Category: Events

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday. ☺
February 24, 1582: The Gregorian Calendar is introduced by Pope Gregory XIII, reforming the Julian calendar and leading to the system most widely used today.
February 24, 1821: Mexico declared its independence from Spain. Go to article.

George Harrison, musician, b. 1943
Steve Jobs, founder of Appe, b.1955.

‘Just the tip of the iceberg’: Why risky asteroids like 2024 YR4 will pester Earth for decades to come
The world is watching as NASA tweaks the odds that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Earth. But how threatening is YR4, and how does it compare to other potentially hazardous space rocks? Read More.

Humanoid ‘Protoclone’ robot twitches into action while hanging from ceiling in viral video
Protoclone, an eerily lifelike humanoid robot built for home use, has left social media users aghast. And it’s likely to be the first of many. Read More.

Muscular kangaroos aren’t the only daunting creatures Down Under. Wait until you learn about the cassowary — a massive bird as tall as a person with a large dagger-like claw on each foot

Adults may want to consider revisiting their childhood hobbies, according to a psychologist
There’s a reason you feel drawn to your childhood activities. And you might be surprised at the benefits playfulness adds to your life.

New York Mets’ Juan Soto hits 426-foot homer after signing biggest contract in American sports
Juan Soto’s first at-bat for the New York Mets gave some indication as to why they signed him to one of the biggest contracts in American sports history.

Why there’s an upside-down American flag hanging in Yosemite
The flag was reportedly hung over the side of El Capitan as a sign of protest by employees at Yosemite National Park. Here’s what we know.

MSNBC cancels Joy Reid’s evening show in major programming shakeup
Co-hosts from MSNBC’s “The Weekend” are expected to take over Joy Reid’s 7 p.m. evening timeslot.

RIP Roberta Flack

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Antequera, Spain
Hudson Bay wolves in an enclosure at the Lobo Park near Malaga. Iberian, European and Hudson Bay wolves live in huge enclosures at the park
Photograph: Jorge Guerrero/AFP/Getty

Birmingham, UK
Birmingham Royal Ballet dancers during a dress rehearsal at the Hippodrome
Photograph: Katja Ogrin/Getty Images

Bordeaux, France
A visitor attends the preview of Egypt of the Pharaohs, an exhibition at Bassins des Lumières, the largest digital art centre in the world
Photograph: Philippe Lopez/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 24, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43461.21	+33.19
		+0.08%
S&P 500	5983.25	-29.88
		-0.50%
NASDAQ	19286.93	-237.08
		-1.21%
TSX	25151.26	+4.23
		+0.02%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38170.50	-606.44
		-1.56%
HANG SENG	23341.61	-136.31
		-0.58%
SENSEX	74454.41	-856.65
		-1.14%
FTSE 100*	8658.98	-0.39
		—

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.073	3.108
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.272	3.296
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.3868	4.4313
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6424	4.6785

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7005	0.7025
US $	1.4275	1.4234

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4933	0.6696
US $	1.0461	0.9559

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2934.15	2932.05
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.91	70.58

Market Commentary:
Always sell half o a double. –Yale Hirsch, 1923-2021.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 25,151.26 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.4%.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 5 of 11 sectors gained; 121 of 220 shares rose, while 97 fell.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
Eldorado Gold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 5.7%.
Insights
* This month, the index fell 1.5%
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.8% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 18.4% above its low on Feb. 28, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.3% in the past 5 days and fell 1.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 18.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.06t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.95% compared with 11.38% in the previous session and the average of 11.04% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 22.6485| 0.7| 30/19
Consumer Staples | 17.5706| 1.9| 10/0
Consumer Discretionary | 15.1242| 1.9| 10/1
Communication Services | 3.9456| 0.6| 5/0
Financials | 2.2788| 0.0| 18/7
Real Estate | -1.3831| -0.3| 8/11
Health Care | -1.6040| -2.2| 1/3
Information Technology | -3.6055| -0.1| 5/5
Utilities | -3.6745| -0.4| 4/11
Industrials | -15.6729| -0.5| 20/8
Energy | -31.3921| -0.8| 10/32
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 8.0520| 1.7| -20.3| 23.7
Dollarama | 7.7690| 2.8| 36.4| 5.0
Restaurant Brands | 5.4470| 2.7| 9.9| -2.8
Brookfield Corp | -11.3600| -1.4| -15.2| 0.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -11.3900| -1.8| 191.9| -5.6
Canadian National | -14.5900| -2.5| 28.4| -1.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A slide in most mega caps hit stocks in the final stretch of US trading, with Wall Street gearing up for a pulse check from Nvidia Corp. on the artificial-intelligence technology that has powered the bull market.
The S&P 500 broke below 6,000 and the Nasdaq 100 lost over 1%.
Just days before Nvidia’s earnings, hedge funds’ net exposure to “Magnificent Seven” mega caps hit the lowest since April 2023.
The chipmaker lost 3.1%.
Microsoft Corp. fell as an analyst said the software giant dropped some AI data-center leases.
Apple Inc. rose.
Just ahead of Nvidia’s results Wednesday, hedge funds’ net exposure to “Magnificent Seven” mega caps hit the lowest since April 2023.
Investors have started to boost bets that volatility will come back as Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday could be the first in a whirlwind of events with the potential to send the market into conniptions.
“There is very little room for Nvidia to disappoint analyst profit expectations this year, given its assumed leadership position in AI, already elevated valuations, and new developments and entrants in the space that could threaten its dominance over time,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
The S&P 500 lost 0.5%.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average wavered.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid three basis points to 4.4%.
Bonds remained higher after a $69 billion sale of two-year notes drew record demand.
Canada’s dollar and Mexico’s peso fell as President Donald Trump expects tariffs planned to take effect on both countries to go ahead next month.
“The market is churning sideways, driven by investor confusion, a natural consolidation period following recent gains, and seasonal weakness in February,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“However, the strong macro backdrop, robust earnings, and healthy fund flows argue for a breakout to the upside once momentum returns.”
Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech remains very elevated heading into Nvidia’s earnings release due this week, in the 97th percentile and well above levels implied by earnings growth, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Parag Thatte.
Fourth-quarter earnings are on pace to significantly exceed earnings estimates across capitalizations — nearly doubling the pre-season forecasts — but it hasn’t been enough to satisfy investors as stocks are responding with unusually sour returns, according to Gina Martin Adams and Wendy Soong at Bloomberg Intelligence.
“Disappointments in guidance, revisions and operating margin all share the blame,” the strategists noted.
“Nvidia could still move the needle as the large-cap season wraps up.”
US equities won’t remain unpopular for long given the robust outlook for economic growth and corporate earnings, according to some of Wall Street’s top strategists.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson — a bearish voice on US stocks until mid-2024 — said he expects capital to return to US stocks, calling the S&P 500 “the highest quality index” with “the best earnings growth prospects.”
“It’s premature to conclude the rotation away from the US is sustainable,” Wilson wrote in a note.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Mislav Matejka said a more subdued outlook for big tech was indeed a “meaningful impediment” for a renewed US outperformance more broadly.
However, US earnings growth would need to undershoot the rest of the world to support an outright bearish view, he added.
“Recent economic and survey data do raise some warning flags, but S&P 500 companies delivered strong growth along with continued record profitability last quarter,” said Scott Helfstein at Global X.
“Fundamentals will ultimately win out, but waning sentiment could well lead broad equity indexes sideways for a little while.”
Following double-digit returns for US equities over the past two years, and with valuations now incredibly expensive, investors are increasingly concerned about whether markets have peaked, according to Christian Floro at Principal Asset Management.
“Bull markets don’t just die of old age, however, and history suggests that the Federal Reserve tends to play an outsized role in determining the prevailing market regime based on its monetary policy stance,” he noted.
Most market selloffs larger than 10% since 1965 were triggered by either the Fed pivoting aggressively to a hawkish stance or the Fed staying restrictive for too long, he said.
Floro noted that the current macroeconomic landscape differs meaningfully from past market peaks, particularly as data show little sign of a hard landing.
“A narrow but viable path remains for markets to grind higher, especially if earnings growth continues to deliver as expected,” he noted.
“However, uncertainty around future policy decisions poses a significant risk.  Prudent investors should remain vigilant, balancing optimism with a strategic approach to risk in today’s evolving market environment.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc., as it seeks relief from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on goods imported from China, said that it will hire 20,000 new workers and produce AI servers in the US.
* Microsoft Corp. has canceled some leases for US data center capacity, according to TD Cowen, raising broader concerns over whether it’s securing more AI computing capacity than it needs in the long term.
* Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s operating earnings surged 71% in the fourth quarter, as higher interest rates lifted the conglomerate’s investment income and its insurance business improved.
* Starbucks Corp. is eliminating 1,100 corporate jobs in a move aimed at increasing efficiency and quickly enacting changes to revitalize the company.
* Domino’s Pizza Inc.’s US sales rose less than expected in the fourth quarter, highlighting the mounting challenge to appeal to cash-strapped Americans.
* Boeing Co. has hired an adviser to market a defense subsidiary that manufactures small, long-range military drones as the plane maker looks to unload businesses that aren’t central to its core commercial and defense operations, according to people familiar with the talks.
* Apollo Global Management Inc. agreed to buy Bridge Investment Group Holdings Inc. for about $1.5 billion in an all-stock deal as the asset manager expands in real estate.
* Strategy, the self-styled Bitcoin treasury company that until recently was known as MicroStrategy, said it acquired $1.99 billion more of the cryptocurrency with the proceeds from last week’s convertible bond sale.

Key events this week:
* US consumer confidence, Tuesday
* Fed’s Lorie Logan, Tom Barkin, Michael Barr speak, Tuesday
* Apple shareholder meeting, Tuesday
* US new home sales, Wednesday
* Nvidia earnings, Wednesday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic speaks, Wednesday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
* US GDP, durable goods, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Jeff Schmid, Beth Hammack, Patrick Harker, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales, Friday
* US PCE inflation, income and spending, Friday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0462
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2619
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 149.76 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.9% to $93,977.75
* Ether fell 5.9% to $2,642.2
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.40%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.48%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.56%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $70.83 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,950.91 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Sujata Rao, Lynn Thomasson, Robert Brand and Catherine Bosley

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. –Steve Jobs, 1955-2011.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Fri -yeah!

February 21, 1925: New Yorker Magazine debuts.
February 21, 1916: Battle of Verdun in France – over 1 million men killed.
February 21, 1947: Edwin Land demonstrates the first “instant camera” – the Polaroid Land Camera, to the Optical Society of America in New York City, revolutionizing photography by producing a developed photograph in about 60 seconds.
On Feb. 21, 1965, former Black Muslim leader Malcolm X was shot and killed by assassins identified as Black Muslims as he was about to address a rally in New York City; he was 39.   Go to article

Andres Segovia, guitarist, b. 1893.
Anais Nin, writer, b.1903.
W.H. Auden, poet/writer, b. 1907.

Decapitated woman found in Irish bog is 2,000-year-old ritual sacrifice
A bog body discovered in Northern Ireland is actually a young woman, not a teenage boy as previously thought. Read More

Evolution itself can evolve, new study argues
A new computer model suggests that the process of evolution can get better at evolving in the face of environmental change. Read More.

Scientists may have just discovered 300 of the rarest black holes in the universe
How black holes grow to monstrous scales is one of astronomy’s prevailing enigmas. A new record-breaking dataset, which reveals 300 potential ‘missing link black holes’, could help to unravel it. Read More.

AI-designed chips are so weird that ‘humans cannot really understand them’ — but they perform better than anything we’ve created
AI models have, within hours, created more efficient wireless chips through deep learning, but it is unclear how their ‘randomly shaped’ designs were produced. Read More.

Stunning images from the Underwater Photographer of the Year contest
Fighting fish, thirsty camels and hairy shrimp are all featured among the winning images of the Underwater Photographer of the Year competition.

A survival tale
In this short video, a 24-year-old kayaker described what happened when he was briefly swallowed by a humpback whale.

USA vs. Canada
Canada’s men’s hockey team beat Team USA in an overtime thriller Thursday to win the inaugural 4 Nations Face-off championship.

