April 18, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
April 18, 1775: Paul Rever’s Midnight Ride.
April 18, 1783: American Revolution – George Washington issues General Order announcing the end of  hostilities with Britain.
2011: Standard & Poor’s lowered its long-term outlook for the U.S. government’s fiscal health from “stable” to “negative.”

Conan O’Brien, comedian, b.1963.
Albert Einstein, physicist, d. 1955.

Imagination is more important than knowledge. -Albert Einstein.

Former pop star turns 50. See her best looks
Is 90s pop more your groove? See how this star built a stellar fashion legacy.

Caitlin Clark’s salary draws attention to gender pay gap in sports
Caitlin Clark, the first pick in the WNBA draft this week, will be paid just under $77,000 this year. The top NBA pick will make $10.5 million. Read why the gender pay gap in professional sports is far from closed.

Taylor Swift to release new album Friday
Taylor Swift’s army of fans are anxiously awaiting the release of her 11th studio album, “The Tortured Poets Department.” If history is any guide, it will likely shatter sales and chart records.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Tagulandang island, Indonesia
Authorities have closed an airport and residents fled their homes as Mount Ruang volcano erupts. A warning has been issued over the danger of falling ash and rocks, hot volcanic clouds and the possibility of a tsunami
Photograph: Hendra Ambalao/AP

New York, US
Students from the Youth America Grand Prix break the Guinness World Record for the most ballet dancers en pointe simultaneously
Photograph: John Nacion/Getty Images

Frankfurt, Germany
A gosling and its mother
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP
Market Closes for April 18^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1906, the Great Quake levelled San Francisco, wreaking $500 million in damage. One banker, A.P. Giannini, hastily drove a horse-drawn wagon to the ruined headquarters of his company, Bank of Italy, where he rummaged through the rubble, retrieving $2 million in gold, coins and securities.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.2%, or 52.39 to 21,708.44 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.5% on April 9.
Enbridge Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 8.9%.
Today, 119 of 224 shares rose, while 97 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 0.9%
* The index advanced 4.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3% below its 52-week high on April 9, 2024 and 16.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.8% in the past 5 days and fell 0.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 on a trailing basis and 14.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.44t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.93% compared with 8.38% in the previous session and the average of 8.70% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 31.9361| 1.2| 33/11
Financials | 16.2980| 0.2| 20/7
Utilities | 8.8906| 1.1| 14/1
Energy | 2.0312| 0.1| 10/31
Communication Services | 0.9465| 0.1| 3/2
Real Estate | 0.4312| 0.1| 14/7
Health Care | 0.4174| 0.6| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.2489| 0.0| 4/8
Consumer Staples | -0.4143| 0.0| 5/6
Information Technology | -2.2256| -0.1| 3/7
Industrials | -5.6743| -0.2| 11/15
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Enbridge | 11.5900| 1.7| 193.9| -2.2
TD Bank | 7.0710| 0.7| -52.5| -7.9
First Quantum Minerals | 6.4880| 8.9| 127.9| 48.3
Thomson Reuters | -2.9150| -1.3| -15.9| 7.3
Canadian Natural Resources | -3.4500| -0.4| -53.1| 21.9
Brookfield Corp | -5.8980| -1.1| 52.4| 0.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest bond market extended this month’s selloff after solid economic readings and hawkish Fed-speak reinforced speculation that interest rates will remain higher for longer.
Treasuries fell across the US curve — with two-year yields once again near the 5% mark.
When asked about the possibility of hiking, Fed Bank of New York President John Williams said that while that is “not” his baseline expectation, it’s possible, if warranted.
The S&P 500 dropped for a fifth straight session — its longest losing run since October.
“Most of the data this week show the economy is still firing on all cylinders,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. “That’s going to be a challenge for the Fed’s rate-cutting plans.”
Treasury 10-year yields rose five basis points to 4.63%.
The S&P 500 fell to almost 5,000, with its most influential group — technology — leading declines.
Netflix Inc. posted its best start to the year since 2020, attracting more new customers than anyone expected thanks to a strong slate of original programs and a crackdown on password sharing.
In addition to remarks from Fed’s Williams, his Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic said he’s comfortable keeping interest rates steady, reiterating he doesn’t think it will be appropriate to lower borrowing costs until toward the end of the year.
“Fed-speak is making us increasingly nervous,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
He added that if the two-year US yield breaks 5%, the next level to watch would be 5.2%.
In economic data, jobless claims remained subdued, consistent with a healthy job market.
Separately, the Philadelphia Fed factory index topped estimates.
While existing-home sales fell, the pace was roughly in line with the median forecast of economists.
Market-implied expectations for Fed rate cuts — which have collapsed in the past two weeks — declined further this week after Chair Jerome Powell signaled policymakers will wait longer than previously anticipated to ease policy.
An initial quarter-point reduction remains priced in for November.
The Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year with inflation remaining high, said JPMorgan Chase & Co. President Daniel Pinto.
“It may take a bit longer until they can cut rates,” Pinto said at a Semafor event in Washington, adding that the likelihood of a rate hike is “very, very low” amid widespread skepticism that inflation will ease any time soon.
The Fed isn’t in any hurry, as a rate cut that comes too early would be “painful” and probably cause a recession, he said.
The market’s biggest worry right now is inflation, which is re-accelerating and throwing cold water on the idea of any rate cuts in 2024, let alone one or two, according to Michael Landsberg, chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management.  “We are firmly in the camp of no rate cuts in 2024,” he said. “We believe investors should prepare for a higher for longer regime when it comes to both inflation and interest rates and that investment portfolios should be positioned for these dynamics for the foreseeable future.”
“With rate cuts delayed, rather than canceled, in our view, we still expect the yield on the 10-year US Treasury to end the year around 3.85%, said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Once the Fed begins cutting rates this year, the bond market will likely continue to price a sequence of further cuts into 2025 and beyond.”
While timing the market is hard, investors can more confidently add duration exposure, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists led by Mark Cabana, who recommend “going long” five-year Treasuries.
The trade is supported by “Fed unlikely to hike, risk asset sensitivity to rates and cleaner duration positioning,” they noted.

