Dear Friends,
Tangents: Wishing you peace and light on the last day of Hanukkah 🕎
Carolann is away from the office. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.
December 22, 1808 – Beethoven’s Fifth and Sixth Symphonies were premiered in Vienna.
December 22, 1894 – The Lumière brothers patented the cinematograph in France.
December 22, 1927 – The first transatlantic telephone call was made from New York to London.
December 22, 1989 – Charles, Prince of Wales, married Lady Diana Spencer🕊️ (anniversary).
Forefathers’ Day (U.S.) – Observed in Plymouth, Massachusetts
Diane Sawyer– American television journalist. b, 1945
Rick Springfield– Australian-American singer and actor. b, 1949
Mary Elizabeth Winstead– American actress. b, 1984
Scientists watching the nearby Fomalhaut star system have directly seen two protoplanets smash together for the first time. Then, they saw it happen again.
AI is solving ‘impossible’ math problems. Can it best the world’s top mathematicians?
AI is making gains in solving pure math problems. Can it crack the hardest problems in mathematics?
How to put some of Warren Buffett’s best money and life advice to work for you
You don’t get labeled the “Oracle of Omaha” for nothing.
As one of the world’s most successful investors, Warren Buffett’s views on markets, companies and the economy have always been of great interest on Wall Street and Main Street.
While most of the world is preparing for Christmas, the Philippines has been at it for months
Via Arboleda stepped back to admire the six-foot tree glittering in her living room.
Though the narra trees along Manila’s sidewalks had yet to shed their leaves, she was among many Filipinos already unpacking their Christmas decorations in eager anticipation of December 25.
Prince William and son George continue Diana’s legacy with Christmas trip to homeless shelter
London— The Prince of Wales and his son George volunteered at a homeless charity in London this week, a trip reminiscent of William’s own upbringing having been introduced to the shelter at a similar age by his mother Diana, the late Princess of Wales.
Does science agree it’s better to give than receive? A doctor explains
The holidays are here, which means you’re probably thinking about gifts — what to buy, whom to give to and how much to spend. Gift-giving is often framed as a source of stress and obligation, but a growing body of research suggests there may also be something beneficial about giving itself.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Seoul, South Korea
Climbers in Santa Claus outfits prepare for a climbing event on Bukhansan mountain
Photograph: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
South Tangerang, Indonesia
A worker cleans a mosaic glass window at St Barnabas Catholic church to prepare for the Christmas mass in Banten province
Photograph: Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana/Reuters
Johannesburg, South Africa
An aerial photo shows cars with Christmas-themed decorations
Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock
Market Closes for December 22nd, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
48352.58 | +227.79 |
| +0.47% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6878.49 | +43.99 |
| +0.64% | ||
| NASDAQ | 23428.83 | +121.21 |
| +0.52% | ||
| TSX | 32000.10 | +244.33 |
| +0.77% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 50402.39 | +895.18 |
| +1.81% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25801.77 | +111.24 |
| +0.43% | ||
| SENSEX | 85567.48 | +638.12 |
| +0.75% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9865.97 | -31.45 |
| -0.32% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.463 | 3.469 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.881 | 3.888 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1628 | 4.1471 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.8364 | 4.8242 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7276 | 0.7248 |
| US $ |
1.3743 | 1.3795 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 0.6183 | 1.6172 |
| US $ |
0.85987 | 1.1767 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4337.60 | 4333.35 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 58.16 | 56.66 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1973, oil ministers of OPEC’s six Persian Gulf member countries announced at a meeting in Tehran that they would unilaterally raise the price of crude oil to $7 per barrel–and that it would go up again, to $11.65, on Jan. 1, 1974. In two-and-a-half months, OPEC had raised the price of oil by 128%.
C🎅A🎅N🎅A🎅D🎅A
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.8%, or 244.33 to 32,000.10 in Toronto.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.6%.
Discovery Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.0%.