Can shoes be art?
Germany’s Federal Court of Justice is wrestling whether or knot a popular shoe can be considered art.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nuuk, Greenland
Children play hockey on an icy surface in the Danish territory’s capital city
Photograph: Emilio Morenatti/AP

Tundra swans, whose natural habitat is the Arctic region, flock to Lake Gala to spend the winter season in Edirne, Turkey
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty

New Delhi, India
Participants drive a 1947 Buick vintage car around India Gate during the ‘21 Gun Salute Concours d’Elegance’
Photograph: Arun Sankar/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 21, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	43428.02	-748.63
		-1.69%
S&P 500	6013.13	-104.39
		-1.71%
NASDAQ	19524.01	-438.35
		-2.20%
TSX	25147.03	-367.05
		-1.44%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38776.94	+98.90
		+0.26%
HANG SENG	23477.92	+900.94
		+3.99%
SENSEX	75311.06	-424.90
		-0.56%
FTSE 100*	8659.37	-3.60
		-0.04%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.108	3.210
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.296	3.385
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4313	4.5033
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6785	4.7448

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7025	0.7057
US $	1.4234	1.4171

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4889	0.6716
US $	1.0461	0.9559

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2932.05	2936.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	70.58	72.25

Market Commentary:
There is one thing stronger than all the armies in the world, and this is an idea whose time has come. –Victor Hugo, 1802-1885.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 1.4%, or 367.05 to 25,147.03 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.2% on Dec. 18.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 170 of 220 shares fell, while 48 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.0%.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 11.3%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss four times. The next day, it declined three times for an average 1.3% and advanced 0.8% once
* This month, the index fell 1.5%
* So far this week, the index fell 1.3%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Dec. 20
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.8% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 19.2% above its low on Feb. 21, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.12t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.38% compared with 11.12% in the previous session and the average of 11.15% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology| -113.4086| -4.0| 0/10
Materials | -99.0378| -3.1| 4/45
Financials | -72.2210| -0.9| 7/18
Energy | -64.4987| -1.5| 5/38
Industrials | -16.4378| -0.5| 6/22
Consumer Discretionary| -8.6039| -1.1| 3/8
Consumer Staples | -4.1078| -0.4| 5/5
Real Estate | -2.4860| -0.5| 4/15
Health Care | 0.4446| 0.6| 2/2
Utilities | 4.0500| 0.4| 9/5
Communication Services| 9.2575| 1.5| 3/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -89.2000| -6.0| 1.3| 7.5
Manulife Financial | -24.3200| -4.4| -11.9| -2.3
Brookfield Corp | -13.2700| -1.6| 27.1| 1.3
Canadian National | 2.7930| 0.5| -27.1| 1.3
Telus | 3.8700| 1.7| 20.2| 13.9
BCE | 4.4130| 2.1| -9.1| 2.3
US
By Rita Nazareth, Vildana Hajric and Emily Graffeo
(Bloomberg) — Stocks got hit after weaker-than-expected economic data raised concern about the outlook for Corporate America amid a surge in consumers’ long-run inflation views to the highest since 1995.
From consumer sentiment to housing and services, Friday’s readings unsettled investors at a time when the Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut rates.
The S&P 500 lost over 1.5% and bonds rallied.
A notional $2.7 trillion of options tied to equities and ETFs was expected to expire.
That usually amplifies price swings.
Also contributing to the volatility was a rally in Covid-19 vaccine makers as traders shared earlier reports about a new coronavirus study in China.
$2.7 Trillion Option Expiry to ‘Unclench’ Gamma: Equity Insight
To Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services, you put all those factors together when you have a stock market that’s so “richly valued”, and it’s enough for “a little bit of a shakeout.”
At AlphaSimplex Group, Katy Kaminski says it just seems to be a “classic risk-off type of day.”
“Is this the start of the correction?” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“Fears of a weaker economic outlook is dwarfing higher inflation. Add in three people have sent us a new bat virus story. Does anyone want to go into the weekend short Treasuries?”
The S&P 500 fell 1.7%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 2.1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.7%, led by a plunge in UnitedHealth Group Inc.
The Dow transportation index sank 2.6%.
The Russell 2000 dropped 2.9%. A gauge of the Magnificent Seven mega caps lost 2.5%.
A late rally in the Treasury market pushed the yield on 10-year notes lower for a sixth-straight week as traders hunt for safety amid lower stock and oil prices.
The yield on 10-year bonds fell eight basis points to 4.43%.
A dollar gauge rose 0.2%.
“With policy uncertainty and weaker retail sales guidance yesterday from consumer spending bellwether Walmart, we may have the catalyst we need for a healthy correction,” said Gina Bolvin at Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
“However, there’s still a strong foundation in place for the bull market to continue.”
Bolvin said earnings growth is up, and while the Fed may be on a pause, their next move is a cut.
“A cranky consumer may finally rein in spending which will help ease inflation,” she said.
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, equity markets remain in a period of consolidation following an impressive two-year run.
“There is an interesting shift in market leadership, which could propel markets forward, as the risk/reward dynamics in the international and value space catch the eye of investors,” Hackett said.
The majority of similar consolidation phases in US equities have ended with a continuation of the bull market, according to Ed Clissold and Thanh Nguyen at Ned Davis Research.
The 1962 cyclical bear is the most notable exception.
In fact, the average pattern suggests additional consolidation before moving higher, they noted.
“Whether the last 2.5 months are a consolidation phase within an ongoing cyclical bull, or the start of a bear market, depends on inflation, earnings, and other factors,” they said.
“Currently, they support the argument that it is a bull market until proven otherwise.”
Meantime, hedge funds have trimmed net positions on most of the Magnificent Seven stocks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
“The latest filings show hedge funds becoming more selective within popular sectors and themes,” the team including Ben Snider and Jenny Ma wrote.
Despite the trimming, six companies in the group of mega caps still rank among top positions for hedge funds, with the exception being Tesla Inc.
More broadly, short interest for the median S&P 500 stock has also increased to the highest level since 2020, now at 2% of market cap.
European equities attracted the biggest inflows since the war in Ukraine began three years ago, according to a note from Bank of America Corp., underpinned by once-strong optimism around peace negotiations.
About $4 billion flowed into regional funds in the week through Feb. 19, the most since February 2022, the note said citing EPFR Global data.
It also marked a second consecutive week of inflows into Europe.
BofA strategist Michael Hartnett reiterated a preference for global stocks to US peers, saying markets such as Germany, China, Japan and South Korea are more attractive at a time when business activity is improving.
Meanwhile, he warned American markets face a risk from an unexpected slowdown in economic growth.

Corporate Highlights:
* The US Justice Department has been investigating UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s Medicare billing practices, a person familiar with the matter said.
* Coinbase Global Inc. said the Securities and Exchange Commission has agreed to drop its lawsuit that accused the largest US cryptocurrency trading platform of running an illegal exchange. The agreement is pending commissioner approval.
* President Donald Trump told a gathering of governors that Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook promised him that the company’s manufacturing would shift from Mexico to the US during a meeting at the White House this week.
* B. Riley Financial Inc. jumped after the investment and brokerage firm said it has enough cash for the next 12 months, as it continues to navigate a slew of soured investments and cope with upcoming debt payments.
* US prosecutors and regulators are investigating a $32 million deal between CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. and a technology distributor to provide cybersecurity tools to the Internal Revenue Service, according to two people familiar with the matter and a document seen by Bloomberg News.
* Akamai Technologies Inc. tumbled after the infrastructure software company gave an outlook that was weaker than expected.
* Block Inc. plunged after the digital-payments company posted fourth-quarter profit and revenue that fell short of analysts’ forecasts.
* Booking Holdings Inc., the parent to travel brands such as Kayak and Priceline, delivered better-than-expected fourth- quarter results following a bustling holiday season.
* Rivian Automotive Inc. tumbled after warning it’s poised for a first-ever decline in electric-vehicle deliveries in 2025, heralding a new challenge after the company achieved a long-held profitability goal.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.7%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.3%
* Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 2.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2.9%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0461
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2631
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 149.14 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $95,032.25
* Ether fell 3.3% to $2,637.31
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.43%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.47%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.57%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.1% to $70.25 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,934.71 an ounce

–With assistance from Rheaa Rao, Sujata Rao, Macarena Muñoz, Anand Krishnamoorthy and Divya Patil.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward. –Winston Churchill, 1874-1965.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
February 20, 1872: Cyrus W. Baldwin patents the hydraulic electric elevator, introducing a significant advancement in vertical transportation technology.
On Feb. 20, 1962, astronaut John Glenn became the first American to orbit Earth as he flew aboard the Friendship 7 Mercury capsule.  Go to article.

Ansel Adams, photographer, b. 1902.
Cindy Crawford, model, b. 1966.
Kurt Cobain, musician, b. 1967.

Lasers reveal 1,000-year-old Indigenous road near Chaco Canyon that aligns with the winter solstice
Lasers have revealed a 1,000-year-old sacred road near Chaco Canyon in New Mexico. Researchers think the Indigenous roads were more about cosmology than traffic. Read More.

Breakthrough quantum chip that harnesses new state of matter could set us on the path to quantum supremacy
Microsoft scientists have created a quantum processor that taps into a rare state of matter that was first theorized in the 1930s, paving the way for a processor with a million qubits within years. Read More.

Man nearly guaranteed to get early Alzheimer’s is still disease-free in his 70s — how?
A man who should have developed early-onset Alzheimer’s disease due to a genetic mutation is still symptom-free in his 70s. Scientists are trying to understand why. Read More.

Cynthia Erivo set to host the Tony Awards
The “Wicked” star, who is up for an Oscar for her performance in that film, will host this year’s Tony Awards.

4 Nations hockey tickets are rivaling prices for the Super Bowl
The 4 Nations Face-Off Championship between Canada and the US could generate a massive net profit. Data shows ticket prices are rivaling those of the Super Bowl.

Are your supplements safe?
Protein bars, shakes and pre-workout mixes are often used to maximize results at the gym. But some supplements are also associated with muscle dysmorphia, a study shows.

Tomb of ancient Egyptian king unearthed in ‘remarkable’ discovery
This discovery marks one of the most significant archaeological breakthroughs in recent years, an Egyptian official said.

Where does the internet actually come from?
Surfing the web, checking your email and streaming your favorite shows are all possible because of a vast network of undersea cables that power the global internet. Watch this video to learn how these cables work.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nice, France
A woman takes part in the Battle of Flowers event at the city carnival. The theme is King of the Oceans
Photograph: Syspeo/Sipa/Rex/Shutterstock

Placentia, California
An Allen’s hummingbird sits in her nest under the shelter of a tangelo tree
Photograph: Bruce Chambers/Zuma Press/Rex/Shutterstock

Phnom Penh, Cambodia
A woman takes her daily exercise in the village of Sre Ampel at dawn
Photograph: Heng Sinith/AP
Market Closes for February 20, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44176.65	-450.94
		-1.01%
S&P 500	6117.52	-26.63
		-0.43%
NASDAQ	19962.36	-93.89
		-0.47%
TSX	25514.08	-112.08
		-0.44%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38678.04	-486.57
		-1.24%
HANG SENG	22576.98	-367.26
		-1.60%
SENSEX	75735.96	-203.22
		-0.27%
FTSE 100*	8662.97	-49.56
		-0.57%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.210	3.178
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.385	3.357
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5033	4.5268
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7448	4.7597

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7057	0.7026
US $	1.4171	1.4232

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4885	0.6718
US $	1.0504	0.9520

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2936.85	2927.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	72.25	72.25

