Month: July 2024

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

July 16, 1951: J.D. Salinger’s novel “The Catcher in the Rye” was published.  Go to article >>
July 16, 1995: Amazon.com sells its first book.

1548: La Paz Day, Bolivia.
July 16, 1945: Atomic bomb tested.

Roald Amundson, explorer, b. 1872.
Mary Baker Eddy, Christian Science founder, b.1821.
Joshua Reynolds, artis, b. 1723.
Will Farrell, comic actor, b.1967.

Whoopi Goldberg scattered some of her mother’s ashes at Disneyland
Spreading human ashes on Disneyland properties is strictly prohibited and unlawful, but Whoopi Goldberg defied the rules so her late mother could spend eternity in one of her favorite places.

This popular grocery store item is banned in South Korea
Beloved in the US, Trader Joe’s Everything But the Bagel seasoning is illegal in South Korea. Read why it’s banned.

Fossil of ancient shark uncovered in Mexico
Archaeologists found an almost complete skeleton of a shark that swam in the age of dinosaurs. The find sheds light on what the prehistoric relative of the great white looked like.

20 satellites fall from sky after catastrophic SpaceX rocket failure, triggering investigation
Twenty doomed Starlink satellites, which were prematurely released during a botched Falcon 9 rocket launch last week, have burned up in the upper atmosphere after falling back to Earth, new data confirms. Experts are currently investigating what went wrong.  Read More.

Stunning Tang dynasty mural in tomb unearthed in China may portray a ‘Westerner’ man with blond hair
A Tang dynasty tomb unearthed in China dates from the 700s, and the murals on its walls give an unprecedented view of daily life at the time. Read More.

‘Lovely freak of nature’: Mutant blue frog hops into wildlife sanctuary workshop
Researchers in Australia spotted a magnificent tree frog with blue skin — the result of a rare genetic mutation called axanthism, which suppresses yellow pigments that usually tint the frogs green. Read More.

What would happen if a black hole wandered into our solar system?
Black holes aren’t “cosmic vacuum cleaners,” but what would happen if one wandered into our solar system? Read More.

Copenhagen offers tourist rewards as other EU nations clamp down (Guardian)

PHOTOS FO THE DAY

Olathe, US
People practise yoga on paddleboards at sunset as the heat index tops 100F at Olathe Lake in Kansas
Photograph: Charlie Riedel/AP

Magda Wiet-Hénin, who competes in taekwondo, inside the Japanese garden of the Albert Kahn museum. The Japanese garden was created by the French banker and philanthropist Albert Kahn between 1895 and 1910.
Photograph: Joel Saget/AFP/Getty Images

Milky Way over Hobart City
Light pollution disrupts the natural balance of night and day, affecting towns and cities by obscuring the celestial spectacle of the Milky Way. Its pervasive glow alters ecosystems, effecting wildlife behaviour and habitats. Excessive artificial lighting wastes energy and disrupts human circadian rhythms, which can lead to health issues. This deprivation of natural darkness affects astronomy, education and cultural heritage, diminishing the awe-inspiring experience of gazing at the night sky.
Photograph: David Nolan
Market Closes for July 16^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40954.48	+742.76
		+1.85%
S&P 500	5667.20	+35.98
		+0.64%
NASDAQ	18509.34	+36.77
		+0.20%
TSX	22995.39	+243.71
		+1.07%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41275.08	+84.40
		+0.20%
HANG SENG	17727.98	-287.96
		-1.60%
SENSEX	80716.55	+51.69
		+0.06%
FTSE 100*	8164.90	-18.06
		-0.22%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.353	3.416
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.334	3.399
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1576	4.2294
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3721	4.4571

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7314	0.7310
US $	1.3672	1.3680

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4904	0.6710
US $	1.0900	0.9174

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2421.25	2406.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	81.91	81.91

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1997, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 8000 for the first time, just five months after breaking the 7000 mark.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fifth day, climbing 1.1%, or 243.71 to 22,995.39 in Toronto.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 160 of 226 shares rose, while 64 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain and had the largest move, increasing 8.5%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 14 times. The next day, it advanced 12 times for an average 0.7% and declined twice for an average 0.5%
* The index advanced 13% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 4.3% in the past 5 days and rose 6.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.61t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.02% compared with 10.88% in the previous session and the average of 11.01% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 75.1467| 4.1| 10/0
Materials | 58.7939| 2.0| 43/9
Financials | 51.4154| 0.7| 23/4
Industrials | 46.2415| 1.5| 27/1
Consumer Discretionary | 14.8041| 1.8| 12/1
Communication Services | 6.2611| 0.9| 4/1
Utilities | 6.0501| 0.7| 9/6
Real Estate | 5.4545| 1.1| 15/4
Consumer Staples | 3.4587| 0.4| 6/4
Health Care | 0.7709| 1.1| 3/1
Energy | -24.6916| -0.6| 8/33
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 63.3900| 8.5| 18.4| -7.6
TD Bank | 19.0700| 2.0| 13.2| -6.8
Brookfield Corp | 17.6700| 2.8| -32.7| 21.9
Suncor | -5.6610| -1.2| 8.2| 23.7
Manulife Financial | -6.0240| -1.3| -17.5| 24.9
Canadian Natural Resources | -15.1300| -2.0| -55.4| 13.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks hit all-time highs as bets the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting rates fueled a rush into riskier corners of the market.
Wall Street extended a pattern of money rotating into small caps and out of the mega-cap “safety” since last week’s soft inflation data.
Over the past four sessions, the Russell 2000 has beaten the Nasdaq 100 by almost 12 percentage points — a feat not seen since 2011.
An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 — where the likes of Nvidia Corp. carry the same heft as Dollar Tree Inc. — outpaced the US equity benchmark.
That index is less sensitive to gains from the biggest companies — providing a glimpse of hope the rally will broaden out.
“Rotation is the name of the game,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “This is consistent with the increased perception of cutting rates.”
Brenner highlighted the fact that around 4 a.m. New York time, Russell 2000 futures spiked — while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 slipped.
“This means that overseas money, big money, made a very large rotation trade overnight,” he said.
To Solita Marcelli, at UBS Global Wealth Management, if the Federal Reserve can cut rates significantly in the context of a soft landing, there will be better prospects for a re-acceleration in earnings growth for lower quality and cyclical segments of the market.
At Interactive Brokers, Jose Torres cited another potential reason for the rally in smaller firms: they tend to be domestically oriented and perceived to benefit “disproportionately” if Donald Trump wins the election.
The S&P 500 rose to around 5,667, posting its 38th record this year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed almost 2%.
The Russell 2000 gained 3.5%, posting its biggest five-day run since April 2020.
The Nasdaq 100 was little changed.
Treasury 10-year yields fell seven basis points to 4.16%.
Gold hit a record high.
Traders also waded through earnings.
Bank of America Corp. rose after saying net interest income would climb by the end of the year.
Morgan Stanley dropped as results from its wealth business fell short of estimates.
Charles Schwab Corp. warned it will have to shrink itself in order to protect profits.
The S&P 500 Index is barreling toward its longest stretch without a 2% decline since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007.
The index’s current bull run has added $18 trillion in market value since it touched its nadir in October 2022.
The strength of the equity market has been underpinned by optimism the economy has withstood the worst of Fed tightening.
In this regard, Tuesday’s better-than-estimated retail sales report was a “healthy” development, according to Bret Kenwell at eToro.
It’s better to see the Fed cutting rates on falling inflation than to see the central bank rushing to bolster a weakened economy, he noted.
While the broadening out in the US stock rally is seen as a positive sign, the surge in small caps in such a short span is showing signs of overheating.
In only five days, the Russell 2000 has jumped over 10% — hitting the most-overbought level since December.
Matt Maley at Miller Tabak says the gauge has reached the kind of overbought condition that has been followed by declines over the past two years.
“Thus, this could be signaling that the small cap sector is due for some sort of short-term breather,” he noted. “At the very least, investors should be careful about chasing these stocks over the near-term.”
In such case, he says it will be interesting to see if there’s a reversal of the “rotation” move.
Tech stocks are coming off their own overbought condition, so there’s no guarantee that they will advance during a pullback in the small cap names., he said.
The bottom line? If both tech stocks and the small caps decline at the same time, it could cause “some problems for the overall market,” he noted.
The move on the Russell 2000 is bullish, but investors should be ready for a potential profit-taking/consolidation in the sessions ahead, according to Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“The longer-term monthly chart on the Russell shows a better picture of its potential,” he noted. “We believe the Russell 2000 can trade back toward its all-time highs as mean reversion in relative strength highlights further bandwidth for the sector against this year’s leadership (tech/AI/Mag7).”
Wantrobski also pointed out that broader market breadth/participation has been improving since the CPI rally last week, with the NYSE cumulative A/D line now close to making new highs.
“The battle between the broader markets and 2024 leadership is set to continue over the short run in our view, as relative strength disparities between these groups show the potential for more rotation ahead,” Wantrobski said.
“This cannot be confirmed as a long-term trend/investment theme at this time. So for now, we continue to treat this as a trading opportunity (mean reversion move).”
Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler says it is too early to determine whether a sustainable rotation can be maintained.
More time and technical evidence are needed to confirm sustainable broadening participation that can lift the market higher is underway.
“The current (and long-awaited) broadening of equity gains is welcome, but elevated valuations will limit further market upside to low single digits overall for the remainder of the year,” said Robert Teeter at Silvercrest Asset Management.
The relative performance of the Nasdaq versus the Russell 2000 has been on a wild ride since 2020, with each besting the other by more than 40 percentage points over different one-year holding periods since the pandemic crisis, according to Nicholas Colas at DataTrek Research.
Dramatic small cap outperformance has only occurred after a tech stock crash or when retail investors created a small-cap bubble, he said.
“Neither setup is relevant now. We believe the Nasdaq will outperform the Russell by its 2003–2019 average of two points over the next year,” he noted.
As for whether the S&P 500 or Russell 2000 will outperform over the rest of the year, his view is that both will now do equally well but not at the same time due to their low correlation.
“For the moment, small caps have the better momentum because money managers cannot afford to stay as underweight as they have been forced to be over the last 18 months,” Colas said. “Once their reweighting is done, the S&P should be able to play catch up.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. are joining rival JPMorgan Chase & Co. in tapping the US investment-grade bond market after reporting second-quarter earnings.
* PNC Financial Services Group Inc. notched its first increase in net interest income since the end of 2022, setting itself up for what it expects to be a record year of NII growth in 2025.
* Microsoft Corp.’s investment into Inflection AI will get a full-blown UK antitrust probe, after the watchdog said it needed to take a closer look at the hiring of former employees from the artificial intelligence startup.
* Philip Morris International Inc. is expanding production of Zyn in the US as the popular oral nicotine pouch becomes increasingly hard to find because of soaring demand.
* Starboard Value became the third activist investor this year to take a stake in Match Group Inc., the owner of the dating app Tinder whose paying customer base has shrunk for six straight quarters.
* Adidas AG raised its annual profit target for the second time in three months amid soaring demand for classic sneakers like the Samba and more sales from the shrinking stockpile of Yeezy footwear.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
* US housing starts, industrial production, Wednesday
* Fed Beige Book, Wednesday
* Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Wednesday
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing, Conference Board LEI, Thursday
* Fed’s Mary Daly, Lorie Logan and Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
* Fed’s John Williams, Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.8%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 3.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0901
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2974
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 158.39 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.2% to $65,153.51
* Ether rose 1.1% to $3,474.43
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.16%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.43%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.05%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.3% to $80.87 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.9% to $2,468.56 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang, Jessica Menton and Esha Dey.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Hang on to your hat.  Hang on to your hope.  And wind the clock, for tomorrow is another day. –E.B. White, 1899-1985.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.  St. Swithin’s Day, England.

July 15, 2006: Twitter is Launched.
July 15, 2010: BP stopped the flow of oil into the Gulf of Mexico after 85 days using a 75-ton cap lowered onto the well earlier in the week.  Go to article >>

Rembrandt, artist, b. July 15, 1606.

Remains of hundreds of 7,000-year-old ‘standing stone circles’ discovered in Saudi Arabia
Archaeologists in Saudi Arabia have now excavated eight ancient stone circles that likely served as homes to people more than 7,000 years ago. Read More.

Mysterious Maya underground structure unearthed in Mexico
Archaeologists in Campeche, Mexico, have found an underground structure beneath a Maya ball court, as well as offerings on top of a Maya pyramid at another site. Read More.

Norway’s Dragon’s Eye: The fantastical ‘pothole’ that emerged from ice 16,000 years ago
Norway’s photogenic “Dragon’s Eye” likely formed around 20,000 years ago, when all of Scandinavia sat beneath an enormous mass of ice called the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet. Read More.

