Dear Friends,
Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.
December 17, 1902 – Guglielmo Marconi builds one of the first radio stations. Observer Voice
December 17, 1992 – NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) signed by leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The History Calendar
December 17, 1989 – The animated TV series "The Simpsons" premiered on Fox. Go to article
Wright Brothers Day (U.S., celebrating first flight) Wikipedia
1936 – Pope Francis — First Jesuit pope and first from the Americas. Jagranjosh.com
1974 – Sarah Paulson — American actress known for American Horror Story and The People v. O.J. Simpson. history.com
1778 – Sir Humphry Davy — British chemist who discovered sodium and potassium and invented the miner’s safety lamp. Encyclopedia Britannica
1874 – W.L. Mackenzie King — Longest-serving Prime Minister of Canada. Encyclopedia Britannica
Astronomers using the James Webb Space Telescope report that a powerful gamma-ray burst detected in March may have been produced by the explosion of a massive star just 730 million years after the Big Bang.
The newly excavated 4,500-year-old valley temple from ancient Egypt holds a "public calendar" and a roof for astronomical observation.
Warming temperatures appear to be driving genetic mutations in some polar bears to help them survive the shifting climatic conditions.
The novel design for the new qubit uses the chemical element tantalum in tandem with a special silicon substrate, creating what researchers say are the most coherent superconducting qubits to date.
Warner Bros. chose Netflix over Paramount — again. Now what?
Warner Bros. Discovery has officially rejected Paramount’s hostile takeover bid, advising its shareholders to do the same.
But the battle is far from over. Let’s break down what just happened and what to expect next.
One of the Apple Watch’s biggest threats has no screen, weighs about a fifth of an ounce and charges a monthly subscription for most of its features. Yet Oura is on pace for $1 billion in sales this year, boosted by its presence on the fingers of celebrities including Jennifer Aniston, Gwyneth Paltrow and Michael Dell.
Welcome to home robotics limbo
Tech historians may look back on 2025 as a kind of trough in consumer robotics.
Two decades ago, Roombas blew everyone’s mind. The company that made them, iRobot, was so flush by 2015 it started its own venture capital arm. But after years of struggling to compete against cheaper competitors from China and a failed acquisition effort by Amazon in 2024, iRobot has been spinning out.
Ticket prices raise the question: Will this be the ‘prawn sandwich’ World Cup?
Former Manchester United captain Roy Keane was notoriously fearless and intimidating. During his 12 years at Old Trafford, the Irish midfielder got his hands on 17 trophies and left his mark on many an opposing player.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Harbin, China
A tourist takes photographs in front of an ice sculpture at the world’s largest snow and ice theme park, which opened on Wednesday
Photograph: Tyne Chin/Getty Images
Bel Ombre, Mauritius
Joakim Lagergren of Sweden plays a shot during the pro-am event before the Mauritius Open golf tournament
Photograph: Stuart Franklin/Getty Images
Yakutsk, Russia
People walk along a street as the temperature falls below -47C (-52.6F) in the Sakha Republic’s capital
Photograph: Vadim Skryabin/Reuters
Market Closes for December 17th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
47885.97 | -228.29 |
| -0.47% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6721.43 | -78.83 |
| -1.16% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22693.32 | -418.14 |
| -1.81% | ||
| TSX | 31250.02 | -13.91 |
| -0.04% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 49512.28 | +128.99 |
| +0.26% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25468.78 | +233.37 |
| +0.92% | ||
| SENSEX | 84559.65 | -120.21 |
| -0.14% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9774.32 | +89.53 |
| +0.92% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.427 | 3.397 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.875 | 3.838 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1528 | 4.1450 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.8262 | 4.8130 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7253 | 0.7269 |
| US $ |
1.3785 | 1.3755 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 0.6178 | 1.6185 |
| US $ |
0.8516 | 1.1741 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4324.20 | 4315.85 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 55.27 | 56.82 |
Market Commentary:
📰 On this day in 1903, the airplane age was born at 10:35 a.m. when Orville Wright flew about 10 feet above the frigid sand dunes of Kitty Hawk, N.C., covering a distance of about 120 feet in 12 seconds.
C🎅A🎅N🎅A🎅D🎅A
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 31,250.02 in Toronto.
