Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Monday
Carolann is away from the office. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.
1791 – The Bill of Rights in the United States is ratified, guaranteeing fundamental freedoms like freedom of speech and religion. Jagranjosh
1939 – Worldwide screening of the film “Gone with the Wind” in Atlanta. Jagranjosh
1978 – The United States officially recognizes the People’s Republic of China, ending official diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Time and Date
2001 – The Leaning Tower of Pisa reopens to visitors after years of restoration. History.com
2011 – The United States officially declares the end of the Iraq War, withdrawing troops from the country. Jagranjosh
2004 – American telecommunications giants Sprint Corp. and Nextel Communications Inc. announced they would merge in a $35 billion deal. Go to the article
1832 – Gustave Eiffel, engineer and designer of the Eiffel Tower. History.com
1952 – Julie Taymor, American director (The Lion King). History.com
1979 – Adam Brody, American actor (The O.C.). History.com
A scale almost too big to imagine’: Scientists spot monster black hole roaring with winds at more than 130 million mphAstronomers have spotted a supermassive black hole whipping up cosmic winds at record speeds.
Giant structure discovered deep beneath Bermuda is unlike anything else on Earth
A thick layer of more than 12 miles of rock may explain why Bermuda seems to float above the surrounding ocean.
Comet 3I/ATLAS is getting greener and brighter as it approaches Earth, new images reveal
New images taken with the Gemini North telescope in Hawaii confirm that the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS has gotten brighter and greener since its close flyby of the sun in October.
The genetic link between squids and octopuses may just be found in the vampire squid genome.
Scientists have discovered that over half a mile of DNA could hold over 360,000 terabytes of data.
Some dolphins appear to have orca friends. Scientists think they have figured out what’s going on
A pod of Pacific white-sided dolphins off the coast of British Columbia have been observed cooperating with orcas, a traditional enemy that’s better known for taking out great white sharks than friendly interaction.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Linfen, China
An aerial drone photo shows a view of the snow-covered terraces in north China’s Shanxi province
Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock
Nazaré, Portugal
JoĂŁo Chianca of Brazil rides a wave during a World Surf League big wave challenge session
Photograph: Filipe Amorim/AFP/Getty Images
Lijiang City, China
A stack composite photo shows the starry sky during the Geminid meteor shower, one of the most spectacular of the year, which reached its peak on Sunday
Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock
Market Closes for December 15th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
48416.56 | -41.49 |
| -0.09% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6818.51 | -10.90 |
| -0.16% | ||
| NASDAQ | 23057.41 | -137.76 |
| -0.59% | ||
| TSX | 31483.44 | -43.95 |
| -0.14% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 50168.11 | -668.44 |
| -1.31% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25628.88 | -347.91 |
| -1.34% | ||
| SENSEX | 85213.36 | -54.30 |
| -0.06% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9751.31 | +102.28 |
| +1.06% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.413 | 3.441 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.855 | 3.882 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1723 | 4.1841 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.8466 | 4.8445 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7259 | 0.7259 |
| US $ |
1.3774 | 1.3774 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 0.6189 | 1.6176 |
| US $ |
0.8508 | 1.1753 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4346.95 | 4230.35 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 56.82 | 57.44 |
Market Commentary:
đź“° On this day in 1886, total daily trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange exceeded 1 million shares for the first time.
C🎄A🎄N🎄A🎄D🎄A
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 31,527.39 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Celestica Inc. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 12.9%.
