April 25, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Anzac Day, Australia, New Zealand.

1959: The St. Lawrence Seaway opened to shipping. Go to article >
1974: In Portugal, the fascist Estado Novo is overthrown in a bloodless coup.  The leftist Carnation Revolution was led by military officers and supported by widespread civil resistance.

1901: First license plates issued.
1915: Battle of Gallipoli.
Ella Fitzgerald, b.1917.

‘Lost’ 2nd-century Roman fort discovered in Scotland
Archaeologists have discovered the foundations of a “lost” Roman fort in western Scotland — part of an ill-fated effort to extend the empire’s control throughout Britain. Read More.

Will Earth ever lose its moon?
The moon is creeping slowly away from Earth. So will Earth lose its moon at some point? Read More

‘Dripping’ watch has become a cult celebrity favorite.  This unique watch has a dripping shape that looks more like one of Salvador Dalí’s surrealist melting clocks than a celebrity timepiece.

French fries may be bringing you down.  Researchers found that frequent consumption of fried foods, especially fried potatoes, is linked to an increased likelihood of anxiety and depression

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Rome, Italy
Cuirassier presidential guards descend the steps of the tomb of the Unknown Warrior during a ceremony on Liberation Day, which commemorates the Italian resistance movement’s victory during the second world war
Photograph: Gregorio Borgia/AP

London, UK
A pod of the London Eye that has been transformed into a miniature version of Westminster Abbey before the coronation of King Charles III. Visitors to the capsule will have the chance to sit on the pod’s coronation chair and hold replicas of the crown jewels
Photograph: Jordan Pettitt/PA

Frankfurt, Germany
Two Canada goose chicks on the banks of the Main River
Photograph: Frank Rumpenhorst/AP
Market Closes for April 25^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1874, Guglielmo Marconi, son of an aristocratic Italian father and an Irish mother, was born in Bologna, Italy. In 1901 he sent the first radio signals across the Atlantic, ushering in the era of wireless communication.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 1.1%, or 236.87 to 20,439.87 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.6% on March 15.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11 sectors lost; 178 of 232 shares fell, while 52 rose.
Canadian National Railway Co. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.0%.
Hudbay Minerals Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.3%.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 1.7%
* The index declined 2.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 6.1% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.6% below its 52-week high on May 4, 2022 and 14.4% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.2% in the past 5 days and rose 4.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 on a trailing basis and 13.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.3t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.03% compared with 9.27% in the previous session and the average of 12.03% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -102.9457| -1.7| 6/23
Industrials | -51.2915| -1.8| 3/24
Energy | -31.4912| -0.9| 8/32
Information Technology| -21.5516| -1.6| 0/12
Materials | -10.8528| -0.4| 18/31
Consumer Discretionary| -8.6976| -1.2| 1/14
Consumer Staples | -6.6755| -0.8| 0/11
Real Estate | -3.0984| -0.6| 2/19
Health Care | -1.4967| -2.1| 1/4
Communication Services| -1.4189| -0.2| 2/3
Utilities | 2.6610| 0.3| 11/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian National | -28.0200| -4.0| 139.3| 0.5
TD Bank | -20.3800| -2.0| -44.8| -7.5
Brookfield Corp | -18.6600| -4.2| -2.9| 1.7
Franco-Nevada | 3.4230| 1.3| -31.8| 12.9
Barrick Gold | 3.6720| 1.2| -31.8| 12.6
TC Energy | 4.3850| 1.1| -59.1| 2.8
US
By Isabelle Lee, Peyton Forte and Carly Wanna
(Bloomberg) — US stocks dropped the most in two months and Treasury yields retreated after First Republic Bank’s disappointing earnings and potential assets sale rekindled worries that the banking crisis has not run its course.
The S&P 500 lost 1.6% Tuesday, with First Republic’s 49% plunge taking the lender’s shares to a record low.
Bloomberg News reported the troubled bank, which saw greater-than-expected withdrawals in the first quarter, is exploring divesting up to $100 billion of long-dated mortgages and securities as part of a
broader rescue plan.
The two-year Treasury yield tumbled to 3.94% as investors sought the safety of US government debt.
Meanwhile, tech stocks rallied in after-hours trading with Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. higher after better-than-expected earnings.
The Federal Reserve is still expected to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point when it meets next week, though signs are mounting that the American economy is starting to sputter after a year of aggressive tightening.
Data Tuesday showed consumer confidence slipped, while two regional Fed manufacturing reports underwhelmed.
“US regional banks still face headwinds, and signs of stress in the system have not fully subsided,” Ken McAtamney, portfolio manager and head of William Blair’s Global Equity team, wrote.
But despite the instability in the financial sector, “the US Federal Reserve and global central banks remain vigilant in their fight against inflation.”
Among other US companies reporting earnings Tuesday:
* UBS Group AG slid after results fell short
* Spotify Technology SA rose 5.1% after adding subscribers
* 3M Co. was little changed after announcing a restructuring push
* General Electric Co. declined 1.7% after raising forecasts
* McDonald’s Corp. was little changed after beating sales estimates
* Danaher Corp. dropped 8.8% after lowering full-year guidance

“The sugar high from the Covid stimulus has ended. Now companies are having to contend with a more challenging economic environment following a big batch of Fed rate hikes,” Kelly Bogdanova, vice president and portfolio analyst at RBC Wealth Management, said in an interview. “From our perspective, we’re staring an earnings recession in the face.”
The market is now pricing a peak for US interest rates in June, followed by a cut to below 4.5% by year end.
The 10-year Treasury yield continued its slide to 3.40% — dipping well below its 200-day moving average.
“Investors need to spend a little more time using common sense … and adjust their portfolios to the reality that a soft landing in the economy this year is a pipe dream,” wrote Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co, in a morning note.
There’s a growing consensus a recession is near, especially with signs of a credit crunch in results from First Republic and UBS, Maley said. “When was the last time a material contraction in credit did not result in a recession? The answer: Never!” he wrote.
A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar climbed.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index dropped 0.4%.
Oil fell, gold was little changed, iron ore extended a losing streak to a fifth day, and Bitcoin slid for a third day.
Key events this week:
* Australia CPI, Wednesday
* Sweden rate decision, Wednesday
* Eurozone economic, consumer confidence, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
* Bank of Japan meets on interest rates, Friday
* Euro-area GDP, Friday
* US personal income, Friday

Earnings highlights:
* Wednesday: Boeing, Meta, Hilton
* Thursday: Amazon, American Airlines, Intel, Mastercard, Southwest Airlines, Hershey, Honeywell, Barclays

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $1.0970
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.2403
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 133.51 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $27,626.28
* Ether fell 0.1% to $1,837.86
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 11 basis points to 3.38%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 12 basis points to 2.38%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 3.69%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $77.05 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,009.20 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Emily Graffeo, Robert Brand, Tassia Sipahutar, Sujata Rao and Subrat Patnaik.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Adapt or perish, now as ever, is Nature’s inexorable imperative. -H.G. Wells, 1866-1946.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com