August 9, 2024 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

Look up this weekend: You might see one of the best meteor showers of the year.
On Aug. 9, 1945, the United States exploded a nuclear device over Nagasaki, Japan, instantly killing an estimated 39,000 people. The explosion came three days after the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. Go to article >>
August 9, 1974: Nixon resigns.

Coco Chanel, designer, b. 1883.

Jerusalem’s Second Temple was built with gigantic stone blocks — now we think we know where they came from.
Archaeologists discovered a 2,000-year-old rock quarry in Jerusalem which may have provided the massive stone building blocks used in the Second Temple. Read More.

Scientists drill longest-ever piece of Earth’s mantle from underwater mountain near ‘Lost City’.
Scientists just pulled the longest hunk of Earth’s mantle from beneath the ocean. Read More.

‘Extremely unusual’: Hottest ocean temperature in 400 years threatens the Great Barrier Reef
The sea surface temperature around the Great Barrier Reef this year is the hottest it has ever been in 400 years, posing huge threats to the coral reef ecosystem in the area. Full Story: Live Science (8/8) 

Researchers want to build ‘streetlights’ on the moon — and they’d be taller than the Statue of Liberty
A private company has received funding from the U.S. government to build the first-ever “streetlights” on the moon — towering, Statue of Liberty-sized structures that could withstand the brutal lunar night. Read More.

San Diego Zoo’s new giant pandas make their public debut
Too adorable to bear! CNN got an upfront viewing experience of the first giant pandas to debut in the US in more than 20 years. Watch the video here.

Team USA men’s basketball advances to Olympic gold medal game
Team USA, led by LeBron James and Steph Curry, defeated Serbia 95-91 on Thursday. They will now take on France in the gold medal game on Saturday. 

Olympic champion Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone smashes world record and makes history
The 25-year-old superstar won the gold medal in the women’s 400-meter hurdles in a world record time of 50.37 seconds.

Baking soda water is the new health trend
Some say baking soda water helps improve exercise performance, acid reflux, energy levels and more. Here’s what the experts think.

Pot of gold coins uncovered in excavation of ancient Greek city
The excavation of an ancient Greek city in Turkey uncovered a stash of gold coins from about 2,500 years ago. See the photo here.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Al-Alamein, Egypt
Paragliders fly over a beach on the Mediterranean coast
Photograph: Amr Nabil/AP
Nevsehir, Turkey
Fairy chimneys are seen with light illuminations created with different techniques in Cappadocia. The chimneys are formed by volcanic eruptions and erosions over millions of years and are considered as one of the unique characteristics of the geography.
Photograph: Harun Ozalp/Anadolu/Getty Images

