanced after hovering near a four and a half-year low once policymakers signaled they were ready to slow down on monetary easing.
The Bank of Canada lowered its rate by half a percentage Wednesday, its second straight outsized cut.
Other central banks are also expected to lower rates, and in some cases cut faster and deeper than the Fed.
The European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank are likely to follow suit Thursday.
Meanwhile, China’s two-day Central Economic Work Conference is expected to map out policies for next year, following stimulus signals from top leaders.
In commodities, crude futures rose after a Bloomberg News report that the Biden administration is considering new sanctions on Russia’s oil trade, a move that could tighten the market.
The White House warned that Russia may fire another intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine, after what Moscow said were strikes on its territory with US-supplied weapons. 

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. is developing a server chip designed especially for artificial intelligence and is working with Broadcom on the chip’s networking technology, the Information reported, citing a person with direct knowledge of the project.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. and CVS Health Corp. were among health-care companies under pressure after Bloomberg reported a bipartisan coalition of US lawmakers has drafted legislation that would force prescription drug middlemen to divest pharmacies they own.
* Hershey Co.’s main owner has rejected a preliminary takeover offer from Mondelez International Inc., people familiar with the matter said, potentially ending a fresh pursuit that would’ve created a food giant with combined sales of almost $50 billion.
* GameStop Corp. shares rise after the videogame retailer reported a surprise third-quarter profit as the company’s cost cutting measures pay dividends.
* Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. shares fall as analysts questioned the probability of Sycamore Partners acquiring the pharmacy chain. On Tuesday, the stock jumped 18% after a report the two sides were in talks over a potential sale.
* PJT Partners Inc.’s chief executive officer said next year could be the second-biggest for mergers and acquisitions in a decade, and his firm has been on an “aggressive” hiring spree to prepare.

Key events this week:
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0495
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2749
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 152.58 per dollar
* The Canadian dollar rose 0.1% to 1.4162
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.5% to $101,318.11
* Ether rose 5.3% to $3,833.31
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.27%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.13%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.32%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.5% to $70.30 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,716.89 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sujata Rao, Margaryta Kirakosian, Robert Brand and John Viljoen.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Better three hours too soon than a minute too late. –William Shakespeare, 1564-1616.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

December 10, 1901: The first ever Nobel Prize ceremony takes place in Stockholm, honoring achievements in physics, chemistry, medicine, literature, and peace.  It set a global standard for excellence.
December 10, 1998: Six astronauts opened the doors to the new international space station. Go to article.

Alfred Noble, d. 1896.
Emily Dickinson, poet, b. 1830.
Red Cloud, Lakota Chief, d. 1909.

1973: CBGB opens in New York City.

77:
That’s how many Nobel Prize winners signed a letter urging the US Senate to oppose Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. The letter cites Kennedy’s opposition to vaccines, his criticism of the fluoridation of drinking water, his promotion of AIDS conspiracy theories and his criticism of HHS agencies, such as the FDA and the CDC.

Golden Globes 2025: See the full list of nominees
The nominees for the 82nd Golden Globe Awards, honoring the best in television and film, were announced Monday. See which shows and movies earned the most nominations.

Why is New Orleans banning shiny balloons and confetti?
New Orleans, known for its celebrations and festive spirit, is now banning the release of metallic balloons following repeated disruptions to the city’s electrical services. Some residents are not so jazzed about the new rules.

See inside a 155 mph sleeper train connecting Hong Kong and Beijing
CNN takes a trip on the new service from Beijing which offers a perfect weekend getaway. Watch the video here.

‘An existential threat affecting billions’: Three-quarters of Earth’s land became permanently drier in last 3 decades
Climate change is causing unprecedented drying across the Earth — and five billion people could be affected by 2100, a new UN report has warned. Read More.

‘It explains why our ability to focus has gone to hell’: Screens are assaulting our Stone Age brains with more information than we can handle
Modern technology has fundamentally changed how our ancient minds work. Read More.

New thunderstorms wider than Earth are spewing out green lightning on Jupiter — and could make one of the gas giant’s massive bands disappear
A pair of massive thunderstorms have been spotted swirling in Jupiter’s “South Equatorial Belt” and are likely unleashing massive bolts of green lightning. Some experts think the pale clouds could end up altering the rusty band’s color — and potentially even making it “disappear.”

