Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday. Full moon this weekend.

January 30, 1933: Adolph Hitler is appointed Chancellor of Germany, a pivotal political turning point in 20th-century history. He campaigned on hardline nationalism, anti-immigration rhetoric, and promises to restore economic strength and national pride.

January 30, 1948: Indian political and spiritual leader Mahatma Gandhi was murdered by a Hindu extremist. Go to article.

January 30, 1972: Bloody Sunday, Northern Ireland.

Franklin D. Roosevelt, 32nd President of the USA, b. 1882.

Youyou discovered the malaria drug “artemisinin” after reading a 1,600-year-old Chinese medical text and realizing the herb had to be extracted cold, not boiled. That insight paved the way for a treatment estimated to have saved tens of millions of lives.

5,000-year-old rock art from ancient Egypt depicts ‘terrifying’ conquest of the Sinai PeninsulaArchaeologists have discovered 5,000-year-old rock art in the Sinai Desert that depicts ancient Egypt’s brutal conquest of the region.

‘It’s going to crack’
A spacecraft set to carry humans to the moon has some experts worried.

Iran’s internet blackout
The Iranian regime is planning to "retire" access to the internet, according to experts, who warn Iran is entering "a new age of digital isolation."

Chinese video game traps player in violent virtual scam center
This new video game attempts to show players what it’s like to be trapped in a criminal underworld.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Berlin, Germany

A woman from Hong Kong visits the Holocaust memorial on the eve of the International Holocaust Memorial Day in Berlin.
Photograph: Markus Schreiber/AP

Melbourne, Australia

Belarus’s Aryna Sabalenka serves to Iva Jovic of the US during their quarter-final at the Australian Open in Melbourne Park
Photograph: James Ross/EPA

A male northern cardinal fluffs up his feathers in Nyack, New York, US, during a major winter storm that left eight people dead across the state
Photograph: Mike Segar/Reuters
Market Closes for January 29th, 2026

International Markets

Bonds

Commodities

Market Commentary:

Canada

By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 3.3%, or 1,092.61 to 31,923.52 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 4.7% on April 4.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 161 of 218 shares fell, while 55 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline,decreasing 7.7%.
Novagold Resources Inc. had the largest drop, falling 19.9%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss two times. The next day, it declined after both occasions
* This month, the index rose 0.7%
* So far this week, the index fell 3.7%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended April 4
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.5% below its 52-week high on Jan. 26, 2026 and 43.6% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 20.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$5.23t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 13.54% compared with 8.37% in the previous session and the average of 9.54% over the past month
Index Points
Materials | -732.7598| -10.5| 3/52
Information Technology| -151.6146| -5.6| 1/9
Financials | -86.1752| -0.8| 7/17
Energy | -71.0119| -1.3| 11/27
Industrials | -43.3470| -1.3| 6/23
Consumer Staples | -9.7603| -0.9| 1/9
Consumer Discretionary| -8.0878| -0.8| 2/7
Real Estate | -0.4210| -0.1| 9/10
Health Care | -0.1417| -0.2| 1/2
Utilities | 3.1200| 0.3| 10/4
Communication Services| 7.5880| 1.2| 4/1
Shopify | -127.0000| -7.7| 64.3| -19.2
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | -110.3000| -10.8| 81.5| 11.2
Barrick Mining | -93.7400| -11.3| 57.4| 4.1
Brookfield |Renewable Partners | 3.7030| 6.0| 122.3| 9.5
Waste Connections | 4.2900| 1.1| 12.1| -5.4
BCE | 5.4080| 2.4| 18.7| 7.5

MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange crashed on Friday, losing most of the more than 1,300 points it had gathered while setting 10 record closes in January, the slump reflecting economic concern as GDP stagnated in November after contracting 0.3% in October and also reflecting deflated commodity prices, just as Rosenberg Research published a ‘Technical Analysis’ of them.
The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 1,092,61 points, or 3.3%, at 31,923.52, with most sectors lower, led by Base Metals, down more than 7%, and Information Technology, down 3.7%.
But Telecom was up by more than 1%, and there were modest gains for Health Care and Utilities.
After a near-continuous upward rise from last April’s lows, the TSX "finally broke stride" this week, BMO Capital Markets chief economist Douglas Porter said in his regular ‘Talking Points’ note.
He noted while the TSX did reach a record high on Wednesday, the swift reversal in gold, as well as a few specific company issues, prompted a sharp 4% pullback.
Porter added: "The broader issue for the market, and certainly for the economy, is the ongoing frictions on the trade front, which have only gathered momentum recently.
Serving as a reminder, export volumes fell 3.7% in November, widening the merchandise trade deficit to $2.2 billion.
Gold flows have been heavily swaying the data in the past year, with precious metals rising to a massive 13% share of exports the prior month before retreating.
Extracting these metals from the data (both exports and imports) would leave Canada with a trade deficit of around $7 billion in recent months compared with a pre-pandemic norm of around $4 billion.
So, while the run in gold has provided a nice boost to exports (and previously for the TSX), it is masking a much less friendly picture beneath the surface."
Canada’s economy, Porter said, is "a mixed bag", with cautious consumers, a soft job market, but without the solid GDP.
He noted the marquee economic release revealed output was flat in November and likely up only 0.1% in December, thus pointing to a possible small contraction in Q4.
Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell off a four-month high Friday as geopolitical tensions eased with Iran saying it is prepared for talks with the United States, and President Donald Trump adding he is also ready for talks over Iran’s nuclear program.
WTI crude oil for March delivery was down $0.21 to settle at US$65.21 per barrel, while March Brent crude was steady at US$70.71.
Gold retreated from a record high late afternoon Friday, falling back below US$5,000 as the U.S. dollar rose following a report that showed U.S. wholesale prices rose more than expected in December and traders moved to cut risk.
Gold for March delivery was last seen down $494.00 to US$4,860.80 per ounce after closing at a record a day earlier, as risk assets were broadly lower, with U.S. and Canadian stock markets also lower.
Morningstar earlier this week noted "investor sentiment towards gold could be a key to the performance of Canada’s stock market in 2026".
This week’s issue of ‘Technicals with Dave’ from Rosenberg Research is focused on commodities.
In its Walter Murphy noted on gold that at the time of his last comment five weeks ago, the precious metal was trading at US$4,338 per ounce.
"Our sense was, and had been, that a challenge of the $4,528 per ounce area would likely be part of a topping process.
Our overall focus was on the $4,479-$4,662 range.
A breakout would mean that gold was engaged in something stronger than a topping process."
The range, Murphy noted, held until Tuesday of last week, when gold gapped open at $4,667 per ounce ("signaling a decisive breakout") and finished the day at $4,763.
Since then, it has rallied to as high as $5,483, which is a "decisive extension/continuation" of the post-May rally.
Murphy noted the March 7, 2025, ‘Technicals with Dave’ noted that cyclical resistance for gold was likely near $6,139 per ounce.
That level, which is where the cyclical uptrend from 1999 will equal the 1971-1980 rally, is coming into view, he said.
Murphy said although there is "a gap" at $4,659-$4,621 per ounce, his main support focus is at $5,200, then $4,550-$4,275.
He added: "A move below the former level would signal the beginning of a reversal.
The latter range recently acted as both support and resistance; its importance is likely on par with previous consolidations since the last intermediate swing low in late-2023."
Five weeks ago, Murphy noted, the weekly Coppock Curve was in a downtrend.
But he said it has since recovered and is in a new uptrend.
While it has not yet matched December’s multi-decade high, it still has the potential to do so.
In the meantime, the risk of a developing bearish divergence will be respected, he added.
On WTI crude, Murphy noted as has been the case since late September, it continues to trade below US$71.25-$63.57 per barrel resistance.
On the other hand, it has not been able to convincingly enter $54.40-$50.33 support.
Meanwhile, Murphy notes, the weekly Coppock Curve has been rangebound for over a year.
But, he said, the indicator is in a confirmed uptrend and is still on pace to remain constructive well into March.
"This would seem to give it a fighting chance to at least challenge the top end of its range. If so, oil may
be able to move into (but not through) $71.25-$63.57 per barrel resistance," he added.
On natural gas, Murphy notes it broke a six-week losing streak last week with a rally of 72.15%, and the rally carried it through US$4.59-$4.75 per MMBtu resistance to a 37-month high.
