August 11th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
August 11, 1973: Hip hop is born at a Bronx block party hosted by DJ Kool Herc, later celebrated as the genre’s founding moment.
August 11, 1998: British Petroleum purchased Amoco for $49 billion.  This deal marked the beginning of a wave of “supermajor” oil mergers, influencing subsequent mega-mergers
like Exxon-Mobil.  Go to article.

August 11, 1965: Watts Riot, Los Angeles.
Alex Haley, author, b. 1921.

After Mount Vesuvius erupted, Romans returned to Pompeii and stayed for 400 years — but it was likely anarchy
New excavations in Pompeii’s Insula Meridionalis quarter have confirmed long-held suspicions that people returned to the ancient Roman city after the volcanic eruption in A.D. 79. Read More.

‘Like a creeping mold that’s spreading across the landscape’: Separate dry areas around the world are merging into ‘mega-drying’ regions at an alarming rate, study finds
Unchecked groundwater extraction and climate change have dried continents significantly over the past 22 years, with 101 countries now losing fresh water to the ocean, research reveals. Read More.

Venus and Jupiter conjunction: How to watch the 2 brightest planets ‘kiss’ on Aug. 12
Venus and Jupiter will meet in a conjunction in the early morning hours of Aug. 12. Here’s everything you need to know to spot the two brightest planets at their best. Read More.

How ‘flying boats’ are bringing EVs to the ocean — with the help of LeBron James and Tom Brady
A new electric motorsport championship is making an ambitious pitch to bring electric engines to the ocean — and Will Smith, LeBron James and Tom Brady are along for the ride.

Flooding reveals 100-million-year-old footprints
A volunteer found the dinosaur tracks while removing debris in central Texas. 

There’s a giant blob of incredibly hot rock beneath New Hampshire
And apparently, it may be a part of the reason the Appalachian Mountains are still standing tall.

‘Weapons’ scares away the competition
The horror movie grossed over $42 million domestically and topped the box office over the weekend.

“There are people who dare, who dream, and who lead others to places we would not go on our own. Jim Lovell, who for a long while had gone farther into space and for longer than any other person of our planet, was that kind of guy.” — Actor Tom Hanks, sharing this tribute on his Instagram page about the astronaut who died on Aug. 7. Hanks played Lovell in the 1995 Oscar-winning movie “Apollo 13.”

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Hechi, China
The Cliff Bookstore, built into a 100m-year-old cliff face, attracts tourists to its location on the edge of a sinkhole in the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region
Photograph: Long Tao/VCG/Getty Images

Gjakova, Kosovo
A diver jumps from a bridge into the White Drin River during a traditional high diving competition
Photograph: Armend Nimani/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Istanbul, Turkey
The full moon rises behind the city’s Galata tower
Market Closes for Aug 11^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
I am tariff man, standing on a tariff platform. -William McKinley, 1843-1901.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 27,775.23 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s little change.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 7 of 11 sectors gained; 109 of 212 shares rose, while 100 fell.
Constellation Software Inc/Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.4%.
Bausch Health Cos. had the largest increase, rising 16.1%.

