Month: September 2025

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Rosh Hashanah.

September 23, 1846: Planet Neptune discovered; Johann Galle discovers the planet, confirming Le Verrier’s prediction and reshaping planetary science. Go to article.
On this day in 1998, Wall Street’s top investment banks, encouraged by the Federal Reserve, completed marathon negotiations for a bailout of the giant hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management.

Euripides, playwright, b. 480 BC
John Coltrane, musician, b. 1926.
Ray Charles, singer, b. 1930.
Julio Inglesias, singer, b. 1943.
Bruce Springteen, musician, b. 1949.

US blocks Iranian diplomats from shopping at Costco
Iranian officials visiting New York for the UN General Assembly are banned from shopping at Costco. Here’s why the wholesale clubs are off-limits.

American makes history at one of France’s top cheese competitions
Brie-lieve it or not, an American just took the top prize at one of France’s most prestigious cheese competitions.

Spider-Man had a bit of an accident
Actor Tom Holland plans to take a break from filming the latest “Spider-Man” movie after suffering a concussion.

Taxis for women only
Amid a rise in attacks on female cab drivers, a mother-daughter team has launched a women-only taxi service to rival rideshare apps like Uber.

Angelina Jolie says she loves America but doesn’t recognize it right now
“These are very, very heavy times we are living in together,” the Oscar-winning actress said about the country’s political climate.

400,000: That’s how many people officials are preparing to relocate from low-lying and coastal areas in China’s southern city of Shenzhen as Typhoon Ragasa barrels toward the region.

Harry Styles runs Berlin Marathon
Eagle-eyed fans spotted British pop star Harry Styles running the Berlin Marathon on Sunday! See the video here.

‘Cleopatra’s Final Secret’ documentary reveals hundreds of coins and port found in Egypt. But does that mean Cleopatra was buried there?

Hundreds of coins that depict Cleopatra VII have been discovered in an Egyptian temple. The archaeologist who led the team believes the female pharaoh’s tomb is nearby. Read More.

Soar through 44 million stars in Gaia telescope’s latest 3D map of our galaxy

Scientists have used the Gaia Space Telescope to create a 3D map of star kindergartens within the Milky Way, and you can fly through it. Read More.

Quantum internet inches closer thanks to new chip — it helps beam quantum signals over real-world fiber optic cables

Researchers used the Q‑Chip to send quantum data over standard fiber using Internet Protocol (IP), showing that future quantum networks could run on today’s internet infrastructure. Read More.

‘Shocking’: Astronomers find monster black hole growing at 2.4 times the theoretical limit

Scientists spotted an enormous black hole in the early universe that’s growing at 2.4 times the theoretical Eddington limit. Studying it further could help answer one of the biggest questions
in astrophysics. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bogotá, Colombia
People look at Argentinian sculptor Leandro Erlich’s work Arrancada de raíz (Uprooted), displayed as part of BOG25, Bogotá’s inaugural International Biennial of Art and City, in Plaza de Lourdes
Photograph: Mauricio Dueñas Castañeda/EPA

Amsterdam, Netherlands
An art restorer points at the image of a barking dog in Rembrandt’s The Night Watch. Rembrandt based the dog on an early 17th-century drawing by Adriaen van de Venne, according to research carried out as part of Operation Night Watch, the most comprehensive study ever undertaken of the painting
Photograph: Peter Dejong/AP

​​​​​​​London, England
A heron takes flight during sunrise in Richmond Park
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters
Market Closes for September 23^rd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46292.78	-88.76
		-0.19%
S&P 500	6656.92	-36.83
		-0.55%
NASDAQ	22573.47	-215.51
		-0.95%
TSX	29815.63	-143.35
		-0.48%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45493.66	+447.85
		+0.99%
HANG SENG	26159.12	-185.02
		-0.70%
SENSEX	82102.10	-57.87
		-0.07%
FTSE 100*	9223.32	-3.36
		-0.04%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.188	3.199
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.658	3.664
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1061	4.1467
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7193	4.7625

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7228	0.7234
US $	1.3835	1.3823

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6347	0.6117
US $	1.1814	0.8464

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3719.70	3663.15
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.81	62.68

Market Commentary:
Welch’s genius was the capacity to energize and inspire hundreds of thousands of people across a range of businesses and countries. –Warren G. Bennis, USC Business professor, as quoted in Business Week, September 10, 2001, referring to retiring CEO Jack Welch of General Electric.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.5% at 29,815.63 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on Aug.
25 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 97 of 213 shares fell, while 111 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.5%.
AtkinsRealis Group Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.6%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 21%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 11%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.4%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 34.1% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and rose 5.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 18.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.8t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.05% compared with 6.75% in the previous session and the average of 8.88% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology| -118.2230| -3.8| 1/8
Industrials | -51.2053| -1.5| 6/23
Financials | -29.6085| -0.3| 8/14
Consumer Discretionary| -4.0121| -0.4| 2/7
Materials | -3.2844| -0.1| 28/22
Real Estate | -2.8447| -0.5| 6/12
Health Care | 0.5733| 0.7| 2/2
Communication Services| 3.1448| 0.5| 4/1
Utilities | 3.9304| 0.4| 11/3
Consumer Staples | 9.0188| 0.9| 8/2
Energy | 49.1653| 1.1| 35/3
Shopify | -83.5200| -4.5| 3.6| 35.6
Constellation | Software | -27.8600| -4.8| 84.5| -10.0
Brookfield Corp | -14.4600| -1.4| 14.9| 19.9
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | 6.9520| 0.9| 2.0| 99.9
Bank of Montreal | 8.1530| 0.9| -34.3| 29.5
Enbridge | 9.7440| 0.9| -47.1| 12.5
(MT Newswires):
(Updates to add a report the Bank of Montreal is considering the sale of some U.S. branches.)
After running up to a record intraday high above the 30,000 marks for the first time early Tuesday, the Toronto Stock Exchange then succumbed to profit taking over the remainder of the session as market watchers awaited and then digested a mid-afternoon speech from Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem.
Despite higher commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 143.35 points, or 0.5%, to 29,815.63, even with most sectors higher.
The Battery Metals Index was up 3.9% and Energy up 1%.
Among the biggest losers, Info Tech was down 2.9% and Industrials down 1.5%.
“In stock specific news, The Wall Street Journal reported that Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) has recently explored a sale of some of its U.S. branches with roughly US$6 billion in deposits, according to people familiar with the matter.
The bank is seeking to unload certain locations after its deal to buy Bank of the West, it said.
On the domestic economics front, there has not yet been much of a reaction to Macklem, who delivered a speech mid-afternoon Eastern Time on global trade disruption to Saskatchewan business leaders.
Of note, Macklem said trad growth in Canada had slowed well before the re-election of President Trump in the United States, adding trade as a share of Canadian GDP stopped increasing in about 2000.
But, Macklem said, Canadian exports have declined sharply since Trump imposed new tariffs on Canada and “created considerable uncertainty” with tariff threats and reversals.
In the longer term, Macklem said, increased trade friction with the United States means Canada’s economy will work “less efficiently, with added costs and less income”.
He added: “We need to diversify our trade by growing our internal market and finding new overseas markets.
And we need to improve our productivity and make ourselves more attractive to investors.
That work has started, and I’ve spoken about all these things before.”
Just ahead of the close of equity trading, Desjardins Macro Strategist Tiago Figueiredo offered a quick take on the speech.
In his prepared remarks, Figueiredo noted, Macklem indicated that the trade war with the United States has pushed Canada onto a permanently lower path for economic activity.
“He [Macklem] then noted that monetary and even counter-cyclical fiscal stimulus are not long-term solutions to the problems at hand.
Structural reforms that help improve Canada’s productivity and competitiveness by diversifying away from the US are changes that could improve long-term domestic growth prospects.
The Governor noted that some of these require little fiscal cost and could be implemented quickly.
He suggested reducing inter-provincial barriers, mutually recognizing labour accreditation for certain professions, and reducing regulatory approvals and uncertainty.”
“However,” Figueiredo said, “Macklem noted that monetary policy can support the economy through this period of adjustment.
Economic activity has deteriorated, in part as a result of the trade war with the US, but concerns around inflation had held the central bank back from easing until recently.
Going forward, Macklem said that his central bank remains prepared to react to new information and support economic growth while ensuring that inflation remains well controlled.
That’s broadly in line with last week’s communications, which saw the Bank refraining from providing specific forward guidance.
That said, it could also be argued that Macklem did not feel the need to push back against market expectations for more easing.
As a result, we remain comfortable holding the view that Canadian central bankers will lower their policy rate to a trough of 2.00%.”
Of commodities, gold futures continued their record run, rising above the US$3,800 mark for the first time as lower interest rates and safe-haven buying support the precious metal.
Gold for December delivery was up $38.50 to US$3,813.60 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate oil closed higher, rebounding from four losing sessions as Chinese demand continues to offset rising supply.
WTI crude oil for November delivery closed up $1.13 to settle at US$63.41 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen up $0.90 to US$67.47.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks down from all-time highs, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offering no hints on whether he might support a rate cut at the central bank’s October meeting.
Bonds held gains.
Following a series of records, equities took a breather amid a slide in big tech.
Powell said the outlooks for the labor market and inflation face risks, reiterating his view that policymakers likely have a difficult road ahead as they weigh further interest-rate cuts.
“Powell says nothing new,” noted Peter Boockvar at The Boock Report.
To David Russell at TradeStation, Powell is laying the groundwork for tariffs boosting inflation in the fourth quarter.
He’s giving officials room to maneuver against political pressure, and softening the message by saying the impact will be short lived.
Fed officials lowered their benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point last week and penciled in two more reductions this year following months of intense pressure from the White House to slash borrowing costs.
“Powell doesn’t want to antagonize the White House but he’s not rolling over either,” Russell said.
“He’s keeping his options open in case price pressures increase.
Powell’s not trying to sound hawkish, but he’s trying to dodge some of the forceful demand for aggressive cuts.”
While most shares in the S&P 500 rose, the index slipped.
A gauge of tech mega caps lost 1.5%.
In late hours, Micron Technology Inc. gave an upbeat forecast.
Ten-year yields slid four basis points to 4.11%.
The dollar wavered.
Gold held its record.
Oil climbed amid tensions between NATO and Russia.
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, Powell continues to signal he’s more focused on the labor market.
“There is reason to expect Powell to be onboard with rate cuts at each of the next two meetings,” he said.
Some policymakers are becoming more concerned about growing risks to the labor market, while others remain primarily worried about the possibility that above-target inflation could be pushed higher by tariffs and other policies.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said officials need to act decisively to bring down rates as the labor market weakens.
Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he sees more inflation coming, echoing remarks from his Chicago counterpart Austan Goolsbee.
Powell on Stocks
“While some hawkish Fed officials put a lot of weight on market developments and see this as a reason to be wary about cutting rates any further in the near term, this is not the way Powell and the core group think,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
Guha also noted that Powell declined a clear invitation to signal alarm about stock gains or suggest that the ebullience in the market is leading to the Fed having second thoughts about dovish policy.
“He agreed with his questioner that prices look highly valued by historic standards and said the Fed looks at financial conditions.
But he made it clear that it is not the Fed’s job to target stock prices or decide what the right valuation should be.
In other words, employment, and inflation trump stock prices,” Guha said.
Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise noted that since May, the 10-year Treasury yield has been on a bumpy decline, and the S&P 500 has posted strong gains over the same period.
Simply, lower rates make future corporate earnings more attractive when discounted to their present value — supporting higher equity valuations.
“Lower discount rates increase the present value of future cash flows for companies, making equities more appealing relative to fixed income alternatives, all else equal,” Saglimbene added.
Prospects of further rate cuts, surprisingly strong profit growth and enthusiasm for Big Tech companies that are capitalizing on artificial intelligence have all kept equities near their all-time highs.
The record-setting advance has pushed the S&P 500 nearly 3% above the average year-end forecast among those tracked by Bloomberg, which currently stands at 6,486.
Only in 2024 and 1999 have the analyst calls lagged the market’s actual return so
much around this time of the year.
“The bull market in equities is ‘alive and kicking’,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“While we maintain our bullish outlook over the intermediate- to longer-term, we also recognize that the SPX has advanced for nearly five straight months without a material pullback.”
His year-end S&P 500 price objective of 6,600 has recently been achieved, and short-term momentum has modestly eased.
Johnson says he’ll review his year-end objective and look to establish a 2026 objective in the beginning of the fourth quarter.
The gauge hovered near 6,650.
Meantime, a burst of activity is powering the US IPO market toward its busiest month since the final innings of a manic 2021.
Klarna Group Plc and Netskope Inc.’s successful outings led the charge, lifting September’s US initial public offerings volume so far to $7.6 billion, excluding financial vehicles such as blank-check firms.
Newly public companies delivered a weighted-average return of 17%.

Corporate Highlights:
* Nvidia Corp. assured customers that its landmark deal with OpenAI to invest $100 billion and expand AI infrastructure together won’t affect the chipmaker’s relationship with other clients.
* Google is introducing an artificial intelligence assistant that can offer live coaching to mobile gamers, part of a larger effort to boost engagement on its Android platform.
* ASM International NV cut its sales outlook for the second half of the year, citing lower-than-anticipated demand from some of the semiconductor equipment maker’s clients.
* Nexstar Media Group Inc. said it would join Sinclair Inc., another large owner of ABC TV stations, in not airing Jimmy Kimmel Live! on Tuesday night.
* Walt Disney Co. is hiking the cost of its Disney+ streaming service without advertising by $3 to $19 a month. The cost of a plan with ads will rise by $2 to $12 monthly, the company said. The new pricing will go into effect Oct. 21.
* Boeing Co. will partner with Palantir Technologies Inc. to integrate artificial intelligence on current and future defense programs and in its factories.
** Boeing and Uzbekistan Airways unveiled a deal for as many as 22 of the US plane maker’s 787 Dreamliner jets, the largest-ever order in the airline’s history.
* The Trump administration linked Tylenol to autism and urged pregnant women to avoid the common pain medication despite the lack of widely accepted scientific evidence supporting the risk.
* Johnson & Johnson is withdrawing a device to treat debilitating acid reflux disease from markets outside the US, a move surgeons warned would set back the available treatment options for sufferers by more than a decade and also impact lung transplant patients.
* Lowe’s Cos. sold $5 billion of bonds to help fund its pending acquisition of Foundation Building Materials, one of the few September buyout financings in the US investment-grade market as overall issuance set a record for the month.
* Firefly Aerospace Inc. reported second-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, as the small-rocket launcher works to ramp up the frequency of its flights and win new contracts.
* AutoZone Inc. reported comparable sales for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
* Investment giants KKR & Co. and Blackstone Inc. are leading a combined $17 billion investment in the natural gas industry, marking a massive push of private funds into a sector helping to quench artificial intelligence firms’ relentless thirst for energy.
** KKR and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board on Tuesday agreed to pay $10 billion for a 45% equity stake in Sempra’s infrastructure arm, which builds liquefied natural gas projects.
* L’Oréal SA, named by Giorgio Armani as a potential investor in the late Italian fashion mogul’s eponymous business, would only be interested in its profitable beauty arm, according to a person familiar with the matter.
* Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc extended its production shutdown yet again as the cyberattack that’s crippled the carmaker persists.
* Huawei Technologies Co. openly admits its silicon can’t match Nvidia’s in raw power and speed. So to pack the same punch, China’s national champion is counting on its traditional strengths: brute force, networking, and policy support.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“For the year as a whole, the SPX has rallied on 57.2% of trading days.
That’s actually higher than the last few years (despite the strong rallies of 2021, 2023, and 2024), though it’s slightly below the Covid year of 2020 (57.3%).
There is of course time to best that win rate through the end of the year, but at this juncture it’s likely to be a struggle to best 2019’s mark of rallies on 59.5% of trading days.”
—Cameron Crise, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.55% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1817
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3525
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.63 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1% to $111,675.42
* Ether fell 0.7% to $4,154.7
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.11%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.75%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.68%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.59%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.72%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.3% to $63.69 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,764.59 an ounce
Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Wise men say nothing in dangerous times. –Aesop, c.620 BCE-564 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Autumnal Equinox!🍂
Carolann is away from the office today; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Today is the Autumnal equinox – two moments in the year when the Sun is exactly above the Equator and day and night are of equal length; also, either of the two points in the sky where the ecliptic (the Sun’s annual pathway) and the celestial equator intersect. 🍂 
Fall begins in the northern hemisphere today.

September 22, 1832: During his HMS Beagle voyage, Charles Darwin discovers a large number of fossils at Punta Alta in Argentina
September 22, 1862 :US President Abraham Lincoln issues the preliminary Emancipation Proclamation, threatening to free all enslaved people in the rebel Southern states if those states fail to rejoin the Union by January 1, 1863
September 22, 1896: Queen Victoria surpasses her grandfather King George III as the longest reigning monarch in British history
September 22, 2001 Congress approved $15 billion to help an airline industry reeling from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Go to article

1,600-year-old coin hoard found in complex tunnel system under Galilee dates to last Jewish rebellion against Romans
Archaeologists found a 1,600-year-old coin hoard dating to the final Jewish revolt against Romans.

Fireworks in Himalayas spark outrage, forcing outdoor brand Arc’teryx to apologize
The sight of a multi-colored fireworks exploding in the foothills of the Himalayas has sparked a furious environmental backlash, prompting a local government investigation in China and forcing global outdoor apparel brand Arc’teryx to issue an apology.

Here are the 30 best gifts for coffee lovers, handpicked by coffee geeks.
Some coffee drinkers simply enjoy their morning cup, but this gift guide is for coffee lovers. I’m talking about the kind of enthusiasts who wax poetic about single-origin beans by day and crave White Russians by night.

Britain’s First-Ever TV Ad
On this day 1955 Commercial television begins in the UK with the launch of ITV, which soon airs the first advert on UK TV for Gibbs SR toothpaste

Inle Lake, Myanmar
Inntha people row their traditional boats past pagodas in southern Shan state
Photograph: Thein Zaw/AP

Paris, France
Waiters and waitresses, dressed in their work uniforms, compete in the traditional ‘Course des cafes’ (the cafes’ race), a 4km race in which competitors carry a tray with water, coffee and a croissant
Photograph: Alain Jocard/AFP/Getty Images
Malatya, Turkey
Purebred Arabian horses seen from above at the Sultansuyu Agricultural Enterprise
Photograph: Okan Coskun/Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 22^nd, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46381.54	+66.27
		+0.14%
S&P 500	6693.75	+29.39
		+0.44%
NASDAQ	22788.98	+157.50
		+0.70%
TSX	29958.98	+190.62
		+0.64%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45493.66	+447.85
		+0.99%
HANG SENG	26344.14	-200.96
		-0.76%
SENSEX	82159.97	-466.26
		-0.56%
FTSE 100*	9226.68	+10.01
		+0.11%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.199	3.200
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.664	3.651
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1467	4.1274
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7625	4.7438

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7234	0.7254
US $	1.3823	1.3785

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6313	0.6130
US $	1.1802	0.8473

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3663.15	3643.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.68	63.57

