Category: Events

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Mayflower Day.
September 16, 1620: Pilgrims deported from England.
1810: Mexican Independence Day.
September 16, 1959: Xerox unveils the 914 photocopier in a live TV demo, delivering the first successful instant copying machine for offices worldwide.
2008: The federal government announced an emergency $85 billion loan to rescue AIG, the world’s largest insurance company.

Laurne Bacall, actress, b. 1924.
B.B. King, musician, b. 1925.

Tourists fined and banned from Venice for swimming in canal
In Venice, you can’t swim pasta the rules. A quick dip in a historic Italian canal landed these tourists in hot water.

Bad Bunny is doing one more show in Puerto Rico, for all of us
The popular musician added a final bonus show in Puerto Rico, which will be streamed live on September 20.

How the NFL’s kickoff rule made the sport safer
With the new NFL season now in full flow, fans are still getting used to some of the changes in the sport.

Paradise Bay: The new destination for an A-list getaway
At this luxury destination, exclusive villas can cost around $50,000 a night.

Drumroll please: One woman inspires a new generation of musicians
Melissa Walker has dedicated her life to ensuring that kids have access to arts education. Watch this inspiring video to see how she’s using jazz to unlock young potential in New Jersey.

Diet change could make brain cancer easier to treat, early study hints

A new lab study exploited a unique aspect of metabolism in glioblastoma to boost the effectiveness of chemoradiation, turning the cancer’s properties against itself. Read More.

Scientists measure the ‘natal kick’ that sent a baby black hole careening through space for the first time

Two black holes merged together 2.4 billion light years away from Earth, and scientists have just figured out how fast the newborn ricocheted, and in which direction. Read More.

New EV battery tech could power 500-mile road trips on a 12-minute charge

An EV battery breakthrough from Korea could help give lithium-metal tech the green light. Read More.

RIP Robert Redford.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Ningbo, China
Fishing boats head out to the East China Sea after a four-and-a-half-month fishing moratorium ended in Zhejiang province, eastern China
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
The Museum of Tomorrow, a futuristic building with the appearance of a ship, is hosting the Nova Bienal Rio, which merges art and technology and features about 70 works from 30 countries
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Agoura Hills, US
An aerial view of the Wallis Annenberg wildlife crossing over the 101 freeway outside of Los Angeles in California. Officials hope it will eventually provide safe passage for threatened species such as mountain lions and connect protected areas in the Santa Monica mountains and the Sierra Madre range
Photograph: Mario Tama/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 16^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45757.90	-125.55
		-0.27%
S&P 500	6606.76	-8.52
		-0.13%
NASDAQ	22333.96	-14.79
		-0.07%
TSX	29315.23	-115.79
		-0.39%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44902.27	+134.15
		+0.30%
HANG SENG	26438.51	-8.05
		-0.03%
SENSEX	82380.69	+594.95
		+0.73%
FTSE 100*	9195.66	-81.37
		-0.88%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.150	3.167
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.587	3.599
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0279	4.0375
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6486	4.6602

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7278	0.7223
US $	1.3740	1.3844

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6297	0.6136
US $	1.1862	0.8430

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3657.65	3651.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	64.52	63.30

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1935, a new securities shop opened for business at 2 Wall St. bearing the names of co-founders Henry Morgan and Harold Stanley. Made up of former J.P. Morgan bankers, Morgan Stanley was a result of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act that split commercial and investment banking.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 29,315.23 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 1 sector lost; 129 of 210 shares fell, while 80 rose.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 7.2%.
Orla Mining Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 10.2%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.2%
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on Sept. 15, 2025 and 31.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 18.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.7t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.32% compared with 8.86% in the previous session and the average of 9.62% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -89.1749| -1.9| 7/40
Consumer Discretionary | -9.3387| -1.0| 1/8
Industrials | -9.2870| -0.3| 19/10
Financials | -8.3542| -0.1| 7/17
Utilities | -8.0152| -0.8| 2/12
Consumer Staples | -6.6746| -0.7| 2/8
Communication Services | -4.2903| -0.7| 1/4
Health Care | -1.8072| -2.6| 0/3
Real Estate | -1.5576| -0.3| 5/13
Information Technology | -1.1586| 0.0| 5/5
Energy | 23.8768| 0.5| 31/9
Cameco | -25.9900| -7.2| 67.9| 49.3
Manulife Financial | -14.9800| -2.8| 14.2| -2.0
Wheaton Precious Metals | -11.4300| -2.4| 109.2| 78.9
Suncor | 8.7630| 1.8| 4.8| 15.3
Bank of Montreal | 13.0200| 1.5| 13.3| 28.0
Canadian Natural Resources | 16.5600| 2.6| 26.8| 2.0
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed down from a record high Tuesday as market watchers await a Bank of Canada interest-rate decision tomorrow, with RBC saying it will be a “closer call than the market expects”, and as Teck Resources closed lower after a federal minister hinted a proposed deal with Anglo American may not get the green light.
With profit taking balancing any positivity around higher commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 115.79 points or 0.4% to 29,315.23, with most sectors lower.
Health Care was down 2.8% and Base Metals down near 1%.
In contrast, Energy was up 2.5% and the Battery Metals Index up 2%.
On commodities, gold continued its record run up midafternoon on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve’s policy committee begins a two-day meeting that is expected to end with the central bank’s first cut to interest rates this year.
Gold for December delivery was up $6.60 to US$3,725.60 per ounce, rising off Monday’s record close.
Also, West Texas Intermediate oil closed at a two-week high on weakening supply from Russia as Ukrainian attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure cut into physical supply while China continues buying to build its strategic reserves.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed up $1.22 to settle at $64.52 per barrel, the highest since Sept.2.
November Brent crude was last seen up $1.20 to $68.64.
In individual stock news, Industry Minister Melanie Joly said the Canadian government would want to see longer-term commitments to this country if Teck Resources (TECK-A.TO, TECK-B.TO) is allowed to merge with U.K.-based miner Anglo American, The Canadian Press reported.
“There have been conversations with the companies, and clearly we wanted to make sure that there would be a net benefit to Canada.
But I think right now that it’s not enough,” Joly said as she headed into a cabinet meeting Tuesday.
The report noted while Joly said the short-term matters, she added, “we need to think about longer term and how can we make sure that ultimately we create jobs, but we have a strong headquarters, not only now but also for the next decade.”
It cited Joly saying further conversations are needed and she plans to speak to the chief executives of both companies next week.
Teck’s Class B shares closed down $2.48 to $55.31.
In terms of two outstanding Canadian economic questions, one was answered today with Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne saying the governing Liberals will present a delayed federal budget, the first under new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, on Nov. 4.
The other big question, related to whether or not the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council members feel the time is right to re-start with rate cuts, will be answered tomorrow.
According to RBC Capital Markets, the market is doing a “full court press” for a BoC cut tomorrow at near 23bp priced, but it said the decision is probably more finely balanced within the BoC’s Governing Council, and in the minds of those at RBC.
The “easy” answer, RBC added, is a negative Q2 GDP print, two months of rising unemployment rate and a neutral CPI print today are sufficient conditions to re-start an easing cycle.
But it noted the Governing Council was somewhat divided in the context of a hold decision in July, with the Summary of Deliberations showing some Council members seeing more to do, others seeing the cutting cycle as over.
RBC noted “under-appreciated reasons why staying on the sidelines now is prudent”.
It said under the surface the GDP and employment data was “significantly less alarming” than the headlines, noting final domestic demand rebounded to near 3.5% in Q2 and youth and self-employed job losses the last two months are “not particularly concerning”.
RBC Economics recently highlighted weakness in exports and employment year to date is mostly contained to high tariff-exposed sectors.
“It could be a high hurdle for the BoC to rely on recent trade-policy distorted data to make the leap into re-starting the easing cycle, RBC added.
“Importantly,” RBC said, “fiscal policy is better suited to manage isolated economic problems.
Signs from fiscal authorities suggest next month’s Federal budget will be on the expansionary side, with any “austerity” on program spending likely to be more than offset by increased spending elsewhere (e.g. infrastructure, defence).
The fiscal side can provide a needed boost to overall sentiment and target measures to trade-impacted sectors. Provincial fiscal updates have leaned to larger deficits than earlier budgets.
“Is there,” RBC added, “enough urgency to move before incorporating the new information from the Federal budget?”
RBC noted upside inflation risks have diminished, with many retaliatory tariffs removed, and underlying core trends at three months annualized are moving lower, but it also noted underlying inflation still seems stuck around the 2.5% level, which is right where the BoC assessed it at the last Summary of Deliberations.
“Cutting into an elevated/sticky inflation backdrop requires high confidence that the future growth outlook will be soft,” RBC said.
Other considerations, RBC noted, are the “domestic vibes aren’t particularly worrisome” as sentiment indicators have improved from the low points earlier in the year, and according to RBC Economics Q3 is showing early signs of recovery.
It also noted potential GDP is falling and is likely 0% to 1% in 2025, with population growth headed to zero.
“Not much residual growth in the economy, never mind a boost from fiscal stimulus, is necessary for the economy to grow above trend, RBC added.
Lastly, RBC said, key metrics have all come in line with the BoC’s July forecasts on Q2 GDP, headline and core inflation, when the central bank decided to hold rates.
“To warrant a cut and provide a bridge until fiscal helps out, the BoC will need to have confidence that there is “urgency” on the growth side (i.e. below trend growth will persist and broaden from trade related distortions), “it added.
Meanwhile, CIBC in an FICC Strategy note with pre-BoC trading thoughts said the central bank is “universally” expected to restart the easing cycle tomorrow, lowering the policy interest rate by 0.25 basis points to 2.50%.
But CIBC expects the BoC to remain within the ‘flooridor’ system, maintaining the deposit rate at 5.0bps below the policy rate and the Bank rate at 25.0bps above.
“The reason for the ease reflects increased evidence that a weaker economy is putting downward pressure on inflation, while the upward price pressures from trade disruptions look very contained,” it added.
Elsewhere, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, said today’s CPI data “solidifies” a 25-bps cut at tomorrow’s meeting.
Macquarie continues to see a total of 50 bps in cuts.
Its base case is for the second cut to occur in October.
It added risks to this view are for greater easing with a third 25 bps cut also possible in December or January.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders gearing up for the Federal Reserve decision refrained from making big bets as they awaited clues on the path of rates that will shape the outlook for markets over the next few months.
A solid reading on retail sales did little to move trading, with a rally in equities fading near a record and bonds edging higher.
The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.6% after a similar gain in July.
The control-group sales — which feed into the calculation of goods spending for gross domestic product — climbed 0.7%, indicating a healthy quarter.
“The American consumer appears to be in good spirits,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“That’s good news for the economy, but it may heighten debate over how aggressively the Fed needs to cut rates.”
While Fed officials are still focused on bringing inflation to their target, they’re widely expected to cut rates in an effort to shield the labor market from further deterioration.
“Even if the job market is weak, it’s not hurting the consumer yet,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“While these numbers won’t prevent the Fed from cutting rates tomorrow, they reduce some of the longer-term dovish hopes.”
The S&P 500 lost 0.1%.
The Nasdaq 100 halted a nine-day advance.
Treasuries held gains after a solid sale of 20-year bonds.
The yield on two-year notes slid three basis points to 3.51%.
The dollar fell.
The euro hit its highest since 2021.
US PREVIEW: FOMC to Cut Rates Amid Open and Silent Dissents to Bret Kenwell eToro, given the recent labor-market data, retail sales were a big question coming into this week.
“In other words, would the recent job weakness impact consumer spending? The short answer appears to be no,” he said.
Kenwell noted that earnings estimates continue to move higher and consumer spending remains solid.
Provided these tailwinds remain in place, equities can continue to perform well, even if the market takes a breather, he said.
“Further, it’s important to note that historically, risk assets perform well when the Fed starts cutting rates in non- recessionary environments,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
While the retail-sales report was another piece of good economic news, much of the recent stock rally has been driven by expectations of six rate cuts over the next 12 months, according to Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
“These six cuts can only come if the job-market deterioration is material and the equity performance that came with it is dependent over it,” he said.
Bonds Hint Growth, Not Inflation, Is Now Stocks’ Chief Concern with the Fed’s post-meeting statement set to be released at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, investors will look for changes in the latest quarterly rates projections, known as the dot plot, and pore over Jerome Powell’s remarks a half-hour later.
Recent speculation about the need for a 50-basis point rate cut is not justified by the current data, according to Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
Broader economic indicators — including earnings and credit spreads — do not reflect the kind of deterioration typically warranting that level of action, she said.
“We join the chorus of voices anticipating a 25 basis-point Fed cut tomorrow,” noted Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments.
“That said: though we expect the market reaction to the Fed meeting to have a ‘sell the news’ flavor, we’d fade that pessimism in the near term.”
Money markets are fully pricing in a quarter-point Fed reduction Wednesday, and a series of interest-rate cuts over the next year.
An outlook echoing that view would be an encouraging sign for stock bulls, who have largely banked on a gradual easing path that keeps the economy from sliding into a recession.
While some investors are expecting a “sell the news” event, since Wednesday’s expected rate cut is widely priced in, Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management sees no obvious reason for a post-Fed selloff, given how earnings are still very strong and since the artificial intelligence theme is still intact.
“Even though stocks are at record highs, we are not seeing signs of euphoria,” he said.
“The IPO market has only recently started to unfreeze, and many investors are focused on the recent slowdown in hiring.
Stocks still have more room to climb the wall of worry.”
The equity options market is predicting a roughly 0.7% swing following the Fed meeting on Wednesday, tied for the second lowest expected move in the last 18 months, according to data from Susquehanna International Group.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed respondents are leaning “risk-on” (43%) reacting to the Fed meeting, 31% said “mixed/negligible” and 26% “risk-off.”
“We expect a 25 basis-point cut this week to be followed by three more cuts of the same size consecutively in the coming months, creating a favorable backdrop for the equity rally,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey showed a net 28% of global fund managers are overweight equities.
Opinions about growth showed the sharpest improvement in almost a year.
There are “bulls galore” as the risk of a “recessionary trade war” has ebbed, BofA strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.
He added that equity exposure isn’t at extreme levels yet, which bodes well for the rally to continue for now.
A rally that has taken US stocks to fresh records could experience turbulence in coming weeks before finishing the year with a flourish, according to Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner.
Near-term risks include stretched valuations, the seasonal volatility that has tended to occur in September and October and possible selling from trend-following funds.
Any potential weakness is unlikely to last, however, as the tailwinds that have buoyed stocks — including corporate spending on artificial intelligence and demand from retail traders — give them a lift in the closing months of 2025, Rubner said.
Worries have been mounting that the S&P 500’s surge becoming a bubble.
While critics point to the tech sector’s outsize influence on this year’s gain, it’s the rest of the market that is starting to look a bit overpriced, according to Seaport Research Partners.
An index of S&P 500 companies that excludes the technology sector has risen a solid 13% over the last year, but has seen profits grow by just 6.4%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
The S&P 500 Information Technology index has surged 27%, a rate that looks more restrained when put up against the sector’s earnings growth of 26.9%.
The resilience of the economy, combined with rate cuts, are going to keep this bull market running, noted Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“It always sounds smarter to be bearish and see threats around every corner, but a market that refuses to go lower – especially during the worst months of the year – sends a strong signal that dips should be bought in 2025,” he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* TikTok’s American operations would be acquired by an investor consortium that includes Oracle Corp., Andreessen Horowitz and private equity firm Silver Lake Management LLC under a framework deal that US President Donald Trump is set to discuss with
Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.
* Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said US negotiators expressed disappointment to their Chinese counterparts when they learned during trade talks of China’s ruling that Nvidia Corp. had violated anti-monopoly laws with a high-profile 2020 deal.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google said it will invest £5 billion ($6.8 billion) over two years in the UK to help build an artificial intelligence economy in the country.
* President Trump filed a $15 billion defamation suit against The New York Times Co. and Penguin Random House LLC, accusing the paper of serving as a “mouthpiece” for the Democrats.
* Boeing Co.’s striking defense workers will vote Friday on a contract proposal drafted by union leaders that includes a 20% guaranteed wage increase and $10,000 signing bonus aimed at ending a six-week labor standoff.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Scott Kirby says improving travel demand going into the fall indicates the economy is stronger than statistics show.
* Binance Holdings Ltd., the world’s largest crypto exchange, is moving toward a potential deal with the US Justice Department that would allow it to drop a key oversight requirement in its $4.3 billion settlement of allegations that it didn’t do enough to prevent money laundering, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Ralph Lauren Corp. sees revenue growth remaining similar to recent rates over the next three years, according to the preppy fashion company’s latest strategic outlook.
* Walt Disney Co. is bringing all of its marquee comics to a new digital platform and app in partnership with Webtoon Entertainment Inc., sending shares of the upstart company soaring.
** Walt Disney, Comcast Corp.’s Universal Studios and Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. are suing Chinese artificial intelligence startup MiniMax, accusing the company of pirating the studios’ intellectual property.
* Rithm Capital Corp. is nearing a purchase of office landlord Paramount Group Inc.
* Nestlé SA Chairman Paul Bulcke will step down early after investors questioned his handling of the ouster of the food company’s former chief executive officer due to an undisclosed romantic relationship with a subordinate.
* Dye & Durham’s shares plunged Tuesday after the legal software provider said it will miss the deadline for submitting its annual report, adding another hurdle for a company that has already faced pressure from an activist shareholder this year.
* Novo Nordisk A/S plans to seek US regulatory approval for a high-dose version of its blockbuster weight-loss shot Wegovy, another effort to counter Eli Lilly & Co. in the booming obesity market.
* Anglo American Plc and Teck Resources Ltd. haven’t done enough yet to show the advantages of their merger to the Canadian economy, said the country’s industry minister, who plans to meet with the companies’ chief executive officers next week.
* Thyssenkrupp AG has received a takeover offer for its steel division from India’s Jindal, opening a new chapter in the drawn-out search for a new owner of the struggling business.
* Tencent Holdings Ltd. raised 9 billion yuan ($1.27 billion) on Tuesday from its first bond sale in four years.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Ahead of a presumptive interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve, US stock valuations have reached levels comparable to those seen ahead of the dotcom bubble burst.
If the S&P 500’s current price of 22.6x forward earnings were to hold until Wednesday — when the Fed is expected to deliver a quarter-point reduction — it would mark the highest multiple coinciding with a rate cut, in Bloomberg data going back to 1990.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.1860
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3652
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 146.50 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $116,836.23
* Ether fell 0.5% to $4,491.29
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.03%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.64%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.51%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $64.58 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,689.78 an ounce

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If my mind can conceive it, if my heart can believe it , then I can achieve it. –Muhammad Ali, 1942-2016.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

September 15, 1776: British troops capture Lower Manhattan after landing at what is now Kips Bay on the East River.
September 15, 1940:Battle of Britain.
September 15, 1971: Greenpeace founded.
The first Costco Warehouse opens in 1983 on Fourth Avenue South in Seattle. The first store is a warehouse with a hot dog stand in front. The warehouse concept is pioneered by Price Club in San Diego in 1976; Costco and Price Club merge in 1993. At first, only small businesses can buy at Costco from about 4,000 items at 8 to 9% over wholesale prices. Later, Costco expands to include retail customers. The company’s headquarters is in Issaquah. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)
September 15, 2008: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy protection – the largest in U.S. history. Go to article.

Francois de la Rochefoucauld, writer, b.1613.
James Fenimore Cooper, author, b. 1789.
Agatha Christie, author, b. 1890.

The wildcard of the NYC mayoral race
He wears a red beret everywhere and once had 17 cats. Meet New York mayoral candidate Curtis Silwa.

Anime movie breaks 26-year box office record
“Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle” set a record for the biggest opening weekend domestic gross for an anime movie, hauling in an estimated $70 million.
Rookie hits longest MLB home run in more than two years
Athletics rookie Nick Kurtz hit it out of the park with a 493-foot grand slam homer, the longest in Major League Baseball for more than two years.

Terence ‘Bud’ Crawford makes history with victory over Canelo Alvarez
Terence Crawford became the first male boxer to capture three unified division titles when he defeated Canelo Alvarez by unanimous decision on Saturday.

Having difficult talks with your son should happen sooner than you might think, expert says
Your boys are listening. Christopher Pepper, coauthor of “Talk to Your Boys,” explains how parents can approach challenging topics with their sons.

10.61: That’s how many seconds it took American sprinter Melissa Jefferson-Wooden to finish the women’s 100 meters at Saturday’s World Athletics Championships. It is the fourth fastest time in history.

Astronomers accidentally use rare ‘double zoom’ technique to view black hole’s corona in unprecedented detail

For the first time, astronomers have directly measured a solar-system-size corona around a distant supermassive black hole, thanks to a rare cosmic alignment. Read More.

New ‘quasi-moon’ discovered in Earth orbit may have been hiding there for decades

A near-Earth asteroid lurked undetected for decades until a telescope in Hawaii spotted it earlier this year. It may be Earth’s newest quasi-moon. Read More.

‘Almost like science fiction’: European ant is the first known animal to clone members of another species

A species of ant found scurrying across southern Europe is the first animal found that clones males of another species. Read More.

Scientists develop ‘full-spectrum’ 6G chip that could transfer data at 100 gigabits per second — 10,000 times faster than 5G

Researchers have developed a 6G chip that uses a dual electro-photonic approach to send signals across nine radio-frequency bands. Read More.

