August 22, 2025,Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
August 22, 1865: William Sheppard is granted a US Patent for liquid soap, paving the way for modern hygiene products.
August 22, 1902: President Theodore Roosevelt became the first U.S. chief executive to ride in an automobile, an electric car, in Hartford, Conn. Go to article.
August 22, 1942: Battle of Stalingrad.

Claude Debussy, composer, b.1862.
Henri Cartier-Bresson, photographer, b. 1908.
John Lee Hooker, blues singer, b. 1915.

Researchers said the breakthrough “paves the way for electronics powered by the ambient light already present in our lives.” Read More.

People with Indigenous American ancestry carry Denisovan genes that Neanderthals passed on when they mated with modern humans. Read More.

One physicist says his design to use nuclear waste as fuel for nuclear fusion could help the U.S. be a leader in the fusion economy.  Read More.

New data from the James Webb telescope suggests that Bennu and Ryugu — two asteroids recently visited by sample-return missions — are both fragments of a single massive “parent.” Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Milan, Italy
A canoeist competes during a hailstorm at the canoe sprint world championships in Milan
Photograph: Zsolt Czeglédi/EPA

Barcelona, Spain
The Castellers de la Vila de Gràcia build the base for a human tower – or castell – during the Gràcia street festival. The Catalan tradition originated in the 18th century but this particular team began in the 1990s
Photograph: Matthias Oesterle/Shutterstock