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1985, finance ministers and central bankers of the U.S., France, Germany, Japan and the U.K., meeting at the Plaza Hotel in New York City, announced coordinated measures to reduce the foreign-currency value of the U.S. dollar, which was near all-time highs. The “Plaza Accord” worked, as the dollar began a decade-long decline, spurring U.S. exports and creating a windfall for U.S. investors in foreign stocks.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 0.6%, or 190.62 to 29,958.98 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.7%.
Endeavour Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 15.9%.
Today, 140 of 213 shares rose, while 72 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 21%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 12%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* This month, the index rose 4.9%
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 34.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.8% in the past 5 days and rose 5.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 on a trailing basis and 18.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.75t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.75% compared with 6.67% in the previous session and the average of 9.02% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 116.3428| 2.4| 44/7
Financials | 38.7099| 0.4| 12/12
Energy | 32.0211| 0.7| 33/6
Information Technology | 26.7924| 0.9| 7/2
Utilities | 6.0898| 0.6| 10/4
Health Care | -0.1725| -0.2| 2/2
Real Estate | -0.8462| -0.2| 8/11
Communication Services | -2.5055| -0.4| 0/5
Consumer Discretionary | -2.9209| -0.3| 5/4
Industrials | -5.0088| -0.1| 17/11
Consumer Staples | -17.8766| -1.8| 2/8
Shopify | 48.3200| 2.7| -22.9| 42.0
Barrick Mining | 40.3800| 7.4| 90.2| 119.6
RBC | 23.1700| 1.2| 2.0| 18.6
RB Global | -6.6220| -3.1| 44.3| 22.3
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -8.2290| -1.2| -1.1| -0.9
Constellation Software | -30.1900| -4.9| 48.9| -5.5
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Monday posted its 17th record finish in 22 sessions as artificial intelligence was very much top to the fore in North America news and views, but Rosenberg Research and National Bank were divided on what impact AI is already having on their respective investment theses.
Despite mixed commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 190.62 points, or 0.6%, at 29,958.98, with the Battery Metals Index up near 3.2%, and both Energy and Base Metals up near 1.4%.
In contrast no sector fell as much as even 0.5%, while Information Technology was little changed.
In contrast, U.S. equity indexes were higher as technology stocks rallied there, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.7%, boosted by news around AI.
One of the big news stories of the day is that U.S. chipmaker and tech bellwether Nvidia (NVDA) plans to invest up to US$100 billion in startup OpenAI under a new agreement.
Only days ago, Nvidia had committed US$5 billion to Intel (INTC) while it is also partnering to invest up to 11 billion British pounds in the U.K.
The AI news updates come as David Rosenberg and Edward Campbell at Rosenberg Research published a note that said, “structural forces like AI, decarbonization, and demographics are becoming bigger drivers of change than the traditional business cycle”.
Among key takeaways in their note, Rosenberg and Campbell said for much of the modern era, investors relied on the business cycle as their compass, timing expansions, recessions, and central bank pivots.
They added: “That signal is now fading, as structural ‘mega-forces’ are reshaping markets in ways cycles alone cannot explain”.
According to Rosenberg and Campbell, these forces include AI and automation, decarbonization, geopolitical realignment, demographic shifts, and digital finance.
“These are not passing winds, but tectonic shifts, redirecting capital and redefining winners and losers,” the duo said, before adding: “In this new regime, cycles are ripples atop deeper tides, and the edge lies in mapping long arcs of change rather than calling the next storm”.
But in another AI related note, National Bank noted Constellation Software (CSU.TO) hosted a Q&A panel session on AI with President Mark Leonard and four of the company’s AI specialists to discuss the impact of AI on the company.
What’s clear from the session is that Constellation is engaged in AI, but the company has not seen a clear, positive or negative, impact on its business, the bank said.
“Overall,” National Bank added, “while the session was informative to addressing how Constellation is approaching AI, there was nothing material to change our investment thesis.
In our view, the company is taking a pragmatic approach to AI much like they’ve done with everything else that’s made them successful.
For Constellation, that means there’s nothing conclusive to say on the topic of AI at this point.”
Constellation shares closed down near 5% on the TSX.
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high late afternoon on Monday, continuing to run up on expectations around further interest-rate cuts, a weak dollar and strong safe-haven demand.
Gold for December delivery was up $74.70 to US$3,780.50 per ounce, rising above the Sept.16 record close of US$3.725.10.
But West Texas Intermediate oil slipped again, falling for a fourth session as the market focuses on rising supply and slowing autumn demand even as geopolitical worries continue to limit losses.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed down $0.04 to settle at US$62.64 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down $0.06 to US$66.62.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders defied calls for a breather after a $15 trillion stock rally from April lows, with Nvidia Corp. boosting optimism on artificial intelligence after pledging to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI.
Tech led gains in the S&P 500, with the US equity benchmark hitting its 28th record this year.
The world’s largest chipmaker rallied about 4%.
Its investment is intended to help OpenAI build data centers with a capacity of 10 gigawatts of power using Nvidia’s advanced AI chips to train and deploy OpenAI’s models.
At a time when equities are yet again at all-time highs on the back of strength in big tech, investors should be “responsibly bullish,” according to Tony Pasquariello at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“Do I love the positioning setup and tactical risk/reward?
I don’t,” he wrote. “Do I think you should be stepping in front of the US mega cap tech freight train? I don’t.”
Action was relatively muted in the bond market, with US yields slightly higher ahead of this week’s key inflation gauge and a trio of Treasury auctions.
The dollar halted a three-day gain.
The crypto world got hit. Gold rose to a record.
Several Fed officials are set to speak at public events, including Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday.
In his first policy speech since joining the Fed, Governor Stephen Miran laid out his argument for aggressively lowering interest rates.
Meantime, Fed Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem noted he sees limited room for cuts amid elevated inflation.
His Cleveland counterpart Beth Hammack said officials should be cautious to avoid overheating the economy.
Investor focus is likely to shift to the Fed’s tolerance of sticky inflation in 2026, and away from worries about a weaker labor market, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson.
“Should the administration’s intention to ‘run it hot’ play out next year while the Fed cuts rates, revenue and earnings growth could come in much stronger than expected,” he wrote.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief US equity strategist, David Kostin, boosted his three-month price target for the S&P 500 to 6,800 on Friday.
He also lifted six- and 12-month estimates to 7,000 and 7,200, respectively.
The gauge traded near 6,700 on Monday.
“During the past 40 years, the S&P 500 has generated a 15% median 12-month return when the Fed resumed cutting rates against a backdrop of continued economic growth,” he noted.
Stocks have been bucking the historical September weakness so far, thanks to an extremely favorable setup with Fed rate cuts, strong earnings, solid economic growth and muted inflation, according to Rick Gardner at RGA Investments.
“The stock-market’s strength is making it tougher to put new money to work, as valuations are rising, which makes it all the more important for investors to be selective and bottoms up,” he said.
History shows that rallies similar to the one the market has seen this year are difficult to derail.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has advanced by roughly 5.5% on average in the final four months of the year when it has notched at least 20 records by late August, as it did this year, according to Sam Stovall at CFRA Research.
Those gains could come with a few bumps in the road, Stovall said.
Still, “while another retreat in stocks may be looming, traders haven’t expended all of the market’s fuel yet,” he said.
Pockets of exuberance are appearing as equity positioning in the US keeps climbing, Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte said.
Yet it isn’t close to extremes that would suggest lopsided risks of reversal, he added.
“Of course, there are reasons to be mindful, given the current high valuations compared to long-term averages,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“After such a strong recent run, a period of consolidation should not come as a surprise, in our view.”
Still, his base case calls for the S&P 500 to reach 6,800 by June 2026.
And in a bull case, he sees the index hitting 7,500.
There was no sign of seasonal weakness in the first three weeks of September, but with the Fed’s rate cut in the rearview mirror, the market will be searching for fresh sources of momentum, according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“In the short term, if economic data comes in soft, it may need to be in a ‘Goldilocks’ zone — soft enough for the Fed to continue cutting, but not weak enough to fuel recession concerns — for the market to avoid excessive volatility bumps,” he said.
The Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation likely grew at a slower pace last month, offering policymakers some breathing room to address weakness in the US labor market.
A report on Friday is forecast to show the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in August, compared with 0.3% in July.
On an annual basis, the so-called core measure is seen holding at a still- elevated 2.9%.
“August PCE is likely to show gradual tariff passthrough into goods prices and moderating services inflation,” said Oscar Munoz at TD Securities.
“Personal income and spending likely moderated.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Oracle Corp. would provide security and help oversee the re- creation of a new US version of TikTok’s algorithm under a deal taking shape to sell the popular Chinese-owned app to a consortium of American investors, a White House official said.
** Oracle promoted two executives, Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia, to the joint role of chief executive officer. Safra Catz, who has led the company since 2014, will become the executive vice chair of the board.
* Walt Disney Co. said Jimmy Kimmel Live! will return to the air on Tuesday, ending a suspension imposed following controversial remarks its ABC late-night host made about the assassination of Republican activist Charlie Kirk.
* ASML Holding NV’s recent rally got a fresh boost on Monday as Morgan Stanley joined the ranks of the stock’s bulls, signaling that the chip-equipment maker may at last show a major uplift from artificial intelligence demand.
* Pfizer Inc. will pay $4.9 billion for the obesity startup Metsera Inc. in a bid to catch up to rival drugmakers after failing to compete with its own weight-loss medications.
* CVS Health Corp. subsidiary Omnicare Inc. has filed for bankruptcy after the pharmacy-services provider was ordered to pay $949 million over claims it improperly dispensed prescription drugs to individuals in long-term care.
* T-Mobile US Inc. is promoting Chief Operating Officer Srini Gopalan, to the top job, teeing up a new era for the US’s second-largest wireless carrier as it competes for customers in a market that now also spans home internet and satellite service.
* Walmart Inc. will start delivering refrigerated prescriptions to homes as the world’s largest retailer looks to expand the reach of its pharmacy and deliveries.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. plans to move forward with its seventh oil project in Guyana after receiving required regulatory approvals, according to a statement.
* MetLife Inc. expects third-period income from its private equity and real estate investments to meet its quarterly target for the first time this year, according to a filing Monday.
* Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. sank after the owner of Canada Dry and Snapple brands was hit with its only sell rating from BNP Paribas Exane.
* Compass Inc. agreed to buy Anywhere Real Estate Inc. in a deal that would create a combined company with a roughly $10 billion enterprise value, cementing Compass’s status as the largest residential brokerage in the US.
* ODP Corp., owner of the Office Depot retail chain, is being acquired by private equity firm Atlas Holdings for about $1 billion.
* Newly formed Strive Inc. agreed to acquire Semler Scientific Inc. in a deal that combines two publicly traded Bitcoin treasury companies.
* Porsche AG scaled back its electric-vehicle plans, correcting an expensive strategy that’s depressed its margins and is dragging down parent Volkswagen AG.
* Roche Holding AG’s experimental drug giredestrant helped patients with a form of advanced breast cancer live longer without the disease worsening in an advanced trial.
* BBVA SA raised the value of its takeover bid for Banco Sabadell SA by about 10%, a last-ditch effort to get a deal over the line that’s been delayed by regulatory reviews and government opposition for more than a year.
* Samsung Electronics Co. jumped after reports it’s won approval from Nvidia Corp. for the use of advanced memory chips, which marks a breakthrough for the Korean technology leader.
* BYD Co. fell after a report that Warren Buffett’s investment firm offloaded its stake in the Chinese electric-vehicle maker.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The balance of risks heading into a big week filled with Federal Reserve speakers tilts toward pricing for additional interest-rate cuts — a scenario that will put a floor under stocks.”

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.6%
* Nvidia rose 3.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1799
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3516
* The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 147.74 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.8% to $112,198.11
* Ether fell 7.6% to $4,137.7
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.15%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.75%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.71%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.60%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.77%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 1.7% to $3,747.97 an ounce

Have a wonderful evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants.”– Hon Louis Dembitz Brandeis

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday!
Carolann is away from the office today; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

September 19, 1960:  LIFE magazine celebrates artist Anna Mary “Grandma” Moses’ 100th birthday by putting her on their cover
September 19, 2005: TV sitcom “How I Met Your Mother” premieres, starring Josh Radnor, Neil Patrick Harris, Cobie Smulders, Jason Segel and Alyson Hannigan
September 19, 2008: Struggling to stave off financial catastrophe, the Bush administration asked Congress for $700 billion to buy up troubled mortgage-related assets from U.S. financial institutions. Go to article

Tiny ‘brains’ grown in the lab could become conscious and feel pain — and we’re not ready
Lab-grown brain tissue is too simple to experience consciousness, but as innovation progresses, neuroscientists question whether it’s time to revisit the ethics of this line of research.

First-ever black hole to be directly imaged has changed ‘dramatically’ in just 4 years, new study finds
The polarization pattern around M87* — the first black hole to be directly imaged by the Event Horizon Telescope — has changed direction, and scientists aren’t sure why.

New report warns that China could overtake the US as top nation in space — and it could happen ‘in 5-10 years,’ expert claims
A new report from the Commercial Space Federation warns that China could soon overtake the U.S. in the “new space race.” The country’s rapid progression starkly contrasts the limitations imposed on NASA by record-breaking budget cuts.

Skywatching alert! See 2 bright comets on the same night as a meteor shower this October
Comet C/2025 R2 (SWAN) can now be seen with binoculars close to Mars in the western sky after sunset.

Saturn will be at its biggest and brightest on Sept. 21 — here’s how to see it
In a once-a-year event, Saturn is about to reach opposition, with the ringed planet appearing its best and brightest as it approaches its closest point to Earth.

Vast source of rare Earth metal niobium was dragged to the surface when a supercontinent tore apart
Potentially the largest known source of niobium discovered in central Australia formed 830 million years ago, and we can thank the breakup of the ancient supercontinent Rodinia.

How to see the moon, Venus and the bright star Regulus in an ultraclose conjunction tomorrow
Watch the crescent moon, Venus and the bright star Regulus align in a rare predawn close conjunction tomorrow.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Diyarbakır, Turkey
Chef Yusuf Altınkaya carves the city’s historical sites into watermelons
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Sydney, Australia
A surfer rides a wave as the sun rises over Bondi Beach
Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Istanbul, Turkey
A woman takes part in a photoshoot on a balcony above the Bosphorus
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 19^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46315.27	+172.85
		+0.37%
S&P 500	6664.36	+32.40
		+0.49%
NASDAQ	22631.48	+160.76
		+0.72%
TSX	29768.36	+314.83
		+1.07%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45045.81	-257.62
		-0.57%
HANG SENG	26545.10	+0.25
		—
SENSEX	82626.23	-387.73
		-0.47%
FTSE 100*	9216.67	-11.44
		-0.12%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.200	3.185
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.651	3.624
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1274	4.1044
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7438	4.7242

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7254	0.7248
US $	1.3785	1.3796

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6191	0.6176
US $	1.1746	0.8513

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3643.70	3681.00
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.57	63.57

Market Commentary:
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 1.1%, or 314.83 to 29,768.36 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.3% on Aug. 6.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 138 of 210 shares rose, while 71 fell.
Barrick Mining Corp. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 9.7%.

Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 15 times. The next day, it advanced eight times for an average 0.7% and declined seven times for an average 1.4%
* This year, the index rose 20%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 11%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2020
* So far this week, the index rose 1.7%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 33.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 18.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.71t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.67% compared with 6.20% in the previous session and the average of 9.20% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 175.3679| 3.9| 39/8
Financials | 82.5691| 0.9| 20/4
Information Technology | 31.3281| 1.0| 6/4
Industrials | 16.3754| 0.5| 20/9
Consumer Staples | 15.1402| 1.5| 8/1
Consumer Discretionary | 6.8125| 0.7| 4/5
Utilities | 4.6584| 0.5| 8/6
Communication Services | 1.9929| 0.3| 3/2
Real Estate | 1.6970| 0.3| 17/2
Health Care | -0.1148| -0.2| 2/1
Energy | -20.9824| -0.4| 11/29
Barrick Mining | 48.4900| 9.7| 152.2| 104.4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 32.1200| 4.3| 229.1| 97.5
Franco-Nevada | 21.1400| 5.6| 380.5| 74.6
Imperial Oil | -3.4010| -2.4| 182.7| 42.9
Cenovus | -5.8930| -2.7| 118.6| 7.4
Suncor | -14.0900| -2.8| 30.3| 11.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange surged to another record close Friday, its 16th in the last 21 sessions, with the Bank of Canada now seen likely to cut its key benchmark interest rate again in October to, as National Bank says, “give the faltering economy some breathing room”, even as Rosenberg Research is still wary about any “potential red flag”.
Even with commodity prices mixed, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index jumped 314.83 points, or 1.05%, to 29,768.36. When the index recorded its first record close of September it was at 28,615.62.
Most sectors were higher, with Base Metals the biggest gainer, up 1%.
Energy was the biggest loser, down 2.2%.
Reflecting this in commodities, gold had moved higher late afternoon on Friday, following two losing sessions from record highs, even as the dollar and yields rose.
Gold for December delivery was last seen up $40.10 to US$3,718.40 per ounce, staying under Tuesday’s record high of US$3,725.10.
But West Texas Intermediate oil closed lower, falling for a third day on rising supply while slowing growth cuts into demand.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed down $0.89 to settle at US$62.68 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down $0.78 to US$66.66.
According to National Bank in its latest Monthly Economic Monitor an economic slowdown has convinced the Bank of Canada that inflation risks are now much lower than a few months ago, especially since the government has significantly reduced retaliatory tariffs.
National Bank noted the BoC, therefore, resumed lowering interest rates in September, and may do so again in October to “give the faltering economy some breathing room”.
Subsequently, National Bank added, the BoC will have to adapt its actions to developments in the trade situation, but also to the federal budget in November, which could also stimulate the Canadian economy.
Meanwhile, Rosenberg Research Technical Analysis Consultant Walter Murphy noted the TSX is on pace to make it five weeks straight of posting both a higher weekly high and a higher weekly low.
Perhaps more importantly, Murphy also noted, there has only been one week (the week ending August 1) since the April low that the index suffered a lower weekly low.
“So,” he said, “if the index records a lower weekly low in the weeks immediately ahead, that could be a potential red flag.”
With that performance in mind, Murphy noted the TSX’s weekly momentum indicator, Coppock Curve, actually peaked in late July and has been flat lining ever since.
As a result, he said, the indicator is on pace to be in a confirmed downtrend in the first part of October.
“The resulting bearish bias would likely continue through the fourth quarter.
This implies that a coming weekly lower low in the TSX could develop while the Coppock indicator is in the early stages of a multi-month downtrend,” Murphy added.
Meanwhile, Murphy noted, the TSX is challenging Fibonacci resistance at 29,378-30,198.
A “meaningful” breakout through this range (i.e., above 30,832) would bring 33,800 into view, he said.
With those pending momentum pressures in mind, Murphy said a Fibonacci 38.2%-61.8% retracement of the post-April uptrend would not be a surprise. Based on the gains to date, such a retracement allows for a challenge of 26,673-24,976.
Murphy noted the TSX/S&P 500 relative strength line is challenging its post-2023 downtrend line.
He also noted the associated weekly Coppock Curve is on the oversold side of the neutral zero line but appears to have the time and potential to rally decisively into the positive side of neutral.
In turn, Murphy said, this could help the TSX’s relative strength line break out through trendline resistance as well as chart resistance at 4.66 (compared to the current 4.44).
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street closed out the highly anticipated Federal Reserve week with stocks notching fresh all- time highs as prospects for more rate cuts bolstered the outlook for corporate earnings.
While calls for a temporary breather have emerged after an almost $15 trillion rally in the S&P 500 from its April lows, bullish sentiment has prevailed.
That was after Fed officials resumed easing policy at a time when the economy is still growing, sending a constructive signal for risk taking.
“A Fed easing cycle in a non-recessionary environment has historically helped support stocks, and we see further gains underpinned by AI, earnings, and consumption,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The S&P 500 topped 6,660 Friday, with tech leading the charge.
A gauge of smaller firms dropped from a record.
Trading volume spiked into the close amid a $5 trillion triple-witching options expiry.
About 27.7 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges — the third-busiest day since Bloomberg started compiling the data in 2008.
Treasuries continued in consolidation mode, and were slightly cheaper across the curve.
That was after Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week signaled officials will take the next rate decisions “meeting by meeting.”
Nonetheless, swaps still show bets on nearly two more rate cuts in 2025. The dollar rose.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran told CNBC his decision to dissent from fellow policymakers’ rate move this week was driven by his view that tariffs have had no material impact on inflation.
Separately, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said he supported the decision to lower rates and penciled in two additional cuts this year. 
“The Fed’s rate cut has set a bullish tempo for equity markets,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler, who expects brief consolidation.
“These recent new high milestones will likely serve as a ‘pit-stop’ for this bull market before resuming higher.”
Mark Hackett at Nationwide notes that while September has historically delivered pullbacks, this year’s market has defied that pattern.
“Still, with the S&P 500 trading at 22 times forward earnings and volatility suppressed, a period of consolidation or choppiness would be a normal and healthy development.”
At JPMorgan Asset Management, David Lebovitz says the big question is whether investors should be nervous with equity indices at or near all-time highs, spreads near all-time lows, and valuations rich across the board.
“Elevated equity valuations reflect still-solid fundamentals,” he said, “leaving us comfortable with our modest overweight to equities, while the current level of spreads keeps us neutral on high yield given limited room for price appreciation.”
US stocks are trading at record levels with earnings season right around the corner, and improving expectations for Corporate America’s profit growth indicate that the rally can keep going.
Among the companies in the S&P 500 that provided guidance for their third-quarter results, more than 22% were expecting to beat analysts’ expectations — the highest reading in a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
In addition, the share of firms issuing worse-than-expected profit forecasts was the lowest in four quarters as well.
Speaking of earnings, the Securities and Exchange Commission will move forward with plans to overhaul investor disclosure rules for publicly-traded companies, agency Chairman Paul Atkins said Friday.
The announcement comes the same week that President Donald Trump issued a social media post suggesting the SEC should move to semi-annual, rather than quarterly reporting.
Meantime, Bank of America Corp. strategists said the run in US big tech stocks over the past two years has further to go and investors should position for more gains.
A BofA team led by Michael Hartnett studied 10 equity bubbles since the start of the previous century, finding that these periods of extreme overvaluation produced average trough- to-peak gains of 244%.
That suggests that, after rising 223% from their March 2023 low, the Magnificent Seven cohort has “more to go.”
Both global and US equity funds saw their biggest week of inflows since December, BofA strategists said in a note that cites EPFR Global data.
Investors allocated about $68.4 billion to global equity funds for the week ended Sept. 17, while $57.7 billion went into US stock funds.
Nevertheless, this was the seventh-straight week in which bears outnumbered bulls in the American Association of Individual Investors survey.

Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc.’s iPhone 17 Pro, Pro Max and iPhone Air went on sale Friday. The new phones, which bring a fresh look in addition to battery life and camera improvements, attracted long lines at Apple stores from Hong Kong to London to New York to Los Angeles.
** Multiple shoppers interviewed by Bloomberg News indicated they were upgrading belatedly from Apple’s four-year-old iPhone 13 series.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is moving to break into the wholesale power-trading business to better manage the massive electricity needs of its data centers.
* Google will meet the European Union’s deadline to propose changes to its advertising technology business after a near-€3 billion ($3.5 billion) fine — but won’t include the full breakup the EU and industry rivals have previously pushed for.
* The US and China are closer to final agreement on a sale of TikTok’s US operations to American investors, President Donald Trump said after a call with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that focused in part on a deal to spare the popular app from a ban.
* Neuralink Corp., Elon Musk’s brain implant company, plans to launch a clinical trial in the US in October aiming to use its device to translate thoughts into text, potentially opening up new possibilities for speech-impaired people to communicate.
* Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp. are poised to win aircraft orders from Turkey as soon as next week for as many as 250 commercial planes and additional F-16 fighter jets, with possible resolution over a long-running F-35 dispute.
** Boeing said it would not consider new contract terms approved by a majority of striking St. Louis-area factory workers on Friday.
* FedEx Corp. reinstated its profit and sales forecast, saying revenue will grow by 4% to 6% in the current fiscal year, topping Wall Street estimates.
* United Parcel Service Inc. was downgraded to market perform at BMO Capital Markets, which sees “persisting macro challenges” for the package-shipping company.
* Lennar Corp.’s forecast for quarterly home orders missed analysts’ estimates as affordability concerns and the wavering job market keep a lid on buyer demand.
* Intel Corp. was cut to sell at Citigroup Inc., which pointed to the beleaguered chipmaker’s rich valuation. Shares rallied 23% on Thursday after Nvidia Corp. agreed to invest $5 billion in the company.
* A panel of new vaccine advisers picked by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voted Friday to end the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s universal recommendation that people of all ages get Covid shots, moving the decision from individuals to one made in coordination with medical professionals instead.
* Porsche AG and its parent Volkswagen AG cut their outlook for the year, citing the sports-car maker taking a €1.8 billion ($2.2 billion) hit to operating profit linked to pushing back the introduction of new electric vehicles.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“USstocks and bonds are split on the economic outlook, with equities looking too complacent about the probabilities of a recession.”

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1748
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3472
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.94 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2% to $115,180.47
* Ether fell 3.6% to $4,442.24
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.12%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.75%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.72%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.57%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.74%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.4% to $62.68 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.1% to $3,684.36 an ounce

–With assistance from Isabelle Lee and Lu Wang.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” Every runner understands this. Front runners always work the hardest, and risk the most.” — Philip Hampson Knight “Phil”

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office today; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.
September 18, 1759: Battle of Quebec ends, French surrender to British who capture Quebec City
September 18, 1793: President George Washington laid the cornerstone of the U.S. Capitol. Go to article
September 18, 1812: Great Fire of Moscow burns out after five days, destroys 75% of the city and kills 12,000 people
September 18, 1837: Charles Lewis Tiffany and John B. Young co-found a “stationery and fancy goods emporium” in New York City, renamed in 1853 as “Tiffany & Co.”
September,18, 1851: First edition of The New York Times is published for 2 cents a copy
International Equal Pay Day, September 18, 2025, Read more.
Anthropologist claims hand positions on 1,300-year-old Maya altar have a deeper meaning
A well-known Maya stone carving known as Altar Q, located at the site of Copán in Honduras, may use hand signs to represent key dates in the Maya Long Count Calendar, a new study claims.
‘The sun is slowly waking up’: NASA warns that there may be more extreme space weather for decades to come
A new NASA study suggests that solar activity will remain high or rise further in the coming decades, contradicting previous assumptions that the sun was quieting down — and scientists “don’t completely understand” why.
Scientists invent new sunscreen made from pollen
Traditional chemical sunscreens can damage coral reefs. Scientists say there’s a fix using one derived from tea plant pollen.
‘Rare’ ancestor reveals how huge flightless birds made it to faraway lands
The mystery of how related flightless birds ended up so far apart on different continents may have been solved.
‘There’s no shoving that genie back in the bottle’: Readers believe it’s too late to stop the progression of AI
Over 1,700 readers responded to a Live Science poll, and 30% of them believe it is too late to halt the development of artificial intelligence (AI).
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Munich, Germany
A marching band performs during the press tour of the Oktoberfest grounds
Photograph: Felix Hörhager/AP

Paris, France
A portrait by Pablo Picasso of his muse Dora Maar not seen for 80 years is unveiled at the Hotel Drouot auction house
Photograph: Stéphane de Sakutin/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Birmingham, England
Dancers take part in a dress rehearsal of Black Sabbath – The Ballet
Photograph: Katja Ogrin/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 18^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46142.42	+124.10
		+0.27%
S&P 500	6631.96	+31.61
		+0.48%
NASDAQ	22470.72	+209.39
		+0.94%
TSX	29453.53	+131.87
		+0.45%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	45303.43	+513.05
		+1.15%
HANG SENG	26544.85	+363.54
		+1.35%
SENSEX	83013.96	+320.25
		+0.39%
FTSE 100*	9228.11	+19.74
		+0.21%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.185	3.188
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.624	3.610
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.1044	4.0872
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7242	4.6901

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7248	0.7261
US $	1.3796	1.3772

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6262	0.6149
US $	1.1788	0.8483

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3681.00	3695.40
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.57	64.05

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1873, Jay Cooke & Co. of Philadelphia, one of the nation’s largest investment banks, collapsed as a result of failed speculations in railroad stocks—triggering the Panic of 1873. Mr. Cooke—and the entire financial world—were taken completely by surprise. Just the night before, he had lavishly entertained President Ulysses S. Grant at the Cooke family mansion in Chelton Hills, Pa.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 131.87 to 29,453.53 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.0%.
Capital Power Corp. had the largest increase, rising 6.2%.
Today, 122 of 210 shares rose, while 84 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.7%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.6%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 32.5% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 5.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 on a trailing basis and 18.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.69t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.20% compared with 6.57% in the previous session and the average of 9.34% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 66.9066| 2.2| 9/1
Financials | 50.9517| 0.5| 20/4
Materials | 13.8404| 0.3| 25/20
Energy | 9.6346| 0.2| 22/17
Utilities | 4.7662| 0.5| 7/7
Consumer Staples | 0.9003| 0.1| 6/4
Health Care | 0.3398| 0.5| 3/0
Real Estate | -1.7302| -0.3| 4/14
Industrials | -1.9124| -0.1| 21/8
Consumer Discretionary | -2.9110| -0.3| 5/4
Communication Services | -8.9102| -1.4| 0/5
Shopify | 52.6000| 3.0| 5.7| 37.1
Brookfield Corp | 20.8800| 2.2| -23.0| 18.1
Barrick Mining | 10.7100| 2.2| 29.7| 86.3
Ivanhoe Mines | -4.4150| -6.5| 124.9| -25.5
Canadian National | -5.1090| -1.0| -39.7| -11.6
Thomson Reuters | -10.5900| -4.8| 158.4| -4.0
(MT Newswires)
(Corrects headline and first paragraph to show the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed a record high.)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday closed at a fresh record high, topping Monday’s prior record following a day-prior cut to interest rates, as Rosenberg Research, while writing about U.S. stocks, may have inadvertently summed up what is happening with Canadian equities too in a note entitled ‘Why Has This Turned Into A “Bad News Is Good News” Market?’.
Despite lower commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 131.87 points, or 0.45% ,to 29,453.53, with investors buoyed by the prospect of further rate cuts this year.
Most sectors were higher, led by Information Technology, up near 1.7%.
Both Telecoms and the Battery Metals Index were down more than 1.3%.
Of commodities, gold futures traded lower for a second day late afternoon Thursday as traders again took profits following Tuesday’s record high even as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time this year and indicated more cuts are coming.
Gold for December delivery was down US$39.00 to US$3,678.80 per ounce, continuing a retreat from Tuesday’s record high of US$3,725.10.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for a second day as rising production offset supply risks as Ukraine continues to attack Russian oil infrastructure, disrupting the country’s exports.
WTI oil for October delivery closed down $0.48 to settle at $63.57 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down $0.52 to $67.43.
Rosenberg Research Economist Mehmet Beceren noted the S&P 500 has seen its character shift in recent years as “its cyclical exposure has been declining while sensitivity to interest rates has been on the ascent”.
Once we accept this shift, we can better understand why the index has managed to shrug off weak economic news so easily, Beceren said.
Among key takeaways, Beceren noted equity duration is rising with mega-cap Tech now nearly half of the S&P 500, equity market duration has stretched into the 25-30-year range, which is 30% more than its historical average.
This is making stocks far more sensitive to interest rate moves, he said.
Becerent also noted profits are decoupling from the economic cycle: Mega-cap Tech profits are resilient, and their shares are being treated as safe assets, reducing the link between equity returns and the economic cycle.
He said: “U.S. equities are now more vulnerable to rates, yet they are less tied to the domestic economy, and that duality will matter even more as the next rate-cutting cycle unfolds.”
Sticking with the bad news and good news idea, Fitch Ratings in its latest ‘Global Economic Outlook’ released today raised its world growth forecasts for 2025 “moderately” since the June Global Economic Outlook (GEO) on better-than-expected incoming data for Q2 2025.
Still, it also said there is now evidence of an underlying U.S. slowdown in ‘hard’ economic data, adding positive surprises on eurozone growth have partly reflected US tariff front-running.
So, Fitch still expects world GDP to slow significantly this year.
Fitch’s global growth forecast is now 2.4% in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points since June but a “sizeable slowdown” from 2.9% last year and below trend.
China’s forecast has been raised to 4.7% from 4.2%, the eurozone’s to 1.1% from 0.8% and the U.S. to 1.6% from 1.5%.
World growth for 2026 is 0.1pp higher at 2.3%.
Fitch noted there has been a reduction in uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy after a flurry of announcements.
Its latest estimate of the average U.S. effective tariff rate (ETR) is 16%, very close to the rate assumed in June.
Fitch noted Mexico at 5% and Canada at 6%, as at August 12, 2025, face lower ETRs, due to better USMCA compliance and Europe’s ETR is also slightly lower, but this is offset by higher-than-expected rates for Asia excluding China.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s bets that Federal Reserve rate cuts will keep powering Corporate America drove stocks to all- time highs, with traders piling into the riskier corners of the market.
A day after the Fed deployed its first reduction this year and signaled the potential for more saw a rally that lifted the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 to records.
It’s the first time since November 2021 that all four major benchmarks closed together at fresh highs.
And it’s a rare feat too, occurring on just 25 other days this century.
Easier policy is a big source of support for stock bulls at a time when sky-high valuations are confronting bearish seasonality.
Over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 has posted an average decline of 0.7% in September, according to LPL Financial.
The gauge is up over 2.5% this month.
“The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates during a time when stocks are at record highs and the economy is still growing,” said Robert Schein at Blanke Schein Wealth Management.
“This dynamic is bullish for stocks.”
About 320 shares in the S&P 500 rose, with tech leading the way.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1%.
A $5 billion investment from Nvidia Corp. in Intel Corp. drove the ailing chipmaker up 23%.
The Russell 2000 added 2.5%.
In late hours, FedEx Corp.
reinstated its full-year profit outlook.
Bonds erased gains after data showed jobless claims dropped by the most in nearly four years, suggesting companies are still holding onto workers.
The lack of any Fed hawkish surprises and the restarting of the rate-cutting cycle could be enough to offset any seasonal headwinds and keep risk appetite on the table, said Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.
“Big tech stocks tend to outperform during lower interest- rate environments, and financials may see a boost from additional M&A and mortgage activity that may come about from lower rates,” Schein said.
As important as the tech stocks are for the market, Matt Maley at Miller Tabak says he’ll be watching the small caps testing their record high even more closely than the tech sector over the rest of September.
“If they can break above that level in a significant way over the next week or two, it should be very bullish,” Maley said.
“If, however, they fail at this level (or slightly above it), it’s going to be quite bearish.”
Worries have been mounting for weeks that the S&P 500’s push to record after record risks becoming a bubble, with the index’s swollen valuation cited most often as cause for concern.
Critics point to the tech sector’s outsize influence on this year’s gain, with just five stocks, all megacap tech firms, driving about half of the advance.
But a closer look shows tech giants have largely justified their elevated valuations with profit growth.
“Investors have happily bought every dip, largely thanks to AI-driven enthusiasm and consistently strong results from big tech,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“The concern is that if tech momentum cools, the rest of the market may struggle to justify current valuations.”
That leaves the rally vulnerable if investor confidence wavers, putting the S&P 500 forecast on a more cautious stance, he noted.
“Investors should continue to emphasize diversification and careful stock selection,” said Daniel Skelly at Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
“We believe lower interest rates, robust earnings growth, and AI tailwinds will support further potential gains for global equities over the next year,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Investors under-allocated to equities and looking to manage timing risks should consider phasing in and using market dips to add exposure to preferred areas, she said.
Her firm estimates that the Fed will cuts rates by a further 75 basis points between now and the first quarter of next year.
At Ameriprise, Anthony Saglimbene says prospects for two more rate cuts in 2025 is a positive for equity markets and risk appetite in general heading into year-end.
But that is “if labor market conditions do not deteriorate much further, consumer spending remains stable, and Big Tech delivers on third-quarter profit expectations.”
While the S&P 500 has fallen 1% on average during Septembers going back to 1971, it has gained 1.2% in the month when the US central bank was reducing borrowing costs and the economy was not contracting, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
“The proximity of the market to all-time highs suggests that this rate cut is likely non-recessionary in nature, aimed more at supporting continued economic growth rather than countering a downturn,” noted SentimenTrader analysts.
Non-recessionary cuts typically have a more constructive impact on equities, as they can extend bull markets and boost investor confidence, they said.
“Our base case remains that the US economy will remain resilient and that it is unlikely to spiral into a recession,” said David Lefkowitz at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“We therefore believe stocks are poised for further gains.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Nvidia Corp. agreed to invest $5 billion in Intel Corp. and said the two will co-develop chips for PCs and data centers, a surprise move to help prop up an ailing archrival.
* Walt Disney Co.’s ABC network is taking Jimmy Kimmel Live! Off the air indefinitely amid a backlash to remarks the late-night host made about the killing of Republican activist Charlie Kirk.
* Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc.’s sales guidance missed expectations, showing the brand is still dealing with the fallout from its controversial and short-lived logo change.
* American Express Co. is boosting the annual fee for its Platinum consumer credit card to $895 — a $200 increase — and adding about $1,500 of potential perks to help customers get over the sticker shock.
* Novo Nordisk A/S’s diabetes blockbuster Ozempic beat Eli Lilly & Co.’s older drug Trulicity in a real-world survey of certain US patients.
* The US Federal Trade Commission and seven states sued Live Nation Entertainment Inc. and its Ticketmaster subsidiary for failing to stem the use of automated ticketing bots and large- scale resale operations.
* Darden Restaurants Inc. rolled out smaller-portioned, lower- priced entrées at select Olive Garden locations during the quarter, part of its strategy to make menus more affordable and boost sales, Chief Executive Officer Rick Cardenas said on an earnings call.
* GE Healthcare Technologies Inc. is exploring options including the sale of a stake in its China unit, people familiar with the matter said.
* Uber Technologies Inc. will trial food deliveries by drone with Flytrex Inc., marking the rideshare giant’s return to experiments with logistics.
* Deutsche Bank AG warned that a broad rollback of financial regulations in the US will give the German lender’s overseas competitor an edge.
* Hyundai Motor Co. raised its revenue forecast for 2025 while paring profit expectations as the South Korean automaker accelerates investment in the US to mitigate tariff costs.
* Huawei Technologies Co. unveiled new technology from memory chips to AI accelerators Thursday, outlining publicly for the first time its multiyear plan to challenge Nvidia’s dominance in a growing market.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Friday’s call heavy triple-witching September options expiry unpins the SPX from its current range around 6,600.
This increases the likelihood of higher intraday volatility.”
—Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1784
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3548
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 147.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.6% to $117,487.8
* Ether rose 1.9% to $4,590.57
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.11%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.73%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.68%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.57%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.73%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $63.68 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,646.69 an ounce

–With assistance from Lu Wang.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
“The best way to keep one’s word is not to give it.” — Gen Napoleon Bonaparte

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office today; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

September 17, 1789: William Herschel discovers Saturn’s moon Mimas using his 40-foot reflector telescope
September 17, 1911: First airplane flight across the US from New York to Pasadena, California, in 82 hours and 4 minutes
September 17, 1937: First NFL game in Washington, D.C.; Redskins defeat NY Giants 13-3
September 17, 1956: Television is first broadcast in Australia
September 17, 2003: New York Stock Exchange chairman Dick Grasso resigned amid a furor over his $139.5 million pay package. Go to article

Skyscraper-size asteroid previously predicted to hit us in 60 years will zoom past Earth on Thursday — and you can see it live
The “potentially hazardous” asteroid 2025 FA22 will fly close past Earth at more than 24,000 mph on Thursday (Sept. 18). The space rock was previously predicted to have a slim chance of impacting our planet in 2089, temporarily earning it the top spot on a major risk list.

‘A genuine surprise’: Near-Earth asteroid Ryugu once had ‘flowing water’ that transformed its insides
A new analysis of asteroid Ryugu hints that the “potentially hazardous” space rock once had flowing water in its core, possibly leftover from the impact that created it.

1,900-year-old ‘treasure’ found in Roman-era family’s scorched house in Romania
A discovery in Romania shows the remains of an elite family’s treasures from the Roman era that were scorched in a fire.

‘This needs to happen fast’: Scientists race to cryopreserve a critically endangered tree before it goes extinct
Less than 400 angle-stemmed myrtle specimens remain in the wild in Australia. Scientists are working on ways to preserve the species so that we can bring it back at any point if it dies out.