350-year-old mummified head from Bolivia isn’t what it seems

A mummified skull from Bolivia was long thought to be of an Inca man, but a new study finds it had a different history. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dorset, UK
Almost Synchro are a Bristol-based open water synchronised swimming team united by a passion for outdoor swimming and performing together
Photograph: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

Pennsylvania, US
The Lantern Lights festival at Pocono Raceway
Photograph: Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu/Getty Images

West Sussex, UK
A flock of sheep take to the track to honour the former racing driver and farmer Jim Clark during a parade during the second day of the Goodwood Revival at Goodwood Motor Circuit. The three-day event, which is staged entirely in period theme, features vintage campervans, a best dressed contest judged by Dita Von Teese, a VE Day 80th anniversary street party and races run entirely on sustainable fuel
Photograph: Kieran Cleeves Media Assignments/PA
Market Closes for September 15^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45883.45	+49.23
		+0.11%
S&P 500	6615.28	+30.99
		+0.47%
NASDAQ	22348.75	+207.65
		+0.94%
TSX	29431.02	+147.20
		+0.50%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44768.12	+395.62
		+0.89%
HANG SENG	26446.56	+58.40
		+0.22%
SENSEX	81785.74	-118.96
		-0.15%
FTSE 100*	9277.03	-6.26
		-0.07%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.167	3.188
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.599	3.618
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0375	4.0643
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6602	4.6805

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7257	0.7223
US $	1.3779	1.3844

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6170	0.6207
US $	1.1763	0.8501

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3651.10	3629.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.30	62.69

MARKET COMMENTARY:
On this day in 1997, the web domain google.com was registered. The Stanford University coders behind the search engine, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, had initially called their project Backrub.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 29,431.02 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.6%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 14.8%.
Today, 116 of 210 shares rose, while 89 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.6%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 32.4% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 5.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 18.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.68t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.86% compared with 9.50% in the previous session and the average of 9.73% over the past month

Index Points
Energy | 46.6576| 1.0| 22/17
Financials | 42.7692| 0.5| 16/8
Information Technology | 40.1026| 1.3| 6/3
Materials | 17.5601| 0.4| 28/18
Industrials | 15.1428| 0.4| 19/10
Consumer Discretionary | 6.9634| 0.7| 6/2
Utilities | 0.0058| 0.0| 7/7
Health Care | -0.1898| -0.3| 2/1
Real Estate | -1.5292| -0.3| 8/10
Communication Services | -6.8410| -1.1| 1/4
Consumer Staples | -13.4496| -1.3| 1/9
Shopify | 44.1600| 2.6| -1.2| 33.1
Cameco | 32.6900| 9.9| 33.8| 60.8
Brookfield Corp | 17.7600| 1.9| -31.4| 15.7
Enbridge | -6.1020| -0.6| -13.7| 10.8
Constellation Software | -12.5500| -2.1| 27.4| -3.2
(MT Newswires)
A late rally extended gains on the Toronto Stock Exchange and with that brought about a fresh record close Monday as more market watchers believe not only will the Bank of Canada cut its key benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, but will follow that up with another in October, even as National Bank cited tomorrow inflation report as “a source of uncertainty”.
The TSX added the best part of 60 points over the last 30 minutes of trade to finish up 147.20 points or 0.5% at 29,431.02, with most sectors higher, led by Base Metals up near 1.5%.
This was the 14th record in the last 17 sessions for the index.
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high midafternoon on Monday, rising above US$2,700 as traders await an expected U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate cut later this week.
Gold for December delivery was up US$33.60 to US$3,720.00 per ounce, edging lower from Friday’s record close.
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex) was up 1% while Brent Crude (ICE) was up 0.75%.
The Wall Street Journal noted Nymex natural gas settled up 3.5% at US$3.043/mmBtu as the front month continues to waver around the $3 level.
After holding steady for the last three meetings, the Bank of Canada is set to lower the overnight target by 25 bps to 2.5% on Wednesday.
National Bank in a preview noted OIS markets judge a cut to be likely with about 90% implied easing odds.
National said an inflation report just over 24 hours before the decision is a source of uncertainty, but it doesn’t expect it to derail a cut.
Policymakers, National Bank noted, can cite an accumulation of weak data, most prominently jobs data but also GDP, in justifying a cut.
It said there may be an acknowledgement that resilience looks to be fading.
But at the same time, National added, the BoC is likely to reiterate that there are still some ongoing pressures on underlying inflation which is “assessed to be running around 2.5%”.
Assuming the BoC cuts, a follow-on move in October should be viewed as more likely than not, according to National Bank.
As far as guidance is concerned, National noted, the rate statement may contain a copy-paste from July by reiterating that “there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate”.
However, it said, the BoC will seek to retain optionality by stating that they’ll be weighing upside inflation pressures from tariffs/the reconfiguration of trade against downside inflation pressures from a weaker economy.
National Bank currently expects the BoC to cut again in October.
National noted the BoC won’t publish a new MPR, so we’ll have to wait until October for new projections.
At this point, National sees growth marginally weaker than the BoC expected in July, while headline inflation is tracking a bit firmer.
Despite CORRA setting near 5 bps above target for the last two weeks, National Bank doesn’t expect an additional cut in the deposit rate.
It noted the last 5 bp deposit rate cut came after months of CORRA pressure.
“The lack of overnight repo operations recently suggests there’s little concern, at least for now.
As for balance sheet policy, we are looking for an announcement that T-bill purchases will start soon, in line with earlier guidance.”
Ahead of Tuesday’s inflation report — which is not seen derailing Wednesday’s rate cut — the Scotiabank duo of Rene Lalonde, Director, Modelling and Forecasting and Farah Omran, Senior Economist, noted the post-pandemic surge in inflation raised some questions as to which measure of core inflation was the best indicator of future total inflation, the BoC’s official target.
At that time Scotia found that CPI excluding food, energy and the effect of indirect taxes (CPIXFET) outperformed other measures while having the added benefit of being more intuitive, and easier to communicate to markets and households.
Now, with inflation largely back within the BoC range, a Scotia team has repeated this exercise, comparing CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPIXFET.
Once again, CPIXFET proves to be the most accurate predictor of headline inflation, Lalonde and Omran said.
Price: 29431.02, Change: +147.20, Percent Change: +0.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street notched fresh highs amid bets that a Federal Reserve rate cut Wednesday is a sure thing, with traders waiting to see whether officials will validate expectations for a series of reductions into next year.
A $14 trillion record-breaking run in US equities is heading for an inflection point, with the first rate cut since Donald Trump became president likely to seize the spotlight in a week that will determine policy settings for half of the world’s 10 most-traded currencies.
Bets that Fed easing will keep powering Corporate America put the S&P 500 above 6,600.
The Nasdaq 100 saw its longest advance since 2023.
A jump in Tesla Inc. erased its 2025 drop as Elon Musk’s $1 billion purchase.
Alphabet Inc. hit $3 trillion.
Also aiding sentiment was a framework deal on keeping TikTok running in the US, with Trump saying he’d talk to China’s Xi Jinping Friday.
Treasuries rose, with two-year yields hovering near the lowest since last September.
The dollar slid.
Signs of labor-market weakening and no major inflation surprises have sealed the deal for what money markets project will be a quarter-point Fed cut in September.
The big question, though, will be the pace of easing after that, with prices stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target.
“Now the discussion will turn to how aggressively the Fed will act,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“The Fed may remind everyone that it may be focused on jobs now, but it hasn’t forgotten about the other half of its mandate.”
US policymakers on Wednesday will also release their quarterly update of economic and rate forecasts — known as the dot plot — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his regular post-decision press conference.
In June, Fed officials were narrowly in favor of two quarter-point cuts in 2025.
What traders will really hang on to is the tone of Powell’s press conference and the “dot plot” projections, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“I’ll be watching how the market reacts to any mention of inflation being ‘well anchored’ or the labor market ‘cooling more than expected,” he said.
“That sort of language would be music to the ears of dollar bears.
On the flip side, a cautious Fed that hints at a ‘wait and see’ approach might stall the rally, at least temporarily.”
Before that, Razaqzada noted that there’s also a bit of data to keep things lively before and after the decision.
Tuesday’s retail sales could either reinforce the soft-landing narrative or raise fresh concerns about consumer demand, he said.
In a nod to data that suggests US-based firms are growing reluctant to hire, the Fed will cut by 25 basis points this week, according to Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group.
But to the central bank’s hawks, monetary policy doesn’t present as being tight, he noted.
“And so Jay Powell will offer balance. He’ll highlight again the downside risk to employment growth, but refrain from signaling a (long) string of cuts after September,” Wizman said.
Lon Erickson at Thornburg Investment Management says he doesn’t think we’re ready for another 50 basis-point cut this year like the Fed did when the cutting process first began.
“Considering what we’ve seen with inflation, which came in a bit higher than expected, they’ll continue to be cautious,” he said.
“The wild card remains inflation.
The key question is how that plays out over the rest of the year and whether we end up in the dreaded stagflation-type environment, which would put the Fed in a tough spot.”
Erickson says he’s leaning more towards expecting a rate cut at each of the remaining meetings this year amid a softening labor market.
“Near-term risk is centered on the tension between lagging, weak labor data and the Fed’s response that may not meet the markets’ ‘need for speed,’” Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said.
Still, he recommended buying any dips, and his most bullish scenario sees the S&P 500 climbing to 7,200 points by mid-2026.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said that while the stock market has disregarded weak indicators to post multiple record highs, this trend could reverse once the Fed makes its first cut of 2025.
“Once the easing resumes, equities could turn more cautious for a bit, and price in some more downside risk, in effect repricing the current, potentially complacent, stance,” a team led by Mislav Matejka wrote. 
Bullish traders may have history on their side: The S&P 500 has been 15% higher, on average, a year after cuts resumed following a pause of six months or more, data from Ned Davis Research going back to the 1970s show.
That compares to a 12% gain in the same period after the first cut of an ordinary cycle.
“With the weakening labor market and inflation seemingly under control, we expect a rate cut starting this week and totaling 100 basis points over the next four meetings through January 2026,” said Brian Buetel at UBS Wealth Management.
“The stock market’s recent gains are being driven by strong earnings momentum and declining rates.”
Buetel says he expects modest upside between now and the end of the year, and the bull market continuing to gain steam into 2026, as investors have plenty of earnings momentum runway to work with.
Measures of projected volatility look dormant, and analysts’ profit views for the first half of 2026 are climbing back toward where they stood at the beginning of the year.
Since bottoming in July 2026 earnings estimate for the S&P 500 have climbed in each of the past nine weeks.
At $295 per share, they’re in line with where they stood in late April, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaking of earnings, President Trump again called for an end to quarterly earnings reports, tapping into a long-running fault line in American capitalism over how much information should be disclosed by public companies.
Trump is pushing for a six-month reporting schedule as opposed to the current every three-months format.
Ending quarterly results in favor of a six-month reporting schedule would “save money and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies,” Trump said.
“The lack of transparency will make it harder for investors, but it will also free up company managements to focus on their businesses on a longer-term basis,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
Lost in the shuffle a bit is Friday’s $5 trillion triple- witching expiration, with market watchers downplaying its impact.
Looking back over 35 years reveals that intraday swings in the S&P 500 on expiry weeks tend to be marginally higher than the following week, which challenges the oft touted “free to move” theory.  

Corporate Highlights:
* China ruled that Nvidia Corp. violated anti-monopoly laws with a high-profile 2020 deal, ratcheting up the pressure on Washington during sensitive trade negotiations.
* Google considered selling off parts of its ad tech business to resolve antitrust concerns in Europe and the US, a lawyer for the company said Monday, but a Justice Department proposal to force the sale of its advertising exchange goes much further.
* Walt Disney Co. is bringing all of its marquee comics to a new digital platform and app in partnership with Webtoon Entertainment Inc.
* Live Nation Inc.’s Ticketmaster is being probed by the US Federal Trade Commission over whether it’s done enough to keep bots from illegally reselling tickets on its platform.
* CoreWeave Inc. said its shareholder Nvidia has agreed to buy cloud services valued at $6.3 billion, part of that company’s push to speed up the adoption of artificial intelligence across the economy.
* Alaska Air Group Inc.’s adjusted third-quarter profit will be at the low end of the carrier’s previous estimate of $1 to $1.40 a share, driven down by a July technology outage and rising fuel prices.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. is introducing a program to encourage more retail investors to support the company in proxy votes with an automatic system that threatens to limit the influence of activists.
* Snap Inc. is rolling out an updated version of its operating system for augmented-reality glasses, a move that signals it’s getting closer to launching its first consumer smart glasses next year.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. is launching a closed-end fund to give US retail investors exposure to private companies.
* Kering SA, whose luxury brands include Gucci, Saint Laurent and Balenciaga, said Monday it was the victim of a data breach that was discovered in June, the latest in a string of attacks on the consumer goods sector.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Equity traders, fixated on this week’s anticipated Fed rate cut, are unlikely to be unsettled unless Tuesday’s retail sales report reveals a sharp decline.
Still, the outlook bears watching, as consumer strength has long served as a crucial pillar for both the economy and financial markets.”
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1765
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3609
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 147.39 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $115,335.51
* Ether fell 2.7% to $4,493.87
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.04%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.63%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.54%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.66%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1% to $63.32 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,680.75 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

You must expect great things of yourself before you can do them. –Michael Jordan, b. 1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

September 12, 1609: English explorer Henry Hudson sailed into the river that now bears his name. Go to article.
September 12, 1958: John Kilby tests the first integrated circuit at Texas Instruments, proving electronic components can reside on a single chip: a cornerstone of modern computing.

H.L. Mencken, critic, b. 1880.

A Super Bowl rematch
Many football fans are gearing up to watch a Super Bowl rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Here’s what you should know about Week 2 in the NFL.
The rise of instax cameras
Fujifilm’s instax camera is snowballing in popularity. But why now? And what does its success say about the future of analog experiences in a digital world?

A major milestone in astronomy
Astronomers detected, in unprecedented detail, a collision between two black holes. Their observations confirm predictions made by Albert Einstein and Stephen Hawking.

Banksy mural of judge beating protester is scrubbed from London court
The street artist’s latest mural, depicting a judge beating a protester, has been scrubbed off a London courthouse wall.

Bad Bunny says he didn’t include US in concert tour for fear of ICE raids
Puerto Rican musician Bad Bunny said in an interview that he did not include the US in his 2025-2026 concert tour because of fear that ICE agents would raid the concert venues.
Make art, not war: Filmmaker-turned-artist Ralph Ziman uses millions of hand-threaded beads to turn artifacts of war into artworks. His series “Weapons of Mass Production” recently concluded with his most ambitious work to date: an entire fighter jet.

‘New’ island emerges from melting ice in Alaska NASA’s Earth Observatory has announced that Alaska has a “brand new island” after a retreating glacier lost contact with the Prow Knob mountain landmass in Alsek Lake. Read More. Tiny cryogenic device cuts quantum computer heat emissions by 10,000 times — and it could be launched in 2026 Scientists invent a new device that aims to solve thermal interference from electronic components — one of the biggest barriers to commercial quantum computing. Read More. Interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS could be turning bright green, surprising new photos reveal New photos captured during the recent “blood moon” total lunar eclipse show that the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS may be turning green as it gets closer to the sun. Read More. New reconstructions show piercing eyes of men who lived 2,500 years ago in mysterious Indian civilization The vivid reconstructions are based on two skulls found in urns excavated in 2021 at a burial ground in southern India. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Cered, Hungary
An aerial view, taken with a drone, of morning fog
Photograph: Péter Komka/EPA

Drøbak, Norway
The US aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford on its way into the Oslofjord. The ship is the world’s largest warship
Photograph: Lise Åserud/NTB/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Guijuelo, Spain
The peloton passing through a landscape during the La Vuelta – 80th Tour of Spain 2025, Stage 19 a 161.9km stage from Rueda to Guijuelo
Photograph: Dario Belingheri/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 12^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45834.22	-273.78
		-0.59%
S&P 500	6584.29	-3.18
		-0.05%
NASDAQ	22141.10	+98.03
		+0.44%
TSX	29283.82	-124.07
		-0.42%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44768.12	+395.62
		+0.89%
HANG SENG	26388.16	+301.84
		+1.16%
SENSEX	81904.70	+355.97
		+0.44%
FTSE 100*	9283.29	-14.29
		-0.15%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.188	3.161
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.618	3.604
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0643	4.0206
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6805	4.6535

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7223	0.7225
US $	1.3844	1.3840

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6249	0.6154
US $	1.1734	0.8524

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3629.55	3650.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.69	62.37

Market Commentary:
When I think of the progress we have made during my lifetime in improving the quality of life and when I extrapolate that progress into the future,
I cannot help being optimistic. –Sir John Templeman, 1912-2008.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 29,283.82 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on Aug.
25 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.8%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.1%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest drop, falling 4.5%.
Today, 108 of 210 shares fell, while 96 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 18%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.8%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 31.7% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 18.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.7t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.50% compared with 9.49% in the previous session and the average of 9.77% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -43.8952| -0.5| 8/16
Information Technology | -29.3598| -1.0| 5/5
Industrials | -26.2117| -0.8| 4/23
Materials | -16.2968| -0.4| 19/26
Consumer Discretionary | -8.9093| -0.9| 2/7
Consumer Staples | -6.4267| -0.6| 2/8
Real Estate | -0.9997| -0.2| 12/6
Communication Services | -0.8354| -0.1| 2/2
Health Care | 0.3412| 0.5| 3/0
Energy | 4.1655| 0.1| 28/12
Utilities | 4.3508| 0.4| 11/3
Shopify | -18.4100| -1.1| -1.5| 29.7
RBC | -11.7800| -0.6| 6.7| 15.2
BNS | -9.8500| -1.3| -8.8| 13.7
Manulife Financial | 2.1570| 0.4| -74.9| 0.0
TC Energy | 2.8370| 0.5| -67.2| 8.2
Enbridge | 7.3230| 0.7| -60.5| 11.4
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Friday failed for only the third time in the last 16 sessions to close at record highs, with investors taking profits after recent massive gains for the market while adjusting their portfolios ahead of a big week ahead on interest rates across North America.
Even with elevated commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 124.07 points, or 0.4%, to 29,283.82.
Going into today’s trade, the index was up 2.95% month to date, and near 19% year to date.
Most sectors were higher, with the Battery Metals Index up 2.05%.
On the other side, Info Tech, Industrials and Financials all lost less than 0.8% each.
In his weekly ‘Talking Points’ column, BMO Capital Markets chief economist Doug Porter said “the sustained upswing in equities is especially remarkable given that we are now knee-deep in the most challenging month of the year for stocks”.
He added: “The prospect of lower rates is providing a powerful tailwind, with investors apparently comfortable in the view that growth will downturn.”
On rates, Porter noted that after a lengthy spell on the sidelines, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada are expected to resume cutting rates at next Wednesday’s decisions.
Porter said: “A suddenly darker employment picture is the primary driver for both, overriding somewhat sticky core inflation, and looking past rollicking equity markets.
The Fed’s decision is widely viewed as more of a slam-dunk, as the debate has gravitated from “if” to “how much”, with some small chance of a repeat of last September’s 50 bp (basis point) slice.
The Bank’s (Bank of Canada) decision is a little less clear-cut, with the added complication of the CPI report landing just one day earlier.
Still, in both cases, we expect a low-drama 25 bp trim, but with plenty of questions on what comes next.”
On the Bank of Canada’s decision specifically, Porter said it is not a foregone conclusion, although most believe the pronounced weakness in employment in recent months and the heavy drop in Q2 GDP have weighted the scales to a 25 bp cut next week.
Porter noted there was really no major new news on the domestic front for the BoC to chew on this week.
He said: “While the unveiling of five new “nation-building projects” was intriguing, the reality is that these were all already on the books and unlikely to move the macro needle.”
Porter noted next week’s calendar is much heavier, as the BoC will get a raft of new info in the days prior to the rate decision, highlighted by Tuesday’s CPI, but also including home sales and starts for August.
Porter noted that while the BoC’s preferred measures of core inflation have been stuck around 3% for months now, and likely stayed there in August, the official commentary suggests underlying inflation is ‘around 2.5%.
He said this may be “a nod to the old tried-and-true” core CPI of ex food and energy and indirect taxes, which is at precisely 2.5% (vs. 3.1% stateside).
Porter added: “Besides their own dedicated measures of core running a bit hot, there’s the added frustration of grocery prices chugging along at 3.4% y/y and now even gasoline prices are working against them.
In recent days, pump prices have somehow climbed above year-ago levels nationally, even with the consumer carbon tax having been axed and world oil prices down about 10% y/y.
While the Bank typically looks past swings in gasoline, it’s no help to inflation expectations with pump prices suddenly flaring for no obvious reason.”
Despite that “curveball”, Porter expects the BoC to trim rates and keep the door open for more.
BMO’s call stands at a total of three cuts, taking the overnight rate down to 2.0%.
Porter said the “stickiness” of core CPI is the strongest argument against a more aggressive rate-cut campaign and may even prompt the BoC to move in staggered steps.
“But bigger picture,” he added, “with the jobless rate pushing above 7% and the housing market listing sideways, there’s a good case for the Bank to bring rates to the low end of their neutral range (officially 2.25%-to-3.25%), or even a bit below.
True, monetary policy can’t ‘fix’ the trade war, but it can set the conditions for the rest of the economy to prosper.”
In cutting rates 25 basis points on September 17, the BoC won’t endorse any particular rate path, according to Royce Mendes, Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins.
However, he said, in their “typical intentionally vague” communications style, the Governing Council is very likely to leave the door wide open to another rate reduction in October.
As a result, Desjardins sees market pricing moving to incorporate a greater chance of reaching a 2.00% policy rate.
Mendes said: “The balance of risks has shifted, and markets will likely begin thinking more about downside scenarios for both growth and inflation after hearing from a more dovish central bank.
A subdued employment outlook and benign inflation projection have been core to our Canadian rates forecast for some time.”
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high midafternoon Friday, gaining ground on rate-cut expectations despite a higher dollar.
Gold for December delivery was up $13.80 to US$3,687.0 per ounce, above the Sept. 9 record close of US$3,682.20 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher Friday, rebounding from the prior day’s drop on oversupply worries, after a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil-export port added a fresh risk premium.
WTI crude for October delivery closed up $0.32 to settle at US$62.69 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen up $0.60 to US$66.97.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A strong week on Wall Street ended on a quiet note, with stocks holding near all-time highs and bonds falling as consumer data did little to alter bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September.
Following a relentless surge, the S&P 500 barely budged.
The IPO market kicked into high gear this week, with deals raising over $4 billion in the busiest period since 2021.
A gauge of mega caps jumped Friday, led by Tesla Inc.
Shares of vaccine makers slumped on a report health officials plan to link Covid shots to the deaths of around two dozen children.
A modest slide in Treasuries trimmed an advance that sent the market to its fourth straight up week.
The dollar saw its biggest weekly slide in about a month.
Consumer sentiment hit the lowest since May and long-term inflation expectations rose.
That follows recent data painting a picture of a slowing labor market, with investors leaning heavily in the direction of three rate cuts this year.
“The Fed is pulled in opposite directions by rising inflation on the one hand and a weak job market on the other,” said Bill Adams at Comerica Bank.
“The Fed can be expected to cut rates further in coming months; the question is how much, not if.”
Cracks in the job market will likely prompt the Fed to execute a series of rate reductions beginning next week, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The median respondent sees two cuts by year-end, but a sizable minority — more than 40% — anticipates three reductions. Deutsche Bank AG economists now see three rate reductions in 2025.
They previously expected officials led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell would cut this month and wait to ease again until December.
At Morgan Stanley, economists including Michael Gapen expect four straight rate cuts.
Beyond January, they see officials pausing to assess inflationary impacts.
Once that “noise” clears, they we anticipate further reductions in April and July.
And what about Fed guidance?
Strategists at TD Securities say that’s likely to “lean dovish” next week as a result of labor-market conditions — but not overly so given an inflation overshoot remains an important risk.
They believe the September Summary of Economic Projections will reflect this, continuing to show two cuts in 2025, while shifting data projections in a “slightly hawkish direction.”
“The market is unlikely to be surprised by the cut,” said Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“However, the likely reluctance of Chair Powell and the dots to commit to future cuts could be interpreted as less dovish.”
That could lead rates and the curve to reverse some recent momentum, they noted.
“We’re anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut and expect that the tone of the statement, press conference, and SEP will be interpreted as net dovish,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
As Powell restarts the “normalization process,” Lyngen anticipates that the 2025 dot plot will be lowered to reflect the potential for a 25 basis-point cut at both the October and December meetings.
Financial markets are betting the Fed will still be “ahead of the curve” when it starts lowering borrowing costs, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
The strategist pointed to a rally in banks and rate- sensitive stocks as well as a drop in investment-grade credit spreads, which suggests investors are “saying the Fed can cut with credibility and is cutting into US growth re-acceleration,” he said.
Still, cash drew the bulk of inflows in the past week, bringing the four-week total to $266 billion, BofA said, citing EPFR Global data. US stocks saw outflows of $19 billion.
With the Fed poised to cut rates next week and market sentiment still far from complacent, the path of least resistance remains higher for equities in the near term, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Rate cuts would add to a growing list of tailwinds, from the stimulative budget deal and trade agreements to the earnings boost from a weaker dollar,” he said.
This week’s flood of IPO deals became a barometer for just how frothy the stock market was getting.
All offerings saw strong demand in the formal marketing process before trading began, with many selling bigger stakes than they had initially offered.
The median listing opened 31% above the offer price, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Even with September’s strong start, the IPO market is still recovering from what was seen before the pandemic.
Roughly $29 billion has been raised on US exchanges through Sept. 12, the data compiled by Bloomberg show.
That lags an average of $31.4 billion in the decade before 2020’s boom and pales in comparison to the manic years during the pandemic.

