Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
March 12, 1755: First steam engine in the US installed to pump water from a mine.
March 12, 1930: Gandhi launches the Salt March, a strategic masterclass in nonviolent mass mobilization against colonial rule.
March 12, 2009: Disgraced financier Bernard Madoff pleaded guilty in New York to pulling off perhaps the biggest swindle in Wall Street history. Go to article.
Jack Kerouac, writer, b. 1922.
James Taylor, musician, b.1948.
Charlie “Bird” Parker, musician, d. 1953.
| Russian Revolution gold coin hoard worth over $500,000 discovered during house construction |
Archaeologists excavating the foundation of a historic house in Russia discovered 409 coins buried before the revolution in 1917. Read More.
| The world is being held hostage by its reliance on oil. How can we break free from the fossil fuel? |
Like whale blubber, oil as a dominant source of energy will gradually be phased out over the next decades. Here’s what that transition may look like. Read More.
| Man in Czech Republic accidentally finds Bronze Age spearhead mold in his backyard |
A stone being used in the foundation of an old barn in the Czech Republic turned out to be a Bronze Age spearhead mold. Read More.
| Scientists squished microbes into a steel ‘sandwich’ — and made a profound discovery about life in space |
"Extremophile" bacteria could survive asteroid impacts that are strong enough to launch them into space, suggesting that life could travel between planetary bodies. Read More.
| AI just verified a proof that earned one of math’s most prestigious prizes. Math will never be the same |
OPINION | The introduction of AI into mathematics represents a seismic shift in what it means to do math. Read More.
| A ‘mass migration’ of stars from the Milky Way’s center could explain why there’s life in our solar system |
The Gaia telescope spotted more than 6,000 sunlike stars, all of which appear to have migrated from the galaxy’s center more than 4 billion years ago. Read More.
General tied to UFO claims is missing
The FBI has joined the search for a retired US Air Force major general who commanded a base long rumored to house extraterrestrial debris.
A nightmare for baseball’s Dream Team
Team USA – with its roster of stars like Aaron Judge – is on the verge of one of the most embarrassing moments in World Baseball Classic history.
‘Ghost’ elephants
For decades there were rumors of a mythic herd of night-roaming elephants in Angola. After years of searching, this explorer found them.
Record (and windshield) breaking hail
This week’s severe weather across the Central US spawned incredibly large hail, including one piece in Illinois that measured six inches wide — which may be a record. Watch here.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Cologne, Germany
People walk through the Yayoi Kusama art installation Infinity Mirrored Room at Museum Ludwig
Photograph: Martin Meissner/AP
Bangkok, Thailand
The sun sets behind Wat Saket’s golden apex
Photograph: Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters
London, UK
The sculpture Back to Venice by Lynn Chadwick is due to be auctioned at Christie’s, with an estimated value of ?1m-?1.5m.
Photograph: Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing/Getty Images
Market Closes for March 12th , 2026
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
46677.85 | -739.42 |
| -1.56% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6672.62 | -103.18 |
| -1.52% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22311.98 | -404.15 |
| -1.78% | ||
| TSX | 32840.60 | -279.23 |
| -0.84% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 54452.96 | -572.41 |
| -1.04% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25716.76 | -182.00 |
| -0.70% | ||
| SEN SEX | 76034.42 | -829.29 |
| -1.08% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 10305.15 | -48.62 |
| -0.47% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.527 | 3.484 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.955 | 3.934 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.2609 | 4.2296 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.8816 | 4.8785 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7334 | 0.7354 |
| US $ |
1.3635 | 1.3596 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 0.6369 | 1.5703 |
| US $ |
0.8682 | 1.1516 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
5182.40 | 5209.70 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 95.73 | 87.25 |
Market Commentary:
| On this day in 1956, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, less than a year-and-a-half after crossing the 400 mark, broke through 500 for the first time. |
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.8%, or 279.23 to 32,840.60 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Feb. 12.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 161 of 217 shares fell, while 56 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.3%.
Goeasy Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 13.9%.
Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 3.6%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.7%
* The index advanced 34% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.9% below its 52-week high on March 2, 2026 and 47.7% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.3% in the past 5 days and rose 1.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6 on a trailing basis and 17 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$5.23t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 20.65% compared with 20.54% in the previous session and the average of 19.06% over the past month
Index Points
Financials | -144.3399| -1.4| 3/21
Materials | -75.0518| -1.1| 6/50
Industrials | -73.0295| -2.1| 5/24
Information Technology| -47.2679| -1.9| 1/9
Consumer Discretionary| -5.5397| -0.5| 2/7
Real Estate | -5.0396| -1.1| 2/17
Communication Services| -5.0101| -0.8| 0/5
Health Care | -1.8980| -2.2| 1/3
Consumer Staples | 1.5495| 0.1| 3/7
Utilities | 7.0034| 0.6| 9/5
Energy | 69.3894| 1.2| 24/13
Shopify | -34.4500| -2.3| 1.7| -22.2
Brookfield Corp | -34.2700| -4.1| 29.2| -16.2
TD Bank | -24.5500| -1.6| -5.3| -0.9
Suncor | 19.8200| 3.0| -15.0| 33.7
Nutrien | 22.6800| 6.2| 109.8| 35.0
Canadian Natural Resources | 28.9800| 3.1| 59.5| 42.3
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange was down for a second-straight day Thursday, as investors turned cautious amid uncertainty over how long the Middle East war will go on.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index lost another 279.23 points, or 0.8%, to 32,840.60, adding to the near 150 points fall of yesterday..
