Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Friday.
October 3, 1990: Germany is officially reunified, ending four decades of Cold War division between the Soviet-controlled East and the Western-controlled West.
West Germany and East Germany ended 45 years of postwar division, declaring the creation of a new unified country. Go to article
October 3, 1941: The Maltese Falcon premieres in New York City.
Stevie Ray Vaughan, musician, b. 1954.
Ashlee Simpson, singer, b. 1984
| Chinese tech company develops creepy ultra-lifelike robot face — watch it blink, twitch and nod |
A Chinese robotics company has unveiled what it describes as a realistic robot face, with plans to make humanoid robots more approachable and relatable. Read More.
| Scientists find best evidence yet that icy moon Enceladus is habitable |
An ocean flowing beneath the surface of Saturn’s moon Enceladus is spewing ice that holds the building blocks of life. Read More.
| Chimps eat fruit full of alcohol, but no, they don’t get drunk |
Chimps’ ability to metabolize fermented fruit could explain our own predilection for alcohol. Read More.
| The Panama Canal needs a staggering amount of water to operate. Climate change could threaten that, study warns |
The vital commercial artery depends on a supply of fresh water to move ships between the two oceans. Drought conditions that were once rare could become common by the end of the century, greatly impacting the canal’s operation. Read More.
Taylor Swift releases new album
Cue the confetti — Taylor Swift’s 12th album, “The Life of a Showgirl,” has officially arrived.
First female Archbishop of Canterbury is appointed
Sarah Mullally was appointed today as the new Archbishop of Canterbury, becoming the spiritual leader of 85 million Anglicans worldwide and the first woman to hold the role.
Kilauea volcano shoots lava as high as the Empire State Building
Hawaii’s Kilauea recently shot lava 1,300 feet into the air! See the video here.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Loriol-Sur-Drome, France
Riders in action during the junior women’s road race at the UEC road European cycling championships
Photograph: Shutterstock
New Delhi, India
Viktoras Pentaras, of Cyprus, in action during the men’s long jump T37 final during the World Para Athletics Championships at the Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium
Photograph: Bhawika Chhabra/Reuters
Canterbury, UK
Britain’s new archbishop of Canterbury-designate, Sarah Mullally, poses for a photograph in the Corona vhapel at Canterbury Cathedral, after her appointment was announcement
Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for October 3rd, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
46758.28 | +238.56 |
| +0.51% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6715.79 | +0.44 |
| +0.01% | ||
| NASDAQ | 22780.51 | -63.54 |
| -0.28% | ||
| TSX | 30471.68 | +311.09 |
| +1.03% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 45769.50 | +832.77 |
| +1.85% | ||
| HANG SENG |
27140.92 | -146.20 |
| -0.54% | ||
| SENSEX | 81207.17 | +223.86 |
| +0.28% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9491.25 | +63.52 |
| +0.67% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.187 | 3.176 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.673 | 3.657 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1192 | 4.0827 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.7114 | 4.6881 |
Currencies
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7165 | 0.7162 |
| US $ |
1.3956 | 1.3962 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 1.6369 | 0.6103 |
| US $ |
1.1739 | 0.8518 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
3878.10 | 3872.00 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 60.88 | 60.48 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1913, President Woodrow Wilson enshrined into law a federal income tax, less than 20 years after it was declared unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court. He signed the act after 9 p.m. to prevent anyone from hiding assets during that day’s business hours. The tax kicked in at 1% of all earned income over $2,500 for single taxpayers and $3,333.35 for married couples.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the sixth day, climbing 1%, or 311.09 to 30,471.68 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.1% on Sept. 19.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 159 of 214 shares rose, while 55 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 6.5%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 17 times. The next day, it declined nine times for an average 1.3% and advanced eight times for an average 0.7%
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* So far this week, the index rose 2.4%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Aug. 8
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 37.1% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6 on a trailing basis and 19 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.81t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.86% compared with 6.82% in the previous session and the average of 7.96% over the past month
Index Points
Information Technology | 118.4336| 3.9| 7/2
Financials | 59.7175| 0.6| 21/3
Energy | 53.1513| 1.1| 35/4
Industrials | 37.1472| 1.1| 21/8
Materials | 19.3271| 0.4| 29/22
Utilities | 7.8527| 0.7| 10/4
Consumer Discretionary | 7.5202| 0.8| 9/0
Real Estate | 4.8474| 1.0| 18/1
Consumer Staples | 2.8918| 0.3| 6/5
Communication Services | 0.7585| 0.1| 2/3
Health Care | -0.5569| -0.7| 1/3
Shopify | 116.3000| 6.5| 13.7| 47.0
TD Bank | 25.3900| 1.9| 392.2| 48.0
Constellation | Software | 17.7600| 3.3| 14.3| -9.3
Nutrien | -2.0400| -0.7| 5.8| 28.7
Bank of Montreal | -9.2020| -1.0| 105.0| 29.0
Celestica | -19.4800| -6.9| 15.4| 145.8
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Friday completed an entire week of daily record closes as BMO’s Douglas Porter noted the index is on an “even bigger roll” than its major U.S. counterparts, “even without the gold rush”.
Today, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index was buoyed by elevated commodity prices in surging 311.09 points, or 1%, to 30,471.68, well up from a then record close of just under the 30,000 mark struck last Monday.
Most sectors were positive, led by Base Metals and Info Tech, both up 1.4%, and info tech, up 2%.
In contrast, Health Care was the only sector that was down near 1%.
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high late afternoon on Friday, recovering from a day-prior drop as traders took profits following Wednesday’s record close, boosted by the dollar weakening amid a U.S. government shutdown and expectations lower interest rates are coming. Gold for December delivery was up US$42.30 to US$3,910.40 per ounce, topping Wednesday’s US$3,897.50 record.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher, rising off a near five-month low ahead of an OPEC+ ministers’ meeting this weekend that could deliver another large output increase.
WTI oil for November delivery closed up $0.40 to settle at $60.88 per barrel, rising off the lowest since May 9, while December Brent oil was up $0.54 to $64.65.
If anything, Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in his regular weekly ‘Talking Points’ note, the TSX is on an “even bigger roll”
than its major U.S. counterparts, with the index now up 23% since the start of the year and a “blistering” 60% over the past 24 months.
He noted that ranks the current run in the top seven performances over a two-year period since 1960.
“True,” Porter added, “the stunning run in gold prices and related equities are juicing those returns, but we calculate that even ex-materials, the index is up a solid 15% so far this year (actually nudging out the S&P 500, even without the gold rush).”
Porter noted this raises the question of ‘how can the TSX be so strong when the underlying Canadian economy is struggling?’ and also noted the knee-jerk response, including often times from BMO, is that the index is a pale reflection of the economy.
But Porter said the TSX has “actually been a decent early indicator in the past for growth”, leading GDP by about a quarter.
He added the relationship is far from airtight, noting the wide divergences around the tech boom and bust in the late 1990s and early 2000s, which has some echoes today.
“But, at the very least, the rollicking ride in stocks suggests that some of the gloom around the economic outlook may be overdone.”
On the economic outlook, Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to head to Washington early next week to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump amid an ongoing trade spate.
Carney will leave for Washington on Monday evening and will meet with Trump on Tuesday, in what the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) is describing as a “working visit and meeting.”
Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, Industry Minister Melanie Joly and Canada-U.S.
Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc will travel with Carney.
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — The rally in tech stocks took a breather Friday, pulling back from this week’s record highs.
AI optimism was countered by President Donald Trump’s warning to Hamas and signs of a weakening economy as a US government shutdown extended into its third day.
The dollar slumped.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%.
Palantir Technologies Inc. was among the biggest decliners, the stock tumbled 7.5% after a report that the defense firm’s battlefield communications system was seriously flawed, a claim the company refuted.
Despite late- day weakness, the S&P 500 eked out a fractional gain, leaving intact its longest winning streak since July.
The broader market gauge has now gone 114 trading sessions without a 5% pullback.
President Trump warned of stark consequences if Hamas doesn’t agree to his plan to end the war in Gaza.
Shortly before markets closed in New York, Hamas agreed to meet some of those terms, including a release of hostages, ahead of a Sunday deadline.
During a White House briefing Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reiterated the administration’s plan to layoff government workers and pull funds from Democratic strongholds, like Portland, Oregon.
While the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls data was delayed due to the shutdown, a number of private-sector indicators out in recent days pointed to sluggish hiring, limited layoffs, modest pay gains and easing demand for workers in September. Separately, data from the Institute for Supply Management on Friday showed the US service sector stalled in September as business activity shrank for the first time since the pandemic and orders barely expanded.
That’s left swaps traders confident the Fed will execute another quarter-point cut in October, despite a data blackout.
The dollar notched its worst week since August.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year, which helps set a range of borrowing costs in the US, fell more than five basis points across the same span.
The latest round of big-ticket artificial intelligence deals and partnerships initially drove stocks to fresh highs on Friday, including news that Global Infrastructure Partners was in advanced talks to acquire Aligned Data Centers.
The deal values the company, a major beneficiary of the AI spending boom, at about $40 billion.
In Asia, Japan’s Hitachi Ltd. teamed up with OpenAI on energy and related infrastructure, while Fujitsu Ltd. expanded its collaboration with Nvidia Corp.
Friday’s burst of new partnerships and potential deals came just a day after a share sale lifted OpenAI’s valuation to $500 billion.
Equities have climbed to successive record highs this year, with AI optimism adding to bullish momentum from prospects of monetary policy easing and resilient earnings.
That string of records has fueled questions over how far the rally can run.
Concerns are growing that valuations look overheated as AI spending has yet to translate into profits.
“While it’s been very difficult to stand in front of this market, storm clouds are darkening, including the late-‘90s-like trends unfolding in tech/AI, a disconnect between Fed rhetoric and market expectations around easing,” writes Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli. Bears see investors as “very complacent about the shutdown, with most assuming it will be wrapped up in under two weeks, but there doesn’t seem to be substantive movement toward a compromise.”
Among signs that the market is getting frothy: a sentiment gauge compiled by Barclays Plc has been sitting near a level that indicates exuberance.
A similar Bloomberg Intelligence measure is back to a “manic” zone that’s preceded lukewarm returns in the past.
While investors are wagering that the billions pouring into the AI sector will eventually translate into profits and extend gains in tech shares, benchmarks are also bumping up against technical levels that often signal a decline is imminent.
Treasury options pricing suggests that the shutdown that began Wednesday will last at least 10 to as many as 29 days, according to interest-rate strategists at Morgan Stanley.
Federal Reserve officials disagree about how much further to reduce borrowing costs after lowering their benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point last month.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated his view that officials should proceed carefully with interest-rate cuts while Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who advocated for larger cuts in September, said he’d amend his inflation view if housing costs unexpectedly jumped.
In commodities, oil fell below $61 a barrel this week ahead of an impending OPEC+ supply decision, though crude prices were climbing Friday after President Trump’s warning on Gaza.
Gold was on track for a seventh weekly gain, fueled by central bank buying amid falling US interest rates and lingering inflation concerns.
And despite all the hype around AI and the surge in chip stocks this year, gold miners have actually been the better bet.
What Bloomberg Strategists say….
“Stocks have pared gains after the latest ISM Services data signaled fading economic activity but seeing persistent inflationary pressures.
That’s not a good combination for risk assets, which have been riding on optimism about Fed rate cuts.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live
Corporate News:
* Rivian Automotive Inc. is reworking a key element of its vehicle doors after employees and customers raised concerns over potential safety issues with the current design, according to people familiar with the matter.
* 3M Co. is considering selling billions of dollars of assets from its industrials operations as it looks to carve out low- growth businesses, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Applied Materials Inc. shares dropped 2.7% after a $600 million hit to its 2026 revenue.
* Boeing Co.’s 777X is slated to fly commercially for the first time in early 2027 instead of next year, people familiar with the matter said, a fresh setback to the US plane maker that sets the stage for potentially billions of dollars in accounting charges.
* Huawei Technologies Co. used advanced components from Asia’s largest technology firms in at least some of its leading Ascend AI processors, a research firm discovered during teardowns.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4:02 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1744
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3486
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 147.41 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.4% to $122,377.36
* Ether rose 0.3% to $4,508.34
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.12%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.70%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.69%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $60.67 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.8% to $3,887.11 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Winnie Hsu, Cecile Gutscher, Andre Janse van Vuuren, Levin Stamm and Alex Nicholson.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone. -Blaise Pascal, 1623-1662.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com