Market Commentary:
A weak currency is the sign of a  weak economy, and a weak economy leads to a weak nation. –H. Ross Perot,1930-2019.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.4%, or 112.08 to 25,514.08 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.7%.
Tfi International Inc. had the largest drop, falling 20.8%.
Today, 116 of 220 shares fell, while 99 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index was little changed
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 20.9% above its low on Feb. 21, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 1.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 18.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.14t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.12% compared with 11.01% in the previous session and the average of 11.16% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -74.9158| -2.6| 1/9
Industrials | -29.5951| -0.9| 5/22
Financials | -24.7882| -0.3| 9/16
Energy | -13.3830| -0.3| 19/22
Consumer Staples | -11.0318| -1.2| 3/7
Real Estate | -3.3770| -0.7| 6/14
Consumer Discretionary | -0.0090| 0.0| 6/5
Communication Services | 1.3629| 0.2| 2/3
Health Care | 2.2038| 3.2| 3/1
Utilities | 3.3045| 0.3| 10/5
Materials | 38.1482| 1.2| 35/12
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -56.9700| -3.7| 20.4| 14.4
TFI International | -21.0500| -20.8| 748.4| -26.0
RBC | -21.0300| -1.2| -46.5| -2.3
Ivanhoe Mines | 5.4720| 6.9| 77.2| -1.1
Canadian National | 5.7810| 1.0| -2.2| 0.9
Manulife Financial | 34.6400| 6.7| 28.1| 2.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell from all-time highs as a disappointing forecast from the world’s largest retailer added to concern about the economy’s main engine.
Walmart Inc., the first big-box retailer to report results after the holiday season, sank 6.5%.
Its chief financial officer acknowledged “uncertainties related to consumer behavior and global economic and geopolitical conditions.”
That’s just days after retail sales signaled an abrupt pullback by consumers.
A slide in banks also weighed on trading, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. each falling over 3.8%.
Retailers like Walmart tend to perform well during tough economic times.
It’s also true that Walmart usually starts the year with a conservative guidance.
But the fact is consumers are dealing with stubborn prices and high borrowing costs, and many are turning to credit cards and other debt to support their spending — with a rising number of those loans starting to go bad.
“This news out of Walmart raises even more concerns about the state of the consumer,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
“We have already seen some very disappointing numbers on consumer confidence and last week’s retail sales data was much lower than expected. It raises some questions about how strong growth will be over the rest of this year.”
Those uncertainties hit a market dealing with risks ranging from tariffs to inflation, geopolitics and valuations.
After rallying over 20% last year, US stocks have trailed global counterparts — with the S&P 500 failing to achieve meaningful breakouts during the three times it closed at a record in 2025.
“A correction may soon be necessary to restore a more attractive valuation for US stocks,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“While there are no overt warning signs just yet, it pays to be alert to signals that would put the S&P 500 forecast on a downward trajectory in the short-term.”
The S&P 500 slipped 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 slid 0.5%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1%.
The Russell 2000 dropped 0.9%.
The KBW Bank Index slumped 2.4%.
A gauge of the Magnificent Seven mega caps fell 0.5%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid three basis points to 4.50%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%.
The yen led gains in major currencies on bets the Bank of Japan will hike rates sooner rather than later.
“Walmart, a bellwether for consumer spending, raised another red flag, just as mounting trade tensions threaten to drive up the costs of goods,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
Before Thursday’s decline, Walmart’s shares had doubled since December 2023.
That left no room for disappointment.
Despite the market reaction, its outlook is more nuanced than it first appears.
In reality, it reflects a few key factors that don’t necessarily spell doom and gloom for the company’s business.
In addition, CFO John David Rainey also said consumer behavior remained “consistent” and “resilient.”
He noted that January had actually been the strongest month in the quarter.
Aside from the selloff in consumer companies, banks are among the groups hit the hardest.
Among the reasons, Jason Goldberg at Barclays Plc cited Walmart’s outlook and a contraction in the Conference Board leading economic index as factors fueling macroeconomic concerns.
But there’s also the fact that banks have also “had a decent move” resulting in “some profit taking,” the analyst wrote.
“US equities are seeing some broader de-risking today,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
While the overall consolidation pattern remains intact/healthy at this time, Wantrobski is watching for key support within the 5,950-6,000 range for the S&P 500 in sessions ahead.
“A closing break below this threshold still opens the door to a bigger drawdown towards the 200-day moving average — which resides within our 5,600-5,800 support target,” he added.
The gauge is currently above 6,100.
The US stock market can flip into a correction territory as retail and institutional buyers are running out of steam, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Scott Rubner, the bank’s managing director for global markets and tactical specialist.
Demand from retail traders, which have been piling into US stocks at a record pace this year, is expected to slow down ahead of the tax paying season in March.
Flows from pension funds can also “run out of juice,” according to Rubner attributing it to seasonal trends.
January and February are typically the strongest months of the year for yearly asset allocations, followed by weaker inflows in March.
Meantime, a measure of the S&P 500’s ability to brush off fear-inducing headlines and surprise policy announcements is the strongest since before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Investors are now less fixated on one particular variable —like a key inflation report — than in recent years, making the market more resilient to macro shocks, according to analysts at 22V Research.
“More variables, like earnings, industry group, and factor exposures, matter,” said Kevin Brocks, director at 22V Research.
“The macro picture has improved and the economy is further from recession.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Spirit Airlines Inc. won court approval to leave bankruptcy via a lender-backed take-private deal after rejecting a takeover offer from rival Frontier Group Holdings Inc.
* Boeing Co.’s chief executive officer said Elon Musk and his DOGE team are helping the plane maker work through bottlenecks that have caused the next fleet of Air Force One jets to fall years behind schedule.
* Carvana Co. tumbled after the used-car retailer reported lower gross profit per vehicle and shrinking wholesale volumes for the latest quarter, undercutting a turnaround narrative that had buoyed the stock.
* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. posted its fastest pace of revenue growth in more than a year, as the Chinese internet pioneer co- founded by Jack Ma takes another step toward a recovery after years of turbulence.
* Hasbro Inc. is targeting mid-single-digit sales growth through 2027 and savings of about $1 billion, as the toymaker laid out a plan to expand its reach over the next few years.
* Herbalife Ltd., a nutrition company, reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat consensus estimates.
* Birkenstock Holding Plc opted to keep its outlook unchanged, even as sales of its high-end sandals and clogs jumped more than expected in the first quarter.
* Grab Holdings Ltd. predicted full-year revenue that trailed estimates, suggesting caution around a Southeast Asian ride- hailing and food delivery market where GoTo Group remains a formidable rival.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone HCOB manufacturing & services PMI, Friday
* US S&P Global manufacturing & services PMI, existing home sales, consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.9%
* KBW Bank Index fell 2.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.0503
* The British pound rose 0.7% to $1.2670
* The Japanese yen rose 1.2% to 149.65 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $98,548.34
* Ether rose 1.5% to $2,752.03
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.50%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.61%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $72.57 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,938.39 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Sujata Rao, Margaryta Kirakosian, Anand Krishnamoorthy and Divya Patil.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The truth is, everyone is going to hurt you.  You just have to find the ones worth suffering for. –Bob Marley, 1945-1981.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
February 18, 1930: Clyde W. Tombaugh discovers Pluto, expanding our understanding of the solar system.
Photographic evidence of Pluto was discovered by Clyde W. Tombaugh at Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, Ariz. Go to article

Toni Morrison, writer, b. 1931.
Yoko Ono artist, b. 1933

AI ‘brain decoder’ can read a person’s thoughts with just a quick brain scan and almost no training
An improvement to an existing AI-based brain decoder can translate a person’s thoughts into text without hours of training. Read More.

Lasers reveal 15th-century fortified Zapotec city in Mexico
Lidar has fully revealed a 600-year-old Zapotec city in southern Mexico. Read More.

‘Stay off the roads’: Winter storm warning as deadly floods strike Kentucky
Kentucky is battling devastating floods after another powerful winter storm hit the eastern U.S. over the weekend, leaving at least 10 people dead. Read More.

‘We don’t feel stranded’: Astronauts ‘stuck’ in space set the record straight
“I think both of us will be a little bit sad when that feeling of space sort of leaves us.” Read More.

NASA rover discovers liquid water ‘ripples’ carved into Mars rock — and it could rewrite the Red Planet’s history
NASA’s Curiosity rover photographed remnants of rippling waves in an ancient Martian lakebed, proving that the Red Planet had open water for longer in its history than previously thought. Read More.

Catherine, Princess of Wales and children share hand-drawn portraits
Kensington Palace shared these family portraits drawn by Catherine, Princess of Wales, and her three children – George, Charlotte and Louis.

The American shopping mall is being reinvented
As major retailers and department stores continue closing, malls are looking for ways to boost foot traffic and sales. Here’s how they’re trying to convince consumers to stick around.

Emma Stone’s latest dress is made for sneaking snacks into the movies
Tired of expensive concessions? You could just store popcorn in your pockets like Emma Stone, but you butter not tell anyone.

Let’s paint the town rouge
Two strangers met on the Eiffel Tower 35 years ago. Here’s how they ended up married.

What is the scent of a mummy?
Nobody asked … but now that you’re wondering, researchers discovered that ancient Egyptian remains actually smell nice

I am tired of wiping away my wife’s tears and reassuring her that things will be ok for us. — Brian Gibbs, saying he was “heartbroken” to be suddenly let go from his dream job as a park ranger in Iowa. Gibbs was one of thousands of federal probationary workers who were terminated last week, a move by the Trump administration to decrease the overall federal workforce. He told CNN that he and his wife are expecting their second child this summer and he’s now one of many trying to figure out what to do next.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nuuk, Greenland
The northern lights appear over the island’s capital
Photograph: Emilio Morenatti/AP

Ağrı, Turkey
An aerial view of the snow-covered Ishak Pasha Palace, one of the most important Ottoman monuments in Anatolia
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Chongqing, China
A bird perches on a branch of plum blossom
Photograph: Costfoto/NurPhoto/REX/Shutterstock
Market Closes for February 18, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44556.34	+10.26
		+0.02%
S&P 500	6129.58	+14.95
		+0.24%
NASDAQ	20041.26	+14.49
		+0.07%
TSX	25648.84	+165.62
		+0.65%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39235.20	-35.20
		-0.09%
HANG SENG	22976.81	+360.58
		+1.59%
SENSEX	75967.39	-29.47
		-0.04%
FTSE 100*	8766.73	-1.28
		-0.01%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.191	3.109
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.365	3.299
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5464	4.4762
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7647	4.6963

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7046	0.7051
US $	1.4193	1.4182

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4829	0.6743
US $	1.0447	0.9572

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2900.55	2915.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.85	71.29

Market Commentary:
Most people can bear adversity.  But if you wish to know what a man really is, give him power. –Robert G. Ingersoll, 1833-1899.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 25,648.84 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on Feb. 10 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.8%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
BlackBerry Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 7.0%.
Today, 157 of 220 shares rose, while 62 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 21.6% above its low on Feb. 21, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 2.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 18.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.12t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.07% compared with 10.99% in the previous session and the average of 11.17% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 61.1555| 0.7| 17/8
Materials | 38.8520| 1.2| 40/9
Industrials | 26.7258| 0.8| 14/14
Energy | 26.0391| 0.6| 37/5
Information Technology | 14.2810| 0.5| 5/5
Consumer Discretionary | 4.3016| 0.5| 9/2
Real Estate | 1.2712| 0.3| 15/5
Consumer Staples | 1.1836| 0.1| 7/3
Health Care | 0.7984| 1.2| 3/1
Utilities | -1.7569| -0.2| 9/6
Communication Services | -7.2137| -1.2| 1/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 28.4700| 1.7| 36.4| -1.0
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 17.2800| 2.4| 1.1| 8.1
Shopify | 13.0100| 0.8| -0.9| 19.9
National Bank of Canada | -3.1780| -0.9| -29.2| -4.6
BCE | -4.1580| -1.9| -5.1| -0.6
Enbridge | -6.7190| -0.7| 114.9| -0.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in chipmakers drove stocks to all-time highs, while talks between US and Russia raised hopes of an end to the war in Ukraine.
The S&P 500 topped its January record despite a slide in most big techs.
Top officials from the US and Russia met for a first round of talks over the war in Ukraine and raised the possibility of broader cooperation.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average wavered.
A gauge of chipmakers climbed 1.7%.
Intel Corp. surged on breakup speculation.
Super Micro Computer Inc. jumped on a bullish outlook.
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. soared as CNBC said a Sycamore Partners takeout is alive.
Meta Platforms Inc. halted a 20-day rally.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose seven basis points to 4.55%.
A dollar gauge added 0.2%.
Bitcoin sank 2.3%.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co., we’d need to see a meaningful break of the S&P 500 above its record for it to be considered a compelling development.
“The new high in January was only a very mild move above the record high set in December,” he said.
“And it fell right back into its sideways range very quickly.”
The US benchmark has spent the better part of the last three months in a “pretty narrow” trading range, and we are entering a weak seasonal period with weak momentum, said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG.
“Our concern would be a marginal new high before a deeper pullback into March,” he noted.
“With that said, until bears can break back under 6,000, bulls remain in the driver seat.”
Mark Hackett at Nationwide says stocks are attempting to break out to a record despite geopolitical uncertainty, weak seasonality and retail investor exhaustion.
“As earnings expectations accelerate and the share repurchase window opens for most companies, the key tenets of the bear argument are breaking down,” he said.
“And odds are improving that the S&P 500 breaks out of the trading range it has been stuck in since the election.”
Global stocks have become the most-popular asset class with investors, who are showing the biggest willingness to take risk in 15 years, according to a survey by Bank of America Corp.
Fund managers’ cash levels fell to the lowest since 2010, while 34% of participants said they expect world equities to be the best-performing asset in 2025, the survey showed.
A net 11% indicated they were underweight bonds.
Investors are “long stocks, short everything else,” strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note. About 89% of respondents said US equities were overvalued, the most since at least April 2001.
“While we expect volatility to pick up in the near term amid a range of macro uncertainties, favorable fundamentals should continue to support global equities’ next leg up,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Investors can consider capital preservation strategies to manage downside risks.”
At Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson says the market’s resilience has been impressive year-to-date as investors refuse to “back down.”
“We expect market conditions to remain choppy as investors rotate ‘down-cap’ amid declining Treasury yields, weakening crude oil, and a pullback in the US dollar.”
“Investors will want to see more ‘Goldilocks’ data to contradict last week’s ‘whiff of stagflation,’ and a less hawkish tone from Fed officials,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
“Additionally, stabilizing yields and solid earnings would offer added tailwinds for equity markets at the start of the holiday-shortened trading week.”
Now beneath a solid fourth-quarter earnings season, there’s actually a worrisome development that may put a dent in the bull case for US stocks: Corporate America’s profit outlook is souring.
A gauge of forward earnings that compares companies’ forecasts with analysts’ projections is the lowest in a year after plunging to a level last seen in 2016 earlier this month, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.
With the vast majority of S&P 500 companies having reported so far this results cycle, earnings per share is up 13% on the year, highest since fourth quarter of 2021, BofA strategists including Ohsung Kwon and Savita Subramanian said.
Yet guidance from companies has been weak even as BofA’s Corporate Sentiment Score — a measure of positive versus negative words on earnings calls — rose to a record.

Corporate Highlights:
* Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI debuted its updated Grok-3 model, showcasing a version of the chatbot technology to challenge OpenAI days after the billionaire’s unsolicited cash bid to buy the company was rejected.
* Southwest Airlines Co. will cut about 1,750 jobs in its leadership ranks, a dramatic step to reduce expenses that mark the first layoffs in the carrier’s history.
* Constellation Brands Inc. jumped after Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reported a new position in the Corona and Modelo maker.
* Frozen food company Conagra Brands Inc. dropped after cutting its fiscal 2025 guidance.
* Medtronic Plc slipped after the medical-device maker reported revenue for its fiscal third quarter that missed expectations.
* United Rentals Inc. abandoned its plan to acquire H&E Equipment Services Inc., declining to increase its original offer of $3.4 billion for the rival construction equipment supplier.

Key events this week:
* New Zealand rate decision, Wednesday
* Fed minutes, Wednesday
* China loan prime rates, Thursday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, Thursday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee and Alberto Musalem speak, Thursday
* Eurozone HCOB manufacturing & services PMI, Friday
* US S&P Global manufacturing & services PMI, existing home sales, consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0447
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2606
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 152.05 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.3% to $94,201.4
* Ether fell 5.2% to $2,632.75
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.55%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.49%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.56%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $71.77 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.3% to $2,933.84 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sujata Rao, Margaryta Kirakosian, Aya Wagatsuma and Rob Verdonck.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
I don’t have expectations anymore, I have standards.  Respect my time, match my energy, keep your promises,
and be consistent.  These are my non-negotiables. –Mike O’Hearn, b. 1969.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Valentine’s Day! ❤🌹❤🌹❤🌹

Film lovers: Whether you adore Valentine’s Day or loathe it, we have movie recommendations for you. – NY Times.

