April 29th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Arbor Day today.

April 29, 1769: Scottish engineer James Watt patents a steam engine, revolutionizing industrial power and laying the foundation for the Industrial Revolution.
April 29, 1992: Rioting erupted in Los Angeles after a jury acquitted four Los Angeles police officers of almost all charges in the videotaped beating of Rodney King. Fifty-four people were killed. Go to article

Duke Ellington, musician, b.1899
Emperor Hirohito, b. 1901.
Uma Thurman, actress, b.1970

Scientists spot a ‘dark nebula’ being torn apart by rowdy infant stars — offering clues about our own solar system’s past
The National Science Foundation’s Dark Energy Camera reveals a stunning glimpse into the ‘dark nebula’ known as the Circinus West molecular cloud, a region of space that’s so dense with gas that light can’t escape it.  Read More.

The Mariana Trench is home to some weird deep sea fish, and they all have the same, unique mutations
Deep-sea fish adapt to some of the most extreme conditions on Earth. New research analyzing their evolution finds the same mutation across fish species that have evolved on separate timelines — alongside human-made pollutants contaminating the deep sea. Read More.

Artificial superintelligence (ASI): Sci-fi nonsense or genuine threat to humanity?
Our current AI systems may one day evolve into a superintelligent entity, but scientists aren’t yet certain what this might look like and what the implications are. Read More.

Trial for 2016 Kardashian robbery begins
Almost nine years after reality TV star Kim Kardashian was bound, gagged and robbed at gunpoint in a Paris hotel, nine men and one woman are on trial for allegedly carrying out the dramatic heist. Nearly $10 million in cash and jewelry, including a $4 million engagement ring, was never recovered.

Future Rock & Roll Hall of Famers announced
Bad Company, Chubby Checker, Joe Cocker, Cyndi Lauper, Outkast, Soundgarden and the White Stripes will be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame this year. Salt-N-Pepa and the late Warren Zevon will receive the Musical Influence Award.

Kobe’s debut jersey sells for $7 million
The sale set a record for any memorabilia tied to the Los Angeles Lakers legend, who died in a helicopter crash in 2020 along with his 13-year-old daughter Gianna and seven others.

Look but don’t touch, kid
A child has damaged a huge painting by Mark Rothko that was on display at a Dutch museum. Conservators are now trying to repair “Grey, Orange on Maroon, No. 8,” which is said to be worth tens of millions of dollars, to fix the scratches the child left in the paint.

Goldie’s great review: 10/10
“Harry Potter” star Rupert Grint left a humorous review of his new baby girl on Instagram. His partner, Georgia Groome, also received special recognition.
$60 million: That’s about how much a US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet costs. One was recently lost at sea after it fell off the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Frankfurt, Germany
A hare pauses at Frankfurt airport
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Chongqing, the world’s largest city – in pictures
One of the entrances to The Ring shopping centre
Photographs by Alessandro Gandolfi

