August 15, 2025 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
August 15, 1947: India gains independence form Britain, with Jawaharlal Nehru becoming its first Prime Minister.  On Aug. 15, 1947, India and Pakistan became independent after some 200 years of British rule.  Go to article

Archaeology student finds rare ninth-century gold ‘within the first 90 minutes’ of her first excavation

An archaeologist in training discovered a rare medieval gold object in northwestern England during her first excavation. Read More.

DNA has an expiration date. But proteins are revealing secrets about our ancient ancestors we never thought possible.

Analysis of ancient proteins may fill in the gaps of human evolution left by the decomposition of DNA. Read More.

Spotify-like AI helps discover never-before-seen supernova as greedy star attempts to eat a black hole
​​​​​​With help from AI, astronomers have spotted a never-before-seen kind of supernova that seems to have been blowing up just as it was trying to gobble down a black hole.

‘Frankenstein bunnies’ spotted in Colorado
A group of rabbits has contracted a virus that makes grotesque, hornlike growths protrude from their faces.

Useful Apple Watch feature returns
The tech giant was forced to remove a tool after a patent dispute.

YouTube will start using AI to guess your age
If it’s wrong, you’ll have to prove it.

Jerry Jones goes public about decade-long fight with cancer
The Dallas Cowboys owner credits an experimental trial drug for successfully treating his advanced melanoma.

‘And Just Like That’ comes to an end
Here are some of the show’s most orgasmic highs — and dismal lows.