Today, 109 of 212 shares fell, while 101 rose; 6 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 27%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 5%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.7%
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 41.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 on a trailing basis and 19.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$5.02t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.55% compared with 14.44% in the previous session and the average of 15.11% over the past month
Index Points
Information Technology | -55.1858| -1.7| 2/7
Financials | -43.3697| -0.4| 11/13
Materials | -36.3314| -0.6| 17/33
Energy | -18.6792| -0.4| 18/18
Industrials | -1.9112| -0.1| 8/21
Consumer Staples | -0.6075| -0.1| 7/4
Utilities | 1.3104| 0.1| 8/6
Real Estate | 2.4334| 0.5| 16/3
Communication Services | 4.4868| 0.7| 5/0
Health Care | 5.1571| 6.2| 3/1
Consumer Discretionary | 9.3500| 0.9| 6/3
Celestica | -50.3500| -12.9| 134.2| 217.9
Brookfield Corp | -19.0100| -2.0| -5.6| 14.1
Cameco | -17.7800| -4.4| 131.7| 70.4
Curaleaf | 4.7260| 37.8| 1,048.9| 127.7
Nutrien | 8.4440| 3.0| 0.9| 34.4
Dollarama | 9.1610| 2.4| 61.5| 44.2
Curaleaf | 37.8| 4.7260| 1,048.9| 127.7
CAE | 5.4| 4.7080| 88.7| 12.5
Parex Resources | 4.1| 0.4810| -19.2| 23.5
Celestica | -12.9| -50.3500| 134.2| 217.9
Energy Fuels | -7.9| -2.7580| -7.1| 171.7
NexGen Energy | -5.5| -3.2270| -0.5| 29.6
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 58 points at midday with energy, down 1.8%, the worst performer.
Limiting losses are gains in financials, up 0.4%.
Monday’s focus was on the release of Canadian inflation data for November that came in steady with mixed details.
Headline inflation held at 2.2%.
The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of underlying inflation mostly eased, excluding food inflation, which rose to the highest rate since the end of 2023, notes RBC.
Moderating underlying inflation should reinforce that the central bank will not need to pivot to outright interest rate hikes in the near-term, but RBC also expects the economy has shown enough signs of improvement that additional cuts to the overnight rate will not be needed.
Existing Home Sales data for November was also released today, with TD noting Canadian existing home sales dipped 0.6% month-on-month in November, partially reversing October’s 1% m/m gain.
Ontario (sales down 1.5% m/m) and Quebec (-2% m/m), drove the national decline.
Partially offsetting November’s national monthly decline was gains in B.C., Alberta, and Saskatchewan (all up 3% m/m).
Sales were lower elsewhere in the country.
Also, Canadian new listings dropped 1.6% m/m in November.
With sales declining less than new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened up a touch.
However, at 52.7%, the ratio remained below its long-term average, pointing to below-average Canadian average home price growth in coming months.
TD also noted average home prices edged 0.3% m/m lower in November.
Weakness was relatively broad-based, with prices down or flat in six of 10 provinces, headlined by drops in Manitoba (-2% m/m), Alberta and Quebec (both down 1% m/m).
Prices declined by about 0.5% m/m in B.C. and Ontario.
Meanwhile, they were up about 1.5% m/m, on average, in the Atlantic and Saskatchewan.
Meanwhile, the MLS home price index fell by 0.4% m/m and were down 3.7% on a year-on-year basis.
"After rebounding from early-year woes in the spring and most of the summer, Canadian home sales growth has cooled," TD said, noting November was a soft month for resale housing, with Canadian sales and prices both down.
However, TD added, November’s sales dip was small, and sales have climbed for six of the past eight months.
Canadian average home price growth was "quite muted" in November, and TD thinks it will continue to grow at a sub-trend pace in coming quarters, weighed down by loose supply/demand balances in B.C. and Ontario.
In contrast, tighter markets should fuel stronger price gains elsewhere in the country — Quebec looks like a prime candidate for price outperformance in 2026 (despite November’s soft showing), with supply/demand conditions strongly in the favour of sellers heading into 2026, TD said.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The last full trading week of 2025 started with stocks, bonds and the dollar wavering as Wall Street geared up for key economic data that will help shape the Federal Reserve rate outlook.
On the eve of the jobs report, the S&P 500 closed mildly lower.
A renewed tech slide saw Broadcom Inc. posting its worst three-day plunge since 2020.
Oracle Corp. extended its multi- session selloff to about 17%.
A rout in cryptocurrencies also kept a lid on riskier assets.
Treasury two-year yields edged down amid bets the Fed will cut rates twice next year to support the job market even as inflation shows signs of stickiness.
The dollar barely budged but closed at the lowest since October.
“Investors appear indecisive about making bold moves ahead of a heavy plate of high-profile economic data,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
Following the Fed’s latest decision to slash rates, the November jobs report — due on Tuesday — is expected to show a sluggish labor market.
The reading will also include an estimate of October payrolls — figures that were delayed by the federal shutdown.