Not to be outdone, it followed through this week to as high as $7.44 before reversing back to $3.82, Murphy said, before adding the prior weeks’ $3.76-$3.45 gap remains unfilled,
Murphy noted last week’s rally also temporarily reversed the weekly Coppock Curve.
The indicator was in a confirmed downtrend following its early December peak.
Prior to last week, the indicator was on pace to have a bearish bias into early March and potentially reach its most oversold levels since early 2024.
Murphy said: "The oscillator still has the potential to remain weak into early March, but it should hold well above its neutral zero line. This implies that any nearby weakness should be reasonably well-contained."
According to Murphy, this week’s high is nominal resistance.
More practical chart resistance is apparent in the $4.61-$5.88 per MMBtu range, which includes a Fibonacci 50% retracement of the 2022-2024 decline, he said.
The $6.85 area, which is both chart resistance and a 61.8% retracement, should still be respected, he added.
Murphy cited this month’s $3.01 low as an important benchmark.
However, he said, there is a $3.76-$3.14 gap that probably should be filled.
In his last comment on silver five weeks ago Murphy had begun by saying that its volatility was something to behold.
"That is still the case," he said, noting in the four full weeks since that comment, silver’s weekly high-low range has been as "small" as 13.5% and as much as 20.7%.
Murphy noted he and his team had to go back to 2020 to find a weekly range of more than 20%; the time before that was 2011.
"We thought that the volatility might signal the beginning of the end of the rally from April’s low, but that has clearly not been the case.
Silver has moved through a potential resistance area on its log-scale chart with relative ease. In addition, both the weekly Coppock Curve and the fourteen-week RSI are at their highest levels since early 1980." Murphy added.
At this point, Murphy said he and the team are inclined to pay "extra attention" to the RSI indicator.
He noted its high-water mark in late December was 91.20; last week, it was 87.73.
Over the past 50 years, when the RSI exceeded 85, silver was close to a high that, often, was not exceeded for a number of months or even years.
Two weeks ago, Murphy noted, silver rallied through US$89 per ounce, which marked a decisive breakout through $87.24 Fibonacci resistance.
He said that level marked the point where the current rally from October’s low equaled the earlier April-October rally on a log-scale chart. With this breakout, the
immediate focus is now on $130.06, which is the point at which the current rally will be 1.618 times the earlier advance, he added.
Murphy said: "We will also want to keep an eye on the $142.65-$146.95 per ounce range.
The lower end of the range is the point where silver’s current uptrend from its 2020 low equals the 2001-2011 uptrend.
The upper end of the range marks silver’s all-time CPI inflation-adjusted high set in 1980."
He added: "Nearby support is in the $100-$105 per ounce area. A breach would open the door for a possible test of previous Fibonacci resistance at $85.50-$89.00, which is now regarded as potentially important support."
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The biggest dollar rally since May accelerated a plunge in precious metals as President Donald Trump announced his pick for the Federal Reserve’s top job: Kevin Warsh, who’s seen as less supportive of deep rate cuts and more worried about inflation.
Stocks fell.
Bonds were mixed.
As the greenback rose against all major currencies, it pared a January slide.
Long-term Treasuries underperformed.
Money markets didn’t react meaningfully to the announcement, with traders actually slightly increasing bets on two Fed cuts in 2026.
A drop in commodity and tech shares dragged down the S&P 500, which still notched its best month since October.
If confirmed by the Senate, the former Fed governor will succeed Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.
Warsh, 55, aligned himself with Trump in 2025 by arguing publicly for lower rates, going against his longstanding reputation as an inflation hawk.
Speaking to reporters Friday, the US president said he has not asked Warsh to commit to cuts.
“Markets may price in a modest acceleration of rate cuts, but an aggressive easing cycle appears unlikely,” said Jason Pride at Glenmede.
The Warsh pick should help stabilize the dollar some and reduce, though not eliminate, the asymmetric risk of deep extended US currency weakness by challenging “debasement” trades — which is also why gold and silver are sharply lower, according to Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“But, we advise against overdoing the Warsh hawkish trade across asset markets – and even see some risk of a whipsaw,” Guha said.
“We see Warsh as a pragmatist, not an ideological hawk in the tradition of the independent conservative central banker.”
The S&P 500 fell 0.4%.
The yield on two-year Treasuries slid three basis points to 3.53%.
Those on 30-year bonds rose four basis points to 4.89%.
The dollar climbed 0.9%.
Bitcoin posted its longest streak of monthly losses in about seven years.
Gold saw its biggest slide in decades, and silver plummeted in a reversal of a scorching rally to all-time highs.
While some market participants may be interpreting Trump’s pick for the Fed as a shift toward a more hawkish policy stance, that reaction may be “overly simplistic,” according to Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“It is unlikely he would have been selected without signaling a willingness to consider additional rate cuts this year,” she said.
