Dear Friends,

Tangents: Groundhog Day today. Candlemas. Imbolc: Wiccan.

“If Candlemas Day be fair and bright, winter will have another flight. If Candlemas Day be cloud and rain, winter is gone and will not come again.” -Old English proverb.

February 2, 1848: The Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo is signed, ending the Mexican-American War ad radically reshaping North America’s borders.

February 2, 1995: The San Francisco 49ers became the first team to win five Super Bowl titles when they beat the San Diego Chargers 49-26 in Super Bowl XXIX. Go to article.

James Joyce, writer, b. 1882.

Ayn Rand, writer, b. 1905.

W.H. Auden, poet, b.1907.

I love reading the Metropolitan Diary section in the NY Times on Sundays, and this entry from yesterday’s paper was a reason to smile:

Dear Diary:

In February 1997 I traveled to New York from Germany to spend a week with my friend Sophia, who lived in Forest Hills.

As I prepared to head out for first day of exploring the city on my own, Sophia gave me lots of advice about being careful.
Most importantly, she said, I should not carry my money all in one place.

“Distribute it all over your body,” she said.

So that’s what I did before going off on my adventure.

Stepping out of Penn Station and onto 34th Street, I looked up at the glass and steel towers, and the Empire State Building peeking out over them.

I felt someone tap me on the shoulder from behind.

Oh, god, I thought. I am being mugged in broad daylight.

I turned around and saw a tall man who was trying hard not to smile too openly. He looked toward my boots.

“Your money’s sticking out.” he said. -Claudia Shapiro.

More than 43,000 years ago, Neanderthals spent centuries collecting animal skulls in a cave; but archaeologists aren’t sure why

Neanderthals repeatedly returned to the cave to store horned animal skulls, revealing this cultural tradition was transmitted over time. Read More.

James Webb telescope solves mystery of ‘forever young’ vampire stars from the dawn of time

Astronomers have discovered how "forever young" stars stay blue and bright despite being almost as old as the universe. Read More.

New triple-drug treatment stops pancreatic cancer in its tracks, a mouse study finds

By targeting three key growth pathways at once, researchers eliminated pancreatic tumors in multiple mouse models and prevented the cancer from returning, a promising step toward overcoming treatment resistance. Read More.

Watch awkward Chinese humanoid robot lay it all down on the dance floor

The model demonstrated remarkable precision, stability and speed across a highly complex dance routine. Read More.

The quest to ‘improve the future of mankind’
This engineer developed a method to make regenerative tissue, bringing hope to breast cancer survivors around the world.

Teen sets new record for fastest mile by a junior athlete
A 16-year-old from New Zealand has set a new world record for the fastest mile run by an athlete under 18. Prepare to be impressed.

Astronauts share their favorite space films
CNN asked retired astronauts about their favorite space movies — and the lineup is nothing short of stellar.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Venice, Italy

Revellers sail their decorated boats on the Grand Canal during the city’s traditional carnival parade
Photograph: Stefano Rellandini/AFP/Getty Images

Barcelona, Spain

Atzeries the fire beast sets off its flying sparks during the Foguerons festival that celebrates Saint Antony
Photograph: Matthias Oesterle/Shutterstock

Ontario, Canada

Tourists take in the frozen scenery at the Niagara Falls
Photograph: Carlos Osorio/Reuters

Market Closes for January 2nd, 2026

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	49407.66	+515.19
		+1.05%
S&P 500	6976.44	+37.41
		+0.54%
NASDAQ	23592.11	+130.29
		+0.56%
TSX	32183.88	+260.36
		+0.82%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	54003.97	+1348.79
		+2.56%
HANG SENG	26775.57	-611.54
		-2.23%
SENSEX	81666.46	+943.52
		+1.17%
FTSE 100*	10341.56	+118.02
		+1.15%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.429	3.417
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.878	3.869
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.2734	4.2355
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.9086	4.8725

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7316	0.7342
US $	1.3668	1.3618

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	0.6198	1.6132
US $	0.8472	1.1803

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	4714.75	5405.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.14	65.21

Market Commentary:

On this day in 1869, in the first warning sign of the year’s coming market panic, a New York newspaper reported an auditor found trustees of several city churches had used millions in ecclesiastical trust funds to speculate in stocks. Several parishes had taken out mortgages on their church buildings to answer margin calls.