The fallout from the longest-ever government closure extended to another key indicator: the consumer price index scheduled for Thursday.
With the Fed still appearing to be more focused on labor- market weakness than inflation, we’re likely facing a “bad news is good” scenario for the jobs report, according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“As long as the numbers don’t suggest employment is falling off a cliff, the markets may embrace soft data because it could lead to a more-dovish Fed,” he said.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran argued the policy stance is unnecessarily restrictive.
Fed Bank of New York President John Williams said policy is well positioned for next year following last week’s reduction.
His Boston counterpart Susan Collin noted the rate decision was a “close call” as she’s concerned about high inflation.
The S&P 500 closed below 6,820.
Megacaps were mixed, with Apple Inc. falling while Tesla Inc. climbed.
Small firms underperformed.
In late hours, B. Riley Financial Inc. said it filed its overdue second-quarter report with US regulators in a step toward staying listed.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.18%.
Bitcoin sank below $86,000.
The yen gained on bets the Bank of Japan will hike rates this week.
Oil slipped.
Moderate weakness in this week’s US job numbers could feed bullishness toward stocks by increasing the probability of
further Fed rate cuts, according to Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson.
“Markets are looking for a soft print,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com.
“Any downside surprise could see expectations for the next Fed rate cut pulled forward, while a hawkish surprise could lift the dollar sharply.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that expectations for the market reaction to Tuesday’s jobs data are about evenly distributed: 29% said “risk-on,” 36% “risk-off” and 36% “mixed/negligible.”
At Evercore, Krishna Guha notes that the worse the data, the more the market will bet that the Fed will abandon its attempt to pause following the December rate reduction.
However, Guha cautions against thinking that – absent a very extreme outcome – the report will be decisive in terms of whether the Fed cuts again in the near term.
“We think the December print – the first relatively clean print after the shutdown – will have a much bigger bearing on whether the Fed might still cut in January,” he concluded.
There are obvious data-quality concerns given that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been playing catchup following the government shutdown, according to Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
Therefore, investors might take a more cautious view to trading this week’s key data prints.
“However, in light of the lack of fundamental information regarding the performance of the real economy during the shutdown, the insights within the payrolls and inflation reports will nonetheless set the tone for the US rates market as year- end, holiday-trading mode quickly approaches,” he noted.
If market expectations are right, that could set the stage for another solid run for Treasuries, which are headed for their best year since 2020.
Against that backdrop, traders are building options positions that would pay off if market sentiment shifts to a rate cut in the first quarter.
For now, another reduction isn’t fully priced in until mid-year, with a second one in October.
To Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., the Fed has room to deliver the 50 basis points of easing priced-in by Fed funds futures over the next 12 months.
“The decline in the hiring rate suggests labor demand is weak and points to downside risk to this week’s nonfarm payrolls release,” he added.
“This year is a little different given the delayed releases of various economic data points thanks to the recent shutdown”, wrote Susquehanna International Group’s Christopher Jacobson.
“That arguably sets the stage for greater volatility, particularly this week.”
Derivatives strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. including Bram Kaplan note that the S&P 500 options market is moderately underpricing the upcoming payrolls report compared to historical volatility around releases.
Markets are bracing for a roughly 0.7% move in either direction on the print, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Even as it appears that the Fed is more focused on the labor market at this time, the market is still hungry for inflation data, according to Rick Gardner at RGA Investments At HSBC, Max Kettner says that while he remains “aggressively risk-on” into next year, 2026 might well turn out rockier than the past eight months.
“We think the biggest risk in the coming months is a significant rise in US rates vol,” he said.
“However, in our view, this is unlikely to be a theme for the coming weeks.”
Kettner noted that Treasury yields are still quite far from the “danger zone” – the area where risk asset valuations are increasingly hit by higher yields.
Citigroup Inc.’s Scott Chronert sees the S&P 500 climbing to 7,700 points by the end of 2026, with robust earnings and expectations of easing monetary policy at the heart of the forecast.
“A generally supportive Fed is a key assumption in our playbook,” Chronert wrote in a note.
Meantime, Oppenheimer Asset Management strategists maintained an overweight call on US stocks, saying they “expect the US economy and markets to lead the world economy into some kind of a new normal.”
The team led by John Stoltzfus expects the rally to broaden in 2026 as economic fundamentals remain supportive of continued revenue and earnings growth.