“His credibility and institutional knowledge should ultimately anchor expectations rather than unsettle them.”
Shah also notes that his background suggests a strong respect for Fed independence, which makes him far less susceptible to political pressure for aggressive rate cuts when inflation dynamics do not warrant it.
“That commitment to independence should help limit the risk of a selloff at the long end of the Treasury curve and support financial stability,” said Shah.
“In the longer run, Warsh’s nomination reinforces the likelihood of policy continuity and institutional credibility.
For markets, that steadiness should matter far more than the knee-jerk reaction we’re seeing today.”
‘The Bridge to Wall Street’ With five years of history on the Board of Governors under the “Ben Bernanke Fed”, Warsh was known as “the bridge to Wall Street,” according to Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial.
“Warsh is a safe pick. He’s forthright, willing to rethink convention, and not necessarily a ‘yes-man’,” Roach said.
“Investors should be thankful.”
The selection of Warsh for the Fed should calm concern about the erosion of independence of the central bank, according to Eric Teal at Comerica Wealth Management.
“His candidacy included prior experience as a Fed Governor and as an investor,” Teal said.
“He has been flexible on monetary policy in the past and will likely take the most- strategic approach toward the role of the Federal Reserve mission going forward.”
Further deregulation, reducing the balance sheet, and additional rate cuts if inflation continues to moderate should be stimulative for the economy and markets including more value- oriented sectors of the market in the intermediate term, Teal concluded.
Trump’s nomination of Warsh to be the next Fed Chair is “a relatively safe choice for investors,” with his prior hawkish views counteracting concerns he might morph into a full-blown stooge, according to Stephen Brown at Capital Economics.
“Nonetheless, his desire for the Fed to operate with a smaller balance sheet still presents upside risks to long-term yields,” Brown said.
“Kevin Warsh as the nominee for Fed Chair means we could actually end up with a Fed that tilts hawkish at the margin,” said Sonu Varghese at Carson Group.
“Warsh has historically been a hawk, even though he’s been talking rate cuts lately.”
If he walks into the Fed with aggressive cuts as his baseline, he may not have a lot of credibility selling others on the need for further rate cuts, Varghese said.
And we may even end up with a deeply divided committee that doesn’t cut at all, he concluded.
In a note titled “Warshing and Waiting,” TD Securities strategists say markets may struggle to pin down Warsh’s view given his notable shift in policy priorities after espousing a very hawkish stance over the last decade.
“Warsh will likely be a proponent of rate cuts in 2026, but the main question is whether his former ‘hawkish persona’ makes a comeback down the road,” said the TD strategists.
If Warsh is confirmed as Fed chair, Brian Levitt and Benjamin Jones at Invesco don’t think he would prove as hawkish as markets seem to expect.
“Warsh’s policymaking background and prior experience at the Fed should lend support to central bank independence and financial system stability,” they said.
“This may help inflation expectations and US borrowing costs, which remain contained.
Also, his private-sector experience could result in further banking deregulation, providing a tailwind to credit expansion and US growth.”
“We perceive room for eventual agreement at the Fed on reducing the size of its balance sheet and moving it to a Treasury-only portfolio,” said Calvin Tse and James Egelhof at BNP Paribas.
“However, these changes will probably take some time to implement.”
A twist-steepening of the Treasury curve based on Warsh’s past comments makes sense for now, they said, while a focus on AI-driven productivity and disinflation may further boost steepened trades.
Warsh brings an unusual combination of hawkish instincts, openness to innovation, and deep respect for Fed independence, according to Dan Siluk at Janus Henderson.
His nomination suggests a policy regime that is more flexible on rates, more disciplined on the balance sheet, less communicative in its forward signaling, and influenced by a structural productivity narrative shaped by AI, he said.
“Markets should prepare for a Fed that is simultaneously more unpredictable and more orthodox, a blend that marks a genuine shift in the post‑crisis monetary landscape,” Siluk noted.
For markets, Siluk says the reaction reflects the duality of Warsh’s stance.
Front‑end yields have drifted lower on expectations that rate cuts may come sooner than previously projected.
Longer‑dated yields have risen, as investors anticipate less willingness to use the balance sheet to suppress term premiums, producing a “bear steepening dynamic.”
If Warsh is confirmed, Wells Fargo Investment Institute strategists bet he’ll likely advocate to push the federal funds rate to a “neutral” level, which most Fed members project is near 3%.
“This expectation is consistent with our outlook for two quarter-point rate cuts in the second half of 2026,” they said.
“The Warsh nomination should be good for markets in general, but there is one area worth watching,” said Scott Helfstein at Global X ETFs.
“Warsh has expressed interest in shrinking the Fed balance sheet as a means to ensure the bank’s independence from policymakers. That could drive some volatility in the rates market that spills into equities and credit spreads.”