Corporate Highlights:
* The leader of Tesla Inc.’s board said no one other than Elon Musk is capable of running the company as it expands beyond electric vehicles into artificial intelligence and robotics.
* Apple Inc. delayed the launch of its new iPhone Air in mainland China, citing regulatory approval issues.
* Microsoft Corp. avoided a hefty antitrust penalty as the European Union accepted its commitments to settle a probe into the alleged illegal bundling of its Teams video-conferencing app.
* The US Federal Trade Commission is investigating whether Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google misled advertisers that place ads on their websites, according to people familiar with the matter.
* OpenAI said it’s closer to converting into a more traditional for-profit company — nearing the resolution of painful negotiations with top shareholder Microsoft and outlining terms of at least $100 billion in equity for its nonprofit arm.
* The leaders of OpenAI and Nvidia Corp. plan to pledge support for billions of dollars in UK data center investments when they head to the country next week at the same time as President Donald Trump, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* The Federal Aviation Administration said it would fine Boeing Co. $3.1 million for safety violations uncovered over a space of several months between late 2023 and early last year.
** Boeing ’s St. Louis-area defense workers will remain on strike after they rejected a third contract offer from management.
* Tylenol-maker Kenvue Inc. spoke with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a bid to keep the over-the-counter painkiller off a list of autism-causing treatments.
* Union Pacific Corp.’s CEO discussed the railroad’s proposed $72 billion acquisition of rival Norfolk Southern Corp. with Trump as the company seeks regulatory approval for the deal.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. said it has invented a new form of graphite that can increase the life of electric-vehicle batteries by as much as 30%.
* Gemini Space Station Inc. jumped in its trading debut after the cryptocurrency exchange led by the billionaire Winklevoss twins raised $425 million in a packed week for US listings.
* WisdomTree Inc. launched its first tokenized fund that gives investors exposure to private credit, marking the latest attempt by Wall Street to connect fast-growing markets with blockchain technology.
* One of Banco Sabadell SA’s largest shareholders said he won’t accept BBVA SA’s $18 billion takeover bid at the current price, putting more pressure on the prospective buyer to improve it.
* Ocado Group Plc tumbled after Kroger Co. questioned the future of their partnership, raising concerns that the major US grocer could close some existing automated warehouses to cut costs.
* SK Hynix Inc. jumped after the company announced it had completed development of HBM4, the next generation of high- bandwidth memory crucial for artificial-intelligence work.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The S&P 500 is still trading in a ‘good news’ regime, rallying on weak lagging/coincident data that accelerates Fed cuts, or on forward-looking signals pointing to brighter prospects.
Such regimes often support equities for extended periods, but they have also preceded prior market peaks.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1736
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3560
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 147.58 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2% to $116,666.12
* Ether rose 5.5% to $4,661.77
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.06%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.67%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 3.56%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.68%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $62.51 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,644.92 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
I have learned that the countless paths one traverses in one’s life are all equal. 
Oppressors and the oppressed meet at the end, and the only thing that prevails is
that life was altogether too short for both. –Don Juan as quoted by Carlos Castaneda, 1925-1998.
                                                          from The Teachings of Don Juan: A Yaqui Way of Knowledge, 1968.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: 9/11 😢
“The cloudless sky filled with coiling black smoke and a blizzard of paper—memos, photographs, stock transactions, insurance policies—which fluttered for miles on a gentle southeasterly breeze, across the East River into Brooklyn. Debris spewed onto the streets of lower Manhattan, which were already covered with bodies. Some of them had been exploded out of the building when the planes hit. A man walked out of the towers carrying someone else’s leg. Jumpers landed on several firemen, killing them instantly.
“The air pulsed with sirens as firehouses and police stations all over the city emptied, sending the rescuers, many of them to their deaths. (FBI agent) Steve Bongardt was running toward the towers, against a stream of people racing in the opposite direction. He heard the boom of the second collision. “There’s a second plane,” someone cried.” — Lawrence Wright, The Looming Tower.

“Anyway, so we went down. People were very calm, and I think everybody in the stairwell was like this determined, but also aware that—unconsciously aware that something very dangerous was happening, and remain calm because it was the best thing we had to do. They were three flows of people, the regular people like me going down, the people who were coming down from the upper floors, and who were very badly injured. No skin, no hair, just burn. And they were walking or carried down by people, helped by people. And then the third flow of people was of course those security personnel and Fire Department people. Now, those people were exhausted. In some of those eyes you could see that they knew something, that it was dangerous. While there was no panic whatsoever in the stairwell, those people were concentrated, focused on doing their job. And while I was walking down, they were going up to their death. And I was walking down to live. I exited onto the sidewalk that was on Church (Street). I turned around and looked, and I saw the World Trade Center in flames, and those flames were very, very dark orange. The smoke was very, very black against this beautiful sky, and they were big. Suddenly, darkness fell upon us with an unbelievable violence. I looked around a second time. I didn’t see the tower. Instead, I heard a sound that today, I cannot remember. It was so powerful, such a huge sound that I blocked it. It scared me to death, and I cannot bring it back up to consciousness. And when I said, darkness, what was a beautiful day became darker than night. You couldn’t see anymore. Even more striking, there was no more sound. Sound didn’t go through anymore because the air was so thick that it wasn’t vibrating anymore. So after this unbelievable sound of the building collapsing, everything in few seconds turned to be darker than night with no sound, and you couldn’t breathe. I was convinced I was dead, because it’s so big that your brain
cannot process something like this.” — Bruno Dellinger, whose office was on the 47th floor of the North Tower of The World Trade Center.

“I got up and turned on the TV, and there was just this big black hole in the World Trade Center. And there was just smoke billowing out of it. I called my sister Cathy I said, “You might wanna wake up, turn in your TV and take a look at what they’re showing.” The commentator’s saying that it’s an American Airlines plane. And I casually asked Cathy, I said, “Do you know where Betty is?” And she says, “Betty’s supposed to be flying out of Boston.” And I said, “Do you think Betty is on that plane?” We just didn’t know. So I left a phone call on her cellphone, just asking her when she’s landed or anywhere you’re on the ground, to just give us a call and tell us you’re okay. And there was no call from Betty. I called American Airlines, and it was only then that it was confirmed that Betty was on the flight. I just want to add, through your passing, Betty, our family’s gotten very very close. Dad, who’s quite stoic, doesn’t really say a whole lot, man of the family, one day told us that he cries himself to sleep. Even to this day, he just keeps staying up watching TV, hoping somehow that you’ll reappear. And we’re all still waiting for that phone call from you to tell us that you’re okay. We just miss you a whole lot.” — Harry Ong Jr., transcript from the 9/11 Memorial Museum Oral History.

Answering machine: “Message one.”
Brian Sweeney: “Jules, this is Brian—listen, I’m on an airplane that’s been hijacked. If things don’t go well, and it’s not looking good, I just want you to know I absolutely love you, I want you to do good, go have good times, same to my parents and everybody, and I just totally love you, and I’ll see you when you get there. Bye, babe. I hope I call you.”
— 9/11 Memorial Museum, Gift of Julie Sweeney Roth

On Sept. 11, 2001, suicide hijackers crashed two airliners into the World Trade Center in New York, causing the 110-story twin towers to collapse. Another hijacked airliner hit the Pentagon and a fourth crashed in a field in Pennsylvania. Go to article.

Canada’s 2023 wildfires contributed to 87,000 early deaths worldwide, study estimates

The health impacts from Canada’s worst wildfire stretched into Europe, Asia and Africa, a new study reveals. Read More.

‘Incredibly exciting’: NASA claims it’s found the ‘clearest sign’ yet of past life on Mars

NASA scientists have found more intriguing details on speckled Martian rocks spotted by the Perseverance rover. But bringing samples back to Earth will be key. Read More.

Stephen Hawking’s long-contested black hole theory finally confirmed — as scientists ‘hear’ 2 event horizons merge into one

Black holes get bigger as they merge, the LIGO Collaboration confirmed with a new observation that could finally prove a decades-old Stephen Hawking theory. Read More.

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The appearance comes as the UK seeks to strengthen its ties to the Trump administration.

College basketball players banned for sports betting
The NCAA issued a permanent ban to three men’s basketball players after an investigation uncovered that they were involved in sports betting.

The iPhone Air is Apple’s attempt to make smartphones exciting again
An Apple executive described the iPhone Air as being “so thin and light, it seems to disappear in your hands.”

Electronics breakthrough means our devices may one day no longer emit waste heat, scientists say

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PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Doochary, County Donegal, Ireland‘
Mother and lamb pause, their soft fleece set against the rugged, weatherworn landscape.’
Photograph: Marek Parandyk

New York City, US‘
Dusk along the Brooklyn waterfront in late summer.’
Photograph: Travis Antolik

Queensland, Australia
‘The summit of Mount Ngungun at sunset in the Glasshouse Mountains national park.’
Photograph: Graeme Hall
Market Closes for September 11^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46108.00	+617.08
		+1.36%
S&P 500	6587.47	+55.43
		+0.85%
NASDAQ	22043.07	+157.01
		+0.72%
TSX	29407.89	+228.50
		+0.78%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44372.50	+534.83
		+1.22%
HANG SENG	26086.32	-113.94
		-0.43%
SENSEX	81548.73	+123.58
		+0.15%
FTSE 100*	9297.58	+72.19
		+0.78%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.161	3.175
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.604	3.623
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0206	4.0531
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6535	4.7019

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7225	0.7211
US $	1.3840	1.3867

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6236	0.6159
US $	1.1731	0.8524

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3650.75	3649.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.37	63.67

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1789, Alexander Hamilton was sworn in as the nation’s first secretary of the Treasury.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.8%, or 228.5 to 29,407.89 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1% on Aug. 22.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 142 of 210 shares rose, while 67 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
First Majestic Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 10.0%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.5%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.2%
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 32.3% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and rose 5.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 18.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.67t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.49% compared with 9.69% in the previous session and the average of 9.78% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 90.4838| 1.0| 21/3
Industrials | 54.9149| 1.6| 23/6
Materials | 45.1668| 1.0| 41/6
Information Technology | 24.8393| 0.8| 8/2
Consumer Discretionary | 10.8752| 1.2| 8/1
Real Estate | 5.7012| 1.1| 18/1
Communication Services | 3.0856| 0.5| 3/2
Consumer Staples | 0.7219| 0.1| 5/5
Health Care | -0.4791| -0.7| 1/2
Utilities | -0.7876| -0.1| 4/10
Energy | -6.0226| -0.1| 10/29
Shopify | 29.2400| 1.7| 17.9| 31.2
Brookfield Corp | 20.9800| 2.3| 17.0| 15.1
Manulife Financial | 13.6600| 2.7| -41.9| -0.5
Barrick Mining | -2.7680| -0.6| -3.5| 82.5
Suncor | -3.8660| -0.8| -56.7| 13.2
Celestica | -8.5720| -3.0| -2.5| 156.4
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday posted its thirteenth record close in the last 15 sessions, with most sectors higher and the Industrials sector prominent as National Bank noted a bull market is “very much alive now” around it given all the ‘nation building’ cash being made available by the federal government.
Even with commodity prices lower, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 228.50 points to 29,407.89.
This month alone, the TSX has posted a record close in all but one of the eight sessions since the Labour Day weekend.
Traders returned from that holiday pushing the index to a then record finish of 28,615.62 on Tuesday, Sept. 2.
In sectors, the Battery Metals Index was up 2.2%, Base Metals up 2% and Industrials up 1.5%.
There were modest losses for Energy and Health Care.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices weakened on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) again warned supply is running ahead of demand as it boosted its production forecast on new supply from OPEC+ and record output from Western Hemisphere producers.
WTI oil for October delivery closed down $1.30 to settle at US$62.37 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down $1.17 to US$66.32.
Also, gold futures fell even as the dollar weakened, after a higher-than-expected rise in U.S. consumer prices failed to dent expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.
Gold for December delivery was down $8.90 to $3,673.10 per ounce, down from this week’s record high of $3,682.20.
Prime Minister Mark Carney today unveiled the first portion of the much anticipated ‘nation-building’ projects designed to scale and modernize Canadian infrastructure and provide a degree of economic stimulus amid broader economic softness exacerbated by an aggressive U.S. trade policy in recent months.
The first five projects include a liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion project and others investments across the country.
National Bank said the projects will provide a “significant incremental boost to the revenue visibility” of the engineering and construction names in its coverage.
In addition, infrastructure work across the country should also boost heavy equipment demand once funding is finalized, driving volumes for dealers including Finning (FTT.TO), Toromont (TIH.TO) and Wajax (WJX.TO).
For the bank, the bottom line is that “tailwinds are still with us”.
It noted immigration intake concerns and how that could impact infrastructure budgets have been upended by a geopolitical reality where self-sufficiency has become essential.
As a result, the bank said, we saw in early 2025 an upturn in provincial budgets going big on infrastructure.
Now, it added, the Federal government is putting additional heft behind the need and desire to undertake projects that in some cases should have been done years ago.
Nevertheless, National Bank said, “better late than never” and the engineering, construction, equipment space will continue to benefit from the capital inflows.
“Overall, it added, “our generally Outperform-skew and recent upgrade of Bird Construction (BDT.TO) shares, tactical positive positioning on Aecon (ARE.TO) and Toromont, all suggest additional upside from current levels as multiples expand, supported by an influx of capital and materially lessened proportion of pure fixed-price contracts that historically have resulted in negative (eventual) outcomes for the contracting community. We are staying long the group.”
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A relatively tame inflation reading combined with more signs of jobs cooling spurred a rally on Wall Street amid speculation the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates for the first time this year.
The highly anticipated consumer price index showed that while inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, it’s not spinning out of control.
Alongside that report came the usually noisy jobless-claims figures, which jumped to the highest in almost four years, emboldening bets policymakers will cut rates next week in an effort to counter a rapid slowdown in the labor market.
That was enough to boost Treasuries, with the 10-year yield briefly breaching 4%. In a broad advance, all major US equity benchmarks hit all-time highs.
A measure of small caps jumped 1.8%.
In late hours, Adobe Inc. gave a solid outlook.
Gold eclipsed its inflation-adjusted peak set in 1980.
Energy shares joined oil lower.
“It’s clear that inflation is relatively calm, which gives the Fed the flexibility to focus more on stemming ongoing weakness in the labor market,” said Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital.
“We expect the Fed to cut 25 basis points next week and to follow through with another two 25 basis-point cuts this year.”
A slowing jobs market has prompted markets to price a more aggressive trajectory of policy easing.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautiously opened the door to a cut at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium last month, and recent data showed the hiring cooldown extended into August.
“Right now, inflation is a key subplot, but the labor market is still the main story,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“Today’s CPI may appear to offset yesterday’s PPI, but it wasn’t hot enough to distract the Fed from the softening jobs picture.
That translates into a rate cut next week — and, likely, more to come.”
“The claims data were arguably the bigger news,” said Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“We still expect the Fed to cut 25 bps next week, though 50 will likely be discussed.
We continue to look for 75 bps of total cuts this year.”
For the first time in a long time, CPI is being overshadowed on its release day by initial jobless claims, noted Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments.
This dynamic illustrates the Fed’s focus on the “maximum employment” half of the Fed’s dual mandate, with today’s inflation print not hot enough to derail a 25 basis-point rate cut next week, he said.
“Today’s CPI report has been trumped by the jobless claims report,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“If anything, the jump in jobless claims will inject a bit more urgency in the Fed’s decision making, with Powell likely signaling a sequence of rate cuts is on the way.”
While there may be some murmurs within the Fed about the need for a 50 basis-point cut, an emergency-sized reduction is not required, Shah noted. Jobless claims are still quite low compared to 2021 levels, while the broader economic activity data and earnings reports do not signal the US is approaching a recessionary tipping point.
“The weaker the labor market gets, the less inflation matters,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“It’s a balancing act, and the scales are tipping more toward full employment
versus price stability.
That’s especially true after this week’s big downward revisions of the annual employment and last week’s poor non-farm payrolls report.”
While Fed officials are widely expected to cut interest rates next week after a series of weak employment data, firm inflation — if sustained — may complicate the path for additional reductions at subsequent meetings.
To Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, it’s surprising to see how quickly the narrative has shifted.
Whereas before last week’s jobs report the question was whether or not there would be a cut in September, now traders are speculating how many cuts we will see following the first reduction.
“The Fed’s path is clear in the short run, but over the medium term, the fact that core inflation is running quite a bit higher on a month-over-month basis is going to complicate matters,” he said.
The core consumer price index, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.3% from July. When incorporating those components, the overall CPI rose 0.4%, the most since the start of the year.
Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000 in the week ended Sept. 6, the highest since October 2021.
“The labor market is cracking; however, the inflation data are a reminder that a large upfront move is unlikely,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
“The Fed is only likely to deliver a 25bp move.
That is what I think the Fed will do, not what I think they should do.”
At Bankrate, Stephen Kates says concerns over “stagflation” are likely to intensify as the Fed weighs its next move.
“The Fed’s dual mandate of stable prices and full employment remains firmly at odds, limiting their policy flexibility in 2025.
Even if the committee decides to cut rates, it will likely reflect a surrender to economic weakness rather than a clear win over inflation,” he noted.
“Upside surprises on both US inflation and firings have stagflationary undertones,” said Don Rissmiller at Strategas.
“But neither trend looks entrenched yet here.”
To John Kerschner at Janus Henderson Investors, the Fed has now clearly painted itself into a corner.
“Chair Powell is vowing to fight the ever-obvious slowdown in the labor market with rate cuts, while at the same time ignoring the other half of its dual mandate – stable prices, or more specifically, 2% inflation,” Kerschner said.
“We do not believe that the 2% target will be reached for at least several more years barring a recession, which, while always possible with external shocks, is not even close to our baseline forecast.”
For now, policymakers appear to be more concerned about the near-term impact of not easing, signaling that the risk to the labor economy – and overall economic momentum – presents the greater near-term risk, according to Jim Baird at Plante Moran
Financial Advisors.
“It’s that perception that is expected to drive the Fed to trim its policy rate next week. The bigger question is ‘what next?’ Jay Powell’s press conference and the release of updated FOMC projections should go a long way toward providing an answer,” he said.
Bond investors are also interested in whether a decision to cut rates next week is unanimous.
In July, two Fed governors — Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman — dissented the decision to keep rates unchanged in favor of lowering them, and Waller has since said he favors “multiple cuts” in the coming months.
While Thursday’s economic data had little impact on market- implied expectations for next week’s Fed decision, traders priced in a steeper downward path for the federal funds rate in subsequent months.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the latest inflation data support a Fed outlook for three successive cuts in September, October and December to recalibrate rates in a timely manner back down to roughly spot neutral by the end of the year.
That should also help some Fed officials who have been on the fence to signal this in their submission for the Summary of Economic Projections.
“Overall, we think the inflation trajectory is still moderately higher for a time, but the intermediate-term trend in inflation is generally moderating, especially in key areas such as services and shelter,” said Rick Rieder at BlackRock.
“We believe that the Federal Reserve’s forward focus (maybe for the next few years) is likely to be achieving maximum employment – even if the economy does well in aggregate.”
‘Not an Aggressive Pivot’
Rieder says his preference is still owning duration in the front-to-belly of the yield curve, as correlations and fixed income’s hedge effectiveness have improved at the margins here.
While the back end of the curve has been less reliable, and at times more erratic, at this point some exposure to the longer end makes sense as rates decline, he added.
“The Fed may still cut, but this data argues for a gradual path, not an aggressive pivot,” said Gina Bolvin at Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
“For investors, it’s about staying focused on long-term fundamentals, not short-term noise.
The AI optimism may continue to drown out the inflation noise and equity investors will continue to be rewarded long term.”
Veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni raised his year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 6,800 from a previous target of 6,600 as his base case, while assigning a 25% probability that the US stock benchmark could experience a “melt up” to 7,000 by 2025’s close. The gauge finished at 6,587.47 on Thursday.
“If the Fed lowers the federal funds rate on September 17 and signals more rate cuts ahead, we will increase our odds of a melt up and decrease our odds of a correction,” he wrote in a note to clients.

