Tangents: Happy Friday!
Carolann is away from the office for the Bloomberg Screentime 2025 Conference. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.
On Oct. 10, 1865 John Wesley Hyatt patents the billiard ball made from cellulose nitrate (celluloid) in Albany, New York (patent US50359A)
On Oct. 10, 1886 The tuxedo dinner jacket made its American debut at the autumn ball in Tuxedo Park, N.Y. Go to article
On Oct. 10, 1911 Robert Borden becomes the 8th Prime Minister of Canada
🧠 World Mental Health Day. Read more.
We’re all busy and stressed with work and family responsibilities, and it’s easy to get distracted and lose focus. On World Mental Health Day, there’s one important question to ask yourself.
Groundbreaking image shows two black holes orbiting each other for first time
Observations by a system of radio telescopes have offered the first visual evidence for the existence of black hole pairs. But vital follow-up observations are needed before we know for sure.
1,000-year-old burials of ‘first Christians’ in Poland discovered near medieval settlement
Archaeologists have uncovered part of a cemetery, including 1,000-year-old human skeletons, near the remains of a fortified medieval settlement in the village of Borkowo in Poland.
Satellites detected strange gravity signal coming from deep within Earth almost 20 years ago, study reveals
Researchers have discovered there was an anomaly in Earth’s gravitational field between 2006 and 2008, potentially caused by a mineral shift deep within Earth’s mantle. GRACE satellites detected a strange gravity signal at the time.
Comet 3I/ATLAS is losing water ‘like a fire hose’ on full blast, ‘rewriting what we thought we knew’ about alien star systems
Researchers have discovered that interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS has been shedding water, providing insights into the building blocks of life outside of our solar system and the evolution of interstellar comets.
Scientists discover gold nanoparticles hidden in spruce tree needles
Spruce tree needles contain tiny gold particles — and they could indicate large gold deposits beneath the surface.
*The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided to award the Nobel Peace Prize for 2025 to Maria Corina Machado “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.” Read more.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Thanksgiving in Canada has generally been about celebrating the fall harvest and giving thanks for the food it provides before the cold season sets in. Why do Canadians celebrate Thanksgiving in October, and what do they traditionally eat?
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Karma Valley, Tibet
Hikers in deep snow at Tangxiang camp in the Karma Valley
Photograph: Courtesy of FeiFei/AFP/Getty Images
Dunhuang, China
Tourists ride camels at Mingsha Mountain and Crescent Spring scenic spot during the holiday for National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival on 6 October in Gansu province
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images
Hitting the mall … a bull elk joins other elk in wandering through the parking lot of a shopping centre in Estes Park, near the Rocky Mountain national park, Colorado, US
Photograph: David Zalubowski/AP
Market Closes for October 10th , 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
45479.60 | -878.82 |
| -1.90 | ||
| S&P 500 | 6552.51 | -182.60 |
| -2.71% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22204.43 | -820.20 |
| -3.56% | ||
| TSX | 29850.89 | -419.09 |
| -1.38% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 48088.80 | -491.64 |
| -1.01% | ||
| HANG SENG |
26290.32 | -462.27 |
| -1.73% | ||
| SENSEX | 82500.82 | +328.72 |
| +0.40% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9427.47 | -81.93 |
| -0.86% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.169 | 3.203 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.673 | 3.721 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.0322 | 4.1384 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.6187 | 4.7212 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7138 | 0.7133 |
| US $ |
1.4009 | 1.4019 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6276 | 0.6144 |
| US $ |
1.1617 | 0.8608 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4019.25 | 4040.05 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 58.90 | 61.51 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1962, the Self-Employed Individual Retirement Tax Act became U.S. law, creating the first retirement account that an individual can control and determine on their own.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 1.4%, or 419.09 to 29,850.89 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 3% on April 10.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 143 of 214 shares fell, while 70 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 8.0%.
Baytex Energy Corp. had the largest drop, falling 8.9%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 12 times. The next day, it declined six times for an average 1.8% and advanced six times for an average 1.7%
* This year, the index rose 21%, heading for the best year since 2021
* So far this week, the index fell 2%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended April 4
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 14% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.7% below its 52-week high on Oct. 6, 2025 and 34.3% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.84t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 8.82% compared with 7.44% in the previous session and the average of 7.40% over the past month
Index Points
Information Technology| -188.6768| -5.8| 0/9
Financials | -121.7703| -1.3| 6/18
Energy | -90.6136| -1.9| 3/36
Industrials | -21.5779| -0.6| 9/20
Materials | -15.4986| -0.3| 21/29
Health Care | -2.5168| -3.0| 0/4
Consumer Discretionary| -2.4699| -0.3| 3/6
Real Estate | -2.4041| -0.5| 8/11
Communication Services| 6.9257| 1.1| 5/0
Utilities | 9.3342| 0.9| 9/5
Consumer Staples | 10.1898| 1.0| 6/5
Shopify | -157.5000| -8.0| 7.5| 38.2
Brookfield Corp | -42.6200| -4.5| -11.5| 9.5
Canadian Natural | Resources | -27.8600| -4.2| -15.0| -0.9
Waste Connections | 5.7910| 1.3| -16.9| -1.9
Wheaton Precious | Metals | 8.4300| 1.8| -25.9| 82.5
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 11.7200| 1.5| -44.6| 104.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed Friday under the 30,000 level for the first time this month after losing more than 650 points over the last two sessions as investors shed risk and tried to work out what today’s “quirky” September jobs report will mean in terms of the path forward on interest rates, and as the commodity index is seen remaining within its trading range in the weeks ahead.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 419.09 points, or 1.4%, at 29,850.99, adding to the 232 points lost Thursday and taking the index to its lowest closing level since the end of September.
Among sectors, most were lower with Info Tech down near 4.3%, Health Care down near 4%, Energy down 3.25% and Base Metals down 2.8%.
In contrast, both Telecoms and Utilities were both up near 1%.
Among individual stocks, clothier Aritzia (ATZ.TO) was up more than 8% as Stifel Canada raised its price target to $100, from $96, and reiterated its Buy rating on the company after its ninth consecutive earnings beat.
UBS raised its one year price target on Aritzia to $118, from $116, and also maintained its Buy rating.
On jobs and rates, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, published a note entitled ‘The BoC’s October Decision Might Still Be ‘Live’ Despite A Quirky Jobs Report’ in which he noted Canada gained 60,000 jobs in September with “some decent details”.
But Holt said ‘seasonality quirks’ should dampen confidence in the data. For one, he noted, there was an unusually light month over month NSA drop in a month “that’s usually much bigger”.
Holt said: “That’s the second year in a row when that’s happened.
In fact, the month of September has seen the strongest seasonally unadjusted readings, either the biggest gains or the smallest dips, for overall employment on record in each of the pandemic and post-pandemic years from 2020 through to 2025… Is this because of changes in seasonal hiring patterns that are genuine in nature only since the pandemic, or that are not being properly controlled?”
That, Holt added, is why October’s BoC decision “may still be live”.
Elsewhere, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, noted year to date job growth is 22,000; the unemployment rate held steady at 7.1%, its highest level since 2016 outside the pandemic; and the employment rate ticked up by 0.1 basis points (bps) to 60.6% following consecutive declines in July and August.
But despite these favorable results, Doyle also noted actual hours worked contracted -0.2% MoM and remains on a downtrend YoY.
“Canada’s labour market is likely to continue to struggle in the near-term, and we suspect a modest further rise in unemployment through year-end,” he said.
Macquarie continues to expect the next 25 bps rate cut on Oct. 29, although the OIS market probability fell on this release to near 40%.
It noted the eventual decision will likely be shaped by the release of the Business Outlook Survey on Oct. 20 and the Consumer Price Index on Oct. 21.
Meanwhile, this week’s issue of ‘Technicals with Dave’ is focused on commodities.
In it, Rosenberg Research noted the S&P GSCI Commodity Index remains in a trading range defined by 570-575 chart resistance and a virtually horizontal 2021-2025 support trendline that is currently at 515.91.
To put the virtually horizontal description into context, the research noted the line was at 514.71 five weeks ago in the last commentary.
“Not surprisingly,” the research said, “the weekly Coppock Curve has been engaged in its own trading range on either side of the neutral zero line.
The indicator is currently attempting to bottom just below the zero line.
At this point, any subsequent bullish bias does not appear likely to persist much beyond late November.
This shorter-than-normal lifespan suggests that the commodity index will remain within its trading range in the weeks ahead.”
Of commodities today, gold pushed back above the US$4,000 mark again on a weaker dollar and lower treasury yields following a day-prior drop as traders took profits from Wednesday’s record close.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $52.70 to $4,025.30 per ounce, pushing higher after posting the first drop in five sessions on Thursday, retreating from the Oct. 8 record high of $4,070.50.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell to a five-month low, extending losses for a second day as traders priced in lower geopolitical risk following a U.S.-backed ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza and the threat of rising supply.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed down $2.61 to settle at $58.90 per barrel, the lowest since May 7, while December Brent oil was last seen down $2.49 to $62.73.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Flaring trade tensions between the US and China sent shockwaves across markets Friday, hammering stocks, oil and crypto while spurring a dash for the perceived safety of Treasuries and gold.
President Donald Trump’s threat of a “massive increase” in China tariffs shook Wall Street at the end of an already- volatile week that saw concern build about a bubble in artificial-intelligence companies.
His remarks sent the S&P 500 down 2.7%.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 lost 3.5%.
The dollar slid at the end of its best week this year. Crude plunged over 4%.
Trump said he saw “no reason” to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, citing recent “hostile” export controls.
His social- media post followed a series of moves by both the US and China to potentially curb flows of technology and materials between the countries — all ahead of the presidents’ planned meeting in Asia later this month.
“That was clearly not something traders wanted to hear.
Things got ugly quickly,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers in a note titled “Tariff Rug Pull.”
“The reactions may say as much about recent market complacency as they do about the policy ramifications.”
Big downward moves in risky assets have been a rarity of late, which may itself be a factor in Friday’s jarring reaction.
Since the tariff-fueled meltdown in April, the S&P 500 has surged on optimism about AI and hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The gauge is trading near one of its highest valuations in 25 years — leaving a thin cushion for bad news.
The S&P 500 saw its worst day since April.
In another sign of stress, a key gauge of volatility – the VIX – topped 21.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries sank 11 basis points to 4.03%.
Bitcoin dropped about 5.5%. Commodities from copper to soybeans, wheat and cotton slumped.
“Throughout the summer, greed has far outpaced fear in the US equity market, and the high level of complacency leaves investors vulnerable,” said Michael O’Rourke at JonesTrading.
“The selloff has the potential to evolve into a larger correction, especially if the US-China trade truce is over.”
Trump’s post follows a series of moves by both the US and China to potentially curb flows of technology and materials between the countries — which had been seen as ways to gain an edge ahead of the presidents’ planned meeting in Asia.
“This is a very dangerous moment for global supply chains, including those powering AI, but it is important to note that neither side has yet implemented its threatened measures,” said Michael Hirson and Houze Song at 22V Research.
“There is still a window to back down, and Trump faces significant political risks if he follows through on his threats.”
Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management noted that October lived up to its reputation as one of the most volatile months and the selloff that many were expecting has finally arrived.
“More volatility is possible in the coming weeks, but absent a true hit to the economy, the market should stage a rebound later this year, and October dip-buyers could be vindicated by year-end,” he said.
To Michael Bailey at FBB Capital Partners, perhaps investors are using the new Trump tariff threats as cover for selling the AI complex, which has been “living on an island” this year, looking at earnings growth.
“In other words, tariffs have done very little to slow the breakneck pace of AI-related companies, so today’s new tariff concerns are a bit surprising,” he said.
From a technical standpoint, Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott says Friday’s pullback is not a complete surprise.
“We were anticipating air pockets of this or similar nature,” he noted, adding that would be “due to recent overbought conditions, negative divergences in price, momentum, and breadth, crowded positioning, and high headline risk.”
When staring down the face of a repricing such as this, Wantrobski says it is important to remember that in the history of the S&P 500, there was never a single instance where it declined more than 20% twice in one calendar year over two separate occasions.
In addition, he noted that with the selloff, many short- term trading charts are being pressed into “moderately oversold” territory, which could signal potential bounces over the coming days.
“We continue to anticipate corrective activity in the magnitude of 5% to 10% from the recent highs due to overbought chart conditions across multiple time frames,” Wantrobski said.
“But our model is not calling for structural downturn in the US equity cycle for 2025.”
Trade tensions escalated at a time when calls for a breather in the equity rally are growing, with the S&P 500 almost doubling in three years.
“With markets already ripe for a pull back, the latest trade threats to China from President Trump today were the tipping point to a broad selloff in equities,” said Charlie Ripley at Allianz Investment Management.
For investors, Ripley noted that it’s important to recall that big threats don’t always turn into big actions.
Despite the severity of Friday’s rout, the shift in sentiment on US trade relations with China is unlikely to upend the fundamentals supporting the market’s recent run up, he added.
The market ebullience has been so pronounced that investors have recently flocked into everything from stocks to bonds and cryptocurrencies.
Global equity funds attracted $20 billion in the week through Oct. 8, while $25.6 billion flowed into bonds, Bank of America Corp. said, citing EPFR Global data.
Crypto funds had inflows of $5.5 billion.
Even cash funds saw additions of almost $73 billion, suggesting investors still have plenty of dry powder.
As traders rushed to the perceived safety of bonds on Friday, Treasuries rose across maturities.
“Investors are clamoring for safe havens as a heavy levy increase could weigh on corporate earnings and the economic outlook,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
“The bigger effect was the reversal of equities.
Is this the start of a Liberation Day Two?” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities.
“But that gave the bond markets more of a bid.”
The tariff threat and the market reaction to it hearkened back to US financial-market behavior in April, when the Trump administration rolled out an agenda of sweeping levies that sent the stock market into a tailspin, stoking demand for Treasuries.
The dollar dropped against most of its developed-market peers Friday, while climbing about 1% this week.
Corporate Highlights:
* Shipments from Tesla Inc.’s Shanghai factory increased in September as China’s car market kicks off its busy sales period and automakers start their final push to meet annual targets.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google became the first company to be designated with so called strategic market status in the UK, exposing the US firm’s online search and advertising business to a closer scrutiny by the country’s antitrust watchdog.
* China slapped new port fees on US ships and started an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm Inc., the latest in a string of tit-for-tat moves as Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump jockey for leverage before a key meeting to discuss trade and other issues.
* Chevron Corp. is seeking permission to drill as many as 10 wells offshore Namibia, one of the busiest exploration hotspots for oil and gas in Africa.
* Mosaic Co. said that third-quarter phosphate production fell below what management expected, citing mechanical issues at one plant and utility interruptions at another. Preliminary sales volumes for phosphates fell short of what analysts expected.
* Leaders at AI computing company CoreWeave Inc. sold shares worth more than $1 billion after a lockup on the stock lifted in mid-August, putting them among the top 10 individual insider sellers of the third quarter.
* AstraZeneca Plc is expected to announce a deal with President Donald Trump to slash drug prices, people familiar with the plans said, making it the second pharmaceutical company to strike an agreement to advance one of the administration’s key health priorities.
* Stellantis NV’s third-quarter shipments climbed 13%, led by a rise in North America, pointing to a recovery after the ailing carmaker worked down inventory in the US.
* Carlyle Inc. agreed to take control of BASF SE’s coatings business, creating a standalone company with an enterprise value of €7.7 billion ($8.9 billion).
* BlackRock Inc.’s actively managed funds are set to accept BBVA SA’s takeover bid for Banco Sabadell SA and tender their shares as the offer period is about to end, according to people familiar with the matter.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“President Trump’s escalating rhetoric on China, on the back of rising signs of stress in credit and increased concerns over a tech bubble, are a toxic combination that could derail stocks further just as a new earnings season gets underway.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 2.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.9%
* The MSCI World Index fell 2.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 3.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 3%
Currencie
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1619
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3360
* The Japanese yen rose 1.2% to 151.19 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 5.6% to $114,341.45
* Ether fell 11% to $3,870
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 11 basis points to 4.03%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.64%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.67%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.3% to $58.84 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,010.09 an ounce
–With assistance from Denitsa Tsekova and Vildana Hajric.
Have a lovely long weekend.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Shab
“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” — Albert Einstein
Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828