April 6th, 2011 Newsletter
Dear Friends,
Today is Vancouver’s 125th birthday and celebrations are kicking off. I was returning from Vancouver this morning on the harbor-to-harbor flight and I happened to run into one of my clients who was booked on the same flight as me. He is a Vancouver businessman and had just come from delivering a breakfast speech to some of the mayors for the occasion. By the way, there are some great old photos of the city in today’s Vancouver Sun. Take a look if you have the chance; there is one of the Hotel Vancouver, which you won’t believe – especially the absence of anything around it.
I went to hear Elizabeth Gilbert last night, who was speaking as part of The Unique Lives & Experiences series; she is the authoress of Eat, Pray, Love, among other works. She is very entertaining – has a great sense of humor. She is living in a little town in New Jersey now with her husband whom she refers to as Javier – the star in the movie of the same name – still writing and running a store called Two Buttons.
Speaking of birthdays, it happens to be Gary’s tonight, so I’m leaving early to go home to cook dinner – and chill champagne…
photos of the day
April 6, 2011
Mirano Suzuki talks with her mother, Yasuko, on her first day of school at the Shimizu Elementary School in Fukushima, northern Japan. More than 70 schools began their regular classes in the city of Fukushima, more than 3 weeks after the earthquake and tsunami that hit the country on March 11. Suzuki’s family were evacuated from their house, located 3 miles from the Fukushima nuclear reactor. Carlos Barria/Reuters
Elizabeth Joliffe, age one, plays amongst some daffodils at Cliveden, Maidenhead, in southern England. It was predicted to be the warmest day of the year so far in Britain, local media reported. Eddie Keogh/Reuters
An ornithologist holds a stork before setting it free on the great Hungarian plains in Hortobagy, Hungary. Every year, employees of Budapest Zoo capture storks that are too young to make the journey south to Africa before the onset of winter in order to help them survive the cold months before setting them free in warmer weather. Bernadett Szabo/Reuters
Market Commentary:
Canada
By Matt Walcoff
April 6 (Bloomberg) — Canadian stocks fell from a 33-month high as oil producers declined on concern that environmental rules will limit oil-sands production.
Cenovus Energy Inc., Canada’s fifth-biggest energy company, lost 2 percent after the province of Alberta announced plans to set aside land for conservation. National Bank of Canada, the country’s sixth-largest lender by assets, slipped 2.1 percent after Bank of Nova Scotia cut its rating. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., the world’s largest fertilizer producer by market value, fell 2.6 percent after Monsanto Co. reported a drop in agricultural-chemical earnings.
The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index decreased 67.88 points, or 0.5 percent, to 14,202.65 after closing at the highest level since June 2008 yesterday.
“Every time when you have the market level bump up against a previous high, people get nervous,” said Marcus Xu, who helps manage C$1.7 billion ($1.8 billion) as director of equity investments at Genus Capital Management in Vancouver. “The psychology of investors is people remember the most-recent painful experience, so if you had a couple of stocks that went down 5 to 6 percent, you remember that.’”
The equity benchmark had gained each of the previous six days, advancing 2.7 percent during the period. S&P/TSX raw- materials companies surged 6.3 percent as gold climbed on demand for a haven from global instability and from inflation concerns, while Minmetals Resources Ltd. launched a takeover bid for Equinox Minerals Ltd.
Energy stocks retreated after Alberta proposed setting aside 20 percent of its oil-sands area for conservation. The area includes land belonging to companies including Cenovus and Suncor Energy Inc., the Globe & Mail reported.
Cenovus decreased 2 percent to C$37.64. Suncor, Canada’s largest oil and gas producer, lost 1.9 percent to C$42.76.
Canadian Oil Sands Ltd., the largest owner of the Syncrude project, slipped 1.5 percent to C$32.65.
National Bank lost 2.1 percent to C$77.54 after Kevin R. Choquette, an analyst at Scotiabank, cut his rating on the shares to “sector underperform” from “sector perform.”
Shares of the Montreal-based company have declined three- straight days after closing at a record high last week.
Potash Corp. fell 2.6 percent to C$57.47 after Monsanto reaffirmed a 2011 profit forecast that trails the average analyst estimate. Agrium Inc., Canada’s second-largest fertilizer producer, dropped 2.4 percent to C$89.42.
Nevsun Resources Ltd., which began gold production in Africa in February, advanced for a sixth day, jumping 5 percent to C$6.34 after saying its mine now turns out 1,000 ounces a day.
Minefinders Corp., which produces gold and silver in Mexico, soared 4.5 percent to C$14.02 after reporting first- quarter sales that beat the forecast of Andrew Kaip, a Bank of Montreal analyst, by 19 percent. The closing price was the highest since May 2007.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd., Canada’s second-largest publicly traded copper producer rallied 1.4 percent to a record C$142.01. Total output from a new copper-producing region in Zambia may reach 1 million metric tons a year by 2014. Company President Clive Newall spoke today at a conference in Santiago.
Westport Innovations Inc., which makes natural-gas engines, increased 6.1 percent to C$26.17 after Laurence Alexander, an analyst at Jefferies Group Inc., raised his rating on the stock to “buy” from “hold.” More fleets are likely to add natural- gas vehicles in 2012-13, Alexander wrote in a note to clients.
BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd. climbed 2 percent from a five-month low to C$53.53 as North American technology stocks rose amid speculation Cisco Systems Inc. will sell or spin off its consumer business.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc., Canada’s largest drugmaker, declined 3.3 percent from a seven-year high to C$50.35 after Cephalon Inc. rejected its $5.7 billion takeover offer. Valeant shares had surged 20 percent since it made the offer on March 29.
Canadian Tire Corp., the country’s biggest general-goods retailer, slumped 2.8 percent to C$62.55. The company restated its 2010 financial results, reducing earnings per share by 2.5 percent, to reflect the conversion to international accounting standards.
US
By Rita Nazareth
April 6 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the highest level since 2008, as Cisco Systems Inc. spurred a technology rally and European lenders’ plans to raise capital lifted financial shares.
Cisco Systems rallied 4.9 percent on speculation the maker of networking equipment will sell or spin off its consumer business. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. added at least 1.8 percent. Broadcom Corp. added 3.9 percent as Oppenheimer & Co. raised its rating for the maker of chips for television set-top boxes.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent to 1,335.54 at 4 p.m. The benchmark gauge rose as high as 1,339.38, near 1,343.01, its closing high for the rally since March 2009.
The Dow average advanced 32.85 points, or 0.3 percent, to 12,426.75, the highest level on a closing basis since June 2008.
“We’re beginning a period of a self-sustaining recovery,” said Michael Strauss, who helps oversee $27 billion as chief investment strategist at Commonfund in Wilton, Connecticut.
“There’s strength in economic data and corporate earnings.
Technology, in particular, is an area where the generation of cash flow presents an interesting valuation play. There are a number of companies looking to tweak their business models to help to get that more into focus,” he said. “If we break into new highs, we’ll certainly see new buyers into the market.”
The S&P 500 yesterday snapped a two-day gain as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting spurred speculation central bankers may begin removing record stimulus measures enacted to ensure the economy recovered from recession. The index had surged 27 percent through yesterday since Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s suggested on Aug. 27 a second round of asset purchases to stimulate the economy, a tactic known as quantitative easing.
President Barack Obama’s administration is preparing for the potential of a partial government shutdown that may come as soon as this weekend unless the White House and congressional Republicans can come to terms on a budget. Obama has called for daily negotiations to settle differences. Current spending authority for government operations is set to expire on April 8 and lawmakers remain at odds on approving a budget for the rest of the fiscal year.
“It’s economic momentum versus policy uncertainty,” said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Capital Management in Richmond, Virginia, which oversees $45 billion.
“Investors are concerned about potential headwinds related to budget concerns, inflation fears and the impact of Fed policy going forward. That’s weighing on the market as we approach the highs for the bull-market rally.”
The S&P 500 is trading near its bull market closing high of 1,343.01 on Feb. 18. Should the index close above that level, it could climb to 1,381, the next stop on its recovery from a plunge from its 1,576.09 intraday record in October 2007 to a low of 666.79 in March 2009, according to Schaeffer’s Investment Research’s Ryan Detrick.
“The fundamental drivers will probably continue to pull this market higher,” Detrick said in an interview from Cincinnati. “After that, the next logical area would be 1,440 on the S&P 500, which is the May 2008 peak.”
Cisco had the biggest gain in the Dow average, rising 4.9 percent to $18.07. Morgan Stanley said it expects structural changes after Chief Executive Officer John Chambers yesterday announced plans to make a “number” of targeted moves.
“We believe Cisco may be better off splitting itself into two or more businesses with different targets for growth and margin,” Morgan Stanley analyst Ehud Gelblum wrote in a note dated yesterday, reiterating his views from a Feb. 10 report.
Broadcom climbed 3.9 percent to $39.95. The biggest maker of chips for television set-top boxes was raised to “outperform” from “market perform” by Oppenheimer.
Monsanto declined 5.7 percent to $69.16. The company said its fourth-quarter loss will widen because of a decline in agricultural-chemical earnings. Profit excluding some items will rise to $2.72 to $2.82 per share in the 2011 fiscal year, from
$2.41 a year earlier, Monsanto said, reiterating a forecast first made in October. The average estimate of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was $2.85.
The S&P 500 may climb to a record 1,600 next year as U.S. corporate profits benefit from global economic growth, said Chris Hyzy, chief investment officer at U.S. Trust.
Profit by companies in the benchmark measure for U.S. equities will increase about 7 percent to 8 percent next year as the S&P 500’s valuation climbs to 16 times earnings, he said.
The index is trading at 13.7 times estimated 2011 earnings, Bloomberg data show.
“Global growth is going to be rising 4.5 percent-plus through this,” Hyzy, who oversees $367.7 billion in client assets at the Bank of America Corp. unit, said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness” with Margaret Brennan. As the global expansion has a larger impact than in the past on the balance sheets of U.S. companies, Hyzy said, it may also extend the bull market. “We call it a global bull marathon, not a race,” he said.
Have a wonderful evening everyone.
Be magnificent!
Man is setting out to satisfy needs that mean more to him
than simply nourishment and clothing.
He is embarking on a rediscovery of himself.
The history of man is that of his voyage toward the unknown,
in the search for the realization of his immortal Self, of his soul.
-Rabindranath Tagore,1861-1901
As always,
Carolann
Youth would be an ideal state if it came a little later in life.
-Herbert Henry Asquith, 1852-1928