Canada

By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.8% at 32,183.88 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.1% on Jan. 5 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 3.3%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 136 of 218 shares rose, while 81 fell.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
Aritzia Inc. had the largest increase, rising 6.5%.
Insights
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.7% below its 52-week high on Jan. 26, 2026 and 44.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.7% in the past 5 days and rose 0.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 19.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$5.06t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 13.63% compared with 13.54% in the previous session and the average of 9.62% over the past month
Index Points
Financials | 177.1302| 1.7| 22/2
Industrials | 39.8825| 1.2| 23/6
Materials | 35.5978| 0.6| 33/23
Consumer Staples | 30.4991| 3.0| 10/0
Consumer Discretionary | 18.8572| 1.9| 9/0
Information Technology | 12.4420| 0.5| 3/6
Real Estate | 2.0249| 0.4| 15/4
Health Care | 1.1978| 1.5| 3/1
Utilities | -0.6165| -0.1| 7/7
Communication Services | -1.5751| -0.2| 3/2
Energy | -55.0686| -1.1| 8/30
RBC | 37.1700| 1.7| -29.1| -1.5
Brookfield Corp | 24.9000| 2.7| -13.3| 1.1
CIBC | 24.6000| 3.0| 11.5| 4.2
Constellation | Software | -8.1720| -2.3| 80.1| -25.7
Canadian Natural | Resources | -10.4800| -1.4| -63.1| 7.4
Cameco | -12.4700| -2.4| -7.3| 30.7

MT Newswires:
(Adds BMO Economics commentary in paragraph eight)
Canada’s main stock market on Monday recovered nearly a quarter of last Friday’s losses amid some renewed bargain buying, but gains on the resources-heavy Toronto Stock Exchange were capped due to deflating commodity prices and pessimism over the economy as economists continue to pick holes in last Friday’s GDP data, with National Bank saying it highlighted that "time is of the essence" in terms of curing an ailing manufacturing sector.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 260.36 points, or 0.8%, to 32,183.88, with sectors mixed.
Among gainers were Base Metals, up near 2%, Financials, up 1.7%, Health Care, up 1.25%. and Industrials, up 1.2%.
But the Battery Metals Index dropped more than 10% and Energy was down near 1%.
The TSX on Friday closed out the month of January with an unexpected bang, falling close to 1,100 points or 3.3%, with profit taking one of the factors after the index had set 10 record closes over the course of the month leading up to that.
Of commodities, gold prices continued to weaken on Monday following Friday’s 11% drop, but it had somewhat recovered from an overnight sell off in Asian markets even as the dollar rose.
Gold for March delivery was last seen down $62.40 to US$4,682.70, up from overnight lows of US$4,423.20.
Also, West Texas Intermediate closed sharply lower Monday as geopolitical risk eased after the United States and Iran agreed to talks over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, easing concerns the Trump Administration would attack the OPEC+ member.
WTI crude oil for March delivery closed down $3.07 to settle at US$62.14, while April Brent crude was down US$3.21 to US$66.11.
National Bank chief economist Stefane Marion today noted data on Friday showed Canadian real GDP stalled in November, driven by another sharp drop in manufacturing output, which fell to its lowest level since 2013 outside the pandemic slump.
Marion said while many will be quick to blame the U.S. president, the reality is that Canada’s manufacturing sector has been in recession since May 2023, the longest such stretch in at least a generation, with data beginning in 1997.
This, he added, stands in stark contrast to the U.S, where factory GDP is now 24% higher than in 2013.
"A divergence that is indefensible for a country that boasts preferential market access to more than 1.5 billion consumers through its network of trade agreements."
According to Marion, Canada’s manufacturing "malaise" reflects domestic policy failures, notably excessive regulation and persistent uncertainty around the taxonomy for natural gas and electricity, critical inputs for industrial processes.
Marion said accelerated depreciation in the last federal budget was necessary, but National Bank doubts it will be sufficient to revive a sector whose share of GDP has collapsed to a record low 8.3%.
He added: "Greater clarity around CUSMA would undoubtedly help, but policymakers must also dismantle the home-grown barriers preventing Canada from transforming its own resources domestically. Time is of the essence."
BMO Capital Markets chief executive Douglas Porter in an overnight note released at the close of trade said that while Canada’s economy has managed to grind out some modest growth over the past year, the manufacturing sector has not been so fortunate. "Hobbled" by "hefty" U.S. tariffs on autos and metals, output in the sector has dropped by nearly 5% in the past year, he noted.
"That’s a big divergence from the U.S. factory sector, which had expanded by roughly 2% since late 2024.
To be sure, the U.S. manufacturing has been far from booming, although the pop in January’s ISM is an encouraging development.
But the wide divergence between factory output in the U.S. and Canada over the past 12 months is perhaps the most vivid illustration of the trade war’s toll on Canada," Porter added.
US