Ancient ‘land bridge’ that connected Siberia to US wasn’t what it seems, scientists find
The boggy landscape of the Bering land bridge may have allowed some ice age animals to cross easily, while others stayed in Asia.

How long does it take to travel to the moon?
The answer depends on many factors, including the amount of fuel needed, the moon’s orbit and the mission’s objectives.

What is the universe expanding into if it’s already infinite?
The universe is constantly expanding, but how do scientists think about what it’s expanding into?

Possible bust of Cleopatra VII found at ancient Egyptian temple
A small statue of a woman wearing a royal crown may depict Cleopatra VII, an archaeologist claims. Other archaeologists think it is likely someone else.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The Nutcracker ballet in Nairobi – in pictures
The beloved Christmas ballet, with music by Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky, was first performed in 1892. Known for its enchanting score and festive themes, it has become a holiday tradition worldwide
Senior company members of Dance Centre Kenya perform during The Nutcracker at the Kenya National Theatre in Nairobi Photograph: Luis Tato/AFP/Getty Images

Shetland, UK
‘A rail of traditional jumpers to choose from in Lerwick. What a choice of colours and designs. Warmth and style … what more could you ask for?’
Photograph: Lynne Falconer

​​​​​​​Northumberland, UK
‘I took this picture outside my studio during Storm Bert. It shows my sculpture Moot, which is carved in wood and has a plethora of little gouged marks that became indistinguishable from the blizzard.’
Photograph: Joseph Hillier
Market Closes for December 10, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44247.83	-154.10
		-0.35%
S&P 500	6034.91	-17.94
		-0.30%
NASDAQ	19687.24	-49.45
		-0.25%
TSX	25504.33	-121.09
		-0.47%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39307.91	-59.67
		-0.15%
HANG SENG	20311.28	-102.81
		-0.50%
SENSEX	81510.05	+1.59
		—
FTSE 100*	8280.36	-71.72
		-0.86%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.018	3.037
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.156	3.171
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2263	4.1973
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4175	4.3867

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7056	0.7055
US $	1.4172	1.4173

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4924	0.6701
US $	1.0530	0.9496

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2671.90	2637.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.59	68.37