The Buddhist Luohan temple
built between 1064 and 1067 during the Song dynasty and remodelled several times since
Photographs by Alessandro Gandolfi
Market Closes for April 29^th , 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Almost any insider purchase is worth investigating for a possible lead to a superior speculation.  But very few insider sales justify concern. -William Chidester, (Scientific Investing).
Canada
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange recorded its tenth gain in the last 12 sessions on Tuesday, rising following Monday’s federal election that kept the Liberal Party led by Prime Minister Mark Carney in power but left the party just a few seats short of a majority in Parliament.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 75.89 points to 24,874.48.
Among sectors, the biggest gainers were Health Care, up 1.48%, and Telecoms, up 0.88%.
Energy, down 0.81%, was the biggest decliner.
Tuesday’s rise leaves the index down about 1% since U.S. President Donald Trump was inaugurated, on Jan. 20, and before he started to threaten the Canadian economy and sovereignty, issues that became central to the platforms for each of the parties that contested the election here.
According to Rosenberg Research, last night’s Canadian election delivered a Liberal minority government with major implications for Canadian fiscal policy.
Rosenberg said with the Liberals already promising major spending increases if they won a majority, it expects the need to make deals with smaller left-wing parties in the minority parliament further increases expected treasury issuance and is a modest support to growth and the loonie.
Fiscal stimulus in late 2025 should reduce easing pressure for the Bank of Canada, it added.
The election, Rosenberg noted, was dominated by a sense of Canadian nationalism and a ‘rally-round-the-flag’ effect that benefited the incumbent Liberals.
It said the replacement of the unpopular Justin Trudeau by Mark Carney as leader of the Liberals also played a major role.
Smaller parties, the NDP, Bloc Quebecois, and the Greens, were all squeezed, with many voters engaging in strategic voting to keep out the Conservatives, the research added.
“One of our major geopolitical themes for this year has been uncertainty, and this is no exception.
A minority parliament avoids the “stability bounce” in the loonie that would have come with a clear majority and slightly weakens Carney’s hand in negotiations with Donald Trump.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost his seat, as did NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, further increasing the uncertainty.
Another election could come as early as next year once the NDP resolves their leadership situation — or, the minority parliament could run for years,” Rosenberg noted.
It added: “Judging by the parties’ official platforms, we expect to see a significant increase in federal government spending under the Carney Liberals over the life of the parliament.”
Elsewhere, National Bank noted the vote centered on who was deemed best positioned to deal with an antagonistic U.S. Administration, while cost of living pressures were likewise top of mind for many voters.
Given the severity of the U.S. threat and structural roadblocks to growth, the Liberals ran on a ‘Canada Strong’ plan that involves net new investments and thus implies larger deficits and more federal debt, the bank said.
Carney’s Liberals, National Bank said, also favor a new approach to federal budgeting, shifting the focus to an operational budget they aim to balance by year four of their mandate.
No explicit debt targets were outlined in the Liberal plan, the bank noted. ”
Regardless, bond investors will be called upon to absorb incremental GoC supply, with non-residents having been a particularly vital source of demand lately,” National Bank added.
National Bank said the first most vital piece of business for the Prime Minister will be a quick re-engagement with the U.S. President on trade and security issues, ultimately with a view to lessening the tariff burden and securing predictable access for Canadian exporters.
“With the ‘old relationship’ with the U.S. essentially over, Canada needs a fresh strategy and bold action.
The Liberals aim to move on multiple fronts, promoting inter-provincial trade, lessening the personal tax burden, boosting housing supply, among other things.
There’s an opportunity to re-think Canada’s energy strategy too, though quick progress will require revisiting some contentious federal legislation.
We view this a worthwhile endeavor, having the potential to strengthen federal-provincial relationships and the national economy at the same time,” the bank noted.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for a second day on Tuesday on concerns supply is set to outpace flagging demand.
WTI crude oil for June delivery closed down $1.63 to settle at US$60.32 per barrel, while June Brent crude was last seen down $1.65 to US$64.21.
Also, gold eased late afternoon Tuesday as the dollar rose ahead of key U.S. economic data coming this week.
Gold for June delivery was last seen down $16.70 to US$3,331.00 per ounce.
By Bloomberg Automation:
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3%, with eight of 11 sectors higher, led by health care stocks.
As of market close, 150 of 218 stocks rose, while 61 fell.
Brookfield Business Partners LP led the advances, rising 3.9%,
while Kelt Exploration Ltd. decreased 3.7%.
Markets at a Glance:
* S&P/TSX Index rose 0.3% to 24,874
* Eight of 11 sectors rose
** Health care gained, up 1.1%
** Materials declined, down 0.8%
* Crude oil fell 2.9% to $60/bbl
* Natgas rose 0.7% to $3.37/mmbtu
* Gold fell 0.5% to $3,332/oz
* Silver fell 0.2% to $33/oz
Advancers:
* Brookfield Business Partners LP (BBU-U CN) +3.9%
* Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY CN) +3.1%
* TMX Group Ltd. (X CN) +2.9%: Florida SBA Backs TMX Group on 14 of 14 Proposals May 6, 2025
* GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL CN) +2.9%: GFL Environmental to Report Results; Shares Up 5.5% YTD: Preview
* Nutrien Ltd. (NTR CN) +2.4%: CalSTRS Backs Nutrien on 14 of 14 Proposals at May 7, 2025 AGM
Decliners:
* Kelt Exploration Ltd. (KEL CN) -3.7%
* International Petroleum Corp. (IPCO CN) -3.6%
* Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR CN) -3.5%
* ARC Resources Ltd. (ARX CN) -3.3%
* Energy Fuels Inc/Canada (EFR CN) -3.1%
US
By Rita Nazareth and Isabelle Lee
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders are cautiously adding fuel to the stock rebound, in a high-stakes bet that Corporate America will weather slowing economic growth and tariff-fueled disruptions to earnings.
Investors looked past weak consumer confidence and labor data to send the S&P 500 to its best six-day advance since March 2022 – with the gauge up about 8% in the span.
The Nasdaq 100 is close to erasing all its losses since April 2, when President Donald Trump announced his tariff offensive.
Treasuries extended their April gains on bets US activity will further cool down.