Grumpy-looking Pallas’s cat photographed by camera trap in stunning photo from eastern Himalayas
The Pallas’s cat is just one of several wildcats spotted in Arunachal Pradesh, which also supports snow leopards, common leopards, clouded leopards, leopard cats and marbled cats.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY


Peshawar, Pakistan
A herder cools off his cattle in a river during a hot day
Photograph: Bilawal Arbab/EPA

Galaxies, runner-up: Cosmic Coincidences by Deep Sky Collective
The Deer Lick region, home to NGC 7331 and the famous Stephan’s Quintet, makes for a stunning display of galactic interaction. Over six months, 12 photographers and a dedicated processing team worked to integrate nearly 600 hours of exposure to reveal these faint details at the Dark Sky New Mexico observatory in the US

​​​​​​​Cromer, Norfolk
‘A couple enjoying the pier and sheltering from the sun on a particularly warm day.’
Photograph: Catherine Walton
Market Closes for September 17^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46018.32	+260.42
		+0.57%
S&P 500	6600.35	-6.41
		-0.10%
NASDAQ	22261.33	-72.63
		-0.33%
TSX	29321.66	+6.43
		+0.02%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44790.38	-111.89
		-0.25%
HANG SENG	26908.39	+469.88
		+1.78%
SENSEX	82693.71	+313.02
		+0.38%
FTSE 100*	9208.37	+12.71
		+0.14%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.188	3.150
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.610	3.587
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0872	4.0279
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6901	4.6486

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7261	0.7278
US $	1.3772	1.3740

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6283	0.6141
US $	1.1823	0.8458

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3695.40	3657.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	64.05	64.52

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1998, stocks took a worldwide pounding after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress that there were no plans for coordinated global interest-rate cuts. Despite the Russian debt crisis, Greenspan said he saw no immediate need to relieve the “peripheral gusts” of “financial turmoil.” The Dow slumped 2.7% to 7874. Analysts were pessimistic, but in three weeks U.S. stocks bottomed then went straight up.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 29,321.66 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Barrick Mining Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.3%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 4.8%.
Today, 84 of 210 shares rose, while 119 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.2%
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 31.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 18.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.69t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.57% compared with 7.32% in the previous session and the average of 9.48% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 13.1324| 0.1| 16/7
Energy | 11.6564| 0.2| 16/23
Consumer Discretionary | 4.6549| 0.5| 4/5
Communication Services | 3.5288| 0.6| 4/1
Health Care | 0.2434| 0.4| 2/0
Utilities | 0.0595| 0.0| 6/6
Materials | -0.5600| 0.0| 14/33
Real Estate | -2.0940| -0.4| 3/15
Consumer Staples | -3.0038| -0.3| 4/6
Information Technology | -9.8664| -0.3| 5/5
Industrials | -11.3186| -0.3| 10/18
Barrick Mining | 11.0700| 2.3| 41.5| 82.3
TD Bank | 10.8500| 0.8| -47.4| 41.1
Shopify | 10.4900| 0.6| 37.6| 33.1
Manulife Financial | -6.8320| -1.3| -6.6| -3.3
Celestica | -7.3590| -2.6| 5.2| 156.9
Constellation Software | -10.1500| -1.7| -31.6| -3.7
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange recovered more than 120 points over the last hour of trading Wednesday and closed modestly higher, buoyed by the prospect of at least one other interest rate cut coming from the Bank of Canada before the end of 2025
Wednesday’s gains on the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index came despite lower commodity prices, mixed sectors and even as RBC said the Bank of Canada Governing Council members were “cautious cutters” today in reducing the overnight target by 25 basis points to 2.5%, a first cut since March.
At the final bell, the Composite Index was up just 6.43 points to 29,321.66, but it had been down near the 29,200 level near 3pm Eastern time and looked set to post back-to-back losses for the first time since August 19 and 20.
Since then, the TSX has posted a succession of record closes, the most recent at 29,431.02 on Monday.
Of commodities, gold had moved down from a record high later afternoon Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s own interest rate cut, the first from it this year.
Gold for December delivery was down $30.70 to US$3,644.40 per ounce, falling off Tuesday’s record high.
Also, West Texas Intermediate closed lower following three days of gains, sticking within the tight range it has mostly remained within for more than a month, even as a report showed a much larger than expected drop in U.S. oil inventories and the Fed cut. WTI crude oil for October delivery closed down $0.47 to settle at US$64.05 per barrel, while November Brent crude was last seen down $0.56 to US$67.91.
On Canadian interest rates, National Bank noted that last month, just 7 basis points of easing was priced for the September decision, but the near-term rate outlook changed quickly after a weak Labour Force Survey and GDP report.
National Bank said with yesterday’s CPI report ushering in some encouraging inflation developments, the decision to ease today was an obvious one.
The rate statement reflects this shift as policymakers cite a weaker economy and a shifting balance of risks in justifying the decision to ease.
Moreover, Bank Governor Tiff Macklem said the cut was supported by a “clear consensus”, National Bank added.
National Bank noted conventional wisdom says that if you’re going to cut once, you’re probably going to go again, asking: does a single 25 bp move the needle in significant fashion?.
It noted the empirical record supports this view as the only time the BoC has held, then cut, then held was the mini 2015 easing cycle when the policy rate was at or below 1%.
National Bank said the BoC is trying to temper easing expectations as they removed the line from the July release that said, “there may be a need for a [rate] reduction”.
Still, National Bank added,it expects a follow-on cut in October.
National Bank said: “And while our base case outlook entails a 2.25% terminal rate (i.e., just one more cut), risks have clearly swung towards more easing being delivered.
Finger in the air, we’d assign a 40% probability to the terminal rate settling at 2% (or lower).
Incoming economic/inflation data, an October Business Outlook Survey, Canada-US trade developments and a fall budget will all help guide that view.”
As far as the BoC’s other policy levers are concerned, National Bank was not surprised to see the deposit rate left unchanged relative to the overnight target despite CORRA setting well above target all month.
It recalled that earlier CORRA pressures persisted for months before a deposit rate cut was deemed necessary.
This month, National noted, the BoC has not really tried to address higher repo rates with their usual tool (overnight repo operations) so there didn’t seem to be enough concern to warrant an adjustment.
Meanwhile, it also noted, the BoC did not announce it would be restarting treasury bill purchases, though National still anticipates that decision will come relatively soon in line with guidance from Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle.
Just before the close of trade, BMO Capital Markets published a note saying it also suspects rates won’t stay here, with the BoC likely to cut further in the months ahead.
BMO’s official call is two more cuts to 2.0%.
According to BMO, it’s not clear that the neutral range is stable.
BMO suspects that the BoC could clip that range next year by 25 basis points, in part due to milder potential GDP on much slower population growth.
But elsewhere, RBC published a note entitled ‘BoC – Cautious Cutters’ noting there was no direct forward guidance, but that the BoC “owned” the cut, emphasizing there was a clear consensus for the move and that it was consistent with “a weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation”.
Importantly, RBC said, the BoC’s current assessment of underlying inflation, at 2.5%, was unchanged from July so they said they will “proceed cautiously” and remain data dependent.
The door is open to an October cut, RBC added, noting they probably need to see stronger growth/labor markets to not move again in this cycle, while the timing of the Federal Budget, after the October BoC meeting, provides additional scope. “However, they are cautious cutters and any easing should be viewed through the lens of adjustment style moves.”

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street emerged largely unshaken from a high-stakes Federal Reserve meeting, as policymakers delivered a well-telegraphed rate cut that elicited muted moves across markets.
The announcement was followed by Jerome Powell’s remarks, underscoring the tension between the Fed’s two mandates that suggested “there’s no risk-free path” ahead.
After briefly rising, the S&P 500 fell by a mere 0.1%, weighed down by tech.
Bonds saw small losses.
It was the seventh straight time the dollar rose on a Fed Day, the longest such winning streak since 2001.
The reaction reflected a central bank striking a temperate posture — acknowledging cooling in the labor market and signaling it will remain data-dependent amid price risks.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to cut the target range for the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%.
Looking ahead, Powell said the Fed was now in a “meeting-by-meeting situation.”
Policymakers now see two additional quarter-point cuts this year.
That’s one more than projected in June.
They foresee one quarter-point cut in 2026 and one in 2027.
They also slightly upgraded their median outlook for growth in 2026.
They also forecast modestly higher inflation next year.
Wall Street’s Reaction:
* Art Hogan at B. Riley Wealth: As this is very much within consensus, we may see some short term “buy the rumor/sell the news” reaction in markets.
* Bret Kenwell at eToro: In-line, in-line, in-line. The Fed delivered exactly what the market was expecting. Will we see a classic “sell the news” reaction to the Fed announcement, particularly in the seasonally weak month of September? While markets could use a breather, bulls will likely line up to “buy the dip” provided that the economy avoids a recession and earnings expectations continue higher.
* Ryan Detrick at Carson Group: The door is open to more cuts later this year, but it is clear they are now more worried about the slowing labor market than inflation. All in all, today’s news didn’t rock the boat and there were no curve balls.
* Gina Bolvin at Bolvin Wealth Management Group the Fed’s 25 basis point cut is a clear signal: the softening labor market and stubborn inflation have pushed policymakers to act — but gradually.  This isn’t a pivot; it’s a measured step. For investors, this means modest rate relief, not fireworks.  Rate-sensitive sectors like housing and consumer discretionary may benefit, but caution remains key. The Fed is walking a fine line, and upcoming inflation and jobs data will determine what comes next.
* Peter Tchir at Academy Securities: Everyone is just trying to digest things. A lot of algos are whipping things around. It does seem that a lot of dovishness was already priced in.
* Christian Chan at AssetMark: The dovish tone of the statement gave way to a more balanced message in the press conference during which Powell highlighted the risk that tariff-related inflation could be more than a one-time event. Overall, today’s Fed action could be viewed as “goldilocks” move for the markets – growth expectations higher, the Fed is very aware of the risks to both the labor market and inflation, more rate cuts to come.
* Ronald Temple at Lazard: Investors should beware of taking the “dot plot” to the bank, as this is clearly an FOMC where the policy path is still unclear and where rising inflation could lead to a very different outlook in the months ahead.
* Steve Wyett at BOK Financial: Overall this move by the Fed was widely expected. So, it is not surprising the market reaction in stocks and bonds is a bit muted.  Powell’s tone and words in his press conference do indicate this was more a defensive move to avoid more weakness in the labor market and not one designed to spur a lot more growth. We think growth will be fine anyway.
* Dan Siluk at Janus Henderson Investors: The dot plot now implies two more cuts this year, but Powell downplayed its significance, framing the outlook as “more balanced” rather than decisively tilted toward labor market risks.  Markets may welcome the easing bias, but the messaging remains nuanced and far from a full pivot.
* Eric Teal at Comerica Wealth Management: Monetary policy actions were in line with our expectations with additional stimulus on the horizon. We are watching long rates closely as we anticipate the yield curve will steepen which bodes well for value-oriented sectors and smaller companies as the market broadens out.
* Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors: For now, boosting labor conditions is taking center stage. The path back to 2% inflation continues to lengthen, and the Fed’s dovish announcement today sends a clear message that they’re willing to live with moderately elevated inflation in the near term.
* Luis Alvarado at Wells Fargo Investment Institute: The restart of the rate cycle had been priced in the bond market expectations well in advance. The threat of having both inflation and unemployment rising simultaneously continues to create a big headache for the Fed’s interest rate policy.  Under this level of uncertainty, we believe fixed-income investors may benefit from being exposed to the intermediate portion of the curve (3–7-year maturities), striking the best balance between attractive yield and less sensitivity to potential interest rate risk.
* Jeff Roach at LPL Financial:  Investors are taking this decision in stride. As the risks to labor markets rise, we should expect further cuts in October and December.
* Simon Dangoor at Goldman Sachs Asset Management: The skew of the dot plot indicates that the Fed is likely to deliver 25bp cuts in October and December on top of today’s reduction. It would take a significant upside surprise in inflation or labor market rebound to take the Fed off its current easing trajectory.

Corporate Highlights:
* China’s internet watchdog has instructed companies including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. to terminate orders for Nvidia Corp.’s RTX Pro 6000D, the Financial Times reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
** This is a “counterproductive development,” US House Speaker Mike Johnson told CNBC.
* Apple Inc.’s smartphone sales in China in the weeks leading up to the iPhone 17 launch fell 6% from the year-earlier period, a deeper slump than is typical ahead of a new flagship product release.
* Reddit Inc. is in early talks to strike its next content- sharing agreement with Alphabet Inc.’s Google, aiming to extract more value from future deals now that its data plays a prominent role in search results and generative AI training.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby says a lack of new aircraft is impeding his plans to modernize the fleet and cash in on booming premium travel.
* Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. offered sales guidance for the current fiscal year that missed expectations, suggesting the brand is still dealing with the fallout from its controversial logo change.
* General Mills Inc. posted a solid quarter but kept its outlook in place as the maker of Cheerios cereal called out consumers being cautious from economic uncertainty.
* Patients on Eli Lilly & Co.’s experimental diabetes pill lost more weight and had better blood sugar control than those on an older, approved rival from Novo Nordisk A/S in the first head- to-head trial of the two medicines.
* Gemini Space Station Inc. shares extended declines Wednesday to fall below its initial offering price within days of debuting as a public company in the US, tracking some cryptocurrency- related stocks lower.
* WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC shares rose 14% in their trading debut after the water infrastructure company raised $634 million in an initial public offering that priced at the top end the marketed range.
* Lyft Inc. is partnering with Waymo for the first time to offer robotaxi service in Nashville starting next year, a deal that helps it better compete with rival Uber Technologies Inc.
* General Motors Co. is in preliminary talks to renew its longtime joint venture with China’s SAIC Motor Corp., signaling the US automaker’s budding optimism about its business in the world’s largest auto market after years of decline.
* StubHub Holdings Inc. priced its initial public offering at the midpoint of a marketed range to raise $800 million, capping co-founder Eric Baker’s years-long pursuit of a listing for the ticket-selling platform.
* Artificial intelligence chip startup Groq Inc. raised $750 million at a post-funding valuation of $6.9 billion, highlighting investor interest in companies seeking to alleviate a shortage of chips and computing power for AI workloads.
* Rithm Capital Corp. agreed to buy Paramount Group Inc., an office landlord in New York and San Francisco, for about $1.6 billion.
* Manchester United, the Premier League’s fallen giant, is struggling to keep tabs with its larger rivals after revenues flat-lined and losses continued to mount.
* British drugmaker GSK Plc pledged to invest $30 billion in the US over the next five years, making the announcement as President Donald Trump arrived in the UK for a highly anticipated state visit.
* AstraZeneca Plc’s Fasenra failed to meet its goal in a late- stage trial of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease for a second time, a blow to the drugmaker’s efforts to expand the market for the asthma treatment.
* Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. walked away from a proposed $19 billion offer for Australian natural gas producer Santos Ltd., saying a “combination of factors” discouraged it from making a final bid.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1826
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3638
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 146.76 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1% to $115,693.15
* Ether rose 0.5% to $4,523.64
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.06%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.68%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.63%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 3.54%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.66%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $63.94 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,661.40 an ounce

–With assistance from Sid Verma, Denitsa Tsekova, Vildana
Hajric and Lu Wang.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” The art of statesmanship is to foresee the inevitable and to expedite its occurrence.” — Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand

Shab Mohammadpour
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Mayflower Day.
September 16, 1620: Pilgrims deported from England.
1810: Mexican Independence Day.
September 16, 1959: Xerox unveils the 914 photocopier in a live TV demo, delivering the first successful instant copying machine for offices worldwide.
2008: The federal government announced an emergency $85 billion loan to rescue AIG, the world’s largest insurance company.

Laurne Bacall, actress, b. 1924.
B.B. King, musician, b. 1925.

Tourists fined and banned from Venice for swimming in canal
In Venice, you can’t swim pasta the rules. A quick dip in a historic Italian canal landed these tourists in hot water.

Bad Bunny is doing one more show in Puerto Rico, for all of us
The popular musician added a final bonus show in Puerto Rico, which will be streamed live on September 20.

How the NFL’s kickoff rule made the sport safer
With the new NFL season now in full flow, fans are still getting used to some of the changes in the sport.

Paradise Bay: The new destination for an A-list getaway
At this luxury destination, exclusive villas can cost around $50,000 a night.

Drumroll please: One woman inspires a new generation of musicians
Melissa Walker has dedicated her life to ensuring that kids have access to arts education. Watch this inspiring video to see how she’s using jazz to unlock young potential in New Jersey.

Diet change could make brain cancer easier to treat, early study hints

A new lab study exploited a unique aspect of metabolism in glioblastoma to boost the effectiveness of chemoradiation, turning the cancer’s properties against itself. Read More.

Scientists measure the ‘natal kick’ that sent a baby black hole careening through space for the first time

Two black holes merged together 2.4 billion light years away from Earth, and scientists have just figured out how fast the newborn ricocheted, and in which direction. Read More.

New EV battery tech could power 500-mile road trips on a 12-minute charge

An EV battery breakthrough from Korea could help give lithium-metal tech the green light. Read More.

RIP Robert Redford.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Ningbo, China
Fishing boats head out to the East China Sea after a four-and-a-half-month fishing moratorium ended in Zhejiang province, eastern China
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
The Museum of Tomorrow, a futuristic building with the appearance of a ship, is hosting the Nova Bienal Rio, which merges art and technology and features about 70 works from 30 countries
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Agoura Hills, US
An aerial view of the Wallis Annenberg wildlife crossing over the 101 freeway outside of Los Angeles in California. Officials hope it will eventually provide safe passage for threatened species such as mountain lions and connect protected areas in the Santa Monica mountains and the Sierra Madre range
Photograph: Mario Tama/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 16^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45757.90	-125.55
		-0.27%
S&P 500	6606.76	-8.52
		-0.13%
NASDAQ	22333.96	-14.79
		-0.07%
TSX	29315.23	-115.79
		-0.39%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44902.27	+134.15
		+0.30%
HANG SENG	26438.51	-8.05
		-0.03%
SENSEX	82380.69	+594.95
		+0.73%
FTSE 100*	9195.66	-81.37
		-0.88%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.150	3.167
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.587	3.599
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0279	4.0375
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6486	4.6602

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7278	0.7223
US $	1.3740	1.3844

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6297	0.6136
US $	1.1862	0.8430

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3657.65	3651.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	64.52	63.30

