Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Monday. Happy December 1st!
December 1, 1891: Basketball created.
December 1, 1913: The first drive-in automobile service station opened, in Pittsburgh. Go to article.
December 1, 1955:Rosa Parks arrested.
December 1, 1959: The Antarctic Treaty is signed by 12 countries, making the Antarctic continent a demilitarized zone to be preserved for scientific research.
December 1, 1962: Robert Moses announces he will quit his five New York State government posts, following a dispute with Governor Rockefeller.
Happy Birthday Chat GPT – b. 2022.
Lou Rawls, singer, b. 1935.
Woody Allen, film maker/actor, b.1935.
Richard Pryor, comedian, b. 1940.
Bette Midler, actress/vocalist, b.1945
| ‘No easy explanation’: Scientists are debating a 70-year-old UFO mystery as new images come to light |
Two new peer-reviewed papers claim thousands of unexplained light flashes in vintage Palomar telescope images show statistical ties to nuclear tests and UFO reports. Not everyone agrees with the paper’s conclusion. Read More.
| Scientists pull up first riches from ‘Holy Grail of shipwrecks’ that sank off Colombia in 1708 |
The shipwreck is considered to be one of the richest in the world and has rested at the bottom of the Caribbean Sea since 1708. Read More.
| ‘Potentially hazardous’ asteroid 2024 YR4 was Earth’s first real-life planetary defense test |
The discovery and swift monitoring of asteroid 2024 YR4 earlier this year represented Earth’s first real-life planetary defense test. Read More.
The year in pictures
This year, the world witnessed a relentless news cycle full of compelling and jarring images. Look back at the photos that defined 2025.
The most endangered marine mammal species in the world
Fewer than 10 of these porpoises are left. Can the species be saved?
AI-powered toys are here
Playtime is getting an upgrade with AI teddy bears and robotic companions that provide real-time responses to kids.
Holiday moviegoers bring big bucks to theaters
Movie theaters scored a much-needed boost over the Thanksgiving weekend thanks to these two films.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Frankfurt, Germany
The high-rise banking district seen through a haze of fog
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP
Nice, France
Lightning forks to the horizon as a jumbo jet departs from the Mediterranean coast
Photograph: Valéry Hache/AFP/Getty Images
Tokyo, Japan
Visitors take photographs of maple trees at Yoyogi Park
Photograph: Louise Delmotte/AP
Market Closes for December 1st, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
47279.33 | -427.09 |
| -0.90% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6812.63 | -36.46 |
| -0.53% | ||
| NASDAQ | 23275.92 | -89.77 |
| -0.38% | ||
| TSX | 31101.78 | -281.00 |
| -0.90% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 49584.14 | +280.86 |
| +0.57% | ||
| HANG SENG |
26033.26 | +174.37 |
| +0.67% | ||
| SENSEX | 85641.90 | -64.77 |
| -0.08% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9702.53 | -17.98 |
| -0.19% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.248 | 3.148 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.697 | 3.595 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.0865 | 4.0132 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.7368 | 4.6628 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7143 | 0.7154 |
| US $ |
1.3998 | 1.3976 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 0.6154 | 1.6249 |
| US $ |
0.8614 | 1.1608 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4191.05 | 4153.95 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 59.32 | 58.65 |
Market Commentary:
The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design. -Friedrich August von Hayek, 1899-1992.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.9% at 31,101.78 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.2% on Nov. 20 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.3%.
Celestica Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.3%.
Today, 137 of 212 shares fell, while 74 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 26%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 3.6%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1% below its 52-week high on Nov. 28, 2025 and 39.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.6% in the past 5 days and rose 2.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 19.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.98t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 14.31% compared with 15.09% in the previous session and the average of 14.95% over the past month
Index Points
Information Technology| -159.1168| -5.0| 2/7
Financials | -103.6616| -1.0| 3/21
Industrials | -20.2302| -0.6| 11/18
Real Estate | -5.3264| -1.1| 1/18
Consumer Discretionary| -3.5255| -0.3| 3/6
Utilities | -3.5131| -0.3| 2/12
Communication Services| -3.4127| -0.5| 0/5
Consumer Staples | -0.3826| 0.0| 5/6
Health Care | 1.5165| 1.9| 2/2
Materials | 3.3731| 0.1| 20/30
Energy | 13.2766| 0.3| 25/12
Shopify | -120.5000| -6.3| -12.8| 36.7
Celestica | -28.0900| -7.3| -15.7| 235.6
RBC | -20.1700| -1.0| -2.0| 23.5
Enbridge | 7.7810| 0.8| -8.9| 12.2
Barrick Mining | 10.0300| 1.4| 11.8| 165.9
Nutrien | 10.0500| 3.6| 53.1| 31.0
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell near 280 points on Monday, largely on some profit taking after last week’s four record closes, even as commodity prices were higher and as CIBC said its "cautiously optimistic that a year-end rally is evolving".