By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks climbed after solid factory data bolstered optimism about Corporate America while losses in gold and silver moderated after a dramatic rout. Bonds fell.
The dollar saw its biggest two-day gain since April.
The S&P 500 closed near its all-time highs, with economically sensitive sectors leading the way as manufacturing activity expanded the most since 2022.
The Russell 2000 index of small firms rose 1%. While gold dropped, it pared an earlier plunge.
Oil slumped as geopolitical premiums faded after President Donald Trump said Washington is talking with Iran.
Following nearly a year of contraction, the demand-related spike in factory activity is welcome news.
Sustained growth would help provide reassurance that manufacturing is on the mend after languishing the past three years.
“Manufacturing activity seems to be emerging from a cold winter,” said Brian Jacobsen at Annex Wealth Management.
“We’ve seem signs of life before, only for manufacturing to dip again, but with new orders growing, maybe this revival is real.”
The report suggests the Federal Reserve could remain on hold for an extended period as the central bank has successfully reinvigorated the manufacturing sector, according to Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Asset Management.
“This development is fundamentally positive for corporate earnings, benefiting both US stocks and global equities with exposure to US growth momentum,” he said.
“In the near term, it reinforces the ‘Goldilocks’ narrative of solid growth with contained inflation.”
Following the manufacturing data, traders slightly reduced bets on rate cuts from the Fed, which last week paused reductions. Money markets show the next cut coming in July.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the January jobs report on Friday as scheduled due to the partial government shutdown.
The S&P 500 added 0.5%.
A gauge of tech mega caps barely budged.
Walt Disney Co. sank after a tepid forecast.
In late hours, Palantir Technologies Inc. gave a bullish revenue outlook.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose four basis points to 4.28%.
The dollar added 0.3%.
Bitcoin climbed about 2%.
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rose to 52.6 from 47.9.
Readings greater than 50 indicate expansion, and the latest figure topped all projections in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
“The surge in the ISM Manufacturing Index in January suggests that after years of malaise, perhaps the manufacturing sector might be turning a corner,” said Alexandra Brown at Capital Economics.
“While the headline index is still at a level that historically has been consistent with weak sub 2% growth, growth has been stronger than implied by the index for the past three years.”
Despite the optimistic survey results, the commentary by survey respondents remained downbeat, she noted.
“The surprisingly strong ISM Manufacturing survey this morning caused a selloff in Treasuries,” said Mark Streiber at FHN Financial.
“But featured survey responses and the Institute for Supply Management’s caveat take the wind out of January manufacturing index’s sails.”
To Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets, the move in Treasury yields is on the verge of opening the door for buyers to come in.
“We maintain that a move back to last week’s peak of 4.30% will be an attractive entry point to bring in sidelined investors awaiting a dip-buying opportunity,” he said.
Wall Street also kept a close eye on precious metals, which clawed back some losses after another heavy selloff in Asian trading hours, as traders took stock of the abrupt unwinding of a record-breaking rally.
“Commodity price action is more about positioning shakeout of weak or leveraged hands than a change in the fundamental story,” said Darrell Cronk at Wells Fargo.
“It’s a market to watch for vulnerabilities and extremes.”
Gold and silver plummeted Friday after Trump said he’d nominate Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair.
Markets see Warsh as more inclined than other candidates to fight against rising price pressures.
That stance may translate into monetary policy aiding the dollar, eroding the so-called debasement trade that had caused gold to soar.
“Hawkish perceptions on Warsh appointment still linger,” said Cronk.
“We expect Warsh to support a more dovish stance with difficulty shrinking the Fed balance sheet of any materiality. We still believe two interest-rate cuts for 2026 are in the offing.”
Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic says he didn’t project any interest-rate cuts for 2026.
“For me, I didn’t have any,” he said at an event hosted by the Rotary Club of Atlanta, referring to Fed’s projections published in December.
“We have so much momentum in the economy that we need to keep our policy rate in a mildly restrictive stance.”
“The return of ‘Buy America’ sentiment is poised to continue weighing on precious metals’ performance on balance,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
He bets that gold and silver are likely to decline further following a ferocious rally that was initially sparked by fundamentals but has since detached from the driving themes of “Sell America” and a focus on relatively accommodative global central banks that enable excessive fiscal deficits and generate currency debasement.
The dramatic movement in precious metals served as a reminder that emotion remains a driver of investor decision making, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
He notes that volatility is showing up in some surprising places at the same time that gold and silver are behaving more like “speculative trades” than safe havens.
“The same investors who chased Bitcoin last year rotated into precious metals looking for the next big return, and now those trades are unwinding,” he said.
“It’s a barbell market — sharp moves at the extremes — while diversified equity portfolios are still holding up, which tells you this is more about positioning and sentiment than a broad move away from risk.”
With earnings season is in full swing, Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds at Glenmede noted that after strong earnings results in 2025, that momentum is expected to continue into 2026 for most equity classes.
Robust earnings and well-behaved inflation should counter geopolitical and other risks, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Mislav Matejka, who see more broadening in equities this year, with a constructive view on cyclicals, value and small caps.
Corporate America’s earnings outlook for 2026 remains solid, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
Of the S&P 500 members that have posted 2026 earnings-per-share forecasts, more than half have guided above analyst expectations, exceeding a historical average of 40%, strategist Ben Snider said.
Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson see an opportunity to add exposure to consumer discretionary stocks trading at cheaper prices, saying they’re poised for a rebound amid healthy household balance-sheets.
If history is any guide, the S&P 500’s advance last month implies a high likelihood that US stocks are in for anotherpositive year.
Since 1945, whenever the gauge rose in January, it posted an average return of 16.2% for the full year, said Sam Stovall at CFRA Research, citing the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
And since 1990, he noted that following a positive January, the S&P 500 recorded a 12-month price gain of 13.2% — while the top three sectors outpaced the market.
Last month, consumer staples, energy, and industrials led the way.
“The S&P 500 closed January with a modest 1.4% gain, which carries bullish implications for the rest of the year.
However, mid-term election years are often less robust, supporting our own modest expectations for a ‘rotational bull market, with a lowercase ‘b’,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
Johnson noted that while February brings a seasonal slowdown in market returns, investors should not mistake a seasonal pause for a change in trend.
“The major indices are likely to ‘back and fill’ around their 50-day moving averages as this ‘rotational bull market’ remains intact,” he added.