Entire pod of 89 pilot whales dies on Scottish beach in freak mass stranding
Dozens of long-finned pilot whales have beached and died on Sanday in the Orkney Islands, Scotland, in the biggest mass stranding the country has seen since 1995. Read More.

James Webb Space Telescope sees an ancient black hole dance with colliding galaxies
Using the James Webb Space Telescope, astronomers have witnessed the dramatic dance between a supermassive black hole-powered quasar and merging galaxies less than a billion years after the Big Bang. Read More.

Carlos Alcaraz defends Wimbledon crown
The 21-year-old tennis star defeated Novak Djokovic to become the first Spaniard to win back-to-back Wimbledon titles.

King Charles III and Queen Camilla to visit Australia and Samoa
The royal couple is heading down under in the fall. Here’s what we know about their upcoming travels.

Why only 400 people at a time can visit this paradise island
This stunning island could attract many tourists to its lush mountains, perfect beaches and blue waters. Instead, it has strict rules to deter all but a few.

Sunday’s soccer champions: Argentina wins Copa, Spain wins Euro
Argentina won their second consecutive and 16th Copa América title, defeating Colombia 1-0 in Miami. Also on Sunday, Spain won a historic fourth European Championship, beating England 2-1 in the Euro 2024 final in Berlin.

A ‘tiny truck’ movement?
Americans are buying more Kei trucks, which measure about half the length of a Ford F-150. Read about the growing hype around tiny trucks.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

California, US
Red foxes at play in Santa Clara
Photograph: Seshadri Sukumar/Zuma/Rex/Shutterstock

Tokyo, Japan
A woman in a yukata, or casual summer kimono, observes a lantern display as part of the annual Mitama festival at the Yasukuni shrine dedicated to the country’s war dead
Photograph: Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters

Chornomorsk, Ukraine
A woman climbs over tetrapods used as barriers against Russian military landing ships on the beach
Photograph: Nina Liashonok/Reuters
Market Closes for July 15^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40211.72	+210.82
		+0.53%
S&P 500	5631.22	+15.87
		+0.28%
NASDAQ	18472.57	+74.12
		+0.40%
TSX	22751.68	+78.16
		+0.34%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41190.68	-1033.34
		-2.45%
HANG SENG	18015.94	-277.44
		-1.52%
SENSEX	80664.86	+145.52
		+0.18%
FTSE 100*	8182.96	-69.95
		-0.85%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.416	3.409
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.399	3.368
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2294	4.1829
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4571	4.3959

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7310	0.7337
US $	1.3680	1.3629

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4905	0.6709
US $	1.0896	0.9178

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2406.85	2406.85
Oil
WTI Crude Future	81.91	82.62

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1916, William Boeing, a Yale-educated aeronautical engineer, incorporated the Pacific Aero Products Co. in Seattle with $100,000 in capital. He kept 998 of the original 1,000 shares of stock for himself. In 1917, he renamed his firm the Boeing Airplane Co.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the fourth day, climbing 0.3%, or 78.16 to 22,751.68 in Toronto.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.9%.
Stelco Holdings Inc. had the largest increase, rising 74.0%.
Today, 126 of 226 shares rose, while 97 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 24% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 21.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.8% in the past 5 days and rose 5.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.6t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.88% compared with 11.10% in the previous session and the average of 11.01% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 35.1993| 0.9| 29/12
Financials | 34.0894| 0.5| 23/4
Industrials | 17.9297| 0.6| 17/10
Real Estate | 4.1890| 0.9| 19/1
Communication Services | 4.1203| 0.6| 3/1
Information Technology | 3.7092| 0.2| 5/5
Health Care | 0.2965| 0.4| 2/2
Consumer Staples | -1.1223| -0.1| 4/7
Consumer Discretionary | -3.1849| -0.4| 5/8
Utilities | -8.1256| -0.9| 1/14
Materials | -8.9475| -0.3| 18/33
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 14.0900| 1.9| -11.8| 15.6
TD Bank | 11.2700| 1.2| 2.1| -8.6
Cenovus Energy | 10.0500| 4.0| -23.6| 28.5
First Quantum Minerals | -3.7630| -4.0| -34.9| 69.3
Enbridge | -4.3090| -0.6| 0.3| 2.6
Shopify | -5.7470| -0.8| -20.5| -14.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose as wild volatility calls failed to materialize after Donald Trump’s assassination attempt bolstered his chances of taking over the White House.
He tapped JD Vance as his running mate.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time high.
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. soared 31%.
Conservative video-sharing platform Rumble Inc. jumped 21%. ‘
Trump’s rising odds of victory boosted oil producers, gun makers and private prisons. His pro-cryptocurrency stance lifted the industry.
Tesla Inc. rallied as Elon Musk endorsed Trump.
Solar firms sank as Democrats are seen as more friendly toward the sector.
Vance is 39, nearly four decades younger than Trump, 78, offering a fresh voice to Republican efforts to bolster their appeal to the working-class workers who were once a bedrock of the Democratic party in battlegrounds such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
“The decision is crucial because one-third of US presidents throughout American history have previously occupied the position of vice president,” said Tom McLoughlin at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Moreover, in this instance, Trump’s decision effectively anoints Vance as his successor in terms of delivering a populist message to a younger generation of voters.”
The S&P 500 topped 5,630.
Apple Inc. hit a fresh high.
The Russell 2000 of smaller firms added almost 2%, notching the best four-day run since 2020.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. climbed on a surge in profits.
Macy’s Inc. sank after ending buyout talks.
US 30-year yield rose above the two-year one for the first time since January.
The dollar edged up.
Traders also kept an eye on Jerome Powell, who said recent data has provided more confidence inflation is heading to target.
The chances of Trump winning a second term rose in the aftermath of Saturday’s shooting, according to Predict It data.
“We were shocked by the attempt on former President Trump’s life, but suspect that markets will digest the news quickly and with little fanfare,” said John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management.
“Shocking events tend not to deter investors, who we expect will remain focused on economic and earnings results.”
To Mark McCormick at TD Securities, markets seem “less fussed about elections” and much keener to enjoy the slide in US data surprises, especially the latest consumer-price index reading.
“Everyone is passing around their favorite Trump trades — but I think we’ve seen over the past century that stock market moves are more random than what a president can dictate,” said Peter Boockvar at The Boock Report.
Election years are typically good for stocks, and barring major market mishaps such as the dotcom bust or the great financial crisis, the S&P 500 tends to notch robust gains.
In fact, the benchmark has risen in almost every election year since 1960, with the exception of 2000 and 2008.
That record has improved further in recent years.
In the three election years since 2008 — 2012, 2016, 2020 — the benchmark index rose at least 10%.

Corporate Highlights:
* BlackRock Inc. hauled in $51 billion of client cash to its long-term investment funds in the second quarter, pushing the world’s largest money manager to a record $10.6 trillion of  ASSETS.
* Google parent Alphabet Inc. is in talks to acquire cybersecurity startup Wiz Inc., according to a person familiar with the matter.
* International Business Machines Corp.’s proposed $6.4 billion takeover of software maker HashiCorp Inc. will undergo an in-depth antitrust review by the US Federal Trade Commission.
* Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. agreed to buy Canadian steelmaker Stelco Holdings Inc. for about C$3.85 billion ($2.8 billion), in the company’s first major move after losing out in its bid for United States Steel Corp. last year.
* The flight crew on a Southwest Airlines Co. aircraft that took off from a closed runway in June overlooked a key notice warning of the closure, US safety investigators said in a preliminary report.

Key events this week:
* US retail sales, Tuesday
* Morgan Stanley, Bank of America earnings, Tuesday
* Fed’s Adriana Kugler speaks, Tuesday
* Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
* US housing starts, industrial production, Wednesday
* Fed Beige Book, Wednesday
* Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Wednesday
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing, Conference Board LEI, Thursday
* Fed’s Mary Daly, Lorie Logan and Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
* Fed’s John Williams, Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0898
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2968
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 157.92 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 5.5% to $63,424.23
* Ether rose 6.5% to $3,410.42
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.23%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.47%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.10%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3% to $81.97 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,421.87 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have  a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Because in the end, you won’t remember the time you spent working in the office or mowing your lawn.  Climb that goddamn mountain. –Jack Kerouac, 1922-1969.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

July12, 1690: Protestant forces led by William of Orange defeated the Roman Catholic army of James II at the Battle of the Boyne in Ireland. Go to article >>
July 12, 1920: The independent republic of Lithuania, having successfully expelled invading Soviet troops, signs a peace treaty with Russia.

Henry David Thoreau, author, b.1817.
Buckminster Fuller, inventor, b.1895.
Pablo Neruda, poet, b. 1904.

Time might be a mirage created by quantum physics, study suggests
Physicists have struggled to understand the nature of time since the field began. But a new theoretical study suggests time could be an illusion woven at the quantum level. Read More.

Paleo-Arabic inscriptions on rock were made by Prophet Muhammad’s unconverted companion, study finds
The writing is only the second confirmed inscription whose attribution connects to Muhammad. Read More.

Neanderthals didn’t truly go extinct, but were rather absorbed into the modern human population, DNA study suggests
Modern human DNA may have made up a surprisingly large amount of the Neanderthal genome, a new study finds. Read More.

New quantum computer smashes ‘quantum supremacy’ record by a factor of 100 — and it consumes 30,000 times less power
The 56-qubit H2-1 computer has broken the previous record in the “quantum supremacy” benchmark first set by Google in 2019. Read More.

Italian authorities confiscate almost $1 million in fake olive oil
The alleged criminals were stunned this week when authorities raided their facilities olive a sudden.

Australian museum admits that ‘Picassos’ hanging in restroom are fake
The Museum of Old and New Art has come clean: The Picasso paintings hanging in its women’s restroom were forged by one of its own curators.

Olympics receives backlash over its official car
Scientists and engineers say the vehicle selected to be the official car of the Paris Olympics “will damage the reputation” of the green Games.

A timeline of the 7-month-long Ambani mega-wedding
Today is the main ceremony of India’s most anticipated wedding of the year. The internet is awash with rumors of the performer lineup, but one thing is certain: There will be no expense spared.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A visitor take photos at Mesquite Flat Sand Dunes in Death Valley national park
Photograph: Mario Tama/Getty Images

Wentworth, Surrey
Backing on to the 17th green of the championship golf course is this family home with a south-facing garden.
Photograph: Nick Ayliffe/Knight Frank

​​​​​​​Atlantic dolphins leap out of the water off Ponta Delgada on São Miguel Island in the Azores archipelago, Portugal
Photograph: Darrin Zammit Lupi/Reuters
Market Closes for July 12^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40000.90	+247.15
		+0.62%
S&P 500	5615.35	+30.81
		+0.55%
NASDAQ	18398.45	+115.04
		+0.63%
TSX	22673.52	+129.39
		+0.57%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41190.68	-1033.34
		-2.45%
HANG SENG	18293.38	+461.05
		+2.59%
SENSEX	80519.34	+622.00
		+0.78%
FTSE 100*	8252.91	+29.57
		+0.36%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.409	3.434
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.368	3.385
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1829	4.2101
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3959	4.4200

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7337	0.7335
US $	1.3629	1.3634

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4883	0.6719
US $	1.0920	0.9158

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2406.85	2409.20
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.62	82.10