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1935, a new securities shop opened for business at 2 Wall St. bearing the names of co-founders Henry Morgan and Harold Stanley. Made up of former J.P. Morgan bankers, Morgan Stanley was a result of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act that split commercial and investment banking.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 29,315.23 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 1 sector lost; 129 of 210 shares fell, while 80 rose.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 7.2%.
Orla Mining Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 10.2%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.2%
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on Sept. 15, 2025 and 31.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 18.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.7t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.32% compared with 8.86% in the previous session and the average of 9.62% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -89.1749| -1.9| 7/40
Consumer Discretionary | -9.3387| -1.0| 1/8
Industrials | -9.2870| -0.3| 19/10
Financials | -8.3542| -0.1| 7/17
Utilities | -8.0152| -0.8| 2/12
Consumer Staples | -6.6746| -0.7| 2/8
Communication Services | -4.2903| -0.7| 1/4
Health Care | -1.8072| -2.6| 0/3
Real Estate | -1.5576| -0.3| 5/13
Information Technology | -1.1586| 0.0| 5/5
Energy | 23.8768| 0.5| 31/9
Cameco | -25.9900| -7.2| 67.9| 49.3
Manulife Financial | -14.9800| -2.8| 14.2| -2.0
Wheaton Precious Metals | -11.4300| -2.4| 109.2| 78.9
Suncor | 8.7630| 1.8| 4.8| 15.3
Bank of Montreal | 13.0200| 1.5| 13.3| 28.0
Canadian Natural Resources | 16.5600| 2.6| 26.8| 2.0
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed down from a record high Tuesday as market watchers await a Bank of Canada interest-rate decision tomorrow, with RBC saying it will be a “closer call than the market expects”, and as Teck Resources closed lower after a federal minister hinted a proposed deal with Anglo American may not get the green light.
With profit taking balancing any positivity around higher commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 115.79 points or 0.4% to 29,315.23, with most sectors lower.
Health Care was down 2.8% and Base Metals down near 1%.
In contrast, Energy was up 2.5% and the Battery Metals Index up 2%.
On commodities, gold continued its record run up midafternoon on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve’s policy committee begins a two-day meeting that is expected to end with the central bank’s first cut to interest rates this year.
Gold for December delivery was up $6.60 to US$3,725.60 per ounce, rising off Monday’s record close.
Also, West Texas Intermediate oil closed at a two-week high on weakening supply from Russia as Ukrainian attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure cut into physical supply while China continues buying to build its strategic reserves.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed up $1.22 to settle at $64.52 per barrel, the highest since Sept.2.
November Brent crude was last seen up $1.20 to $68.64.
In individual stock news, Industry Minister Melanie Joly said the Canadian government would want to see longer-term commitments to this country if Teck Resources (TECK-A.TO, TECK-B.TO) is allowed to merge with U.K.-based miner Anglo American, The Canadian Press reported.
“There have been conversations with the companies, and clearly we wanted to make sure that there would be a net benefit to Canada.
But I think right now that it’s not enough,” Joly said as she headed into a cabinet meeting Tuesday.
The report noted while Joly said the short-term matters, she added, “we need to think about longer term and how can we make sure that ultimately we create jobs, but we have a strong headquarters, not only now but also for the next decade.”
It cited Joly saying further conversations are needed and she plans to speak to the chief executives of both companies next week.
Teck’s Class B shares closed down $2.48 to $55.31.
In terms of two outstanding Canadian economic questions, one was answered today with Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne saying the governing Liberals will present a delayed federal budget, the first under new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, on Nov. 4.
The other big question, related to whether or not the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council members feel the time is right to re-start with rate cuts, will be answered tomorrow.
According to RBC Capital Markets, the market is doing a “full court press” for a BoC cut tomorrow at near 23bp priced, but it said the decision is probably more finely balanced within the BoC’s Governing Council, and in the minds of those at RBC.
The “easy” answer, RBC added, is a negative Q2 GDP print, two months of rising unemployment rate and a neutral CPI print today are sufficient conditions to re-start an easing cycle.
But it noted the Governing Council was somewhat divided in the context of a hold decision in July, with the Summary of Deliberations showing some Council members seeing more to do, others seeing the cutting cycle as over.
RBC noted “under-appreciated reasons why staying on the sidelines now is prudent”.
It said under the surface the GDP and employment data was “significantly less alarming” than the headlines, noting final domestic demand rebounded to near 3.5% in Q2 and youth and self-employed job losses the last two months are “not particularly concerning”.
RBC Economics recently highlighted weakness in exports and employment year to date is mostly contained to high tariff-exposed sectors.
“It could be a high hurdle for the BoC to rely on recent trade-policy distorted data to make the leap into re-starting the easing cycle, RBC added.
“Importantly,” RBC said, “fiscal policy is better suited to manage isolated economic problems.
Signs from fiscal authorities suggest next month’s Federal budget will be on the expansionary side, with any “austerity” on program spending likely to be more than offset by increased spending elsewhere (e.g. infrastructure, defence).
The fiscal side can provide a needed boost to overall sentiment and target measures to trade-impacted sectors. Provincial fiscal updates have leaned to larger deficits than earlier budgets.
“Is there,” RBC added, “enough urgency to move before incorporating the new information from the Federal budget?”
RBC noted upside inflation risks have diminished, with many retaliatory tariffs removed, and underlying core trends at three months annualized are moving lower, but it also noted underlying inflation still seems stuck around the 2.5% level, which is right where the BoC assessed it at the last Summary of Deliberations.
“Cutting into an elevated/sticky inflation backdrop requires high confidence that the future growth outlook will be soft,” RBC said.
Other considerations, RBC noted, are the “domestic vibes aren’t particularly worrisome” as sentiment indicators have improved from the low points earlier in the year, and according to RBC Economics Q3 is showing early signs of recovery.
It also noted potential GDP is falling and is likely 0% to 1% in 2025, with population growth headed to zero.
“Not much residual growth in the economy, never mind a boost from fiscal stimulus, is necessary for the economy to grow above trend, RBC added.
Lastly, RBC said, key metrics have all come in line with the BoC’s July forecasts on Q2 GDP, headline and core inflation, when the central bank decided to hold rates.
“To warrant a cut and provide a bridge until fiscal helps out, the BoC will need to have confidence that there is “urgency” on the growth side (i.e. below trend growth will persist and broaden from trade related distortions), “it added.
Meanwhile, CIBC in an FICC Strategy note with pre-BoC trading thoughts said the central bank is “universally” expected to restart the easing cycle tomorrow, lowering the policy interest rate by 0.25 basis points to 2.50%.
But CIBC expects the BoC to remain within the ‘flooridor’ system, maintaining the deposit rate at 5.0bps below the policy rate and the Bank rate at 25.0bps above.
“The reason for the ease reflects increased evidence that a weaker economy is putting downward pressure on inflation, while the upward price pressures from trade disruptions look very contained,” it added.
Elsewhere, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, said today’s CPI data “solidifies” a 25-bps cut at tomorrow’s meeting.
Macquarie continues to see a total of 50 bps in cuts.
Its base case is for the second cut to occur in October.
It added risks to this view are for greater easing with a third 25 bps cut also possible in December or January.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders gearing up for the Federal Reserve decision refrained from making big bets as they awaited clues on the path of rates that will shape the outlook for markets over the next few months.
A solid reading on retail sales did little to move trading, with a rally in equities fading near a record and bonds edging higher.
The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.6% after a similar gain in July.
The control-group sales — which feed into the calculation of goods spending for gross domestic product — climbed 0.7%, indicating a healthy quarter.
“The American consumer appears to be in good spirits,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“That’s good news for the economy, but it may heighten debate over how aggressively the Fed needs to cut rates.”
While Fed officials are still focused on bringing inflation to their target, they’re widely expected to cut rates in an effort to shield the labor market from further deterioration.
“Even if the job market is weak, it’s not hurting the consumer yet,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“While these numbers won’t prevent the Fed from cutting rates tomorrow, they reduce some of the longer-term dovish hopes.”
The S&P 500 lost 0.1%.
The Nasdaq 100 halted a nine-day advance.
Treasuries held gains after a solid sale of 20-year bonds.
The yield on two-year notes slid three basis points to 3.51%.
The dollar fell.
The euro hit its highest since 2021.
US PREVIEW: FOMC to Cut Rates Amid Open and Silent Dissents to Bret Kenwell eToro, given the recent labor-market data, retail sales were a big question coming into this week.
“In other words, would the recent job weakness impact consumer spending? The short answer appears to be no,” he said.
Kenwell noted that earnings estimates continue to move higher and consumer spending remains solid.
Provided these tailwinds remain in place, equities can continue to perform well, even if the market takes a breather, he said.
“Further, it’s important to note that historically, risk assets perform well when the Fed starts cutting rates in non- recessionary environments,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
While the retail-sales report was another piece of good economic news, much of the recent stock rally has been driven by expectations of six rate cuts over the next 12 months, according to Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
“These six cuts can only come if the job-market deterioration is material and the equity performance that came with it is dependent over it,” he said.
Bonds Hint Growth, Not Inflation, Is Now Stocks’ Chief Concern with the Fed’s post-meeting statement set to be released at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, investors will look for changes in the latest quarterly rates projections, known as the dot plot, and pore over Jerome Powell’s remarks a half-hour later.
Recent speculation about the need for a 50-basis point rate cut is not justified by the current data, according to Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
Broader economic indicators — including earnings and credit spreads — do not reflect the kind of deterioration typically warranting that level of action, she said.
“We join the chorus of voices anticipating a 25 basis-point Fed cut tomorrow,” noted Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments.
“That said: though we expect the market reaction to the Fed meeting to have a ‘sell the news’ flavor, we’d fade that pessimism in the near term.”
Money markets are fully pricing in a quarter-point Fed reduction Wednesday, and a series of interest-rate cuts over the next year.
An outlook echoing that view would be an encouraging sign for stock bulls, who have largely banked on a gradual easing path that keeps the economy from sliding into a recession.
While some investors are expecting a “sell the news” event, since Wednesday’s expected rate cut is widely priced in, Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management sees no obvious reason for a post-Fed selloff, given how earnings are still very strong and since the artificial intelligence theme is still intact.
“Even though stocks are at record highs, we are not seeing signs of euphoria,” he said.
“The IPO market has only recently started to unfreeze, and many investors are focused on the recent slowdown in hiring.
Stocks still have more room to climb the wall of worry.”
The equity options market is predicting a roughly 0.7% swing following the Fed meeting on Wednesday, tied for the second lowest expected move in the last 18 months, according to data from Susquehanna International Group.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed respondents are leaning “risk-on” (43%) reacting to the Fed meeting, 31% said “mixed/negligible” and 26% “risk-off.”
“We expect a 25 basis-point cut this week to be followed by three more cuts of the same size consecutively in the coming months, creating a favorable backdrop for the equity rally,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey showed a net 28% of global fund managers are overweight equities.
Opinions about growth showed the sharpest improvement in almost a year.
There are “bulls galore” as the risk of a “recessionary trade war” has ebbed, BofA strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.
He added that equity exposure isn’t at extreme levels yet, which bodes well for the rally to continue for now.
A rally that has taken US stocks to fresh records could experience turbulence in coming weeks before finishing the year with a flourish, according to Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner.
Near-term risks include stretched valuations, the seasonal volatility that has tended to occur in September and October and possible selling from trend-following funds.
Any potential weakness is unlikely to last, however, as the tailwinds that have buoyed stocks — including corporate spending on artificial intelligence and demand from retail traders — give them a lift in the closing months of 2025, Rubner said.
Worries have been mounting that the S&P 500’s surge becoming a bubble.
While critics point to the tech sector’s outsize influence on this year’s gain, it’s the rest of the market that is starting to look a bit overpriced, according to Seaport Research Partners.
An index of S&P 500 companies that excludes the technology sector has risen a solid 13% over the last year, but has seen profits grow by just 6.4%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
The S&P 500 Information Technology index has surged 27%, a rate that looks more restrained when put up against the sector’s earnings growth of 26.9%.
The resilience of the economy, combined with rate cuts, are going to keep this bull market running, noted Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“It always sounds smarter to be bearish and see threats around every corner, but a market that refuses to go lower – especially during the worst months of the year – sends a strong signal that dips should be bought in 2025,” he said.

Corporate Highlights:
* TikTok’s American operations would be acquired by an investor consortium that includes Oracle Corp., Andreessen Horowitz and private equity firm Silver Lake Management LLC under a framework deal that US President Donald Trump is set to discuss with
Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week.
* Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said US negotiators expressed disappointment to their Chinese counterparts when they learned during trade talks of China’s ruling that Nvidia Corp. had violated anti-monopoly laws with a high-profile 2020 deal.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google said it will invest £5 billion ($6.8 billion) over two years in the UK to help build an artificial intelligence economy in the country.
* President Trump filed a $15 billion defamation suit against The New York Times Co. and Penguin Random House LLC, accusing the paper of serving as a “mouthpiece” for the Democrats.
* Boeing Co.’s striking defense workers will vote Friday on a contract proposal drafted by union leaders that includes a 20% guaranteed wage increase and $10,000 signing bonus aimed at ending a six-week labor standoff.
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Scott Kirby says improving travel demand going into the fall indicates the economy is stronger than statistics show.
* Binance Holdings Ltd., the world’s largest crypto exchange, is moving toward a potential deal with the US Justice Department that would allow it to drop a key oversight requirement in its $4.3 billion settlement of allegations that it didn’t do enough to prevent money laundering, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Ralph Lauren Corp. sees revenue growth remaining similar to recent rates over the next three years, according to the preppy fashion company’s latest strategic outlook.
* Walt Disney Co. is bringing all of its marquee comics to a new digital platform and app in partnership with Webtoon Entertainment Inc., sending shares of the upstart company soaring.
** Walt Disney, Comcast Corp.’s Universal Studios and Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. are suing Chinese artificial intelligence startup MiniMax, accusing the company of pirating the studios’ intellectual property.
* Rithm Capital Corp. is nearing a purchase of office landlord Paramount Group Inc.
* Nestlé SA Chairman Paul Bulcke will step down early after investors questioned his handling of the ouster of the food company’s former chief executive officer due to an undisclosed romantic relationship with a subordinate.
* Dye & Durham’s shares plunged Tuesday after the legal software provider said it will miss the deadline for submitting its annual report, adding another hurdle for a company that has already faced pressure from an activist shareholder this year.
* Novo Nordisk A/S plans to seek US regulatory approval for a high-dose version of its blockbuster weight-loss shot Wegovy, another effort to counter Eli Lilly & Co. in the booming obesity market.
* Anglo American Plc and Teck Resources Ltd. haven’t done enough yet to show the advantages of their merger to the Canadian economy, said the country’s industry minister, who plans to meet with the companies’ chief executive officers next week.
* Thyssenkrupp AG has received a takeover offer for its steel division from India’s Jindal, opening a new chapter in the drawn-out search for a new owner of the struggling business.
* Tencent Holdings Ltd. raised 9 billion yuan ($1.27 billion) on Tuesday from its first bond sale in four years.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Ahead of a presumptive interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve, US stock valuations have reached levels comparable to those seen ahead of the dotcom bubble burst.
If the S&P 500’s current price of 22.6x forward earnings were to hold until Wednesday — when the Fed is expected to deliver a quarter-point reduction — it would mark the highest multiple coinciding with a rate cut, in Bloomberg data going back to 1990.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.1860
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3652
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 146.50 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $116,836.23
* Ether fell 0.5% to $4,491.29
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.03%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.64%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.51%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% to $64.58 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,689.78 an ounce

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
If my mind can conceive it, if my heart can believe it , then I can achieve it. –Muhammad Ali, 1942-2016.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

September 15, 1776: British troops capture Lower Manhattan after landing at what is now Kips Bay on the East River.
September 15, 1940:Battle of Britain.
September 15, 1971: Greenpeace founded.
The first Costco Warehouse opens in 1983 on Fourth Avenue South in Seattle. The first store is a warehouse with a hot dog stand in front. The warehouse concept is pioneered by Price Club in San Diego in 1976; Costco and Price Club merge in 1993. At first, only small businesses can buy at Costco from about 4,000 items at 8 to 9% over wholesale prices. Later, Costco expands to include retail customers. The company’s headquarters is in Issaquah. (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)
September 15, 2008: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy protection – the largest in U.S. history. Go to article.

Francois de la Rochefoucauld, writer, b.1613.
James Fenimore Cooper, author, b. 1789.
Agatha Christie, author, b. 1890.

The wildcard of the NYC mayoral race
He wears a red beret everywhere and once had 17 cats. Meet New York mayoral candidate Curtis Silwa.

Anime movie breaks 26-year box office record
“Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle” set a record for the biggest opening weekend domestic gross for an anime movie, hauling in an estimated $70 million.
Rookie hits longest MLB home run in more than two years
Athletics rookie Nick Kurtz hit it out of the park with a 493-foot grand slam homer, the longest in Major League Baseball for more than two years.

Terence ‘Bud’ Crawford makes history with victory over Canelo Alvarez
Terence Crawford became the first male boxer to capture three unified division titles when he defeated Canelo Alvarez by unanimous decision on Saturday.

Having difficult talks with your son should happen sooner than you might think, expert says
Your boys are listening. Christopher Pepper, coauthor of “Talk to Your Boys,” explains how parents can approach challenging topics with their sons.

10.61: That’s how many seconds it took American sprinter Melissa Jefferson-Wooden to finish the women’s 100 meters at Saturday’s World Athletics Championships. It is the fourth fastest time in history.

Astronomers accidentally use rare ‘double zoom’ technique to view black hole’s corona in unprecedented detail

For the first time, astronomers have directly measured a solar-system-size corona around a distant supermassive black hole, thanks to a rare cosmic alignment. Read More.

New ‘quasi-moon’ discovered in Earth orbit may have been hiding there for decades

A near-Earth asteroid lurked undetected for decades until a telescope in Hawaii spotted it earlier this year. It may be Earth’s newest quasi-moon. Read More.

‘Almost like science fiction’: European ant is the first known animal to clone members of another species

A species of ant found scurrying across southern Europe is the first animal found that clones males of another species. Read More.

Scientists develop ‘full-spectrum’ 6G chip that could transfer data at 100 gigabits per second — 10,000 times faster than 5G

Researchers have developed a 6G chip that uses a dual electro-photonic approach to send signals across nine radio-frequency bands. Read More.

350-year-old mummified head from Bolivia isn’t what it seems

A mummified skull from Bolivia was long thought to be of an Inca man, but a new study finds it had a different history. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dorset, UK
Almost Synchro are a Bristol-based open water synchronised swimming team united by a passion for outdoor swimming and performing together
Photograph: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

Pennsylvania, US
The Lantern Lights festival at Pocono Raceway
Photograph: Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu/Getty Images

West Sussex, UK
A flock of sheep take to the track to honour the former racing driver and farmer Jim Clark during a parade during the second day of the Goodwood Revival at Goodwood Motor Circuit. The three-day event, which is staged entirely in period theme, features vintage campervans, a best dressed contest judged by Dita Von Teese, a VE Day 80th anniversary street party and races run entirely on sustainable fuel
Photograph: Kieran Cleeves Media Assignments/PA
Market Closes for September 15^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45883.45	+49.23
		+0.11%
S&P 500	6615.28	+30.99
		+0.47%
NASDAQ	22348.75	+207.65
		+0.94%
TSX	29431.02	+147.20
		+0.50%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44768.12	+395.62
		+0.89%
HANG SENG	26446.56	+58.40
		+0.22%
SENSEX	81785.74	-118.96
		-0.15%
FTSE 100*	9277.03	-6.26
		-0.07%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.167	3.188
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.599	3.618
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0375	4.0643
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6602	4.6805

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7257	0.7223
US $	1.3779	1.3844

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6170	0.6207
US $	1.1763	0.8501

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3651.10	3629.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.30	62.69

MARKET COMMENTARY:
On this day in 1997, the web domain google.com was registered. The Stanford University coders behind the search engine, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, had initially called their project Backrub.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 29,431.02 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.6%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 14.8%.
Today, 116 of 210 shares rose, while 89 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.6%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 32.4% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.4% in the past 5 days and rose 5.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 18.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.68t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.86% compared with 9.50% in the previous session and the average of 9.73% over the past month

Index Points
Energy | 46.6576| 1.0| 22/17
Financials | 42.7692| 0.5| 16/8
Information Technology | 40.1026| 1.3| 6/3
Materials | 17.5601| 0.4| 28/18
Industrials | 15.1428| 0.4| 19/10
Consumer Discretionary | 6.9634| 0.7| 6/2
Utilities | 0.0058| 0.0| 7/7
Health Care | -0.1898| -0.3| 2/1
Real Estate | -1.5292| -0.3| 8/10
Communication Services | -6.8410| -1.1| 1/4
Consumer Staples | -13.4496| -1.3| 1/9
Shopify | 44.1600| 2.6| -1.2| 33.1
Cameco | 32.6900| 9.9| 33.8| 60.8
Brookfield Corp | 17.7600| 1.9| -31.4| 15.7
Enbridge | -6.1020| -0.6| -13.7| 10.8
Constellation Software | -12.5500| -2.1| 27.4| -3.2
(MT Newswires)
A late rally extended gains on the Toronto Stock Exchange and with that brought about a fresh record close Monday as more market watchers believe not only will the Bank of Canada cut its key benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, but will follow that up with another in October, even as National Bank cited tomorrow inflation report as “a source of uncertainty”.
The TSX added the best part of 60 points over the last 30 minutes of trade to finish up 147.20 points or 0.5% at 29,431.02, with most sectors higher, led by Base Metals up near 1.5%.
This was the 14th record in the last 17 sessions for the index.
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high midafternoon on Monday, rising above US$2,700 as traders await an expected U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate cut later this week.
Gold for December delivery was up US$33.60 to US$3,720.00 per ounce, edging lower from Friday’s record close.
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex) was up 1% while Brent Crude (ICE) was up 0.75%.
The Wall Street Journal noted Nymex natural gas settled up 3.5% at US$3.043/mmBtu as the front month continues to waver around the $3 level.
After holding steady for the last three meetings, the Bank of Canada is set to lower the overnight target by 25 bps to 2.5% on Wednesday.
National Bank in a preview noted OIS markets judge a cut to be likely with about 90% implied easing odds.
National said an inflation report just over 24 hours before the decision is a source of uncertainty, but it doesn’t expect it to derail a cut.
Policymakers, National Bank noted, can cite an accumulation of weak data, most prominently jobs data but also GDP, in justifying a cut.
It said there may be an acknowledgement that resilience looks to be fading.
But at the same time, National added, the BoC is likely to reiterate that there are still some ongoing pressures on underlying inflation which is “assessed to be running around 2.5%”.
Assuming the BoC cuts, a follow-on move in October should be viewed as more likely than not, according to National Bank.
As far as guidance is concerned, National noted, the rate statement may contain a copy-paste from July by reiterating that “there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate”.
However, it said, the BoC will seek to retain optionality by stating that they’ll be weighing upside inflation pressures from tariffs/the reconfiguration of trade against downside inflation pressures from a weaker economy.
National Bank currently expects the BoC to cut again in October.
National noted the BoC won’t publish a new MPR, so we’ll have to wait until October for new projections.
At this point, National sees growth marginally weaker than the BoC expected in July, while headline inflation is tracking a bit firmer.
Despite CORRA setting near 5 bps above target for the last two weeks, National Bank doesn’t expect an additional cut in the deposit rate.
It noted the last 5 bp deposit rate cut came after months of CORRA pressure.
“The lack of overnight repo operations recently suggests there’s little concern, at least for now.
As for balance sheet policy, we are looking for an announcement that T-bill purchases will start soon, in line with earlier guidance.”
Ahead of Tuesday’s inflation report — which is not seen derailing Wednesday’s rate cut — the Scotiabank duo of Rene Lalonde, Director, Modelling and Forecasting and Farah Omran, Senior Economist, noted the post-pandemic surge in inflation raised some questions as to which measure of core inflation was the best indicator of future total inflation, the BoC’s official target.
At that time Scotia found that CPI excluding food, energy and the effect of indirect taxes (CPIXFET) outperformed other measures while having the added benefit of being more intuitive, and easier to communicate to markets and households.
Now, with inflation largely back within the BoC range, a Scotia team has repeated this exercise, comparing CPI-trim, CPI-median, and CPIXFET.
Once again, CPIXFET proves to be the most accurate predictor of headline inflation, Lalonde and Omran said.
Price: 29431.02, Change: +147.20, Percent Change: +0.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street notched fresh highs amid bets that a Federal Reserve rate cut Wednesday is a sure thing, with traders waiting to see whether officials will validate expectations for a series of reductions into next year.
A $14 trillion record-breaking run in US equities is heading for an inflection point, with the first rate cut since Donald Trump became president likely to seize the spotlight in a week that will determine policy settings for half of the world’s 10 most-traded currencies.
Bets that Fed easing will keep powering Corporate America put the S&P 500 above 6,600.
The Nasdaq 100 saw its longest advance since 2023.
A jump in Tesla Inc. erased its 2025 drop as Elon Musk’s $1 billion purchase.
Alphabet Inc. hit $3 trillion.
Also aiding sentiment was a framework deal on keeping TikTok running in the US, with Trump saying he’d talk to China’s Xi Jinping Friday.
Treasuries rose, with two-year yields hovering near the lowest since last September.
The dollar slid.
Signs of labor-market weakening and no major inflation surprises have sealed the deal for what money markets project will be a quarter-point Fed cut in September.
The big question, though, will be the pace of easing after that, with prices stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target.
“Now the discussion will turn to how aggressively the Fed will act,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“The Fed may remind everyone that it may be focused on jobs now, but it hasn’t forgotten about the other half of its mandate.”
US policymakers on Wednesday will also release their quarterly update of economic and rate forecasts — known as the dot plot — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his regular post-decision press conference.
In June, Fed officials were narrowly in favor of two quarter-point cuts in 2025.
What traders will really hang on to is the tone of Powell’s press conference and the “dot plot” projections, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“I’ll be watching how the market reacts to any mention of inflation being ‘well anchored’ or the labor market ‘cooling more than expected,” he said.
“That sort of language would be music to the ears of dollar bears.
On the flip side, a cautious Fed that hints at a ‘wait and see’ approach might stall the rally, at least temporarily.”
Before that, Razaqzada noted that there’s also a bit of data to keep things lively before and after the decision.
Tuesday’s retail sales could either reinforce the soft-landing narrative or raise fresh concerns about consumer demand, he said.
In a nod to data that suggests US-based firms are growing reluctant to hire, the Fed will cut by 25 basis points this week, according to Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group.
But to the central bank’s hawks, monetary policy doesn’t present as being tight, he noted.
“And so Jay Powell will offer balance. He’ll highlight again the downside risk to employment growth, but refrain from signaling a (long) string of cuts after September,” Wizman said.
Lon Erickson at Thornburg Investment Management says he doesn’t think we’re ready for another 50 basis-point cut this year like the Fed did when the cutting process first began.
“Considering what we’ve seen with inflation, which came in a bit higher than expected, they’ll continue to be cautious,” he said.
“The wild card remains inflation.
The key question is how that plays out over the rest of the year and whether we end up in the dreaded stagflation-type environment, which would put the Fed in a tough spot.”
Erickson says he’s leaning more towards expecting a rate cut at each of the remaining meetings this year amid a softening labor market.
“Near-term risk is centered on the tension between lagging, weak labor data and the Fed’s response that may not meet the markets’ ‘need for speed,’” Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said.
Still, he recommended buying any dips, and his most bullish scenario sees the S&P 500 climbing to 7,200 points by mid-2026.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said that while the stock market has disregarded weak indicators to post multiple record highs, this trend could reverse once the Fed makes its first cut of 2025.
“Once the easing resumes, equities could turn more cautious for a bit, and price in some more downside risk, in effect repricing the current, potentially complacent, stance,” a team led by Mislav Matejka wrote. 
Bullish traders may have history on their side: The S&P 500 has been 15% higher, on average, a year after cuts resumed following a pause of six months or more, data from Ned Davis Research going back to the 1970s show.
That compares to a 12% gain in the same period after the first cut of an ordinary cycle.
“With the weakening labor market and inflation seemingly under control, we expect a rate cut starting this week and totaling 100 basis points over the next four meetings through January 2026,” said Brian Buetel at UBS Wealth Management.
“The stock market’s recent gains are being driven by strong earnings momentum and declining rates.”
Buetel says he expects modest upside between now and the end of the year, and the bull market continuing to gain steam into 2026, as investors have plenty of earnings momentum runway to work with.
Measures of projected volatility look dormant, and analysts’ profit views for the first half of 2026 are climbing back toward where they stood at the beginning of the year.
Since bottoming in July 2026 earnings estimate for the S&P 500 have climbed in each of the past nine weeks.
At $295 per share, they’re in line with where they stood in late April, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaking of earnings, President Trump again called for an end to quarterly earnings reports, tapping into a long-running fault line in American capitalism over how much information should be disclosed by public companies.
Trump is pushing for a six-month reporting schedule as opposed to the current every three-months format.
Ending quarterly results in favor of a six-month reporting schedule would “save money and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies,” Trump said.
“The lack of transparency will make it harder for investors, but it will also free up company managements to focus on their businesses on a longer-term basis,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
Lost in the shuffle a bit is Friday’s $5 trillion triple- witching expiration, with market watchers downplaying its impact.
Looking back over 35 years reveals that intraday swings in the S&P 500 on expiry weeks tend to be marginally higher than the following week, which challenges the oft touted “free to move” theory.  