Insights
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on Aug. 7, 2025, and 25% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.8% in the past 5 days and rose 2.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 on a trailing basis and 17.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.47t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.76% compared with 9.82% in the previous session and the average of 7.11% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 12.1633| 0.1| 17/8
Industrials | 10.9601| 0.3| 17/11
Energy | 6.3541| 0.1| 18/21
Consumer Discretionary | 5.3370| 0.6| 6/3
Consumer Staples | 3.1590| 0.3| 7/3
Health Care | 2.7506| 4.2| 2/1
Communication Services | 0.6660| 0.1| 3/2
Utilities | -0.4888| 0.0| 8/6
Information Technology | -0.9860| 0.0| 1/9
Real Estate | -3.5550| -0.7| 6/12
Materials | -19.8031| -0.5| 24/24
Constellation | Software | 27.8200| 4.4| 47.2| 8.0
RBC | 14.8300| 0.8| -26.3| 6.1
Enbridge | 11.8900| 1.2| 166.3| 7.3
Barrick Mining | -9.1380| -2.4| 165.7| 41.1
Wheaton Precious | Metals | -13.5200| -3.1| 25.3| 66.0
Shopify | -20.7800| -1.2| -24.1| 32.9
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange eked out its first rise in three sessions on Monday, buoyed by cannabis stocks amid talk of a possible reclassification in the United States, while Rosenberg Research said its scorecard for Canadian equities remains above that of the United States.
Despite mixed commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index managed to close 16.55 points at 27,775.23, with most sectors up, led by Health Care, near 5% higher, on the strength of cannabis issues.
Energy was the biggest loser, down near 1%.
Cannabis listings jumped Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration is looking at reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug.
Among dual listed stocks, Aurora Cannabis (ACB.TO, ACB) was up more than 16%, and Cronos (CRON.TO, CRON) was up near 15% and Tilray (TLRY.TO, TLRY) was up 40%.
Looking at the big picture for equities, Rosenberg Research in its latest ‘Strategizer’, a monthly guidebook for active investors, said its U.S.-focused asset allocation model is unchanged from last month, retaining a minus 10 percentage point underweight in equities (45%) while overweighting both fixed income (45%) and cash (10%).
Strategizer’s Canadian equity model score fell for the third month in a row, down to 24.6 from 29.0 and breaking into “underweight” territory in the process.
Rosenberg Research continues to note extreme volatility in its model’s view on Canada of late, sitting at the highest score since October 2024 just three months ago to now sitting at the lowest score since August 2021.
It said while optimism around the new government under Prime Minister Mark Carney and, more recently, the potential resumption in Bank of Canada rate cuts ahead, have both helped to push up the index towards new highs, the price action has superseded underlying earnings momentum and dragged the scorecard lower.
Though, the research noted, it remains above that of the United States.
Strategizer is “approaching max. bearish on U.S. stocks”.
At the sector level, its Canadian equity model keeps Financials (#1) and Materials (#2) in the group of favored sectors, joined by a tie for #3 between Energy and Real Estate.
Industrials (#8 from #3) and Communication Services (#5 from #4) have fallen out of the top rankings.
Meanwhile, Strategizer’s commodity model pulled back “a touch” in July, declining to a score of 56.0 from 58.2.
Following more bullish readings of a year ago (CRB spot index up about 6% since), Strategizer “retains its constructive overall view with prior commentary remaining consistent”.
According to the Strategizer, median time-spreads are depressed, at a 38^th percentile reading, which is indicative of loosening supply.
It said: “This is consistent with a sluggish global growth backdrop.
Positioning data are reflective of this, maintaining a very light portion of investors’ portfolios (30th percentile; contrarian positive), as are cheap valuations”.
In other words, it added, negativity is warranted but is properly discounted “in the price.”
The result is the risk of a “positive” surprise relative to expectations, it noted.
Aluminum (#1), wheat (#2), RBOB gasoline (#3), WTI crude (#4), and heating oil (#5) make up the individual components at the top of Strategizer’s individual commodity rankings.
The Strategizer said this mix is reflective of the broadening out across select commodity markets, from metals, to agriculture, to energy, relative to prior months that were dominated by one subgroup.
It was mostly energy prior to this, for example, it added.
On gold, specifically, the research noted a pullback in the Strategizer model score to 26.8 from 31.5, with the yellow metal once again making a push to new record highs above US$3,400 per ounce.
“Long-term,” the research said, “we remain bullish, but this recent period of consolidation/range-trading since April has kept our model’s near-term outlook as a ‘hold’.”
Of commodities today, gold was sharply lower late afternoon Monday as confusion over whether the U.S. will impose tariffs on imports of gold bars continues.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $89.60 per ounce to US$3,401.70 per ounce, after rising as high as US$3,543.10 on Friday in volatile intraday trade.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil edged up from a two-month low despite rising supply as the market focuses on Friday’s planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $0.08 to settle at US$63.96 per barrel, rising off the lowest since June 5, while October Brent oil was seen up $0.16 to US$66.75.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street refrained from making big bets ahead of key inflation report, with a rally in stocks stalling near record highs.
Bonds wavered.
The dollar edged up.
Markets barely budged on a news report that Donald Trump is extending a tariff truce with China.
Investors are turning to economic data for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will be able cut rates in September.
Meantime, Trump signed an order extending the truce with the Asian nation for 90 days, CNBC reported.
The S&P 500 remained below 6,400.
Mega caps were mixed, with Tesla Inc. up and Apple Inc. down.
The US president signaled he’d be open to allowing Nvidia Corp. to sell a scaled-back version of its most advanced AI chip to China.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.28%.
A dollar gauge rose 0.2%.
Bitcoin briefly topped $122,000.
Gold futures pared losses as Trump said gold imports will not face US tariffs.
Data due Tuesday is forecast to show US consumers saw a slight pickup in inflation as retailers gradually raised prices on a variety of items subject to higher import duties.
“The market’s reaction to any surprises in the numbers could be exaggerated — especially if a significantly hotter- than-expected CPI print leads traders to believe the Fed may not cut rates at its next meeting,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
The Fed’s two vice chairs, Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are under consideration to serve as chair of the central bank when the position opens next year, according to two administration officials.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will interview additional candidates in the coming weeks, said the officials.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows 18% of investors believe that the market reaction to CPI will be “risk-on,” 43% said “mixed” and 39% “risk-off”.
The core consumer price index, regarded as a measure of underlying inflation because it strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% in July, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
“There is no doubt about it, CPI, will not be good tomorrow,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“The bigger question is ‘does it matter?’ We think not.
Inflation will remain sticky, with potholes, but a weakening employment situation will commandeer the Fed outlook.”
Money markets show traders have priced in more than two rate reductions by December, with an about 80% probability of a quarter-point Fed cut as early as next month.
There’s a 70% chance of further gains in the S&P 500 after the inflation report, according to the JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Market Intelligence team led by Andrew Tyler.
They predict the S&P 500 will advance as much as 2% if the data is either in-line or cooler than estimated.
A hot report could spark declines of nearly 3%.
“There’s little evidence that tariffs are biting,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Retail flows remain strong, institutions are hesitant but still buyers, and share repurchase activity is on pace to hit a record.”
He continues to expect a “sideways trend” until a broader reset later this year.
A light print on US CPI data this week could mean small caps and lower quality stocks would “gain more durable footing,” according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
“We think it makes sense for equity investors to stay nimble” around the report.
Meantime, strategists at Citigroup Inc. raised their year- end target for the S&P 500 to 6,600 points from 6,300.
Companies have produced “an impressive beat,” while also mostly sticking with their projections for the second-half of the year, the team led by Scott Chronert said.
US companies struck a more positive tone last week on post- earnings conference calls, although there’s still uncertainty around consumer demand and capex, according to RBC Capital Markets strategists led by Lori Calvasina.
“For now, investors are choosing to focus on what they can see in front of them, which is stronger-than-expected earnings growth, a durable AI secular theme, and a still firm economic backdrop,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
However, Saglimbene said this week’s key inflation data and reads on the consumer could challenge investors’ rather complacent view of the potential risks to growth.
“Yet, until there is more concrete evidence of tariff impacts, investors appear comfortable putting those risks to the side for now,” he noted.
A record share of fund managers sees US stocks as too expensive after the sharp rally since April lows, according to a monthly survey by Bank of America Corp.
About 91% of participants indicated that US stocks are overvalued, the highest ever proportion in data going back to 2001.
“We think investors already allocated to equities in line with their strategic benchmarks should consider implementing short-term hedges, while those under-allocated can prepare to add exposure on potential market dips,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Meantime, interest-rate strategists at BofA lowered Treasury yield forecasts in anticipation that recent economic data will drive a shift in the Fed’s assessment of risks.
Strategists led by Mark Cabana cut their year-end forecast for two-year yields to 3.5%, from 3.75% previously.
They see 10- year yields at 4.25% by the end of December compared with the previous estimate of 4.5%.
On the geopolitical front, President Trump downplayed expectations for his upcoming meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin as he seeks to end the war in Ukraine, casting it as a “feel-out meeting” and saying he would confer with Ukrainian and European leaders after the sitdown.
Trump also said he hopes China will massively step up its purchases of American soybeans, even as China has yet to book any cargoes for the upcoming season.