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1773, Jonathan’s Coffee House in London, where brokers had met for decades to smoke, drink and trade, was renamed the Stock Exchange.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.6%, or 129.39 to 22,673.52 in Toronto.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.4%.
Aritzia Inc. had the largest increase, rising 14.8%.
Today, 158 of 226 shares rose, while 63 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 2.8%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Nov. 3
* The index advanced 13% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 24% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 21.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 on a trailing basis and 15.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.58t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.10% compared with 11.28% in the previous session and the average of 11.02% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 50.3642| 0.7| 23/4
Materials | 30.5490| 1.1| 33/17
Industrials | 17.2634| 0.6| 22/6
Consumer Discretionary | 8.5357| 1.1| 10/3
Information Technology | 6.2599| 0.3| 7/2
Communication Services | 5.3893| 0.8| 4/0
Consumer Staples | 5.3096| 0.5| 9/1
Utilities | 4.1501| 0.5| 11/4
Real Estate | 3.3151| 0.7| 15/5
Health Care | -0.1238| -0.2| 2/2
Energy | -1.6206| 0.0| 22/19
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | 14.4800| 2.4| 4.6| 18.0
RBC | 12.0600| 0.8| 1.6| 13.1
TD Bank | 7.8020| 0.8| 44.0| -9.6
Cameco | -3.4320| -1.5| -6.8| 26.2
Shopify | -4.9020| -0.7| 72.9| -14.2
Canadian Natural Resources | -9.5900| -1.3| -49.8| 13.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks finished higher as the latest economic data reinforced bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September.
In the last 30 minutes of Wall Street trading, the S&P 500 pared its advance.
Banks got hit at the start of the US earnings season, with results from Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. failing to fuel industry momentum.
Tech mega-caps rebounded as a group, though Meta Platforms Inc. slid almost 3%.
Smaller firms kept climbing.
Equity traders brushed off a weak reading on consumer sentiment to focus on prospects for rate cuts that could ultimately benefit Corporate America.
Data also showed producer prices climbed slightly more than forecast — but categories used to calculate the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, were not so bad.
“We continue to expect the Fed to join the global rate-cutting cycle in September, with 50 basis points of easing this year,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The S&P 500 rose to 5,615 — notching a 10th weekly gain in 12 weeks.
Nvidia Corp. led gains in big tech.
Tesla Inc. rallied a day after tumbling over 8%.
The Russell 2000 of small caps saw its best week since November.
Wells Fargo sank 6% after warning it won’t be able to whittle away costs as fast as forecast.
JPMorgan missed on a few key metrics like net interest income — despite posting record profit.
Citigroup said costs for the year are likely to be at the high end of the range previously provided.
Bank of New York Mellon Corp. jumped on better-than-expected NII.
As traders recalibrated their bets on rate cuts, Treasuries wiped out their 2024 losses this week.
US 10-year yields declined three basis points to 4.18% on Friday.
“A critical risk, however, lies in financial conditions loosening — a development that is already contributing to our real-time tracking measures pointing to July inflation of 0.3% m/m for headline and core,” said Jose Torres at Interactive
Brokers. “A continuation of these developments, which is my base case, will deter the Fed from dishing out its first cut of the cycle in September.”
To Krishna Guha at Evercore, the latest PPI release confirms June inflation is set to print very mild in the mid-teens month-on-month on the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure — putting US officials firmly on track to cut in September.
He also says this “new Fed phase” may sustain the stock-market breadth.
“We are now entering a new phase in which preemptive cuts (as opposed to reactive cuts driven by bigger rises in unemployment) can de-risk the forward growth outlook, he noted.
“Provided the Fed is not moving too slowly to arrest the underlying weakening of the economy, this de-risking of the forward growth outlook favors market breadth and cyclical sectors.”
One of the biggest questions about the market rotation of the previous session — which notably improved breadth — is whether or not it is a legitimate trend reversal of the last year and half — or yet another head fake, according to Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“We will say at the outset that as far as the technicals are concerned, it cannot be confirmed that yesterday’s action was the beginning of a sustainable longer-term trend,” he noted.
“However, from a trading perspective, we do believe we can continue to see further rotation over the near term, as charts still point to the potential for mean reversion.”
One thing to keep in mind is that a “rotational” move is not the same as  a “broadening out” move, according to Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“We believe a ‘rotational’ move will do the exact opposite of what it did when investors were ‘rotating’ into the tech sector in a big way over the past 20 months:  It will drag the entire market lower with it — just like it has dragged the rest of the market higher with it since the fall of 2022,” he noted.
A highlight of this week was the big rebound in smaller firms — which have largely lagged the broader market and especially big tech names this year.
Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial says the Russell 2000 is viewed as an important barometer of potential interest-rate easing, but also a gauge for economic conditions.
“Historically, the Russell 2000 lags the market for three months following the first rate cut. The Fed normally cuts rates due to concerns about the economy and specifically the labor market,” Krosby noted. “The market would much prefer a rate cut predicated on inflation easing amid a solid economic landscape.”
The next few economic data points, in addition to earnings reports, should help clarify if small-cap performance is completely warranted, she concluded.
“Bulls withstood a barrage of data this week,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “Market momentum remains relentless.  Several important hurdles have been cleared, making earnings the next likely market catalyst.”  

Corporate Highlights:
* AT&T Inc. said on Friday that hackers stole a cache of six months’ worth of mobile-phone customer data, disclosing for the first time a cybersecurity breach that was massive in its scope and potential risks to national security.
* Boeing Co. has notified some 737 Max customers in recent weeks that aircraft due for delivery in 2025 and 2026 face additional delays, another reminder that production of its cash-cow jetliner faces a long road to recovery.
* Amazon.com Inc.’s artificially intelligent shopping assistant, Rufus, is now available to all US customers following five months of testing with a subset of consumers.
* Deutsche Lufthansa AG cut its profit outlook for the full year and warned that breaking even at its namesake German unit will be “increasingly challenging” as it grapples with higher unit costs and falling ticket prices.
* Novo Nordisk A/S’s Ozempic was linked to lower rates of dementia and a range of other mental problems in a University of Oxford study that raises expectations about the diabetes drug’s potential ancillary benefits.
* Samsung Electronics Co.’s largest union is now calling on employees at one of the company’s most advanced AI memory chip plants to walk off the job, switching tactics after their campaign for higher pay showed signs of losing steam.
* Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s $420 billion equity rally this year will get a valuation test next week when it reports earnings, with analysts expecting the chipmaker to raise full-year sales forecasts.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0906
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2986
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 157.85 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $57,641.16
* Ether was little changed at $3,118.81
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.18%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.50%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.11%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $82.25 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,411.64 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Don’t count the days, make the days count. -Muhammad Ali, 1942-2016.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

July 11, 1804: Vice President of the United States Aaron Burr mortally wounds former Secretary of the Treasury Alexander Hamilton in a pistol duel.
July 11, 1985 Coca-Cola Co., bowing to pressure from irate customers after the introduction of New Coke, said it would resume selling its old formula. Go to article >>

E.B. White author, b. 1899.
John Constable, artist, b. 1776.

Two epic matches set for Sunday
England and Spain have earned spots in Sunday’s Euro 2024 final. Later that day, many fans will also tune in to the last Copa América 2024 face-off between Argentina and Colombia.

A soccer shakeup
Gregg Berhalter has been fired as the head coach of the United States men’s national soccer team following the squad’s Copa America elimination.

Ellen DeGeneres is ‘done’ after her Netflix special
The former talk show is ready to step out of the public eye after her Netflix special releases later this year.

AI isn’t just a tool; it’s a transformative force that can disrupt industries, challenge norms and create opportunities where none existed before.  — Moroccan influencer Kenza Layli, after she was crowned the world’s first AI beauty pageant winner. Notably, Kenza Layli is entirely generated by artificial intelligence, from her striking appearance to her buzzword-filled acceptance speech.

Ancient stone circles in Norway were hiding a dark secret: dozens of children’s graves
A Bronze and Iron Age burial ground for children that was unearthed in Norway was used for 600 years, and archaeologists aren’t sure why.  Read More.

Rainforest of super trees descended from lost supercontinent Gondwana being created in Australia
Project seeks to protect ancient tree lineages that have survived from a time before Earth’s continents broke apart.

James Webb telescope spies bejeweled ‘Einstein ring’ made of warped quasar light
New photos from the James Webb Space Telescope show off the bewitching beauty of the warped quasar RX J1131-1231, which is adorned with four bright spots birthed by mind-bending space-time trickery.  Read More.

AI speech generator ‘reaches human parity’ — but it’s too dangerous to release, scientists say
Microsoft’s VALL-E 2 can convincingly recreate human voices using just a few seconds of audio, its creators claim. Read More

NASA astronauts say they’re ‘confident’ Starliner will bring them home, despite no return date in sight
Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams say they are confident they will be able to return soon, but the exact date of their journey home remains unknown. Read More.

Plague strikes person in Colorado
Colorado health officials have confirmed a human case of plague in the state. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

İzmir, Turkey
A view of the gallery of Ozgur apartment block, filled with greenery planted by caretaker brothers Halil and Ayhan Coban. They have transformed the courtyard of their apartment building into a botanical garden over 30 years
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Copiapó, Chile
Aerial view of the Atacama desert covered in wild flowers. The driest desert on the planet displayed purple flowers over several miles this week, which appeared thanks to unusual rains recorded in the area of northern Chile
Photograph: Patricio Lopez Castillo/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Svalbard, Norway
The Bråsvellbreen glacier in Nordaustlandet, Svalbard
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 11^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39753.75	+32.39
		+0.08%
S&P 500	5584.54	-49.37
		-0.88%
NASDAQ	18283.41	-364.04
		-1.95%
TSX	22544.13	+193.90
		+0.87%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	42224.02	+392.03
		+0.94%
HANG SENG	17832.33	+360.66
		+2.06%
SENSEX	79897.34	-27.43
		-0.03%
FTSE 100*	8223.34	+29.83
		+0.36%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.434	3.475
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.385	3.401
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2101	4.2841
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4200	4.4768

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7335	0.7344
US $	1.3634	1.3617

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4816	0.6749
US $	1.0867	0.9202

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2409.20	2384.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.10	82.10

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1986, Fannie Mae offered the first issue of stripped mortgage-backed securities through Goldman Sachs. Bond buyers could buy either interest-only or principal-only bonds, enabling them to bet aggressively on the direction of interest rates.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.9%, or 193.9 to 22,544.13 in Toronto.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 182 of 226 shares rose, while 42 fell.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.6%.
MTY Food Group Inc. had the largest increase, rising 11.1%.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 2.2%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Nov. 17
* The index advanced 13% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 20.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.3% in the past 5 days and rose 3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 on a trailing basis and 15.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.55t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.28% compared with 11.23% in the previous session and the average of 11.01% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 50.7335| 1.8| 44/8
Financials | 42.3949| 0.6| 20/7
Energy | 37.4634| 0.9| 35/5
Industrials | 20.9510| 0.7| 16/12
Utilities | 14.4064| 1.7| 15/0
Consumer Discretionary | 11.7602| 1.5| 11/1
Real Estate | 11.5844| 2.5| 19/1
Communication Services | 9.0362| 1.4| 5/0
Health Care | 0.9356| 1.4| 4/0
Information Technology | -2.2652| -0.1| 6/4
Consumer Staples | -3.1177| -0.3| 7/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 18.8400| 2.6| -47.4| 8.3
Brookfield Corp | 12.3800| 2.1| -5.0| 15.3
Canadian Natural Resources | 11.8400| 1.6| -2.4| 14.9
Thomson Reuters | -3.3990| -1.4| -15.3| 16.2
Couche-Tard | -3.8110| -0.9| -17.5| 3.7
RBC | -4.9430| -0.3| -27.0| 12.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders betting the Federal Reserve will be able to cut rates soon sent bond yields tumbling — while driving a big rotation out of the tech mega-caps that have powered the bull market in stocks.
Further signs that inflation is slowing down fueled speculation the Fed will be able to move as early as September.
Optimism over lower rates sparked a shift into riskier corners of the market — as money exited the long-favored safety trade of big tech.
The Russell 2000 of smaller firms beat the Nasdaq 100 by 5.8 percentage points — the most since November 2020.
While the S&P 500 fell nearly 1%, almost 400 of its shares were up.
To Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management, today could be a turning point for markets.
It’s also a good reminder that diversifying is important.
“The big tech trade is turning on itself, yet the rest of the market is finally stepping in,” Cox said. “The S&P 500 is down today, but this is the best kind of selloff you could hope for if you’re a long-term investor.”
An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 — where the likes of Nvidia Corp. carry the same heft as Dollar Tree Inc. — jumped.
That gauge is less sensitive to gains from the largest companies — providing a glimpse of hope that the rally will broaden out.
The S&P 500 fell to around 5,585.
The Nasdaq 100 sank over 2%.
A Bloomberg gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega-caps saw its worst session since October 2022.
Tesla Inc. sank 8.4% on news it’s postponing its planned robo-taxi unveiling to October.
The Russell 2000 climbed 3.6% — its best day in 2024.
Homebuilders soared. Banks rose ahead of the start of the earnings season.
US 10-year yields slid eight basis points to 4.20%.
The dollar saw its biggest drop since May. Japan’s currency chief stuck with his strategy of trying to keep market players in the dark over whether Tokyo stepped in to prop up the yen after sharp moves.
US inflation cooled broadly in June to the slowest pace since 2021 on the back of a long-awaited slowdown in housing costs, sending the strongest signal yet that the Fed can cut rates soon.
To Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, July is still a longshot, but Thursday’s “Fed-friendly CPI” got markets one step closer to a September rate cut.
A lingering question is whether this high-flying stock market has already priced in multiple cuts, he noted.
At Interactive Brokers, Steve Sosnick says that if you look at the reactions of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, you’d think that the “benign” CPI report was bad for stocks.
In reality, today’s data is helping the vast majority of shares trade higher, he noted.
“We are getting a dose of the ‘healthy rotation’ that many have hoped for, yet it is impacting key indices nonetheless, he noted, “This type of market activity points out in vivid detail why the top-heavy concentration of cap-weighted indices is a source of potential instability for a tech-driven market.”
Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott, Thursday’s market action showcases a notable improvement in overall breadth/participation.
“This fanning out from the narrow leadership areas (Mag 7/AI/mega-cap) throughout much of this year is what we would like to see continue over the coming weeks and months in order to confirm a healthier expansion cycle on a longer-term basis,” he added.
The rotation out of this year’s winners pushed the $10.7 billion iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (ticker: MTUM) to its worst session since May.
Momentum strategies that buy winning stocks and dump the losers have surged in 2024, with MTUM notching its strongest start to any year ever.
“It’s a pretty swift reversal in the momentum trade, and that tends to benefit the laggards to a significant degree,” said Kevin Gordon at Charles Schwab. “No question it’s in response to the fact that the prospect of rate cuts helps
companies that have been struggling in the ‘higher for longer environment.’”
Sosnick warns, though, that a prolonged selloff in some of the biggest names could pressure the main indices that investors watch — even if the majority of stocks remain initially unscathed.
“That in turn could cause investors to lighten their exposure to key index-based investments, such as ETFs like SPY and QQQ,” he said. “If that occurs, then the selling could swamp the index as a whole, hurting the now laggard value stocks nonetheless.”
Neuberger Berman Group’s Steve Eisman expects the outsized strength in US mega-cap technology shares will “last for years,” as artificial intelligence becomes more accessible to consumers via electronic devices.
“You have to own the big, large-cap tech stocks,” he told Bloomberg Television in an interview on Thursday.
Meantime, investors are growing increasingly concerned that US technology mega-caps are spending too much on artificial intelligence, according Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
Companies that the strategists refer to as “hyperscalers” — including Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. — have utilized about $357 billion for capital expenditure as well as research and development in the past year, the team led by Ryan Hammond said.
“Today’s hyper-scalers will eventually be required to prove that revenues and earnings will be generated from their investments,” Hammond wrote in a note. “Early signs that may not be generated, could lead to valuation de-rating.”
With the earnings season just around the corner, it appears growth in the tech group will fade a touch as the rest of the pack gathers speed, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategists led by Gina Martin Adams.
While forecasts for the “Magnificent Seven” remain robust, their earnings are expected to slow in the second quarter — just as the rest of the S&P 500 may finally post their first year-on-year growth in at least five quarters.
As the Wall Street stalwarts kick off their second-quarter earnings announcements Friday, investors are looking past another projected drop in net interest income — a key source of revenue for the lenders.
Instead, they’re anticipating a rosy view on fee-generating businesses like investment banking and signals that at least some banks see a rebound in loan profits.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. start the earnings cycle Friday morning, followed by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on Monday.
Morgan Stanley and Bank of America
Corp. report Tuesday.