February 14, 1876: Alexander Graham Bell applies for a patent for the telephone, a groundbreaking invention that revolutionizes global communication.

Dispatch: An ancient English ritual meant to chase away evil spirits and the winter blues is back. – NY Times.

Monkey blamed for nationwide blackout in Sri Lanka
It sounds bananas but I’m not lion … A monkey is being blamed for a power outage in Sri Lanka that disrupted supply to the island’s 22 million people.

‘You get one split second’: The story behind a viral bird photo
A photographer’s four-year project produced more than half a million photos. But one stood out from them all.

Boeing Starliner astronauts say they aren’t stuck in space
The two astronauts who piloted the Boeing Starliner’s first crewed test flight responded to claims that they were “abandoned” in space.

Denny’s is closing dozens of restaurants
The American diner is closing at least 30 of its restaurants as part of the struggling chain’s plans to jumpstart growth.

Biological aging may not be driven by what we thought
A new study draws a line between random genetic mutations and predictable epigenetic changes used to measure biological aging. Read More.

Parts of San Francisco and Los Angeles are sinking into the sea — meaning sea-level rise will be even worse
A study led by NASA and NOAA has found that California is sinking in some areas, which means the projected sea level rise for parts of Los Angeles and San Francisco has doubled. Read More.

Scientists just rewrote our understanding of epigenetics
DNA and RNA epigenetics, once thought to be separate, have now been found to work together to fine-tune gene expression. Read More.

Supercomputer runs largest and most complicated simulation of the universe ever
Frontier, the second fastest supercomputer in the world, used dark matter and the movement of gas and plasma rather than just gravity to model the observable universe.  Read More.

Watch record-breaking great white shark get tagged and released off East Coast
Scientists have tagged a giant male great white shark off the East Coast. The researchers said “Contender” is the largest male white shark ever caught and studied in the northwest Atlantic. Read More.

“R.F.K. Jr. is now in charge of the F.D.A., N.I.H. and C.D.C., to which Americans said, ‘OMG,’ ‘WTF’ and ‘FML.’” — JIMMY FALLON.

“But now it has happened, so you can now add ‘employment’ to the list of things he’s tested positive for.” — JORDAN KLEPPER.

“The Senate today confirmed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of health and human services. He was actually Trump’s second choice, but the Wuhan bat withdrew his nomination.” — SETH MEYERS.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Space
An image made by the integration of photographs taken over six hours shows Nebula IC 443 over Hinojedo in Cantabria, Spain. This supernova remnant, known as Medusa Nebula, is in the Gemini constellation, 5,000 light years from Earth
Photograph: Pedro Puente Hoyos/EPA

Male red deer in Richmond Park, London, UK
Photograph: SMPNEWS/Alamy Live News

Pathum Thani, Thailand
Thai Buddhist monks pray at Wat Dhammakaya temple
Photograph: Guillaume Payen/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 14, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44546.08	-165.35
		-0.37%
S&P 500	6114.63	-0.44
		-0.01%
NASDAQ	20026.77	+81.13
		+0.41%
TSX	25483.23	-215.29
		-0.84%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39149.43	-312.04
		-0.79%
HANG SENG	22620.33	+805.96
		+3.69%
SENSEX	75939.21	-199.76
		-0.26%
FTSE 100*	8732.46	-32.26
		-0.37%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.109	3.117
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.299	3.306
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4762	4.5308
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6963	4.7328

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7051	0.7047
US $	1.4182	1.4190

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4884	0.6718
US $	1.0495	0.9528

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2915.30	2891.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.29	71.29

MARKET COMMENTARY:
Save a lot and save often. -Richard Bernstein, 1932-2022.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.8% at 25,483.23 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.1% on Feb. 3 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 156 of 220 shares fell, while 63 rose.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.1%.
Seabridge Gold Inc. had the largest drop, falling 15.5%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 17 times. The next day, it declined 10 times for an average 0.8% and advanced seven times for an average 0.4%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.5% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 23.3% above its low on Feb. 14, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 18.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.15t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.99% compared with 10.68% in the previous session and the average of 11.19% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -109.0458| -2.5| 3/40
Materials | -85.9826| -2.7| 7/42
Industrials | -15.4513| -0.5| 11/17
Consumer Discretionary| -14.3872| -1.8| 2/9
Consumer Staples | -10.4974| -1.1| 4/6
Health Care | -1.0317| -1.5| 0/4
Real Estate | -0.6868| -0.1| 8/12
Information Technology| -0.6102| 0.0| 3/6
Utilities | 1.7545| 0.2| 7/8
Communication Services| 2.1366| 0.4| 3/2
Financials | 18.5229| 0.2| 15/10
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -25.4500| -5.1| 80.6| 20.7
TC Energy | -14.9800| -3.1| 62.3| -2.8
Franco-Nevada | -10.9600| -4.0| -11.3| 16.1
Brookfield Asset Management | 8.1630| 3.8| 79.4| 8.7
CAE | 10.3200| 13.8| 318.3| 4.1
Fairfax Financial | 10.4500| 3.5| 42.9| 3.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The bond market ended the week with solid gains as a soft reading on retail sales revived bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
A rally in Treasuries pushed the 10-year yield below 4.5%, with the bond notching its fifth straight week of gains — the longest run since July 2021.
Money markets are back to fully pricing in a first Fed reduction by September.
The S&P 500 hovered near its all-time highs. The dollar hit a fresh low for 2025.
US retail sales slumped in January by the most in nearly two years, indicating an abrupt pullback by consumers after a spending spree in the closing months of 2024.
The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, decreased 0.9% after an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December.
“The consumer sentiment report showed people were getting nervous and today’s weak retail sales number confirmed it,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“However, the resulting slack is good news for the Fed and tilts the balance a little bit more toward rate cuts.”
At Interactive Brokers, Jose Torres says the weak consumption report is reopening the door to a potential Fed reduction this summer, a prospect that was dampened by a “piping hot” inflation print earlier this week.
The S&P 500 was little changed.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%.
US markets will be closed Monday for Presidents’ Day.
Meta Platforms Inc. rose for a 20th consecutive session.
Dell Technologies Inc. jumped on news it’s near an over $5 billion server deal for Elon Musk’s xAI.
Intel Corp. fell Friday, but closed with its best week since 2000.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.48%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%.
“Consumers pulled back hard on spending after a generous holiday season, but they were still willing to open their pocketbooks when it came to dining out,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“This suggests households remain confident in the economy even as policy uncertainty has risen.”
To Gary Schlossberg at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, evidence of slowing activity isn’t enough to offset recent signs of firming inflation and shift expectations back to an early rate cut by the Fed.
“Are consumers taking a break?” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“Investors should be careful not to extract too much meaning from one data point. However, weaker retail sales amid increasing or stubbornly high inflation is a burden for US consumers and companies. It’s too early to call it a trend, but if that trend were to develop, it would be a troubling sign.”
Will Compernolle at FHN Financial says he’s skeptical the report signals a true inflection point in consumer spending.
Paired with an “overzealous reaction” to Thursday’s producer price index, bonds have moved into “overbought territory,” he said.
“The positive scenario from today’s data is this: rates ease as the economy moderates and the consumer weakness is a blip that doesn’t impact investors’ love affair with stocks,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
“The flipside is a much worse scenario: the consumer and the government both slam their wallets shut, impacting GDP faster than the Fed is willing or able to operate.”
Faster inflation in the US could end up being a “blessing in disguise” for financial markets because it will force President Donald Trump to opt for smaller trade tariffs, according to Bank of America Corp’s Michael Hartnett.
The strategist recommended buying bonds, saying that the 30-year Treasury yield likely reached a multi-year high of about 5% in January.
The yield was trading near 4.7% on Friday.
Hartnett also reiterated his preference for international equities over US stocks.
“Bond yields have certainly bounced around this week, and the fact that they’ve been able to come back down played a big role in yesterday’s strong rally in the stock market,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“However, this seemed to have more to do with the inflation issue than with the war or with tariffs.”
Given that the stock market has been range-bound for almost three months now, any meaningful upside breakout of this range will be quite positive on a technical basis, Maley concluded.
An analysis conducted by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shows that the market has been more micro-driven than average since the start of 2023.
During the last 6 months, 74% of the typical S&P 500 stock’s returns have been driven by company-specific rather than “macro” factors vs. an average of 58% over the past two decades.
“We expect the current micro-driven environment will persist in 2025,” said strategists led by David Kostin.
Among the factors, they said economic forecasts point to a healthy growth environment this year; continued artificial- intelligence development and adoption should create differentiation across stocks; elevated policy uncertainty also suggests elevated dispersion.
“Debates over trade, tax, fiscal, and other policies represent potential catalysts for additional return dispersion,” they noted. “A micro-driven market creates opportunity for active managers.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Airbnb Inc. issued an upbeat forecast for the first three months of 2025, citing “continued strong demand” after a bustling holiday travel season.
* Applied Materials Inc., the largest US maker of chip- manufacturing equipment, issued a lukewarm revenue forecast for the current period, citing the risk of export controls crimping its business.
* Coinbase Global Inc. said revenue more than doubled and profit increased more than forecast during last quarter’s Trump- inspired rally in digital assets.
* Dell Technologies Inc. is in advanced stages of securing a deal worth more than $5 billion to provide Elon Musk’s xAI with servers optimized for artificial intelligence work.
* DraftKings Inc. shares rose as much as 15% to their highest level in nearly three-and-a-half years after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations and raised its sales guidance for the current year.
* Moderna Inc. recorded a quarterly loss as vaccine sales waned and the company had an unexpected charge for a canceled manufacturing contract.
* Palo Alto Networks Inc. issued a disappointing earnings outlook for the current quarter, despite rivals including Fortinet Inc. and Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. posting strong results.
* Roku Inc., the streaming-video platform company, reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations.
* SoundHound AI Inc., Serve Robotics Inc. and Nano-X Imaging Ltd. tumbled after Nvidia Corp. filed a 13F indicating that the chipmaker exited its stakes in the companies.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. is considering taking a controlling stake in Intel Corp.’s factories at the request of Trump administration officials, a person familiar with the matter said, as the president looks to boost American manufacturing and maintain US leadership in critical technologies.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0491
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2586
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 152.32 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $97,156.73
* Ether rose 2.2% to $2,726.16
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.48%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.43%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.50%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8% to $70.72 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.5% to $2,884.89 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from John Viljoen, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Margaryta Kirakosian, Julien Ponthus and Divya Patil.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
There are all kinds of love in this world, but never the same love twice. -F. Scott Fitzgerald, 1896-1940.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

February 13^th, 1741: First magazine published in the US.
February 13^th, 1895: The Lumière brothers receive a French patent for the Cinématographe, a device that functions as a film camera, projector, and printer, revolutionizing the motion picture industry.
February 13^th, 1949: Dresden Fire bombing.
February 13^th, 1960 France exploded its first atomic bomb. Go to article.

Peter Gabriel, musician, b. 1950

Rock & Roll Hall of Fame 2025 nominees announced
A pop diva. A rock duo. A jam band. Here are the nominees for this year’s Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.

From rooftops to islands, Hong Kong has basketball courts everywhere
Hong Kong has thousands of outdoor basketball courts — some in the most peculiar locations. This photographer wants to capture them all.

New Zealand is home to the ‘world’s clearest lake.’
Tourists are even being told to wipe their shoes before visiting it.

Carmakers Nissan and Honda call off merger talks
Japan’s Nissan and Honda have put the brakes on merger talks that would have created the world’s third-largest carmaker.

2,500-year-old painted tomb with ‘unique scene of smithy’ discovered at Etruscan necropolis in Italy
Archaeologists in Italy have discovered a 2,500-year-old Etruscan tomb that is richly decorated with wall paintings. Read More.

Parisian photographer produces phenomenal, perfectly-proportioned ‘planetary parade’ portrait
A French astrophotographer recently snapped shots of the moon, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune in a single evening, and rearranged them to create a striking composite image. Each “planetary parade” member was captured with the same magnification, meaning they are perfectly scaled. Read More.

A strange triangle will appear in the zodiac this month. How to see rare ‘zodiacal light,’ before it disappears.
A ‘false dusk’ will be visible during twilight in February, but only from locations that are free of light pollution. Here’s everything you need to know about zodiacal light. Read More.

Physicists discover ‘ghost particle’ 100 times more energetic than ever seen before
Physicists have detected the highest-energy neutrino ever felt on Earth. The neutrino, detected at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea, has nearly 100 times more energy than any ghost particle previously detected. Read More.

Watch robot dog and drone locked in fierce battle — blasting fireworks at each other in future warfare demo
A viral video captured in an unknown location and widely shared on social media in China shows a robotic dog and a drone firing fireworks at each other. Read More.

From the Late Night Shows:
“President Trump spoke today with Russian president Vladimir Putin on the phone. And, bad news, you guys, we gotta change the name of the gulf again.” — SETH MEYERS.

“In a post on Truth Social today, President Trump said that he spoke with Russian president Vladimir Putin and discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, energy, artificial intelligence, the power of the dollar, Moo Deng, Sydney Sweeney, the return of the Shamrock Shake and this season of ‘The Traitors.’ ‘[imitating Trump] We got off track towards the end of the call. We got a little off track.’” — SETH MEYERS.

