Month: July 2024

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

July 31^st, 1879: The first telecommunications cable between South Africa and Europe is laid by the British electrical engineer Charles Tilston Bright.
July 31, 1914 The New York Stock Exchange closed due to the outbreak of World War I. (Trading didn’t resume until December.)  Go to article >>

1790: US Patent Office opens.
Milton Friedman, economist, b. 1912.
J.K. Rowling, writer, b. 1965.

Olympic triathlon goes ahead despite concerns over Seine water quality
The triathlon competitions are scheduled to go forward in Paris today after poor water quality in the River Seine caused the men’s race to be postponed a day earlier.

‘White Dudes for Harris’ online fundraising call goes viral
A series of posts on social media promoted false claims that some NFL quarterbacks had joined a public “White Dudes for Harris” online fundraising call in support of Vice President Kamala Harris. Here are the facts.

ChatGPT is getting chattier with ‘advanced voice mode’
OpenAI stunned users when it demonstrated an updated voice mode for the most advanced version of ChatGPT earlier this year. The company began rolling out the feature to paid users this week.

Lead exposure from common foods
Most dark chocolate contains small amounts of lead and other heavy metals, a new study found. See which other products are on the FDA’s list of foods most contaminated with lead.

Ancient Egyptians used a hydraulic lift to build their 1st pyramid, controversial study claims
A massive water-treatment facility located near the Nile River may have been used to build the pyramid of Djoser. Read More.

Massive sinkholes in China hold ‘heavenly’ forests with plants adapted for harsh life underground
Plants growing at the bottom of sinkholes in China’s Dashiwei Tiankeng Group don’t take up as much carbon as surface plants do, but they have much higher levels of nutrients in their tissues. Read More.

‘Simone is a very, very rare bird’: Experts discuss the science behind Simone Biles’ gymnastic prowess
Even among the world’s most elite gymnasts, American Simone Biles, now competing in her third Olympic Games, is a standout. Read More.

‘Absurdly fast’ algorithm solves 70-year-old logjam — speeding up network traffic in areas from airline scheduling to the internet
Researchers have devised an “absurdly fast” algorithm to solve the problem of finding the fastest flow through a network. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Victoria, Australia
Demonstrators demanding action on the scarcity of social housing place origami houses on the steps of the Victorian Parliament.
Photograph: James Ross/AAP

London, UK
A technician applies the finishing touches to Little Cloud World, a public art installation in Covent Garden’s Market Building, by artists FriendsWithYou
Photograph: Paul Grover

​​​​​​​Falkirk, UK
‘The Kelpies are such stunning sculptures that the photos almost took themselves. I’m hooked and can’t wait to return.’
Photograph: Nicola Turner
Market Closes for July 31^st, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40842.79	+99.46
		+0.24%
S&P 500	5522.30	+85.86
		+1.58%
NASDAQ	17599.40	+451.98
		+2.64%
TSX	23110.81	+286.13
		+1.25%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39101.82	+575.87
		+1.49%
HANG SENG	17344.60	+341.69
		+2.01%
SENSEX	81741.34	+285.94
		+0.35%
FTSE 100*	8367.98	+93.57
		+1.13%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.161	3.232
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.210	3.283
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.0296	4.1394
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3028	4.3967

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7244	0.7222
US $	1.3805	1.3847

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4948	0.6690
US $	1.0828	0.9235

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2390.25	2391.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	77.91	75.81

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1914, with war raging in Europe, the New York Stock Exchange closed—and stayed shut for another four-and-a-half months to allow the chaotic market to settle
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 1.3%, or 286.13 to 23,110.81 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.4% on July 10.
Today, energy stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 173 of 226 shares rose, while 53 fell.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.5%.
New Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 13.1%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 11 times. The next day, it advanced 10 times for an average 0.6% and declined 0.3% once
* This month, the index rose 5.6%, heading for the biggest advance since November 2023
* The index advanced 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.1% in the past 5 days and rose 5.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.6 on a trailing basis and 15.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.63t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.60% compared with 10.32% in the previous session and the average of 11.00% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 83.1891| 2.1| 36/5
Materials | 57.1060| 2.0| 46/6
Information Technology | 52.5760| 2.9| 9/1
Financials | 49.0034| 0.7| 17/10
Industrials | 30.6777| 1.0| 23/5
Consumer Staples | 7.9492| 0.8| 11/0
Utilities | 7.2584| 0.8| 12/3
Communication Services | 3.8098| 0.5| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 0.9396| 0.1| 9/4
Health Care | 0.2918| 0.4| 3/1
Real Estate | -6.6633| -1.3| 2/18
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural
Resources | 24.7200| 3.5| -33.4| 12.9
Shopify | 21.6300| 3.1| 21.3| -18.0
Suncor | 17.2500| 3.6| -26.5| 29.9
Sun Life Financial | -2.3960| -0.9| 108.8| -0.3
Dollarama | -2.8060| -1.1| -5.4| 35.5
TD Bank | -2.8480| -0.3| -43.4| -4.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell helped extend a rally in stocks that started with surge in key technology companies, with the market scoring its best Federal Reserve Day in two years.
Equities staged a powerful rebound, with the Nasdaq 100 up 3%.
Nvidia Corp. surged 13% on a bullish analyst call.
The world’s most-valuable company added a record $329 billion in value.
In late trading, Meta Platforms Inc. soared on a sales beat.
Qualcomm Inc., the world’s biggest seller of smartphone processors, gave a strong revenue forecast.
Treasury yields slipped alongside the dollar.
Powell said the Fed could cut rates “as soon as” September.
Policymakers also made several adjustments to the language of a statement Wednesday.
Notably, the committee shifted to saying it is “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” rather than prior wording focused just on inflation risks.
“Press conference is somewhat more dovish than statement,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
“All in all, it definitely sounds like they are just waiting for the sake of waiting. After all, by his own admission, all the data are already pointing in the direction he wants to see!”
A $563 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 (ticker: SPY) climbed 1.6%.
Along with a 1% gain in an ETF of longer-dated Treasuries (ticker: TLT), Wednesday’s cross-asset rally was the largest of the year for such sessions when monetary policy was announced.
A Bloomberg gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps jumped 3.5%.
The Russell 2000 of small firms added 0.5%.
Treasury 10-year yields declined eight basis points to 4.06%.
Oil rose after Hamas said Israel killed its political leader, stoking geopolitical risks.
The yen rallied as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and announced plans to cut bond purchases.

Wall Street’s Reaction to Fed:
* Peter Boockvar at the Boock Report:
Powell so wants to say today ‘let’s do it’ — but at the same time, he knows he doesn’t have to commit just yet before he gets more time and data.
* Ryan Detrick at Carson Group:
As expected, the Fed is setting the table for interest rate cuts starting at their next meeting in September. Inflation has improved substantially, and we’ve even seen wages come back to earth the last few months. The reality is inflation is slowing and the Fed doesn’t
need rates this high anymore. In fact, one very real worry is the economy could slow over the coming quarters and this is why rate cuts are necessary. We think three cuts this year are quite likely.
* Rajeev Sharma at Key Wealth:
The Fed’s language today has opened the door wider for a September rate cut, but falls short of committing to one. Markets should anticipate a more likely signal for a September rate cut at Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole address in late August, where he will have another month of jobs and inflation data in hand.
* Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley:
Today was simply a placeholder—a day the markets were looking for more assurance about a September rate cut. They didn’t necessarily get anything concrete from the Fed’s statement, but if economic data continues to weaken over the next several weeks, the discussion may shift to speculation that the Fed has waited too long to pivot. That sentiment has the potential to add to the stock market’s choppiness as we head toward what is historically its most volatile period.
* Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial:
The markets positive reaction suggests traders and investors alike see the Fed easing at the September meeting because inflation continues its path lower rather than an emergency cut because the labor market is deteriorating.
* David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy at Trade Station:
The Fed inched toward a rate cut by noting higher unemployment and saying inflation is only somewhat elevated. The data has moved in Powell’s direction and now he’s getting ready to follow. Given the amount of time before the September meeting, this is what we’d expect at this time. Jobs data on Friday and CPI in two weeks are the next big items points. If those go well, we could get clearer messaging from Powell at Jackson Hole in late August.
* Brian Henderson at BOK Financial:
From an economic standpoint, if they cut twice this year, it won’t be a huge impact, and the rule of thumb is that it will take nine to 18 months before the economy feels the full brunt of rates going higher or, in this case, rates coming down. approach. Although it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, dawdling now unnecessarily increases the risk.
* Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist, Principal Asset Management, said:
The balanced statement should fool nobody. The Fed contemplates its word choice long and hard, and the new emphasis to risks to both sides of the dual mandate adds a slight dovish twinge which cracks the door open to the September cut that everyone is expecting.
* Scott Pike at Income Research + Management:
Today’s FOMC Statement, with the slightly dovish shift to the language around both inflation progress and labor market balance, helps moves us further down the path towards a rate cut at their meeting in September.
* Greg McBride at Bankrate:
The Fed has tee’d things up nicely for a September rate cut– as long as the inflation data cooperate. The escape hatch from cutting rates is if inflation doesn’t continue to demonstrate consistent movement toward the 2% target. There are no less than four changes in wording within the Fed’s statement that acknowledges the evolving picture in the job market. If the job market should show evidence of cooling off at an alarming pace between now and the September Fed meeting, the first rate cut could be a larger half-point cut. There would be plenty of advance notice if this should come to pass.
* Julian Howard at GAM Investments:
Pressure to cut rates is mounting. However, for the Fed, it’s no slam dunk. Credibility matters a lot. If the economy softens and inflation eases further but the Fed has done nothing in the meantime, that will be seen as sleepwalking. It is then likely the dreaded words ‘policy error’ will start to circulate. Today’s decision may not have been a surprise, but to say that September’s one will be closely watched would be an understatement.
* Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers:
The statement shows a shift in the decision weights of the US central banks from a large weight on inflation to a balanced set of weights between unemployment and inflation. This opens the door to a September cut without calling it for sure.
* Bill Adams at Comerica Bank:
The unemployment rate is ticking higher, payrolls growth and wage growth are slowing, and inflation by the Fed’s preferred yardstick is trending lower and doesn’t look far from 2% with glasses off. These data are tangible evidence that the US economy is around the point where the Fed should take the foot off the brake.
* Jeffrey J. Roach at LPL Financial:
The Fed used today’s statement to prepare markets for upcoming rate cuts. As inflation rates improve and unemployment increases, the Fed can cut rates yet keep the nominal funds rate above the inflation rate. Markets will likely respond favorably to the subtle shift in tone.

Corporate Highlights:
* The US is considering unilateral restrictions on China’s access to AI memory chips and equipment capable of making those semiconductors as soon as next month, a move that would further escalate the tech rivalry between the world’s biggest economies.
* Boeing Co. appointed Kelly Ortberg as its next chief executive officer, entrusting a retired veteran of the aviation industry with one of the most complex turnaround challenges in corporate America.
* Mastercard Inc.’s profit beat estimates on strength in customer spending and online payments.
* Intel Corp. plans to eliminate thousands of jobs to reduce costs and fund an ambitious effort to rebound from an earnings slump and market share losses.
* Starbucks Corp. delivered results that were in line with expectations, assuaging investors who had been bracing for another meltdown after being blindsided by the previous quarter’s slump.
* Pinterest Inc. warned that revenue in the current quarter will be lower than analysts’ predictions.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. is bracing for a $500 million negative impact from the technology breakdown this month that led to thousands of canceled flights and tarnished the carrier’s reputation.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, unemployment, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, ISM Manufacturing, Thursday
* Amazon, Apple earnings, Thursday
* Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
* US employment, factory orders, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0820
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2853
* The Japanese yen rose 1.9% to 149.80 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $65,043.01
* Ether fell 0.8% to $3,253.76
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.06%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.30%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 3.97%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.9% to $78.38 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.6% to $2,449.50 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Lu Wang and Jessica Menton.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
We either make ourselves miserable, or we make ourselves strong.  The amount of work is the same. –Carlos Castaneda, 1925-1998.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

July 30, 1921: Insulin is first isolated as a pancreatic extract by Canadian scientists Sir Frederick G. Banting and Charles H. Best.
1945: The USS Indianapolis, which had just delivered key components of the Hiroshima atomic bomb to the Pacific island of Tinian, was torpedoed by a Japanese submarine; 880 men lost their lives. Go to article >>

1935: Paperback books introduced.
Emily Bronte, author, b. 1818.
Henry Moore, sculptor, b.1848.
Henry Ford, industrialist, b. 1863.
Arnold Schwarzenegger, b.1947.

Google’s Olympics ad went viral for all the wrong reasons
To critics online, this Google advertisement appeared to be the latest example of a Big Tech company being disconnected from real people.