A whale breaches as Brazil’s Tatiana Weston-Webb and Costa Rica’s Brisa Hennessy compete in the women’s surfing semi-finals during the Paris 2024 Olympic Games in Teahupo’o, Tahiti
Photograph: Jérôme Brouillet/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for August 9^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1974, President Richard Nixon resigned, crippled by the Watergate scandal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%. 
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 85.68 to 22,311.30 in Toronto. The index advanced to the highest closing level since Aug. 1.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.2%. Iamgold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 15.4%.
Today, 126 of 226 shares rose, while 94 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 0.4%
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.9% below its 52-week high on July 31, 2024 and 19.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 on a trailing basis and 15.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.53t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.63% compared with 14.72% in the previous session and the average of 11.64% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 51.1250| 0.7| 21/5
Materials | 28.8149| 1.1| 40/12
Information Technology | 16.5000| 0.9| 7/3
Energy | 15.0311| 0.4| 23/15
Real Estate | 0.7292| 0.1| 13/5
Health Care | -0.1703| -0.3| 1/3
Communication Services | -0.1717| 0.0| 2/3
Consumer Staples | -1.4267| -0.1| 3/8
Consumer Discretionary | -4.0114| -0.5| 4/9
Utilities | -6.0890| -0.7| 4/11
Industrials | -14.6474| -0.5| 8/20
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | | Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 8.6900| 1.2| -31.3| 10.2
Shopify | 8.2820| 1.0| -45.9| -7.8
TD Bank | 7.1820| 0.8| -75.6| -8.5
Restaurant Brands | -4.5320| -2.1| -16.4| -6.5
Canadian Pacific | | | |
Kansas | -4.6930| -0.7| -31.5| 1.9
Algonquin Power | -5.1560| -12.6| 366.6| -11.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rebound in stocks in the final stretch of a wild week drove the market to its biggest back-to-back advance in 2024.
That semblance of calm stands in stark contrast to the recent gyrations that rattled the global financial world. After the many ups and downs — including Monday’s panic selling — the S&P 500 nearly wiped out its losses for the week.
There’s been no shortage of drama in August, hitting a market that was showing signs of exhaustion. Worries about the Federal Reserve being behind the curve after some weak economic numbers left traders on edge. Conflicting views around Japan’s policy path have worsened the convulsions, with the battered carry trade ricocheting across asset classes.
“Even if that nerve-racking event is over, we learned how sensitive markets now are to cooler US economic data, how broad- reaching the impact of the yen carry trade can be, and how conditioned investors are to expect rate cuts as the salve for every scrape,” said Liz Young Thomas at SoFi.
At Lazard, Ronald Temple noted that the severity of the slide was a reminder the market has appreciated materially, reaching valuations that most would agree were extended. Still, he views the selloff as “excessive.”
“For investors who measure performance in years, indiscriminate drawdowns like that seen in the last week can represent great opportunities if the fundamentals have not materially changed,” he said.
The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, while finishing down for a fourth straight week — its longest losing streak since September 2023. Expedia Group Inc. climbed on better-than-expected results. Cisco Systems Inc. plans to eliminate thousands more jobs in a second round of layoffs this year, Reuters reported.
Treasury 10-year yields fell five basis points to 3.94%.
After pricing aggressive Fed cuts this week, traders pared bets to about 100 basis points of easing for the year. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg see only a quarter-point decrease in September. That’s at odds with calls from some big banks for a jumbo cut.
To John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management, the bull market has room to run.
“We’re still bullish on stocks, he said. “US economic fundamentals remain on solid footing despite the drag of tight monetary policy, which we believe will soon be reduced.” Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — subsided further on Friday, hovering around 20. That’s after an unprecedented spike that took the gauge above 65 on Monday, a rare level normally signaling utter panic. That unusual surge has raised some questions on whether the index was actually “overstating” all that stress in the US stock market.
The old saying that “volatility is the price you pay for equity market returns” is absolutely true, but deciphering what volatile markets say about the future is a valuable exercise nonetheless, according to Nicholas Colas at DataTrek Research.
“Current market conditions are not comfortable, to say the least,” Colas said. “But they are neither flashing a robust recession warning nor condemning the current bull market to a premature end. After a rough week, we take comfort in that message.”
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers urged the Securities and Exchange Commission and relevant exchanges to look into the historic surge in the most-watched gauge of US financial volatility on Monday.
“My understanding is that because there are some illiquid instruments that go into the calculation of the VIX, the VIX had a somewhat artificial move on Monday,” Summers said on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin on Friday.
“Since that is so widely watched an indicator, issues of liquidity, issues around how it settles, I think should be studied by the relevant parties in the industry and the
regulator — the SEC.”
As broad-based selling gripped equity markets early this week, a sentiment signal sank to one of its lowest points in history.
The stock-bond ratio — which compares the S&P 500 against a long-dated Treasury to test whether equities are cheap or expensive compared to bonds — also serves as a measure for market sentiment, said Dean Christians at SentimenTrader.
And similar periods of panic-driven fear in the past were followed by excellent returns. Since 1962, the ratio dipped this far only 13 other times, and in more than 90% of those instances, the S&P 500 rallied a year later.
At Bank of America Corp., Michael Hartnett says the turbulence has yet to reach proportions that would signal worries about a hard economic landing.
“Technical levels that would flip Wall Street’s narrative from soft to hard landing have not been broken,” Hartnett said.
“Investor feedback is ‘frazzled’,” but expectations of Fed rate cuts mean that preference for stocks over bonds hasn’t been ended by the market rout, he added.
For now, the absence of any major economic news until next Wednesday’s consumer price index will likely lead to subsiding market volatility, according to Mark Luschini at Janney Montgomery Scott.
Still, he notes that August and September are seasonally weak for equities — so volatility might expect to be present, especially in the midst of a contested presidential election.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro was unchanged at $1.0919
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2762
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 146.64 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $60,668.49
* Ether rose 0.8% to $2,591.07
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.94%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.22%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.94%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1% to $76.98 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,430.32 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Robert Brand, Chiranjivi Chakraborty and Richard Henderson.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Great thoughts speak only to the thoughtful of mind, but great actions speak to all mankind. –Theodore Roosevelt, 1858-1919.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com