Corporate Highlights:
* China ruled that Nvidia Corp. violated anti-monopoly laws with a high-profile 2020 deal, ratcheting up the pressure on Washington during sensitive trade negotiations.
* Google considered selling off parts of its ad tech business to resolve antitrust concerns in Europe and the US, a lawyer for the company said Monday, but a Justice Department proposal to force the sale of its advertising exchange goes much further.
* Walt Disney Co. is bringing all of its marquee comics to a new digital platform and app in partnership with Webtoon Entertainment Inc.
* Live Nation Inc.’s Ticketmaster is being probed by the US Federal Trade Commission over whether it’s done enough to keep bots from illegally reselling tickets on its platform.
* CoreWeave Inc. said its shareholder Nvidia has agreed to buy cloud services valued at $6.3 billion, part of that company’s push to speed up the adoption of artificial intelligence across the economy.
* Alaska Air Group Inc.’s adjusted third-quarter profit will be at the low end of the carrier’s previous estimate of $1 to $1.40 a share, driven down by a July technology outage and rising fuel prices.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. is introducing a program to encourage more retail investors to support the company in proxy votes with an automatic system that threatens to limit the influence of activists.
* Snap Inc. is rolling out an updated version of its operating system for augmented-reality glasses, a move that signals it’s getting closer to launching its first consumer smart glasses next year.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. is launching a closed-end fund to give US retail investors exposure to private companies.
* Kering SA, whose luxury brands include Gucci, Saint Laurent and Balenciaga, said Monday it was the victim of a data breach that was discovered in June, the latest in a string of attacks on the consumer goods sector.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Equity traders, fixated on this week’s anticipated Fed rate cut, are unlikely to be unsettled unless Tuesday’s retail sales report reveals a sharp decline.
Still, the outlook bears watching, as consumer strength has long served as a crucial pillar for both the economy and financial markets.”
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1765
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3609
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 147.39 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $115,335.51
* Ether fell 2.7% to $4,493.87
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.04%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.63%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.54%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.66%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1% to $63.32 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,680.75 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

You must expect great things of yourself before you can do them. –Michael Jordan, b. 1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

September 12, 1609: English explorer Henry Hudson sailed into the river that now bears his name. Go to article.
September 12, 1958: John Kilby tests the first integrated circuit at Texas Instruments, proving electronic components can reside on a single chip: a cornerstone of modern computing.

H.L. Mencken, critic, b. 1880.

A Super Bowl rematch
Many football fans are gearing up to watch a Super Bowl rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Here’s what you should know about Week 2 in the NFL.
The rise of instax cameras
Fujifilm’s instax camera is snowballing in popularity. But why now? And what does its success say about the future of analog experiences in a digital world?

A major milestone in astronomy
Astronomers detected, in unprecedented detail, a collision between two black holes. Their observations confirm predictions made by Albert Einstein and Stephen Hawking.

Banksy mural of judge beating protester is scrubbed from London court
The street artist’s latest mural, depicting a judge beating a protester, has been scrubbed off a London courthouse wall.

Bad Bunny says he didn’t include US in concert tour for fear of ICE raids
Puerto Rican musician Bad Bunny said in an interview that he did not include the US in his 2025-2026 concert tour because of fear that ICE agents would raid the concert venues.
Make art, not war: Filmmaker-turned-artist Ralph Ziman uses millions of hand-threaded beads to turn artifacts of war into artworks. His series “Weapons of Mass Production” recently concluded with his most ambitious work to date: an entire fighter jet.

‘New’ island emerges from melting ice in Alaska NASA’s Earth Observatory has announced that Alaska has a “brand new island” after a retreating glacier lost contact with the Prow Knob mountain landmass in Alsek Lake. Read More. Tiny cryogenic device cuts quantum computer heat emissions by 10,000 times — and it could be launched in 2026 Scientists invent a new device that aims to solve thermal interference from electronic components — one of the biggest barriers to commercial quantum computing. Read More. Interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS could be turning bright green, surprising new photos reveal New photos captured during the recent “blood moon” total lunar eclipse show that the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS may be turning green as it gets closer to the sun. Read More. New reconstructions show piercing eyes of men who lived 2,500 years ago in mysterious Indian civilization The vivid reconstructions are based on two skulls found in urns excavated in 2021 at a burial ground in southern India. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Cered, Hungary
An aerial view, taken with a drone, of morning fog
Photograph: Péter Komka/EPA

Drøbak, Norway
The US aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford on its way into the Oslofjord. The ship is the world’s largest warship
Photograph: Lise Åserud/NTB/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Guijuelo, Spain
The peloton passing through a landscape during the La Vuelta – 80th Tour of Spain 2025, Stage 19 a 161.9km stage from Rueda to Guijuelo
Photograph: Dario Belingheri/Getty Images
Market Closes for September 12^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45834.22	-273.78
		-0.59%
S&P 500	6584.29	-3.18
		-0.05%
NASDAQ	22141.10	+98.03
		+0.44%
TSX	29283.82	-124.07
		-0.42%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44768.12	+395.62
		+0.89%
HANG SENG	26388.16	+301.84
		+1.16%
SENSEX	81904.70	+355.97
		+0.44%
FTSE 100*	9283.29	-14.29
		-0.15%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.188	3.161
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.618	3.604
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0643	4.0206
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6805	4.6535

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7223	0.7225
US $	1.3844	1.3840

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6249	0.6154
US $	1.1734	0.8524

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3629.55	3650.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.69	62.37

Market Commentary:
When I think of the progress we have made during my lifetime in improving the quality of life and when I extrapolate that progress into the future,
I cannot help being optimistic. –Sir John Templeman, 1912-2008.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 29,283.82 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on Aug.
25 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.8%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.1%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest drop, falling 4.5%.
Today, 108 of 210 shares fell, while 96 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 18%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.8%
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 31.7% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 18.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.7t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 9.50% compared with 9.49% in the previous session and the average of 9.77% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | -43.8952| -0.5| 8/16
Information Technology | -29.3598| -1.0| 5/5
Industrials | -26.2117| -0.8| 4/23
Materials | -16.2968| -0.4| 19/26
Consumer Discretionary | -8.9093| -0.9| 2/7
Consumer Staples | -6.4267| -0.6| 2/8
Real Estate | -0.9997| -0.2| 12/6
Communication Services | -0.8354| -0.1| 2/2
Health Care | 0.3412| 0.5| 3/0
Energy | 4.1655| 0.1| 28/12
Utilities | 4.3508| 0.4| 11/3
Shopify | -18.4100| -1.1| -1.5| 29.7
RBC | -11.7800| -0.6| 6.7| 15.2
BNS | -9.8500| -1.3| -8.8| 13.7
Manulife Financial | 2.1570| 0.4| -74.9| 0.0
TC Energy | 2.8370| 0.5| -67.2| 8.2
Enbridge | 7.3230| 0.7| -60.5| 11.4
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Friday failed for only the third time in the last 16 sessions to close at record highs, with investors taking profits after recent massive gains for the market while adjusting their portfolios ahead of a big week ahead on interest rates across North America.
Even with elevated commodity prices, the resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 124.07 points, or 0.4%, to 29,283.82.
Going into today’s trade, the index was up 2.95% month to date, and near 19% year to date.
Most sectors were higher, with the Battery Metals Index up 2.05%.
On the other side, Info Tech, Industrials and Financials all lost less than 0.8% each.
In his weekly ‘Talking Points’ column, BMO Capital Markets chief economist Doug Porter said “the sustained upswing in equities is especially remarkable given that we are now knee-deep in the most challenging month of the year for stocks”.
He added: “The prospect of lower rates is providing a powerful tailwind, with investors apparently comfortable in the view that growth will downturn.”
On rates, Porter noted that after a lengthy spell on the sidelines, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada are expected to resume cutting rates at next Wednesday’s decisions.
Porter said: “A suddenly darker employment picture is the primary driver for both, overriding somewhat sticky core inflation, and looking past rollicking equity markets.
The Fed’s decision is widely viewed as more of a slam-dunk, as the debate has gravitated from “if” to “how much”, with some small chance of a repeat of last September’s 50 bp (basis point) slice.
The Bank’s (Bank of Canada) decision is a little less clear-cut, with the added complication of the CPI report landing just one day earlier.
Still, in both cases, we expect a low-drama 25 bp trim, but with plenty of questions on what comes next.”
On the Bank of Canada’s decision specifically, Porter said it is not a foregone conclusion, although most believe the pronounced weakness in employment in recent months and the heavy drop in Q2 GDP have weighted the scales to a 25 bp cut next week.
Porter noted there was really no major new news on the domestic front for the BoC to chew on this week.
He said: “While the unveiling of five new “nation-building projects” was intriguing, the reality is that these were all already on the books and unlikely to move the macro needle.”
Porter noted next week’s calendar is much heavier, as the BoC will get a raft of new info in the days prior to the rate decision, highlighted by Tuesday’s CPI, but also including home sales and starts for August.
Porter noted that while the BoC’s preferred measures of core inflation have been stuck around 3% for months now, and likely stayed there in August, the official commentary suggests underlying inflation is ‘around 2.5%.
He said this may be “a nod to the old tried-and-true” core CPI of ex food and energy and indirect taxes, which is at precisely 2.5% (vs. 3.1% stateside).
Porter added: “Besides their own dedicated measures of core running a bit hot, there’s the added frustration of grocery prices chugging along at 3.4% y/y and now even gasoline prices are working against them.
In recent days, pump prices have somehow climbed above year-ago levels nationally, even with the consumer carbon tax having been axed and world oil prices down about 10% y/y.
While the Bank typically looks past swings in gasoline, it’s no help to inflation expectations with pump prices suddenly flaring for no obvious reason.”
Despite that “curveball”, Porter expects the BoC to trim rates and keep the door open for more.
BMO’s call stands at a total of three cuts, taking the overnight rate down to 2.0%.
Porter said the “stickiness” of core CPI is the strongest argument against a more aggressive rate-cut campaign and may even prompt the BoC to move in staggered steps.
“But bigger picture,” he added, “with the jobless rate pushing above 7% and the housing market listing sideways, there’s a good case for the Bank to bring rates to the low end of their neutral range (officially 2.25%-to-3.25%), or even a bit below.
True, monetary policy can’t ‘fix’ the trade war, but it can set the conditions for the rest of the economy to prosper.”
In cutting rates 25 basis points on September 17, the BoC won’t endorse any particular rate path, according to Royce Mendes, Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins.
However, he said, in their “typical intentionally vague” communications style, the Governing Council is very likely to leave the door wide open to another rate reduction in October.
As a result, Desjardins sees market pricing moving to incorporate a greater chance of reaching a 2.00% policy rate.
Mendes said: “The balance of risks has shifted, and markets will likely begin thinking more about downside scenarios for both growth and inflation after hearing from a more dovish central bank.
A subdued employment outlook and benign inflation projection have been core to our Canadian rates forecast for some time.”
Of commodities, gold traded at a record high midafternoon Friday, gaining ground on rate-cut expectations despite a higher dollar.
Gold for December delivery was up $13.80 to US$3,687.0 per ounce, above the Sept. 9 record close of US$3,682.20 per ounce.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher Friday, rebounding from the prior day’s drop on oversupply worries, after a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil-export port added a fresh risk premium.
WTI crude for October delivery closed up $0.32 to settle at US$62.69 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen up $0.60 to US$66.97.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A strong week on Wall Street ended on a quiet note, with stocks holding near all-time highs and bonds falling as consumer data did little to alter bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September.
Following a relentless surge, the S&P 500 barely budged.
The IPO market kicked into high gear this week, with deals raising over $4 billion in the busiest period since 2021.
A gauge of mega caps jumped Friday, led by Tesla Inc.
Shares of vaccine makers slumped on a report health officials plan to link Covid shots to the deaths of around two dozen children.
A modest slide in Treasuries trimmed an advance that sent the market to its fourth straight up week.
The dollar saw its biggest weekly slide in about a month.
Consumer sentiment hit the lowest since May and long-term inflation expectations rose.
That follows recent data painting a picture of a slowing labor market, with investors leaning heavily in the direction of three rate cuts this year.
“The Fed is pulled in opposite directions by rising inflation on the one hand and a weak job market on the other,” said Bill Adams at Comerica Bank.
“The Fed can be expected to cut rates further in coming months; the question is how much, not if.”
Cracks in the job market will likely prompt the Fed to execute a series of rate reductions beginning next week, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The median respondent sees two cuts by year-end, but a sizable minority — more than 40% — anticipates three reductions. Deutsche Bank AG economists now see three rate reductions in 2025.
They previously expected officials led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell would cut this month and wait to ease again until December.
At Morgan Stanley, economists including Michael Gapen expect four straight rate cuts.
Beyond January, they see officials pausing to assess inflationary impacts.
Once that “noise” clears, they we anticipate further reductions in April and July.
And what about Fed guidance?
Strategists at TD Securities say that’s likely to “lean dovish” next week as a result of labor-market conditions — but not overly so given an inflation overshoot remains an important risk.
They believe the September Summary of Economic Projections will reflect this, continuing to show two cuts in 2025, while shifting data projections in a “slightly hawkish direction.”
“The market is unlikely to be surprised by the cut,” said Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“However, the likely reluctance of Chair Powell and the dots to commit to future cuts could be interpreted as less dovish.”
That could lead rates and the curve to reverse some recent momentum, they noted.
“We’re anticipating a 25 basis-point rate cut and expect that the tone of the statement, press conference, and SEP will be interpreted as net dovish,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
As Powell restarts the “normalization process,” Lyngen anticipates that the 2025 dot plot will be lowered to reflect the potential for a 25 basis-point cut at both the October and December meetings.
Financial markets are betting the Fed will still be “ahead of the curve” when it starts lowering borrowing costs, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
The strategist pointed to a rally in banks and rate- sensitive stocks as well as a drop in investment-grade credit spreads, which suggests investors are “saying the Fed can cut with credibility and is cutting into US growth re-acceleration,” he said.
Still, cash drew the bulk of inflows in the past week, bringing the four-week total to $266 billion, BofA said, citing EPFR Global data. US stocks saw outflows of $19 billion.
With the Fed poised to cut rates next week and market sentiment still far from complacent, the path of least resistance remains higher for equities in the near term, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Rate cuts would add to a growing list of tailwinds, from the stimulative budget deal and trade agreements to the earnings boost from a weaker dollar,” he said.
This week’s flood of IPO deals became a barometer for just how frothy the stock market was getting.
All offerings saw strong demand in the formal marketing process before trading began, with many selling bigger stakes than they had initially offered.
The median listing opened 31% above the offer price, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Even with September’s strong start, the IPO market is still recovering from what was seen before the pandemic.
Roughly $29 billion has been raised on US exchanges through Sept. 12, the data compiled by Bloomberg show.
That lags an average of $31.4 billion in the decade before 2020’s boom and pales in comparison to the manic years during the pandemic.

Corporate Highlights:
* The leader of Tesla Inc.’s board said no one other than Elon Musk is capable of running the company as it expands beyond electric vehicles into artificial intelligence and robotics.
* Apple Inc. delayed the launch of its new iPhone Air in mainland China, citing regulatory approval issues.
* Microsoft Corp. avoided a hefty antitrust penalty as the European Union accepted its commitments to settle a probe into the alleged illegal bundling of its Teams video-conferencing app.
* The US Federal Trade Commission is investigating whether Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google misled advertisers that place ads on their websites, according to people familiar with the matter.
* OpenAI said it’s closer to converting into a more traditional for-profit company — nearing the resolution of painful negotiations with top shareholder Microsoft and outlining terms of at least $100 billion in equity for its nonprofit arm.
* The leaders of OpenAI and Nvidia Corp. plan to pledge support for billions of dollars in UK data center investments when they head to the country next week at the same time as President Donald Trump, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* The Federal Aviation Administration said it would fine Boeing Co. $3.1 million for safety violations uncovered over a space of several months between late 2023 and early last year.
** Boeing ’s St. Louis-area defense workers will remain on strike after they rejected a third contract offer from management.
* Tylenol-maker Kenvue Inc. spoke with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a bid to keep the over-the-counter painkiller off a list of autism-causing treatments.
* Union Pacific Corp.’s CEO discussed the railroad’s proposed $72 billion acquisition of rival Norfolk Southern Corp. with Trump as the company seeks regulatory approval for the deal.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. said it has invented a new form of graphite that can increase the life of electric-vehicle batteries by as much as 30%.
* Gemini Space Station Inc. jumped in its trading debut after the cryptocurrency exchange led by the billionaire Winklevoss twins raised $425 million in a packed week for US listings.
* WisdomTree Inc. launched its first tokenized fund that gives investors exposure to private credit, marking the latest attempt by Wall Street to connect fast-growing markets with blockchain technology.
* One of Banco Sabadell SA’s largest shareholders said he won’t accept BBVA SA’s $18 billion takeover bid at the current price, putting more pressure on the prospective buyer to improve it.
* Ocado Group Plc tumbled after Kroger Co. questioned the future of their partnership, raising concerns that the major US grocer could close some existing automated warehouses to cut costs.
* SK Hynix Inc. jumped after the company announced it had completed development of HBM4, the next generation of high- bandwidth memory crucial for artificial-intelligence work.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The S&P 500 is still trading in a ‘good news’ regime, rallying on weak lagging/coincident data that accelerates Fed cuts, or on forward-looking signals pointing to brighter prospects.
Such regimes often support equities for extended periods, but they have also preceded prior market peaks.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1736
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3560
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 147.58 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2% to $116,666.12
* Ether rose 5.5% to $4,661.77
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.06%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.67%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 3.56%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.68%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $62.51 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,644.92 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
I have learned that the countless paths one traverses in one’s life are all equal. 
Oppressors and the oppressed meet at the end, and the only thing that prevails is
that life was altogether too short for both. –Don Juan as quoted by Carlos Castaneda, 1925-1998.
                                                          from The Teachings of Don Juan: A Yaqui Way of Knowledge, 1968.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: 9/11 😢
“The cloudless sky filled with coiling black smoke and a blizzard of paper—memos, photographs, stock transactions, insurance policies—which fluttered for miles on a gentle southeasterly breeze, across the East River into Brooklyn. Debris spewed onto the streets of lower Manhattan, which were already covered with bodies. Some of them had been exploded out of the building when the planes hit. A man walked out of the towers carrying someone else’s leg. Jumpers landed on several firemen, killing them instantly.
“The air pulsed with sirens as firehouses and police stations all over the city emptied, sending the rescuers, many of them to their deaths. (FBI agent) Steve Bongardt was running toward the towers, against a stream of people racing in the opposite direction. He heard the boom of the second collision. “There’s a second plane,” someone cried.” — Lawrence Wright, The Looming Tower.