Today, 162 of 219 shares rose, while 54 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 29%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 6.6%
* This month, the index rose 2%
* The index advanced 30% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 44% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.6% in the past 5 days and rose 6.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 20 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$5.03t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 13.09% compared with 12.97% in the previous session and the average of 14.33% over the past month
Index Points
Materials | 142.2413| 2.4| 53/4
Financials | 37.0672| 0.4| 19/5
Energy | 33.0675| 0.7| 31/5
Industrials | 27.3537| 0.8| 21/8
Consumer Staples | 4.4852| 0.4| 8/1
Utilities | 3.0871| 0.3| 8/6
Information Technology | 1.3330| 0.0| 6/4
Health Care | -0.8705| -1.0| 2/2
Real Estate | -0.9077| -0.2| 7/12
Consumer Discretionary | -1.2148| -0.1| 4/5
Communication Services | -1.3088| -0.2| 3/2
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 21.7300| 2.6| -27.7| 120.2
Brookfield Corp | 15.3900| 1.6| -18.1| 15.3
Barrick Mining | 12.8500| 1.8| 14.1| 181.3
Shopify | -3.5880| -0.2| -33.0| 52.5
CIBC | -7.6570| -0.9| 98.0| 39.7
Constellation | Software | -9.3610| -2.0| 20.7| -25.6
Discovery Silver Corp | 8.0| 2.9390| -14.9| 1,177.5
Vizsla Silver | 7.7| 1.3770| 79.2| 227.6
Bitfarms/Canada | 6.3| 0.7960| -10.7| 74.2
Curaleaf | -7.5| -1.0490| -9.9| 71.0
Magna Intl | -2.0| -2.8690| 11.9| 24.3
Constellation | Software | -2.0| -9.3610| 20.7| -25.6
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange breached the 32,000 level for the first time ever and set a second straight record close Monday, leading BMO to celebrate what it termed a “banner year” for the index, as gold futures topped US$4,400 for the first time and silver rallied, while oil prices leapt as the United States intensified its Venezuela blockade.
Buoyed by commodity prices, the resources heavy TSX was up 244.33 points or 0.75% at 32,000.10, easily beating a record finish of 31,755.82 hit last Friday.
Most sectors were higher, led by the Battery Metals Index up 3.5% and Base Metals up 2.5%, while Health Care was down 1.7%.
Over at BMO Robert Kavcic noted the TSX is looking to close out 2025 with a roughly 12 ppt outperformance versus the S&P 500.
“We haven’t seen such a strong year for Canadian equities in relative terms since 2005, when the energy sector was on fire,” he said.
And, Kavcic said, that’s despite two major relative headwinds. He noted the tariff dispute put a “serious chill” on business confidence in Canada.
“However, any exposure in hard-hit industries was limited in the TSX when set against massive gains in banks and gold.”
He also noted Canada’s equity market had outperformed even as the AI trade accelerated in the U.S. such that the top 10 names now make up more than 40% of the S&P 500 market cap.
“We’ll see if this is a good omen for the Canadian economy heading into 2026 given that stocks lead…,” Kavcic said.
Still on economics, UBS in its Global Economics & Markets Outlook for 2026-2027 and in a summary for Canada noted activity had slowed in mid-2025, but “the worst appears to be over”.
UBS noted GDP growth is tracking below 2% and labor market conditions softened “notably” through mid-2025, which, in its view, is one the key factors behind the recent policy easing by the Bank of Canada.
Another factor is the retrenchment of inflation risks with Canada withdrawing reciprocal tariffs and a growing number of Canadian firms complying with USMCA, it noted.
UBS views risks to its outlook as “roughly balanced”.
The bank said additional fiscal support can be more growth accretive than it has currently baked in.