“President Trump said that he had a nice phone call with Vladimir Putin. Putin was like, ‘[imitating Putin] I told you I wouldn’t forget Valentine’s Day.’” — JIMMY FALLON

“The only awkward part of the call was when Putin said, ‘Is the president there?’ and both Trump and Elon said, ‘Yes?’” — JIMMY FALLON
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Antofagasta de la Sierra, Argentina
‘I took this on my trip along the La Puna region. You can see the road track from El Peñón leading to the ‘pumice stone field’.
Photograph: Alejandro Sala

London, UK
‘Visitors to the Canary Wharf winter lights festival make silhouettes as they take a break.’
Photograph: Colin Page

​​​​​​​Kerala, India
‘Dusk at a beach in Kovalam.’
Photograph: Kalyani Madhura Ramachandran
Market Closes for February 13, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44711.43	+342.87
		+0.77%
S&P 500	6115.07	+63.10
		+1.04%
NASDAQ	19945.64	+295.69
		+1.50%
TSX	25698.52	+135.41
		+0.53%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39513.62	+52.15
		+0.13%
HANG SENG	21814.37	-43.55
		-0.20%
SENSEX	76138.97	-32.11
		-0.04%
FTSE 100*	8764.72	-42.72
		-0.49%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.117	3.179
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.306	3.359
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5308	4.6208
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7328	4.8321

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7047	0.6993
US $	1.4190	1.4301

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4849	0.6734
US $	1.0466	0.9554

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2891.50	2891.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.29	71.37

MARKET COMMENTARY:
Predicting rain doesn’t count.  Building arks does. –Warren Buffett.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 25,698.51 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Jan. 30 after the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.2%.
Ero Copper Corp. had the largest increase, rising 6.7%.
Today, 129 of 221 shares rose, while 87 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 25.6% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 4.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 17.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.12t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.68% compared with 10.76% in the previous session and the average of 11.19% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 91.1007| 3.3| 7/3
Communication Services | 11.5706| 2.0| 5/0
Materials | 10.3001| 0.3| 29/17
Energy | 9.0178| 0.2| 21/21
Consumer Staples | 7.2774| 0.8| 6/4
Real Estate | 4.8942| 1.0| 18/2
Utilities | 2.4252| 0.3| 8/7
Consumer Discretionary | 1.2136| 0.1| 7/4
Health Care | 0.5411| 0.8| 2/2
Financials | -1.1106| 0.0| 13/12
Industrials | -1.8108| -0.1| 13/15
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 75.9400| 5.2| 29.4| 18.3
Brookfield Corp | 19.6900| 2.3| -15.4| 3.6
Constellation Software | 11.6700| 1.7| -15.1| 11.6
TD Bank | -5.8780| -0.6| -51.0| 11.2
Kinross Gold | -10.1600| -6.8| 78.6| 21.4
Sun Life Financial | -24.9300| -7.3| 250.1| -8.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks came within a striking distance of their all-time highs while the dollar got hit as President Donald Trump moved to impose reciprocal tariffs — but not right away.
All major groups in the S&P 500 rose, with the gauge up 1%.
The greenback dropped against all of its developed-market counterparts.
Treasuries rebounded from their worst slide since December.
Big tech outperformed as Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. each rallied over 3%.
Apple Inc. gained 2% as chief Tim Cook said the “newest member of the family” is coming on Feb. 19.
Meta Platforms Inc. advanced for a 19th straight day.
While Trump signed a measure directing the US Trade Representative and Commerce secretary to propose new levies on a country-by-country basis, the process could a while to complete.
Howard Lutnick, his nominee to lead the Commerce Department, said all studies should be complete by April 1 and that Trump could act immediately afterward.
The decision not to implement tariffs right away could be seen as an opening bid for negotiation — following the same strategy Trump already used to extract concessions from Mexico and Canada — rather than a sign he’s committed to following through.
“President Trump is seeking to level the global playing field by implementing reciprocal tariffs against nations that maintain levies on the US,” Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers said earlier this week.
“But investors are starting to realize that much of the talk is hardly going to come to fruition with the rhetoric increasingly appearing to be a negotiation tactic.”
To Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets, Trump has left open the opportunity for the US’s major trade partners to come to the negotiating table with a counteroffer.
But, there are enough moving parts to this process that it is challenging to have a precise take on how the final tariff structure will develop.
“We’re cautious against rushing too quickly to the conclusion that the market is in a position to move beyond the trade war saga for the time being,” Lyngen said.
Wall Street traders also looked past hot inflation data amid signs the Federal Reserve’s favored price gauge will be softer than expected.
The producer price index rose in January by more than forecast.
However, several of its components that feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — the personal consumption expenditures price index — were more favorable last month, registering declines in most health-care items and in airfares.
The next PCE will be released on Feb. 28.
“While PPI was much higher than expected, with even higher revisions, the real data that goes into PCE was weaker,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“And PCE is the one that Jerome Powell and the Fed look at. So in reality, the numbers are better.”
The S&P 500 topped 6,100.
The Nasdaq 100 added 1.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.8%.
The Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Total Return Index climbed 1.8%.
The Russell 2000 gained 1.2%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell nine basis points to 4.53%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lost 0.7%.
The yen gained 1.1% on safe-have appeal, while the Canadian dollar touched a new high for the year.
Despite the greenback’s slide on Thursday, the long-term view on the dollar remains positive, according to the Bloomberg dollar index’s fear-greed gauge.
“With the number of rate cuts being pared back for this year and other central banks moving forward with cuts abroad, dollar strength may be here to stay,” said Ryan Grabinski at Strategas.
Using history as a guide, a rising greenback has favored domestic equities relative to international and emerging, Grabinski noted.
On the other hand, a weaker US dollar is more favorable for equities in general and historically has been the greatest tailwind for emerging markets.
“To the extent to which the dollar continues to strengthen, it will weigh on companies with high foreign sales exposure,” he said.
“The two sectors with the greatest foreign revenue exposure are technology and materials with 59% and 53% of revenues sourced from abroad, respectively.  On the opposite end of the spectrum is the utilities sector with less than 2% of revenue sourced from abroad.”
Meantime, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Scott Rubner says a bearish trade is looming for US equities.
The market is increasingly crowded and dip-buying is running out of steam, Rubner said.
The managing director for global markets and tactical specialist was rightfully bullish heading into 2025, while touting an upcoming negative turn.
In a note on Wednesday, he said this was his “last bullish email” for the first quarter.
“Everyone is in the pool, including retail traders, 401k inflows, start of the year allocations, and corporates,” he said.
“The flow demand dynamics are quickly changing, and we are approaching negative seasonals.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc.’s iPhones will use Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s AI technology, the Chinese firm’s chairman said, affirming reports the e-commerce pioneer had scored a coveted role in helping power the iPhone in the world’s top mobile arena.
* Cisco Systems Inc. gave an upbeat sales forecast for the current quarter, helped by companies spending more on computing infrastructure to take advantage of AI technology.
* Trade Desk Inc., a company that helps marketers place ads online, posted its first quarterly miss in eight years and issued a forecast that fell short of Wall Street estimates.
* Deere & Co., the world leader in farm machinery, anticipated another challenging year with grain and soy growers still not spending.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. reported revenue that more than doubled as the online trading firm was buoyed by crypto-market transactions around the US presidential election.
* Reddit Inc.’s fourth-quarter user growth missed Wall Street’s expectations, a sign the newly public company is struggling to keep up with larger digital advertising peers Meta Platforms Inc. and Google.
* Molson Coors Beverage Co. reported profit that beat expectations, with a lift from sales outside of the US.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, Friday
* Fed’s Lorie Logan speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.7%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.0462
* The British pound rose 0.9% to $1.2560
* The Japanese yen rose 1.1% to 152.76 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.4% to $96,306.46
* Ether fell 1.1% to $2,654.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.53%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.49%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,928.62 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from John Viljoen, Macarena Muñoz and Winnie Hsu.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The longer the explanation, the bigger the lie. – Chinese Proverb.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Full moon tonight – the “Snow Moon” – last full moon of winter.  It’s Darwin Day, Charles Darwin’s birthday.

February 12, 1912: The last Emperor of China, Puyi, abdicates, leading to the establishment of the Republic of China and significant political reforms.
February 12, 1999: The Senate voted to acquit President Bill Clinton on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice. Go to article.

Abraham Lincoln President of the US, b. 1809.
Charles Darwin, naturalist, b. 1809.
R. Buckminster Fuller, architect, b. 1895.

How to watch February’s full snow moon
Greetings, skywatchers. You may still have a chance to see a full snow moon today along with Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn before they fade from view.

Photo gallery: The 149th Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show
A giant schnauzer named Monty won Best in Show at the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show on Tuesday. It’s im-paws-sible not to love this adorable face.

Paul McCartney surprised New Yorkers with a one-night-only show
The Beatles legend gave NYC an opportunity to “come together” for one night, and one night only –– for a surprise concert in Lower Manhattan.

Chocolate prices are up 20% this Valentine’s Day
Finding sweet deals on chocolate may be harder this Valentine’s Day due to the rising price of cocoa.

127.7 million:  That’s how many viewers tuned into Sunday’s Super Bowl, which saw the Philadelphia Eagles defeat the Kansas City Chiefs. That marks a 3% increase over last year’s record-breaking game.

People have been dumping corpses into the Thames since at least the Bronze Age, study finds
A new study of human remains dredged from the Thames River reveals that people frequently deposited corpses there in the Bronze and Iron ages. Read More.

World’s biggest underground thermal lake discovered in Albania at bottom of 330-foot abyss
Researchers have returned to an underground thermal lake they first came across in 2021 in southern Albania and confirmed it is the largest of its kind known in the world. Read More.

100-year-old heart drug made from foxglove may help ‘dissolve’ clumps of spreading cancer cells
The heart drug digoxin could potentially be combined with existing cancer therapies to prevent the spread of tumors, an early trial suggests. But questions remain. Read More.

World’s 1st hybrid quantum supercomputer goes online in Japan
Japan’s Fugaku supercomputer has gained an edge following the installation of the Reimei quantum computer. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Istanbul, Turkey
A view of the Bosphorus on a foggy morning
Photograph: Isa Terli/Anadolu/Getty Images

Washington DC, US
Snow covers the north lawn of the White House
Photograph: Ting Shen/AFP/Getty Images
London, UK
‘A winter rose in our garden.’
Photograph: Sofoulis Iacovou
Market Closes for February 12, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44368.56	-225.09
		-0.50%
S&P 500	6051.97	-16.53
		-0.27%
NASDAQ	19649.95	+6.09
		+0.03%
TSX	25563.11	-68.72
		-0.27%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38963.70	+162.53
		+0.42%
HANG SENG	21857.92	+563.06
		+2.64%
SENSEX	76171.08	-122.52
		-0.16%
FTSE 100*	8807.44	+30.05
		+0.34%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.179	3.098
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.359	3.290
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.6208	4.5413
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8321	4.7531

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6993	0.6998
US $	1.4301	1.4289

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4860	0.6729
US $	1.0392	0.9623

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2891.50	2904.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.37	73.32