Wall Street’s Reaction to CPI:

* Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co:
Sticky inflation is coming unglued. We now think this paves the way for a first cut in September (previously November), followed by quarterly cuts thereafter.

* Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research:
The doves have what they need. It is time to cut.

* George Mateyo at Key Wealth:
We’ll see you September! Better-than-expected inflation readings in many key sectors should allow the Fed to start talking about adjusting policy in July — and potentially allow the Fed to act in September.  That said, we still see the Fed wanting to gain further confidence before cutting aggressively unless stress materializes in the labor market.

* Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital:
With another good CPI print under their belt, the window is open for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as September, and potentially again in December, assuming the inflation data continues to cooperate.  The Fed is in a tug of war with the Treasury, which is spending lots of money and arguably adding to inflation.  At the current pace of the inflation slowdown, it may be 6-8 months before we get to the mystical 2% inflation target the Fed is
waiting for.

* Richard Flynn at Charles Schwab UK:
Today’s figures show that the rate of inflation has dropped, compared to last month. This is the latest in a string of data releases that continues to set the stage for the Fed to cut interest rates this year, potentially as soon as September.  We expect that this economic optimism will benefit markets.

* Ron Temple at Lazard:
A September rate cut should be a done deal at this point.  Given the increasing evidence of slowing economic growth, it’s time for the Fed to refocus on the dual mandate and ease monetary policy.

* Jason Pride at Glenmede:
These CPI reports are like a tic-tac-toe board, two in a row isn’t enough to claim victory, but it is a significant step forward after a years-long unrelenting inflation force.  The FOMC meeting in September is probably truly “live” in
the sense that rate cuts are on the table for serious consideration, setting up the potential for the Fed to cut at each of its three meetings to close out the year, as easing inflation allows it to focus on both sides of its dual mandate.

* Jay Hatfield at Infrastructure Capital Advisors:
The cool inflation print, combined with a weakening economy and labor market, indicates that the Fed should cut in July, but probably won’t due to its flawed policy framework and propensity to be behind the curve. We do believe that the Fed will definitely cut by September.  The September Fed cut will usher in a wave of continued central bank cuts which will require a large injection of liquidity into the global banking system. Historically, large injections of liquidity cause rallies in both stocks and bonds.

* Greg McBride at Bankrate:
With abundant signs of a cooling economy, the Consumer Price Index for June certainly constitutes the “more good data” on inflation that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said we need to see before the Fed can begin cutting interest  rates.  This aligns with a September interest rate cut.

* Peter Boockvar at The Boock Report:
Inflation continues to moderate. September cut is a lock I believe.  I’ll argue again though, the battle with inflation is being won but the outcome of the war is yet to be determined and will only be when we have a sustained period of low inflation.

* Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group:
The inflation fight is entering a new phase as the data clearly demonstrate — the economy is cooling and so is inflation.  With a major deficit fight looming in 2025, chances are the Fed will have to be more aggressive than folks currently appreciate.

* Chris Low at FHN Financial:
The Fed will be very pleased with the June CPI report. In fact, inflation was so subdued, FOMC members may start to worry they have kept policy tight for too long.  A 10 basis-point drop in 10-year yields suggest bond traders are not just expecting quick cuts, they are starting to price in more cuts, too.

* Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities:
This will not make July viable — but September looks likely. But beware we still have to bid on a long bond.

* John Kerschner at Janus Henderson:
Given that the next Federal Reserve meeting is less than three weeks away, the market is currently pricing in that the Federal Reserve will skip that meeting and make their first cut in September.  Maybe more importantly, the market is now expecting three cuts by the end of January 2025. Chair Powell recently said that the risks towards inflation are now more “balanced.”  Today’s number reinforces that view and perhaps now tilts the scale towards concerns of a sharper slowdown in the US economy.

* David Russell at TradeStation:
Given rising inventories in housing, this sizeable component of the price index is finally starting to give the Fed what it needs to see for rate cuts. Goldilocks is here and a September cut looks more likely than ever.

* Bryce Doty at Sit Investment Associates:
Our base case is still a half point cut in December but we now think there is a decent chance for a September cut.  The belly of the curve will benefit the most. We really like the 5-year here.

* Bret Kenwell at eToro:
When combined with the recent weakness we’ve seen in the labor market, this likely has the Fed readying a rate cut. Some investors may be wondering if a July cut could be in the cards.  While that may be too soon for the Fed, a September cut should be the base-case expectation.  Energy and goods both weighed on the CPI results, while the stickier services component has finally started to cool a bit.  If this trend continues, it certainly points to lower rates from the Fed, which is still trying to orchestrate a soft landing.

* John Lynch at Comerica Wealth Management:
Since the federal funds rate (5.25%-5.00%) remains above nominal GDP growth of approximately 5.0%, we look for two cuts in the coming months to ensure monetary policy gets less restrictive.  Beyond that, however, investors should be careful what they wish for…if the Fed cuts much beyond that, it will be because the Fed HAS to cut!  That is not an environment conducive for economic or market growth.

* Kurt Rankin at PNC:
The June 2024 CPI result brings a September 2024 Fed Funds rate cut into the picture.  Commentary from Fed officials should soon begin leaning toward optimism that their goal of an average 2.0% pace of consumer price growth is attainable, as opposed to recent rhetoric that has been ever wary of risks and pitfalls along the road ahead. And if a few more months’ worth of inflation’s current downward trend can be secured, actions on interest rates will surely follow that rosier talk.

* Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics:
CPI qualifies as “more good data.”   With Fed officials also apparently getting a little more nervous about labour market weakness, it does strengthen the case for a September rate cut.

* Lindsay Rosner at Goldman Sachs Asset Management:
One word: pivotal.  With three inflation prints between this morning and September’s Fed meeting, today’s print was crucial in helping the Fed gain confidence inflation is still moving in the right direction.

* Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial:
Cool CPI puts a September rate cut clearly in play.  For the market, clearly the preferred basis for easing rates is predicated on inflationary pressures cooling at a steady pace rather than on an economy losing momentum.

Corporate Highlights:
* Bunge Global SA’s $8 billion deal to acquire Glencore Plc-backed Viterra is facing the risk of delays as countries including Canada, China and the European Union are yet to approve the acquisition.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. warned that domestic carriers are struggling to fill planes in the all-important summer travel season, dragging down ticket prices in a fare war that’s weighing on profits.
* Pfizer Inc. is moving forward with a weight-loss pill as it seeks to mount a comeback from its post-pandemic slump, but the drugmaker gave few clues about what exactly informed that decision.
* Apple Inc. has avoided the threat of fines from European Union regulators by agreeing to open up its mobile wallet technology to other providers free of charge for a decade.
* Costco Wholesale Corp. is boosting its membership fees for the first time since 2017, raising the charge for a basic membership to $65 a year from $60.
* Royal Bank of Canada is shuffling its leadership ranks and breaking its largest division into two, in one of the biggest reorganizations of Dave McKay’s decade-long tenure as chief executive officer.

Key events this week:
* China trade, Friday
* University of Michigan consumer sentiment, US PPI, Friday
* Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo’s earnings, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0864
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2913
* The Japanese yen rose 1.8% to 158.83 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin was little changed at $57,364.12
* Ether rose 0.3% to $3,105.14
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.20%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 2.46%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.07%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $83.06 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.8% to $2,413.84 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Alexandra Semenova, Felice Maranz, Carly Wanna, Henry Ren and Bre Bradham.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Courage is contagious.  When a brave man takes a stand, the spines of others are stiffened. -Billy Graham, 1918-2018.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 10, 1962: Testar, the world’s first communication satellite is launched in space.

On July 10, 1940, during World War II, the 114-day Battle of Britain began as Nazi forces began attacking southern England by air. By late October, Britain managed to repel the Luftwaffe, which suffered heavy losses. Go to article >>

July 10, 1985: Rainbow Warrior sunk. Greenpeace.
John Calvin, founder of Presbyterianism, b.1509.
James M. Whistler, painter, b.1834.
Marcel Proust, writer, b. 1871.
Arthur Ashe, tennis player, b.1943.

Roman emperor Caligula’s 2,000-year-old garden unearthed near the Vatican
The gardens overlooking the Tiber river in Italy once belonged to an infamous Roman emperor.  Read More.

4,500-year-old tomb in France reveals secrets of how ‘European genome’ came to be
Researchers used DNA analysis to learn more about ancient human interbreeding. Full Story: Live Science (7/10)

‘Eyeball’ planet spied by James Webb telescope might be habitable
Located 50 light-years from Earth, the beady-eyed exoplanet LHS 1140 b could be a perfect candidate for discovering liquid water outside the solar system, new research suggests. Read More.

World’s most difficult maze could help reveal the secrets of otherworldly quasicrystals
Scientists created a maze-like fractal inspired by the movements of chess pieces. The ultra-difficult maze could help to improve our understanding of bizarre quasicrystals. Read More.

Earliest known photograph of a US first lady acquired by Smithsonian’s National Portrait Gallery
This photograph of former first lady Dolley Madison, wife of fourth US President James Madison, dates from around 1846.

Copa América: Argentina celebrates semifinal win
Guided by Lionel Messi, Argentina defeated Canada 2-0 on Tuesday to advance to the finals. The team will face either Uruguay or Colombia in Sunday’s highly anticipated match

World’s biggest indoor snow and ice park opens in China
The world’s largest indoor ice and snow theme park has opened its doors to the public, giving visitors to the northeast Chinese city of Harbin a chance to feel wintry temperatures year-round.