Dog’s unlikely friendship delights the internet
A chihuahua and a postman have amassed thousands of followers after the dog’s owner started posting their daily ritual.

Drop bears: The true history of a fake Australian animal
Many countries have a creature that is rumored to exist but is never seen. In Australia, legend has it that creepy koalas drop unexpectedly from trees.

Identity of 2,200-year-old skeleton in ‘Tomb of Cerberus’ is a mystery
Archaeologists have found a shrouded skeleton that was buried around 2,200 years ago in a tomb with extravagant murals. Read More.

China’s Chang’e 5 rover detects hints of water on the moon
The hydrated molecules were found inside a rock sample retrieved by China’s Chang’e 5 mission in 2020. Read More.

Hydrogen-powered VTOL aircraft makes record 523-mile journey — and lands with 10% of its fuel left in the tank
An air taxi has completed the first forward flight of a hydrogen-fueled aircraft capable of vertical takeoff and landing — and it broke a distance record in the process. Read More

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Afyonkarahisar, Turkey
Flamingos feed at Lake Eber at sunset, which is along a migration route. The lake, which looks like a meadow in places due to the density of reed and straw grass and various aquatic plants growing in the region, is home to various bird and fish species
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Paris, France
A young Brazilian fan cools off in front of the Eiffel Tower on day four of the Olympic Games
Photograph: Ryan Pierse/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Beijing, China
People shelter from a rainstorm as the area is issued with a warning for extreme weather
Photograph: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 30^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40743.33	+203.40
		+0.50%
S&P 500	5436.44	-27.10
		-0.50%
NASDAQ	17147.42	-222.78
		-1.28%
TSX	22824.67	+45.11
		+0.20%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	38525.95	+57.32
		+0.15%
HANG SENG	17002.91	-235.43
		-1.37%
SENSEX	81455.40	+99.56
		+0.12%
FTSE 100*	8274.41	-17.94
		-0.22%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.232	3.319
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.283	3.368
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1394	4.1939
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3967	4.4523

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7222	0.7220
US $	1.3847	1.3850

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4975	0.6678
US $	1.0814	0.9247

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2391.10	2386.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	75.81	77.16

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1914, stock exchanges in Berlin, Rome and Vienna shut after Austria declared war on Serbia and World War I kicked off. Investors panicked in New York: General Motors plunged 34%and Bethlehem Steel dropped 14%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 6.9% on immense volume.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% at 22,824.67 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since July 22 after the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.2%.
Filo Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.8%.
Today, 129 of 226 shares rose, while 93 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.3%, heading for the biggest advance since November 2023
* The index advanced 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 22.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 4.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.62t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 10.32% compared with 10.32% in the previous session and the average of 11.02% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 28.5215| 0.4| 17/10
Energy | 19.2782| 0.5| 27/13
Consumer Staples | 6.6934| 0.7| 8/2
Materials | 5.5081| 0.2| 29/22
Utilities | 4.9869| 0.6| 11/4
Communication Services | 3.8670| 0.6| 3/2
Health Care | 1.3046| 2.0| 4/0
Real Estate | 0.1529| 0.0| 14/5
Consumer Discretionary | -0.7539| -0.1| 5/8
Industrials | -1.7189| -0.1| 8/20
Information Technology | -22.7379| -1.3| 3/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 21.5500| 2.2| -9.5| -4.5
RBC | 11.9600| 0.8| -35.3| 14.9
Enbridge | 10.4000| 1.4| 42.1| 8.1
First Quantum Minerals | -2.6730| -3.3| -1.5| 47.5
Shopify | -7.9440| -1.1| -22.8| -20.5
Constellation Software | -14.0900| -2.4| 63.5| 29.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A selloff in some of the world’s largest technology companies sent stocks down ahead of key central bank decisions.
Bonds and gold climbed amid a flare-up in geopolitical risks.
Oil remained lower.
Renewed tech weakness weighed on the S&P 500 — with Nvidia Corp. tumbling — even as most of the index’s shares gained.
After an over $2-trillion Nasdaq 100 wipeout, waded through Microsoft Corp.’s results for clues on the outlook for artificial intelligence.
The shares sank 7% in late hours.
The numbers will set the scene for reports from other heavyweights this week, with markets also gearing up for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision.
“If the Fed does not signal a September rate cut, markets could get a bit ugly given recent tech weakness — especially if earnings underwhelm,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
While the Fed is expected to hold benchmark rates at the highest level in more than two decades, traders will be closely watching for any hints that the start of policy easing is near.
In the run-up to the announcement, data showed US consumer confidence rose on an improved outlook for the economy and job openings beat forecasts.
The S&P 500 fell to around 5,435.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 1.4%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps sank 2%.
The Russell 2000 of small firms rose 0.3%.
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. plunged on a report Delta Air Lines Inc. hired an attorney after a tech outage.
Procter & Gamble Co. sank on a sales miss.
JetBlue Airways Corp. soared on a turnaround plan.
Treasury 10-year yields dropped three basis points to 4.14%.
West Texas Intermediate crude hovered near $75.
Israel’s military struck Beirut, aiming at a Hezbollah commander, in response to a rocket attack on Saturday in the Golan Heights.
The yen rose.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will be under intense scrutiny Wednesday when he unveils his plans for quantitative tightening and delivers a decision on the policy interest rate.
Recent yen weakness has done more harm than good for the Japanese economy, according to Japan’s newly appointed top foreign exchange official.
*BOJ BOARD MEMBERS TO DISCUSS RAISING RATES TO 0.25%: NHK Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon told CNBC that one or two Fed rate cuts later this year are looking increasingly likely.
That’s after predicting just two months ago there would be no rate reductions in 2024.
Aside from tech earnings, the continuing broadening of this year’s stock market rally hangs on what the Fed does and says about rates on Wednesday.
Signs of cooling inflation have made traders step up their rotation out of big tech — and into everything from small-capitalization stocks to value plays.
If the Fed is about to begin a rate reduction cycle, stock bulls have history on their side.
In the six prior hiking cycles, the S&P 500 has risen an average 5% a year after the first cut, according to calculations by the financial research firm CFRA.
What’s more, the gains also broadened, with the small-cap Russell 2000 Index climbing 3.2% 12 months later, CFRA’s data show.
To Bank of America Corp.’s Savita Subramanian, the S&P 500 has probably already logged the gains it will see this year, but the benchmark still presents ample opportunities for investors.
While neutral on the index overall, she says there’s potential for strong returns in a few areas: among dividend payers, “old school” capital-expenditure beneficiaries like infrastructure, construction and manufacturing stocks, and other themes that don’t revolve around artificial intelligence.
“In mid-2023, sentiment was deeply negative and our toolkit suggested that the direction of economic and earnings surprises was more likely positive than negative,” Subramanian wrote.
“Today, sentiment is neutral and positive surprises are ebbing.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Pfizer Inc. raised its profit expectations for the year, citing new cancer drugs, as it seeks to dig out of a Covid-related hole in sales.
* Merck & Co. got hit as light sales of its Gardasil HPV vaccine in China dimmed quarterly profit and sales that beat Wall Street estimates.
* SoFi Technologies Inc. raised its forecast for this year’s profit and revenue as the fintech benefits from both its newer technology businesses and its trademark lending operation.
* Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and AGCO Corp. plunged as disappointing earnings heightened concerns about a slowdown in the farming sector after several boom years.
* Airbus SE has initiated a wholesale review of its ailing space business, with Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury saying he’s weighing all possibilities about the future of the subsidiary after it racked up close to $1 billion in charges in the first half.
* L’Oréal SA reported sluggish sales growth in the second quarter as the world’s biggest maker of beauty products suffered from weakness in China.
* BP Plc maintained the pace of share buybacks and increased its dividend as strong second-quarter earnings from pumping crude offset weakness in other parts of the business.
* Grifols SA, the Spanish pharmaceutical company hit by a short seller attack this year, said it overstated the value of its stake in a Chinese firm and reported an accounting adjustment of €457 million ($494 million).

Key events this week:
* Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
* Bank of Japan policy decision, Wednesday
* US ADP employment change, Wednesday
* Fed rate decision, Wednesday
* Meta Platforms earnings, Wednesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, unemployment, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, ISM Manufacturing, Thursday
* Amazon, Apple earnings, Thursday
* Bank of England rate decision, Thursday
* US employment, factory orders, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0811
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2832
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 153.26 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.1% to $65,939.38
* Ether fell 1.5% to $3,272.72
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.14%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.34%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.04%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $75.09 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1% to $2,407.48 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
First say to yourself what you would be; and then do what you have to do. –Epictetus, c.50 AD- c.135 AD.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.  Opening ceremonies for the Olympics in Paris today.

July 26, 1971: Apollo 15 was launched on a manned mission to the moon.  Go to article >>
July 26, 1972: The Rolling Stones play Madison Square Gardens on Mick Jagger’s 29^th birthday and participate in a pie fight with the audience.

Mick Jagger, b. 1943.
Aldous Huxley, b. 1894.
George Bernard Shaw, b. 1894.
Carl Jung, b. 1875.

The world’s greatest places of 2024, according to TIME
Looking for destination ideas? TIME just released its list of the world’s 100 greatest places to visit in 2024.

A thrilling baseball moment
Dylan Cease, a 28-year-old pitcher for the San Diego Padres, threw the second no-hitter in franchise history on Thursday.

Site of 1893 shipwreck discovered in Lake Michigan
Maritime historians recently found the historic schooner Margaret A. Muir, which was lost in a terrible storm in 1893, just a few miles off a Wisconsin harbor town.

Mangrove Photography Award: Images show the world’s disappearing coastal forests
From powerful cyclones to dreamlike scenery, these award-winning photos show beauty and destruction in nature.

World’s loneliest tree species can’t reproduce without a mate. So AI is looking for one hidden in the forests of South Africa.
A single specimen of an ancient tree species was found in 1895. Now scientists are using AI to find it a mate. Read More.

What causes blushing? Science finally reveals the answer.
A new study harnessed Mariah Carey karaoke and brain scans to reveal the neuroscience behind blushing. Read More.

Strange compound used to treat cancer can extract rare-earth metals from old tech at 99% efficiency
Scientists harness a compound normally used in cancer treatment to reclaim rare-earth elements from electronic waste. Read more.

Antimatter detected on International Space Station could reveal new physics
Eight years ago, the ISS detected weird antimatter particles that challenge our entire understanding of physics. Now, researchers have proposed that mysterious cosmic “fireballs” could help explain the detection. Read More.

Boeing Starliner astronauts remain stuck on International Space Station with no set return date, NASA announces
After nearly two months of postponement, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams are still on board the ISS. But NASA and Boeing say they still plan to return the two aboard Starliner. Read More.

Ultra-rare black hole found hiding in the center of the Milky Way
A potential intermediate-mass black hole is hiding right next to our galaxy’s supermassive black hole. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
Artworks decorate the banks – and even the water – of the River Seine
Photograph: Vadim Ghirdă/AP

A humpback whale swims past an iceberg in Disko Bay near Ilulissat, Greenland. Earlier this year scientists released a study in which they concluded that the country’s glaciers, which all descend from the Greenland Ice Sheet, have retreated about 20% more than previously estimated. Of the 200 glaciers included in the study, only one has grown since 1985. Overall, the amount of glacial ice melting globally has increased markedly over the past 30 years
Photograph: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Banc d’Arguin, Mauritania
A traditional sailing boat passes by a colony of birds in the Banc d’Arguin national park. Located in northern Mauritania, the Banc d’Arguin is a nature reserve established in 1976 to protect both the natural resources and the valuable fisheries, which makes a significant contribution to the national economy
Photograph: Michele Cattani/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 26^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40589.34	+654.27
		+1.64%
S&P 500	5459.10	+59.88
		+1.11%
NASDAQ	17357.88	176.16
		+1.03%
TSX	22814.81	+206.78
		+0.91%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37667.41	-202.10
		-0.53%
HANG SENG	17021.31	+16.34
		+0.10%
SENSEX	81332.72	+1292.92
		+1.62%
FTSE 100*	8285.71	+99.36
		+1.21%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.319	3.372
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.368	3.410
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1939	4.2427
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4523	4.4861

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7230	0.7232
US $	1.3829	1.3827

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.5025	0.6655
US $	1.0865	0.9204

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2386.10	2421.45
Oil
WTI Crude Future	77.16	78.88

