Aug 6th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

August 6, 1945: Atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
August 6, 1991: Tim Berners-Lee publishes the world’s first website, launching the World Wide Web for public access.

On this day in 1979, Paul Volcker took office as chair of the Federal Reserve. His policies broke the back of 1970s inflation but spurred two recessions.

Alfred Lord Tennyson, poet, b. 1809.
Lucille Ball, comic actress, b. 1911.
Andy Warhol, artist, b. 1928.

American journalist goes missing in Norway
Alec Luhn, who’s worked for National Geographic, The New York Times and The Atlantic, disappeared while hiking.

Dame Stella Rimington, the first woman to lead MI5, died aged 90. She headed Britain’s domestic secret service between 1992 and 1996, and was widely thought to have inspired Dame Judi Dench, an actress, in her depiction of M, the spymaster in James Bond films. After retirement Dame Stella wrote several spy novels that are guilty pleasures.

2025 MTV Video Music Awards nominations announced
It’s a crowded field, but Lady Gaga is leading the pack.

Skittles, Hershey and Nestle are removing artificial colors
But nutritionists and public health researchers say don’t buy the hype.

107.2 F:  That’s how hot it was in Japan on Tuesday, the highest-ever temperature recorded in the country. 

A parade of volcanoes is erupting in Russia following an 8.8 earthquake
Six Russian volcanoes erupted shortly after an 8.8 magnitude earthquake stuck nearby, with a seventh possibly to follow.  Read More.

‘Big-butt starfish,’ ‘little sweet potato’ and dozens of never-before-seen species recorded during deep-sea expedition off Argentina
Researchers have captured footage of a “big-butt seastar” off the coast of Argentina that looks like Patrick Star from “SpongeBob SquarePants.” Read More.

Scientists heat gold to 14 times its melting point — without turning it into a liquid
Scientists have used an ultrafast laser to heat solid gold to 14 times its melting point without turning the metal into liquid. Read More.

“It is history forgotten. If this helps renew that interest to thank all the people involved in the war effort, that’s important.”  — Pilot Adrian Eichhorn, a former US military officer, and pilot Shinji Maeda, a native of Japan, who plan to fly in close formation over Wendover Field in Utah today to mark the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, Japan.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

California, US
Stuffed toys are displayed below a balloon game at the Ventura county fair. The fair is held each August at Seaside Park and includes an agricultural show, carnival rides, food booths, and nightly concerts
Photograph: Allison Dinner/EPA

Tbilisi, Georgia
People visit the Chronicles of Georgia, a monument consisting of 16 massive columns on Keeni Hill. Designed by the Georgian-Russian artist Zurab Tsereteli, construction of the monument began in 1985. The upper sections of the columns depict kings, queens and national heroes from Georgian history
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Wendover, US
Cars are positioned in the staging area during the Southern California Timing Association’s Speed Week on the Bonneville salt flats in Utah. The event has resumed after a driver was killed when he lost control of his car during a speed-record attempt
Photograph: Brian Cahn/Zuma Press Wire/Shutterstock
Market Closes for Aug 6^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
I’ve never been able to predict accurately.  I don’t make money predicting accurately.  We just tend to get into good businesses and stay there. -Charlie Munger, 1924-2023.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 1.3%, or 350.79 to 27,920.87 in Toronto.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 6 of 11 sectors gained; 117 of 212 shares rose, while 93 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 21.5%.

Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain nine times. The next day, it advanced six times for an average 0.7% and declined three times for an average 1.4%
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 28.9% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 3.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.9 on a trailing basis and 17.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.45t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.96% compared with 9.38% in the previous session and the average of 6.50% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 305.6898| 10.9| 4/6
Financials | 39.0804| 0.4| 13/11
Materials | 22.1290| 0.6| 35/13
Energy | 5.7853| 0.1| 18/22
Consumer Discretionary | 3.4047| 0.4| 6/3
Consumer Staples | 2.0017| 0.2| 8/2
Utilities | -0.0342| 0.0| 7/7
Health Care | -0.4798| -0.7| 2/1
Real Estate | -0.6814| -0.1| 9/10
Communication Services | -5.3684| -0.9| 1/4
Industrials | -20.7395| -0.6| 14/14
Shopify | 320.8000| 21.5| 149.9| 39.1
RBC | 17.0100| 1.0| 5.2| 4.9
Canadian Pacific | Kansas | 11.4500| 1.7| 29.8| 1.1
Nutrien | -5.7700| -2.1| -8.3| 24.0
Constellation |Software | -9.2370| -1.4| 8.8| 6.3
Thomson Reuters | -26.1500| -10.1| 332.7| 7.2
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted its second-straight record close Wednesday, as Rosenberg Research seems to have called it correctly in a morning note when it said stocks are “mainly detached” from weak economic data, while individual stocks like Shopify shone.
Despite weaker commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 350.8 points, or 1.25%, to 27,920.87, even with sectors mixed.
Telecoms lost near 1.1%, but both the Battery Metals Index and Info Tech gained near 5%.
Among individual stocks, shares in e-commerce software platform Shopify (SHOP.TO, SHOP) jumped 22% to $212.82, making it the biggest company by market capitalization on the TSX, after reporting second-quarter earnings beat this morning.
National Bank kept an Outperform rating but raised its target on the stock to US$180 from US$140, on a “solid” result with particular outperformance in GMV, and also on “strong” guidance, with targeted revenue growth in the mid-to-high 20%s (versus National Bank’s forecast 20.6%, and consensus 21.5%). National said the company is “executing across the board” and “remains a top pick.”
National Bank added: “The results and outlook are consistent with our investment thesis where we see the company executing on a number of growth opportunities (enterprise, scaling take rate, POS, international, and now B2B).
Interestingly, Shopify also noted it’s not seeing any (material) impact from macro uncertainties and has limited exposure to the [U.S]. removal of de minimis (Shopify’s exposure represents near 4% of global GMV).
Meanwhile, execution across all growth levers under operating leverage is helping drive profitability and cash flow.
Bottom line, we think it’s still early days for many of those growth opportunities, which is why the name remains one of our Top Picks.”
Elsewhere, Wedbush reiterated an Outperform rating and raised its Shopify price target to US$160 from $115.
Of commodities, gold was steady midafternoon on Wednesday, despite a weaker dollar, remaining close to the metal’s record high.
Gold for December delivery was down $1.30 to US$3,433.40 per ounce.
The price of the metal remains near its July 22 record high of US$3,501.80 per ounce amid strong safe haven demand as the U.S. economy slows while the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at the Sept. 17 meeting of its policy committee.
The CME Fed watch tool shows a 89.2% probability the central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points at the meeting.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for a fifth-straight session on Wednesday even as a report showed a larger than expected drop in U.S. inventories amid strong summer demand and U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order to impose 50% secondary sanctions on India for buying Russian oil, effective Aug.27.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed down $0.81 to settle at US$64.35 per barrel, the lowest since June 9, while October Brent oil was last seen down $0.82 to US$66.82.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stock buyers waded back into the market, with a rally in most big techs driving gains.
Short-dated Treasury yields fell on bets the Federal Reserve will soon be able to cut rates.
The dollar slid.
The impetus to buy the dip has rarely been this strong, with the S&P 500 up almost 1% after a brief slide this week.
The gauge has climbed an average 0.3% a day after a down session this year — on course for the second-best annual showing.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%.
Apple Inc. jumped 5.1%, with Donald Trump set to announce the firm will commit to a fresh $100 billion US investment as it seeks to avoid punishing tariffs on iPhones.
“Markets are thriving in a risk-on fashion today as investors shift their focus from volatile trade developments and lackluster economic data to robust corporate earnings,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
“Apple’s announcement of a $100 billion domestic manufacturing investment is additionally propelling ‘animal spirits’.”
A soft $42 billion sale of 10-year Treasuries saw a muted response; with yields little changed at 4.22%.
The yield on two- year notes fell three basis points to 3.70%.
Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said policymakers will probably need to adjust rates in coming months to prevent further weakness in the labor market.
Her Minneapolis counterpart Neel Kashkari said an economic slowdown may make a rate cut appropriate in the near term.