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1929, Charles Schwab, chairman of Bethlehem Steel, argued that the stock-market crash meant “nothing in the welfare of business. Wealth was founded on the industries of the nation, and while they are sound, stocks may go up and stocks may go down, but the nation will prosper,” he said.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.5%, or 121.09 to 25,504.33 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on Nov. 15.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.6%.
Torex Gold Resources Inc. had the largest drop, falling 4.9%.
Today, 159 of 219 shares fell, while 58 rose; 10 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 6.3%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 30% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.3% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 26.7% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.04t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.40% compared with 8.26% in the previous session and the average of 8.52% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -37.3456| -1.4| 2/8
Energy | -25.0224| -0.6| 10/31
Financials | -17.5789| -0.2| 8/18
Materials | -17.0573| -0.6| 16/33
Industrials | -7.6859| -0.2| 7/20
Utilities | -5.1701| -0.5| 7/8
Consumer Staples | -4.6055| -0.5| 3/6
Real Estate | -4.4832| -0.9| 1/19
Communication Services | -4.3068| -0.7| 1/4
Health Care | -1.1382| -1.5| 0/4
Consumer Discretionary | 3.3067| 0.4| 3/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -22.1500| -1.6| 7.2| 55.9
Constellation Software | -10.6200| -1.6| -9.3| 40.8
Manulife Financial | -8.8520| -1.6| -0.5| 52.2
CIBC | 2.6450| 0.4| 53.1| 47.7
Dollarama | 4.1560| 1.5| -12.7| 48.9
TD Bank | 8.0820| 0.9| 15.9| -12.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell and bond yields rose, with Wall Street traders gearing up for inflation data that will help determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut or hold rates next week.
Just a day ahead of the consumer price index, the S&P 500 pushed further away from its all-time highs.
Oracle Corp. tumbled on uninspiring results.
Meantime, a gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega-caps climbed 1%, led by Alphabet Inc. as analysts applauded the Google parent’s announcement of a major development in quantum computing through the use of its Willow quantum chip.
Homebuilders got hit as Toll Brothers Inc.’s profit-margin projection fell short of estimates, “Animal spirits take a breather ahead of CPI,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
“US stocks are stalling near all-time highs as investors await this year’s final CPI report, which is expected to reflect another increase in the annualized headline figure.”
Wednesday’s CPI will offer Fed officials a final look at the pricing environment ahead of their next meeting.
Any indication that inflation progress has stalled could well undercut the chances of a rate cut. For now, swap trading projects an 80% chance of a quarter-point Fed reduction this month.
The market is pricing in the smallest implied reaction to CPI since 2021, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, who argue the readout will matter more this time.
“A softer print can clear the path for a year-end rally, with the second half of December being the second strongest period of the year,” a team led by Ohsung Kwon said.
“On the contrary, a firmer print can revamp volatility,” particularly after the post-election rally.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3%.
Treasury 10-year yields rose two basis points to 4.22%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1%.
“Upward momentum wanes as investors trim some profits ahead of upcoming inflation data,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“Primary uptrends remain intact, underpinned by bullish market breadth. Use pullbacks that confirm support levels as buying opportunities, particularly among leading sectors.”
CPI figures on Wednesday are expected to show a fourth straight 0.3% increase in the consumer price index excluding food and fuel.
The data will be the last major inflation data point before the Fed’s final policy meeting of the year.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 37% of investors expect the market reaction to CPI to be “risk-off.”
There is an even split between the percentage of investors who bet the reaction will be “risk-on” and “mixed/negligible.”
Moreover, the 22V tally revealed that 61% of investors believe that core CPI is on a “Fed-friendly” glide path —without a significant tightening of financial conditions or a recession.
This is the highest value since February.
And 37% say financial conditions need to tighten.
That compares with last month’s 45%.
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, one metric to watch is year-over- year core CPI, which has been at 3.3% in each of the last two months.
Current expectations again call for 3.3%.
“An in-line or lower reading likely cements a rate cut, while a higher-than-expected result could create some doubt over whether the Fed should cut rates again,” he noted.
The Fed is focused on both maintaining full employment and inflation, which has stubbornly stalled in the 3% range after a steep decline in 2022 and 2023, according to Matthew Weller at Forex.com and City Index.
“Nonetheless, the majority of Fed speakers in recent weeks have indicated that the central bank is on track to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming December meeting, even if that perspective isn’t necessarily unanimous at this point,” he noted.
Win Thin and Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. say that if the Fed does indeed reduces rates, it will be a “hawkish cut” that sets up a pause in January — and perhaps beyond.
A Bloomberg Economics nowcast supports expectations of a sticky core reading, while flagging downside risk to the headline measure.
“More worrying for policymakers, inflation looks set to hover uncomfortably above target through next year, with another of our models pointing to a rebound in demand drivers,”
according to Scott Johnson at BE.
BE’s model of the broad economic factors influencing US inflation holds mixed signals for the Fed.
Disinflationary supply shocks have helped drive inflation below its long-run average in recent months, but factors related to demand are now pushing the other way, after fading over the past year.
“Our US team sees the Fed moving more cautiously in the face of ‘animal spirits’ unleashed by the presidential election,” Jonhson said.
To Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets, elevated equity prices are unlikely to factor into the Fed’s policy decision next week.
“After all, if concerns related to the wealth effect fueling inflation haven’t had a material influence on the Fed thus far in the cycle, there isn’t going to be a tone shift now that stocks have the added boost of a business-friendly election outcome,” they said.
All that market bullishness on equities can be somewhat of a contrarian signal to Birinyi Associates’ Jeffrey Yale Rubin, who said it makes him “uneasy” about a further S&P 500 advance.
“Last year, we were lonely (and preferred it that way) in our bullish view which we articulated in the January edition of Reminiscences: ‘We want to own stocks because we are in a bull market and in a bull market that is what you do, you own stocks’,” Rubin said. “While we remain positive heading into 2025, we are uneasy given the bullish company.”
Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott says technical gauges suggest some caution into year-end.
“We are currently seeing/hearing a tremendous amount of bullishness ramping up for 2025- from strategist reports, economist forecasts, and from the investment community in general,” he said.
“This, in our opinion, may at some point become a contrarian indicator, as many areas of the markets remain overbought heading into the new year.”