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1903, Vermont doctor Horatio Nelson Jackson completed the first crossing of the U.S. by automobile. The journey from San Francisco to Manhattan, with a mechanic and a dog, took 63 days
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.9% at 22,814.81 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.1% on July 16 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.1%.
Constellation Software Inc/Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.7%.
Winpak Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 7.8%.
Today, 194 of 226 shares rose, while 27 fell; all sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.3%, heading for the biggest advance since November 2023
* So far this week, the index rose 0.5%
* The index advanced 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 22.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.59t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.35% compared with 10.18% in the previous session and the average of 11.09% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 69.6366| 1.0| 27/0
Industrials | 30.7619| 1.0| 22/5
Information Technology | 28.8856| 1.6| 10/0
Energy | 25.2797| 0.6| 32/8
Materials | 24.9545| 0.9| 43/7
Utilities | 7.6572| 0.9| 13/2
Communication Services | 6.8064| 1.0| 5/0
Consumer Discretionary | 5.4248| 0.7| 11/2
Real Estate | 4.2722| 0.9| 19/0
Consumer Staples | 1.7185| 0.2| 8/3
Health Care | 1.3948| 2.2| 4/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Constellation Software | 16.4000| 2.7| 27.5| 36.1
RBC | 15.9200| 1.1| 94.5| 14.3
Brookfield Corp | 13.3800| 2.1| -36.1| 23.0
Restaurant Brands | -1.6800| -0.8| -43.6| -9.2
Wheaton Precious Metals | -1.8050| -0.7| -14.5| 23.4
TFI International | -1.8660| -1.6| 104.2| 17.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market got a boost at the end of a wild week after key economic data bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will set up the stage for an interest-rate cut in September.
Every major group in the S&P 500 rose Friday on bets that a Fed easing cycle will keep fueling Corporate America — with the bull market broadening beyond a narrow group of companies.
While big tech has enjoyed massive gains this year, concern about the so-called concentration risk has come to the forefront after a disappointing start of the mega cap earnings season.
The rotation into economically sensitive shares has come on the heels of Fed-friendly data.
Investors who for months saw fewer alternatives to a tight group of market winners were suddenly faced with more choices.
Financial, industrial and staples shares have largely beaten tech in July.
Small caps have rallied 10% on bets they’d do better amid lower rates given their higher debt loads.
“We’ve seen this strength in small caps — a significant rotation not seen in decades,” said George Maris at Principal Asset Management. “As we see earnings likely broaden out and recover, you’re going to see greater enthusiasm for those smaller cap names. There is going to be lasting power to this rotation.”
Friday’s economic data only reinforced those bets. The Fed’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation — the so- called core personal consumption expenditures price index — rose at a tame pace in June and consumer spending remained healthy.
Separately, US consumer sentiment eased in July to an eight-month low.
“Certainly, the prospect for interest rate cuts has helped underpin the surge-like move into smaller names as they are more interest rate sensitive than the S&P 500,” said Quincy Krosby at LPL Financial. “Still, there has been a prevailing concern that
because small caps require a solid economic landscape, a weaker US economy could easily hinder investor interest.”
The S&P 500 rose 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.6%. The Nasdaq 100 added 1%.
The Russell 2000 of small caps climbed 1.7%.
Homebuilders hit a record high.
3M Co., the iconic maker of Post-it notes, soared the most since 1980 on a bullish outlook.
An initial public offering for billionaire Bill Ackman’s US closed-end fund was postponed.
Treasury 10-year yields dropped five basis points to 4.19%.
An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 — where the likes of Nvidia Corp. carry the same heft as Dollar Tree Inc. — is beating the US equity benchmark for a third straight week.
This is a notable shift for the measure that’s trailed the US equity benchmark for months.
And it comes as optimism over eventual monetary easing is pushing investors away from the perceived safety of tech mega caps.
“A meaningful rotation from large-cap growth into SMID-cap value has been underway, and we think that will continue,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler. “Our breadth indicators confirmed this seismic shift, along with the technical evidence that investors are reducing their concentration risk in the ‘Lag’ Seven and other large-cap leaders.”
The Fed is likely to signal next week its plans to cut interest rates in September, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, a move they say will kick off reductions each quarter through 2025.
Nearly three-quarters of respondents say the US central bank will use the gathering to set the stage for a quarter-point cut at the following meeting in September.
“It seems the tide has finally turned,” said David Russell at TradeStation, in comments addressing the latest inflation data.
“Investors can now focus on the big earnings next week and worry less about prices and rates.”
“Next week’s earnings reports from a heavy package of mega-cap tech names, will be a crucial test for a market that is trying to find direction amid mixed economic data and underpinned by a historically negative seasonal pattern,” said Krosby at LPL Financial.
Indeed, traders will be on the lookout for a raft of earnings from big tech.
The stakes were already elevated for the group heading into this earnings season.
They just got a lot higher after a rout fueled by this week’s underwhelming results from a pair of mega caps.
Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. are all due to report earnings next week.
“The ‘earnings issue’ will probably still be the more important one as we move into the month of August,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. “If this earnings season continues to weigh on the tech stocks, there is a good chance that it will cause investors to start to ‘rotate’ into cash  — instead of the small cap stocks.”
The rally in the biggest US technology stocks is at risk of fading further if the US economy continues to cool, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
The strategist — who is bullish on bonds for the second half of 2024 — has said signs of an economic slowdown would fuel a rotation into stocks that have lagged behind the pricey tech mega caps this year.
Hartnett said recent data suggested the global economy was “ill,” and that “we are one bad payroll away” from big tech stocks losing their dominance.
Now here’s a piece of advice from Strategas: fear the cut, not the pause — for markets and earnings.
The market tends to perform much better during the period between the last hike in a Fed tightening cycle and the first cut in rates than it does after the first cut in the Fed Funds rate, according to Jason De Sena Trennert and Ryan Grabinski at Strategas.
On average, the market bottoms 213 days later and 23% lower after the first Fed cut in a series of rate cuts.
S&P 500 operating earnings decline by about 10% on average in the 12 months following the first easing, according to Strategas.

Corporate Highlights:
* Honeywell International Inc. is considering an initial public offering of its majority-owned quantum computing firm Quantinuum as soon as next year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* McDonald’s Corp.’s new $5 meal deal has led to a modest increase in US visits and brought back some low-income diners — the first signs that the burger chain’s strategy to appear more affordable is paying off.
* Apollo Global Management Inc. has agreed to buy International Game Technology Plc’s gaming division and the gambling machines company Everi Holdings Inc. in a $6.3 billion, all-cash deal that will see the two businesses merged.
* Apple Inc. lost ground in China’s smartphone market in the June quarter after local companies like Huawei Technologies Co. surged ahead.
* Dexcom Inc. plunged after the maker of blood sugar monitoring devices for diabetics unexpectedly slashed its 2024 sales guidance, catching Wall Street by surprise.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.9%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.9%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0857
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2873
* The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 153.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4% to $67,913.38
* Ether rose 3.6% to $3,267.93
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.19%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.41%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.10%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.9% to $76.80 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.9% to $2,386.90 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Champions aren’t made in gyms.  Champions are made from something they have deep inside them: a  desire, a dream, a vision.
They have to have last-minute stamina, they have to be a little faster, they have to have the skill and the will.  But the will must be stronger than the skill. -Muhammad Ali, 1942-2016.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

Pilgrimage of St. Anne d ’Auray, France.
St. James the Great Day.

July 25, 1953, New York City: The subway token is introduced and the fare is raised to 15 cents.
1978: World’s first test-tube baby is born. The first baby conceived by in-vitro fertilization was born in Oldham, England. Go to article >>

The photographer capturing climbers at dizzying heights
Simon Carter’s images capture climbers tackling some of the world’s most stunning rock formations. See the photos here.

‘The Matrix’ turns 25 this year
Actor Keanu Reeves got emotional over how much the beloved sci-fi classic “The Matrix” changed his life over the last 25 years.

‘Spectacular and definitely hazardous’: Yellowstone geyser erupts, firing steam and debris over nearby tourists
A hydrothermal eruption Tuesday surprised visitors walking among the colorful hot springs in Yellowstone National Park’s Biscuit Basin, near the famous Old Faithful geyser. Read More.

Moat that protected ancient Jerusalem’s royalty discovered near parking lot
After a 150-year search, archaeologists found the moat near a parking lot in Jerusalem. Read More.

‘Double’ meteor shower will light up the skies next week. Here’s how to watch.
As Earth’s orbit intersects with those of two comets this month, stargazers will have a chance to view spectacular double meteor showers. Read More.

Next-gen quantum computers could be powered with high-energy lasers made 10,000 times smaller
High-powered titanium: sapphire lasers have been shrunk down with scientists planning to cram hundreds or thousands onto a four-inch wafer in a new chip. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Wales, UK
‘A pony watches us in the opening of Conwy Valley.’
Photograph: Rohan Armon Davies

Lord Howe Island, Australia
‘The fortnightly supply ship, Island Trader, out of Port Macquarie, anchored in the lagoon under Mounts Lidgbird and Bower.’
Photograph: Neil Andrews

​​​​​​​London, UK
‘An interesting top-down view in Kew Gardens.’
Photograph: Jonathan Sheldrick/Guardian Community
Market Closes for July 25^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39935.07	+81.20
		+0.20%
S&P 500	5399.22	-27.91
		-0.51%
NASDAQ	17181.73	-160.68
		-0.93%
TSX	22608.03	-31.54
		-0.14%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	37869.51	-1285.34
		-3.28%
HANG SENG	17004.97	-306.08
		-1.77 %
SENSEX	80039.80	-109.08
		-0.14%
FTSE 100*	8186.35	+32.66
		+0.40%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.372	3.398
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.410	3.427
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2427	4.2838
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4861	4.5419

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7232	0.7244
US $	1.3827	1.3805

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4994	0.6669
US $	1.0844	0.9222

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2421.45	2403.10
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.88	78.20

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1893, that year’s financial panic reached its low point: Nearly one-quarter of the nation’s railroads headed into bankruptcy and the directors of the NYSE almost closed down the exchange.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.1%, or 31.54 to 22,608.03 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since July 11.
Canadian National Railway Co. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.0%.
Boyd Group Services Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.2%.
Today, 104 of 226 shares fell, while 118 rose; 4 of 11 sectors were lower, led by industrials stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 3.3%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.4%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended June 21
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.7% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 20.9% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 3.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 on a trailing basis and 15.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.6t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.18% compared with 10.93% in the previous session and the average of 11.13% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Industrials | -33.3414| -1.1| 14/13
Materials | -32.5677| -1.2| 14/37
Consumer Discretionary | -3.2090| -0.4| 7/6
Consumer Staples | -2.2654| -0.2| 5/6
Health Care | 0.4807| 0.8| 3/1
Utilities | 0.5426| 0.1| 8/6
Communication Services | 1.5421| 0.2| 4/1
Energy | 3.6968| 0.1| 26/14
Real Estate | 5.2170| 1.1| 9/11
Information Technology | 10.4971| 0.6| 7/3
Financials | 17.8604| 0.3| 21/6
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian National | -12.6400| -2.0| 26.6| -5.8
Barrick Gold | -12.0200| -3.8| -6.8| 2.4
Waste Connections | -10.1500| -2.3| 100.1| 22.7
Constellation Software | 6.6580| 1.1| -12.6| 32.5
Brookfield Corp | 6.9880| 1.1| 72.9| 20.5
TD Bank | 8.4200| 0.9| -38.6| -6.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A renewed selloff in the world’s largest technology companies dragged down the stock market, overshadowing economic data that bolstered confidence the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing.
About 300 companies in the S&P 500 advanced — but the index itself finished lower. While economically sensitive groups such as energy, industrial and financial shares rose, the US equity benchmark’s most-influential sector came under renewed pressure.
The cohort of tech mega caps that has led the bull market continued to largely underperform smaller firms — which have rallied almost 10% in July.
As the S&P 500 marched from one record to the next in the first half of the year, some investors grew concerned that only a handful of companies were participating in the rally.
Corners of the market outside of big tech have recently barreled higher amid confidence the Fed is taming inflation without breaking the economy — and will soon be able to cut interest rates.
“We’re in the midst of a great, rate-led rotation from tech to everything else,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management. “Sure, it’s been painful, but it may be worth weathering this storm for what could come on the other side. Believe in this bull market, or risk getting left behind.”
But not everyone is buying the rotation theme. At Birinyi Associates Inc., Jeff Rubin suggests what is occurring is the more typical correction. “And in a correction, it is hard to find a safe place to hide, but this will pass and will allow you to buy stocks that you wished you had bought months ago.”
The S&P 500 closed below 5,400. The Russell 2000 of smaller companies climbed 1.3% and a measure of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps fell 1.1%.
Alphabet Inc. slumped as OpenAI is letting a limited group of users test a new set of search features.
Tesla Inc. rose after a 12% plunge. Treasury 10-year yields fell three basis points to 4.26%.
Interestingly enough, many equity traders also welcomed the fact that the latest economic figures bolstered market bets on a rate cut in September — and not earlier.
Yes, policy easing usually bodes well for Corporate America, but a rush to slash borrowing costs could actually have an adverse impact on sentiment.
It could signal officials worried about a bigger economic slowdown.
US economic growth accelerated by more than forecast in the second quarter, illustrating demand is holding up under the weight of higher borrowing costs.
Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized rate after rising 1.4% in the previous quarter.
A closely watched measure of underlying inflation ose 2.9%, easing from the first quarter but still above estimates.
“Goldilocks is getting stronger and the risk of stagflation is fading,” said David Russell at TradeStation. “There’s not much ‘stag; and not much ‘flation’.
This kind of GDP report is a potential tailwind for corporate earnings that keeps us on pace for lower rates going forward.”
To Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance, the US economy is much stronger than people realize and to the extent
that markets were worried about a growth slowdown, they should breathe a sigh of relief after the GDP number.
“As long as the economy avoids a recession, then this bull market will continue through 2024 and well into 2025, so we would take advantage of any pullbacks along the way,” he noted.
Thursday’s economic figures do “lend support to the soft-landing narrative” adding that the report “should provide some relief to stressed markets,” according to Matt Peron at Janus Henderson Investors.
“The catch-up trade in smaller stocks should still have room to run,” said Yung-Yu Ma at BMO Wealth Management.
“Earnings growth among smaller companies is set to improve by year end, and the Fed will soon begin a year-long rate cutting campaign which will disproportionately benefit smaller companies.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Meta Platforms Inc. is facing its first European Union fine over allegations it abused its dominance in the classified ad market by tying Facebook Marketplace to its social network.
* EssilorLuxottica SA confirmed Meta Platforms Inc. is interested in buying a stake in the world’s biggest eyewear maker.
* American Airlines Group Inc. cut its earnings outlook as it works to bounce back from earlier blunders that will weigh on revenue and profits for the rest of 2024.
* New York Community Bancorp reported provisions for loan losses higher than every analyst’s estimate.
* Harley-Davidson Inc.’s second-quarter revenue exceeded analysts’ estimates on higher shipments and better sales of pricier motorcycles in North America. It also announced a $1 billion share buyback.
* International Business Machines Corp. reported a jump in bookings for its artificial intelligence business as customers work to implement the latest technology.
* Ford Motor Co. tumbled after a big earnings miss that the automaker blamed on a surge in warranty repair costs for older vehicles.
* Lululemon Athletica Inc. sank as analysts raised fresh concerns about the company’s ability to hit financial targets due to ongoing product execution issues and slowing active wear trends.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0845
* The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2851
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 153.83 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $64,622.32
* Ether fell 8% to $3,106.9
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.25%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.13%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $78.14 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.5% to $2,361.64 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As always,