Still today’s losses in Canada were about half of those recorded on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices in the United States.
That is likely down to gains in Energy, while there is talk of Canada’s natural resources becoming "ever more appealing" to its allies given circumstances around the Gulf turmoil and domestic trade data was seen to show sectoral tariffs imposed by the United States are "by far the most impactful for Canada, and have not been impacted by recent changes".
Most sectors were lower, led by Base Metals down 2.8% as gold traded lower Thursday while the dollar continues to rise because the U.S.-Israel war on Iran is disrupting markets.
Gold for April delivery was last seen down US$82.60 to US$5,096.50 per ounce.
Industrials and Health Care were also both down at least 2%.
But Energy was up 2.1% as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil surged again Thursday with traders shrugging at the largest-ever release of strategic reserves by International Energy Agency (IEA) members while Iran stepped up attacks on tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf with the United States unable to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the second week of its war on Iran.
WTI crude oil for April delivery closed up US$8.48 to settle at US$95.73 per barrel, while May Brent crude was up US$7.15 to US$99.13 after earlier touching US$101.59.
National Bank published a note looking at ‘The Iran Conflict: Scenarios and Geopolitical Impact’.
The bank concluded the most likely outcome is that the regime there survives in exchange for strategic concessions.
However, it noted, this carries the risk of long-term instability and repeated U.S. military intervention.
The conflict also reinforces the global focus on supply-chain security, it said, before adding: "If the region remains unstable over the long term, this could weaken the United States’ geopolitical standing and make it harder to form alliances in other areas."
National Bank went on to say in this environment Canada’s natural resources and its distance from major geopolitical flashpoints become "ever more appealing" to its allies.
These considerations, together with U.S. concerns about higher costs, could facilitate a deal in the upcoming trade talks between Canada, the United States and Mexico, particularly in key sectors such as aluminum, steel, and fertilizer production, the bank added.
Still on the subject of trade, data released earlier today showed Canada’s trade deficit widened to $3.6 billion in January on export weakness.
But within the overall data were some signs that Canada may not be as badly off in its trade relations with the U.S. as some might have feared.
Breaking today’s trade data down, Scotiabank noted the share of Canadian exports bound for the U.S. is gradually trending lower, averaging 76% in 2024 and 72% in 2025, and coming in at 68% in January 2026.
The bank noted this has been driven by a decline in exports to the United States and increasing exports to other regions, mainly Europe.
In January, exports to the U.S. fell 3.8% m/m and were down 13.7% compared to 2024.
Exports to other countries fell 6.5% m/m but were 28% higher than 2024.
"Though," Scotiabank said, "much of this has been driven by elevated overseas exports of gold."
The bank noted a similar dynamic is playing out on the import side, as the share of Canadian imports from the U.S. is down to 56% from 62% in 2024.
According to Scotiabank, Canada continues to benefit from a "relatively" low effective tariff rate on total exports, at 3.1%, the bank’s latest estimate, based on pre-tariff trade flows, of the increase in tariffs since end-2024.
The low rate is thanks to most of Canada’s trade with the U.S. continuing on a tariff-free basis under CUSMA.
Scotiabank noted this is down from 4.5% last month due to the country-specific U.S. IEEPA tariffs being replaced by a 10% global tariff, while it also noted the reported average actual duties paid on U.S. goods imports from Canada was 3.1% for the second month in a row, down from close to 4% six months ago.
"This should continue to trend lower through February and March," Scotiabank said, while noting the proportion of Canadian goods imported into the U.S. facing tariffs has settled around 10%.
Scotiabank said the U.S. trade deficit is back close to its pre-tariff level.
It noted U.S. trade saw significant volatility early in 2025 in response to the tariffs, before stabilizing later in the year.
In January, U.S. exports rose 5.5% and imports fell 0.7%, resulting in a decline in the trade deficit to US$55 billion, down from around US$70 billion in 2024.
In conclusion, Scotiabank noted tariffs and uncertainty continue despite the U.S. Supreme Court ruling.