Bank of Nova Scotia contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.7%.
Toromont Industries Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 5.6%.
Today, 93 of 212 shares fell, while 115 rose; 4 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
* This year, the index rose 26%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 4.1%
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.6% below its 52-week high on Dec. 12, 2025 and 40.6% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.8% in the past 5 days and rose 3.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 on a trailing basis and 19.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.96t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 13.15% compared with 13.44% in the previous session and the average of 14.83% over the past month
Index Points
Financials | -80.0380| -0.8| 5/19
Information Technology | -15.6408| -0.5| 3/6
Industrials | -9.1678| -0.3| 11/17
Communication Services | -0.4665| -0.1| 2/3
Health Care | 0.2427| 0.3| 2/2
Consumer Staples | 0.7427| 0.1| 6/5
Real Estate | 0.7636| 0.2| 7/10
Consumer Discretionary | 0.9458| 0.1| 5/4
Utilities | 1.1120| 0.1| 8/6
Energy | 36.3967| 0.8| 28/9
Materials | 51.2060| 0.9| 38/12
Scotiabank | -14.8600| -1.7| 69.5| 27.6
Celestica | -13.4500| -4.2| 53.8| 186.5
Bank of Montreal | -12.7200| -1.4| -30.4| 26.9
Suncor | 7.8050| 1.6| -25.0| 14.9
Barrick Mining | 11.4500| 1.6| -10.9| 169.2
Canadian Natural | Resources | 13.8800| 2.2| 57.5| -1.0
Cargojet | 6.3| 0.4990| 239.1| -25.6
Baytex Energy | 4.6| 0.8880| -4.8| 17.3
Discovery Silver| Corp | 4.6| 1.7510| -2.8| 1,193.0
Toromont Industries | -5.6| -5.3750| 58.2| 39.4
TransAlta | -5.4| -1.8630| 98.7| -13.0
Badger Infrastructure | Solutions Ltd | -4.9| -0.8890| 18.3| 102.2
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 22 points at midday with financials, down1%, the biggest decliner.
Healthcare is the biggest gainer, up 2.4%, followed by miners, up 1.3%.
Canada’s population fell 0.4% quarter over quarter in the sharpest, and only second, quarter-over-quarter decline on record dating back to the 1940s, Bank of Montreal noted Wednesday.
The population grew just 0.2% year over year in the fourth quarter, as of Oct. 1, and was down sharply from highs above 3% seen just over a year ago, noted the bank after Statistics Canada released data on the topic earlier Wednesday.
BMO had argued that the explosion in population growth, to nearly 1.3 million people within a year at one point, was playing a major role in many economic issues Canadian policymakers had been struggling to deal with. That included housing affordability; surging rent; productivity and infrastructure stress; services inflation; and youth unemployment rates.
The normalization of population growth is now well underway and is being immediately felt on the ground in some areas, BMO added.
Global financial crime auditors interviewed Canadian financial companies and 13 government agencies over three weeks in November, five sources with knowledge of the visit said, Reuters reported Wednesday.
It said the interviews included executives at TD Bank (TD.TO, TD), which last year paid the largest-ever fine to settle a U.S. money laundering case.
What would normally be a routine once a decade review has caused concerns in Ottawa and in Toronto’s financial sector, as Canada reckons with TD’s $3 billion fine, sources told Reuters.
It noted the visit also coincided with new indictments against fugitive Canadian Olympic snowboarder turned alleged cocaine kingpin Ryan Wedding.
Reuters said a negative report from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an international crime watchdog, could hurt Canada’s foreign investments and the country’s reputation as Prime Minister Mark Carney tries to boost productivity and make the Canadian economy less reliant on the United States.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Volatility lashed Wall Street, pushing high- valuation technology shares and crypto lower while bonds pared losses after a senior Federal Reserve official signaled room for rate cuts.
A tech rout hit stocks amid growing skepticism about the artificial-intelligence trade.
Nvidia Corp. sank 3.8%.
Losses accelerated as the S&P 500 breached a key technical level, with the index down 1.2%.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 1.9%.
In late hours, Micron Technology Inc. gave an upbeat forecast.
Even the slightest hint of trouble around data centers is enough to spook investors banking on the AI boom.