Carolann
The reward for virtue is the understanding of the good deed. –Marus Tullius Cicero, 106 BC-43 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 24, 1847: Pioneer Day, Mormons enter Salt Lake City.
July 24, 1911: American archeologist Hiram Bingham III rediscovers Machu Picchu, Peru.
July 24, 1959 During a visit to the Soviet Union, Vice President Richard M. Nixon and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev compared the merits of capitalism and communism in the “kitchen debate,” so-named because it took place at a model kitchen at a U.S. exhibition.  Go to article >>

Amelia Earhart, aviatrix, b.1898.
Alexandre Dumas, writer, b. 1802
Jennifer Lopez, singer/actress, b.1970.
Simon Bolivar, south American liberator, b. 1783.
Zelda Fitzgerald, b. 1900

How this ‘off-putting’ color shaded the internet and beyond
Barbie pink was the hot color of 2023. Now, slime green — also known as Brat green — has become the defining color of summer 2024.

Are cold showers good for you?
Cold showers are a popular wellness practice alongside cold plunges or ice baths, but do they work? Experts weigh in on what the research shows.

Snoop Dogg will be one of the final torchbearers at the Paris Olympics
The torch relay is on its way to Paris! American rapper Snoop Dogg will be one of the final torchbearers of the Olympic flame.

Hollywood is energized by Harris
Vice President Kamala Harris has received the support of some major Hollywood stars as she moves to secure the Democratic nomination. Read about the nature of celebrity influence on this year’s historic election.

What you should know about toxic ‘forever chemicals’
Some toxic “forever chemicals” found in pesticides are being used on food, in homes, and even in pet flea treatments, according to a new study. Learn how you can limit your possible exposure.

The best meteor showers of 2024 are yet to come. Here are the key nights to watch for.
Here’s everything you need to know to see the best meteor showers of 2024. Read More.

Lasers reveal Roman-era circus in Spain where 5,000 spectators watched horse-drawn chariot races
Researchers used lidar technology to map Iruña Veleia, a Roman-era city in Spain. Read More.

‘It’s risky for male frogs out there’: Female frog drags and attempts to eat screaming male
Female green and golden bell frogs in Australia will eat their male counterparts when the males’ mating call displeases them. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bristol, UK
Hot air balloons take off from College Green and Queen Square to mark the countdown to the 46th Bristol International Balloon Fiesta. This year, Europe’s largest hot air balloon festival takes off on Friday 9 August, and will last until Sunday 11 August, with more than 140 hot air balloons ascending into the sky
Photograph: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

Tahiti, French Polynesia
The US surfer John John Florence during a training session in Teahupo’o ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games
Photograph: Ben Thouard/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​A herd of giraffes move together during a translocation exercise for wild giraffes in a farm near Eldoret, Kenya
Market Closes for July 24^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	39853.87	-504.22
		-1.25%
S&P 500	5427.13	-128.61
		-2.31%
NASDAQ	17342.41	-654.94
		-3.64%
TSX	22639.57	-174.18
		-0.76%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39154.85	-439.54
		-1.11%
HANG SENG	17311.05	-158.31
		-0.91%
SENSEX	80148.88	-280.16
		-0.35%
FTSE 100*	8153.69	-13.68
		-0.17%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.398	3.391
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.427	3.395
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2838	4.2506
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.5419	4.4842

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7244	0.7255
US $	1.3805	1.3784

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4965	0.6682
US $	1.0840	0.9225

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2403.10	2392.70
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.20	78.20

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1987, the corporate assets of ZZZZ Best Co. were sold at a bankruptcy auction in Los Angeles for $62,000. Less than four months earlier, the carpet-cleaning company run by 21-year-old whiz kid Barry Minkow had a stock-market value of roughly $300 million.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.8%, or 174.18 to 22,639.57 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest loss since July 5.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 169 of 226 shares fell, while 56 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.2%.
Bausch Health Cos. had the largest drop, falling 23.1%.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 3.5%
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.6% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 21.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 3.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.62t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.93% compared with 10.61% in the previous session and the average of 11.17% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -48.5400| -2.6| 0/10
Financials | -47.3755| -0.7| 5/22
Industrials | -40.2528| -1.3| 5/23
Materials | -15.0044| -0.5| 12/40
Energy | -14.4013| -0.4| 6/35
Consumer Discretionary | -10.7585| -1.3| 2/11
Health Care | -5.4063| -7.9| 2/2
Real Estate | -3.2083| -0.6| 3/16
Consumer Staples | 2.4718| 0.2| 9/2
Communication Services | 2.8229| 0.4| 4/1
Utilities | 5.4750| 0.6| 8/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -38.0300| -5.2| -11.7| -20.6
Canadian National | -21.4800| -3.3| 139.0| -3.9
Brookfield Corp | -14.8700| -2.3| -43.0| 19.2
BCE | 2.8050| 1.0| -29.1| -12.2
Fortis | 3.2730| 1.7| 77.8| 3.6
Enbridge | 3.7140| 0.5| 9.8| 5.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street got a reality check after a disappointing start of the megacap earnings season fueled concern the artificial-intelligence frenzy that has powered the bull market might be overblown.
A selloff in big tech sent the S&P 500 to its worst day since December 2022, ending the best stretch without a 2% drop since the start of the global financial crisis.
Losses were more pronounced in the Nasdaq 100, which tumbled over 3.5%.
Alphabet Inc. slid 5% after sinking more resources into its drive to outmatch rivals in AI, with spending higher than analysts expected.
Tesla Inc.’s profit miss and the Robotaxi delay spurred a 12% stock plunge.
S&P 500 Snaps Longest Streak Without a 2% Decline Since 2007 “Investors are finally waking up to all that AI spend and realizing it is much more of an expense right now rather than a revenue generator,” said Peter Boockvar at The Boock Report.
Wednesday’s session was another lesson in the “concentration risk” bears see as latent in a market whose upside has owed disproportionately to a narrow cohort of massive gainers.
For a fourth straight session — and the 10th time in 11 days — the performance of smaller companies exceeded larger ones, evidence investor tastes have shifted from the megacap tech names that have come to dominate benchmark indexes.
The Treasury curve steepened on bets the Federal Reserve is close to cutting rates. Former New York Fed President William Dudley called for lower borrowing costs — preferably at next week’s gathering.
For many analysts, such a move would be worrisome as it would indicate officials rushing to avoid a recession.
The loonie fell as the Bank of Canada cut rates, focused on “downside risks.”
The yen hit the highest since May amid an unwind in carry trades.
Goldman’s Top Stock Analyst Is Waiting for AI Bubble to Burst To Steve Clayton at Hargreaves Lansdown, this could be the year markets start talking about the “So-So Seven,” noting that results from Tesla and Alphabet are not enough to maintain their momentum.
“The market is not impressed with the start of earnings season for the mega tech stocks,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. “There was a lot resting on these results and we don’t think that they give clear answers to questions about the effectiveness and profit potential for AI right now.”
After driving the rally in stocks for most of 2024, big tech slammed into a wall.
Traders rotated from megacaps to lagging parts of the market, spurred by bets on Fed rate cuts and concern AI still needs to pay off.
“Tech’s problem isn’t just that earnings are less than perfect, but the group is still caught up in the violent rotation trade that kicked off with the June CPI,” said Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli.
“Many assumed the anti-tech rotation would be ephemeral and the fact it’s proving durable is compounding anxiety toward the group and spurring additional selling pressure.”
The drubbing in these stocks has seen some of the air come out of valuations.
While that’s something that could argue in favor of dip buying, the earnings season is just getting started.
Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. are all due to report results next week.
To Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers, the equity correction is far from over.
“Yesterday we wrote that a 10% to 15% correction was in the cards this quarter, historically the worst period of the year,” Torres said. “This quarter, the valuation concerns are paired with front-loaded gains, irrational exuberance, a high bar for earnings estimates and a presidential election.”
But as far as quarterly results, the concern is not exclusively related to tech.
Broadly, second-quarter earnings season is off to a weaker start than usual.
Among S&P 500 companies that reported results, profits beat analyst estimates by the smallest margin since the end of 2022 — while sales surprises were the worst in at least two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“We are still looking for volatility to increase moving through the second half of 2024 – with the potential for a 10% to 15% correction in benchmarks like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“Our work does not point to secular/structural downturn at this time, but rather a pause in the reflationary expansion cycle that began a few years ago.”
Just as earnings roll in, a key technical indicator in the US stock market sat close to historic extremes — a crucial gauge that has foretold past selloffs.
Known as the “the 200-DMA” — an abbreviation of 200-day moving average — the gauge measures how the S&P 500 is performing against that longer-term measure.
At one point last week, the benchmark was trading as much as 15% above it, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
While the gap has since narrowed since last week — to 9% through Wednesday’s close — that kind of gulf above 12% still preceded declines for the index in 2011, 2018 and 2021.
Although that does not necessarily mean the market is about to tank, it is a warning sign for investors concerned about lofty tech valuations and concentration risk.
The recent slump in US stocks is flashing a warning to trend-following funds: sell US equities no matter which direction the market goes.
Both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 benchmarks have breached thresholds that trigger a selling signal for commodity trading advisers, or CTAs, according to models at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk.
If stocks keep falling, those rules-based traders could unwind $32.9 billion of global stocks with $7.9 billion flowing out of the US market, according to an analysis from the bank’s trading desk. Even if the market reverses its slide, CTAs are still poised to sell $902 million of US stocks.

Corporate Highlights:
* International Business Machines Corp. reported a jump in bookings for its artificial intelligence business as customers work to implement the latest technology.
* Ford Motor Co. posted second-quarter profit that fell short of Wall Street estimates, saying quality problems with new vehicles led to a surge in warranty costs.
* Bank of America Corp. said its board authorized another $25 billion stock repurchase program.
* Whirlpool Corp., the owner of Maytag, lowered its full-year earnings forecast, as consumers continued to shy away from big-ticket appliance purchases amid a weakening housing market.
* Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.’s limited-time offers and speedy service helped the burrito seller bring in more customers in the second quarter, defying a broad-based demand pullback in the restaurant industry.
* ServiceNow Inc. reported better-than-expected sales and bookings, suggesting customer enthusiasm for the software company’s expanding suite of tools.