While the U.S. IEEPA tariffs were struck down last month, a new temporary global tariff of 10% was immediately implemented to replace them, with a promised lift to 15%, and work is underway to design the longer-term replacements, which could be higher. "The new global tariff is lower than the 35% tariff on non-CUSMA-compliant goods that Canada previously faced, though the vast majority of our trade has been compliant and thus exempt from those tariffs.
The sectoral tariffs are by far the most impactful for Canada, and have not been impacted by recent changes," the bank added.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A renewed oil spike stoked fears the war in Iran will further crimp energy supplies and fuel inflation, spurring a slide in stocks, which were also hit by signs of distress in the $1.8 trillion private-credit market.
Brent closed above $100 for the first time since 2022, with the Strait of Hormuz blockage choking off flows through the, trade artery.
The S&P 500 fell 1.5% to the lowest since November.
Banks sank as redemption requests from private-credit funds forced Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater LLC to cap withdrawals.
Deutsche Bank AG flagged a $30 billion exposure to the sector.
A gauge of mega caps approached the threshold of a correction.
In late hours, Adobe Inc. gave a tepid outlook and said its chief will resign.
Short-dated Treasuries slid as traders ceased to fully price in a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026.
More broadly, global bonds erased this year’s gains.
The dollar hit an almost two-month high.
Gold fell.
President Donald Trump and Iran’s new supreme leader both struck defiant tones on the 13th day of the war, offering little relief to energy markets despite fresh US efforts to curb oil prices.
The US president said in a social-media post that preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons and threatening the Middle East is “of far greater interest and importance to me” than the cost of oil.
Mojtaba Khamenei noted the Islamic Republic would seek to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
“The number one issue facing the markets right now is obviously the war,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“The conflict in the Middle East is not abating. This caused crude oil to spike. We also have the issue of the growing stress on the credit markets.”
The Trump administration plans to waive a century-old maritime law that requires American ships be used to transport goods between US ports as it seeks to blunt surging oil prices, Bloomberg News reported.
The US Navy could start escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of March, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned that oil prices could exceed the 2008 peak if flows via Hormuz remain depressed through March.
Brent rallied to a high of $147.50 that year.
The Iran war is causing unprecedented turmoil in oil markets, hitting 7.5% of global supply and an even bigger swath of exports, the International Energy Agency said.
“As long as the bottlenecks around the Strait continue, oil prices will remain elevated, raising the risk that the conflict makes its mark on the economy,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
While some sort of positive news is always possible at any moment, the action in crude is suggesting this is going to drag on for some time, said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG.
“We would continue to try and look through those near-term headlines, as we still see the conflict/closure as lasting weeks/months and not changing the forward outlook meaningfully,” said Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
If history is any guide, retreating from markets during periods of heightened volatility is unlikely the best strategy over the long term, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“But we believe holding sufficient liquidity to cover foreseeable expenses can help investors avoid forced selling in the event of a market drawdown,” she said.
The latest economic reports haven’t been enough to drive the focus away from the war.
Still, traders are bracing for Friday’s inflation data: the Fed’s preferred price gauge.
“The risks to the data could be asymmetric,” said Kyle Rodda at Capital.com.
“A benign print will be business as usual.
A hot print will raise fears of rising inflation going into the inflationary impacts of an energy crisis.”
Trump said on social media that Fed Chair Jerome Powell “should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting!”
With the Fed expected to hold rates steady next week, investors will focus on any eventual changes to its outlook.
“The most hawkish outcome would be if the Fed removed its easing bias from the statement, while the median projection shifted from one cut this year to no change,” said Stephen Brown at Capital Economics.
Corporate Highlights:
* Energy producers climbed while CF Industries Holdings Inc. and Mosaic Co. paced a surge in fertilizer stocks as disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz tighten supply. Airlines sank on worries about higher fuel prices.
* Blue Owl Capital Inc. defended its recent sale of $1.4 billion of loans from three of its funds, arguing the transaction contained no backstops or hidden incentives, as the asset manager remains a primary target of bets on a private-credit reckoning.
* Tesla Inc. received government clearance to convert its investment in Elon Musk’s xAI into a small stake in SpaceX ahead of the rocket maker’s planned IPO.
* Bumble Inc. soared on an upbeat outlook and the unveiling of a new AI-powered assistant designed to act as a personal matchmaker.
* Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. forecast full-year sales growth across the company’s namesake brand stores and the newly acquired Foot Locker chain.
* Dollar General Corp. forecast sales in-line with analyst estimates, slowing momentum for a company that had been exceeding expectations.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1511
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3341
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 159.38 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $70,248.04
* Ether fell 0.3% to $2,063.87
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.27%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.96%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced nine basis points to 4.77%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced nine basis points to 3.74%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 10% to $96.33 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 2.3% to $5,057.31 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
Never confuse a single defeat with a final defeat. – F. Scott Fitzgerald, 1896-1940.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP?, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828