Despite the decades between us, we were fortunate to spend those 10 minutes together, so I could experience this tradition passed down by our ancestors.  — CNN’s Kathleen Magramo, describing her experience getting inked by 107-year-old Apo Whang-Od Oggay, the world’s oldest tattoo artist. Residing in the Philippines’ Kalinga province, Whang-Od is internationally renowned for hand-tapping tattoos used by the region’s indigenous tribes.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Tokyo, Japan
An immersive digital artwork is displayed at the TeamLab Planets Tokyo Museum
Photograph: Yoshio Tsunoda/Aflo/Rex/Shutterstock

Shaoxing, China
Woven Passage to Cloudy Peaks by line+ studio.
Photograph: line+studio/World Architecture Festival

Munich, Germany
A golden sky over Allianz Arena during the Uefa Euro 2024 semi-final match between Spain and France
Photograph: Christian Liewig/Corbis/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 10^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39721.36	+429.39
		+1.09%
S&P 500	5633.91	+56.93
		+1.02%
NASDAQ	18647.45	+218.16
		+1.18%
TSX	22350.22	+307.72
		+1.40%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41831.99	+251.82
		+0.61%
HANG SENG	17471.67	-51.56
		-0.29%
SENSEX	79924.77	-426.87
		-0.53%
FTSE 100*	8193.51	+53.70
		+0.66%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.475	3.490
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.401	3.420
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2841	4.2959
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4768	4.4881

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7344	0.7335
US $	1.3617	1.3633

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4755	0.6778
US $	1.0836	0.9229

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2384.35	2376.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.10	81.41

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1991, Boris Yeltsin became Russia’s first freely elected president. He oversaw the country’s tumultuous embrace of capitalism in the 1990s, before Vladimir Putin succeeded him on the eve of the millennium. Yeltsin died in Moscow in 2007.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.4% at 22,350.23 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since May 6 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Today, energy stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 175 of 226 shares rose, while 43 fell.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.4%.
Cameco Corp. had the largest increase, rising 9.4%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain seven times. The next day, it advanced after all seven occasions
* The index advanced 13% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 27% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.9% below its 52-week high on May 21, 2024 and 19.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.6% in the past 5 days and rose 1.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.5t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.23% compared with 11.62% in the previous session and the average of 11.00% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 70.4191| 1.8| 31/8
Materials | 65.5276| 2.4| 44/7
Financials | 65.2973| 1.0| 24/3
Industrials | 59.2629| 1.9| 21/6
Consumer Staples | 14.0738| 1.5| 9/1
Utilities | 13.6205| 1.6| 13/2
Consumer Discretionary | 9.1717| 1.2| 9/3
Information Technology | 7.4333| 0.4| 7/3
Real Estate | 3.1598| 0.7| 13/5
Health Care | 0.5807| 0.9| 2/2
Communication Services | -0.8376| -0.1| 2/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 23.7300| 3.4| -14.4| 5.5
Cameco | 19.0700| 9.4| 130.5| 28.0
Canadian National | 15.7300| 2.5| 29.9| -3.0
Nutrien | -1.6940| -0.7| 10.3| -11.9
Telus | -2.2700| -1.1| -16.3| -11.7
Shopify | -6.5920| -0.9| -18.6| -13.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in the world’s largest technology companies sent stocks to all-time highs, with Jerome Powell’s remarks to Congress not doing much to dissuade traders from betting on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
For the first time in its history, the S&P 500 topped 5,600.
A renewed bid for mega-caps drove the US equity benchmark to its longest rally since November, with Nvidia Corp. up over 2.5% and Apple Inc. climbing on news it aims to ship 10% more new iPhones after a bumpy 2023.
Treasuries remained fairly stable after a strong $39 billion sale of 10-year bonds.
Swaps are pricing in two Fed cuts in 2024 — and higher chances the first comes in September.
As Wall Street geared up for the consumer-price index, Powell said the Fed doesn’t need inflation below 2% before cutting rates, while adding officials still have more work to do. He noted the labor market has cooled “pretty significantly.”
Powell cited a “good ways to go” on the balance-sheet runoff, and said commercial real estate doesn’t threaten financial stability.
“The key takeaway from his testimony is the Fed’s assessment of the balance of risks is shifting in ways that – if supported and sustained by incoming data – will deliver a rate cut in September,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
The S&P 500 climbed 1% — up for a seventh straight day — to notch its 37th record this year.
Gold and silver mining stocks rallied on Fed easing bets.
Banks underperformed.
Google parent Alphabet Inc. has shelved efforts to acquire HubSpot Inc., according to people with knowledge of the matter.
US 10-year yields fell two basis points to 4.28%.
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said the timing of a rate cut is still an “open question,” prompting traders to pare bets on August cut.
Oil rose as a US holiday boosted demand for gasoline and jet fuel.
“Markets remain remarkably calm despite the flood of data this week, including Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, CPI/PPI reports, and the beginning of earnings season,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
The so-called core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs and is seen as a better measure of underlying inflation, is expected to rise 0.2% in June for a second month.
That would mark the smallest back-to-back gains since August — a pace more palatable for Fed officials.
“June’s CPI report looks to be another ‘very good’ report that should boost the FOMC’s confidence about the inflation trajectory,” said Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics. “That should set the stage for the Fed to start cutting rates in September.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows 55% of investors expect the market reaction Thursday’s CPI to be “risk-on,” 16% said “risk-off” and 29% “mixed/negligible.”
“There is optimism about inflation generally,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V, adding that the survey also showed investors think “CPI is on a Fed-friendly glide path.”
Meantime, some trading desks say investors should gear up for a potential break in the eerie calm that’s recently descended on the market.
The options market is betting the S&P 500 Index will move 0.8% in either direction after Thursday’s report on consumer prices, based on the price of that day’s at-the-money straddles, according to Stuart Kaiser, Citigroup’s head of US equity trading strategy.
If it happens, that would be the biggest move for the index since June 12, the day of the last CPI print and interest-rate decision.
Market volatility may pick up in the days and weeks ahead, amid US political uncertainty, comments from the Fed chair, and the start of the second-quarter earnings season, according to Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
For the first time since 2022, S&P 500 earnings may not be laser-focused on just technology, with the quarter’s success hanging on everything aside from the mega-cap tech heavyweights that have driven stocks to all-time highs, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategists led by Gina Martin Adams.
“While forecasts for the ‘Magnificent Seven’ remain robust, their earnings are expected to slow in the second quarter — just as the rest of the S&P 500 may finally post their first year-on-year growth in at least five quarters,” they noted.
The Magnificent Seven may have already peaked, while the remaining S&P 500 stocks may post their first earnings expansion in at least six quarters, the strategists concluded.

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. has avoided the threat of a lengthy European Union antitrust probe into its cloud business after it brokered a deal with an Amazon.com Inc.-backed trade lobby that had complained about its software license agreements.
* Intuit Inc. is cutting 1,800 employees, swapping out low performers and executives with fresh hires meant to sharpen the company’s focus on products that use artificial intelligence.
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc. agreed to buy Silo AI for $665 million in cash, adding a maker of artificial intelligence models that will help its push to close the gap on Nvidia Corp.
* Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. — working to put an accounting scandal behind it — hired a 3M Co. executive to oversee its finances and help restore its credibility with shareholders.
* The US Federal Trade Commission is preparing a lawsuit against the three largest drug middlemen over their use of rebates for insulin and other drugs, according to a person familiar with the probe.
* Honeywell International Inc. agreed to buy Air Products and Chemicals Inc.’s liquefied natural gas process technology and equipment business for $1.81 billion in cash.

Key events this week:
* US CPI, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Alberto Musalem speak, Thursday
* China trade, Friday
* University of Michigan consumer sentiment, US PPI, Friday
* Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo’s earnings, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0829
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2846
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 161.74 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $57,424.76
* Ether rose 1.2% to $3,108.05
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.13%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $82.40 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,372.14 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Richard Henderson, Joel Leon and Jessica Menton.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It ain’t about how hard you hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. -Sylvester Stallone (as Rocky Balboa), b. 1946.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
June 9, 2004 A Senate Intelligence Committee report concluded the CIA had provided unfounded assessments of the threat posed by Iraq that the Bush administration relied on to justify going to war. Go to article >>

Martyrdom of the Bab: Baha’i.

July 9, 1893: First successful open-heart surgery.
Nicola Tesla,  inventor, b.1856.
Otto Respighi, composer, b. 1879.
Tom Hanks, actor, b. 1956.

List of world’s 10 best airports includes Salt Lake City, surprisingly
The billionaire heiress emerging as the next US tennis star
Despite being set to inherit a fortune, this 23-year-old athlete is determined to make her own name in professional tennis.

‘The last 12 months have broken records like never before’: Earth exceeds 1.5 C warming every month for entire year
Every month has broken the temperature record of the previous for the past 12 months, and the signs of climate breakdown are already here, a new analysis shows. Read More.

5,000-year-old ceremonial temple discovered beneath sand dune in Peru
The 5,000-year-old site contains the walls of a ceremonial temple, as well as human remains. Read More.

‘Dragon’ and ‘tree of life’ hydrothermal vents discovered in Arctic region scientists thought was geologically dead
Researchers have discovered a deep-sea hydrothermal vent field near Svalbard. The newfound vents have been named after various entities from Norse mythology. Read More.

‘I’ve never seen anything like this’: Scientists hijack cancer genes to turn tumors against themselves
Scientists overcame cancer drug resistance in a new proof-of-concept study. Read More.

James Webb telescope reveals rare, ‘rotten egg’ atmosphere around nearby hell planet
The James Webb Space Telescope revealed that the hot Jupiter exoplanet HD 189733 b, located just 64 light-years from Earth, has an atmosphere full of hydrogen sulfide, meaning it likely smells of rotten eggs. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, England
Pumpkin (2024), a new large-scale sculpture by the Japanese artist Yayoi Kusama, is installed by the Round Pond in Kensington Gardens as part of the Serpentine gallery’s public art presentations.
Photograph: David Levene/The Guardian

Wimbledon, England
A fake owl is positioned to keep pigeons away from the grounds on day nine of the Wimbledon championships at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.
Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA

​​​​​​​Campo Tures, Italy
Natural Connection: OLM Nature Escape Eco-Aparthotel by Andreas Gruber Architects.
Photograph: Manuel Kottersteger/World Architecture Festival
Market Closes for July 9^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39291.97	-52.82
		-0.13%
S&P 500	5576.98	+4.13
		+0.07%
NASDAQ	18429.29	+25.55
		+0.14%
TSX	22042.50	-83.63
		-0.38%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41580.17	+799.47
		+1.96%
HANG SENG	17523.23	-0.83
		—
SENSEX	80351.64	+391.26
		+0.49%
FTSE 100*	8139.81	-53.68
		-0.66%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.490	3.473
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.420	3.403
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2959	4.2783
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4881	4.4646

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7335	0.7337
US $	1.3633	1.3630

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4745	0.6782
US $	1.0816	0.9246

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2376.65	2376.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	81.41	82.33

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1932, the public’s interest in the stock market hit rock bottom. The day’s total volume on the New York Stock Exchange dropped to a modern record low of just 235,000 shares.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 22,042.50 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.9%.
Badger Infrastructure Solutions Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 6.5%.
Today, 150 of 226 shares fell, while 70 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.3% below its 52-week high on May 21, 2024 and 17.9% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.4% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.52t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.62% compared with 11.65% in the previous session and the average of 10.99% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -36.0329| -0.9| 8/32
Industrials | -34.6681| -1.1| 4/24
Information Technology | -15.6971| -0.9| 4/6
Materials | -4.6393| -0.2| 23/27
Consumer Discretionary | -3.8224| -0.5| 3/10
Communication Services | -3.7500| -0.6| 0/4
Utilities | -1.7175| -0.2| 5/10
Real Estate | -1.3049| -0.3| 4/15
Health Care | -0.3109| -0.5| 0/3
Consumer Staples | 1.2039| 0.1| 4/7
Financials | 17.0904| 0.3| 15/12
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -15.0400| -1.9| -47.8| -12.6
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -14.0800| -2.0| -54.5| 2.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -11.0900| -1.5| -63.1| 11.3
TD Bank | 3.7150| 0.4| 79.0| -11.0
National Bank of Canada | 3.9670| 1.5| 51.3| 11.0
Bank of Nova Scotia| 5.0700| 1.0| -14.2| -3.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks closed at all-time highs, with Jerome Powell’s remarks to Congress doing little to alter bets the Federal Reserve will be able to cut interest rates this year.
Financial shares the led gains on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up for a sixth straight session — its longest winning run since January.
Shorter-term Treasuries outperformed on bets they would more likely benefit from policy easing.
Powell was careful not to offer a timeline for rate cuts.
However, he emphasized mounting signs of a cooling job market after government data showed a third straight month of rising unemployment.
“The rhetoric today continued to move toward preparing the market for a cut in rates later this year,” said Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “Powell largely stuck to the script when it came to the economy, and many questions weren’t about the economy, but instead about Basel endgame.”
Powell said regulators are close to agreeing to change their plan to force big banks to hold significantly more capital – a major win for Wall Street lenders.
The overhaul is tied to Basel III, an international accord that followed the 2008 financial crisis and is intended to prevent bank failures and another crunch.
The S&P 500 hit its 36th record this year.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. climbed.
Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. led mega-cap tech higher.
Oracle Corp. sank as Elon Musk said his artificial-intelligence startup would rely less on cloud technology from the software maker.
Treasuries pared losses after a solid $58 billion sale of three-year notes, though a rout in European bonds kept a lid on the market.
Swap traders continued to project two rate cuts in 2024.