Meantime, Trump told European allies he’s planning to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as soon as next week in another bid to bring peace between the two countries.
The US imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods over its ongoing purchases of Russian energy.
Sandy Villere, portfolio manager at Villere & Co. said market participants seem to be focused on companies and earnings, and drowning out the noise coming out of Washington.
“There are a lot of narratives to keep track of in today’s investing environment, but earnings remain the main catalyst for stocks,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“While pullbacks are possible — particularly due to macro-related influences and poor seasonality trends — those pullbacks will likely prove to be buying opportunities.”
Stocks remain buoyant as betting against the market momentum “feels almost irrational,” according to a macro trader at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“The key point is that the market can’t look far enough. This is why it will ignore the recession risk,” Paolo Schiavone wrote.
Still, after the blistering rally in American equities, the Bloomberg Intelligence Market Pulse Index pushed to a “manic” reading last month, a sign that investor exuberance may be running too hot.
The measure combines six metrics like market breadth, volatility and leverage to deliver a reading on investor sentiment.
When it gets into overheated territory, returns tend to weaken in the following three months.
“While trade uncertainty and elevated valuations could be a modest headwind for equities in the near term, investors can consider ways to manage volatility while positioning for longer- term gains,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Those who are already allocated to equities in line with their strategic benchmarks should consider implementing short- term hedges, and those under allocated should prepare to add exposure on potential market dips, he noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* DoorDash Inc., the largest food delivery service in the US, issued an outlook for orders in the third quarter that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations.
* Airbnb Inc. issued a better-than-expected outlook for the third quarter as it saw encouraging summer travel demand, but warned that growth rates may not keep up later this year due to tough year-ago comparisons.
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su said the chipmaker has seen positive signs in demand for all its products and is making progress on getting US government approval to return to the China market.
* Super Micro Computer Inc. slumped after lowering its fiscal- year revenue forecast, raising questions about sales and pricing pressures around powerful AI servers.
* McDonald’s Corp. sales picked up in the latest quarter, suggesting that pop culture-focused collaborations and budget meals are helping to offset diners’ economic anxiety.
* Walt Disney Co. disappointed Wall Street with a tepid full- year profit forecast, weighed down by its struggling movie and TV businesses.
* General Motors Co. has signed a deal with Texas-based Noveon Magnetics Inc. to secure rare-earth magnets for its full-size pickup trucks and SUVs, marking the third domestic supply contract the automaker has signed related to the critical trade dominated by China.
* Rivian Automotive Inc., an electric-vehicle maker, backed away from a key financial goal and warned of mounting losses, highlighting the pressure it’s facing from President Donald Trump’s tariffs and changes to US environmental rules.
* Uber Technologies Inc.’s rideshare division missed Wall Street estimates, disappointing investors who were looking for signs of more robust demand in its signature business.
* Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. is doubling down on its long-haul expansion with the first purchase of Boeing Co. widebody aircraft in a dozen years, while it struggles closer to home with its HK Express unit suffering from a sharp drop in regional demand.
* Snap Inc., the owner of the Snapchat photo-sharing app, acknowledged a slowdown in advertising revenue growth, due in part to a technical issue with its ad-buying tools earlier this year.
* Novo Nordisk A/S’s sales showed the weakest growth in four years as the Danish drugmaker loses ground to Eli Lilly & Co. in the crucial US market for obesity medicines, underscoring the slowdown that prompted last week’s profit warning.
* Six Flags Entertainment Corp. tumbled after poor weather conditions limited attendance, leading the theme-park operator to slash its full year outlook.
* Mosaic Co., the world’s leading producer of two key crop fertilizers, sank as US tariffs led to fewer and costlier second-quarter phosphate sales.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.9%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
* Apple rose 5.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.7% to $1.1657
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3358
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 147.18 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $115,291.2
* Ether rose 3% to $3,684.07
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.22%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.53%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.70%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.81%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.7% to $64.07 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $3,371.57 an ounce

–With assistance from Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Begin at once to live and count each separate day as a separate life. -Seneca, c. 4 BCE-65 CE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com