Specifically, it added, the government’s housing initiatives on top of monetary policy easing may improve infrastructure and residential investment, and the Canadian consumer may deliver positive surprises if rising housing activity helps renters and first-home buyers (“provided house prices don’t decline noticeably such that existing owners and stakeholders lose asset value”).
On the other hand, a potential deterioration in global financial conditions or renewed strains in Canada-US trade relations could weigh on the outlook, noted.
UBS retains its forecast of 2.25% policy rate through the forecast horizon, the lower end of the Bank of Canada’s estimate of neutral.
Of commodities, The Wall Street Journal said gold futures surged past US$4,400 on growing expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts, as well as heightened geopolitical risks spurring haven demand.
It noted the front month contracts for both gold and silver settled at new record highs.
Gold contracts were up 1.9% at $4,444.60 a troy ounce.
Silver added 1.6% to $67.906 a troy ounce. Copper futures edged lower.
Barron’s noted global oil prices jumped on Monday as the U.S. accelerated its effort to block crude exports from Venezuela.
Reports suggested the “active pursuit” of a tanker headed toward the South American coast. Price: 32,000.10, Change: 244.33, Percent Change: +0.75
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The holiday-shortened week started with gains in stocks amid a broad advance that saw a continuation of the bullish momentum on Wall Street.
Oil and gold rallied as the dollar fell.
Equities erased their December losses, with the S&P 500 set for an eighth straight up month – the longest winning run since 2018.
Almost 400 of its shares rose Monday as the benchmark approached a record.
Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. led megacaps higher.
A gauge of smaller firms climbed 1.2%.
Despite bouts of volatility and concerns about the AI trade, tech has led the market to the upside this year, and it will probably be the difference between a positive and negative December, said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“If a Santa Claus rally does kick in this year, St. Nick’s gift bag will likely need to be full of positive tech sentiment,” he noted.
It’s been a strong year for stocks and the big question is whether investors will carry that positive mood into 2026.
Positioning in equities is rising and fund managers are maintaining record low levels of cash.
Their expectations of a further rally are outweighing concerns over rich valuations.
The Federal Reserve path is also being closely watched, with two rate cuts priced for next year.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran told Bloomberg Television the central bank risks sparking a recession unless it continues lowering rates next year.
The S&P 500 climbed to around 6,880.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.16%.
The dollar halted a three-day advance.
Oil rallied while gold and silver jumped to all-time highs amid geopolitical tensions.
“Everything is shaping up for a festive end to the year,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“This week is being driven by technical tailwinds, a bit of stimulus optimism, and self- fulfilling prophecy, all of which are setting up a strong year- end and a solid start to next year.”
Hackett noted that the last two weeks of the year are typically the best on the calendar since 1950.
The so-called Santa Claus rally, which includes the last five trading days of December and the first two of January, has been positive roughly 80% of the time, by an average of 1.6% since 1928, he added.
“When this pattern is heavily discussed, it can become a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Hackett said.
“An important caveat, however, is the consistent theme of the past five years that historical patterns have provided little direction, with last year delivering a negative return.”
Yet Hackett said that market action is encouraging, including healthy breadth, shifting leadership, and greater discernment by investors around valuations.
“The trend is our friend, 2026 looks to have a strong start, and a potential Santa Claus rally is back on the table, which would leave us ending the year at new highs,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
Buoyed by tech, the long-term valuation ratio of the S&P 500 is now at an all-time high.
This metric has exceeded previous peaks that preceded major drawdowns, such as in the summer of 2000 before the dotcom crash, or in January 2022 when the market started to price a surge in interest rates.
“While 2025 was a volatile year with April’s tariff-driven correction, we don’t think we’re out of the woods when it comes to volatility for 2026,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.
While Bellin expects the tech sector to continue its corrective phase, he bets on a bottom sometime in the next few months.
He also sees the Fed refraining from rate cuts until there’s a new chair mid-year, but says stocks can move higher during this time even without additional rate cuts.
