August 14th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  La Torta dei Fieschi, Italy.

August 14, 1935: The Social Security Act is signed into law in the United States, creating the modern welfare system.
On Aug. 14, 1945, President Truman announced that Japan had surrendered unconditionally, ending World War II. Go to article.
August 14^th, 1993: The Yankees retire Reggie Jackson’s number 44.

Steve Martin, comedian, b. 1945.
Magic Johnson, basketball player, b. 1949.
Halle Berry, actress, b. 1968

The new proof-of-concept study points a way to curing diabetes without the need for immune-suppressing drugs. Read More.

Reports of blue whales going silent off California don’t reflect the findings of a recent study. Read More.

Violent black hole collisions may create black hole ‘morsels’ no larger than an asteroid — and these bizarre objects could pave the way to unlocking new physics, a study claims. Read More

A recent study that confirmed that aluminium in vaccines doesn’t pose a risk to children has sparked a war of words between the RFK, Jr. and a U.S. medical journal. Read More.

Trump predicts Jimmy Kimmel’s cancellation
If that does happen, the late-night host has a backup plan.

Yes, the ‘Alien’ timeline is confusing
Before you dig into the franchise’s first TV series, here’s some clarity.

Taco Bell expands cult-favorite drinks menu
The fast-food chain’s Mountain Dew Baja Blast is getting its first permanent new flavor in two decades. Will you try it?

Did you catch Taylor Swift on the ‘New Heights’ podcast?
The Grammy-winning singer announced the release date for her 12th album. Then, she got candid about the battle for her early master recordings, her favorite hobbies and her relationship with NFL superstar Travis Kelce. Get all the details here.

“The election of 2026 is going to be decided in the summer of 2025.” — Texas Democrat Beto O’Rourke, on why he is raising funds for Democratic members of the state legislature who left Texas to prevent Republicans from passing a new US House map that could help the GOP flip as many as five seats next year.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Surf’s up at the 2025 Tahiti Pro
Kauli Vaast of France surfs in heat one of round 16.
Photograph: Brent Bielmann/World Surf League

Bangkok, Thailand
People interact with an animatronic brachiosaurus at an immersive experience inspired by the film Jurassic World
Photograph: Chalinee Thirasupa/Reuters