MARKET COMMENTARY:
A jack oof all trades will never be rich. – Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.3%, or 68.72 to 25,563.11 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.5%.
TerraVest Industries Inc. had the largest drop, falling 10.4%.
Today, 118 of 221 shares fell, while 102 rose; 6 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.2% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 24.9% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 3.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.14t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.76% compared with 10.85% in the previous session and the average of 11.21% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -61.4058| -1.4| 10/33
Information Technology | -37.7789| -1.3| 3/7
Industrials | -16.8950| -0.5| 7/21
Consumer Discretionary | -9.3525| -1.1| 1/10
Real Estate | -4.6054| -1.0| 2/18
Utilities | -0.3822| 0.0| 10/5
Health Care | 0.1480| 0.2| 3/1
Consumer Staples | 2.2566| 0.2| 8/2
Communication Services | 5.8573| 1.0| 4/1
Financials | 13.7762| 0.2| 17/7
Materials | 39.6588| 1.2| 37/13
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -38.1400| -2.5| 31.2| 12.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -18.9200| -2.9| 21.5| -3.3
TD Bank | -13.7200| -1.3| -14.5| 11.8
Wheaton Precious Metals | 6.6090| 2.2| -3.9| 20.6
Intact Financial | 17.5300| 5.1| 39.1| 10.9
Barrick Gold | 18.9800| 6.4| 78.2| 16.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest bond market got hammered as hot inflation data spurred bets the Federal Reserve won’t have much room to cut rates this year.
Oil sank as President Donald Trump said he agreed with Russian President Vladimir Putin to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine.
Treasury 10-year yields soared the most since Dec. 18 when hawkish Fed signals rattled trading.
Money markets adjusted bets on US rate cuts, now projecting the first – and only reduction this year – in December.
Almost every major group in the S&P 500 fell, though the gauge pared most of a 1.1% slide as Tesla Inc. led gains in mega caps and Meta Platforms Inc. rose for an 18^th straight session.
For the first time since November, the Nasdaq 100 erased an intraday loss of 1%.
US inflation picked up broadly at the start of the year, with the monthly consumer price index rising in January by the most since August 2023.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the latest CPI shows that while the central bank has made substantial progress toward taming inflation, there is still more work to do, “so we want to keep policy restrictive for now.”
“Higher-for-longer may have just gotten a little longer,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“The Fed has been waiting for clear signs that inflation is trending lower again, and this morning they got the opposite. Until that changes, the markets are going to have to remain patient about additional rate cuts.”
Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers says it’s really tough to take today’s numbers in stride.
“The bond market didn’t,” he said.
“One feature of the current equity market seems to be this mantra: ‘Every dip is a buying opportunity. The bigger the dip, the bigger the opportunity’.”
Sosnick notes that in a way stocks can be a hedge against modest inflation, since earnings per share are measured in nominal terms. Inflation raises those nominal results, particularly for companies with relatively inelastic demand for their products.
“The largest tech stocks fit that bill, at least while the enthusiasm for all things related to artificial intelligence continues,” he noted.
“And thus, the dips get bought, even with a hot, hot, hot inflation report.”
The S&P 500 fell 0.3%.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.5%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 4.64%.
Bonds did not move much in response to a weak $42 billion US auction that saw the highest coupon rate since 2007.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.7% to $71.35 a barrel.
Gold was little changed.
The so-called core CPI — which excludes food and energy costs — increased 0.4% in January after a 0.2% advance in December, Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed Wednesday.
From a year ago, it rose 3.3%. The headline measure rose 0.5% from December and 3% from the year before.
“Today’s inflation report will make for very uncomfortable reading for the Fed,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“If this persists into the next few months, inflation risks may become too heavily weighted to the upside to permit the Fed to cut rates at all this year.”
Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, although it’s too early to predict that officials will begin raising rates any time soon, the market is going to start seriously considering that the next move the Fed makes – even if it is in late 2025 or early 2026 – is going to be a hike and not a cut.
“So caution is warranted,” he said. To Aditya Bhave at Bank of America Corp., the latest figures increase his conviction that the cutting cycle is over.
“Hikes remain unlikely, but they seem less inconceivable now,” Bhave said.
At the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, Larry Tentarelli says while he does not expect any immediate change in Fed policy, if there is a series of two or three hot inflation reports, they could put pressure on the Fed to raise rates.
“In the near-term, we expect higher bond yields and higher volatility in equity markets,” he said.
“Investors should keep a close eye on the 10-year US Treasury yield. Any move closer to or above 4.80% could create negative near-term headwinds for stocks.”
Matt Maley at Miller Tabak noted that Wednesday’s CPI, last week’s employment report and concerns over tariffs have all taken the yield on the 10
-year note back above its trend-line from last September.
“This does not mean that they will push above 5% level soon nor that these yields will not reverse lower at some point later this year,” Maley said.
“However, it should raise concerns that the Fed will wait quite a bit longer to cut short-term rates than the Street had been thinking until recently and also raise concerns that Secretary Scott Bessent’s goal of lower long-term yields will take longer to achieve as well.”
The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes is indeed an important benchmark that helps price trillions of dollars in global assets.
On Feb. 6, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he sees it as a key metric and catalyst for the economy.
The former hedge fund manager believes declines in 10-year Treasury yields — a trend he sees continuing to unfold — are a sign that bond investors are reacting positively to the Trump administration’s policies, which he sees sparking “non-inflationary growth.”
The jump in US inflation last month that surprised investors was mostly due to the way the government adjusts for typical price increases at the start of the year, according to Bloomberg Economics.
While the report spooked markets and reduced odds of a Fed interest-rate cut in the first half of the year, the advances were “mostly due to residual seasonality — the ‘January effect’ — limiting the signal from the hot print,” Bloomberg Economics’
Anna Wong and Stuart Paul wrote. At the same time, inflation ran a touch cooler at the end of 2024.
“Residual seasonality was likely at play in the January CPI report, but we think the data still showed underlying price pressures,” said Andy Schneider at BNP Paribas.
“While the Fed is cognizant of the pattern of early-year inflation strength, the print will do little to ease policymakers’ inflation anxieties.”
To Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group, lack of progress on inflation is the story here.
“This is not the start of a resurgence in inflation,” he said.
“Food and energy are big players in the hot reads, so there’s a chance we get a little reprieve in the spring.”
Mark Hackett at Nationwide, says today will be a test of investor psychology and commitment to the buy-the-dip instinct, as inflation continues to be a primary tail risk for the Goldilocks narrative.
“We have been concerned about inflation as a risk for some time, and believe that while risk markets can go higher, it will be a choppier trajectory than the last two years,” said Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“Investors should use pullbacks to add to U.S. large-cap equities and the energy, financials, industrials, and communication services sectors.
Samana says he would also use moves higher on the 10-year Treasury towards 4.5%-5% to add to lengthen the duration of portfolios and lock in what he believes to be attractive yields.
US PREVIEW: PPI Components Likely to Suggest Core PCE at 0.33%
Swap contracts linked to future Fed decisions, which previously anticipated a rate cut by September, repriced to imply just one quarter-point cut this year.
“Markets priced out cuts in the cycle as the firmer inflation print keeps the Fed on their toes as they assess the impacts of tariff policies as well as the deceleration in inflation from restrictive Fed policy,” said TD Securities strategists including Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg.
“We remain long 10-year rates and view levels as attractive entry points.”
All else equal, hotter inflation would likely keep the Fed from cutting rates sooner, which would in turn result in a stronger dollar, according to Richard Flynn at Charles Schwab.
“The dollar’s strength could help offset some of the inflationary pressures in the economy and from tariffs. It also makes US Treasuries attractive to hold, helping to mitigate some of the upward pressure on yields,” Flynn said.
“The immediate reaction to today’s report will likely weigh on stocks in the short term, as a higher-than-expected print further lowers the odds of rate cuts from the Fed this year and stokes investors’ reflationary fears,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
To Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott, the issue is that US equity markets have been “positioned for perfection” for quite some time now, which means any potholes on the macro front could lead to elevated volatility over the short run (like we are seeing today).
“And when we say positioned for perfection, we note the difference vs being priced to perfection: we are not at peak valuation in this current cycle, and thus the market multiple has a good deal of bandwidth for further expansion in the coming years in our opinion (reflationary bull market cycle),” he said. however, we are seeing an historic skew of equity positioning by both Main Street and institutional investors at this time.”
Wantrobski notes that effectively, long equities remains a very crowded trade at this time- and this is despite the recent pairing of large-cap tech exposure by the buyside.
“This makes for a very lopsided position in our view, which leaves little room for error (like today’s hotter-than- anticipated CPI print).”

Wall Street’s Reaction to CPI:
* Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.:
Today’s data doesn’t change the narrative that US economic momentum was solid over the turn of the year, while inflation progress stalled. If anything, this further confirms US Federal Reserve rhetoric to hold rates steady for a while. We think inflation is likely to hold steady at uncomfortably elevated levels through 2025 (~3% core CPI).
* Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors:
For now, it’s a “wait and see” approach for Fed Chair Jay Powell and his colleagues, who recognize that the case for further easing in the near term has been reduced. Rate hikes don’t appear to be on the table, but a sustained resurgence in inflation could change that.
* Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments:
The “wait and see” Fed is going to be waiting longer than anticipated after a red-hot January CPI inflation report. Prices jumped more than expected and in a broad-based fashion which is consistent with yesterday’s comments from Chair Powell that the Fed is not “in a hurry” to adjust interest rates. This report puts the final nail in the coffin for the rate cut cycle, which we believe is over.
Today’s hotter print shifts investor expectations for monetary policy, which lends to upward pressure on long-term interest rates and downward pressure on equities. Not all equities are impacted equally, however, with more indebted companies facing headwinds from higher rates while others will ultimately benefit from higher revenues as they are able to charge more for their products. We believe value should outperform growth in such an environment.
* Whitney Watson at Goldman Sachs Asset Management:
Today’s stronger than expected CPI release is likely to further cement the FOMC’s cautious approach to easing. A resilient labor market also provides scope for patience.  We think the Fed is likely to remain in “wait and see mode” for the time being and anticipate the Fed staying on hold at next month’s meeting.
* Michael Brown at Pepperstone:
These figures should see the Fed maintain their patient stance, being in no hurry to deliver another rate cut. Consequently, any rate reductions in the first half of 2025 now seem highly unlikely.
* Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital:
With this very strong CPI print, the Federal Reserve is on hold when it comes to interest rates for at least the remainder of 2025.
Inflation and inflation expectations are both rising, which is something the Fed needs to counter by keeping rates higher for longer.
The Fed has nothing to do at this point but wait and see, and hope that the economic indicators change to suggest more progress on inflation.  If consumer prices or inflation expectations rise any further, it is quite possible that the Fed’s next move is to raise short term interest rates.

Corporate Highlights:
* Chevron Corp. plans to cut its global workforce by 15% to 20% by next year, as part of efforts to reduce costs at the US oil major.
* Kraft Heinz Co. said it will discount key items in the coming year while improving products and boosting marketing in order to compete for inflation-weary customers.
* DoorDash Inc., the largest food delivery service in the US, issued an outlook for orders in the first quarter that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations, serving as yet another sign that consumer demand remains resilient.
* CVS Health Corp. shares climbed the most in more than 25 years after its fourth-quarter results signaled improved performance from the company whose insurance and drugstore units have been struggling.
* Spirit Airlines Inc. rejected a refreshed acquisition offer from rival budget carrier Frontier Group Holdings Inc., saying it would instead proceed with a planned restructuring in bankruptcy.
* Biogen Inc. forecast a bigger decline in annual sales than Wall Street expected, dimming the drugmaker’s strong finish to 2024.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, Friday
* Fed’s Lorie Logan speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0390
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2445
* The Japanese yen fell 1.3% to 154.43 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $96,978.82
* Ether rose 2.1% to $2,678.15
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 4.63%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.48%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.7% to $71.35 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang, John Viljoen, Sujata Rao, Allegra Catelli and Aya Wagatsuma.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Life isn’t about finding yourself. Life is about creating yourself. –George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
St. Bernadette of Lourdes, France.

February 11, 1979: Followers of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini seized power in Iran, nine days after the religious leader returned to his home country following 15 years of exile. Go to article.
February 11, 1990: Nelson Mandela released from prison.
February 11^th, 2020: The World Health Organization officially names the novel coronavirus disease “COVID-19,” standardizing the terminology for global health communication.

Thomas Edison, inventor, b. 1847.
Jennifer Aniston, actress, b. 1969.

MIT builds swarms of tiny robotic insect drones that can fly 100 times longer than previous designs
Scientists have built a new type of robotic insect that can fly 100 times longer than previous generations. Read More.

Mysterious tunnels sketched by Leonardo da Vinci in 1495 may finally have been discovered — hidden under a castle in Milan
Researchers may have found the hidden tunnels beneath a castle in Milan that Leonardo da Vinci sketched in 1495. Read More.

Scientists discover Earth’s inner core isn’t just slowing down — it’s also changing shape
The surface of Earth’s inner core appears to be dynamic, changing shape as it rotates, earthquake waves reveal. Read More.

Bahamas shark attack
Two American tourists were recently injured in an apparent shark attack while swimming in the Bahamas. Here’s what we know.

The Venice entry fee is back
It will cost 10 euros for day-trippers to visit the beloved Italian city of Venice on some days this summer. The fee is double from last year’s 5 euros to help curb overcrowding.

Mysterious portrait of a woman revealed beneath Picasso painting
Art historians studying a painting by Pablo Picasso have uncovered the mysterious portrait of a woman hidden beneath its surface.

Why are vintage cars stored in the middle of the desert?
One of the world’s strangest museums is located in the deserts of Qatar. See the vintage cars inside Sheikh Faisal Bin Qassim Al Thani Museum.

Africa’s first caviar is surprising the luxury food industry
Africa’s first sturgeon farm is selling caviar at over $10,000 per kilogram — and it’s made its way into some of the most prestigious kitchens in the world.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Hindus climb the 272 steps to the Batu Caves temple to make offerings during the Thaipusam festival
Photograph: Mohd Rasfan/AFP/Getty Images

Mount Etna, Italy
Lava flows from the Mount Etna volcano
Photograph: Marco Restivo/Etna Walk/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​New Delhi, India
A common silverline butterfly rests on a flower in New Delhi
Photograph: Harish Tyagi/EPA
Market Closes for February 11, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44593.65	+123.24
		+0.28%
S&P 500	6068.50	+2.06
		+0.03%
NASDAQ	19643.86	-70.41
		-0.36%
TSX	25631.83	-27.03
		-0.11%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39042.98	+241.81
		+0.62%
HANG SENG	21294.86	-227.12
		-1.06%
SENSEX	76293.60	-1018.20
		-1.32%
FTSE 100*	8777.39	+9.59
		+0.11%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.098	3.063
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.290	3.256
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.5413	4.4968
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7531	4.7066

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6998	0.6979
US $	1.4289	1.4329

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4807	0.6754
US $	1.0363	0.9650

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2904.45	2874.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	73.32	72.32