Wall Street’s Reaction to Powell:
* Peter Boockvar at The Boock Report:
Jay Powell is maintaining his more balanced view on the economic outlook and the two mandates they focus on — but with a window towards easing. I’m becoming more confident that the Fed cuts in September.
* Krishna Guha at Evercore:
While some might have been hoping for a stronger rate-cut signal, we read his comments in particular on the evolving balance of risks as dovish and see him as continuing to lay the foundations for a potential September cut provided incoming data – in particular Thursday’s inflation report – sustain and support the Fed’s evolving assessment.
* Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities:
Powell was a lot more neutral than the market was anticipating. We expect similar testimony tomorrow, with a big potential move in rates after CPI Thursday.
* Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets:
The US rates market bear-steepened in a move that was more about a supply concession than anything Powell said (or didn’t say).  The Chair stuck to the script. The market shrugged off any slightly dovish skew and quickly shifted focus to the looming supply – with a nod to the fact a greater curve concession could be on offer.
* Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley:
Chairman Powell acknowledged that keeping interest rates elevated for too long could jeopardize the economy and the labor market, which may have cheered investors eager for the Fed to cut rates. But he also repeated his mantra that the Fed is still waiting for more evidence that inflation is cooling reliably before it acts.
* Peter Williams at 22V Research:
Powell keeps the ship steady. Chair Powell’s prepared testimony struck a balanced tone.  September remains modal, if notably more tentative than priced currently. But with the Fed balancing risks, upside surprises to labor market or inflation data could delay the first cut.
* Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics:
These are the clearest signals to date that the FOMC is close to cutting rates. With three more inflation reports due before the September FOMC meeting, we think the Fed will have enough confidence by then to cut.
* Stephen Brown at Capital Economics:
Powell leaves all options open.  The neutral tone of the opening statement seems at odds with the softer tone of the recent activity data, so our sense is that a September interest rate cut remains very much in suspense.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the labor market is no longer driving inflation in the US economy to the extent it was earlier in the pandemic recovery, echoing earlier comments by Powell.
Investors should brace themselves for a bout of stock market volatility this week after a lengthy period of calm, based on a warning from JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk.
The options market is betting the S&P 500 will move by 0.9% in either direction by Thursday, based on the price of at-the-money straddles expiring that day, according to Andrew Tyler, the trading desk’s head of US market intelligence.
The latest consumer price index will be reported prior to that session, which could trigger a move with traders betting on easing inflation driving the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2024.
Risk-taking traders are keeping a close eye on a heuristic recession indicator known as the Sahm rule after the latest jobs data.
The rule was conceived just a few years ago in 2019, but it has accurately indicated the start of a recession since 1970.
With US stocks hovering near all-time highs and traders eyeing rate cuts this year, the prospects of a recession has tapered off as hopes for a soft-landing mount.
But any sign of cracks in the labor market could challenge that confidence, forcing traders to reconsider their positions.
Wall Street has tilted toward the tech sector to a historic degree, raising the stakes should the artificial intelligence-fueled rally falter.
Valuations are stretched, while earnings growth is poised to slow from here.
That adds to uncertainty for investors betting that Big Tech’s rally will continue, according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley’s wealth management unit, who warns of “stretched momentum, weak breadth and complacency” in the market.
The rally in artificial-intelligence stocks may show little sign of flagging, but a historical review suggests it’s time to take profit in the biggest names, according to strategists at Citigroup Inc. led by Drew Pettit.
Sentiment toward AI-exposed equities is the strongest since 2019 and free cash flow at the bulk of those firms is forecast to outstrip analyst expectations, they said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. delivered 44 commercial aircraft in June, the highest monthly total since the company curbed work in its factories in the wake of a harrowing near-miss in early January involving a 737 Max jetliner.
* Volkswagen AG lowered its margin outlook for the year, citing costs related to a potential Audi plant closure in Belgium after disappointing demand for some electric vehicles and other unplanned expenses.
* Kroger Co. released the full list of stores, distribution centers and plants it plans to divest to secure regulatory approval for the proposed merger with Albertsons Cos.
* Pershing Square has started a roadshow for the initial public offering of a US closed-end vehicle, which could be the largest fund of its kind in the US.
* Pfizer Inc. is planning to replace its top scientist after a more than 15-year career in charge of the company’s drug pipeline.
* BP Plc warned of “significantly lower” refining margins and predicted a write-down on the value of a plant in Germany of $1 billion to $2 billion.

Key events this week:
* China PPI, CPI, Wednesday
* Jerome Powell testifies to the House Financial Services Committee, Wednesday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook speak, Wednesday
* US CPI, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Alberto Musalem speak, Thursday
* China trade, Friday
* University of Michigan consumer sentiment, US PPI, Friday
* Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo’s earnings, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0814
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2789
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 161.29 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.9% to $57,879.13
* Ether rose 2.4% to $3,068.56
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.29%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.58%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.16%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $81.57 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,363.93 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Sujata Rao, Aya Wagatsuma, Matthew Burgess, Sagarika Jaisinghani and Jessica Menton.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Always turn a negative situation into a positive situation. -Michael Jordan, b.1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
Festa dos Tabuleiros, Portugal.

July 8, 1889: The Wall Street Journal was first published. Go to article >>

John D. Rockefeller, financier, b. 1839.
Elisabeth Kubler-Ross, writer, b. 1926.
Anjelica Huston, actress., b. 1951.
Anna Quindlen, writer, b. 1953.

Paris’ famous Moulin Rouge windmill gets its blades back
Paris’ iconic Moulin Rouge windmill has been fitted with new blades, nearly three months after they fell off the landmark back in April.

Archaeologists find marble god statue in ancient Roman sewer
Bulgarian archaeologists stumbled across this well-preserved marble statue depicting the Greek god Hermes

Tearful Lewis Hamilton wins British Grand Prix
The 39-year-old was emotional Sunday after securing another Grand Prix win. Read about his impressive victory on the rain-slicked track at Silverstone.

When your home becomes a tourist attraction
What happens when a private residence becomes an Instagram hot spot? Some residents told CNN what it’s like to own a home that is rich in history.

Cats love to meow at humans. Now we know why.
Meows are more than a cute sound — they’re also a window into the relationship between humans and their feline friends. Read More.

‘This is what drives the migraine headache’: Scientists uncover ‘missing link’ in why some migraines happen
A new mouse study uncovered a previously unknown route between the brain and peripheral nerves that could explain the link between aura symptoms and migraine headaches. Read More.

Forbidden black holes and ancient stars hide in these ‘tiny red dots’
The James Webb Space Telescope found “tiny red dots” in the early universe representing overgrown supermassive black holes and stars that are impossibly old for the infant cosmos. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Yamanote line trains passing each other at Takanawa Gateway station

Los Olivos, California, US
People play polo as the Lake Fire burns in Los Padres National Forest
Photograph: Mario Tama/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Syria
A youth gathers reeds harvested from the marshlands in Raqqa province
Photograph: Delil Souleiman/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 8^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39344.79	-31.08
		-0.08%
S&P 500	5572.85	+5.66
		+0.10%
NASDAQ	18403.74	+50.98
		+0.28%
TSX	22126.13	+67.10
		+0.30%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40780.70	-131.67
		-0.32%
HANG SENG	17524.06	-275.55
		-1.55%
SENSEX	79960.38	-36.22
		-0.05%
FTSE 100*	8193.49	-10.44
		-0.13%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.473	3.499
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.403	3.431
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2783	4.2784
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4646	4.4768

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7337	0.7335
US $	1.3630	1.3633

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4765	0.6773
US $	1.0830	0.9233

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2376.65	2358.65
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.33	83.88

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1889, the first issue of The Wall Street Journal was published by Charles Henry Dow, Edward Davis Jones and Charles M. Bergstresser.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3% at 22,126.13 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.8%.
Constellation Software Inc/Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
Lundin Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 5.3%.
Today, 156 of 226 shares rose, while 68 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.9% below its 52-week high on May 21, 2024 and 18.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and rose 0.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 on a trailing basis and 15 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.51t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.65% compared with 11.63% in the previous session and the average of 10.96% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 47.2928| 0.7| 23/4
Consumer Staples | 11.7522| 1.2| 7/4
Information Technology | 11.0359| 0.6| 8/2
Real Estate | 7.5613| 1.7| 19/1
Consumer Discretionary | 7.0878| 0.9| 11/2
Communication Services | 3.3060| 0.5| 3/2
Utilities | 1.1932| 0.1| 11/4
Health Care | 0.8452| 1.3| 4/0
Industrials | -0.1126| 0.0| 19/9
Energy | -10.2910| -0.3| 22/17
Materials | -12.5709| -0.5| 29/23
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Constellation Software | 9.5600| 1.7| -44.2| 23.2
RBC | 8.7990| 0.6| 29.0| 11.3
TD Bank | 7.9260| 0.9| 7.6| -11.4
Cameco | -4.6770| -2.3| 88.5| 16.4
Canadian National | -6.0020| -0.9| -35.1| -4.4
Teck Resources | -7.0450| -3.2| -16.9| 18.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks closed at all-time highs in a cautious session that saw traders gearing up for Jerome Powell’s testimony to US lawmakers and the start of the earnings season.
With a mere 0.1% advance, the S&P 500 notched its 35^th record this year.
Some of the largest American banks will unofficially kick off the second-quarter reporting season Friday — and growth expectations are quite lofty.
Analysts’ upgrades to profit estimates have outnumbered downgrades.
At the same time, forecasts for 12-month forward earnings stand at an all-time high.
John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management said a robust earnings outlook and a resilient economy could support higher valuations.
He raised his year-end S&P 500 target to 5,900.
At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Scott Rubner says the bar for corporate results is high — with lofty expectations already baked in.
“As earnings season kicks off this week, investors should be prepared to see some ‘choppiness,’ but the market will likely climb back up again once companies resume buybacks,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
The S&P 500 topped 5,570.
Nvidia Corp. climbed as UBS Group AG raised its target.
More than 2,600 Boeing Co. 737 jets registered in the US will need to have their oxygen generators inspected.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. said another of its Boeing aircraft lost a main landing gear wheel while taking off.
Broadcom Inc. is borrowing $5 billion in the investment-grade market.
Shorter-term Treasuries underperformed longer ones.
Bitcoin slid on concern about possible sales of the token by creditors of the failed Mt. Gox exchange.
The lack of a clear winner in the French elections spurred speculation there’s unlikely to be major policy changes amid political gridlock.
Meantime, US President Joe Biden pledged to fellow Democrats he’ll remain in the presidential race.
Traders should brace for a correction in the stock market as uncertainty swirls around corporate earnings, Fed policy and the US presidential campaign, according to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson.
The third quarter is “going to be choppy,” Wilson told Bloomberg Television.
“This rally has continued despite growing concerns about the economy, political uncertainty, sticky inflation and lack of clarity about timing of first rate cut,” said Megan Horneman at Verdence Capital Advisors. “Therefore, we would not rule out at least a 10% correction in the S&P 500 in the second half of the year. Especially when we see future earnings expectations get more realistic.”
For the past two years, a small cohort of companies have contributed to the bulk of the gauge’s return: The S&P 500 has gained roughly 55% since the lows of October 2022 — but 58% of that advance has come from just the top 10 stocks in the benchmark, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“S&P 500 earnings growth will likely continue for the next year at a respectable pace,” said Nicholas Colas at DataTrek.
“Moreover, those improvements should be broad-based rather than in just a few tech-heavy sectors. All this adds up to continued strength in US large caps.”
The S&P 500 is in its 11th-longest stretch without a 2% down day since 1928, according to Ed Clissold at Ned Davis Research.
“The end of previous long streaks has been followed by mixed returns, but not the end of the bull market, on average,” he noted. “Never (OK, rarely) short a dull market.”
Clissold also noted that this is one of the “hardest bull markets” for stock pickers in the last 50 years.
“What makes the current cycle unique is that so few stocks are driving returns, providing fewer opportunities for stock pickers to outperform than during previous low vol streaks,” he concluded.
Aside from the corporate world, traders will continue focused on the Federal Reserve outlook.
Powell will face pressure this week from lawmakers growing impatient for the Fed to cut rates and others who are unhappy with its latest plan to boost capital requirements for Wall Street lenders.
The Fed chair heads to Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday for his semiannual testimony.
Also the June consumer price index data due Thursday will be a highlight.
The so-called core CPI, which is seen as a better measure of underlying inflation, is expected to show the smallest back-to-back gains since August, a pace more palatable for Fed officials.
“While the CPI release will be key, we will be looking for signs from Powell that the Fed is edging closer to a decision to cash in its chips and move in September provided ongoing inflation news broadly confirms that the run-rate has stepped back down,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
US consumers’ near-term inflation expectations fell for a second straight month, a Fed Bank of New York survey showed.
If US inflation moderates without collateral damage to the economy, the resulting Fed easing cycle could be a tailwind for risk assets, according to Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds at Glenmede.
“Synchronized global easing cycles have historically been a bullish signal for equities in the short-to-medium term,” they noted.
The S&P 500 has posted forward returns of 9.9% in the 12 months immediately following periods of 40–60% of global central banks easing policy, Glenmede said.
That number increases to 18.7% in the 80–100% tranche — suggesting that equities could benefit if more central banks hop on the easing bandwagon.
“The Fed is closing in on rate cuts, as the US economy moderates,” according to Principal Asset Management strategists.
“We expect cuts in September and December, but that will require additional evidence of a slowdown.”
Bond markets appear to be beginning the back half of 2024 with a long bias, as economic data weakens and we approach rate cuts in the fall, according to Thomas Tzitzouris at Strategas.
Despite the long positioning, there are preliminary signs of shorts coming back, he noted.
“When we break down the positioning data, we see a market that despite showing a long bias in anticipation of cuts, is not fully convinced this will occur with shorts slowly returning to the market,” Tzitzouris said.

