August 30, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!
Happy 94^th birthday Warren Buffett!

August 30, 1918: Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin is shot twice in an unsuccessful assassination attempt.

August 30, 1962: The second level of the George Washington Bridge opens, becoming the world’s only fourteen-lane bridge.

Fossil reveals details of sea cow’s death 15 million years ago
By analyzing the rare fossil, unearthed in Venezuela, researchers were able to piece together how the manatee-like marine mammal was killed by a crocodile and a tiger shark. Talk about an unlucky day.

Officer’s bodycam captures his gator-wrangling skills 
The Fulshear Police Department near Houston, Texas, shared video online of the officer fearlessly removing an alligator from a resident’s doorstep. Watch how he did it.

Plane struggles to land in typhoon
Strong winds from Typhoon Shanshan prevented the plane from landing on Japan’s southernmost main island Kyushu.                  `        “

‘Everything we found shattered our expectations’: Archaeologists discover 1st astronomical observatory from ancient Egypt
This first ancient Egyptian observatory discovered in modern times showcases advanced knowledge of astronomy and its profound link to the Egyptians’ spiritual and ritualistic practices. Read More.

Ancient people in Taiwan yanked healthy teeth from their mouths for ‘aesthetic expression’ and ‘tests of courage,’ study finds
For thousands of years, people in Taiwan pulled out healthy teeth. Now we know why they underwent this painful procedure. Read More.

James Webb telescope spots 6 enormous ‘rogue planets’ tumbling through space without a star
The James Webb Space Telescope has uncovered six “rogue planets” careening through space without a star. The objects are believed to have formed directly from gas collapse, blurring the lines between planets and stars.
Read More.

China’s upgraded light-powered ‘AGI chip’ is now a million times more efficient than before, researchers say
The Taichi-II chiplet, which could one day power super-intelligent AI models, ups the ante in light-based processing. Read More.

RIP
The king of New Zealand’s indigenous Māori people, Kiingi Tuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero VII, died peacefully earlier today, according to a statement from his representatives. He was 69. The king had been in the hospital recovering from heart surgery just days after celebrating the 18th anniversary of his coronation, the statement added. He had experienced poor health in recent years, including cancer and diabetes, according to CNN affiliate RNZ.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
Paralympic torchbearers Charles-Antoine Kouakou, Nantenin Keita, Fabien Lamirault, Alexis Hanquinquant and Elodie Lorandi watch as the Paris Paralympic Games 2024 cauldron lifts off during the opening ceremony at the Jardin des Tuileries. The 17th Paralympic Games began under blue skies then lit up the night as Paris made a powerful start in extending to disability sport the same energy and joy that has characterised its summer.
Photograph: Franck Fife/AFP/Getty Images

Obergoms, Switzerland
Glaciologist Matthias Huss enters an ice cave at the tongue of the Rhone glacier.
Photograph: Denis Balibouse/Reuters

