Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

January 29, 1995: The San Francisco 49ers became the first team to win five Super Bowl titles when they beat the San Diego Chargers 49-26 in Super Bowl XXIX. Go to article

Thomas Paine, revolutionary, b. 1737.

Anton Chekov, writer, b. 1860.

W.C. Fields, b. 1880.

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Artificial intelligence experts have warned that AI "swarms" are poised to infiltrate social media by deploying agents that mimic human behavior and exploit our tendency to follow the herd. Read More.

The complex building blocks of life can form spontaneously in space, a new lab experiment shows. Read More.

NASA has announced it will fuel the Artemis II rocket as part of a simulated launch that will take place as early as Saturday (Jan. 31). Read More.

Astronomers suspect that a massive metallic cloud swirling in a nearby star system could be hiding a giant planet or dwarf star from view, after it drastically dimmed a sun-like star for around nine months.Read More.

Designed to assist rather than replace doctors, a new autonomous tool scans clinical notes to highlight patients who may need urgent follow-up for cognitive decline and potential dementia. Read More.

An innovative approach to battery materials could bring sodium-ion energy density and charging speeds far closer to those of lithium-ion, scientists say. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Tokyo, Japan

A bird perches on a branch of an early-blooming cherry tree at the Ebara shrine
Photograph: Yoshio Tsunoda/AFLO/Shutterstock

Seville, Spain

Models take to the catwalk during the international flamenco fashion week
Photograph: Raúl Caro Cadenas/EPA

Moscow, Russia

A worker shovels snow near the Kremlin
Photograph: Anastasia Barashkova/Reuters

Market Closes for January 29th, 2026

International Markets

Bonds

Commodities

Market Commentary:

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.5% at 33,016.13 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1% on Jan.
20 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.2%.
Celestica Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 13.5%.
Vizsla Silver Corp. had the largest drop, falling 14.9%.
Today, 130 of 218 shares fell, while 88 rose; 5 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.1%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.4%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Nov. 21
* The index advanced 30% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.2% below its 52-week high on Jan. 26, 2026 and 48.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 3.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 20.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$5.26t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.37% compared with 8.56% in the previous session and the average of 9.43% over the past month
Index Points
Materials | -217.4777| -3.0| 13/43
Information Technology| -31.6915| -1.2| 1/9
Consumer Discretionary| -4.9265| -0.5| 1/8
Utilities | -4.3972| -0.4| 3/11
Health Care | -1.0152| -1.2| 0/4
Real Estate | 1.7014| 0.4| 14/5
Consumer Staples | 3.5132| 0.3| 5/5
Communication Services| 4.4895| 0.7| 2/3
Industrials | 5.5283| 0.2| 10/19
Energy | 33.7627| 0.6| 27/11
Financials | 50.5713| 0.5| 12/12
Celestica | -50.8200| -13.5| 186.6| -0.5
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | -42.7000| -4.0| 36.2| 24.7
Barrick Mining | -19.6900| -2.3| 48.6| 17.4
RBC | 15.5900| 0.7| 52.9| -2.8
Canadian Pacific | Kansas | 31.4100| 5.1| 143.0| 1.2
Shopify | 42.2100| 2.6| 80.3| -12.4
5N Plus | 19.1| 2.3150| 460.8| 31.2
Rogers Communications | 5.7| 7.5550| 148.7| 0.4
Canadian Pacific |Kansas | 5.1| 31.4100| 143.0| 1.2
Vizsla Silver | -14.9| -3.3350| 272.0| 4.8
Celestica | -13.5| -50.8200| 186.6| -0.5
Orla Mining | -13.5| -6.6320| 183.7| 24.1
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange slumped Thursday despite higher commodity prices, as investors took profits following 10 record closes this month and on an escalating trade dispute between Canada and the United States, while the losses also came as Morningstar noted "investor sentiment towards gold could be a key to the performance of Canada’s stock market in 2026".
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 159.94 points, or 0.5%, to 33,016.13, even with most sectors higher, led by Energy up 1.15%.
But Information Technology dropped 4.5% and Health Care lost near 1.6%.
According to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet, going in to Thursday’s session the TSX was month and year to date up 4.61% and 1,463.31 points.
On the economic front, CTV News noted Canada’s relationship with the U.S. loomed large as Prime Minister Mark Carney assembled premiers from across the country for a high-level meeting on the way forward for the nation.
CTV noted Carney has classified recent rhetoric on Canada from U.S. President Donald Trump as a precursor to trade negotiations.
Trump, speaking to his own cabinet today, said tariffs are driving auto manufacturing companies out of Canada, Mexico and elsewhere in favour of the U.S. market.
Trump’s comments come as more than 1,000 workers at the Oshawa, Ont., General Motors plant will be without work Friday morning, according to the employees’ union.
The union wrote in a statement that GM is moving shifts to plants in the United States.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed at a four-month high Thursday, spurred higher on a U.S. threat to attack Iran unless it agrees to talks over its nuclear program.
WTI crude oil for March delivery closed up $2.21 to settle at US$65.42 per barrel, the highest since Sept. 26, while March Brent oil was up $2.34 to US$70.74.
Also, gold prices were up again late afternoon Thursday, climbing to another fresh record high amid momentum buying, fresh U.S. military threats to Iran, a weakening dollar and a move to physical assets as a store of value.
Gold for March delivery was last seen up $84.10 to US$5,424.30 per ounce, rising off Wednesday’s record close, but under the session high of US$5,626.80.
Gold is up 23% over the past month and 81% over the past year.
Vikram Barhat at Morningstar on Jan. 27 published a note entitled ‘What Does the Gold Rally Mean for the Canadian Stock Market?’ in which he said "investor sentiment towards gold could be a key to the performance of Canada’s stock market in 2026".
Among key takeaways, Barhat noted rising gold prices continue to drive the Canadian stock market to new highs; the materials sector stands to benefit further from the commodities supercycle that started last year; Kinross, Barrick, and Agnico Eagle were standout performers, riding the surge in gold prices.
Within his note, Barhat noted risk perception is not the whole story.
Apart from being a growth engine for Canadian investor portfolios, "gold strength can provide a useful counterbalance within portfolios, especially when volatility rises in other parts of the market," Chris McHaney, executive vice president, head of investment management and strategy at Global X, is cited as saying.
Barhat noted the materials sector has also benefited from the onset of last year’s commodities supercycle, which McHaney sees continuing into 2026 and beyond.
That supercycle, (a prolonged period of strong demand and high price growth, is underpinned, the Morningstar note reads, by a powerful mix of cyclical recovery and longer-term structural forces.
"The factors contributing to the continuity of the cycle include a historical underinvestment in supply, rising demand tied to AI infrastructure build out, electrification and energy transition, and geopolitical concerns around energy security, as well as a renewed interest in hard assets as inflation hedges," McHaney said.
Can, Barhat asked, investors expect a similar blockbuster performance from basic materials guiding the Canadian stock market to another year of outperformance?.
"Canada’s equity market tends to be more sensitive to moves in gold than many global peers, simply because of how resource-heavy the economy and stock market are," McHaney is cited as saying.
Morningstar notes McHaney thinks the "unabated" geopolitical uncertainty and stock market volatility continue to provide a tailwind for gold demand.
However, according to Morningstar, there is more to the rise in investor appetite for the precious metal than short-term risk sentiment.