The latest hiccup revolved around Oracle Corp.’s financing for a data center in Michigan.
While it’s largely moving along, Blue Owl Capital, a longtime partner in its AI infrastructure build-out, is not contributing equity.
The shares plunged about 5.5%.
For years, investing in big techs has been a no brainer, given their stalwart balance sheets.
Now, there’s concern over whether the sector — which has soared during the bull market — can keep justifying its lofty valuations and ambitious AI spending.
“AI remains the market’s defining investment theme, but signs of fatigue are emerging,” said Jack Ablin at Cresset Capital Management.
“Sector valuations are elevated, infrastructure spending is unprecedented, and enthusiasm mirrors past speculative cycles.”
While this boom rests on a far stronger foundation than the dot-com era, Ablin notes that hyperscalers are deploying more than $400 billion annually into AI infrastructure, but enterprise monetization lags sharply.
That’s an imbalance that could drive volatility in the year ahead, he said.
“Investors are beginning to rotate toward sectors with clearer earnings visibility as AI margins peak and capital intensity rises,” he noted.
“The next 12-18 months will determine whether this cycle matures into a sustainable growth engine or contracts under its own scale.”
A four-day slide in the S&P 500 drove the gauge below the average price of the past 50 days.
Its equal-weighted version – which gives Dollar Tree Inc. as much clout as Apple Inc. – edged only mildly lower.
The UBS US AI Winners Index tumbled almost 3.5%.
Bonds bounced from session lows as Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for further rate cuts.
While investors saw his comments as more dovish, the official also warned there’s no need to rush amid elevated inflation.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.15%.
The dollar rose 0.2%.
Bitcoin sank about 2%.
Oil climbed as geopolitical risks mount from Russia to Venezuela.
As the year draws to a close, a clearer narrative has emerged in recent weeks: the mega-cap technology stocks that have powered this bull run may be losing their ability to carry the market on their own, according to Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com.
“Confidence in the sector is being challenged, particularly over whether stretched valuations and heavy spending on artificial intelligence can still be justified,” he said.
If we see renewed strength in tech names, Razaqzada noted, then this could be the catalyst to drive markets to new highs.
“You want sectors that have been leading all year to at least hold up while other sectors play catch up,” he concluded.
The recovery from the November lows in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has begun to lose momentum as disappointing figures from Broadcom Inc. and Oracle Corp.
last week dampened AI enthusiasm, noted Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.
“Additionally, rotation pressure out of tech has accelerated, with positioning data showing rising demand for smaller-cap and value stocks,” he said.
Since US stocks hit their near-term low on Nov. 20, the small-cap Russell 2000 has gained about 8% while a Bloomberg gauge of Magnificent Seven companies has risen 4.5%.
The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has been outperforming its cap-weighted counterpart over the same period.
The stock market is in a classic rotation period, not a correction, and the long overdue rotation, where investors are moving money out of overvalued tech stocks, is in its early innings, according to David Bahnsen at The Bahnsen Group.
“While grotesque valuations in big tech stocks can get even more grotesque and the party can continue for some time, we believe the safer route is to lean into this current rotation by increasing exposure to the energy, consumer staples and health care sectors,” he said.
To Bahnsen, momentum can carry things a long way past fundamentals, as history has made clear.
“It does appear there is now real market fatigue in this singular AI infrastructure story, and the circularity issue in revenue, the rationalization of capex, and the fact that not all players can win at once, is seemingly becoming more accepted by markets,” he concluded.
Doubts about the viability of the practicality of the aggressive buildout plans for massive AI data centers continue, said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
“We believe the AI story remains intact and expect a more widespread capture of AI value creation to support a broadening of leadership in equity markets,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We recommend diversification beyond the enabling layer and into the application layer and suggest limiting exposure to companies trading at elevated price-to- earnings multiples.”
At Miller Tabak, Matt Maley notes that this is the last full week of trading for the year, so we could see some “fireworks” over the next few days.
“As much as investors want to focus on other groups, the tech sector is still going to determine what happens over the next two weeks,” he said.
“Given their weighting in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, there is just no way around it.”
“The AI trade continues to take on water,” said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG.