The resources-heavy S&PTSX Composite Index closed down 281 points, or 0.9%, to 31,101.78, with most sectors lower, led by Info Tech, down 4.1%, and Financials down 1% ahead of the fiscal fourth-quarter earnings season for Canada’s big banks that starts tomorrow.
Sectors that were higher today included the Battery Metals Index, up 3.4%, and Health Care, up 2.75%.
Scotiabank (BNS.TO, BNS) will kick off the bank earnings season Tuesday.
For Q4 EPS, the FactSet consensus forecast is $1.85 versus 1.57 a year earlier.
For revenues, the FactSet consensus is for $9,450.5 million versus $8,526 million.
Of commodities today, gold traded higher by midafternoon Monday, climbing for a seventh-straight session as traders anticipate another cut to interest rates from the Federal Reserve next week.
Gold for February delivery was up $18.50 to US$4,273.40 per ounce, after earlier touching US$4,299.60, the highest since the Oct. 20 record price of US$4,359.40.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose as OPEC+ ended its production increases, declining to make a further monthly output hike in January at a weekend meeting, while Ukrainian attacks on a key Russian oil export terminal cut into supply.
WTI crude oil for January delivery closed up $0.77 to settle at US$59.32 per barrel, while February Brent oil was last seen up $0.79 to US$63.17.
CIBC, in a note entitled ‘Top 10 Best Ideas – Dec. 2025’, said it is "cautiously optimistic that a year-end rally is evolving", saying a "growing" number of indicators suggest as much, supported by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s likely 25 basis point cut on December 10.
According to CIBC, the seasonal setup is "favorable", with a recent trough in breadth and positive reversal in U.S. equity indices.
Historically, the bank noted, December has been one of the strongest months of the year for equity markets.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has averaged a 1.39% return in December at a rate of 74%, and TSX has averaged 1.74% (81%).
The NDX has averaged 1.75% (55% hit rate) since its inception in 1985.
CIBC noted most of the gains for SPX tend to occur in the second half of the month, a pattern that also aligns with TSX performance.
Additionally, U.S. small-cap stocks typically begin to outperform the SPX in mid-December.
This year, the bank said, the setup appears more promising, given the financial sector’s weight in the Russell 2000 Index and the potential net interest margin (NIM) benefit following a possible 25 basis point cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
From a regional perspective, CIBC added, TSX breadth readings are technically stronger than those of U.S. indices, as reflected in its relative strength — the TSX-to-SPX index ratio continues to trend above its rising 10-week and 40-week averages on the cusp of a new breakout, favoring the TSX index.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The start of a historically strong month on Wall Street saw stocks falling as traders shunned riskier corners of the market amid a selloff in cryptocurrencies.
A rout in Japanese debt rippled through global bonds.
Caution prevailed after a rally that drove the S&P 500 to its longest streak of monthly gains since 2021.
The Russell 2000 gauge of small caps slid over 1%.
Nearly $1 billion of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated during a sharp drop in prices that brought fresh momentum to a wide-ranging industry plunge.
Bitcoin sank to around $85,000.
Despite the reduced appetite for risk, Treasuries kicked off the week on the back foot as Japan’s bond yields climbed after comments from the central bank chief spurred rate-hike wagers.
Equities lost steam after investors wrapped up a choppy November with gains amid growing speculation that the Federal Reserve is more likely than not to ease policy this month.
“There’s some risk aversion creeping into the markets to start the week,” said Kyle Rodda at Capital.com.
“At the moment, it looks benign and without a fundamental impetus.”
Fed officials will get a dated reading on their preferred inflation gauge before next week’s rate decision.
The report due Friday is expected to show that inflationary pressures are stable, but sticky.
Yet the debate will largely center on the job market when policymakers meet Dec. 9-10.
The S&P 500 briefly fell below 6,800 but closed slightly above it.
Mega caps were mixed, with Alphabet Inc. down and Nvidia Corp. bouncing after Friday’s rout.
Energy producers joined an advance in oil.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose eight basis points to 4.09%.
The dollar wavered.
Data Monday showed US factory activity shrank in November by the most in four months.
In addition to Friday’s inflation data, other relevant economic data this week include ADP private employment figures for November and a preliminary reading of consumer confidence in December.
Still, key data like the jobs report won’t arrive until after the December rate decision next week, which “drastically dilutes this week’s ability to spring any material surprises in as far as rate cut expectations are concerned,” noted Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com.