Corporate Highlights:
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it now expects its net interest income haul to beat expectations for next year, reversing earlier guidance that analysts were being too optimistic.
* Boeing Co. said it has resumed assembly of its bestselling aircraft after a debilitating 53-day long strike, with November deliveries coming in at the lowest in four years.
* Sycamore Partners is in talks to acquire struggling drugstore chain Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* C3.ai Inc., a data-analysis software company, reported quarterly revenue that topped estimates and raising its full-year sales forecast.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s sales rose 34% in November, reflecting sustained growth from AI demand despite concerns that data center building will slow.
* Alaska Air Group Inc., the owner of its namesake carrier and Hawaiian Airlines, laid out plans for a dramatic global expansion while boosting its profit forecast.
* Eli Lilly & Co. approved a program to buy back as much as $15 billion of its own shares amid rapid growth fueled in part by the blockbuster weight-loss drug Zepbound. The company also raised its quarterly dividend 15%.
* Designer Brands Inc., the parent company of footwear and accessories chain DSW, cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
* MongoDB Inc., a database software company, reported third-quarter results and announced the departure of its Chief Financial Officer Michael Gordon. While analysts noted the strong results, Guggenheim said the departure was not a positive.

Key events this week:
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0526
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2772
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 151.92 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $96,524.56
* Ether fell 1.5% to $3,646.5
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.22%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.12%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.32%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 1.2% to $2,691.97 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Don’t lie, don’t cheat, don’t steal, don’t whine, don’t complain, don’t make excuses;
worry about the things you can control, and not the things you can’t. –John Wooden, 1910-2010.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

December 9, 1979: the World Health Organization declares the eradication of smallpox.  This marked a historic triumph, eliminating a disease that killed millions and shaping global health efforts.
December 9, 2002:  United Airlines filed the biggest bankruptcy in aviation history after losing $4 billion in the previous two years. Go to article

Remembering all your passwords is hard. Let’s make it easier
In the latest podcast episode of “Terms of Service” with CNN Tech Writer Clare Duffy, a cybersecurity expert shares the safest way to Ctrl your passwords and protect yourself from hackers.

Juan Soto agrees to historic deal with the New York Mets
Superstar outfielder Juan Soto and the New York Mets have agreed to a historic 15-year and $765 million deal, according to multiple reports. The contract is reportedly not only the biggest in MLB history but in all professional sports.

Parents are up against the ‘mother lode’ of holiday stress
From high gift expectations to countless festive events, it’s common for parents to feel stress around the holidays. Here are tips to make the season more manageable.

16: That’s how many Pearl Harbor survivors are believed to be alive. On Saturday, thousands of people gathered on the shores of Pearl Harbor to mark the 83rd anniversary of the bombing in 1941. A ceremony was held to honor service members who lived through the Great Depression and fought in World War II.

You have created such a space of joy and togetherness and love.  — Taylor Swift, thanking her fans after performing the final concert of the Eras Tour on Sunday in Vancouver. The official figures of how much money the tour grossed have not been released but it’s been estimated that it will make over $2 billion, making it the highest-grossing tour in history. The current record-holder is Elton John, whose Farewell Yellow Brick Road tour grossed over $900 million.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Waves crash into the Mumbles headland near Swansea
Photograph: Phil Rees/Rex/Shutterstock

Antibes, Côte d’Azur, France
‘I was particularly struck by this ethereal sculpture by Nicolas Lavarenne. Its balletic pose on the sea wall seems to defy gravity and gives a different impression from every angle.’
Photograph: Stephen Hallett

​​​​​​​Granada, Spain
‘The beauty of mathematics at the Nasrid Palaces in the Alhambra complex.’
Photograph: Nalini Iyanger
Market Closes for December 9, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44401.93	-240.59
		-0.54%
S&P 500	6052.85	-37.42
		-0.61%
NASDAQ	19736.69	-123.08
		-0.62%
TSX	25625.42	-66.38
		-0.26%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39273.02	+112.52
		+0.29%
HANG SENG	20414.09	+548.24
		+2.76%
SENSEX	81508.46	-200.66
		-0.25%
FTSE 100*	8352.08	+43.47
		+0.52%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.037	2.979
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.171	3.106
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1973	4.1529
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3867	4.3359

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7055	0.7065
US $	1.4173	1.4154

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4956	0.6686
US $	1.0552	0.9477