Corporate Highlights:
* Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. have agreed to pay 15% of their revenues from Chinese AI chip sales to the US government in an unusual deal that threatens to set a precedent for American companies doing business in the Asian nation.
* Intel Corp. Chief Executive officer Lip-Bu Tan was expected to meet with Donald Trump, four days after the US president called for Tan’s resignation, citing conflicts of interest.
* Micron Technology Inc. raised its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue and earnings outlook, citing “improved pricing” for a key product.
* The Trump administration released new guidance outlining how states can use federal funds to build electric-car chargers after a federal court blocked an earlier move to freeze the program.
* C3.ai Inc. tumbled after a steep sales miss the software company attributed to its founder’s health issues.
* Rumble Inc. is weighing an offer to buy German data center company Northern Data AG in an all-stock deal valuing the target at about $1.17 billion that would boost the conservative video service’s bid to become a cloud-computing provider.
* Ford Motor Co. unveiled plans for a new line of budget electric vehicles in a $5 billion bid to achieve the mass appeal that has so far eluded its money-losing EV business.
* General Motors Co. is seeking to lure back some former employees of its defunct Cruise autonomous-vehicle business as part of a renewed push to develop a new driverless car, according to people familiar with the matter.
* An explosion at United States Steel Corp.’s Clairton Coke Works plant in Pennsylvania on Monday left dozens of workers injured or trapped, according to multiple news reports.
* Walt Disney Co.’s ESPN and Fox Corp. plan to offer a bundled package that will include both of their new streaming services for $40 a month.
* Paramount has acquired the exclusive rights to show all events from the Ultimate Fighting Championship in the US over the next seven years, the companies announced Monday, a $7.7 billion deal designed to boost the Paramount+ streaming service.
* Shares of North American lithium producers soared as investors bet that the suspension of a major Chinese mine would ease a supply glut and likely lead to a rebound in prices.
* Management of Orsted A/S failed to convince analysts and investors that the company is at a turning point after losing nearly one third of its value from announcing it would sell shares.
* Barrick Mining Corp. posted a net charge of $1.04 billion related to the seizure of its vast Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex by Mali’s military junta.
* Electricite de France SA was forced to shut four atomic reactors after a swarm of jellyfish clogged up filter drums at its Gravelines power plant.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“US stocks no longer look like a one-sided market chasing upside, and any rallies driven by expectations for Federal Reserve support are primed for a sharp unwind if the narrative of a dovish pivot is challenged.”
– Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 3:03 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1611
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3433
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 148.14 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $119,678.58
* Ether rose 1.8% to $4,293.07
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.57%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.76%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.84%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $64.03 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.2% to $3,356.65 an ounce

Have a wonderful evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Everything you’ve ever wanted is sitting on the other side of fear. –George Addair, 1823-1899.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com