Market Commentary:
Experience is helpful, but it is judgement that matters. –General Colin Powell, 1937-2021.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.1% at 25,631.83 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.8%.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.4%.
Ero Copper Corp. had the largest drop, falling 6.3%.
Today, 144 of 221 shares fell, while 76 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 25.2% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 3.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 17.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.14t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.85% compared with 10.86% in the previous session and the average of 11.23% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -57.8535| -1.8| 4/45
Financials | -19.8424| -0.2| 9/16
Industrials | -5.3852| -0.2| 9/19
Real Estate | -4.9476| -1.0| 3/17
Consumer Staples | -3.5917| -0.4| 3/7
Utilities | -2.7801| -0.3| 4/11
Health Care | -0.5845| -0.9| 1/3
Consumer Discretionary | 0.5209| 0.1| 7/4
Communication Services | 5.4373| 0.9| 4/1
Information Technology | 23.9106| 0.9| 2/8
Energy | 38.0992| 0.9| 30/13
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | -12.0500| -1.4| -38.7| 1.5
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -11.5900| -2.3| -18.7| 24.9
Brookfield Asset Management | -7.6100| -3.5| 105.2| 2.0
TD Bank | 8.4490| 0.8| -26.5| 13.3
Suncor | 13.0300| 2.6| 104.0| 13.1
Shopify | 42.6400| 2.9| 110.4| 15.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Treasury yields rose and stocks fluctuated as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank is in no rush to cut rates.
Bonds fell across the curve, with money markets continuing to fully price in just one rate cut by the Fed this year.
The S&P 500 remained stuck in a tight range.
Most big techs dropped, though Meta Platforms Inc. climbed for a 17th consecutive day.
Intel Corp. and GlobalFoundries Inc. surged as Vice President JD Vance said the US will make sure the most sophisticated artificial-intelligence hardware is made domestically.
Just a day ahead of a key inflation reading, Powell signaled that officials will be patient before lowering borrowing costs further as the economy remains strong.
He also told Congress it is unwise to speculate on tariff policy at this time.
Powell is due to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the Fed is taking an “extended time-out on rates,” but remains oriented towards lowering borrowing costs further if and when there is further sustained inflation progress.
The S&P 500 was little changed.
With a high-low range sitting below 0.6% for two days in a row, the gauge was mired in a stretch of tight trading not seen since mid-December.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%.
“The stock market has been stuck in a sideways range,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“Despite the narrative on Wall Street, the market is not broadening out to the degree that some people are trying to portray. So, until we break out of this range, investors will want to remain nimble.”
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.54%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lost 0.3%.
US inflation showed scant signs of downward momentum at the start of the year, while healthy job growth undergirded the economy, backing the Fed’s stance to hold the line on interest rates for now.
Bureau of Labor Statistics figures due on Wednesday, shortly before the second half of Powell’s two-day testimony marathon, are forecast to show the consumer price index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in January for the fifth time in the last six months.
Compared with a year earlier, core CPI is forecast to have risen 3.1%.
While marginally lower than the annual figure for December, that’s just a 0.2 percentage point decline from the middle of last year.
“Recent inflation prints, coupled with a strong jobs market will allow patience from the Federal Reserve who will likely hold policy at its target range of 4.25%-4.50% in March,” said Josh Hirt at Vanguard.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows 41% of respondents expect the market reaction to CPI to be “risk-off,” 31% said “risk-on” and 28% “mixed/negligible.”
In addition, 37% of investors surveyed by 22V believe that financial conditions need to tighten.
“This value has come down significantly since last month,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V.
“59% believe that core CPI is on a Fed friendly glide path without a significant tightening of financial conditions, and 4% think there will be a recession.”
“With the labor market remaining strong and inflation still slightly above the Fed’s target, it’s not surprising that traders are pushing out prospects of another interest rate cut from the Fed toward the middle of the year,” said Matthew Weller at Forex.com and City Index.
Weller bets the volatility around this week’s inflation reading may be more limited than in the past, as the Fed will, in all likelihood, still get another handful of inflation and jobs reports before making any additional changes to interest rates.
“That said, a pickup in price pressures could lead traders to start asking whether the Fed’s interest rate cutting cycle may be completed already, complicating the path forward for a central bank that has clearly been hinting that the easing cycle isn’t done yet,” he noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. delivered more jets in a month than Airbus SE for the first time in almost two years as the plane maker begins to recover from a lengthy strike and years of turmoil.
* Coca-Cola Co.’s profit beat Wall Street expectations as shoppers paid higher prices for the company’s sodas, energy drinks and juices.
* Shopify Inc. reported quarterly revenue that exceeded expectations, suggesting its e-commerce software solutions stood out with merchants during the busy holiday quarter.
* Humana Inc. will cut membership in its Medicare Advantage plans, its biggest business, while spending to improve government quality ratings that have hurt revenue from the program.
* Travelers Cos. said it expects about $1.7 billion of pretax losses from the wildfires that devastated Los Angeles last month.
* DuPont de Nemours Inc.’s earnings jumped on growth in the electronics market, suggesting the conglomerate’s push to cut costs and break up into smaller, more focused businesses is paying off.
* S&P Global Inc. reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat estimates as strong issuance of corporate debt bolstered the firm’s ratings business.
* WK Kellogg Co. posted fourth-quarter profit that topped Wall Street’s expectations, even as the cereal maker called out challenges weighing on sales.
* Marriott International Inc.’s guidance for net rooms growth in 2025 proved softer than some analysts expected.
* Elliott Investment Management disclosed a more than $2.5 billion stake in oil refiner Phillips 66 and plans to push the company to sell or spin off its pipeline business.

Key events this week:
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to House Financial Services panel, Wednesday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Christopher Waller speak, Wednesday
* Eurozone industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, Friday
* Fed’s Lorie Logan speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0362
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.2444
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 152.56 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $95,268.2
* Ether fell 2.5% to $2,597.18
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.54%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 2.43%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.51%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $73.23 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,898.10 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang, Phil Kuntz, Martin Keohan, John Viljoen and Margaryta Kirakosian.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Suppose you were an idiot.  And suppose you were a member of Congress.  But I repeat myself. –Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday!

February 10, 1964: Bob Dylan’s album “The Times They Are A-Changin”‘ was released. Go to article
February 10, 1996: IBM’s Deep Blue defeats world chess champion Garry Kasparov in a game, marking the first time a computer has beaten a reigning world champion under standard chess tournament time controls.

11,000-year-old settlement in Canada could rewrite history of Indigenous civilizations in North America
The discovery of an 11,000-year-old village in Saskatchewan could rewrite Indigenous history in central Canada. Read More.

Alaska’s ice is melting in front of our eyes, staggering satellite shots show
Unusual weather patterns and climate change have been driving stark changes in the northwestern state. Now, new satellite images show the extent of this transformation. Read More.

Stunning, rainbow-colored object spotted by James Webb telescope could be an alien solar system in the making
The James Webb Space Telescope has captured a belching protostar in its infancy. By studying the dust grains whirling around it, astronomers hope to better understand how solar systems like our own take shape. Read More.

Orcas off Antarctica filmed teaching calves to hunt in incredible new footage
PBS show “Nature: Expedition Killer Whale” reveals an hour-long lesson where adult orca teach calves how to hunt seals off Antarctica. Read More.

Coldest-ever qubits could lead to faster quantum computers
Scientists have cooled qubits to record low temperatures using a quantum refrigerator powered by “hot thermal baths.” Read More.

Would a fallout shelter really protect you in a nuclear blast?
Nuclear bunkers aren’t a foolproof way to stay safe during a nuclear attack. Here’s why. Read More.

Super Bowl LIX: A recap on the ads and Kendrick Lamar’s halftime show
CNN curated a list of Super Bowl commercials that stood out in a crowded field. Rapper Kendrick Lamar also headlined an energetic halftime show, completing a victory lap after a year-long feud with rapper Drake.

New marriages in China crash to record low
Around 6 million couples in China registered their marriages in 2024, a plunge of about 20% from the previous year. Read how the government is encouraging young people to tie the knot.

How to keep your private conversations private
These apps and online tools can help you maintain privacy in an increasingly connected world.

One of the last surviving Tuskegee Airmen dies at 100
Retired Lt. Col. Harry Stewart Jr., a decorated World War II pilot and one of the last surviving Tuskegee Airmen, has died. Watch this short video to learn about his life and legacy.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

North Woodstock, US
People trek through the caverns and snow at Ice Castles in New Hampshire. Since 2011, Ice Castles has been dedicated to creating a world of ice caves, frozen waterfalls and glaciers formed into archways, caverns, slides and tunnels
Photograph: Joseph Prezioso/AFP/Getty Images

Carr Shield, UK
Snow blankets the Northumberland village
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

​​​​​​​Ağrı, Turkey
People cross a bridge over a frozen lake
Photograph: Abdullah Söylemez/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 10, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44470.41	+167.01
		+0.38%
S&P 500	6066.44	+40.45
		+0.67%
NASDAQ	19714.27	+190.87
		+0.98%
TSX	25658.86	+215.95
		+0.85%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38801.17	+14.15
		+0.04%
HANG SENG	21521.98	+388.44
		+1.84%
SENSEX	77311.80	-548.39
		-0.70%
FTSE 100*	8767.80	+67.27
		+0.77%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.063	3.082
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.256	3.263
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4968	4.4947
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7066	4.6926

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6979	0.6999
US $	1.4329	1.4287

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4766	0.6772
US $	1.0305	0.9704

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2874.65	2838.95
Oil
WTI Crude Future	72.32	71.00

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1997, Prudential Insurance emerged as the investor backing a pioneering financial instrument: debt backed by music royalties. David Bowie became the first musician to securitize his back catalog with Prudential snapping up all $55 million of the “Bowie bonds,” which paid 7.9% interest.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.8% at 25,658.86 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Jan. 30 after the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.9%.
MDA Space Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 13.0%.
Today, 153 of 221 shares rose, while 67 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 25.4% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and rose 3.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.11t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.86% compared with 10.93% in the previous session and the average of 11.23% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 64.2511| 2.0| 40/10
Energy | 59.9851| 1.4| 38/4
Information Technology | 49.7259| 1.8| 10/0
Industrials | 30.8797| 1.0| 20/8
Consumer Discretionary | 11.3075| 1.4| 8/3
Communication Services | 5.2189| 0.9| 4/1
Real Estate | 3.5532| 0.7| 13/7
Utilities | 1.4685| 0.2| 8/7
Health Care | -0.9476| -1.4| 0/4
Financials | -2.0544| 0.0| 7/18
Consumer Staples | -7.4435| -0.8| 5/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 39.0600| 3.9| 101.9| 12.4
Shopify | 32.9600| 2.3| 29.6| 12.1
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 11.7000| 2.4| 27.1| 27.9
CIBC | -7.6090| -1.3| -36.2| -3.4
Couche-Tard | -8.4400| -2.1| 95.1| -8.5
RBC | -15.4600| -0.9| -17.8| -2.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks kicked off the week with gains, rebounding after a slide driven by concerns over inflation and US tariff threats.
The dollar strengthened and gold hit a record high.
The advance in equities was led by the market’s most-influential group – technology – with the Nasdaq 100 up over 1% Monday.
Nvidia Corp. extended a five-day surge to about 15% while Meta Platforms Inc. rose for a 16th consecutive session.
Materials producers were also on the spotlight amid President Donald Trump’s plans to impose 25% tariffs on all US imports of steel and aluminum.
United States Steel Corp. and Alcoa Corp. climbed at least 2.2%.
Trump said Sunday the steel and aluminum tariffs would apply to shipments from all countries, including major suppliers Mexico and Canada.
He didn’t specify when the duties would take effect.
The president also said he would announce reciprocal tariffs this week on countries that tax US imports.
Aside from the global trade picture, investors will also be focused on this week’s key inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress.
Expected inflation rates over the next year and three years ahead were both unchanged in January at 3%, according to results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations published Monday.
“Inflation data, Powell’s congressional testimony, and tariffs are poised to drive the market story,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“If the S&P 500 is going to break out of its two-month consolidation, it may need a respite from the types of negative surprises — like DeepSeek, tariffs, and consumer sentiment — that have tripped it up over the past few weeks.”
Hedge funds emerged as big buyers of US stocks last week, shifting away from a previously bearish stance in the wake of stronger-than-expected earnings reports.
They snapped up US equities at the fastest pace since November, resulting in the heaviest net buying of single stocks in more than three years, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage report for the week ended on Feb. 7.
The activity was heaviest in the information technology sector.
The S&P 500 rose 0.7%.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.2%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4%.
The Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Total Return Index advanced 0.4%.
The Russell 2000 Index gained 0.4%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.5%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%. Gold topped $2,900 an ounce.
To Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers, many investors are starting to realize that much of the tariff talk is hardly going to come to fruition, with the rhetoric increasingly appearing to be a negotiation tactic.
“The posturing is intended to benefit domestic economic conditions rather than disrupt global commerce momentum, and the outcomes are likely to be much better than feared,” he said.
“For this reason, traders are stepping up to the plate today and scooping up stocks.”
“In the Old Testament, even God rested on the seventh day!” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
“Since the Inauguration, though, whether you love or hate him, we can all agree that President Trump’s second term has started with a nonstop fire hose of news and headlines.”
Despite the jitters around the news flow, one metric shows the market has actually been surprisingly calm.
Over the last 100 trading days, the roughly $630 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 (SPY) has traded in a relatively narrow range of less than 10%, according to Bespoke.
While that may sound like a wide range, it ranks in just the 13th percentile of all comparable periods dating back to SPY’s inception in 1993.
Back in Covid, this reading spiked above 50% and during the Financial Crisis, it widened even more, peaking above 75%.
“Investors may be better served by not reacting to the news cycle,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“Stand still and let tariff, Big Tech, and interest-rate developments play out over the near term. Making investment decisions on still unknown outcomes increases the risk of being wrong or offside if developments shift in the opposite direction.”
“Despite day-to-day confusion, tariff uncertainty, the geopolitical environment, and elevated valuations in the tech space remain the biggest unknowns for investors,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Together, these factors point to measured gains this year rather than blockbuster returns of recent years.”
By one barometer, investors’ expectations for the stock market have never been this high at the start of a presidential term.
The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, more commonly known as the CAPE ratio, stood at nearly 38 in late January, an “extremely high” level, according to Charlie Bilello at Creative Planning.
Positioning tells a similar story.
The US equity risk premium (ERP) — a measure of the differential between the expected returns of stocks and bonds — is deep into negative territory, something that hasn’t happened since the early 2000s.
Whether that’s a negative indicator for share prices depends on the economic cycle.
A lower number can be seen as indicating that corporate profits are going to rise.
Or it could mean that stocks are climbing too rapidly and are far above their actual value.
“Although multiples are elevated, we remain fully invested due to the potential for continued economic growth, moderating inflation and an accommodative Fed,” said Richard Saperstein at Treasury Partners.
“Our characterization for stocks this year is a choppy market that trends higher over the year.”
Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management says high expectations, elevated rates and policy uncertainty “don’t mix well together.”
“We’re learning that in real time,” Cox said. “Strive for portfolio balance, and remember that there’s a world outside of AI.”
The resilience of stocks in the face of tariffs may invite further trade escalations, making equity pullbacks likely, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists including Binky Chadha.
They noted these pullbacks require same playbook as for geopolitical shocks, which have historically seen sharp but short-lived selloffs, with equities typically bottoming even as the event continues and recouping losses before any de-escalation.
In such scenarios, equities would typically weaken 6%-8%, moving lower for three weeks before gaining strength for three weeks.
“For investors, the greatest market risk likely lies in policy unpredictability,” according to Christian Floro at Principal Asset Management.
“Given this environment, diversification is essential to manage portfolio risk and capture opportunities as companies, countries and markets adjust.”
While headlines continue to be dominated by concerns over tariffs and mega cap tech spending, the market narrative shift around broadening and leadership is being confirmed by fundamentals and market dynamics, according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“Watch for rotation of stock index leadership from the Magnificent Seven toward value, cyclicals and non-GenAI infrastructure secular growth,” she said.
“Consider adding cyclicals like financials, energy, domestic manufacturers and consumer services to US stock positions.”
“We stay overweight US equities on a solid macro outlook and the AI mega force – a big, structural shift,” said BlackRock Investment Institute strategists including Jean Boivin and Wei Li.
“We go overweight government bonds in the euro area, where the potential growth hit from tariffs should reinforce rate cuts.”
As US stocks confront mounting risks, such as questions around the economy and gains concentrated in just a few companies, it’s a good time to shift into other equity markets, says Alexander Altmann at Barclays Plc.
The firm’s global head of equities tactical strategies, who joined the bank last year after running a portfolio at Millennium Capital Management, recommends “shorting US exceptionalism” — at least temporarily —  with American stocks at historically high valuations.