Corporate Highlights:
* Boeing Co. is discussing a potential path forward with the US Defense Department to preserve its government contract business after the company agreed to plead guilty to a criminal charge tied to two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jet, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
* Microsoft Corp. told employees in China that starting in September they’ll only be able to use iPhones for work.
* Exxon Mobil Corp. expects refining profits to drop due to lower margins across the industry, reducing earnings estimates for the second quarter.
* Southwest Airlines Co., which is facing demands for sweeping leadership and business changes from activist Elliott Investment Management, has named aviation industry veteran Rakesh Gangwal to its board.
* Airbus SE logged its best monthly deliveries so far this year as the plane maker works to resolve its supply-chain woes and pares back its order backlog.
* Eli Lilly & Co. agreed to buy U.S. gut-drug maker Morphic Holding Inc. for about $3.2 billion.
* Devon Energy Corp. agreed to acquire the Williston Basin business of EnCap Investments LP’s Grayson Mill Energy for $5 billion.
* Paramount Global agreed to merge with Skydance Media in a deal that hands control of the storied Hollywood studio to producer David Ellison.
* Lucid Group Inc. beat expectations for quarterly production and deliveries, shaking off concerns about a slowdown in the electric-vehicle market.

Key events this week:
* China aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans, Tuesday
* Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, Tuesday
* US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies to the House Financial Services Committee, Tuesday
* Fed’s Michael Barr and Michelle Bowman speak, Tuesday
* China PPI, CPI, Wednesday
* Jerome Powell testifies to the House Financial Services Committee, Wednesday
* Fed’s Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook speak, Wednesday
* US CPI, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Alberto Musalem speak, Thursday
* China trade, Friday
* University of Michigan consumer sentiment, US PPI, Friday
* Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo’s earnings, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0824
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2809
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 160.79 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.4% to $56,460.6
* Ether rose 0.2% to $3,004.78
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.27%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.54%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.11%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $82.25 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.4% to $2,359.27 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher, Juliette Laffont, Catherine Bosley, Matthew Burgess, Vildana Hajric, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Alexandra Semenova and Natalia Kniazhevich.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Never confuse a single failure with a  final defeat. –F. Scott Fitzgerald, 1896-1940.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
Tynwald Day – Viking mid-summer day, Isle of Man
Venezuela Independence Day.
July 5, 1975: Arthur Ashe became the first African-American man to win a Wimbledon singles title as he defeated Jimmy Connors. Go to article >>
July 5, 1996: World’s first live cloned mammal is born.  Dolly (a sheep) was cloned using cells from an adult sheep.

1946: Fist bikini swimsuit modeled by Parisian dancer Michele Bernadini at Piscine Molitor, Paris, France.
P.T. Barnum , circus promoter, b.1810.

Missing pieces of 6th-century Byzantine bucket finally found at Sutton Hoo
Archaeologists at Sutton Hoo, a 1,400-year-old boat burial in England, have discovered pieces of a broken bucket from the Byzantine Empire. Read More.

Computer inspired by Japanese art of paper-cutting has no electronics and stores data in tiny cubes
The new mechanical computer uses 64 physical cubes to represent binary bits and is inspired by kirigami — the Japanese art of paper-folding and cutting. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Pulwama, India
Kashmiri children look out from their home on a hot summer day
Photograph: Faisal Bashir/SOPA Images/Rex/Shutterstock

Bulgan province , Mongolia
A horse rolls in the grass
Photograph: Héctor Retamal/AFP/Getty Images

New York City
The Macy’s 4 July fireworks form a backdrop to the Manhattan skyline
Photograph: Adam Gray/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 5^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39375.87	+67.87
		+0.17%
S&P 500	5567.19	+30.17
		+0.54%
NASDAQ	18352.76	+164.46
		+0.90%
TSX	22059.03	-184.99
		-0.83%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40912.37	-1.28
		—
HANG SENG	17799.61	-228.67
		-1.27%
SENSEX	79996.60	-53.07
		-0.07%
FTSE 100*	8203.93	-37.33
		-0.45%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.499	3.608
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.431	3.510
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2784	N.A.
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4768	N.A.

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7335	0.7346
US $	1.3633	1.3614

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4792	0.6760
US $	1.0849	0.9217

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2358.65	2361.35
Oil
WTI Crude Future	83.88	83.88

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1991, regulators in seven countries staged a coordinated strike to seize the Bank of Credit & Commerce International. BCCI operated in more than 70 countries, and counted drug traffickers, terrorists and crooked politicians among its clients. Former Manhattan District Attorney Robert Morgenthau called BCCI “the largest bank fraud in world financial history.”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.8% at 22,059.03 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.2% on June 13 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Suncor Energy Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.6%.
Kelt Exploration Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 5.6%.
Today, 173 of 226 shares fell, while 50 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 0.8%
* The index advanced 9.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 24% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.2% below its 52-week high on May 21, 2024 and 18% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.54t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.63% compared with 11.49% in the previous session and the average of 10.92% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -71.9464| -1.1| 1/26
Energy | -71.1381| -1.8| 0/41
Industrials | -33.3679| -1.1| 1/26
Utilities | -9.5702| -1.1| 4/10
Consumer Discretionary | -5.0516| -0.6| 2/11
Information Technology | -4.7273| -0.3| 1/9
Real Estate | -3.5076| -0.8| 3/17
Consumer Staples | -0.3931| 0.0| 4/7
Health Care | 0.0371| 0.1| 1/2
Communication Services | 0.8144| 0.1| 2/3
Materials | 13.8765| 0.5| 31/21
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Suncor Energy | -17.3400| -3.6| -42.0| 21.3
RBC | -13.3500| -0.9| 36.7| 10.6
Canadian Natural Resources | -11.5400| -1.6| -64.0| 13.0
Wheaton Precious Metals | 4.4670| 1.9| -22.1| 16.3
Agnico Eagle Mines | 5.7580| 1.8| -13.2| 31.0
Shopify | 6.9300| 0.9| -28.4| -10.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market ended the week at all-time highs, with traders looking past signals of a slowdown in the world’s largest economy to focus on prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
In a post-holiday session marked by thin volume, the S&P 500 notched its 34th record this year.
Equities rebounded, following a series of twists and turns in the immediate aftermath of data showing US hiring moderated as the jobless rate hit the highest since 2021.
Treasury yields tumbled.
Swaps fully projected two Fed reductions in 2024 starting in November — and Wall Street bets have been building around a September rate cut.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 206,000 in June and job growth in the prior two months was revised down by 111,000.
The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 190,000 increase.
The unemployment rate climbed to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings cooled.
“Get on with it,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research. “Today’s employment report ought to firm up expectations of a September rate cut. Economic conditions are cooling and that makes the trade-offs different for the Fed.”
The S&P 500 topped 5,565.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%.
Meta Platforms Inc. jumped almost 6%.
Macy’s Inc. surged on a news report about a sweetened buyout offer.
Banks got hit — though JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. are expected kick off the industry’s earnings season next week on a bright note.
Treasury 10-year yields fell eight basis points to 4.28%.
The dollar extended its weekly drop.
Bitcoin sank.
The pound climbed after Keir Starmer’s Labour party swept to a landslide election win.
“The job market is bending without yet breaking, which boosts the argument for rate cuts,” said David Russell at TradeStation. “Things are not too hot and not too cold.  Goldilocks is here and September is in play.”
In the run-up to the jobs report, bond funds recorded about $19 billion in weekly inflows, the biggest additions since February 2021, according to a note from Bank of America Corp. citing EPFR Global data.
The trend suggests investors are “locking in peak yields,”  BofA strategist Michael Hartnett wrote.
Global equity funds recorded inflows of $10.9 billion — the longest winning streak since December 2021, the data showed.
The gradual loosening up of a very tight labor market is consistent with the Fed’s “immaculate disinflation narrative” and should give officials confidence to lower rates sometime in the second half, according to Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
He still sees a first cut in November — but says the path to a September reduction got “a little wider.”
To Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, the latest jobs data suggest the labor market is slowing — maybe not enough to speed up rate cuts, but perhaps enough to keep the Fed on track for September.
At Apollo Global Management, Torsten Slok’s view remains unchanged — no Fed cuts in 2024.
He says the jobs report confirms that it is going to take time for the Fed to cool down the economy and inflation.
“Looking ahead, the key discussion in markets will be whether this cooling will accelerate to the downside because of still-elevated costs of financing. Or whether we will see a reaccelerating economy because of high stock prices and tight credit spreads,” Slok noted.
After the jobs data comes Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who on Tuesday will deliver his semi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill.
Then the consumer-price index is issued on Thursday.
“If next week’s CPI is cooperative, the case for a September cut will be that much stronger,” said Chris Low at FHN Financial.
“The Fed remains the biggest risk to the market,” said Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research. “Recession risks are low, earnings growth is improving and economic data point to the Fed cutting rates this year, but if there’s a negative surprise, then stocks are vulnerable to a bigger pullback, given the already strong rally in the first half of this year.”
Strong seasonality is colliding with a slew of market-moving events over the next few trading sessions will be key catalysts in determining whether this year’s stock rally powers even higher — or stalls — as traders enter the best stretch of the year for equities.
Since 1928, the first 10 trading days of July have historically been the strongest period for the S&P 500, with the benchmark stocks gauge advancing 1.5% on average, rising nearly 70% of the time, according to Bank of America Corp.

Corporate Highlights:
* ConocoPhillips sued to block a Biden administration ban on drilling across nearly half the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, claiming the measure violates a federal law that compels oil development there.
* SunPower Corp. tumbled after the struggling solar company’s accountant quit amid allegations of misconduct by senior executives.
* Canada has approved Glencore Plc’s $6.9-billion acquisition of Teck Resources Ltd.’s metallurgical coal business, while the latter announced a $2 billion share buyback and pledged to boost copper output.
* Samsung Electronics Co. posted its fastest pace of sales and profit growth in years, reflecting a recovery in memory chip demand as AI development accelerates globally.
* BBVA SA’s investors voted to support the lender’s bid for rival Banco Sabadell SA, allowing Chairman Carlos Torres to clear one hurdle in his attempt to create a domestic banking giant.
* Shell Plc expects as much as $2 billion of impairments in its second-quarter earnings related to a delayed biofuels plant under construction in the Netherlands and its chemicals facility in Singapore.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0840
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2816
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 160.77 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $56,478.81
* Ether fell 5% to $2,985.12
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.56%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.12%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $83.10 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.4% to $2,388.72 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jessica Menton, John Viljoen, Divya Patil and Richard Henderson.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Nobody can go back and start a new beginning, but anyone can start today and make a new ending. -Maria Robinson, 1775-1818.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
Carolann is away from the office; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

Independence Day: On July 4, 1776, the Second Continental Congress unanimously adopted the Declaration of Independence, announcing the colonies’ separation from Great Britain.

How Did the Bald Eagle Become America’s National Bird?
Long considered a symbol of strength, the predatory bird first appeared on the national seal in 1782.

James Webb Space Telescope celebrates Independence Day by showcasing dazzling ‘cosmic fireworks’ 460 light-years away
NASA celebrates the Fourth of July with a dazzling image of an erupting baby star. Read more.