Key events this week:
* Germany IFO business climate, Thursday
* US GDP, initial jobless claims, durable goods, Thursday
* US personal income, PCE, consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 2.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.25%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 5.9%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0839
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2905
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 153.98 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.1% to $65,934.43
* Ether fell 3.2% to $3,372.06
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.44%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.16%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $77.45 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,398.57 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jessica Menton, Lu Wang, Felice Maranz, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Joel Leon, Natalia Kniazhevich, Tatiana Darie and Alex Nicholson.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Ever tried.  Ever failed.  No matter.
Try again.  Fail again.  Fail better.  –Samuel Beckett, 1906-1989.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

July 23, 2000: Tiger Woods became the youngest golfer to complete a career Grand Slam when he won the British Open at age 24. Go to article >>

Discovery of ‘dark oxygen’ from deep-sea metal lumps could trigger rethink of origins of life
In a global first, scientists working in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in the North Pacific Ocean have found that metallic nodules on the seafloor produce their own oxygen, dubbed “dark oxygen.” Read More.

Bonnie Prince Charlie narrowly escaped an assassination attempt in Scotland in 1745, musket ball hole reveals
Volunteers at Bannockburn House in Scotland discovered a musket ball hole in a wall that dates to the Jacobite Rebellion of 1745. Read More.

Is the James Webb Space Telescope really ‘breaking’ cosmology?
While headlines around the world claimed that ancient galaxies discovered by the James Webb Space Telescope were “breaking” our understanding of the Big Bang, the truth is much more nuanced — and much
more interesting. Read More.

Why did Homo sapiens outlast all other human species?
What’s the secret to Homo sapiens’ success as a species? Read More.

Prince George is 11 — see his birthday photo
Where did the time go? Britain’s royal family has released an official portrait to mark Prince George’s 11th birthday.

Hit by a hurricane, they moved abroad for a second chance
A Texas couple built a home in Thailand after their property was flooded during Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Here’s how it’s going.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Potsdam, Germany
Fairy lights of a circus form an arch over a waning gibbous moon
Photograph: Ralf Hirschberger/AFP/Getty Images

Wistow, England
Wistow Maze is designed to represent heptathlete Katarina Johnson-Thompson in the pose of throwing a javelin before the Olympic Games in Paris
Photograph: Jacob King/PA

​​​​​​​Dubai, United Arab Emirates
A girl plays at the Aya Universe, a new entertainment park
Photograph: Nabila Eltigi/Reuters
Market Closes for July 23^rd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40358.09	-57.35
		-0.14%
S&P 500	5555.74	-8.67
		-0.16%
NASDAQ	17997.35	-10.22
		-0.06%
TSX	22813.75	-58.90
		-0.26%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39594.39	-4.61
		-0.01%
HANG SENG	17469.36	-166.52
		-0.94%
SENSEX	80429.04	-73.04
		-0.09%
FTSE 100*	8167.37	-31.41
		-0.38%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.391	3.411
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.395	3.404
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2506	4.2525
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4842	4.4720

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7255	0.7270
US $	1.3784	1.3755

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4959	0.6685
US $	1.0852	0.9215

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2392.70	2403.50
Oil
WTI Crude Future	78.20	79.78

Market Commentary:

📈 On this day in 1996, stock guru Elaine Garzarelli told clients to sell. Her forecast that stocks would drop 15% to 25% sent the market into a nosedive. Garzarelli, though, turned out to be wide of the mark.

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 22,813.75 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.8%.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.8%.
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. had the largest drop, falling 3.5%.
Today, 100 of 226 shares fell, while 125 rose; 6 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.3%, heading for the biggest advance since November 2023
* The index advanced 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.8% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 22.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.8% in the past 5 days and rose 5.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.63t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.61% compared with 10.94% in the previous session and the average of 11.18% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -37.4743| -0.9| 12/29
Industrials | -24.0640| -0.8| 12/16
Financials | -16.0499| -0.2| 17/10
Consumer Discretionary | -1.8609| -0.2| 5/8
Consumer Staples | -0.3372| 0.0| 7/4
Communication Services | -0.0579| 0.0| 2/3
Health Care | 0.0084| 0.0| 3/1
Real Estate | 1.1101| 0.2| 14/6
Utilities | 1.8083| 0.2| 9/6
Information Technology | 7.4761| 0.4| 9/1
Materials | 10.5365| 0.4| 35/16
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -13.3300| -1.8| -42.2| 10.1
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -13.1000| -1.8| -39.2| 7.8
RBC | -12.9500| -0.9| 120.6| 13.6
Agnico Eagle Mines | 3.8390| 1.1| -52.5| 43.0
Barrick Gold | 4.4160| 1.4| -41.0| 7.0
Dollarama | 4.5200| 1.8| -29.8| 38.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks failed to gain traction as traders waded through a deluge of corporate results for clues on whether the market will be able to extend this year’s record-breaking advance.
Following its biggest rally since early June, the S&P 500 fell.
United Parcel Service Inc. suffered its largest-ever plunge on disappointing results.
In late trading, Tesla Inc. dropped after an earnings miss.
Alphabet Inc. whipsawed even after its revenue beat analysts’ expectations.
“Given that profit expectations are high for the ‘Magnificent Seven,’ these companies will have a lot to prove when they report results,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise. “At the same time, their outlooks will likely be
heavily scrutinized in comparison to elevated valuations.”
Upbeat earnings would be a much-needed driver for equities after a roaring first half of the year.
The market is facing pressure heading into a seasonally weak period, with volatility likely to be heightened by the US presidential election.
The S&P 500 hovered near 5,550.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” underperformed the Russell 2000 of small firms.
Apple Inc. rose as “The Information” said the company is moving forward with a foldable iPhone.
Southwest Airlines Co. fell on news it’s facing enhanced scrutiny from regulators over a series of flight safety incidents.
US two-year yields edged lower after a solid $69 billion auction — which underscored market bets on rate cuts.
Occidental Petroleum Corp. tapped the investment-grade bond market with a $5 billion sale.
Oil slumped amid algorithmic selling and low summer liquidity.
After driving the rally in US stocks for most of the year, big tech slammed into a wall last week.
Investors rotated from high-flying mega-cap shares to riskier, lagging parts of the market, spurred by bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, the threat of more trade restrictions on chipmakers and concern that the hype around artificial intelligence may be overblown.
“Google-parent Alphabet and Tesla will probably grab the most eyeballs, and their numbers will also represent a big test for the ‘Magnificent Seven’ following a significant amount of rotation out of that heavyweight club since the last consumer inflation report,” said Arthur Hogan at B. Riley Wealth.
The five biggest US technology companies are facing tough comparisons with stellar earnings cycles of the past year.
Profits for the group are projected to rise 29% in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.
While still strong, that’s down from the past three quarters and, to investors, the stock reaction to earnings remains one of the biggest wild cards.
“The fact that these stocks have experienced weakness leading up to their earnings reports isn’t necessarily such a bad thing as rallies into earnings would only have the potential to set the bar unrealistically high,” said Bespoke Investment Group. “It doesn’t take a gymnast to know that the lower the bar, the easier it is to get over it.”
“We expect the earnings season to bolster confidence in the equity market,” said Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management. “While markets could be choppy in the near term, after a period in which investor positioning had become overextended, we believe fundamentals remain strong.”
While investors are concerned about a sustained selloff in US technology mega-caps, Barclays Plc strategists say a robust earnings outlook means the cohort is still attractive after the recent rout.
The team led by Venu Krishna raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to 5,600 points from 5,300, citing solid profit expectations for big tech.
“While our valuation assumption for big tech is high, growth-adjusted multiples are reasonable and we expect the group to earn into its valuations,” they said.
Bank of America Corp. clients were big sellers of US stocks as the S&P 500 posted its worst week since April, with outflows led by institutions and hedge funds as mom-and-pop investors were small net buyers.
Last week, BofA clients sold a net $7 billion of US equities, the largest exit since November 2020, quantitative strategists led by Jill Carey Hall said Tuesday.
Technology stocks saw their first outflows since May.

Corporate Highlights:
* Coca-Cola Co. raised its full-year outlook as higher prices bolstered the soft-drink giant’s performance.
* Kimberly-Clark Corp., the owner of the Kleenex brand, reported quarterly sales that trailed estimates, partially driven by retailers lowering their stocks of the company’s bath tissue and intensifying private-label competition.
* Philip Morris International Inc. raised its forecast for annual profit growth on higher demand for its Zyn nicotine pouches, as enthusiasm for tobacco alternatives rages on.
* Comcast Corp. reported second-quarter revenue that missed analysts’ estimates, dragged down by a slower season at its movie studios and theme parks.
* General Motors Co.’s profit surged 60% from a year ago, easily beating Wall Street’s expectations on strong demand for gas-powered trucks in the US.
* LVMH sales growth slowed last quarter as wealthy shoppers reined in spending on pricey Louis Vuitton handbags and Christian Dior couture.

Key events this week:
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* US new home sales, S&P Global PMI, Wednesday
* IBM, Deutsche Bank earnings, Wednesday
* Germany IFO business climate, Thursday
* US GDP, initial jobless claims, durable goods, Thursday
* US personal income, PCE, consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0850
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2903
* The Japanese yen rose 0.9% to 155.64 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 3.9% to $65,509.96
* Ether fell 0.9% to $3,459.34
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.25%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.44%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.12%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.3% to $77.36 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,407.85 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sagarika Jaisinghani and Jessica Menton.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
There is nothing like returning to a place that remains unchanged to find the ways in which you yourself have altered. –Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela, 1918-2013.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
July 22,1376: Pied Piper of Hamelin, Germany.  Rat Catcher’s Day.
July 22, 1833: The British House of Commons passes the Slavery Abolition Act.
On July 22, 1934, a man identified as bank robber John Dillinger was shot to death by federal agents in Chicago.

2 young orcas ram sailboat off northern France — 800 miles from ‘attack’ hotspot
Coastguards had to tow a 40-foot-long sailboat back to port after two young orcas severely damaged the boat’s rudder near Guilvinec in the French region of Brittany. Read More.

‘We can’t answer these questions’: Neuroscientist Kenneth Kosik on whether lab-grown brains will achieve consciousness
So much is still unknown about consciousness, never mind whether brain organoids will achieve it, explains a leading neuroscientist. Read More.

NASA’s Curiosity rover accidentally reveals ultra-rare sulfur crystals after crushing a rock on Mars
NASA’s Curiosity rover revealed an “oasis” of rare elemental sulfur on Mars after accidentally crushing a rock with its tires. The yellow crystals have never been spotted on the Red Planet before. Read More.

Last Chance Lake: The unusual ‘soda lake’ with conditions that may have given rise to life on Earth
Scientists consider Last Chance Lake to be an analog for lakes that may have existed on Earth 4 billion years ago and contained the ingredients for early life on our planet. Read More.

Valuable artifact purchased at thrift store
A history buff bought a piece of a tent from Goodwill for $1,700. It really did belong to George Washington.

AI helps retailers set prices
You’re not going crazy — you may be paying higher prices than other people depending on your location. Here’s how AI can help companies set prices for different groups of consumers.

Tadej Pogačar completes dominant Tour de France victory
A 26-year-old became the first rider since Marco Pantani in 1998 to achieve the “double,” winning the Tour de France and Giro d’Italia in the same year.