Equity investor sentiment was bullish for a third straight week, although the gap over more pessimistic views has narrowed slightly, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists.
The team including Parag Thatte said aggregate equity positioning declined last week, but remains modestly overweight.
Meantime, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by Ben Snider noted the bank’s baseline macro outlook is “supportive for small-cap upside in early 2026.”
“We do not believe markets are fully pricing the likely strength of the US economy next year, and small-caps typically outperform during cyclical rallies,” they wrote.
Sell-side strategists across major firms have issued year- end targets for the S&P 500 that are clustered the tightest in almost a decade.
With the highest forecast from Oppenheimer & Co. at 8,100 and the lowest from Stifel Nicolaus & Co. at 7,000, the gap in their annual outlook is just 16%.
Such lockstep views are generally considered a contrarian signal — when everyone’s leaning the same way, the imbalance often rights itself.
They also come at a time when market risks are visible. Still, strategists on average see more gains for stocks in 2026, even after three straight years of double-digit returns.
The not insignificant amount of good news already priced in includes: an accommodative Fed that will cut rates at least once, if not twice; S&P 500 earnings to grow by about 14%; and a fiscal bump from the recently passed tax law, noted Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
“It seems like folly to think that these would not benefit stocks,” he said.
“One must consider whether simply meeting those expectations will be sufficient. If not, then we could see disappointment even amidst a good investment climate.”
BofA’s Moynihan Says AI’s Economic Benefit Is ‘Kicking In More’ “Can the market hold up if AI enthusiasm and a dovish Fed aren’t helping it?” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
“The answer is yes, but only as long as economic growth stays solid.”
Essaye noted that there was a data deluge last week, and the net result was that economic data and inflation remain “Goldilocks enough to help support stocks.”
An S&P 500 valuation metric that adds in consumer sentiment suggests stocks are better positioned for gains next year than a more conventional price-earning multiple measure might indicate, according to veteran investment strategist Jim Paulsen.
He says that both price-earnings ratios and consumer confidence are “abnormal,” with today’s S&P 500 price-earnings multiple higher than 94% of the time since 1960, while consumer sentiment is at its first percentile since then.
The unusually-high PE multiple might be alarming if it weren’t for the accompanying exceptionally low sentiment, he says, writing that “until the Emotion-Adjusted PE rises to a concerning level, investors may be best served by remaining bullish.”
“Economic data will start to hit the wires tomorrow, but for now, traders are taking their cue from the general sense amongst participants that there’s little standing in the way for a Santa Claus rally to manifest,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
In the run-up to Tuesday’s reading on the economy, Bloomberg Economics estimates the US likely grew more than 3% in the third quarter, supported by robust consumer spending and modest investment gains — defying headwinds from tariff-related uncertainty.
While the upcoming datapoints will provide a relevant contribution to investors’ understanding of the trajectory of the real economy, they don’t necessarily hold the needed weight to recast the outlook for 2026, according to said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
“As the final trading days of 2025 arrive, the US rates market remains decidedly range-bound with little on the immediate horizon to suggest that will change before the next payrolls report,” he said. Those figures are due to be released on Jan. 9.
The past week featured two influential economic releases for Fed policy: employment and inflation, noted Magdalena Ocampo at Principal Asset Management.
“Taken together, the latest economic readings are likely to give doves in the Fed the upper hand, though uncertainty remains with one more inflation and employment report due before the Fed’s next meeting in January 2026,” she said.
For now, she expects two rate cuts next year, likely in the first half, and, provided unemployment doesn’t spiral, Ocampo says a resilient economy, cooling inflation and easier policy should be supportive for risk assets in the year ahead.
Corporate Highlights:
* Alphabet Inc. has agreed to buy clean energy developer Intersect Power LLC for $4.75 billion in cash, plus existing debt, marking one of the largest deals by the tech giant to dramatically expand its data center footprint for AI.
