August 21th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

August 21, 1959: Hawaii becomes the 50^th state of the United States, expanding the nation into the Pacific.
August 21, 1991: A hardline coup against Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev collapsed in the face of a popular uprising led by Russian federation President Boris Yeltsin. Go to article

1983: Benigno Aquino, assassinated.

Aubrey Beardsley, artist, b. 1872
Count Basie, bandleader, b.1904.
Wilt Chamberlain, basketball player, b.1936.

The second and final ‘blood moon’ total lunar eclipse of 2025 is coming on the night of Sept. 7-8. Here’s where the celestial spectacle will be visible — and how to watch it if
you’re not in the path. Read More.

More than 6,000 years ago, invaders were captured in northeastern France before being tortured and mutilated. Read More.

Chinese astronomers have spotted a hidden supermassive black hole in the background of a peculiar gravitational wave event from a black hole merger, hinting that all three singularities were locked in a never-before-seen triple system. Read More.

Japanese researchers employed machine learning to develop a wireless power transfer system that remains stable under any load. Read More.

Ari Shapiro is leaving NPR
What does the popular “All Things Considered” host plan to do next? He’s going on tour.

‘Dawson’s Creek’ cast to reunite
The event will support F Cancer and the hit TV show’s star, James Van Der Beek, who was diagnosed with colorectal cancer last November.

McDonald’s is cutting prices
The move comes just a few weeks after the CEO admitted that the company’s combo menu offerings had gotten too expensive.

Quentin Tarantino reveals which movie is his best
It’s probably not the one you’d expect.

9:  That’s how many home runs the New York Yankees hit during their 13-3 win over the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday. This makes the Bronx Bombers the first franchise in Major League Baseball history to record two games with nine homers in the same season or otherwise.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bhaktapur, Nepal
Newar Buddhist devotees worship Dipankara Buddha during the Panchadaan festival. Known as the festival of five summer gifts, Panchadaan is a sacred ritual in which devotees honour Dipankara Buddha and offer five traditional alms in monastic courtyards and community squares
Photograph: Safal Prakash Shrestha/Zuma Press/Shutterstock

Lagoon Nebula, Sagittarius
An image composed by the integration of four hours of photographic exposures shows Messier 8, also known as the Lagoon Nebula, taken from La Hayuela, Cantabria, Spain. Messier 8 is a giant emission nebula located in the constellation Sagittarius, 5,000 light years away
Photograph: Pedro Puente Hoyos/EPA