Corporate Highlights:
* Adobe Inc. gave a strong quarterly revenue outlook, suggesting that the software maker is seeing a payoff from its investment in AI features.
* Paramount Skydance Corp., the Hollywood studio taken over in August by independent filmmaker David Ellison, is preparing a bid for rival Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., according to people with knowledge of the matter
* Boeing Co. said it’s falling behind schedule to get its 777X aircraft certified with regulators next year, risking another delay on a program that’s already six years late.
* The Trump administration and Nvidia Corp. “settled on 15%” commission on the company’s H20 chip sales to China, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC.
* Micron Technology Inc. climbed as analysts touted the chipmaker’s growth potential in the data center market, where artificial-intelligence services have stoked demand.
* The Federal Trade Commission ordered Alphabet Inc.’s Google, OpenAI Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and four other makers of artificial intelligence chatbots to turn over information about the impacts of their technologies on kids.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc. said they are dramatically expanding their premium offerings, underscoring the challenges US carriers face filling economy- class cabins after a plunge in demand earlier in the year.
* Kroger Co. raised its full-year sales forecast on food spending that’s remained stable even as consumers seek out bargains.
* Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. received their first buy recommendation from Wall Street on Thursday, as Deutsche Bank said the stocks’ dizzying rally can go further on expectations the mortgage giants will possibly be released from government control in the near future.
* Citigroup Inc.’s chief executive officer said merger activity is rebounding as US companies gain confidence from clearer policy signals, with a recession in the world’s largest economy looking unlikely.
* Bank of New York Mellon Corp. said it’s teamed up with Carnegie Mellon University to advance research into AI, including the use of the technology in applications that power financial services.
* Centene Corp. jumped as the insurer gave upbeat views of its Medicare quality ratings and costs in its Medicaid business, positive signs for the company’s turnaround.
* Opendoor Technologies Inc. surged 80% after announcing the return of its co-founders to the board and a new chief executive officer.
* Oxford Industries Inc., the owner of the Tommy Bahama apparel brand, maintained its annual earnings outlook, despite anticipating a higher tariff hit. In addition, analysts were encouraged by quarter-to-date comparable sales commentary.
* Shares of Figure Technology Solutions Inc. closed 24% above their IPO price after a listing raising $787.5 million, as the blockchain-based credit company joined a cohort of crypto firms in embracing public markets.
* LB Pharmaceuticals Inc. shares closed 15% higher in their trading debut after the biotech raised $285 million in an upsized initial public offering.
* Indian software services giant Infosys Ltd. will buy back as much as 180 billion Indian rupees ($2 billion) worth of shares in an effort to return cash to investors amid a stock-price decline.
* Iberdrola SA agreed to buy an additional 30% stake in Brazilian power distributor Neoenergia SA for about 12 billion reais ($2.2 billion) as it looks to increase investments in electricity networks.
* Novo Nordisk A/S’s new chief executive officer is calling workers back to the office as the Ozempic maker struggles to catch up with Eli Lilly & Co. in the hyper-competitive obesity market.
* Discovery Ltd. plans to expand the roll out of its new artificial intelligence tool — already in use in South Africa and the UK — to clients across its Vitality Network, including in Europe and North America, as it seeks to double its operating income by 2029.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1737
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3578
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 147.17 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $114,460.79
* Ether rose 2.1% to $4,423.1
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.02%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.66%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.61%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.54%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $62.25 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,637.02 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Sorrow was like the wind.  It came in gusts. –Marjorie Kinnan Rawlings, 1896-1953.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day in 1711, the South Sea Co. was chartered in London to trade with Latin America, sell annuities and manage the public debt. It became the heart of the greatest speculative mania Britain had ever seen.
September 10, 1846: Elias Howe is granted a patent for the sewing machine, revolutionizing garment production with a practical lock-stitch mechanism.
September 10, 1919: Nearly a year after the end of World War I, General Pershing is welcomed home with a parade down Fifth Avenue, NYC, from 107^th St. to Washington Square.
September 10, 1948: American-born Mildred Gillars, the wartime radio broadcaster known as “Axis Sally,” was indicted in Washington, D.C., for treason. Go to article.

Arnold Palmer, golfer, b. 1929.
Stephen J. Gould, biologist, b.1941.

Oliver North marries Fawn Hall, his document-shredding secretary at the center of Iran-Contra scandal
Two key figures in the Iran-Contra affair quietly married last month, nearly 40 years after the scandal rocked US politics and President Ronald Reagan’s administration.
Everything Apple announced at its big event
Apple announced the iPhone Air, iPhone 17 and new wearables during its annual hardware event on Tuesday. Check out the product upgrades here.

This photographer has been sneaking into fashion shows for a decade
Fashion and rebellion — what a fun combo. Read about a man who has snuck into prestigious events for nearly a decade. 

Building a modern metropolis using a centuries-old technique
Bamboo scaffolding has become synonymous with Hong Kong’s skyline, and it won’t be going anywhere anytime soon.

Marijuana may cause chromosomal defects in human egg cells
Higher levels of THC may cause chromosomal malformations in human eggs that may lead to infertility and miscarriages, a new study found.

Scientists are finally learning what’s inside mysterious ‘halo’ barrels submerged off Los Angeles

At first thought to hold the pesticide DDT, some mysterious barrels dumped in the deep sea near Los Angeles actually contain caustic alkaline waste that stops most life from living nearby. Read More.

NASA rover spots bizarre ‘turtle’ hiding among ancient rocks on Mars

NASA’s Perseverance rover has photographed a peculiar rock formation that looks eerily like a turtle poking its head out from its protective shell. Read More.

Scientists create first-ever visible time crystals using light — and they could one day appear on $100 bills

The visible patterns produced by the time crystals could be used for data storage and anti-counterfeiting designs. Read More.

Microsoft’s new light-based computer is inspired by 80-year-old technology — it could make AI 100 times more efficient

Microsoft’s latest computing system uses micro-LEDs and camera sensors to perform calculations. Read More.

‘We have basically destroyed what capacity we had to respond to a pandemic,’ says leading epidemiologist Michael Osterholm

Live Science spoke with leading epidemiologist Michael Osterholm about his new book, “The Big One,” which discusses the next pandemic and how to mitigate its harm. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dunbar, Scotland
Laura van der Heijden, a cellist and artist in-residence at this year’s Lammermuir festival, performs in a rock arch near Dunbar. The classical music festival brings together musicians from around the world to play in beautiful locations across East Lothian
Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

Hyderabad, India
‘Water overflowing from a rooftop tank.’
Photograph: Dhruv Pulipaka

​​​​​​​Patagonia, Chile
‘Patagonia has many dramatic mountains, especially the Torres del Paine. Lago Gray is a glacial meltwater lake with a shingle bar that you can walk across to admire the scenery.’
Photograph: Philip Robins
Market Closes for September 10^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45490.92	-220.42
		-0.48%
S&P 500	6532.04	+19.43
		+0.30%
NASDAQ	21886.06	+6.57
		+0.03%
TSX	29179.39	+116.38
		+0.40%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44057.97	+220.30
		+0.50%
HANG SENG	26200.26	+262.13
		+1.01%
SENSEX	81425.15	+323.83
		+0.40%
FTSE 100*	9225.39	-17.14
		-0.19%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.175	3.229
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.623	3.677
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0531	4.0875
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7019	4.7311

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7211	0.7222
US $	1.3867	1.3846

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6225	0.6163
US $	1.1700	0.8547

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3649.55	3632.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.67	62.63

MARKET COMMENTARY:
The two most powerful warriors are patience and time. -Leo Tolstoy, 1828-1910.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 116.38 to 29,179.39 in Toronto.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 4 of 11 sectors gained; 131 of 210 shares rose, while 77 fell.
Suncor Energy Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.1%.
Iamgold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 9.1%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 18%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 8.6%
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 31.3% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.5% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 18.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.65t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.69% compared with 9.71% in the previous session and the average of 9.79% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 70.1611| 1.6| 38/8
Energy | 59.3815| 1.3| 33/7
Financials | 35.5087| 0.4| 15/8
Utilities | 1.8998| 0.2| 8/6
Health Care | -0.2385| -0.3| 1/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.3079| 0.0| 4/5
Real Estate | -2.0339| -0.4| 7/12
Consumer Staples | -3.1967| -0.3| 3/7
Industrials | -6.4098| -0.2| 17/12
Communication Services | -7.8737| -1.2| 2/3
Information Technology | -30.5030| -1.0| 3/7
Suncor | 15.2100| 3.1| 6.3| 14.1
Brookfield Corp | 12.3400| 1.3| -13.7| 12.6
Celestica | 10.1800| 3.7| 13.5| 164.4
Thomson Reuters | -6.6580| -2.9| -20.7| 2.4
Shopify | -13.7200| -0.8| 6.6| 28.9
Constellation | Software | -22.0900| -3.5| -8.1| -0.5
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday posted its 12th record close in the last 14 sessions, even as Rosenberg Research is among those still not ruling out the chances of a recession in North America.
Buoyed by high commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 116.38 points, or 0.4%, to 29,179.39.
The TSX went into today’s session up about 17.5% year to date, and 1.75% month to date.
Most sectors were higher, led by Energy up 1.9% and Base Metals up 1.2%.
No sector was down by as much as 0.7%.
Reflecting the sector gainers, in commodities gold traded at a record high for a third-straight day midafternoon on Wednesday, edging up after a report showed U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in August, clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week. Gold for December delivery was up $1.90 to US$3.384.10 per ounce, rising off Tuesday’s record close.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose on heightened geopolitical tensions, despite signs supply is climbing above demand and U.S. inventory data showing another build.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed up $1.04 to settle at $63.67 per barrel, while November Brent crude was last seen up $1.16 to $67.55.
In stock news, Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO, CVE) does not plan to raise its bid for oil-sands producer MEG Energy (MEG.TO), despite a higher offer from Strathcona Resources (SCR.TO), chief executive Jon McKenzie told Bloomberg News on Wednesday.
“We are in a world where we think we’ve got the only viable bid going forward,” McKenzie said in an interview, according to the report.
Reuters noted the takeover saga began in May when Strathcona launched a C$5.93 billion hostile bid for MEG Energy.
Cenovus countered this with a cash-and-shares agreement in August.
Since then, Strathcona has raised its stake in MEG to 14.2%, aiming to vote against the deal, and on Monday sweetened its original offer.
Strathcona’s revised offer values MEG at C$30.86 per share, compared with Cenovus’ nearly C$28.00 bid.
Meanwhile, the head of Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM.TO, WPM) says development of four new projects this year sets the company up well as gold prices continue to skyrocket towards US$4,000 an ounce.
Randy Smallwood, Wheaton’s chief executive said in a BNN Bloomberg interview on Tuesday afternoon a 10% increase in gold prices could lead to a 14-15% bump
in cash flow. BNN noted that can make it an attractive option for investors to capitalize on rising gold prices. “I don’t think we could have timed it any better,” said Smallwood.
“Stronger prices here in the second half of the year with combined with new mines coming on, sets us up very well.”
Still, despite all the recent record closes for the broad stock market, a revival in mergers and acquisitions, and elevated commodity prices, veteran market watchers like David Rosenberg continue to say the “uncertainty” theme remains relevant.
He published a note to that effect today that may be of interest to Canadians who invest across North America entitled ‘The Bull Market….In Uncertainty”.
In it Rosenberg said: “Uncertainty may have come off peak levels, but whether it pertains to the overall economy, trade, fiscal, or immigration policy, the measures across the board represent anywhere from two to four standard deviation events.
As market pundits, we have trouble squaring this with razor thin credit spreads and sky high price to earnings multiples, and as such, remain defensive in our investment approach.”
According to Rosenberg, the stock market is being fueled by sentiment, leverage, and momentum.
“There is this pervasive sentiment that the business cycle has been repealed, and that recessions no longer exist,” he said.
But he noted as an example, year over year trend in nonfarm payrolls has slowed to below a 1.0% rate, and that level, or nearby, was associated with all the prior 12 recessions back to 1948.
The only two ‘asset classes’ that seem to recognize this risk are the dollar and the Treasury market, he added.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks higher and bond yields lower as an unexpected inflation decline reinforced speculation the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates in September.
Just a week ahead of the Fed decision, the first drop in producer prices in four months soothed worries that elevated inflation would create a challenge for policymakers trying to prevent a jobs downturn.
The market reaction was immediate, and traders almost fully priced in three rate reductions in 2025.
The S&P 500 hit fresh all-time highs, with the artificial- intelligence trade in full swing after Oracle Corp.’s blockbuster cloud outlook sent the shares up 36% and spurred an industry surge.
Two-year yields fell two basis points to 3.54%.
The producer price index decreased 0.1% in August from a month earlier and July’s figure was revised down.
From the year before, it rose 2.6%.
Economists pay close attention to PPI as some components are used to calculate the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
President Donald Trump called for the Fed to make a “big” rate cut after the data.
“The worst-case scenario on inflation isn’t playing out,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“The doves will be happy to see the year-over-year number back below 3%.
Combined with the weak jobs data recently, this keeps us on track for rate cuts.
However, the speed and intensity might depend more on the big consumer index tomorrow.”
The extent to which companies pass the burden from tariffs on to consumers will be key in shaping the path for interest rates.
In fact, attention will soon shift to consumer price data due Thursday.
Forecasters expect another elevated advance in the core measure, which excludes food and energy.
“Tomorrow’s CPI will carry more weight, but today’s PPI print essentially rolled out the red carpet for a Fed rate cut next week,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“After last week’s jobs report, though, the market was already expecting the Fed to begin an easing cycle, so it remains to be seen how much of a near-term impact this will have on sentiment.”
The downside surprise to the PPI in August was driven by a compression of trade margins, reversing their unexpected widening in July, and therefore overstates the softness of producer prices, according to Stephen Brown at Capital Economics.
“Nonetheless, the big picture remains that tariff effects are feeding through only slowly,” he said.
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, firms may be trying to stay competitive to maintain market-share.
At the end of the day, tariff related pass-through has not been as much as anticipated, he noted.
“I think the Fed should cut 50 basis points next week — but I don’t think they will,” Dutta noted.
“The doves on the FOMC have a very strong case to make.
The hawks will argue that the unemployment rate is still low, financial conditions are loose, and that there is still upward inflation pressure in front of us due to tariffs.”
The better-than-expected and relatively benign producer price report is both good news and bad news, according to Scott Helfstein at Global X.
“On the positive side, tariffs are not having a drastic impact on company supply chains in aggregate.
Alternatively, the slowing in producer inflation could also signal a softening economy.
The Fed is likely to take notice but will still likely deliver a modest rate cut in September,” he said.
“Nothing in today’s data should sway the Fed from cutting rates next week,” said Mark Streiber at FHN Financial.
“Corporate profit margins surged after the pandemic and were hovering near all-time highs before the tariffs were implemented.
Tariffs have taken a bite out of those margins, but businesses certainly can absorb the blow.”
If profit margins were tighter to begin with, he noted, businesses likely would have shed employees to save on costs.
Disappointing employment data released Friday validated fears that the US labor market may be on the brink of a downturn and lifted expectations for how much the Fed will lower interest rates this year.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautiously opened the door to a cut
at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium last month, and more recent data showed the hiring slowdown extended into August.
“Investors are now contemplating the extent to which August’s payrolls, the benchmark revisions, and PPI should drive a conversation about a 50 bp cut next week,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
“We are still in the 25 bp cut camp.
For a half-point to be a real possibility, tomorrow’s core-CPI move will need to underwhelm.”
PPI data is good news for the Fed and marginally raises the probability of three sequential cuts in September, October and December, said according to Marco Casiraghi and Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“A few more inflation prints would not settle the question of whether the Fed should look through the tariff shock, but risks have already moved into better balance and Powell is sensitive to downside risks to the labor market,” they said.
“Core PPI declines further provide cover for a more accommodative monetary policy,” said Eric Teal at Comerica Wealth Management.
“The stagnant job market will take precedence as the Fed prepares to reduce rates and stimulate the economy, although we continue to believe the consumer is significantly less rate sensitive than in the past. So, more cuts are likely on the horizon.”
Consistently above-target inflation readings may limit its scope to deliver the more aggressive rate cuts that the jobs market side of the dual mandate prescribes, according to Matthew Weller at Forex.com and City Index.
“In terms of a potential market reaction, a surprise drop in this week’s CPI report could alleviate that tension and put a 50 basis-point rate cut firmly on the table,” he said.
Brown at Capital Economics says easing labor market conditions mean the Federal Open Market Committee is set to vote for a 25 basis-point cut next week — although “a rare triple dissent” in favor of a 50 basis-point move could steal the headlines.
“We expect the new Summary of Economic Projections to show only a slightly faster and deeper pace of easing than before, leaving the projected interest rate path above market pricing, he said.
The combination of a moderation in jobs growth and still manageable inflation should keep the Fed on track to cut rates, with a 25-basis-point cut expected in September to be followed by three additional consecutive cuts of the same size by January 2026, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Against this backdrop, she maintains her positive view on quality bonds and continue to favor medium duration Treasuries as part of a well-diversified portfolio.
Falling rates should further support the rally in equities, with the S&P 500 expected to finish 2025 near 6,600 and reach 6,800 by end-June 2026.
The gauge is currently above 6,500.
“This steady market rally shows that investors are increasingly forward-looking, pricing in a blend of policy accommodation, improving productivity dynamics, and the potential for fiscal support,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
In many ways, investors are leaning into the idea that slower labor momentum doesn’t necessarily derail corporate earnings or broader growth potential, but rather that supportive tailwinds will offset the recent wave of slowing economic data, as evidenced by easier financial conditions, he noted.
Consumer price data due Thursday will offer insights on the extent to which tariffs made their way to American households in August. Core CPI, a measure of underlying inflation excluding food and fuel, probably rose 0.3% for a second month, according
to the Bloomberg survey median estimate.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows investors expect an in-line inflation report tomorrow, with most respondents saying core CPI is on a Fed-friendly glide path.
Options traders are betting the S&P 500 will post a modest swing of nearly 0.7% in either direction following the CPI report, according to Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup Inc.’s head of US equity trading strategy.
That’s less than the average realized CPI Day move of 0.9% over the past year, and below expectations for the next jobs report on Oct. 3. And Kaiser thinks the implied move is high.
Wall Street forecasters are rushing to boost their outlook for the S&P 500 amid prospects for Fed cuts, robust corporate earnings and renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence.
Deutsche Bank AG’s Binky Chadha raised his year-end target to 7,000, saying half the estimated direct impact of tariffs has already flowed through into inflation. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas warned of risks in the short-term from inflation but said the gauge could rally to about 7,000 points by early next year amid easing policy headwinds, lower rates and record payouts.
With stocks pressing to new highs, the equity risk premium has all but disappeared, hinting that large- and small-cap stocks are no more compelling than Treasuries or corporate bonds, according to Michael Casper and Christopher Cain at Bloomberg Intelligence.
The S&P 500 equity risk premium — the spread between the earnings yield on stocks and the yield on the 10-year Treasury — is negative and well below its long-term average.
While the premium isn’t a great predictor of forward returns, it still hints that stocks are expensive relative to bonds.
“To sustain multiples at such extremes, rates will likely have to fall — putting the onus on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to deliver if stocks are going to continue to rally,” they said.
“Past periods of negative risk premia have been met with mixed returns, in aggregate suggesting that stock gains could be poised to slow.”
Stocks will brush off inflation risks and a weaker jobs outlook to end the year on a high note, according to the latest Markets Pulse survey.
Two-thirds of the 116 respondents to a poll conducted Sept. 5-10 say the S&P 500 will continue rallying in 2025, and a majority of that group anticipates gains will be driven by signals from the Fed indicating further interest-rate cuts before the year ends.
Equities are forecast to post better volatility-adjusted returns than bonds over the next month, with survey respondents torn on whether 10-year yields will be higher or lower in the weeks ahead.
With the Nasdaq 100 now nearly doubling since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management thinks investors are right to be weighing up what the next big catalysts might be to sustain the tech rally.
Oracle’s blockbuster guidance came after a brief period where investors were questioning the staying power of AI’s explosive growth and rotating out of some of the trend’s largest companies.
That trade is back on Wednesday with other AI winners such as Broadcom Inc., Palantir Technologies Inc., Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Nvidia climbing alongside Oracle.
“With robust tech earnings momentum and imminent Fed rate cuts ahead, we do not see elevated valuations as a reason to shy away from diversified exposure to the sector,” he said.
“Investors should consider using near-term volatility to build exposure within the AI theme.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Oracle Corp. soared after the company gave an aggressive outlook for its cloud business, cementing the software maker’s place in the race to support demand for artificial-intelligence computing.
* Klarna Group Plc shares jumped in their trading debut after the company and some of its backers raised $1.37 billion in an initial public offering that signals the market for new listings has room to run.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co., Fifth Third Bancorp and Barclays Plc are among banks bracing for potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in combined losses from loans tied to subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
** Tricolor Holdings, a used car seller and provider of subprime loans that focuses on undocumented immigrants in the US Southwest, filed to liquidate in bankruptcy.
* Boeing Co. has reached a tentative agreement with striking hourly workers at its St. Louis-area defense factories that improves wages and restores a signing bonus.
* GameStop Corp. jumped after the video-game retailer reported Hardware and Accessories net sales that beat the average analyst estimate.
* Chewy Inc. sank after the retailer of pet products gave an outlook that failed to live up to high expectations.
* Chip-design software maker Synopsys Inc. tumbled after the company warned that US export restrictions are contributing to a slowdown in China.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian said that consumer confidence has rebounded following a “big impact” from tariffs and the economic upheaval earlier this year.
* Uber Technologies Inc. customers will be able to book Blade’s helicopter and seaplane services directly within the Uber app as early as next year, as part of an expansion of the ride-hailing company’s partnership with Joby Aviation Inc.
* Lyft Inc. is piloting autonomous rides in Atlanta with a safety driver on board, a long-planned launch meant to help it better compete against Waymo and Uber.
* Following the success of its latest Starship test, SpaceX is readying a bigger version of the rocket that should be fully reusable next year, Elon Musk said.
* Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is venturing into Asia for the first time, with plans to open locations in South Korea and Singapore in 2026.
* Baker Hughes Co. plans to increase production of its high- performing, gas-fired power generation turbines as the artificial intelligence boom boosts electricity demand from data centers, Chief Executive Officer Lorenzo Simonelli said in an interview.
* Brookfield Asset Management said it has already secured investors and deals for its new artificial intelligence infrastructure strategy, as it positions itself to gain from what it sees as a multitrillion-dollar opportunity.
* Cenovus Energy Inc.’s top executive said the company doesn’t plan to increase its takeover offer for oil sands producer MEG Energy Corp., despite a higher rival bid from Strathcona Resources Ltd.
* Vimeo, the online video platform that has struggled to compete against the likes of YouTube and TikTok, agreed to a $1.38 billion, all-cash takeover by European mobile app developer Bending Spoons.
* Merck & Co. is terminating its early drug research in the UK and pulling out of plans for a £1 billion ($1.4 billion) London research hub, marking the latest setback for the country’s domestic pharmaceutical industry.
* Novo Nordisk A/S is slashing its workforce by 11% and pledging to move faster to catch up with Eli Lilly & Co. in the obesity market. That may mean making the company more like its US rival.
* A group led by BlackRock Inc.’s Global Infrastructure Partners unit has arranged a roughly $10 billion financing package for its planned investment in Saudi Aramco natural gas infrastructure, people familiar with the matter said.
* Nio Inc. raised about $1 billion through a share sale, as the Chinese electric-vehicle maker takes advantage of a recent stock rally to fund its growth.
* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is committing another 1 billion yuan ($140 million) of incentives to drive more traffic to one of its most popular online services, cranking up the heat on JD.com Inc. and Meituan in their ongoing battle for Chinese consumers
What Bloomberg’s Strategists say…
“Preliminary August spending estimates point to a cooling from July’s pace, hinting at emerging cracks in consumer momentum.
Equity traders, however, will likely be inclined to look past this in anticipation of rate cuts.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
* Oracle rose 36%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1701
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3532
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.40 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $113,641.83
* Ether rose 0.5% to $4,324.74
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.04%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.63%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.54%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.69%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.8% to $63.78 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,641.89 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one’s courage. –Anaïs Nin, 1903-1977.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Tangents: Happy Tuesday.