There is a sense that a Warsh Fed technically leans more hawkish with an unwillingness to utilize the balance sheet to cap long-term rates, noted Charlie Ripley at Allianz Investment Management.
“With inflation risks continuing to loom on the horizon, balancing political pressures to reduce policy rates will remain a challenge,” he said.
“On balance, we see Warsh’s nomination ultimately leads to higher risk premiums on long-term rates and the dollar.
Momentum towards a directionally steeper yield curve puts duration buyers on notice, with more potential to underperform.”
While it’s common to see volatility during a Fed Chair transition, Warsh’s nomination is exactly what markets were hoping for as he’s a steady hand, well known in market circles and is expected to maintain the independence of the central bank — which is critical for markets, according to Richard Saperstein at Treasury Partners.
“Warsh’s nomination doesn’t change our outlook for the stock market, which we expect to perform positively this year thanks to a strong economy, stimulus from the tax changes, and an improving corporate earnings story,” he said.
Markets don’t need “a friendly Fed,” but a central bank that is predictable, transparent, and willing to take short-term heat to preserve long-term stability, according to Mark Malek at Siebert Financial.
“So yes, today feels messy. Yes, the plot has thickened.
And yes, my perfectly teed-up earnings season just got hijacked by central banking politics.
But if this leads us toward a world where fundamentals reclaim the spotlight and capital is priced a little more honestly, that is not a bad trade-off at all.
In fact, it might be exactly what the market needs,” Malek concluded.
Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. delivered record quarterly sales and a better-than- anticipated forecast for the current period, even as the company warned that rising component costs are threatening to squeeze margins.
* Amazon.com Inc. is in talks to invest as much as $50 billion in OpenAI and expand an agreement that involves selling computer power to the AI startup, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
* Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin will pause tourist flights to space for “no less than two years” in order to shift resources to accelerating the development of its moon lander and other lunar technologies, the company announced.
* Digital storage company Sandisk Corp.’s strong revenue and earnings outlook is extending a blistering rally in the top performing stock in the S&P 500 Index.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. surpassed profit expectations as higher oil production helped offset the blow from lower crude prices.
* American Express Co. fell after the company’s Platinum card refresh boosted expenses more than expected and profit fell short of analysts’ estimates.
* Verizon Communications Inc. reported its biggest gain in mobile phone subscribers since 2019 and announced plans to buy back as much as $25 billion in shares, signaling turnaround efforts under new Chief Executive Officer Dan Schulman are starting to bear fruit.
* Charter Communications Inc. reported something the cable provider hasn’t seen in a while — a gain in pay-TV customers, its first increase in more than five years.
* Eli Lilly & Co. failed to win backing from the European Union’s medicines regulator for the use of its weight-loss drug Mounjaro to treat a certain kind of heart failure in adults with obesity.
* Rio Tinto Group and Glencore Plc are poised to seek more time to work on a deal to create the world’s biggest miner as they wrangle over the premium that Rio would need to pay, people familiar with the matter said.
* Costco Wholesale Corp. will use Instacart’s technology to power online grocery ordering in Spain and France, extending their partnership beyond North America for the first time as the delivery company looks overseas for growth.
* Deutsche Lufthansa AG will retrofit its largest aircraft with better business-class seats and put them into service starting in April — a quick turnaround that contrasts with the delays plaguing its new Boeing Co. 787 premium cabin.
* China Vanke Co. reported its losses widened by two-thirds to a record last year, citing a sharp decline in its property developments and additional provisions.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.9%
* The euro fell 1% to $1.1853
* The British pound fell 0.9% to $1.3684
* The Japanese yen fell 1.1% to 154.76 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $83,769.51
* Ether fell 4.9% to $2,677.91
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.25%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.84%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.52%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.53%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.89%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $65.80 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 9.7% to $4,851.40 an ounce

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

You gain strength, courage and confidence by every experience in which you really stop to look fear in the face.

You must do the thing you think you cannot do. –Eleanor Roosevelt, 1884-1962.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808

(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)

Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895

Fax: 778.430.5828

www.carolannsteinhoff.com