Napoleaon Bonaparte, French Emperor, b. 1769.
Sir Walter Scott, poet, b.1771.
Julia Child, chef, b. 1912.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Shincliffe, UK
People enjoy the sunflower trail at East Grange farm in County Durham
Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Sydney, Australia
A Boeing 737 flies past storm clouds as it prepares to land at an airport
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Egrets fly among the blooming lotus flowers in Hongze Lake wetland in Sihong county, China
Photograph: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Market Closes for Aug 15^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
All wars are the results of undefended wealth. -Douglas MacArthur, 1880-1964.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 27,905.49 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.9%.
Bird Construction Inc. had the largest drop, falling 3.7%.
Today, 86 of 211 shares fell, while 121 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 0.5%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.6% below its 52-week high on Aug. 13, 2025 and 25.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.49t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 9.70% compared with 9.69% in the previous session and the average of 7.68% over the past month
Index Points
Energy | -28.5531| -0.6| 12/26
Information Technology | -18.1374| -0.6| 7/3
Financials | -11.2030| -0.1| 12/12
Consumer Discretionary | -2.6743| -0.3| 6/3
Real Estate | -0.1180| 0.0| 11/7
Utilities | 2.0536| 0.2| 9/5
Health Care | 2.6448| 3.8| 2/1
Industrials | 3.6075| 0.1| 12/16
Consumer Staples | 5.7614| 0.6| 7/3
Communication Services | 6.0182| 0.9| 5/0
Materials | 30.0966| 0.8| 38/10
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for a second-straight day Friday on weaker commodity prices and as Rosenberg Research sees signs of a “likely move into a confirmed downtrend next week.”
Not helped by lower commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index was down a modest 10.5 points to 27,905,49.
This comes after the TSX on Thursday fell for the first time in four sessions, including two record closes.
Among sectors, most were higher, led by Health Care, up 4%.
None were down by more than 1%.
In terms of the outlook for equities, including those on the TSX, this week’s issue of ‘Technicals with Dave’ from Rosenberg Research focuses on global markets.
In July’s comment, Rosenberg noted that since April’s low, the TSX index recorded 12-straight weeks with both a higher high and higher low than the preceding week.
“Not surprisingly, that pace has moderated a bit, but only slightly,” the research said.
“Through the end of last week, 16 of the last 17 weeks met that standard, and the exception did post a higher high (but also a lower low). How good is that? As this is written (August 13th), this week is on pace for another higher high and higher low.”
However, Rosenberg Research noted, the weekly Coppock Curve, a momentum indicator for identifying long-term buying opportunities in stocks or indices, has peaked and will likely move into a confirmed downtrend next week. It said:
“Those pressures are currently expected to persist well into November, but the indicator is not anticipated to fall below its neutral zero line. Similarly, the weekly Coppock already has a bearish bias for most of the index’s 11 sectors; these majority pressures will likely continue into October.”
According to Rosenberg Research, with those pending momentum pressures in mind, a Fibonacci 38.2%-61.8% retracement of the post-April uptrend would not be a surprise. Based on the gains to date, it said, such a retracement allows for a challenge of 25,781-24,424.
“The probable strength of that range, together with the Coppock Curve’s ability to hold its zero line anytime, would be the setup for a well-contained correction within an uptrend,” it added.
Rosenberg Research suggested last month a rally through 27,800 would be the trigger for a decisive breakout.
“That has occurred, so we need to keep the next Fibonacci objective of 28,915 in mind,” it said.
The research added: “Although the downtrend line displayed on the nearby TSX/S&P 500 relative strength index is drawn from 2023 to present, it has its origins in 2016. The relative index itself has been in a downtrend since 2009. So, we want to keep an eye on both the trendline (currently at 4.47) and the year-to-date high at 4.66 as important resistance areas. A breakout would be a potentially significant bullish relative strength development.”
Of commodities, gold was steady late afternoon on Friday as the dollar weakened after a day-prior report showed U.S. wholesale inflation surged last month, failing to dent expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $0.30 to US$3,383.50 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to a 10-week low ahead of a summit meeting between the U.S. and Russia, while China released weak economic data.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed down $1.16 to US$62.80 per barrel, the lowest since June 2, while October Brent oil was last seen down $0.88 to US$65.96.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders sent stocks down from all-time highs as data showed mixed indications on how American consumers are feeling about the economy.
Investors also kept a close eye on a face-to-face meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
Following a surge from its April lows, the S&P 500 fell.
Applied Materials Inc. led losses in chipmakers on a disappointing outlook.
UnitedHealth Group Inc. soared as prominent funds piled into the insurer.
Solar shares rallied.
Longer-dated Treasuries underperformed.
The dollar and oil retreated.
Trump greeted his Russian counterpart with a handshake in Alaska as they kicked off a highly anticipated summit, with the US leader looking to secure an end to the war in Ukraine.
A joint press conference was planned for after their meeting.
“While we cannot predict the outcome of the Alaska summit, we are on watch for potential disruptors as the trading environment, in our opinion, remains very sensitive to headline risk,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
Before that, economic data showed a broad-based advance in US retail sales, boosted by car sales and major online promotions.
Later, a separate report showed consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell for the first time since April and inflation expectations rose.
“Consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April,” said Peter Boockvar, author of The Boock Report.
“However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future.”
To Bill Adams at Comerica Bank, while the data don’t all point in the same direction, the US economy looks to be in OK shape.
“What consumers do is more important to the economy than what they say,” he said.
At eToro, Bret Kenwell says July’s retail sales figures weren’t necessarily a blowout.
However, control group sales — which are used in the gross domestic product calculation — topped economists’ expectations, while June’s already strong report was revised even higher.
Retailers will start reporting earnings next week, which should provide more insights into consumer behavior, he noted.
As long as consumer spending holds up and companies are able to retain workers because of that robust spending, the flywheel can continue to spin, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
And that would push both corporate profits and stocks higher, he said.
“While the consumer appears relatively healthy, the Fed is in a tough spot with its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices,” said Kenwell at eToro.
“If they opt to cut rates as the market currently expects, that could be another benefit for consumers.”
Attention will soon turn to next week’s central bank gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, with traders getting ready for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.
Markets are still wholly convinced that officials will cut rates by 25 basis points in September — and follow that up with at least one other cut in October or December, noted Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics.
He says Powell will possibly caution that a modestly restrictive policy stance remains appropriate.
At Bank of America Corp., strategists led by Michael Hartnett say US stocks are set to decline in the event of dovish signals from the Fed in Jackson Hole as investors “buy rumor, sell fact.”
Investors poured about $21 billion into US equity funds in the week through Aug. 13, after redeeming nearly $28 billion in the week prior, according to a BofA note citing EPFR Global data.
Retail investors are increasingly validated in the buy-the- dip approach, given the speed of the recovery from the recent selloff, potentially creating a self-fulfilling prophecy the next time the market experiences a minor selloff, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Despite this well-established trend, there are few signs of excess or complacency, as many investors remain skeptical of the rally despite the market returning double-digits to date this year,” he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* The Trump administration is considering using funds from the US Chips Act to take a stake in Intel Corp., according to people familiar with the discussions, part of efforts to rescue the embattled chipmaker and shore up domestic semiconductor manufacturing
* Clean energy stocks soared after the Trump administration released new guidance on eligibility requirements for tax credits that weren’t as punitive as the industry had feared.
* Opendoor Technologies Inc., a real estate company that became a meme stock in recent months, said Chief Executive Officer Carrie Wheeler is stepping down immediately, an announcement that sent the stock surging.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. jumped after funds piled into the company, which has been hampered by a federal probe into its business practices and weakening results.
** Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. was among the investors, buying 5 million shares in the second quarter, according to a filing. David Tepper’s Appaloosa Management LP also invested, boosting its holdings of the health insurance giant by 2.3 million shares.
* Gilead Sciences Inc. Chief Executive Officer Daniel O’Day said the company’s new HIV prevention drug Yeztugo should be able to gain favorable insurance coverage despite questions about how the Trump administration will handle recommendations for treatments like this.
* Swiss chocolatier Lindt & Spruengli AG may shift production of its world-famous, gold-wrapped Easter bunnies to the US to sidestep import tariffs.
* Danish jewelry company Pandora A/S is weighing potential price increases in the US and elsewhere due to higher tariffs, according to its chief executive officer.

Some of the moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.3%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 2.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1701
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3555
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 147.23 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $116,986.8
* Ether fell 3.4% to $4,384.76
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.32%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.79%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.70%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.75%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.92%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.3% to $63.12 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.1% to $3,339.15 an ounce

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. –Napoleon Bonaparte, 1769-1821.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com