April 30, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Beltane, Wicca.

Walpurgisnacht, Witch’s Night, Europe.  Beltane – the ancient Celtic union of goddess and god, water and light.  All fires are extinguished at sunset on Beltane Eve, the midpoint between the spring equinox and the summer solstice.  It is a celebration of all that is powerful and sensual n nature. Atop the Maypole, a womb-like inverted basket in hung with ribbons.  Dancers of each sex grasp the ribbons, facing one another,  The dancers weave, the ribbons intertwine…

We were there last night when the dark drew down: we set the bonfires leaping.
Then we vanished in the hear and we couldn’t be found until the dawn came creeping. –Celtic rock group Annwn

April 30, 1975: The fall of Saigon marks the end of the Vietnam War.

Deepest blue hole in the world discovered, with hidden caves and tunnels believed to be inside
Scientists have yet to reach the bottom of the Taam Ja’ Blue Hole in Mexico’s Chetumal Bay, which new measurements hint could be connected to a labyrinth of submarine caves and tunnels. Read More.

Earth from space: Lava bleeds down iguana-infested volcano as it spits out toxic gas
A satellite image of the Galápagos Islands’ La Cumbre volcano shows lava seeping from the iguana-covered mountain days into an ongoing, months-long eruption. Read More.

Why do people hear their names being called in the woods?
Auditory pareidolia is a phenomenon in which people can hear familiar sounds from seemingly static background noise. Read More.

Black hole ‘traffic jams’ are forcing cosmic monsters to collide, new study finds
Supermassive black holes may create conditions akin to “cosmic intersections with failed traffic lights” that make collisions between smaller stellar-mass black holes inevitable. Read More.

Quantum computing breakthrough could happen with just hundreds, not millions, of qubits using new error-correction system
Scientists have designed a physical qubit that behaves as an error-correcting “logical qubit,” and now they think they can scale it up to make a useful quantum computer using a few hundred. Read More.

Amateur archaeologists unearth mysterious Roman object
This 12-sided object is considered “one of archaeology’s great enigmas” and experts are still unsure what the Romans used it for.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
Employees of the Louvre return the painting Liberty Leading the People (1830) by Eugène Delacroix to its original spot after its restoration. The picture goes back on display on 2 May after six months of restoration work
Photograph: Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/Getty Images