Corporate Highlights:
* Alphabet Inc. Chief Executive Officer Sundar Pichai announced changes to Google’s workplace teams structure, saying the moves will help the company develop artificial intelligence products and services faster and more efficiently.
* Micron Technology Inc., the largest US maker of computer-memory chips, is poised to get $6.1 billion in grants from the Commerce Department to help pay for domestic factory projects, part of an effort to bring semiconductor production back to American soil.
* D.R. Horton Inc. increased sales expectations for its full fiscal year as the US housing market heads into its key spring selling season.
* Alaska Air Group Inc. expects second-quarter profits will top analyst estimates, signaling that the carrier is recovering from a near-catastrophe on one of its planes that triggered the temporary grounding of a key Boeing Co. aircraft model.
* Las Vegas Sands Corp. said remodeling at an entertainment center and a hotel in Macau will crimp results this year.
* eBay Inc.’s embrace of artificial intelligence has turned the stock’s most bearish analyst into its biggest fan, with Morgan Stanley seeing a further 25% gain for the shares over the next year.
* DNA testing firm 23andMe Holding Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Anne Wojcicki said she’s considering taking the struggling company private, less than three years after it began selling shares.
* Blackstone Inc. collected more fees from big retail funds and credit strategies during the first quarter, compensating for the slower pace of deal exits.
* L’Oréal SA reported better-than-expected first-quarter sales as strength in Europe and North America helped offset a slowdown in shopping by Chinese travelers.

Key events this week:
* Japan CPI, Friday
* BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speak, Friday
* Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0644
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2437
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 154.62 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.4% to $63,518.01
* Ether rose 3.1% to $3,065.7
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.63%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.50%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.27%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,380.08 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have  a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The beginning is the most important part of the work. –Plato, c. 470-399 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com