September 9, 490 BC: Battle of Marathon.
September 9, 1562:  The 1562 map of the Americas, created by Spanish cartographer Diego Gutiérrez, which applied the name California for the first time.
September 9, 1850 California became the 31st state of the union. Go to article. 
September 9, 1947: The first recorded computer bug is logged when a moth is found in  Harvard’s Mark II relay, giving birth to the term still used in computing.

Leo Tolstoy, writer, b. 1828.
Hugh Grant, actor, b. 1960.
Adam Sandler, actor, b. 1966.
Rachel Hunter, actress, b. 1966.

William the Conqueror, d. 1087.

Photos: Blood moon captivates skywatchers
Photographers recently captured the splendor of a total lunar eclipse, which turned the full moon a reddish hue. View CNN’s photo gallery here.

Video: Man attempts to break beer-carrying record
It wasn’t what he hoped for, but still impressive. Ale’s well that ends well.

China’s Labubus are the must-have toy of the year. So are the fakes
Chinese authorities have removed more than 1.8 million counterfeit Labubu dolls from the market. Yet the dolls and their fakes continue to be sold in large quantities both domestically and overseas.

New photos of interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS reveal its tail growing before our eyes

New images reveal interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS beginning to grow a signature tail as it zooms closer to the sun ahead of a close encounter with Earth this fall. Read More.

‘Extraordinary’ Roman helmet from war-ending battle found in the sea off Sicily

Archaeologists recovered the “Montefortino”-style helmet in an underwater excavation in the Aegadian Islands off the coast of Sicily. Read More.

‘Blood moon’ gallery: Stunning snaps from last night’s total lunar eclipse

A “blood moon” hovered above parts of the globe last night. And while North America missed out, we’ve rounded up some of the best photographs of September 2025’s total lunar eclipse. Read More.

Do you think we should stop the progress of AI before it becomes a threat to our species?

Many believe that the risks of an evolving artificial intelligence far outweigh the benefits. Do you think we should halt development in case it’s too dangerous for humanity to handle? Read More.

A scalding hot ‘sand battery’ is now heating a small Finnish town

Engineers created a sand battery that they say will slash the carbon emissions in Pornainen, Finland, by 70% — it uses renewables to heat the sand to more than 1,000 degrees Fahrenheit. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

New Banksy Museum opens in Madrid
A museum dedicated to the British urban artist Banksy has opened in Madrid, Spain, featuring 170 life-sized reproductions of his works
Pablo Cuadra/Getty Images

Top 10 most-sighted butterflies in 2025’s Big Butterfly Count
Gatekeepers took the number one spot in the count last year. While the number of Gatekeepers spotted this year has remained similar to last year, the population has suffered a decline of around a quarter over the past 15 years. Gatekeepers are so named as they are often spotted around gates and hedgerows where there is an abundance of flowers.
Photograph: William Cave/Guardian Community

Anglesey, Wales
‘As part of Amlwch Viking festival, about 200 re-enactors paraded down the hill with fire lanterns, calling out to Odin as 1,000 spectators cheered them on from the other side of the harbour.’
Photograph: Ian ‘Yan’ Rees
Market Closes for September 9^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45711.34	+196.39
		+0.43%
S&P 500	6512.61	+17.46
		+0.27%
NASDAQ	21879.49	+80.79
		+0.37%
TSX	29063.01	+35.28
		+0.12%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	43459.29	-184.52
		-0.42%
HANG SENG	25938.13	+304.22
		+1.19%
SENSEX	81101.32	+314.02
		+0.39%
FTSE 100*	9242.53	+21.09
		+0.23%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.229	3.209
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.677	3.660
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0875	4.0398
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7311	4.6922

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7222	0.7246
US $	1.3846	1.3800

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6212	0.6168
US $	1.1709	0.8540

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3632.65	3594.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.63	62.26

Market Commentary:
All the good things of life are available to us in the spiritual garden which is our own thoughts.  Whatever we plant and encourage will grow and manifest
itself in our lives. –Sir John Temopleton, July 1984.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.1% at 29,063.01 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Teck Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 11.5%.
Today, 99 of 210 shares rose, while 107 fell; 4 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 18%, heading for the best year since 2024
* This quarter, the index rose 8.2%
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 30.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.6% in the past 5 days and rose 4.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6 on a trailing basis and 18.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.64t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.71% compared with 9.83% in the previous session and the average of 9.80% over the past month

Index Points
Energy | 45.0160| 1.0| 31/9
Financials | 33.2243| 0.4| 16/8
Materials | 3.2766| 0.1| 13/34
Utilities | 1.9218| 0.2| 10/3
Health Care | -0.2392| -0.3| 1/2
Consumer Discretionary | -1.2739| -0.1| 4/5
Communication Services | -1.5330| -0.2| 0/4
Real Estate | -1.7000| -0.3| 6/13
Consumer Staples | -2.8148| -0.3| 4/5
Industrials | -15.1000| -0.4| 10/18
Information Technology | -25.4791| -0.8| 4/6
Teck Resources | 17.2700| 11.5| 461.1| -7.2
TD Bank | 14.5900| 1.2| 21.1| 36.5
Canadian Natural |Resources | 14.0700| 2.3| 147.5| -3.5
Canadian National | -8.9800| -1.8| 49.1| -11.5
Canadian Pacific | Kansas | -9.7650| -1.4| 5.4| -0.5
Shopify | -26.1700| -1.5| -6.3| 30.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks hit all-time highs on hopes the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to curb a jobs downturn, with traders gearing up for inflation data that will test the market’s conviction.
While most shares in the S&P 500 fell, the gauge rose amid gains in all big techs but Apple Inc. – which sank 1.5% after introducing its iPhone 17, including an already expected skinnier model.
In late hours, Oracle Corp. surged after posting a huge jump in bookings.
A slide in bonds halted a four-day rally.
Oil climbed after an Israeli attack in Qatar revived fears of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
In the wake of more data showing labor-market cooling, investors geared up forkey inflation figures due in the next couple of days.
The reports will help set the tone for next week’s Fed meeting as well as the scope of easing through the end of 2025.
And that will certainly determine whether Wall Street can extend this month’s gains.
With money markets almost fully projecting three Fed cuts this year, the bar is high for both the producer and the consumer price indexes.
A worse-than-expected inflation increase would complicate policy decisions at a time when pressure is mounting to provide economic relief through lower rates, according to Stephen Kates at Bankrate.
“It is clear the economy is caught between a rock and a hard place – or more accurately, between a labor shock and a hot pace,” he said.
To Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, while a deteriorating jobs picture should make it easier for the Fed to cut rates, it could also throw some cold water on the recent market rally.
“Worse still, if the CPI shows a worsening trend of higher inflation on Thursday, then the market will begin worrying about ‘stagflation’.”
The most relevant question now becomes the extent to which the August inflation data will reshape the market’s expectations for the Fed’s decision next week, according to Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
“The Fed is cutting 25 basis points – barring a far more dramatic downshift in the trajectory of realized inflation, in which case a half-point cut could be on the table,” they said.
“We’re solidly in the quarter-point camp and view the August inflation update as more meaningful for the conversations about where the Fed cutting cycle ends, not how it begins.”
In the run-up to the inflation reports, government data showed US job growth was far less robust in the year through March than previously reported.
The number of workers o payrolls will likely be revised down by a record 911,000, or 0.6%, according to the preliminary benchmark revision out Tuesday.
The final figures are due early next year.
US INSIGHT: Jobs Revised Down by 911,000 — In One Chart Jamie Dimon said the record revision to US payrolls data is further proof that the US economy is battling a slowdown.
“The economy is weakening,” the JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief executive officer said in an interview with CNBC Tuesday.
“Whether that is on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”
A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight the need to ease rates, said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial, who says investors should expect the Fed to officially resume its rate-cutting campaign at the next meeting.
“For now, we assume a modest net dovish impact: firming some the likelihood of three successive cuts in September, October and December without making this anything close to a lock,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
To Gary Schlossberg at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, weakening job growth, underscored by Tuesday’s report, should be viewed against support from ample market liquidity, the rally in stocks and the Fed’s prospective rate cuts in pointing toward an
economic “soft patch” rather than a sustained economic slowdown.
“The shallow growth slowdown that we are anticipating is fully consistent with our recommended tilt toward more liquid, large-cap stocks and other higher-quality sectors of the financial market, as the economy navigates a period of slowing growth ahead of a forecasted recovery in 2026,” he said.
A quarter-point interest-rate cut by the Fed next week would be the most-favorable scenario for financial assets, with a deeper reduction running the risk of alarming investors, according to Charles Schwab Corp.’s Omar Aguilar.
If policymakers keep borrowing costs unchanged, Wall Street will likely react “fairly negatively” given a rate reduction is all but priced in, the CEO and CIO of Schwab Asset Management said at the Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach, California.
If the Fed goes big — cutting interest rates by 50 basis points — investors could perceive that as a sign the economy is in trouble.
US PREVIEW: PPI to Show Accelerating Airfares, Stock Rally The government will release its latest consumer price index ahead of the Fed’s Sept. 16-17 policy meeting.
Core CPI, a measure of underlying inflation excluding food and fuel, probably rose 0.3% in August for a second month, according to the Bloomberg survey median estimate.
Economists will parse the extent to which higher US import duties are filtering through to consumers.
So far, many companies have made an effort to refrain from hiking prices in order to maintain sales.
Options traders are betting the S&P 500 will post a modest swing on Thursday following the CPI report, with a projected move of nearly 0.6% in either direction, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
That’s well below an average realized move of 1% over the past year.
“Given the recent softness in the labor market data, even if we were to see elevated inflation data this week, we still think the Fed would cut rates next week,” said Chris Kampitsis at Barnum Financial Group.
The Fed is likely more focused on the employment market rather than inflation at this time.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Nvidia Corp., whose chips and systems are at the heart of the artificial intelligence computing boom, said it plans to offer a new product designed to handle demanding tasks such as video generation and software creation.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google cloud computing division has up to $106 billion in commitments from existing customer contracts that it has yet to fulfill, according to the division’s Chief Executive Officer, Thomas Kurian.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s third-quarter trading revenue could climb by a percentage in the “high teens” from a year earlier, well ahead of the 8.2% jump analysts currently expect.
* Boeing Co. delivered 57 commercial aircraft in August, its best performance for the month since 2018, in the latest sign of steadying factory operations as the US plane maker targets faster production rates.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. said corporate travel has bounced back from a dip earlier in the year, with signs that the trend will continue through the rest of 2025.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. said it expects most of its Medicare Advantage members to be in highly rated plans that earn bonus payments next year, a boon for its health insurance business.
* Humana Inc. shares dropped after reports suggested that criteria for Medicare health plans to earn bonus payments appeared to get more challenging.
* Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. said it’s suspending store remodels as the restaurant chain continues to walk back planned changes such as a new logo that hurt the shares.
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc. won a $40 billion mandate from Shell Plc to oversee pension assets for the energy company, in one of the biggest outsourced deals of its kind.
* Nebius Group NV shares soared on Tuesday after signing an artificial intelligence infrastructure deal worth as much as $19.4 billion with Microsoft Corp.
* Anglo American Plc has agreed to acquire Canada’s Teck Resources Ltd., creating a more than $50 billion company in one of the biggest mining deals in over a decade.
* American Express Co. grew its global merchant acceptance rate by more than 16% in the 12 months through June as it continues to invest in the domestic and international network of places that accept its credit cards.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. are bullish on China’s future appetite for liquefied natural gas even if Russia succeeds in adding another pipeline to the Asian nation.
* Lazard Inc. is aiming to station half a dozen bankers in its newly opened office in Abu Dhabi as part of Chief Executive Officer Peter Orszag’s yearslong plan to double the firm’s revenue.
* Airbus SE can achieve its aircraft delivery target for the year, though handing over 820 planes depends on receiving engines that remain difficult to source, Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury said.
* Novartis AG agreed to buy Tourmaline Bio Inc. in a deal valued at about $1.4 billion as the Swiss drugmaker continues to pursue bolt-on deals to boost its drug pipeline.
* Kering SA’s incoming chief executive officer vowed to slash debt and cut costs in a bid to revive the struggling luxury mowner of Gucci.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“While equities have held steady on rising hopes for rate cuts, such support can only go so far in obscuring the deteriorating underlying reality.
This time, rate cuts have the whiff of unease rather than relief.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.5%
* Apple fell 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1707
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3519
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.45 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $111,325.45
* Ether was little changed at $4,294.59
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.08%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.66%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.62%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.55%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.72%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $62.65 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,629.94 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If knowledge is treasure, wisdom is the treasurer.  He that hath too much knowledge without judgement is made more for another man’s use
than his own. –William Penn, 1644-1718.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday. It’s International Literacy Day.
September 8, 1868: William Hinds registers a patent for the candlestick, a seemingly modest tool that nonetheless reshapes domestic lighting essentials.
September 8, 1565: A Spanish expedition established the first permanent European settlement in the United States at present-day St. Augustine, Fla. Go to article.
September 8, 1974: Nixon pardoned.

Confucius, philosopher, b. 551 BC.

Upcoming celestial events
Many sky-gazers around the world witnessed a total lunar eclipse over the weekend. Read about the next big celestial event: October’s Harvest moon.

Highlights from the US Open tennis championships
Spanish star Carlos Alcaraz won his second US Open title, defeating Italian rival Jannik Sinner in four thrilling sets. On the women’s side, Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka secured her second consecutive US Open title over American Amanda Anisimova.

Judge locks up ‘mushroom murderer’ for life
A woman known as the “mushroom murderer” was given three life sentences for killing her lunch guests. Read about the poisoning case that has gripped much of the world’s attention.

Inside North Korea’s vast — and nearly empty — new resort
As North Korea touts a new beach destination on its east coast, Pyongyang is quietly embracing its own brand of consumer culture.

Biden to build presidential library in Delaware
Former President Joe Biden is set to start fundraising for his presidential library soon. Experts say it will be an expensive endeavor, likely costing hundreds of millions of dollars.

2,200-year-old gold coin depicting ancient Egyptian queen discovered in Jerusalem

Archaeologists in Jerusalem have discovered a 2,270-year-old gold coin with Queen Berenice II of Egypt and the inscription “of the Queen,” suggesting she was a powerful and
influential monarch. Read More.

The universe’s first magnetic fields were ‘comparable’ to the human brain — and still linger within the ‘cosmic web’

New computer simulations suggest the first magnetic fields that emerged after the Big Bang were much weaker than expected — containing the equivalent magnetic energy of a human brain. Read More.