​​​​​​​Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
A visitor tries on a virtual-reality headset during Rio Innovation Week
Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock
Market Closes for Aug 14^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
A strategy is something you can touch; you can motivate people with; be number one and number two in every business. – John Francis Welch Jr. “Jack”, 1935-2020.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 27,915.99 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.5%.
Bird Construction Inc. had the largest drop, falling 15.4%.
Today, 104 of 211 shares fell, while 104 rose; 4 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 0.6%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on Aug. 13, 2025 and 25.6% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 2.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 on a trailing basis and 17.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.5t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.69% compared with 9.73% in the previous session and the average of 7.50% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology| -109.1395| -3.6| 1/9
Industrials | -38.8551| -1.1| 4/24
Materials | -8.2132| -0.2| 15/33
Consumer Staples | -3.2263| -0.3| 4/6
Health Care | 1.2947| 1.9| 3/0
Real Estate | 1.3485| 0.3| 14/5
Utilities | 2.2217| 0.2| 10/4
Consumer Discretionary| 4.1344| 0.4| 5/4
Communication Services| 5.7031| 0.9| 5/0
Energy | 29.8176| 0.7| 28/11
Financials | 37.4660| 0.4| 15/8
Shopify | -62.4100| -3.5| 6.4| 30.4
Constellation | Software | -34.6100| -5.6| 168.6| -4.2
Canadian Pacific | Kansas | -13.9300| -2.1| 8.9| -2.0
Equinox Gold | 7.1990| 15.1| 311.6| 49.2
Enbridge | 13.8900| 1.4| -42.0| 9.1
RBC | 15.6400| 0.8| -28.4| 8.8
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange paused its record run on Thursday, falling for the first time in four sessions, including two record highs, on some profit taking and ahead of tomorrow’s release of market-sensitive economic numbers, including factory data, elements of which were inadvertently published today.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 77.44 points to 27,915.99, even with most sectors up.
Healthcare was up near 2.2%.
The biggest decliners were Info Tech, down 3.1%, and Industrials, down 1.1%.
Among individual stocks, Air Canada (AC.TO) closed unchanged even as Canada’s CTV News reported airline management abruptly ended a press conference Thursday after a lineup of members of the Canadian Union of Public Employees, which represents the airlines flight attendants, entered the room and held signs reading “unpaid work won’t fly” and “UnfAir Canada,” among other statements.
The flight attendants are pressing for an end to unpaid work demanded by the airline and raises to their pay.
Before the news conference ended, CTV News said, Air Canada revealed details on its plans to ground all flights by Saturday if a deal with the union cannot be reached.
Some long-haul flights due to depart tonight have already been cancelled.
Air Canada plans to cancel 500 trips Friday in a step towards a total stoppage Saturday morning.
The disruption would impact about 130,000 customers per day, including several thousand Canadian travelers who are at risk of being stranded abroad, Air Canada executives said.
On the economics front, at a time when economic data is eagerly awaited ahead of its release, and then dissected afterwards, the lead up to Friday’s release of manufacturing and wholesale figures for June, and also existing home sales for July, took an interesting turn today.
Reuters is reported Statistics Canada posted market-sensitive information about June manufacturing data on its website, a day ahead of the scheduled release date.
When Reuters asked why the data was visible, the agency took down the page immediately, indicating an error had occurred.
“Statistics Canada takes this incident very seriously. We are conducting a thorough review and will determine whether additional safeguards are required to prevent a recurrence,” said agency spokeswoman Maryse Carriere.
Carriere said the agency is proceeding with plans to release the data on August 15 at 8:30 a.m.
The manufacturing data, in particular, is likely to be closely watched Friday for clues on what impact the brewing trade war between Canada and the United States is having on that sector of the economy.
Of commodities, gold traded lower midafternoon on Thursday as the dollar and yields rose following a report that showed U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly surged in July.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $23.70 to US$3,384.60 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate closed higher, rising up from a 10-week low, a day ahead of a summit between the U.S. and Russia and a day after the latest warning the market is becoming over supplied.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $1.31 to settle at US$63.96 per barrel, rising off the lowest since June 2.
October Brent oil was last seen up $1.08 to US$66.71.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The blistering run in stocks hit a wall as a pick-up in inflation lifted bond yields alongside the dollar, with traders paring bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.
Following a roughly 30% surge from its April lows, the S&P 500 barely budged.
While the index’s move was mild due to gains in most big techs, over 350 of its shares fell.
Intel Corp. jumped as the Trump Administration was said to discuss the US taking a stake in the chipmaker.
Two-year yields climbed six basis points to 3.73%.
While money markets still see at least a half point of Fed easing in 2025, swaps no longer fully price in a quarter-point cut in September.
The dollar rose against all developed-world peers.
US wholesale inflation accelerated in July by the most in three years, suggesting companies are passing along higher import costs related to tariffs.
The producer price index increased 0.9% from a month earlier and 3.3% from a year ago.
Services costs jumped 1.1% last month.
With consumer price data earlier this week pointing to a milder pass-through in July, and the labor market now shifting to a lower gear, the Fed is widely expected to cut rates next month.
However, firm wholesale inflation data may give some officials pause that prices are rearing back up.
To Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, the spike in PPI shows inflation is coursing through the economy, even if it hasn’t been felt by consumers yet.
“Given how benign the CPI numbers were on Tuesday, this is a most unwelcome surprise to the upside,” he said.
“The fact that PPI was stronger-than-expected and CPI has been relatively soft suggests that businesses are eating much of the tariff costs instead of passing them onto the consumer,” said Clark Geranen at CalBay Investments.
With input costs rising, this could impact earnings for companies in the third and fourth quarters, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
Yet, the downside was limited, suggesting that investors are not too concerned just yet.
“It is likely that the Fed will see through the rise as the one-time increase and their concerns about the jobs market may make them more open to the idea of resuming rate cuts from September,” he said.
The jump in PPI reflects lingering cost pressures — some driven by tariffs — but core inflation trends remain contained, according to Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
“It’s a reminder that the path to lower rates may not be linear, but the broader disinflationary trend is still intact,” she said.
“This is not a signal to panic. It’s a time to focus on fundamentals, maintain diversification, and look for companies with strong pricing power and healthy margins.”
“This doesn’t slam the door on a September rate cut, but based on the market’s initial reaction, the opening may be a little smaller than it was a couple of days ago,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
If anything, the data poured cold water on 50 basis-point rate cut expectations and offered fodder to the hawks who are skeptical of the prudence of a 25 basis-point rate cut at next month’s Fed meeting, according to Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group says the Fed is more likely to give us a “hawkish” cut than a “dovish” cut in September, assuming no radical changes in the direction of data or markets until then.
The more concerning aspect is that the full impact of tariffs is expected to materialize in next month’s data, according to Eugenio Aleman at Raymond James.
“This complicates the Fed’s September decision, where a 25bps cut remains likely, but a 50bps move is most likely off the table,” he said.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he isn’t calling for a series of rate cuts from the Fed, just pointing out that models suggest a “neutral” rate would be about 1.5 percentage points lower.
“I didn’t tell the Fed what to do,” Bessent told Fox Business, referring to his comments a day before about how the central bank “could go into a series of rate cuts here.”
Meantime, Fed Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem told CNBC said it’s too early for him to decide on whether to lower interest rates at next month’s meeting.
And His Richmond counterpart Tom Barkin said he sees signs that the environment for US consumers improved in July after weakness earlier in the year.
From here, analysts and investors are getting ready to scour Friday’s retail sales report and a key gauge of consumer sentiment for clues on how US households are feeling about the economy.