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2637.30	2640.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	68.37	68.30

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1931: President Herbert Hoover proposed the creation of the Reconstruction Finance Corp. to provide federal funding to help creditworthy banks, railroads and other companies remain in business. The market viewed it as an act of desperation, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 2.7%.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 25,625.42 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on Nov. 15 and follows the previous session’s little change.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.5%.
Bird Construction Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.1%.
Today, 94 of 219 shares fell, while 123 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 22%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 6.8%
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 31% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.3% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 3.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.05t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.26% compared with 8.19% in the previous session and the average of 8.52% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -37.1758| -0.9| 25/15
Information Technology | -36.5712| -1.4| 4/6
Financials | -22.8908| -0.3| 10/16
Industrials | -22.2927| -0.7| 11/16
Utilities | -13.1970| -1.3| 3/12
Real Estate | -2.9762| -0.6| 5/14
Communication Services | -0.7730| -0.1| 2/3
Health Care | 1.1496| 1.5| 3/1
Consumer Staples | 2.1046| 0.2| 8/2
Consumer Discretionary | 3.8130| 0.5| 8/3
Materials | 62.4320| 2.1| 44/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -35.0500| -2.5| -30.2| 58.4
Bank of Montreal | -17.5400| -2.3| -30.8| 9.0
Enbridge | -15.2700| -1.6| -24.6| 25.9
National Bank of | | | |
Canada | 6.1330| 1.9| -4.1| 34.0
Teck Resources | 8.6840| 4.2| 55.6| 19.4
TD Bank | 13.5900| 1.5| 51.3| -12.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks retreated after a rally that put the market on pace for its best year since 2019, with traders awaiting key inflation data that will help shape the outlook for Federal Reserve rates.
The S&P 500 dropped from nearly overbought technical levels, following a series of all-time highs.
Nvidia Corp. slid as China opened a probe over suspicions the giant US chipmaker broke anti-monopoly laws around a 2020 deal.
Meantime, Chinese stocks that are listed in the US staged a sharp rally as top leaders in Beijing used their most direct language yet on providing monetary easing and boosting domestic consumption.
Data including Wednesday’s consumer price index will offer Fed officials a final look at the pricing environment ahead of their meeting the following week.
Any indication that progress has stalled on the inflation front could well undercut the chances of a third straight reduction in rates.
“This Wednesday’s inflation data may hold the key to the Fed’s next move,” said Jay Woods at Freedom Capital Markets. “So far results have been in line with economists’ expectations and
haven’t scared the market. However, an upward surprise should raise eyebrows at the Fed and could put another rate cut on pause.”
To Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley, only a dramatic CPI increase would prevent the Fed from cutting rates in December.
The S&P 500 fell 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 slid 1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4%.
Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.19%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index wavered.
Oil climbed as China signaled bolder stimulus for next year, with traders also keeping an eye on developments in the Middle East.
“On the CPI and other inflation metrics, progress has stalled in recent months,” said Greg McBride at Bankrate. “This upcoming release will be closely scrutinized to see if there is evidence of renewed inflation pressures or signs of further improvement. “The rate of inflation has moderated significantly from a peak of 9 percent in 2022, but remains well above the target of 2%.”
The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists calls for a fourth consecutive 0.3% month-over-month increase in the November core CPI, which excludes food and energy for a better snapshot of underlying inflation.
On an annual basis, the core measure probably rose 3.3% for a third month.
“That sort of pace is riding the edge of acceptable inflation levels, highlighting the importance of this week’s release, said Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds at Glenmede. “The Fed is likely leaning toward a 25 basis-point rate cut next week, but only if it is reasonably confident that inflation issues are not re-emerging.”
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, those seeing an inflationary boom keeping the Fed from lowering policy rates can’t use the labor market to press their case.
“A continued cooling in the labor market keeps monetary easing in place,” he noted.
“While the start of Fed easing, the clearing of election uncertainty and ‘animal spirits’ have sustained the bull market, investors have more recently been inundated with arguments linked to market technicals,” said Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “It is generally good advice to never ‘fight the Fed’ or ‘the tape’.”
She bets positive technicals and seasonality may power US equities another 5%-10%.
“While bears argue that the year-end rally reflects stalling trading volume or ‘window dressing’ by market participants, bulls highlight favorable seasonal tailwinds, calm risk factors, and a supportive fundamental backdrop,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “This optimism, coupled with resilient November jobs data, has helped major equity indexes reach new record highs despite lingering concerns about Fed policy, labor
market risks, and geopolitical unrest.”
The S&P 500 will extend its record-setting rally to 7,100 by the end of next year amid a strong economy, according to Oppenheimer Asset Management, whose outlook is now the most bullish among peers.
Fundamentals “suggest the current resilience of the economy and the stock market appear poised to continue into next year,” the firm’s Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus wrote in a note.
Citigroup Inc. strategists expect mid-single-digit gains for the S&P 500 in 2025 amid increasing volatility, fueled by a soft landing of the US economy, artificial intelligence and Donald Trump’s policy promises.
Their base-case target is 6,500 points for the S&P 500.
The upper scenario is set at 6,900 and lower at 5,100; both the bull- and bear-case scenarios “frame an expectation for increased volatility,” the strategists wrote.
Post-election euphoria and seasonal tailwinds set US equities up for a banner autumn, and so far the positive fall performance is a sign gains can continue even when the calendar year turns, if history is any guide.
Since 1930, after better-than-usual returns in November and December, the S&P 500 has posted a median 3% gain in the subsequent first quarter and has risen more than two thirds of the time, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s strategists Gina Martin Adams and Michael Casper.
That means the US stock benchmark’s nearly 6% advance last month is helping set the index up for more upside in January, so long as stocks continue their climb over the next few weeks.
Hedge funds net bought US equities for the first time in four weeks with macro products, such as indexes and exchange-traded funds, making up nearly 90% of the net buying, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. prime brokerage desk’s report for the week through Dec. 6.
Single stocks were modestly net bought, with long buys slightly outpacing short sales.
Hedge funds net bought information technology stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks, though the sector is still net sold over the past month.
Industrials was the most net sold sector with last week’s notional short selling being the largest in more than two years.
Buyside US equity futures positioning has moved slightly lower after hitting a new all-time high, while some investors expect see a “significant pullback” on the horizon, according to strategists at RBC Capital Markets led by Lori Calvasina.
Investor exposure to stocks remains above average, but is not at extreme levels, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists led by Parag Thatte.
Exposure of discretionary investors has pulled back after the post-election surge but remains elevated, they noted.
Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech stocks is elevated, while the gap between cyclicals and defensives has closed.
Exposure to small caps is near the top of its historical band.