Corporate Highlights:
* Toronto-Dominion Bank expects to raise about $14 billion through the sale of its entire stake in Charles Schwab Corp. as part of a corporate overhaul in the wake of its historic US money-laundering settlement.
* Microsoft Corp. is under investigation from the French antitrust authority amid concerns the US tech giant is degrading the quality of results when smaller rivals pay to use Bing technology in their own search-engine products.
* McDonald’s Corp. sales rose in the fourth quarter after growth in the chain’s international business made up for a decline in the US.
* Lyft Inc. will launch driverless rides with technology vendor and Intel Corp. spinoff Mobileye Global Inc. in Dallas as soon as 2026, building on a partnership that was first announced last November.
* Hyatt Hotels Corp. struck a deal to purchase Playa Hotels & Resorts NV for about $2.6 billion, expanding its reach into the all-inclusive resort market in countries including the Dominican Republic and Jamaica.
* Hertz Corp. has kicked off negotiations to settle litigation surrounding a make-whole payout of over $270 million that has been demanded by some bondholders, the company said on Monday.
* BP Plc surged after Elliott Investment Management built a stake in the company, seeking to end years of under-performance by pushing for significant change.
* The notion that China’s DeepSeek spent under $6 million to develop its artificial intelligence system is “exaggerated and a little bit misleading,” according Google DeepMind boss Demis Hassabis.

Key events this week:
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives semiannual testimony to Senate Banking Committee, Tuesday
* Fed’s Beth Hammack, John Williams, Michelle Bowman speak, Tuesday
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies to House Financial Services panel, Wednesday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Christopher Waller speak, Wednesday
* Eurozone industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US retail sales, industrial production, business inventories, Friday
* Fed’s Lorie Logan speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0306
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2365
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 151.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $97,382.75
* Ether rose 5.1% to $2,684.87
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.50%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.36%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.46%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $72.45 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.6% to $2,907.21 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from John Viljoen, Catherine Bosley and Matthew Burgess.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You were born to win, but to be a winner, you must plan to win, prepare to win, and expect to win. –Zig Ziglar, 1926-2012.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

February 7, 1962:  President John F. Kennedy imposed a full trade embargo on Cuba. Go to article.
February 7, 1974: Independence Day, Grenada.
February 7, 1992:  The Maastricht Treaty is signed, leading to the creation of the European Union and fostering economic and political unity in Europe.

Charles Dickens, writer, b.1812.
Chris Rock, comedian, b.1966.
Ashton Kutcher, actor, b. 1978.

‘Impossible’ black holes detected by James Webb telescope may finally have an explanation — if this ultra-rare form of matter exists
Observations from the James Webb Space Telescope reveal monster black holes in the early universe that seem to have grown too big, too fast. New research points to a strange form of dark matter as a possible culprit. Read More.

World’s largest-ever bead stash found in 5,000-year-old ‘Ivory Lady’ tomb in Spain
More than a quarter million beads found in a tomb with female skeletons were used to decorate the women’s ceremonial dresses, suggesting they were powerful leaders five millennia ago. Read More.

Watch humanoid robots waltzing seamlessly with humans thanks to AI motion tracking software upgrade
Lifelike human motion could enable robots to complete far more tasks, as well as adapt to environments they’ve not been specifically designed for. Read More

PHOTOS O FTHE DAY

Spectators watch a starling murmuration over Brighton beach at sunset, on the English south coast
Photograph: Simon Dack News/Alamy

Impalas in Kruger national park during golfers’ practice before the Africa Amateur Championship at Leopard Creek country club in Malelane, South Africa
Photograph: Oisin Keniry/R&A/Getty Images

Alpuente, SpainThe peloton of the 76th Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana cycle race pass through signs of spring
Photograph: Szymon Gruchalski/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 7, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	44303.40	-444.23
		-0.99%
S&P 500	6025.99	-57.58
		-0.95%
NASDAQ	19523.40	-268.59
		-1.36%
TSX	25442.91	-91.58
		-0.36%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38787.02	-279.51
		-0.72%
HANG SENG	21133.54	+241.92
		+1.16%
SENSEX	77860.19	-197.97
		-0.25%
FTSE 100*	8700.53	-26.75
		-0.31%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.082	2.961
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.263	3.152
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.4947	4.4322
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6926	4.6358

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.6999	0.6988
US $	1.4287	1.4310

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4757	0.6776
US $	1.0330	0.9681

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2838.95	2871.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	71.00	70.61

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1804, John Deere was born in Rutland, Vt. In 1837 he threw the American frontier wide open by inventing the self-cleaning steel plow, making it possible to farm the rich Midwestern and Western soil.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.4%, or 91.58 to 25,442.91 in Toronto.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11 sectors lost; 119 of 221 shares fell, while 97 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.4%.
BCE Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.2%.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 0.4%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.7% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 24.3% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.12t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.93% compared with 10.88% in the previous session and the average of 11.11% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -31.4241| -1.1| 4/6
Industrials | -22.2425| -0.7| 10/18
Communication Services | -16.6167| -2.8| 2/3
Financials | -11.4280| -0.1| 11/14
Materials | -9.2207| -0.3| 22/28
Consumer Staples | -6.5876| -0.7| 3/7
Consumer Discretionary | -3.2989| -0.4| 4/7
Real Estate | -1.9882| -0.4| 4/13
Utilities | -1.8229| -0.2| 4/10
Health Care | -0.8969| -1.3| 0/4
Energy | 13.9633| 0.3| 33/9
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -19.5400| -1.4| -26.0| 9.6
BCE | -13.2900| -6.2| 121.3| -5.1
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -11.8300| -1.6| 0.2| 5.9
Power of Canada | 4.1140| 2.3| -4.8| 6.7
Cameco | 4.9080| 2.3| -4.8| -3.5
ARC Resources | 5.1890| 5.1| 78.4| -0.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders worried about the potential impacts of US tariffs on inflation didn’t get much relief from economic data that only underscored concerns over  price pressures, reinforcing speculation the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut interest rates.
Stocks erased this week’s gains, with the S&P 500 down about 1%.
President Donald Trump said he will announce reciprocal levies next week in an escalation of his trade war.
United States Steel Corp. sank as he indicated Nippon Steel Corp. is considering investing in the company instead of an outright purchase.
Equities came under pressure after data showed a slide in consumer sentiment amid concern over inflation.
Mixed jobs figures highlighted a moderating — yet healthy — labor market, and a jump in wages.
Bonds fell.
Mega caps slid amid a disappointing outlook from Amazon.com Inc.
The latest economic readings help explain why policymakers have signaled they aren’t in a hurry to lower borrowing costs after three rate cuts last year.
While traders are still betting the next move will be a reduction, they are only fully pricing one in September.
“The broader picture is still one of labor market resilience and sustained wage pressures,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management. “This simply gives the Fed little reason to cut policy rates immediately.”
The Nasdaq 100 lost 1.3%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps sank 2%.
The Russell 2000 dropped 1.2%.
Amazon tumbled about 4%.
Roblox Corp. is part of an active investigation by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, according to information obtained by Bloomberg News.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.49%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000 last month after upward revisions to the prior two months.
Other revisions only carried out once a year weren’t as severe as once thought — job gains averaged 166,000 a month last year, a slowdown from the initially reported 186,000 pace.
The unemployment rate was 4.0% — the survey used to produce the number incorporated separate revisions to reflect a new population estimate at the start of the year, which makes the figure incomparable to prior months.
Meantime, hourly wages climbed 0.5%.
“Strong wage growth is good for workers and should be viewed as a positive for consumer spending,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“However, Wall Street has watched this gauge closely over the last few years, worrying that too strong of wage growth could push inflation higher.”
Outside of the headline result, the latest jobs report is not cause for alarm, he said.
“While some investors may worry about implications for inflation or rate cuts, make no mistake about it: It’s better to have a strong economy and labor market than a deteriorating environment. Remember, stocks tend to do well amid mild inflation,” Kenwell concluded.
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, the fixed- income reaction to the data is an opportunity to go long the asset class.
“Ultimately, the Fed will need to cut rates because too many things don’t work with rates up this high,” Dutta said.
“Looking at the data itself, cyclical areas of the labor market are sluggish. Goods producing employment is soft and total hours in the manufacturing sector fell.”
Yet Dutta also notes that the low level of unemployment likely keeps the Fed on the sidelines.
“The Fed is not in a forgiving mood right now,” he said.
“ They are looking for reasons to wait and today’s report gives them one.”
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said it’s appropriate to keep the Fed’s benchmark interest rate where it is for some time, given a stable labor market, limited progress on inflation in recent months and uncertainty over the outlook for fiscal and trade policy.
Meantime, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told CNBC he expects inflation will continue to cool toward the 2% target, allowing policymakers to lower interest rates “modestly” by the end of the year.
Lindsay Rosner at Goldman Sachs Asset Management says the Fed is likely to be cautious about reading too much into today’s report.
“Either way you spin it, the Fed should feel quite cozy sitting tight the rest of winter knowing that it was the right decision to hit the pause button on rate cuts,” said Charlie Ripley at Allianz Investment Management.
The Fed has already been pushing out expectations for its next rate cut, and this jobs report probably justifies that approach — if not nudging them to push out expectations even further, according to Jason Pride at Glenmede.
“The Federal Reserve has another round of inflation and employment data to mull before the next scheduled announcement on March 19,” said Mark Hamrick at Bankrate.
“It is seen remaining patient before making another interest rate move having recently opted to stand pat.”
In the week ahead, the US January consumer price index report is likely to prove a mixed bag for the inflation-fighting Fed, while retail sales probably slowed, according to Bloomberg Economics.
“Core CPI has surprised to the upside in January in 13 of the last 14 years, with yields rising in 6 out of last 7 Februarys,” said Guneet Dhingra at BNP Paribas.
“However, this year we could see an asymmetry towards lower yields – an upside print might be seen as a ‘usual’ January distortion, but a downside print is seen as good news.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Amazon.com Inc. warned investors that it could face capacity constraints in its cloud computing division despite plans to invest some $100 billion this year, with most of the money going toward data centers, homegrown chips and other equipment to provide artificial intelligence services.
* Apple Inc. plans to unveil a long-anticipated overhaul of the iPhone SE in the coming days, a move that will modernize its lower-cost model in a bid to spur growth and entice consumers to switch from other brands.
* Pinterest Inc. posted strong holiday-quarter revenue and gave an upbeat forecast for sales in the current period, a sign that its advertising business continues to grow despite increased competition from much larger rivals in the social networking space.
* Cloudflare Inc., a software company, reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations.
* Expedia Group Inc. posted better-than-expected gross bookings in the final months of 2024, reflecting resilient demand for travel during the winter holiday season.
* Nikola Corp. is exploring a possible bankruptcy filing, according to people familiar with the matter, following a tumultuous period in which the electric truck maker has swung between stock-market darling and scandal-plagued enterprise.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.95% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0329
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2409
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 151.29 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $95,923.59
* Ether fell 4% to $2,601.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.49%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.37%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.48%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $70.95 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,861.96 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lynn Thomasson, Allegra Catelli and Robert Brand.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Never let yesterday use up too much of today.-Will Rogers, 1879-1935.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

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