Corporate Highlights:
* Cisco Systems Inc. gave a cautious forecast for the current fiscal year, even as sales from artificial intelligence projects begin to pick up.
* Apple Inc. is restoring the blood oxygen tracking feature on its smartwatch in the US following a years-long legal fight.
* Deere & Co., the world’s biggest farm machinery maker, pared its annual earnings outlook with lower grain prices curbing growers’ spending.
* Peloton Interactive Inc. is planning its biggest product upgrades in years, a bid to rejuvenate sales with refreshed hardware, new accessories and artificial intelligence.
* Eli Lilly & Co. is raising the list price for its obesity shot in the UK by as much as 170%, as the pharma industry comes under pressure from US President Donald Trump to increase medicine prices in Europe and lower them for Americans.
* JD.com Inc.’s revenue grew a faster-than-anticipated 22%, benefiting from government-directed consumer subsidies as well as an aggressive but costly drive into new arenas such as meal delivery.
* Costco Wholesale Corp. has decided not to dispense the abortion pill mifepristone at its more than 500 pharmacy locations, a decision hailed by a group of faith-based activists who urged the retailer to avoid selling the drug.
* Southwest Airlines Co. sold a renewable fuels unit to Conestoga Energy as the carrier scales back its climate-focused initiatives following years of little progress by the industry.
* Rogers Communications Inc. will sell a portfolio of nine data centers to infrastructure asset manager InfraRed Capital Partners to help pay down debt.
* Tapestry Inc. has been one of the stars of the retail world, but a mix of tariff costs and weakness at its Kate Spade brand sent investors fleeing on Thursday.
* Carlsberg A/S reported a drop in volumes and warned consumers were continuing to pull back on spending.
* Klarna Group Plc had to set aside more money for potentially souring loans in the second quarter, a move that put pressure on results ahead of its expected public debut.
* Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. expects sales of servers to more than double this quarter while its consumer electronics business dwindles, underscoring how it’s relying on the AI boom to offset volatile iPhone sales.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1649
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3537
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 147.76 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 4.1% to $117,951.03
* Ether fell 3.9% to $4,535.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.29%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.64%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 3.73%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.87%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.2% to $64.04 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,338.48 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
The one law that does not change is that everything changes, and the hardship I was bearing today was only a breath away from the pleasures I would have tomorrow, and those pleasures would be all the richer because of the memories of this I was enduring. –Louis L’Amour, 1908-1988.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com