​​​​​​​The migration of the northern bald ibis, or the waldrapp, is watched on and supported by foster parents of the birds in a microlight aircraft across central Europe
Photograph: AP
Market Closes for August 30^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.5%, or 118.69 to 23,346.18 in Toronto.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.4%.
Capstone Copper Corp. had the largest increase, rising 4.3%.
Today, 146 of 226 shares rose, while 75 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 1%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.3%
* The index advanced 15% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 24% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on Aug. 26, 2024 and 24.9% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.69t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 13.89% compared with 13.85% in the previous session and the average of 13.87% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 69.6848| 1.0| 23/4
Information Technology | 26.3854| 1.4| 9/1
Industrials | 15.6413| 0.5| 20/7
Consumer Discretionary | 8.8098| 1.1| 12/1
Real Estate | 3.4457| 0.7| 17/3
Communication Services | 2.4500| 0.3| 4/1
Materials | 2.1756| 0.1| 25/25
Utilities | 1.8732| 0.2| 10/5
Health Care | 0.3554| 0.6| 3/0
Consumer Staples | -2.3665| -0.2| 5/6
Energy | -9.7688| -0.2| 18/22
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 22.0400| 1.4| -11.6| 21.6
Constellation Software | 14.6100| 2.5| 37.7| 34.0
Enbridge | 12.7800| 1.6| -4.9| 13.7
Cenovus Energy | -5.2520| -2.2| -1.3| 13.7
Suncor | -5.4810| -1.1| 72.0| 28.8
Canadian Natural Resources | -15.1300| -2.0| 48.1| 12.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks climbed in the final stretch of a wild August, with traders bracing for what’s historically known as the worst month for equities.
For all the whiplash in global markets just a few weeks ago, the S&P 500 closed within a whisker of its all-time highs.
Equities spiked in the last 10 minutes of Wall Street trading, with the S&P 500 up 1% and all of its major groups on the rise.
The gauge notched its fourth straight monthly gain amid data showing the economy is holding up, while leaving the door open for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September.
Whether a jumbo-sized reduction remains on the table, next week’s jobs report might bring some clues.
“As August comes to a close, sentiment has calmed down significantly compared to the beginning of the month,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “Many of the larger concerns in the overall economy have decreased. September may bring some seasonal challenges, but if investors can navigate through them, these challenges can turn into advantages in the fourth quarter.”
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has generated an average loss 0.7% in September and finished higher only 43% of the time, making it the worst month for stocks on an average return and positivity-rate basis, according to Adam Turnquist LPL Financial.
The last four Septembers have also been notably weak, with the index posting respective declines of 4.9%, 9.3%, 4.8%, and 3.9%.
“During the month, the index tends to trade sideways during the first half, with losses beginning to accumulate into month end,” he said. “For this year, the midway point also happens to line up closely with the September Fed meeting.”
The S&P 500 rose to around 5,650.
Volume was thin ahead of Monday’s US holiday.
The Nasdaq 100 added 1.3%.
The Russell 2000 of small firms gained 0.7%.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is planning to cut more than 1,300 employees from its global workforce, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Dell Technologies Inc. rallied on solid results.
Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — dropped to around 15.
That’s after an unprecedented spike that took the index above 65 during the Aug. 5 market selloff.
An options trader or traders bought call spreads on the VIX — expiring in September, spending upwards of $9 million to protect against a spike in the gauge of S&P 500 volatility past 22.
Treasury 10-year yields climbed five basis points to 3.91%.
The dollar rose at the end of its worst month this year.
Oil sank.
Data from Bespoke Investment Group found that over the past 100 years, September also has by far been the worst month of the year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average with an average decline of 1.24%.
A Citigroup Inc. analysis of data since 1928 suggests S&P 500’s average realized volatility for September has historically been 1.5 points above August, while October has been an additional 2.5 points higher.
There are a few theories for why September tends to be a weaker month for stocks.
For one thing, investors returning from summer vacations tend to reassess portfolio positioning defensively.
Companies prepare their budgets for the coming year and debate belt tightening. And mutual funds often engage in “window dressing” by selling positions at a loss to reduce the size of their capital-gains distributions.
“Additionally, companies entering a blackout period for share repurchases at the end of the third quarter can have their ability to support their share price impacted if the price drops,” Hackett said.
While seasonality can be reason enough for some jitters, 2024 is also an election year, Bespoke remarked.
With that added potential cause for concern, September’s performance in election years has again, leaned negative, the firm said.
For all post-World War II presidential election years, the Dow has averaged a 0.58% decline during September.
Albeit negative, that compares with September of non-election years when it has averaged an even larger 1.37%.
“In other words, seasonality has tended to be rough regardless of whether or not it’s an election year,” the Bespoke strategists noted.
For now, many traders are pinning their hopes on more data that will show the economy isn’t falling off a cliff, while inflation keeps marching toward the Fed’s 2% goal.
A report Friday showed US consumer sentiment improved for the first time in five months as slower inflation and prospects for Fed cuts helped lift expectations about personal finances.
The Fed’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation — the core personal consumption expenditures price index — rose at a mild pace.
“This week’s numbers dispel worries about a recession and inflation,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“Goldilocks could be here as Jerome Powell prepares to turn the page.”  Powell said last week the time has come for the central bank to cut its key policy rate, affirming expectations that officials will begin lowering borrowing costs next month and making clear his intention to prevent further jobs cooling.
Like the Fed, investors’ focus seems to be shifting from inflation to the labor market, and soon all eyes will be on next Friday’s monthly jobs report, said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“Last month’s jobs report was a big miss, causing widespread worry that the Fed was too late to cut rates,” he noted. “Another big miss could increase speculation of a 50 basis-point cut vs. the current expectation of a 25 basis-point cut.”
Stock markets are likely to benefit again from good economic data, which is needed for the rally to broaden out further beyond the tech sector, according to Barclays Plc strategists.
The team led by Emmanuel Cau says the monthly US jobs data next week will be the bellwether for confirming or refuting recession worries.
“If it is a bad print, no doubt equities would react badly given their level after the rebound,” they wrote. On the other hand, a better-than-expected figure would “help assuage those recession fears in the short run, and likely be good for equities.”
Cash funds recorded inflows of about $24.5 billion in the week through Aug. 28, a fourth straight week of additions, according to a note from Bank of America Corp., citing EPFR Global data.
About $20.7 billion entered bond funds, while $13.7 billion flowed into stocks, the data showed.
US equities saw a ninth straight week of additions at $5.8 billion.

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. aims to unveil its highly anticipated robotaxi at an event at Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.’s movie studio in the Los Angeles area, people familiar with the matter said. The electric vehicle company is targeting a reveal of the purpose- built robotaxi on Oct. 10 at the Burbank, California, facility, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private.
* Intel Corp. is working with investment bankers to help navigate the most difficult period in its 56-year history, according to people familiar with the matter.
** The company is discussing various scenarios, including a split of its product-design and manufacturing businesses, as well as which factory projects might potentially be scrapped, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private.
* Lululemon Athletica Inc. lowered its sales and profit outlook for the year as increased competition and relentless inflation curb demand for its pricey yoga pants.
* Ulta Beauty Inc. trimmed its sales forecast as more US consumers cut back on makeup and cosmetics in the face of higher prices and elevated borrowing costs.
* Autodesk Inc. raised its full-year earnings outlook following pressure on the software maker from activist investor Starboard Value LP.
* Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s trial of its drug to treat a deadly form of heart disease fell short of investors’ expectations.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1055
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3133
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 146.15 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $58,785.55
* Ether fell 1.3% to $2,507.87
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.91%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.30%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.02%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3% to $73.62 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $2,503 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
No person who is enthusiastic about his work has anything to fear from life. –Samuel Goldwyn, 1882-1974.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com