Corporate Highlights:
* Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the company’s proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was “never a commitment” and that the company would consider any funding rounds “one at a time.”
* Elon Musk is in advanced talks to combine Space Exploration Technologies Corp. with xAI, according to people familiar with the matter, underscoring how the billionaire’s artificial intelligence ambitions have grown too costly for any one of his entities to shoulder alone.
* Walt Disney Co., the world’s biggest entertainment company, gave a tepid forecast for growth in the current period and the market awaits news on who will be its new leader.
* Boeing Co. and General Electric Co. uncovered a potential durability issue with a seal on the engine that powers the US plane maker’s 777X aircraft, and are studying the next steps, people familiar with the matter said.
* Tyson Foods Inc.’s first-quarter profits benefited from higher beef pricing and healthy chicken demand, even as the company continues to struggle with pressures from a severe cattle shortage.
* Devon Energy Corp. agreed to acquire Coterra Energy Inc. for about $21.4 billion in stock to create one of the world’s biggest shale companies as dwindling drilling sites spur producers to consolidate.
* Intercontinental Exchange Inc. won approval to operate a clearinghouse for US Treasuries, becoming the latest provider of the service under new regulations for the world’s largest debt market.
* Vanguard Group has unleashed another round of fee cuts across its lineup of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, further tightening the screws on an industry already known for its low costs.
* Fifth Third Bancorp Chief Executive Officer Tim Spence said the firm is closely monitoring collateral after lenders were burned by the collapse of Tricolor Holdings.
* Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth heaped praise on Jeff Bezos- backed Blue Origin in a visit to the space venture’s facility, recruiting another billionaire in his effort to reform government weapons buying and pressure traditional defense contractors.
* Shares of AstraZeneca Plc, the UK’s biggest drugmaker, started trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday following a listing upgrade to replace its American Depositary Receipts that were on Nasdaq.
* Eldorado Gold Corp. agreed to buy copper-focused Foran Mining Corp. for C$3.8 billion ($2.8 billion), the latest industry tie- up as miners seek to ramp up metals production after a massive price rally over the past year.
* Air India Ltd. grounded a Boeing 787-8 aircraft after the pilot flagged a possible defect related to its fuel control switch, the airline said in a statement.
* Porsche AG is considering shelving an electric sports car line to cut costs that have ballooned due its overly ambitious EV bet, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Vista Energy SAB, one of the top drillers in Argentina’s burgeoning shale patch, agreed to acquire oil fields in the country’s Vaca Muerta basin from Equinor ASA.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1%
* Disney fell 7.4%
* Oracle fell 2.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1792
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3667
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 155.58 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $77,902.82
* Ether rose 1.4% to $2,320
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.87%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.51%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.57%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.91%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.5% to $62.28 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 4.9% to $4,656.20 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

All mankind is divided into three classes: those that are immovable, those that are moveable, and those that move. –Benjamin Franklin, 1706-1790.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP?, CIM, CIWM

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808

(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)

Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895

Fax: 778.430.5828

www.carolannsteinhoff.com

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