Meet the Chinese supercar that just smashed the EV speed record

Chinese EV maker BYD has designed and tested a supercar with a top speed that rivals the best gasoline cars. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
A circus group performs during the second Africa climate summit
Photograph: Tiksa Negeri/Reuters

Hong Kong, China
Pedestrians cross a road in the rain as Typhoon Tapah approaches as the city
Photograph: China News Service/Getty Images

Nablus, West Bank
The full moon sets behind Mount Gerizim.
Photograph: Jaafar Ashtiyeh/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 8^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45514.95	+114.09
		+0.25%
S&P 500	6495.15	+13.65
		+0.21%
NASDAQ	21798.70	+98.31
		+0.45%
TSX	29027.73	-22.90
		-0.08%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	43643.81	+625.06
		+1.45%
HANG SENG	25633.91	+215.93
		+0.85%
SENSEX	80787.30	+76.54
		+0.09%
FTSE 100*	9221.44	+13.23
		+0.14%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.209	3.269
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.660	3.741
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0398	4.0742
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6922	4.7587

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7246	0.7231
US $	1.3800	1.3829

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6159	0.6236
US $	1.1766	0.8499

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3594.55	3546.30
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.26	61.87

Market Commentary:
I like nonsense; it wakes up the brain cells. –Dr. Seuss.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 29,027.73 in Toronto, ending a 8-day gain.
The loss follows theprevious session’s increase of 0.5%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 0.7%.
MDA Space Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 25.0%.
Today, 103 of 210 shares fell, while 106 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by industrials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 17%, heading for the best year since 2024
* This quarter, the index rose 8.1%
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on Sept. 5, 2025 and 30.6% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.6% in the past 5 days and rose 4.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.5 on a trailing basis and 18.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.65t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 9.83% compared with 9.83% in the previous session and the average of 9.80% over the past month

Index Points
Industrials | -38.6314| -1.1| 5/24
Information Technology | -15.0470| -0.5| 2/8
Consumer Staples | -13.9350| -1.3| 2/8
Communication Services | -7.1575| -1.1| 2/3
Financials | -7.0070| -0.1| 9/15
Utilities | -2.9569| -0.3| 6/8
Consumer Discretionary | -0.3216| 0.0| 8/1
Health Care | 0.4084| 0.6| 2/1
Real Estate | 0.7013| 0.1| 7/12
Energy | 3.2446| 0.1| 22/17
Materials | 57.8010| 1.3| 41/6
Shopify | -12.2800| -0.7| -8.2| 32.0
Couche-Tard | -10.3900| -2.5| 29.8| -6.8
MDA Space | -8.4210| -25.0| 449.1| 11.7
Wheaton Precious | Metals | 6.4150| 1.4| -6.0| 81.0
Barrick Mining | 8.4230| 1.8| 3.6| 79.8
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 8.8400| 1.2| 86.7| 89.3
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower on Monday, failing for only the second time in the last 12 sessions to close at a record high, with today’s losses coming on some profit taking, but also as Rosenberg Research in its latest ‘Strategizer’, a monthly guidebook for active investors, said the Canadian equity model had hit a fresh four-year low.
Even with commodity prices higher, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 22.90 points to 29,027.73, with sectors mixed.
Industrials was the only sector to lose more than 1%, while the Battery Metals Index was the only one to gain more than 1%.
Of commodities, gold traded at a fresh record high late afternoon on Monday as the dollar weakened and investors anticipate a cut to U.S. interest rates next week.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $22.70 to US$3,676.00 per ounce, topping Friday’s record close of US$3,653.10.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher, a day after OPEC+ announced a smaller than expected production hike for October.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed up $0.39 to settle at US$62.26 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen up $0.43 to US$65.93.
On sectors, Rosenberg Research noted Strategizer’s Canadian equity model score fell for the fourth month in a row, down to 21.9 from 24.6 while shifting further into “underweight” territory as a result, and to a four-year low.
It said investors have pushed the TSX to new record heights thanks to momentum from the Gold Miners and Banks, accounting for a combined 63% of the benchmark’s year to date gains.
Both valuations (80th percentile) and technicals (90th percentile) are now “at extremes” as a result, it added.
“Such momentum can always continue in the near-term (Materials and Financials remain two of its model’s top sector picks), but long-term investors sitting on large gains may wish to consider taking some profits, rebalancing towards allocation targets as needed.”
At the sector level, Rosenberg Research said its Canadian equity model keeps Financials (#1) and Materials (#3) in the top rankings from last month, as well as Real Estate at #4.
The only change was the rise of Health Care to #2, replacing Energy, now #5, to round out the top sector picks.
Meanwhile, Strategizer’s commodity model ticked higher to 57.2 in August from 56.0 in July, remaining in the upper-half of “neutral” where it has been for the better part of the past year.
“As such,” the research said, “there is little in the way of new developments.
The outlook is caught between depressed fundamentals, as reflected in a loose supply-demand backdrop, that is mirrored (properly) by historically cheap valuations (especially compared to financial assets like stocks) and a lack of ownership in investor portfolios. Thus, there remains a risk of a “positive” surprise relative to expectations.”
In terms of individual commodities at the top of Strategizer’s rankings, aluminum (#1), RBOB gasoline (#2), wheat (#3), sugar (#4), and cotton (#5) round out the list.
WTI crude fell to the middle (#7 from #4), “reflective of a deteriorating backdrop with risks of oversupply in the second half of the year on the rise”.
Rosenberg Research said its gold model experienced a decline to 19.4 from 26.8, led by a jump in investor sentiment (contrarian negative) with prices breaking out to new record highs as August drew to a close.
“While long-term bullish on the yellow metal, our model is flagging the increasing need to actively manage position sizes, emphasizing risk-management for any pullbacks along the way (positioning is getting crowded on the long side).
Fair to say, however, that any meaningful dips that materialize shouldbe bought,” it added.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders betting the Federal Reserve will cut rates drove stocks close to all-time highs amid hopes that policy easing at a time when the economy is bending, but not breaking will power Corporate America.
Following a slide in the aftermath of weak jobs figures, the S&P 500 bounced back.
While upcoming data is projected to show that progress on reducing inflation has stalled, traders braced for almost three Fed cuts this year starting in September.
Treasuries kept rising, with the two-year yield remaining at the lowest level since 2022.
The dollar retreated.
“After last week’s tepid jobs numbers, it will likely take a major upside surprise from this week’s inflation data to derail a Fed rate cut next week,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
Fed officials have signaled concerns are shifting from the inflation risks posed by tariffs to weakness in the job market.
Steady inflation expectations are an indication that tariffs could prove a one-time price shock.
That’s even if they take several months to work their way through the economy.
Ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, Thursday’s core consumer price index is projected to show a 0.3% increase in August for a second month.
Before that, figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday will likely unveil another US jobs markdown that will set the stage for a rate cut.
“While the Sept. 5 report showed job growth had slowed, it doesn’t appear to be signaling a recession,” according to Invesco Global Market Strategy Office.
“Slower growth, anchored inflation expectations, falling yields, and anticipated rate cuts point to an optimistic outlook for stocks.”
US INSIGHT: What 550k Fewer Jobs Means – Worst Is Probably Over
“Near-term payroll data may look soft, but with the Fed set to begin cutting rates — and markets historically performing best in rate-cutting cycles, typically with a 20% run rate — the broader backdrop tilts positive,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
This month could defy the usual seasonal weakness in equities.
While the S&P 500 has fallen 1% on average during Septembers going back to 1971, it has gained 1.2% in the month when the Fed was reducing rates and the economy was not contracting, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Historically, in the two years following the start of a non-recessionary rate-cutting cycle, the median S&P 500 has climbed as much as 50%, said Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank AG.
By contrast, returns are more muted when cuts coincide with recessions.
“That helps explain why equities are generally welcoming the prospect of Fed easing after a nine-month pause,” he said.
“Recession probabilities are still relatively low, but the latest labor-market data injects a dose of caution given payroll growth has slowed to a crawl.”
The hope, Reid notes, is that these rate cuts will help pre-empt any downturn, keeping us on the soft-landing path.
Equity Insight
To Megan Horneman at Verdence Capital Advisors, this week’s inflation data probably won’t be enough to change the likelihood of a Fed reduction in September.
The biggest question for investors now is how many more rate cuts we will receive.
“After this week’s inflation data, we will get a better picture on what the Fed can do with rates,” Horneman said.
“However, we are not out of the woods with inflation, and the Fed may deliver a ‘hawkish cut’ while reminding investors of their dual mandate, especially if inflation continues to move further away from their target.”
Options traders are betting the S&P 500 will post a modest swing on Thursday following the CPI report, with a projected move of nearly 0.7% in either direction, according to data compiled by Piper Sandler.
That’s well below an average realized move of 1% over the past year.
Secondary indicators of inflation have shown some upward pressure, so the market is clearly more concerned with these indicators coming in hot.
How hot is the question? according to Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
“While a September cut next week is likely a done deal, the pace of cuts moving forward from there will hinge in large part on how ‘bad’ the inflation data is,” they said.
“Come Thursday morning, the market will either be only thinking about stagflation or three cuts between now and year-end.”
“Aggressive rate cuts are coming,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V Research.
“That might change if labor-market data firms over the coming quarters.
A series of rate cuts to end 2025 and persistently easy financial conditions should be expected.
The bar to change to rate cut expectations through year-end 2025 seems high.”
Assuming economic activity holds up, easy financial conditions are a support for markets, he said, adding that his S&P 500 fair value framework points to 7,000.
The index closed Monday at 6,495.15.
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson expects further gains in US equities even if moves turn choppier in the near term.
He reiterated that the economy is transitioning to a so-called “early cycle” stage, which would support a “durable and broad” earnings recovery.
At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., strategists led by David Kostin said the rally in US stocks is set to extend as laggards including small caps play catch-up amid a resilient economic outlook.
A weaker-than-expected jobs report last week stirred worries among investors that the central bank has waited too long to reduce borrowing costs. RBC Capital Markets strategist
Lori Calvasina said the soft data was raising uncertainty in a stock market that’s “priced for perfection.”
To Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management, there’s little to prevent the Fed from cutting rates at this month’s meeting.
And that would likely kick-start a run of 100 basis points in reductions over the next four meetings, from September to January, he said.
“Against this backdrop, we continue to recommend high- quality fixed income, where investors can lock in yields above those available on cash and benefit from potential capital gains if policy becomes more accommodative,” he said.
To JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Andrew Tyler, the bull market feels “unstoppable,” but if the Fed follows through on a widely expected rate cut at its Sept. 17 meeting, that “could turn into a ‘Sell the News’ event.
The US yield curve has further to steepen should the Fed unleash aggressive rate cuts, DoubleLine Capital’s Bill Campbell said.
He expects easier monetary policy to encourage risk-taking in credit markets, at least in the short term, while doing little to shore up rising long-term yields.
“It potentially extends this runway for risk assets, credit assets to continue to trade at very rich valuations,” Campbell said.
“The clearest expression of these issues are likely a lower dollar and a steepening curve.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Dell Technologies Inc. said Chief Financial Officer Yvonne McGill is stepping down and will be replaced on an interim basis by David Kennedy, a senior vice president with the firm.
* SpaceX, the Elon Musk-backed company that owns the Starlink satellite internet network, agreed to acquire wireless spectrum from EchoStar Corp. for about $17 billion, allowing Charlie Ergen’s beleaguered telecommunications company to resolve an overhanging regulatory probe and pay down debt.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google was sued by advertising exchange PubMatic Inc., which is seeking billions of dollars over its claim that the search giant has illegally monopolized the ad technology market.
* Amazon.com Inc. has taken a stake in the Colombian delivery company Rappi Inc., a strategic partnership that pairs the e- commerce giant’s retail and technology infrastructure with one of Latin America’s best-known last-mile delivery outfits.
* Investors expecting Apple Inc.’s biggest product event of the year to serve as the next catalyst for its recently revived stock might come away disappointed.
** Barring a surprise at Tuesday’s unveiling, Apple shares are seen to have little room for further gains after adding more than $450 billion in market value since the end of July
* Nasdaq Inc. is asking regulators to let investors trade tokenized versions of stocks on its exchange, a move that could mark the first big test of blockchain technology inside the core of America’s equity markets.
* Hasbro Inc., the company behind the Monopoly board game, is moving its headquarters to Boston from Pawtucket, Rhode Island, boosting the city’s struggling business district and Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey’s effort to lure investments.
* PNC Financial Services Group Inc. will fulfill its goals for expanding across Colorado with the planned takeover of FirstBank Holding Co., and the regional-banking giant will focus its branch-opening effort on other states instead, PNC Chief Executive Officer Bill Demchak said.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. has been added to the S&P 500, marking a new phase for the retail trading platform that helped define the pandemic-era boom in individual investing. The company will join the benchmark in the latest quarterly rebalance, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Friday.
** AppLovin Corp. and Emcor Group Inc. will also be added to the index. The three companies will replace MarketAxess Holdings Inc., Caesars Entertainment Inc. and Enphase Energy Inc. prior to the start of trading on Sept. 22.
* CVS Health Corp. shares dipped after executives during a private investor meeting provided no details about its upcoming quality ratings from the US government and offered no financial guidance.
* BYD Co. is reinforcing its European expansion with new models and showrooms amid a bruising price war at home in China.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1762
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3550
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.42 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $112,107.76
* Ether fell 0.2% to $4,292.26
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.04%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.64%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.61%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.49%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.69%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $62.37 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.4% to $3,636.94 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Have the courage to follow your heart and intuition.  They somehow already know what you truly want.  Everything else is secondary. –Steve Jobs, 1955-2011.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
September 5, 1885: the world’s first gasoline pump is patented by Sylvanus Bowser in Fort Wayne Indiana.
September 5, 1957: “On the Road” by Jack Kerouac, the defining novel of the Beat Generation, was published. Go to article.
September 5. 2002: Reopening ceremony for the World Financial Center Winter Garden, after extensive repairs following the September 11 terrorist attack.

Map of 600,000 brain cells rewrites the textbook on how the brain makes decisions

A new study shows that the brain activity behind decision-making is far more widespread across the organ than first thought. Read More.

Skull of bear held captive to fight Roman gladiators discovered near ancient amphitheater in Serbia

Archaeologists determined that the bear had an infected injury and had been held captive for a significant amount of time. Read More.

Chinese submersible explores previously unknown giant craters at the bottom of the Pacific — and they’re teeming with life

Scientists have discovered and explored a giant hydrothermal system at the bottom of the Pacific, which could provide a window into the origins of life on Earth. Read More.

James Webb telescope spots odd disk around star that could shatter planet formation theories

Astronomers using the James Webb Space Telescope have discovered a planet-forming disk that almost entirely lacks water, challenging prevailing theories. Read More.

Parental controls coming to ChatGPT 
The move follows allegations that it and other chatbots have contributed to self-harm or suicide among teens.

Stolen 17th-century painting recovered
The work by Italian artist Giuseppe Ghislandi was allegedly stolen by Nazis during World War II.

Civil rights activist Joseph McNeil dies at 83
McNeil was one of four North Carolina college students whose occupation of a racially segregated Woolworth’s lunch counter in 1960 helped spark nonviolent sit-in protests across the South.

Farm Aid festival moves to Minneapolis
And the headliners for the 40th annual music and food event have been announced. CNN will broadcast Farm Aid 40 on September 20 from Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Cologne, Germany
People attend Gamescom, the world’s largest annual video-game trade fair
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Come on in, the water’s lovely … a woman considers a swim with a sea lion in the La Jolla neighbourhood of San Diego, California, US
Photograph: Mike Blake/Reuters

​​​​​​​Pigs looking for food descend upon the coves in the Dilek Peninsula Büyük Menderes Delta national park, Turkey
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
 Market Closes for September 5^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45400.86	-220.43
		-0.48%
S&P 500	6481.50	-20.58
		-0.32%
NASDAQ	21700.39	-7.30
		-0.03%
TSX	29050.63	+134.74
		+0.47%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	43018.75	+438.48
		+1.03%
HANG SENG	25417.98	+359.47
		+1.43%
SENSEX	80710.76	-7.25
		-0.01%
FTSE 100*	9208.21	-8.66
		-0.09%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.269	3.348
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.741	3.809
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0742	4.1607
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7587	4.8533

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7231	0.7236
US $	1.3829	1.3819

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6169	0.6210
US $	1.1720	0.8532

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3546.30	3556.20
Oil
WTI Crude Future	61.87	63.48