A cohort of stock bulls are fueling a comeback in equities, even as Trump’s tariff turmoil shows no sign of letting up with the economic toll rising by the day.
One theory holds that investors are fearful of missing out on the early phase of the market bounce, mindful of the long history of US rebounds.
Add bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to prevent a recession, and a risk-on investment case may build.
Yet after cruising along comfortably for most of last year, the world’s largest economy lost altitude at the start of 2025 as consumers tired, and the trade deficit ballooned on a tariff- related scramble for imports.
In the latest pivot in Trump’s trade strategy, the president is set to sign an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made vehicles from stacking on top of other levies and lessening charges on parts from overseas used to make vehicles in the US.
“Many are still calling for a recession and even lower equity levels, but we think the ‘Trump put’ is real for equities while the ‘Fed put’ is real for the economy,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“And while tops and bottoms are hard to recognize as they are happening, we think the worst is behind us.”
In corporate news, Amazon.com Inc. said it will not display the cost of US tariffs on products after the White House blasted the reported move.
Apple Inc. wants to build the iPhone in the US, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC.
General Motors Co. and JetBlue Airways Corp. pulled their outlooks.
United Parcel Service Inc. expects to cut 20,000 jobs this year and close dozens of facilities.
After the closing bell, Starbucks Corp. reported sales that fell slightly faster than expected.
Visa Inc.’s earnings beat estimates.
Snap Inc. declined to issue a sales forecast for the current period, saying it’s navigating macroeconomic “headwinds” for its advertising business.
“Looking ahead, we believe the worst-case scenarios for policy change may be in,” said Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments.
“But since uncertainty is still high in market- critical areas like business cost and revenue, and since valuations have already improved from recent market bottoms, market volatility is likely to persist.”
At HSBC Holdings Plc, a group of strategists cut their year-end S&P 500 target to 5,600 from 6,700, saying tariffs and weaker-than-expected US economic growth will pressure corporate earnings.
“We expect the market narrative will flip-flop between recession and stagflation until tariff turmoil subsides, the Fed starts easing, and/or inflationary pressures fail to build up,” strategists including Nicole Inui wrote in a note to clients.
Raymond James’ Larry Adam noted that while he’s keeping his S&P 500 target of 5,800 by the end of the year, there’s a long time between here and there.
“In the interim, I would be more cautious because I do think that you’re going to see more tangible evidence show that this economy is slowing,” he said in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York.
A robust earnings season has boosted positioning momentum in US stocks, leaving exposure levels near neutral, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Chris Montagu.
Meantime, hedge-fund managers who’ve been holding fire as tariff headlines whipsawed markets are still reluctant to place any major bets, with one big exception: shorting US stocks.
So-called market conviction, a gauge of hedge funds’ confidence in pursuing a particular investment strategy, is recovering somewhat after swooning to near its lowest in decades, according to data provided by Bob Elliott, a former top executive at Bridgewater Associates Ltd. Positioning across major asset classes — including currencies, bonds and commodities — remains weak after having fallen at the end of March into the bottom 10th percentile relative to levels since 2000.
“On the positive side, while the Trump administration has stirred up volatility, the so-called Trump Put has become more visible, with louder talk of off-ramps and trade deals lately,” said HSBC strategists Alastair Pinder and Dmitriy Leskin.
“On the flip side, recession chatter is also getting louder – and though some of it is already reflected in prices, we think it does cap the upside.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Honeywell International Inc. raised its full-year guidance for earnings per share, saying it will offset about $500 million in tariff exposure with price changes and other actions to protect its bottom line.
* Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. raised its profit outlook for the year as cruise demand continues to defy the increasingly dire situation of the wider travel market.
* Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. lowered its earnings forecast for 2025, as growing uncertainty about the US economy weighs on future travel demand.
* Kraft Heinz Co. trimmed its annual sales and profit outlook, citing worsening consumer sentiment and the cost of tariffs.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. left its full-year forecast for earnings unchanged even after reporting a stronger first quarter than analysts were expecting, citing “uncertainty in the global macro environment.”
* NXP Semiconductors NV sank after the company announced a new chief executive officer as part of its quarterly earnings report and warned that tariff threats have created “a very uncertain environment.”
* Spotify Technology SA gave a muted outlook for profit and subscriber growth in the current quarter.
* Pfizer Inc. expects to pull off two or three deals totaling as much as $15 billion this year to replenish its pipeline following the failure of its closely watched obesity pill.
* Hims & Hers Health Inc. soared after Novo Nordisk A/S said it would sell its popular weight-loss drug Wegovy for a steeply reduced price on several telehealth platforms.
* Altria Group Inc. reaffirmed its full-year profit guidance even as the Marlboro maker wrestles with weak cigarette and oral tobacco product sales.
* S&P Global Inc. said it expects to bring in less revenue than originally forecast this year, as on-again, off-again tariff policies spur market tumult and cause companies to delay debt sales.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.6%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1382
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3404
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 142.32 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $95,358.61
* Ether rose 2.1% to $1,823.72
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.17%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.50%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.48%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.9% to $60.28 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3,320.75 an ounce

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
There is no failure except in no longer trying. –Elbert Hubbard, 1856-1915.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com