“We believe investors should position to gain from the expected equity rally in the coming year, adding exposure to tech, health care, utilities, and banking for those under- allocated to the US market,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Haefele expects the S&P 500 to reach 7,300 by June next year and 7,700 by the end of 2026.
Corporate Highlights:
* Amazon.com Inc.’s business ties with Israel’s military and the US Department of Homeland Security are the focus of a shareholder proposal demanding that the company investigate whether such contracts comply with its responsible AI policies.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. applied to become a bank in the US, looking to take advantage of the Trump administration’s openness to financial-technology companies entering the banking system.
* iRobot Corp., the company that revolutionized robot vacuum cleaners in the early 2000s with its Roomba model, filed for bankruptcy and proposed handing over control to its main Chinese supplier.
* General Motors Co. has cut a deal with Apple Inc. to bring the Apple Music app into Chevrolet and Cadillac models starting Monday, when the automaker will send it to vehicle owners with an over-the-air update.
* Ford Motor Co. announced a sweeping overhaul of its electric vehicle business after struggling for years to make it profitable.
* Target Corp., Walmart Inc. and other large grocery chains were warned by US regulators for continuing to sell ByHeart infant formula that’s been recalled because it’s potentially contaminated with spores that cause botulism.
* ServiceNow Inc. and Adobe Inc. were downgraded to underweight at Keybanc, which sees AI tools bringing a bigger hit to both software firms.
* PME, a Dutch pension fund overseeing about $70 billion, has severed ties with BlackRock Inc. based on an assessment that the world’s largest money manager no longer acts in its best interests on issues such as climate risk.
* Chevron Corp. lowered the price of Venezuelan crude offered to US refiners after a tanker was seized by American forces in the Caribbean and as global prices drifted lower.
* Spirit Aviation Holdings Inc. received a short-term lifeline from creditors after securing access to another tranche of financing, easing immediate pressure on the carrier as it works through its second bankruptcy in less than a year.
* Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. acquired almost $1 billion in Bitcoin for a second consecutive week, as the original digital asset treasury company continues to ramp up purchases following the recent pullback in the price of the largest cryptocurrency.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the US government are backing Korea Zinc Co.’s planned $7.4 billion smelter in Tennessee that will supply critical minerals essential for chip-making, defense and aerospace.
* Airbus SE supplier Sofitec Aero SL has told employees it is working on a joint plan with the planemaker to address panel- quality problems that have disrupted aircraft deliveries.
* Sanofi’s experimental multiple sclerosis drug got hit with two setbacks on Monday: a regulatory delay in the US as well as a failure in a late-stage clinical trial.
** Sanofi agreed to pay US biotech Dren Bio as much as $1.8 billion, including $100 million upfront, as the French company expands a push to develop medicines for immune-system diseases.
* Juventus Football Club SpA rose after Tether Holdings SA made a €1.1 billion ($1.3 billion) takeover bid to acquire the Italian football club at a 21% premium, an offer that was swiftly rejected by the Agnelli family’s holding company.
* Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. is nearing a deal to buy a minority stake in India’s Shriram Finance Ltd., according to people familiar with the matter, the latest foreign bank seeking to build a presence in the world’s most populous country.
* Troubled conglomerate Novonor SA is closer to a deal to sell its controlling stake in petrochemical giant Braskem SA to a fund advised by asset manager IG4 Capital.
* ASX Ltd. sank after Australia’s corporate regulator imposed a A$150 million ($99.6 million) capital charge on the firm, prompting the embattled exchange operator to slash its dividend.
What Bloomberg strategists say…
“Better labor market data or worse inflation data would mean last week’s equity broadening via a rotation into banks, industrials, and cyclicals was a harbinger of economic re- acceleration.
Given the rise in bond yields could start to work against higher-beta equities if 10-year yields break resistance at 4.20%, the Goldilocks outcome would be an upside surprise in jobs and an inline or downward surprise in the CPI reading.”
— Edward Harrison, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1749
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3373
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 155.26 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.3% to $85,569.51
* Ether fell 5.2% to $2,921.42
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.18%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.85%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.50%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.51%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.85%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $56.59 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Shima
"Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all production…"– Adam Smith
Shima Zangeneh
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828