“Anyway, so we went down. People were very calm, and I think everybody in the stairwell was like this determined, but also aware that—unconsciously aware that something very dangerous was happening, and remain calm because it was the best thing we had to do. They were three flows of people, the regular people like me going down, the people who were coming down from the upper floors, and who were very badly injured. No skin, no hair, just burn. And they were walking or carried down by people, helped by people. And then the third flow of people was of course those security personnel and Fire Department people. Now, those people were exhausted. In some of those eyes you could see that they knew something, that it was dangerous. While there was no panic whatsoever in the stairwell, those people were concentrated, focused on doing their job. And while I was walking down, they were going up to their death. And I was walking down to live. I exited onto the sidewalk that was on Church (Street). I turned around and looked, and I saw the World Trade Center in flames, and those flames were very, very dark orange. The smoke was very, very black against this beautiful sky, and they were big. Suddenly, darkness fell upon us with an unbelievable violence. I looked around a second time. I didn’t see the tower. Instead, I heard a sound that today, I cannot remember. It was so powerful, such a huge sound that I blocked it. It scared me to death, and I cannot bring it back up to consciousness. And when I said, darkness, what was a beautiful day became darker than night. You couldn’t see anymore. Even more striking, there was no more sound. Sound didn’t go through anymore because the air was so thick that it wasn’t vibrating anymore. So after this unbelievable sound of the building collapsing, everything in few seconds turned to be darker than night with no sound, and you couldn’t breathe. I was convinced I was dead, because it’s so big that your brain
cannot process something like this.” — Bruno Dellinger, whose office was on the 47th floor of the North Tower of The World Trade Center.

“I got up and turned on the TV, and there was just this big black hole in the World Trade Center. And there was just smoke billowing out of it. I called my sister Cathy I said, “You might wanna wake up, turn in your TV and take a look at what they’re showing.” The commentator’s saying that it’s an American Airlines plane. And I casually asked Cathy, I said, “Do you know where Betty is?” And she says, “Betty’s supposed to be flying out of Boston.” And I said, “Do you think Betty is on that plane?” We just didn’t know. So I left a phone call on her cellphone, just asking her when she’s landed or anywhere you’re on the ground, to just give us a call and tell us you’re okay. And there was no call from Betty. I called American Airlines, and it was only then that it was confirmed that Betty was on the flight. I just want to add, through your passing, Betty, our family’s gotten very very close. Dad, who’s quite stoic, doesn’t really say a whole lot, man of the family, one day told us that he cries himself to sleep. Even to this day, he just keeps staying up watching TV, hoping somehow that you’ll reappear. And we’re all still waiting for that phone call from you to tell us that you’re okay. We just miss you a whole lot.” — Harry Ong Jr., transcript from the 9/11 Memorial Museum Oral History.

Answering machine: “Message one.”
Brian Sweeney: “Jules, this is Brian—listen, I’m on an airplane that’s been hijacked. If things don’t go well, and it’s not looking good, I just want you to know I absolutely love you, I want you to do good, go have good times, same to my parents and everybody, and I just totally love you, and I’ll see you when you get there. Bye, babe. I hope I call you.”
— 9/11 Memorial Museum, Gift of Julie Sweeney Roth

On Sept. 11, 2001, suicide hijackers crashed two airliners into the World Trade Center in New York, causing the 110-story twin towers to collapse. Another hijacked airliner hit the Pentagon and a fourth crashed in a field in Pennsylvania. Go to article.

Canada’s 2023 wildfires contributed to 87,000 early deaths worldwide, study estimates

The health impacts from Canada’s worst wildfire stretched into Europe, Asia and Africa, a new study reveals. Read More.

‘Incredibly exciting’: NASA claims it’s found the ‘clearest sign’ yet of past life on Mars

NASA scientists have found more intriguing details on speckled Martian rocks spotted by the Perseverance rover. But bringing samples back to Earth will be key. Read More.

Stephen Hawking’s long-contested black hole theory finally confirmed — as scientists ‘hear’ 2 event horizons merge into one

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PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Doochary, County Donegal, Ireland‘
Mother and lamb pause, their soft fleece set against the rugged, weatherworn landscape.’
Photograph: Marek Parandyk

New York City, US‘
Dusk along the Brooklyn waterfront in late summer.’
Photograph: Travis Antolik

Queensland, Australia
‘The summit of Mount Ngungun at sunset in the Glasshouse Mountains national park.’
Photograph: Graeme Hall
Market Closes for September 11^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	46108.00	+617.08
		+1.36%
S&P 500	6587.47	+55.43
		+0.85%
NASDAQ	22043.07	+157.01
		+0.72%
TSX	29407.89	+228.50
		+0.78%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44372.50	+534.83
		+1.22%
HANG SENG	26086.32	-113.94
		-0.43%
SENSEX	81548.73	+123.58
		+0.15%
FTSE 100*	9297.58	+72.19
		+0.78%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.161	3.175
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.604	3.623
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0206	4.0531
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.6535	4.7019

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7225	0.7211
US $	1.3840	1.3867

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6236	0.6159
US $	1.1731	0.8524

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3650.75	3649.55
Oil
WTI Crude Future	62.37	63.67

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1789, Alexander Hamilton was sworn in as the nation’s first secretary of the Treasury.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.8%, or 228.5 to 29,407.89 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1% on Aug. 22.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 142 of 210 shares rose, while 67 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
First Majestic Silver Corp. had the largest increase, rising 10.0%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 19%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 9.5%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.2%
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 32.3% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and rose 5.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 18.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.67t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.49% compared with 9.69% in the previous session and the average of 9.78% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 90.4838| 1.0| 21/3
Industrials | 54.9149| 1.6| 23/6
Materials | 45.1668| 1.0| 41/6
Information Technology | 24.8393| 0.8| 8/2
Consumer Discretionary | 10.8752| 1.2| 8/1
Real Estate | 5.7012| 1.1| 18/1
Communication Services | 3.0856| 0.5| 3/2
Consumer Staples | 0.7219| 0.1| 5/5
Health Care | -0.4791| -0.7| 1/2
Utilities | -0.7876| -0.1| 4/10
Energy | -6.0226| -0.1| 10/29
Shopify | 29.2400| 1.7| 17.9| 31.2
Brookfield Corp | 20.9800| 2.3| 17.0| 15.1
Manulife Financial | 13.6600| 2.7| -41.9| -0.5
Barrick Mining | -2.7680| -0.6| -3.5| 82.5
Suncor | -3.8660| -0.8| -56.7| 13.2
Celestica | -8.5720| -3.0| -2.5| 156.4
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday posted its thirteenth record close in the last 15 sessions, with most sectors higher and the Industrials sector prominent as National Bank noted a bull market is “very much alive now” around it given all the ‘nation building’ cash being made available by the federal government.
Even with commodity prices lower, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 228.50 points to 29,407.89.
This month alone, the TSX has posted a record close in all but one of the eight sessions since the Labour Day weekend.
Traders returned from that holiday pushing the index to a then record finish of 28,615.62 on Tuesday, Sept. 2.
In sectors, the Battery Metals Index was up 2.2%, Base Metals up 2% and Industrials up 1.5%.
There were modest losses for Energy and Health Care.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices weakened on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) again warned supply is running ahead of demand as it boosted its production forecast on new supply from OPEC+ and record output from Western Hemisphere producers.
WTI oil for October delivery closed down $1.30 to settle at US$62.37 per barrel, while November Brent oil was last seen down $1.17 to US$66.32.
Also, gold futures fell even as the dollar weakened, after a higher-than-expected rise in U.S. consumer prices failed to dent expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.
Gold for December delivery was down $8.90 to $3,673.10 per ounce, down from this week’s record high of $3,682.20.
Prime Minister Mark Carney today unveiled the first portion of the much anticipated ‘nation-building’ projects designed to scale and modernize Canadian infrastructure and provide a degree of economic stimulus amid broader economic softness exacerbated by an aggressive U.S. trade policy in recent months.
The first five projects include a liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion project and others investments across the country.
National Bank said the projects will provide a “significant incremental boost to the revenue visibility” of the engineering and construction names in its coverage.
In addition, infrastructure work across the country should also boost heavy equipment demand once funding is finalized, driving volumes for dealers including Finning (FTT.TO), Toromont (TIH.TO) and Wajax (WJX.TO).
For the bank, the bottom line is that “tailwinds are still with us”.
It noted immigration intake concerns and how that could impact infrastructure budgets have been upended by a geopolitical reality where self-sufficiency has become essential.
As a result, the bank said, we saw in early 2025 an upturn in provincial budgets going big on infrastructure.
Now, it added, the Federal government is putting additional heft behind the need and desire to undertake projects that in some cases should have been done years ago.
Nevertheless, National Bank said, “better late than never” and the engineering, construction, equipment space will continue to benefit from the capital inflows.
“Overall, it added, “our generally Outperform-skew and recent upgrade of Bird Construction (BDT.TO) shares, tactical positive positioning on Aecon (ARE.TO) and Toromont, all suggest additional upside from current levels as multiples expand, supported by an influx of capital and materially lessened proportion of pure fixed-price contracts that historically have resulted in negative (eventual) outcomes for the contracting community. We are staying long the group.”
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A relatively tame inflation reading combined with more signs of jobs cooling spurred a rally on Wall Street amid speculation the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates for the first time this year.
The highly anticipated consumer price index showed that while inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target, it’s not spinning out of control.
Alongside that report came the usually noisy jobless-claims figures, which jumped to the highest in almost four years, emboldening bets policymakers will cut rates next week in an effort to counter a rapid slowdown in the labor market.
That was enough to boost Treasuries, with the 10-year yield briefly breaching 4%. In a broad advance, all major US equity benchmarks hit all-time highs.
A measure of small caps jumped 1.8%.
In late hours, Adobe Inc. gave a solid outlook.
Gold eclipsed its inflation-adjusted peak set in 1980.
Energy shares joined oil lower.
“It’s clear that inflation is relatively calm, which gives the Fed the flexibility to focus more on stemming ongoing weakness in the labor market,” said Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital.
“We expect the Fed to cut 25 basis points next week and to follow through with another two 25 basis-point cuts this year.”
A slowing jobs market has prompted markets to price a more aggressive trajectory of policy easing.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautiously opened the door to a cut at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium last month, and recent data showed the hiring cooldown extended into August.
“Right now, inflation is a key subplot, but the labor market is still the main story,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“Today’s CPI may appear to offset yesterday’s PPI, but it wasn’t hot enough to distract the Fed from the softening jobs picture.
That translates into a rate cut next week — and, likely, more to come.”
“The claims data were arguably the bigger news,” said Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“We still expect the Fed to cut 25 bps next week, though 50 will likely be discussed.
We continue to look for 75 bps of total cuts this year.”
For the first time in a long time, CPI is being overshadowed on its release day by initial jobless claims, noted Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments.
This dynamic illustrates the Fed’s focus on the “maximum employment” half of the Fed’s dual mandate, with today’s inflation print not hot enough to derail a 25 basis-point rate cut next week, he said.
“Today’s CPI report has been trumped by the jobless claims report,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
“If anything, the jump in jobless claims will inject a bit more urgency in the Fed’s decision making, with Powell likely signaling a sequence of rate cuts is on the way.”
While there may be some murmurs within the Fed about the need for a 50 basis-point cut, an emergency-sized reduction is not required, Shah noted. Jobless claims are still quite low compared to 2021 levels, while the broader economic activity data and earnings reports do not signal the US is approaching a recessionary tipping point.
“The weaker the labor market gets, the less inflation matters,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“It’s a balancing act, and the scales are tipping more toward full employment
versus price stability.
That’s especially true after this week’s big downward revisions of the annual employment and last week’s poor non-farm payrolls report.”
While Fed officials are widely expected to cut interest rates next week after a series of weak employment data, firm inflation — if sustained — may complicate the path for additional reductions at subsequent meetings.
To Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, it’s surprising to see how quickly the narrative has shifted.
Whereas before last week’s jobs report the question was whether or not there would be a cut in September, now traders are speculating how many cuts we will see following the first reduction.
“The Fed’s path is clear in the short run, but over the medium term, the fact that core inflation is running quite a bit higher on a month-over-month basis is going to complicate matters,” he said.
The core consumer price index, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.3% from July. When incorporating those components, the overall CPI rose 0.4%, the most since the start of the year.
Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000 in the week ended Sept. 6, the highest since October 2021.
“The labor market is cracking; however, the inflation data are a reminder that a large upfront move is unlikely,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
“The Fed is only likely to deliver a 25bp move.
That is what I think the Fed will do, not what I think they should do.”
At Bankrate, Stephen Kates says concerns over “stagflation” are likely to intensify as the Fed weighs its next move.
“The Fed’s dual mandate of stable prices and full employment remains firmly at odds, limiting their policy flexibility in 2025.
Even if the committee decides to cut rates, it will likely reflect a surrender to economic weakness rather than a clear win over inflation,” he noted.
“Upside surprises on both US inflation and firings have stagflationary undertones,” said Don Rissmiller at Strategas.
“But neither trend looks entrenched yet here.”
To John Kerschner at Janus Henderson Investors, the Fed has now clearly painted itself into a corner.
“Chair Powell is vowing to fight the ever-obvious slowdown in the labor market with rate cuts, while at the same time ignoring the other half of its dual mandate – stable prices, or more specifically, 2% inflation,” Kerschner said.
“We do not believe that the 2% target will be reached for at least several more years barring a recession, which, while always possible with external shocks, is not even close to our baseline forecast.”
For now, policymakers appear to be more concerned about the near-term impact of not easing, signaling that the risk to the labor economy – and overall economic momentum – presents the greater near-term risk, according to Jim Baird at Plante Moran
Financial Advisors.
“It’s that perception that is expected to drive the Fed to trim its policy rate next week. The bigger question is ‘what next?’ Jay Powell’s press conference and the release of updated FOMC projections should go a long way toward providing an answer,” he said.
Bond investors are also interested in whether a decision to cut rates next week is unanimous.
In July, two Fed governors — Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman — dissented the decision to keep rates unchanged in favor of lowering them, and Waller has since said he favors “multiple cuts” in the coming months.
While Thursday’s economic data had little impact on market- implied expectations for next week’s Fed decision, traders priced in a steeper downward path for the federal funds rate in subsequent months.
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the latest inflation data support a Fed outlook for three successive cuts in September, October and December to recalibrate rates in a timely manner back down to roughly spot neutral by the end of the year.
That should also help some Fed officials who have been on the fence to signal this in their submission for the Summary of Economic Projections.
“Overall, we think the inflation trajectory is still moderately higher for a time, but the intermediate-term trend in inflation is generally moderating, especially in key areas such as services and shelter,” said Rick Rieder at BlackRock.
“We believe that the Federal Reserve’s forward focus (maybe for the next few years) is likely to be achieving maximum employment – even if the economy does well in aggregate.”
‘Not an Aggressive Pivot’
Rieder says his preference is still owning duration in the front-to-belly of the yield curve, as correlations and fixed income’s hedge effectiveness have improved at the margins here.
While the back end of the curve has been less reliable, and at times more erratic, at this point some exposure to the longer end makes sense as rates decline, he added.
“The Fed may still cut, but this data argues for a gradual path, not an aggressive pivot,” said Gina Bolvin at Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
“For investors, it’s about staying focused on long-term fundamentals, not short-term noise.
The AI optimism may continue to drown out the inflation noise and equity investors will continue to be rewarded long term.”
Veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni raised his year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 6,800 from a previous target of 6,600 as his base case, while assigning a 25% probability that the US stock benchmark could experience a “melt up” to 7,000 by 2025’s close. The gauge finished at 6,587.47 on Thursday.
“If the Fed lowers the federal funds rate on September 17 and signals more rate cuts ahead, we will increase our odds of a melt up and decrease our odds of a correction,” he wrote in a note to clients.

Corporate Highlights:
* Adobe Inc. gave a strong quarterly revenue outlook, suggesting that the software maker is seeing a payoff from its investment in AI features.
* Paramount Skydance Corp., the Hollywood studio taken over in August by independent filmmaker David Ellison, is preparing a bid for rival Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., according to people with knowledge of the matter
* Boeing Co. said it’s falling behind schedule to get its 777X aircraft certified with regulators next year, risking another delay on a program that’s already six years late.
* The Trump administration and Nvidia Corp. “settled on 15%” commission on the company’s H20 chip sales to China, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC.
* Micron Technology Inc. climbed as analysts touted the chipmaker’s growth potential in the data center market, where artificial-intelligence services have stoked demand.
* The Federal Trade Commission ordered Alphabet Inc.’s Google, OpenAI Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and four other makers of artificial intelligence chatbots to turn over information about the impacts of their technologies on kids.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc. said they are dramatically expanding their premium offerings, underscoring the challenges US carriers face filling economy- class cabins after a plunge in demand earlier in the year.
* Kroger Co. raised its full-year sales forecast on food spending that’s remained stable even as consumers seek out bargains.
* Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. received their first buy recommendation from Wall Street on Thursday, as Deutsche Bank said the stocks’ dizzying rally can go further on expectations the mortgage giants will possibly be released from government control in the near future.
* Citigroup Inc.’s chief executive officer said merger activity is rebounding as US companies gain confidence from clearer policy signals, with a recession in the world’s largest economy looking unlikely.
* Bank of New York Mellon Corp. said it’s teamed up with Carnegie Mellon University to advance research into AI, including the use of the technology in applications that power financial services.
* Centene Corp. jumped as the insurer gave upbeat views of its Medicare quality ratings and costs in its Medicaid business, positive signs for the company’s turnaround.
* Opendoor Technologies Inc. surged 80% after announcing the return of its co-founders to the board and a new chief executive officer.
* Oxford Industries Inc., the owner of the Tommy Bahama apparel brand, maintained its annual earnings outlook, despite anticipating a higher tariff hit. In addition, analysts were encouraged by quarter-to-date comparable sales commentary.
* Shares of Figure Technology Solutions Inc. closed 24% above their IPO price after a listing raising $787.5 million, as the blockchain-based credit company joined a cohort of crypto firms in embracing public markets.
* LB Pharmaceuticals Inc. shares closed 15% higher in their trading debut after the biotech raised $285 million in an upsized initial public offering.
* Indian software services giant Infosys Ltd. will buy back as much as 180 billion Indian rupees ($2 billion) worth of shares in an effort to return cash to investors amid a stock-price decline.
* Iberdrola SA agreed to buy an additional 30% stake in Brazilian power distributor Neoenergia SA for about 12 billion reais ($2.2 billion) as it looks to increase investments in electricity networks.
* Novo Nordisk A/S’s new chief executive officer is calling workers back to the office as the Ozempic maker struggles to catch up with Eli Lilly & Co. in the hyper-competitive obesity market.
* Discovery Ltd. plans to expand the roll out of its new artificial intelligence tool — already in use in South Africa and the UK — to clients across its Vitality Network, including in Europe and North America, as it seeks to double its operating income by 2029.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1737
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3578
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 147.17 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $114,460.79
* Ether rose 2.1% to $4,423.1
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.02%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.66%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.61%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.54%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.2% to $62.25 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,637.02 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Sorrow was like the wind.  It came in gusts. –Marjorie Kinnan Rawlings, 1896-1953.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

On this day in 1711, the South Sea Co. was chartered in London to trade with Latin America, sell annuities and manage the public debt. It became the heart of the greatest speculative mania Britain had ever seen.
September 10, 1846: Elias Howe is granted a patent for the sewing machine, revolutionizing garment production with a practical lock-stitch mechanism.
September 10, 1919: Nearly a year after the end of World War I, General Pershing is welcomed home with a parade down Fifth Avenue, NYC, from 107^th St. to Washington Square.
September 10, 1948: American-born Mildred Gillars, the wartime radio broadcaster known as “Axis Sally,” was indicted in Washington, D.C., for treason. Go to article.