“While it’s still premature to say this is ‘the’ top for AI stocks, evidence is growing that it’s more than just a speed bump.
The other question is if in fact AI is losing its leadership, where will new leadership be?”
If the AI trade unwinds further, and we see a more broad-based correction, Krinsky notes new leadership might not go up in absolute terms but simply outperform on a relative basis.
“We don’t think the AI rally is dead yet, and expect it to last through 2026,” said John Higgins at Capital Economics.
“That view underpins our forecasts for strong gains in those equity markets most exposed to it, particularly the US and some of those in Asia.”
Higgins also noted that other equity markets, and “risky” assets more broadly, might have less to gain, though.
And he doesn’t think the good times for tech will last forever, and suspects valuations will eventually become sufficiently stretched that a correction is likely.
His base case, though, is that that won’t happen until 2027.
Strategists’ S&P 500 Index Estimates for Year-End 2026 “The keys are earnings and interest rates,” said Nicholas Bohnsack at Strategas.
“Profits are largely behaving. Suspicion is warranted over the vendor-financed alchemy aiding M7 hyperscalers and adjacent AI ecosystem distributaries.
Thus, the continued improvement in the non-tech revenue stack is important.”
The message from sell-side analysts is that there’s still fuel in the tank for Corporate America.
Their aggregated bottom-up price targets suggest the pace of income growth in the S&P 500 will accelerate each year through 2027, data compiled by Jefferies show.
That would translate into three consecutive years of double-digit earnings expansion.
All Wall Street strategists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the S&P 500 to go higher by the end of 2026.
At 7,555, their average projection points to an about 12% gain from current levels.
A fourth year of double-digit returns would extend this bull run to a streak seen only three times in the past century.
“While US stocks are likely to experience bouts of volatility next year as markets digest evolving profit dynamics, we expect big tech’s secular drivers to remain a source of strength for major benchmarks,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
US PREVIEW: Double CPI to Flag Peak for Tariff Pass-Through Traders also geared up for Thursday’s inflation reading amid a dose of skepticism as the consumer price index runs the risk of being less reliable than usual due to government- shutdown disruptions.
The November CPI report will offer only a partial snapshot of inflation, without monthly changes for most of the price categories.
Much of the October price information was unable to be collected and November data gathering was also delayed by the government closure.
That explains the relative sense of apathy regarding the data, with options traders betting the S&P 500 will swing 0.7% in either direction, according to data compiled by Barclays Plc.
That’s sharply lower than the 1% average realized move spurred by the 12 reports delivered through September.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that 36% of investors believe that the market reaction to CPI will be “risk- on,” 46% said “mixed/negligible” and only 18% “risk-off.”
Earlier this week, the high-profile jobs report also drew limited reaction.
The data was impacted by the federal shutdown and proved to be a noisy reading showing the labor-market is slowing but not collapsing.
“The muted response to the employment data is likely to be repeated – after all, the data quality concerns with payrolls are also applicable to CPI,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
“At least insofar as there will be a reasonable amount of skepticism regardless of how the data ultimately comes in.”
Outlining a scenario where inflation continues to slow through 2026, Waller said in a CNBC forum that monetary policy settings are up to 100 basis points above neutral — the level where the Fed is neither restraining growth nor stoking price pressures. Waller, who is under consideration to be the next Fed chair, was expected to meet for an interview with President Donald Trump Wednesday.
Waller’s shot for the Fed chair job improved this week, alongside that of Kevin Warsh, as doubts emerged over frontrunner Kevin Hassett, according to Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.
“From a market perspective, Waller is the top pick, as he is a known quantity inside and outside the Fed, he has credibility and knows how to build consensus,” said Chris Low at FHN Financial.
The Fed lowered rates for a third straight meeting last week to support what Chair Jerome Powell called a “gradually cooling” labor market with “significant” risks of a further slowdown.
However, Fed officials are split over whether more cuts are needed next year.
The median Fed official penciled in just one reduction in 2026, according to rate projections released alongside the decision, but some policymakers see no further cuts.
Traders, meanwhile, have been counting on two.
Corporate Highlights:
* Amazon.com Inc. is reorganizing teams working on artificial intelligence projects, putting a top leader from the company’s cloud division in charge of a new unit.