Diyarbakir, Turkey
Tomatoes are salted and left under the sun from early morning under scorching temperatures until sunset to ensure natural drying
Photograph: Mustafa Kilic/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for Aug 22^nd,2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
To succeed, stay out in front of change. –Sam Walton, 1918-1992.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the thirdday, climbing 1%, or 277.7 to 28,333.13 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.3% on Aug. 6.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 7 of 11 sectors gained; 167 of 211 shares rose, while 43 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.4%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 12.0%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 3.9%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.5%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 on a trailing basis and 17.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.51t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.00% compared with 9.73% in the previous session and the average of 8.47% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 84.6754| 3.0| 9/1
Financials | 71.4840| 0.8| 18/6
Energy | 58.1340| 1.3| 34/6
Materials | 55.7841| 1.4| 47/1
Industrials | 27.3924| 0.8| 23/6
Real Estate | 6.0645| 1.2| 18/1
Consumer Discretionary | 0.7417| 0.1| 7/2
Health Care | -0.2334| -0.3| 0/3
Utilities | -1.4804| -0.1| 7/6
Communication Services | -4.6807| -0.7| 2/3
Consumer Staples | -20.1850| -1.9| 2/8
Shopify | 54.7400| 3.4| 38.7| 28.5
Brookfield Corp | 20.8800| 2.3| 33.9| 10.3
Canadian Natural | Resources | 16.5700| 2.7| 196.9| -3.0
Waste Connections | -6.9440| -1.5| 2.7| 3.6
Dollarama | -7.1210| -1.9| 45.7| 37.8
Loblaw | -7.4360| -3.2| 224.3| 20.3
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange was up for a third-straight day and its second-straight record close on Friday as Canada removed counter tariffs on U.S. goods in a move to deflate trade tensions between the two nations, while BMO Economics is now calling for a total of three interest-rate cuts by next spring.
Also boosted by elevated commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index surged 277.70 points, or 1%, to a record finish of 28,333.13, with most sectors higher.
The biggest gainers were Base Metals and Battery Metals, both up 3%, Info Tech, up 2.6% and Energy, up 2.3%.
Going into Friday’s session, month to date the TSX was up 2.92% and year to date was up 3327.49 points or 13.46%, according to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet.
Among individual stocks, story of the day came from the resources sector with Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) agreeing to acquire MEG Energy (MEG.TO) in a cash, stock and assumed-debt deal valued at $7.9 billion.
With this move, Cenovus appears to have trumped a prior unsolicited bid for MEG from Strathcona Resources (SCR.TO).
Cenovus closed up 7.1%, MEG rose 1.2%, and Strathcona rose 0.2%.
National Bank has upgraded Cenovus to Outperform from Sector Perform, with its Target raised to $28.00 from $24.00.
On the economics front, Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets, in his weekly ‘Talking Points’ note noted Canada is removing a long list of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.
Basically, Porter said, the only items still facing Canadian tariffs will be metals and some autos, largely mirroring U.S. measures.
Porter noted this happened a day after the first conversation between Prime Minister Carney and President Trump in weeks, and he said it is an important step.
According to Porter, the direct implications for the Canadian economy are that it will: take some pressure off specific CPI items (e.g., groceries, sporting equipment), which could help shave core inflation back below 3%, and also that it will further cut into expected tariff revenues.
Porter recalled that the Liberal election platform had been based on annual tariff revenues of $20 billion.
“We are now looking at a fraction of that amount, introducing yet more pressure on the fiscal outlook.”
Porter said: “Our longstanding view has been that the inflation threat from the trade war was a tad overblown, for Canada and for the U.S., albeit for different reasons.
For the States, its unrivalled market power means that the Administration is not fully offside for asserting that companies will ultimately eat some of the tariffs.
For Canada, the two big drivers of potential trade war inflation have vapourized, the retaliatory tariffs, which weren’t that fierce to begin with, have been further declawed; and the Canadian dollar is 3%-to-4% stronger than when the trade war first erupted,
not weaker, even with its recent sag.”
According to Porter, the “back down” on Canadian retaliation should, thus, fully quiet the talk of trade war led inflation, alongside this week’s tempered CPI reading for July.
He noted the latter revealed that the three-month core inflation trend eased to 2.4%, its first trip below 3% since last fall.
Porter said this opens the door to further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.
He noted while a move in September remains a bit of a long shot, markets peg the odds at about 1 in 3, a move in October is seen as likely, and there could be more to come.
Porter added: “We continue to lean to the low side, calling for a total of three cuts by next spring, which would take rates just a touch below the low end of neutral.
But given the more benign trade-related inflation risks and a softening job market, we believe that below neutral would ultimately be entirely appropriate.”
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher on Friday, rising for a third day on high summer demand even as supply is on the rise.
WTI crude for October delivery closed up $0.14 to settle at US$63.66 per barrel, while October Brent oil was last seen up $0.16 to US$67.83.
Gold prices were up late afternoon Friday as the dollar fell sharply following a dovish speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicating the central bank is ready to begin lowering interest rates again.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $36.00 to US$3,417.60 per ounce, sticking within the narrow range it has mostly traded within since April.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute noted investors have read in a lowering of U.S. interest rates after Powell’s speech.
On implications for investors, and of note for those who invest across North America, WFII said: “We believe that surprises, either from policy or from economic data, could trigger episodic periods of volatility, especially as the economy slows.
It added: “We favor extending tactical positioning in areas that we believe should balance opportunity against short-term volatility risk.”
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks surged, reversing a week of losses and sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record, and bond yields fell as surprisingly dovish comments by Jerome Powell convinced investors that rate cuts are all but guaranteed.
By shifting focus toward risks in the jobs market, the Federal Reserve chief signaled it may not wait for perfect inflation before slashing rates.
That was enough to trigger a broad rally that drove the S&P 500 up the most since May as investors piled into shares that tend to do well amid lower borrowing costs.
All tech mega caps gained, a measure of small firms jumped 4% and banks hit all- time highs.
The crypto world roared.
As traders boosted wagers on a September Fed move, treasuries climbed across the curve, with two-year yields sinking 10 basis points.
A dollar gauge slid about 1%.
“The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance,” Powell said Friday.
“Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, his speech was much more dovish than the market feared.
“Powell has thrown the door wide open to a September cut with his Jackson Hole speech that sends a clear, strong signal the Fed is on track to reduce rates by 25 basis points at that meeting,” he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* President Donald Trump said Intel Corp. had agreed to give the US government a 10% equity stake in the beleaguered chipmaker, with a formal announcement expected on Friday, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Apple Inc. is in early discussions about using Google Gemini to power a revamped version of the Siri voice assistant, marking a key potential step toward outsourcing more of its artificial intelligence technology.
* Nvidia Corp. has instructed component suppliers including Samsung Electronics Co. and Amkor Technology Inc. to stop production related to the H20 AI chip, the Information reported, citing unidentified sources.
* Meta Platforms Inc. has agreed to a deal worth at least $10 billion with Alphabet Inc.’s Google for cloud computing services, according to people familiar with the matter, part of the social media giant’s spending spree on artificial intelligence.
** Meta is hiring another key Apple AI executive, even as the social networking company prepares to slow its recruitment, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Boeing Co. and union leaders representing striking workers at its St. Louis-area defense factories will hold their first formal talks next week as they aim to end a three-week long impasse.
* Visa Inc. shut its open-banking business in the US amid regulatory uncertainty about consumer-data rights and the prospect of higher fees for customer information, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Discount-retailer Ross Stores Inc. projected inflation will push more consumers to seek its off-price wares and deliver sales growth above expectations.
* Cenovus Energy Inc. agreed to buy MEG Energy Corp. for C$6.93 billion ($5 billion), topping a rival offer from Strathcona Resources Ltd. in a bid to boost its position among Canada’s largest oil producers.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.9%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 3.9%
* KBW Bank Index rose 3.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8%
* The euro rose 1% to $1.1720
* The British pound rose 0.8% to $1.3518
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 146.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.8% to $116,657.37
* Ether rose 14% to $4,835.1
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.26%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.69%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined 10 basis points to 3.69%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.88%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $63.82 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,372.48 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The secret of getting ahead is getting started. —Mark Twain, 1935-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com