“Stocks historically performed best when the economy is not in recession and the Fed is cutting interest rates,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“The latest available data suggest that the Fed is more likely to proceed with a 25-basis-point cut.”
She also noted that the current soft patch in the US economy is likely temporary, and global growth should accelerate in 2026.
“Robust earnings growth expectations should drive further equity gains,” said Hoffmann-Burchardi.
“We also believe that earnings growth is a more important indicator of forward returns, and our earnings growth estimates for major markets in the coming year are in a solid range of 7% and 14%, supporting near-term upside.”
As for seasonality, at least the set-up for December looks favorable.
Since 1990, the S&P 500 recorded its second-best average price return in December and second-lowest level of volatility, while chalking up the highest frequency of advances, according to Sam Stovall at CFRA.
While the late-November momentum could carry forward, Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial noted that December’s strength typically emerges in the second half of the month.
Historically, since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.4% gain in December and finished higher 73% of the time — the strongest positivity rate of any month, he said.
When December is positive, the average gain is 2.9%, compared to an average loss of 2.6% in negative years.
For the S&P 500 going back to 1928, years when the index has been up more than 10% heading into December (like this year) have historically seen the strongest December returns with an average gain of more than 2%, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
“Seasonality, solid consumer spending despite grumpy sentiment, and year-end positioning all set the stage for a Santa Claus rally this year, most likely in the back half of the month,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
Corporate Highlights:
* Nvidia Corp. invested $2 billion in chip-design software maker Synopsys Inc. as part of a broader engineering and design tie- up, aiming to infuse its AI-computing technology into more industries.
* OpenAI is taking an ownership stake in Thrive Holdings, an investment vehicle set up earlier this year by Thrive Capital, adding to a growing list of circular deals involving the ChatGPT maker and its backers.
* China’s DeepSeek unveiled two new versions of an experimental artificial-intelligence model it released weeks ago, adding fresh capabilities the startup said would help with combining reasoning and executing certain actions autonomously.
* Strategy Inc. said it had created a $1.4 billion reserve to fund future dividend and interest payments, in a bid to temper fears that the Bitcoin accumulator may be forced to sell some of its roughly $56 billion cryptocurrency haul if token prices continue to fall.
* First Digital Group is planning to go public by merging with a blank-check company, as crypto firms take advantage of more favorable regulations to list their shares on stock markets.
* Eli Lilly & Co. is cutting the price for introductory doses of its weight-loss drug Zepbound again, as competition heats up with rival Novo Nordisk A/S.
* Moderna Inc. fell after the Food and Drug Administration said in a memo late last week it would place new restrictions on which vaccines hit the market.
* Walt Disney Co.’s Zootopia 2 pulled in $272 million to claim China’s second-biggest opening ever for a foreign film, boosting the US studio in a key market.
* Barrick Mining Corp. is exploring an initial public offering of its prized North American gold assets that may be worth over $60 billion as the company grapples with mining setbacks and a management shakeup.
* Somnigroup International Inc., the world’s largest bedding company, proposed to buy one of its biggest suppliers, Leggett & Platt Inc., in an all-stock transaction worth about $1.6 billion.
* Airbus SE has alerted customers that hundreds of its A320neo family jets will need to be inspected for potential structural defects linked to faulty manufacturing techniques at a supplier.
* BHP Group offered around £40 billion ($53 billion) in its now- aborted attempt to acquire Anglo American Plc, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* A massive data breach at South Korea’s largest e-retailer Coupang Inc. caps what is set to be a record year for online leaks in the country, highlighting weaknesses in Seoul’s cyber defenses.
* BYD Co.’s sales fell for a third straight month as the world’s largest electric vehicle maker faces intensifying competition from rivals churning out popular models.
* China Vanke Co., the distressed builder that surprised markets last week when it proposed an unspecified delay in paying a local bond, has now asked holders to wait a year to be made whole, as it faces mounting liquidity pressure amid waning state support.
What Bloomberg strategists say…
“After a strong comeback last week, the S&P 500 recovered its losses for November and eked out a small increase.
That suggests the benchmark has now ploughed through its most turbulent period, which historically tends to bode well for December, too.
In the last three decades, there have been seven other occasions when the S&P 500 has risen from September through November, and most often, went on to extend gains in December.”
— Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.25%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1610
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3213
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 155.45 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 6.2% to $85,526.64
* Ether fell 8.8% to $2,757.84
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced eight basis points to 4.09%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.75%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.48%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.53%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced eight basis points to 4.74%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.5% to $59.45 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
To accomplish great things, we must not only act but also dream; not only plan but also believe. –Anatole France, 1844-1924.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828