It cites McHaney saying it’s more a function of structural factors, "including persistent inflation pressures, elevated government debt levels, rising geopolitical concerns, and central bank diversification away from the US dollar".
Things will depend largely on continued investor enthusiasm for gold, Bipan Rai, head of ETF and alternatives strategy at BMO Global Asset Management is cited as saying.
"Traditionally, gold has been viewed as a diversifier in the portfolio, but if the trade and cross-border investment backdrop remains as
volatile as it is now, then we’d expect additional demand at the margin," Rai said.
Such a scenario would sustain demand for gold among opportunistic buyers, which "should keep gold prices supported on dips," the note reads.
McHaney is cited providing a word of caution for commodities investors: saying significant moves from commodities across the board might turn more selective going forward.
"Canadians may see stronger dispersion across commodities and companies, with outcomes tied to structurally supported materials rather than broad-based sector moves," he adds.
Ben Jang, portfolio manager and investment strategist at Nicola Wealth, further tempers investor expectations for another bumper year.
"It’s much harder to argue for a repeat of a near-blockbuster surge after such a big year because the bar rises. Valuations can be richer, expectations are higher, and some industrial metal demand may have been pulled forward rather than permanently increased," he is cited saying.
Jang adds: the sector can still do well, and materials could remain a leader, "but a repeat of last year’s magnitude is not a base case."
Another year of stellar returns "would likely require another major leg higher in bullion and/or another fresh macro shock that intensifies safe haven demand."
Rosenberg Research’s Mehmet Beceren and Zackary Young looked at copper and copper miners within the "surging" metals complex and found "the long-run case for copper is strong, but the short-run case carries some tactical risks".
MT Newswires Canada noted ETFs mentioned included: Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX), Evolve Global Materials and Mining Enhanced Yield ETF (BASE), and Global X Copper Producer Equity Covered Call ETF (CPCC).
Among key takeaways, Beceren and Young found copper is a two-track market, saying: "The long-run structural bull case (AI, electrification, defense, and slow-to-build supply) is strengthening, but the short-run tape is being pushed by tariff headlines, inventories, and weak-dollar-driven momentum flows, creating "air pocket" risk."
The duo found the key tactical risk is policy-driven dislocation, saying: "Tariff fine print and inventory hoarding can temporarily distort spreads (COMEX vs. LME), tighten supply, and then unwind abruptly.
That makes spot/futures exposure more fragile in this regime."
Also, the duo found preference for equities over chasing the metal futures, saying: "Following the strong run-up in metals, we would express the bullish view through miners, ideally paired with covered-call income to cushion volatility."
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street saw a sharp bounce from session lows as dip buyers stepped in following a slide driven by concerns over whether the unprecedented spending on artificial- intelligence will justify all that capital.
Big moves in commodities saw gold plunging as oil soared.
Bitcoin dipped below $85,000.
Gains in economically sensitive shares almost erased the drop in the S&P 500, which earlier sank as much as 1.5%.
Meta Platforms Inc.’s solid outlook eased worries about its spending plans.
Microsoft Corp. tumbled the most since 2020 on concern it could take a while for AI investments to pay off.
In late hours, Apple Inc. posted strong results.
Amazon.com Inc. was said to be in talks to invest as much as $50 billion in OpenAI.
“This appears to be a classic buying opportunity,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
“We’re already seeing a bounce off the bottom in all the major indexes. Volatility is clearly higher, but the trend is nevertheless still positive.”
Wall Street is gearing up for a borrowing bonanza to bankroll AI projects that could push February corporate bond sales to a record, despite complacency warnings.
International Business Machines Corp. sold dollar and euro bonds, kicking off what’s expected to be a flood of borrowing from the tech sector in 2026.
The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants have led the stock market higher for much of the past three years.
But that reversed at the end of 2025 as Wall Street grew skeptical of the hundreds of billions of dollars the companies are spending to develop AI and when the returns on those investments will materialize.
“The one-way bet on AI leadership is now starting to look overcrowded,” saidFawad Razaqzada at Forex.com.
“There is now some fear creeping into investors’ minds that the AI theme may not be as immediately lucrative as hoped.”
Still, all is not lost, he noted. The fact that the Nasdaq is easing back from elevated levels is a clear sign “it is far too early to talk about the peak in tech,” Razaqzada said.
The day after the Federal Reserve decided to stand pat saw an uneventful batch of economic data.
President Donald Trump said he would announce his nominee to chair the Fed “next week,” and reiterated his expectation that the central bank’s new leader will lower interest rates.
The S&P 500 fell 0.1%.
The Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.5%.
The Russell 2000 was little changed.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid one basis point to 4.23%.
The dollar barely budged while still heading for its worst month since the April tariff-fueled meltdown.
Gold reversed an earlier rally that took the precious metal to a record above $5,500.
Brent crude settled above $70 as Trump warned Iran to make a nuclear deal or face military strikes.
As earnings season kicks into high gear, investors are looking beyond the headline and guidance numbers.
They seek clarity on the impacts of the evolving trade landscape as well as clues regarding the trajectory of AI capital investments, according to Rob Anderson and Thanh Nguyen at Ned Davis Research.
“Earnings could help solidify the rotation away from growth to value if growth rates and revision trends continue to suggest a broadening beyond the tech megacaps later this year,” they said.
“Conversely, a strong quarter from the megacaps could help growth sectors regain leadership status.”