Market Commentary:
Big wheels keep on turning. -John Fogerty, b.1945.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the eighth day, climbing 0.5%, or 134.74 to 29,050.63 in Toronto.
Celestica Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 9.9%.
Today, 135 of 210 shares rose, while 73 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 17%, heading for the best year since 2024
* This quarter, the index rose 8.2%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.7%
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 30.7% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.5 on a trailing basis and 18.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.63t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.83% compared with 9.85% in the previous session and the average of 9.79% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 110.3727| 2.6| 41/6
Information Technology | 50.0344| 1.7| 8/2
Consumer Staples | 12.5529| 1.2| 7/3
Communication Services | 6.3341| 1.0| 4/1
Consumer Discretionary | 5.2241| 0.6| 8/1
Real Estate | 4.4380| 0.9| 17/1
Health Care | 1.2863| 1.8| 3/0
Utilities | -0.3171| 0.0| 8/5
Industrials | -10.7077| -0.3| 16/13
Financials | -18.6504| -0.2| 11/13
Energy | -25.8145| -0.6| 12/28
Celestica | 24.4100| 9.9| 53.3| 153.5
Shopify | 21.8200| 1.3| 12.4| 32.9
Barrick Mining | 20.5800| 4.5| 12.0| 76.6
CIBC | -6.5790| -0.9| 24.9| 19.2
RBC | -14.8500| -0.7| -12.8| 15.5
Canadian Natural Resources | -19.5000| -3.1| 73.4| -5.2
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Friday posted its tenth record close in 11 sessions, today moving on weaker than expected August jobs data that now makes it likely that interest rates will be cut at least once before the end of the year, starting this month, even as National Bank seeks “more clarity” on trade relations with the United States ahead of an expected federal government budget update in October.
Despite mixed commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index was up 134.74 points, or 0.5%, at 29,050.63.
To put recent gains in perspective, the first record close for the index over this 11-day period, on August 21, was 28,055,43.
The first record close last month was 27,570.88 on August 5.
Sectors were mixed, with Energy and the Battery Metals Index both down about 1.7%, while Info Tech was up 2.4%, Health Care up 1.8% and Base Metals up 1.6%.
Within Info Tech, Celestica (CLS.TO) shares rose 10% as BNN Bloomberg cited news of a contract with Bank of Montreal.
There was an Indeed, com report that said BMO Capital Markets had predicted the electronic component manufacturer will be “the key supplier for OpenAI’s custom XPU-based servers/racks.”
Of commodities, gold traded higher late afternoon on Friday, rising as the dollar and yields moved sharply lower after U.S. hiring stalled in July, firming expectations the Federal Reserve will move to lower interest rates beginning this month.
Gold for December delivery was up $34.90 to US$3,641.60 per ounce.
But the West Texas Intermediate oil price fell for a third straight session, dropping to a three-month low on signs of slowing demand and weak US economic data, while reports suggest OPEC+ may raise production to defend market share.
WTI oil for October delivery closed down $1.61 to settle at $61.87 per barrel, the lowest since May 30, while November Brent oil was last seen down $1.48 to $65.51.
On the economics front, Rosenberg Research noted Canadian employment plunged by 65,500 in August, sharply below the already weak consensus call for a +5.0k reading.
This follows the 40.8k drop in July and brings the six-month cumulative change in employment to minus 40k, the steepest downturn since August 2020.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.1% from 6.9% in July, even with the participation rate dipping to 65.1% from 65.2% in July.
If not for that, the jobless rate would have risen to 7.2%.
The research also noted wages showed “mixed signals”, the average wage rate increased by 3.2% year over year, but it said this should really be of little concern to the Bank of Canada (BoC) because the widening labor market slack will ensure that cost pressures will remain contained.
Of concern to Rosenberg Research, Governor Tiff Macklem and the BoC have hesitated to move on rates this year, citing tariff uncertainty.
“Yet,” it said, “uncertainty itself has become a significant headwind for growth without meaningfully affecting inflation expectations and is showing through in a sharp reduction in hiring activity.”
According to Rosenberg, today’s employment report should dispel any lingering doubts as to what the BoC should be doing at the coming policy meeting on September 17.
Indeed, it noted, in the immediate aftermath of the data, rate-cutting odds have climbed to 74% from 65% pre-release.
Ten-year yields fell to 3.27%, down more than 7 basis points, while the Loonie was little changed.
“But the fact that export-sensitive manufacturing (-19k) and transportation (-23k) were some of the weakest links from a sector perspective tells you that the Canadian dollar should be trading down on this piece of data.”
Rosenberg noted three items: over the past year, the level of unemployment has risen nearly 8.0%, but the comparable pace of job creation is but a fraction of that at 1.0%; just 65% of the folks who entered the labor market over the past 12 months have managed to land a job; and the unemployment rate has now risen 230 basis points above the cycle-low of 4.8% posted back in July 2022.
“Never before in the annals of recorded Canadian economic history has the economy managed to escape an official recession with such a dramatic move off the cycle low,” the research said, before adding: “Tiff, you know what to do.”
Elsewhere, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, said a combination of factors, including falling inflation, growth risks in the United States, tariffs, and uncertainty around the Canadian federal government’s budget in October, probably merits additional easing by the BoC, but he added it is not without risks to how the BoC may look at things.
“One cut wouldn’t be worth Macklem getting out of bed to deliver as the effects would be scant and markets would pressure him to keep going. 50bps back to back and then we’ll see,” Holt added.
“All of which would be a pivot away from inflation risk, for now”, Holt said, before adding: “The interest sensitives are showing responsiveness to prior easing; witness Q2 consumption growth and final domestic demand plus some housing momentum.
Trend core inflation remains too warm in m/m SAAR terms, but we’ll see the next batch of readings the week after next.
Arguments for persistent cost pressures remain sound, such as supply chain turmoil, higher inventory holdings as a buffer, labour market wage and productivity pressures.
Easing as an insurance play now could well motivate regrets later, and with that some take back.”
Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets’ chief economist Douglas Porter in his weekly ‘Talking Points’ note said BMO Economics is now looking for the BoC to cut rates in September, and it is sticking to it dovish lean that it will ultimately slice by 75 bps, taking the rate to 2.0% by early next year.
“While we and the market have been debating the timing and depth of potential cuts, an exceptionally weak Canadian jobs report barged into the discussion and left few doubts,” he added, noting that while many were pointing to the somewhat hawkish language in the July meeting and minutes, that event pre-dated the loss of more than 100,000 jobs and the removal of most of Canada’s reciprocal tariffs.
Macquarie Bank has pulled forward the timing for its first expected BoC rate cut to September and its second cut to October, previously December.
While this is its base case, uncertainty remains on the timing with the August CPI reading (due on Sept 16) being an important consideration for the BoC.
Beyond jobs and rates, National Bank still has its focus on trade uncertainty.
From the get-go of this year’s trade war, said National Bank’s Ethan Currie, it was clear that for Canada, USMCA was the “name of the tariff game”.
Currie noted carve outs awarded to traded goods registered under the agreement have proven to be the largest source of Canada’s “relatively favourable” tariff outlook.
Without such shelter, Currie said, the effective duty rate on U.S.-bound Canadian exports would reflect more egregious ‘headline’ figures imposed via the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act).  For example, the 35% levy justified by border security concerns.
Instead, he added Canada is currently exposed to an average tariff rate of about 5% by National’s estimates, “a figure that is predominantly propped up by sector-specific levies (which has key regional implications that shouldn’t be neglected).”
Globally, Currie noted, the USMCA advantage is clear, with recently released U.S. customs data for July suggesting the effective tariff rate paid on imports from Canada was 3.0% (Mexico 4.7%), both well below the all-partner, trade-weighted average of near 10%.
Currie cited a chart showing USMCA compliance in Canada-U.S. trade reached a record high in July.
At 84%, this registration rate also saw the largest monthly (and yearly) jump on record, even after an initial surge in March.
Currie said: “Now consistent with the relatively muted tariff rate implied by customs data, a near-potential compliance rate continues to flag the importance of trade negotiations.
To us, it is imperative that more clarity on the USMCA renewal be soon provided to maximize the efficiency of fiscal deployment (to be previewed in the fall budget).”
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Strong evidence the US labor market is slowing rippled through Wall Street, driving stocks lower and bonds higher on concern the Federal Reserve will now have to rush to prevent further weakness.
The sharp cooling triggered fears about a more pronounced jobs slowdown, sparking a flight to Treasuries, with two-year yields hovering near the lowest since 2022.
The data also prompted a fast repricing in money markets, which now project almost three Fed cuts this year.
Those prospects were not enough to sustain gains in the S&P 500.
After hitting record highs, the gauge lost steam amid worries the Fed is behind the curve on preventing jobs weakening at a time when inflation continues to show signs of stickiness.
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, investors should tread carefully.
There’s a clear difference between a temporary cooling in the jobs market and a deeper downturn.
“Hoping for the former while ignoring the risks of the latter – just to usher in lower rates – is a slippery slope,” Kenwell said.
“Stocks have held up well amid high rates and a resilient economy, but that resilience could quickly fade if the labor market shows real cracks.”
Job growth has moderated materially in recent months and openings have declined, weighing on broader economic activity.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 22,000 in August, and revisions showed employment shrank in June for the first time since 2020.
The jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%.
“Today’s news probably raises more questions about the growth outlook than about the Fed outlook,” said Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co., adding the data should remove the “last major hurdle” for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this month.
“We also think today’s numbers buttress the case for sequential, rather than staggered, rate cuts after September,” Feroli added.
“Bad news for employment is good news for investors wanting lower rates,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“A September cut is a near certainty and October is increasingly in play.
The punch bowl could be ready to go as job growth grinds to a halt.”
While today’s report is not yet inviting renewed concerns around recession, worries about the health of the economy are starting to creep in, said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“A further deterioration in the health of the labor market would soon tip the balance to ‘bad news is simply bad news’,” she noted.
“Equally a strong inflation print next week could strike new fears about a ‘stagflationary mix.’
The market is treading a very, very narrow path to continued gains.”
As the Fed prepares for its upcoming meeting, policymakers will likely focus on the weakness in the job market to defend their decision to cut rates, according to Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
Economists at Bank of America Corp. now forecast two Fed cuts this year — in September and December — scrapping what had become an outlier call for no action until next year.
At Barclays Plc, economists said they now see three rate cuts in 2025 — one at each of the Fed’s remaining meetings — compared to the two reductions they previously expected.
To Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co., today’s data, along with other economic indicators, give the Fed room to begin cutting rates starting this month.
“We are not forecasting a recession and still expect a relatively gradual return to neutral as inflation normalizes,” she noted.
“That said, the accumulating evidence of labor-market weakness warrants a somewhat faster pace of easing than we had previously projected.”
Even prior to the latest jobs report, a substantial slowdown in payroll growth over the summer had prompted comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers that the balance of risks was shifting away from inflation and toward unemployment.
“Concerns about a weakening employment picture will dominate any lingering apprehensions around a de-anchoring of inflation expectations,” said Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities, who expect three straight rate cuts starting this month.
“We remain buyers of rates on dips even as the move could prove a grind as markets are already penciling in a terminal rate below 3%,” they said.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the jobs data locks a 25 basis-point cut this month and will influence the way the Fed frames out the playbook post-September.
“The market has moved quickly to price an October cut as overwhelmingly likely following the report,” he said.
“We do not think October is close to a lock, and believe it will be genuinely data-dependent.”
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its preliminary benchmark revision, an adjustment that could shave hundreds of thousands from reported payrolls in the year through March.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently estimated that monthly job creation will be reduced by an average of about 60,000 a month.
‘I’m Still Undecided’
Meantime, Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he’s still undecided on what course of action he will support at September meeting, pointing to inflation data due next week.
“I want to get more information. I’m still undecided as we’re going into this,” Goolsbee told Bloomberg Television.
“We’ve got to look at the inflation side too.”
Investors could prove somewhat cautious ahead of Thursday’s consumer price index, which could pour some cold water on expectations of rapid cuts if services inflation remains firmer than expected, according to TD Securities strategists.
Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets says he’s worried about the risk of a repeat of July’s composition – soft goods inflation with sticky services pressure.
“If there is a broadening out of service sector reflation, one would be remiss not to assume it would have a limited impact on the extent to which the Committee will be willing to signal future rate cuts,” he noted.
At Glenmede, Jason Pride notes that while Friday’s jobs report is the “cherry on top of the argument for a rate cut” in September, beyond that, the odds of a one-and-done cut are falling.
“If the data continue to follow recent trends, the Fed may be heading toward a path that sees them cut rates at each of its meetings through year-end,” he said.
Weaker jobs data will increase the odds of a Fed cut, but could create shorter-term volatility, as a cooling labor market is not a sign of strength, said Larry Tentarelli at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report.
Investor Dilemma
There is clearly a dilemma in investors’ minds right now, which is why stocks initially rallied and then dropped, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
A weakening jobs market indicates the economy is cooling, which could ultimately be “bad news” for company profits, he said.
But this is countered by argument that lower rates should soften the blow and provide a positive backdrop for stocks.
“All told, today’s weaker jobs report should not significantly reduce the appetite for risk taking,” Razaqzada noted.
“Ultimately, the trend is bullish for markets and dip- buyers will use any excuse to buy any dips they can get their hands on.”
In fact, equities closed off session lows on Friday, and most shares in the S&P 500 actually gained.
Mark Hackett at Nationwide anticipates near-term volatility amid softer payroll data, seasonal factors, lofty expectations, and signs of fatigue within large-cap technology.
“That said, we see several important tailwinds building momentum,” Hackett notes.
“These include fiscal support from the recent budget deal, a near-term ‘sugar rush’ from trade-related purchase agreements, a weaker dollar, improving earnings expectations, and a more dovish Federal Reserve.”
Over the next six to 12 months, Hackett says these supports should cascade through the market and could be amplified by retail investors who remain confident in buying dips.
“While valuations are often cited as a concern, history shows they are a poor market-timing tool,” Hackett said.
“Outside of high-profile technology names, valuations are broadly reasonable — particularly if earnings continue to trend higher.”

Corporate Highlights:
* President Donald Trump said he would be imposing tariffs on semiconductor imports “very shortly,” but spare goods from companies that have pledged to boost their US investments.
* Nvidia Corp. shares fell on Friday, with the chipmaker at risk of losing its historic $4 trillion valuation on news. Broadcom Inc. is helping OpenAI design and produce an artificial intelligence accelerator from 2026.
* President Trump threatened a probe that could prompt fresh tariffs in response to the European Union fining Alphabet Inc.’s Google over findings the company abused its dominance by giving its own ad exchanges a competitive advantage.
* Tesla Inc. proposed a new compensation agreement for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk potentially worth around $1 trillion, a massive package without precedent in corporate America.
* Apple Inc.’s annual sales in India hit a record of nearly $9 billion in the last fiscal year, signaling growing consumer demand for its flagship devices as the company ramps up its retail footprint in the world’s most populous country.
** Apple’s biggest product launch event of the year takes place on Tuesday, Sept. 9, when the company will introduce its next- generation iPhone lineup, new smartwatches and other peripherals.
* Lululemon Athletica Inc. slashed its outlook, disappointing investors for a third straight quarter as it struggles to meet high expectations and balance tariff expenses in a difficult consumer environment.
* Shares of Eli Lilly & Co. and Novo Nordisk A/S fell after US regulators established a “green list” of foreign manufacturers who produce raw materials that compounding pharmacies use to make copies of their blockbuster GLP-1 drugs.
* Roblox Corp. is testing a short-form video app similar to TikTok that will allow users to capture and share 30-second clips of their video-game play.
* BMW AG unveiled the first of a new range of electric vehicles meant to help the German carmaker push back against Chinese rivals and take back the lead in automotive engineering.
* BBVA SA is finally submitting its takeover bid for Banco Sabadell SA to the target’s shareholders, ushering in the final leg of a deal that could create a huge new Spanish bank.
* Orsted A/S shareholders voted to support a crucial 60 billion Danish kroner ($9.4 billion) rights offering, just after the company issued a fresh profit warning on Friday.
* Nvidia Corp.’s major server production partner Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. reported solid monthly sales growth, signaling demand for AI infrastructure remains intact in the US.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.6% to $1.1718
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3504
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 147.45 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $111,570.39
* Ether rose 0.6% to $4,330.83
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.09%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.66%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.65%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 3.52%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.77%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to $62.05 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.4% to $3,593.89 an ounce

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If it were not for hopes, the heart would break. –Thomas Fuller, 1608-1661.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

September 4, 1781: City of Los Angeles founded.
September 4, 1882: Thomas Edison begins commercial operations at his Pearl St. plant.
September 4, 1888: George Eastman is granted a patent for roll film and the Kodak camera, revolutionizing photography by making it affordable and portable.   
He registered his enterprise Kodak.  Go to article.
September 4, 2012: shares of Facebook (now Meta Platforms) hit a record-low close of $17.73, valuing the fledgling social-media company at less than $38 billion. It’s worth $1.9 trillion today.

Who will see the ‘blood moon’ total lunar eclipse this weekend?

The full moon on Sept. 7, 2025 will be a “blood moon” total lunar eclipse. Here’s who will see the longest total lunar eclipse since 2022. Read More.

Iconic winged lion statue in Venice may actually be from China’s Tang dynasty, study finds

A new study of the trace amounts of lead in Venice’s famous winged lion statue suggests that its metal originated in China — and Marco Polo’s family may have brought it over. Read More.

James Webb telescope discovers ‘exceptionally rare’ 5-galaxy crash in the early universe

Near-infrared images from the James Webb Space Telescope revealed five early universe galaxies merging within a large halo. Read More.

‘We completely freaked out’: Orcas are attacking boats in Europe again

Iberian orcas have damaged several boats off the coast of Spain in recent weeks, leaving authorities scrambling to rescue stranded crews. Read More.

Scientists taught an AI-powered ‘robot dog’ how to play badminton against humans — and it’s actually really good

Scientists have trained the ANYmal quadruped robot to play badminton, and it’s good enough to complete in a 10-shot rally with a human opponent. Read More.

Cyclist Chris Froome suffers life-threatening injury in crash
The four-time Tour de France winner is on the mend, but his wife said “it’s going to be a long recovery process.”

Sen. Cory Booker is engaged
The Democrat from New Jersey popped the question to his girlfriend while vacationing in Hawaii.
New ‘Dancing with the Stars’ contestants announced
Comedian Andy Richter, former child star Corey Feldman and actress Danielle Fishel will join other celebs in the battle of the ballroom.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dharamshala, India
Clouds envelop the Himalayan township of McLeodganj
Photograph: Ashwini Bhatia/AP

Hong Kong, China
Preparations for the city’s inaugural international hot-air balloon festival
Photograph: Peter Parks/AFP/Getty Images

Chennai, India
Students perform a traditional dance during Onam, the annual harvest festival
Photograph: R Satish Babu/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 4^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45621.29	+350.06
		+0.77%
S&P 500	6502.08	+53.82
		+0.83%
NASDAQ	21707.69	+209.96
		+0.98%
TSX	28915.89	+164.52
		+0.57%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	42580.27	+641.38
		+1.53%
HANG SENG	25058.51	-284.92
		-1.12%
SENSEX	80718.01	+150.30
		+0.19%
FTSE 100*	9216.87	+38.88
		+0.42%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.348	3.386
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.809	3.843
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1607	4.2168
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8533	4.8968

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7236	0.7249
US $	1.3819	1.3795

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6105	0.6209
US $	1.1653	0.8581

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3556.20	3490.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.48	63.97

Market Commentary:
The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining. -John Fitzgerald Kennedy, 1917-1963.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the seventh day, climbing 0.6%, or 164.52 to 28,915.89 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since Aug. 26. Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.8%.
Bird Construction Inc. had the largest increase, rising 13.2%.
Today, 141 of 210 shares rose, while 69 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 17%, heading for the best year since 2024
* This quarter, the index rose 7.7%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.2%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 30.1% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and rose 7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 on a trailing basis and 18 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.61t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.85% compared with 9.78% in the previous session and the average of 9.79% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 79.3668| 2.7| 8/2
Financials | 67.4776| 0.7| 17/7
Industrials | 19.4496| 0.6| 22/7
Consumer Discretionary | 8.6187| 0.9| 8/1
Real Estate | 5.4373| 1.1| 16/3
Utilities | 3.3984| 0.3| 11/3
Communication Services | 0.9831| 0.2| 2/3
Consumer Staples | 0.7242| 0.1| 6/4
Health Care | 0.2273| 0.3| 2/1
Energy | -6.9239| -0.2| 28/12
Materials | -14.2138| -0.3| 21/26
Shopify | 62.1500| 3.8| -19.9| 31.2
Brookfield Corp | 19.0700| 2.1| -22.5| 11.4
Bank of Montreal | 13.3800| 1.6| -10.8| 24.1
First Quantum | |Minerals | -3.6410| -3.1| 8.9| 31.1
Teck Resources | -4.0770| -2.8| 162.6| -22.3
TC Energy | -5.8930| -1.1| 42.3| 6.1
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday posted its ninth record close in the last 10 sessions, boosted by commentary on the Canadian economy from the likes of CIBC, which said that “overall, it looks like net trade will be a positive for GDP in the third quarter”, though it did add growth will be “fairly tepid” over the second half of 2025 due to tariffs uncertainty.
Even with commodity prices lower, the resources heavy TSX was up 164.53 points or 0.55% at 28,915.89, with most sectors higher.
Among sectors, the Battery Metals Index was up 3.1% and Info Tech up 2.1%.
Base Metals were down 1%, and Health Care modestly lower.
Of commodities, the front month Comex gold for September delivery settled down US$27.40 per troy ounce, or 0.76%, at US$3,565.80.
Also, Bloomberg noted, oil declined on concerns that OPEC+ will once again bolster supply at a meeting on Sunday, compounding fears of higher volumes later in the year.
It noted West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.8% to settle near US$64.50 a barrel, building on an earlier decline after softer than expected US jobs data added to concerns demand may wane.
Prices slumped Wednesday following a report that OPEC and its allies would consider fresh increases at a weekend policy meeting.
On the economy, Statistics Canada early Thursday said this nation’s merchandise trade deficit with the world had narrowed, and trade surplus with the United States widened in July.
Statistics Canada noted the global deficit narrowed to $4.9 billion in July from $6.0 billion in June as merchandise exports rose 0.9%, while imports were down 0.7% month over month.
July’s trade deficit was slightly lower than the $5.2 billion consensus deficit provided by MUFG.
Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. widened to $6.7 billion in July, from $3.7 billion in June, marking the largest surplus since March 2025, added StatsCan.
Exports to the U.S. increased 5.0% month over month in July, in part because of higher exports of crude oil and passenger cars.
Imports from the U.S. fell 2.2% in July 2025, a fourth decrease in five months.
“Overall,” CIBC said, “it looks like net trade will be a positive for GDP in the third quarter, but that doesn’t mean that the negatives from this year’s tariff shock are behind us.
Exports in the second quarter were likely below the underlying trend, due to earlier tariff front-running, and so the recent improvement is simply returning us to a new, lower, trend level.
While CUSMA exemptions are helping stabilize exports in many areas, sectors exposed to specific tariffs (notably steel and aluminum) continue to suffer.
Moreover, the negative impact of trade uncertainty on business investment, hiring and, by extension, consumer spending, will persist for longer and likely keep overall GDP growth fairly tepid during the second half of the year.”
Elsewhere, TD Economics said the combination of rising exports and falling imports on the month should allow net trade to bounce back after an “exceptionally weak” showing in the second quarter, providing a positive tailwind to total GDP growth.
It noted there is still “considerable uncertainty” on the trade front for the quarter ahead.
but added: “On the plus side, the Canadian government recently removed counter-tariffs on U.S. imports, which should aid in more positive discussions with the U.S. administration around the state of trade. On the other hand, Canadian export rotation into non-U.S. markets may not be having the same staying-power as exports abruptly shifted back to the U.S. in July.
Looking ahead, we still expect Section 232 and IEEPA tariffs on Canadian exports to remain in place over the coming quarters with the USMCA renegotiations looming next year.”
Meanwhile, Canadian officials said they would begin over the next few days to roll out financial support packages for domestic producers hit hardest by the Trump administration’s sectoral tariffs, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal.
Among the areas to receive help are steel and aluminum, which face a 50% U.S. tariff, and Canadian-assembled automobiles, which face a 25% tariff, the report said.
“We’re really working on supporting these sectors and there’s more news to come,” Industry Minister Melanie Joly said, adding that measures would emerge in the coming days.
Finance Minister Francois Philippe Champagne was widely reported Thursday as saying that “adjustments” are coming to the public service in Canada as the federal government looks to trim its spending in the fall budget.
Price: 28915.89, Change: +164.53, Percent Change: +0.55
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders gearing up for Friday’s jobs report got a trio of data that reinforced the view of a cooling labor market, keeping bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts alive while driving stocks and bonds higher.
The latest readings on hiring and unemployment claims came on the eve of data that’s expected to extend the weakest stretch of US job growth since the pandemic.
Treasury two-year yields hovered near the lowest levels in about a year.
Money markets almost fully priced in a Fed cut this month and see at least two by year-end.
The S&P 500 hit a record high.
In late hours, Broadcom Inc.’s upbeat forecast failed to impress some investors.
Employers in the US showed little enthusiasm to take on workers during August, and the unemployment rate probably ticked up to an almost four-year high — adding to evidence of a more subdued labor market.
After lowering rates by a full percentage point last fall, Fed policymakers have held them steady this year out of concern that tariffs could reignite price pressures.
But as risks to the jobs market become more apparent, officials are widely expected to slash borrowing costs in about two weeks from now.
Bearing in mind the Fed’s dual mandate, there’s reason to believe Friday’s jobs report is the “single most important” set of data that we’ll receive, according to Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
“Many investors are clearly hoping for rate cuts, but it is important to remember to be careful what we wish for,” he said.
“Data that show a gently decelerating, but not dire labor market would suit that goal.
Plunging data might bias the Fed to further cuts but could also raise concerns that the central bank is too far behind the curve.”
The former extends the “Goldilocks” narrative, Sosnick said, while the latter raises concerns about “stagnation” or “stagflation.”
As traders positioned for the key jobs reading, President Donald Trump’s pick to fill a vacant seat on the Fed’s Board of Governors reiterated his commitment to central bank independence.
Stephen Miran also added that a central bank’s most-important job is preventing depressions and hyperinflation.
In the run-up to the payrolls report, data showed US jobless claims rose to the highest since June.
Private-sector payrolls increased by 54,000, according to ADP Research data, missing estimates.
Hiring plans fell to the weakest level for any August on record, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
“Even the most easing-skeptical officials should concede increasing risks of labor market weakness,” said Will Compernolle at FHN Financial.
“If this momentum continues into upcoming months, firms would soon be shedding workers faster than hiring them to the point of negative job growth.”
Nonfarm payrolls probably grew 75,000 in August, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists, which would mark a fourth straight month of job growth below 100,000.
The unemployment rate is seen rising to 4.3% — the highest level since 2021.
“The Federal Reserve’s free pass on the labor market has ended,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.
“You can expect the Fed to tilt its balance of risks to cut rates in September.”
Tomorrow’s jobs report will be the deciding factor, but so far this week, the data is confirming a slowdown in the labor market, according to Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“In the short term, markets may embrace that data because it should increase the odds of Fed rate cuts,” he said.
“But if the numbers deteriorate too much, it could raise concerns about the health of the economy.”
The silver-lining is the weaker the jobs data the more cover there is for stimulative interest rate cuts that are on the horizon, according to Eric Teal at Comerica Wealth Management.
“The boost in the latter half of this year should come from easier monetary policy and stimulative fiscal policies to avoid further economic deterioration,” he said.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that investor focus has dramatically shifted to payrolls after the weak number and large revisions last month.
According to the tally, 36% of respondents think the reaction to Friday’s data will be “risk-off,” 35% said “mixed/negligible” and 29% “risk-on.”
“The most relevant question for the August payrolls report is: did June see the bottoming for job creation or is there still further downside yet to be realized?” said Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
He also noted this won’t be the deciding factor behind whether the Fed cuts by 25 basis points in September, but it will influence the degree to which the Fed’s economic projections lay the groundwork for cuts over the balance of 2025.
“In the event that Friday’s data shows an improvement from the recent lull in hiring, then the Fed would have grounds for a patient approach to rate cuts over the balance of the year,” he said.
The Fed has kept rates unchanged in 2025, largely due to concerns tariffs could stoke inflation.
But lackluster employment figures have prompted greater concern, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently signaled a cut could be warranted amid a “shifting balance of risks.”
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech last week that the data support the view that “labor demand may be on the edge of a sharp decline,” a trend he argued monetary policy should address.
Waller has been one of the most vocal Fed governors favoring interest-rate cuts to guard against an outright deterioration in the job market.
Earlier Wednesday, Waller suggested the possibility of multiple reductions in borrowing costs by the end of the year.
Separate data Thursday showed activity at US service providers expanded in August at the fastest pace in six months on the sharpest acceleration in orders in nearly a year.
The solid advance in those demand indicators suggests the largest part of the economy is gaining some traction after five straight months of sluggishness.
Twelve services industries expanded last month, led by information, wholesale trade and arts and entertainment.
Activity contracted in four industries.
“Overall, the data showed a solid rebound in business activity among service providers despite there being some pockets of weakness within the details of the report,” said Hartman at BMO.
“From here, the path has been cleared to set up for tomorrow’s payrolls report.”
‘Over Time’
Fed Bank of New York President John Williams said his forecast is that it will “become appropriate” to cut interest rates “over time,” without clarifying the timing or pace of such moves.
Meantime, the US Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into whether Fed Governor Lisa Cook committed mortgage fraud — ratcheting up pressure in Trump’s bid to oust her from the central bank.
Federal prosecutors have issued subpoenas seeking information related to allegations that Cook misrepresented information on mortgage applications, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing the ongoing probe. 