NASA’s Juno probe reveals ‘fire-breathing’ lava lakes across Jupiter’s volcanic moon Io
New infrared images showcase “fire-breathing” lakes all across the surface of Jupiter’s volcanic moon Io. Read more.

Rare, mystery blasts from sun can devastate the ozone layer and spike radiation levels on Earth
The vibrant auroras from earlier this year have a darker side that scientists are still uncovering. Read more.

How popcorn was discovered nearly 7,000 years ago
An archaeologist explains the food’s likely appeal for people in the Americas millennia ago. Read more.

A cave drawing of human figures and a pig is the world’s oldest known narrative art
Up a rocky cliff face, through a narrow opening, and at the end of a snaking passage lies a painting that archaeologists say is the world’s oldest known example of storytelling in art history. Read more.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Nantes, France
Le Rêve de Fitzcarraldo (Fitzcarraldo’s Dream) by the Brazilian artist Henrique Oliveira is displayed in front of the Nantes Opera House as part of the Voyage à Nantes art festival, which runs until 8 September
Photograph: Loïc Venance/AFP/Getty Images

A Clear Welcome | Laguna de los Tres, Patagonia, Argentina
Photographer Francesco Dall’Olmo: ‘This was the first photo I took in Patagonia. Contrary to expectations of cold, rain, and wind, our initial encounter with these landscapes was unusual:
nearly three days of clear skies. Reaching the lagoon around 7am, I immediately captured shots of the sky. Shortly afterward, I photographed the foreground, where twilight had already set in.
This clear welcome gifted me with a rare photo of Mount Fitz Roy framed by the Milky Way arch’
Photograph: Francesco Dall’Olmo/2024 Milky Way photographer of the year

Tallinn, Estonia
A bee-fly feeds on flower nectar in a forest outside the capital
Photograph: Sergei Grits/AP
Market Closes for July 4^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	Market Closed	N.A.
S&P 500	Market Closed	N.A.
NASDAQ	Market Closed	N.A.
TSX	22244.02	+20.35
		+0.09%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40913.65	+332.89
		+0.82%
HANG SENG	18028.28	+49.71
		+0.28%
SENSEX	80049.67	+62.87
		+0.08%
FTSE 100*	8241.26	+70.14
		+0.86%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.608	3.565
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.510	3.466
U.S.    10 Year Bond	N.A.	4.3587
U.S. 30 Year Bond	N.A.	4.5278

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7346	0.7333
US $	1.3614	1.3638

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4719	0.6794
US $	1.0812	0.9249

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2361.35	2331.75
Oil
WTI Crude Future	83.88	82.81

Market Commentary:
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 22,244.02 in Toronto.
Waste Connections Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 0.9%.
Filo Corp. had the largest increase, rising 2.4%.
Today, 142 of 226 shares rose, while 72 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.7%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Dec. 22
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.4% below its 52-week high on May 21, 2024 and 19% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.1% in the past 5 days and rose 1.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.53t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.49% compared with 11.66% in the previous session and the average of 10.88% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 9.1499| 0.2| 33/6
Materials | 6.4739| 0.2| 35/12
Communication Services | 4.1764| 0.6| 5/0
Utilities | 3.4705| 0.4| 11/4
Consumer Discretionary | 1.7080| 0.2| 10/3
Consumer Staples | 1.1169| 0.1| 7/4
Industrials | 0.6197| 0.0| 11/17
Health Care | 0.3679| 0.6| 4/0
Real Estate | 0.3176| 0.1| 9/8
Information Technology | -1.7833| -0.1| 7/3
Financials | -5.2486| -0.1| 10/15
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Waste Connections | 4.0390| 0.9| -51.2| 23.4
RBC | 3.3610| 0.2| -51.1| 11.6
Manulife Financial | 1.8820| 0.4| -86.5| 25.4
TD Bank | -2.1050| -0.2| -35.1| -11.4
Shopify | -3.9720| -0.5| -86.9| -11.4
Brookfield Corp | -4.6930| -0.8| -93.5| 10.5
US
The US market is closed for the 4th of July.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shabnam
“ The triumph can’t be had without the struggle.”– Wilma Glodean Rudolph

Shabnam Mohammadpourmarzbali
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.

340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC  V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Dog Days: hottest days of he year July 3 – August 11.
July 3, 1886: Karl Benz drives the first ever automobile (for the first time in public) in Mannheim, Germany.
July 3, 1985: The time-travel comedy “Back to the Future,” starring Michael J. Fox and Christopher Lloyd, was released in movie theaters. Go to article >>

The Milky Way will be visible without a telescope this summer. Here are the key nights to watch for.
Summer is the best time to see the Milky Way in the Northern Hemisphere without a telescope. The key is to find clear, dark skies on moonless nights. Read More.

Bionic legs plugged directly into nervous system enable unprecedented ‘level of brain control’
A first-of-its-kind study demonstrated that a new nervous system-controlled bionic leg helps leg amputees walk more naturally than traditional prosthesis. Read More.

Get ready for the most extravagant wedding of the year
The son of Asia’s richest man is getting married this month in one of the most anticipated — and lavish — weddings of 2024. The pre-wedding bash in March already included a massive drone show and performance by Rihanna.

Novak Djokovic celebrates a win at Wimbledon
The 37-year-old tennis star won his first match at Wimbledon less than a month after undergoing surgery for a torn meniscus.

Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese are named to the WNBA All-Star team
This marks the first time that two rookies are WNBA All-Stars in the same season since 2014.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Beijing, China
A tourist takes a selfie against the blooming wildflowers and sunflowers in the Olympic Forest Park
Photograph: Vincent Thian/AP

Whitewater, Kansas, US
‘It has been a stormy spring in the central United States. These mammatus clouds followed a strong storm that passed over our Kansas farm.’
Photograph: Jason Schmidt

Brighton, UK
‘The passengers of the Brighton British Airways i360 were in for a spectacular treat tonight, as the nearly full moon was rising in the east over the south coast.’
Photograph: Manja Williams
Market Closes for July 3^rd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39308.00	-23.85
		-0.06%
S&P 500	5537.02	+28.01
		+0.51%
NASDAQ	18188.30	+159.54
		+0.88%
TSX	22223.67	+269.87
		+1.23%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40580.76	+506.07
		+1.26%
HANG SENG	17978.57	+209.43
		+1.18%
SENSEX	79986.80	+545.35
		+0.69%
FTSE 100*	8171.12	+49.92
		+0.61%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.565	3.610
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.466	3.502
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.3587	4.4316
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5278	4.6053

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7333	0.7313
US $	1.3638	1.3675

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4713	0.6797
US $	1.0789	0.9269

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2331.75	2329.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.81	82.81

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 2001, the European Union officially blocked the proposed $43 billion merger of General Electric and Honeywell, the first time foreign authorities nixed a major merger between U.S. corporations.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 1.2%, or 269.87 to 22,223.67 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.4% on June 24.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.5%.
Calibre Mining Corp. had the largest increase, rising 7.2%.
Today, 162 of 226 shares rose, while 60 fell; all sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 11 times. The next day, it advanced nine times for an average 0.6% and declined twice for an average 0.5%
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.5% below its 52-week high on May 21, 2024 and 18.9% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2% in the past 5 days and rose 0.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.49t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.66% compared with 11.09% in the previous session and the average of 10.84% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 89.2220| 3.4| 48/3
Financials | 69.7058| 1.0| 22/5
Industrials | 43.9031| 1.4| 16/12
Information Technology | 20.0677| 1.1| 4/6
Energy | 18.1459| 0.5| 26/14
Utilities | 12.6261| 1.5| 11/3
Consumer Discretionary | 6.0424| 0.8| 8/5
Consumer Staples | 3.7569| 0.4| 7/4
Real Estate | 3.1505| 0.7| 14/5
Communication Services | 2.8670| 0.4| 3/2
Health Care | 0.3858| 0.6| 3/1
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 22.2500| 1.5| 10.9| 11.4
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 19.3600| 2.8| -37.4| 5.7
Brookfield Corp | 16.3800| 2.9| -40.5| 11.4
Cenovus Energy | -1.3820| -0.5| -62.8| 25.0
Enbridge | -1.4860| -0.2| -40.4| 2.4
Descartes Systems | -1.5550| -1.9| -46.2| 20.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders sent stocks higher as bonds yields fell after a string of weaker-than-estimated economic reports reinforced the case for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this year.
In a shortened session ahead of the US holiday, the S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high on bets Fed policy easing will keep fueling Corporate America.
Treasuries climbed as data showed the services sector contracted at the fastest pace in four years, private payrolls rose at a more moderate pace and continuing jobless claims increased for a ninth straight week.
To Win Thin and Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., if the data cooperate, a September Fed cut will be “very much in play.”
“Bad news is good news,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com. “That’s how risk assets reacted in the aftermath of today’s US data releases, which all came out weaker than expected.”
Traders will get further insight into the state of the American labor market Friday.
Economists anticipate a 190,000 gain in June nonfarm payrolls — a step-down from the previous month — with the unemployment rate holding at 4%.
The S&P 500 rose to around 5,535, notching its 33rd record in 2024.
Tesla Inc. extended its rally into a seventh straight session, leading gains in mega-caps — though Amazon.com Inc. fell.
The stock market closed at 1 p.m. New York time, while the recommended close for Treasuries is 2 p.m. — when the Fed minutes will be released.
Treasury 10-year yields fell nine basis points to 4.34%.
Swap traders are projecting almost two rate cuts in 2024, with the first in November — though bets on a September reduction increased.
The dollar slipped.
“Clouds are developing in the macro picture, but the glass-half-full mindset of investors continues to drive markets higher,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 40% of investors think the market reaction to Friday’s employment data will be negligible/mixed, 34% said “risk-on” and 26% “risk-off.”
“Investors are paying the most attention to payrolls,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V.
“The focus on wage growth has dropped some, which is a bit surprising given Powell’s explicit focus on wages yesterday. He said service inflation, which has been sticky, is dependent on wages.”
The 22V survey also showed there is an “upside skew” to the unemployment rate assumptions.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the latest economic data suggest inflation is getting back on a downward path, but emphasized officials need more evidence before lowering interest rates.
When he was asked what keeps him up at night, he pointed to the delicate balance between taming inflation and avoiding a significant deterioration in the labor market.
“Until employment weakens significantly there remains a fundamental support for the US economy, though there is some evidence of slowing,” said Don Rissmiller at Strategas.
“Fed members have indicated they want to see more progress on inflation – fortunately the US economy still looks robust enough currently to take an extended rate pause. But the clock is ticking.”
Meantime, Fed Bank of New York President John Williams, who has deeply researched the natural rate of interest known as r-star, pushed back against recent commentary that it has risen since the pandemic.
The idea of a long-run natural rate of interest, which prevails when the economy is not responding to shocks and is growing at its potential, is central to monetary policy but cannot be directly observed. Officials aim to raise rates above
the neutral level to cool the economy and fight inflation.

Corporate Highlights:
* Novo Nordisk A/S’ best-selling diabetes and weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy appear to be associated with a higher risk of a rare form of vision loss, according to an analysis by doctors at Massachusetts Eye and Ear, a Harvard-affiliated hospital.
* Paramount Global jumped after a merger deal with independent film and TV producer Skydance Media was revived.
* Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang unloaded shares worth nearly $169 million in June, the most he’s netted in a single month, as insatiable demand for the chips used to power artificial intelligence drove the stock to fresh peaks.
* Jeff Bezos disclosed a plan to unload 25 million additional shares of Amazon.com Inc. worth $5 billion on the day the stock hit a fresh record.
* Lyft Inc., which operates the popular Citi Bike program, said it will raise fares for e-bike rentals in New York City by 20%, blaming higher-than-expected operating costs.
* Ford Motor Co.’s F-Series pickup truck sales dropped in the second quarter as the automaker slowly rolls out a redesign of its top-selling model to avoid quality problems and recalls.
* Southwest Airlines Co. has adopted a shareholder rights plan to defend against a push for a leadership overhaul by activist firm Elliott Investment Management.
* LL Flooring Holdings Inc. is considering filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be named discussing private deliberations.

Key events this week:
* UK general election, Thursday
* US Independence Day holiday, Thursday
* Eurozone retail sales, Friday
* US jobs report, Friday
* Fed’s John Williams speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 1 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0795
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2754
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 161.52 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.4% to $60,417.99
* Ether fell 3.1% to $3,310.68
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined nine basis points to 4.34%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.59%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.17%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $83.18 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.2% to $2,356.39 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from John Viljoen, Sujata Rao and Winnie Hsu.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
The best way to cheer yourself up is to try to cheer somebody else up. –Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com