* Nvidia Corp. has told Chinese clients it aims to ship its second-most powerful AI chips to China by mid-February, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
* Meta Platforms Inc.’s Threads will launch podcast previews, or the ability to upload snippets of shows that play directly in user feeds, as part of a broader effort to encourage podcasters and their fans to spend more time on the social network, according to a person familiar with the plans.
* Target Corp., Whole Foods Market and Walmart Inc. will be added as defendants in lawsuits against baby formula maker ByHeart for selling a product potentially contaminated with spores that cause infant botulism.
* Netflix Inc. refinanced part of a $59 billion bridge loan with cheaper and longer-term debt, bolstering the financial package underpinning its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.
* Larry Ellison is throwing his personal fortune behind Paramount Skydance Corp.’s bid for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., raising the stakes in a fiercely contested battle with Netflix Inc.
* The US is suspending leases for all five wind farms under construction off the East Coast in the latest blow to a sectorthat’s been targeted repeatedly by the Trump administration as part of its attack on clean energy.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. is considering offering cryptocurrency trading to its institutional clients, as large banks around the world deepen their involvement in the asset class.
* Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. bolstered its cash reserve to $2.19 billion and paused purchases of Bitcoin over the past week as the largest digital asset treasury company appears to be settling in for a long crypto winter.
* Coinbase Global Inc. announced Monday that it will acquire a derivatives clearinghouse, The Clearing Company, to boost its entry into the growing prediction markets business.
* Wells Fargo & Co.’s global-markets business is expanding into options clearing, a capital intensive and operationally arduous corner of finance dominated by Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
* Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc. are each teaming up with Baidu Inc. to trial driverless taxis in the UK, as ride-sharing companies race to deploy autonomous services around the world.
* Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst agreed to buy Janus Henderson Group Plc in a deal that values the asset manager at about $7.4 billion.
* A group of private equity firms led by Permira and Warburg Pincus has agreed to acquire Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc. in a deal valuing the investment and accounting software maker at $8.4 billion including debt.
* The US Federal Communications Commission said it would ban most foreign-made drones and and critical components for unmanned aircraft systems going forward, a day ahead of a deadline for adding Chinese drone-maker SZ DJI Technology Co. to the agency’s so-called covered entity list.
* Tory Bruno, the chief executive officer of Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp.’s rocket joint venture United Launch Alliance, has resigned after serving in the position for nearly 12 years.
* A Silicon Valley-focused banking startup backed by Palantir Technologies Inc. co-founder Peter Thiel is expected to raise $350 million in a funding round that would more than double its valuation.
* Cintas Corp. proposed a renewed takeover bid of UniFirst Corp. worth about $3.96 billion in equity in another attempt to buy out the rival uniform maker.
* Wingtech Technology Co. Chairwoman Ruby Yang warned that global chip supplies remain at risk unless the Chinese company’s control over Dutch chipmaker Nexperia BV is restored.
* Telecom Italia SpA’s board approved a proposal to convert the company’s savings shares into ordinary stock and to reduce its share capital, a long-delayed change that would simplify its capital structure.
* Telefonica SA will book a cost of €2.5 billion ($2.9 billion) to pay for the exit of about 5,500 employees as part of a sweeping cost-reduction plan.
* Roche Holding AG Chief Executive Thomas Schinecker said the new US drug deal signed last week could raise prices for some medicines in Switzerland.
* Harbour Energy Plc agreed to acquire LLOG Exploration Co. for $3.2 billion, marking the UK company’s entry into the deepwater US Gulf of Mexico.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.2%
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index rose 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1757
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.3457
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 157.00 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $88,346.39
* Ether rose 0.4% to $2,984.57
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.16%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.90%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.54%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.50%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.84%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.5% to $57.94 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 2.4% to $4,442.78 an ounce
Have a wonderful Evening!
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Shima
“I don’t want it good. I want it Tuesday.”– Jack Leonard Warner
Shima Zangeneh
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828