Alexandria, Egypt
A crane pulls an artefact from the water in Abu Qir Bay as part of work to recover sunken antiquities
Photograph: Khaled Desouki/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for Aug 21^th,2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Natural gas is better distributed than any other fuel in the United States.  It’s down every street and up every alley. -Thomas Boone Pickens, 1928-2019.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.6%, or 176.67 to 28,055.43 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.3% on Aug. 6.
Barrick Mining Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.0%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 10.4%.
Today, 160 of 211 shares rose, while 48 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.9%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.5%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0% below its 52-week high on Aug. 13, 2025 and 26.2% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.48t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.73% compared with 9.64% in the previous session and the average of 8.30% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 84.2136| 2.1| 47/1
Energy | 42.2823| 1.0| 35/5
Financials | 23.6213| 0.3| 18/6
Information Technology | 8.8621| 0.3| 7/3
Industrials | 7.7956| 0.2| 20/9
Consumer Discretionary | 5.6311| 0.6| 6/3
Utilities | 3.0029| 0.3| 9/4
Communication Services | 2.9543| 0.4| 5/0
Health Care | -0.2168| -0.3| 0/2
Consumer Staples | -0.7061| -0.1| 5/4
Real Estate | -0.7500| -0.1| 8/11
Barrick Mining | 12.4000| 3.0| 159.4| 59.3
Canadian Natural | Resources | 12.3200| 2.0| 182.8| -5.5
Constellation | Software | 10.7100| 1.8| 5.7| -0.2
TC Energy | -2.4010| -0.5| 11.4| 6.9
Shopify | -2.8140| -0.2| -34.0| 24.3
Canadian Pacific | Kansas | -8.0090| -1.2| -7.2| -2.1
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange ran up to a fresh record high Thursday, buoyed by news that Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump had a “productive and wide-ranging conversation”, according to a readout from the PM’s Office.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 176.67 points, or 0.6%, to 28,055.43, beating the prior record close of 27,993.43 struck on August 13.
Most sectors were higher, led by Energy, up near 1.7%, and Base Metals, up 1.5%.
Health Care was down near 0.4%.
Among individual stocks, Air Canada (AC.TO) said late afternoon it continues to ramp up its operations after a spat with a related union and the company expects to deliver close to its full network schedule by Friday, August 22.
Its shares closed up $0.24 to $19.35.
In relation to Carney and Trump talks, the pair reportedly discussed trade and “a new economic and security relationship.”
They also discussed “long-term peace” in Ukraine and Europe and agreed to talk again soon.
The talks come as Trump has introduced 35% duties on Canadian imports, even if most goods are protected under an existing free trade deal between the two nations.
Canada is also subject to tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper and automobiles.
But it has also introduced retaliatory tariffs of its own on U.S. imports.
Of commodities, gold futures edged lower late afternoon Thursday as treasury yields and the dollar rose today on further weak economic data, firming expectations the Federal Reserve will move to cut interest rates next month, though traders are awaiting a Friday speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for clearer signals on the central bank’s intentions.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $5.20 to US$3,383.30 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate oil closed higher for a second day following a day-prior report showing a larger than expected drop in U.S. inventories as summer demand continues to run hot, while fading hopes for a ceasefire in Russia’s war on Ukraine that would see sanctions on Russian exports eased also offered support.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $0.81 to settle at US$63.52 per barrel, while October Brent crude was last seen up $0.94 to US$67.78.
On commodities and broader stock markets, Rosenberg Research published a note entitled ‘Market Implications from a Slumping U.S.
Dollar’ in which it said a secular dollar bear market will have global implications across asset classes.
Among highlights, the research noted the trade-weighted U.S. dollar index has “recently broken below long-term support trendlines”, with “risk of morphing from a cyclical correction to a secular bear market”.
The research sees commodities, which are priced in U.S. dollars, as one area with significant negative correlations that stands to profit.
It noted the overall CRB index, a commodity index calculated based on the prices of commodity futures, “commands a strong negative correlation” between asset class and the trade weighted dollar index of -0.70, broadly based across underlying components such as copper (-0.64; base metals more broadly), silver (-0.60), WTI crude (-0.59), and gold (-0.50).
Of interest to those who invest across North America, at the U.S. equity sector level, Rosenberg Research shifted its methodology slightly to isolate relative outperformance to the benchmark (S&P 500) as opposed to just gross performance.
It said Materials (-0.44) is “by far the biggest beneficiary” in this regard thanks to underlying commodity prices, followed by Industrials (-0.27), Technology (-0.16; a function of large international revenues), and Energy (-0.12) to a lesser extent.
“Energy presents an interesting result, showing a smaller correlation to the dollar than we would expect, though results are likely influenced by the post-Russia/Ukraine war dislocations in global energy markets,” the research added.
Also of interest, the research noted that Brazil (commodity-centric) at -0.45 and Sweden (heavily weighted towards Industrials at 40%) at -0.41 topped a list of nations that have experienced the most consistent excess returns against the MSCI ACWI ex. U.S. index when the dollar has been declining.
Canada was 10th on the list at -0.24.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Caution prevailed on Wall Street ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech, with stocks falling and bond yields rising as a key factory report raised concern that inflation pressures could dim the outlook for rate cuts.
The fastest growth in manufacturing since 2022 drove Treasuries lower, with 10-year yields up four basis points to 4.33%.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland chief Beth Hammack said she wouldn’t support easing if officials had to decide tomorrow.
The S&P 500 slipped for a fifth straight day, its longest slide since January.
Most big techs slid.
Walmart Inc. sank 4.5% on a profit miss.
While data showed an increase in jobless claims — adding to signs of a slowing labor market — the solid factory purchasing managers index made traders trim their bets on rate cuts.
Money markets saw a roughly 70% chance of a reduction in September.
A week ago, the odds were above 90%.
“The Fed is being put in a tough spot, with pressures to cut interest rates as inflation rises and the labor market decelerates — with both of those metrics moving in the opposite direction from the Fed’s dual mandate,” said Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro.
Central bankers and economists from around the world are gathering for the Fed’s economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The prestigious event in the Grand Teton mountains has been used as a venue for making key policy announcements.
Powell is due to speak Friday at 10 a.m. New York time.
Meantime, the Justice Department signaled possible plans to investigate Fed Governor Lisa Cook, with a top official encouraging Powell to remove her from the board.
President Donald Trump’s housing-finance chief, Bill Pulte, has called for a probe over mortgage agreements she allegedly made in 2021.
“The great PMI numbers have made it more difficult for Powell to pivot to employment weakness for tomorrow,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
The Fed chair’s annual speech in Jackson Hole can be an opportunity to flag policy shifts.
Trouble is that the key economic indicators aren’t all pointing that way.
With more economic numbers due before then, the Fed chief may prefer to keep his messaging carefully hedged.
“Key to the Jackson Hole symposium will be whether Fed Chair Powell updates his monetary policy reaction function,” said Calvin Tse at BNP Paribas.
“In our base case, Powell sticks to his reaction function laid out in July.
We think this would surprise markets hawkishly.”
Other Fed officials speaking Wednesday and Thursday struck a similarly hawkish tone as Cleveland’s Hammack.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he still sees just one rate cut this year as appropriate.
Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed, said inflation risk still outweighs risks to the labor market.
Those comments echoed minutes of the central bank’s latest policy meeting in July, which showed most officials held the same view.
“We knew that the upcoming speech by Jerome Powell on Friday would leave the market cautious,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
“Fed meeting notes released yesterday revealed a higher concern over tariff-driven inflation risks, and the betting on Fed cuts continues to soften.”
“While we may see a market pullback if Powell throws cold water on the idea of a September rate cut, we believe rate cuts are on the horizon at some point in the next 12 months,” said Rick Gardner at RGA Investments.
While investors are focused on Jackson Hole, Gardner says he’d argue that the August jobs report, released in early September, will actually be more important for the Fed’s rate cut decision.
“It’s the last jobs report before the September meeting and the headline number and any revisions to the prior months will be scrutinized by central banks and investors alike,” he said.
In both messaging and execution, the Fed will need to tread carefully, according to Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
Labor-market conditions may not be weak, but they are weakening, he noted.
Coupled with sticky inflation that’s expected to edge higher in the near term, the growing risk of a potentially “stagflationary” outlook will create a challenge for policymakers, Baird said.
“Cut too early or too aggressively, and the Fed risks pushing inflation expectations even higher,” he added.
“Move too slowly, and the potential for labor conditions to further deteriorate and the economy to stall increases.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that 43% of investors believe that the market reaction to Jackson Hole will be “neutral”, 39% said “risk-off” and only 18% “risk-on.”
The tally also showed that compared to six months ago, 75% of investors believe that artificial-intelligence valuations are richer and 23% believe they are about the same.
Only 2% believe they are cheaper.
Value is the favorite factor into year end, followed by growth and risk-off.
“Investor’s favorite themes into the end of the year are interest rate sensitivities, AI power, and value,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V.
“The biggest market risks are too high inflation, less rate cuts, and overbought conditions.”
Growth and momentum factors that were very positive in helping drive tech and the broader US stock market higher over recent months are now going through a bit of a healthy reset, which is natural, according to Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“Nevertheless, if these investors jitters continue into Nvidia’s report next week, we would expect a larger market reaction (up or down) based on how investors interpret the company’s results and outlook,” he said.
A slew of Wall Street analysts covering Nvidia Corp. are boosting their expectations for the chipmaker’s stock ahead of its quarterly earnings release due Aug. 27.
Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services says the weight of the evidence indicates that the recent setback in the tech sector is a necessary reset within a still-constructive long- term trend.
“The sector’s ‘rubber band’ was stretched after its sharpest four-month rebound since 2000, making it more vulnerable to negative headlines,” Lerner noted.
“That said, tech’s trailing one-year return is not at an extreme.”
The main risk to monitor is a deterioration in earnings momentum — however, profit trends remain strong for now, he said.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk says sharp losses in high-flying momentum stocks may present a dip-buying opportunity.
When the firm’s long-short momentum basket dropped 10% or more over a five-day span in the past, it proceeded to rise in the following week 80% of the time, the traders wrote.
The median return was 4.5% in the next week and more than 11% in the next month.
“I do not like August since there are ‘air pockets’,” said rotation, which is unfortunate because the earnings environment has been stunning.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Walmart Inc.’s profit missed expectations for the first time in three years, overshadowing higher sales.
** The world’s largest retailer cited a rise in insurance claims, legal charges and restructuring costs as factors weighing down its profit.
** Despite the rare profit miss, Walmart raised its full-year sales guidance.
* Boeing Co. is heading closer toward finalizing a deal with China to sell as many as 500 aircraft, according to people familiar with the matter, a transaction that would end a sales drought that stretches back to US President Donald Trump’s last visit in 2017.
* US auto safety regulators are looking into delays by Tesla Inc. in reporting details of crashes involving driver-assistance technology.
* Apple Inc. raised the monthly subscription price of its TV+ streaming platform by 30% to $13, part of a push to generate more revenue from services.
* Google’s Pixel 10 marks the phone’s 10th generation — nine years after the first model — but you’d be hard-pressed to tell it’s a milestone release.
* The slide in Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc.’s shares deepened as a conservative backlash to the restaurant chain’s logo change intensified across social media.
* Coty Inc. forecast steep sales declines will continue as retailers clear out existing inventory and consumer demand remains tepid in the face of an uncertain economic outlook.
* Gilead Sciences Inc. slipped after CVS Health Corp said it hasn’t yet added its new HIV prevention shot to its commercial drug plans.
* International Paper Co. said it will sell its global cellulose fibers business for $1.5 billion as part of its strategy to focus on sustainable packaging solutions.
* Rent the Runway Inc. will hand over a controlling stake in the company as part of a plan to cut debt and grow, after residual effects of the Covid-19 pandemic pushed the firm to the brink of bankruptcy.
* Thoma Bravo has agreed to buy human resources software provider Dayforce Inc. in what is set to become one of the investment firm’s largest-ever deals.
* Crusoe Energy Systems, a critical infrastructure provider of the artificial intelligence boom, plans to raise new funding at a valuation near $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter — a deal that would highlight the massive resources required to power AI systems.
* The New York Stock Exchange has already convinced a significant chunk of Texas public companies to dual list their shares on its new outpost in their home state, shoring up its competitive position ahead of next year’s planned launch of the rival Texas Stock Exchange.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The mix of more jobless claims and flat hiring points to a softening jobs backdrop, which will require a big tradeoff from the Fed in light of rising inflationary pressures.”
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1605
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3413
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 148.38 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.9% to $112,159.81
* Ether fell 3.1% to $4,223.06
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.33%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.76%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.73%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 3.79%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.92%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $63.41 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,339.12 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Success is not the result of spontaneous combustion. You must set yourself on fire. — Arnold H. Glasow, 1905-1998.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com