Do you want to be happier? Here are 5 habits to adopt
A person’s happiness level lies on a continuum, with some people naturally happier than others. Here are five tips to improve your range.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Minamiboso, Japan
Sea-diving fisherpeople pray for an abundant catch in a traditional ceremony held by female free divers in Chiba prefecture
Photograph: Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters

Teahupo’o, Tahiti
Australian surfer Molly Picklum trains for the Paris Olympic Games
Photograph: Ben Thouard/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Maletto, Italy
The ‘deer moon’ rises in the Voragine crater of Mount Etna. The full moon in July is known as the deer moon, a definition derived from the Native American tribe of the Algonquins, and a reference to the maximum development of male deer antlers
Photograph: Fabrizio Villa/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 22^nd, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40415.44	+127.91
		+0.32%
S&P 500	5564.41	+59.41
		+1.08%
NASDAQ	18007.57	+280.63
		+1.58%
TSX	22872.65	+182.26
		+0.80%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	39599.00	-464.79
		-1.16%
HANG SENG	17635.88	+218.20
		+1.25%
SENSEX	80502.08	-102.57
		-0.13%
FTSE 100*	8198.78	+43.06
		+0.53%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.411	3.396
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.404	3.378
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2525	4.2389
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4720	4.4468

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7270	0.7277
US $	1.3755	1.3742

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4982	0.6675
US $	1.0892	0.9181

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2403.50	2463.80
Oil
WTI Crude Future	79.78	80.13

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1944, the Bretton Woods Agreement was signed in Mount Washington, N.H. This pegged major foreign currencies to the U.S. dollar, fixed the gold price at $35 per ounce, and laid the groundwork for the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.8% at 22,872.65 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Today, financials stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 177 of 226 shares rose, while 47 fell.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.9%.
Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc. had the largest increase, rising 27.1%.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 4.6%, heading for the biggest advance since November 2023
* The index advanced 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.5% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 22.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 6.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.6t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.94% compared with 10.75% in the previous session and the average of 11.21% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 65.7705| 0.9| 24/3
Energy | 37.3348| 0.9| 33/7
Industrials | 32.2081| 1.0| 27/1
Information Technology | 12.4945| 0.7| 9/1
Utilities | 11.1140| 1.3| 14/1
Consumer Discretionary | 10.5148| 1.3| 9/4
Real Estate | 9.5372| 2.0| 20/0
Consumer Staples | 4.3613| 0.4| 7/4
Health Care | 1.1911| 1.8| 3/1
Materials | -0.4463| 0.0| 30/21
Communication Services | -1.8192| -0.3| 1/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | 11.9800| 1.9| -57.5| 21.3
Constellation Software | 10.2300| 1.8| 0.1| 30.6
Canadian National | 9.1220| 1.4| -46.6| 0.8
Ivanhoe Mines | -2.3770| -3.0| 7.7| 43.3
Teck Resources | -3.3770| -1.6| -24.5| 12.8
Shopify | -4.2250| -0.6| -20.9| -16.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rebounded after their worst week since April as investors looked beyond Joe Biden ending his reelection campaign to focus on the start of tech earnings season.
Despite the selloff that had some on Wall Street bracing for a correction, respondents to Bloomberg’s Markets Live Pulse survey expect earnings to reinvigorate the S&P 500 — which climbed 1.1% to start the week.
With results from Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. on deck Tuesday, nearly two-thirds of the 463 respondents expect corporate profits to boost US equities.
Sky-high valuations and seasonal weakness have incited some stock pullback warnings, with traders also facing political uncertainties.
Yet even with the many headlines that followed Biden’s decision to quit the race and endorse Kamala Harris, a sense of calm prevailed Monday.
Volatility slumped as dip buyers emerged.
“This political shake-up shouldn’t materially alter the direction of the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.
“The ultimate direction of the S&P 500 will still be determined by economic growth.”
The S&P 500 rose the most since early June.
The Nasdaq 100 added 1.5%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” climbed about 2.5%, led by gains in Tesla and Nvidia Corp.
The Russell 2000 of smaller firms added 1.7%.
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. sank amid the continued fallout from a faulty software update.
Treasury yields edged higher, setting the stage for this week’s readings on the economy as well as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
For much of July, bets on a rate cut in September drove shorter-term bonds up — narrowing the gap with longer-dated maturities.
The dollar wavered Monday.
“Don’t get us wrong, the upcoming election will certainly still be a focus for everybody — including investors — over the coming months, but there will be times when their focus will move to other issues, said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co.
To Peter Boockvar at The Boock Report, debts and deficits are going to continue to skyrocket regardless of who wins the election.
“If Trump wins, we’ll get a full extension of the 2025 tax cuts but a possible slew of tariffs, more protectionism and likely a weaker dollar,” Boockvar said. “If Harris wins (assuming she’s the nominee), some of those Trump tax cuts will
not be extended and we’ll get only some tariffs but still a lot of protectionism and possibly a weaker dollar.”
“I think up until the election, markets are going to trade more so on the trajectory of inflation, earnings, the economy and what the Fed does,” he concluded.
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has advanced roughly 5% on average in the third quarter of election years, logging positive returns nearly two-thirds of the time during the July through September period, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence.
Its track record has been even better in times a sitting president was up for reelection, averaging a nearly 8% rise in those months.
Strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute are reiterating their conviction in US equities after the S&P 500 logged its worst week in three months.
“We see pullbacks as an opportunity to lean into stocks,” team led by Wei Li wrote. “Looking through near-term noise” of small-cap rally, big tech is likely to keep driving returns as companies carry positive earnings results for the market, the strategists said.
After driving the rally in US stocks for most of the year, big tech slammed into a wall last week.
Investors rotated from high-flying mega-cap shares to riskier, lagging parts of the market, spurred by bets on Fed rate cuts and the threat of more trade restrictions on chipmakers.
Hedge funds spent last week selling their winners at the fastest pace since the meme stock craze in January 2021 as the world’s largest technology companies got hammered.
The funds’ long-short net leverage, which is often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite, fell to 49.8% last week — the lowest level since March 2023, according to Goldman’s prime brokerage desk.
At a single stock level, the biggest unwinds came across information technology, health care, financials and energy.
Still, the recent outperformance of US small caps is facing technical resistance and lacks fundamental drivers to carry on for a longer period of time, according to Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson.
“While we’re respectful of still light sentiment/positioning in small caps, we see limited fundamental and macro justification for small cap outperformance continuing in a durable manner,” Wilson and his team said in a note to clients.
Prospects of a Republican win in November’s presidential election may invoke small-cap “animal spirits,” but that is likely to be short lived, according to Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett. “We prefer the resilience of large caps to small caps — bottom line,” she wrote.
John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management saw last week’s market action as some prudent consideration by investors in addressing a need to redistribute the weighting of opportunity and risks across more than a few sectors, styles and market capitalizations.
“That said, we remain positive on technology stocks suggesting that investors “don’t change horses in the middle of a stream” but rather that they consider distributing the load of risk and opportunity across more than a few “horses” better known in equity investing as: companies, sectors, market capitalizations and styles, he noted.
The S&P 500 just exited what’s historically been its best two-week stretch of the year in the first half of July, and is approaching its most challenging stretch in August and September.
Profit estimates for the S&P 500 in the second quarter haven’t been cut as much as they normally have, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists, a sign that there’s little room for disappointment this earnings season.
A team lead by Mislav Matejka said usually projections fall by 5% in the three months before results, but this time it’s been about 1%.
The “market is trading near highs, with full positioning and extreme concentration, suggesting that there is not much scope to absorb any disappointments,” they wrote.
“The heart of earnings season begins this week and plenty of tech companies report, which should give investors an idea of how healthy the overall economy looks through corporate eyes,” said Paul Nolte at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management.

Corporate Highlights:
* AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. said it reached a sweeping restructuring deal with creditors that will let it delay repayment of more than $1.6 billion of debt for several years, buying it time to execute a turnaround.
* Mattel Inc. is confident in its path as a standalone business after Reuters, citing people with knowledge of the matter, reported that the toymaker has been approached with a buyout offer by the private equity firm L Catterton.
* Boeing Co. dominated the first day of dealmaking at the Farnborough International Airshow, sealing an estimated $12.6 billion in aircraft sales at the aviation industry’s biggest event of the year.
* Delta Air Lines Inc. expects to cancel more flights this week as the carrier tries to recover from a crippling technology outage.
* Ryanair Holdings Plc cut its outlook for ticket prices in the crucial summer travel period and said fares will be “materially lower” as consumers grow more cautious, adding to pessimism that the post-pandemic rebound in flying is fizzling.
* Verizon Communications Inc. reported operating revenue that missed analysts’ estimates as fewer people upgraded wireless equipment.
* The bulk of McDonald’s Corp. US restaurants will extend the burger chain’s $5 meal deal in a bid to attract budget-strapped diners.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Tuesday
* US existing home sales, Tuesday
* Alphabet, Tesla, LVMH earnings, Tuesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* US new home sales, S&P Global PMI, Wednesday
* IBM, Deutsche Bank earnings, Wednesday
* Germany IFO business climate, Thursday
* US GDP, initial jobless claims, durable goods, Thursday
* US personal income, PCE, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.9%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0888
* The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2930
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 157.09 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $68,228.59
* Ether was little changed at $3,498.04
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.25%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.50%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.16%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $79.78 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from John Viljoen, Sujata Rao, Matthew Burgess, Kasia Klimasinska, Vildana Hajric, Alexandra Semenova and Natalia Kniazhevich.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Being rational is a moral imperative.  You should never be stupider than you need to be. –Charlie Munger, 1924-2023.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.  Full moon this weekend!

July 19, 1870: The French emperor Napoleon III declares war on Prussia, beginning the Franco-German War.
July 19,1979: Nicaragua Liberation Day
July 19,1980: The Summer Olympics began in Moscow with dozens of nations boycotting because of Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan. Go to article >>

Charles Mayo, surgeon, b. 1865
Edgar Degas, artist, b. 1834

A dangerous hobby: Couple enjoys illegally scaling the world’s tallest buildings together
A Netflix documentary shows a pair of rooftoppers climbing impossible heights while navigating their own romantic ups and downs.

Even if your kids roll their eyes, keep making jokes
The kind of jokes parents make are sometimes stereotyped as corny, but they may be helpful in raising happy, connected children, according to a new study

Greece shuts Acropolis
The country temporarily shut down its biggest cultural attraction as tourists and residents in southern Europe struggle to stay cool in extreme heat.

‘ChatGPT moment for biology’: Ex-Meta scientists develop AI model that creates proteins ‘not found in nature’
The ESM3 model can ‘write’ new proteins from scratch, opening up new possibilities for synthetic biology.  Read More.

1,800-year-old ring depicting Roman goddess discovered by ancient quarry in Israel
A 13-year-old boy hiking in Haifa discovered a Roman-era ring with a depiction of Minerva, the goddess of war and wisdom. Read More.

Rock carvings of ancient Egyptian pharaohs found underwater near Aswan
Archaeologists discovered rock carvings featuring several pharaohs during an underwater expedition near Aswan, Egypt.  Full Story: Live Science (7/18)

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bees in their hive on the roof of a house in Havana, Cuba
Photograph: Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters

Norfolk, UK
‘I nearly didn’t get up for dawn (3am start) as the sunrise looked bland, but then soon after sunrise clouds appeared and provided a spectacular sunrise in Cromer. The pile of rocks are the new sea defences going in.’
Photograph: David Eberlin

​​​​​​​Maryland, US
‘It was sunset on Smith Island, in the Chesapeake Bay. I crouched down to capture the brown pelicans as they rested on a sandbar.’
Photograph: Lorraine Woellert
Market Closes for July 19^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40287.53	-377.49
		-0.93%
S&P 500	5505.00	-39.59
		-0.71%
NASDAQ	17726.94	-144.28
		-0.81%
TSX	22690.39	-36.37
		-0.16%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40063.79	-62.56
		-0.16%
HANG SENG	17417.68	-360.73
		-2.03%
SENSEX	80604.65	-738.81
		-0.91%
FTSE 100*	8155.72	-49.17
		-0.60%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.396	3.379
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.378	3.352
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2389	4.2021
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4468	4.4217

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7277	0.7297
US $	1.3742	1.3704

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4960	0.6684
US $	1.0889	0.9184

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2463.80	2480.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	80.13	82.85