Nochten, Germany
The Boxberg coal-fired power plant stands behind the newly inaugurated PV-Park Boxberg solar energy park.
Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Vienna, Austria
Images are projected on to a wall during a conference titled Humanity at the Crossroads, the former imperial palace
Photograph: Joe Klamar/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for April 30^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in in 1999, shares in Priceline hit $162, a 914% rise from the travel website’s IPO a month earlier, fueled by froth from the dotcom frenzy.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.3% at 21,714.54 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.3% on Feb. 13 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 185 of 224 shares fell, while 36 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.4%.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 9.5%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss seven times. The next day, it declined four times for an average 0.3% and advanced three times for an average 0.6%
* This month, the index fell 2%
* The index advanced 5.2% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 16.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.4% in the past 5 days and fell 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 on a trailing basis and 14.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.5t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.08% compared with 8.08% in the previous session and the average of 7.85% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -99.4661| -2.4| 1/40
Materials | -81.8349| -3.1| 2/47
Industrials | -44.5069| -1.5| 7/20
Financials | -32.2780| -0.5| 4/22
Information Technology | -31.3342| -1.7| 1/9
Consumer Staples | -11.2038| -1.2| 1/10
Real Estate | -2.0547| -0.4| 7/13
Consumer Discretionary | -0.6768| -0.1| 2/11
Utilities | -0.6669| -0.1| 8/7
Communication Services | 2.0019| 0.3| 2/3
Health Care | 4.9225| 7.5| 1/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -20.0900| -2.4| 53.5| -6.3
Canadian Natural Resources | -18.8200| -2.4| -61.7| 20.2
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -16.2900| -2.3| 79.0| 3.0
Tilray Brands | 5.2430| 41.9| 229.2| 11.8
TD Bank | 7.6910| 0.8| -23.2| -4.6
Restaurant Brands | 7.7970| 3.5| 44.0| 0.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market sank in the final stretch of April and bond yields climbed on concern that stubborn inflation will force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer.
On the eve of the Fed decision, a broad gauge of US labor costs closely watched by policymakers jumped the most in a year.
The data signaled wage pressures, reinforcing bets that officials will keep rates unchanged at a two-decade high Wednesday — and are unlikely to lower them anytime soon.
That perception combined with a plunge in consumer confidence weighed heavily on equities — which suffered their worst month since September.
The last time Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke he pointed to the lack of further progress in bringing inflation down, and to enduring strength in the labor market.
The latest inflation signals — in tandem with expectations for a robust employment report on Friday — aren’t likely to lead him to change his tune.
“The markets are in full fear-mode going into tomorrow’s Fed announcement,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “Rates won’t go down in the near future and equities are having trouble justifying their price.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the most since January.
In late hours, Amazon.com Inc. climbed as earnings beat estimates.
Starbucks Corp. posted its first sales decline in more than three years.
Treasury two-year yields topped 5% — the highest level since November.
The dollar notched its fourth consecutive monthly advance — the longest winning run since September 2022.
“Stocks, bonds, and the dollar are all frontrunning the possibility of a frowning Powell at tomorrow’s interest rate decision,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “This morning’s data justifies an increasingly hawkish committee.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that only 16% of investors polled expect a “risk-on” reaction to Wednesday’s Fed decision, 44% said “risk-off,” and 40% “negligible/mixed.”
The tally also revealed that two thirds of respondents still expect a rate cut in 2024.
US consumer confidence fell in April to the lowest since mid-2022 as Americans’ views of the labor market and their outlook for the economy deteriorated.
A broad gauge of labor costs closely watched by the Fed increased the most in a year, illustrating persistent wage pressures that are keeping inflation elevated.
“With inflation data continuing to be surprisingly hot for the past quarter, the narrative that these surprises are all attributable to ‘one offs’ in individual components is becoming harder to sustain,” said Joe Davis at Vanguard. “Time will tell, but the data suggest that what we call a ‘deferred landing’ is more likely than the long anticipated ‘soft landing’.”
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the disappointment on wages will make the Fed less confident in the outlook for inflation.
“This will manifest itself in a harder tone,” he said “with policymakers clearly open to a more extended hold beyond the initial delay for the first cut from June to July/ September — if there is not a clear stepdown in inflation in the coming months.”
Sticky US inflation this year isn’t necessarily bad news for the stock rally as higher yields are a reflection of strong economic growth, according to HSBC strategists led by Max Kettner.
“If the Fed’s cuts turn out to be more like the recalibration in the mid-1990s and 2019, it may not necessarily be bad news for risk assets,” they wrote.
Bank of America Corp. clients posted their largest inflows to US equities in eight weeks during the five-day period ended Friday.
All major client groups — institutions, hedge funds, and retail investors — were net buyers last week, quantitative strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said in a note to clients Tuesday.
Net inflow totaled $3 billion, largest in two months, per B of A.
The recent rebound in equity markets was not driven by a change in investor flows, but rather by the unwind of profitable bearish positions, Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Chris Montagu wrote.
They also noted that the bounce couldn’t continue on de-risking flows alone — and should be supported by new bullish inflows.
Despite its reputation, May has historically been a positive month for the equity market, although gains have been backend-loaded towards the last week of the month, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
May tends to be a positive month with an average gain of 0.93% dating back to 1983 and 0.68% over the last 10 years, the firm said.
“The six months from May through October haven’t necessarily been a negative period for equities, but historically, it is the weakest six-month stretch on the calendar,” Bespoke noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* McDonald’s Corp. results fell short of expectations in the first quarter, hampered by slowing growth in the US and the reverberations of the Israel-Hamas war.
* Coca-Cola Co. issued a more optimistic 2024 forecast after first-quarter results outpaced Wall Street’s expectations as customers in markets around the world continue to pay higher prices and drive volume growth.
* 3M Co. plans to slash its dividend, ending more than six decades of boosting the payout each year as it enters a new era following the spinoff of its health-care products division.
* Eli Lilly & Co.’s brighter outlook for 2024 raised the potential ceiling for new weight-loss drugs even further in the eyes of analysts and investors.
* PayPal Holdings Inc.’s payment volume climbed 14% in the first quarter on increased consumer spending globally, giving a boost to the firm’s shares in early trading.
* Meta Platforms Inc.’s social media platforms Facebook and Instagram are under investigation from the European Union amid concerns they’re failing to cull targeted disinformation peddled by Russia that aims to sow discord on the continent.
* Walmart Inc.’s deal to buy smart-TV maker Vizio Holding Corp. will undergo an in-depth antitrust review by the Federal Trade Commission, Vizio said Tuesday.
* Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. warned of pressured margins for the remainder of the year, even as quarterly earnings beat estimates.
* Paramount Global replaced Chief Executive Officer Bob Bakish, appointing a management committee as the board negotiates a possible change in control of the company.
* MicroStrategy Inc. posted a first-quarter loss after taking an impairment charge against the value of its roughly $13 billion in Bitcoin holdings even though the cryptocurrency surged during the period.

Key events this week:
* Holiday across much of Europe, Wednesday
* Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, Wednesday
* US ADP employment change, JOLTS job openings, ISM Manufacturing, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve rate decision, Wednesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Thursday
* US factory orders, initial jobless claims, trade, Thursday
* Apple earnings, Thursday
* Eurozone unemployment, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, ISM Services, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0672
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2495
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 157.72 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 5.5% to $59,476.83
* Ether fell 7.4% to $2,941.03
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 4.68%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.58%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.35%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $81.60 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.8% to $2,292.50 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani and Alexandra Semenova.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The soul is dyed the color of its thoughts.  Think only on those things that are in line with your principals
and can bear the light of day.  The content of your character is your choice.
Day by day, what you do is who you become. –Heraclitus, c. 6th century BC- c. 5^th century BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com