** OpenAI is in initial discussions to raise at least $10 billion from Amazon and use its chips, a potential win for the online retailer’s effort to broaden its AI industry presence and compete with Nvidia Corp.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google is rolling out a more efficient and affordable version of its most powerful artificial intelligence model across its products, building on the company’s momentum after the successful launch of Gemini 3.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., the parent of HBO and CNN, advised its shareholders to reject a hostile takeover bid by Paramount Skydance Corp. in favor of its original agreement with streaming giant Netflix Inc., deeming the Paramount offer “inferior” and “inadequate.”
* Comcast Corp.’s offer to merge its NBCUniversal division with Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. valued the cable giant’s media and theme-park assets at about $81 billion, a Warner Bros. filing suggests.
* Ford Motor Co. canceled a 9.6 trillion won ($6.5 billion) battery agreement with LG Energy Solution Ltd. after the US automaker rolled back its electric vehicle ambitions.
* General Mills Inc.’s sales in the latest quarter exceeded Wall Street expectations as a strategy to improve packaging and marketing while also lowering some prices paid off.
** The chief executive of General Mills said more North American consumers are buying food when it goes on sale, the latest signal that households are feeling pinched by the economy.
* SpaceX has told its employees the company is entering a regulatory quiet period, people familiar with the matter said, taking the rocket and satellite maker a step closer to an initial public offering slated for 2026.
* Air taxi maker Joby Aviation Inc. said it plans to double its US manufacturing capacity to as many as four aircraft per month by 2027, using both its main production site in California and another in Ohio.
* Bankrupt Spirit Aviation Holdings Inc. is in revived discussions to merge with Frontier Group Holdings, people familiar with the matter said, in a deal that could rescue the deep-discount airline from insolvency at a time of stiff competition from larger US carriers.
* US prosecutors charged the founder of bankrupt subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings with conspiring to defraud lenders and investors, in a sweeping indictment of the leadership of a used car dealer and financing company that collapsed in a wave of scandal in September.
* The White House is set to announce drug pricing deals with pharmaceutical heavyweights Novartis AG and Roche Holding AG as soon as Friday, according to people familiar with the situation, further easing trade tensions with Switzerland after a standoff
over tariffs.
* The European Union Aviation Safety Agency is proposing inspections of some Airbus SE A320 jets and requiring carriers to repair any out-of-spec panels found on the fuselages.
* BBVA SA is weighing a series of large share buybacks as it seeks to return capital to investors following its failed bid for Banco Sabadell SA.
* Julius Baer Group Ltd. is telling some clients with lower balances at the bank to increase the amount of funds they invest with the wealth manager or go elsewhere, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Continental AG appointed Christian Kötz to lead the German tire maker as it prepares to sell its ContiTech industrial unit, the final step in its breakup plan.
* Mercedes-Benz Group AG unveiled a sweeping management overhaul that includes the departure of longtime design chief Gorden Wagener, underscoring Chief Executive Officer Ola Källenius’ tightening control as the automaker heads into a make-or-break
2026.
* Raiffeisen Bank International AG will appoint a former finance chief as its next chief executive officer after years of unsuccessful attempts to sell its Russian unit.
* Diageo Plc agreed to sell its majority stake in East African Breweries Ltd. to Japan’s Asahi Group Holdings Ltd. in a $2.3 billion deal as the struggling UK distiller streamlines operations to speed its turnaround.
* TotalEnergies SE Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said rising demand for oil will help to underpin prices, despite their recent slump on growing concerns about a global surplus.
“We’re entering a new stage in the AI frontier — one that’s poised to mint new winners and losers and will likely prove more volatile than the straight line up that we’ve seen so far. That indicates a turbulent 2026 for the stock market.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.1%
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index fell 0.3%
* UBS US AI Winners Index fell 3.3%
* Oracle fell 5.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1741
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3380
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 155.70 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2% to $85,978.67
* Ether fell 4.2% to $2,826.78
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.15%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.86%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.47%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.48%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.83%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.9% to $56.88 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $4,344.25 an ounce
–With assistance from Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Shima
"Progress is a nice word. But change is its motivator. And change has its enemies. Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly" — Robert F Kennedy
Shima Zangeneh
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828