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1990, six IPOs were issued in a single day, setting a Wall Street record. The companies, including Command Security and In-Store Advertising, raised a total of $100 million.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.2%, or 36.37 to 22,690.39 in Toronto.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 0.7%. Ballard Power Systems Inc. had the largest drop, falling 4.0%.
Today, 134 of 226 shares fell, while 86 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.3% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 21.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.61t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.75% compared with 11.23% in the previous session and the average of 11.08% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -28.3443| -0.4| 7/20
Materials | -10.2447| -0.4| 13/39
Energy | -4.1658| -0.1| 11/27
Communication Services | -2.8265| -0.4| 0/5
Industrials | -2.5586| -0.1| 10/16
Utilities | -2.0945| -0.2| 3/12
Consumer Discretionary | -1.8825| -0.2| 6/7
Health Care | 0.6505| 1.0| 3/1
Real Estate | 1.7485| 0.4| 15/4
Information Technology | 5.0409| 0.3| 9/1
Consumer Staples | 8.3043| 0.8| 9/2
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | -10.9700| -0.7| 141.6| 13.9
Canadian Natural Resources | -8.9900| -1.2| -59.5| 11.3
Bank of Nova Scotia| -6.5300| -1.2| -64.3| -0.5
Teck Resources | 3.7630| 1.9| -23.1| 14.7
Enbridge | 6.3880| 0.9| 45.8| 5.2
TC Energy | 8.1920| 2.0| -59.5| 9.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell at the end of a wild week, with results from technology giants set to arrive at a critical moment on Wall Street.
Most groups in the S&P 500 dropped Friday, with the gauge having its worst week since April.
That’s after a “rotation” that saw investors trimming positions on this year’s winners in favor of laggards.
Underpinning that trade were bets the 2024 rally would broaden out of mega-caps as the Federal Reserve cuts rates.
The swift repositioning spurred calls for a pullback that engulfed various sectors alongside tech ahead of the industry’s earnings.
“Next week is important for the near-term trajectory of the stock earnings, with many mega-cap tech companies reporting,” said Glen Smith at GDS Wealth Management. “If we were to see the powerful combination of strong tech earnings and softening inflation, that could reverse the market’s recent weakness and spark a new leg higher.”
After the selloff, the “Magnificent Seven” cohort of mega-caps ended the week with a 5% slide.
Within the overall tech space, losses have been more pronounced in chipmakers.
A closely watched gauge of semiconductors like Nvidia Corp. and Intel Corp. sank almost 9%.
Even as investors cooled down on the rotation trade, small caps climbed over 1.5% in the span.
The S&P 500 dropped to around 5,500 Friday.
The Nasdaq 100 slid about 1%.
The Russell 2000 Index of smaller firms fell 0.6%.
Behind a massive IT failure that grounded flights, upended markets and disrupted corporations around the world was cybersecurity company CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.
Its stock tumbled as much as 15% before paring losses.
Aside from a slew of earnings next week, traders will be looking at key economic reports including the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is expected to keep bets alive on a September rate cut.
Still, Treasury yields edged up across the curve Friday.
“Economic data has softened and this supports the case for easier monetary policy to come,” said Cayla Seder at State Street. “While lower rates are a good thing for small caps who are hurt more by higher rates, we aren’t convinced this signals a major turning point yet.”
George Cipolloni at Penn Mutual Asset Management says part of the recent rotation was due to money flowing from an overly concentrated market and into unloved, undervalued sectors.
“I do believe that overly concentrated markets can be a precursor for a more volatile market,” he said. “It only takes one big earnings miss or one negative headline from a highly \weighted company to take the major indexes down.”
Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. will be the first of the “Magnificent Seven” to report earnings on Tuesday.
Analysts will likely press Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle giant on the progress of its plans for robo-taxis.
And investors will delve into the details of Google’s parent revenue boost from artificial intelligence.
After that, traders will have to wait until the following week — when Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. report.
Earnings from Nvidia will only come out in late August.
“For the first time since 2022, S&P 500 earnings may not be laser-focused on just technology,” Bloomberg Intelligence strategists led by Gina Martin Adams wrote this month. “While forecasts for the Magnificent Seven remain robust, their earnings are expected to slow in the second quarter — just as the rest of the S&P 500 may finally post their first year-on-year growth in at least five quarters.”
There’s a risk of a setback for the equities this summer, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists, who say the market is more likely to see a correction than a bear market in the second half.
That could result from “the combination of weaker growth data, already more dovish central bank expectations and rising policy uncertainty into the US elections,” strategists led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote.
Investors have flocked to US equities as they grew more certain the Fed will cut rates by September and Donald Trump will win the US presidential election, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.
US equity funds absorbed about $45 billion — the fourth-largest inflow on record — in the week through Wednesday, a team led by Michael Hartnett wrote in a note, citing EPFR Global data.
Small-cap funds had $9.9 billion of inflows, the second-largest ever, while large-cap funds received $27.4 billion.
Hartnett also said its likely stocks will slide after the Fed rate cut, calling it a “buy rumor, sell fact” opportunity.
His team is also bullish on bonds as he expects any new tariffs enacted by Trump over the next 12 months to be “deflationary than inflationary,” as opposed to market expectations.
After spending two months unloading the best-performing stocks in the market, hedge funds are now underweight technology, media and telecom by the most on record.
Their net leverage, which is often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite, fell to 54% in early July, the lowest level since January, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage desk.
This, however, is not a bearish trade.
Rather, the so-called smart money is gearing up for a wild presidential campaign, and the funds want cash ready to be deployed immediately as stock volatility rises and share prices start to swing.

Corporate Highlights:
* American Express Co. said it’s planning to increase spending on marketing even as billings growth on the company’s credit cards slowed in the second quarter.
* Nippon Steel Corp. has hired former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to help complete a proposed purchase of United States Steel Corp., a deal facing bipartisan opposition from Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.
* SLB and Halliburton Co. said they see strong international demand for crude drilling after posting earnings that met or beat forecasts, supporting their shift into overseas markets.
* SunPower Corp. plunged as Guggenheim Securities cut the solar equipment firm’s price target to zero and said the stock may soon be delisted.
* Eli Lilly & Co.’s Mounjaro gained Chinese regulatory approval for weight less than a month after a similar therapy from Novo Nordisk A/S, fueling competition in a nation that’s among the world’s most severely hit by obesity.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0880
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2911
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 157.50 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 5.1% to $67,073.76
* Ether rose 2.8% to $3,511.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.24%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.47%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.12%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.1% to $80.28 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.9% to $2,398.73 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sujata Rao, Isabelle Lee, Farah Elbahrawy, Henry Ren, Natalia Kniazhevich, Divya Patil and Richard Henderson.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
We are face to face with our destiny and we must meet it with a high and resolute courage. For us is the life of action, of strenuous performance of duty; let us live in the harness, striving mightily; let us rather run the risk of wearing out than rusting out. – Theodore Roosevelt, 1858-1919.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

July 18, 1969: A car driven by Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., plunged off a bridge on Chappaquiddick Island near Martha’s Vineyard. His passenger, 28-year-old Mary Jo Kopechne, died. Go to article >>
July 18, 1936: Spanish Civil War begins.

Nelson Mandela, S. African leader, b. 1918.
Hunter S. Thompson, writer, b. 1939

‘Rare daylight fireball’ meteor over NYC created loud boom near Statue of Liberty
Reports of a daylight fireball and loud booms across New York City and New Jersey suggest a meteor entered the atmosphere above the city and traveled west at 38,000 mph, NASA says. Read More.

Earth is wobbling and days are getting longer — and humans are to blame
New studies, which utilized AI to monitor the effects of climate change on Earth’s spin, have shown that our days are getting increasingly longer and that our planet will get more wobbly in the future. These changes could have major implications for humanity’s future. Read More.

Astronomers want to change how we define a planet — again
Astronomers are proposing a new, more quantitative definition of what makes a planet. The new definition looks more directly at the object’s mass — but it would still leave Pluto out of the running. Read More.

Magic mushrooms temporarily ‘dissolve’ brain network responsible for sense of self
Psilocybin, the active ingredient in magic mushrooms, reduces the synchronicity within a brain network responsible for reflection and the sense of self. Read More.

Mirage Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas closes after 34 years
The iconic resort on the Las Vegas Strip officially closed on Wednesday. It will reopen in 2027 as Hard Rock Las Vegas, with a soaring hotel tower shaped like a guitar.

Mirage Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas closes after 34 years
The iconic resort on the Las Vegas Strip officially closed on Wednesday. It will reopen in 2027 as Hard Rock Las Vegas, with a soaring hotel tower shaped like a guitar.

The world is drinking less wine
One of the world’s biggest booze makers is ditching most of its wine brands as consumption is falling globally.

RIP Bob Newhart.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, England
A collection of paintings titled Tarot by the actor Johnny Depp are displayed at Castle Fine Art. The paintings reflect chapters in his personal journey
Photograph: Scott A Garfitt/Invision/AP

New York, US
Lightning strikes the water near One World Trade Center with midtown and lower Manhattan in the background, seen from Bayonne, New Jersey
Photograph: Craig T Fruchtman/Getty Images

Antalya, Turkey
‘A boat carrying tourists leaves the Roman harbour against a backdrop of the Western Taurus Mountains.’
Photograph: Harvey Wasserman
Market Closes for July 18^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	40665.02	-533.06
		-1.29%
S&P 500	5544.59	-43.68
		-0.78%
NASDAQ	17871.22	-125.70
		-0.70%
TSX	22726.76	-124.41
		-0.54%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	40126.35	-971.34
		-2.36%
HANG SENG	17778.41	+39.00
		+0.22%
SENSEX	81343.46	+626.91
		+0.78%
FTSE 100*	8204.89	+17.43
		+0.21%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.379	3.345
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.352	3.316
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.2021	4.1576
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.4217	4.3748

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7297	0.7308
US $	1.3704	1.3683

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4936	0.6695
US $	1.0899	0.9175

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2480.25	2443.20
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.85	82.85

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1968, Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore established N.M. Electronics to miniaturize electronic circuitry onto silicon chips. The Mountain View, Calif.-based firm generated $2,672 in revenue in its first year. It would soon change its name to Intel.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.5%, or 124.41 to 22,726.76 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.4%.
Hudbay Minerals Inc. had the largest drop, falling 7.5%.
Today, 151 of 226 shares fell, while 71 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.2% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 21.6% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.8% in the past 5 days and rose 5.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of
its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.63t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.23% compared with 11.10% in the previous session and the average of 11.06% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -57.9855| -2.0| 8/44
Industrials | -21.8835| -0.7| 7/21
Information Technology | -21.6823| -1.2| 1/9
Financials | -13.5705| -0.2| 8/18
Consumer Discretionary | -12.6677| -1.5| 2/11
Utilities | -3.2151| -0.4| 6/9
Real Estate | -1.6902| -0.3| 7/13
Health Care | -1.0824| -1.6| 1/2
Communication Services | 1.5624| 0.2| 3/1
Energy | 2.6216| 0.1| 23/18
Consumer Staples | 5.1838| 0.5| 5/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -18.1700| -2.4| 39.9| -16.1
Teck Resources | -10.3600| -4.9| 34.9| 12.6
Canadian National | -9.1630| -1.4| -15.6| -0.3
Fairfax Financial | 3.2930| 1.4| -38.5| 31.4
RBC | 4.2510| 0.3| 111.2| 14.7
Couche-Tard | 4.7760| 1.2| -50.6| 5.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A weeklong decline in mega-cap technology stocks broadened Thursday to encompass small caps and financial shares as signs of economic weakness overwhelmed optimism over rate cuts.
Almost every major group in the S&P 500 fell.
A rally that drove the gauge to almost 40 record highs this year spurred expectations of a pullback or at least consolidation.
And those calls have grown after a wide array of companies soared in just a few days, outperforming the leaders of the bull market — big tech.
Conviction the central bank is poised to ease back on its battle to subdue inflation has prompted a retreat from mega-cap stocks, which emerged during the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle as a de-facto safety trade due to their steady profits and pristine balance sheets.
In turn, money had been flowing to a broader swath of industrial and staples firms for whom high financing costs posed a bigger impediment.
While every data point that signals the Fed is close to cutting rates would bolster that trade, it wasn’t so much the case on Thursday after a surge in jobless claims showed the US labor market continued to cool.
“Investors have quickly moved from ‘over-crowded’ mega-cap leaders and put money to work in “down-cap” opportunities,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler. “While this makes the case for a broadening bull market, prudence favors pullbacks at confirmed support levels amid improved breadth signals.”
The S&P 500 fell to around 5,545.
Mega-caps were mixed, with Nvidia Corp. up and Apple Inc. down.
The Russell 2000 of smaller firms dropped about 2% after recently hitting its most-overbought level since 2017.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average halted a six-day winning streak.
In late hours, Netflix Inc. extended its lead over the streaming competition, adding 8.05 million customers in the second quarter, crushing its own forecasts and those of Wall Street.
In regular trading, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. closed with a small gain despite a bullish outlook.
Domino’s Pizza Inc. fell the most since 2008 after it unexpectedly suspended its store growth target.
D.R. Horton Inc. hit a record high on solid results.
Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.20%.
The euro dropped on bets the European Central Bank will cut rates in September.
In just a few days, the Russell 2000 rose more than 10%, with most of the rally coming after Thursday’s cooler inflation data bolstered bets on rate cuts.
Small caps notched their best performance over their larger peers in a five-day period ever, Jim Bianco, founder of his namesake research firm, said in a recent X post.
He tracked the difference between the Russell 2000 and Russell 1000 since 1978.
To Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott, the recent “rotation” pushed the broader markets into some moderately overbought territory on a short-term basis.
This alongside ongoing extended conditions in leadership areas renders them vulnerable to potential consolidation over the short run, he noted.
“As pundits start to jump on the ‘rotation is real’ bandwagon, we are cognizant of the threat of potential bull traps ahead,” Wantrobski said. “As we noted last week when the change in trend first began, this rotation is in its very early
stages, and cannot yet be confirmed as a longer-term investment
theme in our opinion. So while we are encouraged by the broadening out of US equity markets most recently, we want to be mindful of any false signals.”
“Certainly, some digestion of the rotation is required after the massive moves of the past trading week,” said Tom Essaye at the Sevens Report. “But whether the rotation can continue will be determined by economic data and earnings.”
While the rotation could continue for weeks as economic data remains mostly “Goldilocks” and tech is still “over owned,” Essaye is not in favor of aggressive allocations to cyclicals for anything other than tactical capital.
“I do remain concerned about economic growth,” he said.  “While the market is convinced lower rates will prevent a slowdown, corporate earnings and Fed commentary continue to imply investors are too complacent when it comes to slowdown risks,” Essaye said.
“As the Fed embarks on a rate cutting cycle, markets tend to cheer it initially and even for a short period after the cuts begin,” said Liz Young Thomas at SoFi. “But if that cutting cycle occurs in concert with slowing economic data,
disappointing earnings, or a quick compression in multiples, small-caps would likely lose steam quickly.”
That’s not to mention, the Fed typically cuts rates late in the economic cycle, not early in the cycle when small-caps tend to have their moment in the spotlight, she noted.
“In the near-term, this rotation into smalls can continue.  Markets are looking forward to easier monetary conditions, and they’re likely to get them this fall. The question is whether that will be followed by a slow and steady cooling in inflation and jobs, or a quick and painful one,” she concluded.

Corporate Highlights:
* SunPower Corp. plunged after the solar company told dealers it would no longer support new installations and was halting shipments.
* PNC Financial Services Group Inc., U.S. Bancorp and Citizens Financial Group Inc. are selling bonds on Thursday, joining the biggest Wall Street banks in tapping the investment-grade debt market after reporting quarterly earnings.
* Apple Inc. is having discussions about licensing more films from major Hollywood studios as it looks to bolster its Apple TV+ streaming service, people familiar with the matter said.
* US shoppers spent $14.2 billion online during Amazon.com Inc.’s 48-hour Prime Day sale, up 11% from a year ago and in line with estimates, according to Adobe Inc.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. is considering separating its streaming and studio businesses from legacy TV, one of several options intended to boost its share price, the Financial Times reported.
* Infosys Ltd. raised its sales forecast for the year in a sign that clients are gradually beginning to boost technology spending, encouraged by a resilient global economy.
* Ford Motor Co. will invest $3 billion to build its highly profitable Super Duty F-Series pickup truck at a plant in Ontario, Canada, shifting focus at the site after previously delaying plans for electric sport utility vehicle.

Key events this week:
* Japan CPI
* Fed’s John Williams, Raphael Bostic speak, Friday
* Canada retail sales

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0898
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2946
* The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 157.37 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.6% to $63,515.8
* Ether fell 0.4% to $3,401.64
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.20%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.43%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.06%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8% to $82.21 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.7% to $2,442.61 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sujata Rao and John Viljoen.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Life isn’t about finding yourself.  Life is about creating yourself. –George Bernard Shaw, 1856-1950.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 17, 1918:Czar Nicholas II and his family, are executed.
July 17, 1955: Disneyland opens its doors for the first time in Anaheim, Calif. Go to article >>

July’s full ‘Buck Moon’ rises this week — and signals a big lunar transition is on the way
July’s full moon — also known as the Buck Moon, the Thunder Moon and the Hay Moon — will be at its fullest on the night of July 21. It’s the last “regular” full moon before a parade of four consecutive “supermoons”
light up the sky. Read More.

Venus of Brassempouy: The 23,000-year-old ivory carving found in the Pope’s Grotto
The palm-sized carving depicts a Neolithic woman wearing an ornate headpiece. Read More.

‘Dark comets’ may be a much bigger threat to Earth than we thought, new study warns
A strange class of space rock known as a “dark comet” has qualities of both asteroids and comets — and the hard-to-spot objects may pose a larger threat to Earth than we thought, according to new research. Read More.

Secret of why Greenland sharks live so incredibly long finally revealed
Surprising new research has revealed why the world’s longest-living vertebrate, the Greenland shark, has such a lengthy lifespan. The findings could have big implications for the species’ future. Read More.

Razor-thin crystalline film ‘built atom-by-atom’ gets electrons moving 7 times faster than in semiconductors
Scientists observed record-breaking electron mobility — seven times higher than in conventional semiconductors — with a material made from the same elements as quartz and gold. Read More.

NASA transmits a Missy Elliott song to Venus
Aiming to serenade the aliens, NASA? It remains unclear why the space agency chose to transmit another song into space — just the second time after they sent a song by The Beatles in 2008.

Drake shows video of flooded mansion
The Canadian rapper shared a video of him wading through what appears to be his waterlogged Toronto mansion after the city was hit by a torrential rainstorm and flooding.

Futuristic designs unveiled for ‘world’s greenest highway’
A Dubai-based company has released conceptual designs for a solar-powered “green” highway that it says could offer more sustainable mobility for the city in the future.

90 giant African snails ‘intercepted’ at Detroit Metropolitan Airport
Authorities were shell-shocked when they discovered dozens of slimy gastropods in a passenger’s bag.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Eindhoven, Netherlands
Spectators enjoy a game of robot football during a practice day in the run-up to the World Cup for Robots: RoboCup 2024. Universities and technology companies from all over the world come to the competition to show what their robots can do in various disciplines
Photograph: Hollandse Hoogte/REX/Shutterstock

The Forest of the Monarchs – grand prize winner
What looks like sunlit foliage on trees are actually millions of monarch butterflies. The only species that migrates to avoid North America’s winter, they fly up to 3,000 miles south to Mexico’s warm and humid Sierra Madre mountains. The butterflies cluster on oyamel fir trees, cozying up to generate warmth and conserve energy as temperatures dip.
Photograph: Jaime Rojo/BigPicture: Natural World Photography Competition/California Academy of Sciences

Stardust Forest – art of nature winner
Fireflies hold particular cultural significance in Japan, where their emergence marks the changing of the seasons and is thought to be a manifestation of the souls of dead soldiers. The floating light trails captured in this photo from Yamagata, Honshu island, were mostly created by male fireflies, which hover and emit frequent bursts of light when courting mates.
Photograph: Kazuaki Koseki/BigPicture: Natural World Photography Competition/California Academy of Sciences
Market Closes for July 17^th, 2024

Market Index	Close	Change
Dow Jones	41198.08	+243.60
		+0.59%
S&P 500	5588.27	-78.93
		-1.39%
NASDAQ	17996.93	-512.41
		-2.77%
TSX	22851.17	-144.22
		-0.63%

International Markets

Market Index	Close	Change
NIKKEI	41097.69	-177.39
		-0.43%
HANG SENG	17739.41	+11.43
		+0.06%
SENSEX	80716.55	+51.69
		+0.06%
FTSE 100*	8187.46	+22.56
		+0.28%

Bonds

Bonds	% Yield	Previous % Yield
CND. 10 Year Bond	3.345	3.353
CND. 30 Year Bond	3.316	3.334
U.S.    10 Year Bond	4.1576	4.1576
U.S. 30 Year Bond	4.3748	4.3721

Currencies

BOC Close	Today	Previous
Canadian $	0.7308	0.7314
US $	1.3683	1.3672

 

Euro Rate 1 Euro=		Inverse
Canadian $	1.4969	0.6680
US $	1.0940	0.9141

Commodities

Gold	Close	Previous
London Gold Fix	2443.20	2421.25
Oil
WTI Crude Future	82.85	81.91

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1995: The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.56 points to close at 1005.89, its first finish above the 1000 barrier.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.6% at 22,851.17 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.8% on July 5 and follows the previous session’s increase of 1.1%.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 148 of 226 shares fell, while 75 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.9%.
Celestica Inc. had the largest drop, falling 10.1%.
Insights
* The index advanced 13% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.6% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 22.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.2% in the past 5 days and rose 5.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.65t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.10% compared with 11.02% in the previous session and the average of 11.01% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -70.2429| -3.7| 0/10
Materials | -40.4310| -1.4| 13/39
Industrials | -19.8268| -0.6| 3/25
Energy | -16.3947| -0.4| 10/29
Consumer Staples | -3.5060| -0.4| 6/4
Utilities | -2.4623| -0.3| 6/9
Consumer Discretionary | -0.8732| -0.1| 7/6
Financials | -0.6913| 0.0| 9/18
Health Care | -0.1858| -0.3| 2/2
Real Estate | 2.2205| 0.5| 14/6
Communication Services | 8.1761| 1.2| 5/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -55.8700| -6.9| 26.7| -14.0
Cameco | -15.7600| -7.4| 16.6| 13.8
Brookfield Corp | -8.2870| -1.3| -50.6| 20.3
Suncor | 6.0210| 1.3| -31.6| 25.3
Nutrien | 6.4630| 2.7| 72.6| -4.3
RBC | 21.9500| 1.5| 40.5| 14.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s largest technology companies got hammered as concern about tighter US restrictions on chip sales to China spurred a selloff in the industry that has led the bull market in stocks.
From the US to Europe and Asia, chipmakers came under heavy pressure. American powerhouses Nvidia Corp., Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Broadcom Inc. drove a closely watched semiconductor gauge down almost 7% — the most since 2020.
Across the Atlantic, ASML Holding NV tumbled over 10% even after the Dutch giant reported strong orders.
A plunge in Tokyo Electron Ltd. led the Nikkei 225 Stock Average lower.
Wednesday’s action reprised a recent trend in which capitalization-weighted indexes underperformed the average stock, a consequence of weakness in the mega-caps that dominate them.
With firms such as Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. each making up 7% of the S&P 500, losses are hard to offset even when most of the index’s constituents are up — as they were today.
The Biden administration told allies it’s considering severe curbs if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML keep giving China access to advanced semiconductor technology.
The US is also weighing more sanctions on specific Chinese chip firms linked to Huawei Technologies Co.
“This news on the chip front is the kind of UFO (UnForeseen Occurrence) that could indeed create the kind of selling that could be the catalyst for a tradable correction in the stock market,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. “Broad indices have become very overbought.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.4%.
The Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since 2022.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” giant companies slipped 3.4%.
The Russell 2000 of small firms dropped 1.1%.
Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — hit the highest since early May.
In late hours, United Airlines Holdings Inc. sank on a bearish outlook.
A pair of chipmakers defied the selloff: Intel Corp. and Globalfoundries Inc.
And the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed for a sixth straight day — notching another record.
Financial shares outperformed, with U.S. Bancorp surging on solid results.
The bond market saw small moves.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book showed slight economic growth and cooling inflation.
The most-notable speaker on Wednesday was Governor Christopher Waller, who said the Fed is getting “closer” to cutting rates, but is not there yet.
The yen led gains in major currencies, up almost 1.5%.
The Biden administration is in a tenuous position.
US companies feel that restrictions on exports to China have unfairly punished them and are pushing for changes.
Allies, meanwhile, see little reason to alter their policies when the presidential election is just a few months away.
“Normally, the impact of these types of headlines isn’t long-lasting, but in this case, we would note that semis have been underperforming the broader market for the last couple of weeks now,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists. “So that’s something to watch.”
The tech underperformance is coming after a first half which saw mega-caps like Nvidia, Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. propel the market higher, stretching valuations for these names and leaving them with a tougher setup for the rest of 2024.
Can the market keep powering ahead without tech?
“Much of this year’s equity gains have come from a handful of names currently under direct threat from the political arena,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “An important question is if the rest of the market, which generally lacks thrilling tales on a relative basis, can offset the waning momentum in ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks.”
At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Scott Rubner says “I am not buying the dip.”
The tactical strategist bets the S&P 500 has nowhere to go from here but down.
That’s because this Wednesday, July 17, has historically marked a turning point for returns on the equity benchmark, he said, citing data going back to 1928.
And what follows, he says, is August — typically the worst month for outflows from passive equity and mutual funds.
Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG says the market is “nearing the end of the typical bullish window.”
Sentiment remains extremely complacent on the surveys and transactional indicators, he noted.
“While the rotation out of mega-cap tech into cyclicals and small-caps is encouraging, it felt a bit forced happening in
such a short period of time,” Krinsky said. “Even if this is going to be a more long-lasting rotation, we likely won’t be able to see that new leadership until after we see a higher correlation correction and then see what leads coming out of that.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. forming an autonomous taxi platform will be the catalyst for a roughly 10-fold increase in its share price, Ark Investment Management LLC’s Cathie Wood said, echoing years of bullish predictions about a business the carmaker has yet to stand up.
* Amazon.com Inc.’s marketing portal for merchants crashed Tuesday night, according to multiple Amazon sellers and consultants, fouling up one of the online retailer’s biggest sales of the year.
* Morgan Stanley became the latest big Wall Street bank to tap the US investment-grade market Wednesday after reporting earnings, as strong investor demand helps lenders borrow at lower yields than would have been possible at the start of the month.

Key events this week:
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing, Conference Board LEI, Thursday
* Fed’s Mary Daly, Lorie Logan and Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
* Fed’s John Williams, Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0936
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3008
* The Japanese yen rose 1.4% to 156.19 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $64,610.01
* Ether fell 0.7% to $3,416.9
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.15%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.08%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.6% to $82.89 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,457.97 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher and Sujata Rao.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Hardships often prepare ordinary people for an extraordinary destiny. –C.S. Lewis, 1898-1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com