Arnold Palmer, golfer, b. 1929.
Stephen J. Gould, biologist, b.1941.

Oliver North marries Fawn Hall, his document-shredding secretary at the center of Iran-Contra scandal
Two key figures in the Iran-Contra affair quietly married last month, nearly 40 years after the scandal rocked US politics and President Ronald Reagan’s administration.
Everything Apple announced at its big event
Apple announced the iPhone Air, iPhone 17 and new wearables during its annual hardware event on Tuesday. Check out the product upgrades here.

This photographer has been sneaking into fashion shows for a decade
Fashion and rebellion — what a fun combo. Read about a man who has snuck into prestigious events for nearly a decade. 

Building a modern metropolis using a centuries-old technique
Bamboo scaffolding has become synonymous with Hong Kong’s skyline, and it won’t be going anywhere anytime soon.

Marijuana may cause chromosomal defects in human egg cells
Higher levels of THC may cause chromosomal malformations in human eggs that may lead to infertility and miscarriages, a new study found.

Scientists are finally learning what’s inside mysterious ‘halo’ barrels submerged off Los Angeles

At first thought to hold the pesticide DDT, some mysterious barrels dumped in the deep sea near Los Angeles actually contain caustic alkaline waste that stops most life from living nearby. Read More.

NASA rover spots bizarre ‘turtle’ hiding among ancient rocks on Mars

NASA’s Perseverance rover has photographed a peculiar rock formation that looks eerily like a turtle poking its head out from its protective shell. Read More.

Scientists create first-ever visible time crystals using light — and they could one day appear on $100 bills

The visible patterns produced by the time crystals could be used for data storage and anti-counterfeiting designs. Read More.

Microsoft’s new light-based computer is inspired by 80-year-old technology — it could make AI 100 times more efficient

Microsoft’s latest computing system uses micro-LEDs and camera sensors to perform calculations. Read More.

‘We have basically destroyed what capacity we had to respond to a pandemic,’ says leading epidemiologist Michael Osterholm

Live Science spoke with leading epidemiologist Michael Osterholm about his new book, “The Big One,” which discusses the next pandemic and how to mitigate its harm. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dunbar, Scotland
Laura van der Heijden, a cellist and artist in-residence at this year’s Lammermuir festival, performs in a rock arch near Dunbar. The classical music festival brings together musicians from around the world to play in beautiful locations across East Lothian
Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

Hyderabad, India
‘Water overflowing from a rooftop tank.’
Photograph: Dhruv Pulipaka

​​​​​​​Patagonia, Chile
‘Patagonia has many dramatic mountains, especially the Torres del Paine. Lago Gray is a glacial meltwater lake with a shingle bar that you can walk across to admire the scenery.’
Photograph: Philip Robins
Market Closes for September 10^th, 2025

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	45490.92	-220.42
		-0.48%
S&P 500	6532.04	+19.43
		+0.30%
NASDAQ	21886.06	+6.57
		+0.03%
TSX	29179.39	+116.38
		+0.40%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	44057.97	+220.30
		+0.50%
HANG SENG	26200.26	+262.13
		+1.01%
SENSEX	81425.15	+323.83
		+0.40%
FTSE 100*	9225.39	-17.14
		-0.19%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.175	3.229
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.623	3.677
U.S. 10 Year Bond	4.0531	4.0875
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.7019	4.7311

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7211	0.7222
US $	1.3867	1.3846

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.6225	0.6163
US $	1.1700	0.8547

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	3649.55	3632.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	63.67	62.63

MARKET COMMENTARY:
The two most powerful warriors are patience and time. -Leo Tolstoy, 1828-1910.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 116.38 to 29,179.39 in Toronto.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 4 of 11 sectors gained; 131 of 210 shares rose, while 77 fell.
Suncor Energy Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.1%.
Iamgold Corp. had the largest increase, rising 9.1%.

Insights
* This year, the index rose 18%, heading for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 8.6%
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 20% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 31.3% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.5% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 18.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.5% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.65t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 9.69% compared with 9.71% in the previous session and the average of 9.79% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | 70.1611| 1.6| 38/8
Energy | 59.3815| 1.3| 33/7
Financials | 35.5087| 0.4| 15/8
Utilities | 1.8998| 0.2| 8/6
Health Care | -0.2385| -0.3| 1/2
Consumer Discretionary | -0.3079| 0.0| 4/5
Real Estate | -2.0339| -0.4| 7/12
Consumer Staples | -3.1967| -0.3| 3/7
Industrials | -6.4098| -0.2| 17/12
Communication Services | -7.8737| -1.2| 2/3
Information Technology | -30.5030| -1.0| 3/7
Suncor | 15.2100| 3.1| 6.3| 14.1
Brookfield Corp | 12.3400| 1.3| -13.7| 12.6
Celestica | 10.1800| 3.7| 13.5| 164.4
Thomson Reuters | -6.6580| -2.9| -20.7| 2.4
Shopify | -13.7200| -0.8| 6.6| 28.9
Constellation | Software | -22.0900| -3.5| -8.1| -0.5
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday posted its 12th record close in the last 14 sessions, even as Rosenberg Research is among those still not ruling out the chances of a recession in North America.
Buoyed by high commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 116.38 points, or 0.4%, to 29,179.39.
The TSX went into today’s session up about 17.5% year to date, and 1.75% month to date.
Most sectors were higher, led by Energy up 1.9% and Base Metals up 1.2%.
No sector was down by as much as 0.7%.
Reflecting the sector gainers, in commodities gold traded at a record high for a third-straight day midafternoon on Wednesday, edging up after a report showed U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in August, clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week. Gold for December delivery was up $1.90 to US$3.384.10 per ounce, rising off Tuesday’s record close.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose on heightened geopolitical tensions, despite signs supply is climbing above demand and U.S. inventory data showing another build.
WTI crude oil for October delivery closed up $1.04 to settle at $63.67 per barrel, while November Brent crude was last seen up $1.16 to $67.55.
In stock news, Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO, CVE) does not plan to raise its bid for oil-sands producer MEG Energy (MEG.TO), despite a higher offer from Strathcona Resources (SCR.TO), chief executive Jon McKenzie told Bloomberg News on Wednesday.
“We are in a world where we think we’ve got the only viable bid going forward,” McKenzie said in an interview, according to the report.
Reuters noted the takeover saga began in May when Strathcona launched a C$5.93 billion hostile bid for MEG Energy.
Cenovus countered this with a cash-and-shares agreement in August.
Since then, Strathcona has raised its stake in MEG to 14.2%, aiming to vote against the deal, and on Monday sweetened its original offer.
Strathcona’s revised offer values MEG at C$30.86 per share, compared with Cenovus’ nearly C$28.00 bid.
Meanwhile, the head of Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM.TO, WPM) says development of four new projects this year sets the company up well as gold prices continue to skyrocket towards US$4,000 an ounce.
Randy Smallwood, Wheaton’s chief executive said in a BNN Bloomberg interview on Tuesday afternoon a 10% increase in gold prices could lead to a 14-15% bump
in cash flow. BNN noted that can make it an attractive option for investors to capitalize on rising gold prices. “I don’t think we could have timed it any better,” said Smallwood.
“Stronger prices here in the second half of the year with combined with new mines coming on, sets us up very well.”
Still, despite all the recent record closes for the broad stock market, a revival in mergers and acquisitions, and elevated commodity prices, veteran market watchers like David Rosenberg continue to say the “uncertainty” theme remains relevant.
He published a note to that effect today that may be of interest to Canadians who invest across North America entitled ‘The Bull Market….In Uncertainty”.
In it Rosenberg said: “Uncertainty may have come off peak levels, but whether it pertains to the overall economy, trade, fiscal, or immigration policy, the measures across the board represent anywhere from two to four standard deviation events.
As market pundits, we have trouble squaring this with razor thin credit spreads and sky high price to earnings multiples, and as such, remain defensive in our investment approach.”
According to Rosenberg, the stock market is being fueled by sentiment, leverage, and momentum.
“There is this pervasive sentiment that the business cycle has been repealed, and that recessions no longer exist,” he said.
But he noted as an example, year over year trend in nonfarm payrolls has slowed to below a 1.0% rate, and that level, or nearby, was associated with all the prior 12 recessions back to 1948.
The only two ‘asset classes’ that seem to recognize this risk are the dollar and the Treasury market, he added.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove stocks higher and bond yields lower as an unexpected inflation decline reinforced speculation the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates in September.
Just a week ahead of the Fed decision, the first drop in producer prices in four months soothed worries that elevated inflation would create a challenge for policymakers trying to prevent a jobs downturn.
The market reaction was immediate, and traders almost fully priced in three rate reductions in 2025.
The S&P 500 hit fresh all-time highs, with the artificial- intelligence trade in full swing after Oracle Corp.’s blockbuster cloud outlook sent the shares up 36% and spurred an industry surge.
Two-year yields fell two basis points to 3.54%.
The producer price index decreased 0.1% in August from a month earlier and July’s figure was revised down.
From the year before, it rose 2.6%.
Economists pay close attention to PPI as some components are used to calculate the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
President Donald Trump called for the Fed to make a “big” rate cut after the data.
“The worst-case scenario on inflation isn’t playing out,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“The doves will be happy to see the year-over-year number back below 3%.
Combined with the weak jobs data recently, this keeps us on track for rate cuts.
However, the speed and intensity might depend more on the big consumer index tomorrow.”
The extent to which companies pass the burden from tariffs on to consumers will be key in shaping the path for interest rates.
In fact, attention will soon shift to consumer price data due Thursday.
Forecasters expect another elevated advance in the core measure, which excludes food and energy.
“Tomorrow’s CPI will carry more weight, but today’s PPI print essentially rolled out the red carpet for a Fed rate cut next week,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“After last week’s jobs report, though, the market was already expecting the Fed to begin an easing cycle, so it remains to be seen how much of a near-term impact this will have on sentiment.”
The downside surprise to the PPI in August was driven by a compression of trade margins, reversing their unexpected widening in July, and therefore overstates the softness of producer prices, according to Stephen Brown at Capital Economics.
“Nonetheless, the big picture remains that tariff effects are feeding through only slowly,” he said.
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, firms may be trying to stay competitive to maintain market-share.
At the end of the day, tariff related pass-through has not been as much as anticipated, he noted.
“I think the Fed should cut 50 basis points next week — but I don’t think they will,” Dutta noted.
“The doves on the FOMC have a very strong case to make.
The hawks will argue that the unemployment rate is still low, financial conditions are loose, and that there is still upward inflation pressure in front of us due to tariffs.”
The better-than-expected and relatively benign producer price report is both good news and bad news, according to Scott Helfstein at Global X.
“On the positive side, tariffs are not having a drastic impact on company supply chains in aggregate.
Alternatively, the slowing in producer inflation could also signal a softening economy.
The Fed is likely to take notice but will still likely deliver a modest rate cut in September,” he said.
“Nothing in today’s data should sway the Fed from cutting rates next week,” said Mark Streiber at FHN Financial.
“Corporate profit margins surged after the pandemic and were hovering near all-time highs before the tariffs were implemented.
Tariffs have taken a bite out of those margins, but businesses certainly can absorb the blow.”
If profit margins were tighter to begin with, he noted, businesses likely would have shed employees to save on costs.
Disappointing employment data released Friday validated fears that the US labor market may be on the brink of a downturn and lifted expectations for how much the Fed will lower interest rates this year.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautiously opened the door to a cut
at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium last month, and more recent data showed the hiring slowdown extended into August.
“Investors are now contemplating the extent to which August’s payrolls, the benchmark revisions, and PPI should drive a conversation about a 50 bp cut next week,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
“We are still in the 25 bp cut camp.
For a half-point to be a real possibility, tomorrow’s core-CPI move will need to underwhelm.”
PPI data is good news for the Fed and marginally raises the probability of three sequential cuts in September, October and December, said according to Marco Casiraghi and Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“A few more inflation prints would not settle the question of whether the Fed should look through the tariff shock, but risks have already moved into better balance and Powell is sensitive to downside risks to the labor market,” they said.
“Core PPI declines further provide cover for a more accommodative monetary policy,” said Eric Teal at Comerica Wealth Management.
“The stagnant job market will take precedence as the Fed prepares to reduce rates and stimulate the economy, although we continue to believe the consumer is significantly less rate sensitive than in the past. So, more cuts are likely on the horizon.”
Consistently above-target inflation readings may limit its scope to deliver the more aggressive rate cuts that the jobs market side of the dual mandate prescribes, according to Matthew Weller at Forex.com and City Index.
“In terms of a potential market reaction, a surprise drop in this week’s CPI report could alleviate that tension and put a 50 basis-point rate cut firmly on the table,” he said.
Brown at Capital Economics says easing labor market conditions mean the Federal Open Market Committee is set to vote for a 25 basis-point cut next week — although “a rare triple dissent” in favor of a 50 basis-point move could steal the headlines.
“We expect the new Summary of Economic Projections to show only a slightly faster and deeper pace of easing than before, leaving the projected interest rate path above market pricing, he said.
The combination of a moderation in jobs growth and still manageable inflation should keep the Fed on track to cut rates, with a 25-basis-point cut expected in September to be followed by three additional consecutive cuts of the same size by January 2026, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Against this backdrop, she maintains her positive view on quality bonds and continue to favor medium duration Treasuries as part of a well-diversified portfolio.
Falling rates should further support the rally in equities, with the S&P 500 expected to finish 2025 near 6,600 and reach 6,800 by end-June 2026.
The gauge is currently above 6,500.
“This steady market rally shows that investors are increasingly forward-looking, pricing in a blend of policy accommodation, improving productivity dynamics, and the potential for fiscal support,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
In many ways, investors are leaning into the idea that slower labor momentum doesn’t necessarily derail corporate earnings or broader growth potential, but rather that supportive tailwinds will offset the recent wave of slowing economic data, as evidenced by easier financial conditions, he noted.
Consumer price data due Thursday will offer insights on the extent to which tariffs made their way to American households in August. Core CPI, a measure of underlying inflation excluding food and fuel, probably rose 0.3% for a second month, according
to the Bloomberg survey median estimate.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows investors expect an in-line inflation report tomorrow, with most respondents saying core CPI is on a Fed-friendly glide path.
Options traders are betting the S&P 500 will post a modest swing of nearly 0.7% in either direction following the CPI report, according to Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup Inc.’s head of US equity trading strategy.
That’s less than the average realized CPI Day move of 0.9% over the past year, and below expectations for the next jobs report on Oct. 3. And Kaiser thinks the implied move is high.
Wall Street forecasters are rushing to boost their outlook for the S&P 500 amid prospects for Fed cuts, robust corporate earnings and renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence.
Deutsche Bank AG’s Binky Chadha raised his year-end target to 7,000, saying half the estimated direct impact of tariffs has already flowed through into inflation. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas warned of risks in the short-term from inflation but said the gauge could rally to about 7,000 points by early next year amid easing policy headwinds, lower rates and record payouts.
With stocks pressing to new highs, the equity risk premium has all but disappeared, hinting that large- and small-cap stocks are no more compelling than Treasuries or corporate bonds, according to Michael Casper and Christopher Cain at Bloomberg Intelligence.
The S&P 500 equity risk premium — the spread between the earnings yield on stocks and the yield on the 10-year Treasury — is negative and well below its long-term average.
While the premium isn’t a great predictor of forward returns, it still hints that stocks are expensive relative to bonds.
“To sustain multiples at such extremes, rates will likely have to fall — putting the onus on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to deliver if stocks are going to continue to rally,” they said.
“Past periods of negative risk premia have been met with mixed returns, in aggregate suggesting that stock gains could be poised to slow.”
Stocks will brush off inflation risks and a weaker jobs outlook to end the year on a high note, according to the latest Markets Pulse survey.
Two-thirds of the 116 respondents to a poll conducted Sept. 5-10 say the S&P 500 will continue rallying in 2025, and a majority of that group anticipates gains will be driven by signals from the Fed indicating further interest-rate cuts before the year ends.
Equities are forecast to post better volatility-adjusted returns than bonds over the next month, with survey respondents torn on whether 10-year yields will be higher or lower in the weeks ahead.
With the Nasdaq 100 now nearly doubling since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management thinks investors are right to be weighing up what the next big catalysts might be to sustain the tech rally.
Oracle’s blockbuster guidance came after a brief period where investors were questioning the staying power of AI’s explosive growth and rotating out of some of the trend’s largest companies.
That trade is back on Wednesday with other AI winners such as Broadcom Inc., Palantir Technologies Inc., Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Nvidia climbing alongside Oracle.
“With robust tech earnings momentum and imminent Fed rate cuts ahead, we do not see elevated valuations as a reason to shy away from diversified exposure to the sector,” he said.
“Investors should consider using near-term volatility to build exposure within the AI theme.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Oracle Corp. soared after the company gave an aggressive outlook for its cloud business, cementing the software maker’s place in the race to support demand for artificial-intelligence computing.
* Klarna Group Plc shares jumped in their trading debut after the company and some of its backers raised $1.37 billion in an initial public offering that signals the market for new listings has room to run.
* JPMorgan Chase & Co., Fifth Third Bancorp and Barclays Plc are among banks bracing for potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in combined losses from loans tied to subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
** Tricolor Holdings, a used car seller and provider of subprime loans that focuses on undocumented immigrants in the US Southwest, filed to liquidate in bankruptcy.
* Boeing Co. has reached a tentative agreement with striking hourly workers at its St. Louis-area defense factories that improves wages and restores a signing bonus.
* GameStop Corp. jumped after the video-game retailer reported Hardware and Accessories net sales that beat the average analyst estimate.
* Chewy Inc. sank after the retailer of pet products gave an outlook that failed to live up to high expectations.
* Chip-design software maker Synopsys Inc. tumbled after the company warned that US export restrictions are contributing to a slowdown in China.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian said that consumer confidence has rebounded following a “big impact” from tariffs and the economic upheaval earlier this year.
* Uber Technologies Inc. customers will be able to book Blade’s helicopter and seaplane services directly within the Uber app as early as next year, as part of an expansion of the ride-hailing company’s partnership with Joby Aviation Inc.
* Lyft Inc. is piloting autonomous rides in Atlanta with a safety driver on board, a long-planned launch meant to help it better compete against Waymo and Uber.
* Following the success of its latest Starship test, SpaceX is readying a bigger version of the rocket that should be fully reusable next year, Elon Musk said.
* Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is venturing into Asia for the first time, with plans to open locations in South Korea and Singapore in 2026.
* Baker Hughes Co. plans to increase production of its high- performing, gas-fired power generation turbines as the artificial intelligence boom boosts electricity demand from data centers, Chief Executive Officer Lorenzo Simonelli said in an interview.
* Brookfield Asset Management said it has already secured investors and deals for its new artificial intelligence infrastructure strategy, as it positions itself to gain from what it sees as a multitrillion-dollar opportunity.
* Cenovus Energy Inc.’s top executive said the company doesn’t plan to increase its takeover offer for oil sands producer MEG Energy Corp., despite a higher rival bid from Strathcona Resources Ltd.
* Vimeo, the online video platform that has struggled to compete against the likes of YouTube and TikTok, agreed to a $1.38 billion, all-cash takeover by European mobile app developer Bending Spoons.
* Merck & Co. is terminating its early drug research in the UK and pulling out of plans for a £1 billion ($1.4 billion) London research hub, marking the latest setback for the country’s domestic pharmaceutical industry.
* Novo Nordisk A/S is slashing its workforce by 11% and pledging to move faster to catch up with Eli Lilly & Co. in the obesity market. That may mean making the company more like its US rival.
* A group led by BlackRock Inc.’s Global Infrastructure Partners unit has arranged a roughly $10 billion financing package for its planned investment in Saudi Aramco natural gas infrastructure, people familiar with the matter said.
* Nio Inc. raised about $1 billion through a share sale, as the Chinese electric-vehicle maker takes advantage of a recent stock rally to fund its growth.
* Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is committing another 1 billion yuan ($140 million) of incentives to drive more traffic to one of its most popular online services, cranking up the heat on JD.com Inc. and Meituan in their ongoing battle for Chinese consumers
What Bloomberg’s Strategists say…
“Preliminary August spending estimates point to a cooling from July’s pace, hinting at emerging cracks in consumer momentum.
Equity traders, however, will likely be inclined to look past this in anticipation of rate cuts.”
—Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
* Oracle rose 36%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1701
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3532
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.40 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $113,641.83
* Ether rose 0.5% to $4,324.74
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.04%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.63%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.54%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.69%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.8% to $63.78 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,641.89 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one’s courage. –Anaïs Nin, 1903-1977.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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