While earnings growth for the “Magnificent Seven” is expected to continue to outpace the remaining S&P 500 shares in each quarter in 2026, the gap is seen narrowing throughout the year, they noted.
The group of big techs is expected to post 20% profit growth for the fourth quarter, which would be the slowest pace since early 2023, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
“If revision trends continue to suggest earnings will broaden throughout 2026, it could support the case for the value rotation that began at the end of October to persist in 2026,” said Anderson and Nguyen.
After years that saw a handful of megacap AI firms do theheavy lifting, traders are questioning the durability of the trade, prompting money managers to diversify away from the bull market’s longtime winners.
“The AI theme is overcrowded, and investors are revaluing the AI trade, so they are re-weighting big-tech stocks in their portfolios,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak & Co.
This week brought the first wave of major tech earnings, and a clear theme is emerging, according to Angelo Kourkafas at Edward Jones.
“Companies are ramping up AI‑related infrastructure spending, and markets are rewarding those that can turn these investments into earnings,” he said.
“Firms without a clear monetization strategy are facing more scrutiny.”
More broadly, Kourkafas says the tech sector is still expected to deliver strong profit growth in the S&P 500, with AI remaining an important catalyst.
“However, that growth is slowing from earlier quarters even as other sectors accelerate, supporting what we see as this year’s key theme: a broadening of market leadership,” he concluded.
Investors appear a little more willing at the start of the year to rebalance at least some of their positioning away from the AI trade, for valid reasons, and toward asset categories, sectors, industries, and companies that are more exposed to the “real” economy, accorrding to Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“Unless reports from Mag Seven companies materially reset the earnings outlook (which we believe will not be the case), the early-year preference for small caps and non-tech cyclicals could remain intact as investors seek a wider base of earnings contributors and index performance participants,” he said earlier this week.
After three consecutive years of double-digit returns, the equity markets have proven to be incredibly resilient.
However, the outlook for 2026 is for a “bull market with a lowercase ‘b’”— defined by episodic volatility, aggressive sector rotations, P/E multiple contraction, and outperformance by small- and mid- cap stocks, according to Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“Under the surface, a true stock-picker’s market is emerging with more constructive charts setting up across many sectors,” Johnson said.
“We reiterate our S&P year-end price objective of 7,150 — a modest single-digit gain — but note that the real opportunity this year lies in stock picking, not at the index level.”
The gauge closed at 6,969.01 Thursday.
Wall Street’s record-setting stock rally loading high profit expectations into share prices, investors are punishing companies heavily for disappointments, with the average post- results stock move relative to the benchmark index showing a drop of half a percentage point — the first negative reading in two years.
Meta will double capital spending to as much as $135 billion this year, an all-in bet on AI.
Tesla Inc. will spend $20 billion this year on pursuits including AI, self-driving vehicles and robotics — almost double Wall Street estimates — and plow another $2 billion into Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s xAI startup.
Meantime, Microsoft’s spending surged to a record high and cloud sales growth slowed, triggering investor concerns that it could take longer than expected for the company’s AI investments to pay off.
During the analyst call, Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella said companies are now paying for 15 million subscriptions to the M365 Copilot, Microsoft’s main AI tool for office workers.
Adoption is growing among the company’s enormous base of corporate users, Nadella said.
“In addition to measuring AI monetization via cloud revenue growth, we are increasingly seeing evidence of productivity gains due to AI adoption,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“As in any innovation cycle in the past, we expect to see a performance handover from the enablers to the users, and companies that leverage AI to improve business outcomes should see tangible financial benefits.”
That means AI beneficiaries are likely to “broaden” not only to the intelligence and application layers of the value chain, but also to other sectors such as financials and health care, she said.
“So, we maintain our conviction that AI innovation will continue to drive equity returns in the coming years, and investors should broaden their exposure across the value chain,” Hoffmann-Burchardi concluded.
While some investors are raising alarms of a looming bubble in AI, Blackstone Inc.
President Jon Gray is focused on what happens when industries change overnight, like what happened to “the Yellow Pages back in the ‘90s when the internet came along,” he said Thursday in a Bloomberg Television interview.
“Every deal that we’re doing today, in the first two pages of the memo, we’re saying, ‘What is the AI risk?’” Gray said.
Legendary investment strategist Jeremy Grantham, known for forecasts that have occasionally presaged major market dislocations such as in 2000 and 2008, argues that the current AI boom is a classic technology bubble wrapped around a genuinely transformative innovation, and that history suggests both the promise and the peril are real.
“The rule from history is that great technological innovations lead to great bubbles,” the co-founder of GMO said.
“AI is maybe the most visibly impressive innovation of the last 100 years, perhaps of a magnitude equal to the railways of the 19th century. It should not be surprising that it appears to be moving through the same pattern both rapidly and powerfully.”
Grantham argues that when investor confidence eventually reaches its limits, “the deflating of the AI bubble will lead to a major stumble for the economy, a plunge in profits, and a severe decline in valuations.”
He notes that AI reversed a developing bear in late 2022 “like a multi-stage rocket,” reigniting speculation around a narrow group of market leaders even as valuations moved further away from long-term norms.

