Aug 1st, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Friday.
Llamas: first harvest, Wicca.
August 1, 1834: Slavery is abolished across the British Empire as the Slavery Abolition Act 1833 comes into  force, freeing over 800,000 enslaved people.
August 1, 1789: US Customs established.
August 1, 1981: The music video channel MTV made its debut. Go to article.
August 1, 1990: World Wide Web established.

Herman Melville, writer, b. 1819.
Yves St. Laurent, designer, b. 1936.
Jerry Garcia, guitarist/vocalist, b. 1942.

Archaeologists discover 1,800-year-old Roman watchtower built to protect the empire during Marcus Aurelius’ reign
Archaeologists are excavating a Roman-era watchtower in Croatia that was “built in a strategic location” on the banks of the Danube River. Read More.

2,300-year-old arm tats on mummified woman reveal new insights about tattooing technique in ancient Siberia
A new analysis used near-infrared photography to shed light on the methods and tools for creating tattoos in the Early Iron Age Pazyryk culture. Read More.

Tomatoes randomly mated with another plant 9 million years ago. The result? Potatoes.
Researchers say they have finally uncovered the mysterious origins of one of our favorite carbs: the humble potato. Read More.

Lightning on Earth is sparked by a powerful chain reaction from outer space, simulations show
A new model may have finally solved where storm clouds get their missing energy. Read More.

Archaeologists race against time to explore shipwreck
Various threats could cause the remains of the English warship Northumberland to become unstable.

Ted Danson, Mary Steenburgen to receive special award at Emmys
The Hollywood couple will be honored for something other than their top-notch acting talents.

Want a perfect picture of the Dolomites for Instagram?
Prepare to pay for the right to take the shot.

IHOP pines for TikTok’s attention
The restaurant has created its most expensive stack of pancakes to woo fans who enjoy eating luxurious chocolate — and being on trend.

‘Houston, we have a problem.’ 
Thirty years after its original release, the blockbuster film “Apollo 13” is returning to movie theaters in a big way.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Cyclists speed around cows down the Cormet de Roseland pass during the 19th stage of the Tour de France which started in Albertville and finished in La Plagne.
Photograph: Mosa’ab Elshamy/AP
Tembisa, South Africa
Young ballet students Philasande Ngcobo and Yamihle Gwababa pose for a photograph outside the Mballet dance academy in Tembisa. The academy was created not just to teach ballet but to open doors in a community where resources are few and dreams often feel out of reach.
Photograph: Phill Magakoe/AFP/Getty Images

A butterfly rests on a bramble leaf in Dunsden, Oxfordshire, UK. Some spotters have seen an increase in butterflies this year
Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Shutterstock
Market Closes for Aug 1^st, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
I am wrong nine out of ten times but it is what I do in consequence of being right that has made my fortune. -George Soros, b. 1930.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.9%, or 239.35 to 27,020.43 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 3% on April 10.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.4%.
Brookfield Renewable Partners LP had the largest drop, falling 6.7%.
Today, 145 of 212 shares fell, while 64 rose; all sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 1.7%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended April 4
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2% below its 52-week high on July 30, 2025 and 24.8% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 on a trailing basis and 17.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.41t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.40% compared with 6.80% in the previous session and the average of 6.17% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -83.8840| -0.9| 5/20
Information Technology | -72.4121| -2.6| 0/10
Energy | -34.8121| -0.8| 6/34
Industrials | -23.0177| -0.7| 6/22
Consumer Staples | -14.2224| -1.4| 1/9
Communication Services | -6.2862| -1.0| 3/2
Real Estate | -2.0290| -0.4| 5/12
Utilities | -1.4099| -0.1| 7/7
Health Care | -0.6208| -1.0| 1/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.4375| 0.0| 4/5
Materials | -0.2312| 0.0| 26/22
Shopify | -48.8900| -3.4| 39.0| 7.0
Brookfield Corp | -27.0800| -2.9| 43.9| 9.1
Canadian Natural Resources | -16.7000| -2.6| -52.0| -3.7
TC Energy | 4.3620| 0.9| -67.7| -0.3
MDA Space | 5.4440| 18.4| 158.0| 55.5
Enbridge | 14.9400| 1.6| 15.8| 4.5
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Friday saw its losses for the last three sessions since Tuesday’s record close rise to near 500 points, as an “arbitrary” deadline for a trade agreement between Canada and the United States passed, leading to President Donald Trump applying a 35% tariff to many Canadian goods.
The S&P/TSX Composite index closed 239.35 points to 27,020.43, down from the Tuesday record close of 27,539.88.
Most sectors were in the red, led by Info Tech down near 2.3%.
The Battery Metals Index was one of the few gainers, up 0.3%.
On sectors, Rosenberg Research published a note titled ‘Our Big Picture Investment Themes’ which it said, “a screen of global equity markets points to increasing ex. U.S. exposure”.
It remains Underweight on the Energy sector but sees Canadian Utilities as “an attractive single-sector diversification strategy”.
Rosenberg Research said precious metals are “the pick” of the commodity space, noting gold “has tailwinds which should sustain the rally” and gold mining stocks “have a bright future”.
The research added precious metals like platinum, palladium, and rhodium “each face a complex supply picture, so we suggest different time horizons”, while silver is “set to post solid gains when it mean-reverts towards its typical relationship with gold”. According to Rosenberg Research, other gold-exposed financial assets are also “poised for a run”, while supply-demand imbalances in non-precious metals make it “bullish” on uranium, copper, graphite, lithium, and aluminum.
On trade, Canada has refused to roll over and accept whatever deal the Trump Administration was willing to offer it on trade ahead of a penciled in deadline of today.
CBC News on Friday afternoon carried an interview with Dominic LeBlanc, the Minister Responsible for Canada-U.S.
Trade, during which he said the Canadian federal government is “not going to accept any deal because of an arbitrary timeline” the Americans set.
He added his government continues to look for the best deal for Canada: “If yesterday afternoon that deal wasn’t clearly on the table, then we will continue to talk with the Americans.”
LeBlanc noted he has agreed to talk again with Howard Lutnick, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, over a phone next week.
The Canadian Press is reporting business groups are anxiously watching trade negotiations and don’t want the country to rush into a deal, but say the uncertainty is weighing on their members.
The report noted groups representing Canada’s small businesses, steel producers and more spent Friday hammering a unified message: “no deal is better than a bad deal”.
“A little more time now can deliver lasting benefits for an integrated North American economy – and that’s well worth the wait,” said Candace Laing, chief executive of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, in a statement.
In a bigger picture, but somewhat related note, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, published ‘Good Things May Come from Bad Payrolls’ in which he noted the U.S. job market is “suddenly weaker than previously thought” after today’s nonfarm payrolls.
Holt in the summary noted negative revisions for May and June were the biggest since the pandemic first struck.
“Trump administration policies are likely at fault,” he said, before adding later in his note: “So what really caused the revisions to seasonally unadjusted payrolls in May and June? That’s unclear.
But it’s possible that amid the turmoil that has employers scrambling to deal with the effects of rapid change to trade, immigration, fiscal and other policies, that data quality is being further impaired by low response rates.”
Holt noted markets assumed the Fed will rapidly shift toward easing interest rates on the back of numbers like these, that showed a negative revision to job growth in May and June that totaled 258,000 positions. But he said “the bigger policy pivot may have to be made by the Trump administration”.
Perhaps, Holt said, some good may come of it. “To date,” he added, “markets and fundamentals have not shown enough of an impact of soaring policy uncertainty.
That may be changing.
If so, then along with the ongoing court challenge against Trump’s tariffs, this may be the best hope to restore some sense of reason within the US administration in terms of the toxic effects of its trade policies on the world and US economies.
All along, the best hope for pushing back against US tariffs as they went globally has been to exact a toll on the US itself.”
Holt’s comments came before President Trump directed his team to “immediately” fire Dr.
Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whom he accused of manipulating the monthly jobs reports for “political purposes”.
Of commodities today, gold was sharply higher late afternoon on Friday as the dollar and yields plunged after the U.S. reported new hiring rose less than expected in July, while estimates for job growth in May and June were cut by a quarter-million positions as the country’s economy slows under President’s Donald Trump’s economic policies.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $62.20 to US$3,410.80 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower as investors shed risk assets after fresh U.S. tariffs and a weak U.S. jobs report raised worries over slowing global growth.
WTI crude oil closed down $1.93 to settle at US$67.33 per barrel, while October Brent oil was down $2.05 to US$69.65.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street saw a broad flight from risk assets, with stocks sinking amid mounting signs of job-market weakness, President Donald Trump’s latest volley of tariffs and geopolitical worries.
Short-term Treasury yields plunged the most since 2023 on bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates.
The S&P 500 sank 1.6%, the most since May.
An uninspiring outlook from Amazon.com Inc. spurred a rout in mega caps.
A closely watched volatility gauge – the VIX – topped 20.
Two-year yields tumbled 28 basis points to 3.68%.
The dollar snapped a six-day advance.
Gold climbed as Trump said the US is moving two nuclear submarines to respond to “provocative” statements from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
Job growth cooled sharply, and the unemployment rate rose, with payrolls increasing 73,000 in July after the prior two months were revised down by nearly 260,000.
In the last three months, employment growth has averaged a paltry 35,000.
Money markets fully priced in two rate cuts in 2025, with a 90% chance of a reduction in September.
“What had looked like a Teflon labor market showed some scratches this morning,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“A Fed that still appeared hesitant to lower rates may see a clearer path to a September cut, especially if data over the next month confirms the trend.”
The pullback in stocks marked a sharp reversal for markets that had raced to record highs on the back of resilient economic growth, signs of cooling inflation, and a frenzy for AI-linked shares.
With valuations elevated, traders are now confronting a harsher backdrop amid renewed debate over how quickly the Fed might be forced to cut rates.
“The debate now is whether the White House was right, and the Fed was too late,” said Scott Helfstein at Global X.
“The Fed was probably right to wait, but job growth and the economy is slowing from a blistering rate.”
Trump told officials to fire Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, hours after a report showed US job growth cooled sharply.
“The US public statistics represent the gold standard,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
“Calling them into question because they tell you something you don’t like undercuts market confidence.”
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, speaking on Bloomberg Television after the numbers came out, said the labor market still looked healthy — though it was a “disappointing report to be sure.”
Ahead of the data, Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman issued statements explaining why they dissented Wednesday from the decision to hold rates steady, expressing concerns that hesitance to cut rates could risk unnecessary damage to the labor market.
Trump said Fed Chair Jerome Powell should be put “out to pasture” and called on the central bank’s board to “assume control” if rates were not lowered.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will step down from her position on the central bank’s board, handing Trump a sooner- than-anticipated opportunity to install a new policymaker who aligns with his vision for rates.
To Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, the jobs miss directly challenges the Fed’s hawkish posture from this week’s meeting.
“Just two days after the conclusion of this month’s Fed meeting, suddenly the dual mandate is back on the table,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“The Fed will again need to balance a slowing job market with inflation which isn’t slowing fast enough.”
Today’s report provides the evidence the Fed needs to make a September rate adjustment, so the only question is how large that will be, according to Rick Rieder at BlackRock.
“September is a lock for a rate cut — and it might even be a 50-basis point move to make up the lost time,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.
At eToro, Bret Kenwell says the most-obvious question is: How would the Fed handle a slowdown in the labor market alongside a rise in inflation?
“While neither is at an extreme right now, inflation is moving higher and the labor market is losing steam,” he said.
“When push comes to shove, the Fed would likely step in by easing financial conditions if the labor market truly begins to deteriorate, but it may not be as fast or as accommodating if inflation remains stubbornly high.”
To Marvin Loh at State Street Global Markets, the latest jobs data signal what a tough balancing act the Fed has given that wages are still growing at a decent clip and tariffs are still a major uncertainty.
Four months after Trump shocked the world by unveiling a placard full of tariff rates, his revisions Thursday left investors scrambling to grasp the full impacts of those levies.
At an average of 15%, the world is still facing some of the steepest US tariffs since the 1930s, roughly six times higher than they were a year ago.
“Our base case remains that the US effective tariff rate should settle at around 15% by the end of the year, and the economic impact is likely to prove manageable,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Still, tariffs are a headwind for global trade and growth, and they have started to contribute to a rise in inflation.”
With markets already pricing in much of the good news on the trade front, she expects stock volatility to pick up in the near term.

Corporate Highlights:
* Amazon.com Inc. projected weaker-than-expected operating income and trailing the sales growth of its cloud rivals, leaving investors searching for signs that the company’s huge investments in artificial intelligence are paying off.
* Apple Inc. reported its fastest quarterly revenue growth in more than three years, easily topping Wall Street estimates, after demand picked up for the iPhone and products in China.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. posted better-than- expected results after record oil production cushioned the impact of lower crude prices.
* Eli Lilly & Co. gained after a report that Medicaid and some Medicare drug plans will experiment with covering expensive weight-loss drugs, a sign the Trump administration is reconsidering its position against expanding coverage of these treatments.
* Moderna Inc.’s cost-cutting efforts failed to assuage investors who are worried about the decline of its Covid vaccine business.
* Kleenex-owner Kimberly-Clark Corp. is making inroads with cost-conscious US consumers, as lower-priced household goods items and surging volume helped it beat second-quarter earnings expectations.
* Reddit Inc. reported its most-profitable quarter to date and projected third-quarter sales that far surpassed analyst expectations, signaling the strength of its growing advertising business.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 3.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.9%
* The euro rose 1.4% to $1.1571
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3262
* The Japanese yen rose 2.2% to 147.43 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.8% to $113,237.39
* Ether fell 5.8% to $3,516.39
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 16 basis points to 4.22%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.68%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.53%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.8% to $67.31 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2.1% to $3,357.53 an ounce

–With assistance from Denitsa Tsekova, Vildana Hajric, Lu Wang and Julien Ponthus.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Life’s a voyage that’s homeward bound. –Herman Melville, 1819-1891.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com