Corporate Highlights:
* Broadcom Inc., a chip supplier to companies like Alphabet Inc. and Apple Inc., delivered a revenue forecast for the current period that failed to impress some investors, a sign they were anticipating a bigger payoff from the AI boom.
* Lululemon Athletica Inc. slashed its outlook, exacerbating investor concerns that the yoga wear retailer is struggling to pull out of a sales slump after years of rapid growth.
* Boeing Co. plans to start hiring permanent replacements for some of the 3,200 hourly workers on strike at its St. Louis defense hub, escalating tensions with no break in sight for the one-month-old labor impasse.
* CVS Caremark is facing multiple federal lawsuits by patients challenging its decision to remove weight-loss drug Zepbound from its list of preferred medications after signing a rebate agreement with Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk A/S.
* The Trump administration is taking steps to make it easier for automakers to deploy-self driving cars by removing some requirements designed specifically for human drivers — like windshield wipers.
* Tesla Inc. said it has opened its robotaxi app to the general public, suggesting the company will soon roll out the service beyond a select group of early access users in Austin, Texas.
* General Motors Co. will start the launch of the Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicle in December with one shift at its plant in Kansas, less than the two shifts initially planned for the plug- in compact due to uncertain EV demand, the company said.
* Microsoft Corp. is set to avoid a potentially hefty antitrust fine after the European Union got positive feedback on the US software giant’s offer to settle a probe into the allegedly illegal bundling of its Teams video-conferencing app.
* Salesforce Inc. projected lackluster quarterly sales growth, suggesting its artificial intelligence product isn’t yet paying off as quickly as hoped in the face of competition from emerging AI companies.
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. Chief Executive Officer Antonio Neri said the company expects to weather a slimming of profit margins as it enters a new era of artificial intelligence-driven demand.
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will invest as much as $1 billion in T. Rowe Price Group Inc. and team up with the asset manager to sell private-market products to retail investors.
* American Eagle Outfitters Inc. skyrocketed on higher-than- expected quarterly sales, weeks after the jeans-maker found itself embroiled in a social media firestorm over its controversial Sydney Sweeney ad campaign.
* Paramount Skydance Corp. signed a three-year agreement to distribute Legendary Entertainment’s upcoming films in cinemas, the latest in a flurry of deals for the studio since new management took over weeks ago.
* OpenAI plans to launch a new AI-powered jobs platform next year to help match employers with candidates who have artificial intelligence skills in a bid to accelerate the technology’s deployment across businesses and government agencies.
* C3 AI Inc. named Stephen Ehikian as its new chief executive officer, replacing founder Tom Siebel, who will remain executive chairman.
** Separately, the company reported that subscription revenue slipped 18% in the fiscal first quarter. Siebel called the financial performance “completely unacceptable.”
* Figma Inc., a design software company, gave an annual revenue outlook that failed to impress investors in its first report as a public company.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1650
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3435
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 148.49 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $109,838.51
* Ether fell 4.2% to $4,277.74
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.16%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.72%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.59%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.86%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $63.35 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,550.16 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Difficulties strengthen the mind, as labour does the body. –Seneca, 4 BCE-65 CE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
September 3, 1783: The Treaty of Paris is signed, formally ending the American Revolutionary War and recognizing US independence.
September 3, 1929: The Dow Jones industrial average closed at 381.17, its pre-crash high. Go to article.

Charlie Sheen, actor, b.1965.

Newly discovered bus-size asteroid will zoom close past Earth today — and will not return for exactly 100 years

Asteroid 2025 QV5, which was first spotted in late August, will make a close approach to Earth on Wednesday (Sept. 3). It will not get this near to us again until Sept. 4, 2125. Read More.

1,000-year-old ‘king’ game piece with a distinctive hairstyle is ‘as close as we will ever get to a portrait of a Viking’

A unique game piece from Norway that was crafted during the time of Harald Bluetooth may depict a Viking king. Read More.

See what would happen to Tokyo if Mount Fuji erupted ‘without any warning’ in new AI-generated video

Japanese government officials have released an AI video to show just how devastating an eruption at Mount Fuji could be. But don’t worry,
the dormant volcano is currently not at risk of blowing. Read More.

Dozens of mysterious blobs discovered inside Mars may be the remnants of ‘failed planets’

“Marsquake” data collected by NASA’s InSight lander have revealed dozens of mysterious blobs within the Red Planet’s mantle. The structures may have been left by powerful impacts up to 4.5 billion years ago. Read More.

‘Extremely alarming’: ChatGPT and Gemini respond to high-risk questions about suicide — including details around methods

Researchers have found that OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude can give direct responses to “high-risk” questions about suicide. In Live Science’s testing, ChatGPT and Gemini responded to even more extreme questions. Read More.

Life imitates art, with a twist
Actress Candice Bergen once played Vogue’s top editor on “Sex and the City.” Now, her daughter Chloe Malle will tackle the highly sought-after job in reality.

TikTokers tapped for ‘SNL’
After a string of departures, the long-running sketch show is adding five new people to the cast, including three who boast robust followings on the social media site.

Oscar-winning actor doesn’t watch movies anymore
“I’m just being honest with you. I don’t watch movies, man. I don’t go to the movies,” he said.

Taco Bell taps into Y2K nostalgia
Your favorite menu items from the 2000s may be making a comeback.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Gennep, the Netherlands
The peloton during the 124.5km second stage of the Simac Ladies Tour
Photograph: Luc Claessen/Getty Images

Büttelborn, Germany
Storks take off from a field in the suburb outside Darmstadt
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Anfeh, Lebanon
Sea salt production in Anfeh. Sea water is drawn into shallow, concrete-lined basins, where it evaporates over several months, leaving behind salt crystals that are harvested
Photograph: Wael Hamzeh/EPA
Market Closes for September 3^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45271.23	-24.58
		-0.05%
S&P 500	6448.26	+32.72
		+0.51%
NASDAQ	21497.73	+218.10
		+1.02%
TSX	28751.36	+135.74
		+0.47%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41938.89	-371.60
		-0.88%
HANG SENG	25343.43	-153.12
		-0.60%
SENSEX	80567.71	+409.83
		+0.51%
FTSE 100*	9177.99	+61.30
		+0.67%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.386	3.444
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.843	3.897
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2168	4.2614
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.8968	4.9614

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7249	0.7254
US $	1.3795	1.3785

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6084	0.6217
US $	1.1660	0.8546

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3490.00	3474.90
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.97	65.59

Market Commentary:
There is no substitute for hard work. -Thomas A. Edison, 1847-1931.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the sixth day, climbing 0.5%, or 135.74 to 28,751.36 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.6% on Aug. 26.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 129 of 211 shares rose, while 82 fell.
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 6.3%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 16%, heading for the best year since 2024
* This quarter, the index rose 7.1%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 29.3% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.5% in the past 5 days and rose 6.4% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 on a trailing basis and 18 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.59t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.78% compared with 9.73% in the previous session and the average of 9.79% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 54.6122| 0.6| 20/4
Materials | 35.4087| 0.8| 33/15
Information Technology | 33.8237| 1.2| 8/2
Consumer Staples | 27.8846| 2.8| 10/0
Communication Services | 4.2505| 0.7| 4/1
Real Estate | 3.9380| 0.8| 16/3
Industrials | 2.2517| 0.1| 17/12
Consumer Discretionary | 2.1487| 0.2| 6/3
Health Care | -0.6688| -1.0| 1/2
Utilities | -5.9156| -0.6| 5/9
Energy | -21.9790| -0.5| 9/31
Couche-Tard | 23.6100| 6.3| 111.0| -7.7
Shopify | 15.1700| 0.9| -31.5| 26.5
RBC | 14.2500| 0.7| -49.6| 16.0
Suncor | -7.0430| -1.4| 9.3| 9.4
Brookfield Corp | -12.8400| -1.4| -19.9| 9.1
Canadian Natural Resources | -15.1000| -2.3| 59.4| -2.9
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed Wednesday at another record high for the eighth time in the last nine sessions, with markets given a fresh boost as the first update in days on how trade talk between Canada and the United States is progressing was largely positive.
Even with commodity prices mixed the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index was up 135.74 points, or near 0.5%, to 28,751.36 today, having risen 51.17 points a day earlier.
Most sectors were higher Wednesday, with Base Metals up 1.9% and the Battery Metals Index up 1.5%, and Info Tech up near 1.4%.
Energy was down 1.7% and Health Care down 1.3%.
For some perspective on how the index has soared in a month, the TSX closed at a record high of 27,920.87 on the first Wednesday of August.
Indeed, it closed at a then record 27,570.88 the day before that, Tuesday, August 5, after the Civic Holiday weekend.
After a few days when trade talk didn’t dominate national news, at least in this country, it was again a top topic today after Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed to reporters that he spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump “at length” on Monday evening and called it a “good” conversation.
“We spoke at length on a wide range of issues, including on trade, but geopolitical, other issues, labour issues, et cetera,” Carney said ahead of a meeting with his cabinet on Wednesday.
When asked when Canadians can expect to see results from trade talks with the U.S., Carney reiterated that Canada already has “the best trade deal of any country in the world,” because 85% of Canadian trade with the U.S. is tariff-free.
But Carney did hint at some possible relaxation in tariffs on strategic sectors such as steel, aluminum and autos, among others, although he did not provide a timeline on this.
“Don’t expect immediate white smoke on one of these strategic sectors, but that’s the type of conversation that we’re having, and we’ll continue to have as well.”
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high late afternoon Wednesday, topping US$3,600 an ounce for the first time as traders bet on a Federal Reserve rate cut and safe haven buying rises amid stagflation concerns.
Gold for December delivery was up $28.50 to US$3,620.70 per ounce, up from Tuesday’s record close of $3,592.20.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower following a report that OPEC+ is considering another production increase next month, days after fully restoring 2.2-million barrels per day of supply cuts with a final 548,000 bpd hike.
WTI crude for October delivery closed down $1.62 to settle at US$6397per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down $1.60 to US$67.50.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders kept piling into bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September as weak labor data lifted bonds.
Those wagers also propped up stocks, which halted a two-day rout amid a rally in big tech.
Just 48 hours ahead of the all-important US payrolls report, a drop in job openings to the lowest in 10 months saw traders almost fully pricing in a Fed cut this month and projecting at least two reductions in 2025.
Treasuries bounced after a slide that put the 30-year yield close to 5%.
The dollar fell.
While most S&P 500 shares slipped, Alphabet Inc. hit a record high as Google dodged a sale of Chrome.
Apple Inc. plans to launch an AI-powered web search tool for Siri.
In late hours, Salesforce Inc. forecast lackluster sales growth.
The drop in vacancies indicates companies are becoming more cautious and selective with their hiring as they attempt to gauge the impact of tariffs on the economy.
In addition to the openings data, the pace of hiring has slowed, and it is taking longer for unemployed people to find another position.
“This data point does confirm the slowing pace of hirings being seen in a variety of stats in the aggregate, but something we’re well aware of — and why the Fed is cutting rates by 25 basis points in two weeks,” said Peter Boockvar at The Boock Report.
Before that, Friday’s jobs data will be a crucial input for Fed officials.
Some are less concerned about the slowdown in payrolls growth because it’s being accompanied by a decline in the participation rate.
They’re also wary of reducing borrowing costs when inflation is gradually increasing.
Others, like Governor Christopher Waller say the central bank should begin lowering rates in September and make multiple cuts in coming months, adding that officials could debate the precise pace of reductions. He spoke on CNBC.
At Bankrate, Mark Hamrick says the broader labor trend aligns with what he’s been calling a “no fire, no hire” job market.
That means, many employers are reluctant to cut jobs, but also cautious about bringing on new workers.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the soft job-openings report hardens the already high likelihood of a September Fed cut, making it still more difficult for Friday’s jobs report to derail the move.
“As softening in labor demand has not been accompanied by a rise in layoffs or a pullback in spending, investors and policymakers should be wary of interpreting payrolls softness as an imminent recessionary signal,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
The so-called JOLTS report may not be “flashing alarm bells”, but it’s the latest data point that reiterates a soft jobs market in the US, according to Bret Kenwell at eToro.
While the US economy may have the cushion to absorb a softer jobs market, investors want to be careful not to see it develop into a weak labor market, he said.
“Today’s report is the latest data point that helps tip the Fed’s scale toward a rate cut,” he said.
“But in the long-term, investors should not cheer for notable labor-market weakness for the sole benefit of lower rates.”
Economists project about 75,000 jobs were added in August, based on the median of a Bloomberg survey, while the jobless rate is seen at 4.3%.
Four straight months of sub-100,000 payrolls growth would mark the weakest such stretch since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.
“A large downside surprise in labor market data could push rates sharply lower given the concern around the Fed’s labor mandate,” said TD Securities strategists including Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg.
“We remain biased long on dips and expect rates to move lower throughout the year.”
They also said “risk-reward feels more balanced” heading into Friday’s payrolls.
‘Bar Is High’
“The bar is high to price out September and alternatively, a sharp tick higher in the unemployment rate is needed to price in some odds of a 50 basis-point cut and for it to weigh significantly on the dollar,” the TD strategists said.
Meantime, US rate strategists at Bank of America Corp. made trade recommendations based on the possibility that the Fed will ease policy prematurely.
“The market is likely to price a dovish Fed that over- weights softening employment vs inflation, which our US economists see as a policy mistake,” and “ongoing challenges to Fed independence also influence our core rates views,” BofA strategists including Mark Cabana and Meghan Swiber said.
“A Fed that may be biased to cut rates more aggressively near-term vs what we see justified by fundamentals creates scope for higher inflation risk and potential future hikes,” they wrote.
The Fed has kept rates unchanged in 2025, largely due to concerns tariffs could stoke inflation.
But lackluster employment figures have prompted greater concern, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently signaled a cut could be warranted amid a “shifting balance of risks.”
Absent a meaningful upside surprise in the jobs report this week, the Fed will cut 25 basis points in September — which is a “constructive backdrop for risk assets,” she said.
“But at this juncture, we’re still doubtful a September cut points to a prolonged interest rate cutting cycle,” Goodwin noted.
“Risks to inflation are real and coming from many angles (tariffs, corporate margin protection, a sharp falloff in labor market supply).
What’s more, financial conditions are very loose, making it difficult to justify a rapid rate-cutting cycle in our view.”
In the aftermath of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, BofA clients shelled out roughly $1.5 billion for small-cap stocks, the second-largest allocation in the firm’s data history going back to 2008.
The clients were big net buyers of US equities in week ended Aug. 29, with inflows of $2.3 billion into single stocks and $2.1 billion into exchange-traded funds, strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said.
Stocks bounced Wednesday after having started September on a sour note amid lofty technology valuations and concerns about global fiscal outlooks.
“September began with a predictable wave of volatility, with tariff uncertainty and rumors driving behavior in a vacuum of tangible data,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Following the tremendous rally since April and given the elevated valuations/expectations and rumbling of macro concern, a period of consolidation is not unexpected or unhealthy.”
‘Dip Buying’
Investors should buy the dip in stocks as global growth is holding up better than expected and the Fed is likely to cut rates going forward, Barclays Plc strategists led by Emmanuel Cau said.
While positioning is higher, ample dry powder remains on the sidelines, they noted.
“If anything, add on weakness,” said Steve Chiavarone at Federated Hermes.
“If you cut away the noise and volatility, I’m not going to bet against the US market in an environment where earnings are growing, estimates are accelerating, economic data is good, and rates are going to come down.”
Meantime, HSBC strategists increased their year-end target for the S&P 500 for the second time in a month, citing a boost from better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
Nicole Inui now expects the benchmark to end the year at 6,500 points.
The gauge closed Wednesday at 6,448.26.
“We believe that as long as cracks don’t begin to form within AI spending expectations, stocks will continue to grind higher after the seasonally weaker September period,” said Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research.
“However, these lofty expectations can cut both ways as we see AI spending expectations as a key risk for 2026.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google avoided a breakup after a US judge ruled against the government’s most onerous proposals, including a forced sale of its Chrome browser.
** While it’s barred from exclusivity deals, Google will still be allowed to pay its partners — a key win for Apple Inc., which has received roughly $20 billion a year for making Google search the default on iPhones.
* Apple Inc. is planning to launch its own artificial intelligence-powered web search tool next year, stepping up competition with OpenAI and Perplexity AI Inc.
* Salesforce Inc. projected lackluster quarterly sales growth, fueling Wall Street’s fears that the software giant is losing out to competition from emerging artificial intelligence companies.
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. gave disappointing earnings forecast for the current period, renewing concerns about tightening margins in the server computer industry.
* American Eagle Outfitters Inc. posted higher-than-expected quarterly sales, weeks after the jeans-maker found itself embroiled in a social media firestorm over its controversial Sydney Sweeney ad campaign.
* Macy’s Inc. raised its annual outlook and reported its best comparable sales growth in three years, the latest signs that consumers are still spending despite concerns about inflation and tariffs.
* Pfizer Inc. defended the research supporting its Covid vaccine in statement on its website, in a direct response to a social media post by President Donald Trump over the weekend questioning whether drug companies were withholding information about the shots.
* ConocoPhillips, the largest independent US oil producer, plans to cut as much as a quarter of its global workforce amid lower crude prices and expectations of peaking shale output.
* WestJet, Canada’s second-largest airline, will purchase 67 Boeing Co. aircraft with an option for more, placing its biggest-ever order in a push for future growth even as trade tensions with the US persist.
* Tyson Foods Inc. said its supply chain chief left the company after violating internal rules, marking the second senior executive departure for improper behavior in just over a year.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., which is splitting itself in two, could sell a 20% stake in its studio and streaming business before the planned separation next year.
* Dollar Tree Inc. said that profit for the current quarter would be little changed as the lift from price hikes to offset tariffs wanes.
* Campbell’s Co.’s earnings beat estimates as Milano cookies helped its snacks business outperform.
* ServiceNow Inc. is offering federal agencies discounts of as much as 70% on its software, a move aimed at spurring adoption as the Trump administration presses for faster government implementation of artificial intelligence tools.
* The Trump administration is moving to block the development of more offshore wind projects, the latest in a series of high- profile setbacks for an industry that’s caught the president’s ire.
* French artificial intelligence startup Mistral AI is finalizing a €2 billion investment that values the company at €12 billion ($14 billion), including the new funding — solidifying its position as one of Europe’s most valuable tech startups.
* Michael Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital Inc. is offering a version of its Nasdaq-listed shares that can be traded on the Solana blockchain, aiming to spur similar tokenization efforts.
* A year after losing its spot in Britain’s blue-chip benchmark, Burberry Group Plc is returning to the UK’s stock-market elite.
* Unilever Plc Chief Executive Officer Fernando Fernandez expects to replace a quarter of the group’s top 200 managers following a performance review, as he leads an overhaul of the maker of Dove soap.
“History has ample evidence that bonds will regain favor during times of economic turmoil.
Also, risk premiums look mor subdued now than back in July and May of this year, when long- dated yields broke above 5%.
And a September rate-cut is nearly locked in too. These conditions will cap how much higher yields can go.”
— Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1658
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3439
* The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 148.14 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $112,223.79
* Ether rose 3.8% to $4,480.16
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.22%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.74%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.75%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.62%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.90%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.5% to $63.93 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,564.24 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

One cannot be strong without love.  For love is not an irrelevant emotion; it is the blood of life,
the power of reunion of the separated. – Paul Tillich, The Eternal Now, 1886-1965.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com