Corporate Highlights:
* Another activist investor — Barington Capital Group — is urging Macy’s Inc. to take drastic steps to boost its stock price.
* T-Mobile US Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mike Sievert warned investors to “be cautious” about the telecom company’s fourth-quarter results, which will be “back-end loaded.”
* A Morgan Stanley analyst admits he missed the boat on Reddit Inc.’s huge post-initial public offering gains. Yet he feels there’s still time to jump aboard.
* Mondelez International Inc., the snacks and sweets company, is exploring an acquisition of iconic US chocolate maker Hershey Co., in a potential deal that would create a food giant with combined sales of almost $50 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
* MicroStrategy Inc. bought another $2.1 billion in Bitcoin while its combination of equity and fixed-income securities sales to finance the rapidly increasing acquisitions draws increased scrutiny.
* Apollo Global Management Inc. has been added to the S&P 500 in the latest quarterly weighting change, joining alternative asset manager Blackstone Inc. on the world’s most-watched equity gauge. Workday Inc. has been included too.
** The two companies will replace Qorvo Inc. and Amentum Holdings Inc. The changes are set to go into effect prior to the open of trading on Dec. 23.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. reached an early renewal of an agreement to provide networks such as TNT and CNN to Comcast Corp.’s roughly 12.8 million cable-TV customers.
* Nippon Steel Corp. clarified its spending plans at US mills owned by United States Steel Corp. as part of last-ditch efforts to win over workers and politicians for its bid to buy the Pittsburgh-based steelmaker.

Key events this week:
* China trade, Tuesday
* Australia rate decision, Tuesday
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 3:06 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0554
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2752
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 151.26 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.9% to $97,174.71
* Ether fell 5% to $3,793.84
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.20%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.12%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.27%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $68.24 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $2,659.04 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Few rich men own their property. Their property owns them. -Robert Ingersoll, 1833-1899.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com