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. will spend over $20 billion on a dramatic reshuffling of factory lines reflecting Elon Musk’s repositioning of the carmaker coming off a multiyear sales slump. The firm’s fourth-quarter profit surpassed expectations.
* SpaceX is in discussions with his artificial intelligence firm xAI about a potential merger ahead of the rocket and satellite maker’s potential blockbuster IPO, Reuters reported.
* ServiceNow Inc. gave a sales outlook in the current quarter that was stronger than expected but failed to reduce investor anxieties that artificial intelligence will disrupt the software maker’s business.
* Lam Research Corp. forecast adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
* US auto safety regulators are investigating a Waymo autonomous vehicle that struck a child near a school in Santa Monica, California, the second recent probe to examine the behavior of the Alphabet Inc. unit’s robotaxis near children.
* Caterpillar Inc. got an earnings boost from selling power generation equipment to AI data centers in its fourth quarter, helping drive quarterly results that topped Wall Street’s expectations.
* Honeywell International Inc.’s outlook for 2026 topped Wall Street estimates, while the spinoff of its aerospace unit is set to happen earlier than expected.
* Starbucks Corp. sees sales and earnings growth over the next few years as its turnaround plan takes hold.
* Visa Inc. reported earnings that topped analyst estimates as payments surged 8% from a year earlier amid strong holiday spending.
* Mastercard Inc. reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat estimates as consumers continued to turn to the company’s cards as a payment option.
* Comcast Corp. reported revenue and profit in the fourth quarter that met or surpassed Wall Street expectations, even as it continued to lose cable TV and internet customers.
* The UK warned some patients have died of severe inflammation of the pancreas linked to obesity and diabetes drugs such as Eli Lilly & Co.’s Mounjaro and Novo Nordisk A/S’s Wegovy.
* Grubhub is removing delivery and service fees on all restaurant orders above $50, the latest move by the newly private food-delivery app to lure customers from rivals DoorDash Inc. and Uber Technologies Inc.
* Carvana Co. bounced from a steep selloff as Wall Street analysts rushed to defend the online used-car dealer’s business following a report from short seller Gotham City Research that accused the company of overstating earnings.
* Lazard Inc. named Tracy Farr chief financial officer as it reported fourth-quarter revenue and profit that beat analysts’ estimates.
* Blackstone Inc. reported a surprise jump in distributable earnings as dealmaking reignited and reached what President Jon Gray calls “escape velocity.” For executives, that unleashed some of their richest rewards since the pandemic.
* First Brands Group founder Patrick James and his brother Edward, a former executive at the company, were indicted in New York following the collapse of the bankrupt auto-parts maker last year.
* Lockheed Martin Corp. said it reached a deal with the Pentagon to increase THAAD interceptor production, as the company issued an upbeat guidance for 2026 amid record deliveries of its F-35 fighter and growing missile sales.
* Southwest Airlines Co. reported results that topped analyst estimates, signaling the fruits of a turnaround after a challenging year as the US carrier rolls out new initiatives to boost profit.
* Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.’s results showed as demand for cruise holidays keeps accelerating, which could see the liner add as many as six additional ships to its fleet.
* Joby Aviation Inc. is raising $1 billion from the sale of shares and convertible bonds, as the air taxi company seeks to double production capacity by 2027.
* International Paper Co. plans to break up and spin off its European packaging business in a significant shift for the 128- year-old company as it seeks to strengthen operations amid a weak global economy.
* What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“A selloff on this scale naturally creates a buyingopportunity, and stocks should recover much of Thursday’s lossesat some point. More than anything though, this selloffrepresents a shift in the narrative around AI.”
—Sebastian Boyd, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
* Microsoft fell 10%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1965
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3804
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 153.12 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 5.8% to $84,090.62
* Ether fell 7.1% to $2,804.32
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.23%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.84%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.51%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.56%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.85%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.5% to $65.43 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $5,399.23 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

"The way to become rich is to put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket."