29th July, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Olsok: Commemoration Day today for Viking King Olaf, Norway.
July 29, 1914: Transcontinental telephone service began with the first phone conversation between New York and San Francisco.  Go to article
July 29, 1958: The United States creates NASA, centralizing civilian space exploration and marking a new era in the space race.

Welcome to the Grocery Store Where Prices Change 100 Times a Day:

Electronic shelf labels are spreading at grocery chains in Europe and the U.S., enabling instant price drops—and raising fears of surge pricing.

‘Time travel’ memory hack rejuvenates memories, study finds
A new study suggests that recalling the context in which a memory was made can help to restore the memory after it has started to erode. Read More.

NASA spacecraft snaps images of lunar transit and Earth eclipse on the same day — see the photos
The Solar Dynamics Observatory saw a lunar transit and an Earth eclipse on July 25 — the first when the moon passed between it and the sun, and another when Earth did the same. Read More.

Ancient shark discovered deep inside world’s longest cave system
The National Park Service has announced another ancient shark discovery at Mammoth Cave in Kentucky. The latest find, named Macadens olsoni, had a unique curved row of teeth and lived around 340 million years ago. Read More.

Scientists hit quantum computer error rate of 0.000015% — a world record achievement that could lead to smaller and faster machines
The record-breaking achievement could lead to practical, utility-scale quantum computers that are both smaller and faster. Read More.

Luminous star may have a hidden companion
Using an instrument on the Gemini North telescope in Hawaii, astronomers have observed a “Betelbuddy.”

Jean Smart has fun fan encounter
The “Hacks” star was greeting admirers outside the theater where her Broadway show “Call Me Izzy” is playing when one fan made an intriguing request.

TikTok made this “diet food” popular
And manufacturers are struggling to keep up with skyrocketing demand.

What’s the secret to longevity?
A 109-year-old woman reveals what has kept her alive for so long.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, UK
England fans cheer as Chloe Kelly scores a penalty to win the Euro 2025 final against Spain
Photograph: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images

Rue Lepic in Paris as the riders ascend Côte de la Butte Montmartre on the Stage 4, Amiens to Rouen
Cycling and sunflowers, what’s not to like?
Photograph: Thibault Camus/AP

Kep beach, Cambodia
‘A child checking crab pots as the sun sets.’
Photograph: Charlotte Thompson
Market Closes for July 29^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1869, the New York Stock Exchange was formed from the merger of the New York Stock & Exchange Board with the Open Board and the Government Board, where Treasury bonds were traded.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 27,539.88 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.9% on July 17 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.3%.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 140 of 212 shares rose, while 71 fell.
Celestica Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 16.9%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.5%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.2% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 3.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.31% compared with 6.24% in the previous session and the average of 6.08% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 43.2169| 1.2| 35/13
Energy | 35.5507| 0.8| 31/9
Industrials | 20.2690| 0.6| 13/16
Information Technology | 16.3723| 0.6| 5/5
Real Estate | 8.6089| 1.7| 17/2
Utilities | 5.9617| 0.6| 9/5
Consumer Staples | 4.5270| 0.4| 8/1
Health Care | 1.2840| 2.0| 2/1
Financials | -0.0946| 0.0| 16/9
Communication Services | -0.6040| -0.1| 1/4
Consumer Discretionary | -0.6403| -0.1| 3/6
Celestica | 32.5500| 16.9| 135.1| 109.8
Waste Connections | 15.6600| 3.4| 29.8| 7.2
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 13.5500| 2.3| -29.6| 54.6
TD Bank | -5.7810| -0.5| -30.3| 32.4
CIBC | -10.1200| -1.5| 44.6| 10.0
Shopify | -18.6500| -1.3| -21.6| 12.4
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange rebounded to a fresh record high on Tuesday, buoyed by elevated commodity prices and hopes that free trade carveouts will be a key part of an eventual tariffs deal between Canada and the United States.
The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 134.46 points to 27,539.88, topping the prior record of 27,494.35 set on June 23.
Most sectors were higher.
The biggest gainers were Info tech, up 2.15%, Healthcare up 1.6% and Energy, up 1%.
Base Metals, down 1%, was the biggest decliner.
While the Bank of Canada is seen by nearly all market watchers as holding its benchmark interest rate steady when it provides an economic update tomorrow, the big uncertainty for onlookers remains what kind of a trade deal can the Canadian federal government agree on with the Trump administration.
As The Canadian Press reported today, it’s unclear if the two countries will stick to the August 1 deadline for wrapping up talks.
It noted Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday negotiations were in an “intense phase,” but U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters last week that Canada wasn’t a priority for his administration amid trade talks with other partners.
Whether a deal is announced Friday or later, Canadian Press cited Canadian Federation of Independent Business president Dan Kelly as saying his organization’s members feel “a good chunk” of trade must remain tariff-free in order for talks to be considered successful.
Canadian Press noted a deal struck by the U.S. with the European Union on Sunday imposes a 15% tariff on most goods imported into the U.S., including European automobiles, and no carveouts for key products like pharmaceuticals and steel.
Kelly is cited by The Canadian Press as saying he would not consider it a win for Canada if its trade agreement with the U.S. ends up looking similar to that deal.
He said the goal should be to keep zero tariffs on products that are currently protected under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement.
“What’s most critical, I’d say, for businesses right now is … whether we’re going to be able to protect the CUSMA exemption,” said Kelly.
“The sectoral tariffs on cars, on copper, on aluminum and steel, they’re definitely hurting, but for most manufactured goods there is a pathway to have them effectively tariff-free at the moment and we’re hoping that is maintained.”
Of commodities today, gold moved higher following four losing sessions even as the dollar rose ahead of the start of the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy committee that is expected to end with U.S. interest rates unchanged.
Gold for December delivery was up $15.20 to US$3,382.00 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at the highest in more than a month as investors move to risk assets on hopes that the United States will reach a trade deal with China, while U.S. President Donald Trump said he will impose sanctions on Russia if it does not reach a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine within 10 days.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up $2.50 to settle at US$69.21 per barrel, the highest since June 23, while September Brent crude was last seen up $2.49 to US$72.53.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders sent stocks lower in the run-up to the Federal Reserve decision, with concerns about high valuations overshadowing hopes for an extension of a tariff truce between the world’s two largest economies.
Bonds climbed alongside the dollar.
The S&P 500 snapped a six-day winning streak.
A rally in Treasuries gained steam after a solid sale of seven-year notes.
Longer-dated bonds led gains, with 30-year yields down 10 basis points to 4.86%.
Ahead of the announcement of the size of future debt auctions.
Oil jumped as President Donald Trump reiterated the US may impose additional tariffs on Russia and said the nation has 10 days to reach a truce with Ukraine.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and China will continue talks over maintaining a tariff truce before it expires in two weeks and that Trump will make the final call on any extension.
Adding an extra 90 days is one option, Bessent said.
Just as it happened after the US tariff deal with the European Union, the underwhelming market reaction to signs of progress in China talks illustrates the steady decline in the ability of those initiatives to spur big moves on Wall Street.
There are other market-moving factors on the horizon.
Those include Wednesday’s Fed decision and key data like the jobs report on Friday.
The market also faces a crucial test, with four tech giants reporting earnings over a two-day stretch.
“Investors are now more focused on hard data to validate the economic and policy outlook, rather than over-interpreting trade agreements,” said Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd.
On the economic front, US consumer confidence increased in July as concerns eased about the outlook for the broader economy and the labor market.
While job openings fell, they hovered at a level that indicates generally stable demand for workers.
“Overall, it was a mixed round of data that has done little to materially challenge the price action or macro narrative,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
In a rare occurrence, policymakers will convene in the same week that the government issues report on gross domestic product, employment and the Fed’s preferred price metrics.
Fed officials meet Tuesday and Wednesday and are widely expected to keep rates unchanged again.
Forecasters anticipate the heavy dose of data will show economic activity rebounded in the second quarter, largely due to a sharp narrowing of the trade deficit, while job growth moderated in July.
The third marquee report may show underlying inflation picked up slightly in June from a month earlier.
With the Fed’s benchmark rate holding at a target range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December, the business world is looking for any clue that officials are moving toward a rate reduction in the fall.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell could face dissent from one or more colleagues arguing it’s time for the central bank to provide more support to a slowing labor market.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed investors anticipate a mixed/negligible market reaction to the Fed decision, 33% said “risk-on” and only 11% “risk-off.”
Assuming no cut on Wednesday, the majority of respondents expect two Fed reductions in 2025.
“We believe the Fed wants to maintain flexibility on when to deploy further rate cuts.
In our view, the Fed will remain on hold until ‘hard data’ begins to confirm the slow-down story,” said Luis Alvarado at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“The Fed will have the opportunity to cut rates later in the year if the economy slows and as long as inflation allows.”
At eToro, Bret Kenwell says consumers and businesses continue to show their optimism and resilience in the face of multiple headwinds.
“As good as that feels right now, we have yet to take on this week’s main hurdles, which include tomorrow’s Fed meeting, Friday’s jobs report, and a bevy of earnings,” Kenwell said.
“If those events tell a similar story of economic and labor market stability, equity markets have the catalysts in place to continue higher, with pullbacks likely being viewed as buying opportunities.”
Wall Street strategists have a message for investors worrying about signs of excessive optimism emerging as US stocks extend their record run: Any near-term pullback will likely create a buying opportunity.
Strategists from HSBC Holdings Plc, Morgan Stanley and UBS Group AG are maintaining their long-term bullish views even as concerns build that valuations have become stretched at the moment.
They see strong corporate earnings and economic data, growing clarity around tariffs and the tailwind of artificial intelligence propelling stocks higher into next year.
“While we expect equities to advance over the next 12 months, investors should be mindful of potential market swings in the coming weeks,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We think capital preservation or phasing-in strategies can be effective in navigating near-term volatility.”
Long positioning on US equity futures keeps increasing, led by rising exposure to the S&P 500 in the past week, according to Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Chris Montagu.
Investors are pricing the US stock market as if there’s no longer any risk of a tariff-driven recession.  Peter Oppenheimer isn’t so sure.
The chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says it’s possible that tariffs bite hard enough to hurt equity prices even as Washington agrees on deals with key trading partners.
And while the US might dodge a recession, valuations are high enough that it’s prudent to keep diversifying into other markets.

Corporate Highlights:
* Union Pacific Corp. agreed to acquire Norfolk Southern Corp. in a $72 billion cash-and-stock transaction, forming the only US transcontinental railroad in what stands to be the industry’s largest deal ever.
* Baker Hughes Co. agreed to buy industrial equipment maker Chart Industries Inc. for about $9.6 billion in cash, expanding the oilfield service giant’s reach into liquefied natural gas, data centers and other technologies.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co. is in advanced talks to replace Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in its credit-card joint venture with Apple Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* Microsoft Corp. is in advanced talks to land a deal that could give it ongoing access to critical OpenAI technology, an agreement that would remove a major obstacle to the startup’s efforts to become a for-profit enterprise.
* United Parcel Service Inc. said economic volatility continues to roil its operations, underscoring the challenges for the courier’s effort to reconfigure its network and revitalize its business.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. flight attendants rejected a new contract that would have provided cumulative pay increases of as much as 45.6% over five years.
* JetBlue Airways Corp. posted a smaller-than-expected loss in the second quarter as demand rebounded and efforts to turn around the struggling carrier gained traction.
* Procter & Gamble Co. issued a wider range than usual for its annual sales outlook, underscoring the volatility US companies continue to navigate even as the Trump administration begins to strike trade deals.
* UnitedHealth Group Inc. offered fresh profit guidance that was far below its early projections and below all analyst expectations. Executives also declined to explicitly affirm a long-term growth outlook that the company has pointed investors to for years, a sign that its challenges aren’t going away any time soon.
* Merck & Co. is slashing $3 billion from its annual spending as it braces for off-brand competition to its cancer drug Keytruda, the best-selling medicine in the world.
* Whirlpool Corp. tumbled as tariff uncertainty upended expected benefits from the levy regime, forcing the appliance-maker to slash its outlook and dividend to shore up its financial position.
* Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.’s quarterly profit outlook trailed expectations because of costs related to its newest ship.
* Boeing Co. almost halted its cash burn in the second quarter, indicating that a turnaround initiated by Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg a year ago is paying off as the company delivers more aircraft.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. reported slower growth in payment volume and company executives said they were seeing softer retail spending as a result of the US tariff wars.
* Spotify Technology SA swung to a loss in the second quarter, missing analysts’ estimates after the music-streaming service recorded higher-than-expected expenses related to employee compensation.
* Novo Nordisk A/S named its head of international operations as chief executive officer after slumping weight-loss drug sales led to a profit warning that wiped $93 billion off its market value.
* Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. climbed after US regulators reversed course and recommended that patients who can walk be allowed to take its gene therapy Elevidys again.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1551
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3358
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 148.51 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $117,509.14
* Ether fell 0.6% to $3,764.8
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.32%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.71%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.63%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4% to $69.36 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,325.20 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
We must be willing to let go of the life we planned so as to have the life that is waiting for us. –Joseph Campbell, 1904-1987.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com